The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - How many teams can win the Super Bowl this season?

Episode Date: July 11, 2024

Robert Mays sits down with ESPN’s Courtney Cronin to discuss how many teams can really win the Super Bowl this season. They talk about the no brainers, the teams with the best paths, who could make a jump and those that might get stuck on the outside looking in.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. I wanted to do an exercise that I've done in some form a lot in the last six, seven years. I mean, going back to the Ringer NFL show and when we first started doing that podcast, I think it's instructive this time of year to just look at the teams that we think can win the Super Bowl. And I want to be clear about this.

These are not the teams I think will win the Super Bowl or even have a lot. a great chance of winning the Super Bowl. But if you're stacking up every team that you think has a path to the Super Bowl, a path to getting there and winning it, what would that list look like? It's a really good exercise to go through at this point in the calendar.

And I really enjoyed digging into this with Courtney Cronin from ESPN.com. Courtney covers the Bears for ESPN. Used to be the Vikings beatwriter, but you've seen her on Around the Horn, you've seen her on first take. She does a lot of stuff talking about analyzing the league as a whole.

And I really enjoyed our conversation and how we both pared down our lists. So let's get to it. Joining us now, it is the Chicago Bears writer and, I mean, a whole lot of other things for ESPN at this point. It's Courtney Cronin. Courtney, how are you? I am great. I cannot believe that in nine days from when we are recording, the Bears will have their first availability. I am already having, I guess, foreshadowed fomo over the people who start camp at a normal time,

like July 25th or 26. So it's been a great summer. Thank you for the recommendations for Tokyo. I cannot wait to go back, hopefully next summer and get to expand my, uh, tour across Asia the way that we did with Tokyo, Bali and Singapore.

But it's been, it's been a great summer. It's just now like the mad dash just to get to the start of training camp. So I, uh, I can't believe how quickly it's here again. I feel you on that. I, I'm doing something.

We're doing a little trip next week. for something work-related, and then essentially as soon as I get back, training camp starts. And I actually, selfishly, I'm happy the bears are starting early because the only goal I have with training camps is getting in as many as possible.

So the fact that the bears start a couple days early and I can hit them before starting the rest of my travels, I selfishly am okay with that. I know why that might not be the best situation for you personally, though. It's such a throwback to the times when NFL teams were doing six-week pre-seasoned. You know, that was, you know, when they had four preseason games, but going from

the middle of July all the way through August. And that Hall of Fame game will be fun, I think, just because there's so many storylines, Caleb Williams, what I call three Hall of Famers going in, even though Julius Peppers is going in with Carolina. Like, there's a lot of intrigue around Hall of Fame weekend. You know, we thought Steve McMichael might be able to go, but it doesn't sound like he's going to be making the trip. But still, like, getting to, I'm, I'm so pumped to see what Devin Hester's speech is going to be, who's going to introduce them. Like, there's just a lot of excitement right now. But all of that leading into a season where the expectations are out of control for this

Bears team by some people. Like, you know, as a beat writer, you try to like have a level head and approach about this where you go in and you want to slow play it. But it feels like everybody else wants to go full steam ahead, get to the Tennessee Titans game week one. And just keep it rolling there. Well, I want you to slow down a little bit because we are going to get to those expectations for the Chicago Bears on this show.

As I said in the intro, we're doing a show today that I've done in some form a lot over the last seven to eight years because I just think it's a good preseason exercise and a good precursor to us getting ramped up here over the next couple weeks. We are going to dig in today to the teams we think can win the Super Bowl. Every single team. And this isn't who we think is going to win the Super Bowl, but just a starting point for the teams we think are capable of doing it. it. And I'm excited to do this. I always forget how much I like this exercise and some of the

hemming and hawing that happens with the ones that are at the end of the list. And we're going to dig into that. Some of the teams that were the first ones on, the first one's off. Let's just start on a big picture basis, though. As you were building your list, how did you go about this? So I know that everybody has different criteria. It is July. So everybody's zero and zero and everybody thinks they have a chance to make a deep playoff run and win the Super Bowl. I went about this in a way where I hemmed and hawed for a while. I had like two days of prep for this where I kept taking teams on my, putting teams on my list, off my list.

And I'm like, Courtney, it's a preseason exercise and you're going to get yelled at anyways, like get used to it. But I did this where like I looked at teams that aren't just going to make Super Bowl 59, but have a legitimate shot of winning it. So that probably whittled two to three teams off of my list. I initially started with 13, just like tried to give myself a general basis of like, all right,

this team has a Super Bowl contending roster. This team did a lot in the draft and free agency to put themselves in a good position to contend. But like then trying to find like the real contenders among the big list that I had. So I'm right now at seven, which from 13 to seven, I hacked the hell out of this thing.

And I don't know if I should be proud of that or if that's just like the cynicism in me in July sneaking up right now. All right. So I had 12 teams is what I eventually landed on. And I did not hack that many off. I typically start, when I did this a few years ago, the first time I ever did this exercise,

I want to say it was in like 2017. And the team that always gave me PTSD because I did not have them on my list. and they absolutely could have won the Super Bowl that year was the New Orleans Saints. And the lesson that I learned from that 2017 Saints team is don't let defense deter you. Like this is an offense exercise.

And if you look at history, that drove a lot of how I built my list. I looked at the final four teams over the last decade. So 40 teams that made the final four, made the conference championship game. Of those 40 teams, 35 of those teams finished in the top 10 in EPA. paper dropback on offense.

Having an elite offense and having an elite passing offense is almost a non-negotiable part of this. So that's where I start. Which teams do I think can have an elite offense? There's some pathway to that. And then can they piece together the defense? Is there a chance the defense can be better than we expect? So that being the criteria and some of the teams that made it that didn't have that elite

offense, it's very funny. It's like the 2000, the last year's chiefs are actually one of those teams. And so they have Patrick Mahomes. the 2019 Packers are one of those teams, they had Aaron Rogers. So two of the five teams that didn't have top 10 passing offenses have two of the best quarterbacks the last 20 years. And then we have like the 2015 Broncos, the 2017 Jags, like historically good defenses. So that's pretty much it.

You either have to have a top eight passing offense or some weird stuff happening at quarterback or on defense. So with that in mind, that's how I built it. And that I landed on like 12 teams that I think have some. something adjacent to that criteria, and then we'll have a couple others that, for whatever reason, either did or did not make it on the list. Okay. I like the way that you went about it.

It's a more well-rounded approach to where I'm trying to, you know, right the end of the season before we even get to training camp. And some of it was using past performance to predict future expectations and what if teams are going to be able to meet them. A lot of this stuff right now, because, you know, I'm in New York City. I've got first take this week. And these are like the exercises we have on these shows in the dog days of summer where you have to really think at each roster.

Like, all right, the Ravens, can they learn from their mistakes of the past? Can Lamar Jackson not throw a very critical interception, the AFC championship game when they had them right where they want them? And if like the answer is no, then I have to justify why that is and not just expecting that it's going to be the exact same story that it was last year. But the teams like the teams that I have on my list, I'm looking at it right now on the side of my computer. I've got three that I would classify as no-brainers, like these teams.

Like, everybody should have these on their Super Bowl list. Only three? Mm-hmm. And then I would-hmm. Because then I think you can make a justification for like four, five, and six here to, like, to, like, that would be certainly on everybody's list, but not in that no-brainer category. The no-brainer category to me means go ahead and write them for, like, penciled them in for conference championship weekend already in, I guess, It has to be late January, 2025. But it was hard for me.

Like, I think I took this exercise maybe a little too seriously, but. I like it. I like that your criteria was a little more stringent. Yeah, it was. And, like, I wasn't trying to be that's, I mean, there's reasons why there are certain teams that I left off because I'm like, all right, every year we have this conversation that Dallas Cowboys are a Super Bowl contender for the last three seasons until you can take a 12 win regular season and do something within the postseason.

You're not sniffing my list. So, yeah. I was pretty cutthroat about this one. All right. So you had seven teams total. I had eight teams that I put in my no-brainer category. Because again, to me, this is just, is there a path to it happening? And with that elite offense kind of thing in mind, I had eight teams that I put on my

no-brainer category. Let's start with the three teams that you had just with a bullet, no doubt about it, because I assume that those are also included on mine. Kansas City, San Francisco, and Detroit. those are my three no-brainers, Kansas City, until Patrick Mahom stops playing, until Andy Reid stopped calling offense. I mean, I think that the era that we're in right now with this chief defense and Steve Spagnolo and, you know, the extension for Chris Jones and what that defense meant to them last year,

like I think about that overtime period and how, like, when you get to this stage and the 49ers have been there before. And when you think about the adjustments that Kyle Shanahan did not make offensively, I go to the other side. I'm like, Steve Spagnola was in his bag. And I think we're kind of seeing like the best era of him as a defensive coordinator, kind of like they'll probably put him and Lou Aniromo in that same category of like the best of the best currently. I, that almost weight is heavy to me as having Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reed, Travis Kelsey, and then whatever collection of misfit toys they want to have elsewhere on offense with their wider. receivers. But Kansas City, then you put San Francisco in there. They were the most complete team that, you know, didn't know the overtime rules last year. A couple of strange moments in the whole like not being able to get over the hump identity that is now defined Kyle Shanahan throughout his career. I still have them as a no-brainer because they were the best team in the NFC.

Second best team in the NFC was the Detroit Lions who were a half away from getting to the Super Bowl. So that was my how I went through to determine the three that I had that like, I would have on any list for Super Bowl contenders in 2024. All right. So I had those three teams and then I had a few more teams. But one of the teams I had as a no-brainer, I think, was your last team in. And that was the Baltimore Ravens. Why did you have a little bit of hesitancy about putting the Ravens on here? Because for me, it was no doubt.

Even with some of the questions and I think the questions are legitimate, they were my four team and I didn't really hesitate as I typed it. I go back and forth on this one, and it stemmed from a conversation that we had on first take last week, where we were asked, who were, like, give your list of elite quarterbacks in the NFL. And you think about the word elite, and you look at that as like the upper echelon, like kind of the no-brainer category, and it shouldn't be oversaturated. I had four quarterbacks on my list, and I had Lamar Jackson on my list. And Chris Carlin and I were going back and forth on that. He had two. I had four. Sam Acho had seven. I think he would have thrown in like, you know, five more quarterbacks if he could, but I was trying to like, you know, go like based

on the criteria of what the word meant. So I'm like, if I have Lamar Jackson as an elite quarterback, unanimous MVP in 2019, you know, nearly the same thing this time around when he wins it, you know, an incredible regular season, but coming up short in the playoffs, if I have him still as an elite quarterback, I can't leave the Baltimore Ravens off of, you know, an incredible regular season. I'm of this list of Super Bowl contenders, like serious Super Bowl contenders, not just teams that can get there, but a team that I think that can win.

And I go back to what happened at the AFC championship game last year. Yes, we'll remember the interceptions, the turnovers, and the strip sack, and all the things that went wrong against the Kansas City Chiefs. Did they have them where they wanted them, having them at home?

Yes. Was it a close game? Yes. Did Lamar Jackson want to win this game one way and Todd Munkin want to win the game, his way? Yeah, all of those things are true, but that doesn't mean that this team, despite having some of their coaches and personnel, you know, poach, when you're a good team that happens,

and that's exactly what happened with their run, with their backfield and some of their coaches as well, going to Jim Harbaugh staff in Los Angeles. I still have them as the, you know, it's one A, A, one B in the AFC North with them and the Cincinnati Bengals, in my opinion. and if Lamar Jackson is what we saw from him last year unlocking that new level of passer in this offense, I think one year with Todd Monkin and Jackson and that combination under their belt to figure out where things went wrong. And obviously he got criticized for the use of the run game or lack thereof in the Super Bowl. I think a lot of that's learning from mistakes. And what this defense is and who they've been able to retain, you know, throughout free agency,

what they did in the draft, I still think that they are a team that can make some serious noise in the month of January and then eking their way back to the AFC championship. Me too. I just think that there are too many aspects of the roster

and too many things we saw last year that would give you optimism about where things are headed. Even if the defense is going to take a step back and I think it's pretty obvious that they will. They were the best defense in the league last year. Mike McDonald's a special defensive coordinator. I think they'll be good on defense,

but maybe not the best defense in the league. The hope is you make up some of that gap with an improvement on offense. And I think it's really important when you look at the playoff journey of some of these teams. You're going to stumble early. When you're in the early iteration of who you are as a team, we'll get to this when we talk about a couple of these other teams, it's not a surprise to see things go awry in the

postseason when you don't know where all of your weak points exist. I think that's what the playoffs are for. When you're playing against a guy like Steve Spagnolo, he's going to pick at the things that you're worse at over and over and over again. And when you're in year one of an offensive system, the way that the Ravens were, you really don't have a way to pivot or understand where those weaknesses are going to be when you get to the end of the year. Going from year one to year two is hugely important. And I know that people are going to lump last year in with Lamar's playoff struggles earlier in his career. But to me, this feels like a different thing.

And it feels like going from year one to year two of that offensive system and understanding how to maintain it into the most important games of the year. I have confidence in their ability to do that. So they were pretty easy for me. A couple other teams we both had that we could just knock off right now. You had the Bengals on yours. I had the Bengals as a no-brain or two. I think that with Burroughy, that offense, that still think they could be elite.

The defense was a disaster last year. There's too many examples of them being good on that side of the ball. For me, they just write them off. I think they learned from their mistakes with the safety position specifically. It's got to protect themselves there. So they were on mine. And then we also both had the. Eagles, correct?

Yeah. Mm-hmm. Do you feel okay about that one? I do. Like, that was one where I had them, like, a part of my initial 13, I was, like, trying to, like, rank them to make it easier for myself. I had them at, like, 10, then I had them at 13, and then they moved them back into nine, and then they, like, ultimately got ahead on my list to where I felt confident.

They're going to win the NFC East. I don't think that that's going to be in question. And just knowing, like, could this be a disaster where you take Vic Fan? who we thought it was going to work in Miami and it didn't. And you put him with Kellyn Moore, we thought it was going to work in Dallas. And it did, but there was a bucking of heads there. And, you know, obviously him leaving the Chargers one year with Justin Herbert, the season that Herbert had despite that team being a dumpster fire.

I would like to believe that the pairing there and maybe allowing Nick Siriani to have a little bit more hands-off approach and get out of his own way. Because this is a guy that goes from winning, you know, being in a Super Bowl, then being on the hot seat to making these two decisions to scapegoating, you know, the defensive coordinator to scapegoating Brian Johnson, I think it's got to work because you have two, the roster is too talented. The lines are still, they're older, but they're still really good. They've got some key pieces there, you know, and I know there's been, you know, the Jason Kelsey retirement, all of those things, the defensive line and how old it had been and kind of the rubber meeting the road there with Fletcher Cox, you know, Brandon Graham, all those things.

I still think this is a top 10 offense in the NFL and the safety upgrades that they've made. You know, bringing back CJ Gardner Johnson, all of, you know, and knowing just like how important safety play is in a big Fangio system, I think it's going to be the right pairing, despite it looking potentially combustible. They were a disaster in so many areas last year, especially late in the season. And they trim the flat on that. Like they really, I mean, a lot of scapegoating, but they did what they had to do to make sure that a collapse of that magnitude doesn't happen again.

Agreed. And I just think that they've protected themselves where they needed to. You know, the fact that now they have playable guys at linebacker and safety. They have youth and depth at those positions. I'll be curious to see when it comes down to the most important parts of the season when we're in the playoffs. Who's playing corner for them? Is it the old guys? Is it the young guys? But the fact that they have so many bodies back there, that's an overcorrection from what the

defense looked like last year. And I do think the stabilizing forces in the coordinator, bots, whatever you think of Kellyn Moore and whatever you think of the way that it went for for Vic Fangio in Miami last year, I do think that those guys have been solid enough for things to be stable on both sides of the ball there. And the Kellyn Moore stuff with having an answer against pressure, the dropback game being a little bit more diversified. I do think that they've addressed their weaknesses enough to give them the benefit of the doubt with the talent of that roster to include them on a list like this. So those are six. Chiefs, Niners, Lions, Ravens,

Bengals, Eagles, those are on both of ours. Let me get to to my last one's in because I had more teams than you did. So the last two in in my 12, I had both the Jets and the dolphins. The dolphins, I just think, have too much firepower on offense. And again, going back to the original criteria of how I made the list, if they have a little bit better injury luck around the offensive line, if their defense can be solid in year one of Anthony Weaver, I think the offense has too clear of a path to being really good again to not be included in an exercise like this.

The Jets, it was harder. Because I think that so often, when we were talking about the Jets, and I'm guilty of this, when you're looking at the Rogers acquisition, in my mind, it's like, oh, man, the defense is so good. If they can just be average on offense, then what could they be in the postseason? And if you look at the history of that sort of makeup, there aren't that many teams that have gotten far in the playoffs like that. If you look at it, the 2017 Jags, or a decent example, right, where they have this elite defense, they get to the, the AFC championship game, there are a couple of plays away from going to the Super Bowl. But even that team was 12th in EPA per dropback on offense.

And the fact that Nathaniel Hacco was the offensive coordinator is a very fun, like, little connection point between them. So I do think that path is more narrow than people often give it credit for being. But I still think with Rogers potentially just giving them some sort of functionality on offense, if they can be a top 12 offense and the defense can stay what it's been, there is a path there for them, even if I think it's a lot more narrow than a lot of people are making it out to be

as we talk about this team. The reason I left them off is thinking that there are too many things that need to go right in order for them to, if we're thinking that they're a Super Bowl contender, like, and yeah, you can have two from the same division. You could have Buffalo if you want on there

and you can have the dolphins and you can have the jets. I struggled with that because of, of like where Rogers is right now in his career coming off of the injury, all of the unknowns about his health. Yeah, like we assume, because of what we know about his, you know,

ability to get back on the practice field, that it's all going to be great. The offensive line for the first time, maybe in the last decade, we're not talking about it this time of the year. Like Tyron Smith should be an upgrade for them at left tackle, but it is kind of weird because usually like Dallas isn't going to let a player like that go if they're that great.

So we'll see. But I, I don't know if Nathaniel Hackett, I mean, your criteria, when you were talking about, like, doing this exercise all the way back to 2017 are explosive high powered offenses, do we really think that Nathaniel Hackett can coordinate an explosive high powered offense that's going to take down everybody else in the AFC on their way to playing in the Super Bowl? No. I don't. I struggle there with that. I don't feel good about this, okay? I, this is like, if they have like an 8% chance of this happening.

It's can they do it? And my answer of can they do it is ultimately yes, but I feel less good about them by far than any of the other teams I included here. Also, I have 13 teams because I have the bills and I totally forgot until you mentioned the bills. Yeah, it's they were, Buffalo is a team that I, I mean, like they hacked their roster with because of the salary cap constraints that they had. You know, they traded Stefan Diggs away. I don't think they've gotten better offensively in terms of personnel, but it's, hard to leave a team like that off when we like Joe Brady.

We like what we saw after they made the coordinator switch. Sean McDermott as a defensive play caller might have lapses here and there, but he's still pretty damn good at his job. And of course, if you have Josh Allen, like I will put them in that whole conversation as a playoff team until he's not playing for them. And what we saw last year, like if you can use Josh Allen, like just how powerful of a runner he is, his mobility and the moments like against that, you know,

that Pittsburgh game of his. prowess to take over, they're always going to be in that mix for me. But I just think that, you know, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tredavius White, Gabe Davis, like even some of these got pieces that you think aren't game changers, but are still playing a huge role in what this Buffalo team has been the last three to four seasons. I have a hard time believing that, you know, particularly with the receiving core, like all of those subtractions, is Keon Coleman going to just like make up for it all of himself. I don't believe that. I think they have a great very balanced running game, arguably the best running game in the AFC East. But I, we've asked

Josh Allen to be Superman before and what has it led to like even like last year when they faced the chiefs, a three point, you know, a three point deficit that frankly wasn't his fault. The double overtime game with the Philadelphia Eagles. All of those things put, you know, kind of gave me pause when I was thinking, okay, this team is on my list of teams that can win the Super Bowl, not just make it there. I think with Josh Allen, your opportunities for elite offense are too clear for me to leave them off a list like this. And if you look at that game against the Chiefs, Stefan Diggs was like a non-factor in the last couple games of the season for Buffalo. They took him out of the offense. And they were excellent. They were excellent on offense. And I think that's a combination of

Josh Allen being, in my opinion, the second best quarterback in the lake. If we're making a list of quarterback's. We're talking about a club of elite quarterbacks. He is clearly it for me. I think he is a pathway to good offense. And if you have that, it's kind of like when we say so many things have to go right for the Jets. Not that many things have to go right when you have a player like Josh Allen. And I think they have enough talent at the receiving spots. And I just love their ability to run the ball on their own terms the way that they can right now. So I think when you pair that sort of running game, which they should have again, with a guy like Josh Allen, even with some questions at the receiving spots. I still think there's a better chance than not that they have like a top seven offense this

year. And on the other side of the ball, they had a top 10 defense last year. I know that there are questions about the personnel, but even as guys got hurt last year, McDermott and the players they do have, I think that's stable enough for them to warrant inclusion in an exercise like this. Even if we think it's going to be a slight down year for them, I just think the quarterback and everything else is too stable for me not to have them on here. And I get that. And I believe, like, if you're, and I think that, like, that's where, like, my criteria might have differed a little bit because I'm thinking of teams that, like, you're presenting the path argument. And that's fair for them to get to the Super Bowl.

If it's, you know, for them, that's going to be them getting through Kansas City. Can they do that? They haven't shown. And obviously, like, you know, there was the overtime thing a couple of years ago. But even last year in the divisional playoffs, like, you know, it just until they can show me, they can get past Kansas City. and we'll see, you know, playing them in the regular seasons, who playing them in the postseason, I don't have the confidence that I just can't envision it.

I cannot envision Buffalo taking down Kansas City on the path of the Super Bowl, maybe getting there, but I can't envision them winning on. If they're healthier on defense in that game, I think that game's a coin flip. I mean, you have the one guy, in my opinion, who can really go haymaker for haymaker

with a quarterback who plays for the Chiefs. And you saw it in that game. You know, like the fact that those two guys can really play at each other's, level for those moments. And I saw it in the 2020 Divisional Round game, and I think that you can make an argument that they were right there at the same point in last year's playoffs. So I

just think that that quarterback plus everything else, that's enough for me, even if we think this is going to be a slightly down year for Buffalo. So I actually have 13, and I probably had like seven no-brainer-ish teams, eight no-brainer-ish teams. All right, so who was your first team

off your seven-team? Very, very strict list that you made? I'll give you one and two because there's a, there's a compelling case here, a team that neither of us mentioned that I would, I was kind of surprised was not on your lengthy list, but Houston was number one for me.

Oh, Houston's on my list. Houston's on my list. They just weren't in my no-brainers, but they are on my list. They were my first one off, and there's a couple of reasons for that. First off, I think, how does C.J. Stroud look after defensive coordinators

around the league have now had a year of tape on him to game plan for. Yes, This receiving core has, you know, they have Stefan Diggs now, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, like, they're stacked. The offensive line played a huge role in how impressive his first season was. And I think defensively, you bring in DeNeil Hunter, DeNico Autry, you pair that line, you know, that side of the line with what Will Anderson showed in his rookie season. That should be a damn good team that should win the AFC South. Notice they said should. Are they going to?

Is Indianapolis going to surprise us? and have a 10-win season, nine-win season, and all of a sudden we're looking at Houston as the second-best team in that division. It's a fun exercise to play out, but that's why I was just, I still feel like they might need another year to get there. And it's really no knock on anything that's,

Domech, Bobby Sloick, like, you know, keeping that core together will help them get there, which is probably why, I mean, I don't think anybody would have put Detroit on the Super Bowl list last year, but now that they have that, experience and that like severe heartbreak that you have to like a to to to to learn from but now you're going to get everybody's best shot i think houston will soon be in that category they're just not there for me right now and ultimately like i just i think that there are teams when i think about

the afc that i'd have to put four or five ahead of where houston is right now before i'm willing to lump them in with kansas city with cincinnati with cincinnati with Baltimore and even potentially Buffalo, which is why both of them were off of my list. I don't know. I feel pretty good about them. In an exercise like this, I think the weaknesses,

I think there's more questions about them just because we've had less exposure to them than some of these other teams. But you look at what they were on offense last year, and they were so, so explosive throwing the ball. And I think that when you combine that ability and that gear, which they've already shown, and now they have Stefan Diggs and a quarterback,

going into year two. I think that some of the quieter elements of the offense give them more consistency than they had last year. The offensive line was one of the most injured offensive lines on record if you look at adjusted games lost. I mean, the bodies, they were moving in and out of there, and you got backups playing center, you got your starting center from before the season playing guard for you, having more health luck up front and having that potentially lead to better efficiency running the ball. I think there's a clear path to that. And then you combine it with the explosiveness they show when they drop back to throw the football.

And I just think that going into year two, if you've shown me that your quarterback and your play caller are good and then you've made additions and improvements at areas of your personnel, that's enough for me. I'm good. You've shown me everything you need to do.

The defense, that's the biggest question from last year. I like the pieces that they've added. I think having more juice up front, a little bit more stability at linebacker, all of those things. To me, I think that the component parts are there, even if we haven't necessarily seen them do it to the degree

that we've seen it and for as long as we've seen it with some of the other teams you mentioned in the AFC. Yeah. And then my other one that I had left off just snuck out was the team that they ended up beating in the first round of the playoffs, which was Cleveland. And

it's hard because of how talented this team should be. And again, this is all based on projection, but why am I going to put a quarterback who's in a do or die, make or break season, three years into his time in Cleveland. And yes, he played six games the last two years. But on top of that,

we have not seen the Deshawn Watson of Houston 2020, Deshawn Watson. I had a hard time justifying putting Cleveland on my list with as many question marks as they have at the most important position. But then additionally, like, what does Jerry Judy look like here? Is he motivated? Is he going to be a better playmaker than he was in Denver? you know, Amari Cooper, all of Elijah Moore.

Like, do I really like this receiving core? Do I think that Nick Chubb's going to be healthy? What about the, like, the exit of Bill Callahan, you know, best offensive line coach in the league? That's a huge reason for pause when I think about how dominant this Cleveland team can be, showed it was with a backup quarterback, taking them to the playoffs, winning games with four different quarterbacks last year. There are too many question marks for me to feel good about putting Cleveland

in the contender category, like serious contender category just yet. But I thought those two timed up kind of nicely because of what we saw in that first playoff game where, you know, Houston ends up taking down an experienced Cleveland team that I don't think we thought they were ready to do up until that point, not just taking it down, kicking the crap out of them. I had Cleveland off my list. They were one of my first teams off, so we're on the exact same page there. I just don't think you could have the same faith in the ability of the defense to carry

them the way that they did last year. If you look at history, they're going to take a step back. And that's not even a knock on them. Math and everything we've ever known about defensive football would lead you to believe that they're not going to be the same type of team they were last year. They had the 10th best defensive success rate of the past 20 years last year. If you look at what they did on a down-to-down basis, we're talking about teams like the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 bucks, the 2009 jets, the 2005 bears.

It's really, really hard. to do that two years in a row. So if we move from historic to merely very good on defense, which is probably the step they're going to take, I don't have faith in the offense to make up enough of that ground to include them here.

Because if you look at what they were in 2022 with Jacoby Percette, this is still a version of the Brown's offense that was elite running the football. They were top five in rushing success rate. They were up near the top of the league and EPA per rush, like top six or so. And last year, they were 20th

in some of those same categories. And some of that is Nick Chubb. Some of that is backup tackles who were markedly worse run blockers than the guys who were supposed to be starting. But who knows what Nick Chub is going to look like when the season starts. Do we even know if he's coming back in September?

Exactly. Or is in the first half of the year. Like, we don't know that stuff. And so if you can't lean on that run game, I just don't believe that Watson is good enough at this stage of his career coming off another season where he pretty much didn't play, He didn't play a majority of the games for me to have faith in this team

and this offense carving a path through the AFC when you look at the other offenses and quarterbacks are going to have to play against. And you look at their own division. I mean, we were talking about Buffalo or, you know, the Ravens, then Buffalo, then, I mean, let me not forget to put Cincinnati in there.

Like, where does that leave Cleveland? And we played this game last year where most people had Cleveland, you know, off on its own, at its own plane. And then they end up making the playoffs. Of course, we couldn't have predicted the injuries that would have happened to Joe Burrow. But that division is going to be brutal.

And if you are trying to project who makes the Super Bowl based out of the AFC North, you've got to leave somebody off because four teams aren't going to have. I mean, it may be fun to, like, project a clear path for them right now. I think that Cleveland's is the cloudiest based on the biggest question mark that they've had now for two seasons. And what does he look? What does Sean Watson look like in game? Can he be the Deshawn Watson of the second half of that Ravens game that we saw, the game that ultimately knocked him out for the rest of the season?

I believe it was week 10 last year. The guy who has a disastrous, you know, a disastrous first half. And of course, you know, you can blame play calling. It's funny how like that whole thing went last year. Kevin Spanke ends up winning coach of the year. There's all these question marks about the offense at a certain point before, before they ultimately had to shut Deshawn down for the year. but do you get that version of him from the second half where he's being smart with the decisions that he's making,

making clear, concise, quick decisions, short throws, accurate throws over the middle of the field, like versus the Deshaun Watson, who has very clearly felt like he's needed to put way too much on him to go win games the way that he did in Houston. I just, I can't justify thinking that this team is ready right now to win a Super Bowl, despite the fact that they kind of need to be. And also, like, how's his shoulder look? Health is always going to be a question, and just comfort, I think, is going to continue to be a question. I'm on record with an AFC North Pod,

maybe a month ago, that that game against Baltimore is not as impressive as people have made it out to be. If you're attaching yourself to the guy he was in the second half, and that's the example that you're using of how he's going to lift them. I know, and that's why they're on my list, because I'm like, that's too, he had two good games. Like, maybe like one in a, One and a half, like one and a half good games last year, including that second half against Baltimore where they come back to win.

I don't have confidence in what he's going to become because we're now four years removed from his last great season when he was on a crappy team and still put up numbers. Can you uncover that again? Or is the rust factor, the age factor, injuries, attrition, all of those things are too much for me to just like chalk up. up to, no, we're going to get the version of Deshaun Watson that they thought they thought they thought they were going to get when they traded for him, that they thought was going to have already led them to a Super Bowl by now. And very clearly, like, they're still holding out hope that that can happen. I am not one of those people who believes that that will happen. I've said that I don't think that guy, or even a decent chunk of that guy is ever coming back.

And I, if I'm wrong about that, I'm wrong about that. But that's just how I feel watching who he's been over the last couple of years. And I, you know, structurally on offense, I don't think that this is a team that has done all the right things all the time. And if you look at the staff turnover they've had on that side of the ball, I think it's indicative of that. They went out and got Kat and Dorsey and they moved a couple other pieces around. I think

that they just wanted better ideas for the dropback game within that building because they didn't have enough answers over the last couple years. And as they try to merge the Deshawn Watson shotgun-based RPO world with Kevin Stefanski's background, I think that there were a couple, it was uneven.

It was a little bit choppy at times I think they understand that they still have to bridge that gap a little bit. So I don't think the staff is necessarily blameless. But even if you're putting him consistently in the best possible spots, I still don't think that's good enough when you're stacking him up and stacking this offense up with the other teams they're going to have to beat. So I was right there with you. One of the other teams I have in my first ones out,

the Jags, like, I just think that it's there. Like, it's the guy pointing at the mirror meme. Like, they can do it. Like, it is there. I still, it's hard. for me to give that up because I do think that there is a pathway with some regression on offense. I tweeted this earlier today.

They were 9th in dropback success rate last year, but 17th in EPA per dropback. And that's just fumbles sacks. Fumbles, sacks, lack of explosive plays. I do think that they can get there with better offensive line play, hopefully this year, and just a more

streamlined, better identity on offense. Last year was Pruss Taylor's first year as a play caller. Going into year, I'd do think that there's probably a better sense for who they want to be and why and making up for some of those issues that they had last year. But I still need to see it. I still need to see it with this construction before I'm willing to put them on a list like this. My last one, and this is a team that you obviously understand very well before we get to that, it is now time for a segment delivered to you by Pizza Hut called the Taste of Chicago. Chicago Tavern-style

pizza is the true pizza of Chicago. Not that deep-dish stuff. That's for tourists. Courtney, you're a Chicagoan, like me. You can attest to this that the majority of pizza we eat is actually a thin-cut tavern-style pizza. Squares over triangles. And I'm not a deep-dish gal either. When I, the day after Roma Dunesay and Caleb Williams were drafted, I had a quick one-on-one with them. And I asked them because it's an important question, like tavern-style or deep dish. And Caleb immediately, without even like pausing for a second, deep dish, I'm like, what a

disappointing answer. Have him call me and we'll go on a pizza tour of Chicago. There's just so much good pizza that you don't need to like go the route of having a casserole every single time you want to slice. And I hope he will learn. I mean, he's young. He's young. And it's, you know, it's a good politically correct answer to feed into all the meatheads in this market. But I think over time he will learn that tavern style is superior. And again, Chicago Taverstableness pizza is the true pizza of Chicago, as Pizza Hut will tell you. But this is all leading to me saying that the Chicago Bears are one of my first teams off. And the reason I had to do this, or felt like I had to do this, is twofold.

One, you mentioned just the drumbeat of excitement about where this team is. And the other thing that I thought was crazy, if you look at the Super Bowl odds right now, the Bears have the same Super Bowl odds as the Rams. They have better Super Bowl odds than the Browns. They are 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl right now. The teams ahead of them, okay, we have. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. 13 teams. So they are 14th in Super Bowl odds.

So if I'm going to have a list of 13 teams, they are kind of one of the first teams off. But I just think that, again, the path is too narrow. And if you look at the history specifically of rookie quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks who've won playoff games, I knew that it was bad. I didn't realize it was this bad. There's only been like four guys since 2000 who have won. won a playoff game as a rookie. Last year we had CJ Stroud do it.

Before that, T.J. Yates, in 2011, Russell Wilson in 2012, Joe Flacco in 2008, and Penn Rothesberger in 2004. And if you look at, and that's, even that list, the, how they did it is very specific. Both Roblesberger and Russell Wilson finished dead last in passing attempts in the years that they went to the Super Bowl. Ben Rothesberger threw the ball, or the Steelers through the ball, 416 times in 2004.

No team in the NFL last year had fewer than 541 dropbacks. So you just can't hide your quarterback to that extent anymore in the modern NFL. And even if we think Caleb Williams is going to be good, and even if we think he's being dropped into a situation that's better than it is for most rookie quarterbacks and certainly most quarterbacks drafted number one overall, there's just a reason this doesn't happen. You don't have enough time on task. You don't, again, understand your weaknesses enough.

I think that the Bears have a chance to be good. They have a chance to be exciting. But Super Bowl worthy, we're just not going to get there in year one. Can we just wait to see if they win a playoff game first? They haven't won one since 2010. I mean, to me, that's where the conversation just stops, like, to a screeching halt. And in their division, we know that Detroit and Green Bay are ahead of Minnesota and Chicago. and I'm really curious to see how the finish goes for three and four.

I don't think that the bears are there just yet. However, can they get to nine wins? There's an absolute path for that, but that still might not put them in the playoffs. If the NFC, as we know, was so top-heavy last year, feels like the talent's much more spread out to where it could play out to where you've got, I don't see this happening. But if, let's say the nine-10 win thing happens,

that you could get three teams out of the NFC North, like that's almost unheard of. And I think because it feels so far-fetched for as improved as the bears were from the second half of last season to where they are now, to go out and get an absolute security blanket in Keenan Allen for Caleb Williams right away before drafting Roma Dunes. The receiving core is light years ahead of where it was last year, where it was DJ Moore and then everyone else. And everyone else is like kind of putting it nicely because there were literally no contributions for anybody. else. I don't think they, I don't think they're ready to have a team that, I mean, could this defense carry them to a playoff, like to a playoff birth and a deep playoff run? Yeah, and in a great

world it could. I don't think it's carrying them to a Super Bowl, though, in year one and Shane Waldron's offense and all that's going to, all that we're going to find out about how this scheme, which, if we're being honest about this, like, was it really that great in Seattle last year, the last Three seasons, no, it wasn't. It was very similar last season and a lot of metrics to where the Bears finished. However, the talent upgrades should make this offense appear a little bit more explosive, tongue-in-cheek there than it was at least the last couple of years in Chicago, which should look a lot better, but I don't think it looks Super Bowl better.

I'm with you. And I think that the offense has a chance to be a top 12-ish unit if things go really well. And that's what Seattle has been over the last few years. And if the Bears have a diet version of the season that the Texans had last year, and they make the playoffs and they either potentially win a playoff game as a wildcar team

or they're competitive in a playoff game as a wildcard team. That's a win. That is absolutely a win. Everybody should be thrilled about that. And I think that's okay.

In year one of like after an arduous rebuild the last two years where we're wondering, it's hilarious now. I don't know if you saw the odds the other day about Iber Fluse being

potentially coached the year. The guy was on the hot seat was almost getting fired in January now we're calling him like a head coach of the year candidate in the preseason, that's wild. If they, if the path that you just laid out for them to win a playoff game happens, this year is a wild success. Like I still think that even that is probably maybe put in the cart before the horse a little

bit too much, but they have the pieces offensively to be a much more balanced unit than we've seen as they've tried with their last two first round quarterbacks and the upgrade at quarterback in and of itself is a major reason for that. But you've got two very capable tight ends. You've got a thousand, you know, three thousand yard receivers in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Roma Dunezay. The offensive line is still, you know, this giant question mark with this team. I've, you know, I've been asked by a couple of bears fans, hey, is this Bakhtiari rumor potentially going to find its way to play out? Are they going to replace, are they going to sign him and replace Braxton Jones? Could that?

potentially swing things, I still don't think so. I still, to have the expectations that a rookie right away, we weren't talking about C.J. Stroud in the same respect. And yeah, the Texans were a three-win team before what happened last year when they draft Stroud, they draft Will Anderson and they all of a sudden win a playoff game and do so in dominating fashion. The Bears will be a lot better than they were last year. And seven and ten at the end of last season is something that they felt good about.

I don't think, though, that it's going to go seven and ten to representing the NFC in the Super Bowl when you think about how many other teams that have way more experience than the Bears. The experience factor alone is enough to, like, kind of close the book on that one for me in 2024. The Bactarian thing feels silly to me. If you were going to replace Baxter Jones, you should have spent the ninth overall pick on an offensive tackle and there are several of them available. And with the Texans part of this, I think that the unknown of Bobby Sloick actually was more intriguing than what we know what. Shane Waldron is. Shane Waldron has done a solid job, but the Texans had a guy

we've never seen do this before, and it's very good at it. You know, it's a guy who's going to be in the conversation for head coaching jobs if it keeps going that way on offense for Houston. So I'm with you on that. And on the defense side of this,

if you look at defenses that have carried teams to playoff wins, to play off success, these are defenses that have dominant pass rushes, like truly dominant game-swinging pass rushes.

And we've talked about a couple of those examples. 2017 Jags are in that. 2015 Broncos are the best possible example of that. Even a team like the 2019-9ers, it was the front that ended up dominating and swinging

games for them. Even if you're encouraged about the Bears' defense, that's not the type of defense we're talking about in terms of talent or style. So I still feel like it's going to be harder

for that defense to carry them to that sort of success late in the season, even if I do think the defense has a chance to be pretty good. And the style part, I am glad that you, brought that up just because they want to get pressure with their four down linemen. And that's, that's great. But like, who's playing opposite Montez Sweat that you're confident being like

that big of a piece? He's not on the roster yet. Yeah, I think that person's still sitting out there rehabbing from his ankle surgery and his name's unique in Gokwe. And maybe we saw like a little bit of that three, the three games, I think it was three before he got injured against Detroit, that the combination of him in sweat, but I still don't know if that's, if that's, if that's as forceful enough of a pass rush to be able to like rely upon that and not put everything on your rookie quarterback in the offense to get your team on a deep postseason run. All right. That was a taste of Chicago brought to you by Pizza Hut.

If you want to try our spin on thin crust that's full of flavor, airy, crispy, and pack with new recipes, try Pizza Hut's Chicago Tavern style. All right. The last couple categories I want to hit here. The first of which is who is a spicy one that you. put on your list that you actually felt good about that you feel like maybe other people wouldn't have as much confidence about? I would say, I think putting Philly in there, because let's not look at it. They got to the Super Bowl two years ago, and much of this roster is the same.

I mean, the secondary aside, and I do think that they've made some upgrades there, especially at the safety position. But I just, I think that if you think of like what happened last year and the collapse that they had, really starting with that Jets game, where it's like, okay, what is this Jalen Hertz? What version of Jalen Hertz you get this year? I don't think it's going to be like that hard for him to find the MVP candidate version of himself from two seasons ago. I think this offense will be just fine.

Devante Smith, A.J. Brown, the offensive line is still in pretty solid shape. And like we mentioned earlier, you know, on the flip side of that, the defense of the trenches are good on defense. They've made upgrades at linebacker. I think Vic Fangio, with the tools that he's going to have within this defense, we'll be able to do some of the things he wasn't able to do in Miami, and maybe that's, you know, personalities clashing, not being able to have the freedom. I mean, certainly there were injuries, obviously with Jalen Ramsey and all of those things. But I do, I can understand why people would look at that and say, you have the Eagles on your list, but you don't have the Dallas Cowboys. And for what we've seen,

in the last couple of seasons, 12 win seasons, making into the playoffs. I can understand someone trying to justify Dallas over Philly here, but I think Philly's a better team. I think Philly's going to win the NFC East. And of any of my other, if any of my picks up, he's like, I don't know, I would, I don't think Green Bay is spicy. They had to, they went down to Dallas and kicked the crap out of the Cowboys and had a terrific win. And, you know, if it wasn't for the second half and, you know, the, the, the, the, the,

Brett Farr, this is not Detroit, man, throw. that Jordan Love made against the San Francisco 49ers, then we're probably talking about just probably a different story with what Green Bay could have done last year. But they're not spicy to me. It's me that's more of a lock than anything else. So I guess if I had to pick one that might have a little zest, it's going to be Philly because it's going to be controversial.

I had Green Bay as one of my spicier ones. I guess it's just like the confidence I had putting them on. I think other people may not throw it on with that sort of gusto. But I didn't have any hesitation. I thought, I was like, all right, yeah. Like this team was really good on offense. by the end of last season. They finished third

in EPA per drop back last year. And they were, their inconsistencies, they were not nearly as good down to down as some of these other really good offenses. And I think part of that is just the stops and starts

they had in the first half of the year with Jordan Love. He played much better in the second half of the season. But you look at what he was by the end. I like the past catchers. I think Matt LaFleur is great. If the core of this is,

do you have a path to elite offense and you can make up some of it on defense, I think for them it's absolutely yes. And the other team I had was the Rams because I think the same thing goes for the Rams to a slightly lesser extent because I think the Packers have a clearer path to significant improvements on defense than the Rams do. I really like the personnel Green Bay has, especially at certain position groups.

Like, their front to me is just really good. And so now you bring in a new defensive coordinator with Jeff Affleck coming in, stylistically, mindset-wise. I'll be curious to see what that looks like. I don't necessarily think they have the same level. of talent that Cleveland has on defense. I know they don't. But if I was going to pick one defense that could make a significant leap, like out from the

bottom 10, the bottom quarter of the league to top 12, top 10, it would be Green Bay just because I think they have enough talent on that side of the ball to justify it if they're deployed in a slightly different way. And I think that kind of applies to what the Browns were last year. Is it in like the discrepancy on defense for them for like past defense, 31st and interceptions last year, ninth in yards. I would like to think for as much as we think about the strength of this Packers team being many of the players in their secondary, I would like to believe that a change in play caller will not lead to the weird stuff that we saw from Jair Alexander last

year and lead to guys being put in better situations to where you don't have this soft pre-vent defense in really critical moments in games that I just, I think that Joe Barry, kind of ran, you know, that thing ran its course and it ultimately led to them, like, because the issues weren't on offense or not offense from last year. Like, they may not have the biggest names at receiver from like Jaden Reed all the way down to, you know, Christian Watson, if his, if his hamstring can stay healthy. But they still got a solid core where your top two receivers are going to be getting, you know, the lion's share of targets.

And then on top of that, the trickle down effect and then what you're using your tight ends for, I think they're good. swap out, you know, one star running back for another, bringing Josh Jacobs in there. I think they're going to be a very complete balanced offense. And Jordan loves a superstar. Like, we, we knew this was probably going to happen as people in Chicago who, you know, watched the Green Bay Packers get this right. We were the first ones to see it.

Seen it up close for 30 years. And I, in one season, am confident in, you know, a lot of that is Jordan Love and the talent alone. but the combination of him and Matt LaFloor, it works. And that's why I had no hesitation in putting them on my list. Like they weren't in my, what do we say, the no-brainer category, but as a Super Bowl contender, they're on there. Yeah, I felt good about it.

And the defense, Jayre Alexander played seven games last year. Eric Stokes has hurt the entire season, essentially. You better health at corner. I don't think that's as much of an issue as some people thought coming into the off season. Again, I really like the defensive front. They added multiple bodies at safety and linebacker

to try to just shore that up a little bit. And I think a defensive change in play caller, we've seen this. We've seen how much that can make up for a team and how much that can do for a team when you've got the right bodies over there, but they just haven't necessarily been deployed in the right way. And I think the Packers do potentially fall into that category.

People can also say that, like on the opposite of that, when you take a look at defensive play callers, who goes the other way and what that does to your team, I'm thinking of the 49ers in the second half of the Super Bowl last year. That's a great point. The Niders are too good overall for me to be worried about that in terms of including them on a list like this. We could talk about the ceiling and whether they ultimately do it, but I think that they're pretty clearly in here. The Rams for me, again, I just think that the pathway to an elite offense is clear.

They were fifth in EPA per dropback on Stafford's snaps last year when he was on the field. Their offensive line, they've added to it. They're leaning into a version of their offense that if they can lean on the run game and you combine that with the explosiveness they have throwing the football, all they need to do is cobble together the right sort of defense. That's hard. You're living in an errandonaldist world. You have a new defensive play caller and Chris Shula.

You're going to be relying on so many young players. But this gets back to what we talked about at the beginning. I can't let that deter me anymore. Like, I can't let, oh, well, they might have the 25th best defense. I can't have them on here. I've been burned by that too many times in the past when doing this exercise. So that's why even if they're at the bottom of the list, I'm still going to throw them on there. I had a hard time with them because I, you know, Stafford at this point of his career, the injury history.

Yeah, I have to take that into account, but it's still Matthew Stafford, somebody who went to a Super Bowl and won a Super Bowl a couple of years ago with Sean McVeigh as his play caller. And yeah, you can argue that a big part of that reason they won the Super Bowl is not in Los Angeles anymore. That's fine. With Aaron Donnell retiring, I thought they made some good draft picks, Raiden Fist. Jared Verst was their first round pick. I don't know if that's going to put them in Super Bowl category, but I'd like to think that they at least went out and addressed the pieces that they needed defensively

to where if the offense with Pooka Nakua, with Cooper Cup, and with Matthew Stafford, because remember we were so top-heavy last year, we thought that it was just going to bottom out and it was going to be like their stars and no one else. They were still a playoff team. Yeah, and their defense was okay last year. It wasn't great, but it was okay.

It was mid. Like, their defense was very mid last year, And I think that it's hard to say a defense is better when Aaron Donald isn't there, especially your pass rush and the way that he can just take over a game. But I like the, I really do give them a lot of credit for the additions that they made up front in, uh, in the draft. And I do think that it might take a year or two, which then again, you're talking about timelines and what's Matthew Stafford at that point, who was your quarterback at that point.

Um, that's invented at that point. I don't know. Like, but I'm not, I'm not quite there yet as far as in 2022, for thinking that they are true Super Bowl contender based on, you know, based on kind of really a lot of it's more of the other teams than the NFC that I have ahead of them. If your quarterback can get hot for the right stretch, it helps you in an exercise like this. And we've seen Matthew Stafford to get hot for that sort of stretch. And I'm with you.

I think that even if Aaron Donald is gone, the way that they've tried to piece together other areas of the defense, I think Kobe Turner was great last year. So you know, Kobe Turner, Bryant Young, Braden Fist, Jared Versa, front. you look at the secondary going out and getting, we'll see what happens with Trey White Healthwise, but Darius Williams, guys like Gam Kural, I just think that the explosive plays and some of the lapses in the secondary specifically last year

was one of their biggest issues. And I think the pieces that they've added and throwing bodies at the problem at virtually every level of the defense, I have faith that overall the unit can maybe be improved even with you take Aaron Donald out of it, which I know sounds crazy. Two other teams that I kind of just wanted to

mention because even if I didn't have them on my list, I kind of wanted to. And I do think they have a better chance and a better path than some of the teams ahead of them in the Super Bowl odds. One was the Colts. Like if I told you that Anthony Richardson was that next second year quarterback to take that massive jump that we've seen in the past, like the Lamar Jackson 2019 MVP leap, would you be shocked by that? No, I wouldn't.

And it was like all of the unknowns. last year were, you know, are still things that we have to answer based on the injuries. And if he can, I think Shane Steichen has him in a good spot where he knows the balance of relying on his arm versus the mobility aspect and not putting him in harm's way. You, you, you had a small sample size of it last year, but even in, was it, four games, you saw the promise there with Anthony Richardson. And even with like not a great receiving core around him and, you know, relying. so much on the running back that was the story for them, like all training camp last year.

Is he? Is he not? Like, you know, be here. They end up paying him. And it's still, I think it's almost like they're a team that like when, when Anthony Richardson is healthy, like the plug and play aspect is what I'm excited about. Okay, what can this team actually be now? Because I'm with you. I think about the second year quarterback leaps and the ones that we've seen over the last couple of years. Can he rise into that category? If he does, then they very well, which is why I had issues with Houston, they very well could win the AFC South if Anthony Richardson is able to,

like he has that capability. The component parts are there. If you have a good play caller, a guy that's consistently creating a beneficial offensive ecosystem and you have a quarterback with a lot of talent and you have a good offensive line, they just check enough boxes where the leap is potentially on the table for me. And I think their defense is good enough,

in part because their defensive front has a lot of talent on it. So I didn't include them, but I thought they were worth mentioning. And the other one for me is just I can see it with Seattle, right? Like I can't put them on here, but I could see the offense with Ryan Grub and that offense coming from Washington, with Gino playing at the level he's capable of, the skill position talent, they still have a little bit more health up front. If you told me by the end of the year, they finished top five in efficiency metrics on offense, throw in the football. It wouldn't be shocking to me. And again, if that's a prerequisite to this, and now you have arguably the best defensive play caller in the,

the league to lift what you are on the other side of the ball. I can't put them in here, but they were a team that at least crossed my mind before I left them off. I'm really excited to see what Mike McDonald brings to the Seattle. And what that, what that, can that defense get, not saying it's going to get anywhere back to Legion of Boom style or capability of that. It's a different era and there's different players for obvious reasons. But I'm really excited to see what Seattle, like they were, they had moments last year.

like they really know I feel about I think about that Monday night football game against Philadelphia and like the back and forth nature and what that receiving core Jackson Smith and Jigba DJ, excuse me, DK Metcalf. Like if with a new offensive play caller, do those guys get unlocked a little bit more than they were last year? And even then, we still saw moments where they broke through. That to me makes them a very dangerous team. The last team we have to talk about here because there's a team that was on my list and not on yours and you alluded to this a couple different times. I had the Cowboys, and I understand the scars that have come up over the last couple of years. And I've said this. I don't even want to talk about them until after Thanksgiving or maybe even after Christmas

because it feels like wasted energy to even discuss them before we get to that point. But to me, the offense and the quarterback have been too good in stretches for me not to include them here. And I think Mike Zimmer will see what happens, but this is a team that's been one of the best defenses in the league consistently. over the last few years. So even if I have my doubts about them, I still had to put them in here. There's too much chaos going on with them right now for me to feel good at all.

And I remember seeing the odds on ESPN bet the other day thinking, okay, like I get why we had this question. We were talking about this on first take. And the way that they phrased it was, would you be shocked? They used the word shocked if the cowboys made, if the cowboys went to the Super Bowl last year. And I said yes.

And yes, this is a talent. talented roster, but think about how many guys are still sitting out there waiting for contracts. You usually, unless you're the Kansas City Chiefs, and I understand the whole Chris Jones thing might be the outlier here, but they also have Patrick Mahomes, their quarterback. You usually aren't a Super Bowl team if you have all of these like weird things floating around that are all self-inflicted, which by the, you know, meaning like by the team self-inflicted with potential holdout from CD Lamb, Dak Prescott hasn't been paid, Zach Martin. And then on top of that, Mike McCarthy's going into a do-or-dieer, apparently.

You can't tell me that that's not a recipe for a combustible situation in Dallas. And I'm excited to see what Zim does with, with Micah Parsons. I don't know if it'll, you know, of course, my mind, just having been so close to the Vikings for five seasons, like can he get out of Micah Parsons what he thought he was trying to get out of Anthony Barr all of those years, like his project, his, you know, his premier draft pick. Michael Parsons is a much different player than Barr at the outside linebacker position, defense van, however you want to classify him.

Does Parsons buy into that in the role that Zim could potentially use him to take this defense to becoming the top defense in the league? He could earn a defensive player of the year if it actually works out, but I don't know. And that's what like has me held up on putting the Dallas Cowboys anywhere into the mix of teams that are going to win the Super Bowl because they've just disappointed us. far too many times. They shouldn't have won that game against Detroit at home in the end of the regular season.

And obviously we saw what happened to them, like getting their butts kicked and that defense getting their butts kicked against Green Bay in the playoffs. So 12-win seasons are great, but until that actually like amounts to something, I'm not putting them anywhere close to a Super Bowl category. I can't blame you for any of that. And I can't really disagree with any of that. But if I'm going by the criteria I was going by, I have to put them in here, even if I don't feel even slain. slightly good about it. But that is the end of my list. So one more time, run through your seven teams that you think

can win the Super Bowl. Kansas City, San Francisco, Detroit, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. My 13 teams. Chiefs, Niners, Lions, Ravens, Bengals, Bengals, Bills, Eagles, Texans, Packers, Cowboys,

jets, Dolphins, Ramps. So those are our lists. I'm sure I won't look super dumb when a team that wasn't even close to making this ends up getting to and potentially winning the Super Bowl. Courtney Cronin sincerely appreciate it. Please tell everyone where they can read, listen, just

get in touch with all the things that you're doing right now. Sure. Everything I've got is up at ESPN.com. I'm going to have so, you know, Bears start in nine days, as we said at the top of the show. So lots of content coming there is they get right into the thick of training camp

and I will be on first take, get up, and a bunch of shows throughout from New York the next couple of weeks, which I'm really excited about as we kind of get to start doing this exercise more frequently as we get ready for training camp and then ultimately seven, eight weeks from now for week one. I will see you at House Hall in 11 days

because that's where we are in the calendar. So it's time. It is very much time. Even if I'm looking at about 20, like essentially three straight weeks on the road, I'm very much looking forward to it because getting to have those conversations and being around football again, one of my favorite stretches of the entire calendar.

So Courtney Cronin, very much appreciate the time. We'll talk to you very soon. Thank you. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you very much for listening. We will be back tomorrow with my buddy Matt Harmon from Reception Perception. And we're going to talk about identifying some potential breakout receivers based on history, based on the way the last couple years have gone and some of the guys that he's been looking at,

some of his favorites. So very excited for a receiver deep dive with my friend Matt. So please come back and check that out on Friday. for now, that is all we've got. Just a reminder, we're back on our three-day-a-week schedule. We're Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, all the way up through the start of the season and that first week of the year. So we're back. We're revving up.

It is time. Very excited about it. Appreciate all of you listening. We'll talk to you very soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.