The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - How much better are these AFC teams really?

Episode Date: March 13, 2025

Teams like the Patriots, Colts and Jaguars have been active in free agency. There's no doubt about that. But how much better are they really? That's exactly the question Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen strive to answer on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.RundownPatriotsColtsJaguarsTitansJetsBillsBroncosChiefsDolphinsRaidersTexansHost: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Free agency rolls on day day. It's been another quiet day in the free agency news cycle, same as yesterday. Yesterday we took a second, took a pause to talk about the fan bases who might be freaking out a little bit about what their teams have done so far in free agency. We're going to do another bigger picture look today at the teams that have spent some money and try to figure out if they're actually better off and how much better off they are now

than they were at the beginning of this week. That's a complicated question sometimes because it's not just, is the roster better immediately? If you're throwing around a lot of money, you're obviously going to be better immediately. But is the overall health of your organization and your team better after the set of moves that you made this week? That's the question I tried to answer with Derek Classen about 11 teams in the ASC. The other five, we talked about yesterday. So if you're a fan of one of those teams, please go check out that show. But that's what we're doing today.

Are you better off now than you've been? were earlier this week for the teams that have shelled out money in the AFC. Just a quick programming note, we're going to be doing the NFC version of this show on Monday. We didn't want to record it on Friday and release it over the weekend just because there's so many things that could potentially happen. Who knows what Aaron Rogers is going to do? Who knows what potential trade is hanging out there? So we didn't want to record a show and then wait a couple days to release it. So we're just going to do this on Monday, 11 a.m. Eastern on YouTube.

and then the podcast will go up very shortly after that. So if you're looking for the NFC version of it, be on the lookout on that sort of timeline. Today, we're doing the AFC with me and Derek. Let's get to it right now. Joining me today. It's my co-host, Derek. How you doing, man?

Doing all right. It's a little drizzly, a little cold outside, which is nice, knowing that on the horizon are 110 degrees. So I'm doing good. Cold outside. Well, cold relatively. It's 68. Yeah.

No, I'm going to peek behind the curtain a little bit. It's funny, I was talking to Beller, and I was like, oh, it's a little cold here. It's a little drizzly. It's like 50-something degrees. And Beller was like, oh, it's sunny out here. It's also 50 degrees. So it's just, that's... I spent time outside today without shoes on while it was 50 degrees.

That's how nice and warm it was here. And so we were just sitting out in the yard with a new dog. But it's been a quiet day. Another quiet day in the NFL news cycle. It's been a quiet couple days. You know, so much stuff was pushed into the first couple days of free agency that We've kind of pivoted the things that we were going to do and the executions we were going to have this week. And yesterday we pulled back a little bit and talked about the teams that really hadn't done much.

And we talked about whether those fan bases should be freaking out. Fun show, if you guys have not listened to that. And you're a fan of the Bengals, the Chargers, the Lions, the Ravens, the Steelers, the Browns, some teams I'm absolutely forgetting. I would go check that out. Today, again, because there's not a lot to react to, we're going to take another step back and talk about the teams that have done. some spending. So what we're going to do today is the AFC teams that have shelled out some money. So we're only talking about 11 teams today because we talked about five AFC teams yesterday. And then we're going to do the NFC version of this show on Monday.

Now that the dust is settled and we kind of have some more realistic understanding of what these contracts look like, where the funny money is, and what these team plans kind of look like directionally, I think it's a useful time to just take a beat and say, okay, now that the money has been spent or a good majority of it has been spent. And we understand most of the halls these teams are going to get. What does this actually mean? Like, how much better are these teams really? And that doesn't just mean for 2025. I'm talking about for a two, three year period, how much healthier are these rosters and these organizations after what they have done so far this week? So that's what we're doing today. And we're diving headfirst into the AFC teams that have

thrown some money around. I'm excited for it. Because if you just go on any of the cap sites and you scroll through free agency spending one that doesn't capture everything because some of the trades that have happened but two it's like a team could have signed four players for an unholy amount of money or have signed 10 players for not that much money but the overall money could look the same so it's a very useful exercise to like actually break it down kind of player by player we're going to order these by just amount spent in guarantees i think that's just the easiest way to do it we'll start with the teams that have shelled out a lot of and we will work our way down to the teams we didn't hit yesterday that have not spent a ton of money.

So let's start at the top, the team that had the most cash to burn coming into this week, and we're not shy about doing it over the last couple days. The New England Patriots, who have spent a ton, $162 million in guarantees, $60 million more than any other team up to this point. 63 million guaranteed for Milton Williams. That thing looks like a quarterback contract. Things have gotten so out of control that that's kind of what it feels like to me. Four years, 104 million with $63 million guaranteed.

Feels like a quarterback contract from what I would have started doing this like 10 years ago. Carlton Davis, three years 54 million with 35 guaranteed. Harold Landry, three years 44 million with 36 guaranteed. Robert Spillane, 11 million a year. Morgan Moses, $8 million a year with $11 million guaranteed. So let's dig into this with the Patriots. How much better are the Patriots, both today and you know, toward the horizon over the next couple years, let's say.

How much better are they now than they were a few days ago? I mean, this roster was so far away that they're not anywhere close to competing yet, but I do like a lot of these moves as building blocks. I'll start like Milton Williams, obviously, it's a ton of money, but I've said before, they had infinite money to spend anyway, so I don't care if they had to spend a premium to get them. And they are going through a lot of change up front. Like, we still don't know what is going to happen with Christian Barmore.

These two can play together anyway. Like Barmore truthfully can play nose tackle if he really needs to. But then like Dichik Wise is leaving. They traded Davin Godchaw. There's just a lot of movement there. So I like that. Carlton Davis I love not only because I love Carlton Davis, obviously that is well documented. But I've said for a couple years now that I don't really think the Patriots corners outside

of Gonzalez are any good. It's just that when Belichick was there, there was a very particular style and way that they were able to play. So getting him there is great. Spillane filling in for I presume Jolani Tavai, I think is an upgrade. and then Morgan Moses at the right side shores up something. And then to me, not spending it left tackle, not that there were many options there, kind of just leads me to believe that they're going to take Will Campbell with the fourth pick.

And that will be solved there. Or Mambu. They're going to take a left tackle with the fourth overall pick. Somebody to protect Drake Mades' blindside. And so like all of this, these are pretty much all the positions I would have wanted them to target. And for the most part, I feel like they took the right swings. When you're a team with this much cap space and this many holes, there's not really any good or bad way to go about this.

Like Mill Williams having him be a potential foundational piece, second contract player, he's still young. Maybe when you're trying to be competitive, three years from now while he's on a four-year deal, he can still be part of the plan. Carlton Davis, this is like a culture thing to me. This is a we're going to play this way on defense. This is the kind of player that we want.

There is a very real chance that Carlton Davis contract looks like an absolute nightmare in a year. He is 28 years old, going to be 29 this season. Next year will be his age, 26, 26 will be his age 30 season. These third contracts for guys at corner, especially corners who've been banged up, they can look rough in a hurry. But I think they're trying to establish these are the types of players we want in the building. Whether that's worth the premium they paid, I think that's a different conversation. The one that's hard for me to get behind is Harold Landry, right?

The Titans save $13 million by moving on from Harold Landry. They immediately replaced him. This is a team. If you look at the Titans' depth chart, and we'll get to this in a little bit, and you look at the edge rushers on that depth chart before they signed Draymond Jones, it was nothing. It was Arden Key, and that was it. And they still felt comfortable moving on from Harold Landry.

So the fact that the Patriots thought they needed to get ahead of the market on a guy that was in that situation in Tennessee, that's probably a little bit much for me. This playing contract, I like him for what he is. That's fine. And then Morgan Moses, I totally understand wanting to have a stopgap at right tackle, even if he's a little bit older. When I'm looking at stopgap offensive winemann, there are two spots, two types of teams where I think, okay, even if this is just a one-year

solution, I'm okay with it. One, if you're a contending team, right? So if you're a team trying to win the Super Bowl, signing Kevin Zitler is fine to me because we're trying to win the Super Bowl. We want reliable play at that spot. Or we want five guys we can rely on in front of our young quarterback. It doesn't matter if we're close, but the ecosystem we're trying to build on offense does matter.

So a Morgan Moses for a Drake May, a Kevin Zitler for potentially a Cam Ward. I can get behind that because I think you have to really be proactive in making sure you have a workable group of five to set your young quarterback up the best he can possibly be set up. Yeah, exactly. That's why I like this move for them. And truthfully, again, with where they're at in the draft, it just makes more sense for me to them to have not spent on left tackle in this market where it's like you know somebody is going to fall to you to play left tackle potentially at the fourth.

with the overall pick. So I think what they are. There's no Morgan Moses at left tackle. No. There's no more. There's no player like this at left tackle and free agency. They just don't really exist. I mean, Jalen Moore, who's obviously much younger, and we'll talk about this, didn't play.

He has a backup. And he got twice this. Obviously, he's much, much younger. But these players don't really exist at left tackle and free agency. So having a stopgap right tackle makes sense. And then drafting a guy in the top five, whoever that guy happens to be, that's a plan that I can get behind. Yeah, left tackle no matter what is going to cost you at least like $13, 14 million,

like a year. Even on like the lowest rung, you're taking the lowest bets just because of how valuable the position is, right tackle, even though I think if you have one of the best ones, it's very valuable for you. I think we've seen that teams are not willing to spend as much to fix that other side of the line with these lower bets. It's funny that because the markets themselves have started to get closer together. That started probably three or four years ago.

You know, Lane Johnson obviously helps push that forward. And then when Tristan Wirf's got paid, he had just moved to the left side. But I think that was, we're talking about him as a right tackle. We're talking about how he would be compensated. So the markets have started to converge with left and right tackles. But the availability in free agency has not corrected for that. For the most part, it's still easier to find a right tackle in free agency, especially this kind than it is a left tackle.

The one position, and I'm sure Patriots fans are screaming. about this as we have not hit it yet is receiver and the fact that they have done absolutely nothing to add a receiver. How do you feel about that right now? Do you think they should have shown more urgency to add to that position? Where do you sit with a Patriots receiver pursuit here over the last three or four days? I want to say yes, but when we were having the Dallas Cowboys discussion yesterday, you brought up a good point. Like, who are these teams that needed a receiver going to pay. Almost all of the, you know, top 15 receivers, if you really just listed them out in free agency, a majority of them went back to their own teams. Like Chris Godwin, Darius Slate went back to his own team.

Like a lot of these guys just went back. The exception is Devante Adams, who was never going to go to New England in the first place. So they kind of just got left with not many often. Is New England not a warm West Coast City to play football? It is like all. If Devonthe Adams made like a checklist of the five things he wants for a team, I'm pretty sure New England is like on the exact opposite of all of them, like not close to winning, like East Coast. Like, it just all of it. It was not the Devante Adam spot. I saw Adam Schaefter talking about this today, the pursuit of Chris Godwin by the Patriots.

Apparently they were willing to pay him like $30 million a year. And he just didn't want to do that. So he went back to Tampa, which I totally understand. Chris Gottwin has made a decent chunk of change. I think it's probably a better situation for him and his family to be in Tampa for 22 than it is to be in New England for 28. And if you look at the guys beyond Chris Godwin and Devante Adams, this is going to be a consistent conversation with some of these teams we're hitting. We alluded to a little bit with the Chargers yesterday. Your options, essentially, were Josh Palmer, Diami Brown, and Darius Slate.

Okay? Darius Slaten's on his third contract at least. It's hard because I think he's had like a multiple one year. He's like that's a different scenario. He is essentially a third contract player. And again, at receiver, those can get dicey. Diami Brown and Josh Palmer getting paid eight figures is, you know, just not something I don't think people thought was going to happen, but if you look at the market,

it's not that surprising. With Josh Palmer and Deante Brown specifically in a team like the Patriots, this is the calculus that I would make in real time, and maybe this is the type of conversation they were having in their building. I know it was the type of conversation happening in other buildings. Do we want to pay Diami Brown $10 million a year, or Josh Palmer $12 million a year, both of whom were third round picks? Or do we just want to draft a guy in the third round, pay a fraction of what those guys are going to cost and potentially get 85% of Josh Palmer and Diami Brown. Landing in that spot, if you're New England, if you're the Chargers, if you're the Titans,

I'm completely fine with that. I don't think that's a bad argument whatsoever. And the Patriots have an extra third round pick because of the Matt Judon trade. Oh my God. That's right. I forgot that was a third round pick. Good Lord. With Diombi Brown specifically, too, like, if kind of what you've talked about with

Brown, where he maybe instead of being the deep threat that we thought he was going to coming out of college is a little bit more of an underneath yak threat, all that sort of stuff. They already have Pop Douglas, so like, why would you pay Diami Brown to come in and do some of the same things? At least Palmer, I could have sold myself on like, okay, it's a little bit of a different skill set they have. It's a little bit more pedigree, all that stuff. But even then for the money he went with, I don't really care that much that they're willing to just like see what they can potentially hit on in the draft. Obviously, they drafted guys last year. Jalen Polk was a disaster. Like, there's no way around that. It was one of the worst rookie receiver seasons we've

seen for a while, in a while, Javon Baker couldn't get on the field. So there's no saying that works out if you'd end up taking that route. But the idea of drafting a guy, whether it's in the second or third round, and then just Dark Knight style, stabbing the pool queue in half and being like, we're going to have tryouts and that's what training camp looks like. That's fine with me. I don't think that's a problematic approach considering what the pool of veteran players looked like in free agency. Especially in year one of a new regime. And also, the big, like, Drake May was really good last year, even despite some of the players that he was throwing to. And so if it's mostly the same group that he's throwing to, like production-wise, it's not going

to be good, obviously, and it's not going to be a top 10, 12 offense or whatever. But like in terms of fostering his development, to me, it's more about fixing the offensive line and making sure he's protected, which that is where it seems like they're spending with Moses and presumably in the draft. Whereas I think with the receiver, like, yes, you want to upgrade that core. But I think he'll probably be fine with that being a little bit lesser right now. And the thing that's important with the Patriots in looking at the multi-year outlook of these moves,

they're still going to have a ton of money next year. Even with Milton Williams, even with Carlton Davis, what you don't want to do is you don't want to cut off future flexibility. If there is a brand and I yuke trade to potentially be made next year, I'm not using him as a specific example. That's more of an archetype. If there's a receiver that wants to get paid, you're like, all right, let's go out and do this.

I think having the flexibility to do that is important. Nothing they've done so far is going to preclude them for making any moves they want to make in 2026. And I think that's where you can get yourself in trouble potentially. Let's keep running through these teams. The Colts number two. The Colts are number two. Among all of these teams in the ASC,

the Indianapolis Colts have spent $81 million in guarantees in free agency. That is the fifth highest mark in the NFL. I think that there is a little bit of a fire under the seats of the people at Indianapolis compared to what it might have looked like in years past. I think there's a little bit of urgency running through that building. that feels a bit new. Traverius Ward, three years, $54,0.35 guaranteed. Can Biden, four years, $60,0.30 guaranteed.

And then the big one, Daniel Jones, one year, $14,000, $13 million. This is a complicated question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. How much healthier is the Indianapolis Colts outlook today than it was a couple days ago? Not that much better, which here's how I want to frame it. First of all, the guaranteed monies here is a little bit. they're cheesing it because of the Daniel Jones thing where they're paying him like way more than a backup would. So like that kind of complicates. It still matters. It still does. But my issue is like the Colts last year, not that the defense was great, but the Colts last year, the issue was just the offense

wasn't anything close to as good as they thought it was going to be. And they haven't made any moves that suggests to me it's going to be better. They've lost two of their best offensive linemen. Obviously, Fry's missed a lot of the year anyway. And the only offensive signing they've really made is Daniel Jones to, I guess they believe, ignite a fire under Anthony Richardson. And if that works, and Richardson is better, yes, all of this will be solved. But that is asking for a lot that we can't really project. And if Daniel Jones ends up starting, I don't think the offense is going to be any better than it was last year. So the offense to me is not better. I do think the defense will be some degree of better. I love Charverius Ward. Cam Biden, I think is the perfect safety for

the defense that they're going to start implementing there. I just don't know if yet those are enough moves to make them where we have this conversation in two months and we're trying to project like who is that one random defense that pops into the top 10. I don't know if this quite puts them into like that, you know, mystery category yet. I think it could happen. I think them getting better on the back end, you know, if they, let's say Juju Brent's hits in year three, for example, right? He figures it out with Luanna Rumo. The other secondary spots are so much better with those two guys. They are. Like how much you've improved at that corner spot and that safety spot is incredible. I think it's important to acknowledge the downside risk with assigning like the Charverius Ward one, though.

All of these third contract corners that we're talking about here that are 28, 29, 30 years old, there's real risk there. And it's actually kind of funny this move coming on the heels of them not trading for Legerius Sneed last year. Because remember, they were one of the Sneed teams. And obviously, this is better. You don't have to give up a third round pick and you pay less for Charverius Ward than Sneed. He's a little bit older, but some of the knee discussion and concern with Sneed. you know, he probably tack on a couple years to what his actual age is when you're talking about cornerback age.

So the fact that the Colts were willing to do it this year and weren't last year, I think, is a little bit of a lesson that they learned in going too young at those spots. We can talk about the defense and the ceiling of the defense forever. It doesn't really matter, right? The only reason it matters is can that defense be good enough where you can steal a couple games because you have a really good defense or a top 12ish defense? what's going to matter here is what happens with Anthony Richardson in that offense. If he doesn't work out and Daniel Jones wins that job and this team wins eight games,

they go eight and nine, I'm just not sure that's going to be enough. For most organizations, it wouldn't be enough, right? The dynamic between ownership and the GM in almost any other building, it would probably be done. That organization is so small and it runs a very specific way that I think they've talked themselves into this regime, maybe a little bit more than a more aggressive, ambitious organization would. But at a certain point, I think that some hard conversations are going to have to go down if Daniel Jones ends up becoming the better of those two quarterbacks by the end of training camp, and you don't suddenly win 11 games and make the playoffs with Daniel Jones, which is hard for me to imagine.

That's the thing. Daniel Jones, you can sell me on the world where somehow Anthony Richardson puts nothing together. Daniel Jones wins the starting job. But Daniel Jones winning the starting job doesn't put this team at 11 wins and into the playoffs. Like, you just have to sell me on so many things. The last thing I will say, actually, even though they did lose some of their key offensive linemen, they probably could just reload there in the draft because I don't think they have to spend that pick anywhere else on the offense, really. And like, the defense has enough now, even though there are still like hole. Like, I don't know if there's enough star power on the defense, but like they have enough of their holes filled that they could probably just draft

the offensive line. So maybe they could figure this out and maybe in a month or something. so I'll think differently about this team. But again, the biggest issue to me was how inconsistent the offense felt. And a lot of that comes down to the quarterback. And a lot of that was just not going to be solved by whatever they did in free agency. I can make a pretty good argument that the rest of the roster is actually in decent shape after they made those moves in the secondary. They drafted Tanner-Bortolini in the fourth round last year.

I think that was always the thought is that he would step in for Ryan Kelly this offseason, with Ryan Kelly getting older, being banged up and just everything that's happened there. Guard now is a concern without fries. you know, Danny Pinter, somebody who's been there forever. I absolutely think they could use an upgrade there, but that's something, like you said, they can do in the draft. Even on the edge, you know, they lose Dio and free agency. Samson Ebukam was hurt all year for them last year.

They've still got three guys there now with him and Quitty Pay and Latu. So they do have some depth at a lot of these spots. So if the quarterback hits and they do manage to find a workable right guard somewhere along the lines in the draft, I do think there's a version of this roster that can be pretty good, but it all comes back to what. whatever's going to happen with the quarterback. And you know what, actually, with the pass rushers, I was a little bit worried that they don't have a star, and I still don't think they do. I mean, a Buckner at defensive tackle, yes, but I mean

on the edge. We'll see what happens with Latu. I'm still willing to believe on that one. I'm not probably there in terms of star, but I do think he can be pretty good. But my thing was going to be that like, if Anorumo is calling up some of, you know, the things that he can throw and some of the Sims and some of the creepers, it's like, maybe you can get by with just a bunch of guys who are twos and threes, and maybe it's fine. I mean, obviously, Trey Hendrickson was more than that. Right.

If Latu can be 90% of Trey Hendrickson, which would be a really good player. And that I think he's on the table. Yeah, I think that's on the table. If he's 90% of Trey Hendrickson and then you have solid pieces everywhere else, this was the Bengals formula for how many years. We have solid pieces that are smart

and then we're going to play like more than the sum of the parts. And I think that there is a path there for them on defense. But again, it all comes back to the quarterback. And that is very much a wait and see sort of conversation. Stick in the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars have given out 76 million in guarantees. That is the sixth highest rate in the NFL. Patrick McCary, three years, 38 million, 23, guaranteed.

Jordan Lewis, three years 30, $20 million guaranteed. Diombe Brown, one year, $10 million. I've talked myself into that one, but I completely understand where people look at that and think it's ridiculous. Robert Hainesie, three years, $21 million at Center 13 guaranteed. Eric Murray, three years, $20 million, $12 million guaranteed, and then a couple smaller deals for Johnny Month. Hunter Long, which just stealing tight ends from that Rams ecosystem here for over the last couple

years, which makes sense given their roster. But it is funny to just see like the musical chairs with the Rams backup second and third tight ends between all these teams. Every coach wants familiarity one way or another and Cohen's getting it a little bit there. And also with Robert Haynesy, who was with him in Tampa Bay last year. So it's kind of funny. When I mentioned at the top that some of these teams are spending a lot of money, but it's spread out through like, eight to 10 players who are mostly not that consequential. It's the Jaguars. A lot of these guys are band-aids that they're hoping,

okay, we sign this guy and this position is not going to be good for us, but it's no longer a problem. And we don't have to go into the draft, like absolutely, oh man, we need a right guard. You know, okay, they have Patrick McCarrie now. Maybe they can figure that out. Hainesie, he can go play center for them. Month and Hunter Long, they can be your titan twos and threes, and they can be blockers and whatever.

Even Eric Murray being the Andre Sisko replacement, totally makes sense to me. It's just that other than maybe Jordan Lewis, none of these like make you a better team. They're just helping you prevent you from being a worst team, if that makes sense. I am actually okay with that as a free agency plan, though. I am too.

I'm just like, it's not exciting. No, it's not exciting, but that's okay. Sometimes like eating your vegetables in free agency is the right way to go out free agency. I can't remember the exact numbers and I wish I had pulled this in real time, but John Shipley, who covers the Jags, a friend of the show, he tweeted out something about the tier of player that the Jags have sought out in free agency this year.

So even though they've spent a lot of money, in previous years, if you look at the AAVs compared to the position, we're talking to like top five, top seven guys at almost every position when they sign with the Jaguars. That's not what this is. You know, these are all guys outside of the top 10, 15 at these positions. You're really just looking for starting caliber play from these spots. And I think you could make a reasonable argument for most of these, if that's, exactly what you're seeking out. The Jordan Lewis one is harder for me. That's the only one that's harder. If you think he's a top tier nickel, that's totally fine. This is somebody who is

available for less than $3 million on a one-year deal last year, and he's about to be 30 years old. And so the idea of paying him $20 million guaranteed, these are just not the sort of deals that typically age well. And I just don't know why they felt like they needed to do this. Jerry and Jones was their nickel last year. It sounds like they think that. that they can play him outside and then maybe they seek out another outside corner early in the draft to pair with Tyson Campbell. But spending that much on Jordan Lewis at this stage, that's the one that I raise an eyebrow at.

I'm happy to be wrong, but I didn't make a ton of sense to me even in real time. In terms of specifically the player, kind of like you mentioned, with him being a little bit older, you could have got him for cheaper, you know, beforehand and stuff like that. I understand all of that. The only way that this does make sense to me is. Three years, 30 million, so about 10 million a year. That was going to be like Christian Fulton-ish money. And I can see a world where they thought, okay, Lewis is a tier better as a nickel than Fulton would be as an outside corner.

Maybe we just get the better nickel player and we'll figure out whatever we want to do on the outside, whether it's moving Jerry and Jones outside, or maybe Hunter falls to five and they pick him or they trade back a little bit and take Will Johnson. I just wonder if they thought signing Lewis gave them more flexibility to figure out the other spot, rather than trying to figure out the nickel spot some other way or just letting Jones carry it out. That makes sense to me. And the other thing you and I were talking about when we were discussing this earlier today that I think is worth just digging into a little bit here. I wonder how this new regime is looking at the front investment specifically. Because if you look at it, there's a lot of them, right? I mean, Josh Hines-Ellen got paid. Trayvon Walker was the number one pick in the draft.

Eric Armstead got paid. Mason Smith was a second-round pick last. year. So does this group and James Gladstone look at all this and say, we've spent so much here, we just kind of have to see this through? Or are they not tied to those choices that were made by the previous regime? And they look at the top five of this draft and say, we want useful players. We'll take Mason Graham or trade down and take some sort of edge because we still think we need difference makers in that spot. How they approach that, how they're seeing that group specifically. That's interesting to me. And I'm curious what the end result is there.

So I think with the draft, I could see them going anywhere. Like Mason Graham at that five might still be on the table because that is more, you're drafting your guys, if that makes sense. Whereas free agency is like, it's just going to cost a lot of money. And we already have so much money invested here that it's just not worth it for us to like be a little bit deeper in the hole there. So I kind of, for the draft, I think they could still be on the board for defensive line or front seven pretty much wherever the first three, four rounds. but them not spending money there and free agency does kind of track to me just because of the previous investments. So I'll ask this at the end instead of the beginning.

In terms of overall organizational and roster health, how much better off are the Jags right now than they were three days ago? I think they are in a better spot because the thing I said last year was it can't get worse. And all of these signings are to the end of we got to make sure it doesn't get worse. And I do believe Cohen is a better play caller. and I think another year of Trevor and Brian Thomas Jr. is going to be good. So I like a lot of this stuff around here. I don't mind that they didn't show out big money for any of the interior players. I think that it's easy to talk yourself into that as an idea of we don't want to overpay for these guards and free agency.

And there weren't that many guards, period. Like Will Fries was like the prize. There weren't that many of those guys. Second contract guards that were going to get paid a lot of money. I still worry that we're just going to get to the end of the season and look at the offensive line and be like, there are no actually good players among this group. Like, they're all passable at best. And that's a viable path to building an offensive line.

It's just, it's in the back of my mind where I just feel like we might get to week 12 and just be like, ah, this group isn't good enough. Like, they just need to be a little bit, there are too many half measures here. They need to be a little bit more aggressive in adding to this group next off season. I can see that happening potentially. And maybe they try to add to it in the draft and that's where they seek out upside, etc. and these moves were just a means to have some of these holes filled so it gave them optionality. That's totally fine.

But if this is the group that they end up rolling with, I think that endpoint is very much in play. I can definitely see that too. But it was so bad last year that it's like, okay, man, we'll try to shore up some of this stuff this year. If it doesn't work, then we can spend next year to figure it out. All right. If you're watching this on YouTube, we're going to keep going here. If you're listening to the podcast version, we're going to take. our first quick break. Let's get to the Tennessee Titans. Fifty-five million and guarantees

handed out. That is the ninth highest number in the NFL. How much better are the Tennessee Titans? How much better off are the Tennessee Titans today than they were three days ago? That's a hard question. Like, okay, so signing Dan Moore is going to help them at two spots at tackle. I think that's fine. And signing Kevin Zightler is probably about as good as they were going to do digging in that bin of player, especially if we have. assume they're going to go draft cam ward like you said you want to have the five competent guys in front of a rookie quarterback i just don't think they have enough elsewhere on the offense for this to matter that much and i don't think the defense got any better so i don't think they necessarily

got worse as a team given some of the the players they let leave and stuff like that i just don't feel that much stronger about them at this stage this is the one we're furthest apart about I don't know. I actually think they're in much better shape than they were at the beginning of this week. I totally rationalized all of this. Okay, the offensive line you can sell me on. And that is a little bit contingent on just like how well Cam Ward plays and stuff like that. But one, I just don't think the other pieces on the offense are good enough.

But two, do you think the defense is better now than it was a week ago? Does it need to be? Based on the investments that they've made? If the offense isn't still going to be that good last year. year, I mean, or this year upcoming. I don't know. I think it's hard to overstate how bad the offensive line was for them last year. Maybe.

It's hard to overstate how bad the right side of the offensive line was for them last year. So now the left side is better than it was last season with Dan Moore at left tackle. I think J.C. Latham was out over his skis a little bit at left tackle. It was definitely a struggle and there was a development curve that he had to deal with over the course of last season. Dan Moore is totally fine to me for the price. that they paid. I think paying for certainty at that spot, and that's what we've talked about it all week. I'm fine with that contract because I think that it allows you to sleep at night if you're Brian Callahan, and it makes you better at two tackle spots because you can move

J.C. Latham. That's totally fine with me. Putting Zyler in there at right guard, guys, the guy's a machine. Like, he's going to be signing these deals 10 years from now. I'm going to have been long fired, and I'm going to be like in a different business by the time Kevin Zitler is done playing in the NFL. I tweeted it last night. This contract gives him $100 million in career earnings, which is one of four guards of all time that has made $100 million playing professional football. Joe Blotonia will get there this year.

So Kevin Zitler, incredible bag getter, and he played really well last year. And that type of signing, when you want to make sure your offensive line is solid for a rookie quarterback, and I do think the signs are pointing to them taking the quarterback first overall, I can totally get behind that. I do think the state of the offensive line is significantly better than it was a year ago, even if they had to pay a premium to do it. On defense, I don't think they're necessarily better, but they're not worse, and they didn't really spend a lot of money here.

I mean, all they really did was get Dremont Jones. The Dremont Jones money is the money they saved cutting Harold Landry. And we talked about this at the top when we were discussing the Patriots. The edge lineup here in Tennessee left a lot to be desired before the Dremont Jones thing. And he's not a great pass rusher in that spot, but he is a useful player. He'll set the edge for you. You can bump him inside in pass rush situations. I think with Arden Key, his skill set actually does make a lot of sense, considering what

Arden Key is. And I think this sets up with them at 35 or whatever it is in this sort of draft to take an edge player there and then try to find a receiver in the fourth round. They have two of those fourth round picks. That to me is how this is all setting up. and with the offensive line being better as a result of their moves so far, I'm totally fine with like that sequence of events. I think what this reminds me of a little bit is what the Broncos did last year,

where or over the last couple years. They built up the offensive line. They had one good receiver in Cortland Sutton and that was enough. And then that floor that they established for the rookie quarterback was good enough to set up that rookie quarterback to at least be functional early on. And I think the Titans are headed down that sort of. of path. So you can kind of sell me on that vision. And I do think that that is a good analogy. My problem is that Dan Moore is worse than Mike McGlenshy. Calvin Ridley is worse than Cortland Sutton.

And I'll leave the door open for Brian Callahan. He's obviously a very young coach in terms of being the head guy and being the play caller. But we knew Sean Payton was going to be really, really good. And so even like it's just, it feels a little bit more like a watered down version of that. I do think the offensive line. It's a B plus version of it. Yeah. For sure. definitely is. Even though I do think the McClinchie thing is a little bit revisionist history. When they gave McGlitchie that contract, I think a lot of people, there was some wide eyes at that deal in the same way there was with the Dan Moore one. So I think it's potentially some of that. I also just think I'm not as high on Dan Moore is the issue. It is like part of the issue here. I don't think he's going to be a disaster, but I don't know if he's going to move the needle that much. All right, so here we go.

Let's do this. McGlinchie goes to an offense that was incredibly buttoned up in pass protection in Denver. Like, clearly they were just so well coached. And if you watch that group play together pass protection-wise, it was really impressive. Dan Moore goes from Pittsburgh where they have struggled to develop offensive linemen to Bill Callahan. Can we see a similar sort of accelerant with Dan Moore that we got Mike McGlinchie because of the ecosystem change that we're looking at right here? maybe, but I don't know if any of the young offensive linemen they had last year looked like the best versions of themselves. So I just Scorotsky was better. A little bit. But Latham was, I guess Latham had a switch position. So that was really tough. But like,

right tackle was a young player who didn't look any better. Like, uh, I don't know, man. Like that was a loss. Yeah, that was probably a lost cause. I thought he was a pretty bad player coming in. But like, um, I don't know, man. It's, I do see the vision here. I think I'm just a little bit. less confident that we're going to get there, which is funny because I really do like Cam Ward. And so if they get him, like there's a part of this that maybe once it's all settled, I actually really could sell myself on it,

but like just looking at it without the quarterback there yet, there's something about it that I just, the puzzle pieces don't fit all the way for me. I agree with that, but here's what I'll talk myself into. I think that that group is good enough if the quarterback is the right guy for it to look a lot better. That's a good point.

And I mean, yeah. Think about how much better. And I'm not saying he's going to be Jaden Daniels, okay? But look at, think about how much better this looks right on paper than even Washington did last year. Right. And I don't think that they're going to be the same score of schematic advantages for this group that Washington had. Cliff really was in his bag all season. But I do think that there are versions of this that work out, especially if Cam Ward is pretty good from the get.

Well, but if they can run the ball better because of Zaitler, like maybe they can do more of the under center play. Like, you're selling it. You're selling me on it a little bit. I just still think a lot of these players are worse versions of the Denver thing. Which again, maybe they don't even have to be that good because it could be offset by like maybe Cam Ward is just better than Bo Nix's, which is a thing that I believe. So this might be one I just have to sit with for a while. There's still something about it that's uneasy for me. I can see it in ways that I can't with some of the other teams.

And that's why I'm a little bit bonded on it. But I get your skepticism. Let's get to the next one here. the New York Jets, 53 million in guarantees, the 10th highest number in the NFL. $30 million guaranteed for Justin Fields. Who boy. Jamie and Sherwood, three years, 45 with 30 guaranteed. Brandon Stevens, three for 36 with 23 guaranteed.

And our guy, Andre Sisko, one year, $10 million. I think most of that is guaranteed. How much better? How much healthier are the New York Jets now than they were three days ago? I like the sources of optimism for me. are just that like they changed a lot of the play callers and maybe the vibes on defense are going to be better because of Glenn, not instead of like Obrick, you know, taking over his head coach. Like a lot of the reasons for optimism for me are not free agency related. I do think Andre

Cisco is perfect for what they want to do. So that I love. But them effectively swapping DJ Reed for Brandon Stevens does not inspire confidence in me. And then for as much as I love Fields, the guy and the idea of Fields, I'm not sure he's functionally a better player than we saw from Rogers over the back half of the last year. So I really don't know if the Jets are any better. Here's what I'll say about the Brandon Stevens thing. I understand the vision. I was looking at some numbers today. And it's actually really funny. So if you look at players with over 300 coverage snaps and you look at the amount of their targets that were into tight windows, Brandon Stevens was like sixth in the NFL. He was right behind Sauce Gardner. He was right behind DJ Reed. He was

up near the top of all corners who were like mostly full-time players last year. The stat where he led the league in a bad way is that he allowed more receptions over expectation given separation than any cornerback in football last year. He's always where he's supposed to be. He just can't find the ball. And so if I'm Aaron Glenn and I'm obsessed with these man coverage guys who are big and physical and sticky, I look at what Brandon Stevens looks like. until the ball arrives and I'm like, oh yeah, like that guy can absolutely play the way that I

need him to. So I do think the fact that he's like 80% of the way there until the ball is thrown, there's an argument to be made that he has the right sort of player for this defense is what I'm getting at. You have to tell yourself a story, but I get what they're seeing. I absolutely get what he's seeing. Because here's the thing, like a lot of those, he does just not have very good ball skills. So that is certainly part of it. But a lot of it was him being able to have like tight coverage and stuff was a lot of it was just teams would just pick on him with like back shoulder balls. Oh my God. The amount of targets. It was just back shoulder balls and like curls and straight go balls. Like it was a lot of just this stuff that is purely on the vertical plane. And like those are a little

bit easier to just be in the right spot because you're not doing a whole lot. Um, it's fair. And so I think that's part of it. But you, there's a world where you can sell me that Glenn is just a really, really good DB's coach and get more out of him than he should. Like he made Ken Crawley look good for one year, which was insane. So it's possible, but this is a lot of money to find that out. It's not that much money. 12 million a year is a decent amount of money. When you think about the top of the cornerback now, that's actually not that much money.

I'm looking at it right now, okay? But hold on. So I have every cornerback contract stacked up. Isaiah Oliver got like seven and a half. I would much rather have tried that. But he's a nickel, right? He's being paid to play a different position. Rogers.

Sorry, not Oliver. Isaiah Rogers. Okay, that's a reasonable argument. But can Isaiah Rogers play man coverage the way that Brandon Stevens can? I think that's the question, right? He's not going to be asked to do that with the Vikings. You can hide Isaiah Rogers in a way that you don't want to hide your corners in this scheme. Yeah, I at a certain point, though, the quality starts to become a problem.

I don't know. Maybe I'm just like too harsh on Brandon Stevens. If you look at the number, okay, with J.C. Horn is now making $25 million a year. So that's half of the top of the market. If you stack up the cornerback contracts, he is the 20th highest paid corner in the league by A.A.V. If you do it by average percentage of the cap at signing, it goes down even more. Now we're at 21. It's the same contract Nate Hobbs signed.

And if you stack it up compared to all the other cornerback contracts, outside cornerback contracts in the league, it's one of the lowest numbers in the NFL for a starting outside corner signed in free agency. For the most part, all the other deals just below it are nickels or rookie contracts. The only guys who are paid to be starters this year, presumably, that are being paid more or less than Brandon Stevens that aren't rookie contract guys. Sean Murphy Bunting, which we'll see, right? Like, we'll see if he's actually going to be a starter if they try to upgrade on him. Darius Slay, who's 34 years old and Christian Fulton. That's it. And Christian Fulton, that's the other question.

Would you rather have Fulton, maybe, but with the amount of man you're asking him to play, is that a spot you want to put Christian Fulton? And also Fulton's hurt all the time, which is not really going to be an issue with Stevens. So he played the most coverage snaps in the NFL last year, Brandon Stevens. which was offensive I never thought that I'd be sitting here

tried to make the Brandon Stevens case but that's what I'm doing I mean the thing I'll say too I guess this doesn't necessarily stop them from drafting a corner and seeing like in the first two rounds

and seeing if he can be better than Steven so no so you know what maybe this isn't the worst thing that they could have done this is probably okay I still don't know if it makes them better there's still like this isn't as

this isn't better than DJ Reed but no I guess if the argument is that Stevens is a little bit of a downgrade from Reed, but Cisco is so much better than any of the other safeties they had last year, maybe you can actually start to sell me on it. I can see how this comes together. I can't.

And I understand what they're seeing in Brandon Stevens. Let's talk about Justin Fields here just for a second. Is this justifiable to you now that you've had like a couple of days to sit with it? Is this price and this sort of investment in what is kind of a hope and a prayer? Like your best case scenario here is he does the Baker or Sam Darnold thing. Do you think that path is viable for Justin Fields given how much football we have seen in play in multiple situations? I mean, I think it's less about that and more just like what else were they going to do.

You know, like I honestly, if they were obviously. I mean, you don't have to give a quarterback $30 million guaranteed. Well, I guess. But like who else were they going to get to play quarterback for them? Like, were they going to be the Rust team? I would at least rather see with Justin Fields and pay him a little bit. bit more. A little bit more. Well, I mean, like, they have enough money that I just don't think that this is like that inhibitive to much of what they're going to do the next two years. And if he sucks

this year, then it's not going to stop them from taking a quarterback next year. So I just don't think it's like, it is a lot of money when you just look at it on paper, but I don't know if this like changes their fortunes really that all that much. Yeah, I think that's fair. I just don't see the path for it. I just don't. And I feel like if you want to build this really weird sort of offense and you're super run heavy and that's the approach here, maybe that's the route you take with the backs you have with some of the bigger guys you have along the offensive line. I don't really that build with Tanner Angstrand as the offensive coordinator. Like, I'm not sure how that all comes together. The funny part about this, and I would almost guarantee

this has some role in what they did, Justin Fields destroyed the line. Alliance. Like, Justin Fields was a Thorne and Aaron Glenn side for like three years. And so if the argument is, we're not going to get a viable traditional quarterback option, right? We're not going to get somebody who think we can, he can win from the pocket and is a potential multi-year option for us. Let's get somebody who is unconventional, who would allow us to compete in unconventional ways is somebody that is generally well liked, is going to be good in the locker room, all of that kind of stuff. That's an argument I can get behind. I just think that the path for this succeeding is pretty narrow. I went back and watched a couple Fields games today. And I just, it's fine. It was better than it was in Chicago. You talk about the quick game operation.

He's obviously still a great athlete. But I just am not sure I see the path to even like a diet version of the Darnold or Baker Renaissance. I mean, okay, the Darnold thing that we've only seen for one year. So that one's like we can set that aside. I, the Baker thing is a little bit trickier because Baker for all of his issues does play a lot faster than Justin Fields. And so does Donald. Right.

And so does Arnold. They're just, that's the problem with Fieldsrooms. You watch and play and it's still so robotic. Yeah. It's still just so robotic. And that's why I can't buy into it is because even if you feel like situation can change, etc., the roboticism that's involved with it, I just don't know if that's something you can get over. Right. Like the best version of him is something that is akin to a jail and her.

like a bit morets-esque offense where he's just pushing the ball down the field and not being asked to read a ton of stuff out. Maybe in that sort of offense it works. I'm just not sure that's the sort of offense they're going to be capable of building here, given who's running the offense. And given they just don't have any of those players. Yeah, like the offensive line isn't nearly as good. And Garrett Wilson is great, but I don't know if you can quite treat him the same way without having another, a number two the way that the Eagles do. So I just, I think it's just, I think this is fine. He can be like a low to mid-20s quarterback.

And for them, for what they're paying is fine. I also do like, there's a small part of me. And I think this is me just playing to my own heartstrings that like Tyrod Taylor for like could be good for Justin Fields. Just because I don't think he got that kind of mentorship either in Chicago. And I don't really think Russ was doing that for him in Pittsburgh. So there's at least part of me that is trying to sell myself on that. But it's a very small part of this.

Yeah, if you look at the money. And again, we've talked about this. It's really just like a markup on the, like, type of contract you would give out to a Garoppelow or to a Gardner Minchin. And I don't think he's any worse than those. He's just, we're burned by what he was as a prospect. I think is part of why it feels bad. And there are alternate pads away from like there with Jimmy and Gardner Minchu, like, there are multiple ways they can win for you. At least with Justin Fields, there are multiple ways that he can win for you. And the fact that he is making pretty clearly the lowest starting quarterback salary

in the league now, you know, you compare it to what Baker Mayfield is making. So Baker Mayfield's A.A.V. that contract, 13% of the cap. Justin Fields, 7% of the cap. I mean, it really is just an uptick on the types of contracts we've seen handed out to those sorts of quarterbacks. I'm just not sure even that is worth paying a premium for. It might be with fewer options, with almost no other options on the table. But the idea that that contract ends up looking good, it's just hard for me to deal with that. It's hard for me to talk myself into that. The last thing I'll say is I wonder if they paid a little bit of premium to just not feel like they went with the like tired veteran which like I know Fields is kind of a veteran but like they were more fine paying a little bit of

money to like not try to sell fans. I'm like, we're the Kirk Cousins team. Like, come on, man. Yeah, I think you can peddle a little bit more hope because he's younger and theoretically there's still some unrealized upside there. But this is the same conversation that we're having in Chicago. I'm just not sure how much upside is really there. And I've never, I've never been sure how much upside is really there because while he is physically gifted in some areas, he is not physically gifted in areas that I think are indicative of a potential jump for a quarterback. Sam Darnold was. Justin Fields is not. And that's why the rationalization is just tougher for me. Let's stick in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills, 52-mish million dollars handed out in guarantees,

the 11th highest rate in the NFL. They've only handed out 89 million in total contracts, which is a kind of a reprieve from some of these other teams we've talked about. It's less, but a good chunk of it is guaranteed because of things like the Bosa deal. like the Illario-Ginjobie deal. As you look at the deals that Buffalo has handed out in free agencies so far, are the bills a healthier organization? Are they better off now than they were three days ago? I think they are, actually.

I think Bosa and Michael Hecht. Is it Hoyt? Okay, Hoyt. That one always trips me up for some reason. Anyway. It's a tough one. It's a tough one. Michael Hoy, I think that gives them,

Bosa is probably not going to be a star ever again. But if he can just be good depth next to a guy like Greg Rousseau and behind him and be there good. like two, three, whatever. Hoyt gives them some flexibility. Like, he's a pretty good run defender and all this stuff. He's a bigger body than some of the guys that they have. So I-

It's a really good point, actually. That's a really, really good point. They're a small defense. And so to go get a big player is actually kind of nice for them. And even Bosa, when he's healthy, actually, he's a pretty good run defender. So, like, stylistically, I think this helps them a little bit. And then I hemmed and hot a little bit over the Palmer signing. But then when I thought about it a little bit more,

one, you sold me a little bit more on what his play style can really. do, but also just at the end of the day, even if I think they need more speed, he is just a better player than we saw from Amari Cooper last year. And he's better than any of the other guys they had on the roster. So even if he's not the perfect thing we wanted for them, he's still a better player. And so if they've mostly added good players and not really lost many guys that I'm worried about, I kind of like where they're at. I don't mind it at all. I think it all makes sense up to this point. And we talked about it earlier in the week, but the sell to me on the Josh Palmer thing is, while he doesn't have a lot of gas,

he is a much better separator than anybody that they had on the roster. Them getting what they thought they were getting in Amari Cooper, I think that's a reasonable sell for Josh Palmer. And when you combine him with Keon Coleman, with what they have in Shakir, that group that tracks to me. I do think they need a little giddy up somewhere, but that's hopefully something you could potentially chase

in the draft somewhere along the way. And they have a couple extra picks. They have that extra two from Minnesota. They have an extra four from Chicago. and the fucking Ryan Bates trade. Every time I look at the picks that the bears have and the picks that the bills have, I get upset about the fact that the fourth round, excuse me, that's a lie.

It's the Austin Booker trade. They traded up for Austin Booker in last year's draft, so there's a four going to the bills as part of that. And so the fact that there's an extra four going to Buffalo, and the bear's number one need is still edge rusher, even after the Dio thing is a little bit frustrating to me. But it's neither here nor there. They've got a five coming from Dallas.

They've got a lot of picks in this year's draft. So if speed is what you want, hopefully you can find speed somewhere along the way in the middle rounds. The one thing I still need from them, it's the one thing I needed from them coming into the offseason and the one thing I still want is corner. I just want an upgraded corner. I think that we want an upgraded pass rusher,

Bosa theoretically is a swing to give you that. During his press conference today, he said he was playing at like 60% last year. And people were just like, see? He was playing at 60%. percent last year. Well, he's always a 60%. Yeah, that's the thing. Yeah, that's, yeah, that doesn't do anything for me. If it hits great, because I do think that there is some upside there, but the idea that while he was hurt last year, it'll be better this year, I don't think that's how it works

with Joey Bosa at this stage. But there is a world where the pass rush is better with the guys that they have in the building now. I still would draft the pass rusher, high in the draft, whether that's at 56 or 62, and I still think they need a corner somewhere along the way. The problem is the last time we looked at a draft and said the bills need a corner in this draft, the Kyrieelam thing happened. Who they just traded away like two days ago. Yes. So I feel okay about Bob Buffalo. I guess that's what I would say. I feel like what they have done so far is totally justifiable. I want some more gas. I want one more edge past rushing body even with Bosa, a multi-year option. But you can find that in this year's draft. And I want a corner somewhere.

Yeah, like they still have one or two things they could fix, but they're in the same boat to me as like the Baltimore Ravens. You were already a top five team and you have a superstar quarterback. Just don't get worse and I don't think they got worse. So good on them. No, I don't think so either. Broncos are next. I don't think we have to talk about the Broncos very much as part of this discussion. We've talked about the Broncos ad nauseum over the last few days.

I think the answer is how much better are the Broncos really now compared to three days ago? I think it's a definitive yes from both of us, correct? It's emphatically, yes, if Hufanga and Greenlaw are healthy. Like, that's pretty much it. Like, if those guys play at least 12 games, yes, the Broncos are easily a better team than they were three days ago. And even if they don't, it's the same team as last year. Like, they're not worse. And if you look at the money handed out to those guys, you know, they're not nothing.

Like the guarantees are, especially for injured players, oft injured players. Those guarantees do extend into next year. So I don't. The Hufanga guarantees are. low like 20 million guaranteed over three years is really not that much for for a safety I don't feel like yeah that's probably right so that's essentially a season guaranteed that's a good point so beyond that there's probably not much I don't know what the structure of his deal looks like this is probably something we could have looked at before we started here but the 20 million dollars guaranteed

there's a good chance that a good chunk of that is pushed into the first couple years we don't have the information on it. We don't have the signing bonus or anything like that yet, but that's a good thing to point out that it's most of the guarantees are probably in this year. And with Greenlaw, I don't think we have that information either. So there's a chance that these are some funny money deals that don't steal away from them being able to do stuff in the future. And then the Evan Ingram deal came in yesterday as we were recording. He's older. These third contracts for skill position players always come with a decent amount of risk, but I understand the case for Evan Ingram as part of this offense. I think it is the skill set or akin to the skill set that we wanted to see dropped into this group.

And this is kind of like when I joked that it should be Joanne Johnson, obviously. This is the type of signing that doesn't stop you from taking a tight end in the first 60 picks. Like they'll probably do that and then they'll completely reload the room and they'll be fine. Yeah. So I'm a big fan of what the Broncos did. Again, tons of risk when it comes to injuries. But I think that they have protected themselves from some of that. risk based on how some of these contracts are structured.

So some risk, but not a ton and I think a lot of reward if this stuff does fall into place. Kansas City Chiefs, $39 million in guarantees, the 17th highest number in the NFL. Captain Trey Smith, Captain Nick Bolton, kept Hollywood Brown, Jalen Moore, three for 30 and 20 guaranteed, 21. Christian Fulton, two for 20, 15 guaranteed. Elijah Mitchell, one year, two and a half million, $1.4 million dollars guaranteed. how much better and how much better shape are the Kansas City Chiefs now than they were a few days ago?

Like slightly better? I mean, at outside corner, like, Fulton, I think is a nice bet for them to make, but I still want to see them do a lot more there. And maybe they can in the draft, whatever. Jalen Moore, I guess, won't be worse than what they had at left tackle last year, even though I'm, I think that's true. I'm still dubious of how much better he's going to be in like, if it really matters that much. But I mean, they kept a lot of the other stuff that they had in place. Like keeping Trey Smith was good. Bolton probably makes sense.

Hollywood Brown coming back. You'll get Rishi Rice back next year. Like, I don't know if they're better necessarily, but this is still a team that won like 15 games and went to the Super Bowl. So it's one of those things where it's just like you're the chiefs, man. It's probably going to be okay. You understand how they landed where they did with the offensive line. Tune was a free agent after this year. Trey Smith is 26 years old.

we're going to pay one of those guys. It probably makes sense to pay Tray Smith. But that comes with a chance that your offensive line is just worse this year than it was last year, even with better play at left tackle. I just, how they landed on the J. LoMor thing, it to me makes total sense, even if it potentially can go off the rails. For the last two years, they've drafted these raw pieces that they were like, all right, these guys have tools. We'll develop them. We'll get them there. It'll work out in the end. It didn't work out with either one of them. And so in order to jump that, they said, we saw, you know how many true pass set snaps Jalen Moore had last year for the Niners? It has to be like less than 100.

73. Yep. Right on. So they, so they saw him take 73 true pass set snaps last year for San Francisco. And he was fine on those plays. The reason that number sticks out is that the Niners, it's a lot of play action, especially when they had a backup left tackle in the game. They hide their offensive I'm in very well. So I wanted to try to account for that and looking at those numbers. It was 73 snaps. But those 73 snaps were enough for them to say, you know what? We've at least seen him do it.

We've at least seen him be a functional left tackle in the league. So we're willing to pay $15 million for that just so we can get off of the development train that we've been riding for the last couple years. I mean, I guess that's more good pass pro snaps than they got out of Kingsley or Waniye Morris over last year. So like, I guess. Combined, I would say. Combined, yeah, probably.

So again, I don't know if it's going to be like, I don't even know if this is going to be as good as like Donovan Smith was for them. But I guess it just has to be better than last year and that might be enough. Yeah, and you're paying obviously a premium for a younger player that can be a multi-year solution for you compared to a Donovan Smith. What do you think about the receiving situation? Like, if it just goes into this year, obviously Xavier Worthy is dealing with some legal stuff right now. but savior worthy, Rishi Rice, Hollywood Brown, this version of Travis Kelsey, Elijah Mitchell, Isaiah Pacheco, and this offensive line. How would you feel about that if that was the group? If they could stay healthy, I think it's probably okay. Like, Rashid Rice can be a thousand yard receiver. I tend to agree with that. Like, when your quarterback is Mahomes, like you can get away with having things that are a little bit cheaper at the receivers. So I think Rishie Rice, if he can come back fully healthy, then he can be a thousand yard receiver.

few and be mostly the engine. Worthy is a useful, like, gadget ancillary player. And then Hollywood Brown, again, is kind of just more of an underneath can give you a little bit of horizontal stretch. And that's something. I probably would like to see them still take a dice roll in the third round on some type of receiver, or maybe even higher than that on a tight end. But, like, this can still be, I think.

Ooh. Like, they should. Oh, man. Their pick at like 30 or something, it should be whatever tight end they think is better. Like, why shouldn't it be? And I know there's a drop off with the tight ends after Warren and Loveland, so maybe you don't want to spend 30 on whoever that is. But one of their first two picks should probably be a tight end because it's about time for the Travis Kelsey's success. So the fact that I'm like salivating over this idea is all theoretical.

But if these guys are really good, if like if the Lovelins and the Warrens are really good, you're already selling me on the idea of like the Chiefs just the 12th pick in the draft is on the board and the Chief's logo flashes up there because they're like, this is it. Colton Loveland. They probably have too many holes to justify that. Like, they need a corner still somewhere along the way. They need interior defensive linemen now that they've lost a couple guys, etc. But the idea of them finding a fun succession plan at tight end is alluring. If they did that, it would be like the Olavet trade where I'm like, I don't know if health-wise for your organization this was a good call. But that's a good player.

It makes sense for what you need. So whatever. We're going to take one more quick break. if you were listening to this in the podcast version. If you're watching it on YouTube, we're just going to keep on going. A few more here. We can run through these pretty quickly

just because there haven't been that many signings from these teams. Miami Dolphins, $22 million in guarantees, the 20th highest rate in the NFL. James Daniels, 3 for 24, 11 and guaranteed. Zach Wilson, one for six, fully guaranteed. If ML Phone will one year,

3 million, 2.5 guaranteed formerly of the Lions. I don't, the idea of whether the dolphins are better or worse because of these deals kind of feels moot. Like, they didn't have any money to spend. This is all of them working on the margins. I'll say, I like what the dolphins have done in free agency,

despite only signing like these three guys. All three of these signings, I can totally get behind. I'll see this. I think for them, it's not did you get better? It's like, did you do the most with the very, very limited resources you had? Correct. And like, I think they did. They took the right swing.

I think at a guard, like James Daniels, when he's been healthy, has been at least an above average guard at certain spots in his career. Zach Wilson was playing really well last year before he got hurt really well. Yeah. Zach Wilson, I don't love as an idea, but if you think that he can be a quick trigger man in an RPO offense, that's fine. And then Ife Melifonu is, if they weren't, didn't want to obviously shell out for

Javan Holland and move contracts around and all that stuff, totally understandable, it was going to be really hard for them to do. Melifonu in terms of like an athletic, movable piece to potentially be just like a really cheap potential bandaid to replace that was probably about as good as they were going to do as far as that went. So I would say thumbs up for all of these, or two of them at least. We talked about Melphonwu in our favorite dice roll segment we were previewing the defensive free agents. He was one of mine because I just think that he has flashed when you use situationally. He's good blitzer. He's physical. He just hurt all the time. So one year and three million bucks

for that. Okay. If it doesn't work out, who cares? If it does work out, you get a pretty big bargaining. The idea that he's the Zach Bond signing of this year, where we just, by the end of the year, be like, man, I can't believe this guy was available for $3 million. That's on the table for me. There's a chance he plays three games, but that other pathway is potentially on the table for me. I agree with the James Daniels thing to get him at half of the top of the market guards. He's coming off in Achilles. Like, who the hell knows if it's going to work out?

But I think as a bet, it makes sense. And I get Zach Wilson, right? you're betting on a former number two overall pick. You think your infrastructure is going to be able to get something out of him. Other offenses couldn't. I don't necessarily believe that, but I get the case for it if you are the Miami Dolphins, especially in a world where you know you can move on from Tua next year. And having a lottery ticket at quarterback is potentially worth it for you.

I think that is probably the best way to put it is that given where they're at with Tua's contract, checking out some sort of lottery ticket rather than just like getting ex-veteran in there, whatever, probably does make more sense for them. Dolphins have a ton of draft picks, by the way. They have a third round compick. They have a fourth round compick. So if they, it's going to be amazing to watch them take four fast running backs with all these picks and not take a single interior offensive line.

I'm pumped about it. At a certain point, they're just going to have to start moving them to like slot receiver full time, some of these guys. Do you think Jalen Wright can play left guard? I mean, at a certain point, they're going to run out of bodies. You know, they could maybe, you know, add 15 pounds. They can be like their age, you know, move around tight end or something like that. It might be their best bet.

I mean, Jalen Wright weighs 210. That's only like 20 pounds less than Aaron Brewer weighs with their center. So I feel like if you want to have a position switch, that might be the spot to make it happen. Yeah. Two more here. Again, the teams were not hitting today. We talked about on yesterday's show. They're the teams that haven't done a lot.

and you may be freaking out because of it. Chargers, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, Steelers. So if you're a fan of one of those teams, we're not going to hit them today. Just go take a look at that list from yesterday. We've already talked about those teams at length. Raiders and Texans are our last two here. The Raiders have handed out $20 million in guarantees.

It's kind of misleading. Obviously, they're traded for a quarterback. They're about to give him, I don't know. What's the Gino guarantee that's going to be coming? I mean, Kirk got 100 last year, So it's probably going to be about 100. I would imagine it's, yeah, it's at least that. Yeah.

It could probably make the case that like Kirk had a longer track record of success and more winning in Minnesota. So maybe it's slightly higher than what Gino's going to get. But we'll see. So Gino was asking for 45 a year, right? Like wasn't that the idea? Yeah. So Kirk's contract in Atlanta last year. I'm sorry, I got this slightly wrong.

It was 100 million of practical guarantees, 90 million guaranteed at signing. So it was 100. Four years, 180, 45 a year. year with 100 million and guarantees was the Kirk contract. We'll see if Gino comes in in that range. If it's the exact same deal, obviously it's not as large of a percentage of the cap. So it's a slightly diminished version of the Kirk deal. But by all accounts, that's what he's asking for. So that contract and what it looks like will obviously change the math for where the Raiders are so far. But other than that, re-signed Malcolm Coons, Reinsight Adam Butler,

three years, 16.5 million 11 guaranteed. Jeremy Chin, two years 16. with 12 guaranteed. Alex Kappa, two years 11 with 5.5 guaranteed. And Landon Roberts, one year, three million, two and a half guaranteed. I love the Landon Roberts deal

because it's just discount Roberts Blaine. It's the exact same thing the Raider or the Steelers did after losing Roberts Blaine is they signed 11 Roberts for nothing. This reminds me of when I was growing up, my mom refused to buy a name brand soda. So we always had like the Costco version of the soda. So we had like Dr. Thunder at home. Alandon Roberts is just Dr. Thunder Roberts Blaine at this point in his career.

That's also funny too because body typewise, he's like definitely a smaller and discount version of any other player. He's like 5-11 on a good day. He's very thick, but he's just not built like a real NFL linebacker. He's just, he has my heart. So I love this signing so much. Like Spillane is a better player, but God, I love Alandon Roberts. Are the Raiders in a better spot now than they were, I guess, four or five days ago? with the Raider because that's when the Gino trade happened. So I think definitely because I think

Gino is a good player. And also some of the guys they needed to resign up front, I think are good. Like Coons, I think getting him back is good. I love Adam Butler. I think that made a lot of sense. Roberts for Spillane is probably the right bet to make. And then I think signing Jeremy Chin, honestly, to replace Trevin Mary, given how the defense might change a little bit with Carol in there, even though I know Patrick Graham is still the DC. I think that makes sense. So like, I still want to see a little bit more added to the cornerback room specifically. But other than that, I think they've mostly made the right bets this off season. What about Lionbacker?

The fact that it's Atlanta Roberts only and you lost Diablo and Spillane. Is that concern you at all? It does a little bit, but honestly, like, I think with how much turnover they were going to have this off season, I honestly don't think Diablo was like a very good player to begin with. I understand like he's a very flashy player because he's fast, but I just, that's to me, is a player that you can lose and be fine. So that to me is a position that they could fill in day two of the draft.

And I probably wouldn't feel any differently about if they had just re-signed Diablo out there. If you were the Raiders who have a lot of money to spend, and I'm genuinely asking you this question, the Raiders have a lot of money to spend, you know, even with the Gino thing potentially on the board. I guess it's less than I thought. Oh, no. Okay. So this is what Gino's 31 on his current contract hitting the books right now. that number will go down after he signs his extension. They have like 40-ish million dollars

in functional cap space still after making that trade. Are you surprised this is a team that wasn't a little bit more aggressive for some of the veteran corners given the state of that room and given how many of those players were available? Yes and no, like, I think they could have been a little bit more aggressive, but I don't think that they should have been a Carlton Davis-Sert-Sherbarious Ford team. Those to me were the two if you really wanted to swing on like a legit number one corner, that's who you wanted. I think they should have been out of that market. But if they wanted to dip down a little bit and take the Christian Fulton swing or... Or Brandon Stevens. Well, I mean, actually, you know, Pete probably would love him size-wise. So I mean, that actually

could have made a little bit of sense for them. But honestly, I'm not that concerned about it. I think we've actually seen with the way that Graham runs his defense sometimes with them having spurts of being a little bit more too high. I think you can probably sell yourself that, like, that's a position they can take a little bit more slowly, make sure they have the front, you know, kind of squared away, which seemed to be a priority for them this off season. So it would have been nice if they could have swung a corner. But again, this is something that I think maybe they could solve in the draft if they really

needed to. Also, there are still corners available and they're going to still be corners available, right? If you want to sign Rasul Douglas at the end of all of this, you can still do that. See, that makes more sense. for them. Yes. Yeah. I mean, that's, those guys are still out there if you want to do something like that. You know, there aren't that many now. I think more of them have come off the board than you would probably think. But, you know, in theory, if you wanted to chase like a Shaq Griffin,

Rasul Douglas, you know, Mike Hilton is still available if that's something you wanted to do. Like, there are still veteran corners out there. The reason that I'm asking, Kendall Fuller, another good example, the reason that I'm asking this is, To me, the Gino thing signals we're trying to win some games. And I'm just not sure that the defensive personnel is there right now to justify that level of ambition for 2025. I still think there's probably work to do if you want to be competitive on that side. I like Patrick Graham. I like what he's done a lot.

But I still think there are enough holes to patch over on that side where I'm just not sure how it aligns with the very clear signal that we're trying to at least be competitive in the short term. Do you think there's a world, though, where they're just betting on the front being so good that it can make up for the back seven being passable, especially if they add one or two rookies on that side? Do you think that's true, though? Do you think that's true of the quality of the front? Maybe. Like, if Coons comes back healthy and he has a really good year, Christian Wilkins is still a

pretty good player, and Max Crosby is the third best edge rusher in the league. Like, there's, it does take a little bit of projection, but this. already is a very good front. And if they play even slightly above the level that they were playing at last year and everyone stays healthy, like, again, I don't know if it'll be a good defense. It'll be a fragile defense the way it's built where only your front is good. But again, maybe one or two guys work out for them in the draft in the secondary. And it's like, okay, this is this is enough. Here's my worry is that I think they still need a receiver somewhere along the way here. They still need an outside receiver somewhere along the way. So if you look at the first three picks in

this year's draft, I still need. they need an outside corner or two. I mean, two defensive backs probably, no matter how you cut it. I mean, they drafted guys in the fourth round in the last couple years. Maybe they just decide to run with those guys. Maybe that's the plan.

Is it just going to be, we're going to go young and see what we have? Based on the overall trajectory of the franchise, I think that's fine. But again, they have a 35-year-old quarterback. So it's just like, this is one of those things where I'm not sure how it all is supposed to fit together. But so corner somewhere along the way,

outside receiver somewhere along the way. And you sign Kutz to a one-year deal, you probably still need, still do need, like a high level investment along the defensive line, even with Wilkins, Crosby, and Coons in the fold, because Tyree Wilson's given you nothing. So there's no way they can solve all of this in one year. But again, with the Gino trade, I feel like there's a little bit of urgency to solve it quicker than a team that would signal it's rebuilding. So that's my only concern here, is like how do all the timelines start to fall together?

I agree with that. I think with edge rush, they would be fine with picking from whatever the bin is. left of like veterans to like be a capable three or four for them. And just kind of leave like... You can re-sign Coons if it goes well. Yes. It's not a one-year-approved deal now. That makes sense.

And like I keep mentioning it, but like Azizzo Jollari is still out there if they want. Zadaria Smith is on the board now. Like I think they have more options at Edge that I'm not that worried about it if they want to spend still. The D-Bs is where it's starting to get a little bit thin. And again, if you want to go young there and see what you got and Richardson, Jacorian Bennett, etc. like that that's all fine but you have a 35 year quarterback so just how are we trying to square all

this stuff and you know we talked about this regarding the broncos and how you know it doesn't have to be all or nothing you can be spending in free agency while not necessarily competing if you're trying to build a foundation of your roster but that that happens when you draft a that's okay when you're going to draft a quarterback in the first round the next year and maybe that's what they're doing here but again then why trade for gino you know just like there's a lot of stuff here that I'm just wondering what the vision is and I don't necessarily understand all of it immediately. But this is one of those teams where it's important to acknowledge, free agency isn't over. We're four days into free agency.

There are still plenty of moves that can be made where maybe it all starts to make a little bit of sense when we get to the end of March. Last one here, the Houston Texans, 17.3 million in guarantees. We probably could have talked about the Texans yesterday, if we're being totally honest. They kind of fall in between the two show concepts. I think it's easy to say that the Texans are not better off than they were three days ago. I don't think there's really a conversation to be had about that. This is a multi-year thing now when you trade Laramie Tunsell. But the Houston Texans roster is not better now than it was before they traded Laramie Tunsell.

They are definitely worse. Like, you can sell me on how cool Gardner Johnson is for the secondary, all that stuff, whatever. And again, you can sell me on kind of what they did with the. offensive line. I get why they felt the need to purge a lot of these guys out of the building. But signing Lakin Tomlinson and trading anything for Ed Ingram, that does nothing for me. Like that does not move me whatsoever. Like I understand all the things I said about Kenyon Green, but like Tomlinson and Ingram to me do not move me in any positive way. So I, again, I get why they felt they needed to purge some of these guys, but none of the moves they've made to replenish that

spot make me feel any better. I agree with all of that. Like the idea of I get why they wanted to purge it, but I'm not how I still shouldn't feel good about it. I think that's right with the offense. I will say, the defense might just be full of so many banshees that it doesn't matter. Like they're winning games 17 to 12 this year. I mean, maybe that's the plan.

Like maybe the plan is to just be a top three defense, be completely insane. And you just hope that that gives your offense enough of a runway to be fine. But I, I, I know I'm still going to be. watching that film in week six watching the offense being like, oh my God, CJ Stroud is dead again. I just, that's what I'm worried about. And that's me when you have a quarterback of that caliber is always a little bit scary.

So that's what I'm worried about. It's funny because a lot of the response to push back against the tonsill traders been like, well, the offensive line was so bad last year. It was, but he was still the best one. Yeah, he was best one by far. And like, I get like, okay, the fall starts. I don't know why we're doing this. Yeah, like, okay, the fall starts, maybe worse year, his career.

he wasn't great as a run blocker, but he was still a better pass protector than a lot of other left tackles and clearly better than everyone else on the line. And now their option is I think they already announced or there was like some reporting that Titus Howard is going to replace him at left tackle. Like, I just, I don't know, man. I just don't know. Or not Titus Howard. I think Fisher is moving over. Blake Fisher. Yeah.

And they're going to move Titus Howard back to right tackle. I just don't love any of this. It just doesn't inspire me with confidence. Again, if this is a multi-year thing where you're trying to figure out what the right amount of resources is, you didn't want to pay Tunsell again, that's totally fine. But you're taking a step back this year almost certainly at that spot. Your offensive line collectively might be better because of the scheme change. But you're not getting better than Laramie Tunsell at left tackle. Like the line still would have been better scheme change involved with Laramie Tunsell this year.

The funniest part is, now if they're going to put those guys at the tackles, they're just scrounging for interior players. I made this joke earlier. Signing Lake and Tomlinson. So the idea, okay, the Seahawks were the worst offensive line in the league last year. You just on purpose sought out their left guard for nothing. Like you're just kind of throwing him into the mix, but it is very funny that that's where you're looking. And then the fact that you're also looking at the team that went out of their way to pay the most money to interior players this offseason and pick the guy they didn't want anymore at Rikard and traded

something for him is just deeply funny. They're probably going to add to the draft here, but how they're trying to scrounge for options is hilarious. The joke I made in the pilot of 30 Rock, Tracy Morgan is sitting there with a pigeon by a trash can. He's saying, Pigeon, stop eating people's old French fries, have some self-respect. That's how I feel about Nick Asario right now. It's like, stop trading for people's cast off guards, Nick Aserio, have some self-respect. Just a little bit, man. And like, the other thing with Ingram, not only did the Vikings spend a bunch

this offseason to fix it, they had brought in Dalton Reisner at a certain point to, like, try anything to get Ed Ingram off the field. Like, it just, this is not moving me, man. It's not moving me. Yeah. They're banking a lot on the offense and the offensive line coach and everything else making this feel a little bit different. And I'm sure they'll add in the draft.

But are the Texans better now than they were a couple days ago? I think it's hard to make that case. Will they be better in 2026 and 2027? Maybe. And I think that is really the only argument that you can make. And by then, C.J. Stroud is going to command a lot of money, man. Like, I just... That was the other part of it.

We talked about this. Every move they made last offseason, the Diggs thing, the two-year contract for DeNeil Hunter, all of it was they were short-term moves. They were pushing the chips in moves. And now you walked away from the table. Yes. They went all in and walked away. That's right.

I'm mixing my card games here. the table got so cold that you're like, we got to move to a different table. Like, this is just, this dealer is crushing us right now. That's what it feels like when you're watching with how the Texans have approached this offseason. And the fact that they thought they were on a heater a year ago, things have drastically changed in terms of the overall outlook there. All right.

That is all we've got for today. As I mentioned at the top of the show, we're going to do this for the NFC, but we're going to do it on Monday. So we're going to do it on Monday live here on YouTube, 10 a.m. Central, 11 a.m. Eastern, we're going to do the same exercise. It's a little awkward, timing-wise. We didn't want to record it tomorrow and then release the podcast on Monday, just because so much stuff could potentially happen over the weekend. So this is going to be the last show until we do that on Monday. If you want to come back here and hang out with us, I will mention this on all social media

channels, et cetera, but 11 a.m. Eastern Monday, we will be doing the NFC version of this. I should be much better about this. Please like, subscribe. do all the things you're supposed to do with the YouTube channel. If I were better at my job, I would remember to say that more often. But now we're really doing more stuff on YouTube. We would love if you guys were engaged in what we were doing there. So please hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. Would mean a lot to us.

For now, that is all we've got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.