The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - How the run game fits into modern NFL offenses with Mitchell Schwartz

Episode Date: December 22, 2021

What role does the run game play in a successful offense in 2021? Robert Mays is joined by Mitchell Schwartz to discuss what the numbers tell us, the impact on the quarterback and offensive line and the physical element it brings to the offense. Plus, Robert shares parts of his conversation with Colts’ head coach Frank Reich on the topic.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. The athletic football show is presented by State Farm. Because like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today is Wednesday, December 22nd. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today is my good friend Mitchell Schwartz.

Mitch, how you doing, buddy? Doing pretty good. How are you? Good. It's good to have you back. You've been enjoying not being on an NFL team over the last couple weeks, traveling a little bit, getting to enjoy yourself this time of year in a way you typically do not.

That is correct. It's definitely strange, but it's nice. Turns out there's a lot of beautiful places in this country, especially when the snow is falling and weather turns a little bit. So that's been nice. I also did something I haven't done in a while yesterday. I went to an NFL game. We were sitting there, and you also went to your first game as a fan this year in a long time.

I went to my first game as a fan this year in a long time. My buddy texted me yesterday, right before we started recording with Sandow. It's like, do you want to go to the Bears game today? and I didn't have a good reason not to. I was like, God, that actually sounds pretty fun. Like, I know they're not very good. I know it's cold outside,

but I've so rarely- That sounds like good reasons to me. I don't know about you. I so rarely get a chance to go. And I realized as I was sitting there thinking about it, I hadn't been to a game in 11 years as a fan, which is crazy. But then you think about the actual mechanics of that,

and it makes sense. I lived in L.A. from 2010 to 2015, so I didn't live here in Chicago. And they don't, play that many games not on Sunday. I can't go on Sunday. So the only options are Monday and Thursday. I pretty sure they haven't played a home Thursday game since I moved back here. And there's only been two, like three or four Monday games. And for whatever reason, they haven't been very good. I mean, you can list off the reasons. But I haven't gone. So I went with my brother yesterday and met one of my

really good, like lifelong friends there with his wife. And I really enjoyed it. It was a terrible game. but it was just a reminder that, oh, yeah, like, I love this place. I used to go here all the time with my dad. It holds a very special place in my heart. So going and actually taking that in yesterday, I don't know, something I needed. I didn't know that I needed it, but I definitely want to go back sooner than 11 years this time. Yeah, there really is that, like, I mean, for you, it's rooted in memories of your family. But for me, like, going there as a fan, there's that, like, energy what the stadium was like.

And, you mean, you get a sense of it on TV. but like until you're there and you feel it you know i remember growing up as a kid um both my parents went to UCLA games growing up actually the two games i've been to this year double the amount of professional football games i've seen in person that i wasn't playing in before that i'd seen one preseason game that we went to and cal they took us to a raiders preseason game during training camp and i'd been to one of my brother's games other than that i'd never been a spectator at a game until the couple this year but anyway so growing up going to UCLA games there's a USC UCLA game.

USC was rolling at the time. UCLA was actually pretty good that year. It was a close game. And like middle of the fourth quarter, both teams were, it was a timeout, both teams were like fired up in the huddle and they were jumping up and down.

And like the stadium is filled, you know, 70% UCLA, 30% USC. But both teams are excited. So both fan bases are excited. So literally the entirety of the Rose Bowl is like juice with energy and fired up. And both teams are jumping and dancing and stuff. And like it was an electricity. that I've never really seen before.

And it's just like, it's so cool. You don't get those moments, you know, when you're sitting and watching. And, you know, for you to be able to experience that, plus, you know, all the family memories, that's pretty cool. Soldier Field is very strange, right? So it's set off onto the lake. And it's very far away from actual downtown. Like, it's a long walk to get there from where you would park your car, where you

would stop. And a lot of people hate that part of it. And I actually kind of love it. My dad and I used to go, there's the Hilton on Michigan Avenue. And there was a, there's a bar slash restaurant. in the Hilton. And we used to go there before games. And we would have brunch or whatever we ate. And then we'd walk. And you walk kind of through Grant Park and all the way through the museum campus. And it's a good long walk. And I've always enjoyed that part of it. I just feel like the

excitement and the anticipation when you're walking through the tunnels and you're walking with fans and just kind of that energy you feel building as you get closer to the stadium. And then when you leave, it's kind of this time to decompress. And I just remember talking to my dad about the game. And we'd kind of download what happened and how we felt about it. And that's kind of what I was doing last night. I just felt the same kind of feelings when I was talking to my brother. It's like, oh, you know, this part of it and this. And it just, it was, I don't know, there was something about it that even if you do this every single day for a decade, which I have, there's something so different about being there. And even in a loss season, even with a team that is incredibly frustrating to watch

in a game that was unbelievably frustrating to watch, I mean, I was almost comical. At a certain point, all the personal fouls and just the ridiculous breaks that they got, I still come away just kind of thinking, man, I just love it. I love being there. I wish I went more. I'll make a point to go more. And that's my takeaway. My takeaway is football was fun and that I still really enjoy it after all this time. Yeah, it is.

And, you know, part of the fan experience is, like, after the game, trying to get out of the stadium and parking sucks. And, you know, as you say, that's the time to, like, be your own radio station to talk ball. and like, you know, you're the caller on the radio and you're arguing with the host who's, you know, your brother and your friends and your family and stuff. So it's a good ability to just kind of take stock and see what's going on. And, you know, a couple of Chiefs games I went to, I went to, I think it was the Monday Night game against the Giants,

which was a pretty ugly game on the whole. And then I went to the Broncos game a couple weeks ago, which the Chiefs did well. And then they, about halfway through the fourth quarter, you know, people started leaving because it was like a 17 plus point. game and then another score either chief scored or Denver they turned the ball over and then a bunch more people left and by the time we left like still a bunch of traffic that still took a while to get out but it's like you know that's part of the experience like I feel like if you're going to spend

that much money and take all that time to go to the game like the extra six minutes left in the fourth quarter like yeah great stuff might not happen but it's like you're there to watch the game I mean you're not going to save that much time trying to race out of there getting home so uh it just is all part of the fan experience. And like you said, that, you know, time you're stuck in traffic or walk in your car or whatever else getting home, you know, that's your time to, you know, kind of just chat about what you saw and, you know, decompress a little bit. Well, in Chicago, it's like a beautiful setting. You're walking past the museums and you're walking through the park and it's just, it's so different than walking through a crowded parking lot and trying to get to your car.

That's why I was why I've never minded it because it almost feels like a, it's a way to kind of exhale and decompress afterwards. And last night, I just couldn't help it as I was talking to my brother and just thinking about Justin Fields and just trying to think about, all right, what does he do well? What is still a concern? Where does this go from here? What do they need to put around him? And it was just so hard in that setting with those thoughts, not thinking about.

I wonder what my dad would have thought. I wonder how much you would have hated Matt Nagy. I wonder how much he would have just despised this era of Bears football. I wonder, he always had this incredible way of just hedging any hope that he had. I remember I called him the day that the Bears traded for Jay Color. And I was in college. I was my junior year of college. I was in the newsroom at Missou.

And I was just freaking out. I was like, oh my God, I can't believe this happened. And I called him. I was like, the Bears finally got a quarterback. And my father, and just this classic, cynical sports fan way, goes, I'm not sure they did. And I just, I just can't think about what he would believe about Justin Fields and all that stuff. And that's why we do it, right? Like, that's why this shit matters.

It's why it still matters to me. So I don't know. I just wanted to talk about this. that because it's an emotion that I haven't really had to interface with in a while, and I really enjoyed it yesterday, even if the game was borderline on watcher bullet times. Yeah, well, as you're saying, there's always a lot to take from any situation, and, you know, you're taking all the good from it, so that's good. All right, we're doing a show today that I've wanted to do for a while.

I feel like we've danced around this topic. All year in other discussions we've had about the NFL. I want to talk about the run game. And the way that the run game fits into the modern league. And you have been talking about this a little bit recently. There was a PFF story that Eric Igor wrote three or four weeks ago, and you had a lot of thoughts about it. And they kind of fit into some of the thoughts that I've had about it.

And one of the conversations that I wanted to have about it. So I really just kind of wanted to take this any direction we can go with it. Just anything and any aspect of the run game and how it fits into the NFL in 2021. If you look at it, you know, we know this on a general level, right? The average run in the NFL this year has produced negative 0.07 EPA. The average pass is negative 0.02. And that discrepancy is small compared to what it was like the last two or three years. Rushing is less efficient than passing.

We know this. But there's so many different nuances and kind of subtleties to that conversation that I want to chew on. So just on a general level, if I were to ask you, what role you think the run game plays in a successful offense in 2021, what would you say? So to me there's two aspects of that. There's the physical and kind of mental side of it, and then there's the schematic side to it.

Of course, each of those probably have subcategories too. But I think for the most part, you know, the way I started that tweet thread and response is, you know, to talk about the run game and why teams, you know, chase it and strive for it and to not mention this desire to be physical and tough and disciplined, I think, is a disservice to what the run game is about in coaches' minds. Now, this gets into like the physical and mindset side of it where the run game is kind of the most outward showing of your physicality as a team.

You know, you can throw the ball around all day, but it doesn't really feel or seem like, yeah, we're imposing our will physically. Now, I fully understand the goal is to win the game, right? So, you know, doing the things that are most efficient to win the game. I get that. But teams and coaches revert back to this toughness, this discipline, this physicality. And I think that shows in the run game the most because at the end of the day, like, you're, moving people, you're applying pressure, you're applying force, you're, you know, what was the old Joe Moore quote, you know, moving a guy from point A to point B against as well. Like that's kind of

the core tenet of what you're trying to accomplish with the run game. And so you look at, you know, teams over the past couple years and, you know, obviously the chiefs have had a lot of success with their version of the offense, but it's an offense that people say, oh, well, they can't run the ball when they need to. It's not tough enough. You know, the bills last year and this year, it's oh they can't run the ball it's not tough enough when the weather turns or when this happens or when that happens you know they can't rely on that part of the run game and as a player like when you're not showing what you need to on the field you know the coach the coordinator kind of reverts back to we're going to run the ball to prove our toughness you know that you know the offensive

coordinator feels like his offensive line isn't doing well and he wants you to play better in the game and he wants you to show your physicality and your toughness he'll run the ball in third and three he'll run the ball in third and one like that's his way to challenge you you you to see if you can, you know, rise to that occasion. Now, again, this all kind of skirts around the efficiency and all that other stuff, but, like, coaches believe that that physicality, that toughness, that mentality bleeds into everything else you do the rest of the game. You know, it's an offense alignment.

It gives you confidence to run the ball well to feel like you're kicking the guy's ass to move them down the field. That bleeds into pass protection. You know, for the most part, it's a little bit easier to run block. Your mistakes are less, you know, profound. And if you're running the ball 40 times versus throwing the ball 50 times, You know, it just feels better. You have more confidence doing it.

You know, the things, especially offensive tackles, get nervous about, are pass blocking and, you know, the front side of a play action where you got to, you know, run at a guy and then stop and then pass block him. You don't really get nervous about, you know, a double team on the backside of an inside zone. Like, that's something that's fun and you look forward to. So that's kind of that physicality mental side of it. Let's talk about that a second because I, you're saying that you, the idea of running the ball when you have to, I think is so interesting because I had a conversation.

about Frank Reich recently, and I asked him the same question I just asked you. How do you think it fits into the modern NFL and why you need to run the ball? And this was his answer. As a team, you want to impose your will on the other team. So what does that mean in the run game? It doesn't necessarily mean the number of runs, but it means that you can run the ball on your terms. So we use that phrase a lot.

we want to play the game on our terms. And so what you're doing when you're game planning is you're trying to put players in a position and put the team in a position that we can play the game on our terms. And that's kind of how we approach it. And I thought that was so interesting. And you mentioning the chiefs, I wanted to ask you this because I've told the story before. I was having a conversation with David Bakhtiari in the Packers locker room. during the 20, I guess 19th season.

It was Matt Lafleur's first year there. And we were just talking about the differences associated with that coaching staff compared to what they had done literally for years under Mike McCarthy. His entire career, since he had gotten there, he'd only known one way. And if you look at those Packers teams near the end of the McCarthy era, they often led the league in neutral pass rate. They're throwing the ball 65% of the time. The run game was not a part of their overall strategy.

It wasn't nearly as prevalent as it is for a lot of other teams. But they also didn't emphasize it. In practice, in training camp, the ways that they would lay out their priorities, who they wanted to be, their identity, that wasn't what they focused on. And when the floor came in there, things shifted. It had a lot more prominence in just the discussions about what they wanted to be as a team. And it just feels like if you're one of those teams that like Frank Reich just talked about, he said the run game is first and foremost with them.

This is a guy that played quarterback in the NFL, and that's how he thinks about it. And you can see a team like the Colts be able to shift into that physicality. And a team like the Packers now, they can shift into that physicality. It's easier to flip that switch. You've played for Andy Reid, who famously said, I coached, I was a BYU, like every down is a passing down. And you played for Kyle Shanahan. So I'm curious, when you play for those different types of coaches and the ways they think about the run game, can you feel that difference in priority and can you feel how easy it is to flip the switch between

those two things well the priority in practice i would actually say is very similar because coach reed notorious for a pretty tough training camp you know every one of those practices the first team periods of nine on seven like you get to it it's first group against first group eight runs in a row they know you're running it like that's the toughness check you know you obviously have other periods throughout the day and you're running the ball as well so i would say he puts a big emphasis on that. He obviously, you know, as an offensive line guy himself, he knows the importance of, you know, a great offensive line. He understands the importance of, you know, running the ball. He obviously, in terms of play-calling trends, you know, pass, especially in the neutral situations

and early in game. So he gets kind of both sides of that, and I think he straddles that line about as well as anybody. You know, for Kyle, the run game is a little more important, I think, on the early downs and for him to set up the next things because for Kyle, it's this run, this play action, variation of the play action, you know, the tight end doing this on this play. And like he's got six plays that all kind of come off the same formation, play action, tight end coming across look. Whereas Coach Reed, it's, he does a lot of like disguising and, you know, same formations lead to a lot of different things.

But it's a little bit less tied into this like hard play action that's at the core of the pass offense. And that's why, you know, we've talked about Jimmy G not being like the guy for a while because we say, oh, it's an easier offense. And Han schemes up things. Like the run game. is part of that and the style of play action is part of that. And you can't really separate those two, especially in, you know, Kyle's mind.

I know, you know, all the data says, doesn't matter how while you're running the ball, the play action still is effective. But, you know, to him, it all kind of flows together. With Coach Reed, you know, he's obviously throwing the ball a little bit more neutral situations. The past five years, the RPO stuff has extremely skewed the numbers. Because if you're looking at, you know, how many plays are actually called runs for the offensive line, I mean, Alex and now Pat, they probably throw the ball eight to ten times a game on plays that the O-line is blocking run.

So those numbers aren't exactly great because, you know, he's going to seem a little bit pass-heavy. Because for Kyle, I mean, he has a few RPO's, but not too many. His RPO is just hard play action, kind of old school. So they both understand the role of it. And where I was getting with Coach Reed is he does put a huge emphasis on that in critical situations. You know, third and one, you look at this year, it's pretty much. much full back die behind Tray Smith almost every time. Like in you get to the goal line, it's run plays and like, yeah, maybe it's not, you know,

old school New England packed box and they're running, you know, 96 boss or whatever they call it like every team does. But it's still running the ball down there. Like, you know, those critical situations, he leans on it and he wants you to show that like you're up for the challenge and you're tough. And he's also, you know, expecting you to be tough and press protection as well. So both those guys put an emphasis on it. definitely in practice and what it breeds and the confidence and the toughness.

And then in the game situations, I think they're a little bit different because, you know, just schematically they're different. They come from different backgrounds and kind of have a different belief on, you know, how to set things up later in the game. Do you, when you're throwing the ball 15 times in a row, right? And I know you said the RPO's do skewed a little bit, which I think is an interesting thing. We could talk about that. Is it harder to tap into, okay, now we need to be able to run it?

If they're going to give us these boxes play after. or play if we want to run it three or four times in a row, vacillating between those two mindsets within an individual game. Is that easy? You know, it's not like tough. I don't think, you mean, you should be ready to run the ball or throw the ball anytime and you should kind of have the same confidence. But obviously, you see these teams that run the ball and then rely on it and run it over and over. Like, you know, success breeds confidence, like demonstrated ability is what you kind of rely on in terms of confidence and, you know, expecting to do well the next time.

So if you get a bunch of throws and, you know, you get into a rhythm pass blocking. If you get a bunch of runs, you get into a rhythm, run blocking. And so being able to do that and kind of get fed those situations, you know, maybe in the first quarter, you run the ball, I don't know, six, seven, eight times. You run for 18 yards. It doesn't look that great. You know, the coach doesn't love it. He maybe wants to go away from it at that point.

But say you're playing, you know, the Washington football team and they've got these guys who play two techniques and they're playing a much different technique on the guard on these double teams than you're used to as a tackle. And so those first few times, you're kind of feeling it out and you're not sure how to fit, what the guard's going to do, what you're going to do. If you don't get the opportunity to kind of work through that in the game and then like the aha moment, like, okay, we got it. Now we can start rolling them. You know, that's where you need to kind of run a few more times than maybe the number show or your early success because you do get into a rhythm. I mean, I think, again, I don't know what the number say.

I'd catch this all with. I understand the data and I understand, you know, a lot of this stuff is based on what people have put together, borne out that, you know, early run success doesn't have any effect on, you know, late game victory or the score. So I get that a part of it. But it just seems like from experience and from what, I mean, you can listen like Chris Long's podcast or other defense guys talk about it. Like they understand when a team gets rolling, you know, taking on these double teams and taking on these blocks and what it does to them. So it's just running the ball, getting into that rhythm, breathes this confidence and this feeling in an offensive line. And it's really fun. You know, you don't get to be physical like that in everyday life.

So you're doing something that, you know, you can't really do in a normal life. You know, I can't go run into people and move them and, you know, push them against their will. So it's just, it's fun. I mean, it's as simple as that. It's fun. That's what great offense alignment love to do. I mean, if you ask most of us, you know, 95% of people are going to say, you know, what was your best block? like, oh, that time on this run, I, you know, clocked the guy perfect and he went flying. It's not like,

oh, well, I took a great pass set on Von Miller and, you know, lifted his arm at the right time. It's like, no, my probably favorite block is the AFC championship game. We lost against New England, but, like, the touchdown with like two minutes left, we scored to go up. You know, I had an awesome block on Lawrence guy, like hit him perfect, kind of buckled him. And then I threw a shoulder on the linebacker and, like, Damien walked him behind me and I thought we were going to the Super Bowl. Like, I hit him so flush. It was like, it's like a baseball. It's like a home run where you hit the ball like perfect you don't feel anything like that's the way i hit him like that's the memory that sticks with me it's not you know the pass block play so it's just it's fun for us we like to do

it you know we tend to think and feel that we get better as we get more reps at it and so um you know it's a little bit tough when coaches don't rely on it and especially when they're you know so pass heavy that i mean philly is a good example right like they just said all right screw it we're going to run it 45 times a game and they got better at it. Like it happens. Like it kind of is that simple. You need to have a pretty kick assail line to do it. But yeah, it's been borne out that, you know, teams that have a decent amount of talent

up front when they rely on it, they give their guys more confidence and, you know, they can get some better success. You said you can't really tap into this physicality in other areas of life. And you also can't really tap into it when you're throwing the ball 60 times a game. I wanted to play a clip that Brandon Staley had earlier this year that. I thought you appreciated it in the moment and that I wanted to dig into a little bit. What I think that the running game does for a quarterback is it gives you some breathers. And, you know, you don't need a good running game to be a good play action team,

but what you need the running game for is the physical element of the game. There's a physicality to the game that's real, right? If you're just a passing team, okay, there's a physical element to the game, that the defense doesn't have to respect. Okay? And that's the truth. Okay? Because the data will tell you,

you don't need a run game to play pass. That's not. You don't need that. But what the running game does for you, it brings a physical dimension to the football game. And what the running game does, that the passing game does not, is the running game forces the defense

to play blocks and to tackle. That happens on a run play. You must play blocks and you must tackle. And the passing game, those things don't have to happen. It's hard not to listen to that and smile, right? And when you just think about it, right? When you hear that, because it makes so much sense intuitively.

But it hasn't been put in those terms before. And I think that's why people have attached themselves to a lot of the things he said this year is he's a very good communicator and he distills these ideas in a way that are very easy to understand. So when you hear him say that, what is your first reaction? Like bingo, that's what we're trying to say. Like he says it very well. it also comes from a guy who is a defensive mind of guy. And so he understands that and from the guy who's gone forward on every fourth down, apparently, this whole season. So it's not like he doesn't understand efficiency and numbers and things of that nature. So it's like coming from the right source, set in the right way. And we talk about, you know, balance doesn't need to be, you know, 50, 50 run past. Balance needs to be in any situation. You can run a gap scheme, run a man scheme, play action, short throw, screen, do all these things. The percentages don't have to be.

50% run 50% pass. Well, again, that balance is forcing the defense to play, you know, all those things as well. So if you don't have a running game and you don't have, you know, physical run game at that, you know, they now don't have to respect it. And so they can just, as he's saying, not have to play blocks. There's that element of physicality that you just lose out on from the defensive perspective. So it changes what they do. He's saying it literally changes what we do.

We don't have to respect another team's run game and their physicality. You know, I don't really know how else to put it if, you know, People listen to that and, you know, don't get swayed. I guess I don't know what else they're looking for because there's the whole schematic side we haven't even gone into. You know, we're still talking about like what that physicality and that mentality brings to a team and what the opposing defense has to do to prepare for it. So I want to talk about the mental side of it just a little bit more before we get to the

schematics of it because I think that that mindset and that thought process and even the emotions of it associated with the defensive coach are really interesting to me. I was talking to a defensive coordinator last week about this. And he said, pretty frankly, there are coaches that I know are not committed to it. If you give them long enough, they will give up on it. Even if you're giving them advantageous looks, even if you are begging them to run the ball, they don't really want to do it. So it becomes this staring contest of, I just don't believe you.

Like, I'm going to call your bluff here. And the other side can also be true, right? You tap into the emotionality and the mindset associated with defensive coaches. And the same defensive coach said to me, you cannot get tied up in the machismo of this. You can't sit there and think, oh, they're ripping it off five yards of carry. I can't let them do this because that's less efficient than them throwing the ball for five yards an attempt. But it feels so much different in the moment. And I think that is just something that is impossible to quantify, but really does matter here, where you just have this kind of ethos associated with the sport that you don't want to allow that, even if allowing that may ultimately be in your best interest.

Yeah, so I thought about that a lot, which is, you know, defense is kind of predicated on stopping the run. And, you know, as we talked about, if run game brings physicality. toughness to an offense, you know, if they're doing their job, the defense then feels like they aren't tough, they aren't physical, you know, they're not doing what they need to do. Again, this is the way coaches and players feel. So this is what football has, you know, kind of been about for 100 years and toughness and physicality and discipline. And the run game is the example of that on the field. Now, I know there's many other examples of it, but like that's just how it feels as we're saying. So if you're on defense, you know, the reason play action works regardless of run game is because

the linebackers are taught to read their keys. So, you know, a guy is human. nature. Like, if you see the movement, you react to the movement. Right. And again, 100 years of football says that like if it looks like a run, we're going to go be physical and attack it and stop them from doing it. So I thought about, is there a point where linebackers just play flat-footed and then react to run late? Like, I've said this so many times. I know. It's like when eventually they, you think there's going to be a tipping point where defenses just say, screw it, we're just going to do that. As the coach is saying, like, they have to be able to say we're okay with five or six yard runs because that's still better than them throwing on us.

I think this is, I think we might have even talked about it, the Belichick Super Bowl against the bills where they let their running back, you know, run all over them and they said, all right, Jim Kelly's not beating us. Like they're not throwing it on us. The running back, I think it was Thurman Thomas, had a bunch of yards and a couple touchdowns and they lost because, you know, that's what worked and that's what the data is showing still works. But to be able to commit to that and believe it and just like let it happen to.

you, again, it just feels terrible. And so it's really tough to do. Vance Joseph told me a story last month, and I was talking to him about the 2013 game that the Broncos played against the Patriots and the influence that it had on him as a coach. And in that game, I mean, that was the year where Peyton Manning was shattering records, right? And that Bronco's passing game was unstoppable, literally unstoppable in so many cases that year. And the Broncos ran for like 200 yards in the first half against that Patriots team. in 2013. He just let them run the ball the entire game. And the Patriots won. They won that game.

Peyton Manning had his worst game of the season. And they just let them run the ball the entire game. But that's so incredibly difficult to do. And I want to play one more Frank Reikko here and ask you about it because this is a concept and an idea that comes up a lot when we're having this discussion about the hidden aspects of this and the things that maybe aren't as easy to quantify or aren't as easy to understand. We're going to run into a heavy box sometime without, and we're going to be outnumbered, and that's going to happen more than a couple times.

And you've still got to be able to make yards, and we will do that, we have done that, and we'll continue to do that, and Jonathan will continue to make great runs against that, because, you know, the offensive line can still create an opening, you know, or push that we can still gain yards. You're just not going to have as many explosive plays or be quite as productive. But that's okay. It's like, it's like a, I always use the illustration of a boxing match.

And, you know, sometimes you just got to throw a body blow. You know, you just got to just lay one in there. And you know what? It's only going to be a body blow. It's not going to be a knockout. But if we can get four yards on this run, mission accomplished. Talk to me. So the point he makes at the end, if we can gain four yards, you know, like you can't do that and just gain two yards every time and think, like, all right, it'll turn around.

You know, it's very cliche. And again, this has been disproven in the numbers. But coaches like to say, you know, in the first quarter, three and four yard runs, second quarter that turns to four and five, third quarter, six to eight. And fourth quarter, you're ripping off 10 plus yard runs. Now we have a pretty good example of the Colts doing this. Just happened three days ago. Yeah, fourth quarter got a run at situation and did the effect of the rest of the game, the physicality of it, you know, cause High Tower to run too far or the safety to not come up strong enough or, you know, fish had a great block clearing out that side. Maybe the detackle just couldn't hold up quite as well and that's what opened the hole and made the linebacker run too far. You know, so those are the types of things that, you know, we feel like matter and have an impact.

And I've said this too, you know, there aren't too many times. where the run game really does just take over the whole game, that physicality just like makes another opponent. You know, we always talk about breaking their will. Like that happens, you know, two, three, maybe four times a year for the really good rushing teams. Chasing that and having really poor efficiency the rest of the game, the first three quarters, to like wait for the body blows to take hold when you're not good enough to like make

that happen and not good enough to be in a situation where you're able to make that run at the end of the game to seal the game for the touchdown, that's dumb. I don't agree with that. I don't think you should run the ball blindly and just assume that like body blows are going to take over. You know, if you're a boxer and you're not hitting the guy in the body and you're waiting for eighth, ninth, tenth round for him to tire out and it's not working. He's got you, you know, five to two on the cards and you're realizing like he's not tiring down. He's not getting, you know, beat down by it. Like you should stop that strategy.

You should start, you know, looking for the knockout yourself. You should start doing things that are going to work to win you that fight. So I agree with that. You can't chase this perfection of run game and body blows and wearing them down and letting the run game take over at the expense of winning or at the expense of doing other efficient stuff. It has its place and I think you should lean on it. But again, there's a point. And so when I put out the whole thing responding to the PFF stuff, like I didn't explicitly say that. And I think, you know, I kind of came out more from the O line Twitter perspective.

And so, you know, kind of all the quote unquote, you know, football people agreed and some of the analytics people, you know, said, oh, we can't find that number, so it's not true. And again, I don't believe that you should chase that at the detriment of winning games. And, you know, to chase something that only happens a couple times a year and lose games because of it. But I think there is value in kind of giving your guys one every once in a while, right? And just saying, yeah, as an offensive tackle, you know what runs I love? Duo on the backside, because I got to pass block and just stand. there and take a playoff and I don't have to bash my head against Lawrence guy, you know, head up. But even that Quentin Nelson thing, that Quentin Nelson clip of that game against the Bucks where,

and I had a long conversation with Frank Greck about this and him just kind of laying out their thought process of why they were continuing to throw the ball in the second half. We had a perfect second quarter running the ball or throwing the ball against the Bucks. If I had come out and run the ball three times in a row and punted to Tom Brady while we're only up 10 points with 30 minutes left in the game, that's not smart. That is not a good way to do this. So, but at the same time, I understand both sides of it where you're not trying to pound your head against the wall, but there is an actual clip of Quentin Nelson going to his coach and saying, call a run. Call a run play that's not an RPO, but we want it.

And there's just something to that. Well, so that's the Harbaugh clips that come around with like asking his guys, do you want to go for two? Like, he knows that he's already going to go for it. You don't ask that question if you don't know the answer. But like, you want to give your guys some agency. So you want them to feel like they're part of the process. You want them to be confident. Again, in the Twitter thread, I talked about everything we know about the mental side of things.

You know, I listen to your podcast a bunch. You promote mental health and going to a therapist and stuff like that. Like everything we know about mental health and confidence, well, the run game breeds confidence in the offensive line. So I find it hard to believe that like a positive run game where Olin are feeling good about themselves doesn't bleed over into better success and better success in the past game and all those other things. thing. So, yeah, making you guys happy, making them do something they want to do and that they're successful with, it's got to have an impact. Like, I just, I believe that. And so, um, that's something that, you know, and won't really, I think we're at a little bit of a standstill in terms of, you know, what players feel, what coaches feel and what the data says. And

as we progress, maybe there's some things that come out and, you know, we find the right things to look for or kind of figure out more specifically something that, that shines through. All right. Let's get to the kind of strategic side of this. because there's a whole other part of this to talk about, like you mentioned. What do you think is the most important consideration on that side of it? If I was asking you where the strategic part of this really comes in, what's the first thing that you would think of? It's safeties. It's, you know, whether a team can play with two deep safeties or one deep safety, you know,

we've seen what two deep safeties can do to especially these prolific passing offenses that are higher efficiency and the better teams. well, being able to have an extra guy back there, you know, can shut some things down and maybe you can double, you know, Tyreek and Travis Kelsey, or maybe you can double a guy and then have another guy sit in the middle of the field. And so a run game, essentially what coaches are looking for in the run game is who's the unblocked defender? You know, it's going to be a safety or a corner.

Ideally, it's a corner because, you know, theoretically, that's usually the lesser tackler on the team. But you're just looking to get a running back, too, a safety. So I think, you know, part of the proliferation of the RPO's and kind of the advantage throws and being able to, you know, make that happen is teams realize like, okay, if we call a run, close our eyes and just try to cram it in there, that is really inefficient. What is efficient is, all right, well, they're prepared for the run and now that opens up more voids in the defense and we can take advantage of that with, you know, an advantage throw,

which is not an RPO. That's just like, you know, Green Bay with the slant, like, oh, DeVante he's got space, we're going to throw the ball. Then there's the RPO, which, you know, again, plays on defenders and kind of forces them to choose run or pass. And so I think teams are realizing, you know, we can't just call all these run it to run as we call it, which you have to run the play that's called. You know, we need some other options on a specific run play because it's really hard to just call it and have it be successful.

So the good teams and especially the RPO teams that are smart and go about it that way, you know, all those plays I talked about, those eight to ten plays a game that, you know, the quarterback throws it, but a run was called. Well, they're talking about efficiency on the pass and they attribute that to the run. You know, Frank Reich talked about it one game. He literally went through and said, well, we had seven other plays we called for Jonathan. Four of those, Carson threw. We were three for four for whatever, 35 yards. You know, that's really good efficiency. We like that. Like, he made the right decision. Three of the other things like this happened, blah, blah, blah. But like he said, we attribute throws on RPA.

as efficient plays and efficient run plays. So again, that data kind of gets skewed because if you just look at the chiefs offense, you're looking at efficiency in the run game and it's only like 3.8 yards of carry or whatever, well, that's taking out all the plays that Pat decided, hey, the throw is better. We're going to get more efficiency here. I can give it to Tyreek for six yards and let him make a play. So that also gets lost on the data too. But that's been a little long-winded.

To get back to it, you know, it's basically safeties. Can you force another safety down in the box? because that opens things up on the back end and allows for more vertical pass attack and an easier way to throw the ball, which is already a higher percentage. So I want to have, you mentioned the RPO aspect of this,

and I want to play one more clip from Frank Craig talking about that. You know, why is Jonathan averaging the number of yards per carry and having the explosive plays that he has? Is because A number one, and these are in order and in priority. He's a great player. I mean, he is a rare talent in every way.

Number two, you've got one of the best offensive lines in football that are opening up the holes. Number three, you've got receivers who are committed to the run game. And then number four, I do believe that the coaches are, and the way we're game planning is we're not just with some of the things that we do with RPO's and other things, he's getting a lot of looks at, he's getting a lot of advantageous looks. Yeah. Because we're not just saying, here you go, do your thing, run it up in there no matter how many people are up there.

We don't do that as much. So I think that part of it is interesting. And I think that obviously the RPO decisions that you're going to make are in part driven by box counts, right? It's how the look is and how what a team wants you to do. And I think that part of it is fascinating to me. I spent so much time this offseason thinking about, all right, as the league shifts a certain way, as we get more shell coverage and two deep safeties, as boxes lighten, what is the offensive response going to be? And if you look at the numbers, this is real, right?

So through weeks one through 15 in 2020, the average NFL team faced 400,000. 15 plays with seven or eight guys in the box. This year through the first 15 weeks, it's 384 to 7.5% drop. It's not monumental, but that shift is happening. So it really does feel like we've gotten to a place where, again, it's can you run it when you need to run it? Can you run it when you want to run it? When they're giving you the looks, can you run the ball?

And it just feels like the shifts in defensive philosophy and the emphasis teams are putting on limiting explosive passing plays, it's necessitating an ability to run the ball into those looks and run it well when they give them to you. Yeah, and so that's the thing that made the Rams special last year with Staley is they played all these two high looks, which just means by the box count, you are equal or lesser. And so those are good situations for the offense to run the ball. But they have Aaron Donald, they had Brockers who was really good. there are articles, I think you might have even written one about the specific techniques that Staley taught where, you know, defense alignment are, you know, penetrating on field, but they're kind of playing a gap in a half and he had all these little cues and they were very smart about stuff. And so they were able to essentially play the run game as good as like any other defense, but with one less guy with, you know, a six-man box against the nickel looks and, you know, seven-man against the base looks, where other teams, you know, the Pete Carroll, you know, cover three where Jamal Adams is in the box.

and that's camp chancellors in the box. Like bringing that guy down becomes part of, you know, the run fit. And, you know, obviously they were great for a while because, you know, the scheme was good and they had awesome players. But I think we're realizing that with the explosive pass games, you know, having those two guys deep is what you need to do. And it should be run advantage for the offense. And, you know, with the chiefs in particular, like, that's part of the equation as you look at the run game. And again, we've talked about you kind of just look at, all right, Darrell and Clyde, average 3.9 yards of carry. you know, it didn't really feel like they were dominating that much.

But it's like they always have the numbers. They've always got the numbers. So they should be able to rip off these six, seven, eight yard runs. It just kind of shows like how difficult that is. And, you know, it is pretty tough to do it. And so it's kind of this cat and mouse. And, you know, as you're saying, we'll see, I think, run game probably catch up. Because even in those, you know, like quote unquote lighter boxes, the RPO's are still open.

You know, a good way to put it is in a past game, you know, you've got read one to read two to read three to read four. You know, in the run game, you used to be handoff, read one, that's all you've got. Well, now it's a handoff or the throat of Tyreek or the throat of McColl or the throat of this guy. And so now you're putting reads into your run game, where before it was one read and over, you know, imagine if the past game you just had to go with the thing that was called that you assumed was going to work against the defense and those guys just had to make

it work and that was the only thing you could do, well, the past game would look pretty crappy and not quite so good. So like adding options on to runs. And of course, old school used to be, all right, you know, call this run. And if the look doesn't look good, we'll kill it to this run. Or, you know, call this run. And if the safety's in the box, we'll kill it to the pass because, you know, we've got an advantage there. Now it's just like, we'll line up.

And we've got four different things we can do on any given play. The runs one of them and the pass is three of them. Or the quarterback run is one of them. And there's two pass options. So it's just adding on options and making it so that what historically was a less efficient thing is becoming more efficient. because there's these other things you can do to counter what the defense is doing. All right. Is there anything else you feel like we need to hit with this?

Anything that you would kick yourself for not giving to the listener before we get out of here? I would just kind of go back to, you know, I know the community that studies the data and looks at it and stuff like we find inefficiencies. And one of the inefficiencies is relying on the run game, especially on early downs and putting yourself in. of these less advantageous, you know, third down situations, the second at longs. And we say, like, oh, this coach is dumb and, you know, he should be doing this more and he should be doing that more. And I agree with a lot of the stuff that comes out. But, like, coaches keep running the ball this much.

And every single time the Seahawks are in trouble, Pete Carroll says, we need to get back to the run. We need to establish the run. We need to do this. Like, it clearly matters for these coaches and they feel like there's something there. And I get that, you know, science is there to find things that are true and that aren't. and to kind of parse those out and make us see that just because you feel it doesn't mean that that's true in reality. But I would just say that, you know, when the players talk about it and we say we feel like this or we feel like that, like, again, I can disagree with, you know, needing to run the ball 40 times and doing it at the expense of, you know, a couple, you know, early play actions or, you know, of course, letting Russ Cook hasn't actually worked.

But, you know, I can understand that, like, these are the things we feel. This is why it's important to us. this is why coaches keep putting an emphasis on it. Maybe you don't need to do it 40 times a game, especially in the first two or three quarters. And those two things can marry. And just like, it's clearly important for coaches. So figuring out why it's important in understanding its role, you know, I think is something that's important for, you know,

the side that kind of just looks at the data. And, you know, for the other side realizing like, hey, maybe, you know, four times a game, it doesn't seem like much. once a quarter on first down, you know, call the play action or call the quick, you know, smart pass instead of running the ball. And maybe you have a little bit more success. And, you know, those two sides kind of meeting closer to the middle and seeing where that goes, you know, it just seems like there's a bit of a tipping point with the two sides and, you know, I wish we could all be a little bit more collaborative and, you know, kind of trying to find the answers together.

This is something that I've definitely softened stances that I've had on over the last couple years and it's something that I've tried to be more open-minded with and more curious about because this is to me one of the biggest stories of the entire season is when you look at some of these teams and you look at the way that they're built and the way that they define themselves and how they want to accomplish what they're trying to do the bucks to me are a great example right you talk to defensive coordinators about playing the bucks there's no good answer right you want to play tom brady this is the past heaviest team in the NFL in terms of neutral situation pass rate. They're second in Russian DVOA. If you're going to give them those boxes,

they're going to take them. They can run the ball downhill at you. And that is terrifying. Defenses have gotten so good this year. And they haven't figured it out, but they're definitely, the gap is smaller than it was two or three years ago between the best passing teams and the defenses in the NFL. And I think that's for a lot of reasons. It's more too high coverages. It's more zone coverages, period. Defenses are smart. Defense of course, coordinators are smart. Well, that's not go too far. If you have a team that throws the ball really, really well, there are answers to slow that down.

And if you try to tap into those answers, what is the counter that an offense has? And to me, if you look at, in my opinion, the best most successful offense is in football this year. This year specifically, the first ones that come to mind are the bucks, the Packers, and the Chargers. Those are the three teams at the top of DVOA. And if you look at the way those teams are structured, they're very comfortable running the ball. They want to run the ball. The Packers and the Chargers have pretty advantageous numbers, despite what their quarterbacks look like in large part because of their willingness to run the ball and the way

that they've constructed some of these offenses. And I think the Colts are another really good example. I just feel like having a team, like Frank Reich said, that can tap in to that approach when they need to. When you have to flip that switch, when the defense is giving you this, can you hurt that? Can you make them pay for the way that they're playing against you?

And I think that we've seen this season especially, the teams that can do that are at a decided advantage over the teams that can't. You know, the bills, I think I kind of shrugged at the idea last year that they needed to be better at running the ball or they needed to run the ball more because their passing game was so dynamic. It was so explosive.

It was so exciting. And in my mind, it's like, well, they're a top three offense. Who gives a shit that they can't run the ball as well as you want to? This isn't a one-year thing, right? This isn't a one-year consideration. It's not an eight-game stretch. It's not one playoff run. These are years-long things.

These are multi-year things. Teams are going to respond to the way that you play. The bills faced more man coverage than any other team in the league last season. Now they don't. Teams are playing them an entirely different way than they did in 2020, and they have not had a good answer. And this goes even one step further. If you're a team that plays a ton of single high,

or if you're an offense that sees a ton of single high because teams are worried about your run game, guess what you can see? Only a limited amount of coverages. The Colts see a lot of man coverage, a lot. The Niners see a ton of cover three. The Vikings see a ton of cover three. that's another aspect that makes the game easier on your quarterback in a way that's impossible to quantify

simply because of the structure of your running game. I think there are going to be so many aspects to this that are worth watching over the next few years. And how do we quantify the running game? How can we not quantify? What do we need to? All these kind of quiet, hidden aspects to it that I feel like are really one of the biggest stories in football. And I really want to see if we can keep trying to crack that nut here as we keep having these conversations. Yeah, I'm with you. So I guess the counter to that is people would say, okay, well,

the 49ers, you know, they're seeing all this man coverage and, you know, single high looks because the safety has to be dropped down to respect the run game. You know, if that's the case, it should make passing easier and better and they should be scoring more because that's more efficient anyway. So like that should show up in the data that like their offense should be that much better because it should already like be baked in there. And if that actually had the market success that we're talking about, then, like, they'd be a top five offense type of thing. Now, I know some of the EPA stuff like Jimmy's number two over the last five years, and Nick Mullins is in the top eight or whatever.

Their two quarterbacks are like, all three quarterbacks are in the top 20s, you know, over the last five years. So it's like the quarterbacks have clearly shown efficiency. Maybe the, you know, offenses haven't been historic, like, you know, the chiefs or the Ravens a couple years ago. So, like, I get that side that says, like, if this had such an impact and, like, it should show up and like you know if you're running the ball so well in the first half that a team that wants to play too high is forced to play single high then the the offense is now adjusted in the

second half now they start throwing the ball they're going to win the game more often like people have looked at that and they haven't quite found that correlation so like I get that but as you said it just seems like there's so much that goes on and there's so many variables that like to me I guess I just believe that there's something out there that we haven't quite picked up on and eventually it'll come to light and I'm not sure what that is like there's a ton of smart people that look at this all the time so I get that you know they're smarter than me they've run the numbers and all that stuff it just um it's almost one of those like prove the negative things you kind of can't do it but it's just like it just seems like at some point there will be something that comes out as we get

more data more GPS numbers more you know speed more everything and uh you know we'll be able to kind of shed light on uh what we've been talking about and what you know we think is true. I mean, there are a lot of analytically driven teams in the NFL that are heavily invested in these ideas, the Ravens, the Browns, the Colts even that are some of the run heaviest teams in the NFL. These guys understand the numbers. They absolutely understand. And even those teams, they still, I mean, the story of the first 10 weeks of the year was Baltimore being so, you know, pass heavy from what they've been, you know, the Browns run a lot of play action and throw the ball early and then they really rely on the run game later you know the Colts can kind of do whatever

they need to and you know they can have Carson throw it 35 times or they can have them throw it six times and still win but those those teams like as you kind of said when a team needs to run you know in the second half when you've got the lead in critical situations when you want to just you know make your dominant left guard happy like it's nice to be able to do that and so having when teams are daring you to do it right like having a team that's able to do that and has, again, the physicality, the toughness, the technique to make that happen, you know, that's what really gives a team full balance. All right.

This is an ongoing conversation that I'm sure we will touch on in every way, shape, and form many, many times over the next six to eight weeks, over the next six to eight years. It's something that I will always be interested in. Appreciate you doing it with me, buddy. Guys, thank you very much for listening. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I would sincerely appreciate that. Please subscribe to The Athletic.

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