The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - How this year's big WR trades have shaped the 2022 NFL season with Matt Bowen

Episode Date: October 12, 2022

Wide receiver movement was one of the defining storylines of this NFL offseason. After all, you don't see guys like Davante Adams, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill traded all that often. To no one's surprise, they've fundamentally changed the teams they're on now. They've also completely altered the landscape of the league. If you need further proof of that, look at where the Eagles and Packers are in the standings. Matt Bowen joins Robert Mays to break it down on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube4:31 The Dolphins with Tyreek Hill14:44 The Eagles with A.J. Brown20:20 How Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts are authoring their futures29:30 The Raiders with Davante Adams39:00 How the Chiefs have thrived without Tyreek, and why the Packers have floundered without Davante Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays joining me today from ESPN, Matt Bowen. Matt, thank you very, very much for joining us today. What's going on? Robert, how are you? I love doing these with you. It seems like we get a couple of year in, just digging into one topic that I always find interesting, and you are just someone I love chewing on this stuff with.

And one of the things I really wanted to dive into here early in the season is that all offseason, you know, all of free agency, all the lead up to the draft, the biggest conversation we had about player movement and T-building was about these receiver traits. All of the movement. Just think about how many guys were traded. Tyree Kill gets traded for a first, a second, multiple other picks. Devante Adams goes for a first and a second to the Raiders. A.J. Brown gets traded for a first round pick to the Eagles. On a lesser note, you have Amari Cooper traded for a late pick. So many guys where these huge holes were given up because teams were like, we need one of these dudes.

And then on the other side of this, you have the teams that those guys left and the holes that those players left and what has meant for their offenses. So that's what I want to do today. I want to talk about the teams that traded for these guys and what the returns have been like so far as we sit about a third, a quarter of the way into the season. and then look at the teams that are facing life without Tyreek Hill and Devante Adams. I'm with you. I'm with you. You know, what's interesting to me is Green Bay is the most interesting. I know we'll get to them, Robert, but just how they're going through such a major transition right now at the wider senior position.

One, because of the youth they have in their roster. Also, the youth in terms of availability, Christian Watson has been banged up, has not been healthy. So you haven't seen really a lot of growth with him, really a lot of use with him in the past game. But that's the one team that really jumps out to me because it's Aaron Rogers, right? Yeah. I mean, it's Aaron Rogers. It's one of the most natural thrower, in my opinion, this is Dan Marino. And you just took away Devante Adams, who's an absolute difference maker.

And a scheme transcendent player, and I use that term scheme transcendent. What I mean, Robert, is you can put Devante Adams in any pastime. It doesn't matter. You want to throw intermediate routes? Okay. You want to press teams down the field out of the slot? You want to take the vertical outside one-on-ones? Okay.

whatever you want to do offensively, he can fit. So it's not a player you have to shape your offensive round, so to say, that he's going to fit with any style of quarterback because he is that talented. And the hole that it is left in Green Bay and how they're trying to supplement that loss of production. You know, you can go back to the Sunday morning game. We all watched when they played out in London against the Giants. A lot of RPO's, right? A lot of RPO's, a lot of clips, let's get the football out.

Now, obviously that it can be tailored at times, the defensive coordinator, the amount of different looks and the multiple defensive backs of the Giants using that football game. But the ball's come out of Aaron Rogers' hand really quickly right now. And that tells you, you know, that's something we can get into another time. But how they're trying to adjust to not having one of the most dominant wide receivers are seen over the last decade. We're going to dig into that and all the ways that the Packers have had to try to tweak things where they're struggling. I want to start with what's gone well.

Let's talk about the Eagles and the Dolphins so far this season. So if you look at the list, top five EPA per dropback quarterbacks in the NFL so far. At the top, no surprises. Patrick Mahomes is the most efficient quarterback in football, which I guess it's somewhat surprising without Tyree Kill, and we will get into that. Second is Josh Allen. You have these two guys that the note on which we left them last season in that game in Kansas City that we're going to see rematch of on Sunday, they looked like the two best quarterbacks in the NFL. So that I think you can predict and understand.

Third is Gino Smith. That's a whole different conversation that we can get into a different time. He very much is. We've talked about it a lot on this show. We have loved watching him. Also in the top five, Tuitagabala Lawa and Jalen Hertz. So at first glance, if we're just using that as the major metric here, how efficient are these passing games after these receiver moves have been made? These are successful.

They have gotten huge boost to them throwing the football by going out and making these moves. but I want it to be a little bit more nuanced than that. I want to kind of dig down one, two layers deeper into what this has looked like. And I want to start with Miami. When you think about the plan they've had for Tyreek Hill and how it is reshaped what their passing game looks like with Mike McDaniel and Tua, where do you think that starts? It starts as the quarterback because I think you have to build your offense around the throwing trade to the quarterback, right?

And if you look at what Tua is, he's a short to intermediate, really, them thrower who can deliver the ball location and inaccuracy, right? That's what he is. That's what you saw. No, it doesn't mean he can't throw the ball down the field. No one is saying. I'm saying what he does best is a ball out with speed. It's thrown to the proper shoulder based in the leverage of the defensive back where the window was going to be. There's anticipation involved. You look at Tyree Kill. I have the number right in front of me right now, Robert. I have down Tyree Kill, air yards per target, 9.64. Yeah. Okay. So that messes with what they do offensive.

A lot of skiing concepts in Miami. A lot of crosses, a lot of overs. A lot of plays where Tyree Kiel can get those isolation matchups outside. And he's so sudden and fast off the football and so threatening to a defensive back that if you are an off man or an off technique, let's say, in cover three or even an outside quarter, you are going to open and run. And when you open and run, that allows him to throw, you know, the slam on the brakes, turn around and run a curl, come back, a short in-break. or whatever it may be because you can create that cushion for it. And again, that's a rhythm and timing throw for two-off. And I think when they can get explosive is using Tyreek Hill and obviously Jalen Waddle in that offense as highly productive players after the catch.

Because again, that goes back to what Tua is. You can throw the crosswood and it turns into a catch-and-run situation. You can throw the dig route. You can throw the skinny post, which we've seen with Jalen Waddle this year, and it turns into an explosive play. Now it's time to strike up the band and play. the fight song, right, after throwing a 12-yard pass. And I think that's what they want to do because they can still be heavily scheming. They can use motion, movement, both pre and post-snap.

They can use heavy play action, get the window they want, and Tua is going to put it there on time. And that's the thing to put it on time. And it's not, look, it's not easy to throw to receivers who run four 240s. It's not, even on the cross-road. That's not easy to do. It's easy to miss those. And he does it very often. So I think it's a great use of, personnel and explosive play personnel that fits into a heavily schemed or heavily defined throwing offense that also fits the traits of your quarterback. I was bummed. Obviously, the two injury was upsetting and unsettling on several different levels.

But part of the reason that it was even more disappointing is that watching them early in that game, they are unbelievably compelling on offense right now when they have all of their pieces. When you watch that first half against Cincinnati, and I just, I've said this 100 times. I absolutely love the NextGen stats vision on the Thursday broadcast and being able to watch the All-22 in real-time. And it's such a game changer. And you're watching the first quarter, first half of that game.

What that offense feels like coming at you, I can't even imagine what it's like to prepare for them at this point. Because what it does in terms of the fear it strikes in you from them pushing the ball down the field, but also the horizontal stretch that they create with all of that motion and the way they're using these guys. The space that they manufacture within that offense is unlike anything else in the league right now because of those two guys that they have in the way that they use Tyree Kill. And Tua is so, so good at placing the ball into space, into condensed spaces. That's really what he does well.

If you think about just all of the throws that he's fitting over linebackers on the second level of the defense, he works in that short area of the field. Well, that's what he does. And it's just a really good mesh of the plan, the personnel, and what the traits of the quarterback are. And that's what you've seen from them so far. Tyreek is sixth in the NFL and target share. He's getting 29% of two his targets right now. They are using him as much more than just a decoy, but they're using him as an underneath threat as much as a deep one.

And that's what I wasn't sure about coming into the season, what it would ultimately look like. His deployment, how they would use him as a receiver, how they would use him as a space creator and someone with gravity. and it all seems to be coming together in a really cool way when all of those guys are on the field. I agree. And, you know,

and looking at this from a broad scope, it's about efficiency as a passing output as well, right? And that brings up a great point of what you said is deployment because all summer we heard about, well, how are they going to throw the deep ball? You know, how many teams really throw deep ball? It's consistent. Not made anymore.

No. I mean, this isn't dropped back and throw the ball 45, 50 yards on the field. That's not how you win football. ball games. This is an efficient. That is a low percentage passive. And look, everyone schemes the verticals. We see that. And those, I call them shot plays. When you have the field position, when you

have the game situation, when you want to take a shot over the top of the defense, everyone has that. But it's more about efficiency. Use the term horizontal stretch. I agree with. And the thing I will always say, I'll play in that offense. And that offense goes back to Kyle Shanahan, and it goes back to Matt LaFleur, and it goes

to show him. Ray. It's how much stress that put on your eyes is a defensive player. Yeah. because all that motion and movement causes hesitation. And as a football player on Friday nights, you can get away with hesitation and recover. Sometimes on Saturdays, but not on Sundays, you just can't. You take a false step, you take a poor run read or poor pass read off your initial alignment. You are not going to catch up the Tyree heel on a crossword. You're going to create natural coverage voids, and that goes to what you're saying about, too.

Being efficient throwing the football to space, and now you're in a situation where we have to create positive angles. Tyree Kiel and Jalen Waddle. You kidding me? You're not going to do it. It's such a great point. It's consistently dangerous. It's such a great point because when you watch San Francisco, like I love Debo Samuel.

Debo Samuel is such a cool player. You know, all of the motion that they've used over the years. When you crank that juice factor up by 1.5, 1.8, and you're still doing all of that stuff, when you're creating angles for yourself by structure, and then you have angled, destroyers as your receivers, these issues start to compound for defenses. The margin for error that disintegrates and disappears when you're using all of that motion

and making guys a half step late, now you have guys on the field on offense that are two steps faster. So we're getting pulled in two different directions here that aren't good for the teams that have to stop these guys. Oh, I agree. And it creates conflict from a defensive play calling perspective, too. you know, because they're going to have man coverage gears if you line up in that. And natural ability of Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle to simply run away from man coverage.

And I don't think that's talked about enough. You know, because they're in practice in the week and, you know, you're going against the scout team. And Friday you're in shells and they run across here and you undercut it against the scout team quarterback. And it's a pick. And everyone goes, hey, great play. It's awesome. Well, that's not how it looks on Sunday because Tyree Kill is so sudden at the line of scrimmage. Robert, that he creates natural separation of football.

Now you're in a foot race and you're not going to catch. So he can run away from man in coverage. You can do things like occupy the backside corner, run a deep out, run a deep curl, deep combat. Now that corner is occupied and covered. And guess what? Now there's this huge space or vacated area in the middle of the field. You get it on a matchup all the time and showing these plays.

And it's much different to your point where you have someone that's two steps faster than everyone else in the field. Because now you're in a trail position. you can't get to the bottom hip to undercut that route anymore. And now it's a catch-and-run opportunity on a 15-20-yard throw that can turn it into 60. So looking at it, I was fascinated by the man coverage numbers because this is going to be a trend as we go through this show, how as receivers travel from place to place, the ways that teams want to stop them travels from place to place, independent of who the quarterback can be or what the structure of the offense is. last season, two was fourth in the NFL and the percentage of man coverage that he faces, about 35.3% of his dropbacks.

This year, he's 20th. It's 23.2%. So the amount of man coverage that teams are playing against the Dolphins this year has dropped by about 12 percentage points. League-wide, it's down 1%. And that is, it's such a stark difference in how teams are willing to play against them. And when you can limit how teams can defend you, now you're limiting the menu of things you have to worry about what you can attack all those things. It's just creating edges for yourself

in so many different ways because teams are terrified to play man coverage with him on the field at any point. Yeah, and also gives you a tactical advantage from a defensive tendency perspective. You know what you're going to get, right? You already know what you're not going to. Now look, in third, and I don't have the numbers of front of it, but I assume third and two to six, you're going to get more man coverage like everyone in the NFL in the low red zone inside the 10-yard line. A lot of people like to play man. It's understandable. But outside of those situations, you know you're going to get three high zone. You're going to get some quarters.

You're going to get some covered two. So now you're in a situation where you have an advantage in your offensive game planning. This is what we're going to get based on the game situation. We know it's a low percentage of man. So now we have an opportunity to the scheme up cover three all day or to scheme up cover two, whatever that opposing team is playing. And that gives you a major, major advantage because to your point, teams are threatened by the speed of your wide receivers, by the accuracy of your quarterback,

by the ability of the play calling of your head coach. So they have to almost sit back in a way. And when you sit back in a way, as an offensive play caller, you love it because you know what you're going to get. So let's create those open voids for our quarterback. So let's go to Philadelphia, where I think that similar questions coming into the season. Like how would this mesh? You have a quarterback in J-1 Hertz who just almost refused to throw the ball over the middle

of the field last season. You have a player in AJ Brown that lives in that area of the field. Yak opportunities in Breakers Off play action. I mean, that's where he destroyed people during his time in Tennessee. And beyond that, you have a team that was the run heaviest team in the league for the last three quarters of last season. Now you trade for a $20 million receiver. How much are you going to use him?

What does the structure of the offense ultimately look like? What have you thought so far of the marriage between AJ Brown and what the Eagles want to be throwing the football? I think it's excellent because it's also led to increased development from your quarterback in Jalen Hertz. And I'll say that about Jalen Hertz. His development this year is really, really interesting to look at because he is playing at an extremely high level, in my opinion. And we know that Jalen has dual threat ability. You don't ever want to take that away from it because in today's NFL, when you have a quarterback with mobility,

who can escape, extend, make plays with his leg off second. reaction, that gives you an advantage. It gives you an advantage from a coverage perspective, too, and what teams are going to play against you, especially in third and seven to ten situations. But I'm really focused on his ability to read it out, both pre-snap and post-nap, his ability to isolate

the targets he wants, his movement within the pocket, and his willingness to keep his eye level up and drive the football to where it's supposed to go. I think he's playing excellent football right now with the quarterback position. I think you have to attribute some of that addition of A.J. Brown. Because here's the thing about A.J. Brown.

he can play through contact at all three levels of the field. And that gives you an advantage going back to what you said, the end breakers, throwing the slant balls underneath. You're going to play press covers. He's going to work through press coverage. You know, put a body out of the middle of field. He's going to work through that body. And also with A.J. Brown, as you're seeing not, I think you'll continue to see more of it, actually, to get through the course of the season.

When he wants to be a vertical stretch target, when you allow him to be a vertical stretch target, he can win down the field. You saw it in Tennessee last year when he runs slot phase. or run the outside vertical one-on-ones. So I think his addition also, playing through contact, ability to produce after the catch, the ability to win in the middle field, has incredibly opened up that pass game.

Now, last week was different. Last week was different. We know that Jeline Hertz and Philadelphia pushed the balls to the edges in the past game. I think that it had more to do with the interior of their offensive line to get the ball out with speed. They were dealing with some injuries. Yep.

But as we've seen the start of this year, AJ Brown is a unique player to position. For me, he's very similar to someone like a D. Bo Samba and how he can be deployed and utilized in an offense. And that has dramatically increased or strengthened the growth and development of the quarterback. You look at the numbers in terms of those throws over the middle of the field. Last year, Jalen Hertz was 29th among 31 quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts and the number of his passes that went between the numbers.

So almost dead last in the NFL. this year is 21st of 34 quarterbacks. So, you know, not up near the top, but significant improvement in terms of how often he's willing to go to that area. And I think that A.J. Brown has a pretty big hand in why that has happened. And what's encouraging about this with both of these guys, this is kind of anecdotal. But when you're watching these offenses, I can feel that A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill were guys that these two teams spent real resources to go get. AJ Brown leads the NFL in the percentage of air yards that he's garnered from his quarterback. We already talked about Tyree Kill's target share.

If you look at the efficiency on these throws, A.J. Brown is averaging 0.36 EPA per target this year, which would make, that's one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. That would be better than what Patrick Mahomes does every single throw. Tyree Kill is at like 0.29. So the deployment, the usage, the focus, and the efficiency, all of those things combined, we feel the impact that these guys are having, play in. play out and when you spend what these teams spent on these guys, that's exactly what you want to feel. Yes, you do.

I mean, given the amount of draft capital and the contracts that they've paid out to these two players, yes, you want them to be influential players in your off-plains and game plan. You want to create things in your game plan where you not are forcing the ball to them, but you're keeping count of their touches throughout the football game because they can be such difference makers within your offense. And what that means also, I call them got to have it situations. You've got to have a situation on offense is obviously third down or two-minute, low red zone, whatever it may be. That's what he wants football to go, right? And they're going to take it away. You're going to beat them and manipulate them with scheme and formation alignment

or pre-snap moving because you want to get them to football. That's how much they are difference makers within your offense. And that's how much they are helping your past game and your quarterback. So I think that taking one step back, from the nuts and bolts of this and just looking at it on a broader philosophical way. It's fascinating to me that two of the teams that made these moves are two teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts, Intua and Jalen Hertz, and two teams that I think were kind of uncertain about whether those quarterbacks were going to be the guys in the future. Coming into this season, both of these teams had multiple first round picks.

The dolphins don't anymore. It's an entirely different conversation. But the Eagles did, and the dolphins were setting themselves up to have. some flexibility in the future. So by making these moves, you're solving two things. You're filling out your receiver room with high quality talent, and then you're leaving no doubt in your team building plan about what you can get out of your quarterback when you give him enough help.

And I think it's a really interesting way to approach this. I don't think it's an accident. Both of those teams were in really similar situations from their team building plan, their timeline, and from how decisive they were about their quarterbacks heading into this. And I wonder if we can learn something about that for other teams moving forward that might find themselves in a similar position. I know what team you're talking about, right? It's a team here in Chicago, right?

I mean, I might be. I might be, I might, I've looked at DJ Moore's base salaries over the last three years, about 10 times in the last 24 hours. Oh, man. No, but that is a model. That is a model that we all know that everyone in this league gravitates to successful things, whether it's personnel, scheme, coaching tree. And that is a model that's being built right now. There's no question about it.

Because you're seeing the success that Miami has had offensively and that Philadelphia is having offensively with young quarterbacks. To your point, you went into the season, not knowing if they were the absolute future of the franchise. I think that's fair to say. And the early results say that they are when you surround them with talent, with scheme,

with players that can help their growth and development. So if you are looking at a team, like the Chicago Bears, who right now have a roster of players that don't scare you from an offensive perspective in terms of the skill town. So politely. Yeah. That what can you do this offseason with the amount of cap space you're going to have to make moves or to really go heavy into free agency to build around your quarterback who has shown us he has the physical tools of the position? He brings a playmaking element to the position. And as we saw last Sunday, when he gets into a rhythm, he can manage and run the offense successfully from the pocket. So those are positive things.

If you're a Chicago Bears fan, if you see this happening, other places in the National Football League, that you could be in that situation. I think the flip side argument, Robert, is because of how talented wide receivers are, starting in high school, playing seven-on-seven, high school passing offenses, playing in past heavy offenses in college. And then seeing that early success in the rookie season is that's a direction to know. Right? Now, we have this conversation at ESPN this offseason because year after year we're seeing these high-level draft classes. You know, players like Chris Alive, Garrett Wilson, John Dotson has made plays this year, Drake London and Atlanta. Alex Pierce, who played at Glombard West High School, my alma mater,

who is making plays right now for the Indianapolis Colts. So which route do you go? But, you know, for teams that gives you options, right? it gives you off whether you're going to invest first, the second round, draft capital on the wide receiver, or you're going to say, I'm going to go for the proven player.

And that's what Philadelphia did this year, right? They did both, though. Well, yes, yes. The Eagles and the Dolphins did both. Yeah, that's a good point. Which is I think it's, your point is very well taken, and I think that you could cut it either way.

I just think it's hilarious that both of these teams spent a first round pick on a wide receiver, and in Miami's case spent two because they traded up to go get Jaylen Waddle, and then a year later, they traded first round picks for superstar wide receivers and we're willing to pay that. So you can go at this in both different directions. Yeah. And that goes to another point is your wide receiver depth.

What you have in the room matters because there's only so many one eight. That's how I look at. You can't put every number one wide receiver in the same grouping with Devante Adams, Stefan Diggs, Cooper Cup. This is not fair. There is a line drawn somewhere in the number ones where it's the A class and the B class. but you can't just have a 1A because right now the Los Angeles Rams have a 1A and their passing game

is really disjoint and it lacks rid. Now they have injuries on the offensive line understand that. They sign Alan Robinson to be that number two, a high level number two. When you don't get production out of your number two, it's hard to win in this league. And you're seen it in Chicago

right now. Chicago has Darnell Mooney who is their number one. I'll tell you, when you turn on the film and you watch the Bears in third, and seven to ten, they're playing man coverage. There's not a lot of separation down the field. There is not. Okay, so you need guys that can make plays for the quarterback.

You need guys who can make plays to the quarterback. And to your point, there are multiple ways to do it. And I also think that you can go at this and spend on a picks and make trades. And again, you can attack from two different directions like both these teams did. Free agency is not a place filled with high-level talent. we just know this. How many guys at receiver have come up for deals, their first deals, and been traded away? One.

It's A.J. Brown. That's it. Devante Adams and Tyree Kill are both on third contracts, and Devontey's, I think, maybe fourth contracts creeping toward 30. The amount of money that these two teams would have been paying out is insane for players that are almost 30 years old. For the most part, all of these guys have been retained. D.K. McCaff, Terry McLaurin. Debo Samuel, even guys Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, most of the time these guys have been getting paid.

So when you're shopping in free agency for a receiver, you're shopping in the Kristen Kirk bucket. Christian Kirk is making $18 million a year and he's been nice for Jacksonville. But those are the players that are left and those are the players that you have to pay a premium for. So if you're a team like Miami or like Philadelphia and you're looking at this surplus money that is creating, from your rookie quarterback contract. Trades and going to get proven players is a way to weaponize that cap space in arguably a more efficient way because we know what these guys are. These are elite players.

So even if you're spending a first round pick to go get one of these guys and you're having to compound the resources that you're throwing into this, I still think it's an interesting at the very least way to think about how to use that cap space. The Bears have $115 million in cap space right now for 2023. You can't even try to spend all that in free agency. There's no way. You can be going around like a gun. I just did my wedding registry.

I'm trying to put all that shit on there. There's no way you could use the little gun on all the receivers available in free agency and even get to $115 million. There needs to be other ways that you can do this. And I just think that what the Eagles and Dolphins did, it's hard not to look at that and say, yeah, maybe. Like maybe that is a way to try to pull this off. Right.

And I agree with your point of free agency. And I understand the hype around a free agency every year because it creates hope. Okay. But great players don't make it for a agency because they are retained by their teams or they are moved in this case that we've seen with a couple of players to other teams and rewarded with major contracts because they're at high level. Okay. So I agree with that point 100%. When it comes to free agency, if you're trying to rebuild this team through free agency, I played three years in Washington.

Okay? And we did that every year. We did not win. And look, I was part of that. And someone thought I was a good player. And that was a mistake too. So there it goes, you know? Yeah, that's not a, it's not a, you can't live building or doing your roster construction

through free agency every March. You cannot do that. And high level players don't make it there for reason. because they are that high level. I don't want to make any grand conclusions about this five games into the season. These guys are 30 years old. You are spending a potential, you are, the surplus you can create in value with the first round pick, even for guys drafted high in the first round, is very real.

Jaylon Waddle is probably worth more than the dolphins are going to pay him against the cap over the next four years. So there's a chance that they lose out on some value as these guys start to decline. because this is going to be the best it's going to get for the most part with AJ Brown. With Tyree kills absolutely and with AJ Brown potentially. So all those things are important to keep into account. And I don't want to be taking victory laps on this right now. But I just think it's worth pouring over like what all the considerations are as you're thinking about the resources that you have and the best way to unleash those resources.

And I think that what these two teams did is at least an interesting way to do it. And you can contrast that with where the Raiders are. are because the Raiders were not in the same position that the dolphins and the Eagles were, where they had these quarterbacks on rookie contracts and like, all right, well, if we have some money to spend and some resources to throw around, let's go get a receiver because we can afford it right now. The Raiders weren't necessarily in the same place in their team building process, but they still thought it was worth it to go get Devante Adams.

And they have thrown a ton at him. He is currently fifth in the NFL right now in Target Share, so they've tried to build their passing game through him. But so far, I would say the results from his performance, what they've gotten out of him and what their passing game has looked like, has been uneven. Their 11th in EPA per dropback right now, Derek Carr is, a stat that I found really surprising. There are 73 players in the NFL right now with at least 25 targets. Devante Adams is 68th in catch rate. And the efficiency on his targets has been good.

I mean, he scored a bunch of touchdowns, all of that. But I think it's been more of a mixed bag. So when you look at the way the Raiders have used Devante Adams and what the returns have been so far, what has jumped out to you? Well, a couple things. I think the best tape to watch is week four when they played Denver. And the reason I say that is there was multiplicity in terms of his alignments. You saw him as the Bond React. You saw him as a Z, it's the field side of the formation.

They put him in the slot versus zone coverage. That's, you know, Sean Peyton 101. That's what you've seen with Michael Thomas over his career there, is you put him in the slot. Guess what versus zone coverage. That means there's an outside line back there. So you are going to win on the choice route, the opposite route, move the sticks. I would like to see more pre-stant movement with that. I think at times it's too static, Robert.

I think it's too static. I would like you, you know, you saw it. I think last that you saw it in the deep crosser that he caught, they motion down to a stacked line. One, you're giving him free access off the ball. Not that he needs it. But when you do that, you get into the route quicker. And again, you're running away from coverage in that situation.

and attacking a very big vacated area in the field. So I'd like to see more of that. And I agree with the other efficiency. I'm looking for the numbers here. Week two, you know, two receptions on seven targets for 12 yards. Now, he did have a touchdown and understand that. That needs to be more efficient. Week three, five receptions on 10 targets for 36 yards.

Again, to your point, he did have a touchdown in those games. Those are two games they also lost as well. So last night, three or seven, we all know he had explosive plays last night. And the double move he ran the same route he did last year against Cincinnati. He was with Green Bay. It is nasty when you have a bracket. And because I've been in that situation, when you have a bracket coverage, corner outside, safety inside.

And it looks like the wide receiver is going to sit it down and break inside or run a hitch. And you both stop. And then he runs past you. So that is the worst feeling to have is the defensive back because come to the sideline. And it's not going to say. You kind of beat the scheme. beat you at the same time. This is a really bad play defensively. And then the fourth down play they had to him last night. I thought that was an aggressive

call. I thought there was a smart call given the youth and the came to the city secondary. And again, based on game situation, anticipating man coverage. So let's take a shot. But I'd like more movement. We were talking before in terms of the coverages that Derek Hard and the Raiders are seeing, especially if you're going to see too high coverages. I'd like to see him inside him inside where he has more free access of the football and can work to second level the field. Because you can, what we said before, it's scheme transcendent. It doesn't matter what office he's in.

But his usage and deployment does matter. If they're using him a little bit less than the slot than Green Bay did last year, which is understandable in three receiver sets on Renfro is a slot only player. And Renfro has even missed time. And Adams has not been in the slot any more than he was in Green Bay last year. So I think that's something taken into consideration. The numbers that jump out to me are, we talk about zone coverages and how you can kind of deploy those. Teams are playing man coverage against the Raiders at the second lowest rate in the entire NFL this year.

And if you look at it, what it was last season, it was the 10th highest rate in the league. The biggest difference about what the Raiders were last year in the passing and what the Raiders are now is Devante Adams. So teams are looking at that and saying, well, we're just not going to play man coverage against Devante Adams. and we're going to see if you can beat us. And just doing some quick math, I was looking at the percentage in cover two, four, and six against the Raiders this year. I want to say that the Raiders have seen that combination of two high coverages,

I think either at the highest rate in the NFL this season or the second highest rate in the NFL this season. They're right there with the Bengals, who we know all the cover two discourse that's happened with Joe Burrough so far this year. Right. And 18% of the Raiders snaps. seeing cover six, which is a combination, quarter, quarter half. You've talked about this a million times.

How can you deploy quarter, quarter, half, or half quarter quarter, against a true number one receiver like Devante Adams is? Because I think a lot of teams are going that route right now. You play the cover two side to his alignment. And especially when he's the Boundary X. Yep. And what I mean by Boundary X, your listeners, that's the backside receiver, three-by-one sets.

You have three receivers to the field side of the formation. it's not as noticeable in pro football because of hashes, but in college football in high school, it's dramatic the amount of space you have over there. And then to the backside of three by one, you have the extra receiver. So when you're playing a cloud coverage, that's what it is, whether it's cover six or three cloud. You want a corner in a position, Robert, to where he can jam and disrupt Devante Adams at the line of scrimmage,

because then you have a safety over the top. And it's his own coverage. But that's what teams want to do. do versus the top receiver. I remember teams I played on that went against Randy Moss, it was always cover sex, always because that was our only chance, right? Let's try disruptive, disrupt Moss to the line of scrimmage and put a safety over the top. And you really didn't want to be that safety. You really didn't want to be that guy. But that's the idea behind it, Robert. Look, we're going to get hand. And look, as a cloud corner, you can be

ultra-aggressive, Robert. You can because it's not man coverage. If he slips you, that's okay you got a safety over the top right you're going to open your hips sink take away like a corner out if they want to throw it close that that you know that deep hole shot window and cover two but go for it you know be physical be nasty try to put them on the ground that's what i would say from the coaching perspective so you've got a safety over the top yes you still want to play with technique and mirror the release and do all the coachable traits that are part of playing that technique but go after him because we got a safety over the top and well that gives you now it's the field this quarters and today's in it at a first and today's at it

quarter's is, it's almost a match-based coverage. So that gives you, you know, four of a three to the front side of the formation, two over one to the back side of the formation. That's all zone coverage is. A lot of times it's three over two and four over three. That's what zone coverage is. You get an extra defender, and with the amount of match coverage you're seen in today's NFL, it's a really smart way to play football.

And even if you play basic quarters to the front side, what that allows you to do is that they run an in-breaker, it turns into a bracket because if number two goes under or out, now your safety is free to the quarter side. And if you run an inbreaker, you can drive downhill and take it away. You can drive on crosswoods. You can do a lot of different stuff for the quarter side of the formation, knowing that we basically have two on one against the Bonte Adams, so he's the boundary X.

Now let's say he's the Z. You're still getting hands on it. You still have a deep path safety over the top. Now you can take your backside quarter safety, right, and push them to the front side. So there's things you can do schematically and tactically with zone. coverage with match man-based principles within those zone schemes to influence the amount of targets that Devante Adams gets an amount of free access he gets off the football. And that's the thing is that they're still trying to feed him the ball, but teams are doing

everything they can to take him away. You look at the numbers against the Titans in week three in week three. Titans played 7% man coverage. They put it on five of 65 snaps. They're two most prevalent coverages in that game. 14 snaps of cover 2, 9 snaps of cover 6. That's what they were doing. They're just saying, we're not going to let this happen.

We're going to put a guy over the top of him every single play, and we're going to dare you to beat us another way. And I think that over time, you'll figure out what those problems look like. You know, the Packers had years and years and years of figuring out, all right, if they're going to try to take him away, what can we do to make sure we're manufacturing touches for him? I think the slot was a huge part of that. You look at the numbers that he's doing it.

He's in there about 30% of the time right now, which isn't that far removed from what it was in Green Bay. in Green Bay last season, he was targeted on 30% of his slot routes. This year, it's only 20%. So when he was there last season, they were throwing him the football and good things were happened. It's not been the case this year. So with some more time, with some more trial and error and getting to understand what works

and what doesn't, hopefully this can get a little bit better. But I think the defense has done a really good job of saying, we are not going to allow him to beat us and we're not going to play man coverage as a result of that. All right, let's get to the team that Devante Adams just left and what they've been having to deal with this year, and that is the Green Bay Packers. You alluded to it a little bit at the beginning of the show, but where do you think this Packers' offense is struggling the most without Devante right now? Well, I'll say this. I think, and this can be argued by different opinions, but I think still Aaron Rogers is the best quarterback in the league and identifying and throwing one-on-one. Okay, and that was a huge part of their offense, Robert Cavante Adams.

Whether it was a slot fade, whether it was a vertical outside one-on-one. We saw consistently when Rogers would take that opportunity. And right now that's missing from their office. 100% that's missing from their office. Now, we've seen situations in the last couple weeks where Romeo Doves has made some opportunities, right? He had an opportunity on the deep ball against the Patriots didn't finish the play, that came back to him on the Red Zone fade ball throwing back shoulder. So is that a possibility?

Yes, it is. I brought up Christian Watson. You grabbed him Christian Watson at the top of day, too, to be that guy, in my opinion, to be the vertical stretch target, to have the ability to take the one-on-one whenever we want it down the field. They don't have that right now. I think it's a major part of their offense that's missing. I was looking at some of these numbers, and it's amazing how much more man-coverage teams have been willing to play in those high-leverage moments against them without Devon.

teams are playing 54% man against them this year on third down. It's the fourth highest rate in the league. Last year it was 45%. So take up 10 percentage points. And they've really struggled in those moments. They're just nobody open. Like you said, Rogers is 23rd in the NFL right now, an EPA per dropback against man, ninth against zone.

And I think that's a huge part of just not being able to trust anybody in those one-on-one matchups. And you see that consistently. And the other thing that I was fascinated by, and you mentioned this a little bit earlier, talking about how quickly he was getting rid of the ball. In five-man protection this year, Rogers is averaging 4.78 air yards per attempt, which is the lowest rate in the NFL, kind of by far.

When they're using six and seven guys in protection, it goes all the way up to sixth in area yards per attempt. He's 25th an EPA per dropback with five guys in protection. He's 10th when it's six or seven. And just anecdotally, if you think about what their offenses looked like, it kind of makes sense, right? When they use heavy play action and they're using more guys in protection, he's willing to wait and see things come open over the middle of the field. That's how they've created a lot of their explosive plays. But when he has to trust someone to get open quickly when they have five guys out in the route and it's not schemed up space, he is not trusting that right now.

He's getting rid of the ball instantly. And it is really hamstrung what they've been able to do. on offense? I agree with that. I agree 100%. And that's why I brought the Giants game the other day, how quickly the ball was coming out of time

in that offense. Well, it's throwing to the flat, it's throwing a quick slant, it's throwing a hitch, it's throwing a smoke route outside versus off-man coverage, which we've seen them do, especially at the end of the Patriots game.

That's what he's doing right now. And I think that's his belief. That's the best way to get these young wide receivers involved or to get other wide receivers involved and not bet on a longer developing route that takes nuance and savviness within the route tree and experience to do it and the traits to do it,

the separation ability, the understanding of leverage and coverage. I keep bringing up the young receivers because, let's be honest, Robert, is this season progressive, you want to win the NFC North and you want to challenge the playoffs, two young receivers have to be a part of this offense structure.

They have to be. And right now, it's a little up and down. I wanted to throw out one more number just because I thought it was so, so interesting. So with five guys in protection last year, Aaron Rogers threw 115 passes to Devonte Adams. He averaged nine air yards per attempt on those throws and let them rip in about two seconds on average. So one of the quickest, time to throws in the entire league, we're averaging nine air yards per attempt. on throws to everyone else, that number goes to 5.89 last season. So what happened is now the entire world is those throws that aren't to Devante Adams.

So when they had five guys in protection, he was so quick to trust him to be open that they're pushing the ball down the field. That has been completely removed from the equation. So now you see the entire, every throw that wasn't to Devante last year is their entire offense. And that's kind of aligns with the numbers. And that extends to empty more than any other situation. Last year, Devante got 32 targets in empty. He averaged 12 air yards per target on those throws. This year, 44% of Rogers' empty targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage,

which is 31st in the NFL. Last year, it was 18%. That means you're throwing screens and smokes, right? That's it. That's it. And it's just they're not, all of those throws that they were pushing the ball to him last year because they were advantaged throws where they could really, push the ball down the field, all those slot fades that you saw, him just saying, I know instantly that he's going to be there.

And I'm just going to lay it out. Those throws have been removed from the equation. And all of these numbers are, they were so striking when I was looking at them because you can feel this. When you watch them right now, you can feel all of these things in the bones of what they are on offense. And I guess my question to you is, do you think this can get better? I think it has to get better. One name I'll bring up. And look, I think Matt LaFlor has done a really good job this year. terms of his running back deployment, you know, using Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on the field at the same time. I think that does give you tactical advantages in what you can do for a run-pass perspective. Is that player, and this is just you and I talk, is that player Aaron Jones? Is Aaron Jones someone that can unlock, so to say, their past game a little bit? When we see more versatility with him in terms of his utilization as a wide receiver, where he's flexed the slot, where he goes out of the backfield in motion to create a matchup you like,

where you can stretch him vertically a little bit. Look, I've seen on tape Aaron Jones run backside fade balls from an X alignment. We've seen him run wheel routes out of the backfill. We've seen him run sail routes out of the back field. Is that one way they're going to have to kind of lean on right now until you see more development with the young wide receivers, straight more exposed to play opportunities? Because it's hard to win football games when they're throwing screens and smokes.

It's hard. it's hard to go all the way down the field, Robert, when you're throwing hitches and slants. Because, again, from a defensive perspective, I'm probably going to give you those against Aaron Roder, Robert. Okay, you want to throw a hitch? Well, let's be tackling. Eventually, you're going to get impatient.

Eventually, you're going to make a mistake, or eventually the offense is going to get in a negative field position and negative down-and-distance situation because of a penalty. And now I really got you. Because you can throw three hitches, and I'm still going to get off the field on third down. So you have to have that element to where you can threaten teams.

And again, it doesn't mean throwing 50-yard bombs down the field like we talked about. It means being efficient in your passing game. Being able to attack second-level windows is so big in today's NFL. And right now, those aren't second-win. Those throws your talk about, Robert, are not second-level window throws. They're underneath throws. This is very hard to do. And after a while, those wide receivers are going to get tired of getting hit.

I hate to say that they are. Because I'm going to keep coming downhill. and put my pads on them consistently. And tell them if I'm a coach, tell them my defensive backs and linebackers. You just consistently put your pads in these guys until they shut down. So Aaron Rogers is currently 21st in EPA per dropback in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is first.

The chiefs have the most efficient passing game in football without Tyree Kill. Why have the chiefs been able to thrive without Tyree Kill in a way that the Packers have not been able to thrive without Devonté Adams? Well, I think you have to start with Mahomes and the talent he has and the scheme he's playing in and Travis Kelsey. I mean, let's be honest, Travis Kelsey's a number one wide receiver right now. Yes, he's a tight end, but he saw last night where he flexes from the formation consistently and how they will be multiple in the route combinations they use for. Last night, it was in the low red zone area in the field. We know Andy Reid is one of the best coaches at the NFL is scheming, deep crossers, and overs.

And manipulating one side of the field so he can get that coverage void for Patrick Mahomes. And I think they've done a good job in trying to somewhat recreate Tyree Kiel and the aggregate, right? Marquis Valdez Scanley is your vertical stretch option, okay? And a much better route runner than giving credit for in my opinion. Juju Smith-Schuster gives him something different that he did not have the past couple of years. He's a physical player in the slot. I think he's more explosive than giving credit for. I think he's more than willing to work the dirty areas of the field,

meaning making contested catchers or making catches in traffic when he knows someone is going to drive downhill and try to bury him after the catch. Nicole Hardman is still a vertical player for them that gives them that horizontal stretchability when he uses on motion, movement, pre-snap. And Sky Moore is a very young player, which you saw last night there are ways the manufacturer throws to Sky Moore, where he can produce after the catch. When he can turn a wide receiver screen or a quick flat ball into a first half. I think they did a good job of putting together a group of personnel that is not Tyreek Hill, but Stills allows them to be efficient from an offensive perspective within the structure of Annie Reed's office. The Travis Kelsey point is the first one that I come back to. I went back and watched the Tampa Bay game again today because the Raiders game wasn't on all 22 yet.

I was like, all right, what game could I go back and watch here? Right. And you watch how central he is to their passing game, how they're putting him, in motion consistently, motioning him into bunches and stacks, giving him free releases, giving him matchups. He is the centerpiece of how they want to throw the football. He's, I think he has a 25% or so target share about a quarter of their throws this season. Mahomes has a 0.72 EPA per dropback on throws to Travis Kelsey.

That's twice as efficient as the most efficient quarterback in the league, which is him. Every throw that they do to Kelsey is one of the most efficient things you can do in football right now. And I think that we just, I personally, I'm guilty of this, did not. give that enough credit that even if you remove Tyreek Hill from this equation, Travis Kelsey is one of the best players in the NFL and has been for the last eight years. He is one of the best players of the decade. He is defining player of this era. And if we're not going to be able to build this around Tyreek, at least we can build it around Travis. And that is what they're doing

right now. And a couple other layers to it that I think are so fascinating. So by the way, this Travis Kelsey's debt. On third down this year, he has a third of their targets, 15 to 14. 12 catches for 152 yards and 10 first downs on those 15 targets on third down, which is pretty good. It's pretty good. It's a pretty good weapon to have in the high leverage moments in games. Okay. So teams now, we talked about how the dolphins are seeing a ton less man coverage with Tyreek-il. Last season, teams played man coverage 25% of the time against the Chiefs.

It was the 22nd highest rate in the league. This year, it's number one. 40% more than 40% of their snaps they're seeing. man coverage. So they have guys in MVS, in Mikhail Hardman, in Jujan, and Jujis Smith shoes. So they're like, these guys are good enough. You know, they're not superstars, but they can consistently win matchups that we make, that we create for them. And the other thing I thought was fascinating, Mahomes has thrown 44 passes outside the numbers to a wide receiver this season. That's the same number as Cooper Russian Joe Flacko.

The only guys at quarterback who are full-time starters who have thrown more passes to receivers outside the numbers this year are Marcus Marriota, Ryan Tannahill, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, and Lamar. They just don't throw inefficient passes. They do such an incredible job of exploiting efficient areas of the field. And when you combine that with Patrick Mahomes being from another planet, Travis Kelsey being one of the greatest receiving talents we've ever seen in professional football, and a really good offensive coordinator, you still see the best offense in the league. And it has been remarkable to see all of that kind of conversational. into this final product without Tyreek Hill on the field.

Yeah, and you bring him a great point. You know, the combination of a homes, the scheme he plays in, when I was still doing the matchup show for ESPN, and we would go through Greg Kosell and I on the games we wanted to do each week. Every week we said, well, we can do Kansas City again. Because they have, I mean, there's always a play to do. That show is hard at times because sometimes you have to have the pictures, right? It's one thing to say, what we're going to do,

Rogers throwing this ball. Well, if you don't have the right picture, you can't really do it on TV. There was always pictures for Kansas City. I mean, you could have done them every week, Robert. Every week we could have had a breakdown on an NFL matchup show about Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs.

Could have been Hill, could have been Kelsey, could have been Robinson. I mean, just start naming players because that's how well-schemed they are, and that's how talented Patrick Mahomes is. And that's not even including Robert the plays he makes outside of, structure.

Because those are unpredictable. You can't really scheme for them as a defensive player. You can't. And one, you can't prepare for them. How do you prepare for that in practice? I want to know. Because you can't. You can't.

What are you going to have? A quarterback run around for a couple minutes to throw the ball? It's not how it works. It's how Patrick Mahomes does. He is so good at the ability to escape, extend, and make plays at the second and third level of the field from any. platform and any arm angle he wants. So that's the, that's the, on top of the scheme, on top of Patrick Mahomes, on top of what

they have at the skill positions, there is that part that you always have to account for, that you can't really technically prepare for, but it is a major part of their offense. And I think that, you know, obviously, I think a retort to that, which in my mind would be, well, Rogers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Why can't he transcend some of this stuff? But having Kelsey and what that means, I think, is so. important because it brings me to kind of a wide range and conclusion about this whole thing. It is so crucial to have a guy that you can build your passing game through.

And I think all of these teams have that now. Even without Tyree Kill, the Chiefs still have that. The dolphins now have that with Tyree Kill. The Eagles now have that with A.J. Brown. The Raiders have that with Devante Adams, even if it's been a little bit uneven. The Packers don't have that. They do not have that guy to build their passing game through. And I think that you see that huge hole in what they are compared to what Kansas City can be,

even if they both have truly elite quarterbacks, MVP-level quarterbacks. So it's fascinating. I mean, just like where these teams are and the boosts that some have gotten and how defenses have changed the way that they're playing against these guys because of the players that are or not on the roster, to me, it's one of the more intriguing elements of the entire season so far. And I cannot, I cannot thank you enough for taking a time out. let me chew on this with you because I had a great time. So Matt Bowen, thank you very, very much. Thank you, Robert.

Be good. All right, guys, that's all we got. Really enjoyed that conversation. I hope you guys did as well. Thank you very much for Matt's time. We will be back tomorrow with me and Greg Rosenthal from the NFL network and around the NFL. Can't wait to chat with Greg. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice.

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Talk to you soon.