The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - How to Spot the Next Breakout Wide Receiver

Episode Date: July 12, 2024

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon joins Robert Mays to break down which of the league’s receivers are primed for breakouts and where we should be looking for the league’s next elite group of pass catchers. Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. We're going to take a step back and do another positional deep dive. We did the offensive line a couple weeks ago. We're going to do receivers today. And the way that we're framing this conversation is just trying to identify guys who might be primed for a breakout or a step forward.

That can mean a bunch of different things, right? You can go from being a solid player to a good one. You can go from being a good player to a great one. I'm thinking about guys like Nico Collins last year and him just taking a huge step forward, what Brandon Ayuk did a couple years ago, what a guy like Stefan Diggs did going from Minnesota to Buffalo

and going from a solid, good player that we all liked to somebody who was one of the best receivers in the entire league. And there is no better person to have this discussion with, in my mind, than Matt Harmon from Yahoo and reception. If you're not familiar with the work that Matt does at RP, they really dig into what these guys do on a per route basis. Success rates against man coverage, success rates against zone coverage, what types of routes they're running consistently,

how successful and efficient they are on those types of routes. In my mind, it is the most granular on-task receiver data that is available in the space of any kind. This is not GPS tracking. This is stuff that's actually been watched and charted and really looked at with a keen eye. and I'm very excited for you to hear our discussion with Matt about all things wide receiver in 2024.

Let's get to it. Joining us now from Yahoo Sports and the founder, King, Tsar, I don't know what to call you, of reception, it is Matt Harmon. Matt, thank you for taking the time to do this, my friend. Appreciate you, buddy. I'm looking forward to it. Yeah, I mean, in terms of title, I think all those things.

I don't know if I'd say King. Somebody did call me wide receiver God at some point this off season, which I know is way, that's way too. high. I don't know what my official title is. I think founder, creator, wide receiver charter in chief over at reception, that works for me. What I have always loved about the work that you guys do, you consistently do this so well, is because you really dive into the granularity of what these guys are. You've done a great job at identifying when breakout players are coming. And that comes at different levels, right? We have guys who have been solid that can become stars. You know, the guy that we're

going to talk about, a mold that we're going to talk about a little bit later. I remember you were such a fan of Stefan Diggs before he got traded to Buffalo and kind of had that pin down as a monster season potentially incoming and that's exactly what happened. So that's a go, a jump from good to really good. We have a jump from pretty good to good. These guys like Nico Collins

last year, Brandon I, Yuk, players that you've liked, but for whatever reason the situation hasn't necessarily allowed them to produce on a box score level. So what we're going to do today is we're going to try to identify the next crop of those guys. We're going to look at six, eight different categories.

of receiver and try to identify who the next guy up in that mold might be, which is pretty much what you spend your offseason doing anyway. Right, exactly. And a couple of good table setting points there, number one, you know, just about what is a breakout, right? I mean, especially doing any sort of work in fantasy prognostication, that's like something people fight about, right? Like, well, he ended up being Wider receiver 26. That's not a real breakout.

It's like, okay, well, you know, and that's why it's kind of, I like to turn that part my brain off when having these conversations. It's a good thing. It's a relief. But I like to think of receivers, you know, and I would say that after doing this for 10 years, like charting receivers, reception, perception, the whole thing. It's crazy that it's been that long now. I've like almost the last year, year and a half wanted to sort of raise my standards

with wide receivers in the league. Because yeah, it's easy to just pick, oh, this guy's good. Well, there's a lot of really good receivers in the league. So where do players slot in? you know, who's a tier one, like truly elite receiver, you know, a tier two guy that's maybe like a superstar. There's a difference between those players and then some of the players that, again, exist in this wide swath of very good receivers, but maybe aren't a true difference maker. So differentiating between what's a breakout from tier three to tier two or tier two to

two to tier three, whatever, tier two to tier one, that makes a big deal, a big deal of difference in having these conversations. And the second point is, again, yeah, why I do what I do, which is that wide receiver production, like, you, know this, Robert, all of your listeners are smart enough to know this. This isn't a groundbreaking thing, but it's, it's so dependent on outside variables, even like the good stats, right? Like yards per route runs a good stat, but a receiver can't magic the yards per route run to himself on his own. So Nico Collins is a great example. I know he's the first one we'll talk about, but like, he's a great example of a player that listeners, go back and listen, maybe not to Robert's podcast and

certainly not to my podcast, but go back and listen to your favorite NFL podcast and what they were saying about CJ Stroud's weapons last year. year. And it was like, they've got Nico Collins, you know, because he'd done nothing from a box score standpoint. It's like, well, he's playing in a poorly designed offense with Davis frickin' Mills, man. Like, he's, he's not going to be able to magic those yards on himself. So that's why, again, I do what I do, which is charting all the film and putting this stuff out in a digestible format for people to understand, like, how good are these guys actually in isolation doing the things that they can control?

Nico Collins is on my fantasy team every single year before last year. I was just a believer in the height weight speed coming into the draft and then just you want to bet on traits moving forward and there were little nuggets that I really liked. And he was on my fantasy team the one I care about the most the start of last year and I dropped him before

week one to pick up Puka Nakua. So it's like one of those things where it's just like ah! You know, like and the only other guy I could have reasonably dropped because of the state of my receivers was Terry McLaren. And I can't drop Terry McCorrin for Nico Collins. even if I knew Nico Collins was going to be good.

So that was a little bit heartbreaking for me. We were just fine. That's not the last time I'll bring out my fantasy team on this show because there's one other guy I'm going to have to ask you about. I want to before we get into the player specific things, can you just give me an example of like a tier one, tier two, and tier three receiver in your mind? So we have an understanding of like what class of guy we're talking about

when we outline those tiers for you. Yeah. And like I said, I'm trying to be really strict about what's a tier one receiver. So for me, like heading into last year, I know my tier one was one through seven, Justin Jefferson, Devante Adams, Stefan Diggs, Tyree Kill, A.J. Brown, J. Mar Chase and Cooper Cup. I think that at least Diggs and Cup are probably moving out of that tier.

Whereas last year, I think that C.D. Lamb, who was at the top of my tier two, had that type of year to push himself into tier one. And again, these are not about, like, production at all. I'm just talking about who he is as a player. I think that some guys, like, you almost kind of want to see it first. Like, you want to see them be the centerpiece of the offense. And I don't think it was anything that C.D. Lamb did. Like, I was saying, even in the first part of last season, like, this is not a good offense because they're not as good as it could be because they're not building the whole plane around C.D. Lam.

And then they took getting smacked around by the Niners to be like, oh, let's take this guy that we're just kind of line up in the slot and move him all across the formation, make him the number one read in a traditional West. Coast offense by putting him at the X receiver position. So I think he graduated out of that. He was a good example of that. I think this year, like Garrett Wilson to me is a tier two receiver in the league. And he's the guy that I think could make that leap from tier two to tier one. Like I think Mike Evans has long time been a very high tier two receiver. So again, those are your true superstar receivers.

Tier three is like, I mean, this is a big group. You know, I think like Jalen Waddle's in this tier. I think, you know, Michael Pittman is in this tier. the current version of DeAndre Hopkins is in this tier. You know, someone that's a one, but maybe more of a high-end two. But like I think DJ more even, like, I have to be fair to him, I haven't charted out his season last year. I think he's a guy who may have graduated to tier two out of tier three. So that's kind of, again, the differentiator to me is like, these players can be your one,

but they might be more of like a high-end two, if that makes sense. And though that's pretty strict in terms of criteria, because those are really good players. you have down there in Tier 3, but I think that's important context for people to hear as we kind of dig into this. Slight tangent, but I'm curious. Did you chart Hopkins from last year? Yeah, I've gotten a few games on him. He's not fully done.

He's not on the site, but a few games. What do you think of just the type of player he is at this stage in his career? Because I find him really interesting. Yeah, he is one of these guys, and this might come up later in the show, but just as a disclaimer, and I think actually probably the last time, I think the last time I was on your show, we might have talked about Alan Robinson. so this is a good I'm pretty

yeah, no, he didn't that never happened. We're done having Alan Robinson conversations on this podcast. But he's an interesting player to talk about

with the Hopkins thing because my point in saying that is that the one thing over 10 years of doing this on receivers that I have the least confidence in forecasting is the age cliff

or the age curve because sometimes you see guys and Keenan Allen's a good example of this where like Keenan Allen can say in his introductory press conference with the bears that he's the same player that he's not the same player that used to be.

He's not as dynamic as he was at his peak. And you see that in his reception data where at his peak seasons he's like 96th percentile success rate versus man, but he's taken a step down to still be at a really good level, just not at his peak. But again, he's been able to hold that secondary level for a while, whereas you see guys like Robinson take a couple steps back, but later tears in Chicago.

but then he goes to the Rams and he can't move anymore, he can't separate period. So Hopkins, I think, has been on that slower kind of, he's certainly not the player he was at his peak, but he is definitely still a guy that can operate well at the extra receiver position. I'm always fascinated by these guys that get along in the tooth, that get along in their career,

and like, can we make them more optimal by throwing them inside? Can we move them off the ball, right? And I think he showed some interesting, signs of being able to do those because I've always liked him as a separator on short and intermediate routes. I think that separation was still there his final year in Arizona and still there his last year in Tennessee. I just don't know, you know, you signed Calvin Ridley, who my number one complaint with Calvin Ridley last year is like they're having him hang out at X receiver and run go routes and comebacks. I mean, almost 50% of his routes that I charted

last year, Calvin Ridley were nine route, comeback route. That's really low percentage stuff. So you don't have to tell me, man. You don't have to tell me. So how do those two things overlap, I think is difficult to say, but I think Hopkins is still a really high quality tier three receiver that can be your one. I just wonder if he could be more maximized moving around the formation. I'm totally with you. Going back and watching him last year,

I was actually really impressed with the work that he is out of the slot. And with the current guys that they have, just doesn't feel like he's going to profile there because not even with Calvin Ridley playing off the line of scrimmage, they have Tyler Boyd, who's like a 98% slot player. And so, but with Hopkins, and you're talking about Keenan Allen, one of the reasons that Keenan Allen has been able to extend his, career the way that he has is he's a slot receiver like that's what he is and that's where he's

best and it's funny because we've always thought of diondrey hopkins is this like big bodied outside the numbers guy first of all he's not that big he's like 600 i'm like 6-1 and second of all somebody tweeted this earlier this week i apologize i can't remember who it was they're saying that if you look at the contest they catch percentage numbers for dandre hopkins they're actually pretty low over the last few years and i think part of the surprise from that is that we have come to misunderstand what sort of player D'Andre Hopkins is at this stage of his career. And he's a different sort of player, but can still be an effective one. And I'm not sure how many people have gotten to that realization yet. Yeah, I think that was Jacob Gibbs from CBS. Jacob's a great

follow. You know, J.A. Gibbs underscore 23, I think on Twitter is his handle. He posts, I might reference him again, because I have something else that might fit in here. But yeah, Hopkins is interesting again because his peak seasons as a separator like in reception 77% success rate versus man 76.5%. Those are really high quality numbers. I think he's always been underrated as a because he doesn't get like gobs and gobs of separation, which this is some of my problem with like player tracking data and you know, just like giving more credit to the distance between you and the cornerback that's covering you and like working separation that way because to me it's like open to DeAndre Hopkins

is different than open to Curtis Samuel or something like that, who I love, right? And again, alignment plays so much into it. So I always thought he was a very underrated separator. And yeah, I think that that contested catch like profiling is a little bit of just like wide receiver stereotyping. 100% agree. I actually think that

his awareness against zone coverage and his ability to kind of have a feel for the position is underrated at this stage of his career. And that's kind of why I wanted to see him to put in a slightly different way, but not sure we're going to get that with the guys in the personnel they have in Tennessee. Okay, let's move on to the questions we actually wanted to dig into here. And let's start with Nico Collins. The goal here is to try to find maybe the 2024 versions

of 2023 or 22 players. So let's start with who in your mind might be this year's version of Nico Collins and how we would go about identifying that player. And the way that I would describe this year's Nico Collins is essentially somebody with an encouraging charting profile whose situation profiles as a significant improvement in the current season. Yeah, so I don't have like a perfect example of this because, again, if you go back and look at Nico Collins, in his 22 seasons, 71% success rate versus man, 74.5% against press. Those aren't elite numbers, but we're talking like 74th percentile success rate versus press. That's a really high quality mark for an ex-receiver, a guy who's going to play on the line of scrimmage. I just thought he was, again, completely underrated and was again getting that quarterback upgrade.

So not a perfect example here, but in terms of a guy. that I think is underrated and I think his playing time should improve is Dantavian Wix from the Packers. Here we go. Everybody has said this the entire summer. I know, I know. And that's why like this is not unique.

So I had like kind of a, I have a backup name too that's a little bit more of a deeper cut. But let's stick in it, Zontavian Wix, though. What about his profile? I don't mean to to poo that. But it's,

it's been every like analyst and film watchers favorite player to break out of 2024. has been Donovan, Donovan, Twatheon Wix, but you actually have the granular reasons that this would happen. So give me the numbers about why you're confident about Don Tantavian Wix. Yeah, so first of all, if everybody's in a consensus,

it's definitely not going to happen. Especially on a receiver depth chart, where there's like, I'm a huge fan of Jaden Reed. His charting profile's really good. He's coming off a great season. Like, Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs are good to some degree, and they have like all these other guys at tight end, running back, etc.

So it is a really crowded offense and like there's no way to get around that. But again, Dante Vicks, day three rookie lined up multiple places last year. He took 64.6% of his sample snaps outside. He was in the slot 30.2%. He was even in the backfield as kind of like a pre-snap motion player on 5.2% of the snaps I sampled for him. He's off the line on 54.9%. He's on the line on 45.1%. So a guy that you get glimpses of playing all three receiver positions, which I think

is going to matter to get on the field here for the Packers in year two. But really, it is his route running. It is his separation. 72.2% success rate versus man. That's a great indicator. Like, bottom line, like, I can give you all these numbers with reception, data points, et cetera, and I will because I think it's important to take a player's profile in its full sense and use that contextual data to talk about every piece of

thing. But, like, if we're talking about breakout receivers, if you're going to be a guy that lines up outside and you beat man coverage in reception, over 70%, like we're interested in those players. Like that's just kind of the quick and dirty way to do it. So Wix checks that box, but you look at like some of the routes that he was really successful on getting open, you know, out routes,

slant routes, curl routes. So I think he's a three level player. That, again, is another thing that's really exciting to me. I just thought he looked very disciplined as a route runner in control once he kind of got things figured out. So a player that got a little bit better as the season went on too. So on any other depth chart, I'd be like there's no way they can keep this guy on the bench. It's just a crowded and very young room.

He's also a very young player that makes it difficult here in Green Bay. I love him. I mean, I love watching him last year. He's just one of those guys. You watch him run routes. And the first thought is he's got it. Like there is something to that guy. He meets the eye test in every way that you want to.

Outside of opportunity, that what I wanted to ask you is, if everyone is in on this, where could we be wrong? So beyond the target share and beyond that room being crowded, is there anything about him specifically as a player that you think we might be overlooking as this chorus has erupted about what sort of guy he might be in 2024. You know, it's really hard because I thought he showed good ball skills towards the end of the year. I thought he really snuck up on you after the catch. He went down on first contact on just 41.7% of his in-space plays, which is, again, for me... You're not playing ball with me here, huh?

I know, no, like, this is the thing I think from like an in-player, perspective, I mean, he had some like weird drops to start, like to start when he first started getting playing time, the whole thing. I think what could just be difficult is that I talk about him as a player that can play all three different positions. He can win in multiple ways. Maybe he ends up being like sort of a jack of all trades master of none type, which would end up making him like a pretty clear fourth receiver for them. That is definitely possible. And like, yeah, when he gets on the field, he's going to be really productive in these per route metrics, but because they have a guy in Jaden Reed, like I said, I think he can play a little bit outside,

but he's primarily going to be a slot receiver for them. You know, Christian Watson, I think actually they could do a little bit more of almost like Mickey Mouseing his role a little bit. I think they put too much on his plate last year and being a vertical downfield receiver. People forget that, you know, Watson, he was on the field and was getting a lot of targets and people point to that about, well, yeah, when he was on the field and healthy, he was getting all that opportunity. Those are also some of the worst weeks of the offense, you know,

before things started really clicking. And I don't think that's all Christian Watson's problem, but I think a lot of that is because they were forcing him into more of a traditional outside receiver role where that's not really his comfort level to me. And then Dobbs is like, the funny thing about Romeo Dobbs is that if he was like 10% worse as a player, I'd be like, yeah, just get that guy off the field

and put Wix there and that's fine, but he's not. So it's tough. It's so true. He's exactly on the line where it's, I understand it. I understand why he's getting these opportunities. He's just less exciting. than pretty much everyone else within the offense. And he's gotten so much better

from where he was as a rookie. If you just think about how crispy plays and just how reliable he is as a player, all that stuff. With Watson, it's like, part of me just wants to see him used as speed seasoning and not have as robust of a role as he does. And I understand that's difficult to do

when you consider draft capital and some of the flashes that we've seen from him. But as I think about the room holistically, him just as like the vertical option that actually isn't a target magnet and is more just a piece of how everything else fits together, that version of the Packers' offense, I think is the most intriguing version to me.

Yeah, so I think when you go back and look at his route tree from year one to year two, like his screen route percentage dramatically drops off. Again, they ask him to do a lot more real deal downfield receiver things, which to me is just he's, the only thing I like Christian Watson, but the only thing I push back on is that people kind of seem to think like, oh, as long as he stays healthy,

it's wheels up for him. No, there's still like a lot of developing and room to grow for him as a player. And again, this concept might come up when we talk about, you know, maybe some other receiver situations, but with Romeo Dobbs specifically, I'm obsessed with this idea, Robert, of like the sacrificial

ex-receiver or the sacrificial backside receiver as these smart offensive coordinators and play callers want to do so much with like pre-snap motion and running guys full speed at the snap and all that. You can do that, but you also kind of need somebody to just, if you're going to, like, let's say we have Christian Watson

and Jaden Reed doing all this fun stuff over here on the quarterback's front side. You kind of need somebody to just like eat grass on the other side and run routes and just line up on the line of scrimmage and do almost like what's become the dirty work or the non-sexy work for some of these offenses that don't have that ex-receiver, which I think Green Bay right now is still one of those offenses. And like Dobbs is just really, he's good in that role. So that idea of the sacrificial X-receiver is something that's been on my mind a lot this off-season.

He's one of like the forefront players. It's interesting. If he's probably the least exciting of the four, but he has the clearest role. Like the archetype of what he is is the most obvious, even if I think he's the least exciting player among that receiving group. You said you had another answer to this who might be this year as Nico Collins question that was not Dantavian Wix. Who is your secondary answer? Yeah. And I'm of the three players like Nico Wix and then this guy, I would say that I'm,

the least excited about him and just high on him overall as a player. And I think like, like, Nico Collins, I would consider right now in that second tier of receivers, like in the league what we talked about at the top. I don't think Johan Dotson is ever going to get into that second tier. But I think he is a guy that, like, people thought Nico Collins, people that weren't watching games, thought Nico Collins was like an actively bad player. I think if you look at John Dotson's like per route metrics and, you know, target metrics, the whole thing, he looks like an actively bad NFL player. because he was just out there,

just not a productive player last year. Reds, press, man. Yeah, like, period, end of story. But that offense last year, I don't know how you felt about the commander's offense, but because, like, I'm a longtime Terry McLauran guy, I like Jahan Dotson as a prospect, and, like, my dad is a weird Sam Howell fan.

I actually spent a lot of time. He's a UNC guy, so you'll like breakmate, too. But I spent a lot more time. Also, I live in Virginia, so close to the team and all that stuff. I spent a lot of time watching the commander's offense last year. And that was, I think, if I was to sit down to rank, like which offenses I enjoyed watching, they're one of the bottom three teams.

I thought it was really poorly designed. You know, you got so many dudes out there running routes and, like, getting designed targets, like truly designed targets to these non-needle-moving running backs and tight ends, the whole thing. I think Dotson, again, doesn't look like a superstar at all in reception, maybe, like, at his best is a good, decent number two. But again, in this season where he wasn't getting targets, he was running a lot of these wind sprints, he's still like a 79% success rate versus zone player, right around 70% success rate versus man.

I think that he can be the second receiver in that offense alongside Terry McLaurin, which, again, not super sexy, but somebody that can do much more from a production standpoint than what he's done so far. And that's why I appreciate the work that you guys do so much, because that's what we're trying to separate here. It's like this is a guy who has so many people have soured on because he has a first round pick. there were glimpses as a rookie. He falls off huge in year two. I'm sure a lot of people got burned in fantasy. A lot of people are probably like, I'm done with Johan Dotson. But there are reasons to hold on to a little bit of hope. And that's why we're having this conversation. Yeah, they all subscribe to my site. They're there. They also, one guy, another guy wanted to talk about it. He's not necessarily this year's version of

anything. But we haven't talked about his situation much on the show. And I felt like you were a good person to have this discussion with because you were always a fan of his. And I think can really bring some good context about what he is as a player to what the Niners should do. And that's Brandon Ayuk. So as you went back and looked at Iyuk season last year and how he's profiled over the last couple years, and we're thinking about those tiers and where he fits into the position hierarchy as a whole, what sort of player is Brandon Ayuk in your mind at this stage of his career? Man, as you mentioned, I've always been high on Iyuk to the point that he was kind of like

my favorite bet to break out going into the 2021 season after his 2020 rookie season, because you look back to that rookie season and reception for reception, 75.7% success rate versus man, 77.6% against press. I mean, those are incredible numbers for rookie season. That, like I said, that says go all in on this type of player, becoming an eventual superstar bare minimum. He obviously did not be, it was not a superstar player. He's barely playing in the first few weeks of the 2021 season,

which ironically is the season that I launched the website. I was like, oh boy, we're going to have to close down shop. Like, Brandon, I youth might literally destroy my career. This is, this is brutal. We know there was the whole doghouse situation. They put a lot of effort into, like, grooming him into the player that he now is today. Like, a guy that blocks his ass off is, like, a detailed technician. From a route running perspective with him coming out of college,

I thought he was a little bit of one of these, like, Kyle, kind of wild horse route runners. You know, not just fully a detailed technician yet. it's crazy to think what he's become now, which to me, I think he's one of the best route runners in the league. Talk about where I rank these guys in real life, the receiver tiers. I thought he was a tier two receiver coming into 2023.

And obviously he had an incredible season last year. He's like his profile actually should, I don't know when we're putting this podcast out, Robert, but like by the time it's out, it might be up on the site. And like, let me tell you what, like it's going to knock people's socks off

because he's like a 90th percentile player almost across the board. You know, I just think to me, I know there's contract, you know, complications. They've got to think about paying Purdy at some point. They're paying other players. McCaffrey, Debo, Kittle, the whole deal, you know, they have a great roster. But I struggle to see how this offense can be maximized without an IUC type of player on it. This actually is a great tweet from David Guatieri, who does really good work. in the fantasy space.

But there have only been a small handful of players who have averaged three plus yards per route run on 400 plus routes since 2010. Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones did it three times in a row. 2015, 2016, 2017, absolutely absurd.

Cooper Cup, Tyree Kill twice, and Brandon Ayuk and Nico Collins. If you look at just some of those, think about some of those seasons. Julio Jones, 2015, 2016, X receiver in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Andre Johnson.

X receiver in the Kubiak Shanahan offense. Nico Collins, X receiver in the Texans, Shannon, Bobby Sloak, offshoot offense. Then Brandon Iuk in this offense in San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan last year. We get caught up in like the gadgety receivers and like some of the designery stuff that Shanahan does and all that stuff is great.

But to me, this offense is fully maximized when you have a high tier, tier two or somewhere from Nico Collins to Julio Jones, one of the best receivers to ever. put on the cleats. When you have that guy in that ex-receiver position, you can get these truly special seasons. And Iyuk is that a plus level pressman beater.

I just think you remove that guy from this offense. This thing is going to look dramatically different and for the worst of it. His connection with Purdy and the element that those two guys bring on downfield outside the numbers type throws, when they could just take them and when they're available, they didn't used to have that. That wasn't a part of this.

And their ability to tap into that last year took this thing to a different level. And I just don't know if you can get that with somebody who's 75% as good as he is. I don't think you can't. So now the question becomes, what are the practicalities of this, right? So Matt Barrows, who covers the Niners

very well for the athletic reported, I think it was last week or a couple weeks ago, that the Niners had recently offered him a deal about $26 million a year. That's just not going to get it done. If I'm my yukes people, I'm bringing that yards per route run number into the meeting, sliding it across the table and be like, here we go. This is easy. The tier of guys that I'm in is easy.

And the fly in the ointment, I think, with a lot of people, because DeVontes Smith got 25 a year, you know, Jalen Waddle, I think got 2080 a year as those kind of 1B type receivers. I'm sure the Niners are going to try to profile him as one of those 1B guys. He's just not. But the one that is the most complicated factor to all of this to me is the Al-Anra Saint-Bron contract. If I'm on Ross St. Pround is getting $30 million with $77 million guaranteed, then I wouldn't take a penny less than that if I were Brandon Ayuk. And if you look at the contracts that have been handed out over the last couple months, St. Brown was at 30 with 77 guaranteed, AJ Brown was at 32 with 84 guaranteed. If I'm Ayuk's people, I'm not asking for Justin Jefferson money. I'm being reasonable here. Why don't you be reasonable with me? I'll take 31 a year with 80 million dollars guaranteed. Let's call it.

a day. Yeah, and here's the problem, too, and I would definitely feel this way if I was I Iuke and if I was, you know, in I yukes camp, which I don't know, maybe, give me a little representation here. My God, I mean, I nobody can tell you more about Brandon I youth than me at this point. Me and you need like, you deserve like a 10% like agents cut and I just need like a little bit of like a 2% by the time this is all said and done. You and me have been banging the brand and I uthrum for a very long time. You, you much louder than I have. Let me tell you what. I mean, what's St. Brown getting, you know, 30 million per year? If he gets close to that and I'm getting 10% of it, you're never, you're never here from me again.

So let's not do that. But no, on a serious note, like, he's, Brandon Ayukes is a better player than Amonara St. Brown. I know he's not the same, like, productive, but this is why it matters to look at receivers within buckets within the position. Because, like, what Iyuk is asked to do in this offense, like I said, as that pure boundary, like perimeter X receiver, it's just a totally different world than a guy like St. Brown or even a guy like Debo Samuel. And I know at times I've come off

as a Debo Samuel hater because he's always been a great zone coverage beater but he is consistently throughout the course of his career even in his great seasons struggled against press man coverage. And now everybody says that

coming off of the Super Bowl but that's been the reality of his career period like in reception perception every single year. And even like during Debo's like most dynamic seasons, which I think we can all agree

he's probably never going to reach these heights again. But even in that 21 season where Iyuk is in the doghouse, he's not really a part of the offense in the first half of the year, and Debo is putting up these absurd numbers. It still felt like in the early part of that season, like, God, something is missing from this offense. Like there is an element from a downfield route running perspective, like man coverage beating perspective that is missing,

even when Debo is doing the things that he's doing. And part of that's quarterback play, but I think part of that was not having a Brandon Ayyuk fully integrated and at the height of his powers in the offense, which I'm glad you brought up Purdy too. I know if Purdy's like almost like a hot topic that you know, like a don't touch that part of the stove or whatever. But for me, when I watch Ayuk and then obviously watch Purdy, like the difference between Purdy and all these other guys that the 49ers have run out of quarterback is like Purdy will take the hard throws. And Ayuk is running the hard

routes. And like that's the thing that makes him different to anybody else in this roster. to me, Ayyuk, is just that he can run those plays where they don't have. I like Ricky Pearsall a lot. I was actually pleasantly surprised when the first round, but even he doesn't profile is like that type of player. It's easy for us to sit here and say, well, pay him, pay him before looking at the practicalities of it. So if we look at this, the Niners are right now slated to be $38 million over the cap

in 2025. They're currently slated to bring over a lot of cap space from this year. They have like $30 million in current cap space. So that numbers, you can fudge that a little bit. But if they wanted to do this, if they're, They wanted to extend him. And if you look at Amon Ross & Brown's contract as an example, he is a $14 million cap hit in the first year of that extension.

So if it was something like that for Ayuk, you could pretty easily, with the money you're going to carry over, and if you moved on from Debo at potentially one more high profile guy with a lot of money, let's say Javon Hargrave. If you cut him as opposed to June first, you could save a lot of money. They could pretty easily fit IYuk's deal into next year's financial situation. And then in 2026, it gets a little dicier. You got massive cap hits for Bosa and Warner.

You're going to have to pay Purdy by that point. But theoretically, you could do it. Trent Williams is a huge question. Like, if you wanted to restructure his contract at some point, either going into next year or whenever, he's going to be 38 years old in 2026. He'd have like a $45 million cap it if you move some money around. So it's not going to be easy for them to do,

but they could still probably fit it in if they were willing to make concessions elsewhere, including maybe moving on from Debo next year. And if I had to choose between them, it wouldn't even be a conversation. Like, I just, I'm choosing the younger, harder to find less injury prone, rarer talent. And I think that that's IUC by far when you compare the two of that. Yeah, it's weird because Debo operates in this extremely singular role that you might not be able to replicate. You might not be able to find another Debo same.

Like every, Debo is on my like holy trinity of you can't comp a player to this guy during draft season. I automatically know it's a bad comp. People gave freaking trailing Burks like Debo Samuel comps. I mean, give me a break, bro. But that's how unique of a player he is that everybody tries to find the next one. There is never a next one. But just in terms of the role on the offense, it's going to be much harder to find an ex-receiver that can operate at that level versus, you know, a secondary receiver like Debo. And yeah, I mean, Kittle is 31 years old.

He has a $20 million cap hit next year as well. Like I just think that I try to do all I can to keep these guys together this year. that's for sure. But going forward, I do not want, if I'm having 13 under center, I do not want number 11 anywhere else other than my offense. I think that's a great point. The pretty part of this, I do think is worth considering. And their connection and their relationship that they have is worth considering. And you pointing out that Debo is a more unique player. I think that's probably right. But if you're trying to find the best version of your offense as the Niners, if you could get a player who is 75% of Debo or 75% of IUC and slot them in, I think that you'd have more value

you and your offense as a whole would be better with the 75% of Debo than it would be to the 75% of IUk if that makes sense. Totally agree. Yeah, 100%. The other part of this is they could franchise it. And I think that that should be on the table because that gives you less flexibility, right? Because you're $25 million, which is probably what the receiver tag is going to be, is going to hit the cap all at once.

And this isn't a situation like the Bengals where you can eat all of T. Higgins is $25 or whatever, the $21 million tag because you're not really up. against it financially. The Niners are. So that flexibility, I think you could maybe prioritize that. But at the same time, if 2026 is the year that you're really worried about, it might be worth taking that $25 million in one year and moving other money around in the short term and prioritizing some flexibility into 26 and 27, all of that after you have to pay the quarterback. So I understand both sides of it. I think no matter what happens and based on the timeline the Niners have, he should be on the San Francisco 49ers in 2024 and 2025, whether it's on the tag or on some

sort of extension. The thing is, like, if they were going to trade him, like, you, if you're trading that player, you better get the AJ Brown trade package. Like, I've seen people throw out, like, what about a second round? I mean, second round pick for a player of brand I use caliber. That's insane. And if you look back at AJ Brown, his last season in Tennessee was 21, 78.8% success rate versus man in that season, 84.6% against press. I mean, just an absurd, like, obnoxiously good receiver, even if the counting stats didn't play that out. Ayuk is going to profile that way. And I mean, he did even, even last year in reception, in 22, not 23. So, yeah, last year, you know what I'm saying? Like, in 23, his data is going to be right there with A.J. Brown's

previous, like, last season in Tennessee, I think that's a, like, they're very similar players, It's just the arc of where Brown is that if you're watching him, if you're looking at him from like a pro route metric, you're looking at him in reception, he was an elite receiver in disguise similar to like the Stefan Diggs situation in Minnesota. And then it became obvious when he goes to a new team where the offense is just more built through him where he was that featured guy. And the same thing would happen to IUC if he was on another team as well.

So, I mean, it should happen to him on this team once they move on from these other guys. So that's what I would be trying to do if I was a 49ers. It's like I wouldn't even entertain a trade discussion if it didn't include like the AJ Brown package, which I don't know that they're going to get at this stage of the calendar. And also the tight and even next year, they've wanted to tag him and see what might happen with that. But do you think the Titans would do the AJ Brown deal again? I certainly don't think they would. So even if you're getting the return that the Titans did in the AJ Brown deal, the Titans are now having to scramble and pay Calvin Ridley because they ended up trading AJ Brown.

So that's into the situation where it easily happened in San Francisco. Debo hits a wall. They move on from Debo at say after the 25. five season. And then you're sitting there in 2026 with Ricky Pearsall and looking at your roster saying, man, it would be really awesome if we had a Brandon I, you type of player that we could drop into this offense with Brock Purdy.

So it's going to be fascinating to watch. But again, we hadn't really dug into that. Let's stick in the NFC West and get back to our who is this year's version of X type of conversation. Pooka Nakua. If you had to pick a guy who could be this year's version of Pooka Nakua, and we're fudging

this a little bit. I want to talk about rookie receivers taking taken outside of the first round that you thought had intriguing profiles that landed in situations that could potentially benefit them. So this doesn't have to be a fifth round pick that ends up shattering records

and is like 1,500 yards receiving. I'm just talking about a guy outside of the first round that you think could outpace what normal projections would probably tag onto that guy. Yeah, it's great that you frame the question this way because we are actually doing a series

on Yahoo right now called Flip the Script where we try to find the this year's version of last year's big surprises. And the one I like, do we, I really don't want to have to do with this year's Puka just because, you know, it's like the Twitter account's going to tweet it out. Like, you can't, you can't say anything about like, this guy's going to be this year's Puka because it's just such a unique situation. But, you know, we're all beholden to our masters, Robert, and I am doing the episode. So I will, I will entertain the question here since you framed it a

little bit easier as well. Like, when you, actually, when you go back and look at Puka, I think it's instructive too, because he had a really good, profile. Like his data and reception perception perception was good. He was a good man coverage beater. He's a good zone coverage beater. He showed you a lot of traits to just be a good good, what I think I framed him as a good, rugged, complementary receiver.

I mean, again, I liked Puka. That is not what he was. He out kicked that by leaps and bounds. And it's funny when you look at him in the Rams' offense, like if you look at his route percentage chart in reception, it looks like a slot receiver route tree. Like it's, in terms of

green routes, like the routes he's running above the NFL average. It's all these like slant routes, curl routes, dig routes, in breaking routes. There's no nine routes. There's almost no post routes really mixed in there. But he's obviously doing that more from the outside. So it was a really unique role. I think that's got to be a part of this too. When we're talking about like who's this year's version of it, two players stand out to me. Pick that's out of the first round. This guy was a high second round pick. So it's not that interesting. But Jalen Polk by the New England Patriots, I really liked Polk's game. 83.5% success rate versus zone coverage. That's

81st percentile against just all prospects. It was actually tied for best in this class with his teammate, Roma Dunezay, ironically. So Dunezai, great player. I think Polk shows you that ability to work over the middle of the field. You know, again, dig routes, these big post routes, crossing routes. He's got good hands. He's got buildup speed. And that's a team that really needs somebody to emerge in that role to me.

So again, the opportunities there. I don't know how he's going to be utilized in this offense because we don't really know who Alex Van Pelt is, but if they're going to do anything that sort of resembles what the Browns were doing last year with Joe Flacco, right? This big quarterback who could push it off play action, which you think that certainly Brissette can do that,

but definitely Drake May if he hits his potential in there. I think that works well with these big and breaking routes that Jalen Polk has given the did on film and I think could give the Patriots this year. One of my stops I'm most looking forward to as I go to training. camps over here over the next month is I'm going to New England for the first time in a while and very excited to chat with people there about what this might look like and the Alex fan pelt of

it all. So I think you and I both intrigued about what the structure of the offense might be. I totally get that with Polk. How do you feel about Javon Baker? Where were you at about where were you at with him as a prospect coming in? Because this is one of those offenses where I did a show with Ben Gretch last week. We were talking about uncertainty as opportunity and fantasy and who the hell knows who's going to get targets here. Who the hell knows what the roles are going to look like. So in your mind, how much of a candidate for a big role or for some productive work is a Javon Baker coming into the league? Yeah, it's a great question because I actually had these two guys graded in the same tier in terms of like my stacked prospect rankings.

And I had it in the, I had where Polk went is kind of where I had thought Baker could have gone. And they get this guy in the fourth round. And their skill sets are very different. Like the role I kind of outlined for Polk there is more of that, you know, maybe 30 percent slot. player, but probably more an offball outside player, you know, a flanker, just like Puka did a lot of that stuff. Even if he was an outside receiver, he was off the ball so he could do that like build up speed, which I think is a really big part of his game. Polk should be that. Whereas Baker, I mean, he was just, and it's weird because he's in this big 12 offense, you know, it's kind of wide open. It's a little bit messy from a translation perspective, but he's an outside receiver on the line

of scrimmage. Like he very much profiled as an ex receiver to me. He's shown an ability to win against pressman coverage, albeit again, at a lower level. of competition, but this is the guy that ran a nine route on 35% of the routes I charted, which is just, again, nuts so stuff, but the fact that he still has, like, good success rate versus man zone press while running all these vertical routes is super encouraging. So I thought he went a little layer in the draft than I expected. And you're right, when he stands out, if you look at this receiver room, because, you know, Pop Douglas, DeMarro Douglas, definitely a slot receiver, a bit of a weird slot receiver,

because he's more of a man beater than a zone beater, which is not really typical with that receiver archetypes you're going to play inside. but I still think he looked like a nice player as a rookie and then like these other guys they have on the roster they still have J. J. Ozbourne none of these players look like an X maybe Kendrick Bourne can be their ex receiver because he is a decent man-beater

but he's coming off a major injury that's what makes Baker so interesting is that he sort of stands out as a one of these things doesn't look like the other in the receiver room. And I think that's exactly how I think about it is like his role and the fact that there's nobody like him within that group right now

and the way that you've just talked about Polk, Doug, and Baker, that all fits together. Like, in an ideal world, you can play all of those three guys together, and I wonder what the opportunities look like early. Because if you talked to people in Green Bay last year, they understood a little bit of outside pressure

to potentially add a veteran or two to that mix, just because it's a real challenge, and it's kind of dangerous to go into a season with a group that looks like that. But look at how it benefited them. Letting those guys learn on the job and letting those guys get all of those snaps, we think about the Packers completely differently right now

than we would have if they had Kendrick Bourne as their number one target earner all of last season. So I'm curious how the Patriots go about this because even if there's certain comfort in lining up veterans and giving those veteran options to your young quarterback, I also think that not creating roadblocks to opportunities for these sorts of young players,

there are benefits waiting on the other side of that for you. Yeah, the Green Bay models are really good one to bring up with these players because, yeah, I've said this a lot with this receiver depth. Yeah, I know there's guys like Juju that they paid money to and Kendrick Boren who, I think Gerard Mayo said at one point, like, it's good that these young guys don't have a guy like Kendrick Boren out here to get so that they can get these opportunities, which to me signals like, oh, they think he's just like a day one set and forget it starter. And they paid him a pretty decent contract too. But that almost that quote sort of makes your point there that like these guys are going to be able like, I would just throw these kids out there and like try to sink or swim. Certainly Polk, definitely Douglas, see what these guys have. And then Baker, like, I do think he might be a little bit more of a developmental player because, you know, he mostly lined up on one side of the field. He was just strictly in that one role in a wide open UCF offense. But like by week four, if he's showing me that he can do some stuff, I want that guy on the field, maybe in a Dante Vicks type of way, who we talked about earlier, that we'll get him some reps,

maybe at the expense of a guy like Kendrick Bourne. Because, yeah, to me, I think I'm not worried about these guys like Osborne and Juju, etc. Like, I want to see what these young guys can do. You had one other guy that you want to throw out here as a Jalen Polk adjacent sort of option that might be a version of this year's Puka. Who was that?

Yeah, just because this player is way more, I mean, even I like Jalen Polk, but this player is way more exciting. That's Jermaine Burton, who was drafted in the third round by the Cincinnati Bengals. Like talking to people before the draft, I was surprised he even went in the third round.

Because, you know, and I know Dane Bruegler, who works with you guys, did a lot of outlining on, like, some of the, in his draft guide about some of the character issues and stuff like that. I talked to people who were pretty harsh about him from an off-field perspective, too. And so, again, I thought he might, like, go to the very end of the draft, like, day three.

So him getting picked in the third round, I thought was interesting signal there by the Bengals who, you know, have taken chances at times over their run. But, like, when you look at him from a reception perception profile standpoint, like, this guy profiles as a round one type of receiver. I mean, he was that good from an individual basis. The production wasn't there because, again, you know, maybe there's off-field questions, and certainly he was a pure vertical receiver in Alabama offense that they didn't have a quarterback last year. He was getting picked first overall.

Let's put it that way at Alabama last season like Bryce Young did previously. He is, again, that pure vertical outside receiver, 86 percentile success rate versus man, 86 percentile against press, solid zone beater as well. And he's in an offense right now where they need a third receiver for sure because Tyler Boyd is out of the mix, as you mentioned, he's in Tennessee. T. Higgins, is he just going to be there for this year? probably like there's long-term opportunity but I also think there's immediate opportunity

and I've been saying a lot this offseason that I would not be surprised. In fact, I expect Jamar Chase probably takes more snaps inside this year than he has at any other point in his career. That number already ticked up last year. They've sort of wanted to design him more plays on the inside. I think teams are wisely doing this

with their top receivers more and more anyways. And with Boyd gone and Higgins is a pure outside player, I think Burton is a pure outside player. Like, yeah, let's get, Jamar Chase more of these layup routes, but that will create some opportunity for Burton to get on the field, even if he is not necessarily your typical slot receiver, which is what they're

looking for. Yeah, I was going to mention the chase uptick and slot opportunities. It feels like that allows Burton to get on the field a little bit more, have more opportunities as a rookie, and their offense, you could feel it changing. I think if you wanted to go back and look at the Niners game specifically, the ways that they were using Jamar Chase and kind of what the overall structure of

it looked like, and we were headed in a certain direction before the injuries happened, and then things change a little bit when you have to and Jake Browning, but I absolutely figured that we'll see more of that from Jamar Chase, so that makes total sense. Chase actually told me in February at the Super Bowl during one of our interviews, he said

that he's still, he is actively working to gain the coaching staff's trust in the slot. Like, they don't fully trust in there to run the full route tree. I thought that was an interesting kind of throwaway comment he had, that I had him kind of expand on because he wants more of those opportunities because he sees guys like CD Lamb, you know, running

this, a huge percent of his routes from the slot and getting these layup targets. And it's probably a topic we'll come back to a later point. But I thought that was interesting that he even mentioned that to me. Well, it makes things easier, man. Life's a little bit easier in there. Your matchups, you're dictating at that point in a way you can't when you're on the outside. And obviously without Tyler Boyd there, that opens up a huge amount of slot opportunities.

If this is going to be a team that plays in, I don't know what the percentage is, 85%, 11 personnel, the same way they have over the last couple years. Let's move on to our next one here. Which early career-wide receiver? So let's say second or third year. Do you think is primed to take a really big step this year? There's a lot of wiggle room within that question. I wanted to give you a lot of sandbox to play around in. But who did you land on for that?

Yeah, so I think a guy that we could all universally agree is in tier two. Like I said earlier, I think Garrett Wilson is already a tier two player. And he could have that potential to jump to tier one. But somebody that's not there right now, I think could universally be there by the end of the year. And this is a little bit of a layup, a cheat answer. But it's Drake London. and it's for all the obvious reasons that we know. But I think when you just, again, isolate him as a player,

he is almost exclusively been used as an X receiver through the first two years of his career. Pure. And by the way, it makes sense because if you tell me who else they were playing at X receiver, if it's not Drake London with the 20s. Because Kyle Pitts? Right, it was Kyle Pitts. And by the way, that didn't go very well.

That was not a successful exercise. So with Drake London, taking 85% of his snaps and 82. point four percent of his sample snaps on the line of scrimmage in his first two years. I think that number's coming down this year. I think they're going to use him in ways, like, not fully like they use Pooka Nakua in L.A., but obviously Zach Robinson coming from that coaching staff.

But there's some, you know, crossover there. And again, to bring up one of my Super Bowl interviews, Pooka Nakua said his favorite route to run was a dig route, especially off like Dagger concept. They did a whole breakdown on this on my YouTube page showing like, going into that conversation, looking at Pooka Kua's route tree, and then looking at Drake Lundon's route. 11.5% of his routes last year were dig routes,

79.3% success rate. He can do those plays. And those are the routes that Kirk Cousins loves to throw. Like he has been a high quality crossing route over the middle passer. The quarterback synergy, which is super important when we're talking about this guy making this leap. That is a big box check to me. But also, like, let's just say in the off chance,

you know, things don't work out with Kirk Cousins. They took a quarterback eighth overall. Everybody's aware of that. Michael Pennix is much more of like a outside the numbers you know like give my guy chances Drake London also does that really well corner route success rate really high

out route success rate really high so this is just a player that I think is overall I think people generally think him think that he's a good player and I think he's a good player too all of his RP metrics are at the level that you want of a guy to be your number one receiver but I wonder if you could be even further maximized

beyond the fact that we know he's not played with good quarterbacks he's played in Arthur Smith's offense, the whole thing. Like, I think from a role in a deployment perspective, we might even see further maximization with him going forward. That 11.5%, I assume the Rams guys are even higher than that. I mean, if you look at it, the numbers I deal with aren't as granular, but if you look at just in-breaking routes or in cuts on true media,

like that Puka, I think, led the league pretty comfortably, and Drake London, even if you profile him as somebody who would be good at that sort of stuff, it's not that high. You know, it's like 20th to 25th among all receivers. I would assume after this season is over, he's going to be in that Puka range and how often he's running those routes. And I love that for him

because I think his skill set perfectly aligns with what he's going to be asked to do within this offense. Yeah, the players, and I haven't charted out the full league yet, that's up. Their guys are going to be added to the site throughout the course this summer. A lot of receivers in the league, if people weren't aware of this.

The top three players in dig route percentage that I've charted so far, Puka, only guy, like far and away, number one, one. Number two is Nico Collins. Number three is Don Tavian Wick. So these guys that come from that tree. And I think that's going to definitely be Drake London this year. Anybody else other than Drake London, who I totally am with you, after going back and watching him and then just thinking about what he might look like within the Rams offense, it's hard not to be excited about him, Kirk Cousins, the volume that's coming his way, he checks every single box. Anybody other than

Drake London in that second or third year camp that you think is prime to take a big step this year for one reason or another. Yeah, I think there's a lot of second year receivers I like. But I think that one guy coming out of the charting process that, you know, kind of I thought had a better rookie season than some people thought was Jackson Smith and Jigba, who again, from some of these like production-based metrics, not really a good rookie season. But, you know, the usage was weird for sure. People have harped on that a lot about it, the early season, kind of like almost being used as a Rondale Moore type player. My favorite parts about him as a collegiate prospect was his ability

to win in the intermediate area as a separator and as a route runner. That's, I think, what you saw last season. He just didn't get the ball thrown his way that often, which, like, it was easy to see coming. Beyond the fact that he had a preseason injury, which, man, I mean, Robert, you know this.

Like, receivers, unless you're Odo Beckham, like, if you miss time during the ramp up to the season, like, unless you're a total freak show like that, you missed any sort of time in the ramp up to the season. It can be really difficult, especially when you're working the veteran quarterback who has real deal built in chemistry with these two rock star receivers. Like, it was just going to be tough for him to get the ball in year one.

I think this year's interesting with Ryan Grub coming in there, who I think is going to emphasize more of those intermediate routes that I like to see JSN running, you know, and even like bigger post routes. Like, he can definitely do that stuff too. He's got a man coverage success rate that makes me think he can play outside as a flanker. You know, Tyler Lockett, I love Tyrolockett, long time, like reception, perception, Hall of Famer is Tyler Lockett, but he's another year older. I think JSN is primed to take a pretty decent step in year two after a rookie season that showed

a lot of under the radar decent signs. If you look, again, the alignment of what the offense is structured like and what his skill set is, you can just drop him into what Washington was doing last year. And it's very, very easy to picture. Some of the third down, like bunch and stack stuff, him running option routes. His fit within the Ryan Grub offense is significantly better than his fit in that outside downfield outside the number of Shane Waldron offense that we saw

over the last couple of years. So those are two guys I'm both. I'm excited to see Drake London in the Zach Robinson offense and I'm very excited to see JSN in the Ryan Grub offense because I think both are well set up to get the best version of each one of those guys. Yeah, you inspired me now. I think I might

tweet out the JSN route chart and the Jalen Polk route chart because just looking at those back to back, they actually look pretty similar. So I think that's a good comparison there. Is there a receiver in your mind that we think we know? We think we've gotten enough exposure to this guy where we have an understanding of who he is,

but we'll look like a different player in 2024 because of a change in situation, whether that's a quarterback, a play caller, just one of those potential or burgeoning stars that you think is hiding in plain sight. Yeah, and I'm going to go with Chris Oliva here, and I'm aware he still has Derek Carr as his quarterback, which, you know, Robert, I don't know where you are with Derek Carr,

to me just like he is what he is but like what how big is the gap of like Derek Carr to all these other guys that has gotten the boost from playing in you know a Shanahan offense which is what I'll kind of expand on here a second I don't know I'm not I didn't come on your show to say good things about Derek Carr so let me just get get that out of the way

but I do think we're underrating as a whole the difference that this coaching staff is going to bring to the New Orleans offense like I wrote this long piece about this on Yahoo yesterday actually with sort of the premise of like I hope this is a safe space I can I can kind of admit

that I'm a little excited about the Saints offense or just like I wouldn't even say excited I have like a weird fascination with the Saints offense because I'm a huge Olave fan I was a big he was my number one ranked prospect in that draft class and like I was high on London and Wilson but that's how much I liked Olave's game I really like Rashid Shahid as well so maybe I'm just kind of wishcasting some good things for the

receivers here but people, again, don't realize, like, Pete Carmichael has been with the Saints as long as Sean Payton was. Like, they have just had no new ideas really in that building from an offensive perspective for 18 years. I mean, damn near two decades. This is going to be the first time that like some, again, new ideas are entering the brain space of the New Orleans Saints coaching staff.

They hire Clint Kubiak. I don't know if Clint Kubiak is like the next guy, but he's certainly going to bring some of the Kubiak-Shannahan ideas. year. And when you look at Derek Carr last year, corner to PFF among quarterbacks who took 20 plus percent of their teams dropbacks dead last in play action percentage. You look at the Saints from a motion perspective,

pre-snap, or during the snap, dead last. I mean, even if we get those to like the median level, tell me why Chris Olavé, who I think, again, we know who he is. We know he's a great route runner. He was from a reception standpoint

really similar first two seasons. I am always curious then when a guy does that, what's year three going to look like? Is it going to be leveling off at that level? And like, okay, maybe he's a guy that doesn't quite get into that tier two of receivers, but is a very good one? Or is there going to be another step here for him? And I think part of the way that you can take that next step is you're using an offense

that's going to give you a lot more layups. I mean, Chris, a lot of his rookie season, 7.4% of the route side charter for him were a slant route, Robert. That is dead last among all the players I've charted. Since 2014, I mean, we are talking hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of player seasons. And it jumped up all the way to 13% last year, which is still not very high. So I think he's going to get a lot more layups. I think they're going to bring a lot more modern concepts to this offense.

So, like, yeah, God help me. Dennis Allen is still the head coach. Der Carr is still the quarterback. I do think, again, weird fascination with what the offense might look like this year in New Orleans. We're afflicted with the same thing and that we have a weird fascination with Chris Olavé. So you saying this is not surprising to me. And you're preaching to the choir here, unfortunately. The issue is, if you're looking at this from a fantasy perspective, there's no discount

to be had. He's going as like the 16th overall player on underdog, which is, you know, that's part of this, right? Like, we've gotten so much sharper as a football watching community that it's harder for guys like this to sit under the radar. I unfortunately have like a pretty tough decision. I have him at like essentially half or let's say, let's say two thirds of like, market value for a number one receiver

in a keeper league. And I have to decide if I want to pull the trigger. And I think that my undying love for Chris Olive, even if the value might not be there, is going to force me to do it, unfortunately. Yeah, that's a good thing to point out. There is no, like in fantasy, no discount on him. And that

is pretty crazy for a guy that has averaged 79 and a half catches, 1,082 and a half yards and four and a half touchdowns in the two seasons that he's been in the NFL. Like, that doesn't scream 13th overall player or whatever. he's going as. But man, again,

I think that there's nothing about his skill set that says he should be leveled off there. There were definitely some plays left on the field last year and a little bit of weirdness last year too where he was like arrested midseason and, you know, Derek Carr is screaming at him for not fully running his clear-out routes because that's a thing we do now, I guess.

But I just think overall with him as a player, he can be deployed in such a fashion that makes him reach that ceiling. But yeah, certainly from a fantasy angle, you're kind of already paying for that. Similar. The other guy you wanted to mention here, I think is kind of the same conversation. You know, somebody that even if the production hasn't been there, there's no discount coming. And that's Garrett Wilson. Yeah.

I just think that, look, I know this is not, again, not a revelatory thing to say about Garrett Wilson because everybody, I think, realizes he's good. But I don't think people realize just how good Garrett Wilson is. And so, okay, so Garrett Wilson last year, 93rd percentile success rate versus press coverage, 96 percentile success rate versus man coverage in reception perception perception. Robert, these are the players that have done that, again, since 2014 in reception history. Stefan Diggs, Michael Thomas, O'Dell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Devontey Adams, Alan Robinson, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, and now Garrett Wilson.

if we want to throw like another bit of context into it, I mentioned like the press and man numbers, but the players that I would say like are inarguably elite players that I just read off there, which I would say is Diggs, Michael Thomas, O'Dell Beckham, Antonio Brown, DeMonte Adams, AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson. Like the other guys, decent players,

sorry to mention Alan Robinson twice on the show. But you know, those guys, decent players, they had their moments, but those are the guys I think are truly like elite in that group. They also cleared 81% success rate versus zone. coverage, which Garrett Wilson did last year. That is the company he keeps from an isolation perspective. So if he has a season with Aaron Rogers Healthy that he has like a 20-22 Justin Jefferson season,

like the individual film breakdown of him in reception perception backs up that that is within his range of outcomes. I wonder what his odds are for like leading the league in receiving or leading the league in catches. I assume it's decent because, again, in fantasy, you're not getting a discount. I'm just wondering where you can cash in on these Garrett Wilson projections and where he might be slightly undervalue. Probably not as many places as you'd hope. Yeah, that's why it's, again, like kind of a throw.

I wanted to throw that one in there just because I think that's a really interesting note that, I mean, this guy does look like second year, like his second season looks like second year Justin Jefferson. And like, it's easy to know like what Justin Jefferson is now. And I mean, everybody knows he's great. But like, if you actually do go back and look at that season, like he had a bit of a weird contested catch rate. The separation was all there. Just a few things went this that way and the other. And he was super productive in that second season

because he was playing with, you know, Kirk Cousins in a normal offense, not Tim Boyle, in the Jets offense last year. So he's just on that rocket ship upward trajectory where if by, you know, freaking October, we're all saying he's a tier one receiver, zero percent surprise there. I want to talk about some of the bigger picture takeaways

that you had from doing the charting this year. Let's go to the flip side of players that you're excited about. Is there anybody whose trajectory or who's charting data left you a little bit worried. Somebody who maybe we would profile us taking a step forward, but the numbers would lead you to indicate that it's not heading that direction.

So I think this is a great place to have the James and Williams conversation, Robert, because, and I don't know how much, how much have you talked about and, like, thought about James on your show this off season? I have because I'm thinking about and I'm worried about what that number two

receiver role looks like within the lion's offense, just because I think that still is one of the biggest holes they have on the entire roster. And while Josh Reynolds is not a star by any stretch of the imagination, I actually think his skill set within who the Lions were last year was very valuable and complimentary

to what Leporta and Amonra St. Brown are. And I just wonder where that comes from. And I don't think the answer is, more Jameson Williams. Totally agree. I will say that like anytime I have talked about James and Williams, like any, you know, post of videos on like YouTube,

Instagram, frigging like TikTok, because that's a thing I do every now and again, I guess. I mean, that thing blows up. So I've been joking that I didn't realize that James Williams is like the most important player in the NFL. Lions fans are consuming each and everything about them. One of my friends' dads is a huge Lions fan, and I saw him the other day.

And he told me that he just went back and rewatched all the Lions games from last year from start to finish. When you have been in the wilderness for as long as they have as a fan base, and then you become good, you're just eating up everything you possibly, can when it comes to content about your team. Yeah, so when you run across a James and William's video that's like,

let me put a little bit of context in the, no time for context, only time for like wheels up, baby. So, yeah, wheels up, baby. So when you look at James and Williams, I think it's important to, like, I mean, I wrote 1,400 words in his profile. And like, that's long for an RP article. I try not to in and date people that much

because that's how much I think this is really interesting, like to pull apart. So when you just look at his overall success rate versus coverage metrics, like there's no way of getting around. it. He was not good. Like, from an overall perspective last year, he came in under the 15th percentile success rate versus man, zone, and press.

Not encouraging. So I never do this, but I actually pulled his profile into two different samples within the charting data. One, because I actually did these games during the season, and I remember talking about this on reception, perception, the show with James Coe. Like, I did three games on Jamesville Williams from week 11 to week 13, and it was a capital D disaster. I mean, we're talking about like Quentin Johnston, Justin Hunter, Jalen Rager types, you know, overall scores.

And I mean, those are those are some names, baby. Like it was, it was that bad. So at that point, like I kind of, all right, those are the three games I logged, I shelved like that. And then so when I returned to the James and Williams profile to add the last five games, because every reception perception sample is an eight game sample. I looked at games from obviously then week 15 on some games into the playoffs. He actually checks in with a 67.3% success rate versus man. 84.8% against zone, which is really encouraging, and 64.6% against press, which, like, those results are overall a mixed bag, but they're much more encouraging than Quentin Johnson. Like, that looks like something like, I don't know, a Zay Flowers type of player than a damn Quentin Johnson rookie season. So, and there's a wide gap between those two players. So at the same time, though, Robert, I don't, that's the information. And I don't really know what to do with that because I don't have a strong take there to say that, oh, yeah, he is.

that player from week 15 on. And even then, like I said, I think at a best case scenario, maybe he's like a Brandon Cook's type of guy, who to me was never a true number one, even in his best years. I think he was like a big play threat, post routes, you know, some

in-cut routes as well. And I think those are the routes of James and Williams runs really well. I think he looks like a guy that could be relied upon in that role. Vertical player, you know, but again, is that a true number two? That's where the question is with him, because I don't know that it's, we always do this in football analysis,

but the thing we saw last is the truth. And I think when you look at James and William's the last time you saw him, even from a beyond like he made big plays and big games, whatever, he actually looked like a pretty decent player. But there's just, there's still some unknown there if he's going to be that guy. So that's why I find him to be like a really difficult player to think about and discuss because they are truly counting on him.

There's no doubt about that. And I think we still don't really know fully who he is as a player. I was going to ask you, what do you think the best of point? of him is and vertical post-routes, things like that, that makes sense. The difference is going to be similar to Christian Watson conversation. When does it go from you are vertical and speed seasoning within the offense to you are a component piece to who we are? And I think that's the biggest question I have about him is those in cuts you're talking about. That is fundamental to who this team is.

Like they need somebody to do some of that. And if he can't be that type of guy and we're just relying on him for vertical routes, we're talking about two different types of players within the offense. Yeah, so, and that's another thing to mention, too, that throughout the course of this sample, the first part and the second part, total numbers, he lines up on the line of scrimmage on 85.6% of his sampled snaps. He was outside for 72.6%. Like, that's generally like your perimeter X receiver numbers.

And even, again, in a best case scenario, I'm not 100% sold. Because honestly, Robert, even from a prospect profile perspective, I didn't think that vertical X receiver was his best deployment. The Christian Watson example is really good. That's the type of role I'd like to see him in. It's sort of off the ball, you know, being used on some underneath stuff, hit him on slants and drag routes where he's got space to run. And then, yeah, you're going to hit him on vertical routes.

But like working back to the quarterback, that wasn't his strength in college. And it's certainly not been his strength in the NFL. And like, if you're going to line up as that Iyuk type of outside perimeter on the line of scrimmage player, I'm going to need you to work back to the quarterback a little bit and work against man coverage in that way. And that has been the weakness of his game. even dating back to his really strong college season. It's funny because even guys,

the way you're talking about working back to the quarterback and being more than just a speed option, my mind goes to somebody like Tank Dell. Like when you watch Tank Dell play, and even as he's a smaller kind of undersized player, he can do that kind of stuff. He can throttle down in that way. And it's just funny that you can watch a guy

and pretty quickly determine whether or not he is or is not that type of player. And I just don't think that we've seen that with Jameson Williams to this point. Yeah, Tank Dell nuts. absurd player. 80% success rate on comeback routes, 87% successor on curl routes

like the routes that you're mentioning, all 80% success rate on flats, comebacks, outs, and corners, which is the outside breaking routes on the route tree. Like, the fact that this dude is like 100 and whatever pounds, and he's a rookie receiver and winning

like at that level on Big Boy outside breaking routes, it's like, I mean, that receiver core is just insane. Watching him and Zay, those are probably my two guys that I just love on those vertical outbreaking routes. I just think they set them up so, so well. And that's why I'm so bullish on both of them, because like you mentioned, that's the big boy stuff.

If you can do that, then a whole world opens up to you. And I think both of them, you know, tank probably being better at them in the moment, but Zay's showing the flashes. It's why I'm encouraged about the trajectory for each of those guys. Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I didn't throw Zay flowers into this. I didn't throw Tank down into this,

but those are two players that based on their charting profiles, like, made more so for Zay because he had a lot of like design touches and stuff like that's not his that's not all his game i don't want to see him that way i don't i don't care about him that way i think he is more than that and i think he is better than that i think it's a tough thing when you're an offensive coordinator like todd munkin you get there and like it's just so obvious that this guy is dynamic in the open field i mean he breaks tackles at an absurd rate for somebody that's that small and you're just like look we're trying to get we're trying to manufacture offense here and like this is the guy we're not manufacturing offense with bateman who at that

point in the season wasn't even healthy and is not that type of player at all. O'Dell Beckham's not that type of player. Nelson Aguilar, that's he's not that type of player ever, obviously. So I think that was why Zay started the season that way. But you can even see from week one last year, I mean, lining up against cornerbacks on the outside against the Texans, which ended up being, you know, decent defense. And he was running like these outbreaking routes against man coverage. So yeah, he's definitely a player that I think is on our upward trajectory as well.

If you just look at the overall charting that you've done and doing it as an exercise, what were some of the biggest surprises as you just look at all of the data in total? So I'm really grappling with this concept. And I'm curious to hear kind of what you think about this and how you're, like, where your brain is on this. I'm really grappling with the idea and like, honestly, struggling with the concept of like the 1B receiver archetype. Um, your T. Higgins, your Jalen Waddle, you're Devontas Smith.

I think I mentioned that I'm trying to be a harsher critic of receiver play and like, raise my standards of what is like all these tiers that we talk. about earlier. I have generally, and throughout the course of charting receivers and working on this stuff, just kind of thrown out like, yeah, this guy's not the one on his team, but he could be a one on another team. So he's

a one B receiver. Well, you know, Robert B is the second letter in the alphabet. You're still saying like that's a number two receiver. And I think what's made this even more difficult to me is like those three players specifically that we just talked about. T. Higgins,

Jalen Waddle, Devante Smith. especially with the first two, like, what do we say with Jamar Chase earlier? They're getting him a lot more snaps in the slot. They're getting him a lot more snaps off the line of scrimmage. Like, he is the better player, but they're doing things to make his life easier. What, Miami Dolphins offense, I don't think people realize this, but the guy that plays the, quote, harder receiver role in that offense is, is Jalen Waddle because Tyreek is doing all this designery stuff.

He's doing all this, like, we're getting him in full speed motion, the whole thing. And like, of course you do that. You want to do that with Tyree Kill because he's one of the most dynamic players. He's a field flipper. But then that leaves Jalen Waddle, who I don't even know if he is his best profile in this role. But in his first two, last two seasons with the Dolphins, 75.1% and 78.4% of his sample snaps has been of its outside receiver. He's been on the line for 77.9% and 81.2% of his sample snaps. Like that's that, again, IYU type of role in this offense.

But he's not, like, Waddle's a good player. Tyree kills a much better player. And I think this year in Philadelphia, it's going to be super fascinating to see Devante Smith, who at times, especially in his first year with the, or excuse me, AJ Brown's first year with the Eagles, Devante Smith was out there playing that ex-receiver role, whereas they did more to, like, move A.J. Brown around. And I don't think they did a great job with this last year. But, you know, Kellyn Moore comes over there from the Chargers.

And they did a lot of that with Keenan Allen. They did a lot of that with C.D. Lamb when he was in Dallas. And to me, it makes more sense to, I know that. like yes, AJ Brown is the better player. He's the, you look at just an overall success rate versus man in press and R.P., he's the better press man beater. So, like, you want to throw that guy out at X, but like, you also want to get AJ Brown these like open field opportunities.

So I've really struggled with this archetype of the 1B receiver for two reasons. One, because I think teams are doing more than ever to get their best players in these optimal positions to win, even if they don't need that. And none of the three players, Chase, Hill, or Brown need that sort of catering. But two, just again, like, yeah, I think maybe Devante Smith could be a one or another team. I think Waddle maybe could be a one or another team. Higgins is the guy actually think I'm the least bullish on, which is interesting because he's not locked up long term at the Bengals. But again, without that proof of concept, I really struggle with sort of the projection of it.

I think our understanding of what a number one and number two receiver has to be has just shifted. I mean, you think about what these guys are getting paid, you look at the explosion in the market, it and you look at essentially the fact that it's non-negotiable to have one for you to have an elite offense, right? I think the exception of this is probably Amman Ross St. Brown being the primary number one for the Lions. Like you said, he's a very good player, but still probably a tier two player and somebody that's behind Brandon Ayyuk.

But they have so many other pieces of how that thing is designed that allow them to function that way. So I just think that our expectations and our standard for what a number two and number one receiver is have changed over the years. when I've said number 1B, typically the only time I use that term is when we're talking about guys getting paid. Because I think that there is a contract slot that has been attributed to 1B receivers. Chris, the two guys that I would say in the previous version of the cap were Chris Godwin and Mike Williams, where they were both $20 million receivers.

They were paid at a really high level, but they still weren't the number one receivers on their team. And I think that that is true of the way that we're paying guys now. Jaylen Waddle and Devante Smith are a step down, but they're still getting paid a shitload of money, even if they're not the number one player on their team. So I think it's more to me about contracts and how I think about that. But if I look at the players themselves, Devante Smith is a number two receiver in an elite NFL offense in 2024. That's not a derogatory term. That just speaks to where the NFL is in the modern day and where you have to be as an offense to keep pace with the firepower that you're going to see. every single week.

Yeah, and these are three of, we expect, three of the best offenses in the league this season, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Miami. So that's what makes this. And that's why I thought it was so fascinating to see. And if I'm T. Higgins, I'm definitely looking at like, well, the Eagles paid Jalen Hertz. They paid A.J. Brown, and then they paid Devante Smith.

Like, what's the deal with? And there's obviously, there's different front offices and different approaches to contracts. And that's your answer right there. But I definitely think it's fascinating when you look at these 1B type receivers, which I think that's a good way of saying is the contract part of it. Because, yeah, I just thought it's fascinating they ended up just locking these guys in because it's like a fascinating exercise to think about like these players and if they were on another

team. But man, it's a lot more fascinating to think about what if they just step aside from or this, they're aside from this player here in Tyreek with Waddle and A.J. Brown with Devante Smith and like that. The fact that they have guys like Jalen Waddle and Devante Smith who can run these big boy routes, even if that's not their most optimal, I think for Waddle especially, I'm super fascinated if at some point Tyree Kill moves on and Waddle is there like, do they leave him in that role or do they put him in Tyree Kills role? Because man, I think he could go, you know, potentially

go crazy in that role, even if I think he's, I would say he's a tier three receiver in the league. And I think all these guys are at least tier three receivers in the league. So just fascinating to think about the deployment of those players and how that actually having these guys who maybe aren't true elite ones, but there are maybe this 1B contract level of players and how that can actually help you maximize a truly elite receiver, even if they don't necessarily need it.

How the Eagles can do this and how the Bengals can't. The Bengals front office, I think if you showed them the way that Eagles contracts were structured, they would have them tried for witchcraft. It would be so far beyond their ability, with their brain could grasp. But that's not a shot at the Bengals. They just do things very, very differently.

You have the most innovative, cutting-edge, aggressive front office in the NFL, and you have probably the most conservative front office in the NFL, and that's probably why T. Higgins is not going to be a Bengal, and Devante Smith continues to be a member of the Eagles. All right, last one here. You can rattle these off. We don't spend a ton of time on them, but I want people just have these names in their minds as we get toward fantasy drafts and get toward the season. Who are some of those reception, perceptions, darlings that we haven't hit, but your numbers like maybe a little bit more than the general public might guess? God, please don't draft all these players in fantasy.

Let me just get that off the, but guys that I think I like just generally better than consensus, I really like Josh Downs. I think he's an awesome player. I love that receiver room in Indy, by the way. I've always been higher than consensus on Michael Pittman. I think Downs showed extremely well in his rookie season. I mean, we're talking about some insane separation stats for Josh Downs,

like just a guy that knows how to get open. I know it's kind of a singular role. I'm aware he plays in the slot. That's easier coverage. We've talked about a lot here, but man, he's a guy that just knew how to get open in his rookie season. Like I said,

I mean, unbelievable separate against man press, zone coverage, and 93rd percentile success rate versus man coverage, 82nd against zone. I think he's going to have huge role in Indianapolis and just generally really like him as a player.

I've still got the candle lit for Rashad Bateman. I know. But he, like, he's another player that I did the in-season charting on him to start the year. and it just did not look great. But by the end of the season, he really started to kind of,

I think, round into form as a separator. I don't know that he's ever going to be a superstar player, but definitely a guy that I think wins as a route runner on the outside. And they need that role. This is, again, another guy similar to James and Williams, where although the differences I think the film has been much better on Bateman when he's been healthy, like especially in his rookie season compared to Williams' his rookie season, they need him to step up.

Deonti Johnson, always been a Deonti Johnson guy, full green route tree baby last year. We'll see what he We'll see what he does in this Panthers offense. Obviously, Bryce Young, that's a question mark. But you look at Johnson last year with George Pickens sort of taking

that X receiver roll over. That allowed Deonti Johnson to move around the field a little more. I think he's primarily going to be an X in Carolina, but I also think there's going to be plays where Xavier Leggett is the X. And it's not a coincidence that all the things that people get on Deonti Johnson

about like yards per target, yards per target, yards per route run. All those numbers went up last year for Deonti Johnson, despite the fact that he played in, I think, the worst offense of his career last year, because he was able to be, we get Matt Canada out the picture, he moves around a little bit more. I just really like Dave Canales, so I'm curious to see what he can do with him. And two other guys that they'll throw out here, and you know, you can react to any of these. Rashid Jeh, I think he's going to have a, he's going to have a big role in New Orleans, and I was a fan of his film charting him back. And then Michael Wilson, just a little bit. Again, outside receipts.

who had just about 70% success rate versus man. Like I said, early on in the show, we're just generally interested in that type of player. He also was kind of used in some similar ways to Michael Pittman, early on in his career, where you think of him as this big perimeter receiver, and for the most part, he is that, but they use him on a lot of in-breaking routes.

They use them on a lot of digs and slants and stuff like that, which is kind of the Pittman route tree. And early on in Michael Wilson's season last year with the Cardinals, when Hollywood Brown was healthy, he was playing off the ball and he was doing some more of that like flanker Michael Pittman type stuff. Then when Brown goes down, they throw Michael Wilson into that role there as the ex-receiver in the offense. With Marvin Harrison coming in,

I just think he looks like a really nice number two receiver prospect for them. I'm excited about what that group could look like. And, you know, Dorch is solid enough as your slot option. Obviously what Marvin Harrison is going to be, you know, hopefully, I don't say you get better offensive line play, but it's not like they had huge upgrades there, but I just am overall bullish on the ecosystem there. And I think it's a rising tide lifts all boats sort of situation with Drew Petzing.

So I'm excited to see how that goes. The Josh Downs thing, this is going to be an internal struggle for me between now and when we kick off week one is how excited I want to be about the cults. I know there are reasons to be a little bit hesitant about this and history. And every single time I've been wrong about this fucking team should lead me to have more caution. as we get closer, but I just don't want to not be there.

I do not want to miss the bandwagon. I'm so afraid of not being as excited about them as I want to be. And then they're just all systems go as the season starts, and I've missed it. I'm going to wrestle with that every single day for the next two months. I mean, shit, man, you're telling me, number one. And, yeah, I mean, on our fantasy show on Yahoo, like, there was like a four-week stretch where everybody I brought on the show said something about Anthony Richardson.

It was just like, dude, I mean, talk about a guy you're not getting any fantasy draft discount on, but like everybody had something to say about him. And then, you know, finally, Dalton Del Don. And Dalton, the most underrated analysts in the business, does great work.

He just comes on and says, like, yeah, Anthony Richardson is my number one quarterback this year. I'm like, bro, like, what are we, you know, you're coming with this face melting take. It's just, that's going to be the hardest thing. And the worst part of it, Robert, is that, yeah, I mean, I think Richardson, you know, is an interesting prospect.

Pitman, like I said, I think a really underrated receiver Anthony A.D. Mitchell dropping him in there with Pittman and Downs is just like the exact type of player they needed. Stop. I want to stop. The worst part, the worst part about this is that if it doesn't go wrong, everybody that

it was a doubter, it's going to be either he couldn't stay healthy or he couldn't he can't accurately throw it at all three levels or whatever. And it's just going to be like, yeah, idiot, we told you that this was going to happen. So yeah, it's tough. It's tough. That, you know, by week five, we could look like real idiots, but man,

this is, it's hard not to get excited about the play call and get excited about the weapons. And then if this quarterback can hit, man, if Richardson can do it, like he's set up to succeed here. And the line's good. If the line was bad, this would be an entirely different conversation because we do this all the time where we look at the weapons and the quarterback

and say, oh man, look at this unit be and then the foundation of the house is rotting. That's not the case with them. They have a really solid group. And when it's not just the talent of the quarterback, I think too often, like the online football nerd community can get too intoxicated by these toolsy players. If the play caller didn't have the goods, this would be a different conversation, but I think

he does. So that's what makes pumping the brakes here and pulling back harder because so many boxes are checked. I record a show with Courtney Cronin today that's going to run on Thursday, and we have a similar conversation. And I just think it's going to come up over and over and over again in a couple months before the season kicks off. So I'm excited for just getting kicked in the teeth.

Again, when the cults aren't as good as we think they're going to be. Matt Harmon, thank you very, very much, my friend. Please tell the people where they can check out all of the things you're doing at, all of the places you're doing them. Yeah, all my work at Yahoo! For sure, the host a show, a Yahoo Fantasy Football show during the season. We're five days a week. I think people really enjoy that.

If you liked any of the receiver stuff, the non-fantasy stuff, reception, perception.com. We got three tiers of subscription, so there's something for everybody. if you just want the basic package, literally what it's called, you get just the profiles I've written. If you literally, our highest tier subscription, Robert, is called the sicko tier because if you want every piece of data I've charted since 2014 and any piece of data on that site that's not quarterback work, which Derek Classen does and he does great stuff, if it's a wide receiver, I'm the one that charted that data. And if you want that, you are a true sicko. So there you go. I'm trying to remember which one I have because I am a subscriber to reception and I don't know which sort of account I have.

I have everything I need. I guess that's what I'll say. But I have been a subscriber for multiple years. I am a huge supporter of what you guys do over there. Anytime you can get that sort of granularity with the data and really peel back the curtain about what makes these guys who they are on the field. That is invaluable stuff.

And that's exactly what you guys have been doing for several years. So if you do not have a reception perception, highly encourage you guys to go out and get one. Matt, thank you very much for the time. We'll do this again very soon. Thanks, buddy. Appreciate it. It was a blast.

All right, guys. That's all we got for today. Really appreciate you spending the time with us. We will be back on Tuesday with my buddy Bill Barnwell. We're looking forward to that. So please come back and check that out. If you missed Thursday's show with Courtney Cronin, we broke down which teams we think can win the Super Bowl this season. So a fun discussion about why our lists look the way that they do.

So if you miss that one, please go check that out. For now, that's all we got. I sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. This was The Athletic Football Show. Thank you.