The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - In The Pocket: Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff, the Cowboys' home/road splits, and more

Episode Date: December 21, 2023

Is the existing Trevor Lawrence narrative correct? Can the Lions win the Super Bowl with Jared Goff, if not this season then at some point in the near future? Robert Mays and Chase Daniel dig into those questions, and more, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show's In The Pocket.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Chase on Twitter: @ChaseDanielSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me for this week's edition of In the Pocket. It's a long time NFL quarterback, Chase. Daniel, Chase, how you doing, man? Good, good. Just being busy, like everyone else during the holidays.

And I feel like because I've been playing for so long and it just spent the holidays at work and worried about my wife doing everything, now it's like everything falls on me too. So it's a little bit different. We just got done with the kids, party. You know, it's just like we're going to another kid's party. We got a Christmas show going up for pressing our oldest. We got like family coming in town in two days. We're leaving. We're going to the

cotton bowl. We're going to New York. So it's just a lot of stuff going on. But it's good though. It's good. Are these kids birthday parties or kids holiday parties? Holiday parties, dude. Wait. Just just you wait, man. It's like we had a we had a holiday party for a three and a half year old. My wife was up to like midnight like because she's a room mom doing a bunch of stuff to get it there. This is school oriented. It's all school. Okay. I'm just making sure these aren't parents throwing holiday parties at their houses for their children. This is all foreign to me. So everything that goes on with what you do for small kids, I'm watching this very much from afar. I dominate as Uncle Robert, but that's where I'm most comfortable right now. It's the best thing. Like Uncle and Aunt, man, you can like hang out with the kids. You're the fun uncle. I have a niece.

But then you can give them back. Like here, here, take the kids back. You know, I don't want to have to do with anything else. So you can have fun, sugar them up, get them on a sugar hide, give them back to their parents and they don't sleep at night. But yeah, that's like, man, this time of year is just, is wild and crazy. It's just different in this sort of job. My wife is working from home these two weeks.

She's like, I got two emails today. It's like, yeah, that's how it is for most people, I think, in this stretch of the calendar. For us, not the case. We're barreling toward the most important part of our year. 15 weeks into the season, I thought that today would be a good opportunity. to zoom out a little bit and have some big picture discussions, both about the quarterbacks in the NFL at large, but also about some specific quarterbacks in the league, and maybe not even about how they played last week, but about how they're playing and maybe how they fit into their team's plans moving forward.

So I wanted to start with a pretty broad question, because you're in a unique position. You come in first year in media. This is the first time that you've watched the guys in the NFL with the eye that you're taking to it right now. I know you've watched them when you've been studying other defenses or just as a fan watching TV. But as you've taken this more intense scope into what the quarterbacks in the NFL look like, I'm curious, who is different than you expected them to be? Which guy, now that you've actually gone back and studied it, is maybe a little bit different than what your preconceived notions of them might have been coming into the season?

Yeah, that's a difficult one. I think the obvious one, at least for me, is DAC. Because when I used to watch DAC when I was a player, if he was on an offense that we were studying, or a defense that we were going up against, you don't necessarily watch the actual quarterback. You watch, okay, formationally, they're in two by two, three by one, empty. What is this defense? If we're playing Philly and we're in the Chargers and we're watching Phillies defense and he's playing against Dak because it's in one of the last four or five games. You sort of only get a feel for like, okay, cool, that's a nice pass. or yeah, that's good.

And you don't necessarily get the whole stretch of the season, right? Because when we're playing, what we're doing is we are trying to, we just break down the last four to five games. So if it's midway through the season, then you're like, you're breaking down week, like say it's week 10, you're bringing down nine, eight, seven, and six. So the first four or five games of the year, you don't even pay attention to of that team. And so when I've watched DAC in the past, I'm like, oh yeah, he's made some good throws

and it's really his offensive line that's played really well and he's given him some chances and, you know, turn the ball over last year or so forth. And so I wasn't necessarily really high on them in terms of just the ability to throw the ball.

But then I've watched them every game this week, or every game this year because not only do I think it's fascinating, I really wanted to study that offense under Mike McCarthy and how they were going to transition from Kellyn Moore, right? But especially because I do a breakdown on them almost every week on my YouTube channel. And it's magical the way he's playing. Obviously, like last week's game against Buffalo wasn't it.

And they struggle on the road versus home. But when you actually dive in. When you have one bad game, it does not negate all of the good games that you had prior to that. I know that's not how the internet works right now, but that's not how it actually goes. No. Just throwing that out there. Yeah,

and that's why when you said this, I was like, oh, it's DAC for me because like when you actually study him this year and really get into the thick of it and how he's playing in terms of like big time throw, like I always thought that DAC was just like an easy thrower, like not really making a bunch of tough throws.

He was turning the ball over a lot last year. Now, granted, a lot of those were tips and some overthrows and not necessarily on him. and tipped in a line of scrimmage or a receiver dropped it. I think half of them were last year. And then you look at this year and just how well he's been able to take care of the football. But honestly, I don't know if I've seen a better quarterback this year

throw in the middle of the field, deep down the field between two high safeties. Like it seems like every other game or every game there's two or three seam throws to C.D. Lamb or to Jake Ferguson up the middle. And it's not like this dink and dunk offense. And I don't think Kellyn Moore was a dinkered dunk office, but Kellyn pushed the ball down the field in more creative ways where I felt like there were a lot more open receivers, if that makes sense. So the throw is in my opinion.

More than in the rhythm of the offense. Yeah. And so in my opinion, it was like, yeah, he should make that throw. It's wide open, a corner route to the field. I mean, it's schemed up. This year, I'm not saying it's not schemed up. But since the Sam Fran game where they got embarrassed, like, the dude's been on a tear. And if it wasn't for the egg that he laid last week in Buffalo,

like he was my frontrunner at MVP, because what he was doing, I don't know if another quarterback within an offense could do that. And so I think it's that to me when I just really step back and look at it from all 15 games or 14 games, whatever we're at, it's been really fun to watch because, and that's the first, I'm glad you asked it, because that's the first thing as a media, I hate call myself media member, as a former player who's diving into analysis, you know, you sort of miss the boat because you don't really, you're so near-sighted when you're on the field and trying to prepare for this next opponent. We're playing the Denver Broncos. I have goggle, like tunnel vision just on the Denver Broncos. So I might watch the last four

quarterbacks of the Denver Broncos, but I don't really have an opinion because I don't need to have an opinion on the quarterbacks. They need to have opinion on their front, defensive backs, lineback, or stuff like that. So it has been cool to actually, this is what I like really enjoy to do. And it's just like watch quarterbacks and understand like how they're playing with in offenses. So I think for me it would be DAC in terms of like that answer. I think that's fair. And I think that even if he isn't going to win the MVP, the perception of DAC has certainly shifted a bit this year in what he's giving that offense. Because if you ask people, even that we're supportive of DAC and fans of Dak coming into the year.

What does Dak do best? It's a lot of pre-snap operation. It's a lot of the work he does the line of scrimmage. And he's surgical in the underneath area of the field, right? He's just, there's a precision to the way he plays the position. But that didn't always translate to pushing the ball down the field, creating explosive plays. Right now, as of today, he is tied for the league lead in big time throws, according to PFF. And stylistically, I just don't think that's ever how we talked about or considered

Dak Prescott. So I think that's a very good answer and an understandable answer. Are there any other nuances just to the way he plays the position that maybe you appreciate now that you didn't have a sense of before this year started? Yeah, I think with Dak, like, you've got to look at sort of his journey as a professional quarterback. And I just remember like his rookie year, the dude went off. Like, I remember even in preseason. Like I'm watching him like, Dak Prescott from Mississippi State. Like, who is this guy? And then all of a sudden he's just like crushing. people in the preseason and he just continues that all the way through. And so he set the bar really high for himself as a rookie quarterback on America's team. And so everything that this dude does

is going to get over scrutinized, talked about so much more. And you have to sort of, at least what I've learned on this side of the mic, you have to sort of pick through. And I have to sort of make my own opinion. And because it's like the people that are talking about DAC, most of the time, um, a lot of them just do it for clickbait, if I'm being honest. And so I don't, I used to, and I, as a player, because I didn't have time to study, I'd have certain media members on my phone and Twitter and X that I follow and that might push a narrative that I'm just like, okay, yeah, you know, I don't have time to check into it, but I believe it. Yeah, whatever. It's what's what everyone's saying, oh, Dak sucks. He's.

here. Okay. And now it's the complete opposite. And I'm not saying that people don't know what they're talking about because they do, but there are a few and far between of people who have played the game or that study it like you do or the athletic football family that really dives deep into the actual nuts and bolts and details and actual real football. I'm not saying it's not real football because I got a, I don't know if you see the comments on these YouTube that we do. I try not to. I look at every single one of them, I think they're hilarious.

And a lot of them were like, well, Chase just loves to talk about. You are a much stronger man than I am. Well, dude, that's what happens when you play football for 15 years. Like, I love to see everything about me. But I looked at our last YouTube video that we put up last week about Herbert and the Chargers or something. They were like, man, Chase really loves to say just like, he knows ball and he studies

ball and like, you know, he doesn't believe anyone else. And I'm like, dude, shut up. Like, look, I study ball. and I don't know everything at all, but being out of the game just now for 15 years and being a lot of different offenses, I feel like I have a really trained eye. And so I don't pay attention to these narratives that I hear anymore at all. Like I used to get all my NFL news on Twitter, and I still do because it's the best way, I think, for sports football as of now to talk. but I don't pay attention as much to reporters anymore because I want to do my own reporting

and not saying that they're not doing a right job, but you can have an opinion and I can have an opinion. It doesn't make mine better or yours better. It's just when you actually study DAC, especially DAC is what I'm saying. A lot of it can get lost in translation. And so I try to just base my facts on knowledge of just like here it is. Here's what it is. It's very black and white. And I try to like, like, I got a breakdown coming out tomorrow. And it's just like, okay, well, you know, it's not going to be good because it was Buffalo and he laid an egg. But like you said, one game doesn't go back in a race the whole season of greatness. You talk about narratives.

And the guy I also think probably deserves mention in this conversation. I think you and I talked about this earlier in the week. And for me, he would be one of these people. What Omar has done to shake some of the narrative surrounding him. I think he's also one of those guys that you probably. your perception of him has probably shifted this year based on what you thought he might be before you actually started studying him.

That's a great. That's a great call. And it just seems like, so the whole thing around, around Lamar, at least from my vantage point, when I was a player, it was like, yeah, he's a great quarterback.

Yeah, you want MVP, yeah. But can he throw the ball? Can he throw the ball? I'm like, what are you guys watching? Yeah, he can freaking throw the football. Like, look at his days in Louisville. He was a under center quarterback, like, pro-style offense at Louisville. So, like, what is changed?

And then, like, I do agree, like, the last couple years under Greg Roman, I think it was a smart change because they were getting a little bit too, like, tight end heavy. They never really had a receiver, true receiver that he could trust. He was run. And now it's like with Munkin, like, it's impressive. Like, it took a couple weeks, three or four weeks for that offense. to sort of start clicking on all cylinders,

which is honestly not that big of a deal in terms of like, hey, it's a brand new offense for a year. You're learning a new offense, but their receivers at the beginning year were dropping a lot of football. So I think those hidden yards

weren't like getting into stats, I guess you would say. But now, like they were like third most percentage of drop passes. Now I think they've moved on to that. But all those receivers there. Most of those that one Steelers game they managed to lose.

Yeah, yeah, which is wild. And you look and it's like, all right, Lamar is, he's doing a little bit of everything. And that's what I want my quarterback to do. I don't want him to just, hey, Lamar, drop back first read, not there, just run around, scramble and do your thing. No, like, he's doing that sometimes, but most of the time he's reading pure progression plays.

He's getting through his progressions. He's throwing these deep to intermediate dagger layered throws better than I've ever seen them do. They have this under center play action where he's got a good firm grasp on. They do still a bunch of RPO's. They still do a bunch of QB runs. Like, they are super. super multiple. And so not only from a physical standpoint, can he handle that, but from a mental aspect,

that is a lot to put on a player in a first year offense when you're quite possibly one of the better teams in the league and you're playing like it. So he deserves all the flowers, in my opinion, for that. And quite honestly, I was wishing that he'd have a MVP-type game in the Jacksonville game. Look, they won. He didn't put up MVP numbers, but I was hoping that it would like raise him up the charts to the favorite of the MVP race because he deserves, in my opinion. The counting stats just aren't going to be there. They run the ball so much. But what he has been asked to do within that offense and the flashes he has shown in virtually

every single area, it's hard not to be impressed with the way that he's played the position this year. The feel in the pocket, the sense of the pocket, how to manipulate it, how to navigate that space, the arm talent is there, the arm angles and how creative of a thrower he is. all these things that we saw in little flashes under Greg Roman over the last few years, but it never got to be the centerpiece of how we understood Lamar as a player. Now it's the foundation of how he plays the position. He still runs a lot and he still scrambles a decent amount,

but it's not the same set of responsibilities and requirements that's being placed on him. It's more, and he has more than risen to the occasion. And that's why I think that if I'm picking two guys that I think have changed the narrative around them, maybe outside of Brock Purdy, which is a whole different discussion. But two guys that had an established narrative that had been in the league for several years, we thought we understood what they were. And then you go through this season, it's hard not to look at Dak and Lamar and just see them as different sort of players than a lot of people characterize them to be before this year started. Yeah, Lamar's a good one, too.

I totally agree. I mean, you know, the Brock Purdy situation, that's a whole other, that's a whole other like segment. He played six games, right? I mean, there was the preconceived notion of him is his seven-threat. round pick dropped into a really good situation. He's played very, very well. But these guys have years of established tape and established narrative around them. And I think that they've both done a very good job of reshaping what that conversation looks like. Speaking of big picture conversations about quarterbacks, there's been a lot of chatter this week about Trevor Lawrence

and about what Trevor Lawrence has been as an NFL player and maybe how that corresponds to what sort of prospect he was supposed to be coming out of Clemson. It's another rough loss for Jacksonville on Sunday night, they turn the ball over a couple times. It's been a rough stretch for them, period. So I'm curious, as you've watched Trevor Lawrence this year, what do you see out of Trevor Lawrence? In your opinion, what type of quarterback are you watching when you watch Trevor Lawrence? Is he an elite quarterback? Is he a borderline elite quarterback? Is he just a guy? Where does he fall for you? He's between just a guy and borderline elite, the way he's been playing as of late. And I would say more borderline elite. Like I did I did a couple like top 10 power ranking

quarterback or whatever the past couple weeks. And he was always like that 10th or 11th guy that would like move up and down depending on who was hurt or who wasn't. And I'd say top third in the league. Like that's still a good assessment of him, but assessment of him. But you know, this is what I was talking about. Like this is this for me is hard to break down. And it's hard to break him down in terms of, man, like, who is he? And you just haven't seen the consistency, I think, out of him that people would like to see. Because coming out of Clemson, it's like, I remember people like, oh, man, this is the next Peyton Manning.

He's got all the tools in the toolbox. Like, can he do it? And then he went to Jacksonville, didn't really have a lot of people around him, had Urban Meyer, that failed experiment, and then brought in Doug Peterson, press Taylor. And I think he's played well as of late. But like what's interesting to me is like the first go to last year is when I started like watching him watching him more. The first like eight or nine games of last year, it just wasn't good for Jacksonville. It just wasn't a fun offense to watch.

They were learning it. They were so bad. And all of a sudden they beat, I think they beat Baltimore, right? That was the turning point. Yeah, that game against Baltimore and the comeback against Baltimore. There were several throws in that game where it's like, okay, this is all starting to click. This is all coming together. Yeah.

Okay. So good. I'm glad that was the one. And I agree with you. It started all coming together. And then they rolled off a lot straight. And then they came back from 28 down and beat us on the field. And I remember me being on that field the first half and me thinking like, okay, this is the Trevor that like I thought he was.

Because in the first half, it was bad. I think he threw three interceptions. And then by the end of the game. I was like, oh my God, like they're having to throw it every snap to get back into the football game. And I'm sitting there on the sideline like, oh, maybe my misconception, maybe there's a little bit misconception there. Like it was like, okay, like this dude is legit and they end up winning a playoff game. And then like the start of this year, they're rolling. And all of a sudden now it's like, hey, he's hurt.

You go to Cleveland throw three interceptions. You got a couple more turnovers. It's just the inconsistent, like nature of the. his play that I feel like is holding him back a little bit from really making that step from borderline elite to like one of the best eight to seven guys in the game. I expect when I went, I turned down the Ravens game yesterday. And I expected to face a reality where, you know what, maybe this guy just isn't as good as I thought he was. And it was just going to be a letdown watching that game. I turned down the game and I watched every single play.

I come away from that game with him playing at a high ankle sprain, by the way. And I feel no differently about him. He had those two fumbles and they were rough plays. Those are hugely impactful plays. And that is something we can talk about because the turnovers, in my opinion, are one of the biggest things that is currently holding him back. It's those one or two just bonehead plays in high leverage situations. I tweeted about this last night.

The sequence on his first fumble. The Jags have the ball inside the 25-yard line. They have a negative run on first down. The Jaguars have a negative run percentage on first down of 26% this year. It is the highest rate in the NFL. They have more negative runs on first down than any team in football, and they are one of the run-heavyest teams on first down. We'll talk about all the circumstances here in a second.

Anyway, it's second and 12. Pre-snap penalty, second-in-17. They've had a lot of those recently. On second-in-17, he, with anticipation, throws a second-in-one. outbreaker to Parker Washington that hits him in the hands and he drops it. Third and 17, just drops it. The Jaguars have lost the second highest amount of EPA in the NFL on drops this year. Only the Chiefs have been worse than them, and it is close. They are in their own zip code together. So all of the oxygen we have spilled talking about the Chiefs issues in that

area, the Jags have been just as bad. On 3rd and 17, he tries to scramble and make a play after that drop and he fumbles. That is the Jacksonville Jaguar season in a nutshell. That is their issues in what they've been having. But I went back and watched every single play in that game. He had more big-time throws this week than any quarterback in the NFL. And you go back and you watch some of those throws, the one to Zay Jones down the sideline, the one to Calvin Ridley in the back corner of the end zone that he didn't end up

catching. The guy is capable of some really high-level plays. So when I went back and through all this and I looked at some of the numbers surrounding it, question is, okay, is he the eighth to tenth best quarterback in the league, eighth, ninth best quarterback in the league right now? I think you can make an argument that he is. He is eighth in QBR, he's eighth in total EPA according to ESPN, he's right in that

range. If he has Matt Ryan's career, if he's the sixth to eighth best quarterback in the league for a decade, goes to a bunch of Pro Bowls, gets one MVP award independent of team success, just the quality and production of the quarterback. Is that a disappointment, even if he was the number one overall pick? No, not at all. I don't think so either.

Not even close. Like, you're talking, like Matt Ryan's career, I would, yeah, anyone would sign up for that dude. Absolutely, because he gives, he, toward the end of his career, like Matt Ryan was given Atlanta like four or five, like legitimate contender years, like in a row, putting up massive passing stats.

And I would, yeah, I mean, yeah, yes. And do you think that's reasonable? Do you think that right now, when you watch him play, he can have a Matt Ryan sort of career? It's so much, it's so much of it is based, so much of it's based on fit in scheme and who they have around him. Do they have a defense?

But it's just like, I mean, I think it's reasonable to say because I think what Doug Peterson's done there has really been, built the culture to last, to be successful. I don't view them, and no one views them around the league anymore as the same old Jacksonville Jaguars, like that they were forever and just couldn't win. I mean, even, and I say that, but even like they got to the EFC championship game with Blake Bortles, like, so they can win, you know what I mean? And it's just, it's an interesting take because I feel like because they are in Jacksonville,

they don't get a lot of prime time games and they just don't, it just, I don't know, it's a weird situation to be playing in Jacksonville, but I do like what they're doing around him, the GM, the head coach, they have a plethora of weapons

and it just seems to me like when I saw all these stats on the rundown, I was like, they gotta get better. Like, stop running the ball in first down. Like, you know, their run game is a disaster. Their run game and what their run game looks like right now is a disaster.

So they have lost more EPA on run plays than all but two teams in the NFL. They're 30th in the amount of negative value that's come from their runs. We talk about the negative rushes. That's another issue. They're 30th in the EPA. They've lost on fumbles. They are 32nd in the EPA lost on wide receiver and tight end screens that they've run this year.

And they've run a ton of them. This stat was mind-blowing to me. If you take out wide receiver and tight-end screens, the jags are 10th in passing success rate. They are a top 10 passing offense and passing success rate. If you include wide receiver and tight end screens, they drop to 16th. So they go from top 10th. Come on. The reason they're running the screens is because they're trying to supplement a run game that isn't working.

So all these things are starting to compound and cause these issues. So I think this is going to be about season ends. You take a step back. What do we need? My answer, my number one answer is offensive line talent. they need to go out and they need to draft interior offensive linemen and beef that up and maybe make some sort of change at what the structure of your run game looks like. Because right now, that is broken. Whatever you're trotting out there, whether it's the talent or the guys that are constructing the run game,

they need to take some really hard looks at what that looks like. And if you start building some of the stuff around him into just the league average stuff, stuff that's not sabotaging you before this even gets started, I think that we're going to, going to potentially look at him as a different sort of quarterback. I think right now he's probably in that Matt Ryan range in terms of where you fit in the hierarchy. Matt Ryan was often like the sixth to eighth best quarterback in the league. If that's the case right now, if Trevor Lawrence is the eighth best quarterback in the NFL,

which I think you can make a solid argument that he is, he's 24 years old. He's 24 years old. The guy is in his second season in this offense after his third season, technically, second season with this group after the Urban Meyer year. I just think it's way. too early to start making these declarations. Just because he's not Peyton Manning doesn't mean that it's a failure. Because how many number one overall picks have never developed into decent quarterbacks,

let alone a Matt Ryan S quarterback that can put you in a position to win for a decade straight? So I, seriously, when I turned on that game, I was very ready to be like, man, maybe he just isn't it. And after I was done watching, I was like, nah, that guy still has so much. especially against that defense. It makes it even better. It makes it even better when he's doing it against the defense like that. And like you,

I mean, everyone knows, but like the quarter ex best friends a run game. Like I don't care who you are. Like even Peyton and, in Indy or Peyton and Diver, like they had such a good run game

where they didn't have to shoulder every single, hey, all right. And it doesn't seem like a lot. But when you are trying to supplement these receiver and tight-in screens, which EPA lost their 30-second, they're worse than the league on this.

Because you can't get the run game going. Like even that puts a little bit of pressure on the quarterback because you still got to be able to throw it as accurately as possible. I was worried about getting tips, like all this stuff. It's not like some play off on a quarterback's mind if you throw a receiver in tight end end screen because a lot of these are two by two. You're reading one guy and then going back to the other. So it's a lot of work on Trevor to have to work every single snap.

We talk a little bit a couple of shows ago about like, hey, just can I get a breather for the quarterback? Like I don't want to mic anything on. I don't want to have to throw a receiver. Like I just want to hand it off and bootleg out. or just like running it like stuff like that. So don't take that out of the context either because that that does at the end of the day, like when you're just constantly having to think and do and it just, it gets old after a while.

One of the other numbers I kept going back to is that they have 267 dropbacks this year in 2.2 seconds or less, which is second most in the NFL only the Bengals have more. And that also to me feels like a product of a lack of faith in your offensive line and a lack of faith in your protection. So I think that these issues that they're having up front are causing these cascading effects across the entire offense. And when they do let him push the ball down the field, when they've used under center play action this year, they've had an explosive pass on 40% of their dropbacks. That is the highest rate in the NFL. So there are so many little nuggets when you watch his play and when you watch the offense overall where you think,

okay, one more offseason, go get a blocking tight end, draft a guard or an interior offensive lineman in the first two rounds, go get one more outside receiver. I'm okay with the Zay Jones experience being over. You can do that in the draft. You can do that in free agency theoretically with who's available. They had a couple more pieces to that offense, and they do have some resources this off season. They could have some potential financial flexibility.

They didn't have this spring. I really do think that there is a much, much better version of this offense out there. They are seventh in passing DVOA, even with all of those numbers I just threw out there. Like, I just feel like we're getting, we're going, being way too quick in how we're characterizing this 24-year-old guy that has played in an offense that shot itself in the foot over and over and over again. And I think that we should show a little caution in making any grand proclamations about what this guy is. Yeah, and I think, I'm glad you brought up the, uh, the deep passing because the first two years of his career, really two and a half years of his career. of his career.

Trevor Lawrence was just not a very good deep thrower. And you could tell, and I can tell, based on film, that he really took that to heart in terms of, like, getting to work at it in the off season, going more under center. You know, you're so used to being in gun, especially with the Clemson offense that he was, like getting his footwork right,

getting his arm angle right, getting his, like, his shoulders lined up directly at the target, making sure that his eyes coming off a fake or looking at the exact right thing at the exact right time. really coached well. And he's shown so much improvement over that. Like his deep ball actually, I think is like 48% of balls over like 15 to 18 yards in the air are complete. Like I don't know the stat on that, but I know it's like way up there. Because I had NFL network. We talked about

this game on last Friday when we were on. I said, hey, give me these stats. And that was my biggest key to the game for Trevor Lawrence was these deep throws against Baltimore Ravens defense because they had to get had to get some yards. And he hit one down the sideline for a touchdown. And it's just like, those are impressive to me because if you can, I feel like if you can shoot like 20 to 25 to 30% on deep ball accuracy, it's a good year.

My guy is doing 48% over like 1,800 yards passing. And I think he's throwing like eight touchdowns, four interceptions. But you look at those numbers from the past two years, they are completely different. And it's just, It's a brand new Trevor in terms of he used to not really want to throw the ball down the field. He used to go through his reads and check down. And that had a lot to do with not having a lot of time.

So now what I see is he's getting back on his drop a little bit quicker. He's finding his read a lot faster. Instead of doing full field dropback play action reads, they've moved it more to half field reads so they happen faster. So he doesn't have to worry about what's on the other side of the field. And it's really worked for them. I'm glad you brought that up. Yeah, I love watching him in those situations. One of the problems, though, is that their run game is almost completely shotgun-based.

So there is a disconnect between their run game and their play action game. So I think that all of these things are just structural considerations to think about this offseason. Two more things worth bringing up about Trevor Lawrence. One, he has been hurt a good chunk of this year. And he has played hurt a good chunk of this year. And if you're on the field, you're healthy enough to play. You should be judged for the product that you're putting on the field.

But I still think it's important to think about what some of that next. bagging stuff has looked like, and the fact that he's still played pretty well outside of the circumstances, even while hurt. The last thing, this is something that even if you're trying to defend him, which I have no reason to do, by the way, I just want to make this clear. I have no reason to think that this guy is good or want him to succeed. There's no priors involved with this because you don't get credit for thinking Trevor Lawrence was going to be good.

I truly don't care how this turns out. This is just what I see when I watch him. Anyway, the other part of this that there is no defending him on, he cannot keep playing hero ball in these situations and turning the ball over. Just slide. Just go down. Just live to play another play. And just little tiny kind of brain farts like that with either ball security or that play at the end of the half, where you just cannot throw that ball short of the end zone. That is a fade or it is nothing.

Just chuck that thing out of bounds. You cannot have the play end on that. but the half I'm done that. But again, he's 24. He's in his second season as a starter with a competent coaching staff. And already he's on the fringe of being like a top eight to 10 quarterback. So I just think that there's a lot of context and a lot of different considerations when we're trying to frame who this guy is and eventually who he can be. Yeah, I think it's all good.

And that's the biggest thing for me when I'm talking about the inconsistencies is like those four drives they had inside the 30 and no points. against a good team. It would have been a completely different game. Not all of it's on Trevor, but a lot of it is. So you just eliminate those, like you were saying, he's still young, 24, which I didn't even know that. That's wild. It seems like he's been in the league a lot longer than his third year. He's only 24. And they do, the pieces they have around him are fine. You know, it's not malpractice. They've missed Christian Kirk for sure. He's hugely important as an explosive part of that offense. But they absolutely need better personnel up front. think they know that.

It's just on the interior of the offensive line. They've had to cycle through injuries there. Now they have Walker Little's playing left tackle with Cam Robinson getting hurt. They have a rookie right tackle who should be a little bit better. So I think those considerations are important. And I do think that they could pump some more resources into receiver this offseason. If you wanted to spend a first round pick on an outside receiver, Calvin, is a free agent.

Zay Jones, they can move on from him if they want to. I think that is a reasonable consideration when you're trying to think about how can we take this thing to the next level. So it's going to be a fascinating off season. But again, going back and watching that game, my takeaways and my feelings were much different than I anticipated them being going into it. Yeah. Yeah. Me too. Me too. Another storyline, narrative talking point that's come up a lot this week is what's going on with the Cowboys offense at home versus playing on the road. And there is a gap. Okay, so the Cowboys right now are fifth and offensive success rate at home this year. They are 11th on the road.

DAC is second in EPA per dropback at home this season. It's 10th on the road. To get some context about what that gap looks like, DAC at home is essentially the Niners offense this year. DAC on the road is wedged between Gino Smith and Baker Mayfield in EPA per dropback. It's not terrible, but it's definitely a far cry from what that offense has been doing at its best. So I wanted to ask you, is this real and why would this be real? Are there actual tangible reasons for why an offense would not be able to operate the same way on the road that they could at home?

Okay, it definitely is real. Like, let's just start there. But what's not super real is I can't believe these, especially these DAC Prescott numbers home and away. That, to me, is not normal. So there's something else going on there, which we can get into. but it's hard to put a, like, it's hard to put a thumb on it. Like, I have no idea because I'm not in the meetings. But in terms of like an offense going on the road, right?

I always enjoyed, especially in college when we were on offense, like going on the road to play in hostile, crazy, loud environments, because I thought there was nothing better. And even in the NFL when I played and threw a few touchdowns on the road and in some places that places are so loud when the opposite, when the visiting team's offense is on the field, nonstop loud. And so when you score a touchdown or when you throw a touchdown, like the entire crowd just goes silent. Like it is dead, silent. The second a, the second an opposing team scores a touchdown. And I thought that was like the coolest thing in the world because it's like, man, yeah, we shut the crowd up. Like what's up? Like, yeah, stuff like that.

And we did it a lot in college at Missouri. Like we were throwing like people. Like we'd be Nebraska at home at their place like 56 to 7. And it was awesome. And I think the biggest thing for playing on the road is what I always enjoyed is there's very little communication. Because it's just hard to hear, especially in an NFL offense. Okay. Like Buffalo is wild.

Like their stadium, okay, it doesn't hold a lot of people, but it's open air. And those fans are like college fans in terms of they're just loud all the time. So extremely drunk. Extremely drunk. Jumping on tables. Take it a night game. Take that notch up a couple more levels because they have all day to drink. So many Moulson's that you can drink.

So many Labat Blues you can put down between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. Yes. Yes. And so for me as an offense, the first thing that I think of is communication, right? And where does that communication start? Well, it starts on the sideline before you even go out there in terms of like, hey, if the coach is trying to give you a tip or this, it's just like you have to be extra locked in to the actual, like almost like the lips of the person. Okay. And then and then it starts when the quarterback hops onto the field. And then you see all the time, you know, there's earpieces in the helmet. You see all the time that quarterbacks, even with earpieces, are holding the little hands over their ears to make sure that they can hear the play caller call it in. And so I think that to me is like another level of like you got to make sure that you are just completely focused on the task at hand.

So you can actually hear it. And then the biggest thing to me is once you're in the huddle, the huddle is a lot tighter on the road than it is at home. And I've heard people tell me before, like, the quarterback is screaming as loud as they possibly can. He has to take his mouthpiece out. Like, there's just all sorts of different angles of it. And I've heard, and I've been a part of huddles where they're like, I never really heard what you said, but I can lip read enough to understand. And you have to be very demonstrative.

And like, these are all situations, but like, especially like if you're backed up or if you're in a third down situation, or if you're in the red zone. So all that takes place even before the snap. And then you're on the snap. And if you need to make an adjustment at the line of scrimmage, if you're a quarterback, you're having to go through and talk to every offensive linemen. Hand signals have to be tight.

You got to make sure that these, you know, you don't jump off sides. You got to make sure on silent count. Okay, is it silent one? Is it silent two? Are we doing a head bob on the silent three? There's so many factors that go into just getting one. single playoff and so much energy burnt on just the outside influence of not even the play at hand.

And then the play at hand, it's a two-yard run. You're like, well, I got to do it all over again. It's second and eight. Let's do it all over again. So I think the amount of focus that you have to have is extremely important, especially on the road. And when you're at home, it's like, all right, you're just cadence. You can talk easy, everything like that because the crowds, like not loud. So I think that's just a portion of it. For them specifically, the amount of work he does at the line of scrimmage, do you feel like it's more of a hindrance to their offense to operate in those circumstances that it might be with an offense that doesn't have as many checks and doesn't require as much work and communication when you're in those situations?

I think it's definitely a little bit more of a hindrance for sure. But like you're not going to change, you're not going to change your offense, right? And that's, that's just, it's so weird to me because we never really. had on teams that we've played on, there's never really been anyone that's like, I don't know, it's hard to point a finger on like, well, why aren't you good on the road? And it's just got to be a lack of communication, I guess. It's just like you can't hear everything's loud. But at the end of the day, if you put a good game plan together and you're going against teams that you should be, there's no reason you shouldn't have a good showing. So that's a really weird subject to talk about because in my 14 or 15 years in meetings for games that we've had on the road, we've never really talked about, oh, hey, our mechanics need to be better.

Or this is just like, hey, we didn't execute the plays. Like, just bottom line, that's not what it is. But clearly there's something with Dallas on the road. Is there anything that would lead you to motion less? Because looking at a couple different sources, their motion rate falls on the road. It's like five to seven percentage points depending on the source that you're looking at. Is there anything mechanically within an offense that would not allow you to have as much pre-snap movement when you're on the road versus at home? I wouldn't think the Dallas offense.

I would go more like if I'm on the road and I'm Miami's offense because of how much jet sweep motion they do. So you're not able to call it out. So normally when I say jet sweet motion, so there's a couple different motions. There's a tight in, get off, motion on and get on. It's like a reset motion, right? or like a receiver motion from two by two to three by one, you're over there getting set, cool. And then this jet sweet motion, which the Cowboys don't do a lot. They do it with Turpin some, but I really look like, look at Miami.

It's like these jet sweet motions where you're getting guys on the run, you're having a certain snap point. Say it's a receiver coming from right to left, and you want to snap it before the ball. So before he crosses the ball, you want to snap it in the B gap. There's such thing as called like silent quick. cadence is what we used in the chargers. And so instead of saying, ready, blue, ready, blise out, where you have to time it up and it's just for show and your jet sweeping or you're running a naked off of them and you just want them to continue on the motion.

Now it's like the center has to look between his legs and I have to time it up. As soon as my leg comes up, the center snaps it so it's perfectly, it's just a lot harder to do that on the road in silent. It takes a lot more practice for something that maybe not, maybe doesn't give you like a whole bunch of it. It's just like window dressing, if that makes sense. They do have some quick motions at the snap. So there is a chance that they don't feel as comfortable doing some of that. And one of the reasons that the offense felt more dynamic since the buy is that there was a little bit more movement and they were doing stuff to create

separation for guys coming off the line of scrimmage. So I think there might be something to that. And I'll be curious to watch their next couple games on the road and maybe compare that to some of the stuff they've done at home and see structurally what looks different and what looks similar about that offense. Yeah, because even in Dallas, like in teams that I've played that are played in Dallas's stadium, it's not like it's a hard stadium to play it. So it's not like it's super loud. Yeah, and it's a wine and cheese crowd for the most part.

Like just like once to go drink their wine, B.C., getting the sweet game, stuff like that. So they're not really, so the fact that they're good at home is awesome. But yeah, it's going to be something interesting to watch for sure. One last guy we wanted to hit before we got out of here today. A quarterback and an offense, we haven't talked about in this show at all, but they played great and he played great on Saturday. And that is Jared Goff and what the Lions are doing. The Lions have been, yet again, for the second straight year, a top 10 offense by

virtually any single metric you look at. There's six in offensive DVOA. There's six in EPA per play. Jared Goff, when he got traded to Detroit, was left for dead. He was considered a throw in in that deal with a bloated contract. And a lot of people just dismissed him in the immediate aftermath. math of that. And I think that I'm guilty of that to a certain extent. I think that was kind of the conventional wisdom about it. And he has responded by playing some very good football over the last

couple years, especially within the confines of that offense. In your mind, can the Lions win the Super Bowl with Jared Gough? And maybe not this year, but moving forward. Because at a certain point here, there's going to have to be a decision made about Jared Gough and how he fits into the long-term plans of that franchise. And I'm wondering how you see him as part of that equation. Yeah, I mean, I, yeah, I think, I think that he absolutely can win a Super Bowl with the Detroit Lions. Like, I think he's, I think he's got enough to him. I think he's got enough stuff to him. I think that they've surrounded him with the right offensive scheme. Now, now this, this is sort of a tricky question. And we talked about it before. It's like, does Ben Johnson stay probably not? Now, what's he going to do

under a new offensive coordinator because him and Ben Johnson have been clicking, man. So I think that's a huge, like, factor that we can't really answer. Like, is Ben Johnson going to get a job? Probably. But if he doesn't, then, yeah, they can win a Super Bowl. But no, I think that within the right scheme, and honestly, golf's taking a L.A. team to Super Bowl, like, I think that he can do it again. And I think that.

But that's the, to me, that's what's the fascinating consideration, okay? The Rams make that move, whether fair or unfair in the way that they kind of cast Gough aside, they made that move because they, it was, he was done. Sean McVeigh was done with Jared Gough, but they made that move because in their minds, they needed a quarterback who could give them more outside of the structure of what the offense provided. And I think even if you're encouraged and excited about what that offensive structure has looked like in Detroit, it feels like we're going to arrive at a similar

or conversation. Because Ben Johnson's going to get stripped away. Some of these offensive skill position players are going to get more expensive. Amon Ross St. Brown is going to be up for a contract extension this off season. Penny Sewell is going to be up for a contract extension this off season. Jared Goff has been totally reasonable in terms of what he's costs the Lions. If you look at that contract over the last four years, it's essentially been four years, 100 million on average.

25 million a year for the quarterback play he's given them with a young cheap team and Ben Johnson, you can live with that. They've been really good in those circumstances. but if you take away some of the pieces of that, it's harder to succeed because what he needs is he needs everything to be pristine around him. And I don't even mean that as a dig at Jared Goff, when things are great around him, he can rip that shit, man, but he doesn't scramble. He doesn't make off-schedule plays. He is dead last in the amount of value he's created as a scrambler this year among all NFL quarterbacks. He is 30th in the amount of EPA he has created outside of the

pocket. He is what he is. And so if you chip away at the house that you can build for him, what does he end up looking like? And I think that has to be the question that the lions ask themselves moving forward. I don't know the answer because I totally understand the lion's landing in a spot where they say, we can win with this guy. We know what he is. We like his presence in the building. We can win with this guy. I just wonder how dangerous that is when he's going to be asking for the Daniel Jones contract in six months. Yeah. And I think he'll get it. I think he'll get it. And I think honestly, this comes down to who is, so your beauty's in the eye of the beholder, right? And the beholder right here is Brad Holmes. Brad Holmes loves him some Jared

golf. So he's got that going for him. And if he can find a creative play caller that'll come in and pretty much just run the exact same scheme as Ben Johnson, or maybe they, they, you know, elevate somebody who's in the building. I just think the pieces around golf and the coaching staff from Dan Campbell, Mark Brunel, I think, has done like a really good job that doesn't get talked about enough. And just the former players that Dan's brought in and just sort of stuck to his guns. Their offense is clearly very well coached. It's a lot of really impressive detail in what that offense looks like. Yeah.

And I think that as long as he's in a dome for 10 games out of the year, then you're good. Like, you know, it's like the best of both worlds. You're in a dome. You got Brad Holmes as your GM. You know, they're going to pay Amon Ross, St. Brown. and I think that they're headed in the right direction. And I mean, there were so many other chances that they could have drafted or gone away from them and said, hey, but from the second that Goff got on that building, man, Brad Holmes, like, credit to him, he was just like, this is our guy. Like, this wasn't just some throw in.

We want Jared Goff. I believe in Jared Goff. And he's made me a believer because he's playing pretty damn good ball right now. I always am weary of what it looks like for your franchise when you commit yourself to a quarterback who doesn't rise above his circumstances and you pay that guy. And again, I don't mean that as a dig. There are certain quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff. I love watching them play when the circumstances are good, but you need to build something beautiful around them. So what does that look like moving forward?

I understand the Lions wanting to commit to that. And if they do end up giving him that Daniel Jones contract this off season, I understand why they would. Where you have Jared Gough and is a known commodity, he's given you what he's given you. You drafted Hended Hooker's kind of a developmental. Maybe this could work out if we have to move off from Jared Gough eventually. It's another dice roll. I understand the set of bets that they have made. I just think that after this season, and if Ben Johnson leaves and if some of these guys start to get a little bit more expensive,

It's going to be a really similar conversation to the one we had about golf in Los Angeles, except Sean McBay was still there. So do you think that if Ben Johnson gets a job, which all, I mean, it'd be crazy if he's not because I feel like there's going to be nine to ten openings. He'll get one if he wants one. Yeah, if he wants one, right? And they pay their guys that they're, do you think that golf will have. as good of a year. If they have similar play structure around him, if Ben Johnson's not the guy,

calling the plays. Do you think he would have, and golf will have a good year? And do you pay golf that money, that Daniel Jones contract? I think I probably would if I were the lines. I think I probably would. Based on what he's given you,

based on, it's a safe bet in that the floor is theoretically sort of high, but it's a risky bet because committing those sorts of resources and not even just the resources. It's the opportunity cost. It's the multiple years, potentially, of your franchise and the young years and some of the cheap years of these surrounding pieces that you have that you're spending on Jared Gough instead of developing another quarterback.

So I do think that there is some certainty to it, but I also don't think it comes without risk. So I would do it because, based on some of the intangible aspects of it, what he is in the building, what he's been to the franchise, all of those things and just the stabilizing force that he's been. But I definitely think that there's a lot of risk involved in committing that deal to him moving forward, especially when you remove the Ben Johnson piece from all of this that to me feels like a very important piece. It's just like I sort of maybe it's just the recency bias of me and of the Lions, but like they're finally good again, man. And it's so fun to watch.

It's hard to let go that. It's like, it's like, it's like, it's so hard to let go. And with evaluating quarterback such a crapshoot, let's say they go. And it's like, and draft a quarterback in the first round that doesn't pan out, you've set your franchise back four or five more years and then you go back to free agency. So I think that's what a lot of these GM types are doing. Like they're going with the safe bet to know that we can win with Jared golf. And that's okay that if they don't play with outside of the scheme, like we know what we're getting. And right now you're getting a top 12 or 13 quarterback in the league that's playing the way he's been playing. Like maybe a top 10. And so I think that to me is why I say it's a safe bet

because you just don't know what you're getting. Like you don't, if you're not keeping Jared golf, you're not going to go and get another veteran free agent, right? It's golf or you're starting over with a rookie. And so I just, I just don't like unless he's like a, you're drafting in the top three, a guy that's a franchise guy. I just hate starting all over again with how far they've come and how long they've been bad and all this stuff. And the Lions have never had a rookie quarterback since Matthew Stafford. It's been like 20 years since. So it's just like all that plays into my mindset on it. I get it. And I totally understand every bit of that argument. And I don't think that they would move off from this off season. He's got one year left on his contract. It would be

about whether you'd extend him or you'd be willing to go into that lame duck year next year. I've been talking about this and kind of trotting it out with people over the last week or so. And I almost hesitate to even bring this up, but I think it's a worthwhile question as we consider this. Do you think it's harder to build an elite infrastructure where the 10th best quarterback in the league could potentially win you a Super Bowl? Or do you think it's harder to find an elite quarterback? Oh my God. It's harder to find an elite quarterback. I think that that's true, too. So these teams that are held bent, I think that's how I feel too. And so these teams that say, okay, we know what this guy can do when we put the right pieces around him.

Let's make that bet. The Miami Dolphins are going to be set to make that exact same bet and have this exact same conversation this offseason about Tua. He's going to get paid more than Jared Gough probably because of how young he is and because of the production. But those sorts of bets where you say, listen, we know that we can be a great offense, truly, like an elite offense with this guy if we put the right pieces around him, let's bet on the pieces.

I understand making that. I understand landing on that conclusion, even if I think there's also dangers in thinking that way. Yeah, it's a good way to put it. Really good way. I agree. Golf all the way, baby. Let's go.

Listen, I've said this multiple times this year. Saturday was another example of this. I love watching him play in this offense. He is what he is. He's fun. He is what he is. When I looked up that scramble number and I saw that he had just the few his scrambles in the NFL this year,

of course you know it's true. But when you see it all, It's just like, see it on paper. You just, and it was, I went back and I started watching the Broncos game before we're going to have this conversation.

I was like, I'm going to watch the whole game. I'm going to have all these notes and be like, okay, what did I learn about Jared Goff in this game? I watched three drives and I was like, what am I doing? I know exactly what he is. And you know exactly what he is. And that comes with drawbacks,

but it also comes with benefits. And I think that that push in the poll is what the lions are going to have to consider as they go about this. And I say that, I'm pretty confident they're going to commit to him moving forward. This is more of a thought exercise than it is a projection about what the Lions are going to do. All right, guys, that is all we've got for this week. As always, sincerely appreciate you all listening.

Please check out everything else we got on the channel. Prospects of Prospects with Dane and Nate, football GM with Mike and Randy coming out on Saturdays. Great episode of Kiefer in the Beats this week. Chats with Jordan Roder, Daniel Popper, about what's going on with Brandon Staley, how that all kind of fell apart in Los Angeles. Highly encourage you guys to go check that out. For now, that is all we've got. Appreciate you all listening.

Talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.