The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 'Is this anything?' Workshopping our half-baked takes for the 2023 NFL season with David Helman

Episode Date: July 28, 2023

Speculation is a big part of the fun of following the NFL, especially during training camp. That's the spirit of today's episode of The Athletic Football Show, where Robert Mays and David Helman of Fox Sports trot out a bunch of half-baked (albeit thoughtful!) takes and ask, 'Is this anything?'Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow David on Twitter: @davidhelman_Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThis episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/MAYS and get on your way to being your best self.The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hey everyone, Michael Bellar, executive producer of the athletic football show here with a quick note for you all before we get going. Today's episode was recorded before the injuries to Joe Burrow and Jalen Ramsey. In case you haven't heard, most likely you all have, but just in case you haven't, Joe Burrow suffered a calf injury in practice on Thursday. Sounds like the Bengals caught a bit of a break here. Burrow has a calf strain, according to multiple reports. There's no timetable for his return just yet, but it appears as though he won't miss much, if any time in the regular season. Unfortunately, the news is worse for Ramsey and the Dolphins. The Star Corner was carted off the practice field on Thursday because of a knee injury

and will undergo meniscus surgery. Multiple reports indicate he will get a full repair of the meniscus and that would keep him out until December. Again, today's episode was recorded before either injury happened, so please keep that in mind when the guys are discussing the bangles and dolphins. Thanks and enjoy. This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert May is joining me today.

It's our good friend from Fox Sports. It's David Helman. David, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing wonderful, Robert. It's a thrill to be back with you, man. Thanks for having me. I always love chatting about this stuff with you. And I wanted to have you on today because we're going to trot out something that I think is pretty fun at this stage of the calendar.

This is a time of year where we're doing some prognosticating, some thinking, some looking forward to the season. And I want us to workshop some of our lukewarm takes that we have for this show. year. Stuff that maybe we don't really all the way believe, but there's a kernel of something there. What we're tentatively calling this on the show this year is, is this anything? Where we're going to trot this stuff out and see if it works. We're just going to try it on a little bit. So this is going to be a full show of, is this anything? We're going to do our, you know, our favorite four or five half-baked workshop takes heading into the 2023 NFL season, which, you know, you're a master of sports television now. You're plenty used to this. in ways that I'm not.

When you told me this is what you wanted to do, I got really excited because, yeah, I mean, that's kind of the name of the game is like you've got to come up with interesting, informed opinions that like get people, you know, that make people want to listen to you. And so I'd say since,

since the draft ended, I have spent way too much of my free time trying to formulate ideas and like, is this, am I stupid if I say this? on TV. Am I stupid if I say this on a podcast? So when you told me you wanted to workshop some stuff, I was like, absolutely, because I can just throw a bunch of shit at the wall. And if it doesn't turn out, I'd just say, then we were workshopping it. It's the perfect excuse for this type of stuff. That's exactly right. And that is why we're framing it this way. Before we dig into these,

though, this is where I wanted to start. USA Today, Jared Bell at USA Today, put out a story with Sean Payton this morning that I cannot believe is real. Some of the quotes, in this piece from Sean Payton about last year in Denver are crazy. I want to read a couple of them out loud before we actually start digging into it and talking about it. It doesn't happen often where an NFL team organization gets embarrassed. And that happened here. Part of it was their own fault relative to spending so much fucking time, I assume he said,

trying to win the off season, the PR, the pompant circumstance, marching people around all that stuff. We're not doing any of that. The Jets did that this year. watch hard knocks all of it, I can see it coming. Okay. Oh man, Peyton began. There's so much dirt around that in reference to Russell Wilson from last year. There's 20 hands for what was allowed, tolerated in the freaking training rooms, the meeting room, the offense. I don't know hack it. A lot of people had dirt on their hands. It wasn't just Russell. That wasn't his fault,

Peyton said of Wilson. That was the parents who allowed it. It's not an incrimination on him, but an incrimination on the head coach, the GM, the president, and everybody else who watched it happen. The last one here, it might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That's how bad it was. I don't even know what to make of this, because I can't remember a head coach coming out and saying this much inflammatory shit on the eve of the season in as long as I've covered the league. you think that Robert Zala, Joe Douglas, and Nathaniel Hackett have maybe exchanged some words

about this article in the last couple hours. The irony of talking about how you should just be quiet and do your work and then flaming another organization, another head coach, the GM you currently work with, and a bunch of other people, I just don't know what the motivation is here. Okay.

And for the record, neither do I. But I always think this. We can't pile on coaches and players for giving us stock answers and never wanting to say anything interesting and then be upset when they give us gold because that's what this is. It's amazing. Thank you, Jared Bell from USA Today for, you know, he's a veteran reporter in this game. He's been doing this a long time. Like, whatever you did to get Sean Payton to let his guard down, kudos to you, my friend. because this was the type of stuff that can fuel a news cycle for a week, probably.

I don't know if this is, I make $25 million a year now, and this is a heat check that I can take. I don't know if this is, I'm trying to galvanize the locker room and I'm trying to show how much support I have in Russell Wilson. I don't know what the thought process is behind this, but I don't have an issue with it, by the way. I'm totally fine with it. I love this shit. Let it rip, which he absolutely did. I just can't believe it happened in these terms. You know what stood out to me when I read the story?

And I think we had similar mornings where like we, you know, rolled over and grabbed our phones and saw this getting retweeted. And like before you're even out of bed, you're like, oh, wow, all right. I know what the NFL is going to be talking about today. But he had a line in there. I've got the story pulled up right here. He had a line in there where he like laughed at his own quote and realized he. And Jerobel said, you know, he realized he was echoing. Bill Parcells.

And having, you know, I don't know Sean Payton super well, but I worked for the Cowboys where Bill Parcells mentored Sean Payton way back in the day. And like, the effect that Bill Parcells has on like everybody he touches, whether it's media, coaches, players, like anybody who worked under him for a substantial amount of time has a moment

like this. And yeah, I think it's, it very much reminds me of how Bill Parcells spent the latter part of his career parachuting into a team that needed to win like the Cowboys and being like, no, we're fixing this. This is how winning organizations work and I know how to win. And obviously, Sean Payton hasn't been a coach anywhere near as many places as Bill Parcells, but he knows about winning and he knows about longevity in the NFL. So, I mean, if anybody's got the skins on the wall to talk like that, other than Bill Velichick and Andy Reid, I guess.

I mean, right after those two, I think you'd have to go to Sean Payton. So I don't know if I would have done it, but I certainly think he's got the resume to back it up. You talk about choosing violence. Sean Payton definitely shows violence that day that he talked to Jared Bell. So a fascinating start to the day two of NFL training camps, Sean Payton coming out and saying that shit. One more bit of NFL news I wanted to hit before we dig into this. Speaking of the Jets, Aaron Rogers reworked his contract. signed a new two-year $75 million deal with the Jets.

In one last, just fuck you to the Packers on the way out the door, Aaron Rogers loses $35 million in guarantees with this new deal. He has a $9 million cap hit this year. So on the way out, Aaron Rogers decides to make things as easy as possible on his new team as they try to build around him over the next couple years. And I think those are the two messages that are sent with this. One, FU to Green Bay on the way out the door. And two, I'm probably going to be here for the next two years.

And I think the Jets have to feel pretty good about that after making the draft commitment and just the emotional commitment that they've made to Aaron Rogers in this process. Yeah, I mean, it's funny. We saw this a lot with Brady back in the day. People are like, oh, well, quarterbacks just don't take discounts. That's just not what they do. And Patrick Mahomes is in the news for the same reason right now as Herbert gets his deal. And Joe Burroughs probably going to get his deal any minute now.

And like the idea that a quarterback would take less is pushed back on by that whole idea of like, oh, winning is everything. And I just, I love the idea of the motivation here. Like part of it, sure, trying to help the Jets put a good team around him. Aaron Rogers has obviously made plenty of money over the course of his career. But yeah, I can't, I can't help but think that, yeah, there's a message here, whether it's FU or whether it's just, you know, emphasizing the idea that he did not want to be in Green Bay anymore. Like, oh, yeah, like, I might have done this for the Packers, but that relationship was completely soured by the time we got to that point.

And so, you know, it reminds me of people who just, like, spam their Instagram feed with their new girlfriend or boyfriend, just like they really want you to know how happy they are with the new state of affairs. That's the vibe I'm getting from the Jets these days. Yeah, that's what, I don't know, how Aaron Rogers felt. It felt recently divorced, you know, 40 something early on. Going to those basketball games of Sauce Gardner,

the honeymoon period is definitely still in play with what's going on in that Jets organization right now. All right, it's take time. We're each going to do a few of these, you know, four or five of them. Let's hear it. What's your first one? Your half-baked take that you want to workshop here for the 2020-3 season.

Actually, since we were talking about Rogers, I think it's a perfect segue. I've been thinking about this since it happened. I just have this gnawing feeling in the back of my head that people are like relegating the packers to the back burner way too soon for for a variety of reasons which I'm happy to get into but I look at the packers and actually as I've told you before I'm a I'm a devoted listener of the athletic football show I heard you talking the other day with Lindsay Jones I believe about how your big doubt with the

Packers is the youth of their offense and and yeah like that's that is the issue is I Obviously, you're plugging a new quarterback into that team. All of your past catchers really across the roster are young. But what's not young is their offensive line and their running back duo, which is one of the better in the NFL. Okay, we did not plan this, but it's actually this is something I wanted to get off in this take. And it involves Sean Payton. I remember when, and for those who don't know,

I covered the Cowboys for, for a very long time, very much of my life dedicated to that franchise. And I remember when Dak Prescott took over as the starting quarterback in 2016, you know, he was not the guy that he would go on to be. He was a rookie fourth round pick who was plugged into this team. And he just basically, he just, he took the play in front of him and he didn't make mistakes. And I remember having conversations with people at that time that, that it was basically it's it's the two-handed sword of yeah having an all pro quarterback is great but all pro quarterbacks are harder to coach because they know just as much if not more than the

coaches do and so you're going to deal with freelancing you're going to deal with not running what the coaching staff wants you to run doesn't that remind you of the situation with erin rogers and nat with flora over the last couple of years and so i think about that and i say if jordan love can do what Matt LaFleur wants him to do and execute the offense, which I would imagine will be very run-heavy. That's what I expected it to be last year, and it was not as much as I thought it would be. If you can lean on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon and what looks like not the best offensive line in the game, but a better one, then I think that offense can be highly functional as long as Jordan Love is not terrible. And then over on the flip side, we don't need to beat it into the ground any further.

but eventually, eventually there's too much talent on that defense for them to still be terrible, right? No, that is the one part of this that I don't agree with because why? Why should the results be that much different on defense? They stuck with the defensive coordinator, you know, so many teams around the league who fell short of expectations and had disappointing units on either side of the ball. The Chargers' offense, the Brown's defense, they made changes because they understood they needed to make changes. They needed to get more out of the personnel they had in that unit. And the Packers decided not to do that. So I don't know if we necessarily can expect more out of that defense.

That's part one of my concern here. I don't know. Part two is I understand what you're saying about the offense. There was a compromise that had to be made with Aaron Rogers and Matt LaFleur about what that was going to look like over the last couple of years. Because Aaron Rogers wanted to do things one way and Matt LaFleur had a lot of faith in the structure of that offense. The compromise they came to won Aaron Rogers two MVP awards. They came to a very good place. So the bet you're now making is that the structure is going to lift up Jordan Love in a considerable way.

And I just don't know how much evidence we have that that's going to be the case. I think that's a big bet on Matt LaFlor. Maybe it's a worthwhile bet, but I think that there's some risk involved in it. To be clear, we have no evidence. And I definitely, I am not going to be the guy that trumpets Jordan Love because of what happened in the second half of one game against a Philadelphia team that was doing whatever it wanted on offense in that game. Like, that's one thing we're not going to do. But the guy was, I mean, the guy's talented. He was talented enough to be a first round pick.

At the very least, he's shown flashes of confidence. and I can take the Packers at their word that he's good enough that they're willing to see what he can do. I think it was Mark Murphy this week that was talking about, you know, we'll probably need half a season or a little bit more to know what we have in Jordan. I just think, you know, I think the coaching around him is good enough and the talent around him is good enough. Again, I don't think the Packers are going to be a top-tier offense in the NFL right away. but I do think they can be good enough to keep them afloat, keep them in the playoff race.

And that's the other part of it that I think has to go into. Any conversation you have about an NFC team has to happen in the context of like, who do you like? Who do you like in the NFC? Obviously you like the Eagles. You like the Niners. You probably like the Cowboys, although they're always going to come with some baggage.

But like after those three teams, you can sell me on damn near anybody. I like literally other than Arizona, you can sell me on like anybody in the NFC. And so I just look at it and I say, do I think the Packers can win nine games? Yeah, yeah, I think I do. I have no issue with that.

I also think the Packers can win nine games, but I think some of the pillars of that are a little bit more in question than you might. I have a little bit less faith in the defense just being better because it has to be. And we just don't know what Jordan love. The president of the team came out and said, we don't know what we're going to get.

out of Jordan Love. So I think the uncertainty associated with them just leads me to believe that there's just less I can hang my hat on with Green Bay. But I'm with you because I think my first one here is I think the Lions hype, I think it's just gone a little bit too far. The Lions right now are minus 175 to make the playoffs. Those are pretty good odds to make the playoffs. That is a surefire playoff team in people's minds.

they are plus 140 to win the NFC North. I just think the gap between those two teams and Green Bay has similar odds as Minnesota does, I just think there's too big of a gap there. The Lions still have questions at so many position groups. They're secondary. They signed some guys, but CJ Gardner Johnson got banged up in training camp. Emmanuel Mosley is still on the Pup list. This idea that their defense just has to be so much better this year,

I want to see it. I want to see that improvement before I just pencil it in. They were 23rd and weighted defensive DVOA last season. And I know their offense was rolling. And I know that there's a lot of excitement justifiably about Ben Johnson and about that group. But Jared Gough is somebody that needs to be pointed in the right direction. Again, it's a big bet on the structure. They went out and their big move at their past catching spots this offseason was going to get Sam Leporta in the second round.

I'm excited about the Lions. I do think that they should be the favorite to win the NFC North. I just, I'm getting toward this place where I think that the way we're talking about the lions and the way we're talking about the Vikings and the Packers, the pecking order and the hierarchy and the gap between them is just getting a little bit too big in my opinion. I don't even, I don't push back on that even a little bit. Yeah, I think, I mean, if you have to handicap the NFC North, I think the Lions deserve to be at the top of that list. but I really, I think that division's going to be a absolute dog fight. And I would be, I know the Vikings, what, did the Vikings just win 13 games? Yes.

They won 13 games in a fraudulent way. Sure. We talked about this. I talked about this with Courtney Grown in last week. I think the Vikings could be pretty decent, man. I think the Vikings' offense has a chance to be good this year. They were top 10 in EPA per play on offense over the second half of last season after they made the San Diego. the T.J. Hawkinson trade. They went out and drafted Jordan Addison in the first round. It's

year two in that system. I think they have to be better running the ball than they were last year because they're absolutely terrible. And I know the defense has very little talent. It's extremely young, but they were a mess at the end of last year. So even if they're not a 13-win team, they could be a 9-win team. They could be a 10-win team. And I think the Packers could hang out in a similar range. So if you got those two teams that are going to be really competitive, I just think penciling the Lions in is the NFC North champion and saying they should be considerable favorite over those other two. That gap just feels a little bit too big to me.

No, for sure. And that's what I was going to say is I know the Vikings just, they just proved me wrong with that very wacky 13-win season. But I would be pretty surprised if the winner of this division has more than 10 wins. Maybe 11, maybe. But I just, I think this is, this is four very middling teams. I think there's a world where you can squint just the right way. imagine the Bears winning it too, but I think that's pretty far-fetched.

But yeah, I think all of those three teams, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit are probably a lot closer than the talking points give you credit for. And it sucks because, like, it's fun, right? It's very fun that the lions are getting this, this groundswell of hype because it's probably the first, maybe the only other time in my memory that people were this excited about the Lions was maybe when they drafted Stafford, like when they very first drafted him, like when he won that game with a broken collarbone or whatever it was, way in ancient times.

But other than that, not a whole lot. So, yeah, I mean, like, I'm very happy that they're having this moment, but I'm not convinced it's going to bear out as convincingly as some people think. I, again, I absolutely think the Lions can win the NFC North. And I think this should be the favorite. But I think the gap between them and the other teams is not as big as people are making it out to be. That's all. And I think the same is true about the NFC East and the Giants.

The Giants are plus 750 to win the NFC East right now. That feels way too long of odds. I know that they were a fraudulent playoff team last year. I know that they were a middle of the pack team at best. But I think the Eagles and the Cowboys both have serious questions. The Eagles replaced both coordinators. They went to the Super Bowl last year with fantastic health. And when you lose this, when you go that far and you lose, we've seen there be a little

bit of a hangover. That happens to teams. And Dallas, we're going to have the same conversation we've had about Dallas every single year. So much talent. They've so many good players all over the roster. Who the hell knows how this Mike McCarthy, Brian Schottenheimer thing, is going to turn out. So the fact that right now, the Eagles are minus 110, the Cowboys are plus 170, and the giants are plus 750, I just think that gap is way too big, even if I don't feel like I'm overly excited about the Giants. see this is where i'll push back a little bit and i will readily admit um the bias of following this

division as closely as i have uh and sure it comes from a cowboy's perspective that's i can live with that but like i've just i've never in this entire era i just i've never i've never taken the giants overly seriously other than ironically like the two biggest frauds of last season wound up playing in the playoffs. And I was like, wow, the giants are going to win a playoff game because they're playing the Vikings. Like one of those teams had to win. But other than that, I just, I like what they're doing, but I don't think they're

there yet. Like Dexter Lawrence, really amazing player, underrated player. I love the Andrew Thomas deal. I think we're not very far away from talking about him as like the best left tackle in football, just when you consider the age, when you consider. you know, guys like Tyron Smith and Dallas are not going to be in the league for a whole lot longer. Like, his time is coming. And maybe the Giants will too. But in this entire time that Daniel Jones has been their quarterback, I've never seen a reason to take them seriously. Like for all his faults, for all we can criticize him for, Dak Prescott hasn't lost to New York since he was a rookie.

the Giants couldn't beat the Cowboys when Cooper Rush was their quarterback last year. And I don't think the roster is all that improved from last season. Like I know they've signed like every slot receiver in existence. I can't wait to see how they line up. Like I can't wait to see when they're an 11 personnel. They're like, these are the three that we need. Like the guy that most resembles like a deep threat is Jalen Hyatt, the rookie, but he played in an offense in Tennessee that gives a lot of people anxiety about how quickly you can

hit the ground running. I think the problem is that they mostly have deep threats in the slot receivers because that's what Darius Slayton is too. They have two burners in Darius Slate and J. E.1. Hyatt, they have a couple tight ends. They have a bunch of slot receivers. I say Hodgons is that big-bodied receiver, but it is a very strangely constructed group. But I think they are improved in enough ways to expect them to be less fraudulent than they were

last show. Let's put it that way. Because they did improve the offensive line. They spent resources on it. You expect Evan Neal to potentially be better in year two. They drafted John Michael Schmitz in the second round to be their starting center. They went out and got Darren Waller. And Darren Waller obviously has injury concerns, but I do think the past catching spots are better. I think their defensive front is full of real dudes. They went out and signed A. Sean Robinson in free agency. And in the secondary, they're going to be so much healthier than they were last year in combination with drafting a corner in the first round. So I This is a bet on the coaching staff.

Every other team in this division, the teams that we think are going to compete for this division, there has been changed at some of the most important spots on those staffs. The Giants there has been. These are the same guys that got more out of their talent last year than we ever could have expected. And there's more talent there now than there was last season. I don't think the Giants are going to win the NFC East. I wouldn't pick them to win the NFC East. But them being plus 750 when the other two are hanging around minus or plus 100,

that just feels a little bit too big of a gap to me. I hear what you're saying. And I think maybe it's just one of those things again. I'll readily admit, I think a decade of being that close to the forest in the NFC East. Really, since 2016, the Giants have just had this like little brother vibe where neither Philly nor Dallas has really had to take them all that seriously. But that's what the change is. The change is important is the Brian Dable part of this. No, I think they are wonderful.

They were an unserious organization for a very long time for like a stretch here. I think that they are a much more serious organization now with the staff that they have in place. I completely agree with that. And before any Giants fans get too angry listening to me, I absolutely think they are headed in the right direction. And I mean, I think the world of Brian Daibold. But I still think between the fact that Dallas and Philly have two of the three best rosters in the league, or at least in the NFC and the two best quarterbacks in the NFC as well,

in my opinion, I think in most people's opinion, I just feel like that's a lot to overcome. It might not be a lot to overcome one of those two teams, but to overcome both of them and win the division feels like a big ask. It's a fair point. I just think that there is a smaller gap between those two teams and the Giants and other people

based on what we saw out of their staff last year and some of the improvements that they made. Again, I think the health of the, secondary is another important part of this because when they fell off defensively last year, they were a mess in the second half of the year, that position group was just all over the place. And I just think that they have more talent back there than they had last season. All right. Take number two. Lay it on me. Okay. I can see some similarities between what you just said about the giants and what I'm about to say.

Just give me all the stock you can in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like every, every little bit of it. And maybe that's not a hot take. Like, obviously, the Jags look to be the best team in their division. It's a woeful looking division right now. But I'm not even talking about that. I'm talking, like, long term in the big picture right now and in the future, I am buying like a Cincinnati-esque renaissance in Jacksonville where overnight we go from thinking

of them as like a more abundant franchise. Like, think about how crazy it is. is Joe, we were talking about how Joe Burrough should like sit out for a year and reenter the draft rather than be a Bengal. And now we're talking about how the Bengals are the only franchise that can really mess with Kansas City. They've been to two straight AFC championship games. So like, these types of things can happen. That's how quickly life moves in the NFL. That's going to feed into one of my takes later. So it's funny that you mentioned that, but I agree. But so I can completely buy that happening in Jacksonville is what I'm trying to say. And actually,

this is the type of thing. I've been pacing around my apartment for a month thinking to myself, because that's the type of person I am. I'm thinking to myself, like, am I insane if I think Jacksonville is the one seed in the AFC playoffs this year? And I don't think I am. And we have precedent for it in the AFC South. It sounds weird to think about.

But in 2021, Tennessee was the one seed in the AFC. Obviously, it didn't work out for them at all. But when you play in a bad division with a good team, you go six and oh in that division it's a good jump start to be the number one seat in the conference and look i you know mike rable's a hell of a coach i'm smarter than to think that the jags are going to sweep their division like they're going to lose some mind-numbing like 15 to 14 game to mike rable at some point during the season but that is still a division that can jump start your season and on top of that robert they get to play the nfc south which is another division with four

teams that you don't really know how much you believe in. So you're staring at an opportunity for like eight to 10 wins right there. And then that's before you get into the meat of the schedule against your Kansas cities and your Buffaloes and your Cincinnati's. Like they do have to play some really tough games, but it's going to be bolstered by a very winnable couple of divisions. And oh, by the way, I love everything they've done. I mean, I think, again, by like I can't believe.

Trevor Lawrence's stock is as low as it is after he finished the season the way that he did. From the time the Jags went on their by week in November, they were, I mean, they were such a different team. And on top of that, they've, they've added to it. I mean, if you think I'm not susceptible to the Calvin Ridley hype videos that are already coming out of Jacksonville right now, like, and it all makes so much more sense. Like you look at it last year and you're like, is Christian Kirk really a number one? And to his craft. credit. He made a lot of us look stupid. But now he doesn't have to worry about that. You pop Calvin Ridley in there. I mean, that's, I think, again, there's so many great receivers, and it's such a

what have you done for me lately world. It's easy to forget that Calvin Ridley was an all pro, who had a 1,300 yard season before he got hurt and then eventually got suspended. So if you're getting that guy back, that's a true number one. Now Christian Kurt can be a number two. You've got Evan Ingram back, Travis A. TN. You use a first round pick on your offensive line. Like, what's not to like? If Trevor Lawrence is even close to being the guy that he looked like and the guy that we thought he was, what's not to like?

Like, I think this is a team that can win 12 plus games this year. And I think this is a team that can continue to take advantage of Trevor Lawrence being a young quarterback. You realize he's not 24 yet. He's not, he's 23. I think he turns 24 in October. I just, I think the sky is the limit for this team. And I think this year and over the next like three, four years, I think it's going to be very similar to a Cincinnati situation where all of a sudden

this forgotten franchise is like at the pinnacle of the league. I firmly believe that. Here's what's not to like. I've got a few things. Okay. All right. The areas of this roster that were the worst at the end of last season are areas of this roster that haven't really changed in the offseason.

The interior of their offensive line was a serious concern. Even when they played Tennessee in that final game and they were trying to make the playoffs, you could see some of the cracks in that area of this team. Luke Fortner is in year two as their starting center. Hopefully he's better. But I still think the interior of the offensive line is a question. I am choosing to believe the Calvin Ridley hype. It's easy to say he hasn't played in a couple years.

What can you expect out of him? I just think that that version of him that you're talking about dropped into this offense, like you alluded to. It almost makes more sense. Now, Christian Kirk is what he's supposed to be. You have a true number one receiver. Even if we concede that. They drafted Anton Harrison.

in the first round, so they have a starting tackle even with Cam Robinson being suspended. The offense, I think, has a chance to be very, very good. The offense was good last year. This defense finished 30th in past defense DVOA last season, and they added no pieces to it. Yeah, I do it. I will admit that that is the flaw in my plan. They, when they had their tweak in the personnel on the back end, when they moved Trey Hernd into the slot, they moved Darius Williams outside, things clicked into place

for them in a way that made sense. the overall, the secondary, which is played better down the stretch than it did for most of last year. And you can expect some steps forward from a guy like Trayvon Walker and maybe some of the young defensive pieces that drafted early. There are some expectations there, and that's not crazy. But I still feel like them being a 12, 13 win team with how many questions there were on that defense and the way that they were playing at the end of last season, it's hard for me to get there. I am pumped about this offense. And I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt after what Doug Peterson and that staff did with

this group of season ago, but I still feel like top to bottom, there are enough questions where I'm not sure that they can topple the real contenders of the AFC. My only counter to that, because you're right. And again, similar to Green Bay, in Jacksonville, I just think you find yourself kind of hoping that this is going to be like Madden. You know, I always use that as comparison where if you ever play like Dynasty mode on Madden, you're like, oh, well, we went through the offseason. So all of our guys jumped up by four attributes. Like, it doesn't work that way in real. life. But when you've got a number one overall pick on your defense, when you've got another

first round pick in Devin Lloyd, like when you have those types of resources, the hope is that those guys get better as they play. And obviously, you can't count on that, but I think that's at least, it's at least possible. And then on top of that, again, just because they win 12 or 13 games does not mean they're for real. Again, the Vikings just found that out. The Titans found that out two years ago when they were the number one seed. I don't, and that's why I do not have it in me to like pick Jacksonville to go to the Super Bowl. I think that is that is too early. But I do think Jacksonville can absolutely jump onto the radar.

And I mean, they kind of did last year with how hot they were at the end of the year. And then they went a playoff game in dramatic fashion, played the chief's tough in a loss. If they can do that over the course of an entire season and not have that lulled, where, you know, I think they lost six games in a row in the middle of last season, or maybe it was five. If they can avoid something like that, then they're going to be at worst, like a 10, 11 win team, in my opinion. And if they're better than that, then yeah, I think you could see them finish atop the AFC, maybe not get to the Super Bowl, but really set the stage for again, like, hey, Trevor's that dude, Calvin Ridley's that dude. Like, we're cooking with gas.

We can put some pieces on defense, maybe bolster the offensive line a little bit. And again, I hate to keep bringing up Cincinnati, but we've already seen a team do this where as soon as the bingles figured out that Joe was worth the hype, they just started throwing resources into the stuff that they didn't have. And now they're one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. I am bullish on the Jags. I just think that there are places to poke holes in this plan. That's my own thing. And I've made this mistake before looking at a defensive roster and saying, I don't know about this while the offense has a chance to be really, really good. defenses, you can get hot, you can get lucky, you can get some breaks, things can click into place.

If the offense is a top five offense, they're worth betting on. And I think that there's a chance that that's how good this group is this year, if Calvin Ridley is the player we expect him to be, and Trevor Lawrence is that guy. I'm easily a top five, top three offense. I'm excited to watch. Again, between Ridley, their pass catchers are exciting. Even, you know, like Tank Bigsby is one of my favorite rookies to watch this year. I know Ithian is there, but I thought that was a, that's incredible value to have a guy that talented as your backup running back.

I cannot wait to see them play. My next one, you mentioned the Bengals. And I've been thinking about this a little bit. And I don't know exactly how to frame it because I think the Bengals are going to be really good this season. Everything that they've done on offense and the personnel that they have on that side of the ball. They went out and got Orlando Brown. Obviously what Joe Burrow has been, I don't have to tell you as a. very proud LSU grad what he's been for that franchise.

I'm a little bit worried about what the next 12 months could look like for the Bengals if they don't win it this year. And even the state of the Bengals right now, I feel like we're starting to get down this road. They lost Von Bell in Free Agency. They lost Jesse Bates in Free Agency. They had to replace them with cheaper alternatives because pretty soon they're going to spend a lot of money on this roster. Mike Brown came out earlier this week and was asked about the Joe Burrow extension and some of the other contracts they're going to have to sign. And he essentially said, yeah, you know, we have a salary cap and we can only pay so many people. Other teams in the AFC that are trying to win the Super Bowl aren't necessarily operating that way. The bill spent $302 million in cash on their roster this year.

That's a lot more than the salary cap. They've converted Josh Allen's deal every single year over the last couple seasons and they've put that money back into the team. They went out and got Leonard Floyd. They got Connor McDermott in free agency. They're trying to do everything they can to pry this window open, and they're spending the money to do that. The Bengals aren't the cheap team that they were 10 years ago. They've spent in free agency in ways they did previously,

but they're never going to be one of those teams that pushes it into the red cash-wise. They're always going to be in the bottom third of the league. And I'm wondering, does that put them at a disadvantage when they're trying to match fire with fire with some of these teams that are really, really going for it year and year out. So after the season is over, DJ Reeder is a free agent. Logan Wilson is a free agent. T. Higgins is a free agent.

They're going to pay all those guys, but at a certain point, they're going to have weak points on their roster after they start paying all this cheap talent that they drafted. So even if we're excited about the core, there are going to be areas that they just can't address that were really strong over the last couple seasons? Their defense top to bottom didn't have a lot of weaknesses. Now we're looking at Nick Scott on a cheap deal, Dax Hill. For this plan to come together, these cheap rookies that they drafted really have to be good players. So I think that it's worth betting on Joe Burrow and it's worth betting on that young core on offense.

But I just feel like their best days might already be behind them. And with all of these huge contracts on the horizon, is this needle that they have to thread that they're going to get so thin that we're going to talk about that missed opportunity that they had last season. as their best chance that they were ever going to have. I don't know if I believe this, but I'm starting to worry about it because even if they're not cheap, they are not going to spend in the ways that other teams have to try to pry this thing open. The chargers are $60 million over the salary cap next year because of what they've tried to do with this roster.

And that doesn't guarantee you anything. The chiefs have proven you can be a team that doesn't throw a lot of cash around and consistently compete if you have the right quarterback. That is the most important thing. but they're just lingering doubts that I have about the Bengals' ability to kind of rise to everyone else's level if they're not going to be a team that throws the money around. So a couple of questions. And this is a legitimate question that I don't know the answer to. But are we seeing, has Joe Burrow changed the culture in Cincinnati enough that maybe you're wrong about that?

No. You don't, I mean, not even. Look at what they've done over the last couple of years. They haven't changed the structure of the contracts that they hand out. They're still comfortable letting guys walk out the door. I mean, look at Von Bell's deal. Von Bell's deal that he got from the Panthers is not a crazy contract, but he got guarantees into the third year further than the Bengals are willing to go.

They're going to be willing to move on from these guys. And I think that their plan is going to be, we spend to the cap. And that is what we do. And if you're going to operate that way in a league where other teams are willing to go above and beyond that, the teams that you're competing against, are you putting yourself at a disadvantage? my only pushback on that and again i'm not enough of an expert i'm definitely not saying you're wrong but on the flip side again in the time since joe got there and became the man you know

they went out two off seasons ago and they got alex kappa and lyell collins lyle collins in particular like some of that didn't work so what did they do this year they dropped fat stacks on orlando brown like that's with all those guys on rookie deals though that that's with Jamar Chase on a rookie contract. That's what T. Higgins on a rookie contract. That's what Joe Burrow on a rookie contract. I think this is the world that that everybody who's good has to live in eventually where you have to make calculated decisions about who you're willing to let go. Because honestly, I and look, Von Bell is such an underrated player. He's he's awesome. And even if you weren't going to keep Jesse Bates, it would have been nice to keep Von Bell. But that's why you

do things like spend a first round pick on Dax Hill who, I mean, again, It reminds me of Philadelphia in the sense of guys we drafted highly who we didn't need last year now have to become starters. It honestly reminds me of college football where you're like, this five star had the luxury of sitting last year. But the guy in front of him is off to the NFL now and we need him to step up. You're seeing it in places like Philly. You're definitely seeing it in places like Cincinnati to some degree. And you mentioned the bills. I know the bills are willing to make money go further than the Bengals.

but I think you're seeing that in Buffalo right now because what you're saying about the bingles reminds me of the bills where you're like, I'm not saying their windows closed, but it looks a lot more bleak than it did a year and a half ago. And the fix to that is that you have to draft consistently well. And I would argue the bingles recently have done it better than the bills. We'll see if they can keep it up.

But that's the problem is that those hot streaks in the draft don't often continue. You had that run where you got, Joe Burrow and Jamar. They were top five picks. You're drafted in the top five. It's easy to find those guys when you're drafted in the top five. If you're going to be a contender every year and you're trying to replace the talent that you're losing with the 26, 27th pick in the draft, that becomes more difficult.

You mentioned the Eagles. Look at all the funny money bullshit that the Eagles do to try to keep that roster together. And that's kind of what I'm saying. If you're trying to compete against teams that are willing to do that stuff and you're not, you're just going to be at a disadvantage. I'm not calling the Bengals cheap. I'm not saying they can't do it because having the guy at quarterback is the most important thing.

The teams that have had success that are contenders year and year out, think about the chiefs, think about the Patriots. Both of those guys, the quarterbacks didn't take as much money. And in Tom Brady's case, think that was the most important thing. And then in Patrick Mahomes' case, he's a one-of-one consideration. So trying to do that, even if you have the right guy, comes with important caveats. The chiefs have done this without spending a ton of cash every year. but are they the outlier when you look at the entire landscape of the NFL?

My only and I'll, my only pushback really, again, even a team like the Eagles, the Eagles are the masters of this. I have so much admiration for them. But even the Eagles let Javon Hargrave walk in free agency. And masterfully, they have two badass Georgia players ready to step into his spot. But I think to some degree, you have to live in that world where it's like, we. have to identify the can't lose guys and somebody who's really good eventually is going to be a guy that you can't afford to keep the other thing is and this has this has the potential to age so poorly and i apologize for that because i think like herbert's deal came down while i was

listening to your podcast like earlier this week but what do you like what do you think joe's deal is going to look like like it's going to look like herbert's deal with more like substantially more or just like slotting him on top of Herbert? I would say slotting it on top of herbert would be my guess. But even if that's all it is, that's a shitload of money, man. Yeah, for sure. There's no discount being taken there. It's hard to build around that guy when you're not willing to be creative and how you're

changing the deal. All of those things that we look at with Josh Allen restructuring consistently, all these quarterbacks, even if they take these monster contracts, the teams are keep restructuring them and then spending the cash back on the roster, are the Bengals going to be willing to do that. That becomes my question. And if they're not willing to do that, is it just harder to win against teams that are willing to pull those levers? I want to be clear about this. I think Joe Burrow is incredible. I am so excited about the state of the Bengals, because I know Bengals fans are crazy. This is not one of those things where I'm doubting the Bengals or concerned

about the Bengals. It's just this lingering worry that I have, as we get a little bit further down the line here, that it's going to be harder for them than it is for other teams. And is that going to put them in a consistent disadvantage. That's my only worry. And again, this is a half-baked take that I'm just trying on. I don't truly believe any of this. This is my half-bake take, and like I said, it could blow up in my face by the time you publish this podcast, unfortunately. But I wonder if there's any possibility that Joe tries to do a Mahomes-type deal. Maybe not the exact same parameters, but a similar deal that helps the bingles. And, And it's not, it's not fair to put that on him because, first, Joe Burrow doesn't owe the Bengals shit.

He should do whatever he feels is right. I'm not saying he should do that. I hate, I hate when people say that. Get what you're worth. Get the price tag that you feel like you deserve power to the players all day. But Joe at this point probably has a good feel for the organization that he's in. He certainly seems like he cares about keeping up with the chiefs. And he probably really enjoys having.

the best receiver trio in the NFL. And we're going to get into this in a minute because it's a take that I'm trying on as well. But the money that it's going to cost to keep a guy like Jamar Chase, is it even feasible to have a receiver like that when you have a quarterback on a major contract? And so, again, it's not Joe Burroughs responsibility to do that. But if there's a quarterback who would take an eight-year deal or a 10-year deal, you could at least convince me that Joe Burroughs, would be interested. Like I said. I would be surprised if that happened.

Based, I think that when you look at the deal that Mahomes signed, one of the most important considerations, in my opinion, is the agent that signed it. Lee Steinberg, who then in his company who represent Patrick Mahomes, it was, they were just kind of getting back into the football world. I think that the headlines associated with the biggest deal in NFL or in sports history is something that they wanted. Joe Burrow is a CIA guy.

Joe Burrow has very traditional representation. I don't think the guys, in that building are going to be willing to take a below market deal when that's not how they operate. That's not how they've ever operated. They're going to take the deal that they feel is best for their client, for their market, and they're not going to take a step back in that direction. At least that's how I would think about it. And I think those, that's an important thing to think about. It absolutely is. And when you hear the letters CAA, you typically know what to expect. So I don't think you're wrong. But I mean, yeah, it's, it's something.

you have to think about again because yeah i mean there's there's three or four guys on that team that are about to be costing an astronomical amount of money which is the next thing i wanted to get into with you is where do you think we're headed with this receiver market because and specifically i think it's it's about to get really silly like it's already and i don't use silly to suggest that these guys aren't worth it that's not what i mean but i think we're about to have five of these type of deals come down at once because Justin Jefferson is eligible. Jamar Chase will be eligible very soon. C.D. Lamb is eligible. And you're talking about guys that are now going to be asking for bare minimum upper 20s, but probably at least in the case of

Justin Jefferson hitting that $30 million mark. And I just wonder, how tenable is that before you see, before you see it go back the other way and teams are like, we can't, we can't build a team when a receiver is costing this much of our salary cap. Because I feel like we could be close to that happening. I mean, Justin Jefferson's deal is absolutely going to start with a three. Yeah. Yeah. Tyree Kill is a $30 million a year. If I'm Justin Jefferson's agent, my argument starts at probably $32 million a year if Tyree Kill is there. Justin Jefferson's like 24 years old. If he signs a three year, if I'm Justin Jefferson's agent, I think that what I would ask for is essentially the Kirk Cousins deal that we saw a couple of years ago. Three years, 100 million with 75 million dollars guaranteed. Something in that range. That's probably what I would start with if I were walking into that room because I don't think it's crazy to ask for that, considering his production, considering his age and considering where the market has gone. no i don't i don't think you're wrong at all and and and when he's eligible which i mean starting in

january i assume jemar chase is going to have another great year i think he'll be right there again cd lamb is is another guy and that's that's where it gets tricky is i don't know how many of these guys can justify 30 million dollars salaries but i do think we are entering a territory where that's going to be pretty normal and you're going to have like I said, three to five guys that are asking for those type of prices here over the next one to three years probably. And I mean, I know the salary cap goes up every year, but it just makes me wonder if there's a point where there's a course correction. I mean, you saw it in Kansas City. Tyree Kill is still that dude.

And they were like, it's not, it's not tenable to have you here. We, like, we just, we can't have you and all of the other pieces of this thing that we need. And so that's a Kansas City specific bet in my opinion, because you can do that when you have Mahomes. A lot of other teams can't operate that way. If you're the Vikings, you're likely going to move on to a different or rookie quarterback sometime in the next couple of years. And I think you need Justin Jefferson as part of that equation. I think teams might start looking at it the way they look at quarterbacks. Or just because they're more competent quarterbacks than ever and because passing production is higher than it's ever been,

you have to figure out who the true difference makers are. Justin Jefferson might be worth paying $32 million a year, but when we get below a certain tier, there are enough competent receivers that you can't justify paying one that amount of money. It's the same way that even if you're willing to pay Pasch from home $60 million a year, you can't pay a Kirk Cousins' Derek Carr level quarterback $40 million a year. So I think that gap is going to be the most important consideration when you're thinking, who's worthy of these sorts of deals? and I wonder what the cutoff is.

You know, how many receivers? CD Lamb is a good name. I wonder if CD Lamb rises to that level. Or if there is enough of a gap between Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase to CD Lamb that you have to say, you know what? I don't think I can justify paying CD Lamb $30 million a year. I'm going to take my chances. I'm going to let him go and I'm going to see if I can find 90% of CD Lamb,

either on a rookie deal or for $15 million a year. And that's an interesting thought because, I mean, you're obviously, Patrick Mahomes gives you the leeway to do so much stuff. But we were just talking about the Bengals. Do I think the Bengals will let Jamar Chase walk out their door? Absolutely not. But it's a similar thought process where you say, if Joe is that dude, can we pay this guy $32 million a year?

Or would we be better off having three receivers? that amount to a cap charge of 25 million or whatever. Yeah, I'm making the same thing. That would be my assumption because the Bengals still have or the Chiefs still have big money players on their team. You know, Chris Jones is making 25 million or whatever he's making against the cap. He is a monster deal. Travis Kelsey makes a lot of money. I feel like they're going to skimp in other areas because there's no single player on the Bengals defense who's going to be making a ton.

and Trey Hendricksson is going to be a free agent at some point soon. They have nobody that's garnered or justified one of those types of contracts. So I think you can carry one or two other big money players on your team, even after signing your quarterback to that sort of extension. And I think that Jamar Chase is probably going to be one of those players. No, Chase definitely fits the bill. Like I said, I can't imagine the Bengals would let him walk. But as we go and as these types of salaries become more normal for receivers,

I just think you're going to get to that breaking point where teams are like, hang on a second. That's going to happen because supply is still so strong. I think it's the reason some of these teams are willing to move on from these guys because there are enough receivers coming through the pipeline. But I still think that there are guys in a certain tier that are going to justifiably get those sorts of contracts. But I think that tier is pretty small. Yeah, I would agree. All right.

You alluded to this a little bit earlier. And I think that it's something that we've talked about on our show and just our staff over the last couple months. And I've been thinking about it a lot. I think this might be the most optimistic time in NFL history across all 32 teams. How many fan bases truly feel shitty about where their team is right now? Like one maybe? Which one? Arizona.

Okay. Arizona is likely going to be the worst team in the league. That likely might be strong. Arizona has a very good chance to be the worst team in the league in a year where Caleb Williams is going to be the number one pick in the draft. You are slated to be the worst team in the league and potentially have two top five picks in a draft with a franchise altering quarterback potentially. So even that team is bad at the right time.

If you're a Cardinals fan, you're looking at the next 12 months and saying, this could really fall our way. that is totally fair and on a long enough timeline you're right like the Cardinals probably feel pretty good about where they are but I'm just in terms of the fact that training camp just opened

like Cardinals fans are like Andy Dufrain in the Shawshank Redemption like you got to crawl through a river of shit to get the salvation like the next four months I see the light at the end of the tunnel though if I'm the cardinals fans I see that light so that's Arizona everyone else

you could talk yourself into what happening right now. Some of the more Moribund franchises in the league, the ones that have been downtrodded for so long. You mentioned the Bengals, where the Bengals have been at over the last few years. Things are great there. Jacksonville has been just hammered over and over and over again for so long. They have Trevor Lawrence. You just talked about they're one of the best teams in the league. They could be the number one seat in the AFC. The Jets and the Giants, it was a rough stretch there for a while, man. All they wanted was competency. And they have found it. The Giants season last year and what Brian Dable has been for them.

The Jets are a Super Bowl contender. Where are these teams that feel awful about their future? Even, like, to hammer home your point, what is the most hopeless, moribund franchise of the last quarter century? The Lions. Well, that's a good answer, too. I was thinking Washington,

and they just got rid of their crappy owner. Yes. So Washington, to me, is the best answer on a football personnel level. but every fan in Washington is feeling great right now. Did you see there's a photo up on Twitter right now? I will, I need to make sure I credit her because it's hilarious. Yeah, Nikki Javala, she had an over like a year-by-year comparison of last year and this year.

And like the, you know, the commanders are widely expected to finish fourth in their division. They're starting a fifth round rookie at quarterback. and fans are like five deep just because they're happy to be out of that era of ownership. I'm so excited for that franchise and their fans. Yeah, Washington is a fantastic example. I mentioned the Lions, a team that had been downtrodden for so long. They're playing the opening game of the season to pick to win the division. And some of these teams with young quarterbacks, a lot of teams that were kind of in the wilderness,

the Texans, the Texans hired Demioreans this off season. There's so much excitement around him. to see Jay Stroud in the top five. I can't think of a team that feels truly bad about where they are. One of the teams with one of the bleakest outlooks this year on moving forward is probably the Rams, and they won the Super Bowl like two years ago. I honestly think a lot of the teams that feel the worst, the fan bases that feel the worst, are probably fan bases of contending teams.

I think Bill's fans have a lot of trepidation right now. Cowboys fans have a lot of trepidation right now. So even those teams are in a very good position. So I just can't picture and can't think of a time that it's felt like this where so many different organizations and fan bases around the league have had this level of collective optimism. I got one for you. And I'm not saying that they, they're not in a bad place, but I would be genuinely curious to know like the collective pulse of that fan base. not that anybody in the world feels bad for them. The Patriots. Yeah.

That's actually a really good one. But that's the point, right? Oh, yeah. So if they're in the worst place, a team that's won, I don't know how many Super Bowls over the last two decades. But the NFL is in a good spot. Even the Pats, like, I mean, you could talk me into the Pats making the playoffs. I don't think that they're. Yeah, but that's a pretty defined ceiling.

I honestly, the team that might be in the worst spot, or if I were a fan of, of this team, I think I would be the most worried, and I don't have those Super Bowls on the shelf that make me feel a little bit better about myself is the Raiders. I just don't really know what the Raiders are doing or where they're going, but the Raiders are another team. They could be so bad this year that they position themselves for one of these quarterbacks in the top five in a draft where you want one of these picks. Yeah, and correct me if I'm wrong, but like there's nothing in Jimmy Garapolo's deal that like marries him to Vegas. And so, yeah, like, if it goes as bad as it looks like, it could. They could be in a very

cardinals-esque situation as well. So, uh, yeah, the bucks are kind of directionless, but the bucks have a Super Bowl in their pocket from two years ago. It's been a pretty fun run in Tampa. So I think it's a very, there's a lot of good vibes hanging around the NFL. A lot of good feelings. I walked myself through the standings last night. And I, I think the only, the only teams in the NFL that I cannot squint and imagine a path to the playoffs.

are Arizona and Vegas, who we just mentioned. Like those really, those are the only teams where I'm like, I just don't see it at all. I just don't. So what? That's 30 out of 32 teams that have a, I mean, that's crazy. I think the cold, I think it's hard for me to imagine the Colts making the playoffs this year. I put the Colts and the, I said the Colts and the Texans both have hope by virtue of playing in a bad division. Yeah, I think that's fair.

And I honestly feel better about the Texans than most people do. their defense was quietly okay last season. I think they have some pieces on that side of the ball. They did a good job building that offensive line. Who knows with Stroud? But I think there are paths to the Texans being a competent team this year, a team that kind of hovers around 500. That wouldn't surprise me at all.

Absolutely. And yeah, I mean, am I a big believer in the Colts? No. But if Anthony Richardson hits the ground running, then all bets are off. Yeah, what if he's just a force of nature? I mean, that's definitely on the table. I that sounds I think that sounds incredible like I think I'm stealing this from your show but the idea of like a game pass team like a team that's just not going to spend a lot of time on the national radar that I absolutely want to watch the Colts are definitely they're definitely up there as are your bears that's another team that because of what Justin Fields was last year I think there has to be some optimism and excitement it was fun to watch the bears last year in a way that it hasn't been in recent years so even if there's some concerns about his ceiling and how this is all going to work out, I still feel like

there's a decent amount of optimism, a decent amount of good feelings. Okay, what's your next one here? Lord help me. This is, this is my favorite one, but also my craziest one. But it's bolstered. It's bolstered by a quote from the man himself. I sent it to you before we recorded. So this just, this makes me bolder and really makes me want to lean into this take. This is a quote from San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said, I mean, Steve Young took a while to get going and he's one of the best quarterbacks of all time. I don't like to compare anyone to Steve because of how good he is, but why can't Sam Darnold be like that?

He's got that type of ability. He's that type of person and I'm just pumped that we could get a talented guy like him here. I was literally, I was afraid to put this take on record. And then I read that quote and I was like, Screw it. If Shannon's with me. Just let it rip, baby. Like Sean Payton, just let it rip.

If Shanahan's with me, then no weapon formed against me will prosper. Because, like, I just, I'm fascinated by the idea of Sam Darnold getting a shot in San Francisco. I firmly believe that Kyle Shanahan could turn him into a guy worthy of being drafted in the top three. I, do I have a whole lot to back me up? Not really. But that's how strongly I feel about the talent. San Francisco. That's how strongly I feel about Kyle Shanahan. And honestly, what sounds crazier to you? Mr. Irrelevant piloting the Niners to the NFC championship game or a discarded top five

pick doing it. Like in a vacuum where you don't know that one of them already happened, what sounds crazier to you? And it's Mr. Irrelevant. Like Sam Darnold is a more talented quarterback than Brock Purdy. He's physically talented, yes. Yeah. Yeah. physically talented. And the only reason people would laugh at this take is because we've seen him suck on shitty teams. We've seen him be bad on shitty teams. But,

but mind you, Robert, Sam Donald was not terrible toward the end of last season for the Carolina. Oh, Sam Donald's had stretches, baby. The first four games of the 2021 season, there have been stretches of excitement around Sam Donald.

And so you mean to tell me that if I put him in that collection of talent, where all he's got to do is like boot out and hit Debo or Iyuk on a crosser five or six times a game. Do you know, I look this up. This is all according to PFF. Donald played six games for Carolina last year. Purdy played six. He didn't technically start against Miami,

but we'll give him credit for it because he played most of the game. So in six appearances, Brock Purdy had three big time throws. Sam Darnold had nine. Sam Darnold had two extra yards of A-DOT for a middling Carolina team than Brock Purdy did for the most talented team in the league. Sam Darnold had 2.9% turnover worthy plays. So 2.9% of the time he's throwing a turnover worthy ball. It's the same as Aaron Rogers. And it was better than Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy.

Now, could he extrapolate that over a full season? I have no idea, but do I want to see it? Hell, yes. I have no ill will for Brock Purdy at all. But a little part of me was disappointed to hear that he was cleared because I just want to see Sam Darnold get a chance to do this. I think it would be a lot of fun. And now that I know Kyle Shanahan agrees with me, I'm ready to go.

I just really appreciate you just chasing the Sam Donald Dragon here because it's so easy to do. It is so easy to do because of all the reasons that you've said. Those flash moments, you can talk yourself into them. The only reason I'm not openly rooting to see Sam Darnold play for Kyle Shanahan this year is that it would require two guys to get hurt. And I feel bad wanting a couple guys to get hurt. I'm not crazy enough to root for injuries. But like, on a football level, football experiment level, I absolutely want to see it happen.

Just so I can understand what are the limits of Kyle Shanahan's? effect on quarterbacks because I think that's what you would find out. You cannot, exactly, exactly. You cannot tell me that Kyle Shanahan could get that out of Brock Purdy, but Sam Darnold would just be completely helpless. I just don't believe it. I don't believe that that's true. Listen, science is hot right now with Oppenheimer. I just feel like this moment where we can get in the lab and truly find out what Kyle Shanahan can do, I'm very open to it. So you're not going to get any pushback here. What was the quote from Oppenheimer? Like theory has its limits or whatever? Like, We've got to see this in practice.

That's exactly right. Theory can only take you so far. Yeah. All right. I've got one quick one. We don't have to get too far into this. I think the dolphins are the most talented team in the NFL. I think the dolphins have the most talented roster.

That is the take that I'm trying on here. Look at them top to bottom on both sides of the ball. Obviously, the receivers, you know, the fact that J. Juan Waddle is your second best receiver. I had a conversation with the coach this week about Toronto Armstead and some of the things that Miami did with him last. year and some of the things that asked him to do. I think it's easy to get down on Toronto Armstead because of the injury history.

But when he's healthy, what you can put on his plate is different than most left tackles in the NFL. So he's still a high caliber player when he's on the field. The rest of the offensive line has questions. I think that's the one area would be really concerned. But then you go over to the defense, I think they might have the best front seven in the league, man. Christian Wilkins, Zach Seeler's a really good player. Bradley Chubb. Jalen Phillips is truly ascending.

I went back and watched a little bit of him. this offseason. I'm excited about him. He is a fun player. He plays extremely hard. He's versatile. David Long, dropping him in there at linebacker, Jerome Baker,

and then the secondary. They have Jalen Ramsey now, even if Xavier and Howard is kind of on the backside of his career, Javana Holland, and that's beyond, before we even talk about

them getting dropped into a Vic Fangio defense. Looking at all of these teams, I think that the best argument against them is the Eagles in the NFC, or just NFL wide. But AFC wise, I think they probably have the best roster in the conference. And I think you can

make an argument they have the best roster in the league. It's funny you bring up the Eagles because that's where I was going. At this time last year, I said it repeatedly and he shoved it right back in my face to his credit. But I was like, if Jalen Hertz is anything, then the Eagles should make it to the Super Bowl. Like it's all on him. There's nothing that they don't have. There's absolutely nothing. And clearly he was that guy and he got them there. I feel the exact same way about the dolphins. Obviously, we have such a larger sample size of Tua, but can he stay healthy? Can he play? And, you know, I certainly hope that's the case because, man, they're fun. The dolphins as the the, the dolphins as this year's version of the Eagles for those reasons, I think is a good, like,

half-bake take. My only concern there is that the Eagles offensive line is so, so good. And what that allows your offense to be in the flexibility that it gives you, does Miami have that? A team start playing them a certain way. Can they run the ball the way that they want to? That's a little bit more granular than we want to get with these conversations, but that's the only part where I feel like we're walking out of some thin ice. I agree, but there are things there that can help you offset it, whether that's obviously the quality of the receivers, the speed they have at running back, I think can probably help you offset some of your offensive line limitations a little bit. No, but I mean, you're right, though, that the slump that they had in the second third of the

season was very concerning because they just, they showed an inability to kind of hit the curveball, but just when you talk about it from a pure balance standpoint. They chipped away at it, though. That Buffalo game sticks out to me before Tua got hurt again. Their ability to run the ball in that game, I think was encouraging. And I do like the way that they've built the offensive line, going out and having a low risk move to go get as Isaiah win. You know, if Austin Jackson doesn't work out for you, do you have another option at right tackle? They've got some depth and they've got some pieces and options in that position group that maybe they didn't have a year ago. And when you combine that with the talent lining the rest of the roster, I just think top to bottom,

they might have the most talented team in the week. My, my, the only thing stopping me from picking to win the AFC East is that I just, I'm nervous about Tua. You should be. That's, that's the whole thing. Other than that, yeah, I love them as a trendy pick to win the division. I loved him as a sleeper to make a run in the playoffs as long as he can avoid injury problems. The last one I have here, I think at some point this season, some point over the next six months, we might get to a place where the running back pendulum has just swung too far in the wrong direction. We didn't talk about it at the top of the show, but the Bears gave Cole Commet a extension to pay some $12.5 million a year. Colquette has been a solid player for the Bears.

But at 12.5 million, Sequin had to beg to get to 11.5 million this year. So if these tight ends, these secondary pieces in the offense are going to be getting $12.5 million a year, is Saquan Berkeley really less valuable than Colquette is to an offense. And at Coal Comette's 24, the aging curve for tight ends is such that you expect him to be a better player. Contracts are handed out for what you're going to do, not what you've already done. But that deal just kind of was like, oh, man. And I think that there are some elements of that deal that are a little bit misleading. They front-loaded it.

The most interesting detail about it is that his cap-hit this year actually went up. With a lot of these extensions, your cap-hit goes down. But they changed his base salary this year. So even if he's making $12.5 million on that extension as an APY, his cap-hit on the contract is never more than $11.6 million. I think that's part of the funny money with the bears having to get to the cash floor and all the cap space they had this year, but that's neither here nor there.

The conversations I've had over the last couple days, I've had three stops on the tour so far. I went to Arizona and then I've been in L.A. for the last couple days. The amount of just focus on we need to run the ball better because of what teams are doing to us defensively, it's come up in every conversation that I've had with an offensive coach over the last 72 hours. So many teams are getting these ads.

advantageous looks in these light boxes because they have these phenomenal quarterbacks. You look at what the Bengals face more cover two than any other team in the league last year, and they've come up a lot in these discussions. Their ability to find a run game within that really allowed their offense to click into place. The charters could never do it. They faced a ton of cover two and cover six and cover eight on early downs, and their inability to run the ball into those looks really helped them back. The Rams' inability to run the ball into some of those looks over the last couple years has really held them back.

So if the run game is going to become more and more important, are we going to get to a place where even if the running back shouldn't be paid $18, $20 million a year, should they be paid as much as Cole Komet? Has it swung too far? And I'm not sure I totally believe this because talking about the run game being healthier isn't necessarily an argument for paying running backs more. Your run game is healthy for a bunch of different reasons. Your offensive line is good.

The structure of your run game is good. Can your quarterback run the ball? I'm not naive enough to think that you just need a better running back if you want a better running game, but the running back is still part of the running game. So even if we never get back to where they used to be, do we inch closer to where some of these running backs want to be when we talk about their value over the course of the season? Here is my hot take that I've been formulating since the franchise tag deadline passed, which is that I think in two years, I think the running back, market will have stabilized at a place that is comfortably lower than where it used to be, but is still in a healthy place where the best running backs can make really good money in the NFL. And I mean, I think there was a bubble and it burst horrifically. You can thank the

Dallas Cowboys for that. You can thank, you know, you can thank Todd Gurley's falloff for that. even a guy like Christian McCaffrey who is still obviously an incredible player, how much bang for their buck did the Panthers get out of that deal? And could the Niners have afforded to do that if their quarterback situation wasn't such a revolving door? What are the Saints getting out of Alvin Camara over the last like three years that suggests that he was worth it? But, and like I'm literally looking at it right now.

Like, does anybody have an issue with Derek Henry's contract? Nick Chubb and Derek Henry, the two that I would mention. Nick Chub and Derek, like, like we were just talking about, there's funny money and there's ways that you allocated and how, where you do the guarantees. But Derek Henry is making $12.5 million a year. That's, I mean, you could argue that that's a bargain, but either way, it's a very good, it's a very good deal for Tennessee. And furthermore, would, like, would you give Seekwan Berkeley the Cole Komet deal? Of course you would. Sequin Barclay won't accept it because there's precedent that says the best running back in the league is worth much more than that.

And maybe that's part of the problem is that they need to take down what their demands on what they're asking for. And we don't know that. You know, Zeke was making $16 million a year. He didn't even get like two years into that extension, by the way, just to emphasize how much it screwed everything up. But, you know, in two years, the Camara deal will not be a thing probably, you know, Christian McCaffrey eventually he'll run out of his deal. So in two, three years, the top of the running back market will probably be $11 to $13 million. If Saquan Barkley was willing to sign whatever, 12 years, $50 million, 12 years, $52 million, I would do that in a heartbeat. Four years, four years, I said $12,000, I got my, yeah, four years.

I'm not good with numbers. Four years, $50 million, like, I would be thrilled to pay a top-tier running back $12.5 million a year. I just think bad deals done by other teams are messing that up right now. But I think in two years, it won't be an issue. Now, is that going to make Saquan Barclay or Josh Jacobs feel better about what's happening to them right now? No, but I think in the big picture, the market's going to stabilize and the young running backs that are coming into the league. Travis E.T.N. in a year or two, will be able to get 11, 12, maybe $13 million a year. and that sounds about right to me.

So I get that it's the big hot button of the day, but over the big picture next two, three years, I think it's going to be fine. There are two things I think are worth considering here. This conversation about the running back market where it's arrived, it's the culmination of it's years long as how we got to this place. But I think that culmination takes into account a different version of the NFL when the structure of defenses wasn't the same as it is right now.

And I feel like that change and where the league is kind of going and the importance of the running game kind of clicking back up, does that kind of shift things back in the running backs favor? Not a ton, but just a little bit. Are we having this conversation about a different version of the NFL that no longer exists? And I think that's one consideration. And the other one is so many people have said this. Championship teams don't have great running backs. Championship teams don't have great running backs. Look at the teams that are winning the Super Bowl.

How many Super Bowls have fucking Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes won over the last 10 years? you can't learn that much from those guys. Not every team has that sort of quarterback. So if you don't have that sort of quarterback, you need a better running game. The Browns have proven that. Nick Chubb is hugely important to what the Browns have been. And not every team is built the same.

So just because the team that's winning the Super Bowl doesn't have a great running back, doesn't mean that having that sort of player isn't important to certain types of team builds. That is, it's a pet peeve of mine and something I think about a lot is, Of course, you want to learn from the teams that are successful, of course. But people try to extrapolate so much from one-off results where a couple bounces of an enblong ball decide things. I mean, not trying to take credit away from the Eagles, but what if Brock Purdy stays healthy and the Niners managed to find a way to win that game? And now all of a sudden, a $16 million running back is in the Super Bowl. And all your data is screwed up.

And I just think people lose sight of that of like, you know, we're playing a one-off tournament where wacky shit happens by design. And yes, it is worthwhile to look at the trends and find out how winners build their teams. But I think you can lose the plot sometimes when you do that. Yeah, I also think that the Eagles, the Eagles doesn't have a great running back. You know, Miles Sanders is not a huge part of what they were. It's because of genuine hurts. Like there's context around all of this stuff. The quarterback and the offensive line drive that team,

but not every team has the quarterback as part of the running game equation. So I'm not sure how much or how far I would want to take this, but just after the conversations I've had over the last couple days and where the running game is and how important it is, I just think that we might have a stabilization and a swing of the pendulum, just a tiny bit back in the other direction. That's it. I agree with you.

And I would just say going back to what I was talking about, about it stabilizing. Like, unfortunately, for the time being, as long as the league is set up the way it is, I do think there's a cap. Like you said, you know, I don't think we're going to see running back salaries

escalate year over year the way that it's happening for quarterbacks or for receivers. You know, I think, yeah, I think 13, 14 million a year is as much as I would expect a running back to make. And that's not great. But,

I mean, again, if a guy can sign a $50 million contract with $30, That works. I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. I'm sorry. Nor should you. And I think that that's an important thing to mention.

All right. That's all we got. Dave, thank you so much, my friend. It is always great to chat with you. It's always great to have you. Appreciate the time.

Anytime, my friend. Talk to you later. All right, guys. That is all we have for today. A reminder. I'm on the road at training camps. We're going to be releasing a camp notebook podcast with people who cover all of these teams that I'm visiting every single Saturday here over the next month or so.

So tomorrow we got the West Coast swing. John Rodriguez, who covers the Rams for us, Daniel Popper, who covers the Chargers for us. And I'll be talking to John Moshoda a little bit later today when I go to Cowboys Camp. We're going to be having those every Saturday all throughout camp. So please make sure you're coming to check those out. It's always so good to check in with the people who cover these teams. They know them better than anyone else.

They know the conversation around these teams, what's going on in the building, where the weaknesses are. So love the insight that we get from all of our writers. and writers from across the industry that we are going to visit with here over the next month or so. So be sure to check that out. Football GM is also back. So please make sure to go listen to Randy and Mike. They will be coming your way on Thursdays from now all the way through the end of the season. Very excited about that.

But that is all we've got for today. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.