The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Is This Real?...with Bill Barnwell

Episode Date: September 18, 2025

Through two weeks of the 2024 season, the Saints looked like a breakout offense while the Broncos ranked in the top five in defensive success rate. One of those held steady through the entire season. The other...did not. This year, we have some of those same types of early season surprises, including the Colts offense, the Falcons pass rush, and some real Chiefs panic. What of these are real and what are simply small sample size flukes? Robert Mays is joined by Bill Barnwell from ESPN to wade through all that on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Rundown (timestamps are approximate)4:55 The Colts offense20:02 The Packers as the best team in the NFL32:18 The Bears as a lost cause45:19 Chiefs panic56:32 The Falcons pass rush1:03:13 The Vikings picked the wrong QBConnect with The Athletic Football ShowX: https://x.com/TA_FootballShowIG: https://www.instagram.com/tafootballshowYT: https://www.youtube.com/@TAFootballShowTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tafootballshowDiscord: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowCall us: 847-448-0701Email us: [e-mail]: Robert MaysWith: Bill BarnwellExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Bill on Bluesky: @billbarnwell.comFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Dan on X: @billbarnwellTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. It's an old buddy on the show today. Bill Barnwell from ESPN is here to play a little, is this real through the first two weeks of the NFL season? The NFL season lies. We know this. There's going to be some stuff that happens earlier in the year

that has no bearing on how the rest of the season is going to go. So Barnwell and I picked, I think, about six big-time storylines from the first two weeks, and we tried to decide if this stuff was real. The Colts offense, is this real? The Packers being the best team in the NFL, the Bears being an out-and-out disaster. J.J. McCarthy, was this a mistake to go with J.J. McCarthy? Is that real? So we tried to hit the biggest stories from the first two weeks and figure out what we should believe and what we shouldn't. Always good to chat with Barnwell. Hope you guys enjoy it. Let's get to it right now. Barnwell, the first couple weeks of the NFL season are always

treacherous territory. It's very hard to know what we actually should believe in and what we shouldn't. The famous example that everyone has talked about in the last week or so is what the New Orleans Saints looked like on offense last year for the first two weeks and how that was a false signal for how the rest of the season would go. So today we're going to play a little game. We've done this before on the podcast. I think after week two is the time we've done it before. We're going to play a little, is this real with some of the bigger storylines from the first two weeks of the NFL season? Yeah, I'm pretty sure I was one of the people buying the New Orleans Saints after two weeks last year.

So maybe that's not the best indicator for how this is going to go. I'm just going to say I did not realize Clint Kubiak was going to disavow play action after the first two weeks of the season when it was working at like a 50% clip for him through two games. I think there are some elements of the Saints offense falling off that were their fault and some that were not. The offensive line getting very, very injured. Eric McCoy specifically.

Eric McCoy getting hurt and then losing all of your past catchers over the course of the season. It's typically hard to feel the good NFL offense if that's the case. So I think some of that is a lesson to be learned about what we should and should not believe in the first couple weeks in the season. And some of it is a lesson about how attrition happens to football teams in the NFL over the course of the year. Yeah. And they did lose Derek Carr as well at some point in season, which the help matters. To be fair, they did lose him on for some reason Derek Carr's zone read keeper, which seems like maybe that's up. I don't know, Mays. The best use of Derek Carr.

it kind of felt like maybe they had a Tason Hill package and they'd taste some hill guy hurt. And they were like, oh, let's just use Derek. And this instead, that's not a good idea. Don't do that. Let's start this exercise with, to me, the most analogous situation to the 2024 New Orleans Saints. And that is what the 2025 Indianapolis Colts offense has looked like over the first two weeks. Through two games, the Indianapolis Colts offense number one in success rate, according to True Media, over 50% of their snaps.

They are currently sixth in offensive DVOA over the. those first two weeks. The Indianapolis Colts as one of the best offenses in the league. Is this real? Yeah, I'm going to go know on that one. I think I'm going to try to have learned my lesson. But maybe let's talk about why I think what we saw from the Colts is not sustainable. Because even if we're going to have a conversation about the Colts and not being the best offense in football, I don't think we can be smarter than that. We don't have to have that conversation. Is this going to be a good or maybe even very good offense? Moving forward.

Would you change your answer to the question if that was the framing? No, I would not. Okay. I am skeptical for a few different reasons. I would say this much. First and foremost, is there anything in the cult's performance that is not sustainable to me? The answer is yes. Daniel Jones, in terms of the way he's playing, the efficiency with which he's playing,

totally unprecedented over the course of his career. And I will give you one thing here that comes to mind. That is sort of the starting point for all of this. He ran an 8.5% sack rate during his time with the New York Giants. It's not of a great offensive line for the vast majority that's banned. But if you watch Daniel Jones play, you know that he was also responsible for a fair number of those sacks. He is at 3.1% through two weeks, Mays. He has not turned the ball over.

No interceptions, no fumbles for a guy who had major fumble issues. earlier in his career. He's not taking sacks, which may be leading to, not having as many fumbles. I don't believe Daniel Jones has turned into Josh Allen in terms of avoiding negative plays. Just not something you do overnight like that to solve your problems. And that manifests in a couple ways. Number one, it makes it less likely that you're going to end up in negative game scripts, which has been something that the Colts have been playing from ahead or playing from a relatively close margin against the Broncos and the Dolphins the first two weeks of the year, which really helps. And then I think you're not put into negative game scripts and aren't in a

situation where those plays are more likely to happen. Because when you are trailing by 10, 14, 21 points, teams can pin their ears back and come after you. The run game is not a threat. And you're more likely to be throwing frequently enough that you're going to throw interceptions and turn the bowl over with fumbles. So I think a lot of this is game script. A lot of this is just an incredible avoidance of negative plays. I just don't see how that keeps happening for any extended period. Like what about Daniel Jones do you think has changed to make that more likely to be the case moving forward? It's a great question. And I forgot that you're an interesting person to ask this question because of how you've watched Daniel Jones over the last like seven years of your life.

I'm not saying with one hand over my eyes for the vast majority. I'm not saying that makes you an unreliable voice on the subject matter. I'm just saying it does color the way that you're going to look at this. Thank you for bringing me onto your show, deciding what the topics are, picking the Colts first and then saying you're not a reliable source. That's on you. That's not on me. I didn't really think about that as I laid out how the rundown was going to go, but I do think it's at least worth mentioning.

I understand where you're coming from. I'll present this to you. So it was an 8% sacrate with the Giants with there were some years. And we've talked about this a lot on our show. The 2023 Giants offensive line is probably the worst offensive line I've ever watched since covering the NFL. So let's just say it lands somewhere in the middle. It's not 3%.

it's not 8%, it's 5%. He just takes like a normal sack rate over the course of the season. If I told you that, that was going to be the case over the year where he finished 16th in sack rate or like 20th in sack rate over the course of the season.

Would you choose to believe that the Colts could be a top 10 offense? I still don't because on top of all that, Mays, we're looking at a quarterback who has played one full season so far as a pro who's got an interesting Every single year. Their backup is a top five pick.

You know, there is a, sometimes you try to go back and say, okay, what was the logic that was happening here? And there have been times where teams have just been totally off. Like, I remember there was, was it Joe Germain? Was he the quarterback on the 2001 Patriots who was not Drew Bledsoor, Tom Brady?

I think there was like a real conversation about should we play? Or was he with the Rams? Just not the Kurt Warner Rams. You're asking the wrong guy. Sorry, I didn't realize you were not on your Joe Germain. I was in middle school. I'm not sure what the dynamics.

of the backup quarterback situation were for the same, for the Patriots and the Rams back then. We're talking about a situation where for weeks in the preseason, at least publicly, there was a legitimate conversation about should we play Anthony Richardson, the least accurate quarterback in modern NFL history by adjusted completion percentage or Daniel Jones, who apparently is now the NFL QB1. Like, it just, that seems to reinforce that maybe even the Colts not expect Daniel Jones to be anywhere near this good through two games. I'm already scared before I even say this, but I'm going to say it anyway. I do think it's kind of real.

And I think it's real to this extent. I do not think the Colts are going to finish number one in offensive success rate by the end of the season. I do not believe this. I think they can be a back app of the top 10 offense over the course of the year. Sell me. Sell me on this one. I believe, and I said this coming into the season. We tried to lay out what success looked like for the Colts.

and in my mind, success for the Colts was every other aspect of the offense beyond the quarterback is so undeniable, including the play caller, that you have to stick with this group moving forward because of how many strengths there are. And I do think that all those other facets are very strong

and I think you've seen that play out over the first two weeks. In week one, they're hitting a ton of chunk plays down the sideline against a Miami Dolphins secondary that is a mess. We all know this, right? Like the outside corners for the dolphins, there's a lot left to be desired. That is not the case for the Broncos. You know, Riley Moss is whatever Riley Moss is,

but you have the defensive player of the year on the other side. The Colts past catching group is so deep and so varied that wherever your weaknesses are, they can pick on them and they have a play call or an offensive staff who's capable of devising that sort of game plan. And you look at what Josh Downs was doing from the slot in this game. You look at what Tyler Warren was doing. They essentially circled Brandon Jones and the linebackers. And they were like, This is what we're going to do today. And we have such dynamic pieces at every single one of these spots that we are capable of attacking you this way.

The Broncos are not the dolphins. I'll take it one further. They hit mesh. You know, I'm going to bring a mesh on the show. They hit mesh on that third down and set up the game winning field goal with Alec Pierce on Pat Sertan and completed it and hit it. Like, they were even willing in the right spot, not just we're going to blindly throw it the best cornerback in football, but when they got the right opportunity, they were very

comfortable throwing at Pat Certan and had some success doing so because it was only going to be in very specific man situations where they had man beaters on. I just think that they have truly, in my opinion, the deepest group of past catchers in the entire league. I think they go five deep with this group because I just don't think there's another team where your fifth option is capable of doing what A.D. Mitchell can do to you in one-on-one situations outside the numbers. And then what Jonathan Taylor has been for them in the past game over the first couple games, not just as a receiver, but in past protection in week one. That's why I think the sack taking,

even if I feel like some of that is on Daniel Jones, I think that just the, how tightened up the past protection with this group has been over the first two weeks, even against the Broncos and a Dolphins front that has a lot of talent. I think there's just something here. And the entire argument for Daniel Jones

coming into the season was, all we need him to do is be a point guard that is pretty accurate and doesn't make mistakes with this group because we feel so strongly about the other offensive talent otherwise. And I think with the amount of motion that they're using, 66% motion rate for the Colts this year is about 55% last year. This is an offense that is very consciously being built through the pass catchers

and has enough offensive line talent to justify that level of past catching talent. And so even if they're not going to be great and even if we're going to see some swoons from Daniel Jones over the course of the year, I kind of am buying the supporting cast enough that I think they can be a definitively good offense over the course of the entire season. I will agree with you in that people underestimated how good their receivers were. And when I was doing my playmaker rankings before the season, I kept wanting to put them higher and higher because I kept seeing reasons for, well, they had, and I don't want to

dwell on this, the least accurate quarterback in modern NFL history, the highest off-target rate. Once you got rid of the off-target throws, they were playing really well. and I don't put the off-target throws, obviously, on the receivers running the wrong routes. If it's once or twice, maybe it's the wrong route. If it's every single week, five times a game with the same quarterback, it's probably on the quarterback. And so I can certainly see the argument there. The concern for me is just, you mentioned how the past pros improved, but that's been in either a super positive game script or a neutral game script.

That has been when they have been in situations where they've had the thread of the run, even if they're not going to be running a ton, which I think they've run a fair amount, but they have not needed to be in drop-back passing situations. We are down 10 points. We're down 14 points. We have to throw to catch up. We were in third and long. And you can sustain a season without that for the vast majority of the time.

Look at the Broncos last year with Bo Nix, right? Like that was an offense where they were playing basically hide the quarterback on third and long in a drop-back passing situation. So when they got against the Ravens or the bills, it was a disaster because those were good teams and they were playing from ahead and the Broncos had to catch up. Do I think Daniel Jones can thrive to that level? Sure, but that's the 16th best quarterback in football or the 16th best offense in football. But the Broncos had Cortland Sutton and like nothing else. This is a very different situation with the talent that we're talking about among this group. They had a much better offensive line than I think the Colts offensive line is.

I think it was very good. I still think the Colts offensive line clears a certain bar where maybe they're not the number one pass protection group in the NFL this year, but I think they could be the eighth best. Are you surprised they've lost Ryan Kelly and what? will fries and haven't really skipped a beat? I am a little bit, but the comparison I would make, remember last year when we were all freaking out about the Ravens, where the Ravens were going to have multiple new stars along the offensive line, and we were all like, oh, my God, how's this going to go? And they had a historically good offense over the course of the year.

There are some teams that I think have done a very, very good job of creating like an offensive line ecosystem in their building where they've been able to sustain attrition, turnover, guys getting hurt. And I do think the Colts with Tony Sprano Jr. and with that stats, I think they've kind of gotten to a place where you should trust them a little bit with the offensive line. Like since Steichen got there after that nightmarish Frank Reichier with Matt Ryan, the offensive line has once again definitively been a strength of this team. And so they kind of earn the benefit of the doubt to me. So I'm not necessarily that shocked because of the recent history that we've gotten with this team.

Yeah. I mean, Bernard Raymond coming through, I know, for a guy who was a project coming into a league was a mess that first year with Matt Ryan. and that final year at Frank Reich has been obviously a very good left tackle. This is also a defense argument for me, though, because the Colts defense, you tell me if you think this is sustainable, Robert Maynes. The Colts are last in the NFL in pressure rate and have the best QBR of any past defense in football. Yeah, that's probably not sustainable. LATU didn't play last week, though.

Do you think they're able to keep that up? No, I don't. You think Latu Lattu is fairly Micah Parsons to 2.0. I'm grasping at the straws here. That probably will not happen, but I do think that the offense, I have reasons for like real definitive optimism. There's one sequence in the second half that I just wanted to talk about that to me like really speaks to this. I believe this coming into this season to an extent and I think you've seen it on full display this year. I think that beyond the depth of the talent with the past catchers, the skill sets fit together like a puzzle.

Like it's perfect, like what they're bringing to the table. You have Pierce as this like vertical outside the numbers player where you can just chuck it up to him and he makes plays done each of the last two weeks. You have Michael Pittman, we know what he is. He's like a slasher over the middle of the field. He's like, it's like a mid-range jump shooter in like basketball context, right? Like he's very good in that area of the field. You have 80 Mitch who, again, I think is just a phenomenal like outside the numbers like break you off sort of player. It's a very simple skill set. But when they have to tap into those one-on-ones, he can do it. And then you have Josh Downs who, we'll talk about a second. To me,

he's like one of the most dynamic receivers in the league when you put him in the slot. He's an incredible football player. And oh yeah, Tyler Warren now fills in all the gaps that would have previously existed with this group. And so you have this. Everybody talks about this where they want their receiving core to be a basketball team with all these different sizes and skills and everything else. It's exactly what the Colts are doing.

There was a two-play sequence in the end of the first half in that game where on a third and three, they do a little whip return with downs coming in motion where he just puts the corner in an absolute blender. I think it was Riley Moss. They hit him in the flat first down. On the next play, they hit Alec Pierce on like a 45-yard, 50-yard chuck down the right side line. Like, it just, you see it.

You see the vision how it's all supposed to come together. And so, do I think they'll be the best offense in the league? No. Do I think they could be the eighth best offense in the league? I kind of do. I know that sounds like maybe crazy, and I may regret this very quickly, but I kind of believe in what's happening here.

Do you believe enough in Daniel, for that to happen. Absolutely not. I can see the playmaker argument. I'm willing to give you the benefit of it out in the offensive line. I'm willing to believe that Jonathan Taylor could be a top five back. I think he is. I just don't know that I trust that guy to be the guy we've seen.

Even the guy last week, who was not the guy gets the dolphins who was on an insane heat check. I don't trust him to be that guy for 17 games. Maybe I'm just scarred. Maybe I'm an unreliable narrator to quote someone else in the show. But I just, I have to see it for more than two weeks before I believe it. Yeah, I absolutely do not believe in Daniel Jones, but I'm choosing to believe in everything else and that everything else might lift him enough where this can be a good offense over the course of the year. I may regret this very quickly, but I'm saying yes to this one to an extent.

If you were saying average, 16th, I'm with you. If you were saying 12th, I mean, I wouldn't be with you, but I can at least see the case. You're saying eighth, I'm sorry, I can't. Back half of the top 10, I'm willing to believe it. Let's get to the next one here. The Green Bay Packers are number one in offensive and defensive DVOA through the first two games of the season. They look incredible.

Are you, is this real? Are the Packers the best team in the NFL full stop? Not only what I say yes, I find it hard to formulate an argument against it. It's tough right now. What case would you make for the Packers? is not being considered the best team in football through two weeks. I really don't know. I mean, maybe moving forward, you're a little bit concerned about, like, the Jaden Reed injuries,

Zach Tom's banged up, does the offense maybe fall back to Earth a little bit? I think that's probably where I would go with it, but I don't think it's an argument I believe. Yeah, but like at the same time, they played last week without Aaron Banks and Zach Tom. They had Jaden Reed for, I got hurt in the first quarter of that game, if I'm not mistaken. I got hurt early on. don't have Christian Watson you can make the case that's going to hurt them moving forward

if they don't have those guys but reads out for a while but Tom's coming back Banks is coming back they were dominant without those guys if they didn't skip a beat without any of those guys and on top of that

they've done this against one of the toughest schedules in football two very good teams to start the year by the vast majority of projections I know I'm not as high on the commanders as anybody else but I still think they're a good team the Lions the great, sorry, against the Bears the week later.

Oh, we'll get there. We will. You know, I just, very little reason for me to think that this offense is suddenly not going to figure things out or suddenly collapsed earth. If anything, you'd expect Josh Jacobs to be a little more explosive. They've had, having had too many big plays in the run game, which we know Josh Jacobs can do. They've had plays that, you know, that Jaden Reed corner for a touchdown got called back last week. That could have been, you know, they have more big plays and they know what to do it in a strange way.

We've seen Jordan Love be this guy, if not in the first half of the year, for extended periods of time. And then you flip it, the biggest concern for this team on paper was the cornerback room. And it turns out they added the best possible piece to make their cornerbacks lives easier. And not only doing that, it's also seemingly made the other players up front better as well. I mean, since Micah Parsons showed up, Lucas Van Ness looks like he's all-prefax. hybrid pass rush. It's been incredible to see how quickly even a Micah Parsons

who's not playing every snap has really just taken that defense to the next level. I can't see an argument beyond just, oh, they're the Packers and they'll fall back to Earth. In terms of what they're actually doing on a play-by-play basis, I don't see anything that isn't sustainable or isn't backed up by what you're actually seeing on film.

Yeah, I really like a lot of what you said. and I'm buying it too. I pick them to go to the Super Bowl. Like I always thought that they had a gear that was not yet realized, and I feel like we're realizing that gear. And what you said about the offensive line, I think there are some things with this Packers team where I appreciate the way they've built the roster.

I appreciate the way they go about building the roster. But every once in a while I kind of roll my eyes a little bit, and I'm like, okay, guys. And part of it is the flexibility that they're seeking out with some of these players positionally and what it gives you in terms of depth and just answers to certain problems that are going to occur. part of me is like do we really need all the offensive line to play three positions do we really need all the dbs to be able to play every single position and you're seeing right now the vision

with some of that stuff starting to come together you mentioned Aaron Banks and exact time not playing in that game well Jordan the two guys they had step in for those players they had a left they had a left guard who was a former first round pick last year and then the right tackle that they had in Anthony Belton was a second round pick this year like that is the depth of this roster is that they can go to those guys when their starters get hurt. And so I think that is the argument for how they've built the offense. Jordan Love, the one area last year was really tough. Man coverage, third down, volatile situations.

They've been phenomenal against man coverage this year while seeing it, it's still a 50% clip. Based on what they did last year, you'd expect teams to try to challenge them in that way, and they've answered the bell throughout the first two games when teams have tried to do that. On defense, I think what you're saying is perfect. Because the Micah Parsons thing slots everyone into different roles. now Roshan Gary becomes your number two past rusher,

and now Lucas Van Ness can just kind of be like a big athlete, and that's what Lucas Van Ness is. And the other thing it does, it also, because you have those two guys that are credible edge rushers, you can bump Michael Parsons inside. You can just play all these guys in all these different positions in the way that they want to, but now it's an actual realized idea

instead of just this theory about how we want to play. And I'll say this about the defensive backroom. I wasn't worried about it coming into the year. Like I felt like last year those guys acquitted themselves just fine. And so they go out and get Nate Hobbs in free agency. He doesn't even play. He's like a spot player right now because Kishan, they feel so good about Kishan Nixon and Karenda Valentine.

Nixon was incredible on Thursday night. And he's another guy where he's 28, but this is only his second season as a full-time outside corner. And so to see his progress and what Valentine brings them, I think he's an underrated player, like what Evan Williams and Bullard and McKinney and just like the depth that they have at those safety spots and then what they're doing at linebacker like Quay Walker and Edron Cooper have real players who is he's not a real player he's a freak he is like he is one of the most exciting players to watch in football full stop Edger and Cooper in terms of a week-tweet basis what you're going

to see from him what you're going to see him do even attempt you know just an absolute phenom of a football player. And that really, even last year when he was playing on a part-time basis and then got more run the second half of the year, that began to make that defense better. That defense in the first half of the year, more turnover driven. Like they were, you know, they had some hot stretch of takeaways, which isn't always going to happen. And they couldn't rely on that happening this year. But their underlying level of play was significantly better with Edger and Cooper on the field. And he looks like a superstar linebacker, like not just a breakthrough guy. He is already at that level to me.

And Quay Walker was really coming along in the back half of last season as well after coming back from injury. And I think Brian Kunkun said before the season, the only reason they didn't pick up his fifth year option is just it doesn't financially make sense because they're outside linebackers in that number. And so they're already talking to him about an extension. He's playing very, very well. One of the things that I really stuck out to me when I was there at training camp, it was my second to last stop, I want to say. And talking to somebody on their defensive staff, we were talking about DeMarcus Covington, who's their defensive line coach. And just they changed out defensive line coaches after last year because they think. felt like that group, even with all the investments, underperformed.

And something that they said Covington was bringing to the table is he's just very, very smart when it comes to devising offensive line games or defensive line games and stunts. And watching that game against Washington, that's what really stuck out to me. It was how dynamic the pass rush feels. It's not just about dropping Michael Parsons in there. It's about having like real defined plans for how you're going to create these matchups for everybody. And the other little detail of it, the other little wrinkle, I thought they did a

phenomenal job of accounting for Jaden Daniels as a scrambler. Because on all of these stunts, one time it was Kobe Wooden, one time it was Devante Wyatt, where you have, a lot of the stunts were inside between the tackles. And so they're between the, with the three interior guys, sometimes that's Parsons, sometimes it's a lineback or whatever. And by doing that, you're creating a little window of space in essentially the B gap immediately at the start of a passing play. And Jaden thinks he has a little bit of a window to run.

And then immediately one of those guys is appearing in that window. They did such a great job of taking those rush lanes away while not defanging the aggressiveness of the pass rush. And that is the best example so far to me of the fact that's an extension of what we saw last year. Jeff Hathley's fucking good at this. Like he is a very good defensive coordinator and now he's got horses. And so it's really hard for me not to be excited about what we've watched over the first couple weeks. Alex did it even further. You look at how the cornerbacks played in that game against Daniels.

It's one thing to tell people, you know, tell your cornerbacks, like your cloud corners or your guys playing in the flat, have eyes on Jaden Daniels. It's another for them to actually do it routinely snap after snap after snap and then tackle Jaden Daniels. And they were able to do that. It felt like the entire defense, whether that's because the commanders don't have people who scare you, which is a different commanders conversation. But like when they were in zone, they did such a good job of slowing on Jane and Daniels. And man, he was three of 11 for 26 yards. Like, you know, if you can get away with playing both kinds of coverage because you have a freakish pass rush and you have a great defensive line guy or coach, you know, just scheming stuff up, it just goes a long way. And I mean, like, you can make the case, okay, haven't faced a, I guess the commanders were a really good run team in week one.

Maybe they haven't faced sort of a rushing alliance or also a really good front team too. Like the run defense would have been a concern to me heading into the year. That has not been the case. Maybe it's just Jordan Love is going to turn the roll over three times one game a month and that's just the reality of Jordan Love. If that's the case, okay. But that's true for so many elite teams in the NFL. If that's the only thing holding the back, I'm not concerned about that.

You're not buying what Jerry Jones is saying that Kenny Clark is the greatest run defender of all time. This is going to be a problem for the Packers? I mean, T.J. Sladen was number one in run-stop with me last year. He actually is a very good run in Federer. They did trade. But again, I think that that's the depth we're talking about. The Kobe Woodens of the world, Wante, Wante Wyatt, all that stuff. I'll throw one more thing out there. This team was third in DVOA last year.

It's not like this is a team that was 10th or 12. They were good. They were already really good. And now they added Michael Parsons to the youngest roster in football. They are a really good football team. All right. We're going to take our first quick break and then come back with another team. in the NFC North that I'm not quite as excited to talk about.

Let's do this. Through two games, Chicago Bears are dead last and defensive DVOA. They look like a disaster in several different ways through the first two games of the Ben Johnson regime. Is this real? Are the Bears a lost cause? We're in week two, week three.

It's been, it's been two weeks, fans. Do you, here's the thing. why are you asking me? I'll answer the question in a second. You're the guest. This is the mechanics of how the conversation works. Thank you for explaining conversations. Nobody cares what I think about the Chicago Bears.

Everybody listening to this wants to know if you believe the Chicago Bears are finished after two weeks. It's really funny that people just thought I was trying to get out of the show on Sunday night because I didn't want to talk about the Bears. One, it's like I was dealing with a very real medical thing. I was a member of my family. So I appreciate everyone that handled that, by the way. truly the every note I haven't talked about on the podcast yet.

Everyone's fine. Everything's great. We're back to normal. But I just thank you for everyone who reached out. And thank you to Beller and Dave and Derek for picking up the slack. But I did not skip the show because the Bears played poorly. Do you know how many poor Bears games there have been in the 15 years I've been an NFL podcaster?

If I bowed out of the show every time the Bears played like shit, I wouldn't record half the shows. So don't worry about that side of it. I was on Diana's show or. earlier today. I was on Scoop City with her and James and they asked me, you know, are you panicking yet? And I said, no, I'm not panicking yet. Am I concerned? Yes, I'm concerned. There's that Mullaney bit where he gets a subpoena for his emails for his landlord in college and he gets a note from his friend and says, you should be concerned.

That is how I'm feeling right now. I am concerned. There are elements of this that are worrying. This defense is not a unit that should rank dead last in anything. Consider the resources that you have pumped into it, the free agent money that you've spent on and all that kind of stuff. I will say this. I've used this example a couple different times of the defense specifically.

This may be cope, I'm just throwing it out there. Two years ago, Vance Joseph, former NFL head coach, I think an objectively good defensive coordinator in the NFL. In week three of the 2023 season, the Denver Broncos gave up 73 points to Miami Dolphins. 70, 70 points.

How much was it? It was like 72. 73 is the record. They gave up 70 points in an NFL game. That's the point, okay? They gave up 70 points in an NFL game. They were not some disaster. They played poorly the week after against the Bears in the back half of the season.

Defense locked down. By year two, they were one of the best defenses in the league. So the two weeks into the year, there's so much volatility to this that I don't necessarily think we should be searching for the nearest high thing. Okay. I think that there are elements of the defense that are concerning. I think that Tremaine Edmins continues to play in a worrying way to me. The way they defended perimeter runs in that game was an extreme concern.

I think some of the things that they were doing from a pass rush perspective with some of the simulated pressures and all of that combined with the fact that they were seeing play action half of the dropbacks, which on those play action snaps, they were playing the run the entire way they're getting absolutely no pressure. I think there are certain aspects of the defense that will get better. And so I don't think they're going to be an objective. bad defense all year, even without Jalen Johnson. So that part of it, I think that there are better days ahead.

We can talk about the offense in a second, but the defense has actually been the worst part of this through two weeks. Yeah, I mean, the Lions looked lost in week one and looked like the best version of the 2024 Lions in week two. And the tough part for me is sort of evaluating what's likely to improve. Because now, at some point, you're going to get Caller Gordon back. And Calder Gordon is a good football player. That's going to make your life easier.

But now you're also losing Jalen Johnson. He's out indefinitely with a groin injury. Probably for this season. You think for the entire season? It sounds like it. It sounds like there's a chance he misses the entire season. I mean, that's traumatic. Like, teams have been picking on Tyreek Stevenson for almost a full year now with a lot of success.

And I think there's an element of- That's the problem is he's not going to stop playing. Tyreeingson's going to be a part of this even when Jaylon Johnson heard. Right. That's, I think, the point I'm getting to is that you can't really play whack-a-mole with the problems when more problems are popping up. I do think the patch rush is going to be better. I think there's enough pieces there.

You know, I feel like this is... My opinion on Montes-Swat stays the same, but everyone else's opinion changes dramatically. Like, I think he's a good, maybe even very good at times, edge-rusher, and he is alternately like the biggest disappointment in NFL history or the best 2A edge rusher at the week after the trade in Bears history.

He's not either of those guys. He's fine. I think Diwa Dainbo is fine. I think there's Gervyn Dexter, I think it's an underrated player. But I do think they have the ability to get pressure with Ford.

And if you have that, then I think you have the ability to get better. They should have the ability to get pressure with Ford. They have not done that yet. And again... I think they will.

I think they will, is what I'm saying. Again, I think if you go back and you watch that and just how many play action dropbacks we're seeing with a ton of guys in protection. That's what I think that leads to some of the pressure numbers that you're seeing. And I also think that Mata Sweat specifically, there were only like 10 or so non-play action

dropbacks in that game. He's dropping in a coverage on one of them. He's for some reason trying to get a hand on Jemir Gibbs in the flat on another one. It's like, Dennis, I know what you're trying to do here. Let's just like rush four or five and like play a man on third down. Like let's just like let's just make it a little bit simpler here. And so again, I do think this is a new defensive coordinator feeling out a new unit. we see this all the time.

That's my point, is that I think that process improves as you sort of figure out, okay, what can we actually do on game days? What can we actually pull off? Where is this defense at, especially post-Dalen Johnson, like, what can we do in the back-end that we feel good about coverage-wise? And I think that process takes some time. But at the same time, like, this defense looked phenomenal for half a football, maybe even three-quarters of football in week one.

Like, it's not as if they've been, I was looking at the 2007 Giants and how bad they were the first two games earlier. They allowed 80 points through the first two games of the year. It's not like they've been horrific for the entirety of the first two weeks of the season. And so I do think there's a game script element to this. Like, I don't know that they're going to be a great run defense. And so if they are trailing and they're playing a team that is a terrifying run-and-play action team, they're not going to be in great shape. That is not going to be the strength of this team.

But I think if they can play from ahead, I think they're going to be okay. The problem maybe going to the offensive side is that they've not been able to get ahead. I will say about Tiger Stevenson before we move to the offense. There are moments where it's been rough over the first couple weeks. The first play, like the first chunk played on Monash, St. Brown on the first drive, Amman Ross St. Brown is an incredible football player. Like what he did in that game on Sunday, there's nobody else in the league at receiver

that can do what he did. If you watch the play specifically, he had a first down on a run from the shotgun on third and five. he blocked two guys on the Jamir Gibbs touchdown run on the first drive. And just the way he moves, he's a one-on-one type of player in how the lions use him. And that was like a symphony that he put on on Sunday. Another big play against Tyrick Stevenson, this to me was like the game completely personified. So there was a sack by Montez Sweat when the game was 7-7 that gets wiped off by a very ticky-tack illegal contact penalty.

On that drive, I think it was the next play, they had a chunked on a moment, Ross St. Brown with Stevenson bailing out into like a funky cover two look and Grady Jarrett dropping. And there was no one in the middle of the field. It's like, that's the type of shit where I'm like, guys, we are overthinking this stuff. Like I get wanting to make things hard on the quarterback. We are overthinking this stuff. You think about how excited you would be, but the Grady Jarrett robber interception of Jared Gopsoe. No, no, no. It's not. The cost, the cost benefit analysis there is not in your favor. The offense right now, I, leave that game on Sunday far less worried than I was after week one.

The offensive issues to me are much more about overall sloppiness than they are about something endemic about the offense overall or even the quarterback. The downs and distances they were facing in that game, you know, the interception that Caleb throws, it's an unacceptable decision, right? It's an unacceptable decision. But it's second and 32. He had three or four truly horrific throws in that game. But that doesn't mean the other 25 or 30 throws were all terrible.

Some really tough choices, including that intercept. That ball just got to go out of bounds. But he's trying to make a play on second and 32. Down to down, I thought he had some of his best moments as a professional football player on Sunday. Some of those in-breakers against zone coverage that he's just ripping on time, some of the intermediate outbreakers that he's thrown to Rome a Doonesay on time. I was really encouraged by the way that he played.

And I know the running game, the stats don't look very good. I actually thought the run game on Sunday on non-zone runs, the line and the structure of them was fine. the back is bad, right? Like that day one DeAndre Swift contract from two years ago is still one of the more inexplicable and unacceptable choices that's ever been made in free agency over the last five years. You and I, when we were doing free agent pods in like 2013, every single contract that came

across was like, that's a mistake, that's a mistake, that's a mistake. That happens way less now. The DeAndre Swift is the exception to that. And so I think the offensive line needs to play better. Brexton Jones, as he gets healthier, I think we'll see that sort of in But I do think that we are not veering into disaster territory just yet on either side of the ball after going back and rewatching that game. I agree. And not only you should listen to me because I'm an idiot, but people who are a lot smarter than me agree.

I think Ted Wynn has come out and said a similar thing. JT.O. Sullivan has come out and said similar things. Our friend Nate Tice has come out and said similar things. There's been generally people going back and watching that tape, myself included, have found a guy who was, getting through a second and third read, who was... Moving through progressions at a really nice clip. Really nice. Yes.

And not like doing it in a mechanical fashion. Like in a organic, I'm actually operating like a quarterback. I'm not just bailing after my first read isn't there kind of way. And that's all great. That's what you need to do. That's not something that I think is going to disappear after a week. I do think that is being drilled in on a practice level. And being drilled in, that's what we have to do to thrive.

We cannot do, we cannot not do that and survive. I don't know that I can get on board with you when it comes to the run game. So they have a 33% success rate on design runs, which is 30th in the NFL. And to me, that is, if you want to pin that entirely on DeAndre Swift, I'm not going to be opposed. But I do think that is the thing that underpins a lot of these problems. Because you're right, they are in second and long and third and long way too often for this offense to survive. We just saw how bad the lion's offense was with much better players to me and a much better offensive line in week one when they couldn't run the football.

We saw JJ McCarthy get significantly better in week one the moment the Vikings started to have more success running the football in the second half of that game. I don't think this offense works without a good running game. And if you want to put the blame on that on Dandre Swift and to a lesser extent on Ben Johnson, I think that's fine. But I don't think anything changes until the... that run game is passable. It's not to be great, but at least has to be vaguely threatening and more consistent than

it's been through two weeks. I don't disagree with that. I will say, I think that some of the zone runs have been issues that Jonah Jackson thinking out, it was a hold or a TFL that he gave up on his own run earlier in that game on Sunday. On the gap scheme runs, there is space. Like, I do think that there is, there are brighter days ahead for those numbers with the run game.

I think I'd like to see somebody that's not DeAndre Swift running the ball. That was the case coming into the season. And the fact that they did not address it to me, is one of the more worrying parts of how they handled the offseason. But I do think structurally it is not as bad and definitely was not as bad on Sunday as some of those numbers would lead you to believe. That's where I land with that. Yeah. But if you're saying, okay, leaning to more gap scheme runs, that's not DeAndre Swift to me.

That is not where you're going to get. Just give me more Monagai. I don't care at this point. I would like to see someone else run the football. For best ball purposes, I would love Kalmanangai to be the lead back for the Bears. I don't know if Caleb Williams past protection would love Kyle Monongai lead running back for the Chicago Bears. To be fair, DeAndr-Juith has been horrific in past protection as well. I was going to say, I don't think you're getting much worse than what they're getting right now.

Let's get to the next one here. The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2. Okay? We've done this a million times. It feels like over the last four or five years. Not 0-2, but I think we've had the like, is it time to worry about the Chiefs thing? So many times over the last four or five years. And every single time it's like, I guess,

not they'll be fine. Is this real? Is it really time to actually worry about what the Kansas City Chiefs look like two games into this season? For now, yes. For the next few weeks, yes. To me, I mean, like, again, if you're the Chiefs, if you're Andy Reed and you're sitting here building a game plan for week three, what's the thing you believe in?

Nothing. That's the problem. There is nothing you can lie. his offense, you can go back on two and say, this is the thing I know we can do. Pat Scramble. That was it. That was it. The first half of the game was just spam Pat Scramble.

Anytime Pat gets man and someone takes a bad rush, we are out. I don't think he was even looking at his first three. I think he was just out the first chance he got. And that's not, you can't build an offense around that. You can't build an entire offense around Patrick Mahom scramble. And the problem for me is, okay, well, the design run game has been terrible. They're 24th in EPA on design runs. 27th in rushing success rate on running back runs right now.

27th in rushing success rate. They're not hitting a ton of explosives, more than they have the last couple of years, but they're hitting... It's not hard to do. It's been three, I think it's been a couple of deep taekwon tournament. You know, great. You need that to factor in.

But this is an offense that the last three years has been, I think, first or second in third-dead conversion rate. I think right alongside the bills. And they've been significantly better by EPA on third down than they are in first and second down, which makes some sense. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. He's going to create some stuff out of nothing. I don't think they're just not bothering to care until third down, but there's an element of like, you know, they are a team that historically does not seem to really put pen to paper until it's deadline time.

Not that I know anything about that or what that would be like. But they're 26th and third down conversion rate this year. And it is a small sample. It's only two games. maybe, you know, four or five third down conversions, changes them for being bad to good. But there's no reason to think they're going to be good on third down. What is the playmaker, the player who's going to make them good?

I mean, it's supposed to be Kelsey, right? And I think that, yeah, I think you had a couple like Kelsey Mahomes mind meld moments in the passing game on Sunday that was really all they could turn to. And I just think those are happening much less frequently than they used to happen. And the explosiveness we knew was going to be a problem without those receivers. But even when they weren't explosive over the last couple years, they were at least consistent and efficient for the most part on offense. They were 11th in rushing success rate last year.

They're 27th right now. On non-scramble so far this season, where do you think Mahomes ranks in success rate? Not high. Fifth from the bottom. Here are the guys with a worse passing success rate than Patrick Mahomes on non-scrambles this year. Cam Ward, J.J. McCarthy, Aaron Rogers, and Jaden Daniels, who just played against that group of banshees that we were talking about in Green Bay. Those are the four guys. That's it. So they have not just not been explosive. They haven't done anything well. It's been really, really hard to watch. And even things they used to not be able to do to this team. Right? Like, oh, we can't blitz some homes. Can't blitz my homes. Dead last and drop back success rate against the blitz through two games. Dead last. And maybe that's a little bit of a curve ball. that Fangio's throwing at you, but it's still, like you said at the top, there's nothing

they can turn to right now. It's weird to watch. Yeah, I mean, so they, what they did post-Perry kill trade is leaning to 12 personnel, lean it to 13 personnel, get more tenants on the field, dictate defensive matchups, create opportunities for Kelsey to be up against linebackers or isolated against players they wanted to exploit and help out the run game. They have a 35% success rate with 12 personnel this year. They're at 48% out of 11 personnel. And it's not like they have great wide receivers in the field right now.

So when we first started this conversation, I came out and said, for now, because I do think, ideally, Rashi Rice is going to make things better. I do think whatever version of Xavier Worthy they get back is going to make things better. But we haven't even talked about the defense. And like Steve McNeill is blitzing

at the third highest rate in football. He needs to. He needs to. He needs to, number of, Number one, and number two, I think they're 23rd in pressure rate on those blitzes. Like, that combination for any team, the chiefs are not an exception here, if you're blitzing that often and you are failing on blitzes that often, you're hopeless. There was no chance of you succeeding on defense if that's going to be the case.

Yeah, I think last year, they were able to be a bad defense and still be okay because the offense could control games, right? the offense was capable of maintaining possession, shortening the games, bleeding games out, and that's why they were able to win ugly. Like we just alluded to, they're incapable of controlling the ball. They were ninth in offensive success rate last year, even with all the issues that we were talked about, that we talked about all the season. They are not there right now.

They're 20, again, 27th in rushing, and the Pat Mahomes has, non-scramble is the fifth worst dropback success rate in the league right now. So they are not maintaining possession the way that they did last year. And the other part of this that worries me is that when I watch that game on Sunday, I rewatched this morning. they got punked in terms of the physicality from the Eagles defense, the entire game. It started the first play where, or the first drive when Cooper DeGine just dumps Hollywood Brown coming off the line of scrimmage.

And that happened all game, whether it was McCuba. There was a two-play stretch when the chiefs were driving. I can't, for some reason I can't find it in my notes right now. But there was a two-play stretch where J-Links Hunt specifically dumps J-Lewan Taylor back into the backfield as part of a TFL and then roasts him for a pressure and gets a holding call on the very next play. And that's the issue here is just that those things that should be things you can rely on where you're paying a guy a ton of money to be your right tackle, you can't rely on that.

You can't rely on the run game. Noah Gray is getting pushed around in the run game. So even if you're trying to go into those bigger sets and be more physical, you're not able to tap into that. It's just everything they want to try to do or they might have been able to do in the past doesn't seem like a viable avenue for them right now. And I think part of that is just this is not a physical team. On both sides of the ball, it's not a physical team. And I think you're feeling that. If you're not going to be explosive, you better be physical.

Yes. You need one or the other. And it's tough because to me, and I talked about it's a little bit on Twitter with Stephen Ruiz and Jeff Schwartz is the one thing we've always wanted to see from the Chiefs and Andy Reid, especially when they had such a great interior offensive line, which I think it's still fine, even though I think Sue Mitei obviously is a downgrade on Joe Tunney, but design run game, under-centered design run game, gap runs, stuff that's not just shotgun zone stuff and not RPO's, like getting into that more often. I don't know if they'd be good at that at this point. I don't know if that would even work, if that play action offense off of that would work.

I don't know if you can install as much of that stuff as you might like overnight. I just, it doesn't feel like there's any of those things we talked about. You can't rely on that. You can't rely on that. I don't see why any of those things would get better beyond playing worse teams. And maybe they'll have some games against bad teams. I don't know who they're playing this week. So there wouldn't be any reason to think that they're suddenly going to turn things around.

But it's just they don't seem on the level with Chiefs teams from years past, let alone the best teams in football right now. Also, people are going to say, you know, Mahomes hasn't played while either you think about some of those misses. And he absolutely did miss Taekuan Thornton on that throw. He missed Noah Gray on a corner out early in the game. The problem is you feel those so much more because the margins are so much thinner. You have no margin for error based on how the offense is playing right now. And it's funny, it reminds me of just like what it was been like to watch Bears' offenses in the past where like any opportunity you have down the field, if it doesn't connect,

you're like, well, it's over. That was it. That was like the one shot that they had in this game to hit an explosive play. And when it doesn't happen, you feel it so deeply. And that's what the chiefs are right now. Yeah. Do you, do you have to guess where Patrick Mahomes is in Cuba? through two weeks.

Well, the scrambles throw that out of whack. I'm in probably like 25th. He's fourth in QBR through two weeks. Oh, my God, that's insane. I'm not, I'm not saying. I don't know how QBR works. I don't know how much it weighs the scrambles. That's hilarious.

QBR is obviously something we're a fan of, but put it this way. I don't think Patrick Boholmes is the problem. I don't think you're saying he is the problem, but people are going to be screaming at their computers or their phones is what I'm saying. It's like, oh, he's missing all these throws, whatever. Like, he missed a couple, but like you feel them so much more deeply because of how this is going. You're right. We don't have to believe that, though, to be clear.

I want to make sure that that is not the official stance of Robert May's William Barnwell enterprises about Patrick Mahomes. We're going to take one more quick break and get back with a couple more of these. Next one here, Barnwell, on Sunday, the Atlanta Falcons had a 53.3% pressure rate against the Minnesota Vikings. That is their second best pressure rate game of the next gen era, which goes. goes back to 2016, okay? The Atlanta Falcons have like a top five defense by DVLA through the first two weeks of the season.

Yeah. Is the Atlanta Falcons pass rush real? That's better. I mean, it is, it is not the worst pass rush in football on a regular basis the way it's been in years past. I, I'm skeptical it's this good. I'm skeptical they're going to be as effective. They're second in defense of VVA, by the way.

Jesus Christ, they're second. If only the Packers are ahead of them, sorry. You know, when you watch the Falcons, you think this is right up there with the Micah Parsons Packers as just stifling opposing teams. They're better, and they should be better, right? I mean, you use two first round picks on edge rushers.

There was a stat I found at the end of the offseason, and I was mad. I found it for Minas Show, and I was mad I didn't find it earlier. So we just talked about QBR in the prior segment, And I recognize that maybe there were some people who did not love what QBR found about that, Patrick Rollhoms. But last year, the Falcons had a 96.7 QBR when they blitzed. That is not just the worst rate in football.

It's crazy. It was the worst rate of the QBR era, which goes back to 2007. That was always going to get better, whether they added two first-round pass-wresters or not. This year, they are seven. They have a 35.3 QBR with the blitz. So they're blitzing is better. And they're not blitzing a ton, but when they blitz, it is more successful. The part that I don't believe, the part that I find different.

to sustain is this. So there are 12th in pressure rate, which is fine. Like, I could buy them being the 12th best pressure rate in football in terms of pressure to sack rate. So how often do you turn your pressures into sacks? They were 28th last year. They are fourth this year. That is a major leap forward. And that is the part I think I find tough to sustain. Maybe they will keep it up. They've played two quarterbacks who frankly are pretty good at least Baker Mayfield's pretty good of the voiding saxon is under pressure as the Texans found out on Sunday in a very key moment. But I just, I just find it hard to believe that they will be able to keep this up in terms of how good they've been at getting home or finishing once they get home.

I think some of it is real in the sense that I really like what the pass rush plan has looked like from Jeff Ulbrick and that defensive staff over the first couple weeks. They have the bodies to make this interesting. Okay. when you have Jalen Walker and you have Caden Ellis specifically, Walker Ellis Divine Diablo, they have linebackers who can blitz. And so I think that there's going to be some of that

where we're going to be mugged up. We're going to do all these twists and games with these very like bodies. I mean, there was one pressure when it was Caden Ellis, Jaylon Walker lined up in the A gap and the B gap. They run a little twist. Walker comes completely untouched. Like that's what you want to see. Like those two guys, you can weaponize them in the past rush game.

You mentioned Diablo. You saw week one, he had three quick pressures in that game just by attacking the interior of the line. Where it was Michael Jordan and Ben Bredesen, who, you know, you have a guy just coming in to play guard and the guy moving over to center. Like, that's where you should be attacking. So maybe you're not going to get the same results, but at least there's a logic behind this is what we are trying to do against the weakest part of that Bucs line. You've got to unleash the linebackers as part of this. Because I think that while the edge rushers are explosive, you don't see many one-on-one edge wins with this group so far. even James Pierce's sack that he had in that game, that's a stunt where he's looping inside.

Jaylen Walker did have one against Justin's school, right? So when you're not playing, and they were picking on, again, this is just good coaching. A lot of those stunts came on the left side where you have a rookie left guard, you have a backup left tackle for the Vikings. Let's pick on that as often as we can. They had two unblocked sacks in that game. You deserve some credit for that, right? Like based on how you're lining up, based on the stressors you're putting on the offensive line,

you're making them wrong in terms of how they're trying to pick some of this stuff up. So I will say I've been as impressed with the plan as I have been with the individual players. And if you can make sure, and the Vikings have struggled to run the ball so far this year pretty consistently, if you can make sure you're stopping the run and early downs, getting into some of these second and eighths, third and sevens where you can unleash these sorts of plans, I do believe in the overall explosiveness of the group. But I do, like you've said a couple different times on this show, that's a lot of game script stuff. Like you've got to make sure you're putting yourself in the right situations in order to to realize the best version of this group collectively.

One thing that does sort of seem telling to me, at least right now, is watching that two-minute drill against the Bucks and what they chose to do against Baker. And that could be a schematic thing. That could be a week-to-week thing. But they were blitzing a lot on that final drive where they hit, um, Mickey Ibuka on Mills for a touchdown on the deep post. I don't, doesn't mean you're going to blitz every key situation, but I don't know that they trust their patch rush to get home with, with just the front four right.

now. I think they need, they feel like they need those linebackers to make a difference, and they should. There's nothing wrong with that. I just wonder if they need to be able to rush with just their front four at some point, just to say, oh, we can do it. We're not just sitting stuff up. We're not just relying solely on the linebackers to make this work. I also think part of this is if you can rely on your secondary a little bit more to play man coverage. That's the next thing I was going to bring up, which is that AJ Terrell is now dealing with a hamstring injury, and that does impact things in terms of how much you trust your cornerbacks. They played a shitload of man against the Vikings, and I think that if you have a

group in the back end where you at least feel decent about their ability to hold up in those situations. And now I think based on the flashes you've seen from some of the young guys, like, if Billy Bowman's going to play like this when he's playing man coverage, that allows you to be a little bit more aggressive with how you're attacking teams up front if you want to send a linebacker or two. So I think the back end will inform the front end and vice versa. And through the first couple weeks, I actually think the returns have been pretty good. I think Oldbrick has done a very good job. Yeah. I mean, the question is like, do you think they're going to be a solid pass rush, which would be...

Yeah, I think solid is where I would put it. If the secondary can stay healthy and you can play that much man, I think solid is where I would put it because they have so many explosive bodies they can throw at the pot. But Caden Ellis has always been this sort of player. He's a really, really useful player. I think there is a version of this team that can be like, I don't know, slightly above average.

Like, if you finish 12th, then pressure rate, if you're the Falcons, I do believe in that sort of thing. I think, again, it's going to be dictated by how games go to an extent that it's not going to be totally situation agnostic, and I think that puts a little bit of a cap on it. Let's stick in that game from Sunday night for the next one here. The JJ McCarthy experience has been uneven through the first two weeks to be generous, right? I will say this. So I did not watch that game live because, like we said earlier, I was dealing with something family-wise when that game was happening. I was working, I was working, so I don't watch a live as well.

I watched it Monday morning. So I watched this morning. And is it crazy to say that I actually don't think he played that bad? Like, I really don't think he played that bad. I think he played poorly. He played poorly. But this idea that he was unplayable, like this is like a total out-and-out disaster. We cannot put him back on the field.

I don't get that reaction to it. Like, I truly don't think he played that bad to incite that response that I think some people were throwing out there after the game. I mentioned this on my podcast this week. I feel insane because I saw JJ McCarthy in week one. I know you were there alive. I'm sorry. I watched from home.

I thought he was kind of meh. Not great. I don't think everything that happened in that game was his fault. I don't think everything that succeeded was by him. I thought it was insane. He was NFC player of the week. People were furious. There are lots of really mad comments.

It's one of the dumbest things that's ever happened. It doesn't matter, but it's so dumb. Pucco went 10 for 1.30 while bleeding from his face. Truly, we could name three quarters of the offensive players in the NFC, and we would be in the right side of history. But week two, I watch them, and I'm like, well, a little worse. Like, didn't have that really hot stretch in the fourth quarter, because I never got the run game going.

And I kind of think he's still figuring things out. Not all that great. Needs a lot more help than maybe Viking fans would like. And now I feel like I'm defending him. because people want to benched. They're like, oh, it looks like the ankle injury is now. Proof that he's being soft benched. By the way, soft benched maze for Carson Wentz, who showed up a month ago.

What are we, it's just two games into his career. What are we doing? Yeah. Our brains are broken. My thing about is this real was the, is it real that the Vikings made the wrong decision to quarterback? And so I think your response through two games is, no, this is not real. Like, let's take a breath.

that's kind of where I land as well. How could we even know through two games? I mean, think about where Bo Nix was after five games last year. You had a worse first down rate in the passing game than Deshaun Watson was having, where Deshaun Watson was actively ruining the Cleveland Browns. And Bo Nix, by the end of the year, I'm not the biggest Bo Nix fan by any means. He was fine. They were a playoff team with Bo Nix, not leading the way, but not dragging them back

with both arms either. He was fine. So I think if you were a Vikings fan and you thought JJ McCarthy was going to step in and be Kirk Cousins from two years ago, you were disappointed, that's fine. I don't think that should have been

the expectation to begin with. I just, I don't think we can say. And what I think we can say for sure is that saying they should have brought back Sam Darnold or that they made the wrong decision with that is so difficult because it's not J.J. McCarthy versus Sam Darnold. It's J.J.J. McCarthy and $30 million to spend elsewhere on your roster versus Sam Darnold.

That's right. And Will Fries and Byron Murphy versus... J.J.J. McCarthy, Will Fries and Byron Murphy versus Sam Darnold. On a team that, by the way, Mays, they had seven, I believe, undrafted guys make their roster. That's not because they hit on the greatest undrafted free agent hall of all time. It's because they don't have a deep team because the cap has been a mess for years, because Quasi's first draft was a disaster. I mean, that is a team that needs to spread money around. And that's why I think they went into this broader idea if we have to get a young quarterback

because we have been basically just borrowing future cap money to pay Kirk Cousins, try to get that situation done. I think they had to reset and start over. And going back to Sam Darnold would have just put them back in the same Kirk Cousin cycle with maybe a slightly higher floor, trading it for no upside and a significant financial cost in the process. Yeah, I'm not going to like go back on it now. I supported the decision that they made for everything that you just said. Like this was always how it had to come together financially. And I just, I don't think he's been bad enough over the first two weeks to like start

dismissing all of that and being like, I don't know, that was a mistake. If you go back and you watch the first half, like that drive where they get inside the five and it ends up, they end up having to kick a field goal, he's like ripping throws on that drive. The completion of feeling on that deep out, the outbreak her to nail her to get them inside the five, and then they botched two plays and they have to kick a field goal. There's some. That's week one. He throws the pick six on the Jefferson throw, which, by the way, Jefferson came out after the game and said it was my fault, broke off my archery really.

Later in that game, he robs a deep out on the other side of the field, which is a perfectly thrown pass. It's not like he can't make that throw. He made that throw later in the game. Yeah, I also think that there are some structural issues here to talk about. the left tackle being a backup left tackle has been a consistent problem. And I think some of the things they're trying to do, they're helping out the left tackle so often that if you watch some of these play action concepts, they're not getting enough guys out into routes in order to disrupt some of those

second level defenders and open up some of those windows. And so I understand trying to use more play action and make things easier on your young quarterback, but they're making it difficult on themselves because of what they have to do in protection. So that's one element of it. The other side of it is I think that teams have thrown a little. bit of a curveball against them early in the season. And I don't think that Kevin O'Connell has reacted well. I feel like there have not been enough answers for how teams are playing against them. So last year,

among quarterbacks who had at least 300 dropbacks, Jared Goff was the only quarterback in the league who faced less cover one than Sam Darnold. It was 15.3% of dropbacks. So far, through two games, 34% cover one man against the Vikings. They are challenging the quarterback. They're saying we are not going to we're going to make you fit the ball in the tight windows consistently. And I just don't think based on the way the Vikings typically play, like stacks, sponge is motion. Like they are very good when they know man coverage is coming in like man coverage situations on like third down. But as teams are thrown a ton at them,

I just don't think the game plans have been tailored to attack man coverage. It was the same problem they had against the bears for the first three quarters. And so I just think that there's going to be a general settling of a lot of this stuff and the left tackle is going to be back soon. And so I'm just not at a point where I'm like, this was terrible. I can't believe they went with Jason McCarthy. The season is over.

It's going to take a little bit longer before I get there. Yeah, there's going to be, settling is the right word. I think this thing is going to shake out in a way where they're going to find stuff that works in the run game. And I think that might just be as simple as just more Jordan Mason, as opposed to Aaron Jones, who's now on IR with the hamstring injury.

I think getting, I mean, replacing a replacement level left tackle with a maybe in a good year pro bowl caliber left tackle in fishing. I think absolutely pro bowl caliber. Yes. Well, he's kind of back from an injury. So, like, maybe that's the stuff like I say. I'll take him at 70%. I've gotten in trouble with you throwing percents out there before.

I don't want to do that again. I mean, it's a major upgrade for this team, no question. And the interior of that line, the thing that we were counting on getting better, have played two games together. I guess Wolfrises and Ron Kelly have played together more often. Ryan Kelly's hurt now. But like, Donovan Jackson's two games into his pro career. And that line has not had any reps together.

So they're going to get better running the football, passing things off, running zone concepts as the year goes along. That's all going to improve. I just, if your concern is that the JJ McCarthy is a limited quarterback who needs a lot of help around him to succeed, that's not unwarranted. But that's something you should have no business on. Yeah, that's the thing.

And so I think that they're still figuring out what their identity is going to be, having shifted from a very past happy attack and early downs, having shifted from a team that was not investing in the interior of their offensive line. Like, they're finding out what they are and that's going to take some time. And doing that while you're integrating a new quarterback who has not played pro football before is going to make it even tougher. I also think that there was always likely they were going to take a step back. and the win lost column, obviously, but even in just like the general quality of the team and what the expectations were coming into the year, even if you thought that Jason McCarthy could come in

and be the 15th best quarterback in the league, in my mind, it was always going to be about 2026. It was always going to be about building up to that season and his second year as a starter. And that was going to include some growing pains. When you consciously take a step back as a franchise, it's hard to deal with. It's hard to deal with it as a fan base

because you're like, wait a second, they're worse? Like how, what are we doing here? But the goal is not to be incrementally better than you were the year before every year. The goal is to win the Super Bowl. And so I think if that is the goal, everything that has happened over the last six months, I don't think pushes me off from the idea that what they've been doing is in the best interest of that eventual goal.

Right. And that's sort of the Sam Darnold's side of this conversation, right? Like the idea of we should have just brought Sam back. They tried to get a deal with Donald Sam. I don't know what the terms of that contract were, but clearly he left to go to Seattle. Think about how right things went last year for the Vikings. They win 14 games with Sam Donald and quarterback.

He has a 95th percentile season versus expectations. Like, he is really good for stretches of the year. Their defense is phenomenal. Second in football, I think, by EPA per play. But certainly, if not second, in the top five by every metric. creating a ton of turnovers, really good. They didn't even come close to winning a playoff game. They've got destroyed.

Let alone, let alone making it to the Super Bowl. If that's what your ceiling is with Sam Darnold, like, how was it going to be better this year than it was last year if they had brought Sam to back? It wouldn't be, because if you're going to pay Sam Darnold, then there's no Will Fries or Ryan Kelly. Right, like that's how this is going to go. And so you're always going to have to rob Peter to pay Paul.

I think because of that and because you had to go to the young quarterback, there were always going to be some frustrating moments early in the season. It's always going to happen. Bill Barnwell, sincerely appreciate the time, sir. Please tell everyone where they can check out all of your wonderful work this season. ESPN.com. Written stuff is going up there. I am hosting the Bill Barnwell show twice a week. We got the idea for me.

We started putting it on YouTube this year. We realized it was a good idea. So we started doing that. Yeah, I started YouTube. I was the first, we were the first podcast ever on YouTube. We, I'm doing the Dominique Foxworth show every Sunday night. So you can check that out Monday morning with myself and Charlie Kravitz, Dominique Foxworth, overreacting to what we just saw on Sundays, occasionally on TV.

Who knows when and where. But just trying to keep track of football. Just trying to keep my head above water. I feel like I'm already behind and we're two weeks in. So off to a great start. That's absolutely how I feel as well. I mean, that's always how the beginning of the season feels. I trust you to get there, buddy.

Always going to chat with you. Really appreciate the time. We will talk to all of you tomorrow. Our week three preview will be coming your way. Like Barnwell mentioned, if you're watching this on YouTube, please like and subscribe to the channel. Would sincerely appreciate that. We're doing all of our Monday and Thursday night recaps on YouTube this year.

So if you want to check those out, this is where you can find them. Obviously, coming to you live from the studio for our Sunday Net recap shows. couple more shows throughout the week. So have enjoyed the beginning of the season so far and all the new stuff we're trotting out. Hope you guys have as well. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon.