The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - It's prediction time! Super Bowl, awards, division winners, and more

Episode Date: September 8, 2022

The 2022 NFL season is officially here! We've previewed all eight divisions. We've broken down all the offseason moves. We've surmised about all the trends that could be coming our way over the next six months. There's only one thing left to do...make predictions! That's exactly what Robert Mays and Nate Tice do on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. The guys offer up their picks for the Super Bowl, MVP, division winners, and a whole lot more.Join the TAFS picks poolFollow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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that the league was never going to be the same. Whatever you're bold enough to try, Visa has the power to help bring your game-changing ideas to life. Visa. Anyone can change the game. This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today's Thursday, September 8th. I'm Robert Mays.

I'm Robert Mays. It's my good friend Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? If you're listening to this podcast, it's game day. It is game day. It's game day. And we got fresh cameras. I know I'm saying to two things of people listening to it.

We have fresh cameras for those who are going to be watching us on YouTube this year. Because, I mean, we, I didn't know I had this many pores. I'm definitely happy I've been moisturizing this summer. But I'm really going to make sure I have to shave for every live show, make sure everything's in order. Hydration, everything's going to be good on those Sundays because these cameras are top quality. We found out the answer to how many morons it take to set up two cameras over the last 24 hours, which is a fun little experiment. For those of you listening on Thursday morning or really any time before Thursday afternoon, we're going to be doing a live show at 3.30 p.m. Eastern time. with me, you, and DeAte Lee today.

Previewing week one. That is going to be the schedule throughout the season. Every Thursday on Thursday afternoon, that preview picks show that we did last season, that is now going to air on Thursday afternoons. You guys will see why I think it just allows us to do it on YouTube. And also, we're going to do more reactions to the Thursday games this year. The Thursday slate is very good. Amazon kind of put their finger on the scale with being able to pick those games.

Chiefs Chargers is our first. first one. So we're going to have a reaction to tonight's Thursday night game between the Bills and the Rams. That's going to be on our YouTube channel. If you have not subscribed to the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel, highly encourage you guys to do that. We're going to have a ton more YouTube content coming your way. Live YouTube shows, standalone YouTube content. It is going to be flowing this year. So please go subscribe if you have not. We're going to have a Rams Bill's reaction live tonight. So you'll be able to watch that on YouTube. We're going to have our live Sunday night show this Sunday after all of the games.

So be ready. You guys are going to be seeing us a lot more than you probably want to this year. Yeah. And this is just week one. I'm really excited for that week 12 slog, you know, right before the holiday games, right? Usually like early mid-November when some teams have fallen off already. You kind of know, maybe a coach has been fired. You know, maybe that'll spice things up.

We don't have Urban Meyer this year. So that kind of helped us out a little bit, the mid-season slog. But right now, we got some energy for this. I think it's going to be awesome. It's going to be loaded. It's really going to be loaded. I'm so excited for all the stuff that we have coming up. You're going to see a little bit more of me on this nice fancy video and a little more of the audio stuff as well.

So that is going to be our preview show a little bit later today with Deonté. But before we did that, we wanted to do some awards and predictions. We have not done that on the show. We wanted to get this on the record before the season actually kicked off and we decided to spin it off into its own show that you guys are going to. to be getting this morning. So let's get into it. We went through all the division previews. We did not pick winners for those divisions.

Probably should have. I don't know why we didn't at the end of all of those shows, but whatever. You're getting them now. That's all that matters. It was best case, worst case. And then it was like no statements to put a bow on it. It was just like, yeah, whatever. It's just like those are all the situations that might happen.

So part of the reason I don't do it is every August or so, like mid-August, early September, people always like, who do you think is going to win the Super Bowl? Every time I'm at a wedding or at a social event, it always comes up. And I always respond with, I've got like two weeks before I have to answer that. I always push it off as far as possible. This year was worse than it's been in a while. I had a very hard time figuring out who I wanted to pick even for the final four. We'll get into that.

But we are going to kick this off with our division winners and start with the division that you and I previewed a couple weeks ago now. And that is the NFC North. Who is your NFC North winner in 2022? I was tempted to go with my childhood team. Very tempted to go with the Minnesota Vikings. What were their odds? I believe it is plus like 150.

Okay. So not that great. 240, plus 240. 240. 240. Oh, that's a little spicy. I might put a little something, something on that.

But my actual pick is I pick chalk and I pick the Packers at minus 155. And I really do, even if I had some, well, now they're my eighth best offense. but originally my 11th best offense or 12th best. But we recond that. Just slowly creep it up. Slowly but surely. Next time you hear this, they'll be fourth.

And then that's what I'm just going to slowly move them up. But I recond them to eighth. But I really do like not just Aaron Rogers, of course, and the head coach and the offensive line coach and the offensive coordinator who was the offensive line coach, but also the defense, just the pieces they added, both the draft and their younger guys getting older, whether it be the defensive line and the DBs. But I think it's more of a complete. team, even if they are losing Devante Adams, who's an absolute star, it's a more complete

and whole team. The scary thing, actually, I think about the whole team is we got to still make sure the special teams are okay because that has been a huge thorn in their side in Green Bay. But other than that, Aaron Rogers is still there. I saw him in practice. He looked great. LeFleur is still there. You know, I'm still going to bet on them.

I think it's a pretty easy slate in the NFC North, even if the lions are going feisty. And we are a little more optimistic about the bears than maybe we thought a month ago. And I think you and I are both more optimistic about the Vikings and a lot of other people are way more. But I have the Packers as well. That defense top to bottom, I think is just going to be really good. This team didn't have Jaira Alexander all year last year. Having a top shelf cornerback, we love their DB group.

Not a ton of depth. I think that's a question on defense in general and especially on the back end. But their players in the front seven, they've bulked up there with the guys they drafted. And the offensive line getting back healthy is so important. And it does look like both Bokhtiara and Jenkins are on track to play very early in the year. And with the depth they have there and the pieces along the interior, this is a bet on Rogers is in the floor and it's a bet I'm willing to make. The biggest blemish I had with them was their offensive line.

And look at the depth they had, the preseason, they look fine. They look, but we're more than fine. And then your hero, Zach Tom, was looking good at the rookie racetrackle. And he's not even starting for them day one, which is a good thing, I think, is that they're not forcing them into the deep end week one. and they can let them come along. So they just have the pieces that make sense. Last year, we did a pod and we were talking about maybe the best rosters in the NFL,

and we said the Packers, I want to say the Broncos was another team. There was a few. But we mentioned the Packers and we were like, wow, why is Aaron Rogers so angry with this team? A lot of those guys have come back and matured. And it's another year of growth and jelling together. It's a good, like, very sound team. I think I understand what they're trying to do on offense as well. Yeah, they're receiving talents, obviously, a question.

Yeah. You'd hope they just cobble it together. Lizarre is hurt right now, which is something to consider. I mean, already a thin group and now they potentially lose him at the start of the season. Aaron Rogers said, your receiver won. He looked around, you know, like the Will Smith Giff, Fresh of Bel Air, Fresh Prince of Bel Air. He's looking around. Who else is in here?

Well, hey, I know your name. Come on, Alan. Your receiver won this year, but hopefully he gets healthy. Well, I just can't wait for Sammy Watkins to catch like four touchdowns in week one and they never be heard from again. So that's going to happen this week against the Vikings. All right. Let's get to our next one.

here. NFC East. Who do you have winning the NFC East? I wanted to go Eagles, but I can't help myself. I went with the Cowboys. I went Cowboys. I can't quit back. I can't. I can't. It's so hard. And he's, his name's going to be mentioned a couple times by me on this show. But I'm going Cowboys plus 150. I know. I know the old line blemishes. I know Gallup is coming back from injury. I know like, okay, they force feed Zeke a little too much. Defense might regress, but I'm also pretty still optimistic about the defense being very good, maybe not that number one turnover heavy team, but a really, really good defense that can get after the quarterback. I just can't. I can't bet against Dak, even as much as I like this Eagles team. I'm going to save my Dallas takes.

I'm going to keep them in the chamber for right now because we've got a couple spicy bets that we're going to throw out a little bit later in the show. Dallas is one of mine. I got the Eagles. The Eagles are plus 130 to win the division. I think they're rightfully the favorite to win the division. Even if you have concerns about J-1 Hertz, that roster top to bottom in the the improvements that we should see from them. Not only AJ Brown, but some of the guys they added on defense, I think that team has a chance to be really good. I think Bull Wolf said something when I was at Eagles Camp that I thought was particularly

smart and incisive. He said, even if J.1 Hertz is the guy that he was last year, this team can win 11 games based on the additions they made elsewhere. And if you program in some development from J1 Hertz, which everything that I heard when I was there, even some of the comments publicly, Shane Station, their offensive coordinator, came out this week and was just talking about how much progress hurts is made mentally and how quickly he's going through some of those progressions and just the steps he's made playing quarterback.

And I really believe even if they're incremental steps, even if we get to the end of the season and the ultimate conclusion is the Eagles need to be better at quarterback, I still think they can win 11 games this year. Right. Just because the rest of the roster. Yeah. I mean, that old line lifts your bar. It really does.

It raises your bar. And the defense, they made the playoffs last year. We got to keep remembering. They made the playoffs last year with Jalen Hertz, who we thought was incomplete. And the first half of the year, we thought they were kind of whatever, kind of, you know, just hanging out, like just a duck on a pond. But I think they really improved throughout the year, and Jalen Hertz did as well. So I understand why the optimism about the Eagles. I'm optimistic about the Eagles.

I'm excited to watch that team. There's so many fun players, Jordan Davis at defensive line. James Bradbury that they signed up the scrap heap. They got him from the Giants. I don't know, just these all these pieces. And C.J. Carter Johnson, every single area of their roster that we were worried about is better than it was last year. Yeah.

Underlying areas of the roster. I know we've become a joke at this point, but Zach Pascoe being like your fifth receiver now and just the different kind of flavors they can have to their receiving core, I think they've done a really good job building this team. I'm excited to watch them. I am too. And they still got Devante Smith. They still got Taoist got it.

And they got this guy named AJ Brown. I don't know if everybody's heard of them. But yeah, he's a slightly big fan. I'm a fan of his work. I've been a big supporter for a while here. All right. NFC. West, who you got?

I couldn't believe it. I went with the Rams plus 125. It's very, very hard. It's just hard to feel good about anyone else. Really? Really? That inevitable Super Bowl hangover and just the human aspect kind of creeps in. You get to the mountaintop, inevitable letdown,

but I just can't really throw anyone else in there because of the uncertainty with the Niners. Yeah, that's exactly how I am. Man, it's so funny that the signing of Jimmy G. Like the re-signing, I should say, or it just made me feel worse about the Niners. in a weird way, even though he was the quarterback that led him to the M.C. championship game last year. And they have Trey Lance, but it's, I don't know. I want to figure out what the hell they're doing before I kind of like, anoint them as much I am. We're going to feel so stupid when Lance goes for like 150 rushing yards and five total touchdowns against the Bears on Sunday.

And this was nothing. This was all just a whole bunch of, it was just really what they're honestly saying that's like, no, we just wanted him in the room and everything. We can remember, this 40-n-n-air's defense is going to be sick. That's the thing. We'll get to that a little bit later. So if this defense is sick, Tray Lance is, you know, even if Tray Lance is average, but he runs around a little bit, he gets that Jalen Hertz level. That's just, and I think Lance has way more potential than Jalen Hertz. Who, like, I get it. And you never know what Stafford's elbow.

That's the other thing. That's also the thing that's going to be hanging over this team until proven otherwise. So if you went 49ers at plus 160, I would, I wouldn't bat an eye because I totally get it, but it was just hard for me to get away from the Rams. We'll get into our wildcar teams a little bit later. I have the Niners making the playoffs. All right. NFC South. One with the Bucks.

There isn't much to say here. They're minus $2.50 to win the division. They have the best division odds of any team in the NFL. I know Chalk is boring, but I think they're significantly better than the teams they're playing week and week out. Yeah, I'm optimistic and we're talking about them in a sack. But I'm higher on the Saints that I was a few months ago, but still, it's the Bucks are a very, very good football team. Even if they've had some O-line injuries and everything, they still have Tom Brady. All the receivers seem to be coming back.

Russell Gage, Godwin will be coming back soon. I think they're figuring out what they are, and I think it's going to be a damn good defense as well. So, I mean, that's a good Bucks team. They still have multiple plus starters along the offensive line. It's not like they have this in Tatters offensive line where there's so many questions about all of these spots. The interior is definitely a step down from what it was.

Ryan Jensen is a very good player, but I don't think it's this 28th best offensive line in the league that is this glaring red flag that we have to be worried about. maybe it lowers their Super Bowl ceiling, and we should start thinking about that. But as far as the division goes, I think that they're a lot better than everybody else that they're playing against. AFC North. Ravens plus 145. I'm very high on the Ravens this year, just the stuff coming back from injuries throughout the whole team. The guys like Ronnie Stanley back.

He was back to practice this week. Yes. If Dobbins can come back and Gus Bus can come back in the running back room, I'm high. and Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews. I love that pairing. Of course, you get after those two, you kind of, there's some question marks with throwing the ball, but you get a healthy, motivated Lamar in a contract year. He might be, you know, going gangbusters this year. And I like the defense. There's a lot of fun pieces on that defensive, in that defensive backfield and defensive front. So I really go with the Ravens. I do think it's going to be tough between them and the

Bengals, but I do think Ravens are more of a complete team with a very, very, very good quarterback. Yeah, I have a lot of faith in the improvements that they made personnel-wise up front. and in Omar having a huge year and what they're going to look like defensively. Still some questions. You know, we've never seen Mike McDonald do this before. Their personnel has changed over. I think the style of defense they're going to play is significantly different. I was tempted to put the Bengals here, but I just feel like the Ravens have such a high ceiling.

I think the same thing. I really do. I really do think they have a high ceiling. I'm pretty high on this team. And I just find kind of temper it back a little bit because I think I was going really, really high, even a month, even higher than I think I was right now about a month ago where I was like, oh, they're going to blow them out of the water. Now it's like, oh, they'll be very competitive.

I'll stick with that. AFC East. Chalk, bills. Yeah, that don't be there's much to say. They're the best team in football. Yeah, that's, then that division is kind of a weird division this year. AFC West. Chiefs, Chiefs plus 170.

I am very high in the Chiefs. I think this team is a very, very good team with a very, very good quarterback who has a huge chip on the shoulder. And I think as a whole team, getting back. to the basics is going to be a very good thing for them as far as just game plan-wise, use of personnel. I am really excited to watch this offense and watch this kind of new configuration, which is also old configuration, but also watching this defense too. I think they have more pieces on this defense.

So we're not going to see that bottom falling out. Oh, my God, this is an all-time bad defense. I think that at least they'll be average, even if not better. So I think this is a very complete team. They have the best special teams coach in the league. I really am high on the chief. So I think they're going to take that very. very, very tough AFC West at plus 170.

I'm a little bit more skeptical about the defense than you are. I think they're relying on a lot on a lot of young guys. There's a lot of moving parts. They're taking a step back on that side of the ball and retooling a little bit. I think the Chargers top the bottom are a more complete team than the chiefs are at this very moment. When J.C. Jackson ultimately gets back, the amount of money and resources they spent on bulking up the entirety of that roster, even the right side of the offensive line, like everything

we were worried about with this team, the connective tissue with the run defense. I'm excited about them. I know, make all the Justin Herbert jokes you want. I'm ready for every single one of them. But I just think this is their year to be right there in the mix in the AFC. I think this is their year to win the division. I wouldn't be surprised at all if by the end of the year, the Chiefs were a better team than they were. But I think over 17 games, I just think this is the year where the charges are going to take a pretty big step.

I have them at plus 2.30 when their division. And I totally get it. Like, AFC West, I can see the arguments that people have for these teams. Like, I'm not, it's not one of those like, are you kidding me? You know, and you're also, the hardest thing to have is having an elite quarterback and Herbert is one. And, you know, it's only year three for him. What if he just gets, it takes another full leap forward, you know, a whole step forward. Like, what if this is just the Herbert year?

Yeah, it absolutely is in play. He just goes nuclear and wins the MVP. That's absolutely on the table. So I am so. ready to get crushed again. I am so, so ready, and I'm putting it on the table right now. I have the Chargers winning the division. All right, AFC South.

Colts, minus 140. Another podcast favorite, the Colts, yeah, but I had to go with them minus 1440. I was tempted to take the Jags. What are the Jacks odds? Because I also would have taken a look at those. Jags are plus 750. That's my favorite long shot of all of them. Just because I think it's one of the most wide, I think it's the most wide open division

outside of the top team. And I don't even think the Colts are this hyper-elite team. I just don't love anybody else. So plus 750, if you're feeling frisky, that would be a very fun pet to lay down. Yeah, you never know of like squeaking in with a nine and eight division winner. You know, they could be that division where they beat up on each other and they lose to better divisions. They kind of go 500. You kind of just never know with this division.

So that's why if you're just looking for good money bet like right there plus EV, however you want to look at it, I'll say with that with the Jaguars, especially at that. price. Matt Ryan's like 36 years old, 37 years old. I mean, we're one or two things away from getting eight or nine games and Nick Foles. And if that were to happen, I think the Jags might be next in line to take the division. So I like them at plus 750. I think that's a really fun bet. All right. Wild cards. NFC wild cards. What do you got for me? NFC. I have the Vikings at plus 260. I really like that bet. I, I, I... So these are, these odds are to make the wild cards specifically. I just want to make that clear. Yes. So, by,

Vikings are plus 260 is my first one. Do we have, no, we do not have the same. Then I have Eagles plus 250 because I, I, I'm a deck guy. And that, that's how my math works with this one. And then it's hilarious. I said, oh, I could see the Niners winning the division. And now I don't even have them in the wild card because I'm like, this is what happens to me.

I don't want to go away from my original gut feeling. So I have the Saints at plus 310 to make the wild card as well. I can, I can see the argument for the 49ers, but those were the three I ended up going with because in this canon that I'm building with this season, this all makes sense to me because otherwise I can't reconfigure my Saints take to get the Niners take in there. So I have Vikings, Eagles, and Saints. There are a lot of through lines with the takes that I'm going to have throughout this show.

Because you have to. You have to stick with a certain theme. So I have the Vikings at plus 260 as well. I think their offense is ready to be good right away. I had them, pretty sure I had them in my top 10 offenses when we did our top 10 offenses show. If I didn't, I meant to. I think that they're right there on the brink. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the season ended and the Vikings were seventh in

offensive duty away. It wouldn't surprise me at all. Their offensive line, I think is the big question there. I do think there are young players in that group. I think that they're potentially ascending. I also, in talking to people there, they feel good about that group. They feel genuinely good about that Fives' ability to kind of keep things on the tracks for them.

Kirk Cousins is perfectly fine. In a good situation with the right pieces around him, he can be a hyper, efficient quarterback. I think he's in a good situation with the right pieces around him, with the skill position talent that they have, and with the staff and the system that they brought in. So if they're a really good offense, I think their defense has, you know, fairly high floor, like middle of the road. That's a playoff team. The seventh best offense in the league and the 17th best defense in the league, I think that's a wild card team in the NFC, and that's where I have the Vikings. I also have the Saints. I just think the Saints defense is going to be

really good again if they stay healthy. I have so much faith in the defensive ecosystem and infrastructure that they've built there over the last few years. I've said this many times. They're one of my favorite, if not my favorite defense in the league to watch. Even losing Gardner Johnson, they have a ton of depth at that position. I think they're built to sustain losing him and relying on the other defensive backs that they have.

I think their offense, it's hard to overstate how much better the players are than they were a year ago. Even if you're concerned about Michael Thomas, having Michael Thomas and Chris Olavet and the offensive line being healthier, even with Trevor Penning out, getting James hopefully for most of the season, I still think they have a chance to be a decidedly above average offense. And if they're a top five defense again, which we know is more fragile, but they've consistently shown that when they're healthy, they're really good. I'm betting on them compared to some of the other teams in the NFC, none of whom I'm very excited about. And I have the Niners as my third one. And I get it.

I love the defense. I have faith in their ability to sort through it on offense. It's going to be a rocky road. It's not going to be this rocket ship rides at the top with Trey Lance. I really don't think so. But I think they're going to be flashes in the first half of the season that get us really excited. And they're going to find their level in the second half. And I'm just down on the Cowboys.

And we'll get to that a little bit later. But I just, I don't know. I can't get this creeping feeling out of my head that this is just going to be a down year in Dallas with some of the ways that they've built this thing. I know. Every time I make a, I have a Cowboys take, I just picture Jerry Jones punting Mike McCarthy. And so it's just like I have that burn into my brain. And it's like, they're punting on the season because they want to punt on Mike McCarthy. I just, I can't get that out of my mind. But then I go, don't be stupid. Follow your deck. Follow your deck love. Follow the love of your life. And then after a while, I'm like, no, no. It's like, I know.

That's my angel and devil I've gone with with the Cowboys, probably for this last two, three, four months. It's, I just, every time I get excited, I rewatch them. I get back excited. And I remember, oh, McCarthy's there. Oh, Tyron Smith's out. Oh, they have no other receivers other than CD. Like, this is just a very scary situation and that they're really walking a fine line

between like you're saying missing the playoffs and for me winning the division, which is going to be a lot more competitive with the Eagles in it right now. They're already on the wrong side of that line to me. I know. They're walking a fine line before Tyrone Smith got hurt. I'm sticking with my gut here. It's like I'm taking the SATs. It's like, I'm still holding the final take from when we get to those bets at the end.

All right. A. I love it. I went with Chargers because the Chiefs winning. I, and then at plus 175, all the takes. I agree with you. I really like this team. I think it's a little more Stars and Scrubsy than maybe some others.

But I really, they have so many cool players. So I don't really have to argue for the charge. What are you most worried about? Like, what area of the roster are you most concerned with if you think it stars and Scrubsy? You don't like the corners. That's your thing? Corners O line front seven. Everything about safety.

Running back. They have Joey Bosa and Kaleel Mack. Okay. Joey Bosa misses time every year. And it's okay. So, okay, now you get Kalea.

I love that. I love, they are very, very thin on the edge. They literally have two edge rushers on the 53 man roster. Yeah. But that's the thing. I sound like a pessimist.

This team could, it's full of rock stars. Like, they have so many awesome players and they have pervert. Like, I have just ejected the. idea of Bosa and Kahliel Mack missing time out of my brain. I haven't allowed myself to entertain that reality. And I will admit that as a personal blind spot. No, that's fine. That's fine.

I always, I always want the idealistic view of all these teams. It's so hard for me to get off of it. I mean, I think Josh McDaniels had a quote saying blocking Khalil and Joey Bosa. He's like, well, you just kind of pray. Like, you just try to have to, like, it's really hard to game playing against both of those guys. So that is the upside for that. But that's why I have him a wild card. Also, Bengals, other wildcard team, plus 275. Bengals, we all know, they're built with these receivers and this quarterback. That is where this team lives and dies. So I'm very high on Burrow.

The defense, I love this defense, and we loved it for the third down stuff and just the ingenuity they would have. The game plans were really good. But I could see them almost in a way, like just kind of being the same they were last year, if that makes sense, where it's, they're kind of middle of the pack by DVO Wayne and everything. Yes, they were. And the offense got hot at one point, but then faltered off in the playoffs. And right before they got hot, before they beat up on the Raven Scrubs, that one game that we've all talked about a bunch, those three, four weeks before that, they were kind of struggling a little bit. So that's my pessimist side of it.

My optimist side is they can get hot against anyone. Like, you don't know. They are a team that is, they're going to be built by their game plan, if that makes sense, on defense. And then their stars have to win on offense. the receivers in the quarterback. So that one's a tough one for me, but I do think the Bengals are overall going to be a fine team that make the playoffs. And then the last one, really?

This last one, I almost went hot take. I went to the Broncos here, but I went with the Broncos plus 195 over the Raiders. That would have been the other team I was looking at. Going with the Broncos, I think that even that we think this team will take time to gel, younger coaches, Russell Wilson, a new offense. It's always going to end up his offense.

Let's be honest. But also just some of these kind of these newer guys. I think the defensive front I like, I like a lot of the DBs, even if the depth isn't there at all, especially at corner. I do like this team. And I think it's going to be a good team that can withstand some of the ups and downs of the season just because of the star talent that they have. Yeah, I think it's really close between the Broncos and the Raiders and a couple other teams. I also had the Broncos as one of mine. The defensive backfield in Denver compared to the defensive backfield with the Raiders,

the offensive line in Denver being better than the offensive line for the Raiders. It's just a little incremental things. And also, if Russ is Russ, if he's like 80%, 85% of the guy that we've seen in the past, that's still a really fucking good quarterback. And I like the receivers. Like, I still think this team is going to be pretty good over the course of the season, even if it takes them a minute to get going. Even if we think Russ takes a drop, like, which, which I do, I think maybe takes a half step back from what his peak peak was. That's still good. Yes.

That's what to be. His drop's not going from good to average. It's, he's still a legit good. quarterback and those win you games in the league. Those are games. What do we say there's a quarterback you can win with or there's a quarterback you win because of, he can still pull you to victory. Like that is what, that's the talent level that he has.

Even if I do think he's a half step or a half tier he was maybe a year or two ago. I think he has limitations, but I don't think his limitations keep him from that tier of quarterbacks. And I think that's important to keep in mind. I also have the Bengals. I think the Bengals are like a 10 and 7 team. That's what they were last year. the Bengals last season, I know this is not the end-all-be-all.

They were seventh in scoring and 17th in points against. That kind of seems right. I don't know. It feels like they're going to be right around there again, and that's a 10-and-7 team. I think the Ravens are potentially an 11-12-win team. If the Bengals win 10 and they're a wild-card team, I don't know.

That doesn't seem like a huge insult to me. Bengals fans are just consistently upset with me, but I think this team is going to be pretty good again. Yeah, and the thing is this AFC is such a blood- bat that a 9 and 8 team could be a good team or a 10 and 7 team could be a good team to make this playoffs just because everyone's going to beat up on each other. So I like that. Like, Bengals are just going to be like overall have some more to them, but they might end up about the same. I think they're going to become more consistent as a team, even if the end

results aren't better, but I think long run, that's better. I totally agree. And I have the chiefs because I have the charges in the division. So those are my six. Guys, let me, let me jump in for one second here. First of all, you have 13 of the same teams in the playoffs 13 out of 14 so adorable um and then the the dip i hate it who we miss it who are we missing well that's what i was trying to throw some wild cards i was true and i just couldn't figure out anybody that i felt good about like titans maybe my i can't i'm not i'm not arguing that but i'm not arguing that miami is one that i would consider okay i if the if the dolphins made the playoffs over the broncos for example i would not be shocked in the slightest i think they're

has a chance to jump on some people. I like a lot of the pieces they have defensively. Miami is probably the last team that I had off among all of these. I like that. I understand that. Man, I'm trying to do it. Who would it be in the NSC? We're going to throw the Cardinals in there?

We've already had a lot of Cardinals discussions. I don't think any of us in the universe of this podcast are high on the Cardinals. Again, maybe that's a blind spot that we should account for. But it was hard for me to get excited about any of the other teams in the NFC. And a lot of them is like, okay, even if I like what some of the things, the Falcons are doing. It's not like a team that I think it's winning 10 games. So far away.

So far away. You know, like that's what I mean. Giants and maybe the lions. Maybe you can start to talk yourself into the lions. I still think the lions are a year away. I agree. I know. I'm trying to look there.

I know. The commanders and the Cardinals have the same wild card eyes, which is hilarious, plus 290. Okay. Maybe, maybe it's worth mentioning the Patriots in this conversation, considering they made the playoffs last year. But why are the Patriots better right now? than they were at the end of last season.

Give me a reason. They aren't. Maybe Mack Jones takes a big step forward. That's when you're trying to build a case for this year's Bengals. There just isn't a team that checks those boxes because the Bengals are the number one overall pick, a quarterback who missed half the season, a guy who we easily could have seen take a step forward in a second year, and they added a game-breaking player in the top five.

The Patriots added Devante Parker. I think overall the Patriots skill position players are probably better than they were last season But I don't think it's enough of a jumper I'm like oh yeah the Patriots offense is really going to jump on some people Especially with every single question we have about who's pulling the levers there and what it's going to look like It's just hard for me to get behind it I know I'm looking through each division I honestly I'm not arguing the Panthers They uh and it's like

The Panthers can make the playoffs The Panthers if the Panthers defense is really good I'm not saying they will, but there are definitely a few timelines where the Panthers win nine games and sneak into the playoffs. And we already acknowledge the Raiders. Like, you know,

the Raiders are the only other, that's the only other team because that's going to be just a bloodbath and AFC West, you don't know how they withstand this whole year. You know, that's only one other one I'd really argue for. I wish we were better,

Beller, but we're just not. I'm sorry. Here's one last point I'll make and then I'll let you guys get back to the show. Just to speaking to the depth of the AFC, 10 minutes ago, we were talking about how the Jaguars are your favorite long-shot division bet plus $750,000,000 to be a wild card. So the betting market says they have about a 40% better chance of winning the AFC South than of getting a wild card.

So you're going to know about the AFC South. All right. We're going to save our Super Bowl picks for the end because we're going to make you guys stick around. I want to hear your final four, though. Who are your final four teams in the NFL of this season? Okay. For the NFC, I have Packers and Buck. just because why not?

And for the AFC, I have Chiefs and Ravens. And that's, yeah, it's, I, and obviously, how good do I feel about all that? Eh, but I think those, if I had to argue for a team, those are the four teams I would argue for, if that makes sense to everyone. I'm going chalk, like with a few of them. I get that, especially like the bucks. But it's, that's, those are the four teams that I feel right now, September 8th, September 7th recording this, those four are the ones I feel best about right now.

I have the Packers and the Eagles. I don't know how it happens. Because I never think about this. I never think about what the playoff matchups would have to be to get to this final four, which I probably should. I assume this means the Eagles would have to beat the bucks, which thinking about how their season ended last year

seems like a tall order, I do think that this team is a lot better than it was a year ago. So I have the Eagles and the Packers. And then in the AFC, I have the bills in the Chargers because I think the Chargers are going to be really, really good. And I think the bills are going to have home field advantage. I think the bills are going to be the best regular season team. And I think a team going to Buffalo in the playoffs is going to have a very hard time, which will explain some things a little bit later in the show. Yeah.

And I feel awful not even saying the bills there because that's the thing. I'll have some bets here where I'm like, oh, this team or this team. This is some of this is like just, okay, I understand. There's a million things that happen in the NFL season. Stuff that were like, this is for sure going to happen. A year ago, I said the Eagles roster is, eh, like one of the bottom five ones. Four weeks later, I'm like, what the hell was I saying? Like, honestly, I look at this and you get all way into the weeds with your own stuff sometimes.

But honestly, it's, I love what this bill's team is. It's just that the projections of the NFL season, yeah, this is really where I'm at right now. All right. So what is holding the bills back? What is keeping them out of the final four for you? The old line. And I love Josh Allen. He's a star. And I like with the offensive pieces they have around them. I think it's very complete. I really do. Even if the running back situation is still in flux. I love the defense. And it's hilarious. I'm saying all that. You have a quarterback and an awesome defense. That's something you want to go around. But it's just that old line. I'm just scared where it has to be Josh Allen be a hero, every play. And yes, that's the best part of Bill's offense is Josh Allen being a hero. But once the playoffs come around, you, if you're banking on that, that scares me just a little bit, where I could see them having a bad game, if that makes sense.

Like they just, once it comes to, I can see them easily wing the one seed. Like I really see that. But once they get to the playoffs and it gets into that game play and he kind of stuff, that's where I get a little antsy a little bit. Yeah. If they're in pure drop back situations and they have to hold up in some of those big moments, I totally understand being concerned about it.

And the Trey White thing scares me a little bit. I mean, if he misses the first month of the season and what's he going to look like when he gets back, there's tons of uncertainty about their cornerback group. Even Levi Wallace isn't there anymore. Whatever concerns you have about the ceiling of somebody like Levi Wallace, both of their starting corners that they ended last season with are not going to be trotting out there from the number one defense in the league last season. I hate sounding like this. It's, I think in soccer, they say, yeah, can they win on a cold, cold rainy night in Stoke? Like that's kind of like for the bills, even though they play in Buffalo.

I was like, how do they win ugly? That's what I want to see this year. Even though they proved that a few times last year, they had a very easy schedule last year. And again, I'm high on the bills. Buffalo fans, you know, I jump down my throat. I'm very high on this team. But I kind of want to see them win ugly with a new offensive coordinator.

What is their way to like manufacture those easy yards and those easy points or easier ones rather than being like, hey, number 17, go be God. Like that's what I just want to see. I don't know, man. It seems like a pretty good bet to me. number 17, go be God. That's exactly what he looks like near the end of last season. All right.

Let's get to some of the awards, the yearly awards. This one I can't wait. This is always a fun one. Okay. So for all of these, we're going to give our bet, our pick, plus a long shot that we like, because that's one of my favorite things to do every single year on these. Offensive player of the year. What do you got for me?

My pick is Justin Jefferson at plus 1,200. It's fun looking back at this because I was very tempted, very tempted. and this will explain my bomb, my long shot, is sometimes a quarterback gets offensive player of the year, even though it's become a non-quarterback award. And a year- He's won it at one point. There were a couple of them. And in a year where there might be a lot of excellent quarterback play, like I'm not like going out a limb that's not a crazy saying, it might be one where voters reward a quarterback also having an excellent year when someone has an MVP year and a true MVP year where they kind of get the consolation. prize. So I did not pick that for my number one pick. Do you want me to say my bomb right now, too?

Or my long shot? Yeah, yeah. Because of that, my long shot is Dak. And in my, my head canon of the Cowboys make this playoffs with no help on offense, that's where it goes through. And that Dak finally gets his flowers a little bit. And he's at 50 to 1 at plus 5,000. So, but really my Justin Jefferson argument is, and I know we're regurgitating this a little bit, but it's with Justin Jefferson's, I think this offense is going to be really fun to watch. And I think this is an offense that knows once it gets into high leverage situations how to isolate their best player. And I think even before that, before the third downs and the red zones, red zone plays, that's first and second out plays. He's just going to be eating yards and eating targets and eating touches, just over and over,

big touches, 20 yards of pop, good ones, manufactured touches. He's going to be on the Devante Adams playing. I know it's the Cooper Cup role. But I really think Justin Jefferson's going to benefit from being that ace target for this Vikings offense. So I could see him just having one of those years that's an extremely high statistical year where it's an easy vote. And if they make the wild car team, it's an easy thing for voters to vote for where they go, oh, he's on a good team. They went 10 and 7 and they have a top three offense and Justin Jefferson went nuts.

So I could see that timeline as well. I also have Justin Jefferson, which is boring his shit. But I totally agree. I just think that he's going to go supernova this year. I think he's going to get a million targets. He's in an offense that has done a really good. good job with specifically engineering ways to get its best players the ball in the passing game. He is an unlimited talent in a really, really good situation.

And when you look at the other guys, I just, I don't love any of the other options up near the topic. Jonathan Taylor, I feel like he'd have to have a huge, huge, huge year, even compared to what he did last year. Debo is 12 to 1. I don't think there's any way Debo replicates what he did a year ago. Derek Henry is 16 to 1. I do not love that team.

Devante Adams potentially if the Raiders really tailor things to him. But I think that is still a question. I think he's going to be really good there. But I have no idea what the plan it's going to look like on offense. I can see how the Vikings are going to use and tap into Justin Jefferson. And that's why it's just the safest bet in this group to me. And it's like even Cooper Cups up there. And there's no way in hell voters are voting for him two years in a row.

He gets catch 2,500 yards this year. And it's the voter narrative. That's what you're betting. on voters and you're betting on narratives and you have to that's what these kind of angles are. So this is the angle of Justin Jefferson. But I agree with you. That's what where how I kind of fell to Jefferson was, I don't see that path for that guy. Even the Jonathan Taylor path, which I hope happened last year because that was my long shot. But last year for the same exact reward or award was I think there could be more of a balanced team. So he won't have those

ridiculous numbers that people, it's going to be hard for a running back to win again. It is. You have to have a truly, truly historic year, I think, to get this award anymore as a running back. Speaking of the Coles being a more balanced team, I'm going to throw out a couple of my dart throws here. Michael Pittman at 10,000 plus 10,000, I really like. I think that their quarterback play is going to be so much better, a hundred to

one, a guy with his ability and his standing within their passing offense. I really like that, and AJ Brown is the same odds. The only thing I'm concerned about with AJ Brown is just volume and how much they're going to throw the ball, but I mean, they traded a lot and gave AJ Brown a monster contract. I don't think it was to not include him in what they were going to do offensively. So both of those are my favorite long shot dark throws. Yeah, AJ Brown won. I can see that.

It's a couple of weeks in, and he only has like 20 targets so far. And how he walks down and goes, hey, I didn't give him $20 million a year to catch 20 balls. No, I'm not paying a million dollar per catch. What's juice is up a little bit. So I can see that angle as well. All right. Defensive player of the year. This is one of my favorite bets, period.

That's Michael Parsons at Plus 900 at 9 to 1. I think he is incredible. I mean, that's not crazy to say. I mean, he's an all pro as a rookie pass rusher. He was getting talk as defensive player of the year last year as a rookie, which is historic. I mean, that's L.T. level. I think he is a truly, truly top five talent. I think this guy is ridiculous.

and I think he's only getting it better as they've honed in on how to use him. I think they will. They just really having, it's weird. They lost Randy Gregory and Randy Gregory is a stud and a really good player. But I actually think that will help Michael Parsons because now it'll kind of go, you go here as opposed to maybe getting a little too cute sometimes having them drop and everything. The amount of pass rushing snaps he's going to get increases his chances to win this award. I mean, if he gets 17 sacks, then it's probably game over. but they just didn't do that often enough last year for him to get up to those numbers.

He was the most efficient pass rusher in the league, but the volume wasn't where it needs to be to win stuff like this. It very well might be this year. Exactly. That's much more succinct than what I was saying. But that's exactly what it is, is I think that his situation to rack up those numbers that voters can go, oh, my God, he's closing down 20 sacks. And that's an easy vote for people.

And I think it's just, okay, we're not talking about the overall team. defensive player of the year have been on teams that aren't that good or on a defense that isn't that good. I think this Cowboys defense will be good. But it's a different type of vote. It's a true stat vote, I think, for teams. T.J. Watt wins it. You know, like that wasn't like the Steelers or anything. You know, it's just really a true kind of like, no, this, we're rewarding the player type of vote.

I think Michael Parsons is going to be like where everyone goes, oh, my God, this guy's ridiculous. Because have we watched the clips from training camp? It's, I know he did it on film last year. It's even better than last year. He's going to be a very, very scary player for a lot of teams this year. I totally get the pick. I just am down on the Cowboys, and I think narratively I'm down on the Cowboys. So that's why I wouldn't throw him in the mix.

I'm trying to justify my original take here. This is how I do it. All right. Who are your long shots? Long shots. I have Jaylon Ramsey at 40 to 1 plus 4,000. I think just he's entering his prime. If you look at the corners that have won this award in the past, it's right now, 27, 28, 29 years old.

I think Ramsey is, again, like I just said, top five player Parsons, Ramsey is that as well, but a DB. I think Rams are going to be competitive as long as Stafford's healthy. I could see that angle where everyone's like, okay, we're tired of Aaron Donald. And Aaron Donald's kind of bought some shine because of the helmet stuff, even if I don't agree with all that stuff, that's all the size story. But the whole Jamon Ramsey, I think it's like, ooh, this is new, even though, and everyone he has name recognition. It's a position that doesn't get rewarded as much. And also, you know, I think Stefan Gilmore's the last one. okay but now it's this newer guy oh my god he's a star we all know that he literally plays a position

star very easy argument for the narrative i i think that on a team that's very prominent in los angeles all right i like that i like the ramsie one i have very similar reasons for my long shot as well which we can get to i have nick bosa at plus 1400 to win it totally get it there's absolutely a world where he just gets 20 sacks this year on a down to down on a down to down basis i just think he is probably one of the five best defensive players in the league, maybe the best pure pass rusher in the NFL. One of these years, he's just going to break through the ceiling. And I'm betting on it being this year.

So I had him, I think those are decent odds. I also think he has a real chance to win it. My dart throw, Jayaeer Alexander is 66 to 1. Love it. We're just trying to ride that narrative crest if the Packers are the best defense in the league, right? They're allowing 16.8 points per game. They're the reason that the Packers are,

12-win team and the number one seat in the NFC. He's the best player on the Packers' defense. I just love that. I think there's so many different paths to that conversation happening for him to have odds at 66 to 1, which put him in the same range as Bradley Chubb, Matthew Judon, Bobby Wagner. I just think that's a really, really fun bet. Same odds as Bobby Wagner. Same odds as Bobby Wagner.

Jesse Bates, Shaq Barrett. That's a good bet. That is good. I like that. I love it. I love the argument for it. Because if the narrative shifts from like, ooh,

it's no longer the MVP's team and look at this defense. It's exactly it. Who's the star? Yeah, who's the star? Who's the star? Oh, this guy, we recognize this guy's name. That's how this builds up and he's a damn good player.

I'm excited to watch him this year. So there's another weird Packers defensive quirk, which we're going to get into here in a second that I want to bring up. But there was one more Packers defensive player with odds that I didn't really understand when you look at some of the other odds involved here. So we're going to get to that in a second. offensive rookie of the year who you got for me i really like this one actually i have chris oliva at 10 to 1 plus 1 uh i think olive is going to eat some a lot of targets michael thomas

seems to be back it's god it's just like i can never get like concrete stuff with him what it was with that like narrative do you have any michael thomas and fantasy at all i do not i have zero i just i could never do it every single draft it was the right value and i'm just sitting there hovering over the button. I'm like, eh, I just can't do it. I know. I just, I've seen. And I know I'm going to regret it.

I know he's going to win everyone's league for them because he's going to get 180 targets and it's going to be so stupid that he went for eight bucks in every auction, but I just could never do it. I know. And I've real life stock on him because I was pretty high on him coming out of Ohio State, but no fantasy. But you've cashed it a while ago. You don't get to trade on that anymore.

It was like 10 years ago. It's great. It's great. Oh, it's great. As I put in my report with the Falcons, that's when I joined the Raiders the next month. So it didn't even matter. No one even used it anyway. So, but Alave is the one just because the same thing.

Just I think him and Thomas are, I really love this pairing. I really do. I love Alave. He is day one comes in. He looked good in preseason, which I'm not trying to like sound like arrogant here, but it kind of makes sense because he was one of the most pro ready receivers I've ever seen. Great hands. He's already doing deep stuff for them, which is going to open.

open up the whole offense. So you get some of those stats as well. And James is willing to chuck it to him. So I really like that. I think he's going to get the counting stats. And he's also the talented player with the name recognition as well. So I really like a lobby. And voters are willing to vote this onto a receiver.

It's not just a quarterback award. It's not just a running back award. Like they're willing to give it to the receiver. So that's where my argument for him. And maybe a little bit with the NFC South receiver, Drake London. That's a little bit on him. But Kyle Pitts might be eating. until a lot of his targets as well.

So I had Drake Lennon just because I do think they're going to be more targets to go around in Atlanta. And maybe I'm wrong about that. Maybe Kyle Pitts is going to be the same sort of force that Michael Thomas is and suck up as much oxygen as Michael Thomas will in New Orleans. But I was just banking on the targets with Drake London. That's why I picked him. You're talking about your charges stuff. I'm a character of myself. One of who my top two receivers were, Drake Lennon and Chris Lave.

It's not, I haven't changed shit in months. I just sticking with my takes, guys. I just copy and paste. No, no, seriously, though. I really like Drake London, too. And I totally get that argument for him because I think he's going to be a monster who, as soon as they get into Red Zone, so he can eat some touchdowns pretty early on.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Drake London got 150 targets at end of the year with 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Like that's within play just because they don't have anybody else to throw the ball to there. I don't think their offense is going to be good, but I think that Drake London could absolutely put up decent numbers as a rookie. Well, a lot of it's just a target question to me. The other one I was thinking about was Damien Pierce. Yeah.

If he's just the guy there and usage, I don't think their offense is going to be good at all. I think their line is going to be significantly better than it was last year. It'd be hard for their running game to be any worse. So if he gets all of the carries and he's just the guy from day one, I think counting stats may put him in the conversation. But I still felt better about Drake wanted. Who's your dart throw? Oh, man. I got like three.

You get one dart throw slash maybe one one B. Okay. I'm going to Rashad White. You can't list off like seven guys. And then when one of them happens to be like, that was my guy. I had it. Hey, if you bet on him, there's such dart throws. I still cash in.

But I'm going Rashad White from the Bucks at 40 to 1. I love this one. I actually just got him yesterday at 2001 at a place, which I'm pretty stoked about. But yeah, at MGM right now, he's 40 to 1. I love him, like, just as a player overall, love his situation with the Bucks. He's got great hands. He can be just even taking checkdowns. He's so much more explosive than Lenny Fernette.

And on top of it, I think Leonard Fernette battles sometimes with the injury stuff. He already got paid. You're already some whispers. And I think this buck staff is very high on Rashad White. He was doing past protection stuff in the preseason, which I was fired up about. So he's a true three down back. He's 215, 218. He tested really well.

He's explosive. I'm very, very high on Rashad White overall. And I think there's a situation, especially the Bucks team's very good, where he has the recognition where he can get this kind of award. And then my 1B is if certain things happen, it would be Desmond Ritter at 22 to 1. And that's just certain things have to happen for that. And that's voters just going, oh, quarterback. Quarterback starting. And then just winning the award that way.

I know, even if things break right, I still don't feel like he's going to start of games for that to happen. I also have Rashad White at 40 to 1. We're one Leonard Fernette hamstring away from Rashad White playing like 80% of the snaps for the bucks. They've shown that they're willing to do it. If they're comfortable with him in pass protection, this team threw the ball to Leonard Fournett all of the time last year. All of the time. All the time. So I think that Rashad White, if you're doing well, late fantasy draft and for some reason,

you're waiting until the day the season starts and there's somebody available late, I think he's worth a dart throw with dice roll for the same reason that we're mentioning him here. Yeah. It's, guys, he's a really fun player watching him this preseason two. It's, I'm very excited to watch him throughout this year because the fact, my question about him coming into the league, like most running backs, is pass protection. Yeah. And the coach, have gone out of their way. Byron Leftwich and Todd Bowles already have quotes about how this guy studies like a quarterback and he's a man's man of how he practices. Those are not thrown out to rookies like that at all. And I mean, you could be optimistic about rookies. Usually it's, well, we got to

see it in the game. They're more going like, oh, we can't wait to play this guy, but we just paid Leonard. All right. Well, how are we going to figure out to get this guy on the field? He is a very, very fun player. Bella just sent us a message, 84 targets for Leonard Ford out last year. 84 to Leonard Fournette. He went the league in drops two years ago. I think he's been in my top five and drop percentage his whole career. Like, yeah, he's. Rashad's going to get a lot of varied work. Same coaching staff.

Same coaching staff that had David Johnson and used him all over the place. I know Ariens has gone left, which was there, though. And he used, Rashad White used to be a running back before he converted to run or sorry, receiver before he converted to a running back. I don't know. There's a lot to like. I can't wait for him to run for 420 yards this year. And I just go, oh, I'm an idiot.

Defensive rookie of the year. This one was tough. Yeah, there's no. real. I understand why Aiden Hutchinson is just the best option. Past rusher starting day one. I get that. It was just boring to me. Same. That's literally the same. And he got the hard knocks bump a little bit. And so I know. I couldn't that would have been my real, probably real bet, but I went with Derek Stingley at 14 to 1. This guy is a, I think a plug and play corner. Corner, it's very hard to be a tangibly good one. He's going to have a lot of chances to prove it.

I think if this Texans team is like, I mean, they might be more frisky. But, you know, I think this guy comes in and he's like a true number one corner as he steps in the league, not pro bowl level, but a good solid corner. I really love his game. He looked good in preseason a little bit. He got Rams got after him a little bit, but he also has some really nice plays. I think this guy, if he's healthy, can have a really nice year corner for the Texans. I had Soss Gardner, similar kind of thinking with the corner. And I also think the narrative with the Jets defense.

Aaron Schatz was on earlier this week, the Jets were 32nd in defensive DVOA last year. He has them projected being the top 10 this year. Defense is really, really volatile. I mean, you could just bounce around so much, and they got so much better personnel-wise. All of the guys who played for the Jets last year on defense are not playing for the Jets this year on defense. So just sheer randomness, I think they're going to be a lot better on defense. And if, you know, you have that, those little chirps, like, man, the Jets defense is kind of Feisty, hi. Yeah, man. Sauce Gardner's been really good for them. Got seven, eight picks.

Like, I just feel like you can build a case for Sauce Gardner in this conversation in a way that you really can't with some of these other guys. And he looked great this preseason too. Like he looked really, I mean, looked good as a college player. Don't get me wrong. That's why he goes top 10. But he looked really, really good this preseason too, just in true man situations as well. Like he, he's a very good player. So I love that pick as well. And they're willing to put him, I mean, I don't know how much man they're going to play. They played an insane amount on third down last year. I think injuries might have been part of the reason. But if they really just let him go to work, is that part of the conversation as we get close to the end of the year? Because you just need one

big matchup in a national profile game or a somewhat, that's all you need. He needs one big matchup where he does well. And people go, oh, man, check out this guy. Now he shuts Stefan Diggs down for a half. Right. And we start talking about it. I think that's a really good idea. Okay. That's how it goes. My dart throw. I have Jaquan Brisker at 40 to 1. Love it. If you look at the other guys that are at 4th. Safety has never won this award, by the way. Not since I was about to ask that.

Safety ever won this award. It's objectively a stupid name to throw out when you think about the history of it. Hey, wait, wait, Mark Carrier. Same team, 1990. I'm sorry, 1990. I was three years old. Okay. You look at the guys around him, okay?

He has the same odds as Drake Jackson, who doesn't start for the Niners. Daxon Hill, who doesn't start for the Bengals. Sam Williams, who doesn't start for the Bengals. start for the Cowboys. Jaquan Brisker is going to be an every down do-shit player for the Bears defense this year. So I don't think he's going to win, but I think the fact that he has similar odds to Roger McCreary and Lewis Seen is 25 to 1, Andrew Booth is 25 to 1.

I don't know. I like it. I think at 40 to 1, it's a fun little dart throw. I mean, and he's a player, man. And that's exactly it because he's going to be around the ball. So counting stats matter. They need the people. They're all that matters.

All it matters. I know I'm a sicko and I'm like, oh, check out Pascal pancake in this guy. He only has one catch for five yards. But man, you know, look at that. But honestly, like he racking up all those box score stats being, you know, the five by five guys, they say in basketball, that's the type of guy Bristker can be because he's always going to be out. He's got five force fumbles. He's got a handful of sacks. Like that is definitely on the table.

Fun smart player. I love it. My bomb is more. Okay. there's no one else really popping out, but this guy's on a good team. It's a resurgent defense, and that's George Carl office.

That is the Greek freak at 20 to 1. I think also my second one, because the same thing, because it's also same narrative, Kyrie Elam, 20 to 1, both same odds. Trey White comes back, teams are thrown at him constantly.

He ends the year with half a dozen interceptions. I like that. Yeah. Those same argument for both of these guys. They're on a team that's prolific, that have a lot of big moments, and if they come on the second half of the year,

and I think both of these guys are really, to contribute right away. No shit. That's why they go in the first round. But I also just think that these guys, they have that ability to do so. I'm a big fan of both of these players, Carl Offis and Elam. And I think they have that kind of football ability, I say, to like right away, hit the ground running. I think they just have that to them where they can really impact plays.

So I think that's why 20 to 1, being a prominent team really helps as well. All right. Coach of the Year, this is really annoying that we have the same two for Coach of the Year. I'm disappointed in us. So I opened up the dock and I was about to type this in and I clicked and I was like, okay, so my normal pick is Kevin O'Connell, which I believe you have Kevin O'Connell as well.

And I was like, We talked about this. You have to have a theme. If I'm picking the Vikings to make the playoffs and we, you can see it. You can see it by week 12. We have the glowing NFL countdown feature about how they change the culture in Minnesota. And Justin Jefferson is having this historic season.

And it's all kumbaya and bullshit. about how everyone's having a great time up there and they're out from under Zimmer's thumb. It's just so easy for me to picture. Yes. It's so easy, especially if that offense is just going nuts. Oh, he's got more of Kirk Cousins than anyone ever has before. Oh, that's another. Some moron.

It's like, was it really Kevin O'Connell, who was the brains of the operation in L.A.? Like every single bit of that you can see from a mile away. I love it. I love it. And then this was more annoying, I think, for me. was, okay, because I think a lot of us, we like the little bit of KOC right now. Picking my bomb, I started typing it in.

I was like, wait, who do you have in? Dennis Allen at 25 to 1, and we have the same freaking one. And I was so upset about this. But hey, he's already been a head coach, so he's not some new guy. I know that. But coming into this team, if they are this frisky team, this true playoff team where they go 10 and 7,

they have some big wins against some good opponents. They beat the bucks. You know, they always match up well against the buck. They beat them. I could see it. Like I could just see it where teams are like, hey, hey, we're going to, we're going to anoint him. He had a really good year where maybe all these other teams are beating up on each other.

There's no surprise, 12 and 5 team. And it's more just like a rewarding, like a solid team that's like, hey, you guys were pretty good this year. That's where I'm going with Dennis Allen at 25 to 1. I just didn't like any other long shots. Same. And we picked them to make the playoffs. And we picked them to make the playoffs. They were the longest shot I picked to make the playoffs this year.

And if their defense is really, really, really. good, then you feel the narrative builder. I'm like, man, Dennis Allen, that defense is great. They're this defense first team now. I mean, he's really kind of shaped the team in his image. All the other guys, I just don't think the Jets are going to be that good for a guy like Solo to win it. McVeigh, no. Bowles, maybe.

Bowles is 30 to 1. If the bucks are really, really good, I could see that. But there aren't that many other guys in that range. I'm like, yeah, that's definitely going to happen. The only other one I thought was really interesting is Nick Siriani at 20 to 1. If the Eagles do have this year. It's, that's one I could see the narrative for it going like, ooh, this guy that will.

They're the favorites to win their division though. I know, but hey, but not everyone knows that. It could be a surprise Eagles team, you know, like quote unquote for people that don't pay attention the last nine months. So it's, that's kind of what this is, is Siriani kind of like, they, oh, man, they have a couple big wins. Ooh, they just knocked deck in the Cowboys and they have a feisty offense. They have a couple big wins. I could see that one as well. I mean, everyone was making fun of them in his press conference, you know, last year. like we've already talked about how much more how much better we feel about him and that whole staff so i think he just gets rewarded for that that's not my pick but i i could see the argument for

it all right let's run through some of these pretty quickly here passing yards leader these are fun i always like doing these every single year we're going to do our pick and a dart throw for each one of these as well who's your passing yards leader i went joe burrow at nine to one just just because how that offense is built and i could see them maybe trailing a few games where he just stacks up a few more yards. My bomb is Cala Murray at 30 to 1. Kyle Murray 30 to 1 is actually a pretty good one. I like that a lot.

I know. That would be a taste. There's a chance that defense just falls off a cliff. Right. And they're throwing the ball 50 times a game. Yes. And they're not going to be. And also it's like, hey, we just paid this guy.

We got to, we got, I know, I know. Kyle Murray at 30 to 1 is a pretty good one. I have Mahomes at 8 to 1 because I'm not as bullish on the defense as you are. I think that they might have to throw it a decent amount to win some shootouts this year. Totally get it. dart throw, if Justin Jefferson is going to have the season that we think Justin Jefferson is going to have, somebody has to throw him the ball. So I have Kirk Cousins at 20 to 1.

Man, we just became a Kirk Cousins pot of nowhere. That's unbelievable. If Kurt Cousins throws the ball 550 times this year, I mean, I don't know. Somebody has to throw Justin Jefferson the ball if he's going to have this season. This is the same offense that I got, you know, Jared Gough paid. and Kirk Cousins is a full tier or two better than that. So yeah, I get it. Couss of 20 to 1 was my favorite one. All right, rushing yards leader. I went Eli Mitchell at 16 to 1.

What a weird fucking choice. Hey, if he's healthy, who's going to beat him out? Who's beating them out? Anybody. By week three, Kyle's going to be like, you know what? I don't care. Spin the wheel. We'll put whoever in.

I think they know this is their guy. Oh, you are going to feel like such an idiot in week three when Jeff Wilson and gets 20 carries for no reason. No, if Eli Mitch is healthy. They're working them on third down. They want this guy on the field, but I get it. No Shanahananan running back makes it through the year healthy, but this is one. I'm betting on it.

I don't know if it should be 16-1 that he stays healthy the whole year, but this is the one. With an offense, with Tray Lance, they have some little more zone read stuff, so he gets a little benefits of the yards, you know, some of that stuff, you know, get some cheapies out of that, some explosive play. So that's why I do have a lot of fantasy shares in him, so maybe that's why I was What a weird choice. This is the weirdest thing you've ever said on this podcast, and that's saying a lot. Ooh, that is saying a lot.

Eli Mitchell to win the rushing title at 16 to 1. You don't have to pick somebody that's like 15, 16 to 1. You can pick who you think is going to win it. The one that you're going to pick was I thought about that, but then I remember who else they have in that backfield. I don't know. I just think they got no one else. So I think the 49ers are just, we need this guy. So I think they're going to reward them for it.

I don't know. Also a very good point, dollars. Thank you very much. A lot of touchdowns. Not yards. God, Eli should win the rushing title. I love it.

I cannot wait for him to go for $1,700. I can't. I have Nick Chubb at plus $1,000. I just think they're going to run a million times. Even if you think Kareem Hunt's going to kind of chew into that workload a little bit, I love Nick Chub so much. And he's going to get the workload. This guy ran for 1,200 yards last year while missing a handful of games.

The guy is absolutely unbelievable. He's a machine. The Terminator and he's going to get a ton of work this year. Even if he doesn't catch a single pass. You can have any questions you want about Nick Chubb's fantasy ceiling because of the way that he's used. But as a runner, I love him in this conversation. He's incredible. He's absolutely incredible.

That's the thing about him. We forget, like, as I hate it because everyone says, as a pure runner, it's so freaking true, though. As a pure runner, he is unbelievable. He is so explosive, so strong, just go zero to 60 in a split second. And my argument against it was, yes, Hunt, DeNus Johnson, Jerome Ford. Like, I don't know. I think they might try to keep him healthy by giving other guys touches.

So that was my only thing about being a little scared about him being the leader. He doesn't need 300 carriers to do it, though, because he averages five yards to carry. Just the explosiveness and the efficiency. What's the most games he's played, though? He's, I mean, last year was really the first time he missed time. You went, well, no. He had 12 games in 2020. 2014, 2021.

So 2019, he had a full year and he went for 1494. I didn't realize he missed that much time in 2020. That's surprising to me. I think I had him a fantasy, so that's why it's vivid. 5.3 yards per carrier on his career. Pretty efficient, Nick Chubb running the ball. He's incredible. My long shot here, I was shocked at this.

I don't know if suspension thing. I don't know what this is. Alvin Camara on Bet MGM is 50 to 1 to win the rushing title. I know that Alvin Camara has never run. rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. I'm well aware of that. If you look at the per game numbers, they were giving them the ball 18 times a game last year in New Orleans.

Same. If you extrapolate that over a 17-game sample and you look at, if he averages 4.5 yards of carry, which is about what his career averages, and they give him the ball 18 times a game, it's like 1,400 yards. With a healthier O line. With a much healthier O line. So you look at the guys he's around in that conversation. It just makes no sense to me.

This is the best part. Here are the guys that he has the same odds ass. Brees Hall, David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, Ronald Jones, Travis E.T.N. The workload he's going to get, that's my favorite bet. Kenneth Walker is 50 to 1. This is my favorite one of all of the bets we found that were long shots. I have no idea why Camarra is 50 to 1 to win this. I like that.

I like that. My bomb is Sequin Barclay at 33 to 1. I like that a lot, too. Just pure workload. Pure workload. He looks great. He looks very healthy. And I think that coaching staff is smart enough to know where the bread is buttered. So I think they, and they have no attachment to him. I'm not trying to be mean. But it's not like the GM that drafted him's there going like, oh, we got to keep him healthy. We got to do that. No, run him. He's our best player on our offense. Go. And I think that's how they're going to look at him. So 33 to 1. I also love him for fantasy too as a little by cheap option. I think everybody's on that. I think everybody in their mother's on that take. So I'm not like giving a huge fantasy insight here on him. So I managed to get him in one league. I was very happy about it. Okay. Yeah.

Receiving Yards leader. I would love, I can't wait to hear you square this pick with some of the other shit you've said over the last hour. Who was your receiving yards winner? I couldn't have Jefferson on this one too. So I went CD Lamb. You picked him to win offensive player of the year and you think C.D. Lamb is going to win the receiving yards title.

I'm spreading it. Spreading it a little bit. I know. I went CD Lamb though at 10 to 1. And this is one where I went, I zagged a little bit off my own take. You're just going off the rails now. Yeah. No, hey, hey, you got spread it out.

So I got both of them, 8 to 1 and 10 to 1. If I'm better receiving yards leaders, I don't know. I'm a degenerate, but I haven't gotten that far into the Vegas life. With CD Lambda at 10 to 1, this is more, I think they're going to be trailing some of these games, even if I'm optimistic. And who else are they going to throw the ball? Who else did they throw in it to? That's all it is. And Dak loves them.

They have some of the best chemistry between a quarterback and receiver. I think now with Amari not being there, Mari Cooper, CD can truly play more of those slot snaps that they want them to play. They were switching them back and forth That seemed last year. They were both Z and slot. I think they gave them in this best spot doing that as this vertical intermediate slot threat, creates yards after the catch through strength.

I don't know. I could see that. And the games where it's ugly, where they're down 17, getting a lot of cheapies. I think that can really add it up too. But I know. The Jefferson is really probably where my heart is.

No, I'm sorry, where my head is, but my heart's with CD Lamb here. CD Lamb is a pick to win. This is totally fine. It just doesn't drive with any of the things that you've said over the last hour on this podcast. I have Justin Jefferson at 8 to 1 because I picked him to win offensive player of the year. And I think he might have a hard time doing that if he didn't win the receiving yards title.

Yeah. My logic fell apart on this one. This was this was me just going, ooh, CD at 10 to 1 without remembering all my other picks. Ooh, shiny. Okay. Who's your bomb? Bomb is Cortland Sutton at 50 to 1. I love this one. Yeah. I actually, this one, I just joke that I don't bet on receiving yards leaders. And now I'm like, this one I might throw a little taste on. Just 50 to 1. This is just, I think how this office is. I think how the chemistry that Russ will have with him. I think this is, I'm not going crazy here.

This is his number one target clear. I know people are trying to make Jerry Judy happen. Sutton is going to be Russ's guy. And I think just all throughout the field, red zone, own 20 yard line, midfield, deep, intermediate, short. I think Sutton's going to eat a lot of targets in that offense. You can potentially do it on like 65 catches based on the way I think this office is going to be structured.

So I love this one. 50 to 1 is really, really good. The Randy Mosser rookie. line like 67 catches like 1,400 yards just averaging about 20 something a pop. Yeah, I can see that as well. I had McLaurin at 50 to 1. I just think he's so insanely talented. If that that deep ball efficiency that they didn't have last year creeps back even a little bit. And I love what having Jahan Dotson on the other side is going to do for his opportunities. I'm big on him in pretty much every single area. I had him in every fantasy league that I could get him in.

He was going as like wide receiver 19, 20. I think he has top seven upside of the position easily. I just feel like the volume is going to be there. You follow the money. They paid him. So many reasons for me to think that he has the potential to have a really, really big year. Yep.

And there'll be trailing. You know, that matters too, like just getting those easy yards too. But I love the pairing of Dotson McCar. And I think that's be a really fun one. Sacks leader, I mean,

I think this makes total sense. I have Bosa at 14 to 1. He was my defensive player of the year. You have Michael Parsons at 20 to 1. He was your defensive player of the year. Stunt! He was 20 to 1. Stunt!

That's insane. Strinted to go bet that. That one's really, really good. So here's, this is the weirdness that I was going to point out. My dart throw is Rishon Gary at 30 to 1. Roshan Gary is 16 to 1 to be defensive player of the year. Why is he 30 to 1 to win the Sacks title? That feels like good value to me.

Voters care about TFLs? I guess so. That's the only thing I think. Yeah, yeah, it's funny when you go that, the one to one on everything. It's like having Justin Jefferson as your offensive player of the year. not betting up for receiving your answer. It's like kind of that same logic. But yeah, my, my bomb is Brian Burns.

Remember, that's a season two, season two guy. But Brian Burns just on this defense, you know, teams passing on them. I don't know. He only, we thought he did make the Pro Bowl last year. But I think this is the year that maybe he gets those, you know, some of those cheapies and everything, just how their defense is. And he's a hell of a player, a hell of a talent. I just liked him at 40 to one.

I like the price of that. And I could just see a path of that happening. I think Rashon Gary is just if you look at the range. stats of the pressure rates and everything else. He absolutely has an 18, 20 sack season in him if he continues to play the way he did last year. Similar. You look at Randy Gregory's per snap

pressure rates last year. Randy Gregory at 100 to 1, I think, is a really fun bet. It's a great one. He's on track to play week one, so those are the two that I really enjoy. There are a little bit longer shots. Okay. Some of the weird bets that we have, we're going to run through these very quickly. Yes. What are your, the weird kind of, let's this guy, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.

the weird kind of random bets that we wanted to have on the record before we got the season started here. Lay it on me. What do you got? This is the et cetera bets. Yes. I have the bills win all six of their division games at plus 300 at 3 to 1. It's a great one. It's a great one.

I like that one. Yeah. When I came across that one, I was pretty happy. I don't think they do it. I think losing one and just stumbling. It's just almost too predictable. But it's a really fun game. Yeah.

Some ugly game against the Dolphins or, you know, anybody really in that division. But the next one I have is, Chiefs Chargers to finish one, two, in either order in the AFC West at plus 210. I really like this one. That one's great. I was shocked that it was plus two, ten. We talked about in the green room before, but I really like that one. So it's in either order, it's like boxing a paro, or boxing exotic.

It's going to be tough for those stars and scrub chargers to finish second in the division, though. They have so many holes on that roster. Stars, though, stars, you know, it's, you know, you never know. Hey, they can still win the division at 10 and 7 if they face some injuries. But the next one I have, and these are some more player props, Trevor Lawrence, over 22 and a half touchdowns at minus 115. That was really a low number. I know. I might not love the receivers, but I love Trevor Lawrence, and I think Peterson can actually dial up some plays.

So, yeah, that one was a little lower than I thought, and it's been like that all summer. I have DAC over 42, 99 and a half yards at minus 115, trailing a lot, chucking it a bunch, just seeing getting some cheapies. if they do have a good narrative and he wins the offense player of the year, like my law shot bet, can easily see him hit that. That seems really low. He threw for 4,500 yards almost last year with the best defense in the league. And he missed the game.

Yeah. Yeah. I really liked that one. Last year I pounded his touchdowns and got that one. He maybe sweat a little bit near the end, but it got that one pretty safe. But the last one is Chris Olave over four and a half touchdowns at even money. And Alave is a great red zone player because he has feel and great catching range. I know people think of him as a burner.

He's an unbelievable route runner. So I have a law of over four and a half touchdowns at even money, a plus 100. So I actually like that one a lot too. All right. Run through mine very quickly. The Cowboys are plus 175 to miss the playoffs. It's a good bet. I like this one a lot.

They can finish 20th in defensive efficiency this year. Would you be surprised at all? Nope. If their defense just completely falls off without the turnovers and we ultimately come to find that not having any receivers, named C.D. Lamb and having a rookie developmental player bump out to left tackle for you and having to sign 40-year-old Jason Peters a week before the season because you have no other answers on your roster is going to hold you back a little bit.

Hey, those are my NFCE champs that you're talking about right now. So that's, it's almost two to one for them to miss the playoffs. But other than that. The state of where they are right now, I really, really like that one. I get it. Tennessee plus 200 under seven and a half wins. There's a chance of Titans just aren't good this year. Yeah.

Yeah. there's so many questions. The offensive line, what their receivers look like, under seven and a half wins, two to one there. And then the one player prop that I had, Michael Pittman over 1,024 and a half receiving yards. He had 1082 with Carson Wentz last year. I feel pretty good about Michael Pittman, top in that number. God, it's a weird way to say Alec Pierce. But yeah, no, that is a good one.

It just because out of offenses, we got to get the Colts, this run first out. they are going to be a really good running team, but they're going to be so balanced on offense with Matt Ryan. I don't know. I know the Falcons' offense wasn't good last year. They were interesting, but they weren't good. And I get it. Matt Ryan didn't have a great statistical year overall, like if you look at advanced stats and all that stuff. Still a good quarterback.

Like he's still a tangibly good quarterback. There's no fall off. It was just situation fall off. So I understand that with Pittman hitting those yards, even if the talent maybe or the weapons around him got better. So he's not eating all those targets. All right. MVP, let's do it. Mahomes, 8 to 1.

And I really like this one. This is one of my favorite bets. I think he's on a warpath this year. I think he is just really to take the NFL by storm again. I think there's enough shine off of him so people don't have that voter fatigue. That's an important thing. It's an important thing to mention. That's, it's very important.

Voters do not like to repeat. Even Rogers last year, everyone's like, oh, really? We have to, like kicking and screaming to vote him. But I think just Mahomes 8 to 1 The kind of the chiefs have kind of in a way Because we want the new thing I get it too As someone that watches all these games

I want new things too And new shiny toys too I think also that we're going to remember Oh yeah Patrick Mahomes is a truly all time type of talent Playing a really good offensive line Even the talent like the Tyreek Hill Loss in people's minds

I actually think that would help For the voting with Mahomes Even though I think this offense Yeah I agree Awesome The normal quote unquote normal fan goes, oh, they watch Tyrick Hill. And Mahomes is still great.

That's going to help as well. So 8 to 1. I really like that bed overall in real life as well. Let's hear it. You're picking between two. Fuck it. I'm going with Herbert at plus 8. Ah.

I was picking between Josh Allen and Herbert. I'm going with Herbert a plus 850. I just think this could be the Justin Herbert year. I'm doing it. I don't care. I'm going to Justin Herbert a plus 850. I am a tiny bit worried about the bill's offensive line. The conversation we had earlier on the show convinced me, okay?

So I'm picking Justin Herbert to plus 850. My dart throw. We talked about it. Kirk Cousins is 20 to 1 to win the passing title. He's 50 to 1 to win MVP. If Kevin O'Connell is a coach of the year bet that we like, if Justin Jefferson is going to break all these records, if the Vikings are an 11-win team and Kirk Cousins throws for 5,000 yards,

50 to 1. Yeah, defensive players at 50 to 1. So I think that that's my favorite, a long shot bet, even if I don't think it's going to happen. Yeah. My middle level bet it was Lamar at 161. Same kind of thing with Redemption Tour. But my bomb, my long pick was just pick a defensive player.

It hasn't happened since the 80s, since LT. And before that, I believe it was Allen Page in the early 70s. There's only been two in history that have done this. But if there's going to be a year, maybe it's one of those where all the quarterbacks are good, but none of them has that truly crazy 50 touchdown year where we're pointing at him as the guy. And a guy like Miles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Micah Parsons, all the, these guys are all 250 to 1. So I know it's only happened twice in history, but that's my Bob pick. I think it's either pick one of the chalk guys, the top five guys. You already

went through what, Herbert, Josh Allen, Mahomes, all those type of guys or just go way, way, bomb. So that's the only arguments I can make. What you're thinking about. Are you going back? I'm trying to think about what I want to do. I have never had this much trouble picking who I thought was going to win a Super Bowl. Because everything logically, points me to the bills. I think they're going to be the number one seat in the IFC. I think the teams are going to have trouble going through Buffalo to ultimately beat them in the postseason. But I'm just worried about how unanimous it feels right now. I am concerned about it. And it just, there's this voice in the back of my head being like, it's all too good

to be true. They feel the crush of this. And that's going to be a lot to endure throughout the entire season, an entire off season of everyone telling you this is your year. But the team I would want to pick, I feel like I'm just going to get endless amounts of shit for it if I do it. Gee, I wonder who it is. Who is it? No, but I'm with you, though, with the bills when everybody's zinging right now. It's kind of, it's one of those where it does feel too good to be true. And also, they got nine captains.

Maybe is that going to cost turmoil once the nine cap, the fellowship of the ring? That's where they're going for. that's what's going on in Buffalo. But yeah, I know. That's what it is. It's more just the Pade the public is kind of what I was one of my arguments as well. All right, fuck it. I'm going with the Chargers.

Chargers over Packers. I love it. I love it. Love it. I just can't pick the bills. Everyone's picking the bills. It's so boring to me. Chargers over Packers.

And Buffalo fans, we do really like the bills. I love the bills. I love the bills. It's just one of those things where it's like, I don't know, man. I just get a little bit skeptical of. how everyone seems to be on it. Chargers over Packers. That's what I got. Okay.

Justin Herbert here. And I'm sticking with kind of my, one of my offseason narratives that I've had, offseason takes. I'm going with the Chiefs at 10 to 1. I think this is a redemption tour for Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes, a team that didn't even fall off, but it kind of feels like people are making it. This team beat a redemption tour.

I know. What do they need to be redeemed from? I don't know. Takes. That's really, I don't think you're wrong. I just think it's ridiculous that they need a redemption tour. from anything. Oh, yeah, yeah. Personally, yeah, this is, it's ridiculous. They haven't done anything.

I mean, this offense was still incredible last year. Every EPA number, Mahomes' last year's season was still a top five season, like, from the last few years since he started quarterback. Like, there hasn't been any drop off. The offense line is awesome. I think the defense helps. I think this always, this defense improves throughout the year. Now they don't have to play guys like Dan Sorenson. Like, they actually have some decent players on their defense. I think they're just going to, this is a really much. much more complete team than they're getting credit for now. The corner is a little worrisome, but I just really like this team. I really like the staff. And yeah, I know. I'm going with the chiefs at 10 to 1.

I just like it. I think they're going to have a very, very good season. And I think I'm betting on number 15 for all this. And I think this is just his type of year. All right. That's all we got. We're ready. Everything is documented now.

I'm sure we won't hear about any of this as they all go horribly, horribly wrong. So it's great. All right, that's all we got. We will be back Thursday afternoon, 3.30 p.m. Eastern. Me, Nate Deontay, live previewing week one on our YouTube channel. If you are not subscribed to the YouTube channel, go click a button. Go join us. We're going to be doing a ton more video stuff throughout the season.

Live shows, standalone YouTube content. So many things coming your way. Please go subscribe now if you have it. Run Your Pool is doing a Pix Pool for. us this year. We're picking five games against the spread every single week. We have like 1,200 people signed up. There are prizes. We're going to talk about it every single week on that preview show. So please, if you have not signed up, go do that now. We're going to have a ton of fun doing that all year. Tonight, Rams, Bills, live reaction on YouTube after the game. You are going to

be so tired of us by the time the season is over. I guarantee it. We're going to be talking about football pretty much all day over the next four or five months. So please make sure you're subscribed if you're not. We'll be back later this afternoon with Deontay. In the meantime, appreciate you guys listening. Talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.