The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - JJ Watt retires & Wild Card Threat Index with Benjamin Solak

Episode Date: December 28, 2022

How scared should we be of some of the teams competing in the Wild Card race? Do any of them have legit chances? The Ringer's Benjamin Solak joins Robert Mays as they each rank the teams in order of level of threat, plus they reminisce on JJ Watt's retirement from the NFL.Subscribe to the TAFS YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@athleticfootballshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today from the ringer, one of our old friends. Ben Soak, Ben, thanks for doing this, man. It always feels so weird to hear you do the intro at 1x speed. Because whenever I'm listening, it's at 2x speed. You're a psychopath.

You're a psychopath. I'm a lot of football show. I'm your host, Robert Mays, and it's so much slower now. I don't understand how people listen at 2x to anything. I'm a 1x podcaster. I don't go for efficiency. I respect the art of the medium too much. But the idea that anyone would listen to me,

my voice and the way that I talk and my cadence at 2x speed doesn't seem like an enjoyable experience in the least. It seems awful. I cannot believe you would willingly do that to yourself. I just wouldn't listen to the show. If I had that little time, I'd just be like, it's not worth it. I'm not getting enough from this to make it worth my time. It's not even like the save time thing.

It's just I talk very fast. I was raised in an immigrant family, everybody talks really fast. And to me, everybody else is talking slow. Let's give it moving people, got places to do people to see. It's always funny when people tell me

when they listen on 1X or when they watch the YouTube channel because they're so used to listen to on 1.5, that it just sounds like we're both very drunk. Extremely wasted. It's very funny. I respect anybody that can do that. All right, we're going to do something today that I used to do while writing

for one of our old colleagues. league's Ben Glickman when he was my editor at the ringer. I used to call it the wildcard threat index. So when we get to wildcard weekend, I always thought it was fun to look at the teams playing on wildcard weekend and try to figure out who was actually the biggest threat to the contenders in the league. And we're gaming the system a little bit with this, okay? By my crude calculations, there are about 22 teams that are still alive for the playoffs or have currently made the playoffs. Of those 20, I'm not counting. the Raiders who need like five million things to go right for them to make it.

I'm not counting them and the Steelers and teams that have like a less than 2% chance. My father has been updating me. He's a Steelers fan. I've been home for a week. He's been updating me on the Steelers playoff chances. You get the win, you know, whenever. I showed him the 538 playoff machine. He's thrilled. He wakes up every morning. 4% Ben. Okay, here we go.

We're going to do it, baby. So the teams at the bottom of that ranking, right? The Raiders are at 0.9%. The Steelers are at 2%. The Saints are at 3%. We are going to talk about the Saints today because it, Even though the math tells me it's incorrect, their chances of making it don't seem so far off. They'd have to beat the Eagles and beat the Panthers this week, which we'll get into.

They're probably not going to do that. But I included them in my 16 teams for our purposes here. Six teams that are in the playoffs or are on track to make the playoffs that I did not include, the Bengals, the Chiefs, the Bills, the Cowboys, the Niners and the Eagles. I did not include those teams because I think we all know those are the contenders. If you look at any metric right now over the last six weeks, those are the, six teams one through six in offensive and defensive DVOA combined. So the eye tests, the numbers, everything. We don't need to make cases for why those teams are dangerous. So we're excluding those

six teams. So we're left with 16 that have a chance to make the playoffs and are not considered true blue contenders. That's how I'm gaming the system and gaming this list. What we're going to do is we are going to rank those teams from 16 to 1. We're going to spend less time on some of them because we spend all the time we need to on all 16 teams will be here for three hours. So that's what we're going to do today. Before we do that, though, have to address some news. Before we started recording this show earlier this morning, JJ Watt on Twitter announced that he is retiring after the season.

Christmas was his last home game with the Arizona Cardinals, posted a very cute picture of him and his new baby and his wife. Right way to announce. Fantastic. I wanted to talk about this for a few different reasons. One, I feel like my career is weirdly linked to JJ Watts time in the NFL. His rookie year with the Texans was my first year at Grant Island. It was my first year in sports media as a professional.

His second year was 2012. It was the first year I really covered the NFL. And I remember in week two that season, they played Jacksonville. And back then, access to all 22 through NFL Game Pass was actually fantastic. It was a great service. It was very easy to use. And it was really the first time I had dug into the tape. And I was watching him in that game.

And I was like, this guy is an alien? Like, I just don't understand why he's this much better than everyone else on the field. And so that 2012 season, he was dominant. I mean, it was one of the best seasons we've ever seen a defensive player have. It was his second year in the league. And it was the first time I wrote about the NFL full time. I probably wrote about JJ Watt 15 times that year. And it was really cool this morning when people saw the announcement,

reached out to me and were like, I remember you writing about him all those times back in like 2012. And that's true. It was 10 years ago. And that a year later in the summer after the 2013 season, 2014, that summer, I went to Houston and spent some time with him and wrote a pretty big story about where he was at and some of the goals that he had and where he was in the league and what kind of contributed to his brilliance and all of that.

And so it's strange to me. The fact that it's a decade later and he's announcing his retirement and, you I'm 10 years into my career. I just wanted to kind of take a minute to take a step back and celebrate the kind of player that he was because for people like you who were eight years old in 2012, it's hard to, I think, comprehend just how dominant J.J. Watt was playing and play out from 2012 through 2015. His peak was unlike anything I think we've seen in my lifetime for a defensive player

that includes Aaron Donald. and I don't know if we're going to see something like that again. He had about 120 tackles for loss in four seasons. Casual. I mean, just absolutely insane. Like all of the splash plays, he won defensive player of the year three times over that stretch. He is a no doubt about it,

first ballot Hall of Fame player. One of the best players I've ever seen. Really, the first player that as I started my career was that level of dominance. And I'm going to remember it finally, like watching him and kind of getting to celebrate those. years early on in his career is one of my favorite times covering the NFL. And it was a pleasure, I guess is what I would say. Yeah. The TFL stats are my favorite ones. He had 39 TFLs in 2012. It's the most TFLs in the single season by 10. Tied for second with 29 a piece, or JJ Watt in

2015 and J.J. Watt in 2014. And then you start getting to different names with Chandler Jones and for it's the ability to produce that much against the run behind line of scrimmage at defensive end right he's not even playing on the interior it's like half of the runs are going the other direction they're not even headed his way is it was a testament to what he was and it's funny because like you make the the the joke about the age because of course you do uh it's it's it's my memories of j j wott are like being in high school and arguing j j wott erin donald who's the best like he's he's like like i think of j j wott in terms of like dumb sports arguments when like you and your friends were old to have phones and Google.

Like that's, that's what I think of him as. And that to me is fun for a whole separate reason. Just because like when we go and we look back on this era of football, we will define it by Aaron Donald, define it by his, you know, in terms of this era of defensive football,

we'll define it by Aaron Donald and define it by his production. But this is, this is the earliest era of football that like I have that like, you know, like working mature memory of. And I'll remember that there's a way in which this era is not defined by Donald. There's a way that Watt stays healthy in 2016, healthy in 2017,

and it's defined by Watt. And that like, you know, that's a, That's going to be a fun, what it for a long time. But even though we got the injuries and, you know, the end of the career didn't have the same production as the early career did, that five-year stretch, four-year stretch, whatever it was, man. It won't be matched. It'll never be matched that much production for a player on the defensive line. The production is what sets it apart, right?

I think I said this today. If you wanted to compare the overall play-to-play impact that him and Donald have, it's probably on the same level. But the splash plays are what makes it different. The TFL stats are inconceivable. that they're so huge, but it's also the passes deflected. The amount of badded passes he had over that four-year stretch. I mean, he was up there with like

defensive backs and linebackers for stretches of that time and how many balls he was getting his hands on. It was absolutely insane. And there are a couple moments that stick with me. The game that he had against the bills in 2014, that's the one that is the craziest

in my mind. He didn't have a sack and he absolutely wrecked the game. He had 15 pressures in that game. He had nine quarterback hits and he returned an interception for a touchdown. They won the game 23 to 17. He took over the game and he did not have a sack. He was in the backfield every single time the bills threw the ball in that game.

I still remember it vividly. I watched it at a bar in Los Angeles. I was like 26 years old. That's the type of impact he had and kind of how large he looms in my memory is that I remember specific moments and where I was watching. him during that stretch of my career because that's just kind of what I did every week. I would go and just watch the Texans and watch what JJ Watt did. And the conversations I've gotten to have about him.

I remember talking to Wade Phillips for that story and just kind of talking about where JJ ranked compared to some of the guys that Wade Phillips had coached. And this is before he coached Aaron Donald, but he'd coached Reggie White and Bruce Smith and some of the greatest defensive players of all time. and just how much respect he had for what. And when you talk to offensive linemen about him, Mitchell Schwartz is tweeting about it today. I remember talking to Marshall Yondo about him.

He was just his own challenge, how many different ways he could win and how many rules he would break and just how difficult he was to account for in every aspect of the game. He was a one-of-one player. And that's how I'll remember him. And it's kind of crazy that this is the end for him.

But the last thing is he said a couple things to me in that story that really kind of, I remember still, like him saying them to me in the moment. We were in like a little conference room in the Texan Stadium in Houston. And we were talking about just everything he was putting in and how little personal time he had. And, you know, he was living like a like Rocky in Siberia. Yeah, this is when he was like going to the cabin in the offseason, right? Well, it was, we lived with his buddy.

Yeah, he was living with his buddy in his buddy's apartment. And it was like a little apartment complex in suburban Milwaukee. I went there. I went to the apartment and I saw it. It was just like a little spot that you'd live in with your 20-something friends. And he was J.J. Watt. It was just very strange. And I was like, you really think you got to live like this?

You got to do this every single day. And he said, you know, somebody's got to be the best ever at something. And as I see it right now, I wonder why it can't be me. I wonder why I can't be the best in the world at this for the very short time that I get to do it. And I'll play for 10 or 12 years. And then when that's over, I'll get to sit on my porch with my buddies. and get to have a beer and say, man,

that was pretty cool. And he's 33 years old. He's got his whole life ahead of him, and he gets to look back at this past decade and say, man, that was pretty cool. I won three defensive player of the year awards. I was one of the greatest players in NFL history.

And now I'm a fairly young man with my health intact, a legacy intact. So he's still playing pretty well. And now he gets to live the rest of his life. So it's cool stuff. It's very weird for me. It's like a little symbol of mortality. When you cover a guy,

start to finish like that with that sort of proximity and then see him walk. Should I talk about what age I was again when he was playing? Yeah, you go ahead. Yeah, that's certainly well. All right, let's dig into this. We're going to go 16 to 1 here in the wild card threat index. We'll probably run through the teams at the top here pretty quickly.

I'm curious who's at 16 for you. The least threatening team with a real chance to make the playoffs. Absolutely, the New Orleans Saints. I had no issue with this one. Oh, man. They are not number 16 for me. No, I do not take the Saints seriously. I appreciate the fact that Andy Dalton is still playing as mediocre of ball as Andy Dalton has always played.

It's still in his mid-30s. Alave is a nice young player. Rashid Shaheed, I can't say his name correctly, but I think they've got a nice little player there. Kamara, they've gotten a little bit healthier on the defense. I understand there's a lot going on there. They just don't have teeth. They don't scare me with what they do. Besides the creation of the shot play, besides like, all right,

Taysam Hill means they might convert a third and three on me that they otherwise wouldn't. They're not a high-scoring team. They're a team that avoids mistakes. They're defensively. They're still, like, structurally what they used to be. And, like, Alante Taylor is playing well. And, like, again, there's, like, pieces there that are solid, but we're in week 16.

I'm no longer about, like, oh, I can see how this is coming together. The fruit of the, the proof of the put-ins in the Eat-in. The Saints haven't been a terrifying and impressive, a scary team to me in a while. And so I, I, the Saints back door it through this terrible NFC South. Then, man, the Cowboys should rest the starters. I mean, just chill. It ain't a problem. I have the Titans at 16.

The Titans with Malik Willis and the state of the Titans defense, I comfortably have the Titans at 16. I have the Saints at 15 because the Saints defense is actually playing well. It's not the Saints defense of old, but down in and down out, they've been a plus defense for the last six weeks. And I think that they've settled in with their new personnel in a way they hadn't over the first half of the season.

I still have them at 15 because I agree with a lot of that, but I still think this version, of the Titans, if they were to sneak in, is the least daunting team that could possibly make the playoffs. So talk to me about the Titans with Malik Willis almost beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Because that was in my head the whole time I was trying to place the Titans. Their past defense and the state of that unit overall has crumbled since that game happened. If it was just a Malik Willis question, then I would have a little bit more respect and be a little bit more afraid of the Titans. But I think everything that's happened on the other side of the ball combined with the state of their offense, that's why they're sitting there for me.

I think among the four units, Titans' offense and defense, Saints' offense and defense, the Saints' defense is the best unit of those four as things currently stand. And that's why they're 15th to me. Yeah, so I have the Titans at 14. And the reason I have them there, like, besides the whole, like, you know, joke about hanging with the Chiefs and whatever. Like, with Willis, they can still do a lot in the running game that can really shorten a game. They can take the ball out of an opposing quarterback's hands. I think that lets them keep a game short and gross and ugly.

And the Titans, man, like, all they do is win those games. they haven't done it recently, their own five. Like, it seems like the luck has finally run out. But Tennessee's got a they've been there before-ism to them that, like, if they do have to play a playoff game with them. But they really haven't been there before because most of the players that they're playing have not been there before. Right.

So I think they're well coached. And I think that, like, Malik adds, has enough in his legs that, like, you have to not prepare for a mobile quarterback and the potential for, like, read option and stuff like that. And that's a little bit of a headache. They're 14 for me. At 15 and I have Tampa, right? And Tampa with New Orleans is a similar thing.

like this team has not been scary. At no point have I been worried about the team. There's not been a game this season. Like even when Tampa had the good first half against the Bengals, like, oh, is it? Here we go.

Is this it? No, it's not. Like, this is a, a, nobody that plays for the Buccaneers looks like they want to be on the football team

while they're out there, man. Like, they are old. They are struggling late in the season. They can't get things together. The coaching staff is not only doesn't know how to maximize the team. They are brazen.

They are proud of the fact that they don't know how they make it public. Oh, you want us to do play. action on first down. What do you guys know about football? We don't know a lot, but we know this, man. This is not good. This is not a good team. So I have a, uh, uh, New Orleans at 16, Tampa at 15 and then Tennessee at 14. I kind of did a little tiers thing. And all of those teams, including my, uh, my 13th ranked team are all in the, you know, I don't care at all. This doesn't scare me the least bit tier. Uh, looking at the Titans, uh, injury chart on pro football reference,

it's like the scene from the shining where all the blood comes out of the elevator. That's the amount of red that's the amount of red that's on this page right now. Other people hopefully will understand the reference. It's absolutely ridiculous how hurt they are. Okay, I have Washington at 14. Oh, I have Washington a little higher. I'm a shit in this. I didn't know what to do with Washington because I just don't trust the offensive

infrastructure right now at all. And not just the quarterback play. What's going on up front? Anything outside of the past catchers for them offensively, I'm severely worried about. idea that Carson Wentz could be the quarterback moving forward and that it might be their better option right now is a tad bit concerning to me. After those first two teams, I had some trouble with like these next five. And Washington was next for me. And I guess it's, yeah, the teams I

had ahead of Washington, I guess it's more so that I have more faith in what they can piece together on offense. But even that, I don't know if that's a good reason. Where did you have Washington? I have Washington at 10. When I, when I, when I, when I, when I, when I, when I, when I, when I, I look at threat index, or I'm talking about like, okay, how do I find a way to lose to this team that I should probably beat? What I worry about are takeover units. What I worry about is individual players or group of players that can just kind of kick your teeth in for 60 minutes. I do not want to deal with the squad receipt record. I don't want to deal with the head. Or the defensive line probably, right? Yes. And that's exactly. That was the other team. I was going to say. When they hold the ball, I, with the way Johan Dodson's been playing recently, I do not want to figure out, okay, I got to cover Terry, cover Johan Dotson, cover Curtis Samuel, who's going to be in the backfield, and they're all going to be in motion.

shit and like that's a headache and then the defensive line. Chase Young was in uniform this past week. I was like, oh, that's right. They have that guy. You haven't seen him in a bit. But Montez-Wed John Allen, Duran Payne. Like this is a, you know, Casey Two Hill, they're deep. You know what I'm saying?

Like, this is a good front. And so Washington to me, like, I'm an Eagles fan. The Eagles have two loss in the year of one as to Washington. So like I probably know better than most. The fact that they can win, they can win one. They can steal one on you. It's just the sort of team. Like, even that Niners game, like the score looks big.

And then you go back and you watch, like, they had big. plays called back and like the Niners had one cornerback injury and all of a sudden Washington's hitting some deep shots like Washington's just got like Heineke's not trustworthy. He turns the ball over. He is a liability. But they've got dudes I don't want to have to deal with. They're a headache to me as opposed to some of the teams I have below. Yeah, it's a very good point. And here's what I'm at with Washington. I've kind of written them off for this season because I have a lot of confidence in what they could look like next year with better quarterback play. That's just where they are in my mind. I've just kind of,

tabled the Washington football team for 2022 and thought, okay, when they have Derek Carr a year from now, I think this team is going to be really fun to watch and potentially scary. And I've probably done that too quickly compared to some of the other teams involved in this exercise. Now, Washington is the most quarterback away of a team this year and of a team the last few years where like people like bring up, oh, the Jets are quarterback away. You look at this Washington team, man. When St. Juist is healthy and the way Jamie Davis has improved. The office. offensive line's really weird. They got like all over 30 free agents. They got to figure that out. But other than that, man, they're very much a quarterback away. So I agree with you. It's easy to say like, oh, they'll be better later, so they're probably not real right now. But Heineke, like, he will attack man coverage and throw the football down the field. So all you need is like a crazy Terry Clash and a crazy Jahan Dotson catch. And all of a sudden, like, they're in scoring distance. One sack fumble. Yeah. Yeah. So they're volatile. I think that's a very good point. And I'm probably not giving them enough credence in this exercise. Okay. Who's next for you?

Yeah, so like I said, 16 Saints, 15 Tampa Bay, 14 Tennessee, 13 for me. I'm surprised you didn't say this team talking through at all. Is the Patriots? The Patriots mean nothing to me, man. Like, again, they're the last in my tier of like, I don't give a hoot. This is a boring, poorly coached team without dangerous weapons. Like, even if their defense gets me and gets me for a while and gets me in bad spots and gets turnovers. I have to deal with

Mac Jones angrily dirting the ball to Jacoby Myers while he yells at the sideline. Right? I have to tackle Ramandre. That's going to be annoying. That'll be physical for a little bit. Oh, shucks. But just offensively, there are no teeth. So unless I'm the Minnesota defense giving up 26 points on Thanksgiving or whatever it was, I'm not worried about having to outscore the team, having to outpace this team. It's okay, as long as we're not actively shooting ourselves in the foot and letting their defense, which has scored like six touchdowns this year,

score a seventh and score an eighth, and beat me that way. As long as I'm not killing myself in terms of how I play, I should be able to beat the Patriots. So the page, it's to me, toothless, not worried about them. When I did this first, when I had my initial list, I had them at 14. Okay. And then I thought about it a little bit more.

And I was like, I just cannot put them that low when the one-off Belichick bullshit game plan is just looming out there. And it's not like other years. Remember 2017 when they were like 30th in defensive DVOA? And they got absolutely lit up in the playoffs against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. But there were stretches where they could put together some reasonable games and even other seasons where they've been bad over the course of the entire season statistically on defense. But they've been able to string it together. They've been actively good on defense all year.

And I just worry about that one game where you score 12 points because they just catch you flush with one specific. way they think they can stop you. And they win a game 15 to 11 somehow with Mac Jones in the state of their offense. That's why I pushed them up a little bit further. They are. So since week eight, their second defensive DVOA, which is just like stupid. But it's ridiculous. Those numbers are jacked up by scoring. Like, they score so many points that their defense has been, I think, like, more productive than the actual talent implies just because of like how their turnovers actually generate points to them, keeps them in game, so on and so forth. It's a like, I don't see how a legitimate division winner, right?

Like, forget, you know, Tampa Bay. A legitimate division winner loses to the Patriots unless they are actively losing the game themselves. They're just like doing the mistakes, having the knucklehead stop, which Belichick can get you into those spots more than the average coach can. But also, like, the coaching staff in New England, besides Belichick is terrible. It's not good.

I don't know. They don't scare me. Yeah, you're probably right. I just, there are too many examples of what they've done in the past for me to put them that well. the balochic of it is tough. I have the Seahawks at 13. I just think that the offense has run out of steam a little bit. We talked about it on our recap show.

Gino is 17th and EPA per dropback over the past six weeks. The state of their offensive line concerns me. Abe Lucas has been banged up. They've had some issues on the interior. Tyler Lockett could play this week. It's not guaranteed that he's going to play. So what they're doing on offense right now, I think that they've just run out of gas a little bit,

and I still don't feel really good about the defense. So I just have them kind of one tier ahead of the first three that I mentioned. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm now up into my tier of like, okay, I care about you a little bit. I get, I get Seattle at 11 because I have Carolina at 12. I have Carolina at 12 as well. Yeah.

And so this Carolina, you know, this game against the Lions, it's, it's feathering the cap to Ben McAdoo. They're running like 12 personnel stuff. They got Ian Thomas and Tommy Trimble out there. They're running the bowl in a variety of ways. The fact they traded McCaffirley. away and they're doing this two-headed backfield with Chuba Hubbard and Don to Forman, both of whom look great.

Like, it is a testament to making chicken salad out of what you got and coaching to your players. Like, they are, this is our best group. Let's put our best group out there and let's, you know, play action stuff for Sam Donald. Let's maximize him. It's impressive. The offensively, has been really big for them. That front's playing well.

Then defensively, they always had talent. And they've had like, you know, some mercurial weeks and some, you know, some bad moments. But I've generally been a solid, you know, like the, the play of like a Frankie Louvo, right? is just a testament to like, they've got guys, right? They have playmakers defensively. With all of that said,

this team lost to the Steelers two weeks ago. They are not to be trusted, right? And so it's okay, like, yeah, they can have a game where they run all over the lions. They generate a huge lead. They control the clock. They're ripping off explosive run plays. But where was this two weeks,

like the week previous, right? They just day, week in, week out, they are creating stuff and finding stuff that sticks. And so, like, you know, they're going to bring something to the table you probably haven't seen. They're going to have tough drives

that are physical, group, but I don't, I, I, I have not seen any level of consistency in terms of week in week out who they've played and how they played them to fully believe in this team. So Carolina at 12 for me, Seattle, like I said, above them at 11. And the thing with Seattle is I don't want to deal with Metcalf and Lockett. I don't want to deal with with Gino when he's throwing the ball well. They have played in shootouts and they've won shootouts. So that stresses me out a little bit other than that, you know, I know how to beat this defense. I know how to beat this, this, this, front, like you said, this offensive front where you isolate those rookie tackles and you really

stress them out. And so there's aspects of Seattle that I think a little bit more scary in terms of dynamic playmaking has them above Carolina for me. Yeah, I like what Carolina is able to do at front about on both sides of the ball. And I think they have that potential in any single game. And that's what, and maybe I'm overrating what I just watched this weekend, but that offensive line group is really interesting. And when I'm building the case for why I'm optimistic about what Carolina could look like next year with new offensive coaching staff and some sort of of answer a quarterback, that offensive line and the group that they can bring back, combined with DJ Moore, it's a pretty interesting group of guys.

It's a pretty interesting nucleus of talent outside of even the star power that they have. They've been really lucky in the sense that they've had that group together almost the entire season. I don't know if they've had a starter miss a game this year. Haven't they played like 95% of their snaps with the same five? Yeah. All year. Yeah, it's been remarkable.

But that group, I think most of them will be back next year. Bozeman is a free agent. But other than that, they should have that group intact moving forward. So maybe that's another example like Washington where I have good feelings about what they could look like in the future. Maybe that's coloring what they are right now. But I just think the potential on upfront on both sides of the ball makes them a little bit dangerous in the way that Seattle is now right now. Yeah. The head coaching theories for Carolina are really fun, right?

Like Steve works on a good job. You always want to be careful keeping the interim, right? I think that they should go and they should hit the open market, see what they can get. With these defensive pieces, call up yourself at Damiro-Ryans, call up yourself a Lou Anorumo, call up yourself a Dan Quinn, let's do this thing, baby. Like, they got guys on the defensive side of the ball. The only reason I worry about that is because I need a plan on offense. After what it's looked like over the last couple of years, you know, their best moments were

the first month of the 2021 season where they were cooking on defense. Phil Snow was cooking with those guys that they had. but they just have not found an answer or a plan offensively in a very long time. And I think if they do go out and draft a quarterback, you know, if they end up with, I don't know, where are they right now picking? Probably. Well, like, if they don't make the playoffs here, then they're going to be picking like 15, right?

So they're eighth right now. Oh, right. Because I forgot that they're going to make the playoffs in 7 and 10. That's not bad. So, right, let's say they lose the bucks this week. Let's say they finish the season seven and a, 11 or 7 and 10. I always add one more game because I think I have to add another game. So let's say they finish the season 7 and 10 and they pick 8th or 9th.

They're a team that I could see with a couple of those extra picks they got in McAfre trade trying to come up for a quarterback because they need an answer there. And so if they can come away from the top 10 with a rookie quarterback and again, they have most of that offensive lineback. You drop in, you have DJ Moore, you have Terrace Marshall. I really want to make sure they have the. offensive plan solidified for whoever that quarterback ends up being. Because I don't want them to walk into a team with a defensive minded head coach and a first year coordinator, first year play call, or whatever it looks like, and have that guy to be,

had that guy be in a bad situation from the get-go. That would concern me. Yeah, right? You want to marry the play caller and the offensive coach by securing him head coach to do the rookie quarterback. I get that. At the same time, I want to see Domeco coach this. I want to see Domeco coach Jeremy Chin.

And are you going to keep that from me? Are you not going to let me have that? I want this for Panthers fans and whoever that. guy ends up being, that's their quarterback that does not get put in a shitty situation immediately. So I have the Patriots at 11 for all the reasons that I said. It's just the Belichick Black Magic Factor is still real to me. And I'm sure that there's nothing logical about that. Their offense is disgusting. Of all the offenses on this list, outside of maybe Tennessee with Mouik Willis, I think I have the least faith in the current state of the Patriots offense.

Yeah. Who else would it be? No, it's, it's like, and at least... Sam Donald was playing so much better than the men, Mac Jones is right now. And the important thing is, it's not even like, like, all we're playing really bad, but here's what we want to be in our identity. Here's we're going to try to figure out. They all don't like each other. Mac doesn't like the receivers.

The receivers don't like Mac. Mac doesn't like Matt Patricia. Patricia calls. Like, he hates everybody. Like, it's, nobody's happy. So why would I believe they're going to get better? Yeah, they have three spots on this list for me solely because of earned equity. That's the only reason.

It's just hard to pick against Bill. You had Washington at 10? Yep. I think that's totally reasonable. If I could do it over again, I think you've swayed me. I would probably have them higher. Speaking of earned equity, I have the bucks at 10. I just, I don't know why.

I just, there is some version of them out there still in my mind, mostly because they have that we can jump on you for one game defensive plan looming somewhere. I still believe that with bowls and with the players that they have on that. side of the ball. I think that they could be a problem for someone for a one game stretch. And even if it's Dallas, like, I just think that is looming somewhere. But I, there are obviously the concerns about their offense are very real. Even if you want to say, there's that game where Brady and the receivers somehow figure it out. The state of the offensive line is such that it's preventing them from being like an operational unit.

And like if they still like talking about earned equity, if they still had Bruce Ariens, sure, like Bruce has been around, man, Bruce has done this, multiple teams, multiple playoff runs, different locations, different ways. Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich have made it clear that they're not interested in playing winning football and offense. They've been explicit, like, short of saying, we don't want to score points to win games. They've said, we don't want to score points to win games. So I'm not, if you don't, if you're not going to try, I'm not going to believe you.

Like that, to me, I could not be more out on the bucks. Yeah. I understand that. Again, it's just one of those things that maybe it's the names and the laundry and other reasons that don't actually matter when it comes to this exercise. Right. But it's just tough when you got to actually put a number on a list. That's, that's where my.

my number nine team were coming up on, this was the team that got me in terms of, like, you know, earned equity and whatever. I have the Packers at nine. And I have the Packers higher than that. Yeah, see, so when I first started listing the Packers, I had the Packers down like the bottom tier. I was like, yeah, I don't take this team seriously. It's very clear to me that I don't.

I've seen the way that Rogers, you know, quiet protests the offense by just tucking up nine balls when he has open receivers. I've seen the way that defensively, Joe Barry is just the definition of insanity. I'm going to roll out the same stuff every single week. the same way every single week and act perplex when it happens every single week. And then I saw stinking little Matt Lothorn Aaron Rogers have never lost in December graphic. And I was like, oh, that's right. They tend to be really good. Late in these seasons, like obviously playoff issues and like, you know, Mike Patton's no problem for them. But they've

been really good late. And then you start looking at numbers. This team is sixth in DVOA since week eight. Their first and past defense DVOA since week eight. I didn't catch that. I didn't see that happened. You go and look at the quarterbacks they play and you feel a little bit better about that number, but they have objectively played much better football in the back half of the season, then they played in the front half of the season. They've done it by running the football and being diverse with their two back sets. It's not like Rogers is out here, like diming up Romeo Dobbs and Randall Cobb is fixed the passing game, and Christian Watson's developed. It's not like they're like what they were last year, what they were with Devante, but the running game works for them. The

offensive line has been much more steady. This whole David Bacdiari saga aside, like when they have their five out there, like Zach Tom played well, left tackle. Like, they, that front has become a lot more trustworthy. And then defensively, it's, they haven't fixed anything, but having seven first round picks and then two more big free agent contracts helps. You know what I'm saying? Like, all right, they bench Darnel Savage. Like, great.

You know, like, I don't really think Rudy Ford has actually changed that much. I just think it's hard to have a really, really, really bad defense when Jaira Alexander and Devondre Campbell and Kenny Clark and Roshan Gary and Preston Smith, whoever you want when all these talented players are out there, Quay Walker, right? it's difficult to just be bad. And so they've stepped up just by virtue of their talent lifting the boat. So Green Bay had them low. And I first,

I first did the list, I kind of understand my tears and let me see if I can poke holes. And then they just started to climb and I started to climb and they started to climb. And now I'm at the point where I'm like, yeah, Green Bay, I think I can beat them. I know how to beat them. I know where this defense is weak. But they are tough.

They got a lot of talent on that team and they're tough out. All right. So you're helpful with this because now you're in a situation. where the team that you root for is going to play the seven seed if the seven seed wins. So we're going to figure out exactly how dangerous that seven seed is if they go play against the Eagles. So you are more afraid as an Eagles fan of the Lions than you are of the Packers. Yeah. Yeah.

Detroit at any time can score 35 points. I don't like that. I don't like that at all. No, no, no, no. I am very fearful in the playoffs of offenses that can just pop. That can just like, you know, oh, shoot. we aren't dialed out on the play action stuff. We can't.

We don't have an Amon Ross St. Brown on third down answer. And they're just shooting DJ Chark down the field, shooting Jameson Williams down the field. They're just hunting big plays. And if I don't get a pass break of, if I have one safety with flat feet, I'm giving up seven. That scares me.

And that's the thing that the Packers don't do that. The Packers don't have the downfield passing game. They have not figured it out all season. So for the Packers to beat me to score points, they got a string drives together. It's going to give me more opportunities for a stop. Oh, see, I think Watson has given them an exploit. I think Watson has given them explosive play potential

in the way they did not have in the first half of the season. So Watson's downfield past, like his explosive production has been very heavily yards after the catch, right? Yes. Behind land of scrimmage, like intermediate stuff. And then obviously he had that 67-yard house call against my Eagles. Reed Blankenship in his first ever game was like, I know how to take an angle.

And then Christian Watson was just gone. So they're like absolutely like when they can get him the ball in stride and everything. But like that aspect of the offense, which requires like timing and trust and throw over the middle of the field. Aaron Rogers has been extremely disinterested in this season. So there's still like disharmony in the passing game that the lions are clicking on all cylinders in their passing game. All right. So I have those teams a little bit higher, which we can get to in a second.

I have the Giants at 9. Okay. I have the Giants at 8. Okay. So we're in a similar spot with that with that team. I just think that they have the potential offensively, even with no receivers, even with Daniel Jones, even with an offensive line that's been spotty, which understandable, they have a rookie right tackle and they've had some rotating pieces for most of the season, can still do some stuff. Yes.

Like, their efficiency throwing the football just by smoke and mirrors and gum and toothpicks and bullshit is remarkable. And I think for one single game, what Daibel and Kafka could do to the wrong sort of defense is very real. And I also just think that the volatility on defense is something that would frighten me a lot. a little bit. They've been on the wrong side of that volatility for most of the second half of the season. They've been one of the worst past defenses in the league. The lack of real secondary talent and personnel that they have has shown up in a big way. But there's still that game where they blitz 55% of the time.

They get two turnovers. Daniel Jones is somehow, he finishes like 18 of 24. He has four rushing first downs off scrambles. They hit one big play. that version of a Giants team is very easy for me to imagine in the playoffs. The way I keep talking about the Giants in the playoffs, they're like over 90% chance to make it, right? The way I keep talking about it is,

yeah, I keep saying I'm so excited to watch the Giants playoff game. The one, because they will only have one, because they will lose. But I can't wait to see what they do, right? Brian Davel's got some play. He's cooked up in like 2017, chilling in the Alabama offenses, watching Southern Miss going, oh, we should do that. and he's just been holding it for six years, waiting to be the head coach of a playoff game,

a triple reverse pass, they're going to have two fake punts. They're a chaos team. They're a volatility team. When I think I'm square better than the opponent, Carolina, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, New England, I think I'm square better. I love it.

When I think I got a chaos team that can just introduce variance, all right, I still think I'm better on paper. I absolutely do. I can beat Isaiah Hodgers. I can beat Nick McLeod. But this team invites rolls of the dice. And in doing so,

they level the playing field. They make luck matter more in a game. And when I'm the better team, I don't want luck to matter. So the Giants are absolutely a like, I'm not scared of them. I don't want to play them, though, because I don't want to deal with the way that they approach football. It's a testament to the coaching staff. You say the one playoff game. We are a Vikings win against the Packers and the Niners winning out away from the Vikings going to Minnesota

because the Vikings are now the three seed and the Niners are the two seed. The Vikings absolutely could lose to the Giants in that region. They almost lost on Saturday. Right? It took a 60 plus yard field goal, which my buddy at next-end stats, Kagan Abdu, he, he, he's a big Giants fan. He told me that since 2016, there have been like five 60-plus yard field goals that have been made less than two minutes left that have led to a lead change and three have been against the Giants. Just so unfortunate. It feels like five of them have been the Vikings this year.

It's unbelievable. So yeah, like that's the thing is I say like they're going to play the one playoff game. Well, if they get the Vikings, anybody can win. You know, the Vikings are a whole separate thing we're going to talk about. I think the way you said it with that defense and the variance, like they've been blitzing less recently, but they still have those pitches, right? They are a team that likes chaos.

They play you in difficult ways. They run Daniel Jones. They throw down the field. They do a lot of stuff that causes a lot of headaches. So the Giants are, again, like, do I think they're legit? No. Do I want to play them? Still no.

Who do you have at 9? You have the Giants at 8? Yeah, so I had the Packers at 9. Oh, the Packers at 9. Okay. So is at 7 for you? Yeah. And that's the top of my.

like, okay, these guys are a little bit of a headache tier. My next tier, which has three teams in it, is like, all right, I could see a run happening. I can talk myself into it. And seven for that is the New York Jets. Talk about takeover units, man. I don't want to play this defense. Get me away from this pass rush. Don't let me near it.

I don't want to try to sauce gardener, DJ Reed, Michael Carter. I don't want to handle it. I don't want to get hit all January, a whole game by Quincy Williams and by CJ Mosley and Kwan Alexander. I don't need this team speed in my life. No, thank you. And then offensively, when they have Mike White out there, I mean, Mike's got to stay healthy.

Mike's got to protect himself better. He can't just be like dealing with a nagging rib injury for the entirety of the playoffs. He's clear he's back. He's going to play this week. But when White's back there, they shoot. They get Garrett Wilson down the field. They get Corey Davis down the field. They do all their stupid little yak stuff.

They get Braxton Barrios moving around. They run their little CJ Usama, Tyler Conklin screens and like all this knucklehead stuff. And then all of a sudden, their white will push the ball. down the field on a one-on-one. And they have the receiver talent to make you pay for that. Like, Elijah Moore's woken up, right? Like, you forget just how many good skill position players they have, even with the running back injuries where they've just boopped Zonovan Bam Knight and

and been okay. So with White there, the offense is tenable. It's got some teeth to it. It's got some aggressive throws down the field. You think about that Vikings game, the way they're pushing the football. They die in the red zone, but like that's a noisy thing, just like the giants that were right there on Minnesota.

But really, it's that defense where if you tell me, you know, all like, you know, the Jets made it to like the divisional round. The Jets were like with the Chiefs late in the fourth quarter in the division round. I can promise you because their pass rush was just taken over games. This is one of the best pass rushes in the league. I would like to avoid it. Yeah, they're not, they're eighth for me. So we're in the exact same range for everything that you just, every reason that you just said.

I mean, this is still one of the best defenses in the league top to bottom. And I honestly do think that having Mike White playing gives the defense a different sort of of use than they have with Zach Wilson. I think that's very real. I think that it's a deflating presence when Zach Wilson has been in there. You could see it on the offense. and I think that it starts to wear on the defense a little bit. The way they came out against the Jags, I think is slightly influenced by the quarterback who's in the game.

I truly do believe that. And I think having Mike Whiteback, some of the numbers are a little bit inflated just because one of his three starts is against that Bears team that was not a functional NFL defense when he was playing. So that's something to keep in mind. But I'm with you. Like the defense can absolutely keep them alive. He can make the four or five throws that they can't get from any other quarterback on their. roster right now to unlock the skill position talent that they have. The offensive line, no matter who's playing quarterback, is still a concern.

That is the one area where it doesn't matter who the quarterback is. That's going to be a problem. If you look at it right now, the Jets win out and the Patriots lose one of their next two, Jets are in. Yeah. So the Jets have Seattle this week in Miami next week. It's no easy feat for them to win those next two games. But the Patriots have Buffalo in week 18.

And Buffalo will likely need that game to get the number one seat. So the Patriots losing one of the next two is a that's probably going to happen. So then the Jets only need to beat Seattle and then Miami in week 18 and we'll see what two his status is and who's playing quarterback for the Dolphins. A couple little uncertainties there. But it's not crazy for the Jets to make it. It's not like a 0.2% chance when they need all these things to fall in place. The AFC is big Seattle fans this week.

I'm very confident about that. If you're picking, Jets are Patriots, man. I do not want to see this Jets team. Yeah, 100%. I'm absolutely with you. All right, I have the Lions at 7. Okay. I have Lions at 5.

If they get the 7 seed, Minnesota is the 2 seed, I greatly prefer that. Not only because the Niners are obviously a better team than the Vikings, I think that this home and away split stuff for the Lions offense is also a outside and inside split stuff for the Lions offense. Them playing in a dome is much scarier to me than them playing anywhere outside. So if they can go to Minnesota and play inside in the wildcard round, I absolutely think they can beat the Vikings.

I mean, even just those two teams, we just saw them beat the Vikings at home. They were favored to beat the Vikings. But if they go to Philly, outside in whatever that weather is going to be in Philadelphia in January against this team, are you really afraid of the Lions offense? 3835 was the score of that week one game. game. And that was before the Lions even figured anything out. They were still making stuff up in

week one. The, the line, I think there's a trap with the Lions that's similar to the trap we talked about with Washington, where it's so easy to get a foot ahead and start thinking, right, 2023 with a different quarterback, what can this potentially look like, right? Where they are right now is Jared Gough in a comfortable command of an offense. Gough knows where his buckets are. He knows where his third down guys are, right? Abon-Ross, St. Brown and Khalif Raymond, they get designed up. They get the rubrouse. They get the releases. He knows how to get their play. action looks. He's willing to shoot the ball deep and he knows that Charc will pay him off. He knows that Jameson Williams will pay him off. He knows he can get yards

after the catch. And you've got all these excellent short yardage signs. One of the things about the lions that's really impressive is they're really, really good. Third and short, fourth and short, they've lost on more failed fourth down conversions because of how many they go for. Yeah. It seems like they're not like a great short yardage team. They're actually an excellent short yardage team. I don't think that whatsoever. They're, they only do that because they go for so many four downs. They've been fantastic in those situations. Yeah, so you have, you have a team that it's tough to get them off the field because they're going to play and use all four downs and they're going to be able to pick up that that extra yardage.

They're good after the catch. And golf is, for everything that Goff is and what he isn't for like, you know, okay, he's not mobile and he crumbles under pressure and all of that. He is, he knows how the offense, he's in total command of the offense. He knows where all of his buckets are. And that's when like the, when the Goff McVeigh offense was working, it was just this, this point guard distribution, right? This ability to always get to the right spot, get to the right read and then he delivers accurate footballs. If you can pressure him, you can throw them off? And that's why like, all right, like, can we avoid the 49ers, right?

And like how are we taking steps to the playoffs here? But it's like I said when we first started talking about where I had the lines ranked, I do not like playing teams that can put me in a boat race. If I'm the favorite team, if I'm the, the clearly better team, the higher seed, I do not want to see a pregame total of 52 and a half. That's what worries me. Now we're in a who has the ball late in the fourth quarter. Who has the missed field goal?

who has the fumbled snap? What's the one play that decides this? I don't want one play to decide if I'm the better team. So the lion's ability to pour points on and poor points on quickly has me spooked to play them more so than the Jets will have at 7 and then the Jags will have at 6. I think that's a totally reasonable argument. I am still concerned about the state of the defense,

even if it's been better. You notice how I didn't bring them up once. It was clever by me to kind of pretend it's only one half. And obviously, you know, your offense being better is the more important factor. It's always going to be the case even as you get into playoff football. You want a team that can put up points. We've seen that over the last few years.

That's the most important element of being a real team in the postseason. But I still think the defense can be such a letdown in any single game. We saw it against Carolina, but that's not the only game. We've seen that plenty. Kirk Cousins absolutely sliced and diced this team a couple weeks ago. So the defense and where it's at right now and being able to put those linebackers in the current state of that position in absolute hell, I think a lot of teams can accomplish that. I also think that, again, the home run splits are a little bit concerning to me and what

they look like throwing the football outside. And their running game has not been very good recently. Over the last six weeks, you know, they're 23rd in rushing success rate and EPA per rush. 23rd over the last six weeks. It's not just a one game blip against Carolina. So if they're going to go to Philadelphia and it's going to be 27 degrees and they're going to have to run the ball a little bit. I am concerned about their ability to do that because they have not shown an ability to do that consistently over the last six weeks, even though they've been able to throw the ball all over the yard against certain teams when they play at home. So I just think that there are enough little pieces and enough little holes in the argument for them that they're a little

bit lower to me, even though at their peak, they have arguably the scariest offense left on this list. Yeah, the running game thing is starting to bother me. Running back by committee has jumped the shark. Like, yeah, we get it. Like, the hot hand gets the touches. Like, congrats. You guys have developed a lot of talent. It's time to just put the ball in Jamal Williams' belly 15 times. Like, enough Justin Jackson. DeAndre Swift is a good third down back. We don't need to be doing this, right? Just commit to what you got. The other thing is I think they've spent less time, less resources developing their running game because of how impressive their passing game has been. And that's nice and that's good until right, you get golf in an outside windy game. And they're

like, oh, you know, it would be great if we could do right now. Run the football. Let's get back to that. So there's been a little bit of like an out of balance there. I think that's a sort of thing that can get corrected quickly though, because they've had that running game, right? It's just, okay, we got to go back and figure out where we want to put our sliders, 55%, 45%, what do we want to commit to here? The thing I did not think about that's like a very good point is that home road aspect

and what golfs looked like in the colder weather and with the wind. Again, like getting Minnesota is really, really important for that line team if they sneak into the playoffs. You play them as opposed to, right, having on a path that has you see the Eagles, has you see the Niners play outside, potentially play. in cold weather. That matters for Jared Gough a ton. Yeah, I typically don't really give a shit about stuff like that. But with them and with him, it does feel important in a way that it wouldn't with every single

team. All right. So where are you at right now? Lost track. So yeah, I had Jets at 7, lines at 5. This all in my tier of like, they worry me. And I have the Jags at 6. They're the last team in that tier for me.

I actually struggled to place Jacksonville a lot. I don't know about you, but I had a hard time figuring out where I wanted them to go. I did as well. At first I had them a little bit further down and then as I kept thinking about it, I kept pushing them up. So I have the Packers at six. And we talked about it a little bit. You mentioned the defensive stats. Those are, we're a little bit surprising to me. But I think that they figured out something a little bit with Rasul Douglas playing back outside and with benching Savage and with getting Devondre Campbell back, I think has been nice. Obviously he missed that stretch like four or five games in the middle of the season. They still have so much talent on that side of the ball. even if you have very little faith in the way that it's coached and some of the choices that they've made over there. I still think that won two games. They can absolutely put it together. And if they're healthy on offense,

I think that they have the potential to be dangerous. If Bakhtiari is playing, if Nyman isn't going to miss a bunch of time, if Aaron Jones can hopefully with a little bit less of a workload over the next couple weeks, be relatively healthy by the time of playoff start if they sneak in. And if Watson can continue to play.

I really do think he gives them more pop that they did not have in the first half of the season, whether it's after the catch, whatever, just an explosive element to their offense that they were lacking when he wasn't playing. So them at full strength, I just think that they have a puncher's chance to me on both sides of the ball in a way that's a little bit better than the Lions because I have more faith in the defense. The other thing about the Packers that probably deserves mention is it's not a very trustworthy playoff field of coaches, right?

Like, like, Siriani hasn't really, like, he's, you know, his one game wildcard round lost in his second year. You have, you know, Kevin O'Connell, right, is in his first year. He kind of hasn't really done the playoff run. He's obviously been on teams that have been on as the head coach. You got Kyle Shanahan. I love Kyle. I would do anything for Kyle. He's incredible.

Performance in January has been a thing that has been an issue for Kyle Shanahan teams, right? And you have, like, Dan Campbell, who's going to be his first time making playoff runs. Depending on who you get out of the NFC, right? Okay, you're getting Todd Bulls. Maybe you get Steve Wilkes, right? Like, it's just not a big. very playoff experienced NFC coaching field. And then there's Matt LaFlor, who's just been around, who's seen a lot of it.

And as generally I think coached well in the playoffs, they just had troubles with the defensive side of the ball. So there's also a coaching and a veteran quarterback advantage of the Packers have if they get there. I was going to say, you didn't mention Aaron Rogers in any of this, which even if it's been an up and down year for Aaron Rogers, there's always that game lingering out there somewhere where he can just get absolutely ridiculously hot. And I would be concerned about that. So to me, it's a health thing first and foremost.

If they can get healthy, I do think that they're scary. You're looking at their pads to the playoffs. If Washington loses one of their next two, which includes a game against the Browns, who have been really good defensively over the last six weeks in a way that's very surprising, it was shocked when I looked at the numbers. So they're playing a Browns team that is dangerous simply because they're stopping people right now, even if their offense is unwatchable. And then they play Dallas in week 18.

We'll see what Dallas has to play for. That'd be the only concern if you're Green Bay. But if Washington loses one of their next two games and the Packers went out, the Packers are in. That's it. That's all it takes. I mean, that's not a crazy scenario. So them getting in is something that I can picture and them being a problem if they do get in if they're close to full health. I think that that's why I have them as high as they do.

So I had the Jags at five. Talk about it. It was hard to place the Jags. I had them a little bit higher in the Packers simply because I think the offense is kind of rolling, man. What they can be offensively and what they look like when everything is clicking right now on that side of the ball, that's scary to me. And the way that he is playing right now, combined with a play caller that is just annoying as shit with some of the stuff that they're doing,

that is something that would worry me if I were a team in the AFC. Like right now, as it currently stands, the Ravens would go there as the 5C. They would go to Jacksonville. We just saw the Jags beat the Ravens. and then the Jags would go to Buffalo if Buffalo and everyone if everyone takes care of business, that means the Jags would go to Buffalo

in the divisional round. I could see them giving the Bill's problems in the divisional round if that were to happen. So that's why I have them so high. I'll tell you the other thing about the Jags that is important and hasn't really been talked about so much on Trevor,

so much on Doug, and appropriately so, they moved Darius Williams to outside corner and Tyson Campbell's been playing well. And since they moved those two guys to outside corner, the defense makes more sense because the spine is weak, right? Interior, they don't have like a great run stuffer. Their linebackers are young players, right,

FOIA Luick-Connor, the big contract, Chad Mumma, rotating in for Devin Lloyd, then safety, right, where they got Andrew Wingard taking snaps. The spine is weak. But when your outside corners can play really well, you can generate a lot of resources. You can put a lot of bodies in the middle of the field and help solve some of those problems.

You don't get run on as easier because the safeties can play lower. They can play more aggressively against the run. You can fill those areas with zone players. you make those windows smaller. That's where you've been beating the Jaguars. And they've been a little bit better there recently. And you watch the film, you try to figure out why it's because the outside is strong.

And so they're able to pour more resources there. So I like the play they've gone to the outside corners. I love the play you've gotten out of Trevor Lawrence. I am worried about the front, the offensive line. Because that Lions game, I can't get out of my mind. We're like, if the Lions, they're not coming in with that great pass rush. Oh, man, like Ayn Hudgson, Romeo, Quarra, you know, dominating. Alie McNeill.

And Luke Fortner, who's their center. I think it's done a nice job as a rookie growth. in year over year, or not year of year, week over week, he's a rookie. But he's six foot six, 300. It's a very weird build for a center and he just loses... Him and he's a poachish in a league of their own. Yeah, I know. He just loses to these like real big stout bodies. And then they got Tyler Shatley playing left guard and teams have zeroed on Tyler Shatley. He watched the last few weeks when when, when defenses decide, hey, let's go get a bucket. Let's go get an early down rush. Right. The Jets first drive, first third down.

What they do? Manufactured to Quinn and Williams first Tyler Shatley one-on-one. And Quinn won that rep immediately. So they have pass protection problems that do worry me in terms of if they get into that AFC playoff picture and they start playing some of the really good fronts, like even the Buffalo without Vaughn, I think they're going to struggle to pass protect. And so that was the thing. I end up with them at six because I believe in the star power of Lawrence. I believe in some of the outside players that they've gotten, the improvements, the young players who've gotten better. The thing that really is is tough for me to get my eyes past is the offensive front. That's interesting. I totally reasonable. They're also banged up,

A lot of those guys are on an injury report right now. Well, Cam Robinson out, yeah. Well, Cam Robinson is right. Walker Little's been fine. I mean, if you're going to have a backup left tackle play, he's been much better than a lot of swing tackles around the league would be in that situation. The interior, like you said, that that play against Quinn and Williams sticks out in my mind.

And Scherf's got dinged up last game. Juan Taylor's on the injury report. So that's a concern I had not thought about. I'm still worried about the defense. I just think they've been so inconsistent throughout the entire year. Even if they have that maybe solve at that outside corner spot, I'm still worried about just the state. of the defense overall.

No, I would agree. Generally, the defense is inconsistent. I think they've been better. I think they're playing some of their best ball, especially on the outside against the pass in the last few weeks. I think even the Cowboys game, like, you go and you watch that back, like Dallas scored a lot of points.

They're throwing the football well, but you go and looking like where Dallas is getting their production and how difficult it is to get it. Like, they put well in. Tough completions. Yeah, really tough completions in that game. Dak, frigate Prescott, man. This is not the point of the pod, but holy Moses.

Portray Herndon was doing his best, man. He really was. Yeah, he was living out there. the Jags are still volatile. They're still a young team. The Jags are still very much about 2023, Calvin Ridley trade and everything that comes after that. But still right now, there's danger.

There's danger because Doug's been around. Doug, he said, it's just a thorn, man. Doug is an issue. And Trevor's playing the best ball of his career. So you got a good head coach and good quarterback. You got a fighter's chance. If we're stacking up the most annoying play callers on this list, independent of offensive talent,

I think Kafka Dayball is probably one. And I would probably say that Doug is two. Yeah. Did you say that's fair? I would. The best thing about Doug's, like I watched that offense so much as an Eagles rider and his Eagles fan

and then like I've seen it a bit like this year, Jags in and out whatever, and then I went and I wrote Trevor Lawrence piece. And I forgot how when like some offenses when they have a week, if they see a weak point in your defense, like, all right, we're going to attack it.

Here's what we're going to attack it. We're going to attack it with this route, with this player, with this combination. Doug sees a weak point and then he goes, here's how we're going to attack it. There's just like a menu of 19 different things. Like, oh, you're a penetration front? How do you feel about screen after reverse,

after a throwback, after quick game, after screen. He just hit the menu this guy's got. It just makes him so hard to get a thumb on his pulse. He's so much fun. Yeah, I really enjoyed the Cowboys game. And then even watching the early part of that Jets game when it was raining and they were throwing the ball two yards in the air every single time they put it in the air. And it was, again, screen, the play action screen, little slip route.

I mean, just all of those different ways to get the ball in those guys' hands when it was pouring outside. He just found answers to a lot of problems this year in ways that I find very. fun. All right. So you have the Jags at six. Who do you have at five? Five for me is the lines. And that finishes that finishes that these guys are good, but I still feel okay tier. The final tier with four teams is the, yeah, these guys might actually

be legit contenders tier. So we have four teams. We have the same four teams in that final tier, which is interesting. Yeah. All right, so who do you have at four? So four for me is the Vikings. I've recently decided to heel turn on the Vikings. I'm just, if once you, once you execute a 33 point comeback, I'm in,

I don't know how you did this. I don't know what sacrifices to which gods you executed, but you did it. And so I can't argue with it. Like, if you're just going to win every game, then you're going to win every game. The reasons that escape me, but go for it. Why not? The defense is so susceptible that it's tough to rank them above the other teams, even like the other teams in this tier who have shaky defenses. The defense, it's so clear how to beat it. They let you get easy stuff on them. They're going to force themselves to play in shootouts. They're going to ask themselves to get more and more Kirk Cousins' fourth quarter comebacks, but he's got like seven of them on the season or whatever it is. And here they are.

And they're going to have two home playoff games. It would appear right. There's a chance to go three seed. But they're going to have at least one home playoff game. And every hole they could dig themselves into, every bad spot, every pickle they could find themselves in the fourth quarter. They've been there before and worse. So why not? You know what I mean? I don't rank them among these other teams in this group, but it was tough to knock them a tier below. Like they're here. They've only lost three games and talk about takeover players, if Justin Jefferson decides to beat you, just take your ball and go home. If he decides to beat you, he decides to beat you, ask the bills, game over, right? And so the Minnesota, as fun as they are to joke about and make memes about,

here they are. And you can't, you can't deny the fact that they are here in this place with these home playoff games. I'm kind of in the same place where it's like, I got to fuck it, whatever. I'm just over it. Like, I'm into it now. And that's why I have them at four partially because of that. And there are other reasons. So the Justin Jefferson thing is the number one. If I'm listing off the reasons why I think that this team is more dangerous than the teams listed ahead of me. It's because in any given game, they're going to have the best player because he's out there. That's how good he's playing right now. In 2005, the Bears had this fantastic defense. They gave up 12.6 points per game. It was the second year

of the Lovie Smith era. Erlocker was at the peak of his powers. Mike Brown was a superstar. They had Tommy Harris was playing incredible football. They had Lance Briggs, Peanut Tillman. They were awesome. They were the best defense in the NFL. They finished that season with an 11 and 5 record. They hosted the 12 and 4 Carolina Panthers at Soldier Field in the middle of January that year. Steve Smith had 12 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Healthy. It was one of the most singularly dominant performances I have ever seen from a single player in a playoff game.

And as I've thought about Justin Jefferson this year, I keep going back to that game and like what one dude can do for you even against the best defense in the NFL. It helped that they were playing against Rex Grossman who went 17 of 41 in that game. But still, they put up 29 points against a team that had allowed 12 over the course of the regular season. Yeah. The, uh, and as the special part of like Justin Jefferson takeover potential is how he takes over games, right? Justin Jefferson, unbelievable route runner, great separator. He's good after the catch. Like all the stuff that we see. But the, the, the, the, the, The stat, the next-gen stats always puts out as the important one.

The catches he makes with completion percent, like, you know, expected below 50 percent. The acrobatic catches, the one-handed catch, the up against the sideline catches. He quite literally is they, you know, is the F-It 18s down there somewhere player. That's who he is. It's just like, Kirk, get the ball somewhere near me and I will make you correct. And that, like, that's why he's such a trap door. That's why he's such a break glass in case of emergency player. And so, okay, the Vikings are down 17 points in the fourth quarter.

All right. now instead of waiting until second down to throw it at Jefferson, then you're going to start throwing him at first down, and he's going to pay him off. And so it becomes difficult to count them out. Ask any team that's played them this year. You can't count them out until it's triple zeros, man.

Part of the issue is that it doesn't matter what you do to him. I mean, we just saw the last touchdown against the Giants, even if you were going to bracket him in the biggest moment of the game, he has shown an ability to just shred teams that try to double him in all these situations. He started running that backside dig against, like, bracket where he runs it with the pace and with the body positioning that he knows.

knows he's got two guys on him and he's manipulating the dude behind him or looking at the in front of him. He doesn't even run it as if he's single cover anymore. He runs it to beat double coverage. That's the nature of where this guy's at in his career. The idea that he can do that is what's so scary. And every place he can line up, the different ways they can get him the ball. We talked about it on the Saturday show.

The fact that it was a third and 11 screen in money time when they needed him to make a play, and that's how they're getting him the ball. It's absolutely ridiculous all the ways that he can torch you. So that's where it starts. The other thing is against, man coverage, they were awful early in the season. They were seeing a ton of it. Before Hawkinson got there, Kirk was 31st among 42 quarterbacks and EPA per dropback

against man coverage. Since Hawkinson got there, it's 0.31 EPA per dropback against man, which is like fourth in the NFL. And they're seeing a little bit less of it. And I think that trade specifically, that's what I was interested in, is they can get one more guy that can consistently beat man coverage because teams aren't afraid to play against them doing it. They're going to double Jefferson because they don't think anybody else can hurt them, even with the one on the field. And that has changed since

Hawkinson got there. And I do think that's why we've seen a little bit of a change in the ceiling of their passing offense since he arrived. They've also been more willing to throw the ball down the field since he got there. So I think those two factors are really important to me. I am still absolutely terrified about the state of the interior of their offensive line. It's been that way all year. And that has not changed now that they're playing with a backup center. Yes. And Brad Bray was the best guy they had on that interior, right? And, like, I think Ingram's gotten more guff than he's needed to get, just because, like, the tackles have played so well

and the entire offense has been so good. He's also had some very visible, awful low points. Like, his low light reel is up there with anybody's this season. Right. It's like, all right, you get beat by a good defensive tackle. That's one thing. You step on your quarterback multiple times, so he's trying to leave the center in the season.

He's ended up on his backside a lot of times this year, a lot of times. And I'm talking about Ingram, not cousins. Yeah. So it is difficult. I do agree that the interior is a weak point, but they've also done a really good job of masking it over the course of the season. Like that's been the most impressive thing for me with O'Connell. It's just like they're not really running like the golf stuff that we would expect them to run with cousins.

They're running more of the staffer stuff if you're just talking about like Rams' offenses of the past. But they've still found a way to protect their interior offensive line, which I think is huge kudos to that offensive coaching staff. I trust this Vikings offense a lot at this point. I think the Hawkinson point is really well taken. He hasn't even like really paid them off. He's like dropping balls in the end zone and stuff. It's just having another viable dude just to make man coverage more difficult for you to execute.

For me, it's all the defense. It's just I talk about toothless, right? I was saying toothless for the bottom tier. This defense deserves to be by itself in the bottom tier in terms of good offenses are not going to struggle to find yardage, find first downs, find conversions to find scoring plays against Ed Donatel's group. I am glad they're blitzing more just because I wanted them to do some thing different. I am not overly enthusiastic or optimistic about what that group can do, but I think them just trying something that's a little bit different than they were over that

stretch where they were getting absolutely hammered consistently is slightly encouraging, but I'm not excited about them. I'm totally with you on that. All right. Who do you have a three? Three for me is tough. In large parts, we just don't know what the health of two at Tunguvaloa is. I got the dolphins. I had the Lions at five on that idea of like, hey, I don't want to play the team that can score 35. If two is healthy and is guaranteed playing in the playoffs, the dolphins might be one. I just don't

talk about things I don't want to deal with. This offense, like, even with like the degree to which there's a blueprint out there, like teams have been playing them in different ways. They've been pressing coverage a lot more. Like, there's absolutely stuff that's helping. It's just like barely staunching the bleeding, though. It's not solving the problem. It's just slowing it and stemming it.

The Jalen Waddle touchdown against the Packers, the Trent Sherfield touchdown against the Niners. These are cases in point the Tarek Hill touchdown against the, the Chargers, both the fumble run after the catch one and the breast coverage 101, where Michael Davis heel clicks and it's over. It just serves as a reminder. And this is what I've always said about the Dolphins offense all year.

When you make a mistake defensively against 31 teams in the league, they get a 25-30-yard gain on you. When you make a mistake against the dolphins, they score seven points. It doesn't matter from where. They're at their own one. You make a mistake. They're going 99 yards.

That's what this team speed does. and then the speed, the rapidness with which they play, with which two throws the football, one mistake, one trip up, seven. And having to deal with that in the playoffs is terrifying, because it's just coin flips can kill me. I get two plays go the wrong way. I get one pass interference,

one holding call that didn't get called. I got one safety miscommunicating. All of a sudden the dolphins put up 21, ask the Ravens, 28 points in a quarter, man. They get on top of you like nobody else does. So that offense with Tua in there would be like, you know, to me, like DefConFie, like the thing I do not want to see the most.

With, as it is, we don't really know what to a, you know, he's in the concussion protocol. We don't know how quickly he's going to be able to get out of the protocol. If he's going to want to get out of the protocol, this season, very movable situation. And then whether they're one or three, two is healthy or not, defensively, they've got some stuff that works for them. The pass rush has been better with Bradley Chubb there. Obviously, Chub's doing with an injury of his own. I can get my guys in the secondary. I can pick on those dudes, but they do blitz and they do rotate coverages and they have great safety in Javon Holland.

They have great tacklers. the gate behind the line of scrimmage. This defense does have sustainable pieces to it. It's not a perfect defense. It's not a 90s, but it does have legitness to it. So even if they don't have Tua, there's still the team speed you got to deal with,

and then defensively, they can cause problems for you. So the Dolphins, very legit. It's just we don't know how legit because we don't know what Tua status is. I have them at three as well for all those reasons. I just think that the quick strike ability and what they can do in any given quarter, like there's the basketball team that can go on runs.

And that's scary to me. And even if they play Kansas City, in the first round. That's currently how it would be if they were the 7th scene and they went to KC. This is an offense that can theoretically go blow for blow with the Chief's offense. And they're just aren't that many of those. So that's why I have them up here. I'm a little bit worried about just the way the two has played over the last month and your ability to get him. And I think that we've seen Spags do some just crazy game plan shit in previous playoff games over the years. And I think that that kind of game is also looming for him. So even if he does play, I think that factor in it. is why they're a little bit lower to me,

but it's the explosive offense element. Any team that can score 35 immediately is going to be really, really scary no matter who they're playing against. Yeah, it's that fourth quarter against the Ravens, where it's like the Ravens played them well, good scheme, executed well, didn't even like, it's not even like turnover mistakes.

It's not even like penalty mistakes. It's just little stuff. And when you get, when you give this Dolphins offense, it's the best thing about Mike McDaniel. It's the most impressive thing. When you give them an inch, he takes a mile. in a way no other coach does.

Just one little issue on one play and boom, house call. That's just terrible. It's so, so, so scary to play against. So I'm very interested to see what you're one and your two are because the most difficult thing for me was figuring out these top two teams, Baltimore and the Chargers. But the Dolphins absolutely deserve an honorable gold medal for what they might be with Tua pending his health over the next few weeks.

I have the Chargers at two. Who do you have it, too? I have the Chargers at two. I was so, I have them at one and at two, and I scrambled it. and I changed it like two minutes before I got on the call. All right, walk me through it. Elite quarterback, I would not like to play.

I'm going to have to play one eventually. I would not like to play one a week early, and that's the case with Justin Herbert, and it's the case with Lamar Jackson. With the Chargers passing game, the improvements have been clear. It's better than what the Ravens are going to bring out. Keenan Allen is healthier.

He's definitely not healthy because he tried to turn up field after catching that little flea flicker pass. It simply could not. So Keenan's not 100%, but Keenan and then Mike Williams coming back from the ankle injury, they have their full gamut of pass catching weapons back, and that makes the passing game better. Here's the problem.

It also enables Joe Lombardi. And this is the thing that to me for the Chargers is most frustrating. When they had their wide receiver issues and they had offensive line injuries, right tackle was a problem. They had a rookie left tackle, Jamari Sailor starting. When they had all these problems, Joe Lombardi was doing the good thing. It was move in the pocket, move the launch point, rollouts, play action, design get Herbert out from this pocket. We don't trust this pocket. And now the office line's

playing a little bit better. Sailor has to settle in. I think he's getting solid play from the left tackle. Decent quality play for like a late rookie. Good stuff. Trey Pipkins at right tackled. Zion Johnson at right guard. Now the rookie has just gotten better week and week out. They're getting better play from their line. And because Keenan and Mike Williams are back, you know what Joe Lombardi's doing? Not moving the pocket anymore. It was working. It was helping. It was good for the offense. Herbert throw on the move is astounding. The ESPN put up the stat. 64% completion percentage outside of the pocket this year. Get out of Dodge.

That's unbelievable. And the moment the offensive line shows a little bit of an improvement and the wide receivers get healthy again, Lombardi puts himself right back in his little square box. There's three-step drop. The charges have given up like 20-odd sacks for the last five weeks. The sack stuff is wild. I was going to talk about it. It's insane.

And Herbert has generally been like a good sack avoid or get rid of the ball quickly, low time to throw. He's still low-time to throw. He's still low-aid. So what's going on? They're not moving them. They're not giving him designed exits from the pocket. And so it collapses on him, right? Look at those colts sacks. It's not like one guy's being one guy and Herbert can't make him miss.

It's crushing. It's suffocating. It's everybody's losing. There's no reason to be playing these five guys in protection against those four dude for the Colts, let alone for aFC playoff teams. And that left meat on the bone. There's so much meat left on the bone offensive for the Chargers and for the Ravens. But that one particularly has got my goat right now.

both of these defenses are improving. Staley defense played better for the last six weeks. This is Mike McDonald defense, man. I'd tell you, like get Roquan Smith in the building, you know, stop with the injuries at corner a little bit. It's been a better to tie us Bowser's back. It's been better. It's been solid for six weeks.

So both defenses can win them games. Both guys have elite quarterbacks. They are fuel to adjusters. They are tendency breakers. They are world enders. And both offensive coordinators leave me on the bone. So it's really a picker poison in terms of who you don't want to see. I favor seeing the Chargers and Joe Lombardi letting me rush and tackle Justin Herbert and get those sacks over facing Lamar and having to deal with the calculus change, having to deal with the 11 on 11, having to deal with the quarterback run game.

But really, like, it's very much picker poison between the two. I am genuinely concerned about the protection issues and the sack problem for the Chargers. Like, those numbers are stark. So over the first 10 weeks of the season, Justin Herbert had a 3.0 sack percentage. was the best in the NFL. We were talking about it. We were talking about how crazy it is that even with our offensive line injuries, this is a guy who just does not take negative plays.

Over the last six weeks, it's gone from 3% of his total dropbacks to 9.2. It was best in the league. Now he's 23rd among the 27 quarterbacks who've attempted to 100 passes over the last six weeks. That's insanity. It's shocking to watch him take four sacks a game. And I just looked it up while you were talking.

With Mike Williams and Tina Allen on the field together, 8% of his dropbacks end in a sec. Yes. Because they think that... 8%. Because they have wide receiver talent, they're like, all right, sick. Like, Justin and Lamarthe,

this is also on Justin, think, okay, I'm going to be able to get through the reads and get to the backside. I better receivers are the other. Just work from the pocket. Exactly. We're going to get it done. Like, this is the way our offense works.

No, it's stupid. It's a dumb offense. Don't do this. I was shocked to see those numbers. But it felt like that. When I was watching them over the time, the last few weeks. Man, why does this feel so disjointed? And then you look at a box score and I think last night he got sacked four times. Every game, it seems like he's

taken three or four sacks. And that just never happened before. So that emerging as a new problem for the Chargers offense, the moment they get their pass catchers back, that's been really fun. So that's my concern is that even with those guys on the field and even if I really like the personnel and the quarterback now, that issue cropping up this late in the season, that would worry me. I am, the reason that there's high on the list, though, is that I'm just picking the talent. I'm just saying the quarterback is that good. What he can do over a single game with those guys on the field

is just so much better than a lot of the other offenses on this list combined with what the defense is doing. They are number one in success rate against the past over the last six weeks. Number one. Brandon. Every time I'm out. Every time

I think I'm out. I was so close, man. Every single time. They're fourth in defensive DVOA over the last six weeks. And what's fun is watching them do it in a different way. The amount of pressure that they've brought this year and how they've really relied on that and leaned on that, especially on third down, is different than what we've seen from them. They did a little bit last year. But it's not really in his DNA to play like this. But they've kind of leaned into that this year.

They're blitzing on like 37% of third down snaps over the last six weeks, which is sixth in the NFL. And they're dominant when they do it. Their fourth in EPA per drop back on third down. It's helped Kenneth Murray. They've figured out how to get good reps out of Kenneth Murray. That's like a national treasure plot, man. That's unbelievable. Joey's not back.

Joey both of my getting back on this defense, dude. I hate how much I believe in this group right now. I really, really wish I didn't. But that's where we are right. That's where we are. So I just, if they can do something to push that sack number down, that is really what's holding the back offensively because they were awful running the ball over the first half of the year.

They've actually gotten a little bit better on the ground over the last six weeks or so, but it's all the sacks that they're taken. It's short-circuiting drives. It's been a huge issue. They've also been really bad in the red zone over the last couple games. So I think that, like you said before, that's often pretty volatile, a little bit better luck in the red zone. And if they just aren't taking so many sacks, I think that's going to be the biggest thing.

You want to solve the red zone problems? Throw the ball in first and goal. They went first and goal from the 10. They went run, run on first and goal from the 10, second and goal from the eight, got to third and goal from the four, and then tried to throw the football. So they just spent two plays condensing the amount of space they could use to then throw on third and goal and Gerald Everett could exit a pick route and then Herbert had to dirt the ball. He's, guys, he's so good.

Guys, guys, guys, he's so good. Please just let him throw on first and goal. All right. We both have the Ravens at number one. I don't feel good about it. I do. I've been comfortable staying on Ravens Island as people, I know you, I know you have been.

I just, the defense has been excellent over the second half of the season. Okay. Here's my concern with this. Over the last six weeks, do you want to hear the quarterbacks of the Ravens that played against? Okay. Baker Mayfield. Trevor Lawrence, who went 29 of 37 for 321, an average 0.31 EPA per dropback. Healthy.

Russell Wilson. Kenny Pickett, Deshawn Watson, Desmond Ritter. It's not great. It's not great. It's not great. Here's my entire Ravens argument. They lost week two to the dolphins, 28 point quarter in the Miami Heat.

Don Stens game. They had a 90% chance to win the game. They lost to the bills on the, went forward on fourth and goal from the one, didn't get it driving, and the bills walked all the down the field scored. They lost to the Giants on a late game fumble, and they lost to the Jaguars on a two-point conversion.

And then those are the four games Lamar has lost for them, right? Since then, it's been four weeks of Huntley, and they lost to the Browns one of those weeks. there's like a legitimately coin flips like weighted coin flips they had 90% 95% chance to win these games there's a way that like yeah this raven's team has got their issues but they're like 12 and 3 right now like there there there's a way their record has them like securing the a fc north this is an extremely well-coached team that walks out with great game plans every single week and still has and this is so important to know like Lamar is not like okay like Mahomes Alan Herbert like he's somewhere like in

like that like five to eight you know quarterback overall ranking, like, sure. But in terms of a one-off, one-week game, in terms of inconvenience to game plan against, in terms of the way he changes things, Lamar is second only to Mahomes in terms of, like, inconvenience, in terms of difficulty, in terms of the way he can

equalize the scales. And that's what he does with this horrible receiver core and this banged-up offensive line and everything. He equalizes, more so than a Herbert does. And that's why, like, I am okay with playing the Ravens. I am not okay with playing Lamar Jackson. I don't want to deal with it. I want to avoid the headache. That's why they're the biggest threat for me on the wildcard index.

Yeah, among all of the quarterbacks in the league, I'm still giving Josh Allen that nod for the guy who equalizes the most outside of Mojoms. But I think that your point is well taken. And that is why they're number one for me is that there are so many reasons as to why they shouldn't be the state of this passing game, the state of the receiving core, the fact that their defensive numbers are probably pumped up a little bit by the teams that they've played against. but what he can do in a single game. And also, I feel better about their offensive line than almost any other offensive line in this entire conversation. Like the guys that they have up front and what they can do on the ground. Him being in there, what he can do on the ground game, and him making three or four plays with his legs,

two or three big throws, and how well their defense is playing. I actually do have faith in their defense. Even though I do think it's a little bit inflated, I think they have good players. I think they've been well coached. I think they've really settled in over the second half of the season. with a new coordinator with a lot of new pieces. Marcus Williams is back now.

At Rokon-Smith trade, like you mentioned, top to bottom, I think defensively they're very good. On offense, I just think that for a single game, the five or six plays that he can make, even if I have a lot of trepidation about the state of the passing game, I believe in it. That's why they're number one. The way that, like,

if you go and you look at like the defensive coordinators who've had a good handle on Lamar, too, like the guys who've been able to stop them, like Lou and Arum was done a great job with the Bengals. they play the Bengals in week 18, right? And in doing so, they have the potential to win the AFC North. And if they do and they come in as the three seed, Cincinnati will be the five seed.

I'm fairly certain on the math, on where the percentages are. But since I'll be the five seed, they get the charges at the sixth seed, right? They can avoid Aniromu in the actual playoffs if they're able to handle them in week 18. The Titans, right? Mike Ravel staff has tended to do it a great job against the Ravens.

Titans might not make the playoffs. Like, it is hard to stop Lamar. There are some guys who have who know how to do it. Belich's done a good job with it, whatever. Belgic actually not that great. But like Rable and Anirumu, they might be able to avoid them. And that's the big thing for them making an AFC playoff run

is what DCs do you get and how comfortable are those guys going up against this player? If they beat Jacksonville, right, on the road in Jacksonville, if Jacksonville is up being the four seat, they would likely, if the Bengals beat the Chargers and the Chiefs beat the Dolphins, that's how it currently sits right now,

they would go to Buffalo, right? They absolutely can give Buffalo a game in Buffalo. I wouldn't be You told me that the Ravens beat the bills 2423 in Buffalo to go to the AFC championship game. Would you be shocked? They had first and goal from the 10, six and a half minutes left. And they weren't able to score. They weren't able to punch in it.

And the bills eat the whole clock. They were an inch away, man. Absolutely, this team can give a Buffalo game. They can beat Buffalo. Yeah. And I think that's why it's putting it in those simpler terms. Would you be more surprised if the Chargers or the Ravens beat the bills in Buffalo? Yeah, I'd be more surprised at the Chargers.

The Chargers still, yeah. Me too. And that's as simple as it gets sometimes. I can't see Buffalo getting boat race. I can't see the Ravens getting boat race. I like Harbaugh-Lamar, they're going to keep them in games. It's going to be close. It's going to be tight.

I can see the Chargers getting deleted. I've seen it enough times that I can see the Chargers like losing that multiscore game. So yeah, Ravens are won. I feel better about this now. Yeah. It was tough for me because, again, I just, I have horror stories and like just memories of watching their passing game at times over this season with the lack of talent. and the way that it's structured and just being like, I can't do this anymore.

But the way the defense is playing and just him being on the field, that's why they're there. And it really is that simple. All right, Ben Solac, that was fun. That was longer than I expected it to be. Thank you for sticking around. No, of course. It's, dude, 16 teams in what's been like the craziest parody, everybody can be everybody a year.

So why not? Fun exercise. I don't feel any better about my list. If I could do it again, I'd probably have it in a completely different order. So really sticking to my guns here. Guys, that's all we have for today. Tomorrow, Mike Sando and Randy Mueller will be back with the football GM, so please go check that out. If you have not listened to our multi-part week 16 recap that I did with Nate Tice, that is available in your feed.

We recap the Christmas Day games and the Christmas Eve games. We also have a separate podcast about the Nathaniel Hackett firing that I did with our Broncos writer, Nick Cosmiter, if you have not heard that. There's been a lot of podcasts that have come out over the last 24, 48 hours or so. So please go check those out. nut. We are not going to have a Thursday night recap this week on YouTube. It is the Cowboys against the aforementioned Malik Willis led Titans. So we're going to take Thursday night off. We're going to replace that with a Monday night recap next Monday. The bills are playing against the Bengals. That is the best Monday night game we could ever hope for. So you are going to get

a YouTube recap, and we're going to save it for Monday night instead. So please go check out Randy and Mike tomorrow in the meantime. Sincerely appreciate you guys. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.