The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Keefer and the Beats: One of the worst losses of the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh? What's gone wrong in Buffalo, and can the Bills save their season? And a look at the first-place Falcons

Episode Date: December 5, 2023

In Week 13 of Keefer and the Beats, Zak Keefer digs into the flawed Pittsburgh Steelers with Mike DeFabo, the disappointing season and the Sean McDermott, Ken Dorsey and Josh Allen conversation in Buffalo with Tim Graham, and the Desmond Ridder conundrum in Atlanta as the Falcons remain in first place with Josh Kendall. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome back to the athletic football show. This is Zach Kiefer, here to dig into week 13 across the NFL. Now we have to start with the San Francisco 49ers who absolutely looked like the league's best team yesterday in Philadelphia, routing the Eagles 4219. For my money, the 49ers now own the two most impressive wins by any team this season, that one and their 42 to 10 pounding of the Cowboys' Badd. in week five. I'd also hear the argument for the Ravens 38 to 6 win over the Lions back in

week 7. Things are suddenly getting interesting in the NFC. Now the Eagles are still on top at 10 and 2, but now San Francisco, Dallas, and Detroit are all just a game back at 9 and 3. That's going to be a really fun four-team race for that top seed in the first round by over the next couple weeks. And by the way, we've got a great one next week. The Eagles are in Dallas for Sunday night football. And the AFC, the Chiefs, no longer own the number one seat after falling in Green Bay last night. Now, questionable officiating aside, everybody saw the blown P.I. call late. The reality is the Packers outplayed them, all game. And the Chiefs still haven't found that top gear this season.

It certainly wouldn't stun me if Patrick Mahomes is playing the first road playoff game of his entire career come January. The Colts, the Texans, both stayed hot with wins yesterday at the buzzer. And the Steelers and Browns, who are both in the playoff picture as well, continue to struggle. The commanders, the Patriots, the Jets, all seemed to hit a new low if that was even possible. And now, according to our Zach Rosenblatt and Diana Rossini, Zach Wilson is, quote, reluctant to step back into the starting lineup for the Jets. What a mess. What an absolute mess for the Jets this season.

Today we're going to dig into three teams. One, the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off what our beat writer Mike DeFabo believes is one of the worst losses of the entire Mike Tomlin era. Now that's saying something. The era spans 17 seasons. As of right now, Pittsburgh owns the five seed in the AFC playoff picture. But is there seven and five record a mirage?

There's a lot to dig into. And Mike brought a ton of great insight on Tomlin on Matt Kennedy's accent as play caller and OC, and where Kenny Pickett is at at this stage in his career. Next up, we'll visit with Tim Grant in Western New York for the pulse of the Buffalo Bills, a very fascinating team who have to be considered among the most disappointing teams in all of football this year.

Why is this team six and six? Why was Ken Dorsey fired? Was he a scapegoat? Was it justified? And why is ownership backing Sean McDermott now and in the future? And why does Tim think that Josh Allen, at times this season, doesn't look like he's enjoying football anymore? This was a really fascinating conversation

on a really fascinating team. It's not out of the playoffs yet, but they have a murder's row of a schedule to finish. It's going to be fascinating to see how that ends. For a team, a lot of people thought might make a run at a Super Bowl. Finally, we'll visit with Josh Kendall in Atlanta and talk about the 6th and 6th Atlanta Falcons. And they're still in first place in that division. God bless the NFC South. Has this team learned enough about Desmond Ritter right now to know if he's the guy?

And what type of quarterback does Arthur Blank, the owner, want right now and in the long term? Great stuff from Josh and Atlanta as always. All right, key from the beats, week 13, let's go. All right, from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to talk about a very interesting Steelers team for a lot of reasons. Mike DeFabo, one of our Steelers beatwriters. Mike, I'm glad we had you on today because there's a lot to talk about. Yesterday, after the game, you tweeted something that caught my eye.

Was this the most embarrassing loss of the Mike Tomlin era? Now, that's a long era, but that says something. What's the feedback you've gotten and do you think it might be? Well, I think it's definitely up there. Here in Pittsburgh, we have a term for this. It's called the Tomlin game or the Tomlin special because it seems like annually there's a game that the Steelers really should win against an inferior opponent and somehow they lose it.

And so some of the most famous instances were probably the first one was 2009. The Steelers were six and seven and Mike Tomlin was still kind of a new coach at the time. and he came out with this phrase and he said, we're going to unleash hell in December and rout up the fan base and told them exactly what they wanted to hear. They went out the following week and lost to a two in 10 Browns team,

ended up missing the playoffs. But that was just the start of it. Another great example was in 2018, they were 7, 2, and 1. This was the height of the Killer Bees era with Antonio Brown and Ben Rothesberger, Levyon Bell. And they ended up losing four of their final six,

including the biggest loss was to a four and 12 Raiders team. So this has happened sometime in Pittsburgh, but there's not really been a loss of this magnitude at home this late in the season. And the question really is, is that this just another instance of Mike Tomlin losing to an inferior opponent?

Or are these Steelers much closer to a two and 10 team than their record might suggest? 24-10 loss to the Cardinals who are in the running for the top pick and haven't won more than twice this entire season. What about yesterday was a surprise and what was not? Because that's the fascinating part for me because this team, everyone's talked about how they've been outgained in so many games, but they are still very much in this playoff race and things seem to be just falling in line for them. Joe Burroughs out for the year, right? Deshaun Watson's out for the year.

And that murderous division suddenly just has. two contenders. And the Steelers just kept winning. And it wasn't pretty, but they just kept winning. And they deserve some credit for that. And then there's a dud like yesterday that makes you think they weren't good all along. Where do you come down on that? Well, I think that there was a little bit of optimism because they finally, it was long overdue

to move on from the offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. Right. I mean, just to briefly explain how bad it got here in Pittsburgh, they were chanting fire Canada at Pittsburgh Penguins hockey games. I saw that. That tells you something. Yes. absolutely. And so, you know, they replaced the coordinator. They rolled with Eddie Faulkner,

who's the running backs coach. He was the de facto coordinator and Mike Sullivan, who's the quarterback's coach, was the play caller. And in the first game with the change in Cincinnati, they put up their first 400 plus yard performance in 58 games. You have to go back to week two of the 2020 season. So, you know, you could look at that and say, Matt Canada was definitely the problem. And now they're going to start improving. There was some good feeling around the offense that things had changed, fresh voices, but they just really weren't able to build upon that momentum. And really the biggest issue for me right now is this season should have been all

about two things. Number one, developing Kenny Pickett, helping him progress. And then number two, if he didn't develop, truly evaluating him. And I don't think that they've succeeded in either one of those objectives. I don't think they're any closer to feeling like Kenny Pickett is either the future of the franchise or that they even know what they have in Kenny Pickett because they've taken such a conservative approach. So, you know, I think that that's probably the biggest disappointment. I think the Steelers still, even despite the product they've put on the field, they're seven and five.

Right now they're the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. They probably still will find their way to get to the playoffs. Mike Tomlin will preserve. You think so, really? I think that they will just because you look at the strength of schedule. And while the Steelers have their issues on offense, it seems like that's every team in the league right now. Like they're going to play the New England Patriots on a short week Thursday night football. You know, that's going to be a rough one.

That's going to be it for the national TV audience. Oh boy. Without either starting quarterback, well, if you want to call Bailey Zapier starter. Well, I feel badly for Al Michaels because he's been very depressed, I think, calling some of these poor Thursday night games. and I think that this is one of the like a historic over under I think it's at 30.5 the line has moved to at this point

which is pretty brutal but you know I I think that that's a winnable game for the Steelers it is anytime you play the Patriots right now it's a winnable game for anybody right then they go on the road they've got they play another backup quarterback in Gardner Minshew and the Colts

they play another backup quarterback at Cincinnati Bengals then there's the game looming at Seattle that one looks tough and then they finish things out on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. And the way that rivalry has gone over the course of its history, it doesn't matter who's the quarterback, what the records are. It seems like any team can win. So you look at this and there's still a lot of winnable games.

The other factor is it's not like Kenny Pickett was letting the world on fire. You lose your starting quarterback on most teams. You think the season is done. But this offense hasn't moved the ball well. They've really relied on T.J. Watt producing splash, plays and the defense turning the opponent over, putting the offense on short fields. So, like, the formula is not going to change just because the quarterback's different. And for that reason, I think the Steelers still can find their way to win a couple games

and work their way into the playoff conversation and maybe even get into the tournament. You said something interesting that's sort of like on a macro level. You said that they're not any closer to understanding what they have in Kenny Pickett. He was the first round quarterback picked two years ago. isn't that an indictment on this organization and sort of how they have things set up? And we all know they've had two coaches and whatever, 30 years or whatever it is. And they believe in the Steeler way and they're not going to change. But like at what point, and I asked Koboli this like a month ago, like at what point do they need to just like realize that this offensive approach is not working?

And I don't know if Kenny Pickett's the guy or not. That can be debated. But like at what point are they going to realize like the game is changing and we're not? and something needs to happen. Yeah, I think that this definitely should open their eyes. The quote that was ringing in my years when they finally fired Matt Canada was at the end of last season. Everyone was calling for Matt Canada to be fired,

and it seemed like it was a foregone conclusion they would move on from him. And he said, we're not worried about keeping up with the Joneses. And I think that it is... Maybe it should be. I think it's long past due for the Steelers to start thinking about how the league is trending and how things are different. And one of the biggest problems, I felt was you had Matt Canada who had never proven he could do this at the NFL level,

leading Kenny Pickett, who had never proven he could do this at the NFL level. And it's really hard to isolate variables and assign blame when you've got a quarterback and offensive quarter, neither one of them have done it. So going into this off season, I think the biggest priority for the Steelers is finding a proven offensive coordinator who's done it before. So that then if Kenny does not have success next year, it's very important. it's very clear what the problem is. It's Kenny, you know, because right now...

It's kind of like what the Bears did with Justin Fields. Like they're like, we're going to give you weapons. We're going to surround you with as best talent as we can and finally find out what you are. Right, absolutely. Because drafting a quarterback, the issue of Steelers had is they drafted a quarterback because they needed a quarterback. But a quarterback is like a marriage in a sense. You know, this is not a couple year commitment. You know, this is presumably a decade long.

Yeah. endeavor. And so by him walking into the circumstances he did, they did not put him in a good situation. Even now, what's better? An offensive coordinator that everybody agreed should have been fired or no offensive coordinator at all. And I just think that that's the kind of the bed the Steelers made for themselves and now they're dealing with the consequences. This quote jumped out at me from yesterday. That was a horrible day at the office. I got to do the Mike Tomlin voice, right? You've got to imagine this being said in the Mike Tomlin voice. We weren't good enough throughout the game.

It was JV football in a lot of ways. It looked like that, right? When you get beat on your home field to a Cardinals team that's in the running for the top pick. Where's the city? Where's the region that lives and dies black and gold with Mike Tomlin? In whatever year this is, clearly there are things that are just not working there. But again, he is good enough to keep them in the playoff race. And maybe they do.

but is it just like a mirage right now? If they make the playoffs, is that just a mirage at where they're at as a team? It's really interesting because there's a really big divide between the national media perspective of Mike Tomlin and the local perspective on Mike Tomlin. What's the local then? Well, so the national though is like they go eight and eight and everyone says, wow, what a great season by Mike Tomlin. I can't believe that he pulled another Tomlin and got, you know,

something squeezed water out of the rock and got them to eight and eight. Right, never had a losing season. Here in Pittsburgh, it's a little different because it's been years since they've won a playoff game. They've had a lot of seasons that they had talented offenses and underperformed. And I think the other part of it is Mike Tomlin has a huge say in personnel decisions and coaching decisions. So, you know, how can you possibly compliment a guy for doing a lot with Little when he's

the one that was making the decisions on who they drafted, making the decisions on which coaches were putting those roles. Not unlike what's happening in New England right now, right? Belichick put that offense together. It's abysmal. Exactly. So I get it if you're a new coach walking into a tough circumstance. You know, Dan Campbell rallies the troops and they make the most of their season.

And it looks like they're on the up and up in their building. But the Steelers have been stagnant. And like in Pittsburgh, they say finish middle, draft, middle, stay middle. And that's kind of what it's been for the Steelers. They're not bad enough to buy. them out and get a top pick and get a game changing type player in the first round. But, you know, they're also not good enough to make it into the playoffs and be a serious contender. And like, even if they make it into the playoffs this year, I have no expectation that they could

win a playoff game. I don't think that this team has it in them. So it would just be like that would be the accomplishment would be just getting into the playoffs. And in Pittsburgh, a fan base that's used to winning Super Bowls, you know, just getting into the playoffs for some fan bases, maybe. a good season, but here in Pittsburgh, that's seen as a disappointment. One of these days, we need to do a separate podcast on just Pittsburgh language,

because you guys have so many phrases that are just like specific just to Pittsburgh. So let's say it doesn't work out. Like, let's say they skid down the stretch with Trubisky and then whatever Pickett returns and they don't make the playoffs, which is a disappointment because they've been in the picture for the last several weeks at least. What changes besides a new offensive coordinator in 2024? Or does anything change at all? And they just have to keep reliving this finish middle, stay middle, draft middle, cycle.

Well, I think that they need dramatic overhauls offensively. You know, there's questions about the coordinator. There's questions about the quarterback. But you're seeing dysfunction on the offense. You know, things, for example, like earlier this season, George Pickens, after the Steelers won a game, did not celebrate the touchdown with his teammates, was frustrated that he had just two receptions for negative one. scrubbed his social media account of anything Steelers related

and posted Free Me on cryptically on Instagram. So we're at that stage of the disgruntledness. You know, we had last week, Deontay Johnson didn't try to recover a fumble and had to apologize. I mean, at least on replay, that was terrible. You know, Najee Harris basically has refused to talk to the media at this point because he's so frustrated with the way things are going. So in the time that he did talk most recently was after the Cleveland loss right before.

they fired Mack Canada and he said, like, you guys don't even see how bad it is behind the scenes. You don't even know the stuff you don't see is even worse than what you're seeing on the sidelines. So I feel like they need a total overhaul there. I think that they need to bring in different types of players, people that are team first type of players, and they need a leader who can guide them and who's going to keep them on the same page. You think they make it? You think they find a way to scrape their way into the playoffs? The road is open, right?

I mean, Cleveland's in there as well right now, and they're losing games, and they're on Joe Flacco, who's been there for 15 minutes. So it feels like there's opportunities, but, you know, Denver lost yesterday, but they're playing better. Indie and Houston just keep winning. They might not be great teams,

but it's bunched up at the bottom of the AFC. You really do think the Steelers are going to find their way in, and maybe everyone's going to say Tomlin did it again. I think they will. I think that they'll find their way in. I think that they'll do it. But, you know, I think the biggest question is, going forward, is Kenny Pickett going to be the guy? And are you going to consider drafting a

quarterback at some point even as high as the first round? I think given the history of this organization and the fact that, as you mentioned, with coaches, they tend to give them a longer leash the most teams. And we're talking about the Steelers, you know, the longest leash probably there isn't professional sports. Exactly. I think that, I think that at a minimum, they're going to give Kenny one more year. And I think that that's going to be really the telltale season, where you bring in an offensive coordinator who's done it before, you know, you kind of eliminate that excuse, and then you see what Kenny can do.

And really, it's going to be a very important year for him. But this was supposed to be an important year. You know, everyone talks about the year two leap with quarterbacks, and there was so much good feeling the preseason. Kenny Pickett led five touchdown drives and five opportunities. They were talking about these feel-good kumbaya like vacations. They took to Florida where they worked on camaraderie. and they worked on all this stuff.

Don't you love the off season? Every team talks a big game in the off season. And it seems like all of that's gone out the window. You know, the on-field product is not there. And then obviously the dysfunction in the locker room as well shows that they're not the cohesive unit that they present themselves as. So, I mean, this team has problems,

but it's just a matter of can this defense stay together? And I guess that's the biggest, the other big factor is when you have a formula based on defense, Defense is based on all 11 guys doing their job. And when you start losing key pieces as the Steelers have done, it's not the same defense. And right now their biggest issue is they had a three-man rotation at the inside linebacker. That's a position that's a communication hub. That's a position that helps stop the run, which has been spotty for the Steelers for years now.

They've lost all three pieces. And they had to call Miles Jack out of retirement. He bought a hockey team and he was studying to become a pilot. and now he could be calling the defense of plays for the Steelers this week on a short week. So, you know, that's, I think, the biggest concern and the reason they wouldn't make it is that the defense is so banged up. Minka Fitzpatrick is playing with a cast on his hand. He broke his hand. Cam Hayward has been dealing with a groin injury.

So, you know, does the wear and tear of AFC North football finally take its toll and cause this defense that's been carrying the team to fall off? Yeah, but you made a good point. Like, yeah, the Steelers have problems. But so many teams out there have problems. There's maybe two or three that really aren't flawed right now, and most of them are in the NFC. So they got the Patriots, very winnable. They got the Colts.

The Colts keep winning, but they're not blowing anybody out. The Bengals, another team with a backup quarterback. Seahawks is tougher, and then at Baltimore to finish is tougher as well. But like you said, you can only play the games in front of you, and they have some winnable games in the next couple weeks. We'll see what happens. But Mike, thanks for hopping on. And we will see what happens down the stretch in Pittsburgh, because it's going to be a fast. finish to this season, and then it's going to be a fascinating off season to see what they do

on offense. Yeah, absolutely. Thank you for having me. It should be definitely a lot of things to keep an eye on. All right, from Orchard Park, New York, the Buffalo area, Tim Graham, who is one of our resident bills experts. Tim, how are you doing? I'm doing well. I'm canned and rested and ready to go, taking the bye week here in beautiful western New York, all the sunshine, as you can imagine. I'm, for those of you who may not understand or be geographically inclined, I am joking because it's been miserable here. But anyways, I still enjoyed my bye week. I hope you enjoyed your by week because it's going to be busy and hectic and chaotic

over the next five to six to however many weeks in Buffalo. Let's go back to September. I saw the bills live once this season, and they looked incredible. They beat the hell out of the dolphins, 48 to 20. I don't think Josh Allen's ever looked better, to be honest. I don't think the bills have probably ever looked better. And now they're 6 and 6, and they are on the 10 spot in the AFC playoff picture. Simple question, complicated answer.

Why? How have they gotten to this point from where they were in early September when they're They looked like Super Bowl contenders. Zach, it's even worse than you outline because the bills have a horrendous AFC record. They hold almost zero tiebreakers. They've been beaten by the Denver Broncos. They've been beaten by the New England Patriots. The Jets.

The Jaguar. The Jets, right? The Eagles, there's no shame in losing to the Eagles in overtime in Philadelphia. It's a game they needed to steal because they have frittered away so many other games that they should have banked. But really no shame in that. They're actually playing pretty well, particularly on offense. However, that conference record is really going to hurt them. And really, unless they need a head-to-head record over the Raiders,

then I don't know that they're going to have many tiebreakers that are going to help them. out when it comes to the playoffs. It's crazy we're having this conversation, but we are, and it's the reality of this league is that it just never goes the way you think it's going to, but the bills are so fascinating because they've got this generational talent quarterback who's producing. The offense is still ranked very, very high. Now, there's a lot of complexities to that. But I want to ask you this.

We haven't talked since Ken Dorsey was let go a couple weeks ago. Did that feel from where you're at in the building every day? talking to the players, talking to the coaches. Did that feel inevitable? Did it feel justified? Was it just a scapegoat situation? Like, those of us on the outside don't really know. What was your take on that?

I asked Sean McDermott a couple of weeks even before Ken Dorsey was let go, maybe even three weeks on a conference call. And it made some headlines at places like pro football talk, and particularly at the aggregators here around Western New York. I asked Sean McDermott how much consideration he has given to letting somebody else on the staff call the plays. And Joe Brady, of course, the former LSU passing game coordinator when they won the national championship a few years ago, went on to the Carolina Panthers, had something like five head coaching interviews at a very young age, and then fell off the map when he became the quarter, when he got fired in Carolina, and then became the quarterbacks coach underneath Ken Dorsey.

That was when Brian Dable left to become the head coach of the Giants. And I was just asking out of intuition. I wasn't thinking that it was time for Ken Dorsey to get fired. I'm thinking maybe it's time for just some fresh perspective. And it's something that Sean McDermott had done in the past. Now, granted, he's a defensive-minded coach. But he once took away the play-calling duty. from defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier for a little bit,

just for a spark, just for a little bit of fresh blood. And so I thought, well, maybe that's something that he'd be willing to do. And of course, that was shot down and mocked and ridiculed. And I had a bunch of people coming,

you know, just analysts saying what a ridiculous idea it would be to take away the play calling from Ken Dorsey. I was merely asking, the question. And Sean McDermott said he'd given zero thought to it. I thought, okay, and I moved on. I didn't even write about it. I was just asking a question. Yeah. But things got even worse. And the malaise continued. And Josh Allen looked like somebody who didn't even want to be playing football. And I, you know, the guy, the killer was gone. You know, the guy, the dual threat running,

throwing, you know, just will snatch your soul away from you. He was just missing. He looked lifeless. The entire offense as a result also looked lifeless. Now, it's only been two games since they fired Ken Dorsey, but the offense has really perked up with 32 points against the Jets, which the listeners may think, well, that's what's the big deal. But Josh Allen had had super duper struggles against

the Jets dating back to last season. And the Jets beat the bills 22 to 16 on opening night. Right. To come back and beat the Jets 32 to 6 and then to score 34 points on the Eagles and then lose an overtime in a couple of controversial ways given the officiating. And, you know, obviously other teams can say they're playing the Trump card over with the bills now after another week of crazy officiating. But yeah, the bill's offensive.

looks like it's back. But it's only two games, small sample size. But as of now, it seems as though that change was needed. And now people are wondering, geez, did they wait too long to get rid of Ken Dorsey? That's what we do as reporters. We ask questions that we don't know the answer to. You had an interesting story last week. And I want to pivot to the discussion about Sean McDermott.

And you're there in the city, in the town, in the building. And you wrote this. She wrote, fan confidence in Sean McDermott has never been lower. There have been darker times than these. Anyone who knows the bills knows they've had decades of futility after those Super Bowl runs in the early 90s. You're talking about recently. A profound misery descended upon the Buffalo Bills the last two winters

when promising seasons imploded without even reaching the AFC title game, let alone the Super Bowl. But the hope of next year always beckoned. They looked like contenders. They looked like they were going to keep making these runs. And then you wrote, hope is fragile now. When it comes to a title run, they might not even be a this year anymore.

Does it feel like this team is descending? And by that, I mean regressing. And, you know, they were the upstart. They were the team that was coming. They've got three AFC East crowns. Does it feel like this is a one-time stepback or a larger issue with the coach that might not ever climb the ladder and get to where they want to go? I mean, you never can really say for sure.

Right. But as somebody who's covered major league sports for 25 years and covered locker rooms for 30 years, I don't get, I don't see doom here. I don't see this as a flawed or dysfunctional organization. They've had some bad luck with injuries. They've had some bad luck with officiating. They apparently, or at least as it seems right now, made the wrong choice in replacing Brian Dable with Ken Dorsey.

And that move was made to appease Josh Allen. That was Josh Allen's guy. He was the quarterback's coach under Brian Dable. And the bills made no, they didn't hide the fact that that offseason in 2022 at the combine, talking to Sean McDermott, talking to Brandon Bean, the bills were bending over backwards to make sure Josh Allen was happy. And the reason, or at least a lot of the motivation for that was what was happening in Green Bay with Aaron Rogers. They did not want to get into a situation where they had a malcontent quarterback. So they pretty much let Josh Allen pick some of the people around him. They even went so far

as to offer Davis Webb the quarterback's job, the quarterback's coaching job, even though Davis Webb was an active player. He was on the practice squad. Yes, he was the third quarterback on the Bill's roster, but he was tight with Josh Allen, and they proposed Ken Dorsey as the coordinator, Davis Webb is the quarterback's coach. Now, Davis Webb turned him down because he still had a career as a quarterback, even albeit as a deep backup, but he went on to the New York Giants to play with Brian Dable. You know, that's another year towards the pension. That's an NFL player's salary compared to an entry-level assistant coach salary. Yeah. So, you know, it was a business decision for Davis Webb, and now he's the quarterback's coach with the Denver Broncos. But those were the types of things

that the bills were desperate to do because they lost Brian Dable. They lost the assistant quarterbacks coach, Shea Tierney. They lost Davis Webb. They lost, there were some others, support staff people. They were losing their backup quarterbacks who they were able to invest in Mitch Trubisky, Case Keenham, veteran quarterbacks who couldn't start. That was before Josh Allen's contract extension kicked in. Now they're down to Kyle Allen as the backup quarterback. Shane Bouchel is the third stringer.

So that was a lot of quarterbacking brainpower that the bills lost when Brian Dable left the staff and took some people. with him. And so, yeah, Ken Dorsey was Josh Allen's guy. And Josh Allen seemed to lose his zest for the game. And I wrote a column about it as I thought that the Ken Dorsey firing was as much on Josh Allen as anybody else. He was playing like he didn't care. And that's an indictment. And I know that that is a very difficult thing for a reporter to say. I'm not saying that he quit. But anybody who will watch this guy play, he was like a zombie out there. What was the response to that like?

Well, I even asked him one day. This was, this was, I'm trying to think of when it was. I think it was before they fired, I think it was heading into the Broncos game. But I even asked him at his Wednesday media availability at a news conference. I said, can I square on here? Yes. I encourage it. Okay.

So, because I said, I even apologize to the cameras because I knew, I didn't know if we were live streaming or sometimes. I said, look, I don't know how else to phrase the question. But Josh, what happened to that guy who used to love to shove it up everybody's ass? And he just kind of looked at me with that dead eyes as he's had all season. And he's like, well, sometimes we evolve. And, you know, we just, those are those, I pick up my spots to be a leader. There was footage of him in the, in the tunnel heading out for the game, given his pregame speech. And it was pretty much like, all right, boys, let's go out there and win one.

You know, one, two, three bills. It was bizarre, and it was something that everybody who's following the team really did notice. And that's changed since Ken Dorsey's been gone. Now, why? Was Ken Dorsey taking the fun out of it? Or was Shaw McDermott, maybe even organizationally, the bills insisting that Josh Allen not run as much. Now, since Joe Brady's been the coordinator, he's been running. Now, that could also be out of desperation because he had.

to now because if you want to make the playoffs, Josh Allen's got to pull out all the stops. And if he gets dinged up a little bit, well, let's hope he rests up over the off season. But against the Eagles, he ran nine times for 81 yards. Against the jets, he had a good running day. And there were other times earlier in the year where you could see him thinking. He'd roll left and have seven yards ahead of him, an easy seven-yard pickup, and he'd stop. And you could see him almost thinking, I have to throw it. because the bills were trying to get that out of his game.

They want this guy to be around for 15 years. But there's this other mentality of what's the use of have in this version of Josh Allen around for 15 years? Or you can have six years of, you know, this world beater and maybe actually make a run at some Lombardi trophies. And I think that it seems to be tilting towards the ladder lately. That is so fascinating because, you know, we get all these canned quotes and so much of it is BS and nonsense and unusable, really. Like you're trying to show the reader something that they don't know and bad quotes and the like don't help you.

But body language tells a story sometimes, and that's fascinating to me that you saw that in Josh, whatever he's going through this season. The disappointment on the field is one thing, but there's no secret that the bills want to drive that reckless. out of his game. That's dangerous, though, because that's what makes him great, right? He's one in a million skill set. But you wonder if they're just removing that extra 3 to 5% that made him that killer that you referenced. You seems like he's having a better time the last couple of weeks.

That usually happens when you fire a coordinator. Usually there's an uptick a little bit at least. But they've got a brutal stretch down the way. I mean, look, this is just brutal. I mean, they're at Kansas City. They face Dallas. Then they go to the Chargers. New England's bad.

But, again, they lost in New England. And in Miami, to finish. And Miami's playing really well. I mean, they're not going to make the playoffs, right? Like, you don't see this miraculously ending with the playoff run, do you? Well, here's the thing. You still feel like anything's possible. Now, I think you asked this question earlier, and I went down a lane, and I didn't circle back and really say,

you mentioned the idea of regression. Now, they have regressed each year for the last three years in terms of how they finished. They went to the AFC championship game. They then failed to make the AFC championship game with the 13 seconds lost. Feels like they never got over that 13 second loss. That's just my theory. So they come that close. So they came really close to getting back to the AFC championship game, but not quite.

then last year everything happens where the team is on fumes heading into the postseason because of everything that had happened and there's demar hamlin nearly dying on the field there were three road games in 12 days because games were you know the snow and the weather that was here people were dying in western new york because of the weather the bills had to play three road games in 12 days won them all um their owner uh was their co-owner kim pagula had a medical issue. And at the time, really, nobody knew what it was still. She wasn't around the team anymore.

There was the mass killing, the racist shooting at the supermarket over the summer. Ten people died. I mean, this was a community that was reeling and the team was feeling it. And by the time they got to the second round and the Bengals, hell, you know, it would have taken miracles. They just didn't have it anymore. And I still voted for Sean McDermott for Coach of the Year for our PFWA award just to be able to keep it together through all that. But they still fell way short.

So they went from AFC championship game to barely missing out on returning to not even coming close to getting to the third round of the playoffs, getting just blown out of the water by the Bengals. And then this year, they might not make the playoffs. So yes, they are regressing. However, over the last couple of weeks, you've seen glimpses of that team where anything's possible. And you're starting to feel it again. You lost it for probably, you know, the last two months of third and eight. Oh, they're not going to convert this.

You know, they just can't, you know, but whereas it used to be third and eight, chalk it up with Josh Allen. Because he's going to run for it. He's going to hit Stefan Diggs. he's going to complete a pass to Dawson Knox. And they've gotten some development out of tight end Dalton Kincaid. He is really good. He's a rookie and rookie tight ends aren't supposed to be contributing,

but he has really started to come around. And the thing that was really frustrating, I think, for the bills prior to the Ken Dorsey firing was they had this new weapon and they were still losing. So now, though, they seem to be figuring it out. Everything, these last couple of games, starting to feel kind of possible. And the bills are only three-point underdogs going into Arrowhead this Sunday. So neutral field, the whole thing, Las Vegas seems that sees this as an even matchup. But you're right, a tough, tough schedule, the last five games.

The Cowboys are the home, the Cowboys and Patriots are the home games. they might have to play the Miami Dolphins two weeks in a row down in Miami Gardens because if they're going to have to win, if they're going to get in, they might have to beat the Dolphins on the road in week 18, and then that could be the game that they get. Now, the Dolphins could actually end up being the best team in the conference and getting that first round by if the chiefs still have their doldrums. Correct.

So you could be looking at back-to-back Dolphins Road games. or winning in Miami and then going to Arrowhead. So it's tough. And I mentioned the tiebreakers earlier. They're stacked against them. They're going to have to get hot. They're going to have to. I don't think they have to run the table.

I think they can afford to lose one. If they lose two, then you're looking at nine and eight. That got you into the playoffs last year with tiebreakers. I don't think it's going to get you in. unless, of course, we see the AFC North totally collapse with Kenny Pickett now out. There are no quarterbacks left other than Lamar Jackson. So I don't know if we're going to get wildcards out of the AFC North anymore, but then here comes the AFC South.

That makes a lot of sense. You know, they might have to get hot, but how hot depends on what you think. I mean, you know, the Steelers and the Browns are in it right now and the Colts, and none of them have their starting quarterbacks, you know. So that's, there is an opening, whether. It's small or large can be up to, you know, you can debate upon that. I'll get you out of here on this. Exactly.

Real question for you. You follow it. You have your finger on the pulse. We can all look at the standings and the schedules. Right. But if you, if that's all it took, then you wouldn't be having me on here. What do you think about three teams making it out of the AFC South? Is that, is that doable?

Yeah. So yesterday was the first time I thought that might actually happen. Because, and I'm not advocating for these teams being really good, but you've got to look at the schedule. I mean, Indianapolis has the easiest schedule the rest of the way. I'm not saying the Colts are good. They've won four straight against pretty bad teams, but they got CINC and Pittsburgh and Atlanta in Las Vegas and Houston.

Those are five winnable games. They don't win them all, but the opportunity is there. And Houston, I mean, same thing. They've got the Jets and the Titans and the Browns and the Colts. I mean, those teams have easier roads to the playoffs, and I think the bills are better than those teams, but I think the bill's road to get there is a hell of a lot harder. And that's just kind of where we're at.

They wasted their opportunities early in the season. Well, you win the division and you face a tougher schedule automatically. But again, the bills are, they're a marquee team. And I feel like they should have won the Philly game. They had that game won. And you just flat out can't lose to the Jets without Aaron Rogers on opening night. Right. The Patriots, of course, in week seven, with a lead inside the last two minutes,

Mack Jones, a guy who's since been. to the Patriots no matter the situation, right? They've lost to two quarterbacks who've been benched, Zach Wilson and Mack Jones. And then the Broncos in Orchard Park with 12 men on the field and we can go through the whole thing there. I mean, that was a disaster. That's what's got to drive Bill's fans crazy.

But last thing, it sounds like they're sticking with Sean McDermen. You reported last week that ownership is behind him, not only behind him, but, you know, they have no interest in moving on from him. The fan base, not on the same page? They're not behind him as much. Well, you know how fickle fans are. Correct. In Western New York, there seem to be way more knee-jerk.

And I don't think, not historically, they're like this. They've gone through so much pain, 17 years of no playoffs. Yeah. And Sean McDermott, like you wrote, was the coach that brought them back. And he deserves credit for that. Yes. And, but there's this feeling that, and it's, I understand it. I understand it.

And I don't think that it's, I think it's a gut feel. It's a visceral feeling that a lot of Bill's fans have that with Tom Brady out of the division and Bill Belichick, you know, falling apart. Right. That the bills are owed a championship. And anything short of that has to be a failure of somebody. and let's get somebody else in here who can do it better. Well, you know, the Eagles hiring Chip Kelly, any team looking at Adam Gase,

I mean, you can go down the line of the guy who was the can't miss whatever coming in, whether it's from the college ranks or the hot assistant from the team that just won the Super Bowl. You know, Terry Pagula has had a bad go of it as an owner of both the Buffalo Sabres of the National Hockey League in the Buffalo Bills. And he has something that's working now. Sean McDermott has a better win percentage in his career than Marve Levy. He is the all-time winningest coach by percentage in this history. He does pretty well in the playoffs.

Now, there's been some choking. But I think that Terry Pagula just doesn't, well, based on my sources, who say there's zero percent. Two of them said zero percent chance. The other two said they would be shocked. and it would take a catastrophe for Terry Pagula to change his mind and want to make a change. They like the symbiotic relationship between Brandon being the general manager and McDermott. They've built a culture.

They just signed them to both of them to contract extensions over the summer through 2027. So there's a lot of the passionate fan who wants change for the sake of change is not going to move Terry Pagula to do. it. Okay. That's interesting. He's not going to just make a move to make a move, not just going to make a move to keep the fans happy. He understands with Buffalo, there's a lot of context to where they're at right now after the last couple seasons. Yeah, I know that this is a predominantly NFL, obviously, you know, it's part of the, it's the show. You know, NFL fans are listening to this podcast, so I don't want to bore you with what the Buffalo Sabers coaching, uh, coaching history had been since Terry Pagula bought the hockey team. Seven different coaches are

something you wrote? It's disaster. And ugly. I mean, ugly hockey. They have not made the playoffs in forever. And here he has in Buffalo something that's working. He wanted to keep Doug Marone. Doug Marone took the buyout because he had a clause in his contract that if there was an ownership change, he could leave with a big sack of cash. He wanted to keep Doug Maron. I think he looks back on that as a misd dodged a bullet. But then he replaced him with Rex Ryan and had to fire him before the end of his second season. Now he has a coach who wins. You need to be able to put yourself in Terry Pagula's shoes.

I know that everybody feels around Western New York that the bills are wasting Josh Allen's prime years here. But Terry Pagula also knows that the grass isn't always greener. And he has something that's working. And I'm just trying to tell you, I'm not saying that's right or wrong. I'm just saying that that is his perspective on this. Good stuff. A fascinating team in a fascinating position, and they're not done yet.

They've got a tough road. But again, their highs are going to be higher than all the other teams that are in that race right now for those wildcard spots. Well, imagine this, Zach. Just one last point to leave. I know that we've been rambling on here. At least I have been. You've been a very polite host. If they do get into the playoffs, that means they're hot.

I mean, they're going to have to be high. That's a really good point. And they're hot. That means Alan is hot. And that could be scary. They could be a scary seventh seed, right? Oh, yeah. I think that everybody's going to want to avoid playing the bills because that means that they will have won, you know, six of their last seven or whatever it is. They're going to have to score points. Yeah, they're going to have to beat the cowboys and the dolphins and the chiefs, probably. But yeah, they're going to be riding one. Crazy things have happened. This season, crazy things have happened in this league. And we'll see what happens. But I think you've convinced me that it's not out of the realm of possibility. Before we started talking, I thought,

no way. I looked at the schedule, and I've watched the bills a lot this year, and I just thought, I just don't believe in what they're doing consistently enough to see them make a run. But then again, that's why the National Football League is great, because the unexpected happens all the time. Still probably not. Right, right. But there's a... Good stuff. Thanks, Tim, for hopping on, man. We'll catch you down the line. Thank you for having me, Zach. All right, from Atlanta, Georgia, Josh Kendall, our Falcons writer, The Hawkins might be the most six-and-sixth team in NFL history, as far as I'm concerned, Josh. The good news is they're in the eminently winnable NFC South.

The bad news is I feel like they've underachieved this season. Would you agree or disagree with that statement and why? Yeah, no, I definitely think that they have underachieved this season. And yet they are, you know, first place with a bullet in the NFC South. They lead the Saints by a game and they're three in O in the division. So they're kind of, they're really in the catbird seat, you know, as much as this, you know, has a catbird seat. But, you know, you can roll back the tape really easily and say, you know, look at what

Josh Dobbs and Minnesota did to this group. Will lend us through four touchdowns in his NFL debut. He's thrown three in the month since then. I mean, off the top of my head, those are two wins. This team should be eight and four, and you're kind of having a different conversation about them. But ultimately, this is who they are. They're a 500 football team.

This is a team that I think has got a good hold on. the four seed in the NFC, and let's imagine for a second the Falcons versus the Cowboys in that four or five game. What's the line? Ten, ten and a half? Even if it's in Atlanta, which it will be. It will be in Atlanta, and it's not going to be super competitive as we sit here

right now. But this team needs to make the playoffs. This team is in what team owner, Arthur Blank, preseason called year three of a three-year plan with this GM and head coach group. They need to make the playoffs. That's an important step for them. So they've got to hold on to this and worry about ironing out the kinks in 2020, taking a step forward, an actual step forward in 2024 probably. So where are they at? There's been a lot of conversation about the quarterback. They made some moves. They brought them back. Again, six and six in a bad division, but the six and

six, and you're looking at a playoff game. They've surrounded Desmond Ritter with some talent, right? I mean, they spent a top seven pick on a running back. And I mean, they've done a lot to help him. Have they gotten closer to figuring out if he's the answer? They've spent their last three top ten picks on offensive guys, a tight end, a wide receiver, and a running back. That's what I'm saying. So not just some offensive talent, in their mind,

they have given him the cream of the crop. So, yes, he and an offensive line that they have invested a lot of draft capital in, that's good to really good depending on the day or fine and pass blocking to really good and run blocking depending on the day. So yes, Desmond Ritter has got what he needs to show if he's the guy. The problem is sometimes it looks fine

and sometimes it looks terrible. So the Falcons are in this weird zone where Arthur Smith can look at Desmond Ritter and can see glimpses in every game of that player can do exactly what I need him to do. if I can just coach out the rest of this. So then you're an NFL head coach and your choices are thinking, A, I'm a good enough coach that I can get this guy where he wants to go.

Or B, I have to start over looking for a quarterback next year when I probably got the 19th pick. If I make the playoffs, I've got the 19th pick in the draft. I don't want to trade a bunch of guys because I think that everybody I've ever brought into this program is the next coming, you know, is going to be a superstar. So I think that they are holding on tighter to Desmond Ritter than you would think from the outside. Okay. I heard this name floated the other day, and this is all hypothetical.

This is all speculation. Is Justin Fields a possibility in a year? Because it seems like the Bears, if they get the top pick, virtue of the Panthers, they're going to go Caleb Williams. Let's just play that game. If they play that game, it makes sense that the Falcons bring in a veteran quarterback if they aren't all in on Desmond. Ritter after this season. It feels like it's a conducive spot for, let's just throw a name out, Kirk Cousins or Justin Fields, because like you said, they got pits, they got Bejohn, they've got an offensive line, they got weapons, and they just need to take that next step. Or is that just me

playing the media game that I shouldn't play? That's a very reasonable step to take and question to wonder. And I think that, you know, Arthur Smith, because of his own actions, typecast in a certain way outside of Atlanta. And I'm not sure it's super. accurate. So what's the narrative outside of Atlanta? First of all, this guy is a jerk. He's sincerely not. He does a good imitation at times from the podium. He's not, he's not an ass. So, but secondly, this guy just wants a super athletic quarterback. This guy wants Justin Fields. This guy wants Trey Lance. I can tell you for a fact, when Trey Lance was on the market, and he was on the market for a long time, the Falcons had zero interest in him. Maybe it's different with Justin Fields,

but I don't think so. If you say to the Falcons, you can have Kurt Cousins or you can have Justin Fields, I think all things being equal, which we know they're not. They're taking Kurt cousins ten times out of ten. He's a better quarterback. By far, and Arthur Smith wants a quarterback.

And part of the reason he likes Desmond Ritter is because he's seen glimpses of him playing quarterback, playing traditional quarterback. Now Desmond brings enough mobility. And that's what Arthur wants. It's just enough mobility. We saw Ryan Tanny Hill in the red zone in those two really successful years. You know, just enough that you've got to count him in the run game, that he can keep his own read every now and then.

He's not looking for a running back to play quarterback. He's looking for a quarterback. You've got to think who they had for 15 years. Literally a statue back there in the pocket in Matt Ryan. And then they did make a run at Deshawn Watson, obviously. We don't need to get into all that. But I'm looking at their schedule down the stretch. And I'm looking for a great quarterback.

They're going to see the rest of the way. and I just don't see one, right? They go, part of this is NFC South, but Tampa, Carolina, Colts, Chicago, Saints. Like, they might have a misleading record by the end of this, simply because of the schedule. The best quarterback they're going to see the rest of the way is probably Baker Mayfield,

but again, if that's the best quarterback you're going to see, that's an enticing schedule. We'll see what happens the rest of the way, but are they getting any closer to figuring out, you know, they had such a unique build, right? Let's build around the quarterback. We're going to have this rookie deal and see what we can do. I feel like at the end of the season, we might not be any closer.

But am I wrong? No, I think that's very valid. I think if you see the same, I think you could see the same, Desmond Reuter we've seen through the first 12 games. And this team finish, let's say, you know, pie in the sky, what, four and two, got six left? That's fair. I think they should finish four and two. Against this schedule. Right.

And this defense, you know, this defense leads the league by far in defensive EPS per snap. It's top two or three in success rate. And part of that is, again, NFC South correlated. But this is a pretty good defense. So this team with Desmond Ritter being a roller coaster could be 10 and, what is it, 10 and 8, no, 10 and 7, 9 and 8. Yeah, be 11 and 6, yeah. And could clinch the playoffs in week 16 or 17, which is unheard of in Atlanta. God bless the end.

NFC South. Exactly. And you still think what in the world do we have in Desmond Roeder. But, you know, again, your options are thinking, I'm a good enough coach to get this guy where I want him to go, or I've got to go into the great unknown. And another thing that Arthur Smith, I think, is one of his core tenants, is that, to frame it one way, all quarterbacks suck. Like, he just doesn't believe that, you know, he just doesn't believe that, Caleb Williams is going to step in the door or Drake May is going to step in the door and he's going to be the guy. He is skeptical of quarterbacks, of the next guy, of this guy is going to solve all your problems. Fans believe the next guy is going to be C.J. Strad right away. And it's just not how it works. Fans are exactly the opposite. So the Falcons, I just think,

I'm not saying Desmond Ritter will be the Falcons quarterback in 2024. I'm going to say they hold him in higher regard than anybody outside of the organization. organization fans and even other, you know, media, et cetera, et cetera, do. So I think it's going to be, it's going to be harder to replace him in their eyes than you think it's going to be. That's where we are. That's fascinating because it's really hard to do both, right? To live in that abyss where you don't know if you have the guy at quarterback,

but also compete, right? A lot of teams fail to do both. And a lot of teams fall apart because they're trying to do both, one being the team I used to cover that brought in Matt Ryan, who was their fifth quarterback in five years, and everything fell apart because they thought they were better than they were, and they thought they were one piece away. The Falcons, if they want to move off from him, it's a lot easier because he's on that rookie deal. But we'll see. And, you know, based on the way the last couple weeks have gone, it feels like this is the team that's going to win the NFC South. Last thing before I

let you go, if they don't win the NFC South, why? Like against this schedule, what would have to go really wrong for them to not fulfill that pretty low bar and win that division. We'd have to see the Desmond Ritter turnover machine that we've seen at times pop up a couple more times. And this defense, for as well as it's done in success rate, defensive, you know, let's go back to given Will Levis and his first NFL starts, given the guy who can only throw deep, four deep touchdowns, you know. So let's throw that defense in a couple times. let's throw some three-pick games from Desmond in a couple times, and you're absolutely missing the playoffs,

and then you've got question marks about more than Desmond Ritter. That would answer a lot of questions, to be honest. They wouldn't enjoy that process, but if they don't make the playoffs against this schedule with everything the way it's set up, I think that would be a colossal disappointment because this is the most winnable division again in the NFL. But it's going to be fascinating to see,

and like you said, we could probably expect an Atlanta home game in the playoffs against a much better, team. We'll see, but thanks for hopping on, Josh. Thanks for having me. All right. I want to thank Mike DeFabo in Pittsburgh, Tim Graham and Buffalo, and Josh Kendall in Atlanta for taking time on busy Mondays to give us tons of insight on the Falcons, the Steelers, and the bills, and where they find themselves with about a month to go in the regular season. We will have a great rest of the week on the athletic football show podcast feed, Week 14 preview, Football GM podcast with Randy and Mike Sando, in the pocket with Chase Daniel and obviously prospect.

to pros with Dame Bruegler. Tons of great stuff coming. A lot of great games on tap for week 14 and we will catch up with you guys next week. This was the athletic football show.