The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Khalil Mack trade reaction, free agency lessons & how teams approach the salary cap with Bill Barnwell & Joel Corry

Episode Date: March 11, 2022

Bill Barnwell returns with Robert Mays as the two of them dive into some breaking reaction to the Khalil Mack trade from the Bears to the Chargers before discussing their Free Agency Lessons of the past few years, what they've learned and what other teams can watch out for when it comes to making mistakes during free agency + Joel Corry of CBS Sports stops by to break down the 2022 salary cap and the creative ways teams find to always stay under the cap. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today is Friday, March 11th. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. Joel Corey from CBS, who does a fantastic job, writing about the salary cap, the finances, the mechanics of the NFL

is going to be joining us a little bit later. We're going to do a primer on the way that certain teams use the cap, the way that they approach it, manipulate it, really enjoyed our conversation. with Joel. Before we do that, though, I am thrilled to welcome my good friend, ESPN's Bill Barnwell. Barnwell, how you doing? Mayas, you gave me a trade scoop as we began to record here today. So this is amazing. So this week, you and I have been on the phone or on a Zoom twice. The first time you said we had to change whatever conversation we were going to have, the one we're

going to have today about the lessons we can learn from recent free agency. I was like, why would we have to do that? And you said, because Russell Wilson just got traded to the Broncos. No, no, no. I was like, oh, did you see the news? And you're like, yeah, Aaron Roger signed. Who cares? Like, it's not a big deal. And I was like, no, the other news makes. Which was an amazing moment. It was great to hear from you. This one isn't quite as big. But when you signed on to do this show, I said something happened. And I got to break the news to you that Khalil Mack has been traded to the Chargers. How do you feel about Kilal Mac getting traded from the team you loved, the team you wish you could maybe stop loving, I suppose. the Los Angeles Chargers. I think it makes sense for both sides. The Bears are, in my opinion, in full rebuild mode.

They're going to get a top 50 pick. They got a second round pick this year to move on from Clu Mack, who's 31 years old, who's going to cost $30 million against the cap this year. I don't know what the tinkering is going to be with his deal, if there's going to be any sort of relief that they're going to get from the Chargers or if it's just going to be a straight trade with no details kind of in there. But they save $6 million against the cap. get a pickback for him.

In my opinion, the Bears are starting over. This is a team that doesn't have a lot of good players on it, doesn't have enough assets, and I think this is definitely a move with that second part in mind. So we're going to talk about free agency today, but taking a step back and considering the Khalil Mack trade, which I mean feels like it was only a couple years ago and somehow it feels forever ago at the same time, who won? anybody win? I think nobody won. You know, with the Bears, I think giving up two first round picks and signing an extension for any non-quarterback, the list of guys for whom that's worth it is so,

so small. When is that really worked out? I think you could argue that with Jalen Ramsey it has worked out. It has gone well for the Rams and Jalen Ramsey. And I just feel like corner is such a unique position when it comes to that. You know, we can talk about coverage versus pass rush all day, but the ways that a cornerback specifically can flip the math for you on the back of your defense and how old Jalen Ramsey was when he got that when they made that trade, I just think the needle to thread for that sort of package is so incredibly small that it's really, really hard to recoup value if you're going to give up that much for one player. Was the best part of the Khalil Mack era literally the first half of his first game in a bear's uniform?

Yes. It was a pretty good half to be fair. It was. Cleo Mac was incredible in 2018. Like, incredible. The Bears are the number one defense in football by far. A defense that almost carried that team to a playoff win. I mean, they won 12 games that year.

A defense so good that it warped our understanding of the Matt Nagy era entirely. Some of us, some of us have the Matt Error Nagy, Matt Nagy era warped. I'm not going to say who didn't, who did not. But, I mean, yeah. And I think Colomack is. still a really good football player. He might not be... I think the health is a concern here.

That's the one thing I'd be worried about if I were the Chargers. And I think the other thing is that he's been... He's been playing through injuries quite a bit. Like, he didn't risk a game in 2019 and 2020, but he was playing through stuff quite a bit. And I'm a little surprised. You know, I'm not surprised that Cleo Mac got traded, and I can see why the Chargers would have made this move.

But they wore a team where I could see them going after J.C. Jackson. I kind of thought they might make a bigger splash in the secondary than they would have up front. I guess it doesn't preclude them from doing it. It doesn't. But I also sort of feel like I'm less likely to think that's going to happen now that they made this trade. I still think they're going to make some moves in the secondary. And I also think they're going to make some moves up front. They're going to spend.

They're going to be adding players to that defense. They are not done. But this is the benefit of having a cyborg that's making $7 million. Like, that's what this is, is you can be aggressive in these moments. Giving up a second and a sixth round pick for a Killeo Mack, even at his age, even with his kind of spotty injury history over the last couple years, you're paying him $22 million this year against the cap. That's more than palatable when you're a team in the Chargers position right now. And they can go year to year. Like, they have the flexibility now at this Klamak deal where if it sucks and he gets hurt, like you can get out of it pretty easily.

So I think that gives you an advantage where you're not trading for a guy like Clomack and then giving him a massive deal with huge signing bonuses and option bonuses that make it extremely difficult to move on if he doesn't work out. So I'm in, it wasn't the move I was thinking for the Chargers, but I'm fine with it. And I certainly think we know what the upside is. Like the idea of having Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack rushing quarterbacks is absolutely terrified. I also think that you have a point of connection with the coaching staff with the Chargers and Khalil Mack, right? Jay Rogers, their defensive line coach. Actually, I don't know his title exactly with the Chargers, but he was the defensive line coach in Chicago. And once he's the run game coordinator or something with the Chargers. And then obviously, Brandon Staley. I mean, Brandon Staley was in that room coaching Khalil Mack. They know how they're going to want to deploy him. And now having both of those guys, Kalil Mack and Joey Bosa together, if Matt can stay healthy. Oh, boy. And now you add some cheat. Because I think in the interior, you can find guys that aren't necessarily break the bank type players. You know, can we go out.

and get two to three guys in the three to five million dollar range that fill a really specific role like Sebastian Joseph Daylight sort of players. I mean, those are the guys they need on the interior. So I think there's ways for them to piece together the other holes they have on defense while also adding a superstar at what is a really reasonable price tag in my opinion. I mean, it was more than that much, but the guy who played such a huge role for the Rams in the Super Bowl was a Sean Robinson where we're going to get to him by the way he's a name I have written down that was not a splashy signing but I mean that dude was a monster in that game and let the Rams do a lot of what they wanted to do up front um let me ask you more bears question and then

we'll get started does anyone else get traded from this oh my god nick foals is still on this roster oh yeah he is I was like wow spot track forgot to take nick falls off the roster He's still on the roster. And the funniest part about it is that I think he's still on the roster because if they trade him, they save $8 million. And if they cut him, they only save $3 million. So my assumption is that they're waiting to see how the quarterback dominoes end up falling and see if someone is willing to give up a seventh round pick for $4 million of Nick Foles. Can we please trade Nick Foles to Washington? Just one time for your old friend, Bill.

I just want to see one more Nick Fills, Carson Wentz, battle in a different NFCE city. I don't know if anybody else is necessarily a candidate to be traded. Eddie Jackson, they would save money if they traded him because, I mean, his contract right now, if they cut him, it's awful. I mean, he's $18 million in dead money. Yeah. So that's the other one that if they get something for him, maybe they're into that. But other than that, I don't think there are that many guys that'd be worth dealing. I mean, if they wanted to move on from certain players, they could.

Yes, I mean, they could trade Robert Quinn. I don't know if they would get a ton for him, even though he was great last year. I mean, we'll see. I mean, I'd be open to anything. I mean, I think that you need some semblance of competency with your team. If you're going to try to start this regime off on the right foot. But I'm down with whatever they think they need to do to recoup players and resources and try to rebuild this roster. because we've talked about in this show plenty of times.

It came up today. Kevin Fishpain wrote for The Athletic about if you're looking at the roster, how many building blocks do the Bears really have? And that list is really, really short. We could do an entire separate podcast on the conversation you had for you. You apparently independently have this conversation about Bears building blocks with other NFL people at the Combine. I was at dinner with Nate, Deonté Lee, and Seth Galena.

And I can't remember how it came up. But we were talking about the bears and just the fact that the idea, even over the last couple years, that all they needed was a quarterback and then they were going to be fine. It was just such a misnomer the entire time. This is a talent deficient roster. They are not good. They are not good and they don't have picks. It's a really, really bad situation to be in.

And I think this sort of move is with that in mind. You're just trying to dig yourself out of this hole and figure out how you're going to start whatever this soft rebuild process. looks like. You know what's the best part about all this is that you just mentioned the misnomer of oh, they have a good roster as long as they just get a quarterback and now that quarterback, the one who was holding this team back, is

suddenly a hot free agent all over again. What a wonderful time to be alive in the NFL. I'll let one last thing to put a bow on this before we move on. This isn't going to do anything to dampen my enthusiasm about the 20-22 chargers. I'll tell you that right now. Yes, no. I mean, that

that was always going to be in the cards anyway. But I think, honestly, you could talk yourself into anybody joining the Chargers and being like, all right. You know, like we got, this is a good one for us, you know. I mean, outside of me. I do not say we and us. Don't start that. I will say it, yeah, it's when I was getting excited about it yesterday and thinking about

how they would use their cap space, this is not what I had in mind. So they're going to be a fun team. I think that this makes sense again for both teams. All right. So what we're going to do today, I wanted to take a look back as we get ready for this year's version of free agency. We wanted to explore some success stories, some pitfalls in recent free agency, some lessons we can learn from the last several years from what teams have done. So before we dig into that, I wanted to ask you just on a general level. Sure. Which teams, in your opinion, have used free agency the best over the last, let's say, three to five years? Boy, well, I mean, this is going to be a race for us to name the one team that stands out, right? I think there's a couple that have done okay. I would start with the Buffalo Bills.

Yes, I would agree with that. I think that's where you go. And I think when I was putting together some of these lessons that I looked at over the last few years, like there are admittedly situations where the bill's added players that would otherwise typically have been bused, where I think other players of that archetype have failed, and the bills have gotten a lot out of those players. And I think there is always that question of how much a free agency is adding the right player versus how much of it is just getting a player and putting him in the right situation to succeed.

And there's obviously some element of both to it. But I think for the bills, I mean, whether you want attribute it to great scouting, whether you want attribute to great coaching, great culture, just the fact that they've managed to sign every single ex-panther who has ever played in the NFL and Sean McDermott already knew all these guys. Like the bills have managed to build an entire roster out of a couple drafts and free agency. And that is so hard to do. I mean, we talked about it for years on our old podcast about like the Jaguars trying to do this

and year after year failing and coming up with players who were disappointments. And the bells, I think, pretty consistent. I mean, so many players on this roster have played, not just as well as the other places, but significantly better in Buffalo than they did elsewhere. Of course, the safeties. Micahide and Jordan Poyer start. But then it's, you know, guys up front, it is guys like Cole Beasley. You know, I just think they've done such a great job of building that roster.

And they hit, I would say, dramatically more than free agents, just about anybody else. I think they could maybe a couple teams we'll talk about that are close, but the bills are just on a different level to me than everybody else when it comes to how much value they've gotten out of free agency. I agree. And I think that we'll look at them and learn some lessons. And really some numbers stuck out to me about why that's the case and maybe why they have some more success stories and why even some of the failures aren't as prominent in our minds.

And there are some things that absolutely think that we can point to. A team, this is just recency bias, but the Bengals got a lot out of free agency last year. And look at the way they built their defense. And I think that there are some lessons there. I feel like the Patriots, it's a different type of free agency, 2021 excluded. But what they've been able to do with players on the market, they've gotten a lot out of some pretty marginal investments over the last five years.

And I think there's something to be learned from there as well. There are a couple other teams that I think we could probably throw out there. But those are the three teams that I had listed right here. All right. Let's get to our lessons. What was the first one that came to mind for you as you look at the last several years? of free agency. Oh boy.

This one's probably been good for about 20 years now. Do you know where I'm going? No, I don't. I'm excited about it, though. Okay, this is my lesson to you. Robert Mays, if you're going to be the jam of a football team, please do not sign former Patriots

unless you either like losing your money or it's Tom Brady. Let me give you a list of free agents who have left New England over the last few years, Mays. It's 2017. It's Logan Ryan, who I thought was fine for Tennessee. pretty good end of his deal

Markella Spennett Jabal Shear 2018 Nate Solder who oh boy the Giants maybe the worst move of the entire Dave Gedelman era Malcolm Butler

Dionne Lewis Danny Amandola Johnson Batamosi 2019 Trey Flowers who was cut today by the Lions Trent Brown

Cordor L Patterson Dwayne Allen who never even played for the dolphins 2020 How then no Wayne Allen sign with the dolphins He did

sign with the dolphins Brian Flores his first year there and then I think was cut at the end of camp. I don't even remember that. Injury settlement. Kyle Van Noy,

who only lasted the year in Miami, Danny Shelton and Stephen Gaskowski, who was a mess for Tennessee. And last year, I will say, Joe Tune was pretty good for the Chiefs. So I don't think you can maybe have that one be the issue,

but Adam Butler, the one other signing. So if Bill Belichick thinks that this guy is not worth signing, chances are he's not worth signing. And I think it's going to be very tough because there is a really good, really prominent Patriots player

at the top of free agency this year. So that takes me to mine. And I have a couple others that are related to that Patriots point that you made that I want to get to a little bit later on. But mine is a direct connection with that and the player that you're talking about. I would beware the expensive cornerback. If you look at the last several years, okay, even last year, William Jackson, three for 40 and a half, Shaq Griffin, three for 40, Adori Jackson, three for 39. go back a year before that.

Trey Wayne's 3 for 42. Josh Norman, also another recent example of this. Tremaine Johnson, maybe the worst example of all of these over the last three to five years. Byron Jones has been disappointing. Yeah, I'd say Byron Jones hasn't been quite as disappointing as some of these other guys. He had better flashes in Miami, but I think you could probably lump him in here as well. That's a position where there's a reason these guys hit the market. And when you have that sort of proximity, your old staff and the teams that are letting these guys go, it would be buyer beware for me. If you're into that $13, $15 million a year range, even creeping up over 10. You know, Ronald Darby getting three for 30 from the Broncos last year. He's more connected to another thing I want to talk about later. But if you're getting into that $13, $15 million a year range, I think that's a really, really dicey place to be shopping. And JC Jackson's going to even be more expensive than that this.

year. Jesse Jackson will probably be 20 million. I would have been close to 20 million per year. Now, I mean, there is one very prominent exception here. Stefan Gilmore, who's pretty dang good for the Patriots. So, I mean, is there anything you can hang your hat on? I mean, in terms of guys, because I would say not only has to fund Gilmore been good, but I think James Bradbury has been pretty good for the Giants as well.

James Bradbury is another one, but I mean, they're looking to trade him already. So it just, even with that, there was a short little window where it was successful. The Gilmore thing, I think the lesson to be learned from the Gilmore thing, and this is one that we can apply to a lot of different players, you have to ask why they're hitting free agency. And with Gilmore, it was a new regime in Buffalo. I mean, Robert Woods was a free agent that same year. There were a lot of guys from that team that ended up being pretty productive on free agent deals elsewhere because a new regime came in. Those weren't their guys. They let them walk out the door.

And I think that would be the lesson to be learned from the Stefan Gilmore move, in my opinion. I think that's fair. And I do think that there were extenuating circumstances there for sure. I was a little surprised at the time, remember correctly, that they did not franchise him. I kind of felt like that would have made sense, and it did not actually happen. And I guess Will Belichick, probably better at this than most other people. But, yeah, I mean, I think overall, you're looking at a very narrow window to hit. And I, J.C. Jackson's really good, though. I'd still be worried about it.

I'm more open to the Carlton Davis path than the J.C. Jackson path, just because I can explain why Carlton Davis isn't getting retained by the bucks. Yeah, that's true. I mean, the Patriots don't typically franchise people. Even when they had like Devin McCordy, they let Devin McCordy hit the market and then resign to him. But the Patriots had all that money last year. If they wanted J.C. Jackson be a part of their long-term plan, it's not like there were avenues precluding them from doing that. They chose to spend on other players outside and build their roster in a certain way that didn't include J.C. Jackson. With the Bucks, there are just so many guys they had to pay, and there's only one franchise tag.

I think that's how Carlton Davis is hitting the market. That's more specific to me and a little bit more illuminating to me than the J.C. Jackson market. But couldn't you argue that they should have just paid Carlton Davis if he was that high of a priority for their roster before he even got to, free agency? Possibly. I just think it all stacked up. You know, like Shaq Barrett was a one year four million dollar signing the year and now they have to pay him $20 million a year. I just think there are certain aspects of it where it was hard to understand exactly what their roster would look like when they were making some of those decisions. Can I ask you another question unrelated to this topic? Of course. Who has the best roster in the NFC? South? It's the saints, I think, but it's not easy to answer that question. It's an amazing question. I'd have to think about it.

Like, like, I think... Are we assuming the Saints retain James Winston in this hypothetical? No, he's a free agent. We don't know. I'm saying right now, as we're about to hit free agency, who has the best roster in the NFC? South. It's still the Bucks.

Yeah? Yeah, it's still the Bucks. Have you? You have two reliable tackles. You have Evans and Godwin still. I guess you're Frances in Godwin. Yeah. Yeah.

So on the back, on the defense, I don't know what the secondary is starting to worry. me now. Jordan White has a free agent. Carlton Davis is a free agent. But yeah, you have try and shayanka on one end. You have Shaq Barrett still. You have Vita Vaya. You have the linebackers.

You still have Antoine Winfield. I would still say it's the bucks. Vita Vaya is the only dude left. Up front. That's it. There's no one else. There are three interior line runner free agents. Gronks are free agent.

Blaine Gabbard's a free agent. Their top three running backs are free agents. Three of their four starting defensive line run are free agents. It's like, you throwing Blaine Gabbard in that list made me choke. I mean, I know how much you love Blaine Gabbard. That's why I wanted to throw him in there for you. Oh, God. It's actually, it's a really good conversation.

Like, if you go to the, I would encourage all of you to go to the R-Lads page for the Bucks, which is just like bright red every single spot. There's just like panic when it's being in. Yeah, just like money is just flying to every part of that roster. But they want a Super Bowl, so who cares? Like, you take that 10 times out of 10. I think that's what you take away from that. Is it both of those teams pushed all their chips into the middle, understandably so?

All right. What's your next one? So I'm going to go with a slightly different version of that. And I'm going to go to quarterbacks because I'm going to make the case based on the last five years, which is not a big sample. But if a quarterback who is not a Hall of Famer is on the market, it is probably not a great idea to pay them meaningful money. It probably is an age thing too with the Hall of Fame quarterback, right?

Like, he has to be over a certain age, and that's the reason he's hitting the market. Right. Like, it's Brady, Rivers. I love that you're saying the Rivers is a Hall of Fame quarterback. Thank you very much. You're not going to get any argument from me there. Like, of all people, me, you think I'm criticizing Philip Rivers? Come on.

No, I mean, like, those guys were there because they were in their late 30s or early 40s. Their teams were moving on. They had some injury issues. Like, that's not. they're different from me than this group. Here is a full list, a full accounting of the multi-year deals handed out to free agent quarterbacks over the last five years. This is three years or more.

Brock Osweiler with the Texans, Mike Lennon with the Bears, Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. It's been a rough day for me. Kirk, oh, you haven't even got to the end of this list yet, Mayes. Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, Nick Foles with the Jaguars, and Teddy Bridgewater with the Carolina Panthers. I mean, that's four deals that those teams were actively trying to get out of before the end of their first season with the team.

And Kirk Cousins, which, I mean, I don't know if the Vikings would go that route again if they could. Like, I think it's been some positive. I like Kirk Cressons more than most people, but certainly not like a slam dunk. It's just been absolutely brutal. I think that's a really naughty situation. Like, there's so many layers. to unpack with that. Right, but like you get the idea.

I mean, yes. Like, if you are desperate for a quarterback, as much as it might seem like getting a guy in free agency might make sense, like, unless it is a player like a Brady or a Manning where it is just how long can he hold on for before the bottom falls out. Like,

it is such a bad place to go out and find that guy. Yeah, it goes back to that question of why is this person hitting them? Right. Like, no team is going to let their quarterback leave if they think he's, a viable starter. I guess Teddy maybe because he was leaving the Saints, but even then, like, it's just such a bad spot. Yeah, but even if that,

he would have gone more when he signed with the Jets. Right. And he was, no one wanted him then either. So that brings me to my next one. Okay. And this is a Bill Barnwell special. This is something that I have, no, it's, you have taught me this over the years. And I think about things differently because of the conversations that we have. Uh-oh.

You have to evaluate it. these things over a two-year period. You have to evaluate the market for these players over a two-year stretch. Sure. And there are a lot... The Teddy Bridgewater thing is a perfect example, right? The Jets got him for very little.

Anybody could have had Teddy Bridgewater. And when you're thinking about what to give him if you're the Panthers, you should keep that in mind. And there are plenty of other recent examples of this. Last year, I have two on different ends of the spectrum. Okay. Nelson Aguilar. Available for one year, $1 million to the Raiders 2-0.

off-season to go. Yep. Then signs an $11 million a year contract with the Patriots. Some alarm bells would be going off in my head there if I were the team seeking out that contract. Hold on. Can I talk about Nelson Ilar for a second briefly? Of course you can.

There's like a thing that happens on the internet where you will see fans of a certain fan base, like blindly defending a player they just acquired, when you've already had to deal with that player on other fan bases and seeing how frustrating. story that they've been with him. Nelson Angler is the perfect example of that. I'm like, you guys should talk to Eagles fans and see what you think about Nelson Aguilar because I promise you, like, yes, he had a couple of deep catches last year. This is not a good idea, guys. He's a perfect example.

And I think somebody on the other end of the spectrum is Judevian Clowny, right? Judevian Clowney gets $13 million from Tennessee two years ago. He gets hurt. He comes into the next offseason that Browns get him for $8 million. Why was Jdevi and Clowny a different player in the 2021 spring than he was in 2020? Fair. Unless there is something physical about why he's struggle, which he didn't, Javine Kleiner always hurts.

You could talk yourself into that, but I still think that goal for $5 million, that's where you find bargains. That's where you find values. And that's what he was for the Browns this year. Right. And the risk is different, right? You know, if you're going to take a shot on a guy who was good a year ago, you're typically paying less than what his ceiling might be.

If you're paying $11 million for Nelson Aguilor coming off of a great season, you're paying for that level of production. You're walking in that one year where he was great, as opposed to having to deal with the downside of maybe that one year where he was playing at not as high of a level. So I think it's asymmetrical. A couple other recent examples. Ronald Darby goes to Washington in 2020 for $3 million.

Really nice value. Next year, three for 30 going to the Broncos. Robert Quinn is available for next to nothing to get traded to the Cowboys a few years ago. Has a really nice year for Dallas and then the Bears break the bank for him. He had a really nice season this year. Two years ago, it did not go very well. Dante Fowler available for very little to the Rams midseason via trade and then signs a $15 million a year deal to go with the Falcons. There are so many examples of this.

And on the flip side, the Patriots do the opposite of this. They look at the overall trajectory of a player. They let somebody else pay them. And then they get them back for nothing. Van Noe, Jamie Collins, you just wait until Trey Flower signs with the Patriots for one year and five million bucks here in a week. Do you want to know how I know Tennessee has improved and how they become a much better organization? when I made this exact joke a couple years ago about how the Patriots would sign someone or Patriots would have someone, he would do really well, he would leave, he would be a terrible

free agent bus somewhere else, he'd come back for on a one-year deal and be really great. And you made this same exact joke today, but with the Texans instead of the Titans. So I think that the Tennessee has evolved out of that role for the Patriots. The reason that I said it was the Texans is that it's always a former Patriots guy. If you look at the Lions with Bob Quinn and Patricia, they were the They were the mark over the last five years to go after these guys. That was Tennessee at one point. They have evolved.

So I feel like Tennessee is now on the high end of former Patriots organizational staffers. I feel like it's Vegas and the Houston, Texas right now, maybe competing. So thinking about Trey Flowers on a one-year deal, I wanted to ask you this. When you're thinking about players on one-year deals in free agency, is there a through line or a certain set of characteristics that, you ascribe to the hits. Is there something you're looking for in the types of one-year deals you want to sign with free agents? That's a good question. You know, I think it's sort of like you said earlier.

Like, why is this guy available on a one-year deal? What was it that he moved to an organization where the coaching was terrible? Like, what sort of ceiling has you shown in the past? Is he healthy? Does he have something to prove? Like, if you're just plugging in guys on one-year deals because nobody else wants them and you're stuck, like I think that's a problem. But, you know, I think even that sometimes work out.

I mean, look at Devandre Campbell. You know, a guy who was kind of an afterthought was, you know, a good athlete, but never a great coverage guy in Atlanta, really struggled. Wasn't really a great player for Arizona. Goes to the Packers. He's incredible. I mean, you know, I think I would like to tell you that I think those things are true. But I think it's just the reality of, you know, how good is your coaching staff? How good is your culture?

What can you do to get the most out of a player? And I think certain organizations are going to be able to do that and then get a lot of value out of one-year deals as opposed to some other organizations that are just signing guys on one-year deals because either nobody wants to play there because their cap is a mess or because they don't trust that they can get the most of a guy in a multi-year deal. Yeah, I think part of it, you can look at some of them and say, like, well, what's the value in this? Like a son rhetoric to me is a good example. For sure. If you're Carolina, you signed him to a one year, $8 million deal. He has a really nice season. And then he's going to leave.

So you could say, well, what do you really get out of that? But you get a comp pick if he signs for a really big contract elsewhere. So I think both in the short term and the long term, the simple answer to me is it's better to have good players on your team than to not, even if they're going to walk away after a year. Because there is still something you can recoup from that overall plan. Well, you only get the compic if the guy, if you don't sign somebody else at a salary level, which is. I will say, I mean, I'm a little surprised. Were you surprised Carolina did not franchise either? either of their free agents on the defensive side of the ball?

I try not to be like flippant and mean on this show. I'm not surprised by anything the Panthers do. What does that mean? I have no semblance of understanding about what their plan is with any of this. Do you? Um, it sort of feels like they're just shuffling deck chairs until they can actually get a great quarterback. Sure.

That's kind of what it feels like to me too. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. I mean I don't know I want to believe that there's more there the Gilmore thing was so interesting

because they made that trade when they were more competitive I think they felt like you know maybe if they did turn things around granted like I think all of us kind of saw what was happening

with Sam Darnold didn't think that was likely to happen I by the way I did love the report I think it was an ESPN report I'm not making fun of the report I'm making fun of what the Panthers are asking for here

but Panthers saying they're willing to trade Christian McCaffrey if they can get a first round pick and a player not making a lot of money. Sure. That's like me and my dynasty league trying to get Christian McCaffrey value as opposed to two years ago. I'll trade them, but I need a first round pick and a first round pick in the next three years too. Yeah. Justin Jefferson is the worst player I'm willing to accept for Christian McCaffrey. In my dynasty league, I have Terry McLaurin and now I have to live the Wendst life.

again after having Michael Pittman last year. All I want is to not have Carson Wets affect my well-being. Where did Michael Pittman finish in wide receiver rankings last year? Like 25th, 25th, 30th? I don't know. I'd have to look at it. Somewhere in that range, I think. I think he was better than that. I don't think he was that love. I don't know about that. He was 16th. And what rankings are you looking at? The pro football reference.com fantasy positional rankings. say Michael Pittman was the 16th ranked receiver in 2021. So, so I think it's pretty clear.

Carson Wentz can support a useful number one receiver. I think Terry McLaurin, yes. And points per game looking at my league in our scoring, he was 31st. I don't know what your scoring system is, man. I'm not, I'm not going to, I don't know what you're, you probably have IDP in your league or something. Total points he was 20th. So 20th is pretty good. Yeah, it's fine.

Yeah, it was fine. I still just rooting for Carson Wentz is a nightmare in any sort of way. So I feel for Washington fans at this point. All right, what's your next one? My next one. Okay, I'll go back to an old standby. This is like just me playing the hits. Mays, do you know that when teams hand out contracts to running backs,

it doesn't usually work out well? It's brutal, man. When we were doing our free agent preview this week with offense, I just don't even know what to say about that position because it's just like, well, what do you want your team to do? If you're shopping in this pool, you're probably already making a mistake. And I know that's a sad thing to say, but that's kind of how it feels at this point. I mean, again, leave whatever preconceived notions you have about how much running backs matter at the door. This is just what's happened over the last five years.

These are the three plus year contracts for running backs. Levy on Bell at the Jets. Jared McKinnon with the Niners Danny Woodhead with the Ravens Carlos Hyde with the with the Browns Latavius Murray with the Vikings

and the Saints Mark Ingram with the Ravens Dion Lewis with Tennessee Shane Verrine with the Giants Isaiah Crowell with the Jets I mean maybe you're looking at the Latavius Murray contract in New Orleans

and Mark Ingram with the Ravens as like the best case scenarios and even that maybe that's too much maybe you say okay I only want to give a two-year contract out the two-year contracts or maybe even worse. Corderle Patterson with the Raiders and the Bears.

Adrian Peterson with the Saints. Jonathan Stewart with the Giants. Chris Ivory with the Bills. Tedd Coleman with the Niners. Mike Davis with the Bears and the Falcons. T.J. Yelden with the Bills. Brandon Bolden with the Patriots. Melvin Gordon with the Broncos.

Jordan Howard with the Eagles. No, the dolphins, excuse me. Jannie McKissick with Washington. That's maybe the best hit so far. Payton Barber with Washington. And then last year, Kenyon Drake with the Raiders. Jamal Williams with the Lions, Devante Booker with the Giants, who's already been cut, Carlos Hyde with the Jaguars, Mike Boone with the Broncos, and Samage P. Ryan with the Bengals. I mean, like, you hit on like 5% of these contracts.

Like, it's just you're lighting your money on fire. And that sucks. And I don't want to discourage people from paying running backs, but like the evidence is there. It's just, it's just not a good way to find a useful running back. Yeah, I mean, for the most part, when these guys are hitting free agency, they're hitting for agency again for a reason. I think you can pay running backs and have it be okay for you. Like the Nick Chubb contract, I think, is a really good example. He's a really good player. I can understand handing that out. But Nick Chubbs said I hit in free agency, and there's a reason for that.

Yeah. I mean, we can get to the contracts handed out to running backs as well. That has not always been the best. But, I mean, I understand logic. Like, you want to get your quarterback's weapons. You want to have a guy you rely upon. But there's just these guys get hurt. They're so inconsistent.

And there's just so many guys out there who are good. Like just the sheer, staggering number of useful running backs. Like, you're just not doing your job. If you don't think that you as a GM can go out and find a useful back or a useful pair of backs to bring the camp and have a guy you can have as your second runner back behind whoever your starter is. Can I change the tone here a little bit and talk about some positives? because I think there is a position that if you're going to spend in free agency at the top of the market, it can work out okay for you. I have one position like this on my list as well. I want to see if we have the same position.

If you look at the best long term near the top of the market free agent deals of the last five years. Yep. There is one position, two positions, I guess, that take up a huge portion of that list. I'm really intrigued to see if you have the same position now. It's interior offensive line. I have center specifically. Yeah, and I think there are some guards that also fit this. Center is the best example, though.

Rodney Hudson, Yep. Alex Mack. Yep. Ryan Jensen. Yep. Even the Mitch Moore's contract has been just fine for the bills. Oh, I don't think the bills regret signing Mitch Morris for a second.

And I think the Corey Lindsay contract is probably headed that direction after them handing that deal last year for the Chargers. There are some guard contracts that I also think are pretty good, but they're not at the top of the market. The Brandon Brooks contract is the best example to me. Kevin Zitler had a couple contracts he's gotten, but Center is the best example. If you were going to spend on a center, it has worked out pretty well, especially when you compare it to other positions.

Now, if only we had a former football center on the podcast, you could opine on to why these contracts seem to work out more than, than. players to other positions. Do we have anyone who fits that bill? I've thought about this. And I just think that it's because what you need out, there's a certain stability that comes with that position, right? Like the guys that are established, it's almost like a disconnect between how much teams value it and how much it actually matters. The teams are willing to let these guys walk out the door for reasons that I guess makes sense. Like with Corey Winsley, for example, the Packers are paying so many other guys.

The reason that he's leaving is, well, we have to pay back. to our, and we have to pay Adams, we have to pay Rogers. At a certain point, there's not enough money to go around, and it's not a premium position, quote unquote, but paying that guy $11 million, if he's the right center for you, especially if you have a young quarterback, other aspects of your trajectory, that can be worth it. Yeah, I mean, absolutely. And I think that, you know, when I look at this market, and I think, okay, what can teens do to help their young quarterbacks, I think Ryan Jensen just stands out as like the obvious player to go for. I've been banging this drum for like three months.

Yeah, I mean, I don't know if you know this maze, but both our teams have young quarterbacks who could use a little bit of help. And I think Ryan Jensen would be probably a pretty good signing for either of them. Yeah, it is funny. I mean, just again, my own personal biases aside, like looking at every single list, it's like so many of those deals at the top of the market. So many instantly are regrettable instantly at most positions. And I mean, these center contracts, not only are they not instantly regrettable, but these guys are playing these out. They're hitting free agency again because of how good these deals are. And that's just such a rarity at the top of the market.

Yeah, Mac and Jensen both. I mean, it's always funny when I used to do grades for ESPN, people would be like, why are you such a hard grader? You're so naked. If I'm like, have you guys seen how bad free agent contracts work out most of the time? Like, you know, Center is definitely a place where people have found, you know, pretty significant long-term returns on the deal. They handed out. Yes, it is a small sample, but like, no one's going off of big samples in any other positions. I mean, I absolutely think that if I were a team and I would say, okay, we have to help out your own quarterback.

Even what's available in the market this year, unless you can go out and get, I don't know, Toronto Armstead maybe. And even then, I think I might prefer Jensen. Where do you think he ends up? That's a really good question. I think it depends on what other signings happen. Like if you're Miami, I could understand him wanting to go to Miami or them wanting him if they don't pay Armstead. So there are just certain other dominoes that have to fall. If you're Cincinnati, do you think that he's enough of an upgrade over Trey Hopkins where you would rather move on and have Ryan Jensen?

You could absolutely say the answer is yes. So many teams should be in the market for him that it's hard to know exactly where he's going to land. Is there another Trey Hopkins? I'm not aware of that Ryan Jensen is not a significant upgrade of course he's a significant upgrade but I think they like Trey Hopkins they like certain aspects of Trey Hopkins he's a smart guy you have a relationship with your quarterback it has to be a clear clear upgrade for them to move on from him and I think Ryan Jensen would represent that upgrade you know what the good news is they also need guards may as and Trey Hopkins then play guard as well all right what's your next one what is my next one

hmm wait did I do the last one I did running backs you did centers I guess my my my fourth one was center so i have one more left okay that's fine because i have one more left too okay this is a this is a sort of big picture one and it's sort of alerting vaguely to what we talked about so far but this is don't pay through the odds at positions where you can typically find guys for cheaper you can typically develop guys for cheap in the later rounds of the draft and running back is the obvious one but there's other positions where i also like this comes up linebacker is brutal Yep. Offball linebacker, like not pass rushing linebacker comes to mind. The Raiders alone have enough disaster offball linebacker stories over the last five years. Think about the recent ones.

Corey Littleton, Kwan Alexander, C.J. Mosley, I mean, these just don't work out very well. They just don't. And even if they're great, like, C.J. Mosley was pretty much, like, you know, perfect. He was like, like, there was no flaws in C.J. Mosley's resume. He just got paid so much more running than the Ravens were willing to pay. And he gets hurt in his first game with the Jets. after a pick six, by the way, of Josh Allen. And just a disaster. I mean, they couldn't have seen a COVID opt-out coming. They couldn't have seen him getting hurt, but it just did not work out.

Kicker, Greg Zerline in Dallas has been inconsistent. Jason Myers was the mess last year. I don't want to rub it in, but Cody Parky was the most prominent free agent signing at Kicker over the last several years. I don't want to talk about that too much for your sake. I'm already out enough of a bad day. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, and the slot guys.

I mean, slot receivers, Adam Humphreys, Danny Amandola, James and Crowder, Curtis Samuel, Randall Cobb, Albert Wilson. Again, I talked about it earlier. Cole Beasley's like the rare exception here. Slot Corners. Justin Coleman, Aaron Colvin, Kendall Fuller, Bryce Callahan, Patrick Robinson, Mike Hilton with the Bengals. Again, one exception. Oh, sorry, the enormous cardboard cut of my dog, but I'm taking to my wedding in a couple weeks. Sorry about that.

And even box safetys. Like today, Landon Collins was cut by Washington. And yes, again, they could not have seen him tearing his Achilles. But these deals don't typically work out? Tony Jefferson, Rayshon Jenkins with the Jags so far, Jonathan Cyprian, maybe Jordan Poy is the exception here. But like, you're going to have exceptions at every position. There's always something that's going to work out. You're always going to have that maybe 10% of the time or 15% of the time.

But with these free agent moves, like, there's no guarantee that you're going to have a perfect situation and there's no guarantee that it's going to fail. But you have to at least use history as a guy. You have to at least use what you know from the past from other teams to question yourself to say, okay, why is this guy going to be an exception? Why are we a better book for this guy than somebody else? Why are we going to get this right when so many other teams have gotten this wrong? And I think there are teams out there who do that and still make mistakes, but the vast majority of teams still don't treat that history like it means very much. I was, so I was looking through all these lists of free agent classes over the last couple

years earlier today. And Adam Humphrey's jumped out to me because you know that Adrian Amos and Adam Humphrey's got the exact same deal in free agency when they were free agents? Can I tell you an Adam Humphrey story? Of course. So I wrote about Adam Humphreys and I hated that deal. I gave it like a D free SPN. And I wrote like, this is such a bad deal. Smart teams like the Patriots don't don't ever do this. They develop. up their receivers and then later that day came up with the Patriots were trying to sign Adam Humphreys to the same deal and he chose Tennessee and I was like well I feel stupid but also like like this is a position they were able to sell they got Chukuby Myers as a uFA and he's been a much better player than

him humphreys I mean especially for the money I mean it's not even close not only that they had drafted Braxton Berrios that year and Braxton Berrios has turned up to be a better player than of Humphreys over the last couple of years like like I think there are so many spots the NFL where we see guys break out and we see guys develop from relative obscurity into being useful players the jaguars with james robinson are the classic example and instead of just trusting that okay there's more guys out there like that we can go fine to say okay well this guy proved it so we need a guy who's proven it and that doesn't mean anything because you've proven it in the past does not mean you're going to prove it in the future and i think that is the

like that leap of faith teams have to take it's so tough that even the patriots the best organization in the league in many cases are sometimes struggle to take that leap. So I just think it's, you know, it's easy for me to say as not a GAF, it doesn't have to make these decisions. But I think time after time, just the guys in those spots disappoint when they get bigger contracts. That makes total sense to me. All right. My last one here. Yep.

I think the sweet spot that you should be hunting in. And obviously it differs for positional value and a lot of considerations here. But just stick with me. about three and a half to five percent of the total cap for these deals is where you see a lot of success stories. Yeah. Look at last year, just 2021. That's where Matt Filer is.

Janoris Jenkins, Chidobie Uwzier, Danico Autry, go back a couple years. That's where Emmanuel Agba is. Ashon Robinson, who you just mentioned, Von Bell. Robert Woods is, to me, one of the best free agent success stories in recent years. that's where he was. A lot of those bills deals, the Poir deal, the High Deal, the Cole Beasley deal, they're in that range. And I think the couple really specific examples from as recently as last season are super telling, in my opinion. The Titans signed Janoris Jenkins to a $7 million a year contract.

Janores Jenkins is not an overly exciting player. No. But Janoris Jenkins for $7 million compared to the $13 million that the Giants gave, the guy he was replacing a Doree Jackson, you would rather have Genes Jenkins in that spot every single time, especially for the money. Yes, unfortunately so. Chidobiae is a direct response to what the Bengals did the year before, giving Trey Wayans twice as much money as they gave Chidobio Busier.

So I would so much rather be hunting in that $7 to $9 million range for especially positions like corner and offensive line where all you need is functional pieces. That is how I think you should weaponize free agency to your advantage. It's not to say, how can we go get the best players? It's how can we use this as a tool to create the best team? And that is, to me, the biggest thing you can learn from the bills is that the bills have done such a great job in free agency so rarely shopping at the top of the market. They're using this as a way. to plug holes and especially at positions where the unit is more important than individual talent like the secondary, the offensive line.

So that to me is the big takeaway. Like that range, there are plenty of examples the other way, but I think for the most part, the contracts you're going to feel best about in the moment two, three, five years from now are right in that three and a half to five percent of the cap range. Sorry, I was distracted. Every time you said hunted, I just imagined you with like camouflage and a hairnet, just just hunting for centers to take your calls and sign for the bears. I mean, I agree.

And, like, I think that's a, that is something that I think you can do as a organizational philosophy. It's not just about signing one player in that role, but it's about, okay, we're going to approach free agency over the next three years. And that's going to be the space we're operating in. And we're not going to stray from that. We're not going to, you know, I guess Bengals did a little bit like they did with Hendrickson. I'm trying to be great when I hated it. What do you think you would take from that? Because I think that's kind of an exception to a lot of the conversations we've had today.

And I was even thinking that as I was prepping for this. Is there anything you think you can take from the Hendrickson contract as an early success story? I mean, I hated the Trey Hendrickson contract and I hated the Sedaria Smith contract. And I was over two on both those deals. And I think there is a element of how teams are going to be, you know, using players. And I think there's, you know, something that stood me well in the past. past was sort of a combination of two things with that dressers. Number one, like, don't, I don't love guys getting big deals when they have one year of production. And I don't love

guys getting big deals when they're not the primary pass rushers for their teams. Like, if it's a secondary piece or a guy who's, you know, in a blitz happy scheme like the Ravens getting a big deal, like I'm thinking about like Paul Krue is a good example, where I was like, okay, well, like, one is a legit number one pass rusher when he's getting paid like that and it didn't turn up to be that guy. But Sedaria Smith, turned out to be a really useful player for the Packers when healthy. And Trey Hendrickson was a beast. He was a monster last year.

And I think two players are not enough. I think there's enough examples to the contrary to go against that. But I think at least I'm softening my stance. I'm at least saying, okay, like, Trey Hendrickson, you know, honestly, I don't know that I would change how I felt. Like he was, he was good for the Saints the year before, but like, he didn't have a time of knockdowns. It wasn't like he had a great, you know, underlying performance.

I think his win rates were good, but not great. Like he just had a lot of suck. Yeah, a lot of pressures. But I just went back and I watched them and I was like, I just don't know about this guy, man. He was a little stiff. Like, I just don't know what he really brings. He's just not my style of Russia. And I think that blinded me a little bit to it.

But you know what? Dude, dude can play. Yeah. Absolutely monster. I think, you know, one of the guys he reminds me of or one of the situations that reminds me, it was Cal Vandenbosch, where Cal Van der Bosch was in Arizona and then went to Tennessee. He was a superstar. But Cal Van Bynabash had a torniast.

He wasn't it wasn't like he got a big deal joining Tennessee like I think You know if I'm gonna be wrong on try interesting which I'm I am 100% wrong I've admitted it multiple times I'm happy to be wrong no matter what else happens from here on out Trey Hendrickson pushed that team to a Super Bowl that contract was good ten times out of ten like I think being wary about those deals is still the right attitude to have I think it's if if someone thinks it's a great deal I'm not gonna be as skeptical as I would have been in years past, but I think that, you know, it's going to take more players like that for me to be surprised. Maybe it's just going to be because guys are not going to get the opportunities they have early in their rookie contracts. Maybe, you know,

there's going to be different factors for each guy. But I just think that that's been such a good rule for so long that I'm scared to get off that prior now. Yeah, I think that's totally fair. And that's kind of how I feel about it. It's like, I was wrong. But it's just, there's been by everywhere in that range before. And I think, think that we should keep that in mind. All right, this was really fun. I appreciate the time, as always, buddy. It's so good to chat with you. I know that I have taken a lot from the way that you see this stuff. So I hope other people will as well. Anytime you need someone to do a lessons podcast, as you know, I'm here. I know. I appreciate that, buddy. Talk to you soon.

All right. It's time now to welcome one of my favorite people in the salary cap analysis, just the financials of the NFL space, somebody who is an invaluable resource to. me. CBS Sports is Joe Corey. Joel, thank you very much for taking the time to do this. I sincerely appreciate it. Oh, sure, no problem. So I wanted to have a conversation with you because I think it's an important precursor to the NFL offseason and the spending sprees the teams go on and even already what's happened this off season to kind of get a grasp of how teams manipulate and approach the salary cap. And the team I wanted to start with this right now, after the week that was, is the Green Bay Packers.

They hand Aaron Rogers a massive contract extension. They franchise tag Devante Adams. As I'm sitting here staring at it right now, they're set to be $45 million over the salary cap. So just on a basic level, how is Green Bay specifically in your mind going to approach this? Or how should they? Well, they've already made a dent in the overage because they restructured three contracts, which were given to me. David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, and Aaron Jones.

Rogers, once the extension is finalized and signed, he's going to create some cap room. He's got a $46.6 million cap hit, which is the second largest in the NFL. If it's anything like the previous contract where he had the largest signing bonus in NFL history at the time, which is now that press got at $66 million, they're going to draw. drop his base salary down to league minimum or close to it. And his signing bonus is supposed to be, say, $70 million. If they go that route, they'll pick up probably $12, $13 million in cap space. So that helps take care of part of it.

They could create more cap room if he's going to be more flexible in the amount of money he has coming in in 2022, where there's a huge roster bonus next year, and they worry about it, March roster bonus, it'll be essentially fully guaranteed. And then they can convert it next year so they can pick up even more cap space, maybe $20,000, $18 million if they go that route. So it would be interesting to see how that deal was structured. Having Aaron Rogers stay should give Devante Adams more leverage because the whole reason he's staying. Totally. Because the wide receiver.

And the franchise tag number is a shade over $20 million. since they don't do conventional guarantees except for Aaron Rogers, they have to give him a massive signing bonus, probably the biggest four-nine quarterback in NFL history, which right now is Aaron Donald with $40 million. So you give him a big signing bonus, low-based salary, you're going to chop that franchise tag number and a half if they get the deal done in a timely fashion.

And he's going to be the highest-paid wide receiver. The Packers didn't want to acknowledge It's the Andre Hopkins extension, but deals in a negotiate over new money. All they had three years left. The new money average $27.25 million. So it's going to be way up there now that he has an expiring contract, and they need the cap space. Another way they can possibly get it is cutting Zadarius Smith.

They'll pick up like $15 million that way. I thought one of the Smith brothers, maybe both will be gone, but he's the most likely one. if they can get Jaira Alexander done. He's got a $13.3 million fifth year option. They can lower the cap hit that way. And if they don't, they can borrow a page from what the Saints did last year, which is you get him to agree to convert everything but minimum salary into a signing bonus.

You add four boarding dummy years and you stick high base salaries in those years. So you have flexibility to do the deal with the way you want. going to do it, which is what they did with Marshawn Ladivore, you're going to pick up probably 8, 9, 10 million that way. So I wanted to ask you something you said. They don't do conventional guarantees outside of Rogers. What does that mean? Well, there are three teams in the league, which you're in the dark age is structurally to me.

The Packers, the Steelers, and the Bengals. Now, they'll give you a huge signing bonus for veteran kind of. and then in year two and year three for the bigger contracts, they'll have these unsecured third or fifth day in the league your roster bonuses. So you're still vulnerable. And a guy that happened to recently, maybe three years ago now, was Nick Perry. People like, who's he? Oh, I remember Nick Perry.

Yeah. Yeah. He had like a $6 million roster bonus and they cut it. If it'd been guaranteed, maybe they don't. But that's how they structure their deals. That was a big hold up with T.J. lot last year because the only person who'd ever had any type of salary guarantees was Ben Rafflesburg and they were injury-owned. So they made a huge departure of T.J. Watt

and gave them base salary guarantees and a signing bonus. We had 80 million fully guaranteed signing. The Bengals do the deals just like the Steelers and the Packers do for everyone except Aaron Rogers. And the one I'm keeping an eye on is not anything this year. But, But Joe Burrow, when the time comes, they're probably going to have to throw that convention out the window and start a new president with him. Now, if I'm the agent for some of these top offensive linemen pre-agents, and I know how Cincinnati structures deals, they're not going to be the most attractive destination to me from a guarantee standpoint. And they would have to front load the contract from a cash standpoint just to make it attractive. attractive to me if I represented one of those guys. But they've been able to get away with it from years.

Trey Hendrickson took that structure. Trey Wayne's took that structure. So I anticipate that agents won't have much pushback on it. And the real litmus test will be Joe Burrow. This is the stuff that's fascinating to me. These little accounting quirks that each team has in the way that they do things. So with Rogers, and I want to talk about the Saints in relation to the Packers here in a second. But you mentioned that there's a chance that they would do a structure where

There's a huge roster bonus next year that they can convert to a signing bonus and create space that way. Based on my very, very novice understanding of this, that's how Patrick Mahomes' deal with structured in some ways, right? He has a roster bonus this year that can be converted into a signing bonus. Why don't more teams lean on those roster bonuses as a lever they can pull to kind of create space in future years? Well, you only want to do the restructures of guys you think are going to be around. otherwise you come into problems with dead money and the Steelers had that problem maybe three years ago because they had done restructures with Antonio Brown not and this is when everyone thought Antonio Brown was pretty much a normal football player who didn't have drama everywhere he went.

There was some isolated incidents that got out but I don't think Mike Tomlin gets enough credit for being able to handle that situation and not. not have it disrupt the team. But they restructured his contract, turn roster bonus and base salary and signing bonus. They need a man to trade. And at the time, his,

I think it was like 20, almost 21 million in dead money. It was one of the biggest ever, right? It was the largest ever at that time. It's been surpassed significantly. Carson Wetz will come for you. Yeah, but they were probably anticipating he's a stable guy on the team.

He's going to be here. for the duration and then he demands to trade and you have a problem. So you have to be careful on who you pick to do the restructures. Otherwise, you're going to have a ton of dead money. But Mahomes' deal is unique from the standpoint that it's so long. Yeah. It's been in your extension. And he's got roster bonuses of like starting next, it's like 27 and half this year.

It's like over 35 million in the next three, four years and upwards to close to 50 million with peaks. But that was designed specifically to create cap room. But the bigger issue of him is we already have a reported $50 million per year quarterback. I can't imagine after winning a Super Bowl, Matthew Stafford isn't coming in above Mahomes. The only way he doesn't is if he tells his agent Tom Condon that, yeah, I'm going to give the Rams a slight financial break to try to run it back. Matthew Stafford's made a lot of money playing football. Yeah, he's made, I think, $240 million. I would consider that a lot.

That's more than I've made doing this. Yeah, Rogers has made $265 before this contract. But we'll see if Rogers isn't taking a discount. We'll see if Stafford, if the reports are accurate, we'll see if Stafford does, but if Tom Cottonon's devices, that thing's coming in, 46, 47 million. I don't know if Russell Wilson gets a deal this year or next year, but his first extension made the second highest paid player in the league. Then he refragged Aaron Rogers to become the highest paid when he signed in 2019.

He's going to be way up there. And those two studs who won't be eligible until the end of the 2022 regular season for contract extensions, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, I expect them to go past Roger. And we haven't gotten to Kyla Murray, Lamar Jackson, and then Derek Carr, if he's going to get a market value extension, he's probably got a four is the first digit. And we know Kurt Cousins, Kirk Cousins, not Kurt language, I don't want to say, Kurt. Cousins like Captain Kurt. He isn't anyone who cuts anybody any break financially. So this Packer-Mahomes contract at some point becomes a problem for the Chiefs because he's going to look at everyone around the league or quarterbacks. It's going to be human nature and go, hey, I'm underpaid because I'm old enough to remember Magic. Johnson in one point signing a 25-year, $25 million contract, had that work out for him.

Had to readjust it at some point in time. So I'm curious, if we look at the Packer situation, and we compare it to the last several years of the Saints approach to this, where they're trying to pry open the window with Drew Brees, they understand there's only a certain limited amount of time they can do this. Is there anything magic about what the Saints were able to do? Anything that, as somebody who really appreciates the... the art of this stuff, you found yourself kind of nodding, be like, oh, that's, that's well done there. Or is it something where they just keep pushing it and pushing it and pushing it, and there's really

nothing magic about it? Eventually, they're going to pay for this. Well, they did kind of pay for it last year because the one thing no one could have expected was a pandemic where revenues drop and then the cap drops from 198.2 million to 182, 182.5. So teams planning three-year snapshot. So that was unforeseen. And that caught a lot of teams off guard, but particularly the Saints because they had about $110 million of cap commitments they had to shed to be compliant when the 2021 league year started. Then found a way to franchise Marcus Williams for $10.6 million. I don't think that was possible.

Truly shocking. Just one of the more surprising things I can remember. You're going to be able to outrun it. when the cap increases. And we're going to have the new media rights deal starting to hit the cap next year. We'll pay back the money that we had to borrow to keep the cap from going off of a cliff last year. So I know some teams conservatively, and they have to project conservatively, have the cap at 225 to 230 next year. That's conservative.

So let's say it's 235. Where is it going to be in 2024? 260, 25? So you can probably outrun kicking the can down the road with the cap increases. And it seems like the Packers are well served to follow the Saints playbook when it comes to this stuff. We're not going to have a choice. Yeah. So I'm curious, are there teams that are also up against it pretty consistently year to year,

whether it's the Chiefs, it's the Rams, teams willing to eat dead money, teams that are kind of saying, we're all in all the time. Is there anything unique about the way one of those teams approaches this? One that stands out to you compared to the rest, just the way they approach the finances of the process. Well, Philadelphia has been a team past couple of years that has been very aggressive with the salary cap, more so than you might think,

that they're bordering in the Saints territory. They'll stick an option bonus and do a restructure, early where they're already creating the cap room avoiding dummy year, there's a lot of things I have to do last year if the cap dropping. So they already have the second restructure

planned with the option bonus. The Rams are unique from the standpoint. They haven't met a premium pick they liked, but that doesn't mean they don't have a lot of draft picks. They just have them day three, third round on second part of day two, but they do have a good part of their roster composed of draft picks, but they love dead money in Los Angeles.

They're certainly not afraid of it. Well, they had Todd Gurley had substantial dead money. Between the two years, it was split. It was 20 million. Brandon Cooks was like 21-8. And then this year, between the dead money for Jared Gough and the actual cap hit for Matthew Stafford, the dead money was bigger. They had 44.7 million of cap devoted to the quarterback position with just those two guys.

So when teams say, oh, you can't win the Super Bowl, when you have a lot of money for the cap tied up in quarterback, you can point to that one because more of it was in dead money. And what the dead money does, it means that you have less actual cap space for players who are on your roster to make a contribution. So they have like $40 million in dead money this year. And that's one team that definitely is not afraid of having a substantial part of their cap just be a sunk cost, which can't go to improve to improving the team. At a basic level, is there any, how do they survive that? Well, they've got great players.

That's one thing they've done. They decided, well, we're going to have a pick at the back of the first round. I'd rather have Jalen Ramsey, who's the highest paid quarter for now, than a draft pick which may or may not hit. And they've been able to, like this year, they gave up more in draft compensation than they should have to acquire Von Miller. He had like nine, seven of cash left when they made the trade, but they gave up a second and a third, and part of that was so Denver would eat $9 million a salary on the way out

the door. So they only had to take on $722,000. So they've been able to manipulate things that way as well, but they've been very active in the high-end trade market. It also doesn't hurt when you have Aaron Donald on your team. Sure. The good players thing is often the solution to all of these problems, but I was wondering if it was more complicated than that. So outside of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, who's been creative, are there other teams that you would characterize as the best teams at manipulating the cap to their advantage as they stay aggressive and stay hungry in this? San Francisco. I like some of the things that they do. And sometimes when I say I like things that a team does, it's stuff I wouldn't like from the agent standpoint. Sure. Because they have a late guarantee date in their contracts. Typically, when salary, guarantees best. It's the third day of the league year, the fifth day of the league year.

Theirs is always April 1st. I don't know how they've been able to do that, but it's April 1st. One thing that they require in almost every contract is pretty substantial per game roster bonuses, which I hate it as an agent, but it gives them cap relief if a player gets hurt because you have to be on the active roster for that particular game to earn the amount for the per game roster bonus. I'll give an example of how that works. Once upon a time they had a quarterback named Colin Kaepernick. And in his contract, he had $2 million each season of per game roster bonuses. There was one season where he missed about half of the season.

Cost of about a million dollars because of per game roster bonus. not he wasn't suiting up those games so he's out of the money they get cap relief and a cash break when that happens i hated those when i was an agent and they did something which was pretty unique with the jimmy gropolo contract first no one expected them to give him making the highest paid player in the league after five games but they did it in a very team friendly manner that that first year he had like a 28 million dollar roster bonus which was counting all in the first year a small signing bonus, which is why when they eventually trade him,

they're going to pick up like $25.5 million in cap space because the dead money is minimal. Even last year, there was very little dead money on his deal, right? I mean, they could have traded him last year and got almost all of the savings back, which is pretty rare for a quarterback contract to have two years of almost no dead money. That is very rare. It's just that they didn't, I wasn't.

wouldn't have gone with Tray Lance last year for one of the reasons. Had all those first round quarterbacks, he was, to me, the least ready because he didn't play at all. It was a one-year starter, and then they played one game during the pandemic year. So he was never going to be ready to play, even though they were towing with the idea. We'll have a package for him, but that went out the window very quickly. But to me, you give up everything to go from 12 to 3. I don't really see Jimmy Garoppel being around this year.

and the way the quarterback market is shaking out. I don't know who plays in Indianapolis, but as it stands right now, Derek Carr is going to be a raider, and Kirk Cousins is going to be with the Vikings. So for you the Colts, who's your guy? So here's my thought with the veterans, right? Here's my thought with Cousins, Carr, Garapolo, whoever it might be.

Maybe not Garapolo, because I think the ceiling is lower. But I was thinking about this today, as it relates to, let's say, hypothetically, Derek Carr, the Colts. So if you trade for Derek Carr in your Indianapolis, he has one year left on his deal, right? After that, he's probably looking at, like you said, a deal worth $40 million a year at least. Could you, in theory, rationalize making that deal, you pay him, I think it's 21 this year or something in that range? You're already ahead. You're already ahead seven million between Wents and Carr that way. A hundred percent. So let's say the tag next year is 34. And a second

tag would be 40. Here's the problem. I know where you're going with that, but here's the problem. Most quarterbacks get the exclusive tag, not the non-exclusive tag. And that's a different calculation. That is the average of top five salaries in that particular lead year at the end of the restricted trade and signing period. But restructures get frozen the day you tag the guy. So let's say Patrick Mahomes' deal gets restructured to a lower cap number. Two days after they stuck a tag on them with an exclusive tag, you're stuck with that higher cap number for those calculation purposes

and that number is going to be well over 40 million. So you're talking two tags, then average that. It's a different calculation than two tags averaging the non-exclusive tag. So that was my thought. That's where I figure you were going. If two tags landed

somewhere around 74 million for the two years beyond this and you're paying them 21 this year, then you're sitting there. You might be talking 95. That's three years 95, though. Three years 95 is palatable to me. No, no, I'm talking 95 for the two tags plus the 20. Oh, yeah, exactly.

So now you might as well extend him because it gives you the flexibility, right? Then here's the problem that I'm waiting for this to happen with the non-exclusive franchise tag for a non-quarterback. If you ever step the non-excusive tag on a quarterback, given the compensation, teams have been given up for the better non-quarterbacks, like maybe Larry Concierge was not for. best example. But Jayman Ramsey went for more than two first round picks. So to Khalil Mack. And the compensation for an unmatched offer seat is two first round picks. So the best compensation for non-quarterback is more than two first round picks. You stick a non-exclusive tag on a

quarterback for two first round picks. At some point, someone's going to pull the trigger on that. That's all I had for you. I really just wanted to pick your brain about some of this stuff. If you guys are not reading Joel's work on CBS, I'm telling you, it is so, so valuable to understanding the landscape of some of this stuff. He wrote, I think today about some of the guys that he'd want to be representing in this market based on some of the numbers that they might hit. Even as somebody who thinks about this stuff all of the time, the work that Joel is doing over there is so, so important. You guys will learn a ton if you go check it out. I really appreciate the time, man. It's always good to chat with you.

Sure, Tom. Thanks for having. All right, guys. That's all we got. Really enjoyed today's show. Thank you to Bill. Thank you to Joel. On Saturday, please check out the football GM on Apple Audio Plus or the athletic app if you're a subscriber to those.

Mike and Randy Mueller do such a great job. So please go check that out. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I would really appreciate that. Please subscribe to the athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. A little bit of housekeeping for next week. Lindsay is going to be joining me on Monday.

We're going to talk about the teams that kind of hold the cards this off season. A team like the Chargers, who obviously has made a huge move today, but probably have some other moves to make. Teams with CapSpace, teams that have reasons to be aggressive. We're going to talk about that on Monday. And then starting Monday afternoon, every day next week, as Free Agency gets ramped up, we're going to have a live reaction show. We're going to do it at 4 p.m. Eastern on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. and we're going to have all of our friends. We're going to be reacting to those signings as they happen

as the tampering period starts to ramp up. So please be on the lookout for that. One of my favorite stretches of the year, excited to share that time with you guys. Hope you guys enjoy your weekend. As always, thanks for listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.