The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Kirk Cousins' big decision, the loaded RB market, teams to watch out for in free agency, and more with Dianna Russini

Episode Date: March 7, 2024

It's Kirk Cousins' world, and we're all living in it. Well, those of us who are neck-deep in NFL free agency, at least. Cousins will be among the big prizes when free agency opens next week, but who else will make headlines? Which teams should we expect to get aggressive? What does it mean that this is the most loaded running back free agent class...ever? Robert Mays and Dianna Russini answer those questions, and a whole lot more, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Take our listener survey! theathletic.com/survey24Follow Robert on X/Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Dianna on X/Twitter: @DMRussiniSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today is the Athletic Senior NFL insider, Dan, Rousini. Diana, how are you? So much better than the last time I saw you. I was hanging on by a thread. We were on very little sleep.

We were caffeinated. We're at that point where you're so retired and so caffeinated that nothing's even working and you're just kind of getting through it. And I'm shocked that our voices lasted, but they did. So I am now rested. I'm refueled. I'm like back at the gym. I'm back in my routine.

So it's like it's coming together perfectly. As we know, it's getting busy. I allowed myself to be a real piece of shit last weekend. Like I was horizontal for most of it. I ate like absolute garbage. Just whatever was in front of me. There was a lot of delivery happening. I gave myself till Monday.

and then I actually started putting vegetables back in my body, got back on the Peloton. So I'm slowly working my way up back to where I was. But it's going to take at least a little bit longer. Yeah, you know, I got the boys at the house. And I basically just went on their nap schedule. So it was like the 41 year old, the two year old and the one year old all napping throughout the day. And my husband was stuck just dealing with any. He actually, to his credit, he didn't say a word.

Like, you know, usually your partner kind of nags you about it. And like, hey, are we really doing it? he knew I was done. I'm excited to meet this man because he seems like an absolute saint. Everything I've ever heard about him, it just seems like he's one of the top shelf human beings you could ever come across. Yeah, I married a really good soul. He's, you know, I've shared this a lot.

He's very grumpy. Like his vibe is not us. Like, we're pretty cheerful people. Like, Kevin's kind of grumpy all the time. But his heart's really big, I guess. That's what matters. That's all that matters. All that matters.

So I have to deal with a little bit of the moodiness. especially coming off this trip and he was asking me Eagles stuff. So I gave him some. That's probably where the moodiness comes from. It's not about having to watch the kids or you being gone or anything like that. The moodiness is all Eagles based at this point. Which is why I work smart and you know this about me. So soon as I saw Eagles people, I immediately was like, I don't need dirt.

I don't want to hear about anything. Tell me something you're excited about. Tell me, give me something optimistic. And then all I do, I never report it, never talk about it with anyone. goes right to Kevin's ears, and I went them back. That's the right type of wife to have when you need that info. We're going to dig into a lot of stuff as it relates to the free agent market. We're about five days away, when this comes out, four days away from the start of the tampering period.

So many things to dig in. Before we do that, though, just wanted to give you guys a heads up again. You listen to us. Now we want to hear from you. We're asking you to fill out a quick survey about you and your podcast habits by going to theathletic.com slash survey 24. Three of those lucky entries will win $100 worth of Amazon gift cards. So whether you're a long-time listener, a new listener, we want your feedback.

Go to theathletic.com slash survey 24. That is theathletic.com slash survey 24. The link is also in the podcast description below. All right, let's dig into this. Where we left it when you and I talked at the combine last week at the end of the week, there was so much speculation and so much interest around what the Kirk Cousins market was going to look like because that is the domino. That is the quarterback market domino that could help dictate everything else.

We talked about Atlanta last week and we talked about Minnesota's desire to keep him. I think there's a real drumbeat in that building from certain people that they want him back. So where do things stand on Wednesday, March 6th, compared to where they might have been on Friday as it relates to Kirk Cousins's market? Yeah, there's definitely been some momentum that has picked up over the last few days with the idea of Kirk Cousins actually really truly leaving Minnesota as a Viking to join the Atlanta Falcons. And none of this obviously can legally happen because it's tampering. So the only thing that can technically happen right now is the agent can have conversations

with the Vikings about what a deal could look like and what it would, what it means, and how it would be structured. And the Vikings are well aware what Kirk is looking for. And I think at this point right now, Kirk's camp is pretty aware of where Minnesota's at. And I'm not certain that they're lined up. And there is a belief that Kirk can get a better deal from Atlanta just purely based on the amount of money they have and that they're willing to offer if it were to get there. Now, lots of times when you're collecting information to try to see how teams are angling for free agency, you can go. through other agents that don't represent the quarterback. And you can go through

coaches and there's all different avenues where you can kind of find out what teams are thinking. And that's why you're probably seeing a lot of reports right now that it's Kirk Cousins to Atlanta, almost as if it's done. And from all the information I've been getting, I think there has been definite conversations with people in the building about Kirk being the guy how they believe they've got a great defense, a strong offensive line. They've obviously got these weapons. They've got Rahim Morris, who's got that obvious familiarity with Kirk Cousins from their days in Washington and Zach Robinson.

They're calling plays. Yes, for the first time, right? But that would be Kirk's risk in the situation of, you know, working with a new play caller. But I know right now there's a little, there's a lot of question marks. Is this real? Is this a play? and I can tell you that the Atlanta Falcons interest in Kirk Cousins is very, very real. The only question I had about Atlanta and Kirk Cousins and their desire to get something done there is what Atlanta saw as their timeline.

How much urgency was they're heading into this year with the first year of a new coaching staff? And justifiably, you're in year four of the Terry Fondo era. You've built up this roster. You started spending money last year. So if their answer is yes, we have a desire to win in 2024, then them being in on Kirk makes all the sense in the world. they have all these rookie contract guys on their offense. They can afford a quarterback that kind of brings it all together. My main question for you, what is the disconnect as far as you know between what Atlanta is

willing to offer and what Minnesota is willing to offer and why Kirk might be leaning toward the Falcons? Is it years? Is it dollar amount? Is it guarantees for a certain number of years? Where are we? What's funny about it is it's all connected in a way, right? So the simple answer is Kirk wants to feel wanted.

He wants to feel like he's the guy. All right. So then what does that mean from a contract financial category? Well, it means guaranteed years, right? Because that means you're not moving on from him and you're showing him that he's the guy by paying him. So if Minnesota is only willing to commit to Kirk Cousins for, let's just say, a two-year deal and even perhaps maybe even two years guaranteed, is that enough to get Kirk to come back? or is he more comfortable with a three-year deal, perhaps two years guaranteed, or maybe even if the Falcons were willing to give three years, because you have to figure if anything is going to put it over, if anything is going to tip the scale if it was close.

And I do believe it's close because Kirk does have these roots in Minnesota now. They enjoy it there. I think we've all seen it. We saw on the Netflix special. We see the Instagram. I follow his wife, Julie. I think a lot of people do too. They look like they love Minnesota.

So I think if Minnesota is able to give him some assurance through this contract, through their future plans at the quarterback position, I think Kirk goes back. But I don't necessarily believe that that's going to be on the table for Minnesota. I don't know if that's the direction that they want to move in if they're just all in on Kirk Cousins for the next, let's say, two to three years. whereas Atlanta has a completely different type of pitch. They can say, yes, you're the guy. We want you here. We've got the money. There's no questions.

There's no insecurity theory. There's no worry. You are the guy. We're not making any moves at the quarterback position if you come here. And, you know, if you hear that, if you're Kirk, you know, you can see why there would be a lot of interest. It's such a juicy push and pull. And we've talked about this so many different times.

But I'm pretty comfortable saying. this. I think Kevin O'Connell would love to be able to compete with Kirk Cousins, and I think the people in the front office want to get on a rookie quarterback timeline, both for the financial benefits of it and for the upside benefits of it. You have a guy as your general manager who has been on the analytic side of this forever. I think he understands the benefits of getting on that timeline and potentially getting a player who has a theoretically higher upside than Kirk Cousins. But Kevin O'Connell's job is to win football games. So that push in the poll always exists between front offices and coaching staffs in the NFL.

We're just seeing it play out in real time in a pretty blatant way, in my opinion, with what's going on in Minnesota right now. And it doesn't always end well, right? Because you're talking about two different philosophies. You have two, you have a GM and a head coach with different pressures as you painted. Whose leash is longer? You know, who's safer in the eyes of owners? You know, does one feel like they're in a better position than the other?

and it really does come down to the standard that's being set or at least being spoken to from the owners. Like what were they saying to Kevin? What are they saying to the building in terms of what they want to do there? You know, having success, a few games above 500 with Kirk Cousins, is really good for a lot of teams. But at some point, owners are going to want the word Super Bowl said in their building. That's right.

Can you get us to the Super Bowl? and that comes with another set of pressures. So if ownership doesn't believe that, if they don't believe that Kirk can get them to the Super Bowl, and for some reason, they're able to get Kirk to come back and they pay him all this money and they don't, they're losing their jobs.

Like it's that simple. So this move here at the quarterback position is going to tell us a lot about the future of the people in place in Minnesota because there are people that are sticking their necks out or perhaps maybe even not. not to self-preserve. So we'll see how this comes together.

But for Atlanta, right now, it looks like they could be in the driver's seat in terms of all the things that they're able to provide Kirk Cousins. And the difference between Atlanta and the team like Minnesota, again, Atlanta's urgency to just win, win the division, get to the playoffs. That's what they want to do. And I think Minnesota, at least on the team building side, is trying to take a longer view of it. And they're going to pay Justin Jefferson $35 million a year.

Christian Derasaw's contract is coming up. They already paid T.J. Hawkinson. Brian O'Neill is on a second contract. At a certain point, you got to save somewhere. And I think the plan all along was to try to save it quarterback as they stepped into this next stage. So how that unfold is going to be incredible to watch. Is there another, oh, go ahead. Doesn't this also sound like the way we're painting Atlanta too with all the pieces they have

and just there are just a quarterback away? Doesn't it sound like the 2018 Vikings? Like there's like these similarities. Yes. And guess what? They were wrong. They were wrong. When you are a, I think Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback.

I like watching Kirk Cousins. I think you could argue he's playing the best football of his career. But the fact that he might prevent a team like the Vikings from getting to the Super Bowl and a team like Atlanta thinks he's what's going to take them to the next stage, that's when you have that guy and where you're at in your team building process, two franchises can see him completely different ways. That speaks to a guy like Kirk Cousins. He is a Rorschach test that I think says more about where you are as a franchise than what he is as a quarterback. I think that Minnesota is well aware right now that their future is, it's going to be determined in the next 4872 hours, right? Because we're going to know here if Cousins' as agent is going to go back to Minnesota and say thanks, but no, thanks. We're going to tampering.

We're going to go see what's out there. So a lot's going to go down over the next few hours. Is there another team in the mix, or do you think it's Minnesota or Atlanta at the end of us? I think it's between Minnesota and Atlanta. I think there are a couple teams on the outside kind of poking around, had a couple little conversations around the league with people who may be in the know about it. But I think when it comes down to it, it's going to be just a two-horse race here for Kirk Cousins, as we know, and we're going to get to here.

There's other quarterbacks that are in play around the league that we've got to keep an eye on. it felt like Baker might be the consolation prize to whatever team missed out on Kirk Cousins. Do we still feel that way if he's going to make it to free agency or does it seem like something's going to get done with Tampa before we get there? I feel good that it's going to get done with Tampa. And the reason why I feel good is I don't believe the market is going to be as big as perhaps Baker may have thought it would be or maybe perhaps how it should be after the type of year he had. Now, that being said, there were some, there was some whispers that perhaps Baker would be the option for Minnesota. If they lost Kirk, I was told that is not true. That's not a type of player that they're looking to go after. Think more Sam Darnal type to. Yeah, it makes no sense. My question was, do they want a guy that can help to compete now if it's not Kirk?

But it really does seem like Kirk is the guy that Kevin O'Connell would want, not insert veteran quarterback here on a pretty decent extension. Correct. You're going, they're going draft. It's, it's Kirk or. draft, right? Yes. That's it. Or both, right? Kirk draft or both. Well, that's interesting too, because going back to Kirk, I'm very curious how that

would work. You're going to sign Kirk and draft a quarterback. Okay, that's fine. Is Kirk okay with that? Is he going to be okay with the Vikings doing them? We've heard of stories in the past where quarterback's like, great, I'll sign here, but you're not drafting a quarterback. So I'm interested to see how this would play out if you're able to get Minnesota.

I don't think it's a lock. I don't. And it depends on what those conversations are going to be in. Hopefully we'll be able to find out. But in terms of Baker, it seems to be pointing in that direction. Tampa told me they want to get it done, all these people there. They want to get this deal done. They love Baker.

Bakers people have told me Baker loves Tampa, right? So it's great. It's going to probably happen. The snag is going to be the money. Because Baker has earned himself a new deal. That is very fair to say. And a lucrative one, one more than one that would be better than $4 million per year. It's just where does it, where does this what does this look like?

Is this exactly Gino-Smith? No. It's higher money with actually the Gino-Smith flexibility. Wouldn't you agree? That's probably the space where they can agree on. I think it makes sense. I think that's probably the best outcome for Tampa. Correct.

That's a win for Tampa. the problem is if Atlanta's not going on the door of Kirk here, Atlanta's out on Baker. Minnesota's not in on Baker. So who are the other suitors? And trust me, I'm sure there's some that we just don't know of right now. But I think it just lines up better.

And the fact that Mike Evans went back to Tampa Bay when he was willing to hit free agency, that was, you know, I reported on Sunday night that Evans was going to. to go through the experience. And I know there were a lot of people were like, well, that was a leverage play. And it truly was not. Mike Evans and his wife made the decision

that they were frustrated by Tampa in general and they just wanted to see what it felt like. They wanted to feel the love. And I don't blame them. And some stuff happened in their household where they decided, let's just get this done. And Evans called his agent, you know, on Sunday night late or on 1130.

actually and was like, let's do this. Let's just go to Tampa Bay. Get me the best deal you possibly can. I'll probably take less to go there, but I want to be there. And that's how that came together. So the fact that Baker knows his favorite receivers there certainly helps the calls for his return. The Mike Evans resigning is a signal to me that Tampa just wants to see this through.

Whatever started last year, they want to see that through. And I totally understand that. You outperformed expectations. You had something click into place with a quarterback and a supporting cast. Most of your offensive line is. coming back intact. Even if you're swapping out offensive coordinators, I get saying, we were a playoff team last year.

Why not just try to push it as far as we can? That being said, quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, they are going to put a ceiling on who you can be. That is always how it's going to be. So you need to maintain that flexibility to say, if we get into a place during the 2025 draft where there is a quarterback available to us that gives us an off ramp to the next stage of our franchise, does Baker's contract and Baker's outlook allow us to do something like that. And if the answer to both those questions is yes, fine.

I think it's keeping him incentivized, having to continue to also earn it, yet not having to pay that Daniel Jones type contract that, look, it's when you have these conversations around the league and you talk to the agent side of this, they continually tell you all, that's what the market is, right? We talked about this last show. That's what the market says. that's what Daniel Jones is getting, Baker should get that. But no, that was a really bad deal. Sorry, Joe Shane. That was a bad deal.

Because the market didn't dictate that. They were negotiating it themselves. Correct. That's why that's a bad deal. And it's why it's a disaster in New York for those reasons because they messed up on that contract. And now they're going to try to have to figure out a way to get around this and hopefully get Daniel Jones back on the field healthy and playing at a high level.

but the reason why a lot of, you know, agents are doing that. They're just using that as a number. So I would too. If Daniel Jones is worth 40, my guy's worth 40. That's exactly what I would put on the table walking into that room. But then teams are saying what we just said, right?

Like, no, that's not what the market is. They're idiots for doing that. You know, like that's not a true earned contract for a player of that caliber. Right? He's more in that 30 to 30. 35 range. Now, do I think that Tampa probably came out a little low? Yes, because it's a

negotiation. But those numbers are going to probably come up and it will most likely get done unless a big snag in this happens, which I've seen before. And there are teams that need quarterback. So maybe if a second one gets in the mix, does that market change a little bit? And we'll know about that in the next five or so days here. One more team's planet quarterback that I wanted to dig into. Russell Wilson released by the Broncos or at least announced it'll be least with the start of the league year. Let's just go down on that road one more time about the relationship between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson, how we arrived at this moment. What do you think ultimately led to this imploding with Denver over the course of the last year? I'd almost argue

that it's just everyone failed everybody. You know, it was never the right fit. And I mean, how many examples have we seen over the years when it's an arranged marriage? It's just, it's tough. It is really hard, especially with a personality like Sean Peyton, who has, a very clear vision of what he's looking for and their characteristics he wants in his quarterback. While I think he was open to trying to make this work with Russell knowing the guy has won a Super Bowl and he has talent, I think the struggle was really just the type of quarterbacks that he's worked with prior.

And again, the type of quarterback in terms of running his offense wasn't what Russell is. So they're just grinding one another. And then you have the egos and all this. And both are so guilty of having gigantic ones. You don't say Sean Payton and Russell Wilson have egos? I mean, I can't even imagine what a meeting like was what that was. So like Sean Peyton and Drew Brees were like notorious, not notorious, but famous for these night before the game. Quarterback coach meetings were the dot meeting.

The dot meeting, yes. And I used to cover the saints tons. So it's just all these little amazing stories of their relationship, which, by the way, it wasn't always perfect either. They had their, they had their issues. They'd go through the game plan the night before. And what the dot meeting refers to is they would dot, Drew would dot the place you like the most. And they were often like long, drawn out arguments about why certain place should be in, why they shouldn't be. Like those two guys, there was good creative tension between those two, I guess is what I would say.

And it was long nights. They were long, long nights where they were doing this, where most quarterbacks head coaches are going to bed the night before. You know, they're trying to get in by, I don't know, 10, 10, 30. Those dudes were up until midnight, sometimes one, going through this stuff for the next day. So I don't necessarily believe that that relationship and that comfort was there between Peyton and Russell.

And from all the conversations I had even this past week in Indy with people in Denver, I don't ever sense that there was any, there was like hate or anger towards the, it just didn't work. And they looked at the situation and they did what I think a lot of teams just would be resistant to doing because it's so much money. But if they didn't feel that they were going to get anywhere,

you have to give them a little bit of credit of going, this didn't work. Let's eat it. So now what happens? Because this team, I can't figure them out. they have almost no one under contract in 2025. Russell Wilson is going to carry a $50 million dead cap hit in 2025. So what is the team building plan moving forward?

And even in the shorter term, what is the quarterback plan for this season? I think the Jared Stidham answer is still, the problem we'll call it, is still trying to be solved, right? Like, they like them. They know he's good. I don't think they believe he's amazing, you know. So they have a nice base here for at least understanding they've got someone in the building that is comfortable with Payton and can run his offense the way he wants it to be. I do think that they are looking at the veteran market.

You know, there was a little bit of chatter that they would be in on Kirk Cousins, which we just talked about Kirk's money and how much he's worth. So then Denver would go and invest in another very expensive quarterback. Maybe pay $90 million to their quarterback room in 2025 if they did something like that. And look, here's something I know from covering Payton for many years. He doesn't love young quarterbacks. He just doesn't. It's not his style.

He likes the veteran guys. He likes guys who've just been through it, the experience, the intelligence, the emotional intelligence, the maturity, all that. He just fits. He prefers that type. being said, do I still think that they have their eye on a quarterback in the draft? Absolutely. I think they're always looking. And that's just his personality, right? He's always going to be looking for the next Patrick Mahomes since he lost out on him. So look, I think the safe bet would be they go with Stidham. They probably sign one of these second tier quarterback,

these veteran quarterbacks that are going to be available. Maybe it's a Jacoby Brissette even. you know, there's that Parcell's connection, Parcells and Jacoby percent are really, really close. Perhaps maybe that's something that comes into play. So we'll see what they do there. I think they're just in complete rebuild mode, but they're doing it with optimism. I can tell you that. Like I saw Davis Webb, the quarterback's coach. No one's freaking out there.

You know, like I'd be freaking out. I mean, at the time, I had known that what they were doing. Everyone in town knew that they were cutting Russell Wilson. And so it was kind of like, all right, what's next? And I think this is where Peyton's great. He doesn't panic. He's got the best nerve of anyone I know in terms of managing things and handling emotions and freak out and pressure because he's done it a lot, right? And he's seen a lot in his life at this point.

So I think that's important in a building like that. So they look to him. He's not freaking out about it'll figure it out. That's not surprising to hear that that's the tone of what it feels like over there. I would just love to sit down and have someone articulate what the plan is because going into last year, you're the most aggressive team in the NFL in free agency. You show out all of these big money contracts. And then now we arrive a year later on the eve of free agency. And you're not close to contention. You have so many holes. You don't have a quarterback. You're potentially going to

trade pieces that you had. So you're taking a step back there. The wide receivers have been on the trade block perpetually for the last 18 months it feels like. So I just don't know what the path forward is and why it looks like that. Yeah. And I do think making some trades here, trying to improve their offense, they're just going to try different ways to get better quickly here, even if that means taking some hits in the future as they want to at least be a presentable unit here, knowing that you've got a very, very expensive head coach here running the show. Let's get to some other news that trickled out here over the last couple of days. What's the latest on Legerius Sneat? He was tagged by the chiefs early in the process, reportedly, they gave him permission to seek a trade and

always seem to make the most sense. They can get more for him than a third round compensatory pick a year from now if they wanted to deal him. So what does that market look like? And do you think that Legeriasi does get traded at the end of this? Yeah, I do think that he winds up getting traded. And I think the fact that we're seeing several teams already showing interest in this is based on the conversations I've been having over the last few days. And the way these deals usually come together, the agents working with the team. It's a good collaborative effort here to try to get something done, which pretty much tells you that that's why they're willing to do this because everyone, they're in on it.

And they're trying to get as much as they possibly can for him. So, you know, you have teams like Detroit, Minnesota, Indie, New England, as some of the teams that are very interested in bringing him in. Atlanta is another team. I know from a few conversations where he really wants to bring in a stud on defense. And I think this would be his guy if he could really pick anyone outside of Aaron Donald's, you know, to bring in that could really set the tone for the type of players he's looking for. So I believe his market is going to be really strong.

If you look at the free agent class of cornerbacks who were available, it's a lot of guys who had pretty rough ends recently, J.C. Jackson, etc. But even the guys who you might be a little bit interested in, they're all creeping toward 30. I mean, really, like, Chidobiae might be the youngest one of all the guys with a proven track record. And he's almost 29. Legerius, and he just turned 27. And when you consider the fact that he's the best corner in this market and the youngest, where if you did trade for him and gave him a four-year extension, you'd get age 27, 28, 29 seasons,

I think that's what leads to this endpoint where there's five, six, seven teams that say, fuck it. We will give up a two and pay him because that's our best avenue to a real difference maker at the position. And look, Spags is obviously an amazing coach. And, man, in my opinion, I just thought he got the best and most out of him for what he was doing. I mean, you could argue, Sneat kind of came out of nowhere.

This wasn't a hot name a few years ago. You know, this is someone- His role changed. You know, he was a slot guy for a couple years. And so to move into the outside role and to really be like a. dominant presence. This year was a new version of him. That's for sure. Yes. And it's helped him. So credit to him, credit to Spags, he's going to make a lot more money, I believe, by all the improvements in production he had as a Super Bowl champ.

The Lions, I want to, I'm trying to figure out where their extra picks are. So they have an extra third in this draft because of the T.J. Hawkinson trade. I believe that they gave away their four to Minnesota or something along those. Yes. So they, they swapped third and fourth round pick. So they have an extra third, but I'm wondering what the eventual price tag is. Do you have any sense of that? Like what a team would have to give up to get him?

A first for sure. Oh, interesting. Okay. That was shared. It's six teams. That's how you get there, right? Well, it's exactly how you get there. So,

which is why I, look, the chiefs understand his value and they really like him as a player, even just going back to before the Super Bowl, talking about Sneed and what he can do, but they also know the value they're going to be able to get for him. So it's really just going to be, as you kind of painted, the team that thinks that this is worth it at this point. And I have a feeling it's going to be a lot.

So I am curious to see how this will shake out and really what the offers are right now. I was told, though, from a source that's like in part of all this, that this is going to take more time than we expect. Like this isn't going to happen in the next few days. A lot of stuff needs to still get work. worked out. So I think this is one of those moves that we'll see probably after that rush next week of agency signings, even perhaps even that that week after for this to get done. I'd love to see him land to Detroit. They have the 29th overall pick. Are you going to get anything better than that,

even when you consider the contract that you have to give up for him? And I think the way they want to play defensively, that like a FU style of football that they're after over there, he just fits them. He fits them in so many different ways. I would just love that fit and have ended up working out. Yeah, and I will tell you in terms of just talking to a lot of teams that are involved here, the most common question that yet is, what do you, do you know what Detroit is willing to give? Like, everyone has their eye on Detroit knowing that this is perfect for the reasons you let out. Brett Veach has done a fantastic job, a fantastic job during his tenure as the chief's GM. But I would love if I had the job security and the I can just do whatever I want and take the long view,

time mode of running an NFL franchise. The fact that he could just go into this offseason and be like, yeah, I'm going to trade the All Pro Corner. Like, I'm going to trade him. We'll be fine. He could do that with Tyree Kill. There's so many different things that you can get away with because there's no blowback and because you know that everything else about your team is so rock solid that

you can be really, really patient and thoughtful with this kind of stuff. Not that many teams would be willing to do something like this, where this guy is coming off this year, you win the Super Bowl. And it's like, yeah, we'll trade him. We'll be fine. I saw him in Indy sitting with Andy Reid and their agent Bob Lamont and they're in discussions of contract extensions for both Andy Reid and Brett Beach at this moment. And I would love to know that number because you have to figure he, Veach especially is probably going to be the highest pay general manager in football for what he's been able to put together and figure out and really commit to being disciplined on some stuff,

especially when the panic was sitting in. I remember for the trade deadline hitting up a lot of people in Kansas City about what's the weapon, who are you going after? And they're like, we're good. Like what? So, I mean, they had a couple little feelers out. But at the end of the day, they rode with who they had. And it also, they also have Patrick. Yeah, that certainly helps when you're making these decisions. Speaking of the Kansas City Chiefs, what is the latest that you've heard about Chris Jones and how this might end up with Kansas City? Yeah, this is a good one because I do think, we all know what both parties want.

And, you know, from everything I gather, this is like commitment from the chiefs. They want to get this deal done, which is why the whole Sneed thing came together because they're committed to bringing Chris back. They've been exchanging, you know, different types of numbers over the last 24 hours from the last I checked on Wednesday afternoon. There is no deal just yet. But I do think this is one of those scenarios where it'll get worked out. Now, it's been sticky before.

Like, we obviously saw it last year. So I don't put it past the Katz brothers who are the agents of Chris Jones. They are a fun group. I can see them trying to turn it up and do something wild. But I can tell you, though, everything I hear from the chief side of this is just, they have a really good feeling that they're going to be able to get this over the finish line. Even the conversations about this, like, after the Super Bowl, and Nate and I were recapping the game.

If you look at it with the Chief's history and if you look at it, at the players they've developed at certain positions. Replicating Chris Jones's production, even as he gets toward 30, was always going to be more difficult within their specific ecosystem than finding another legurious need because they've done that consistently over the last three or four years. Chris Jones is just a harder piece to replicate. And that's why it always made the most sense. If you're going to have to pay one of them, pay Chris Jones, get something for a legarius need,

go back into the draft, you'll find another one. Maybe not, but that's their mindset. And guess where Chris Jones fits the best himself as well is Kansas City. I don't know if, as to use your word, the ecosystem of another team would fit him as well as you see how they use him and how that just matches up perfectly in Kansas City. I also think personality was. Those KC guys are allowed to be themselves down there. That is an Eddie Reed staple.

They're so fun. I know listeners probably don't care as much, but when we get to cover these teams, they all have different personalities. And look, when you win, you tend to be looser. But they're just, they're a really nice bunch of guys as well. And they're just, they have this energy all the time, win or loss. And I think that's important, right? Because I've been in a lot of losing locker rooms.

Well, not that many with Kansas City, but a good amount. And they're just, they're always the same. And they're just a good group. And I could see why they want to get this deal done and keep the band together and go for three. Even going back to before they were this machine, though. I remember sitting down and talking with Travis Kelsey in 2014 and talking about just how he was able to be in that building and really be himself and not shy away from that. And that was an Andy Reid thing going back a decade. So it certainly helps and is a little bit easier when you're winning a lot.

But I always think that's the tone that they've tried to create within that organization specifically. And I think that it's worked out pretty well for them. Getting to some of these other bigger name veterans, what do we think the market looks like for Sequan Barker, and some of these other big name running backs that after yesterday are all going to be allowed to hit the market, him, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard. So what do things look like for Sequant specifically and how might that trickle down? Yeah, the running back market is a little depressed. I mean, I feel bad saying that because we've been saying the depressed running back market for 15 years now, I feel like. But just for now, you have the most, I think the most talented group of running backs we've seen as free agents coming up here at the same time.

None of them getting tagged. It's undeniable, I think. I don't think it's ever been close since I started covering the league 10 years ago. Yeah. And my mom brain can't go back past 10 years. So, yeah, we'll just stick with this is the most talented group that's about, right? With that being said, it doesn't. And look, I do think it will prevent a complete fall off because look, the stock is down here in terms of the running back value.

I think this helps their cause, right? Because you have such a good group. But I still think it's looked at as two tiers, right? You have Josh Jacobs and Sequin Barkley at the top. on most teams boards, right? And then you got the Henry's, the Pollards. The Chandra Swift, but for the most part, those are the big games. That's a great one, right?

Exactly. They're in like that $6 million range. Now, this is what's going to be interesting, right? The Giants claim they still have interest in Saigon, right? Saquan wants to be in New York. Seekwon loves the New York Giants. He is the New York Giants. I live in Giants land.

It makes sense. If they were able to come up with a deal. I just don't believe the type of money that Saigon wants and maybe could even get in the, you know, in free agency is going to, he may be able to get a better payday if we were to leave New York. I don't know if New York is willing to come all the way up for him because we've seen it in the past. Joe Shane does not value the running back position. He would have never been in this position with Saquan if he did. And it's pretty well known how he sees it.

Now, that being said, there are teams who are in the market for running back like a Josh Jacobs, like a Sequin Barclay. And the first team that comes to mind for me would be the Houston, Texans. Yeah. Right. That is their missing piece. When you take a look at their offenses, they're trying to build around CJ Stroud. And I believe that Sequin at this point, outside of the Giants, can get a $10, $11 million a year. type contract if he was willing to leave New York.

So that was going to be my question, because going back to last summer, remember there was that whole thing with Jonathan Taylor, what is Jonathan Taylor worth? What are these guys at the top of the running back market, quote unquote, going to get? And I always felt like it was a non-starter for these guys to chase the McCaffrey number. That world no longer exists. And he is such a specific type of player. That just felt like it was a fool's errand even trying to get to that place if you were an agent. The number that I always thought made sense, and I said this to multiple GMs last summer, just

kind of kicking this idea around because just on like a philosophical level, I find it interesting. I kept looking at that Nick Chub contract, right? When he signed it in 2021, it was three for 36. I was like, all right, why wouldn't you just go to the natural markup of the Nick Chub deal? Doesn't that make the most sense for everybody if you're Jonathan Taylor's people, if you are running back in that vein? And that's exactly what happened. He got three years 42, so it's 14 a year, which is.

is the natural markup of the Chub contract. But Jonathan Taylor signed that when he was 24 years old. So I'm wondering if that sort of market exists for guys like Sequin or Josh Jacobs, or they are going to have to settle into a three years, 30 million with 18 million guaranteed sort of space. So where do you think it shakes out for those top guys? So I had a lot of people in Indy sharing with me because the running back market was discussed a lot with different people. was a big topic there that we should expect to see a lot of one-year deals on these running backs.

You know, Derek Henry is a great example. Okay. So you think of Derek Henry and he needs a very special type of offense and certain type of pieces around him to have success. So yeah, we all know the Derek Henry with the Titans tearing it up over the last few seasons. but I know that in terms of the rest of the, you know, teams outside of Tennessee specifically, they don't see him as the Derek Henry that once was, right? So it has to be a very specific type of offense for him to have success in. So, yeah, like back in the day, he'd definitely be a top guy.

But I believe he's going to fall more on that second tier. And of course, you have teams like the Baltimore Ravens who are interested in trading for him before the trade deadline, trying their shot and trying to get involved with him. the Miami Dolphins are team keeping an eye on him as well. So he's going to have a market. I just don't know if it's going to be the type of market he wants it to be. He's 30. He's 30 with an unbelievable amount of miles on him.

So even if he's been able to stave off that aging curve and the way that other running backs haven't necessarily, I mean, you're still playing with fire a little bit. That being said, I would love to see him in Baltimore. I would absolutely love to see him within that Ravens offense. And I know that everyone has made that connection because of the interest at the trade deadline. But that's another one where even if it's the obvious one, give me that all day. Correct. We're looking at the depressed market for running backs, which I think makes sense, given the landscape of the NFL.

Are there any other positions as we look toward free agency where you think the guys at those spots are going to be a little bit disappointed in what their markets look like? I think the safety position and the linebacker position are the two. I'd say if there was three to get, it would be all three. I'd say running backs, linebackers, and safeties are going to be. a more depressed market. And it's going to be apparent as soon as these contracts come out. We're going to see it. And you're just going to say, what happened?

It's just not the right time. And then, of course, you can always point to the draft as being always a reason for why we're seeing it shaped this way. I also think safety specifically, there's 10 guys that are going to hit free agency this year that are workable starters. There are so many guys available at that position that, and with Antoine Winfield, being franchised and no one at the top, top level of that market, I don't think there's anybody worth splurging for because you can sign Jordan Whitehead for $7 million a year where it ends up being. But there are a lot of those types of players available in this class specifically.

All right. So let's turn our eye to more general conversation here about this free agent market and about the teams who might be involved. Which teams, based on the conversations you've had over the last couple of days, do you think are going to be maybe more aggressive than people might think when the market? market opens next week. So this is interesting because when you take a look at how much money they have to spend in the free agency market, you immediately go, all right, well, the people that are going to spend the most have the most. And it doesn't always work that way. All right. So

you have teams like the Miami Dolphins. Okay. They don't have a lot of money to spend. In fact, they need to figure out a way to save money to get under the cap for free agency, right? Which means they're going to have to redo deals with guys already on their roster. But when you take a look at the holes that they have specifically on defense, this is a team that has to do something out of need and get smart and savvy with the deals that they already have on their book. So they're the first team that comes to mind. And the second, if we're going to talk about teams over the cap, we might as well

bring up the Saints. And their reasoning is a little different. Yes, they do need to find areas to improve and get better. But this is a coaching staff with a lot of pressure on them now, right? They were safe this year. A lot of people around the league didn't think that that would happen. This was going to be Dennis Allen's last year. It didn't go very well.

Well, they gave them another season here. So they are going to want to win now. And that usually motivates teams to start signing being free agents. The Dolphins specifically are currently $18 million over the cap. They have guys that they can restructure. but one of them is Tyree Kill, who's 30 years old. They could probably save about 17 million there. They can restructure Jalen Ramsey, who is also getting up there and is near 30.

They can restructure Bradley Chubb. So there are ways for them to get under, and there are entire sections of their roster right now that they need to replace. The entire interior of their offensive line is hitting free agency. You can argue that Liamikinberg was a starter for most of last season, but you got multiple starters along the offensive line. You still, I think, arguably have a need at receiver, at your third receiver. at your third receiver spot outside of those two big guys.

And with Christian Wilkins' likely hitting free agency, they need help on the interior of their defensive line. Xavier and Howard is gone now, so they need another corner. Cam Smith, they drafted in the second round. Does he step into that spot? So there's a chance that Miami just becomes one of those teams where even if it looks a little bit ugly this year, they just say, in for a penny, in for a pound.

Like, we'll move the money around. We've already decided that we're trying to win right now, and we're willing to pay whatever cost comes with that. Correct. And that's why I think it's almost a little unbelievable when you say it because it's like, well, they don't have the money. Well, you just kind of laid out how they could probably get some money available. To extension as well. If they gave him an extension, they can get that cap number down for this year specifically. So they've got some wiggle room. They do. And that's what they're telling agents around the league of like, hey, we're in it despite what it may look like.

And then you have teams on the other side of it that they actually have the money. and that's just not their style, right? We've seen it before. We're a team like Indy. Okay, we've never seen them get really aggressive in free agency. In fact, I feel like that's one of Chris Ballard's proud decisions that he has made since his time in Indy is just being that guy that kind of stays and stands pat works through the draft, works through trades, rather than overspend on the free. agents. And look, I'm going to say it a million times over the next week or so with you when we're talking for agency because every GM says it, you know, most players become free agents for a reason.

Yes. There's a reason why teams are not retaining them. There's, it's usually because they've fallen off or there or other reasons that we don't even know about. So India's always played it safe there just like the Bengals, right? That's another team that could use some improvements. I don't expect them, especially on defense. I don't expect them to jump in here and start spending all this cash, despite the fact that the salary cap, salary cap went up $30 million each team. I still don't even think that that's going to sway or change the approach that teams like Indy and Sinci are how they're going about their business. The Bengals have been more consistently aggressive over the last couple of years. They've essentially had one or two big ticket items for each of the last free agency contract.

But now it's a slightly different set of circumstances. If you let T. Higgins walk and you spend $25 million a year on Christian Wilkins, that's tough. So I think that things have shifted a little bit for them as they've had to start paying their own players where it's just a little bit of a different set of optics when you're spending outside the building. With the Colts.

No, I wanted to talk about the, go ahead, Colt. I wonder if there's something Loomin out there. I really do. I don't think they'd give up a one for Sneed just because they have the 15th overall pick. I think that would be a little bit rich. But I wonder if there's maybe one big ticket item that's Illumit out there

that they might be interested in. Just a hunch. I don't know if it ends up happening, but I think that they would be willing to open up the wallet this year in ways they maybe have it in the past. Well, they need to, though. I'm not telling Chris Baller how to do his job, right?

Because he's put together some pretty good teams over the years. But my thought is their offense still has to get better, right? They've got Anthony Richardson coming back off injury, which, by the way, all the intel out there in India about his progress, it just seems to be going really well. Like the concern level is not as bad as I think some had thought. And Chris Ballard even cheered publicly that they're going to approach this very conservatively. Right.

There's no reason to push this. They've had their, you know, I hate to use the word bad luck with the athlete that we're talking about with Andrew Luck, but they've experienced that already. So he's using that time with him to really just chill out and be like, okay, we're going to do everything we need to do to get you right and ready to go. But that being said, all right, so how are you planning? Right? So you have to at least approach this knowing that, you know, maybe you hit a snag with your quarterback after seeing all the injuries that we saw last year. So what does that mean for the offense? How are you to build this up? How you can be ready to go

by week one if there is an issue there? And I think that's obviously things that they're thinking about. I would not be surprised that they added another pass catcher somewhere along the way, whether that is a Brock Bowers in the middle of the first round, whether that's a receiver in the first two rounds. I don't know if they'll be aggressive to do that in the free agent market, just because there isn't anyone that moves the needle. If they see Michael Pittman is a high-end number two receiver or a 1B, there's no one available on the free agent market now that rises above that level that I think they would be worth spending on. The one other spot, though, that it seems like they've got some pieces, but they could use an upgrade is pass rusher. Whether that's with the 15th overall pick or if that's one of the high-end guys in free agency. So that would be the one spot where if the market ends up lining up a certain way,

I would not be surprised if they made a little bit of a splash is up front on defense. If they're willing to spend that money, right? Because the pass rushers that are on the market right now may be asking for numbers or looking for numbers, I'm not sure it's going to be comfortable with that. Just based on their history, just knowing the type of deals they like to do there and how much they're willing to spend. It's just going to depend on the player. I know you said that maybe some of those teams that had a lot of cash weren't necessarily the teams to watch next week. But I'm going to ask you anyway, which of those teams that are flushed with Capspace, the Titans, the Patriots, the Texans, teams at the top, Washington,

which of those teams do you think is going to be a little loose in the way that they throw money around when things get started? I'll start with the Tennessee Titans. They're going to be spending in free agency. They have a lot of needs. And they know it. They're pretty open about it. where they have to improve and get better, right? They've moved on from a lot of different guys.

Look, I know they're still in contact with Derek Henry since we just mentioned him. I don't see that reunion happening. I see Derek Henry moving on, but they're going to probably try to make an attempt there. But they have a lot where they need to improve. So the Titans are probably my number one in terms of just approaching this free agency

with teams that have money that are going to go after it and chase it. I believe that the commanders are also. another team while, you know, this is really Adam Peters's first shot here at the general manager position. And all you can do is really read the tea leaves of how we call his, I guess his bosses as superiors. We're doing it in San Francisco, right? And they build and they do invest in some players. So I know from talking to a lot of agents around the league, they're expecting Washington to be very busy. And the New England Patriots are in on a top receiver. They are going to try to bring someone in there to try to get weapons. And the hard part, I think for them right now is getting a lot of

these free agents to be good with a rookie quarterback coming in if they were to just go and stick with getting a quarterback in the draft. But they're certainly in the market to improve on offense. Yeah, they seem to be that team that if Calvin Ridley does end up hitting free agency where we just get shocked by the Calvin Ridley number because they just say, we need workable pieces. We're willing to pay him to be a number one. Maybe if that's not necessarily how he should be billed in 24, somebody is going to have a desperate enough need and enough needs where they say, we can't necessarily fill this through the draft that's going to throw out a number and amount of money that probably surprises some people.

Yeah, I think that we need to also probably keep an eye on Houston just from a standpoint of, I do think Houston's focus on bringing or on keeping their own guys. You know, they've been doing some of that this past week and they will continue to do so. But, you know, I obviously have my eye on them, you know, at the running back position. and also a pass rusher. I think that's another spot that they'd be willing to just kind of feel out the market to see what's available for them. If they move on from Jonathan Grenard and then they end up reallocating that money elsewhere, that'll be something I find interesting. Why did you feel like that was a better place to spend it?

If they're in on Christian Wilkins, why did you feel like that was the direction to go rather than retaining Grenard? That's one to watch. And Washington, I cannot wait to see what they do. just because I want a direction and a feel for what this regime is and how it sees itself, because right now we have zero data points. We have absolutely no idea how they view the roster, how they view their timeline, how they view certain positions. I mean, this is a completely blank slate with Adam Peters. So every time there's a new GM with all these resources, and I guess the same kind of goes for

Elliott Wolf and New England, we learn a lot about what they value and how they want to build from that first off season when they have all those resources. And I don't think it hurts to add that you also have sort of a potpourri of coaches here, right, from all different worlds, right? You got Love Kingsbury. You obviously have Dan Quinn who worked with Joe Witt in Dallas there on defense. You have Adam Peters who comes from a different world. So you have all these different ideas and thoughts, which sometimes is awesome and great.

And it sounds like Washington has been doing a really good job, or at least an aggressive job of their research and turning over every stone to find out as much information as they possibly can as they're trying to figure out who they are. But in terms of my patience, it's very, it's not very good. Like I need to figure out what Washington is going to look like. What are they? Who are they? And I think the moves they make in free agency at least is going to give us a nice little window to,

all right, this is what the, this is the commanders. sorry, we can see and we at least figure out what they're trying to build and be by the time the draft gets here. All those teams at the top, Washington, New England, Tennessee, Arizona. Arizona has all these resources this offseason. And we don't really know a lot about Moniasin for it because all he did last year was accumulate assets. The only thing they did last off season was draft high character guys, right? Like they're comfortable taking that swing on Paris Johnson because this is step one. let's get a guy who at least know is a good dude as our first draft pick here and we'll go from there.

But other than that, it was a lot of trading back and it was not a lot of aggressiveness in the free agent market. So now that they've established some roots, a foundation of who they are offensively, they've built a little bit of excitement. Now what is step two of that process look like? So this may be the only podcast in America where I'm very, very interested and excited about what the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals are going to do. But that's where I sit right now. my love for teams are like my children. I have to love them equally, even though inside I do have a favorite. But in this case, I don't.

All right. One more thing I wanted to hit here. We mentioned a couple names to keep an eye on, but I want to throw out a couple more just as a little chum in the water before we get to free agency here. Who are a couple players that you think will have a slightly bigger market than the general public might at this stage? I think we mentioned real quickly there, Christian Wilkins, that was a

name I was hearing in Indy. There are a lot of teams who are interested in his services and what he's able to do. So there was a thought out there that there was no way the dolphins were going to tag him and that, you know, he's still obviously fairly young. The price tag, I think is going to be the issue for a lot of teams because he's got to get a lot of money because of his ability. And, you know, going back to the phrase we've been using in the show of more. players hit free agency because they're not that good or because the team doesn't want to retain them for certain reasons. He's an exception. He's still a really good player and I'm almost certain that Miami would love to keep him. I can actually tell you that. I know that for a fact because I

had conversations with them yesterday. They want to keep them. They wanted to keep them. So why wouldn't they tag him then? That in their mind, they that is not from their salary standpoint, which is funny because that's what we were diving into before about how they're going to make this work. They didn't feel that they could afford them. Yeah, that makes sense. Because if you extend a guy, you can play with the money. You can spread it out a little bit. You can keep the cap hit low in year one.

But if you're going to tag him for $22 million, which is what it would have been, they probably wouldn't have been able to swing that with the way that their 20, 24 cap look specifically. So that does make sense. Yeah. So he's probably the name I heard the most in Indian terms of just interesting. parties. And I know this is dull and this is so freaking boring. But the backup quarterback market is shaped up to be way more interesting than it has in years past. Some of it due to the salary

cap increase, which is helping teams giving them a little bit more extra money to spend in that position when they normally wouldn't. And we all saw the results of teams that didn't do it last year. We don't need to go back down that road. But just in terms of what teams are willing to do, right? So you know you got Justin Fields still out, we'll call it on the market or available for trade. I don't really see that picking up any steam until that second wave as we were talking about before. But you have a lot of other guys there like the Jacoby Brissette's, the Garner Men's shoes, the James Winstons that are available that I know teams are trying to get that stuff done and lined up early. I think you're going to see way more quarterbacks go early this year than we've seen in years past knowing that teams just seem to be.

more focused on filling that spot now and not waiting and messing with it. All right. Well, we'll have plenty more time to dig into all of this next week when free agency actually begins. You're going to join us for one day of our free agency recaps, right? Isn't that the plan? Oh, yeah.

We say that now, but I'm sure it's going to turn into more. But, you know, if I'm not on the pod, make sure you're checking out my Twitter because I'm going to be busy. Check out Diana's Twitter. Check out everything we have going on The Athletic. If you have not subscribed to our new NFL newsletter, Scoop City, written by Jacob Robinson and Diana. Please go check that out.

Make sure that's hitting your inbox every single day, part of our wonderful collection of newsletters that we built up here at The Athletic. For now, though, that is all we've got. Nate and I will be back tomorrow. Doing a little bit more free agency preview. We're going to go position by position in the biggest names, best fits,

maybe some under the radar guys to pay attention to. But that's our last show before free agency kicks off on Monday. A reminder, live shows every day. day next Monday, recapping each day of free agency, starting on Monday going all the way through Friday. So please be on the lookout for those. For now, that is all we've got. Appreciate you guys listening.

We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.