The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Kyler Murray & Lamar Jackson 2022 offensive outlook, contract questions & more

Episode Date: June 16, 2022

What comes next for Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson? As the two remain at a crossroads with their franchises, Robert Mays and Nate Tice discuss the quarterbacks' offensive outlook for 2022. They examin...e the highs and lows, what can improve this season, the contract talks and much more.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today's Thursday, June 16th. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? Doing very well.
Starting point is 00:00:25 I think we were both in the same boat. We're trying to stop sweating from a recent, a recent, the workout to shower to doing the podcast sequence is always a nice, like, sweatbox for a little bit. My house is not equipped for 99 degree days, which is what we're dealing with. here in Chicago right now. So I've just been sweating constantly for the past like 48 hours. At least my air conditioning is working right now compared to the last heat wave that we had. So that is a slight improvement. It's never good when Chicago has the same temperature as Vegas. Like that's not what you want to see if you're a Midwest resident. No, it has not been fun. We planted a bunch of stuff this weekend. It's been fun trying to
Starting point is 00:01:03 keep it alive through this over the last couple days. It's always something. It's always something. It's my wife struggles. Speaking of June in Chicago, it's June and the NFL schedule as well. And we were thinking about we wanted to do over this stretch. And one of the ideas that you and I had been kicking around was about Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Funny enough, you wrote about both guys for the athletic. Synergy. As we were kind of kicking this idea around.
Starting point is 00:01:28 And I wanted to talk about both of them because I think that their franchises in some ways, the Cardinals and the Ravens, are kind of at a crossroads in a few different areas. they're going to have to decide very soon whether or not they're going to pay these guys. We can get into that. We can get into some of the particulars of that. My assumption is both of them will get paid sooner rather than later. You heard Cliff Kingsbury say yesterday that he's praying that Kyler's deal gets done before training camp starts. Not sure the cap guy or the contracts guy is thrilled with Cliff right now.
Starting point is 00:02:02 Not a good way to maintain public leverage. Anyway, I assume the Cardinals are trying to get this done if the coach is openly sent. that. Steem Kive has said multiple times that they're hoping to get it done this summer. The Lamar situation has always been a little bit strange. He's negotiating this on his own. Based on his success, winning an MVP award, feels like they probably would have gotten this done last summer. They still haven't. My assumption is they will get it done. But both of these guys have had really high highs. Obviously, we've seen an MVP award from Lamar Jackson, even in 2020. The Ravens passing offense was still pretty darn good. With the Cardinals, the highs have been half seasons long.
Starting point is 00:02:39 four or five weeks stretches where Kyla Murray looks like an MVP level player, which he did for the first half of last season, and then they inevitably decline. So I wanted to talk about those peaks and valleys what each of these guys can potentially do this year to avoid that backslide that we've seen from them, whether it's over multiple seasons or within a given season. And then what's next? What does the next phase of the offense and just the overall plan look like after each of these guys potentially gets paid and the team weighs how much to pay them whether or not to pay them
Starting point is 00:03:13 all of those considerations i think that these guys are in very similar spots and there's a lot of similar stuff to chew on with both of them yeah it's similar spots and both just such unique players exactly and that is what makes the arguments for and i guess against them i guess against paying them so i would say interesting to talk about fun to talk about because you can argue in so many different ways. But what's cool about these guys is that even if they did have their blemishes maybe last year or a little bit of fall off last year is we've seen the highs like you mentioned. Like Lamar's highs like not even just talking about coward, but Lamar's highs, I mean, breaking down the stats and having access to true media has made me turn me into a monster.
Starting point is 00:03:58 You're a monster now. I absolutely love it. Yeah, creating formulas in there. It's actually been a lot of fun. But, The, like, highest EPA per dropback since 2019. A lot of the stats I'll bring up today, and this is what I did for the article, just kind of like a disclaimer, is quarterback seasons with over 300 attempts, typically through 2019 for Lamar 2020s for Kyler, because Kyle was working season I threw out. Lamar has been starting full time since 2019.
Starting point is 00:04:25 But that MVP season, his EPA per dropback, was 0.34, which is the highest since 2019 for a single season. That's 0.06 better than Rogers in 2020. that's better than any Mahomes season since 2019. Like that high, we always have to keep into context, even just like a counting stat, like his TD percentage was like 9.0. Yeah, only three players since 1976 have correct 9% TD percentage for quarterback. Peyton Manning in 2004, which I don't know if you guys knows, was quite a year. Going back and looking at that 2004, Peyton Manning season is always like,
Starting point is 00:05:02 holy shit, you were good. 2004 was just a funnier in general. That was an awesome Colpepper year. It was a really fun season in the NFL. Yeah, Colpeper broke the total yards record. Yeah. And then Aaron Rogers in 2020 at 9.1%. Aaron Rogers in 2011 had 9%.
Starting point is 00:05:16 And there's Lamar Jackson, 2019 at 9%. It was a historical year as a thrower. And that doesn't even get into him as a runner, which is just dynamic. I mean, we all know this truly, truly all-time runner of the football at any position. And same with Kyler. We've seen these half seasons, the last two seasons where it's, man, we talk about creating and getting a bucket. Kyler's one of the best at doing that.
Starting point is 00:05:39 And it's just such a fun. It's interesting because he is so small out there, but then he plays such a big game. You know, he attacks down the field. He's running away from guys. He's willing to scramble up through the middle and then try and squirt out of bounds. Like that, those highs is that we always have to remember because there are some lows and there are some negatives.
Starting point is 00:05:59 And we really did get to see that really in the second half of last season for different reasons. I mean, but one kind of a common thing. theme with the Cardinals and the Ravens was injuries other than bird mascots. But it was it was was injuries. And that is something that we'll have to keep in in the back of your mind when we're talking about these guys in 2021. Let's start with Kyler because that's how my notes are structured.
Starting point is 00:06:20 Perfect. Alphabetical. Good. All right. You mentioned it. You split the season in two halves. Yeah. First half of the season through week nine, which is right before he got hurt.
Starting point is 00:06:31 Second in EPA per play. Matthew Stafford was the only one ahead of him over that stretch. Weeks 10 through 18, which does include him missing a few games, and also includes Hopkins being injured, which we'll get into. 18th in EPA pro points. It's a pretty big gap. So for the first half of the season, it looked like potentially the MVP of the league for the second half of the season,
Starting point is 00:06:48 middle of the road quarterback. Let's start with the good. Let's start with what the Cardinals' offense looked like for the first half of the season when he looked like, perhaps the best player in the NFL. If you were trying to just list off the hallmarks of what that offense was over that stretch of time, what would they be? Letting your best players make place.
Starting point is 00:07:10 And that is, it's football at simplest. We want to talk about design and, and I know I'll talk about cool design. Really, football comes down to what's my best one-on-one? What's my best matchup? Can we get that ball to that one-on-one? And for better, for worse, this is a good example of kind of like the strengths of this and the negatives of this is the Cardinals emphasize that. And Kyler especially emphasizes that.
Starting point is 00:07:34 He has a one-on-one with DeAndre Hopkins, and they like to get the three-by-one formation. So three guys to one-side, trips to one side, and ISO up the other guy. They go left and right. So Hopkins is almost 90-plus percent on the left side. Adrian Green is the outside receiver to the right side. They will take those one-on-ones. Kyler throwing deep balls. He's one of the best at throwing those deep balls.
Starting point is 00:07:55 Like that is what he does best, is attacking down the field along with running of the football. I want to say, yes, his EPA since 2020. EPA per attempts on 20 plus yard attempts, 10th just behind Patrick Mahomes. He is very good at this. So when they, especially when Hopkins was healthy because that's going to come to the negative of all this is when Hopkins was healthy, Kyle was EPA per dropback was as good as Aaron Rogers, who won the VP last year. When DeAndre Hopkins was out, that EPA per dropback was the same as Davis Mills.
Starting point is 00:08:29 That is drastic. And that really gets into what the negatives. I know we're talking about the positives, but the negatives too is that when you take one-on-ones, you have to have better players. And when your best player, your best weapon is out, and it's Antoine Wesley running those go-routes and stop routes on one-on-ones and Kyler's taking them, it looks a little lesser.
Starting point is 00:08:49 And I think we saw that in the second half of the year. I was shocked. I went back and we'll dig into some of the more numbers here. But there was a play, I think it was in week one, where Hopkins just ran a little curl and caught it. It was like an eight-yard completion. and he spins on a die, makes the DB miss and turns it into a 17-year-touchdown. That happened a lot in the first half of this season.
Starting point is 00:09:11 He's a hard tackle. He's a really hard. Underrated in that regard. He's much better after the catch than you might think because we think of him as just this spectacular catch guru, which he is. But he's able to make some stuff happen after the catch in a way that I think is underappreciated. So that happened a decent amount. And there are examples. The game I rewatched that really said this to me and really think it was a really
Starting point is 00:09:34 good reminder of this. When they do do some weird stuff, when they do have guys lined up in untraditional places for them, there was a play against the Rams where Hopkins was lined up on the right side instead of the left. They were in a heavy personnel package, so not their traditional 11 that we see them run a lot. And he just ran a corner route on a play action throw. That doesn't seem like that big of a wrinkle, but for them, that's a wrinkle. Yep. It's a huge completion and it's a chunk of play. Later in that game, they have eight, they're an empty. They have AJ Green lined up in a stack with the running back on the right side, and he's
Starting point is 00:10:09 technically the number two receiver. And he essentially bends his route outside before cutting it back in. And because of where he's lined up as the number two guy, he immediately has leverage on that outside corner and cover three. And it's a chunk play touchdown. And it's just a little tiny things. When you're just playing with these things in small ways, you can get those sort of place. They just don't do that very often. So often they're lined up in the. these static ways. And I think that's what's really frustrating is that when they do put little spins on it, it feels like they get really good results from it, but they just don't do it often enough. Yeah. And the heat maps is hilarious. If you look at DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green's heat
Starting point is 00:10:47 maps, it's just right on the left sideline and on the right side line for each guy. And I agree, if you and am writing for the athletic, because I have to use still shots for all 22, so I use a lot of NFL tweets. Welcome. Yes, that's the legality that I have to go through. So if anyone's wondering why you don't see a lot of film clips on there, that's why. But when I was, you know, searching through the NFL highlights from Kyler, you would see a touchdown of Christian Kirk where he's lined up as the right outside guy. You would see DeAndre Hopkins lined up in the left slot. So speaking to what you're saying is when they would put a little unusual, it was in the red zone or a third downplay where they had to adjust something. And it's like lean into that a little bit more on first and second down or not when it's in, we're not just a one off play.
Starting point is 00:11:31 do it every week, week in, week out. And this is where I have, you always want to put your players as a coach, as a play designer, you want to put your players in the best, you know, positions succeed. And AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins are two of the best outside kind of like iso ball guys. The vertical, vertical stemming routes, stops, goes, posts, comebacks, you know, stuff that just go straight ahead. DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green are 13th and 14th in targets and goes and posts from the outside. I know it sounds specific, but that kind of like, nimbus.
Starting point is 00:12:01 arrows down with the running. Hopkins has the second best EPA on those types of targets right behind Mike Williams. And since 2019, A.J. Green this past year, he was in the, he was 16th in the NFL on those on EPA per play. They're good at this. Like they're very good. This is this version of AJ Green. This is 2013 year old AJ Green. And then we're going to talk about that about 34 year old AJ Green coming back in 2022 and being like a main target guy for them. But it was like, yes, That's the strength of this offense. But then you get into Kyler's limitations off of that. He likes to sit those outside goes, those one-on-ones,
Starting point is 00:12:37 when those are taken away, when Antoine Wesley is running the go route, the stop route one-on-one, and Kyler has to read stuff out over the middle. They'll take the one-on-one route. They have a three-man combination of some shape or form that they'll run with the three-man side. Kyler's not very comfortable attacking that. If it's zone, he is. But if it's man coverage, he really struggled against that. He had the second fewest attempts over the middle against man coverage in 2021 since 20, since 2020.
Starting point is 00:13:03 So the last two years, three years, I should actually say. In 2020, he had the six views. He is not a guy that's going to attack over the middle of the field, especially against man coverage. He just doesn't see that. He doesn't see the guys coming. That's where the height comes into play. He also is, he was dynamic against blitzes. He was, you know, his 0.32 EPA per dropback with five or more pass rushers is this eighth since 2019.
Starting point is 00:13:25 Like he, I have all these stats from this article, guys. so I'm I'm spilling these all out. You guys are getting the full blunt of this. I am so sorry for all the listeners. We should never have given you access to true media. But it's so great because now I have eye tests and then I just get back it up. They're like a little slap some EPA on it. But you know, but this all matches, which you see, Kyler will attack you down the field.
Starting point is 00:13:47 But a lot of times when defenses adjust, that's why I think this has happened the last two seasons is the second half of the season. Defense is go, oh, this is what you guys are going to do. Okay, we'll take that away. Then we don't see that. next step from Cliff Gainsbury or Kyler. So it's kind of a column A, column B type of thing about where these struggles are coming from. What did you see there? What did defenses specifically start taking away that you feel like they struggle to adjust to?
Starting point is 00:14:10 They stopped blitzing. They started just rushing four. So and they were just sitting, they would run man coverage and they were like, okay, if Kyle wants to scramble, we'll let him scramble. But it really seemed to me that they started rushing for, just four pass rushers and making Kyle are be patient as opposed to I look at my one-on-one. The one-on-one's not there. And I have to read out the zone.
Starting point is 00:14:29 I think the Seahawks game in week 17 or week 18 was a great example of this. And Kyler would look at the 101, see Antoine Wesley out there and go, oh, shit. Now I got read out Ertz and Christian Kirk and what's going on right here. And then Kyle would scramble. And when Kyler gets banged up, you know, he's not, maybe not as willing to take those hits, maybe not as willing to take more of those scrambles. And so all these plays kind of became chaotic.
Starting point is 00:14:55 And I saw that kind of happened more and more. when they, I would say it was about the same number, about four pass rushers with and without Hopkins, but his EPA per drop back dropped from point one to negative point one. He, he like significantly got worse when defense is right. We're not going to attack you. We're going to make you be patient and we're not going to let you hit us over the top. So I see all these numbers kind of drop off. It was really what happened to a lot of quarterbacks of 2021 is defenses got patient against them.
Starting point is 00:15:21 And same thing happened to Kyle. They made him be patient. They made him read stuff out. They made him trust things on top. his pocket movement got a lot better. That's why he improved against zone, but he had a lot of weaknesses against man coverage and especially, and this makes sense,
Starting point is 00:15:35 without Dandre Hopkins. If you look at their numbers from the first half of last season, he was 12th in the NFL when team, NEPA pro dropback when teams rushed for. 12th. I mean, it's good. It's pretty good, but it's not the MVP that we saw.
Starting point is 00:15:51 He destroyed blitzes over the first half of the season. By far, the most effective quarterback in the NFL over the first half of last year when teams blitzed. So I went back and I watched most of those plays from the first five, six, seven weeks of the season. And what you see is, like the play I alluded to earlier with the Hopkins touchdown, where he turns it into a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:16:13 There is a play where he just throws a smoke to AJ Green and it turns into a 14-yard touchdown. Hopkins had another one of those where he just catches a now route and turns it into a touchdown. The huge Rondo Moore touchdown, I think it was against the Browns at 77-yard. he's just running around just running around and throwing the ball Rondale Moore had several huge plays in the first
Starting point is 00:16:34 month and a half of the season that were not within structure whatsoever so if you the numbers in terms of how far Kyle was throwing the ball down field against the Blitz in the first half of the season wasn't very far at all he had one of the lowest A-dots in the league against the Blitz guys are just making plays
Starting point is 00:16:50 and then they're sprinkling in one monster I'm going to run around for four seconds and then chuck the ball play every single game. That shit's not sustainable. No. It's not. The other guys that were near the top of the league, Mahomes, for example,
Starting point is 00:17:04 Mahomes has the quickest, I think outside of Ben Rathesberger last year, Mahomes had the quickest time to throw against the Blitz in the NFL. That's consistent. Like what Mahomes is doing against the Blitz is a process-based thing where you're torching people. Same goes from Matthew Stafford last year. There's no out of structure we're getting these crazy plays. Especially with Stafford.
Starting point is 00:17:25 Yeah. And those guys were from the gun to the end, the best guys in the league against the Blitz are in the top three. Kyler significantly fell off because I think a lot of the things that they were doing and a lot of the success they were having in that realm wasn't sustainable. And this goes back to a conversation we've had about the Cardinals for years. And when I went back to watch, I wanted it to be more than, oh, Kyle was just making plays or Hopkins just making stuff happen on the outside. And then you go back and watch it. And it's like, that's kind of what it is. I know.
Starting point is 00:17:59 And now you remember the source of the jokes. Like it's like, oh, yeah, this is why we made those jokes. And I want it to be more complicated than that. And it's really just not when you boil it down. No. In these moments where it's, they're unstable, their unstable environments are unstable situations where they were really, really good over the first half of the year. And some of that is based on skill set.
Starting point is 00:18:21 Right. If your players are better, you can make that. happen. You can create advantages. You can really hone in on that stuff and just hammer them over and over and over again. When one of those advantages is out for half of the season and the other one, your quarterback, whose success is at least somewhat predicated on his ability to extend plays is hampered and can't move around the same way, then your superpowers just get totally zapped and you look extremely human and extremely mortal because you don't have any other answers. And I think that's what's happened to them and what happened to them over the second half of last season.
Starting point is 00:18:58 Yeah. No, absolutely. And that's where some of the frustration comes with is that, and I even said it's an article where I was getting negative on Kyle or going like, hey, you got, hey, NFL quarterbacks have to make these throws. But then this is where it comes on to coaches. This is where it comes on the play design. Hey, we all know DeAndre Hopkins is not playing. Change something up.
Starting point is 00:19:17 Put A.J. Green on the left. Let him be a true X where he's the, he's always going to be the lone guy. or right, this lack of adjustment from them and a lack of, you could see Kyler go. It was really, I don't say fun, but it's interesting always to watch, like where you watch a game a month, game in September, game in October, game in November, December, maybe a playoff game. And watching Kyler go from, oh, wow, look at him bouncing in the pocket. You know, look at it. He's really trying to move in the pocket and adjust his arm angle to the playoff game against
Starting point is 00:19:46 the Rams or that Seahawks game where he's just right away going, oh, one's not open. Screw this. I'm going to go run around. Like he was trying to be the more true quarterback. I really want to say the first few weeks. He still had his creation plays like you said. But you could see him just hitting that escape button as quick as possible. And I think it's because he just was like, screw this.
Starting point is 00:20:07 I got nobody else open. Like this is all the numbers. It was drastic with and without DeAndre Hopkins. Like even this is where this kind of speaks to like Cliff Kingsbury is that their amount of early play action percentage dropped by. 15% of their play calls. They were running at about, you know, five, six, seven times a game, and they were only running once or twice with DeAndre Hopkins out. How are you making your offense harder without your best receiver in there?
Starting point is 00:20:34 Like, shouldn't you make this easier for your quarterback and your whole offense because they had the O line injuries as well? So just speak to me about a lack of adjustments throughout the season, which has happened now more than one season with the Cardinals. The O line thing compounds the problem. Because if he, especially in the back half of the season when they were a little bit dinged up. When you don't have the easy answer immediately and you have to go back to that three receiver side and start to read stuff out, but you also can't protect, then you're in
Starting point is 00:21:02 really big trouble because you don't have the instant answer and your offensive line is bad. When I went back and watched the Rams playoff game, it was watching the Rams week four game and watching the Rams playoff game and the distance between what you see in both of those games. It's drastic. It's kind of wild to watch back to back like I did. When you watch that game, he's under siege. He didn't play well, but he's short-circuiting because they just have nothing there. The right-tax get buried. Yes.
Starting point is 00:21:31 I mean, the right side of the offensive line, they put him in tons of stunts. They consistently made it hard on them. And they just had no answers. That's not going to change. That's the problem is that with the Ravens, we'll get to this. I think protection is a huge part of why the Ravens started to struggle last year, especially against man coverage. Because when he's waiting for stuff to come open,
Starting point is 00:21:55 you couldn't wait for it to come open last year because of how bad they were up front, just how dinged up they were. They made significant changes to that group. The Cardinals did not. So this issue that you have, when I don't have the immediate answer, can I read stuff out and trust just the structure of the play,
Starting point is 00:22:12 it's harder to rely on that when you don't have faith in your protection and you don't have faith in your ability to have time to read that stuff out. So it's kind of a dower way to get into this question. But if you were trying to fix some of these things for 2022 and you were trying to figure out just how this can look better and what needs to improve, where would you start? Get Kyler on the move a little bit more. Help out that offense align, not just naked and bootlegs, but sprint outs.
Starting point is 00:22:39 Just a simple sprint out. Let your offense align and let Kyler, let him take a breather, a mental breather. and let him, you know, have, I mentioned before is Kyler with the height. He's just like Russ, Russell Wilson, where anything past five yards over the middle of field, they have trouble seeing. And Kyler, it's eye test and statistical test. He is not attacking past five yards. He's gotten a lot better on the five yards and inside because he can change his arm slots,
Starting point is 00:23:06 better than Russ can. But get him on the move so he can just half field read it or if he doesn't like anything, can scramble with it. Just get him moving. Get a little more of that changing the launch point is. what they like to say and making it easier on the offensive line as well. I would say that would help. I would also say change up your fucking look every once in a while. Stop going three by one every snap and running the same five plays over and over. Snag, mesh, you know, vertical by vertical routes,
Starting point is 00:23:35 way too many screens. They have a good run game, which has actually been an interesting thing. I would say an efficient run game, having Kyler helps, but lean into that more, lean into the play action looks off of that more. Tie everything in together. To me, it seems like Cliff and the Cardinal staff like their ball plays. Like they're like, that's a cool play. Let's run it. As opposed to tying all their ball plays together.
Starting point is 00:23:59 And so it has some, you know, like merging, some synergy with everything. And I think that's what would really help them. You know, just really just throwing a little, little changeups as opposed to, I mean, the Bears game was a good example. Every third down, they ran mesh, which worked, which worked against the Bears. But as soon as you're trying to do that against maybe a competitive team, like the ramps, they're on your shit. So you've got to change up these looks. You have to adjust week and week out.
Starting point is 00:24:24 And I think Kyler has to continue what he was trying to improve upon that first half of the year, where it's hang in the pocket. I know the offensive line is leaky, but trust yourself. Try to get the two before you start scrambling around. And also, you know, try and work onto those seam balls. Like start honing everything inside with where you're trying to attack down the field. Because if you look at their heat maps, it's go balls, screens. That is the offense right now. And Kyle,
Starting point is 00:24:48 run around, do something funny. So they need to just become more of a true offense, a true quarterback play. Snag is a three-man concept where there's a corner route and then there's a little sit route from an outside receiver who sits down, not over the middle of the field, it's like just to one side. Inside hitch.
Starting point is 00:25:06 That is the throw he makes. He throws that snag all of the time. All the time. The little inside hitch he throws all of the time. It's really one of the only throws he makes when he's reading out that three receipts. that three receiver side. He does it so often. It's really funny that you said that because I noticed it over and over again.
Starting point is 00:25:22 They love running it. And so he goes, one-on-one, snag. It hits the snag right away. Yep, he loves throwing that. I've been talking to a lot of coaches over the last few days for something I potentially am going to write, which is a fun surprise. And one of the things that's kept coming up is just about how you can't predict where receivers are going to line up anymore against really good offenses.
Starting point is 00:25:44 There's just no way to do it. Guys are going to move around. Yep. And so you need a plan defensively for figuring out where a team's best receiver is going to be. You can't just leave a Jalen Ramsey on the outside if you're going to play a team with the Devante Adams, and he's playing in the slot 38% of the time. Most good teams do that. You know, think about where Cooper Cup lines up.
Starting point is 00:26:05 Justin Jefferson spends a third of his snaps in the slot. AJ Brown spends a third of his snaps in the slot. The Cardinals don't do that. At all. you're making it too easy on really, really good defensive teams and defensive coaches. Teams are too good now. Defensive coaches are too smart now. If you're going to give them the answers to the test before it starts,
Starting point is 00:26:25 you're just really relying on your talent. And every once in a while, this team has enough talent at the receiving spots and a quarterback for it to win out. But you're making the game harder on yourself. It's just an uphill climb that you don't need to do. And that Rams game, again, just keep coming back to it, those little tiny wrinkles, they had a play where they, it was a three by one where Edmonds worked back outside. It was like an out and up against Reader from the backfield. And it was a beautiful throw.
Starting point is 00:26:54 It was a beautiful throw that he ultimately dropped. But Kyler can make those throws. Like if you give him a mildly tweaked one-on-one opportunity, he's one of the best pure throwers in the NFL. You don't have to give him a huge window. You don't have to give him a ton of daylight. just put a tiny twist on something to make it a little bit less predictable. And if it's a 50-50 ball, he's probably going to put it in a better spot than most
Starting point is 00:27:21 quarterbacks on the planet. But they just don't happen often enough. They're saying our guys are better than yours. And that's really, really not going to work that much in the long run. Yeah. There's a clip against the Cowboys. He throws a deep, they run a dagger, which is a seam with a deep dig behind it. And I think it was a third down or a second and long.
Starting point is 00:27:40 And the Cowboys run Tampa 2. The dagger is a great Tampa 2-beater because the Tampa player on defense has to run vertical with the vertical route and then you run a dig behind it. The Tampa players run down the middle of the field. Yes. So you're going to a ton of depth there. So the digger will theoretically come in shallow of that. And it was Michael Parsons, I think, was the Tampa player. And he has no idea what he's doing as a coverage guy.
Starting point is 00:27:59 So he's just running blonde. Like, yeah. But all of a sudden there comes AJ Green, dig right behind it. Kowie steps up the pocket and throws it and converts it. It's beautiful. It's right on time. it's in there. Like it's it's in his realm.
Starting point is 00:28:14 Like he can do this. So this is the I'll say this. Is it can or won't think is it? Do they do not do it because he can't do it or they won't call it? And to me it seems like they just won't call it. And maybe it's something they see in practice, but it's it's in there. And so I just think they just have to change up how they attack these defenses. This is my last stat.
Starting point is 00:28:35 This is the last stat I'll bring up. Just EPA throwing to the left. This is with DeAndre Hopkins, 0.68, throwing to the left. Super high up there. That is ridiculous number. 0.68 without DeAndre Hopkins, negative 0.1, throwing to the left, those four games without, without DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that you can't just throw to one side of the field because you refuse to change up where you're attacking defenses, that doesn't work anymore. The only offense that I could think of back my mind that kept their receivers in the same spots every time was the freaking 2000s Colts with Peyton Manning.
Starting point is 00:29:09 Because Peyton wanted everything to look the same. He's a freaking machine. Like every ball was perfect. Every ball came out on time. Every ball went to the right spot. Yeah, you can do that when you have two all pro receivers, a great tight end, Dallas Clark, and one of the best quarterbacks of all time. With a robot.
Starting point is 00:29:25 You have a quarterback robot. You can play the game that way. The ball goes to the same spot every single time or right spot every single time. When you have Kyler, who's, you know, ad libin a little bit, you're going to have injuries in the NFL, make it hard on the defense. That scrub that they just signed. that's playing corner for them. Make it hard.
Starting point is 00:29:41 Make him think the nickel that's played 20 snaps in his NFL career. Make him think rather than just go, okay, they're three by one. I know where Christian Kirk's going to be. He's no longer there, but I'm talking about 20, 21. Christian Kirk's going to be right here in the slot every single time. I know that tight ends can be right next to him. I know this every single snap. You're not mentally straining them at all.
Starting point is 00:29:58 And that's where the frustrations come from with this offense. How do you think Marquis Brown fits into what we're talking about right now? Terribly, if I'm being honest. with Hopkins is missing the first six games because the PED suspension. Brown is probably going to line up on the left where Hopkins is if they don't change anything. And then when Hopkins comes back, he's going to line up in the slot. Kyler likes his one-on-one opportunities. He likes letting his guys post up.
Starting point is 00:30:27 He likes them being basically low post players in the NBA, just drop step and dunk on guys. I don't know if you know this, but Marquis Brown's pretty small. Brown's best snaps are working from the slot. I think he should be used how he's used to Oklahoma. Slot gets his free releases, can attack vertically. The way they use Christian Kirk. Exactly. Well, you got six games where he's going to be on the left side.
Starting point is 00:30:49 They'll probably have Rondale Moore in the slot. But then also, how they use Christian Kirk. Christian Kirk was very good at settling into spaces, kind of being a big body. I want to call Christian Kirk a power slot. I'll call more of a medium slot. But working those intermediate areas. but Brown is just smaller. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:31:09 I think I think Howard does better with big targets because he likes to give contested ball situations. So it's a weird pairing for me. They got to make sure that he goes on the move. I did some breakdowns and I know I said that was my last stat. But the one with like with Marquis Brown, it's like he those stats that I brought up about AJ Green and DeAndre Hopkins being so good on those outside going post routes.
Starting point is 00:31:32 Hollywood ran about the same amount. But he was like, I think he won't. want to say that he was average an EPA per target on those routes below average. He was like barely even, yeah, he was point zero. But he was zero. That was his EPA on those types of routes. So it's not like he's coming in and going to bring this dynamic threat right away that we think he had his best season in 1,000 yards, but that was more just a target
Starting point is 00:31:55 chair. So I don't know, long way, long winded way of saying I, it's whatever. I think it'll help Kyler be happy, but I don't know. Hollywood's going to be a weird, weird fit for them other than being a speed guy or a speed guy. So thinking about what comes next, when I went back and watched, or before I watched, before I went back and started digging through this stuff, I was ready to have a conversation about whether it would be smart for the Cardinals to give Kiwa Murray a contract. It's probably going to be in the $50 million a year range. Now that that number exists, these guys that are up for these
Starting point is 00:32:29 deals are probably going to be getting contracts that are right in that range because of what Rogers said. Even if it's 45 in the Josh Allen range, it doesn't really match. It doesn't really matter. Five million bucks here who gives a shit. After watching him, there is no ambiguity to me. He's 100% worth it. His highs and what he can do, you just don't find guys like that on walking around. He is so, so talented.
Starting point is 00:32:54 And just the ball placement on some of those holy shit type plays, there aren't that many guys that can play the position like he can. But now if you do that, and you give him that contract, which I assume they're going to, DeAndre Hopkins is set to make $31 million next year at age 31. Oh, my God. DJ Humphreys, their left tackle is getting free agency next year. They don't really have a team.
Starting point is 00:33:17 No. So now you just have Kyler making this exorbitant amount of money, and you're the most expensive players on your team are Kyleor Murray, 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins, Buda Baker, who's great. That's totally fine. James Connor is set to make $10 million. Zach Ertz is making $13 million. that that's and then marquis brown is making 13 million next year
Starting point is 00:33:38 the same amount as the tag that's a tight end tag yeah that so that's your team he's irts is not good anymore by the way against man he's he's he's brutal he can't 29th in the league last year i think i was against man coverage and epaid per dropback 29th in the league it's yeah with earth's ertz urts doesn't beat man that's an issue too that that leads into i know it it's hard because it's like i i agree with you i even in my article I said, I know I've been negative in this article. Kyler is good. Like, don't give you wrong.
Starting point is 00:34:10 Kyler is like, you win with like, this guy wins you games. And we saw him truly win these games. The offense aligned. Their first pick in this draft was in the second round. And that was another receiving tight end. Like a guy that's basically going to be an earth's replacement, which didn't make sense to me. It was, uh, it's a very frustrating team.
Starting point is 00:34:28 It's a team that I can understand why Kyler is getting frustrated because I think he sometimes he looks around. He's like, I got 34-year-old AJ Green is going to be my number one receiver for six weeks. Like, that's not really a winning formula. Pretty much every single major addition that they've made over the last 14 months, 15 months, going back to free agency last year, last March, have been guys in their 30s, J.J. Watt, Rodney Hudson, AJ Green. And that's fine if you're trying to finish something off.
Starting point is 00:35:01 And it's like, all right, this is it. And I assume that's where they thought they were. I don't think that's where they think. I don't think that's where they are. I think they're kind of starting over with Kyler as the centerpiece now, but you just don't have many other guys that are in step with him as young ascending players. They don't really have any. It's just such a strange hodgepodge of a team.
Starting point is 00:35:25 So I remember we were trying to list off the blue chip guys? We were talking about it. It was like, I don't think how many on the offense that we named outside? The offense is, there is none. I mean, they're, it's Kyle. They've committed to, they committed to Ertz. They committed to James Connor. And it's such a strange team.
Starting point is 00:35:42 I just really don't know what they're going to do. It just feels like they're going to have Kyle were making all that money next year and kind of maybe going to be in rebuilding mode in terms of the roster. I think they'll win enough games where Cliff maybe, probably keeps his job this year. But the roster construction, it feels like they're closer to the beginning than the end. And now you're going to have a quarterback on his second. contract. It's very strange order of operations, even if I think they have to do it. Yeah. And I mean, they gave Kime and Cliff extensions too. So I mean, that's what it's, it really does. It seems like
Starting point is 00:36:14 they're back in 2019 when they took Kauer number one overall. But now Kauer is going to be paid, paid what, $35 million more than he was as a rookie, like $40 million more than he was as a rookie. And that's, that's three, four starters worth of money. Yeah, that is, that's what happens when you draft linebackers two years in a row and you draft a receiving tight end the second round and you never draft offense alignment for whatever reason. Yeah, it's building a fantasy team, fantasy team with 30 and over filler players. The youngest, they have one guy, I believe, on their offensive line slated to start along their offensive line under the age of 28. One. It's just with Will Hernandez, who they signed for a million dollars in free agency this year is 26 years old.
Starting point is 00:37:00 DJ Humphreys will be 29 by the time the season is. Every other guy, Justin Pugh is 31. Roddy Hudson's getting old. Calvin Beecham is in his 30s. There aren't ascending young players. And Rondo Morris, I mean, they took in the second round last year. And what's his role going to be? Right.
Starting point is 00:37:14 They're using him as like a checkdown guy, which was fun. That was one of the fun things I didn't like about this offense was they used Rondea Moore as a chip checkdown guy instead of like a big tight end. That was one tweak I did like. What a weird, weird team. Speaking of weird offenses, let's get to Lamar and the Ravens. Just let's trace what the trajectory has been over the last few years. You alluded to it at the beginning of the show.
Starting point is 00:37:41 2019, the Ravens are the most efficient at passing offense in the league by a mile. Oh, yeah. By a mile. Okay. 2020, 11th. Any API per drop back? Good. They're a good offense.
Starting point is 00:37:54 That's plenty good enough for you to win. 18th in 2021. It wasn't terrible. there isn't this cratering, but it's definitely a downward trajectory that is concerning. I want to get into maybe some of the causes of that and some things that you've noticed over time that may be contributing to why that's the direction things are headed. But let's start with the good. You know, when this offense was really rolling, you know, for times in 2020, even they were pretty good over the first half of last year.
Starting point is 00:38:25 Yeah. I'm pretty sure he was, you know, 10th in EPA per dropback over the first half of last. season and it looked like he was really making strides as a passer when things are going right for this team what do you think really stands out about lamar as a passer as a pat just oh my god one one one thing with lamar his arm strength is excellent like he is he's like effortless oh my god that ball flies out of his hand it explodes out of his hand it really really does it's cool it's really cool when he drives on throws even when he's thrown a deep ball like he'll be flat footed and i think of walsh like 65 yards it looks fake it really does
Starting point is 00:39:00 This offense, it's, it was a, it was a double down or a confirmation how much it runs, it goes through the run game. And that is including their past game. But when it's, when it's cooking, it is, it's extremely hard to stop. All the motions, the run game, Lamar as a runner, Lamar keeping the ball, keeping, you know, they keep defense as honest. That is where the strength of this offense comes from. They make the defenses have to play their rules.
Starting point is 00:39:30 NFL defenders will play the rules, but they'll go rogue. They'll go rogue because they're freaking good players. But that's what the Ravens will punish. And that's what they do the best. The thing is, and you're talking about where things went well, that Colts game is one of the best QB performances you'll ever watch from 2021. Lamar versus the Colts. I know the Colts were playing like their A string DBs by the end of the game. But it's a, when I want to watch an NFL player take over a game, that was Lamar in that game.
Starting point is 00:39:58 But the thing is, when you look at the whole season, how much just dropped off. I know you want me to talk about the positives, but shining on the negatives kind of leads to the positives, I guess. But their play action stuff is great when everybody's healthy. This team, no team lost more games or starters starts, just the games lost from football outsiders in their whole database than the Ravens did in 2021. That's what you always have to remember with this team. And some of the blemishes came through the run game because they lost their first three straight. their first through third string running backs to the season. You know, Ronnie Stanley was banged up throughout the year.
Starting point is 00:40:34 They're starring Andrew Villanueva, just banged up offensive line. They reconfigured that. But there are still times where Lamar is a thrower when he is, he's best on crossing and overrouts, when guys are on the move and he has Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews was a phenom last year. They have a great chemistry together. So getting those guys on the move, you can really, they can tack down the field and then use Lamar as a de facto checkdown.
Starting point is 00:40:57 One little tweak, and I tweeted this, was I noticed that when they just do a straight drop back with Amar, they don't even have the running back checkdown over the ball anymore. They just have him block. So he'll read the play out. And then he literally is his own checkdown. Then he goes, I don't like it. And then he already has like the running back already seven years upfield like as a fullback for him, which is kind of cool.
Starting point is 00:41:17 Like that's tweaking and adjusting your offense to your player's strengths. So those are the good. I'm holding off on the bad because there was a lot of bad. And that's going to be more of some schematic breakdown as well. So let's get to the bad because I do think that it's all connected because those crossing routes that you mentioned, those are unavailable to them at times last year for a variety of reasons. And I think that's when you can see stuff start to deteriorate. We'll get to the run percentage and everything else. But when things started to, again, it erode a little bit.
Starting point is 00:41:46 What do you think were the signs of that in your mind? Yeah. Well, it was good. When Lamar's best year was 2019, when he was an empty, no one has generated more EPA of EPA. formation or out of empty formations the Lamar in 2019 64.7 and the next highest was Deshaun Watson in 2020 just under 40. So he was not just better than everybody else out of empty. He was significantly better because what they would do is a tacked down the field and like I said before, use Lamar as his legs as his check down. In 2021, that EPA generated was 5.5. That's
Starting point is 00:42:21 41st out of 87 qualifying quarterbacks. When they got to empty, which is about they run about 20% every single year. Teams started blitzing the shit out of them. And the highlight or low light of that was that Miami Dolphins game on Thursday night. But the cracks in the seam, splits in the seam started to come up against the Bengals a couple of weeks before. And this is a game I highlighted in my article. They would get into empty.
Starting point is 00:42:46 And just because of protection rules, the defense would get a free runner off the edge. And that's fine sometimes because then Lamar would make the guy miss to become almost like an option play, either throw it or make the guy miss. but teams got smart. They got patient against it. And they're making Lamar operate on time.
Starting point is 00:43:02 And they're taking away all the hot throws. Like the Bengals were dropping guys under the hot lanes. So they took away that first answer that's a typical offense. And Lamar was getting stuck. Like that was a huge weapon for them that turned into a negative, really, for them, especially in that Dolphins game, which was almost embarrassing. Every time they went empty, the dolphins went, okay, here's cover zero. Good luck.
Starting point is 00:43:22 We'll take it. Because the Ravens just refused to throw deep out of it because they couldn't protect it. They didn't trust the guys to get opened down the field. So that was a huge blemish. The average, like the league average to getting pressured out to empty is 31%. The Marr got pressured almost half of his empty stamps, almost half. So that means one sixth of their plays, because if they run it, you know, 50% of the time or 20% of the time, they're getting a pressure, which is not good. That's not how you want to operate your offense.
Starting point is 00:43:48 You want your quarterback to hang in there and be able to operate. So that was the one thing. The other thing was man coverages was there was so much more aggressive against them. Lamar is never going to be a timing thrower. But when you have injuries, lack of chemistry with guys, they would also, the Ravens, for whatever reason, they're running a lot of reed routes, which I'll get to in a sec.
Starting point is 00:44:07 But against man coverage, Lamar is never a timing thrower where he goes, one, two, three, falls out. He bounces a lot. He's late and he overcomes it with arm strength. That can work against a crosser or a guy on the move because you can throw it late, you can throw it out there.
Starting point is 00:44:22 But when you're trying to run true one-on-one routes, like little outbreakers from the slot, that thing has to be out on time. Otherwise, the defender recovers. And Lamar, his man stats just dropped off a cliff. Like he was, no one had a worse EPA per draft back against man coverage than Lamar in 2021. Like, period, since 2019.
Starting point is 00:44:41 Just period. He's 87th of 87 quarterbacks. So that is a huge, huge problem. If teams are just going to go, we're going to blitzing and run man coverage and you can't beat us, even with Lamar Jackson running around. That is where a lot of the negatives came. and that came from schematic design and Lamar's trust in the schematic design that Greg Roman was running. I was fascinated looking at some of the numbers.
Starting point is 00:45:05 We're talking about he's not an anticipatory thrower. He's not a really a timing thrower. By far the worst mark in the league throws faster than 2.75 seconds against man coverage last year. Just terrible. Every time I try to get the ball out quickly against those sorts of looks, guys aren't getting open because he has no receivers, all that stuff. It was awful. When he'd have a little bit more time, it was fine. but he didn't have that much more time because
Starting point is 00:45:27 offensive line couldn't block. So it all starts to compound when you are a quarterback that needs a little bit. You need to see those crossers come open and they don't have time to come open. So it all started to fall apart. He was the second best quarterback in the league efficiency-wise in 2019 and 2020 against man. My numbers that I was looking at, Zach Wilson was the only quarterback who was worse last year. Okay.
Starting point is 00:45:49 That's it. Just Zach Wilson. And it's a huge drop-off. And the other thing, team just became unafraid. I think that was a huge transition last year is that teams were unafraid of running man coverage and teams were unafraid of blitzing. No quarterback in the NFL was blitzed more often last year
Starting point is 00:46:05 that had at least 250 attempts than Lamar Jackson. And the playbook in previous years would have been, you can't really run man coverage, you can't really blitz because then they'll start to gas you. And now teams just aren't afraid of that anymore. And because he was so bad at it, they started leaning into it even more and more,
Starting point is 00:46:22 and they just had absolutely no answer. So now what happens? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's all the coaches. Well, that's, I'm genuinely asking. What do you think has to happen now for them to kind of come out of this funk this year? I have to get the run game going again, which I know will come with health.
Starting point is 00:46:40 And why I say that is because of play action numbers. And they're like, because of the repercussions of having a lesser run game and the play action coming off of that. And I know you can get an argument that you don't have to have a good run game to have a good play action game. it helps though it helps have a truly dynamic run game like the ravens do because those numbers like you just said too I'm glad you brought it up man coverage two man blitzes that's what offense or defense coordiners are terrified of is quarterback tucking and running because all the defenders have their backs turned yada yada lamar had he had half the amount of rushes over 10 yards they did in 2019 2019 he has 48 rushes over 10 yards it's 2021, you only at 24.
Starting point is 00:47:23 And some of that comes, when you can't protect, you can't get routes down the field. And if routes are down the field, defenders are down the field. It's just physics. And the quarterback has more room to operate. When he's looking to scramble earlier quicker because the pressure's getting there quicker, the defenders aren't deeper. He can't have, he doesn't have as much room to operate in as a scrambler. So again, this is a repercussion.
Starting point is 00:47:47 So getting the play action game again, where you can have that heavy, heavy play action, your protection, really create a pocket for Lamar and get the routes down the field with overroutes and posts and stuff on the move so he can see it and then scramble and use his legs as a checkdown. That is, I think, is going to help them so much. And that, I think it's going to come a lot from having guys like J.K. Dobbins back, having an offensive line healthy and improving with guys like Linderbaum as a first round pick. That'll help them a lot. I really do think that. They're getting, getting Ronnie Stanley back to play left tackle.
Starting point is 00:48:21 Huge. signing Morgan Moses. They signed Juan James last year. He's on this team. I don't know what they expect from him, but if he's their backup right tackle, it's not a terrible situation to be in. Drop Linderbaum in there.
Starting point is 00:48:31 Kevin Zitler is still here. They have a decent amount of players. They've also got a couple older guys on their offensive line with Moses and Zitler. The difference is when all of these guys are healthy, they're good. Good. This offensive line is good when it's all assembled.
Starting point is 00:48:44 And you still have, Ronnie Stanley's only 27. You just drafted a guy in the first round who's going to be your starting center. There's enough young ascending. players on this offense where it's easier to get excited about them. And there are elements of this where in the unstable environments, like third down last year, I think Lamar was 12th, the APA per plan first and second down last year, and like 24th on third down. That's probably going to come back to Earth a little bit.
Starting point is 00:49:09 Yeah. Where Kyler was so good in those situations for a good chunk of last season. I think that's, the Ravens are going to kind of come back to a level in those situations. And now you have the guys coming back health-wise. it just feels like when the Ravens settle, they're going to settle as still a really good passing offense, even if we have concerns about what the structure of it might look like. Absolutely. That's, I'm negative on Greg Roman and everything, but you watch it and you're like, I can see what you're trying to do here. I can see what you're trying to attack.
Starting point is 00:49:38 And I think some of it, I think less is more is going to really help them. I think Greg Roman went nuts last year. Someone tweeted the other day his playbook from San Fran, him and Harbaugh, and he had like 800. pages of passing concepts or something like a 400 stupid amount which is I think is stupid you don't need that you you need a good significant amount of plays but not that that is just kind of showing off going like we're all these ball plays like a run that's old school west coast thinking and I think when you have injuries to receivers and tight ends and and they were trying to do reading routes where they're trying to find space and you have guys running in the same exact
Starting point is 00:50:15 spot which is if you watch it I know it sounds like I'm making it sound like every play It'd be once a series where and that's where that comes into Lamar trusting it. But the thing is, the highs have been there. We've seen this offense operate well. There's groundwork to build off of with this offense. I think they just got ahead of themselves plus the injuries. So it's a double factor of like just a bad situation because I think just like you said, if it's just law of averages that they don't get hurt as much,
Starting point is 00:50:45 that everybody develops how they should develop. Like I think they're just, we're going to reach more about that 2020 level. maybe not 2019, but that 2020 level as opposed to 2021 level for this Ravens offense. But if they're the 10th best passing offense in the league and their running game is good again and their defense is as good as we might expect it to be, that's a potential contending team. Which is all in the realm of possibilities. That's not like some outlandish thoughts. And I'm with you at because we have so much evidence that says your running game doesn't have to be good and you don't need to run the ball all the time for your play action game to work.
Starting point is 00:51:17 But there is a case where their play action game was bad in the second half of last season. Bad. Actively bad compared to be really, really good over the last couple years. And it wasn't even they were really, really good over 2019 and 2020. They just did it so much that they generated excess value from it. And they started doing it less. I mean, I think they were early down play action percentage drop at like 15 percentage points in 2021 from what it was in 2019 and 2020 combined.
Starting point is 00:51:46 and they were number one in the week. And so when you start to remove the jango pieces from what the offense is, even if on a general level, rushing success and rushing volume doesn't necessarily lead to play action efficiency, it just feels like you're taking out the essence of what the offense was supposed to be and then everything else starts to crumble around it. That's what it felt like to me last year. It's not a, I don't want to say crutch, but I'm not saying crutch in a bad way, but it's like that's something they can lean on as an offense.
Starting point is 00:52:15 It's like, okay, hey, this game playing he played didn't work for us. But hey, let's just get to our play action game because we know Lamar's comfortable with that. We can protect it up. But when you take that away and you are maybe not the best drop back designer in the world, that's going to be really hard on your entire offense. The stat that was just stark to me. And I know I've just been stat boy this entire episode. But EPA versus five plus pass rushers.
Starting point is 00:52:41 He, 2019 and beyond, it's Lamar was fifth back. and the four seasons ahead of them are Stafford last year and three Patrick Mahom seasons. So pretty freaking good. 2021, he was 76th out of 87 teams against pressure against blitzes. That is a philosophical changes from how defenses attack them. And I think they just lost that confidence. Would you want to hold the gun in these situations? And I felt like a lot of the times the Ravens were like guessing.
Starting point is 00:53:09 They're like, I think we can attack you this way. I think this is how we come after you as opposed to dictating the game, the pace, kind of how the tempo of the game goes. So hopefully, you know, Stella and Greg Roman can find their groove back, you know. Are you worried about, it's not even are you worried because I think it's, we all are worried. What do you think they have to do to overcome or account for the lack of talent they're going to have a receiver? Like, what do you think is the best answer for that? Well, lean on Mark Andrews a little bit.
Starting point is 00:53:40 They have to, just how we bash the Cardinals for not varying up their looks, they have to vary up their looks and get the guys in the best spots. They have to make sure these receivers, or the receivers, not just with their talent, matches what Lamar likes to throw. No more square peg round hole situations like they did with Hollywood Brown running him like on, you know, post up routes on the outside, running deep digs on the outside. Get these guys in the proper spots. This is why I like Rashad Bateman, because I think he can work inside and out. but get these guys on the move to unlock Lamar so these guys can be in best spots. Create yards after the catch. Lamar's not the greatest quick game thrower.
Starting point is 00:54:17 He's a really good intermediate thrower. So get guys on those types of routes. I think a very touchdown to check down type of offense will really help these guys. You look at the moves they made this offseason. Nick Boyle is coming back. They drafted two tight ends in the fourth round. I don't think that was necessarily the plan. Eric Tacosta came out after the draft and said,
Starting point is 00:54:39 we probably would have taken a receiver if it presented itself that way. But the way that things have unfolded, even if they add a veteran receiver, the way that the roster is structured, I think naturally points back to them adopting a style and an approach on offense that is conducive to success. Even if it's accidental that the team ended up this way, I do think it, by definition,
Starting point is 00:55:01 brings them back to a version of themselves that we want to see. It's like I would line up with a full. or two tight ends and just play action the shit out of people and you have a somewhat bigger body receiver in bateman you got a fast guy in duverne and that's fine like that is the structure of the offense and you live with the running game and whatever you can do to compliment that and i think that's okay even if it feels like they're regressing a little bit back to what they were you don't need to be different just for the sake of being different right was working was working really well that's what i i feel like they got too cute like i know the injuries
Starting point is 00:55:34 happened. But I felt like they were like, oh, this is the next step for us. And really it's like, no, play the hits. Play the hits. Remember we talk about play the hits. And for them, like you brought it up, two tight ends on the field or a fullback on the field. Like it really helps because the defense has to declare what they're worried about stopping. And if you have a great run game, I bet you they want another linebacker on the field if you're in 12 personnel. So if they have another linebacker in the field, they're in base, that's going to make the throwing look so much better and so much space, better space. Defenses can't bring a ton of. of blitzes, or they're not as exotic with their blitzes, out base defenses, as opposed
Starting point is 00:56:07 they are in sub, nickel and dime. So that is just like you said, they might have stumbled in to getting back to their roots, which is a good thing. Looking at the contract side of this, I think, again, it's a no-brainer that they're better off with him even paying $45, $50 million a year based on what he can give them and what the alternatives might be able to, especially when you've structured your offense and your roster in such a specific way around him. I mean, the cat's kind of out of the bag there. There's really no putting it back. And that's okay.
Starting point is 00:56:37 This version of what they are, in my opinion, is okay. They can endure a pretty big contract for Lamar Jackson. They have $40 million in cap space. They're slated to have next year. They had all those picks this year. They're consistently trying to add, like, young ascending players to their roster. I don't even think it's a question. I think they should make it happen as soon as they can,
Starting point is 00:56:57 and they'll be able to move forward with that deal and still be pretty competitive fairly often. He's a unique player, but he's a unique player that wins you games. And it's not a unique player at tight end or receiver. He's not, well, Mar just because he can run doesn't mean he's not a, he's not a good thrower. He's a good thrower of the football. He's unique as a thrower, but it's a unique you kind of want. You want a big play specialist as a thrower. You know, that's kind of what you're going for in the quarterback position. But I agree. He's going to have that unique play style. It's always going to be worrisome about the injuries, but I think he has gotten smarter about avoiding the hits. I know he got banged up last year, but he is pretty good. I have compared him to Wayne Gretzky
Starting point is 00:57:37 at how he can kind of both of these guys, Kyle and Lamar are really good at just, Kyler does the drop, the drop slide, which is so cool to watch. I don't know how it must be nice to be a good athlete. And Lamar knows it would take you 20 seconds to get down there. I hear my knees popping. And Lamar like kind of has that way of making himself skinny. So, but he's worth every dime, every penny you can pay him. He is a true game changer at this position. He's unique, but if you're going to build around, you want a unique talent at quarterback at least
Starting point is 00:58:09 because that's the position that's going to win you games and he can win you games. Like, I mean, just watch that Colts game. All right. That is all we got for today. We'll be back tomorrow with Deontay. We're going to talk about some lessons that we learned, watching some of the best defenses in the league last year.
Starting point is 00:58:26 We did a similar show last year. I thought, I absolutely loved it. I got a ton out of it doing the research. So we're going to run that back with Deonté tomorrow. Very much looking forward to that. Quick bit of news. We are hiring an executive producer for the athletic football show. If you are someone with experience producing a national show of any kind,
Starting point is 00:58:48 you can check out the job posting on my Twitter. We would love to hear from you. We have a really fun team over here. And I'm very excited to add to that team as we move in. into year three of the show. So check that out if that applies to you or someone you know. We'll be back tomorrow. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice.
Starting point is 00:59:06 I would very much appreciate that. Please subscribe to the athletic.com slash football show where you can read Nate's pieces on both Lamar Jackson. And Kyle and Murray highly encourage you to grab a subscription if you do not have one. If you did any of these stats in written form as opposed to me verbally puttering it up, there you go. A few of these are in there. but I try to drop in a few more around here. They're available to you there. We'll be back tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:59:29 Talk to you guys then. This was the Athletic Football Show.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.