The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, and the biggest dominoes of 2023 free agency

Episode Date: March 8, 2023

Well, that was quite the franchise tag deadline day, wasn't it? What happens now that the Ravens placed the non-exclusive tag on Lamar Jackson? The Giants appear set to run it back with Daniel Jones for at least two more seasons. Does that make sense? Are Aaron Rodgers and the Jets pot-committed to one another? Robert Mays and Nate Tice answer those questions and follow the falling dominoes on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeToday's show is brought to you by...Atlassian: For projects impossible alone, visit www.atlassian.comPhilo: Sign up today at philo.tv and use promo code MAYS to get 50% off your first month1:40 Ravens place non-exclusive tag on Lamar Jackson27:47 Daniel Jones, Giants agree to long-term deal44:57 Aaron Rodgers and the Jets: A match made...just because?49:42 The running back market53:27 The offensive tackle market Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. Nate, how you doing, buddy? Doing well. I'm actually doing great because the news broke before we do the podcast.

And I am like very excited. Everything's cleaned up. There's no like, don't really have to worry about some dot, dot, dot, dots that could answer the next day as the podcast is coming out. So I'm doing fantastic. The NFL doesn't sleep. Neither does. athletic football show. So here we are. Ain't that the truth? We were going to do a different idea

today and then 25 things happened that just shattered the NFL news cycle. So that's what we're going to do today. We're going to talk about the dominoes that have started falling for free agency and just for the offseason in general. And let's start with the biggest domino and one that kind of seemed like we had an inkling was coming with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens based on reports from, you know, give him credit. Jeremy Fowler at ESPN, I think it was the first place I saw this last week saying that they might give him the non-exclusive tag just because it would put the ball in other teams' courts. And they weren't scared about what that might lead to.

Albert Breer from our Sports Illustrated talked about it a little bit again today. And then it happened. The Ravens put the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, meaning the teams are now free to negotiate with Lamar Jackson. The Ravens can match whatever offer he's given. If they choose not to, they will receive first round picks in 2020. and 2024. Here we fucking go.

Yeah. That's a domino right there. I, to me, this really seems like the Ravens just going like, okay, we're,

okay, all right, Lamar, we did what we could. We threw out the offers that we could. Lamar is always, always have to remember this. Not that I'm like breaking news.

Everyone knows this. Lamar represents himself and as an agent. So that is all these negotiations, everything that Lamar, everything, I'm sorry, that the Ravens say and how they feel. and maybe reservations they have with giving guaranteed money, et cetera, et cetera.

They have to say to Lamar's face. There is no middleman. There is no, this is the human element of these negotiations. This is why agents are good. This is, yes. I understand. Seriously, though. When people, it's, the dynamics and the massaging and the back and forth and not having

to talk about money with your bosses and not having the bad feelings go back and forth, there's value in that. There's real value in that. Having a human meat shield is really nice. sometimes. Exactly what it is. And that's what you have to remember. So that's why I think when there's these number differences, I'm sure that's happened between Lamar and Brass with the Ravens, it's through Lamar. It's to Lamar's face. It's coming off a practice field. Let's talk for a half hour, et cetera, et cetera. So now you get to this point. I think the Ravens, why it's the non-exclusive

tag, it makes sense. They said, this is what we're going to offer you. Go find yourself a market. Well, hey, this is what we can do. This, we're telling you the truth or, you know, or as much truth as we want to tell you. And okay, go, go handle it yourself. So I think that's what they're throwing their hands up. But this is just, it's fascinating. This is like exciting as a, again, as a neutral fan, as someone that observes the league. This is just an unprecedented situation, it feels like. And it just is really, really interesting to see how this can unfold and what market does get presented to Lamar, if there is one. The Ravens throughout this process have made it clear from the time that Steve Bishotti came out at last year's owners meetings and said, essentially go to

hell to the brows for what they did with Sean Watson. Yep. He said it immediately. And they have drawn a line in the sand and that they are not going to give Omar a fully guaranteed contract. They've made that clear with things they've leaked and the fact that we don't have a resolution on this heading to franchise tag day. Now, another team, if you want to, can potentially try to give him a fully guaranteed

contract. And it seems like the Ravens aren't willing to go to that place. And if they aren't and another team is, then we could see a 26-year-old. old former MVP change teams for the price of two first round picks and a fully guaranteed contract. I think that's the other part of this is that a lot of the other deals that even guys like Russell Wilson have signed and obviously Deshaun Watson cases and outwire. But a lot of these guys who have been acquired on these big quarterback deals, Matthew

Stafford, Russell Wilson, it doesn't come with a fully guaranteed deal with $250 million guaranteed. So it's a lot to give up other than the Nashan Watson situation, which was a perfect storm of I have a no trade clause, all these different things that were lined up. We would never see anything like this, where you have a guy that could be this level player that's available at this stage of his career. It's remarkable. I have no idea how it's going to play out.

Yeah. And I mean, just think about what gets traded for the idea of players, the RG3 trades, the Tray Lance trade, Carson Wentz trade, Jared Gough trade, not when they're in the NFL, when they were prospects, what could potentially happen in this year's draft, as you're hoping as the Chicago Bears hold the number one pick. But you see what gets traded for the idea of what these players are. Lamar has proven himself as a quarterback in the NFL as a dynamic, one of the greatest weapons in the NFL. Whatever you want to say, it's him as a throwing ability. But as far as him as a runner, it's unbelievable.

And also, like you said, his age is ridiculous. He's not 30. You know, it's not 29. It's not 31, 26, and he's already won MVP. It's, I mean, again, I'm going to use the word. It's fascinating because yes, Lamar is a one-of-one type or there's more guys getting to his type of player, but he truly is as a runner is ridiculous. And as a thrower, he is a unique thrower as far as he pushes the ball and throws intermediate.

Some of the easy stuff doesn't come easy for him as far as throwing underneath. But, man, it's just a player that's a true, true tier setting needle mover. This is a guy that lifts up his teammates, even in bad circumstances. We've seen what he can do with Ravens having up and down offense alignment and weapons the past couple of years. And at times, him just take over games. So, yeah, the market's going to be crazy. And like you said, the guaranteed stuff is that's what's going to come down to it, obviously, but also just I think that's where the Ravens are trying to say is like, hey, we're trying to be fair with you.

But you can go see what your actual market is. But they're only the two first rounders coming back. That's what's interesting to me as well, because I feel like an open. trade market, it was going to be different. But I don't know. I just, I'm all over the place because this is how this feels, this situation feels. There's so many variables that are getting thrown into here. And now you also have teams saying, yeah, we're already out of the market, which is even more interesting because some of the supposed landing spots of how now kind of already be seeing, getting blown up, at least through the rumor mill, at least. I was very excited about

the idea of him going to the Falcons on a football level. I said, I made that clear at every turn over the last few weeks as we were talking about this, because I didn't know how the Falcons felt about him. Coming away from the combine, independent of Diana Rossini's report today that they are out, and Scott Baer, who works for the Atlanta Falcons media arm, tweeted and reported the same thing today, independent of that, when we were going to do the show before that had been reported, I came away from the combine not thinking that the Falcons were going to chase Lamar. I think that they're happy with Desmond Ritter, they're okay with the timeline that they're on, and the discussion, and I don't know if this is exactly it, but the discussion they're likely having internally is the

same that every team has to have right now. Are we willing to give up all of this for this guy? Because it's not either or. You're not giving up a bunch of picks and getting a quarterback on a rookie contract. You're not trading up in the draft and getting a quarterback on a rookie contract. You're giving up multiple first-round picks and you are potentially having to give out a fully guaranteed deal to a guy has been hurt the last couple years. So that is the discussion that you're having.

If you're Atlanta, if you're Carolina right now, okay, if you're Carolina, You're looking at the potential avenues you have up the draft where you're likely going to have to trade away a future first round pick next year and maybe even more to go up to four or whatever to get C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson on a rookie deal. So you are paying $50 million a year potentially and fully guaranteed money for the certainty of what Lamar Jackson is. And that is what teams are going to have to decide. Are we willing to pay that sort of tax and create that little financial flexibility for our. ourselves with the rest of our roster to pay for what we think we know about the player that Lamar Jackson is. It's a fascinating discussion. It is. You cross the Rubicon. As soon as you make that trade, this is it. This is who you are. I'm hitting the timer and this is it. This is the path we're on.

And that's why if you're the first year of a regime like the Panthers are, I think, oh, man, I just don't know if we want to lock ourselves into this. So that's, that's now my question, putting you on the spot. Who do you think makes the most sense? Because outside of Atlanta, I have a difficult time figuring out like, oh yeah, definitely team X, definitely team Y. There isn't a big list where it's readily apparent for me that they're the team that would be interested in doing this. The only one, and this is more just like any curiosity thing, I don't have no rumors of this, nothing. It's the Raiders. Just because of they're kind of more veteran, Raiders are whatever to me. I don't know what they want to be.

They just tag Josh Jacobs. Of course, they traded for Devante Adams, but they have so many holes on that roster. That's another thing, too, speaking with the Falcons, I know Falcons fans are really like, really burn it down because it's just, I know they had this idea in their head, not that there's any rumors from any of the Falcon's side

that Lamar was a target, but the Falcons have a lot of holes. They have a lot of holes on defense. They've asked answers to find on the offensive line. They still need to find more weapons, like even though they've hit on Kyle Pitts and Drake London, Tyler Arriger and Arthur Smith is a fantastic offensive play caller. That team has a ton of holes.

So like really, to me, I agree with you. I don't know what seats are available for Lamar and what the mindset of each of these teams are. You can say the Texans with their cap space, but the Texans have, they have the 78 through 80 rating Madden roster. They have so many holes. They want to use their picks. And I think with their timeline as well, with Domeko Ryan's going down there, I think they want to do it. Hey, we're starting at ground zero right now. I just think.

There's no question about what the Texans. can do this offseason. They can pick a quarterback. If they like multiple of the quarterback, if they like more than one of the quarterbacks, they know they're coming away with one of the two quarterbacks in this draft. And they're the first rounder in this draft. It's like, they're set to just go on down the path that they want to go down. So that's why I don't think them. The Raiders is the only interesting team to me. But I don't even think they have the cash flow for it. The cash flow would be a question, right? To Sean Reed had a nice tweet about this. And I was like, oh, that's a great call about the escrow and all that stuff. I'm not going to get into it. But that's, that's, we know

there's an escrow in the NFL with a guaranteed money. You have to put a certain percentage of it into extra escrow when you give that contract out. You can get around that with contracts, don't have a ton of guarantees immediately at signing. You know, they're like the Mahomes contract is a good example of that where the rolling, the guarantees are rolling. So it's, you don't have to put it in there immediately. With this, if it's fully guaranteed, you got to, you got to have that cash. It's a lot of liquidity on hand. Mark Davis had to make a move for a reason to Las Vegas because there wasn't a lot of cash

or there was some cash flow issues when they were living in Oakland. So just going through all the teams right now. Okay. Dallas, no, Chicago. I don't think so. I think they're ready to keep Justin Fields.

They've already said that. Arizona, no. Bengals. What about the Colts? That was another one too. Their roster's not that bad. I know they have old line stuff too,

but they also, you got a new player caller that's very creative. So let's do it. Let's do this. Okay, let's do it this way. The Colts are at four. How many mock drafts have you seen where the Colts have to trade a future first round pick to move out from four to one? Plus other picks.

Yes. You're halfway there. Right. Right? So you are halfway there if you choose to make that move. And the Colts have, after they move on from Mount Ryan, looks like $29 million in cap space. They have some other moves they can easily make to free up some room. Very fungible.

So they're a team that, it's not. not the first team that comes to mind, but again, if you're trying to figure out all the different versions of it's like, oh, if we have to move up for a guy that we don't know about anyway, are we willing to do that? Same on a football level for the Raiders, the cash part of it could be a different consideration. Commanders? I just, I don't think they're, I don't think they're going to do it. I know. They're just trying to get up. The Jets, the Jets in a world where they miss out on Rogers would be one that potentially makes sense to me where we have so few avenues.

is like we just got to try to do something. And they've got a lot of guys on rookie deals could they potentially make it happen. But there aren't that many teams. There's not. Where it's like, oh yeah, they have the motivation and the resources and the financial capabilities to make this work. Timeline, timeline, timeline.

The Brown's doing the Deshaun Watson made sense because they were always, you know, they had offense, all the stuff built up and all that. But like timeline that you have to think of what as soon as you trade for Lamar, there's your window. Like there it is. And also you're not getting first round picks to build around, like, at least the next two. Like that's, that's the thing. Whoever's making this move from Amar is like that clock starts right away.

So you have to think of these team situations that these teams are in, obviously, but just have to emphasize that. Man, it's so interesting. It is interesting. I think the Redmond. The Colts one is. They're one of the few teams where I do think everything lines up. The lack of potential suitors, if there are only three or four teams, and maybe that's enough to drive the price up.

But if it is only a couple teams, that's the bet that the Ravens are making right now. The Ravens are making a bet that you're going to go out, you're going to find a colder market than you think you're going to find. And you're going to come back to us. You're going to realize that this is where you belong. That's the bet. That's the risk you run, though,

because it only takes one team to be like, you know what? We're in. There's so many board games that have this mechanic that's just like this. And I love this. Just blind betting. it's the best. Just finding markets, is that exactly what we're going to go down? So I'm loving this.

I think that they're, I could understand the team looking at this entire landscape and saying, this just doesn't happen. Yeah. Even if you have reservations about his health or what he can do in a different style of offense or how his game is going to age compared to other quarterbacks where, you know, if you are, if you're signing a guy to a five-year deal normally, it's two, we're going to talk about Daniel Jones in a second. It's two, three years and you're out. If you give a guy a fully guaranteed deal in the range of $50 million a year, it's a long, long term commitment. That's part of the

other thing I'm wondering about. What matters to him the most? Does it matter that it's a fully guaranteed deal or does it matter that the guarantees total are the highest of all time? If you came in and you said to him, all right, we will give you a three year $150 million guaranteed deal. And you the double dip before you're 30. But the other part of that is, if you do it that way, you lose flexibility in how you can move the money around. There's just no way. And that's not going to have those two first rounders next two years.

I'm saying a team that did trade for him and gave them that. That's the other component of that too. So they're locked into what they have, basically. And that's the problem is that if you're a team and you say, all right, we just don't want to put guarantees in a year four or five, we'll offer him a three-year deal. But if it's a three-year, $150 million contract, there's nowhere to move the money. I mean, theoretically, you can put some void years on there if you wanted to give him a huge signing bonus. Try to keep those cap numbers low.

But that's the benefit of having these longer term quarterback contracts. Beyond the Mahomes deal, what the Allen deal is for the bills where there's so many different ways that they can move it around and borrow from the contract. I guarantee you that's what the Bengals are going to try to do with Burrow. That's what the charges are going to try to do with Herbert, where, all right, let's get a six-year deal on here. so we can make it look like whatever it wants to look like. If you go back over the last three or four years, the highest cap pits in the NFL typically are quarterbacks on short-term contracts. Kirk Cousins is always up there.

Ryan Tannahill has been up there. Dak on his contract because it's only a four-year deal because there aren't just many places, there aren't that many places to move the money because you don't want to borrow from the future because these are guys you're not sure you want to commit to. So quarterbacks on short-term deals, you're always thinking about the next deal, which is part of the problem. And there just isn't a lot to borrow from so you don't have wiggle room in any given season. I'm so interested in what the conversations look like. Because, again, if you just don't want to do it into year four and year five in the guarantees,

do you want to do a shorter-term deal? But the lack of flexibility, the shorter-term deal gives you, is that a problem? And we just have no idea where Lamar's head is at, whether it's full. fully guaranteed the step you need to take, or is it more than that? Because nothing is coming out from his camp to tell us what the actual demand sound like. Because he's the camp. Yes. I'm sure he has other family and friends around him, but he's the camp.

No, and I think that's such a great point to make, too, is you brought up Mahomes and Josh Allen, when we talk about the elite of the elite, those guys are pretty easy to commit to for the next decade that you, okay, yeah, the things are only going to be great. So we're taking from the bank of Mahomes or the, the bank of Josh Allen to make the flexibility. So that's a great point. And as much as I love Lamar, you have to be realistic. We just did a whole free agency show that came out, you know, that we did yesterday,

that we talked about guys injured before. Don't think that that's going to change. Like just that's what you always have to keep in mind with that. And if you're paying a fully guaranteed money to the most important position in all of sports and he's hurt. And then also, you're done. You're done. It's over.

Yeah. It's the classic line. We don't practice. fucked, you know, like that's, you don't, you don't build a team around that. And, but if you're giving all your resources to it and he's only playing 10, 11 games for you, man, that, that's a hard, that's just a really, that's another bet that a team would have to make. So that's what these are all the variables that go into this. That's why it's not just like, hey, pay Lamar, whatever he wants. He's a unique type of quarterback. He's a slightly underrated

as a thrower, but he does have issues, but his play style leads to injuries. It is what it is. It's already happening. I don't even think it's a play style thing. I think. he is a slight man. He is smaller than most quarterbacks are. He is, he's, he came into the league at like 210 at 6-2.

I think he put on a little bit of weight last year to try to hold up against some of those injuries. But naturally, he's just not a big guy. And I think that's the bigger concern than even play style concerns. To me,

it's about injuries leading to a lack of explosiveness that affects his running, not that running gets him hurt. But it's like, what happened to Russ. I mean, Russ is way older and is in the mid-30s now, but that's what happened to Russ. Russ's running component went way downhill the last couple of years, and you see when you take away that weapon, it matters. That is what makes them those players,

as much as talented they are at throwing them all. You always have to keep the, being a runner is what makes them so valuable. That's what a lot of these guys right now. No, but it's, no, that's, you brought up the way thing, but that's also a thing I always, this is why I was down on Zach Wilson when he came into the league. Sub 2-10 guys, there's only been three successful ones in the NFL, like historical examples. Vic Lamar and Mark Bulder was the other sub-2-10 guys because sub-2-10 guys get hurt. It's just, I know it's not-pounding. Even if it's in the pocket, you're still going to take a pounding.

QB hits add up. Everyone looks at sack numbers. It's the hits that add-up. Taking 22, even if you get sacked twice, but if you get hit, you're still going to hit a dozen times, those dozen times hurt. Taking sneaks, running out. If you're scrambling and you take some shots, I always have compared Lamar to Wayne Gretzky, the fact that he can kind of slide around those hits, but it doesn't matter. They'll still add up. So, yeah, no, it's just always always have to take that in account. But the sub two-tenth thing is very, very important to keep in mind.

And if I'm Lamar, if I'm arguing for why I'm worth this and why whatever relative struggles happened over the last couple of years aren't indicative of who I can be, I'm pointing to the fact that they put me in too small of a box. The offense that we were running, we had no receivers. We had no developed passing game. You give me an actual NFL offense. That's why I won him in Atlanta so bad. Because it's so perfect. Because everything lines up where it's like, all right, we could see a different version of this guy than we've seen really since 2019 when he won the MVP. And that's what I would be saying if I were Lamar.

It's not, well, there's concerns that I have to be in this hyper-specific sort of offense and that's why you shouldn't bet on me. No, that's wrong. I've been in this type of offense before. I played it in college. You should give me more and you'll get more out of me. If I'm Lamar's camp, that's what I'm saying to these teams. But I guarantee you that the Ravens are hoping that teams look at it and say, we don't think we can go down that road because it's too specific of a road.

Right. And Todd Muckin's sitting there going like, all right, guys, let's figure this out. I didn't leave Georgia for not Lamar. So that's now the question, okay? Let's say he goes. Yeah. What the hell do the Ravens do? Call Jimmy G.

Because that's where you're at now. Because if you're going to call Lamar's bluff and somebody else is going to throw their chips into the middle, I'm bad, I'll play poker. But if somebody else is going to throw their chips in here and it's out of your hands and you do have to move on, you get those two first round picks, but are you now in the quarterback market in a couple months? How much due diligence have you been doing about the quarterbacks? Probably a lot because you knew this eventuality might be possible. But what does that mean for the 2023 Ravens?

who have, I think, a pretty ready-made roster. Are we happy about that because it puts a young quarterback and a better chance to succeed than teams that often have multiple first-round picks or in the quarterback market? It's just a version of the Ravens that is really hard to imagine because we haven't had to imagine it in a long time. That's such a great point. Say, like in this hypothetical, the Colts do make an offer and Ravens declined. They get the two first-rounders. Now they have pick four.

It's like, oh, that's a whole other discussion. right there. And does that make you comfortable about it? Right. And if it's, if it's a team with a top five pick, are you more willing to be like, you know what, we're good? Yeah. Because you have your off ramp. And so I think that those are the things that the Ravens are going to have to be thinking about as they decide whether or not they want to match whatever offer comes to the table here. Man, this is awesome. Sorry. It's just, I mean, it's unlike anything I've ever. I mean, I can't remember anything like this since I've been covering the league because this isn't true free agency.

see, right? But no, it kind of is. I mean, teams can negotiate with him. Yes. Yeah. Even if he's on the tag. Tampering period applies to him now. I mean, this is real. Like, a team can negotiate with him. We can, we can have, I mean, it's just, again, I've never seen anything like it where you have a team able to come in, negotiate a contract with an MVP quarterback and see what that dynamic ends up looking like. And if a team might be incentivized to do something crazy that dissuades the Ravens from matching. If you want to throw a huge number into year one, whatever it ends up looking like. So there are just so many things to consider here. I know. That's the other thing. Say if you're another AFC team and you want to, you know, force the Ravens hand to go, hey, let's make them pay an extra $10 million there. Just throw a little bit more.

Make that guarantee. If you're the Raiders right now, let's hypothetically, let's see the Raiders are that team. The Raiders have $40 million in cap space right now. They can free up some more if they want to. The Ravens have some flexibility as well, you know, even with Lamont. Mar on the tag, they still have like $24 million in cap space. But if you're one of these teams, like let's say Atlanta does want in and they can really throw their weight around in year one with the amount of cap space that they have,

does that dissuade the Ravens from trying to match the deal? So it's going to be a hell of a week, man. What happens here over the next 10 days or so with this is going to be unbelievable to watch and I truly cannot wait. All right. Let's get some more quarterback dominoes here. I love that it's quarterback dominoes, not just other positions. That's what's freaking awesome.

It's like, we don't get this all the time. You don't get prospects and everything, but this is great. I love March. NFL calendar. This is March. This is March. You wouldn't think that March is the most fun NFL calendar month, but look back to what happened last year.

We had all of those trades, all of those huge blockbuster moments. And we're sitting here on March 7th right now, and we got 10, things. We're not even able to get to all of them here. I know. So next one. Daniel Jones and the Giants agreed to a four-year $160 million deal with potential for

$35 million more in incentives. Oh boy. Right. I don't like to be mean. But I wanted to just quote, tweet it with Calisi from Game of Thrones doing like, the good for you. They're good for you, face.

Because that was kind of my initial thought. It's like, good for you guys. Good, good for you. Obviously, my first question when we saw that deal is $40 million a year. We've said this over the last however many weeks and we've talked about Daniel Jones. You can say whatever you want. Whatever you want. You can say however much a year you want it to be based on the way that you structure it.

What is it really? It's like handing your little brother the joystick that's not plugged in, the controller that's not plugged in. Just like, oh, yeah, good job. Good job. Yeah, you beat that level, buddy. Yeah, yeah. And that's fine. But I'm wondering what are the actual numbers?

Albert Breer comes in 20, 30 minutes after the initial report, $82 million guaranteed over the first couple of years for Daniel Jones. Yeah. It's real money. It is? That is real money over the first two years. So let's break this down hypothetically. What I was laying out just back in the napkin math, and I'm wondering what the actual contract will look like. All right. So let's say it's four years 160. And let's say hypothetically, you get $32 million to sign. So it's a clean $8 million

in signing bonus over the first four years. Let's say you crank a huge majority of that $40 million a year in AAV into years three and four. So it's like $52 million and $58 million. That means in year one and two, you can have like a $20 million based salary and a $30 million dollar-based salary, which is $50 million, plus $32 million to sign. That's $82 over the first two years. So the cap hits over those two years would be $28 million and $38 million. So even if you're trying to do some funny money where you're cranking it up in years three and four, you're still paying the full freight for a middle class quarterback

contract in those first two years, no matter how you slice this. But it does sound like this is a two-year commitment to Daniel Jones at a pretty hefty price tag. Yeah, and even in looking at franchise tagging him, I think they're trying to leave that open for the Sequin stuff, which we'll talk about in a minute. That's bad process to me. No, no, I know it is.

I'm just talking about this is probably what they went down. But everyone keeps saying that. That's bad process to me. It is. It's franchising for 32. And then if you did it again next year, it's 120%. That's 38 million next year. So that's 70 million over two years.

So you're paying, you know, you're essentially paying what, $6 million more a year. But that would have been guaranteed, yada, yada, yada. But you're still guaranteeing it. But that's still, it's a lot. It's just a lot for Daniel Jones, who even in his best year, yes, he doesn't have receivers and everything, but in his system that was the most conducive to his skill set, that's kind of what you got.

You know, you knock down the turnovers. He's a great running threat. But now you're paying a guy, what we just talk about, a guy, you know, running can lead to injuries. I know we're talking about Lamar and his slightness, and Daniel Jones hasn't really had too many of those issues. But now you're running the guy that you're paying all that money a dozen times. Are you as, you know, likely to do that, even though that's one of his greatest skills? You've seen the bills pay Josh Allen also want to go, let's not use him on so many design runs. These are totally different quarterbacks.

I get it. But I'm just talking about mindset here. So you're paying all that money for a guy that's middle of the pack so far as a passer. That's just so much money. And on top of it, now you're saying, yeah, so we can tax Sequin. It's like, that's a lot of money too for a running back. So it's just a lot. And now if we're talking 28 million, let's say, let's hypothetical.

Let's say it's 25 million against the cap in year one for Daniel Jones. we haven't gotten the actual details of it yet. Let's say it's 25. And you're tagging Saigon for 10. That's $35 million against the cap for those two guys. So all of that cap space that you had to potentially build up the rest of your team, you no longer have if you're the Giants. They came in a day with 37, give or take.

So that's gone. Poof. So that's mostly gone. So now you have the team that you're going to have over the next couple years. And I understand you don't want to tag them because we want to use the tag on Saquan. Again, to me, that's bad process. I know, I agree with you. I'm just saying that that's one of the math components of this, but I agree with you.

I don't like the process. I'm not going to sign my quarterback because if you had tagged them twice to the non-exclusive tag, it's $32 million this year and then 120% of that next year, right? So it's $2.30. Yep, two years 70. I'm, you insulate yourself with that. You lose Sequin. That sucks.

You know, he was really good for you. But I'm not letting Seekwom Barkley's availability this year on the franchise tag dictate I hate whether I'm signing Daniel Jones to a long-term contract. Thank you. I'm just not doing it. That's why I'm not doing it here. Yeah, Sequin had a great year. Sequin's also battled injuries.

Again, the guy that's battle injuries in his career. And now you're saying, okay, having him just on a, in a, when no other variables matter right there. Yes, having Seekwan on a tag. Okay, I understand that. You want to keep him around. He had a great renaissance year last year, and he was a huge part of your offense because we're lacking a lot of weapons.

But leaving yourself saying that that's the argument, leaving yourself flexibility. Yeah, we got to. say quad and we can bring it back Daniel Jones. It's like, okay, good for you, right? That's like, okay, good for you. Like, here you go. Here's a controller. Like, way to go. You beat the level. So that's where I'm right there with you, I think. I just, I'm, I get why they're, I don't get why they're doing it, but I understand their argument, but it's just kind of like, okay, then what are you now? You're not giving yourself much. That's my question. So what are you now?

And if we're playing this out hypothetically, the best case scenario of this, I think the team that has handled this the best, and I should have. mention this when we talked about Gino yesterday. I think the team that has committed to a middle class quarterback and done the best job with it over the last couple years is the alliance. When they decided to bring on Jared Goff as part of that trade, I remember asking Brad Holmes on this show, but why? But you're a rebuilding team.

Why would you want to pay a quarterback, a market quarterback, a veteran quarterback contract as part of that rebuilding process? And I do think that there is some value. value, and this is something that I have kind of tweaked my priors on as I've watched them do what they've done, there's value in competing. I absolutely think there is. But Jared Goff is going to cost an average of $20 million against the cap in 2022 and 2023 combined. That's a team friendly deal. Yes.

So that is the way to do that. And even Gino, we saw the details of the Gino deal. Gino's $40 million guaranteed at signing. It's a $25 million deal over the next two years. The deal that the Seahawks gave to Gino does not preclude them from drafting a quarterback now. It does not cut off avenues for you. So the best case scenario in this we want to compete, we want to build this version of a culture and an organization that the Giants are clearly trying to do with Daniel Jones after the season that they just had is more expensive than other success stories when it comes to this. And you're locking yourself in for two years.

There isn't an out after one year. So I just don't know what you are. Because you're committed to him for two years. Would you be willing to start looking for a replacement as early as next year? If you're going to start looking for replacement as early as next year, why did you do this in the first place? I just, what are you if Daniel Jones is making $40 million a year for you? That to me is the relevant question associated with this. I'm curious.

Is like, are they hedging their bets in case he still improves? Like that's the other thing too. So that's the difference with him and Gino, right? Gino's 30. We know what Gino is. Daniel Jones is 25. So now you are potentially banking on what you saw for a four or five game clip at the end of the season. You're going to get a value on that because he's going to be even better with better weapons and all of that.

Maybe that happens. Maybe that's the story you have to tell yourself if you're giving out this deal is that when we go out and get some receivers and we go out and do this and that, you know, what can he be? You're running out of resources to go build that team. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. And also the fact that you're saying, well, if we put this around them, if we put this around them, that tells you all you need to know about your quarterback. That's fine. No, I'm just saying.

Yeah. No, no, that's what I'm saying. It's like, but that's when we're talking about these middle class quarterbacks, as soon as you start making those arguments, well, we got plop this with him. If we draft this guy, we do. Well, now you're telling me that the quarterback needs help. So now you're telling me what kind of tier of quarterback that you just paid. And I get it. Like the Jared Goff stuff, when you're talking about competing, too, was the other argument.

And I thought this was where you're going with it. It was just also the competency and evaluation, you know, evaluating other players. And that's the other thing you're paying for. But again, golf steals into 20s, not 482 over 2. So that's the other kind of component of that as well. So what the Lions did is golf had like a $25 million base salary in 2021. They converted that to a signing bonus and then prorated the rest of that into restructure. So that essentially puts $10 million in dead cap on his deal this year and the year after.

But that's, it's not, that doesn't preclude you from moving on, right? No. There's so, so much less guaranteed there than there would be in another deal that in effect, you're paying 10 and 30. You're paying 20 over the last two years and it's 31 again this year, but there's, you can move on. So I think there's still just more flexibility associated with that move than there is with what the giants are doing. That matters. That's matters. We talk about, that's team building.

We did this on the bear's pot. We talk about it all the time. Ability to pivot. And that's the thing is when you get pot committed to that, that's scary. That's the scary thing. You want to be pot committed on something. You're like, this is our window. You don't want to be pot committed on, it's like a backhand compliment, competency.

You know what I mean? Like that that's where you want to commit to yourself to winning. So like not just winning at 9 and 8, but winning at 12 and 5 and battling for division titles and true, true playoff runs. I don't know. So that's where. Now that I look at the financials of it, though, I think. you can talk yourself into this being the best case scenario where they're paying Jared Gough in effect like $30 million a year on this contract and it allows them to be competitive

it allows them to start building something. First I thought you're saying Jones. I was like, wait, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, gotcha. Jared Gough has been a better NFL quarterback much more often than Daniel Jones. Yes, several times. Several times.

Even Jogoff's like worst season wasn't like that bad. It's just that he's, you know, you just don't know if it was high it is. But yeah, that's exactly it. And golf's what? He's, how old is he now? 28, 28, 28, so funny. It's not that much older. He's 28, he's 28.

Yeah. That's not that much older. So that's the best case scenario, right? Best case, yes. And I understand trying to chase that best case when you want a bunch of games. You can't take a step back. All of that. Who knows what sort of ownership apparently loves Daniel Joe.

Who knows what sort of thumb they had on the scale to borrow a term that Dan Duggins used on our show a couple weeks ago in relation to this situation. But I don't know, man. I just think it's a dangerous game to play. Even for two years, like what are you after you make this move is just such a relevant question to me? And I don't know if I like the answers. Yeah. It's I don't want to say like I absolutely hate it's the worst deal I've ever seen in my entire life. It's more just like it just leads to more.

questions, which is not what you want when you're throwing money around. I think that's exactly it. QBs. The way that I go, it's like, it's like, okay. Like you, you know who your quarterback is. You're going to get competent quarterback play. What do you put around that? How do you build around it now that you don't have?

I mean, the Lions had two extra first round picks when they, when they went, ended up making the Jared Gough move. The Giants are picking in the 20s. Yeah. You know, it just, the Lions had, they're picking second in that year two. They were tearing it down. I mean, it's just, I don't know. Again, if that's the best case scenario to me is what it looks like with Jared Gough

or I guess with Ryan Tannahill, right? Like, so Ryan Tannahill got a similar deal where you're giving him $30 million a year. But Ryan Tannos, 2019 was like... They're the best offense to the league. Yeah, like a top 10 quarterback here in the past decade, like advanced stats-wise. I mean, like, seriously, it was. The question that I ask is like, okay, what successful situations do you know, does this resemble? What can you point to as the best case outcomes for something like this?

And to me, there just aren't that many of them. Even if now we do have a middle class quarterback contract that has been established, right? The top guys are making 50. Now we have these guys making, you know, Geno's case 25 and Derek Carr's case 30 and Daniel Jones's case 35. I do think that's probably right. But I think it depends on where you are in your team building process, what sort of quarterback that you're betting on. and how long you want to be committed to that guy. We talked about the Saints. They were paying it into a corner.

I totally understand it. The Seahawks, I think, did a good job with the Gino contract. He gets $40 million. It's life-changing money. It's a fantastic story. If they want to move on after this year because they drafted a guy in the top five, they can. And I just, it's harder for me to talk myself into why this was necessary and why this is beneficial for where the Giants are right now.

I just tag them. Just show me again. Maybe you risk the price goes up. maybe he plays so well that you risk that the price goes up. But that's just a risk I'm willing to take, even with better weapons. I just am. And I get it. They know it better than anyone because they're in the meeting rooms with him.

They get all that. But it's just, it's, it's interesting. It's, you're betting on outliers. And we talked about those draft. Talk about free agency. When you bet on outliers, you, you crap out a lot of times. You're betting on the hard ways. You're betting on 12 coming.

Like it's just, I don't know. It's to me, it's just, again, it's, lean more questions. And I get it. There's an uptick with his play. This is the best he ever looked. And he has tools and all that. But it's just the, like you said, golf has had more good seasons than Daniel Jones so far. And that, that matters. That really does matter what you're expecting to get out of these players. You declined his fifth year after a year ago. Right. And also you're saying nine months later or a year later, you're like, yeah. And maybe you saw enough from him. I guess that should be that much has changed in the last year. But it's just hard for me to believe that.

I know. It's just, it's hard for me to believe that. All right, let's stick on the quarterbacks, one more guy. We got to talk about Aaron Rogers because the entire Jets organization flew to California to go meet with Aaron Rogers, apparently. It was reported that Joe Douglas, the owner, Sala, Nathaniel Hackett, they're all on some plane going to make their pitch to Aaron Rogers now that he's emerged from the darkness. And I don't know how you feel about this.

We were talking about it a little bit off-line. It kind of feels like for bowl. parties, this has to happen. Has to. It has to happen. How about Nathaniel Hackett? Like, he has to really go and be like, hey, Aaron, remember me again? DeBase himself again to try to go get Aaron Rogers.

Again, we spent all that time together in Green Bay. I took a job expecting you to come follow me there. Yeah, that, uh, I don't know. It has to at this point. The Derek, that's the Derek Carr domino though. That the Derek Carr, it goes to the Saints. And now this, it's funny. It's because now it went from like, ooh, the Jets.

have a couple of Austrians, Jimmy G. originally, then Derek Carr. Now, it's like, okay, this just seems like inevitable. But it's just so funny, like just, they're almost made for each other at this point. It's just what Rogers is where he's at and also the Jets and where they're at as a team. I would like it from a football set. It'd be so much fun. But it's just also, it's just very, very funny at like the process so far. They don't have very many other options right now. No, I think that landing on Jimmy G for one year and 17 million is just kind of deflating after the potential other options that were out there. So it feels like they need this to happen from where they are in terms of their urgency,

them wanting to make the playoffs this year, the timeline that that coaching staff and regime is on. And I think that Rogers needs this to happen because if the Jets aren't the team, I don't know if there's another team that's going to roll out the red carpet like this. And if I were him, maybe even just the safe face a little bit, I would just act like I'm sought after guy that everybody wants so much. Look at how beloved I am. Look at how in demand my services are. They just, they did everything to woo me. And because if you let it get past the Jets, I'm not sure there are many more guys coming hat

in hand to ask you whether or not you want to come play quarterback for them. Yeah, I think the Packers have shut out Rogers and he's kind of just going to, yeah, wait, wait, this is how it's supposed to work. I'm supposed to be the one making demands. Like, I want Randall Cobb sign for another year. I think that really is what is, yeah, I agree. I think Rogers, like you said, they both, both parties have to save face here. No, that's so funny because, yeah, if this doesn't work out for him, then what now? Because who would be? I don't think the Raiders would do it. I mean, I don't think there are that many other teams that would be lining up for Rogers at this stage. So I think, again, for both parties, it makes the most sense. And sidebar, and just from when I saw him in August,

and also just talking with people that I know with the Packers is that sources from the the Packers is they are they really do like Jordan Love they are optimistic about them I know they have to talk themselves into it no matter what because this is the time anyways but I think they're fine they're kind of just going whatever you want to do Aaron we're gonna or no we're gonna tell you what's gonna happen Aaron and you don't do the other way around so that's exactly it so if Jets fall off then it's like all right we just talked about the seats at the table where we're talking about the Lamar trade there's the seats are kind of interesting right now there's a lot of teams that are like maybe I don't want to commit to this I don't want to trade for that and the Jets are like the one team so yeah It makes sense that they're going all out for them and laying out the red carpet for them. All right. So speaking of dominoes, now that the Daniel Jones domino has fallen and the giants are franchise tagging Saquan Berkeley, that sets off some dominoes with the running back market. Because we anticipated there being this huge free agent running back market this off season. And now arguably the top three guys at the position were tagged.

So Saquan is now back. Josh Jacobs is back with the Raiders. and Tony Pollard is back with the Cowboys. Now I don't know how the running back market is going to shake out. Does this mean that Miles Sanders, it gets a bigger deal than we might expect? Does this mean that David Montgomery or Kareem Hunt or some of these guys that maybe were a little bit further down the list, suddenly get more attractive for teams that need a running back? Or is the running back market so cold that this doesn't really matter?

And these guys weren't going to have huge interest no matter what. it also funny to me after we did that franchise tag discussion a few weeks ago was it's funny seeing which positions are kind of like the emphasis of the tags like last year was a bunch of tight ends and a couple safeties and stuff like in the 2019 there's like six guys tagged and four of them were edge rushers and like a kicker and like something like that it might have been seven guys but it's funny that like three runningbacks there's only six guys that got tagged this year duron pain Tony Pollard Josh Jacobs Evan Ingram Lamar Jackson and Sequant three of those were running backs so it's just funny how

markets work out. Yeah, but that's why it's a market. No, I think what's going to happen to not this is just me throwing this out there. I think all teams have cooled on running backs. I think the whole like everyone's kind of on the same page with it. And I think there's this is actually a very interesting class to me. Like you already mentioned, Kareem Hunt, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris is an interesting running back.

Even the other runner back for the Browns, DeNers Johnson in his limited time. Last year he didn't have any touches, but the year before when he was, he was in spot duty. He looked great. Deonté Foreman is an interesting back. He finally got full run with the Panthers last year. Yes, they have a good offensive line.

Looked great in that role. Then you have other guys like Devin Singletary. Jeff Wilson. It's an interesting class. Rashad Penny is unbelievably talented if he could say healthy. Oh, Rashad Penny. If I were a contender, I would take a one-year flyer on him. If his price is right.

Holy crap. He is so one, honestly, one of the most talented players, any position in the league, as far as just true, talented athlete. But he just can't say healthy, which, again, always going to bring that up. But it is an interesting class. But why I'm bringing up all those names, there's not going to be a lot of competition.

Even with those three guys tagged, there's a lot of guys in those kind of tiers, kind of like the goodish, above average tier. No one's going to maybe get the bank broken for them. So I think that's kind of where it's going to happen with this runoffback market that maybe these guys, yes, the market's going to be a little better because the top end guys are. but now it's going to be a lot of teams have options and interesting options.

Role players, full three down backs, guys that can be part of a rotation. They have choices. So I think that's why the market's going to be a little deflated than maybe what you expect. Numbers have come out in report reported. Daniel Jones, first year cap number 19 million. So 28 million was my guess. So it's a little bit less, which is not surprising. Teams trying to pump that number down all the time.

$94 million virtually guaranteed at signing. So that, to me, says about $12 million into year. three and year four, which, what does that mean? You know, you can move on from that pretty easy. Yeah, yeah, that's easy. So, again, it's just like two years at 40 million over those first two years. Yeah, the running back thing, it just, and we didn't talk about the draft class, how many guys might be available in the draft where it caused these guys to have a little bit of a cooler market. So even in a year we thought we could have some big name guys hitting the market as free agent running backs.

That's not going to happen. The opposite is now true at offensive tackle, where the guys that we may be expected to get tagged, really one guy that we expected to get tagged, did not. So Orlando Brown is not being tagged by the chiefs. And then Donovan Smith was released today or is going to be released by the Bucks. So now, usually, there are no left tackles available in a free agency, almost ever. now you have two that are starting caliber left tackles. I know Donovan Smith had a down year last year, but he has shown in the past he is a capable starter at left tackle, the likes of which do not come along very often.

So now do those guys, what sort of market do those guys have? And then what does it look like at right tackle? Because you have Juan Taylor over there, Caleb McGarry, who is not being tagged. That was reported today. that line's already passed. And Mike McGlachie. So now potentially you have five guys. One more name to throw on there.

Isaiah win. And Isaiah win. So can you get Isaiah win at a discount? Because he's been banged up. I'd be peppering him a little bit. But I know his injury. Injury. That's why he's on the market right now.

But he's another name. I was just kind of keep a tab on. So we talk about you want to talk about the chiefs a little bit. Like what are the chiefs doing? Is there a chance that the chiefs just signed out of Smith for half of what Orlando Brown is going to get on the market. Same tier of player. That would make a lot of sense.

And then they're saving money to make other moves. The Frank Clark move, I understood because they're saving so much money, but the Orlando Brown non-tag, that's why that combination of moves giving themselves space. It just, I could be totally wrong here, but just something is, something's up in Kansas City. I really do think that. It might just be a couple minor moves. That's why they're piecemailing this all together as far as cap space.

but Kansas City is interesting to me as far as are they trying to splash somewhere, you know, and I'm just trying to figure them out. I think we all are. I'll be curious to see how the right tackle market shakes out because I think that Taylor is going to get most of that group just because of his ability and pass protection of what he showed this year. But it's a different consideration to the one that the Falcons are facing with Caleb McGarry or the market is facing with Caleb McGarry.

They didn't drop back at all. but playing with Trevor Lawrence and playing in that offense this year, you're going to look a lot better in pass protection with how quickly they got rid of the ball, with how good he is at mitigating pressure. So I think there are serious questions, but this is always the case of free agents. There's serious questions with all of the right tackles. McGlunchy has been banged up.

So do you want to live that life with Juan Taylor had his best season of his career this year, but it coincided with his quarterback having one of the quickest times to throw in the league and a guy who's very, very good at not turning pressures into sacks. And Caleb McGarry plays for a team that never drops back. So you have those three guys that I know it looks like there are some options at right tackle and free agency, but how you willing to roll the dice on that? And then on the other side, are you willing to pay $22, $23 million a year for Orlando Brown when he isn't David Bactiari or Laramie Tunsell or Trent Williams?

I was looking for the third guy. And also is playing with a quarterback that's very, very good at avoiding sacks. Yes. Same way. That's why Andrew Wiley, you know, he's a free agent as well. Interesting name too. He's a restrictive free agent. But our guy, Yash Neiman, Nyman, Yash Nyman. That is, that one, I don't know.

I want to see what tender they put on them. Because that's a guy that if I would be, if I was in the tackle market, I would be sniffing around about. I would be willing to give up a middle round pick for him or a second round pick, I think would be the tender probably for him. That was the guy I'd been thinking about for a while, but I'd be more than realized that he was a restricted free agent. Yeah, he's an RFA. Yeah.

He would be one. I'd be, I'd be sniffing. Because I think he plays, he's now proven. He can play a lot tackle. He played both tackles. He has proof.

He played right tackle this year. He had to because, yeah, box's not going over there. So it's, yeah, he, that's the guy for me that I would be willing to spend.

He's a viable, solid to eat. even good left or right tackle. And that should have a lot of value. I think he's 27. That's a guy that I'd be circling and starring if I needed a tackle, Chicago Bears or another team that might be willing to tackle chiefs. Any of those, any team, every team could use a tackle.

But that's a name I would have circled, highlight, and starred if I were team sniffing. Okay. So RFA tenders, first round is $6 million. Second round is $4.3 million. What tender do you think they put on them? I think second round. Would you be, would you go up a second round pick for your,

for Josh Nyman if you were, oh my God, yes. Oh my God. Yeah. It's an interesting one. Typically because we don't see guys that are given those tenders that are worth those sorts of price tags. You don't see the undrafted tackle.

You don't usually see these types of guys hit. So that that really helps a little bit. I know he's. Panthers not expected to pursue Lamar Jackson. Neither are the dolphins. I think I think I just saw that too. So all these, all the seats getting drying up already. It's going to be interesting.

All right. It really is. Uh, that's all we got. We'll be back tomorrow. Five minutes. Oh my God. That was awesome. It was so far.

We had a whole other show plan. Hold another show. As soon as I start, all of this news starts rolling in, it's like, we're going to talk for an hour about all this other stuff. We're doing a whole other list of shit. It definitely does not make sense. So I'm glad that we handled it this way. Yeah.

This is great. Fun day. I mean, this is all you can ask for in the off season or these sorts of days with this sort of just the ticker is nonstop with stuff we're digging into. It's fantastic. So we're going to be back tomorrow. The tentative plan for tomorrow's show is to talk about some of the other veterans who might be available this off season. So not free agents per se, but guys that you can get on the trade market, guys that could move teams that are some of the bigger name guys that aren't hitting free agency, but. might be on the move. So that is the tentative plan for tomorrow. I hesitate to even mention that,

but we'll throw that out there, put it into the world, and maybe it'll happen for us. For now, sincerely appreciate you guys listening. If you have not listened to episodes four and five of Between the Lions, the final episodes of Tishon Reed's excellent narrative podcast series about the Black experience in the NFL, I encourage you to go check those out. The fourth episode was about the history of executives in the league, and the fifth episode kind of wraps up the entire series. Deshaun did a fantastic job. Work for over a year and a half in putting together that series. If you haven't checked it out, really encourage you to go do that.

A little bit later today, Prospects to Prospects. We'll be back with Dan Brugler and Andy Staples. Football GM with Mike Sando and Randy Muir also returns tomorrow. So be on the lookout for that, probably midday or so because we've got another show coming out in the morning like I just mentioned. If you have not, please rate and view the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. Go to Apple Podcast. Tell us you like it.

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We'll plan on talking to you guys tomorrow. This was the Athletic Football Show. Thank you.