The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen? It's the TAFS 2024 Awards Spectacular!

Episode Date: January 1, 2025

Lamar or Josh, who's the MVP? It's the question that will define NFL awards season this year. Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen answer it at the end of this episode of The Athletic Football Show. Before that, the guys hand out all the rest of the standard hardware—Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, you know the drill—as well as the extras that get at the heart and soul of TAFS—Assistant Coach of the Year, narrative changers, and more.RundownOffensive Player of the YearDefensive Player of the YearOffensive Rookie of the YearDefensive Rookie of the YearExecutive of the YearAssistant Coach of the YearCoach of the YearPleasant SurprisesBiggest DisappointmentsNarrative ChangersMVPHost: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. Me and Derek Classen handed out some end-of-season awards. Really enjoyed every aspect of this discussion. We hit the big ones. The MVP discussion is going to be coming last. We spent a lot of time on that, a lot of care put into that,

because I think it's a tough one. You could go either way with Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, and we talked about the cases for both guys at length, but also discussed some of the biggest surprises from this year, defensive player of the year, and how that's an interesting argument, offensive rookie of the year and how that's a pretty tight race, the coach of the year race this year and just all the different cases you can make for the guys there.

So really enjoy digging into all of those arguments with Derek. Let's get to it. All right, Derek, here we go. End of season awards. Doing this after week 17, which isn't ideal, but I think there are enough guys. Like Josh Allen's going to play a half or a quarter just to keep his consecutive game streak alive. for all intents and purposes, the season is over for a good majority of the teams in the NFL. So the fact that it landed that way makes me feel a little bit more comfortable about doing this with one week left.

There was part of me that was like, I can't believe we're going to do this one. Some of these are really close and you can make any argument you want. We're going to do with one game left on the schedule. But for the most part, because people are sitting, because everything, not everything, but most of the playoffs are sewn up, I feel okay doing this a week earlier than we actually should. Absolutely. Like some of these races are close, so it feels like you would want to push it to the end of the season. But almost none of the games should have any bearing on that race. So it really doesn't matter if we're doing it a week beforehand.

Yeah, and this is just the nature of the schedule. Like, we're going to have to talk about coaching news on the midweek show next week. So we're going to do awards now just because that's how the next few weeks are going to unfold. We're going to do this in the same order essentially that we did the midseason award show with Barnwell. We're going to save MVP for the end. So sorry about that. If you want to skip to the MVP conversation, you can. But we're going to have a lot of fun discussions along the way.

So don't do that. Let's kick this off with offensive player of the year. Midway through the year, I had Derek Henry, you had Sequin Barkley. I feel like it's less close now than it was halfway through the season. Who is your offensive player of the year for 2024? It's Saquan Barkley. And I feel pretty good for calling my shot with that one. And you're right.

I think it's not as close. as it was because I do think there was a perfectly great argument for Derek Henry by week nine, week 10. But at this point, the volume for Barclay has kind of just kicked him into a different gear. The fact that he's hit the 2K mark, which only a handful of other players have ever done, and he's like 300 yards. Yeah, nine. Funny enough, and it's 2024. Funny enough, Derek Henry is one of them. It just wasn't this year. But he's like 300 yards ahead of Henry right now. But then even some of the advanced metrics and other stats are pretty favorable for Berkeley. Like, Barclay has 46 runs of at least 10 yards. That's five more than the second place person, which of course is Derek Henry. He's just

been such an explosive machine for this offense. And then kind of like I said during the mid-year show, when I think about Saquan Barkley and what he does for the offense, I feel like he does more for Jalen Hertz and for the passing offense, whereas with the dynamic between the Ravens and Derek Henry is Lamar opens up a lot for Derek Henry. And of course, he takes advantage of it as well as anybody could. But to me, the dynamic is still just different. And that's how I felt at the midseason point. And that's how I feel right now. You swung me then. And it's not hard to swing me now. I think that he is more central to what the Eagles have been on offense and is a more irreplaceable part of who the Eagles are on offense compared to somebody like Derek Henry. And you go over 2,000 yards. You're the

engine that drives what has been a top 10 offense for a good chunk of this year, you know, a team with real Super Bowl aspirations. I have no issue with this. I think Sequin Barclay should be the offense player of the year. And the two guys, I would say outside of that to acknowledge, Derek Henry's had a phenomenal season. Again, I said this halfway through the year, and I believe it's still a legacy sort of season for Derek Henry. One of those seasons where we're going to remember this when we're making Hall of Fame cases, which there aren't going to be that many running backs. They're going to have solid ones from the last 10 or 15 years. I think Derek Henry absolutely does. And I think something like this, let's say Baltimore even like wins

the Super Bowl, et cetera. It really is a feather in his cap when you think about his career-long resume. And I think Jammar Chase has been unbelievable. Like, I just, when I think about receivers in the league, and this is something we should have a conversation about maybe sometime this offseason, just the Jemar Japh, the Jemar Chase, Justin Jefferson thing, because I think it's a fascinating discussion and Price says more about you than it does about either of the players. But if we're trying to draw distinctions between them now, Jammar Chase is just to me, probably

like the biggest force of nature in the league. Like any time he touches the ball, it can go for 65. Any game, he can go for 15, 203 scores. It's insane. Like, I just, he is a physical force at the receiver position that is just very different than everyone else. And he has had what is arguably his best season as a pro this year. He's been unbelievable, man.

He is like, I feel like the best way I've come down on him is that I think some of the other best receivers in the league are obviously. obviously Justin Jefferson, and then AJ Brown. And I feel like Jamar Chase is like this 90% version of both of them, where he is almost as explosive and like strong as AJ Brown, good at the catch point, all of that stuff. And he's not quite the route runner and slippery guy that Justin Jefferson is, but man, for a guy his size and the way that he's built, he is really, really good at route running getting open. And he's actually grown at that from what he was, you know, two, three years ago. So Jamar Chase, man, he's just, I do feel like he is the

biggest force of nature. Like just when that guy's out there, you're scared of him before the catch. You're scared of him if he gets the ball. Multiple times this year he's taking a ball like 60 yards out on a catch and run. Like he's just, he's awesome, man. He's the guy I wanted to put in here. But Barclay was just literally historic. Those are the three guys that probably throughout.

Petty Sewell's had an incredible year. I feel like we should mention offensive linemen in these discussions. Whatever happened last night, it's a weird game for the Lions. But the season he's had, just how important he's been to that team and just their identity on offense. I think that's worth mentioning as well, but I think this one's Sequin Barquoise and don't have to spend a ton more time on it. Defensive Player of the Year is a different sort of conversation because this is a weird field for defensive player of the year. Who did you end up going with?

Who was your midseason pick? I can't remember. I think it was Miles Garrett because my default was just like, there's not a great narrative here and he still feels like the best defender in the league. So I'll give it to him. I don't necessarily think I've moved off of that, and I do think Garrett is still in it for me. I think just based on a little bit of narrative-wise, I pushed myself towards Patrick Sirtan, actually, just because, like, if we're going to, typically the defensive player of the year is like the best player on the best defense. There's a case that Denver is the best defense, and Patrick Sturtan has been incredible this year,

and he's very obviously central to the way that they play. They are a top-five team in man coverage rate strictly because of that. that guy can just glove up anybody. And I think you see him do it against all certain types of body types. He can, you know, for years, he was like Devonte Adams' boogeyman. And then you even watch him against the Raiders this year. And we're going to talk about Brock Bowers in a little bit. He just gloves up Brock Bowers every single time they are up against each other.

And that guy's already a top three player at his position. And Brock Bowers is like 200, 230 pounds. So the fact that he can just do all that consistently, he's a better tackler now than he was like three years ago. Like, Sertan is just, there's a... there's just not many big plays he gives up. And when you watch him give up a pass, it's like, oh, he gave up a five-yard hitchh route and tackled it for six. Okay. If that's the worst play my guy's giving up, that's totally fine. There's no transcendent season from a pass rush for this year. There's no year where it's just like we have to give it to one of these guys. And that's

why I feel like it opens up the field a little bit. Miles Garrett's had a fine year. You know, TJ Watts had a fine year, but not, oh my God, these are defensive player of the year type campaigns. Trey Hendrickson's been good. I also gave it to pass. Patrick Stratan because I just think it's the type of year where you can. And if you look at the numbers and the usage, I think you can easily make an argument for him. So this year, he is tied for the league lead, according to Next Gen, on total EPA, negative EPA generated when targeted. So teams have produced negative 25.6 EPA when targeting Patrick Sertan this year, which is the tied for the lowest rate in the entire league. He's been targeted, again, according to next gen, on 10.8% of dropbacks, which is a bottom three rate for any full-time

corner in the league. He's averaging 0.6 yards per target when the closest player in coverage, which is the best mark in the NFL. Which is crazy when you consider how much of it is man. Because like if it's all zone, you can get sticky, right? You can get weird. Yes. So coverage stats in general, I think there's a lot of noise in them and I'm always a little bit hesitant about it. But if you look at just that, I think they're directionally accurate most of the time. And so the fact that he's the league leader in all of these things. And then you can you combine that with what he's asked to do. He is one of one right now in terms of deployment against the best receivers in the league

and the success he has against those players. The game against Jamar Chase is a perfect example. They're moving him to the slot all the time, and he's on Jamar Chase for most of that game. 78% of the Bengals plays in that game, the Bengals dropbacks. Patrick Stattain was on Jamar Chase last week. On those plays, three catches for 27 yards on six targets against Jamar Chase. I'm going to read off some of the game of the gameals.

I'm going to read off some of the other one-on-one matchups from this year, where he played at least 45% of the snaps over one single receiver. 45% or over half the time against Michael Pittman, zero catches for zero yards on one target. 45% of the time on Drake London, zero catches on two targets for zero yards. 65% of the time on DeAndre Hopkins, two catches for 13 yards on 18 routes.

21 routes against Jacoby Myers, one catch for one target for 18 yards. 61% of the time on Garrett Wilson in that game, two catches for 22 yards on three targets on 28 routes. Against Mike Evans, 71% of snaps, 24 routes, one catch on one target for nine yards. On George Pickin, 65% of the time. One catch for 16 yards on two targets.

On DK and Beck half, 94% of the time, 24 routes, three catches for 29 yards on four targets. So you have a guy that is drawing the hardest assignment in every single game. Often you ask to play man coverage against the other team's best receiver when they have a best receiver and he still has the best advanced metrics of any single corner in the league. And think about all the different body types. Garrett Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Jamar Chase, like those are all such fundamentally different

players. Brock Bowers, like I just mentioned, like these are all completely different types of players and it doesn't matter. He finds a way to glove them up. One, he's just a physically, he's insane. I mean, he's six-two long. He's not like the fastest. but he's a pretty fast guy. To me, he's fast enough. Yeah, he's more than fast enough.

We weren't sure how fast he was. And then he ran like a four four to go well. And it turns out. He never looks like he's recovering. So that's why we didn't know how fast he was in college. And that's the thing. It like it turns out you don't even need to be the fastest guy on the field if you're never out of position, which he never is.

Like that's the most fascinating part about him is that he on 80% of these routes. It feels like he's running the route for the guy. Like he's just, if it's an inbreaker, he's jumping. before the receiver is like he's just so ahead of what needs to be happening. He's truly one of the smartest defensive backs I've ever seen, which again, when you put that into a package that is six too long can run. Yeah, man, that guy's going to be the best corner in the league. Yeah.

And this year, again, when there's no season that really reaches up and grabs the award. I think this is the type of year where you can talk yourself into this sort of season Patrick Chattain has had. And we both did. I feel more than comfortable doing it. I do think if Michael Parsons had had. had the second half of this season for the whole season, that probably would have been it.

He was a great call. Unreal, man, for that second half when he came back. It's a great call. And, you know, Petroshertyans missed a game and a half, essentially. He got concussed early in that Raider game and then missed the Saints game in the following week. But that's not enough for me to knock him off this. I think he's been that good this year. It's offensive rookie of the year.

Who did you have for offensive rookie of the year? You and I have been talking about this behind the scenes for the last month or so. and I think we both had an answer maybe three, four weeks ago. I have changed mine since then, but I'm curious where you landed with this. Mine is still Brock Bowers. And the reason I brought him up in the last segment is why it's so important that he's that impressive. He's one of the best rookie tight ends that we've ever seen.

He broke the rookie receptions record. He broke the rookie tight end yards record. He leads the NFL right now in receiving yards among tight ends. And I think even beyond all of the stats, the biggest thing to me is that usually in these rookie award cases, it's, okay, this guy had a really great season for a rookie. And then if you really recontextualized it, it's like, okay, well, he's probably like the 11th best player at his position. With Brock Bowers, I think there's a very strong case. He's a top three player at his position right now. And I think the only player I would firmly take over him is what George Kittle has done this year.

George Kittle, like, it's better blocker. George Kittle's like the most explosive player at the position. So he's probably the only guy I would friendly put ahead of him. But I think you can right now, Brock Bowers in that next tier with, you know, like Trey McBride or Mark Andrews or whoever you want to bring up. I think he is absolutely in that tier. You just can't say that to me about any of the other rookies that they are already in that high of the upper echelon of their position. I think that's totally fair. It was funny. I'm smiling because when I was watching the Lions Niners game last night, one of my thoughts was George Cato's probably first team all pro. Like based on the way he's played this year.

He looks incredible. He's 31 years old and with a ball in his hands. He looks as dynamic as he's ever been. And you're watching him, admittedly against a banged up Lions defense, but just the way he's moving right now and you combine it like you said with what he can do as a blocker. He's had a phenomenal season. But if you're doing a second team all pro, I think you could absolutely argue that Brock Bowers deserve. to be on there as a rookie. Exactly. Like he's just, I don't know, there's not that many times where you get to put a rookie into the all pro team. It's like maybe one guy a season. And to me, it's, that guy is

Brock Bowers. I understand the argument. I hear the argument. I'm still giving it to Jaden Daniels. I know we default to quarterbacks too much with these awards. With MVP, it probably has to be a quarterback if you're talking about overall volume. And I totally understand that. But with offense rookie, that we don't have to do that, but I still think what he has done in the last month or so in some of these high leverage moments late in games has been remarkable. And just how unflappable he's looked and how central he is to the success.

We gave it to CJ Stroud last year. CJ Stroud had an incredible season. The Texans were still like an average offense when you look at some of the metrics. Like they weren't a top five-ish offense. Washington has been. Washington has been like a top five, top eight offense for a huge chunk of this year. And I think that they're, and we'll talk about Cliff later in this show. I love some of just the overall structure of the offense, the design.

I think they've done a fantastic job there. But looking at some of the numbers and trying to separate what Jaden Daniels has done from what the offense is. According to Next Gen, the Jadenanos has 89 total passing EPA this season. 37 of that has come on scrambles. So we're talking about more than a third of the total value that he has created as a pastor has come on scrambles. What he's been able to do with his legs, especially in high leverage moments, to me, that transcends whatever the offense has given him. And I just think if we're trying to tell the story of the season, what he has been to a very good offense, objectively, a playoff team, when we look back on this year, I think that that's probably the first thing I'll go to, even when. when we're remembering the season that Brock Bowers had. It reminds me a little bit of the C.J.

Stroud Pooka Nakua thing last year. When Akua was one of the most productive receivers in the entire NFL, we probably could have given it to him. But I still just feel like when a quarterback has this undeniable of a year, I'm probably going to default to the quarterback, even if that's a little bit unfair. I totally hear the argument, too, and Daniels would have been my runner-up. And I think when you do scale for the difficulty of the position, I think it's a completely fine argument. And I do think he stepped up, it's especially in the big moments, right? Like, the numbers do kind of speak for themselves and they've been good for a rookie, but it's the fact that he stepped up in those moments that I think kind of would separate him or push him. I just lean towards the idea of like what Nukua did last

year and what Bowers has done this year is historic. Like, they're going to, their name is going to be on the top of a list. And that to me is a little bit more deserving of getting the hardware. I don't disagree with that. I just, I just, I, Again, it's those moments that I keep coming back to along with him doing more of the lifting for the offense than I think we've probably acknowledged over the course of the entire season. It's just some names I want to throw out before we move on because as we talked about on the Week 17 recap show, it's been a phenomenal year for rookies, especially offensive guys. Bowers would have been my runner up and you could easily give it to him if you want to. Brian Thomas, we just said, he's one of four players in NFL history to have 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns as one of four receivers in NFL history to have 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. The other three are Randy Moss, Odo Beckham, and Jamar Chase.

Decent season from Brian Thomas Jr. Ladd McConkey is like eighth in the league in yards per route run. He's been unbelievable this year. Bucky Irving has been phenomenal for the Bucks. He is already one of the most fun offensive players in the league to watch with the ball in his hands. And Tyrone Tracy has had a really nice season. Him and Malik neighbors were both very good for the Giants. So it's a longer list than I think even normal when we're trying to acknowledge and recognize

some of the really nice seasons we've had from rookies this year. And even Joe Alt. Joe Alt is actually the one that is, to me, closest to my criteria of, is this guy top three at his position? I still don't think he is. I mean, you have Penae Soule, Lane Johnson, like Brian O'Neill, even Luke Kadecki, but he was at least closer to that than I would have thought coming into the season.

He's already a good right tackle. With tackles, he's very young. With tackles in the league, it's always a crapshoot. You have guys, Andrew Thomas always is the famous example where he comes in and it looks kind of a disaster and now he's a all pro level player. The fact that Joe Alda's come in have been good right away, I think speaks to where this is probably headed. So it's a good shot.

Defensive rookie of the year. We both had Jared versus midseason. Where are you sitting now? End of the year. Defensive rookie of the year for 2024. I'll be honest. This is probably the award that I feel like the least just like sure of either way or the least like I just had a hard time like finding a guy that I felt super confident giving

it to. couple I want to shout out just beforehand, like Cooper DeGine was awesome, Queenette Mitchell was awesome, Mike Sainer still for the commanders was awesome. But I did kind of just devolve to Jared because I just think the pressure numbers for what he's done this year have been insane. And I think narratively, if you want to do it, replacing Aaron Donald was always going to be an impossible task. But the fact that he's done what he's done immediately off the edge for them, giving them some power, some pocket crushing ability, it's not Aaron Donald, but for a guy that you took, in the first round in a defensive class that people didn't think was that good,

it's about as impressive as I think he could have been. So I still ended up devolting to Jaredverse. If we're talking about the same thing we were with Brock Browers, where do you sit among players at your position as a rookie? Jared versus like top five in total pressures as a rookie. He's already been one of the most impactful defensive players in the league as a rookie this season. So I'm looking at it right now, total pressures per PFF, Jared versus fourth. in the NFL this year. The only guys he's behind are Miles Garrett, Jonathan Granard, and

Trey Hendrickson. That's it. Like, he has been a very, very good pass rusher from day one. And that's why I, zero hesitation to give this to him. The guys that you mentioned are the guys I would also mention. Quignan Mitchell would probably have been second for me. Cooper DeGine has been awesome since he came back, you know, third of the way through the year. A few other guys I throw out, I really like Chop Robinson. I've been very impressed with Chop Robinson. just the power that he plays with for somebody who's a little bit undersized. I did not expect that.

He has more clubs in his bag than I thought he was going to coming into the league. So he's somebody I'm excited about. You can stick in the Rams defensive line. Braden Fiske has been awesome. Brayton Fiske is a really fun player to watch. He's been impactful as a rookie.

I'm super impressed of what Camari Waster has done, especially like over the last month. You know, I felt like early in the season you could take advantage of him in space a little bit. And I just think that he's really taken his game, stepped up over the last four to six weeks. And Terry and Arnold has been a really solid starter for the Lions this entire year. So this was supposed to be a down defensive

class. And I actually think we've gotten a decent amount of above average day one contributors from a class that was a little bit underwhelming when you look back on it. I couldn't agree more. And even a sneaky one, like the Chargers defense feels different when Cam Hart is not out there, like when he's been hurt. And so that to me, like, I don't think he was good enough to win this award or anything, but just the guy that I was like, man, I didn't expect you to be the contributor that you were day one. The Chargers draft class just looks insane already. Just the amount of guys they've gotten from it and the contributors. It's a very good starting point if you're Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh. Speaking of Joe Hortiz, we're going to get to executive of the year next,

but first, let's take a quick break. All right, executive of the year. I had Adam Peters midseason. Do you remember who you had? I think I also ended up leaning Adam Peters. And he also, he also, He's a very strong case now, but I did end up going a different direction. Who did you have? I went with Adam Peters, and here's my reason. First of all, I think I know who your other one is going to be, and he would be my runner-up, assuming it's who I think it is. But I went with Adam Peters, and the reason is we have like seven or eight of these awards here,

right? And I think there are Washington players that you could put in the conversation for a lot of them. I think you could make the case, obviously, for Jaden Daniels' as rookie of the year. I think you could make the case that, like, Cliff could be a, assistant of the year, which we'll talk about. But I struggled putting any of them as the winner for that. And so my default was like, all right, I got to give this team something, some award for something. And so Adam Peters being able to put all of this together, some of the way their draft class has

come together. Some of all like their free agent signings, even if a lot of them didn't feel exciting going into the season. A lot of them have worked out. Like Jeremy Chin has been really good for them. Drafting Santer still has been really good. I think you've seen flashes from Drizahn Newton on the interior. I think he's been solid when given a chance. The offensive line is much better than I thought. And I do think against some of that is scheme. But they did go out and sign some guys and make sure that they could solidify that. They drafted Brandon Coleman. So I just think they've done a better job, making sure there aren't as many holes in this roster as I thought going in and then hiring the coaching staff that they did. I thought they did a good job. Now I don't feel as strongly about mine because it's a really good

argument. But you see, you don't have to feel bad about not giving Jay and Daniels Rookie of the year. though. That was part of I had. This was like a guilt award for me a little bit. And I just think that the way they built the pass rush unit, like obviously they have guys start the year, but John Allen misses a huge majority of the season. Jerry Newton starts the year hurt. What they've gotten from guys like Dorrance Armstrong, Dante Fowler, Bobby Wagner's been good for them in the middle of their defense. Like Jeremy Chin is a great guy to point out. I mean, they had to rebuild this entire roster. You know, Biotish is somebody that I was like, I don't know. Like what does it really do for you? Yeah. Like what? What is it really? Yeah. Like what? What does it really do? And I understand trying to get some stability at center when you have a young quarterback. I think that's worthwhile. But I just was never overly impressed with him in Dallas. I thought he was kind of just a guy. And he's been better than I expected him to be in the way that they've built that group.

And we talked about this in the mid-year show. And he's had his issues because he's a third-round rookie. But I remember talking to people there during training camp. And I was like, you guys are really going to roll into this season with like Cornelius Lucas as your left tackle. And you're going to feel okay about that with a rookie quarterback who, you know, has is slight and has been known to take a sack or two. Like you feel all right about that? And they were, I think, so steadfast in not getting ahead of their timeline where it was like,

you know what, we're just going to see how this goes because why would we go out and find a stopgap option? They didn't use these names, but just these are the players are available. Like at Donovan Smith and cut off the development pathway to a guy in Brandon Coleman, who we drafted in the third round that we think is raw, but it's worth seeing what we have there. And I think how thoughtful they were about the development plan for a guy like that speaks to the plan that's happening there. And I think that you've seen a lot of that plan unfold. So you can easily give this to Adam Peters. Part of me wants to now after just having that

discussion. But what Howie Roseman did in the talent that he added to this roster is absurd. Like what they did in one single year, and it's not just the talent. We've talked about this a little bit over the course of the year. But my favorite thing that the Eagles did is they went from being one of the oldest rosters in the league when you look at Snapweight at age last year to now being one of the youngest rosters in the league. They did it in a single offseason. And I think it changes the trajectory of what this team looks like over the next two,

three, four years. So you go out and get Quinehan Mitchell in the draft. You get Cooper DeGine. And then you have the splash signing in free agency to get bring in Sequan Barkley and understand, all right, the market has gone a certain way. if this goes against what people typically expect from us, it makes sense for where we are as an offense. This can take us to a different level in a way that maybe people don't appreciate in the moment. And he was exactly right in thinking that. And then some of the smaller things.

Like getting Zach Bond for a million dollars and having him play like a first team all pro linebacker has been insane. And the other bat that I really love, because I think it's an understanding of your infrastructure and how that can lift certain types of play. players. The Bechtin thing is inspired. Yeah. To go out and get somebody who has that level of physical ability, but has been in an objectively bad situation for his entire career and understand we have Jeff Stoutland, what can we do with this and get the results they have.

I think that shows a lot of foresight. And the last thing, and I would typically wouldn't attribute this to an executive, but I think we know enough about the situation in Philly. The coordinator changes, I do not think are solely a Nick Siriani creation in Philadelphia. you. So going out and getting Kellyn Moore and Vic Fangio and having those guys put forth the impact that they have, I think a little bit of that credit probably goes to the guys upstairs rather than the guys on the sideline. I think that's a good call specifically for Philly because you look at Los Angeles, right? And you can credit them for the coaching staff. But like that's just Jim Harbaugh building the staff that he wants. So it's hard to give that to the executive. But no, I think you actually make a good point with Philly. And I think between Philly and Washington, the discussion is interesting of like, What is more impressive? Taking a 10-win team and like really kicking them into high gear where they feel like they're one of the best teams in the conference again or taking a team that was like completely awful and making them a playoff team. Like Washington's not going to win anything, probably.

But the fact that they are like a serious team when we didn't think they would be as impressive. So I think there's a good argument for both because I do think the better your team is, the harder it is to make it better. Like there's just only so many good players and only so many resources you have. So I do think the Howie Roseman argument is a good one. But I just, I guess I'm still blown away by how Washington. I thought they'd be one of the worst teams in the league and they're not. It's undeniable, the job that he has done. And I think you give it to either one of those guys.

I think, and this is a silly kind of vibes-based argument. With Washington, I just think the scheme on offense has been so good in the way that they have deployed those guys. When I watch Philly, I feel the impact of the. offseason additions they made when I'm watching the game in a way I just don't as much with Washington. And it's maybe even if the high level players, you're not feeling the splash plays from them, that's maybe not the most important thing.

If the entire roster has been turned over and like the complete product is so much better than we expected it to be. So I think you can make an argument either way. It's like, well, yeah, you may not feel the splash plays of a Sequan Barkley from Washington, but they remade the entire team and turned them into a place. off team. I totally get that argument, but I just feel like the individual additions and how important they've been to shifting what the Eagles have been and how varied those moves are, the amount of different places you're getting them from, especially when you're not drafting a quarterback second

overall to make the biggest change. You deserve some credit for that, but you have the second pick. You took, you took a quarterback with the second pick. In a class that had a lot of good options. It's just, it's hard to untangle. But I think that changing what that entire organization feels. like and just the the competence in that building. Adam Peters deserves a ton of credit for that. A couple other guys that throw out, Brad Holmes with another just very good year. The Carlton Davis trade, which is now very sad, but what that allowed them to be on defense, drafting Terry and Arnold, you know, Kevin Zeitler is a stop cap option.

Something like a meek Robertson. Like I just like, the lions seem to do this every year where they have like one smaller DB move that allows them to play a certain way. And I thought Robertson in the slot and allowing Brian Branch to be a little more flexible. That was really, really well done. And then sticking in that division, I mean, Quasi's had an awesome year. I mean, what Gernard has been for them, Van Ginkle, Blake Cashman, the Darnold signing, going out and doing that. Like what they did in a single offseason, I think was really, really impressive.

And then the other one, we talked about him a little bit, Joe Hortiz with the Chargers. Like, I don't give them that much credit for the coaching staff because, again, it's just Jim Harbaugh staff. it's his guys. But the draft that they put together and some of the free agent pieces that they put together, they just, they knocked it out of the park this year. Like, they already have three or four legitimate starters and at least one star in Joe Alt in this draft class. That's a pretty dang good start for this thing.

And McCocky's borderline. In McCocky's borderline, he's really good. Yeah, to go get those two guys and Cam Hart and Tarheep still, who's also been really good for them. You know, they've asked him to play a lot of roles because they've been injured on the, on the back end of the defense. So an excellent first year from that entire front office and from that coaching staff, which I'm sure we'll acknowledge again here by the end of the show. Assistant coach of the year, you could give it to 20 guys. And I'm sure we'll say all of their names.

This is a really hard one. It was midseason. I gave it to Cliff midseason. It still is. Where did you go with assistant coach of the year? So there are some guys I want to give it to based on the fact of just like, this is better than I thought it was going to be, or I just really love watching your unit. Like Liam Cohen is one, where it's like, this is better than I thought it was going to be. You've turned it around, especially the run game more than I thought you would. And I really like watching your unit. However, when I really thought of like who should be the coach, the assistant coach of the year,

it should just be like who's, a lot of it should be whose unit felt the most suffocating, the most dominant, the most versatile. To me, that is probably still Brian Flores. Like what Brian Flores has done putting together this defense, building on what he was in year one with the Minnesota Vikings, like we've talked about playing a little bit more man coverage, mixing up some of what they do up front. They don't blitz as much as you think that they do because a lot of that was by necessity last year. And they've been a different defense. So I just think his ability to consistently adapt, find different ways, be a really good game to game planner. I've just been unbelievably blown away with what Flores has done this year.

he's on my short list and you could easily give it to him. I think the man coverage point is a really good one. The fact that they're a little bit more flexible. We talked about this on the recap show last week. They're number one in the league in EPA for dropback when playing man coverage. You just wouldn't think that based on who they are. But you watch that game against Green Bay and it's just well taught. And you brought up this point on the show and I think it's important to remember.

It's well talked because that's where Brian Flores comes from. Like he has no issue teaching man coverage specifics. You watch the way that the Lions play with Aaron Glenn. It's like, well, that makes sense. Like, that's the way Aaron Glenn grew up. Well, the same thing is true for Brian Flores. He's just gone against type for most of the last year and a half. And I love that.

And I think that with more talent, we've actually gotten to see kind of the next step of this vision and how impactful it can be. I still gave it to a guy that you threw out, though. I gave it to Liam Cohen. He was my second. I wanted to so bad. If you look at the run game, the run game to me is what I come back to. This team last year in Tampa, you know, they were. better offense than we expect it. Dave Canales got a freaking head coaching job. I'm swearing less to

to be bleep less. I'm trying to be more thoughtful about it. Liam, Dave Canellis got a head coaching job. And they were dead last, dead last in rushing success rate in 2023. Where do you think they are this year per next gen? After going finishing dead last last year. In success rate? Yes. They've got to be top 10, like seventh maybe. They're fifth. Wow. They are fifth. They're fifth. And obviously they brought in as good in the first like month and a half of the season. So like over the like more recently, it might even be better than that. The run game is beautiful. When you watch the design of it, it's just so well-schemed.

Bucking Irving's a really nice player. And obviously they bring in Graham Barton. You have Cody Mocken here too. Ben Bredesen has been so much better for them than I expected. But I think the design of it overall and their offensive line coach, Kevin Carberry, deserve some credit. But what they did in that area. And then the other thing, I keep coming back to this, where how do we try to separate design from talent offensively?

It's really difficult. But I think the screen game. is an area where you can do that. And they have been the best screen team in the league by far. So you have the run game that's a lot of design that's very design heavy. You have the screen game that's very design heavy. The way that they've allowed Baker to play, I just feel like some of the subtle improvements, not even subtle, some of the dramatic improvements in subtle areas of that offense from a job

that got a guy, a head coaching opportunity last year, that's what does it for me. I've just enjoyed watching that unit so, so much in a way that I didn't necessarily expect. that I'm willing to give it to Liam Colle. I really wanted to give it. I think if I limit it to purely offensive guys, he would have been it for me. And I do think, one, the screen game is really important. Obviously with this team, they've been one of the best in the league. The overhaul of the run game, it's not just 2023 that they were bad.

They were one of the worst in 2022. Like, this team had a very recent history of being among the worst in the NFL. So the fact that they could turn it around just a couple of pieces on the offensive line, he comes in, he brings some of the, a lot more gap scheme, I think was the big difference for them. They used to be a team that felt like they were just throwing zone plays at the wall because it was like running is a chore and we have to do it. But now it feels like a very serious part of their offense. And I think another interesting part of this, Baker Mayfield is going to have at least 40 passing touchdowns this season.

He has 39 right now. He's almost certainly going to throw a couple more against the Saints. he is he has the fifth lowest intended average air yards like per attempt like he's not throwing the ball down the field and he's going to end up with 40 passing touchdowns because again the screen game is good some of what they do with motion to just get some of these free releases in the flat some of these easy crosses like they've just they've been phenomenal cohen has made it as easy as possible for baker mayfield and really taking advantage of some of the talent that they do have between mike evans and bucky irving yeah it's when you try to separate talent from

scheme. The ways that they've created separation and just how dynamic that offense feels overall, that's why I give it a slight edge over what Washington has done just because I think the dropback game for Tampa is more dynamic than what Washington is bringing to the table. And that stat I threw out about Jaden Daniels and the amount of value they've created on scrambles, that to me is like ultimately what knocks Cliff down just a slight peg. Like what the quarterback has been able to create out of structure and how that's been a breaking case of emergency option for the offense so many times in high leverage moments.

The quarterback deserves credit for that. I think the play caller and the design deserves a little bit less credit for that. But I'm still unbelievably impressed what the Washington has done. Beyond the passing game, their run game and the design of what that has looked like throughout the entire year has been absolutely phenomenal. So I would probably have Cliff as like a 1B. Brian Flores is right there. Some other names think you have to throw out both lions guys.

Like before his unit got decimated, the job that Eric. Glenn was doing was unbelievable. Ben Johnson, you could probably give this to him almost every single year. But I think the difference between what Cohen has done and what Ben Johnson is doing, this is year one for Cohen. To do this in year one rather than being able to build on it over multiple years the way that the Lions have, that to me is what gives him a slight edge. And then a couple other guys, Todd Monkin, and we'll talk about this a little bit later,

I'm more impressed with the construction of the Ravens offense than I thought I was for a good chunk of this year. I think it's easy to get blinded by what Lamar and Derek Henry have been. I actually think it makes me frustrated that he's not a more bulletproof play caller in big games because the designs themselves are unbelievable. Jesse Minter, we mentioned, has done a phenomenal job with the Chargers defense. And I'm really impressed with what Jeff Hathley has done in Green Bay. Just how alive and the back end of that defense feels and some of the disguises and just all the things

they've tried on that side of the ball this year to get the most out of a young and flawed set of defensive personnel, I think has been extremely impressive. It's been awesome. And then even there were still a couple more I like thought about like, Bance Joseph's defense is not necessarily that intricate, but like they were maybe the best in the league. And they have thrown some really good mixups this year. Their front has been way better than I thought they were going to be.

And then Jesse Mintzher with the charges. Like if my if my framing for starting with this was. wow, this unit was way better than I thought it was going to be. The chargers were certainly up there for units. I just did not think that would be that good. This one's going to be a bloodbath. Coach of the year. Who is your coach of the year mid-season?

I think we all had Tomlin. Because I was like, how do they have eight wins at this stage of the season or whatever? And I think some of the shine has come off there. And it's still been a great season overall for Tomlin. I think now at this point, I've moved a little bit off of, I think one of the guys I would have put in that category beforehand, but it's Kevin O'Connell. To win 14 games with Sam Darnold is amazing. We can talk about Sam Darnold a little bit, and he's been a good, like an actual good player for them. It's not like this is just purely a miracle,

but to take a guy who was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks we'd seen in the modern era and turn him into a guy who can maybe go out and win the one seating to NFC in year one of him being in the system is phenomenal. And then just the way they he's put together some of the rest of this coaching staff, like to bring in Brian Flores and do what he's done. So it's just, I think Kevin O'Connell, to do what he's done with this roster, to build to this moment with this team, I'm cool giving it to him. I'm also giving it's Kevin O'Connell. And this is just, it's about more than wins and losses. It's about understanding his role and why this team looks the way that it does.

Kevin O'Connell is the architect of this offense. He is the one that is the loudest voice in Sam Darnold's year. And I just remember talking to Sam Donald before the season about him coming into this year and just kind of the change in perspective that it happened. And we talked about what happened with San Francisco last year and just him being in that sort of offense and that sort of ecosystem where you're listening to a play caller who's explaining to you the intent of why things are the way that they are and what that does for you as a quarterback. And I think that was a really instructive experience for him. And the same thing is true in Minnesota and just what that feels like when you're the quarterback for this sort of. sort of team. Being able to sit there and have somebody like a Kevin O'Connell, be able to so clearly articulate to you what the intent is behind everything we're trying to do and the change that instills

in you as a quarterback, the choices that you're making, the style that you play with, you've been able to feel that. There's still moments where Sam Darnold is going to make a decision that is probably a little bit too aggressive for his own good. But I think that you have felt like a rewiring of his DNA as a player because of what Kevin O'Connell's offense is. is and what sort of influence he has over the quarterback specifically. And you combine that with exactly like you said, he brings in Brian Flores last year. And just that self-awareness of I want something that feels explosive on that side of the ball. I want something that doesn't feel passive.

I want to tap into a play caller that I think matches who I am and what I'm trying to accomplish offensively. That was, I think, a really inspired decision to go out and hire a guy like Brian Fleming. us to run the defense. So that's where I landed. I just think that the Darnold story is one of the best in the league. The Donald story would not happen without Kevin O'Connell. And this isn't just about what the offenses looked like or some marginal offensive improvement. They have a chance to finish with the best record in the entire NFL or the second best. Yeah, exactly. He kind of checks both boxes where it's not just this team is better than I thought they would be, which is usually kind of the starting

criteria for Coach of the Year. But it's also that they, like, you can make a case that they are the best team in the league. I don't know if I would actually do it, but like, they're probably top four. And the fact that you can do that with, again, a team that is quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and he looks like a fundamentally different player, it's hard to go a different direction at this point. Yeah, usually it's, you either pick the team that the best team in the league or the team that overperform the most. This might be both. It might be both. Exactly. The Vikings might be both of those at the same time. You could list off 10 other guys for this. What Jim Harbaugh has done in year one with the Chargers is remarkable. But again, he has just.

Justin Herbert, Justin Herbert's done a lot of the heavy lifting for that offense, but it is undeniable how different it feels in that building with Jim Harbaugh than without. I mentioned this recently out of show, but I was there a couple weeks ago in that locker room and just talking to Derwin James and just the smile on that man's face and how happy he is to come to work every single day. And I had another, I'll mention this because I think it's a good anecdote. I was talking to Deion Henley, who I really enjoyed the discussion that I had with him. And we were just talking about culture and how things change.

and he was telling me a story about how, you know, usually in OTAs and stuff like that, especially when you get in a training camp, they do things like the rookie talent, the rookie singing where you'll go up and sing. They didn't do that. And they just kind of told stories about every position with group would come up and they would have to talk about why they were there and like why playing football in their career was important to them. And he said, like, that made a difference to me.

You know, the fact that that was the first thing that we did, I think is just really indicative of what Jim was trying to create from day one and just really root this in a sense of why this is important to all of us and why we're doing this together. It's a really subtle thing, but when you're in the locker room in LA, they have where they went to high school, where they went to college, and what star recruit they were. And I don't think I've ever seen that in an NFL locker room before. And talking to guys there, they were like, yeah, it sparks conversation. Right?

So like, oh, you were a zero star recruit? Like, how did that happen? Or like, oh, I didn't know you went to that high school or whatever. It's just a way to like kind of spur something with the way that locker room feels. And I think it's a really small touch, but just little things like that, they seem silly. But I think in totality, you can really feel it when you watch this team play right now. That's the most Jim Harbaugh stuff I've ever heard in my life. But it's perfect because I think.

Obviously, all of these coaches love football, right? But I think there is with Jim Harbaugh, there's kind of a different level where he very obviously loves like what football represents the community of football. And so all of those antidotes, I think make perfect sense for a guy like him that he wants to foster that and really bring that to the forefront as much as possible. And it's very earnest. Like it's not with nothing he does his faith. It can't. It can't. Yeah, there's nothing calculated about Jim Harbaugh.

It might be insane, but it's very, it's very earnest coming from him. Dan Quinn has done an unbelievable job in Washington, and what that building feels like, him choosing Cliff Kingsbury to be the offensive coordinator and what he's done, you easily give it to Dan Quinn. You can give it to Dan Campbell seemingly every single year. Mike Tomlin has been excellent. Andy Reid has had another really good season.

The one guy that isn't even listed on the odds for this that I think is insane because if you gave it to him, I think you could make a serious argument, Sean McDermott. What the bills have done in like a soft reset year to be the number two seed in the AFC and have been in play for the one seed if the chiefs didn't have this ridiculous stretch, he absolutely deserves to be mentioned. Matt LaFleur has done another incredible job with the Packers in that offense. And the last guy would throw out, and I'll talk about him again in a second here, Sean Peyton.

I think Sean Peyton deserves a lot of credit for the season that he has had, considering some of the questions we had about what Sean Peyton was at this stage in his career. So that's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine guys. And I think you could probably name a couple more to not piss people off. It's a lot of good coaches in the league. I feel like we used to be at a point where they were like eight and you really needed one of those guys. But I feel like we're at a point now where there's a lot of really good ones. Yeah.

Sean McVeigh and Kyle Shanahan are not on the list. There's a lot of really good coaching jobs right now. All right. Before we move on, we are going to take one more quick break before we hit a couple little gimmicky categories and then get to MVP. We hit these on the mid-season show, and I wanted to hit them again because I think they're just a fun way to talk about the season that was. So your most pleasant surprise from the 2024 NFL season has been what?

There's a couple of names I want to throw out, and it's hard to pick one, so I'm just going to throw them all out anyway. Zach Bonn, and it's not just that Zach Bonn is good. It's that he's literally playing a different position. Like, that was a pleasant surprise to the coach who's hand. him. Vic Fangio got him in camp and was like, that's not a backup inside linebacker. We're going to move this guy. That's not a backup outside linebacker. We're going to move him inside see what happens. And he might make like second all pro team. So the fact that he's been able to do that is

incredible. And then another one to me, Brian Thomas Jr. He's like, I know rookies are always a crapshoots of feeling like they're a surprise is kind of weird. But he, I think universally was billed as a guy where it's like, man, the talent is crazy. But he's so young. This is probably going to take a few years, it's probably going to take some time for him to be not only just firmly good for a rookie, but in historic air where you were talking about earlier, where the only guys who have done what he's done from a production standpoint are, what is it, Randy Moss, O'Dell Beckham and Jamar Chase, literally like three surefire Hall of Fame type of talents. The fact that he's already in there has been a huge surprise to me. And then Darno Mooney with the Falcons. Like the fact that

he's been so good and so consistent for them was like a huge, huge surprise to me. That's a really good one. The Donald Mooney one. That's a really good one. I went more like unit kind of team storylines with this. And we talked about a couple of them already. We no need to belabor this. What Washington's offense has been considering what the preseason expectations for that team looked like. I mean, you can make a serious argument. People did that they would have been, if not the worst offensive line in the league talent wise, then one of the bottom three units. And what they've gotten out of that group specifically, I think speaks to the job that Cliff Kingsbury has done there. and just the ability to really lift every piece that they have had.

So the fact that Washington has been not only not one of the worst teams in the league, but like a sure fire playoff team, not one that's squeaked in, but like from the first month of the year, it was like, yeah, it's one of the best 10 teams in the league, one of the best 12 teams in the league. Like I have no qualms about that. That's shocking to me. And I think that those guys deserve a ton of credit.

And what Jaden Daniels has been, you know, I had my concerns about some of the limitations in Jaden Daniels' game and some of the things I saw as things that might potentially hold him back. Like, again, you know, pocket movement, you know, the ability to kind of navigate that space when pressured. And his ability to make those things matter so much less because of what his strengths are has been so impressive to me. So just everything about his rookie year and his ability to really tap into those superpowers. I've been super impressed by Sam Darnold. Yeah.

You touch on this with the Kevin O'Connell thing, but the fact that Sam Darnold is playing like this, and that moment that he had on Sunday is awesome. And again, even talking to him before the season, I think that you get these guys who get into like their age, 27, 27, 28 seasons and just the maturity that comes with that. And I think second chance quarterbacks in general have been one of the stories of the year to me, what Baker has done, what Jared Gough has done, what Gino Smith has done, and just kind of reframing the way that we think about some of these timelines. That to me is something I'll really remember from the 2024 season. And the last one to me, again, alluded to this in your coach of the year, it's been fun to watch Sean Peyton get his groove back. I could agree more. I just think that I didn't really know what to make of that team coming into the year. And the whole Rust thing last year was so strange.

And Sean Payton for 15 years was one of those guys. We just chalked up as a difference making offensive coach. When you watch those Saints teams play, they were just rooted in the right stuff. It was never the sexiest unit in the league. And obviously, he benefits from having Drew Breeze. But you look at what the Broncos offense has been built on and just how sound it all feels and the past protection plan that they've had from that group. But also just some of the wrinkles we've seen over the course of the year, like the Marvin Mims usage and what their screen game has been and just how comfortable Bo Nex has looked in that offense. probably should have mentioned Bo Nix for offensive rookie of the year.

I think he's a step down from the other guys, but I've been impressed with what Bo Nix has been, and I think that's partially because of what Sean Payton has built with that entire offense overall. So him becoming, again, one of those guys where are you one of those lifters, are you one of those forced multipliers in a positive way? I think he has undeniably been that, and it's been fun to have that version of Sean Payton back in the league. I've wanted it back because his offense is different or it can be different. And like right now it's it's a little bit more of like the Teddy Bridgewaterish stuff that he was doing back in New Orleans.

But he's, I think for a long time and like currently a lot of the top offensive play callers are your Sean McVease, Kevin O'Connell's, Kyle Shanahan. It's not one to one all of those offenses, but there's a lot of similarity. Sean Payton goes about it in a little bit of a different way. And I just think the fact that we have one more of those guys now is pretty cool. I'll say this. I think as we're looking at who we want to hire coaching wise and where we're. we want to pull guys from. The Saints offensive coaching tree has never really, like, germinated around the league.

That never happened. We never hired those guys. For the most part, I mean, Joe Lombardi was really the only guy from that tree to get offensive coordinator job recently. And other than that, they haven't really picked off that tree. But if you look at some of the best offenses in the league this year, there is DNA with what those Saints teams were. Ben Johnson didn't come from there.

there, but a lot of the Dan Campbell did. And then when they were building that offense over the last few years in Detroit, a lot of the dropback stuff they were trying to pull from was inspired by those Saints teams. You know, they had coaches on that staff that were totally fluent in those ideas. And so I think you saw that. Joe Brady comes from that Saints world. And I think that you see some of that influence and what the Bill's offense is.

I'd be curious, if I were looking at offensive coordinators, you know, I would be talking to guys on that Saints staff. I'd want to have a conversation with Davis Webb about like what he's done with Bo Nix and what that offense looks like and why it looks that way. I do think that's an untapped resource as we think about where we should turn coaching-wise in the league. The last thing I want to say just in terms of the Bo Nix thing because I know people are going to be pissed and I'm already like regretting for getting to talk about him earlier. Right. You didn't have to bring it up. Yeah.

So here. I'm looking at the stats right now. Quarterbacks with 100 more drop-hundred or more dropbacks in the league. season. You look at EPA per dropback on those plays. Bo Nix is 22nd in the NFL. That's good, right? Like, that's, that is good for a win for a rookie. Yeah. Yes, that is a win for a rookie. That does not mean your offensive rookie of the year. Jaden Daniels is fifth in that. That's actually good. It's not an end-all be-all statistic, right? Situation matters. But again, the conversation we're having about Sean Payton, the fact that Bonnix has had the best past

protection in the league. These circumstances in Denver have been better that I think people painted them out to be coming into the year. Pass protection lifts the floor of your offense. And I think that that's the type of unit we've seen in Denver. We've seen a floor lifting unit because of the way the lion has played. Bonix has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league statistically when pressured. He's done a very good job.

I think that he's been better than anybody expected. He is not, to me, putting together the type of season that warrants a real argument to be the offensive rookie of the year. I just wanted to say that at some point on this show because I know we're going to hear about it. I think that was measured and kinder than I probably would have talked about it. So, well done. Let's keep rolling through these here. So after biggest surprises, what is your biggest disappointment from the 2024 season? I have two and they're both in the AFC South. And I'll start with a player that kind of like embodies the entire unit and part of the problem. I'll start with Laramie Tunsell was a top three left tackle in the league for a very long time.

And I think this year has fallen back. The best past protecting tackle in football for multiple years. He was awesome. Like just the movement skills, the way that he always knew what the next move was. Like he was just so put together. And this year he's been probably fine. And then like one of the most penalized players in the league. And I think that to me like embodies what has gone wrong with Houston's offensive line as a whole.

and then to cascade off of that what has gone wrong with Houston's offense in general. And so that to me has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season. And then the other one to me is the Jaguars defense. And to me, like the signing of Eric Armstead kind of embodies this. Like he was so, so good in San Francisco for a long time. They bring him in. He's the perfect body type for Ryan Nielsen's defense. And none of it comes together.

Like he doesn't end up being a good player. None of the other players really feel like they take the next step on the defense. they're blowing so many coverages in the back end. So I thought this was a defense that I don't think I put them in my top 10 on the preseason show going in. But I was like, there's an argument for it. They should be a top half defense and they could put something together. And the fact that they've been maybe the worst in the entire league over the course of the year, I think that's been a pretty big disappointment. It's a good one to bring up.

We haven't talked about the Jags in like two months because it doesn't feel like we need to. We'll save those discussions for when they have a new coach. And we talk about what things look like moving forward. but it's absolutely worth mentioning, as you consider the whole season. The Texans offense is number one for me. We've talked about this 100 times. We don't have to talk about it anymore. Obviously, they've had some injuries, but for this team to not be completely torn apart by injuries,

especially along the offensive line, and be a bottom eight offense is wild to me. I just never expected this to be possible. And they need some serious discussions about how this needs to change moving forward, because I still think that C.J. Stroud is very gifted quarterback and what we've seen from him this year and just how broken and aimless it all feels has been hard to watch. Like, it's not just disappointing. It's depressing. And so that, that to me is number one with the bullet. My other one, I think sort of similar. I think a lot of the things I would say about the Texans I would say about this team, it's the Bears offense. Like, I don't think we needed the Bears offense to be a top 10 group this year. But I didn't expect them to necessarily be in a. embarrassing mess. And we've talked so much about this and the blame pie and how this all goes

around. It's a combination of everything. Caleb is holding out of the ball way too long in some of these moments. They are also number one in the league and unblocked pressures allowed this year per next jet. It's how to figure out who's at fault for the Bears season on offense. It's a rich canvas. There's a lot going on there. So how that all changes, I do think there are structural things that can make this feel a little bit better. I do think that having Roman Dunes-A take more of a prominent role, having a better pass protection plan than the one that they had this year. I do think that there are potentially better days on the horizon with somebody like Ben Johnson, if that were to happen. But for 2024 specifically, I think that they are right behind the Texans offense for the

unit that felt the most different watching it week to week than I expected it to feel coming into the year. I think that's a really good one. Like it just, and especially too, with Caleb, I think if you're talking about like disappointment in terms of expectations, just thought he would be a more creative, explosive player, like even with the ups and downs. Like ups and downs, I think, were perfectly expected with a player like this. You knew he was going to hold the ball too long. You knew he would try to make some of these weird plays and do some of this stuff. But I thought you would at least see more of the highs.

And I truthfully thought you would see more of the interceptions where he's like trying to make some of these throws. And he really wasn't. And so that to me was the biggest disappointment. It's not even like whatever the numbers spat out at the end of the season. And it was like, man, he just isn't playing the way that I thought he would play coming into the year. And then like you said, the situation around him, whether it's some of the players making mistakes, whether it's the offensive scheme and stuff, didn't do almost anything to hide or protect a young player. So I think you just got this mishmash where kind of everybody is in the wrong.

And it's, I think, easier to point out, like, who you don't think is that fault that much. How you're changing what you're getting from the quarterback, I think is so complicated. And you want to say, well, it's design. or it's the talent that you put around him. We talked about this with Donald, and I do think this applies to the Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert relationship a little bit. What you're saying to the quarterback

and how you're teaching him to orchestrate the offense that you're feeding him is really, really important. And that's why I think somebody like Ben Johnson, it's not just about the trick plays, it's not just about the X's and O's of the lines on paper. How do I want you to play? The mentality I want you to play with. and how timid Caleb Williams felt for a huge chunk of this season.

I think changing the voice that is really feeding the offense to him, that's how you can get a different feeling of player. And that, to me, it becomes the most important thing. This isn't about, like, guru shit when it comes to, like, this is the, look at what I could do on the whiteboard. And talking to Jared Gough this summer, like, it's a real thing with him and Ben Johnson within that offense. It's just the dialogue between them and how that has shaped the way that he's playing

the position. So I guess that's where I land here. The correct dialogue between your offensive architect and your quarterback is a prerequisite for success in this league on offense. And until you get that right, things are going to look a lot uglier than you want them to look. Football is a game of trust. It's not a solo sport. You have to trust the play caller, your teammates around you, and especially as a rookie coming into it, when you're especially even coming off of a college season where you didn't feel like you could trust anybody, it makes sense why this felt the way that it did in end. Last one before MVP, you want to talk about just the biggest narrative changes in the league.

These for me are, I did players again. You may have gone some other direction with this. I did the guys who individual players, I think, changed the way that I see them the most over the course of this year. Where did you go with this? I did go players in one coach, actually. And you already mentioned him earlier. Sean Payton, I think the fact that he had where he retired.

I'm so glad we both had this. We haven't really talked about him in these terms that much. this year. Exactly. And I think, because I think we were so coming into this season reserved to like, ah, I mean, he retired and the Rusting wasn't what we wanted. And like, is he just too, like, controlling? And it seemed like he pushed Russ out and all that stuff. He gets his quarterback. And whatever you want to say about Bo Nix, he's very clearly, it just felt more reinvigorated about how he wants to put together the offense. And that to me has been like, okay, Sean Payton's back. Check that box. I feel great about him. So I think he's been a big one for me. And then a couple

of other players. Obviously, Sam Darnold is one of them, and I think that one is pretty self-explanatory at this point. And then the two other ones I had, Chuba Hubbard for the Carolina Panthers. It's a great one. They went out and drafted a running back in the second round and we're like, we're trying to replace this guy. And then he just goes nuclear and gets himself paid. I thought that was huge for him. And then to me, Leonard Williams for the Seattle Seahawks, he was a guy where it's like, okay, solid player to have. I don't know if the trade for him was that good. I don't know how well his game is going to age? Like, what are we really going to get here? This year, I was like, dude, the old man strength is doing a lot for this guy. This is a really, really nice addition to

his game. He's 31 years old. That's where you start getting the old man strength. That's where it starts kicking in. And I think, uh, spoken like a man who was born in like 2003. Right. I mean, whenever you were born. 97, which is, uh, you know, it's still, he's, he's, he's not that much older than me. So I should probably, uh, should probably slow down on the old man talk, he's only like three or four years older, but in football terms, he is an old man. And it's, uh, three or four years older, I might as well be dead. I, I should have, uh, should have thought about that when I went into the like the old man's strength, uh, vision here.

It's real, though. It is real. And that's the way that he's playing this year. I think those are all really good. I, speaking of the Panthers, Bryce Young. Yeah. But Bryce Young was left for dead early this season. I was more than willing to say, we did it.

We did it on this show where it was like, well, that was the Bryce Young experiment. We'll see what happens with the Panthers over the next couple years. The way that he has played in the back half of this season, I'm legitimately excited to see what they can do with him in 2025. I'm looking forward to how they try to piece together that offense and what they continue to build with him. I don't know what that result is going to be, but I'm intrigued by it. And I just never expected to land in that place. So I think Bryce Young is one.

The ones out there out, we already mentioned Zach Bonn. Zach Bon to me is like unquestionably one of them. Somebody that when we're talking about this team this offseason, I think I painted him as like, that's a nice find, but I don't think it's like some home run pick. And that was Christian Benford. You know,

they got solid play from him at corner. And I really liked watching him. But I didn't think like, oh, this is, you know, like an elite level player at the position. I think that for where you drafted him,

he's nice. I think I was wrong about that. I mean, he's played, the best football of his career this season. He has the second lowest target rate in man coverage of any corner in the NFL. He is number one in the NFL and EPA per target in man coverage this year. Like, if you look at all of those corner metrics on NextGen, he is up near the top of the league,

and that matches the eye test. Like, I think that he has had a phenomenal season and is playing like one of the better corners in the entire NFL. So even if he was a good story before, this is an entirely different level. Two more bills I would throw out that I think this has been a multi-year-old. thing, but they're playing the best football of their careers and to me have kind of stepped into a different tier of player. Greg Rousseau, staying healthy this year has been huge. We've seen these flashes in the past, but I think he's been unbelievable. And Spencer Brown, their right tackle.

Again, this is a multi-year thing. I think he really improved coming into last season, but watched the confidence he plays with, just the toolbox he has in past protection. I'd never expected to land in that sort of place with Spencer Brown the way that I have. And Nick Benito. I just, Nick Benito has been so, so good for the Broncos this year and for that Broncos defense. I was really excited about the Broncos front coming into the year. That was a unit I thought would be good. But it's manifested differently than I thought. Like Benito has been kind of the star rather than, you know, what they traded Baron Browning.

But just that position group overall and resigning Jonathan Cooper because of how well he's played, I think Benito has been a very good expression of what that group has looked like all year. Yeah, I think Benito is like. the kind of signal for why this has felt the way that it has for them up front. I think that's a really good one. I would even mention, and now that I think about it, one more bill, James Cook was already really good. He runs hard as hell now, dude. Like he used to be great as an explosive guy, pass catcher, all that stuff. He just runs through people now, which like when I, if this is about changing the way I think about a player and what they are, that goes a long way from me. And he,

again, was already a top 10 back, but just like the way he plays is fundamentally different. And think it's been really cool. All right, here we go. Your MVP of the 2024 season, let's talk through it. Here's what I'm going to say about this. You could go either way. I think you could make a very, very solid argument for both guys. And I'm sure we will both make them as we kind of hem and Haw and hedge as part of this discussion. Where did you land on your 2024 MVP? I don't even know if I had an answer to the start of the show. I'm, I think, I think it's still Lamar Jackson for me. And I want to start by saying, I think there was a part of me that when I thought about this award, I think it's easy to think, okay, last year we maybe could have given it to Josh Allen and maybe he deserved it. And Josh

Allen is obviously deserving of this year. And I wanted to make sure that my judgment was not being clouded by the fact that one, Josh Allen hasn't won it before and two, that maybe he could have deserved it last year. And I was just trying to purely think of like when I watched these guys, who is truly the scariest guy to me? And I just, when I watched Lamar, the decision making his ability to almost never put the ball in harm's way. He's only thrown four picks this year. And I know Alan hasn't done that many either, but like half of that were drops and like one was a miscommunication. Like these are just, he does not put the ball in harm's way. And he's still been one of the most explosive players. I think he's taken a step in what he's done in the red zone. We've seen what he's

been able to do against the Blitz this year in a way that for a lot of points in his career was a huge point of contention. He has 0.39 EPA per play against the Blitz this year, according to NFL Pro. That's the best in the league. He's the best in the league. He's been amazing. He's been amazing against the blitz issue. And it was my number. It was the only thing that helped me back about Lamar james. It was the only thing. Every discussion we'd have about Lamar when I was like, I think that Alan is in his own tier, but after Mahomes, it was always what happened when you heeded Lamar up and how you could make him play a version of that of offense. He didn't want to play.

That is going away. He has been the best quarterback at the league on Blitz this year. It's been remarkable to watch. And with that specifically, I remember, and this was the moment I knew it was different was. I don't remember what week it was, but it was like maybe midseason,

maybe early midseason. He hits a throw to Bateman against the Blitz. And you can hear him say, got him. And I was like, oh, he is just playing in a different way than he's ever played against the blitz.

And that to me just kind of spoke to the level that he's, playing at. So I think both of these guys are incredibly deserving. If Alan wins it, I'm not going to be sad about it. I think I could convince myself in 20 minutes that Alan is actually worthy of the MVP. But in my heart of hearts, I just, I thought it was Lamar Jackson. Lamar leads the league in every advanced passing metric. I think he's been probably the best passer down to down this year and what he's done within that offense. He's been unbelievable. My answer to this is you could flip a coin. You could flip a coin and I wouldn't care. I truly think. think you could go either direction with either one of these guys. I wasn't looking forward to this

conversation because of how hard the decision is and somebody is going to feel slighted at the end of this no matter what. And because I felt it was so close, and if you look at it, if you look at total EPA generated, EPA per play, any metric you want to look at, they are neck and neck because Allen's rushing has been much more valuable than Lamar's this year, which I actually think is really interesting. Some of that is short touchdowns, but, you know, Josh Allen's, if you look at first down rate on runs of three or more yards to gain. Josh Allen is the highest in the league among all quarterbacks. Like what he is able to do as a rusher and just how dynamic he feels on the red zone and not just on short yardage, but like scrambles and just the impact he has as a

runner is more pronounced than what Lamar is right now, just out of structure. And I think says a lot about both players. And he hasn't put the ball on the ground at all this year. Whereas Lamar, I love him to death, but man, he'll put the ball on the ground every now and then. He's done it this year. The fumbles, the fumbles is definitely in one area where, like, if you're trying to nitpick that that has been a problem for Lamar, like the overall numbers. Like, it has pulled down some of his rushing numbers because of how many times the ball is hit the ground. Again, I did not, was not looking forward to this. And I felt it was so tight that I sat yesterday after we were done with our meeting to plan the next week, the rest of the week here.

I went up and I just, I went to NGS and just queued up every completion for both of the guys. in total there are 607. They're 300 for Lamar and 307 for Josh Allen. And I just sat and watched them over like a three or four hour period. And I probably watched, of those 607, I bet I watched 400 of them combined for the two guys. And what I came back to, and this is potentially a silly reason to make this decision, but it's something I couldn't get out of my head as I was watching the Ravens offense compared to the bills. the amount of space and open receivers created within this Ravens offense.

I feel like the degree of difficulty for what Lamar has had to do as a passer, it's low enough compared to what Josh Allen has had to do that I would give like a tiny, tiniest edge to Josh Al. And I test on the numbers match up with this. And I think that some people have already made this point over the course of the week. And trust me, I came to this independently. And the argument against this, well, the separation stats, etc., which I really don't care about most of the time.

separation stats are kind of noisy. Some of it has been, well, Lamar extends plays, so that's why the Ravens receivers have more separation. On quick or in-rhythm throws this year, Lamar has thrown two players deemed as wide open, according to NextGen, on 39% of his passes. 39%. The league average is 25%. The gap between Lamar and Mahomes, who's number two, is bigger than the gap between Mahomes

and Jordan Love who's at number 12. That's preposterous. It is a massive gap. And the receiving talent in Baltimore, there are flaws to it. You've talked about this. They don't have a ball winner. They don't have that contested catch guy. But I was so impressed when I went back and watched this at just the amount of space

created from the players that they have. The guy I came away with more impressed than I expected, going back and watching 200 of those Lamar completions, Bateman and what he is. for this offense, I think is really underrated. Like, as a field stretcher and as a space creator, I just was like, oh, man, like, I haven't been given Rashad Bateman enough credit for what he is for this group. And Zay Flowers is a phenomenal separator. What Isaiah likely does on some of those Seattle and corner routes and the separation

that he creates, Mark Andrews is still a really good separator, even at this stage of his career. Some of this and some of these numbers and while Amar is throwing to so many open receivers is because of his decision making. and the timing that he is playing with. This is partially a Lamar stat as well. Like his ability to go to the right option all the time and how on time he has played within this offense

and the mastery he has of it. That's part of this and shouldn't be discounted, but I still feel like the space given to the passing game because of the receivers they have, because of the amount of play action that they use, because of Derek Henry's presence within this offense. It's a small thing, but ultimately I think that's what swung it to me

for in Josh Allen's direction. I don't even disagree with that because when I was trying to put this together, that was like my strongest argument in favor of why I might have leaned Josh Allen, is that I do think the pure passing game is a little bit more difficult on Allen. It is a little bit more you just got to go out there in the gun and be a gunslinger and go make it work. Whereas opposed to Lamar, there is a little bit more. And some of the Lamar thing is complicated because I do think some of that space is afforded

by the offense can be what it is. design-wise because he is the scariest person with the ball in his hands. And so, totally. Like, it's a little bit self-fulfilling in that way. And then I do think the point you made about, you know, he doesn't throw a lot of tight window throws. And so you can say, oh, they're getting guys open all the time. Well, his, Patrick Mahomes doesn't throw a lot of tight window throws either. And they're not getting guys open all the time. It's just a very obvious decision-making thing. But with Josh Allen, I do think there is a level where the passing game is a little bit harder. And I think some of the quick game windows are a little bit tighter. And some of

his players don't separate quite as much, even if I think, you know, a guy like Kalosha Kier is probably the most consistent player of anybody on either of these teams. I do think you get more moments where a guy like Zay Flowers is four yards open, whereas like you look at what he's doing with Keon Coleman or Dalton Kincaid, and it's like, he's kind of just got to throw it at them and pray that they can go make the play. And he does do it a lot of the time. So I will say, I still, I'm like, I still probably slightly Lee Lamar, but this was the strongest argument in my mind for why you would pick Josh Allen.

So I don't disagree with it whatsoever. The throws I kept coming back to every Amari Cooper catch from this year. Like the placement on those Amari Cooper catches and just those being a long handoff. Essentially every time they've connected for a big play, those plays. The Matt Collins touchdown against the Rams where it's just dropped right in for six. It's a small thing. But the wiggle room between these guys and the difference between these guys is razor, razor thin.

So these sorts of things I feel like I keep coming back to. Something that, and this to me is another really important point, just because of we're trying to separate situation from quarterback. Sam Schwartzstein mentioned this yesterday because I threw out the fact that Josh Allen has been sacked 14 times this season in 17 games, 14 times. That has happened 10 times since 2000, 14 or fewer sacks in 17 weeks. Four of those seasons are Peyton Manning. And he's one of the best ever at doing that, exactly.

And that is, we know this. Quarterbacks control the amount of sacks that they take more than we probably like to admit. So you have Josh Allen, who is one of the most dynamic physical specimens that's ever played the position, is now playing at patent manning levels of sacaboids. That's insane. And so on the heels of making that point, Sam Schwartstein from Amazon pointed out, Josh Allen this year is the only player when you combine sack EPA and scramble EPA to have positive numbers. his scrambles have been more valuable than the sacks he's taken.

That's insane. That negative play mitigation on a consistent level is insane. And the Ravens fan response, I've gotten fluent in all of these. I was supposed to have serious, you've seen all the arguments now. The Ravens fan response has been, while Josh Allen has the best pass protection in the league, their offensive line is so good. Their offensive line is very good. Do you know who has the lowest quick pressure rate of any quarterback in football per next gen this year?

It's probably Lamar Jackson. I was going to say Lamar like Bo Nix. It's Lamar. The Ravens Pass Protection has been excellent this season. Ronnie Stanley has played at a really high level. They've gotten a ton more out of Roger Rosengarde than you expected. So if you look at things that account for how often the quarterback is getting pressured, Josh Allen has a pressure to sack rate per PFF of 8%.

That is the lowest mark in 10 years that they have measured. He has a higher pressure rate than Lamar, but he's just refused to get sack this year. So the negative play mitigation, and then you combine that with one more stats throwout, he leads the league in big time throws per pro football focus. So he has taken the least amount of sacks in the league and has the most big time throws in the league. And you combine that with everything else about who he is. Those games against the Rams and the Lions and just the force of nature element to it, combine with everything we talked about and just the window stuff and the separation within the Ravens offense, that's what ultimately pushed it to Allen's. for me. But again, you could flip a coin. I don't care. If you want to give it to Lamar, that's totally fine. But this is where I landed in. Why?

Again, I even feel bad giving it to Lamar. Maybe it's because he's already got two. So that's why I feel a little bit worse about it. But again, I think if Josh Allen wins it, I'm not going to feel bad at all. He's so, so deserving of it. And I think you make a good point. And I think with Allen, it's specifically important because I know we've beat this over the head for years now, but he used to be the most volatile, lightning rod player in the league, where he would lead the league in big time throws, but he would also lead the league in interceptible passes, and he would get sacked a lot, and he would do all the stupid stuff. The fact that all of the stupid stuff is pretty much completely gone or at least

mitigated to the degree that any human can mitigate them, and he is still the most explosive passer in the league without any true stars around him. Like, he has good players around him. I don't want this to be like, oh, he's making it work with a bunch of schmucks. Like, this is a good Bill's roster, but he's making it as good as it can be and as mistake-free as it can be. He's phenomenal, man. And I do think Lamar is a scarier designed runner. I do think Alan is a scarier scrambler, especially as you get closer to the end zone because he's just, he can run through a person at the sticks, at the goal line, whatever it is.

And I do think that makes him a little bit scarier in that sense. I think that's right. And I think when you watch them, that there's a difference in what they feel like as scramblers right now. Lamar didn't scramble that much this year. He was not a scrambler, especially in the rest of them. It speaks to how impressive he's been as a pastor. The fact that we've had a slightly different version of Lamar, and you talk about sack mitigation,

Lamar has taken a few sacks of his career. So every argument that you can make, you can probably make a similar argument for the other guy. It is razor, razor, razor thin. The last thing I wanted to mention here, because I just thought it was funny when I was going back and watching all these plays over and over and over again,

I think one of the reasons I've enjoyed watching both these guys so much this year, and again, I test and the stats both. they are number one and number two in the league in total EPA generated on corner routes. And so the fact that like they've been just channeling my Philip Rivers love and like the style of play from both of them all year, I think has been so appropriate. I was trying to find a reason why it was so aesthetically pleasing going back and watching the way that they've played. And I think that's one detail I did not expect to land on.

I remember very specifically, I think it was the game, their first game with Amari Cooper. But they, they hit like two or three cornerouts to Dalton. Kincade. And we were both like, do that more. That was really good. Like, you should throw more of those. And so that's a hilarious stat to be able to pull where these are the two guys where it feels like they are the best at it. And then again, to make the point of, you know, this building up for years for a player, Lamar was not good throwing outside the numbers for a long part of his career. And the fact that he's now Philip Rivers-esque throwing corner routes, just unreal development from both of these players, man. The last detail that I wanted to mention, because I, again, trying to connect

eye test and stats on corner and go routes this year, Bateman and Zayflowers are both top eight among wide receivers in average miles per hour on those plays. So not even production, just they're moving. It's a silly thing when you watch it though. The verticality that they both play with within this offense, that creates a lot of that space. And so when I looked at the numbers, I was like, oh, that's nice. I'm glad that that aligns with what I'm watching because I think that that vertical push in the space it creates underneath, that has been a huge part of why this offense has looked the way that it has looked. So just one more. I looked at a million different things for this. I looked every single angle possible because I felt like this discussion warranted

that level of care because of how good both of these guys have been this season. And it was almost more frustrating the deeper you dug because you get to one sat and you're like, okay, that kind of favors Allen. And then you get to the next one, you're like, oh, that favors Lamar. And then you get to another one and it's like, okay, the difference here is indistinguishable. Who cares? And you you just, you get through the 15th one and you're like, I don't even care anymore. I'm just going to go with whatever my gut tells me. I was looking at it. How many games did they have with negative and positive EPA per dropback?

How many bad games? Each had three. It's like every single thing. There was a play that Alan hit against the chiefs that cover zero touchdown late in the game where he had to bail to his right and throw a touchdown. Lamar had the exact same play against the Bengals against cover zero earlier in the year. Like it just, it's a mirror image. Like again, you could do it any way that you wanted to.

I'm not going to hedge anymore and explain why my decision was not inflammatory if you wanted to go the other way. But just know that it's not inflammatory. Just have that be the final, the period on the end of this sentence. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be back with our week 18 preview on Friday. Obviously a couple games that are going to take up most of the oxygen there because those

are the games that matter heading into week 18. So enjoy your New Year's Day. Hopefully you guys can listen to this while just sitting on the couch hanging out. We will be back on Friday. Until that, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thank you.