The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Lamar Jackson’s dominance, a test for the Cardinals’ defense and where does the WFT go from here with Nate Tice + Sheil Kapadia’s Week 6 picks

Episode Date: October 15, 2021

Robert Mays and Nate Tice lead off this week’s “Friday Five” by talking about Lamar Jackson’s dominance this season as the Ravens take on the Chargers on Sunday. They also look at the matchups... between the Cardinals’ defense and Browns’ offense as well as the Bears’ defense and Packers’ offense. Finally, after a perfect Week 5, Sheil Kapadia is back with his picks against the spread.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is the Athletic Football Show. The Athletic Football Show is presented by State Farm, because like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Friday, October 15th. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. As he does every single Friday, Shookapati is going to be joining us a little bit later to do our week six picks.
Starting point is 00:00:34 Just a banner day for Shiel last week. Got all three of them right, plus his lukewarm lock. is giving him a commanding lead over the man. I'm thrilled to talk to you right now. Nate, how are you feeling? I'm okay. I'm okay. I'm okay.
Starting point is 00:00:50 How the turn tables, how the turntables, right? And honestly, midgame, how the turntables. They're the one that we were, we were plus one minus one on. The two point swing one was like about three times I was ready to like hit him up and go, here we go, there we go. Just gain another one on you. I don't care about your lukewarm lock, but that's gambling. If it was easy, these casinos on the strip wouldn't be built where I live in Las Vegas.
Starting point is 00:01:16 All right. We're going to dig into our Friday 5 this week. Every Friday, we pick five things. Matchup, game player to highlight, dig into. And we're going to start with a man who is absolutely red hot right now. And that is Lamar Jackson going against Brandon Staley and the Chargers defense. Lamar has been cooking over the last couple weeks. Last two games, 10.3.
Starting point is 00:01:40 completion percentage over expectation completing 76% of his passes while averaging the highest average depth of target in the entire NFL. It's going okay for Lamar right now. That's what happens when you have an offense that has no checkdowns. Literally their offense is Lamar is the checkdown.
Starting point is 00:02:01 So they just have all their routes that either block or you're deep. So that's how you get that. You're pushing the ball. But he is, this past game against the cold, especially watching that back on film it's like so cool how Lamar just throws the ball I guess is the best way I definitely want to dig into that because I completely agree with you it's like I don't appreciate it enough like just how he whips the ball and it just comes off his hand hot he is it's underrated
Starting point is 00:02:28 arm strength I mean that's the best way to put it not only just throwing the ball deep but just pushing the ball but it is it's so much fun to watch him right now not just because of the reasons we usually love Lamar. So I want to talk about that. But before we do that, I want to talk just about what you've seen from the Ravens passing game overall and even just Lamar about how they've evolved. Because I know you were tweeting about making some jokes by other spacing. It's still terrible every once in a while. You know, there are aspects of this that it's not going to look like the Saints offense with Drew Bree's three years ago, right? But even if we don't think it's this highly advanced passing game, what aspects of the way that they're approaching this or just the way he's playing the
Starting point is 00:03:04 position do you think has shown tangible growth that's kind of allowed them to become whatever they are right now? I think it's consistently attacking outside. I think that's the best way. It's taking I I'm going to use the phrase a gimmee throw, but it's not a gimmey throw. It's not like a hitch. It's more like a stop or outrout. And just taking those kind of underneath options, even though when I say underneath more like these six and seven yard gains as opposed to always just going for overs and crossers. And it's they're they're spreading to pass now, not just spreading to run. And it's like a true just old school. I mean, it almost looks like, uh, you're watching Louisiana Lafayette or something like that. Just like two by two, everybody's wide and spread out. And it's just like,
Starting point is 00:03:47 hey, we're just going to spread the defense because they're putting defenses in a bind that way. And I made the joke that Lamar is the checkdown. But it is true. It's go out there. Now that we have so much space for Lamar to create, it looks like a little, you know, like a really good college quarterback where he's just like, all right, I'm going to suck and run. And I just have to beat one linebacker as opposed to everybody condensed into the formation. So I think maybe leaning into that and truly, and I do make fun of the space again. It still is bad. Like I, I am shocked. Shocked. I was, I was trying to be such an optimist opening up watching this game, this Colts game. I'm like, it's week five. Uh, uh, you know, it's all, Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews had great
Starting point is 00:04:25 games. I'm going to watch. Rashad Bateman's coming back. Hell yeah. This is going to look great. And then I watch it. I'm like, they still have shit space. How is this happening? But it's, I think of what it is. I'm telling you, I'm like, Sherlock Holmes in this. I do think it is like they try to like run these concepts that they just put in in a formation that they don't run a lot of times. And it's a past concept so they don't get a lot of reps at it. And also these guys, you get Devin Dovnery like just like closing it and not like running outside.
Starting point is 00:04:53 They just lack details in the passing game. But when you have a Lamar Jackson throwing like he's throwing right now on the move, hitting deep balls, he's, he hit the, he hit the, he, he hit the, he, hit the corner shot to Mark Andrews. That was beautiful. It's just that type of stuff. It's Lamar truly being a true passer, not just play action, not just doing all the stuff. It's, it's really just dropping back and hitting outside routes. That's the improvement I've seen so far. So I want to throw a couple stats at you that I think I like that. So on Monday, without play action, he was 31 of 35 for 350 yards. Okay. Pretty good. The outside the numbers part, I think, is so telling. And you can just see it. Now, I want to get into a couple of
Starting point is 00:05:31 examples, but just the overarching numbers. On throws outside the numbers this year, Omar Jackson is completing 76.3% of his passes while averaging 12.2 air yards per target. It's not just go balls. That's why it's so warped. I want to bring up a specific example. So look at it.
Starting point is 00:05:53 It's 10.74 yards per attempt. Last year, he was completing 62% of those passes and averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. It's a drastic difference. So the example you brought up, I think, is such a telling one. I think it's exactly what they are right now in so many ways. And it's the wheel to Mark Andrews up the right side line against the Colts last week. And I think what we're talking about was spread to pass.
Starting point is 00:06:17 You have Marquise Brown going in an orbit motion from left to right. He's out in the flat. They fake the bubble to Marquise Brown. Pulls up the corner. They have the outside receiver run a post and then Andrews runs a wheel behind it. So you're stressing the defense horizontally. in ways that they're consistently doing right now. It's fun to watch.
Starting point is 00:06:37 Like that area, that spacing is working for them. Lamar fakes the bubble, gets back around, keeps his eyes down field to hold the safety to that side, and then gets back to Andrews on the wheel. And I think it is an example of several different things that are working for them right now.
Starting point is 00:06:55 Play design, great. Lamar, understanding exactly how to take defenders where he wants to with his eyes. Yes. and how quickly he gets back on balance and then throws that strike to Andrews, I think is a couple different things.
Starting point is 00:07:12 His footwork right now is amazing. Yes. When you watch him right now, his base and the way he's able to get back to that base while bouncing around. And how well he's playing, the foundation he's playing with with his feet, it allows his twitchiness as an athlete to come through as a passer. So the way that he can get the ball out so quickly after. resetting and combined with the accuracy, very rarely do we think about how athleticism plays into what you are as a thrower.
Starting point is 00:07:41 With him, it shows up all of the time. And when you combine decision making an accuracy with that explosiveness as a passer, I think that is the complete package that you're seeing right now. That's such a great point. That's exactly what it is. We talk about Justin Herbert in the same way where it's like it's, his is just so rare where it's just that twitchiness though. Yep.
Starting point is 00:08:03 And God, that wheel route, though, yeah, and you're bringing up the exact kind of like what I was kind of seeing too is when he's going downfield or even hitting this intermediate stuff, I would never, and I'm not trying to dog Lamar or what they do here, what the Ravens do. I could never teach somebody what he does. Like if I'm teaching a high school quarterback, I can't go like, hey, I'm going to watch Lamar and you go bounce, bounce, bounce, because that's what he can get away with. But they've made it work, if that makes sense.
Starting point is 00:08:29 They've, they understood, like, when I was. When I was at Wisconsin, Coach Chris, it was me and Russ. We couldn't get any more different end of quarterbacks. And he'd go, okay, Nate, okay, you go one, two, three, and hitch. All right, Russ, you're one, two, three, and bounce. Because if you ever watch a Russ, he bounces up and down on his toes, up and down, up and down. Same thing with Omar. It's the timing doesn't feel off when he does that.
Starting point is 00:08:49 When he's, like you said, he more or less moves his shoulders, gets the safety to move over it and then resets his eyes. And then, like, his footwork is weird. But it's all on time. And he has so much arm strength and such a quick thrower. that ball gets out so quick. It's such a whip. And that just, it just drives over there. So it's such a great point about his athleticism, now getting polished. It's, that's the thing about Lamar, Lamar playing a hard ass offense in college. I mean, had two hots on, I mean, just a very high verbiage
Starting point is 00:09:17 offense or long verbiage and just asks a lot of other quarterbacks. And he actually was legitimately running it. I, that's what I like, I like Lamar coming out. I didn't have to grade him or anything. But it was like, just watching him, you could tell he knew what was going on. And that's watching him now is seeing like, I think they're figuring out like what to take out. Okay, what does Lamar not really read or throw that well? What does he get out of rhythm on? Okay, now it's just only run the stuff that he's in rhythm on. And that's what, you know, I got to get props for doing that.
Starting point is 00:09:44 I got to get props to Lamar to like understanding and speeding up that mental clock that he has. It's just really cool to watch right now. It is a little bit of scheme and it's a little bit of player growth from Lamar Jackson. I think the other aspect of it, where that twitchiness has always shown up to me is in the red zone. His ability to dart throws in ways that other guys just can't in a condensed area of the field has always been really impressive to me. And now I think that Twitchiness is showing up in other aspects of his game. The way he can get the ball out so fast is just so rare. And it actually,
Starting point is 00:10:20 I think you saw it on Monday night, it blends very well with a tight end like Mark Andrews. Because that separation in zone coverage can come late. And the Mars, it's gone. As soon as he gets that little bit of a window when he's sifting and like, all right, where is space, where is space, where is space, boom. And because Lamar can get it out in that way. So watching those two kind of play like a Mahomes Kelsey-esque two-man game against the Colts who play a ton of his own defense was really interesting. And then, but then you combine that with like him hitting in breakers in rhythm on time.
Starting point is 00:10:54 It was just everything you want, like everything you want out of a quarterback he did last week. And the other thing, when you think about sifting through zone and him being, able to kind of find guys late in the down that you can't bring extra pressure and the Colts were trying to contain him in the pocket. So if you look at the numbers, they pressured him on 13 of his 52 dropbacks last week. And the Colt, the Braavs line isn't good. It's not like they have these, this brick wall in front of him. So it's just these things that compound. You can't play man coverage because he's just going to run. You can't bring extra bodies after him. So when you have to have this stripped down version of it and he's playing like this, you're
Starting point is 00:11:36 fucked, man. Yeah. Right. That's how it feels right now is just that you run out of options in a real big hurry. Well, that's where they're spread to pass stuff. And that's what it's, I noticed the same thing. It's like, you can't blitz them. Like, if they're spread, it's like, all right, throw that out.
Starting point is 00:11:52 As soon as they get into that unlock spread with no attached tight end, it's like you got to check out of whatever pressure you, you thought you were about to dial up. because that gives a spread offense and you see the Rams doing it and empty it just you can have space defenders can't hide as much the Ravens we've seen over years and years everything's condensed and they're running all the pullers and everything so if you blitz them against pulling guys like guys get missed the mar has to start creating now it's just simple offense it's like throwing hot he's just throwing little slant hot routes and it's just like all right well that was easy you know it's a great point about it's almost his off platform and how he's able to get zip with just his forearm, almost like Rogers. The ball in a way. He explodes. He had, I want to say an RPO, but I could be blanking. They're backed up.
Starting point is 00:12:38 It was against the Colts. And he's moved to his right and the defender's coming off. And I think he hits Mark Andrews. But how he throws it, it looked like a dart, like literally how you throw a dart. Yeah. How you throw a dart. And that's actually one of my dad's theories. He's always wanted to have a dart tournament with quarterbacks because he, because that's
Starting point is 00:12:55 how you throw is that it's finger down. Yeah. It's one of his theories. He's like, I've always just wanted to have dozens NFL quarterbacks to just have a dark tournament. But I, the Mark could win. I mean, the way that he took that ball, even the touchdown to Andrews where it looked like, it was almost like a jump pass because I think they called like a draw RPO where he looks like a flag football play. Like that's what it was.
Starting point is 00:13:17 It was a flag football play. And that's the, we've seen flag football play somewhere Mark Jackson, right? Like he'd be the greatest flag football player of all time, him and Kyler Murray. But now it's just. this command when we talk about it. We define passing situations. What does he look like? You remove the play action.
Starting point is 00:13:33 You remove just kind of the bells and whistles from the offense. What does he look like? Pretty damn good. That's the answer. He looks pretty damn good right now because he's doing everything that you can ask of him. And it's not the Ravens. I think we have we can all do this is it's not the Ravens run game of old. It's not it's not the offense line.
Starting point is 00:13:51 It's not the backs. It's not Mark Ingram bouncing off guys. It's not J.K. Dobbins back there. It is Wattavis Murray stumbling. And I love Lovtavius, but his greatest strength is his past protector. You know, it's not, it's not like the most dynamic run game anymore. It's like almost like a flip of like what the Rams were last year where it was like, like, you know, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:14:10 It's like they took away the once thing and it's like the other side got better, I guess. I don't know. That was a terrible analogy. But it's, but that's kind of what it is. It's just like they are winning in a new way. And it's the run game's only going to get better as offensive line gets used to it, like it's used to each other. It's a lot of moving pieces.
Starting point is 00:14:26 But it's the fact that they can. can win this way in the passing game. And it's just, it's repeatable. I knock all the, the, the, the, the, the spacing and everything. But what they're doing with Ovar how he's throwing these balls, that's repeatable. So with that in mind, I want to ask you this, this version of him and the way that he's playing right now, how does it impact the way that you see their ceiling and where they fit in the AFC?
Starting point is 00:14:49 Because I think that it's forced me to kind of step back a little bit and be like, all right, well, what does this mean? Like, if they're going to be, if he's going to look like this in this aspect of, of his game. What does this mean for them and what they can do in the conference this year? I mean, I picked them to win the division. But it's like now how I look at it, it's like they're doing it a different way. Yes. Exactly. I still, I feel the same way, but different. Like my results are different, but my process to get there is different. There's a better way to put it. But that's kind of how it is. But I do like the Browns still too. But it's, it's, I think this Raven team,
Starting point is 00:15:22 if Lamar is going to do this, this is impossible to defend. Like this is we, it, it, it's, it's, It truly is a college two-way quarterback, a dual-threat quarterback now in the NFL, but also it's not just like him just like, oh, okay, he's going 10 for 12 for 180 yards. No, it's like he's throwing a ball 30 plus times and punishing you 30 plus times. Like that's, that's not just using his legs. That's saving hits. That's all those little things add up. That's making defense is honest.
Starting point is 00:15:50 So I really do feel good, especially if the defense isn't going to be, I wouldn't say, they're not poor or anything, but just like as dynamic. You know, the Marcus Peters injury hurts and just their linebackers are, eh. So it's with that, it's like it gives them more room for error because Lamar can just truly take over her game. Well, it's an interesting matchup this weekend because you have a quarterback who leads the league in area yards per attempt at 10.7. And you have a defense that is literally built to stop deep passes. So far on the season, the chargers are allowing the second lowest yards per attempt in the league on passes of 20 or more air yards. It's 5.95.
Starting point is 00:16:26 The bills are number one at 5.33. It's. Teams are two of nine against the bills on passes of 20 or more air yards. Makes sense. The teams are completing 15.8% of their pass, those such passes against the chargers. So if you're Brandon Staley, how do you approach what Lamar Jackson looks like right now?
Starting point is 00:16:48 I think it's, so I'm curious. This is, it's like, let me go with how to beat Staley almost like, I know that you know that I know kind of thing. Last week against the Browns, they had a great game plan against this Chargers defense. They stayed in 12 and 13 personnel and they kept the Chargers in base. This year, the Chargers, and this is from Next Gen Stats, have given up 9.7 yards per play out of base defense.
Starting point is 00:17:13 And they've given out five and change, 5.8 out nickel. Guess who loves they play in heavy personnel? Yes, I know. So that's what I'm going with. All right, so that's how the Browns attack the Chargers. Do the Ravens watch that? And now being in Staley's shoes and seeing that, figure out a way to get big nickel and make it work. You know, get your better players onto the field.
Starting point is 00:17:33 They have a couple of good Ds. I get they're not built to win up front. Like, that's just not what they are at this point. They do good things. They limit big plays. They're going to make you work for it, which is going to be good against this past game. I think the Ravens pass game, but it's going to be the Ravens run game now. After we just gushed about Lamar and gushed about how the run game isn't what it used to be,
Starting point is 00:17:51 that is where they have to worry about getting smacked. I'd rather lose that way. I would too. Don't let Lamar hit these chunk plays on you. I'd much rather lose by Latavius Murray and Devante Freeman that Lamar Jackson hit Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown. And that is not what you would have said two years ago, right? And I think that is the, it's emblematic of the transition and the evolution that's
Starting point is 00:18:11 happened and why they've come to a different place. Their passing game was immensely efficient when he won the MVP. I mean, they were dominant. They could burn you, burn you down. But it was an extension of the way that they ran the ball. All of those things that worked in constant. with one another. Now they don't need that to work in concert with one another. Now he can just sling it all over the yard and you, that's what you have to worry about. I would much rather have
Starting point is 00:18:33 them come to the line of scrimmage and Greg Roman said, we have numbers. Let's run the ball. Because if you are doing that and that's where you're going, I think as the Chargers team and that you've already won the first battle there, which I think is really important. You're dictating it. That's what you want to do. And hey, but guess what? Rashad Bateman's coming back to. too. I was going to ask you. Fire it up. I thought it was going to be this past. I thought it was going to be Monday night and just be like, ah, yeah, I'll get to see him. But I guess he's full go and everything. Hollywood Brown breaking news on the Madden stream. Way to go, bud. Made my day. I remember so my, I just wrote a story about Hollywood Brown when he came out of the draft. And I went down to Norman and we hung out for like a day. And I saw his apartment. And just he was 21 years old or whatever he was. And he just had like a rubber made container with the TV on it. That was it.
Starting point is 00:19:27 That was the only college, I was in the apartment. I was like, did you are you moving? Did you move? Like are you most of your stuff coming on and goes, no, this is just how it always was.
Starting point is 00:19:35 I was like, what do you do here? He's like, I just play madden. I was going to say, play video games. To be, to be 21 years old is,
Starting point is 00:19:40 you ever see that tweet? The, they said men will live like this. It would be totally okay with it. It's just like that. It's a lawn chair and a TV like propped up on a box and it's like, it's like, it's so funny.
Starting point is 00:19:50 Yeah. I was like, yeah. You're, most of your stuff gone, you already moved out. No, this is just how it's been, like the last two years. It's like, oh, good, good for you, buddy. All right. Let's move on here. I want to talk about the Bears defense playing against the Packers' offense.
Starting point is 00:20:05 For everyone that, this is so funny, everyone thinks I try to shoehorn conversations about the Bears into this show. For years, people would give me shit because I would refuse to ever talk about them. So I just can't win here. This is a Bears defense that ranks fifth in defensive DVOA this season. So it's a top five defense. So they're playing a very good Packers offense, one that probably hasn't played to its potential if you look at the like the efficiency numbers and things, but it's still a very, very good team. And I just hadn't really watched the Bears defense in depth yet.
Starting point is 00:20:36 You know, obviously watch the games live, but not really understanding what's going on on the back end. I had to watch the all 22 of their defense at all. I wanted to dig into that a little bit. When you watched it this week, what jumped out to you? Anything that would you feel like was specific or? unique that you feel like, oh, man, this is why they're being, this is why they're having success right now. More than anything, I just love how they're getting guys free pass rushing wise.
Starting point is 00:20:59 That's their biggest strength. And yeah, and not even crazy blitzes or anything, like, but just like good, like just good ball. Like, you know, putting Robert Quinn and Khalil Mack on the same side and then putting somebody over the center. And so that way the center can't go, oh, we'll just slide to these two studs over here. So now that, that's just a manipulation. I'll just talk about real quick.
Starting point is 00:21:19 It's an offensive line protection. The offensive line is going to have a three-man slide going to one way or the other. It can become a four-man slide depending on how it goes or five. But they're going to have to dictate. That's where the point is working. And if you put Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn on the same side, well, pretty easy. I'm going to go work to the left. I'm going to help out.
Starting point is 00:21:35 My center is going to slide over there. But then now the bears will just do something simple. They'll just have their nose tackle go right over the center. So now you can't slide anywhere. He's occupied. But that's just little things like that without blitzing. They're unlocking these guys. And also just everyone's just playing playing fast.
Starting point is 00:21:51 They look well coached. Like they pass stuff off like even when they're a man coverage and they're just, it's really pattern matching. I mean, it's a literal term of pattern matching. They understand where the weaknesses of what they're doing. And that's usually a well coached unit that like one or two guys are moving right, right in synchronized unison.
Starting point is 00:22:10 That was, I can't believe I just didn't fumble my words there. But it is. But having those two guys like, they just do it consistent. If it's one guy doing it, okay, cool, that's just a good player, you know, one good coach. But it's like seeing a whole unit play fast and do those types of things. Like, okay, there's something there beneath the hood.
Starting point is 00:22:27 And just a lot of good. I just really like the, uh, how they're opening these guys up and, and getting these guys going and Roquant Smith's playing well. It's, it's a fun unit. I was more, I enjoyed watching them more than I even thought I would. I thought it was like, oh, they played some bad units, whatever. But no, it's cool. It's cool to watch what they're doing.
Starting point is 00:22:45 There, the past rush is definitely the thing that's most notable. So if you look at it, they lead the league in sacks, which is kind of shocking. What did that happen? So they lead the league in sacks, but they're 29th in Blitz rate, which is very hard to do. They have the second highest pressure rate while bringing four pass rushers in the league after the brands. They've had 48 pressures on 150 snaps with four pass rushers. And so that's what they're leaning on because they're not strong in the secondary. They're using bodies to solve that problem.
Starting point is 00:23:16 and there's, we're, we're having seven in coverage. We're playing coverage all the time, and that's how we're going to defend teams. And the way that they even don't get away with that is exactly what you said. Alignment. So they're stunting the front on run downs in ways that they're helping them defend the run. They're, even if the line is good. I mean, they still have legitimate guys there. Akeem Hicks didn't play last week, but you still have Nichols and Eddie Goldman,
Starting point is 00:23:40 and Andrew Blackson's made some plays. Mario Edwards is back now. Yeah. They have a lot of guys. guys there. And so they've been able to defend the run fairly well. And then when they're rushing the passer, there is no way to know who's going to line up where and who's going to come where. The two biggest plays they had, two of the biggest plays they had against the Raiders, the Kalil Mack sack, instead of a T.E stunt where the tackle is the penetrator and the end
Starting point is 00:24:08 loops around, which we see all the time, it's an ET stunt, where Mack is the penetrator and the tackle loops around. And that, the right guard isn't ready for that. The right guard just gets slammed by Khalil Mack and then they're totally on different levels and then Mac makes the play, even though that's not designed for him to necessarily make a play. The next time, it's a T.E. Where Mac is looping around. The time after that, Quinn Mack are on the same side. The time after that, they have an overload front to one side, so it's all one-on-ones. Or it's not really an overload front because, like you said, the nose is directly over the center just so he can't slide. they've just played with matchups and spacing,
Starting point is 00:24:46 and they've made it hard for offensive lines, which sounds simple, but teams often aren't committed to doing that. And they absolutely are. And I think against this Packers offensive line that has a lot of moving pieces, right? Josh Myers is back this week, but he's a rookie center.
Starting point is 00:25:02 You have Ellen Jenkins could play, could not. So you have a left side that's a concern. And even if those guys do play, you have a lot, again, a lot of change out, a lot of turnover. which when you're having to play against the team that runs a ton of stunts and you have to be on the same page.
Starting point is 00:25:17 The communication is important. Like that's the area where they could possibly take advantage this week. And the counter argument is like, oh, well, you know, Rogers is smart. He's going to know what they're doing if they're only rushing for and, you know, that types of stuff. But it's even how they manipulate those, those pressures. And we already talked about it. Like, oh, the guy can't slide stuff. Like how they're using other guys in the end of stuff too.
Starting point is 00:25:37 Like there's a Derek Klasson can put by our side. Actually fun, he wrote about the bears today. So it's actually kind of funny. But he had a clip against the Lions. They side the four guys and they had the DB, and I'm blinking who it was. It was DeAndre Houston person. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:25:52 Pick the right tackle and then Klua McLevoo looks around. So why I'm bringing that clip up, and I know we already talked about how they're manipulating stuff is, that's not set in protections or points or anything. That's just execution. That's exactly. So they still have to execute. That's the thing.
Starting point is 00:26:07 We draw these things up and say, oh, we should be protected. We'll slide right over there. That's the thing. If you have a nickel picking a right tackle for Klu's, little Mac. It's like, oh, shoot, that's, that's pretty scary. Um, that it's so hard. I'm like, it's, it's Aaron Rogers, you know, so it's like, as much as I can love any defense, what they're doing. It's always just like, oh, but they're playing Aaron Rogers.
Starting point is 00:26:24 The thing is, again, this is where the roots of this defense are. They're trying to limit big plays, right? That that's what they do and to penetrate with those four. It's like, that's kind of what you want against a team like Aaron Rogers and the Packers. I mean, we talk, we can talk about the chiefs. We can talk about any good offense. The best way to be the good offense is to win with just four pass rushers. So you give yourself a chance. And I think that's what the Bears' defense can do every week. Then give themselves a chance.
Starting point is 00:26:48 We can talk about the offense all day. But guys speak to the unit if they're able to do that with just four pass rushers. Guys in the back seven, Roquan's playing great. I mean, just he is a rare player. The things they ask him to do in coverage, I mean, he was several times this year just lined up in man-to-man coverage and running back outside and it's just been fine. I mean, he just moved with them. He had a pass breakup against the Raiders where I want to say it was Brian Edwards.
Starting point is 00:27:12 line up in the slot and they took it vertical. It was like, you come across, you fake the over and then you take it vertical. We see it all the time from the number three receiver against linebackers in coverage, especially and they did it in the high red zone. And Smith just runs up the scene with him. They throw it that high, he high points the ball and just goes right through his hands and punches it out. Just perfect football. Perfect play.
Starting point is 00:27:32 And he is, he can do that kind of stuff. He's a really good player. Jalen Johnson is real. He's just a full corner. Like that guy is just a very good NFL cornerback. And I, it's exciting. The rest of it, you're kind of piecing it together. But I do think they're playing well.
Starting point is 00:27:49 They have a couple, they have one buster or two a game where it's just something fell apart. Brian Edwards dropped it last week. He was wide open down the field. It's just a miscommunication from, I think it was Jackson in the corner on that side. So it's not bulletproof at this point. But I do think the guys are playing fast. Like Duke Shelley is playing fast. Just like random nickelbacks.
Starting point is 00:28:11 That's the marker of, is your defense well coached? Are you all on the same page? Are those kinds of guys moving in the same direction as everybody else? And they are. So there's still legitimate questions about kind of the ancillary parts of the secondary. But I do think that they're playing very well as a unit right now. They could have a bad day against Rogers. But this defense is better than I thought it was going to be, especially after the way they played against the Rams in week one.
Starting point is 00:28:37 Yes. Agreed, agreed, agreed. Yeah, the downside, the one. thing is that those busts happen. If you have a heady, if you're a defense that requires intelligence is sometimes someone messes up. It's just it is what it is. When you want to match stuff, you want to pass stuff off. It's one time somebody might make an error. So that's that is the downside of doing that. Otherwise, you know, you'd hope everybody would try to do that stuff. Some to keep an eye on. Akeem Hicks could play this week. He's been out, you know, again, it's the one
Starting point is 00:29:03 area of the roster where I think they're able to sustain some injuries just because of all of the different guys they have on the interior of the defensive line. Mac is still banged up. He doesn't look 100%. He's not dominating people right now, but with the ways that they're deploying that defensive line, it's been okay. I mean,
Starting point is 00:29:19 they're not asking him to roast offensive tackles one on one on the outside. And the other thing to keep in mind with the stunts, I think this is interesting. When you have a backup left tackle, which the Packers, I mean, almost like a third string left tackle. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:29:32 at this point. Jenkins is there, you know, whatever. You can help that guy. Again, if you're playing against the team, even with a great pass.
Starting point is 00:29:39 rusher if that guy's going to be coming off the edge the whole game you're chipping you're chipping you're chipping you're chipping when you're running all these stunts you there's no chipping you can't help a deep a backup left tackle in that instance when that defensive end is crashing inside or looping around and that's the way that the team is attacking you so we haven't seen that become an issue for the packers yet like a huge like a derailing issue this is one of those games where if you can't help that guy as much maybe it comes up a little bit more off That's a great point. All right. Let's move on here.
Starting point is 00:30:14 Let's get to a big game this weekend. Cardinals Browns. Who created this schedule for the Browns? We mentioned yesterday. They're playing like a playoff team every single week it feels like. All right. Why are we talking about this game and this matchup? I want to talk about the Cardinals defense against the Brown's offense.
Starting point is 00:30:30 More so the Cardinals defense because what we've talked about over the last few weeks for the most part, as it applies to Arizona, is their offense in Kyle and Murray. And we've mentioned the defense a little bit. but I wanted to go back and kind of really dig into what this defense has done well and whether it can translate against Cleveland because they're fourth in DVOA. They're third in EPA per play. This is a defense coming into the season that I expected to fall off. They were a top 10 defense last year.
Starting point is 00:30:54 The reason that the Cardinals were a borderline playoff team in 2020 was because their defense was really good. And I did not expect that to carry over. I just thought, yeah, is this real? Like, are they going to fall off? And no corners. Yes, they have no corners. They have no corners. One of the reasons I was concerned about the corners being on the hold up is that last year,
Starting point is 00:31:17 they played this really aggressive, man-heavy sort of defense. And I was like, man, are they going to be able to do that again with these guys at corner? It's been a tweaked version of that. But this is still a defense looking to create splash plays, create turnovers, create game swinging moments. And so far, they've been able to do that. When you went back in and watched, I know you watched the Trey Lance performance again.
Starting point is 00:31:39 What has stood out to you about the way that the Cardinals are playing defense right now? Yeah, it's the coverage is surprisingly sticky. And that's what and that speaks to what they're doing. I think they do teach these guys pretty well about, hey, this is how the offense can attack you from this split, from this look. They at least seem heady. I do think, though, it's like this defense is just like you said, they I still, they, it's slightly tweak, but they are still built on aggression. They're built on splash plays. They are, they are bed.
Starting point is 00:32:07 that you're going to make stake you being the offense before they make a mistake or you're not going to catch their mistake in time. And that's kind of every week I just keep watching. I'm like, someone's going to take advantage of like their eyes and everything. But they, they have team speed. JJ Watt's pretty funny to watch. He's like a true three outcomes like home run hitter right now. Like he bats.
Starting point is 00:32:26 It's such a good comparison. He bats 140 and hits 40 home rods. Like that that is what JJ Watt is right now. Sack TFL or bad? Nothing. Nothing. Daniel Brunskill at one point walked him up. And I was like, what?
Starting point is 00:32:40 Like, what was that? And the next three plays is just teeing off. Like, it's like, okay, there it is. But that's, I don't think I've ever seen someone that is so good at when he makes TFLs, that role tackle that he's able to do on a guy's shoestrings. Like the efficiency has is, when he's in the backfield, that is, it is going to be a tackle for loss. Yeah. Like, it's incredible how efficient he is as a tackler in those moments. That just jumped out to me last week when he's like just shoe stringing guys and gator rolling them like two yards in the backfield.
Starting point is 00:33:12 It just happens more often than I can remember with any other point. You can't remember JJ someone bouncing off JJ one. No, never, never. Because he just goes for the legs. Sweep the leg, Johnny. Like that's what that's what he does just over it. I mean, it's, hey, he figured out a way. He figured out his peanut punch.
Starting point is 00:33:27 That's the, you know, just take out the ankles. But it's, I know, that's a great point. The, but this, this Cardinals defense, it's they. Like there's times even against Stray Lance, and I could tell they're like, hey, we're playing a rookie quarterback. So it's a little bit of a different game playing. But there are gaps in the coverage. And like what I said is they are betting that they are going to get home or they're going to make you feel antsy before you find these holes in the coverage. And I almost think you can attack them vertically.
Starting point is 00:33:55 I do think they've gotten away with some of these teams they've played so far, not really being able to attack them with like a true overposed stuff where they have to pass off. and really attack them down the field. And that's what I kind of want to see this week is maybe the Browns passing game is not going to be dropping back 15, 20 times. But 15, 20. Oh, my God. That's actually a joke right there. But 45, 50 times. But they are going to do enough where it's going to make them translate or make them communicate and talk and actually do those things that I haven't really seen that offense due to them.
Starting point is 00:34:26 But it's like just this, this, this cardinals unit is just I keep going like they shouldn't get away with this. But it speaks to how their blitz packages, like they, they, they'll, mug guys up and they make offenses work for it. It's they're really just making you antsy. That's the best way I can put it. They make you antsy as a unit. They, JJ Watts shooting inside. Chandler Jones is out this week, but even Chandler Jones come around the other end. Then then, you know, Isaiah Simmons is all over the place. And that actually works to his benefits sometimes because you have no idea where the hell he's going because he doesn't know where he's going. But, uh, you know, uh, Zavin Collins, their other rookie linebacker.
Starting point is 00:34:59 It's like his eyes aren't great right now, but he makes plays. Yeah, he makes a lot of place, especially in the run game. Yes, against the run. If you want guys going rogue, they have guys go rogue. JJ is, JJ can get away with it because he's JJ Watt. You need guys like that that can cover up for them. And so far they've been covered up. I think that's the best way to put it is they haven't been punished for this aggression yet. When I went back and watched the minor game, they played most of the first like two drives with three defensive backs on the field.
Starting point is 00:35:28 I can't remember the last time I saw an NFL defense go out with five guys in the front. So they had four defensive linemen and Chandler Jones standing up. And all three linebackers were on the field. And Hicks and Simmons and Collins were out there. And they were just playing cover three behind it. The whole game. It was a really, really weird game to watch. That entire, yeah, that entire game was just, I took it one screenshot and everybody was
Starting point is 00:35:54 within 12 yards of each other on, I don't know, like a first and 10. And I was like, what is this football? I'm watching. Now, the, the, the Tray Lance, wait, with Tray Lancet quarterback, they're running just a, at times not every snap but at times they run like basically a single wing offense snap to the quarterback jet motion and it looked like a wildcat offense but with a legit quarterback and then the defense like you said wasn't the heavy heavy personnel it was it was a bonkers game to watch and then now they play the browns who are going to be in heavy personnel so that's what i'm wondering
Starting point is 00:36:21 is yeah they're going to react in the same way against this browns team that is much more explosive in the passing game because that's what the browns want to do right the browns want to line up i think they lead the NFL in 13 and snaps out of 13 percent. They want to play with multiple tight ends on the field to get your linebackers out there to beat you down the field with explosive plays. And I think they like being able to kind of create that traffic in the middle of the field. Because the Niners are, they use a ton of eye candy with motion, right? And they'll, they'll pull people.
Starting point is 00:36:56 And they did. And there were a couple different plays where they have two pollers and Mitchell's coming out the back door and things like that. But the Browns, I think, though counterplays and the ways that they pull people, it's a huge part of their running game. And I think that that style and the way that they play is a really good test for the way that the Cardinals are playing defense right now. Like if you want to have those linebackers on the field, those young linebackers, how are you going to be disciplined against this sort of run game? Because we talked about that with the Rams. The Rams aren't that type of offense anymore.
Starting point is 00:37:27 No. Like that's not what they are. The Browns are. are like the browns still are this type of offense so that matchup of this cardinals defense in base and this brown's offense in the running game that they still have i mean it's going to be really interesting to watch how many screens do you think the browns hit like because screens takes advantage of poor eyes from the linebackers and so it's that in theory that's where you think they're going to tackle but didn't you have a what's the screen stat for baker right now he's averaging 13.2 yards per
Starting point is 00:37:59 attempt on screen passes. No one else in the league. No one else in the league is more than 8.8. It's 22% of his total passing yardage on the seat. It's the best that they that I can't remember an offense because cool screen games in the past
Starting point is 00:38:15 it's the best. Andy Reed. I think of Andy Reed right. I mean for years years and years and years. Those are running back screens. I mean those are they set up the running back screens. The way that and even when Stifansky was in Minnesota their screen game was dominant. Like they had the best screen game in the NFL in 2019 when he was the office coordinator there.
Starting point is 00:38:33 But those are running back screens. Those are Dalvin screens. Now the ways that they hide these screens in 13 personnel is crazy. It's like it is so cool. Like that guy just sits up at night and just figures out ways like, all right, if I put all the three tight ends over here and I sneak this guy out here, like they just hunt for easy explosive plays in ways that no other offense does. does. Nick Chubb has, has five runs of 20 plus yards on the season. He leads the NFL again in explosive runs. Like that's what they do. They find explosive plays in the couch cushions like no other offense in the NFL. It's awesome watching their run game. I mean, it's like, it's the best. Like,
Starting point is 00:39:17 but that's why they get those explosive plays is it's it's tired is having a workhorse running back. Wired is a workhorse and a scat back. Inspired is having two workhorse run back. And that's what the Browns have. And that's, I mean, but it's just relentless. Isn't it their run game, their screen game? It's just comes. It's just like, oh my God. Okay, we got to stop.
Starting point is 00:39:40 It's second and I got to playoff. You cannot take the playoff. And it's third and eight. You cannot take the play off. And that is, that's the problem. And I agree with you. Just again, back to the Cardinals, just really briefly here. I think their corners have played better than I thought.
Starting point is 00:39:52 Robert Alford's been much better than I. Much better. This year. Byron Murphy didn't play last week. And they were still okay because they played with three. three freaking defensive backs on the field. It's not they, later in the game, they started playing.
Starting point is 00:40:05 Yeah, they're playing. And there are other safeties and corners more. But early in the game, I was like, holy shit, this is insane. So those guys have been playing better. But I do think this is a different sort of test for the reason that we said. One thing to keep in mind, just the guys who could or could not be playing in this game. Chandler is likely going to miss the game with COVID. He's on the COVID list.
Starting point is 00:40:22 The Browns, everyone is on the injury report. Everyone. J.C. Trudder did not practice this week. Jack Conklin is. been banged up. Jedrick Wilson has been banged up. I mean, their offensive line,
Starting point is 00:40:32 which is the strength of their team, they've had a lot of guys in and out of the lineup. And that mattered last week. You know, it did, we, I didn't take it into account enough when I was kind of reviewing the game
Starting point is 00:40:44 and recapping what happened. But when you lose both your starting tackles, like that becomes difficult. So, and there's swing tackles out. Chris Hubbard is also on IR. Yeah, which is,
Starting point is 00:40:52 so you got Blake hands, I have tackle. I mean, I'll do respect to Blake hands. That's a lot to ask a guy who came in. last year is like an interior offensive lineman and now he's just having to play tackle in a pinch. That's a difficult place to be. Luckily for them,
Starting point is 00:41:06 Chandler Jones is not playing, but you still have to, you're hoping that that offensive line get as healthy as possible just so we can see the best version of this run game. Yeah. Yeah. And also it's just one last play from that 40-N-Iers game that kind of like, it's a snapshot of when I keep saying, oh, they want you to make a mistake before they do is that against the 49ers,
Starting point is 00:41:27 they, and Tray Lance, I missed a couple throws, whatever. It was like a third and eightish course. Cardinals bring a pressure. And Trey Lance just hits juice check in the flat. Then Juich gets the first down, whatever. Chandler Jones on the plate was supposed to peel with Jukech. And he just drops into coverage to nobody. And it's actually pretty funny to see a 200, how much does he went out, 265, 270 something.
Starting point is 00:41:48 Like Chandler Jones just running going like, where am I going? Like, and you can tell. And then there's juice check running up the side of the monologue. Yeah. Yeah. He's like, dry. He's like, all right. All right, I'm in coverage here.
Starting point is 00:41:58 I'm in coverage here. And then you can just tell. He's like, all right, I'm supposed to be looking up somebody, but I have no idea who. And it's like, it's juice check over there, man. But it's like,
Starting point is 00:42:05 that's what they bet on. They're like, no, we're going to get there before you can figure that out. But we'll be, we'll be curious to see if they can take advantage of some of the Brown's injuries and stuff. But I'm excited for this game.
Starting point is 00:42:14 I really am. I mean, my assumption, this is not groundbreaking. Screens, running game, wotted up play action bombs. Just one or two guys.
Starting point is 00:42:23 Like, can we sneak Anthony Schwartz out? Absolutely. Come on. I think that's what you just have to bet. I mean, that's how this offense is constructed. But I do think against this defense, that's the way to go about it. All right. Our next one here, I want to talk about what the hell is going on with Washington's defense.
Starting point is 00:42:37 You know, we've alluded to it. We talked about the past rush a little bit. I want to talk about it this week because they're playing the Chiefs. Like, if they keep playing like this, it just feels like the Chiefs can put up 50 in a game they absolutely and desperately need after the way the things have been going. I mean, you can make an argument right now. this Washington defense, which is 28th in DVOA and 30th in EPA per play, is easily the most disappointing unit in the entire NFL.
Starting point is 00:43:04 Like, I don't even know if there's much competition for them at this point. Yeah, because even the ones that you might have been higher on, it's like at least they show them glimpses. Yes. And you're not like, they're not terrible. They're fine. It wasn't like, it wasn't like Washington had a bad Thursday night game against the Giants. And it's like, well, that was just that Thursday night.
Starting point is 00:43:19 Ha, ha, ha, ha. Like, it's like, no, it's weekend, week out, different types of offenses, different situation. So it's like, okay, this is a little scarier. And it's when there, a couple of weeks ago, maybe last week we talked about, we talked a little bit about the Washington defense. And it's, they don't run a lot of coverages. Like they, they run quarters. They run three and they bring pressure. Like, really, that's it. It's a man. Of course. Everybody runs man. But it's not that crazy. And when you're watching everybody else run these same coverages and watching good units, we watch a lot of defenses this week and last week. When you're watching good units,
Starting point is 00:43:51 like the bears who maybe don't have as much talent on the back end guys are squeezed like those routes the space in a route is squeezed and there's bodies around it and it's like maybe completed but it's boom boom and it's it's a tackle or play on the ball it makes it hard and when you watch this washington pass defense it's like there's just gaps everywhere it's like it's a lot of guys flat foot it and so indecisive yeah guys are staring there see the gears turning it is bobby mccain is somebody that has a lot of a lot of experience as a post safety and you watch him right now he's just not seeing it at all and there was against what against atlanta they hit a post behind him and he's playing it's cover
Starting point is 00:44:36 three and he's staring at like a little sit route to his right well the guy's just running past him it's like my man that is not your job like even if even if like first of always eight yards away from you Even if he weren't eight yards away from you, you do not have to be drilling down on this so hard. And it's just watching that indecisiveness, that's what it's so baffling to me. Because they were playing the opposite way last year. Where you had guys that were playing so fast and so downhill. It's like, oh, Ronald Darby is just clearly seeing stuff so well with the way that he's playing. And Cam Curl was somebody that was like that.
Starting point is 00:45:14 It's like, man, they are just firing right now. And right this version of it looks the opposite of that. And it's just kind of bizarre to see. Isn't it? Like even the, well, the James hits a post on them this week or this past week. Yes. It's one.
Starting point is 00:45:28 I mean, same thing. That was a late disguise, right? Like Collins just didn't get back to it. But no one rallies to it. It's like, you got to understand what's coming. You see that over.
Starting point is 00:45:37 You see some eye candy. It's like, oh, they're hitting us over to top. Like heavy play action stuff. Because I think it was a drive starter or like a second, first, first down or something like that.
Starting point is 00:45:45 But it's all the squeeze stuff. The other thing we also talked about too is like, I guess a giant. They're getting crushed by the zone read against Dan Jones. And then it was the next week. Then it's bootlegs. And then the next week against the bills, it's Josh Allen breaking Ketain. And it's like, oh, man, all these guys.
Starting point is 00:46:00 So we've already talked about the back end. That's the front end. Now that's the what's supposed to be the bona fides of your defense. And oh, even the pick. So James has the interception that just, you know, flutter ball, whatever. He's going to taste some hill there. It's four verts, which everyone knows the Saints runs. It's four verts.
Starting point is 00:46:20 no one's carrying Taysam Hill. He's at the number three spot. He's running the over. He's climbing over the top of that linebacker. James gets hit and that's why the ball flutters. That was going to be a touchdown. And same thing. Speaking to the deep safety, I'm not sure who's in the post there.
Starting point is 00:46:32 He's flat footed. And for averts, the quarterback is Todd. You're reading that inside three. There's other rules to it. But you're reading the inside three, which is the bender or the over, the bender and the checkdown. That safety wasn't taking the bender or the over. So it's like if James wanted to throw the seam, he could have hit the seat. It was like, what do you do?
Starting point is 00:46:50 Like, cover something. Like commit. It's like the no one wants to commit on the defense. Everyone's just going to go and like, well, they could do this. It's like a, it's like a coach not going for it on fourth down because all the bad things that could happen. That's like the entire defense right now. It's like they're scared of the bad things that could happen to them. They're playing really slow.
Starting point is 00:47:06 Like we talk about defense is playing fast. They're playing really slow and just not trusting anything that they're seeing. And Ron Rivera came out this week and people were asking me, do you want to make a change? Like what's going on here? And he said, well, you know, it's only four or five plays a game that really is they're swinging it for us. That's not how many of this works. No. They are on a play to play basis, not as bad as the overall numbers would say, right?
Starting point is 00:47:33 Their 30th in EPA per play, they're 18th in success rate allowed. So there is a gap between the big explosive plays that they're allowing and how they're playing down in and down out. But that's not how it goes. They've given up the most touchdowns of 20 plus air yards. the NFL this year, five of them in five games. If you give up an explosive touchdown a game, you're going to lose a lot of games in the NFL. So at a certain point, you can't just explain it away because it's like, oh, if we just don't let that happen, then we'll be fine.
Starting point is 00:48:04 If it's happening every week, then that's no longer applies. So when you watch a defense is playing like this and you, just the indecisiveness, not trusting what they're seeing, lack of communication, how does this get fixed? like what is the most important thing if you're jack del rio which the whole other conversation if you're the defensive staff here how do you start going about improving this what worked last year okay all right all right what worked last year which they haven't changed much that's what's so scary but it's like that's the problem yeah it's that they just ran exact same shit they rolled the ball out and they go hey this is what we're running they're like they're it's like well you got disguise um they have to disguise and actually
Starting point is 00:48:47 just the rules of the disguise. Like just that touchdown that we brought up, oh, we're caught in the disguise. It's like, you can't get caught in the disguise. Like, you actually have to, you know, do stuff after the snap. They create the five, the five 101st.
Starting point is 00:49:00 That's the best thing they do. The best thing they did last year, it's the best thing they do this year. It's creating the five 101s for their studs up front. When you're in that, you're predictable because you just are personnel and the coverage is you can run behind it when you have five guys across the board
Starting point is 00:49:12 against a passing offense or a passing formation. But you're going to be predictable. anyways. All right. So let's just lean into the best thing we do and just figure out every variation we can do off of it. That's what you have to do. Okay, what's our fastball? This is our fastball. Okay. All right. Now we got to figure out what the change up looks like off that fastball. Because right now it just looks disjointed. It's like, okay, I can tell at the snap of the ball, or I'm sorry, not even snap the ball. When the offense breaks and game pass, I've got a third of plays and that first play and I can see the first opening second. I'm like, quarters. Next
Starting point is 00:49:41 play three next play pressure quarters like that's me doing that without no pattern you do that you got to play fast as hell hell yes and then guess who they go against this week Patrick Mahomes and the pissed off Kansas City Chiefs who if you're gonna if you're not going to confuse Mahomes and it's like everyone wants right now go like oh just sit in soft coverages not like this not not like this it's switch dying at the end of the matrix it's not like this like that that is that is what this is it's like this could be very ugly It really could. It could be an evisceration.
Starting point is 00:50:14 And just kind of zooming out for a second. This is the worst case scenario for this team. Because the whole argument about, oh, we're getting, we're figuring it out. Like they're moving in the right direction is the defense is good, right? Like, we got that figured out. We can solve that away. And then the rest of it, you know, we'll see what sort of progress the offense makes. Can the offense be merely good?
Starting point is 00:50:41 good this year, merely average, and the defense is really good, and that's how we'll make progress. There's no progress to be had. The entire point of this offseason, the way they spent in free agency, going to get Curtis Samuel and William Jackson and like, oh, well, we have a stopgap guy in Fitzpatrick, but like, that'll work for this version of us. The whole plan was contingent on the defense being an elite unit and continuing its assent. I'm not saying they had to be the best defense in the league. there's a chance they would get worse according to the numbers this year.
Starting point is 00:51:12 But you still have to be a top 10 unit and make progress and continue to progress forward on that side of the ball for this entire plan to work. Now it all starts to fall apart because now what are you? What are you as a franchise if your defense is actively bad and you've spent money to be really good right now? So they have nothing to hang their hat on. And I think that would be the most frustrating part of the on the field. field aspects of the Washington football team to be clear about that. I know there's a lot of things to be concerned about as a fan of that team. I was going to say that's what I'd be upset about as Washington football fan.
Starting point is 00:51:50 I'd be upset about a lot of stuff on the field aspects. That would be the most disheartening part. Yeah, maybe maybe you can get one of the 10,000 towels they have for Sean Taylor's Jersey retirement. What a disgrace. Like what would an absolute disgrace. Icon an iconic player. It sums it up.
Starting point is 00:52:08 I mean, that really does. Just that, just how they handled that, the Jersey retirement, when they're doing it. Yeah, just that kind of sums it up right there. All right. Our fifth thing here, we want to talk about a couple of Viking specific things. You want to talk about one blitz that they're doing. I wanted to talk about Justin Jefferson because I wrote about Justin Johnson this week. And it's, you know, it was one of those things.
Starting point is 00:52:28 It's so funny, the way that just to kind of let people understand how the sausage is made. And we talked about this a lot. And I just kind of threw it out at one point. I was like, I wonder if Justin Jefferson's good because he's built weird. And I am very lucky and I have a lot of gratitude about this where I have a job that just allows me to see if that's true. So I was rolling through Vikings training camp and I got to spend some time with him and we talked a lot about this. And I talked to Keene McArdo, the wide receivers coach. And I talked to Patrick Peterson as well because he's seen a million different things.
Starting point is 00:52:57 Yeah. So I was like asking him and McCartell said something to me that was so funny. So he was in Jacksonville for years as the wide receivers coach. He said when he got to the combine that you're the Jefferson Jefferson game, out last year. He started laughing when he saw him in shorts. He's like, that's J. Jaylen Ramsey. They're the same. They have the exact same body type. And if you look at it, they're both 6-1, like 205, and have extremely long limbs for how tall they are. So they have the exact same body type, which I thought was so funny because they- Because Ramsey has like 33 and a half
Starting point is 00:53:30 arms. And his legs are so long. He's tall. He's high cut. Yeah, he's high cut. Yeah. So it was so funny. So I asked those guys like, all right. So does the way that his length is and the way that he's built, how does it allow him to kind of get an edge on guys? And multiple people told me that the length lies to you. That's what Patrick Peterson said to me. He said, his body lies to you. Because the ways that he can use that length to both, he gets outside of his frame, but he's short enough where he can have the wiggle, but still dip his hips quickly enough to be explosive.
Starting point is 00:54:04 it. So you have these long limbs that kind of distract you in this weird way as a defensive back, but he's still quick in and out of breaks. And the other thing, and all this stuff is shown up this year, all of it. And the other thing that I thought was so interesting,
Starting point is 00:54:20 two more things that I thought was so interesting is that Peterson said, if you watch him, he doesn't chop his feet when he goes in and out of breaks. It's right up the play foot. It's right off and he goes. So he's chewing.
Starting point is 00:54:34 up more grass than you expect him to because you're not ready for his strides to be that long, and he doesn't chop his feet at all before he changes direction. All of this shit makes him impossible to cover. Like, it just all of these things start to compound. And the other thing I thought was so interesting. And if you go back and you watch the Lions game, there's a perfect example of this. He runs a go ball outside. He's outside the corner.
Starting point is 00:54:58 Good coverage, about 10 or 12 yards down the field. Kirk throws it inside. Jefferson manages to like dip his shoulder and slide under the corner back inside and make the play. So the word that Keenan McCardo used that I thought was fascinating is that he's slithery. Yeah. He has that elusiveness in his upper body where he can kind of avoid contact with his shoulders. And the way that Jefferson said, he's like, I like to play Lucy. Like I just that like I have to.
Starting point is 00:55:33 That's how he looks. I have to be loose in my shoulders because it allows me to just be when I either like create subtle contact or I'm trying to slide away from people at the top of routes. So I want to play high enough to be loose, but low enough to be explosive. And when you hear these things, like this makes total sense. Like it makes total. But when it's putting context and understanding what you're seeing. But when you have it in those terms, it's like, oh, I totally get why he's just such a pain in the ass to deal with. Yeah, it's just those, oh my God, I know all that.
Starting point is 00:56:07 I'm just like sitting here like, yeah, yeah. Like it's the being six one and long. Oh my God, that's such a just a great point because when you usually hear guys are high cut, that's a term. You'll hear scouts use and just you're just body type scouting is those guys are usually 6, 3, 6, 4, 6.5. And you hear it a lot. Usually it's D ends or tight ends just because how the body type is.
Starting point is 00:56:29 I'm high cut actually. But it's when you're 6.1 and like that, like you say, he still has that quote unquote natural leverage of not being a long, gangly guy with low, his center of gravity still isn't high, if that makes sense. It's still not X amount of inches off the floor. It's still at a normalish height. But that's such a great point. And just I always remember a quote Chris Borland had when we were in college and he was
Starting point is 00:56:53 talking about garden this guy named Jacob Peterson. And I think we've talked about this before. But he talked about how Jacob Peterson was like a two-star recruit, like goofy, looking dude like 6-2, 2-3-35. He won't Big Ten tied in the year or one year. Just like, of course he did in the Big Ten. And no one could cover him. Like, he would play like first and second round picks.
Starting point is 00:57:13 And guys, and he ran like a 4-8, I think. The guys just could not cover this guy. And I asked Boron about it. And he goes, because he runs like a duck. And it's just like you don't know when he's going to break because he's like waddling. Yeah. So you're like, and then all of a sudden he doesn't shut, like you say, he doesn't shuffle down.
Starting point is 00:57:28 I'm comparing Justin Jefferson first round pick, broke the record for yards to two-star recruit, Jacob Pearson, last of the month with the Atlanta Falcons. But it's like that same, I always remember those types of guys that are awkward covers. They just, doesn't have to be the fastest guy or the strongest guy. It's just sometimes it's just movement. That's Devante Smith. Same thing.
Starting point is 00:57:45 Yeah. High cut. Not that tall though, like 6'1, high cut and long. And in the same way, he just avoids that contact. I always compare back to Wayne Gretzky and just the fascinates me how guys like that with everybody getting ready, just whack them and just hit him, check them. And they just somehow don't get checked. Like they just somehow bounce away, somehow miss that contact.
Starting point is 00:58:06 But that's exactly what Justin Jefferson is. And it's so funny that one of the reasons I liked him coming out of OSU was that he could block because I'm just like that with my receivers. It's like, it doesn't even matter anymore. It's all the other stuff he does. That's like why I love him. It's like, oh yeah, and he could do that. And he's physical and competitive too. It's like pretty awesome.
Starting point is 00:58:23 And the two things he said to me, if you watch this year, the two things he said to me, he said what kind of building out what he does as a rookie, which was one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen in NFL history by a receiver. there are two aspects of it. It was assertiveness coming off the line and threatening guys vertically. And just that, I asked him, is like, does that just come with confidence? Like, is that just something where, like, when you have a better understanding of how you want to attack?
Starting point is 00:58:44 It's like, absolutely. He's saying, that's not what I have. And you watch, there's a couple plays earlier this season where he's just screaming off the ball, just to eat underneath. Like, that's what he wants to do. And the other aspect of his game that is really grown is his release game.
Starting point is 00:59:01 Like, when you watch, of the hesitation stuff from the slot too he had like a slot fade earlier this year i think it was against cleveland where he just the little hesitation coming off the line is very devonthe adams like and that may seem like an easy comparison all these guys mentioned him first every single one if you talk to a receiver about releases he's the first name they're going to mention yeah so you see guys just copying the stuff he does that little hesitation move he does at the line where it's a little skip that's when you can start putting that club in your bag you grow as a receiver like that's when you become truly dangerous and this all kind of comes back to the idea i think jensen everson
Starting point is 00:59:41 is playing better now than he did last year i think he is a more complete player right now than he was last year which makes him i don't know one of the best like four or five receivers in the league probably he's there i think he's there easily i mean it's just like you said it's not just like big plays in the Vikings offense on a bunch of overroutes and stuff he's winning these like on cop routes he's winning on Colorado routes Colorado is a fake slant return you'll see it in the red zone like he can do it at what you said in this goofy manner that he moves that and it's it's I loved your point because that is something I kind of keep learning and learning about receivers is just making those corners uncomfortable by attacking vertical it's having those plans and your plan of
Starting point is 01:00:26 attack and you compare it too you brought up a great comparison it's just like a pass rusher just having those tools in your toolbox while then you have a spin move or whatever you have your double hand shot same at both positions and it's just like you know if a basketball player or a point guard whoever a wing wants to take out somebody one-on-one you've guys played everybody who's played basketball has guarded that guy that has great handles but doesn't like attack you he just dribbles dribbles dribbles dribbles it's like that little give for you see the guy crossing up like 500 times and your receiver can do that it's not route running and releases isn't footwork and footwork and foot speed. It's how to put it all together and attack with those movements and those tools.
Starting point is 01:01:01 And he's already doing it. And that's what's so scary. It's a year and a half into his career, year and a quarter into his NFL career. And he's super young. It's like, oh, my God, he can take that next step and all these little things are adding up. Great fun player. I'm glad we got to talk to them. Talk about it real quick. All right. You wanted to mention one quick thing about the Vikings defense before we get a shield today. Just a little, a little snapshot of kind of why Anthony bar is important to this defense and also just what i would say the weakness of the spiking's defense and i think it's zimmer's dream it's a bunch of heady veterans and then it's like they have they have athleticism this kind of type of group they have no long speed oh my god like uh t j hawkinson
Starting point is 01:01:42 was running away from patrick peterson on a route one time and i was like oh no patrick like that's not what i want to see how pp7 but it's it's with this uh this play i want to talk about was the third and six against the lions it's about midfield i think the second quarter it was a one by three by the lines. And one of my favorite things to watch on anything in football. And anyone who listens to this podcast, no, is Mike Zimmer Blitz packages. And in this look they had, in the one by three look, it looked like Anthony Barr and Harrison were walked up on the line.
Starting point is 01:02:10 Barr is like about the A gap. Harrison's on the outside towards the tight end side all the way at the line scrimmage. Oline makes the point. We've talked about this with the bears. This is manipulating the point. Oh, this is easy. We're going to work to those two dudes that are walked up on the line. Okay.
Starting point is 01:02:24 This is pretty easy to figure out. next as the after he does the point you can see bar glanced over at kendricks like you're going man like you know like you can just see him glance kind of like in bars it's his first game back so probably can hide this a little bit everybody's like okay okay this is right right so on the snap of the ball right before the snap of the ball kendricks comes through the other a or b gap and then also the nickel mackenzie alexander might be yeah mackenzie alexander i think it was also comes in on this off the slot so kendricks and them free runner uh golf actually does a good job he hits the ball out But this is just why I'm talking about this play, it just sums up this whole defense. They're all so smart. Rashob Breeland knows he's throwing hot. He grinds on the ball. That ball's out.
Starting point is 01:03:06 He goes right on the stop route. Quinticity Fist, great catch. Catches the ball, gets tackled. Fourth and two, fourth and one, lines punt. Great play, but it's like, even if you're not getting home on the blitz, it's just that you're manipulating the offense to do what you wanted to do. They threw short of the sticks and rallied and tackled. boom, done. Off the field. They punted now it's our ball. And I just loved watching it because even on top of it, Harrison Smith's pushing from the lion scrimmage all the way back into the post. And then there's another, oh, and then Xavier Woods, because he's covering the pressure. I'm talking about every single defender what they did on this play. It's going to be great. This is so great without video. I'm sure I'm so glad I'm doing this. But then I just have to talk about this because this is what fired me up was Xavier Woods went over to the slot for coverage. They knew how you beat hot is usually throw a stop or a hitch. and then like an inside fade, right?
Starting point is 01:03:56 That's like a classic hot beat or a pressure beating concept. Xavier Woods rather than like driving on what he thinks is underneath throughout. He started working back because he assumed it was going to be like a little fade or inside fade or anything like that. All this stuff tied together. But yeah, smart defense, one play against the Lions offense that I'm going to hype up right here. But it was it was really cool to see just now I'm seeing it kind of come together a little bit, this kind of veteran defense. But it's like this is the plus side.
Starting point is 01:04:22 Just how smart all these guys are. It's amazing. We talked about it a little bit with Shiel later, but the top 10 defense when you have a group of functional NFL players. It's essentially a guarantee with Mike Zimmer. It's a lot of fun. It's a lot of fun to watch. All right.
Starting point is 01:04:36 Speaking of a lot of fun, it's time to get Shil. All right. It's time now for this week's pick segment. And we welcome just a conquering hero riding in here. Shil Kapadia. What a week for you last week, my man. I thought about just filling up like a pillowcase with $100 bills and waving it around my head.
Starting point is 01:04:55 you know, this entire segment to celebrate the bounce back from last week. But I know how this goes. So I don't want to, I don't want to tempt fate at all. I totally understand that. For people who, if you're listening to this and you don't know what we've been doing all year, more power to you. I'm very sorry. The system that we've had going, the best you can do on your three picks is to get
Starting point is 01:05:18 five points. If you get all three right and you designate one of the picks, your lukewarm block, you can get five points. And that is what Shield did last week. Got all three of his picks right, including the lock, which gives him five points on the week, which gives him a two point advantage on the season on Nate, who went one and two last week.
Starting point is 01:05:39 It's nine and a half to seven and a half on the year. Nate, how are you feeling about yourself over there? Picking against the Eagles finally bit me in the ass. It was I went away from the Vikings, and I was like, okay, I couldn't do that one. I should have actually went on the lines. But it was like, you know what? I'm going to stick with it.
Starting point is 01:05:58 And not only at top of it, like, to add insult to injury, like, shield, it was a two-point swing on it. So it was like, oh, this is not always just like my own motivation, just get like rankled right there. Like I'm just like, I'm frazzled. Just lost the lead. And on top of it, it was like a double down. Like I was saying I knew more than shield.
Starting point is 01:06:14 This guy's a picks call him every week. What am I doing going head to head? Listen, you were, you were looking very good when the Eagles had five first downs on their first 11 possessions. Could not move the ball. Yeah. I was not feeling. I was not,
Starting point is 01:06:27 I would have done like if you would have texted me and said, Hey, you want to make this a while? Yes. Yes. I'm in. Yeah. So watch.
Starting point is 01:06:32 Go tell Mays that neither of these picks count. Let's go. But sometimes you get lucky. I can't believe how much of that game I watched. Like afterwards the stats from that game were just magical in all the wrong reasons. I don't know anybody that was a Bucks fan. I don't really know any Bucks fan. So I didn't know any of it was a Bucks fan when James is the quarterback there.
Starting point is 01:06:52 And I don't really talk to many Saints fans in my life. life. I'm curious, what does it like to ride the James coaster? Like when you had fake money on him and you had to worry about the ups and downs at the James Winston performance, what was that like emotionally for you? It makes you feel a lot. You know, if anyone's listening and you just, what, you're not, you don't feel alive and you just want to spend a Sunday afternoon feeling things you've never felt before. Right, you know, and I didn't get that game here. So it's red, when red zone, someone else said this. I wish I could give credit. I don't know who it was. But when red zone flashes to James, like the variance in what you might see is greater than any other player in the NFL.
Starting point is 01:07:30 You know, he's the one, it starts off with the interception where, wait, was he trying to throw it to that linebacker? And then you get a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. So it was, it definitely was the full James experience. All right. Sheel, after your week last week, we're going to let you kick us off for week six. What is your first? He has honors.
Starting point is 01:07:47 He has honors. It's like golf. He's teed off first here. What is your first game for week six? I'm going to start this baby off with a bang here, and I'm going to steal a page out of the Nate Tice playbook, and I'm taking the Minnesota Vikings minus one at the Carolina Panthers, and I'm making it my Luke, warm, lock of the week, baby, the Vikings.
Starting point is 01:08:13 I don't know if Nate was going to do the same thing or not, but this may stem from me having watched that Eagles Panthers film, you know, 36 hours ago, And I thought Sam Darnold, and it's not all his fault. That offensive line is bad. But when he's uncomfortable like that, it's a disaster. I mean, he threw three interceptions in that game. He was missing throws. He was not seeing the field well.
Starting point is 01:08:35 And they got dominated up front. And so I'm looking at this game saying the Vikings front has been playing well. They've got some guys up front that can definitely make Donald feel uncomfortable again. I think Christian McCaffrey is still doubtful for this game. So I'm going to, you know, I'm nervous about the other side of the ball for sure. You know, the Panthers could certainly make Kurt Cousins look bad. Hassan Reddick, Derek Brown, those guys had great games I thought last week. But I trust the Vikings a little bit more.
Starting point is 01:09:02 And this is one just for sort of the fun of it. You know, you look at Zimmer and cousins at the end of that game, like two lovers who hate each other, but like the passion is still there. So I'm looking like, like I'm looking for an outcome this week where the Vikings win. Maybe they just go up to each other, like slap each other in the face or something. I mean, I don't know where that relationship is going to go. It's one of my favorite things in the NFL right now. But I like the Vikings minus one at Carolina.
Starting point is 01:09:30 They just won up each other week after week. Like, also it just slaps on the face this week. And the next week's close fist. Yeah, I think that's the evolution of that. Oh, my gosh. I could definitely see it being a long day for Sam Darnold. I mean, at this point, that's what the Vikings defense are doing. We did get talked about it a little bit earlier on the show, Nate,
Starting point is 01:09:47 just some of the third down pressures that they're bringing. I mean, Zimmer's at a place now. It almost reminds me of like Sean Peyton, where you just kind of like, here, right, here are 11 guys. Just go. Yeah. And they're sixth. They're eighth in defensive DVOA.
Starting point is 01:10:00 They're sixth and past defense TVOA. They have a functional group of players. He's going to be able to do something with them. And this seems like another example of that. And Sam Darnold against competent defenses this year, it has not gone very well. All right. Nate, what do you got for us with your first one?
Starting point is 01:10:17 I did not go with that game. and I could not go with the going against the Eagles on Thursday night because that, you know, it's Thursday night game. So I have to go completely into uncharted territory. Completely. I am on my own in week six. No,
Starting point is 01:10:32 but I actually, that was my fourth game. If that was the one I actually I was deciding on, I was going to go the same exact way to the Vikings. I wanted to change it up, maybe not pick all the games that we're talking about on this show. But I'm going to go with the Cowboys minus three and a half at the Patriots. I don't always love, again,
Starting point is 01:10:48 betting a road favorite but here I am again doing it. Maybe this is why I'm losing the lead to Sheel. But Cowboys minus three and a half, they're one of the really the best teams in NFL. I mean, not only just their offense and honestly, they can beat you any type of way. I've now watched this team go against varying opponents, varying types of defenses and just always have an answer.
Starting point is 01:11:09 And that's just been really fun to watch. Of course, I'm a DAC fan, but just the whole offense. I mean, the tight ends, the offense align has been playing very well. they're even jelling even more as the weeks go on, especially in pass protection. Of course, the receivers, and they're all playing hard. And then defensively, they're more of a, I think they've gotten away. They've missed some shots so far, but their young guys are playing really well. Osa, blanking on his name, but can't say his name.
Starting point is 01:11:33 So Osa O, their defensive tackle, the rookie defense tackle is playing phenomenal. Randy Gregory looks great. I really like this Cowboys team. It's somehow, they're getting there. Some pubs happening right now, but it's like somehow, I don't think people have truly bought in that this Cowboys team is a legit, and I think there's still that Patriots stigma. I don't think the Patriots are a bad team at all,
Starting point is 01:11:54 but I just think this Cowboys team is that much better and they're rolling right now. So I'm going to go with that minus three and a half. Hated it's three and a half, I wish there's three, but that's what I'm going with and I'm a sucker, just like many, many others that bet in Vegas.
Starting point is 01:12:06 Where do you think the Cowboys sit in the NFC hierarchy right now? If you had to rank them, where would they be? Three. You think three after Arizona on the Rams? Oh, no. I'm putting Arizona. Arizona four.
Starting point is 01:12:20 Oh. Oh. Yeah. So who's your top two? I go Rams, bucks. And then three is where I go there. And then I go Cardinals Packers are kind of like T4.
Starting point is 01:12:31 That makes sense. We'll see what the Cardinals. They're going to keep bite me in the ass too. I'm going to just keep saying that phrase because that's what it is. That would be just going against the Cardinals week after week. But I would say you just right there. I think they're the third best team right now. That's how they're playing.
Starting point is 01:12:43 Yeah, I agree. I mean, it's consistent. The reason I ask the question is. if they were going to be anything, they'd be higher than that because of how well they're playing right now. So I was curious, the bucks were kind of out of mind for me just because of all their defensive injuries. But I can understand wanting to put them in there as well. More of a long term. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:12:59 All right. What's your second one? Yeah, I did. I picked the Cowboys also in my column. And that was, you know, you were talking about your short list. I had that on my short list. So I think the Patriots are getting, you know, just too much respect for, you know, the defense is fine. But going up against that offense, in terms of trust, like I don't know, just a week.
Starting point is 01:13:17 a week. Which offense do I feel like they're not going to have a stinker? They're going to play well. The Cowboys are on like the very short list for me. So I do like that peck. All right, this is the shield Capadio will hate himself Sunday afternoon weekly pick of the week here. And I'm going to go. I did see a Giants fan tweeted us and say he's going to start referring to them as the fighting Joe judges like I do. So I'll just call him the fighting Joe judges, baby. You changed the world. Plus nine and a half at home against. the Rams. Are the Rams a better team? Yes, obviously the Rams are a better team, but this is a big number. I need you guys to rule on this. I did want to make this contingent on Daniel Jones playing.
Starting point is 01:13:58 It looks like he's going to play. He had a concussion last week, but it looks like he'll play. If he doesn't play and the line changes, I can give you another pick, but you can rule on that at some point. But I was thinking about that Thursday night game with the Rams. I don't know, I think this is spicy take. If Jared Gough plays the game Matthew Stafford play, on last Thursday night. Is he just the butt of every joke on Twitter the entire night? I mean, the interception in the end zone, missing guys. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:14:26 I didn't think he played great. I know he's got the injured finger, so I'm not going to crush him. He's been very good this year. But that was just, I was like, do I make this public or do I let this live in my head? And I decided to fire. I will simmer. I think the early part of that game, that's entirely fair to say, he missed several throws.
Starting point is 01:14:44 But there are a couple throws in the second half. that he can make that Jared Gough just couldn't make. I mean, the throw to Cooper, that slide and catch that he made, I understand that if that's a better throw, it's maybe a touchdown. But even out of empty, they hit that in that sort of vertical way, it's just a version of this offense that never existed before. There are moments where it's uneven, yes. But I still think that over the course of that game,
Starting point is 01:15:10 you still saw glimpses as to why Matthew Stafford is a better option for this team and why their ceiling is different with Matthew Stafford. I get what she'll say, though. Yes. That's exactly it. And then the second half, though, it was like, then there's like three throws on exactly what Robert's saying, like a third down or like second and 25. And rather than take the check down and then it's like, oh, that's a nice 10 yard game, good job.
Starting point is 01:15:31 It's like he's pushing the ball, 25 yards on a dig. And you're just like, oh, yeah, that's why they have Matthew Starr. How many deep sell routes did they hit that? That's not a part of their offense over the last two years. No, no. Yeah, it's great. I'm just trying to get a Nate's head. You know, I get the newsletter where he's talking up Stafford.
Starting point is 01:15:48 I'm looking for a way to kind of, uh, to kind of get at him here. But you know, I know. I try to be good and not read your picks column until after. And I try to be good. I don't want any group thing going on. I don't want anything. I don't listen to a lot of podcasts during the week. I listen to a lot on Friday because I just don't want jumbled thoughts in my head
Starting point is 01:16:05 for us. So I can lose on all these picks. And so, you know, I'm throwing it out there. You're right. I have shown a little bit of love to the Rams on the substack. So maybe you're right. And the Rams defense, I mean, you know, it's, it's been fine. I don't think it's, it's been great.
Starting point is 01:16:20 You know, you could even say it's been a little bit below average by some of the metrics. And Cadarius, Tony, like, I mean, I've never, like, watched just one game of a guy and my total opinion has changed of him. Now, I don't know if he's going to be fully healthy, but it's, like, rare to see a rookie in just one game where you're like, wow, that guy does have, like, an unbelievable ceiling that I did not know was there. So all of a sudden, if you're like a giant, You can talk yourself into, man, if they can just get some of these guys healthy,
Starting point is 01:16:48 like if he's going to be that good this year and Ghaladay's healthy, they're banged up. I don't love them. I still think the Rams are better. And I think the Rams are going to win. I just thought that's a big number at home for a team that might be able to move the football a little bit. I think it's totally fair. I mean, if Joe doesn't get hurt last week, I assumed that game looks a lot different
Starting point is 01:17:04 as well. So, all right, Nate, what you got, buddy? What's the second one? Yeah, it felt like that line, too, was like baiting people like me. They were like, how man, the Rams are getting dominate them. But it's like, that's a lot of. points on the road. My next one, and now I'm going to wait.
Starting point is 01:17:18 I'm going to wait for my, I don't want to spoil it yet. But I'm going to go with the Chiefs minus seven at Washington. And this is kind of, this is a get right game for the Chiefs. I mean, it's an old kind of saying, an old kind of like angle, I guess. You can say in gambling, it's like, which team needs a win? And it's like, well, yeah, the freaking Chiefs need a win. You know, these other AFC teams are starting to pull away and start to establish themselves. And while I'm not the one in a.
Starting point is 01:17:44 If anyone that follows me on Twitter knows that I am not the one that's throwing up my hands about what Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are doing. I think they're more than fine. I think they're eviscerating people. It's just kind of like some unluckiness. I think that's all that's happening right now. But I also on the flip side, I think this Washington defense does have a lot of faults right now, especially after, you know, Robert and I talked about just studying them even deeper. You're like, ooh, this is not just surface level. This is this is not too good right now.
Starting point is 01:18:11 I wish this line opened at six and a half went to seven so that's not great one over the seventh threshold but it's like I just think this chief's team is way better than this Washington team on all facets and that I love Hank heineke I love a couple players on Washington they do some nice things but I think this chief defense is not going to be threatened enough throughout the entire game by it and I think this chief's team just going to like throttle them because they hear the noise too and this is a proud team you can tell it's a bunch of proud players so I think some of that human element's going to come into this game. I mean, Chiefs minus seven. Based on how those two teams are playing, especially Washington's defense, which we talked about. I mean, if it was like to keep it within seven, Washington needs to score at least 33 points. I mean, the Chiefs walking away with anything less than 40 here feels. Yeah. And then you get one turnover, one, you know, we love them.
Starting point is 01:18:59 We love them. He'll give it to you. He'll give it to you. Unless he'll give it to you. A less talented Ryan Fitzpatrick with the same mindset. That's always a good thing. What did we end up with? David, David Blaine Street, Street Magic.
Starting point is 01:19:11 version of right yeah i'm i'm with you on the on the chiefs offense by the way i mean i know like all right or have they been as prolific as previous years no but the bar is so freaking high for them i mean they're first in epa per play their fifth and points scored per game and mohomes is first in q br it's like if some bounces go their way they can reel off like six in a row where they're just putting 40 on people every week like i mean any you know i think sometimes numbers don't always tell the whole story but when you have the top ranked offense and the worst defense like i don't know it to me it like it's not that hard to figure out where they need to improve a little bit yeah this is that i test numbers history you know there's a lot circled here
Starting point is 01:19:50 all right chia what's your third one bud all right last one i am going with the cleveland browns at home minus three against the undefeated Arizona cardinals i i just think you know on the surface you look at this line and go man the cardinals keep getting no respect they cover last week week against the Niners. They go on the road. The previous week is underdogs and beat the Rams. But I just still really believe in this Browns team. I mean, they were going blow for blow in an amazing game last week against the Chargers. And you look at them as sort of one of the most complete teams, I think, in the NFL, even though their defense didn't play great last week. And then I look at that Cardinals game. And Nate, you really could have gotten that one. You know, the 49ers
Starting point is 01:20:35 drive into Arizona territory on eight of nine drives in that game. Like, they were just these high leverage plays, four downs at the goal line that were all going their way. Like I think if you play that game 10 times, it's going to, you know, it might be half and half. I don't think that was a game where the 49ers played poorly. So
Starting point is 01:20:53 the Cardinals' defensive metrics are pretty interesting. They're third in EPA per play, but there's this, I don't know if you guys look at success rate. It's just like on a play-to-play basis, was it a win or a loss basically based on EPA? And they're 25th in success rate. So that kind of tells you that, whether it's
Starting point is 01:21:09 turnovers, fourth down, these high leverage situations, they're coming out on top, which great for them. I mean, those still count. Don't get me wrong. But when you're trying to look at, look ahead and say, all right, is that kind of thing sustainable? It may not be. So I like the Browns in this game. I think it's going to be a good game, but I think they're going to win. It's only minus three. Like you, I wish this guy, you know, minus two and a half would make me feel a little bit, a little bit better. But I like the Browns in this game. Nate, what do you got for me, buddy? I love it. I almost spoiled it. But I have the exact same bet and that's my pick of the week my lukewarm lock of the week let's go cardinals
Starting point is 01:21:45 baby let's go i know and i almost spoiled it with the last fix so now i feel like a johnny come lately but yes it did open at minus two and a half and it's like oh i loved it i loved it minus two and a minus three whatever and i i do i trust this browns team more just everything just shield just said robert and i talked about this earlier with the defense and stuff it's i i do think this browns team getting clowny back i believe he's he's still a little bit banged up and having him back helps the cardinals don't have chanler jones uh he's out with covid so that's another thing it's it's there's a lot i don't have their roster though it's still there are questions but every single guy the the browns injury report right now
Starting point is 01:22:26 it's like 14 guys j c treter did not practice cream hunt did not practice nick chubb did not practice miles garrett limited uh judevian county did practice jeddrick wills did not practice Jack Conklin did not practice. Denzel Ward limited. I mean, their injury report right now is insane. So just keep that in mind as we're picking rounds here twice. I am. Yeah, lukewarm lock in the week. This is going to go great.
Starting point is 01:22:50 This is going to go great. I know. This is win-win for Sheal. But honestly, with this, with this, it's just, I watch that team. I watch this run game. And the Cardinals' weakness, I've said it like four weeks in a row now is the run defense. They've just got like they're more of a, it's a high variance team. It's a good team, but a high variance team that's just dodged a lot of bullets so far.
Starting point is 01:23:11 So it's kind of cool to hear she'll say that stat. It's kind of like that kind of backs that up. But I just, no one has truly punished him as they had or the one team that I thought could, the Rams had a bad game script. So I just, that's more what it is. It's almost like weeks long. I finally get one time getting out of the right side of this. Well, I got the Vikings one a few weeks ago.
Starting point is 01:23:29 But it's, I do think this Brown team's just a little bit better, even if, you know, the Cardinals are undefeated. I think this Brown's team's real good. I think this Carlos team's real good. but it's a good matchup for the Browns. They just, they just, it is. It is just run game wise and just defensively. I think they can keep stuff underneath on Kyler.
Starting point is 01:23:46 And, you know, with Clowny is playing and you got Miles Garrett there, I think they're going to create some edge rush and be athletic enough to stay with Kyler when he tries to do his, his fun stuff on the outskirts. But yep, me and you, Sheal. Browns, my, is three. All right. So, she'll, your lock is Minnesota. Yes.
Starting point is 01:24:04 Yours is the Browns. People keep that in mind. We will come up with things that these do have to do if they miss these. She'll narrowly escaped with riding James Winston last week to his lukewarm win. Hopefully one of you guys will get this wrong and have to do something embarrassing or just overall. Not fun. All right, guys, that is up we got. As always, thank you very much the time.
Starting point is 01:24:28 I look forward to this every single week. I hope you guys do as well. Thank you very much for listening. We will be back on Sunday night with me and Nate. or Monday if you listen to the podcast version. In the meantime, if you guys want to check out the Football GM on Saturdays and get that on the Athletic app
Starting point is 01:24:44 or on the subscription content on Apple, I highly recommend you check that out if you have not already. Until then, please enjoy your weekend. Please rate and review the podcast. Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. I wrote about Justin Jefferson this week,
Starting point is 01:25:00 as we discussed earlier on the show. If you guys want to check that out, I would really appreciate it. We'll be back later this weekend. Until then. Talk to you guys soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.

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