The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Lessons learned during the 2021 NFL Draft process with Dane Brugler & Lance Zierlein

Episode Date: April 27, 2021

The Athletic's NFL Draft podcast 'Prospects to Pros' with Dane Brugler and Lance Zierlein join Robert Mays to discuss some big takeaways from the process of scouting the 2021 NFL Draft class, from no combine to lack of game tape, weird measurables, intangibles and more.Join our NFL Draft Night Special this Thursday! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBGVWXVtGZcSubscribe to The Athletic and get an exclusive discount, Dane's Draft Guide and more at theathletic.com/footballshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays, really excited about today's show. Lance Zerline and Dane Bruegler are going to be joining me to talk about just some big picture takeaways from this class. I feel like we get bogged down in the specifics of the players and judging them as prospects so often here in the final weeks and months before the draft. I wanted to zoom out and talk about what we can learn from this entire class. Those guys watch hundreds and hundreds of players. I felt like it was worth the time to dig into that knowledge and dig into that experience.

Before we do that, though, wanted to remind you guys about the live draft show we have coming on the athletic on Thursday night. Me and Nate Tice are going to be coming to you guys live starting about 930 Eastern after the 15th pick. It's going to be on Twitter, YouTube, the athletic app, look for a push notification. Dane is going to be popping in and out every few picks to give his insights like no one else can. Lindsay Jones is going to be joining us to talk about a couple big pictures. league specific things. So please come and stop by. I'm very, very excited about it.

We're trying something. I hope it works. It would mean a lot if you guys would come spend the time with us. For now, though, I'm thrilled to welcome the co-hosts of the prospects, the pros, the pros podcast, draft experts for both the athletic and for NFL.com. Dane Bruegler and Lance Lerline. Guys, thank you very much for doing this. I sincerely appreciate it.

It's draft week. This is exciting, right? Yeah, I'm pumped. I can't believe you guys have time to do it. So thank you very much. I'm sure you have 10 million things going on. So I floated this idea to Dane last week. And you guys do such an incredible body of work during this process.

I mean, if you look at the beast and the draft guy that Dane puts out, it's an unfathomable amount of information. And that all of the hundreds and hundreds of profiles that Lance does. And I wanted to try to tap into that work in a big picture way. You guys have such a unique brand of knowledge. And we've talked so much about these specific players and the course. quality of these specific players. But I wanted to zoom out a little bit and take a bird's eye view at both this class and the process of evaluating this class to see if there were any big picture takeaways

that we might be able to talk about, just where the sport is going, things that you can't really see until you look at this whole group of players at one time. So, Dane, I'll start with you. If you were just kind of writing down what you'll remember the most about this draft class, not even just the players, but the process. What would you say your number one take away from it has been? I would say one of the toughest aspects of scouting, just in general, is separating reasons and excuses.

And that is something that we encounter every year, especially with quarterbacks. I mean, I think my entire Jordan Love scouting report was basically trying to decipher reasons and excuses. But it stood out a lot this year with the pandemic and, you know, a potentially special group of quarterbacks. You know, Justin Fields was not very impressive against Northwestern, but he was missing Chris Olavé, who had a positive test. Is that a reason or an excuse?

Zach Wilson, you know, his tape was up and down a little bit versus Coastal Carolina, which was the best defense he faced all season. The fact that that game was scheduled 48 hours before it happened, everything that goes along with that, reason or excuse. And then Trey Lance played in one game last fall. Wasn't his best game. There was obvious rust.

The fact that there was maybe. be a little bit added pressure because he knew it was going to be the only game that season and his final game at the college level reason irks you so you know you look at all these quarterbacks and you're trying to separate reasons from excuses and it's tough every year but especially so this year when you factor in COVID and how that affected the season it's so funny how quickly I adapt to these things the way we talk about this stuff like oh he opted out of the college football season he only played one game they played a game 48 hours before they had originally scheduled the game. In my mind, it's like,

oh, yeah, that's just what they did last year. It's paradigm altering. This stuff has never, ever happened before. And maybe I'm an exception, but it's so funny how quickly I get used to talking about it in these terms. Lance, how about you? Would you say that there is one big picture idea that you walked away from this process with? Maybe that's a lack of what, maybe with the lack of a combine did, the lack of information you had. Just one thing that you'll remember most from going through the last nine months or so. Yeah, I really do think it's lack of information in general. The lack of the combine has really, what I'm finding out is it's really, they've had a medical combine here in early April, and some teams that I've spoken with don't

feel comfortable now with the information they got on some players, and because they don't have more time, you know, usually you get that in February, you do your homework, maybe the player gets retested with another specialist, and there's not the same turnaround. There's not the same turnaround. There's not the same time. And so I think the inability to have a combine is going to hurt some players with injury red flags. I think me trying to figure out where the injury red flags stand up. Like, is this enough to cause a player to fall out of the first round or not? That's a lack of information because it's an unknown. A player's ability like Gregory Rousseau, where is he now? Where is he body typewise compared to where he was in 2019? And can he rush from, you know,

from off the edge? And that wasn't a great. Pat, you know, Jason Owey, why did he have zero sacks and only five the year before these great traits? Like, it's just there's so many unknowns. I have never in my life seen so many unknowns from the tape to the 2020 opt-outs, to the medicals, to some players not choosing to do certain things when it come to their workouts at pro days. This is the year for a lack of information. and projections beyond what any professional team should ever have to project. Like, hopefully it will never be that way again for a team to be this relatively in the dark because I'm definitely in the dark, but I can tell you, I can promise you now, Robert.

Teams are also in some ways in the dark because they haven't been able to go into the schools and do as much digging around on the information and the personal, you know, the personal character of these players. and so we don't get as much information on our end when we dig around with teams. So I think it really is the lack of information, and it starts even before the combine with the inability to get into the schools as often as the teams would like. I think that part's key.

This area scouts not being on the road in the fall, that just sets the stage. I mean, because most of the time, the hay's in the barn by January and then especially by February, where we know all these prospects are puzzles. And we have most of the puzzle. puzzle pieces by January. We get even more after the combine. And so, you know, by March,

we have almost a complete picture. This year, it's so, everything's so much later. And I mean, even the simple things, like verified height, weight length. We had to wait until March in the pro days to get that. Usually we had that from the previous spring, you know, but not this year due to COVID. And then, you know, the medicals, that's like Lance said. I mean, we're the not happening until April. You know, we're still, you know, this morning getting a text about a player. that, you know, we didn't really know there was a, there was an issue. You know, Terrace Marshall, his knee was flagged. These are jolieri, some teams have an issue with his knee that could cause him to fall.

You know, talking to scouts these last few weeks, they're going into these meetings, these final meetings that are usually kind of cut and dry at this point with their fingers and toes crossed, just hoping they don't hear about a injury, something the medically related that came in late, that now they have to take a player off a board. or it's just something that the doctor flagged or the trainer. So it's in normal years, like I said, the puzzle pieces, we have them by January and then definitely after the combine. This year, it's just we're still scrambling to put these puzzle pieces together

here the week of the draft. Lance, do you think the teams are going to be a little bit more risk-averse because of this? Are there going to be more instances where a player is just off a board because there is some murkiness about the medical situation? Or do you think that the risk appetite for some teams that might be willing to take a swing on that is still there. No, I've talked to teams about a couple of players, one with one with some off the field concerns and one with a medical. And I think it depends on who the player is. What I found is if the player is talented enough, they're willing to take the risk.

That's kind of my thought too. It doesn't matter the year. Sometimes it doesn't matter. But because there's so many unknowns on so many layers of players, either through their tape or who they are as players or medicals or whatever the case may be, teams, I think, are going to opt in on really talented players in the first round and worry about it later. If you're not quite as talented, like I'll give you an example. So I love Jason O'Way. Love Jason O'Way. But, and he doesn't have any medical issues that I know of. Aziz got Aziz O'Jaleigh. You don't have any medical issues when you're a cyborg set from the future. It's hard to have any medical issues there. Exactly. But because you're not sure, because you're not sure,

he's a great tester, but you're not sure on the tape. You don't get these guys. So a position coach used to be able to get their hands-on players, and there's some of that at the pro day. But when you had your 30 players in on your individual visits, you can have your D-line coach get in there, and I want to see you do this. Show me this. I want to teach you this, and I want to teach you this, and I want to see how you respond with this. That's not there. And so if you have any questions about guys, whether it's medical or playing-wise, and you're not sure borderline first, they may not go off of projections like they usually do because of traits. They may just say, I want the talent, the guy that I know for sure has the talent.

And so a guy like Jalen Phillips, for example, who has wrist surgeries, who has concussions in his backgrounds, who has some other off-the-field concerns. He's so talented that I've had teams tell me he's just not getting out of the first. In another year, if you had answers on the other players around him, yeah, he might fall out of the first. But not this year. Not this year he's not going to. He's going to go into first. There's also the exact opposite.

There's also the exact opposite. Where it's if there were other pass rushers or was a stacked class, maybe you could wait on somebody like that. But if he's the most talented guy at that position, maybe pushes him up a little bit in a way that he wouldn't be in another class. Yeah, but Christian Barmore is clearly to me the most talented defensive tackle. And he could fall out of the first. Yeah.

And it's tough because it's, defensive tackle is obviously a weak position this year. So will a team that knows, you know, they need to address defensive tackle, will they take that chance? I had someone with the team last week mentioned those 30 visits specifically as the biggest issue with this process, not being able to bring those guys to your facility to see if they mesh culture-wise, just to get to, you know, get to know the person a little bit better, not just a player.

You can do extra medicals on these visits. You know, missing those 30 facility visits is huge for how a lot of teams operate and how they decide who to draft. A lot of teams will invite players and then after they leave, they cross them off. It's a way that they can eliminate guys from their board. That missing part of the process is something that's looming large with a lot of teams. So let's get into some more nitty gritty here, not just the big picture stuff, but a couple specifics about this class. Dane, would you say there are two or three observations? whether it's a scheme or a trend or a positional specific thing that kept making its way into your notes.

Just every day it seemed like you wrote down some variation of it. When you look at offenses, and you evaluate the quarterback position, college offenses are based on trying to make it as easy as possible. And it's not the job of- What a concept. Right, exactly. But it's not the job of a college coach and a college team to develop that quarterback for the next level. And we see more and more of that, whether it's, you know, read-based offenses, RPO's, heavy RPO's, it does make it tough.

And you want to see, when you evaluate the quarterback, you want to see the full inventory of throws. And that's just, it feels like you're getting more and more difficult based off of play style, what these offenses are doing. And so, you know, it's just, it takes, you have to watch more and more tapes, which, you know, you need to watch as much as you can anyways on these quarterbacks. But you need to watch almost every throw they make just to get that full inventory of passing. A lot of these offenses are a very defined process. You look at what Mack Jones was asked to do at Alabama. It's a defined process. Same thing with Trevor Lawrence and Clemson.

They still have to make the reeds in the throws. I don't want to make it sound like they're very simplistic, but it still can make the evaluation difficult when you're trying to find that full library of throws. And Lance, I don't know if you agree with that or not, but to me it feels like it's just becoming more tougher and tougher as these offenses try to make it more simplistic. It is. I mean, it's so tough. It's ironic that, you know, the quarterback with the most NFL ready background from that standpoint is Trey Lance. Yeah. And the one who at the least amount is probably Trevor Lawrence. Now, Lawrence has all these high, I'm just saying from a, from a standpoint of how Clemson runs their offense. Their offense is created. And Ohio states and really all of the, you know, so many of the offenses now. They're created to be streamlined and to take advantage of weaknesses.

If you go watch Art Bryle's offenses back in a day at Baylor and then all the offshoots of that in the different places, they would literally run. This is how simple it was. Oh, okay, this wide receiver, Corey Coleman is really fast. Their corner is a four or five corner. The rest of you don't even run. Take one step and then it's going to be go route versus one man coverage and we'll beat you that way. Well, that has nothing to do for the quarterback in terms of an NFL, you know, reading an NFL defense. It has nothing to do for the wide receiver with being prepared for the NFL either.

You know what it does do? It puts a crap ton of points on the board in college football. And so I think it's interesting that Trey Lance is a full field reader and his preparation is unbelievable. Trevor Lawrence, who I think is going to be able to do everything he wants to in the NFL. But his offense is not geared or designed to have him go full field read. That's not what they do. And there's nothing wrong with it. By the way, I'm not bashing it at all.

The proof is in the pudding. Ohio State, Clemson, these teams are always in and around the playoffs, always. But it doesn't mean that their quarterbacks are the most NFL ready. And I do recognize that more and more people are saying, well, maybe the NFL needs to just implement the college game. And I actually am one of those people. I actually say that. I think the fact that RPO has made it in full time into the NFL, I think the next thing is you're going to have to start simplifying for some of these quarterbacks

because it's just unfortunately you have to dumb down the offenses because when you dumb them down, they're also incredibly dangerous. And yes, there are going to be teams who now with Lamar Jackson are playing chess. And if you don't eventually play chess with them, it's going to be hard to win. At some point, the mental part of the football game, whether it's the offense coordinator or the quarterback, or whatever the case may be, you're going to have to counterpunch when things get difficult and they show you things that you haven't seen. That's the danger of running an offense that is a little too simplistic.

But the danger of running an offense that is too complicated is that you're going to put your quarterbacks in a longer runway to learn the offense, and it may take them longer to operate with the efficiency that your offense really needs. I want to take into quarterbacks in a second, but Dan, I wanted to ask you, Is there any other position that you feel like this came up a little bit? I remember talking to DJ and he said he wrote, you know, quarter turn a million different times for every single cornerback just because of the amount of quarters is played in college. Is there anything that you've seen? Because offense, I think it's so interesting that you say that, Lance, because I do think that there's been a convergence a little bit, right?

There has. The old conversation was that it was difficult to evaluate spread guys. And now we see spread concepts that have filtered into the league a little bit. And I do think for the most part, NFL coaches have been better in the last five years and the, they probably were in the previous 10 about folding in concepts that make the game easier for their young players because they understood them in college. There's still a gap, obviously, I want to talk about that. But I think on defense, it's been less talked about and less explored. So, Dane, do you think that there's any sort of quirk or gap on the defensive side that consistently came up

as you were trying to project guys from one level to the next? Yeah, and I think Corners is a good example because of just how they're used. I mean, you look at, there's some schemes, Alabama, Georgia. They're running a lot of man-heavy stuff. And all those guys are going to get drafted. Right. Yeah, exactly. It drafted in the first two rounds, no question. But there are other schemes where you look at Northwestern and Greg Newsom. And, you know, you see a little bit of man, you see a little bit of zone, which, you know, every NFL team runs some variation of both man and zone. So, you know, you're looking for guys that can play both. But, you know, you're watching Greg Newsom. And it's primarily off coverage. You know, he'll creep towards a line,

but you don't see him jam. A lot of guys are in bail. it does make it tough when just what they're asked to do. It's not that they can't jam. It's not that they can't mirror and match, but they're just not consistently asked to do that with how that specific scheme is run. So corners, I think definitely that plays a part. Safeties especially as well, just there's some safeties you watch. And it's just the most boring tape you've ever seen.

And, you know, Jordan Fuller was like that for me last year. Yeah. Watching Ohio State. It's just boring tape. And you just have to understand what they were asked to do. what his responsibilities were and focus, especially when you're watching that end zone view, you're trying to focus in on his eyes

and understand, okay, what's his vision, where is he looking, what are his keys as he's processing things mentally, and you're trying to slow down the tape as the offences, playing itself out and watching the safety to see how he's reacting. It can be tough with safeties to get exactly down what the thought process is

and what they're being coached to do. I feel like safety is, there's like a goal rush happening. Because if you dig and you know how to sift, it feels like the value proposition of having a really good safety. And if you stack up like positional value according to PFF war, which we can get into that in a different conversation. But if you look at it, safety's pretty high on that list. Where safeties go in the draft and where you can find good safeties, I think that's the biggest gap between how much value a player actually gives you and where you could find a really good one. I mean, look at the safeties in this class. It doesn't look like there's one slated to come off the board until the late first or early second round.

When in reality, exactly. And Jordan Fuller was a sixth round pick. It just feels like that is a place where there's buried treasure to be found in a really interesting way. And I think for a lot of the reasons that you're talking about, because the best guys at that position don't necessarily leap off the tape with the way the sport is played right now, both at the college level and the NFL level. Lance, is there a position or two that jumped out to you when you were watching? We're like, man, for whatever reason, these little quirks have just given me a hard time getting a handle on how I feel about these guys. Well, I feel like it's always safety because you've got, and here's the thing, you have so many players now. And it's not a negative.

It's just like Elijah Molden, Javon, Javon, Holland. You've got some Jemar Johnson. These are all guys who are, I still don't know where you put Elijah Molden if he's a safety or a corner. But there's so many in college. Those blurred lines too. Those are a huge part of this. Safeties versus nickel versus corner versus like it's difficult. Money linebacker.

Yeah, that's how you're having to play it now. You have to play it. There's so many four wide receiver sets that you have safeties who are talented playing over the slot. But that doesn't mean, so the first thing that Dane and I have to do is we have to determine, okay, they are lined up over the slot and you can act like that's a positive unless you don't think they can do it on the next level. So you have to determine can they play against a certain type of wide,

receiver, if they get matched up in space, do they have that ability? And if not, can they guard match up tight ends? Do they have the ability? Are they too small to match up on tight ends? So it's become tougher with safeties because so many safeties are asked to cover the slot. So many safeties are basically, they're no longer single high. They're no longer a split safety. Look, they are basically down there in coverage, but you know that's not going to be what they're asked to do in the NFL. Is it a trait or a skill that they have that could be beneficial? Absolutely.

And I think it is with Javon Holland. But now I've got to take all Javon Hollins' tape, which a lot of it is as a down safety or even as a nickel. Same thing with Elijah Molden. And I've got to say, okay, how do I project him to different types of schemes, or is this how I'm going to have to envision him as a draft prospect? And Divine Diablo is the same thing. I heard a team tell me this week from Virginia Tech.

He's a 220-pound safety who, frankly, is probably, going to be a linebacker. Based on the conversations I've had, and I'm trying to determine, you know, where he's going to get drafted. I'm doing that for NFL.com. I put draft projections up there. And I've understand now he's going to be a two slash three, somewhere in the late second to early middle thirds. And it really is going to depend on how the team envisions him. So as we have in basketball, in baseball, in football, if you follow all these sports, you know that lines have truly been blurred on starting pitching, on the openers in baseball where a guy will pitch one or two innings, in basketball, where you have guys who are almost positionless. They just are, you know,

it's an amorphous position situation. In football, what used to be tweeners are now called hybrids, and it makes it more difficult to try to put them into a box. I don't want to put players into a box. I don't think you should do that. But at the same time, you do have to have a home base. Like when the rubber meets the road, what position does this guy play in our base packages? That has to be determined at some point. It's so funny because like you said, the cracks show up in some cases where they don't in others. You know, the Cardinals have tried to pick positionless players in the first round and even into the up later rounds seemingly for the last five to seven years and they've had trouble. They've had trouble finding roles for those guys.

But then you look at other teams and they love the fact that a guy could play safety in one situation money linebacker in another or he could slide into the slot from safety all those other things so it's almost like it's a virtue in some cases and a drawback in others and you don't know which is going to be which and that's what makes it so terrifying and it makes you reconsider what positional depth on depth charts looks like because do you need three safeties now do you need four corners now and i think that affects where you're going to be looking for those players which takes me to my next question here dane what would you say in your mind is the most interesting consideration or question that's crept up about positional value and

scarcity and where teams want to find guys in this draft and how they're going to strategize. Yeah, and that's, it feel like, you know, we kind of look at this differently every single year and because each draft class is different, obviously. There's an identity at each position and certain positions are valued over others. And I'm going to kind of take this a step further. and when you're a team, how do you forecast forward? So, I think a great example is, okay, the Bengals this year. And this isn't necessarily, you know, should they draft the receiver or the tackle? It's not necessarily that conversation.

But when you look at this tackle class and how we think it stretches, should that affect who they take at five? Because they feel like they like the tackle options in round two. Should that creep into their decision making? Or when you have a top five pick, should it just be, I'm going to take the best player. I'm not going to allow who could be there in the second round affect who I draft here. I think that is a fascinating conversation because on one hand, I understand why you would forecast and look forward because you want to look at, okay,

what positions are the strongest in a given draft? And so I want to maximize each one of my picks. I want to come away with the best collection of players. So if I feel like tackle will stretch more so than another position, then maybe I'll take. whatever position in the first and get my tackle in the second round, which usually isn't the case, but maybe in this year it is. Or do you say, you know what? The tackle is our highest graded player here. Let's take the tackle because we just, I'm not going to allow what could be there in the future effect what we're going to do now. And so I could really see it both ways. And so, I mean, Robert, Lance, I want to hear kind of how you guys feel about how you would

attack that type of situation. I've thought about it for so many hours. specifically in regard to the bangles. And I tend to lean the first direction you talked about where let's not let it affect me. Because I think that falling into pre-draft evaluations for players and the hit rate on those guys specifically is dangerous in its own right. If you think I can find a starter on the offensive line in the second round, I just think that's dangerous talk period.

I also think that not even projecting forward into the second round, but projecting into other years. What is the case over a five-year period of which players are hardest and easiest to find. And I think for the most part, you're going to land on tackles being harder to find than wide receivers. And that's where I tend to drift when it comes to Cincinnati specifically is, I just think about how hard it is to find a tackle in any given draft beyond the first round and in any given free agency class. It's really, really, really difficult. Look at what just happened with Orlando Brown. It took the 23rd overall pick for the chiefs to trade for Orlando

Brown. Orlando Brown is nowhere close, I think, positionally in the hierarchy. to where a player like DeAndre Hopkins or Stefan Diggs would be that were traded around this time last year. They took the same thing, and those guys are better players at their positions than Orlando Brown is. I just think it's hard to find those guys and other through free agency or eventually in the draft of the trade market, you're going to have to pay a premium. That's why I drift that direction. Lance, where do you come down on this? Well, so I think it's, I think what Kansas City did is an interesting case study because they know they need to tackle.

and basically they measured, okay, who will be there available for us? You have to try to read the board. Who's going to be there available for us here versus Orlando Brown? What do we give up for Orlando Brown? It ended up coming out to what amounts to when all the pluses and minuses are added up from the trade between the two teams. It amounts to about a 45th pick of the draft. So basically they said, we like Orlando Brown game ready right now with the 45th pick

as opposed to reaching for a tackle, which based on my evaluations, I believe a tackle at that position is a reach for anyone at the back end of the first. I personally see it as a reach and I don't like the value there. I think you can get a better football player there and a better value on a football player in your second or third round pick. So I think that I actually do believe in the concept of really having a feel for the board. and when I say Phil for the board, it's really positions. Like I can tell you where the run on, where I believe I can tell you where the run on certain

positions are going to be this year based on grades, based on NFL draft history, based on the flow of understanding the writing 400 plus 500 draft prospects in talking to teams, you get a feel for where the flow of the draft is going to be at certain positions. And so if you have a feeling for that draft flow and you understand that your draft needs are somewhere inside of there. And you know where those positions are likely to go and you have a good feel for what the rest of the league is, then I think you do take that into account. I think you do take into account we can get wide receivers in the third or fourth that we like a lot. So we're not going to reach here in the first round. Or we're going to get another position

that's a weaker position. I think you have to balance out every season's board. And for the first time in a long time, I had a discussion with a league executive who said that they are looking. actively at what the board is for a certain position next year, that they feel like they've done enough homework on their board, that they have a good feel for this position next year, and that they may weigh that into their draft day decision, which is rare that you will hear a team say that they will do that. So I want to talk about the quarterbacks a little bit, and not even the specifics of the guys of this class, but what you learned while watching them, would you say there was a

overarching lesson or big picture lesson you took away from evaluating the quarterbacks over the course of the last year. Yeah, you know, it's tough. I mean, quarterback is obviously just an impossible position to feel 100% about because we don't know. There's so many variables. And obviously, we try to hit on what we feel is the most important traits. And, you know, you go in order about, okay, decision making, accuracy, you know, poise, whatever your list is. You try to go through and you try to, okay, they check in the box, are they close to checking the box? Are they deficient in that area? You try to just go through. And it can be really tough when you don't know all the information, especially in a year like this.

You look at the offense. It's like we hit on before how some of them are just with the defined reads and what they're asked to do. It could be tough. With Mack Jones and Trevor Lawrence, I think it was along those lines. And then you have, you know, Wilson, Fields, Lance. They're all doing something a little bit different. And, you know, but they're all incorporating movement, boots, sprints, play action. You know, you watch that BYU offense.

you're seeing Andy Reid influences. You see some Sean McVeigh influences. With Ohio State, when I got done studying Justin Fields, I was more impressed with Ryan Day than I was Fields. And that's not meant to be a dig at Fields at all. It's more about Day's vision and his play calling, his ability to scheme open receivers, create vulnerable matchups,

which allows Fields to execute. And a lot of times, he executed at a high level. Because when things are on schedule and, you know, he sees it, he could rip off accurate strikes down the field. I think one thing that I think might have been a little bit tougher this year, I thought was the way I was taught with quarterbacks is you want to try to evaluate as many drop eight situations as possible.

Obviously, those are situations where there isn't a ton of pass rush, but there's eight coverage defenders forcing quarterbacks to account for more bodies, more outcomes, and really alter their process. And I feel like those situations are tougher to find because we're seeing more and more defenses either attack or we're seeing the quick game being such a big part of what offenses are doing. So it's just seeing less pressure on these quarterbacks. And so I think that was a common theme with all three of these guys.

But I mean, above all, with these quarterbacks, it comes down to intangibles. That's what, you know, I think I've learned most about the quarterback position is how important that part is. You know, go back to Josh Allen, you know, coming out of Wyoming. Plenty of inaccurate throws on his tape. Plenty of, you know, just what are you doing on his tape? but I know there are bills and a lot of other teams were really bullish on Josh Allen because of the intangibles and because of the physical traits. And I think this year we're, and maybe it's part of the Josh Allen effect, I think we're seeing more and more teams willing to gamble on intangibles and just the raw traits.

Because, you know, if you have the size, athleticism, armed talent and you're a bright individual, we'll figure out the rest. I think a lot of teams. And that's, to me, that's a Josh Allen effect. You know, bring them to me, bring them to us. We'll coach them up. We'll take our swing with a guy like that. And I think this draft has a lot of those guys with field. Not a lot, but that's talking about fields, talking about Lance.

They probably fall in that category. So it's just, it's a really interesting group of quarterbacks. Lance, what would you say? What would you say is the thing you've learned about the position more than any other as you've gone through the process with quarterbacks this year? How, I think, number one, just, just the mad dash to put so much love on every quarterback. It's just, it's kind of crazy to me. I mean, watch all these.

I don't, the phrase this isn't. Are you saying Zach Wilson isn't the greatest quarterback that's ever lived? This is just what we're trying to say. An elite group of quarterbacks. What an elite group of talent. No, it's not. Stop using the phrase elite and generational. Please.

I mean, please stop throwing elite and generational on everything, guys. And I'm talking to the media, too. We've got to stop saying that stuff. in general. I try to stay away from the phrase elite, because that is a big, big deal to me. If you say somebody has generational anything or elite anything, unless you've not watched sports for very long, then you must not have any concept of what elite looks like and what generational looks like. And look, I love the fact that Zach Wilson can make those Aaron Rogers throws. Let me tell you how this works. Aaron Rogers has been his favorite player for years and years.

When he's in his backyard or on the football field or whatever he's doing, he's practicing. in those throws because that was his guy. I would practice the long step of Lewis Lloyd from the Houston Rockets when I was a kid. I'd practice Clyde Drexler stuff. I would practice whatever I could of my favorite players. So just because you were a lonely child, Lance? What's that? No, no, no. I had two other siblings. But I mean, look, just because a guy can make some kind of throw doesn't mean you don't want Zach Wilson making that throw a whole lot. That's not the throw. you want him making a whole lot. You want him making those throws that are smart decisions and delivered accurately on time

where you're taking the right throw every time. And people just get blown away by the most, it's just like trick shot generation now where you just get blown away by any kind of trick shot or any kind of production. You know, you couldn't, for example, you couldn't say anything bad about Dwayne Haskins because he had 50 touchdowns and an interception or whatever it was. I mean, God forbid he played one year at Ohio State. and there was no possible way he could possibly fail. It was impossible.

And yet here we are, and he's a backup in Pittsburgh trying to hang on and make it. Look, the production's going to look insane. That's the way it is in college football. And just because you played a small school or you have accurate, and I learned this personally, the Josh Allen thing was a big teacher to me, a big teacher to me. So I have to take that seriously. Justin Herbert.

Well, I thought he couldn't possibly take over. I was told that he couldn't possibly lead a room. full of, you know, tough guys and this, that, and the other, because he is just a country kid from, you know, Eugene Oregon, who played at Eugene in high school, played a Eugene in college. He didn't seem like he had much of a problem when he got there into the league this year. So just because guys do something on a pro level with tons of production, it doesn't mean they're going to be superstar status. Just because a guy is a lower level, you know, it doesn't mean that they can't possibly

raise their level of play just because they have. issues with lesser talent around them sometime. But I just think the overall desire to enoint every quarterback as an early first round push, I just don't see it. I mean, I've got one quarterback who I think personally is worthy of a top gate grade. One quarterback in this class in terms of a grade. That doesn't mean I don't project them to go higher, but one quarterback has that kind of grade, and it's Trevor Lawrence.

I don't think any of the other big, big, I think Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones, Freudian slip. I think Mac Jones is a second round quarterback. I mean, that's where I would draft him. Justin Fields to me is more like a ninth or tenth quarterback. I think Trey Lance typically is going to be middle of the first in most years. But because it's such an important position and because everybody is in such a mad dash, everything gets either shuffled up the draft board or the media pushes them into mock drafts way, way up the draft board, way ahead of where they should be. I was Michael Jordan in my driveway for the first like eight years of my wife. But you were a Chicago guy.

I was Akeem Elijah on, but it was harder. Well, I can't, I can't shit on you for being, from emulating players in your driveway. That's how I spent most of my hours. When did you officially put your wristband up mid forearm? How old were you in your wrist arm? 11. Yeah, exactly. Immediately.

Yeah, it was fifth grade. Fifth grade is when on the travel basketball team. That's when the wristband started getting broken out. So I think the quarterback question, similar to what I was talking about with how quickly everything is shifted with the process. I think it's fascinating how fast everything has shifted to what can they do off platform and out of structure. When did that conversation become the driving force behind this? It was probably over the last two to three years because of what Mahomes and Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson to a certain extent,

I think that's a different conversation than a couple of the other guys. But that's not even a media-driven thing. Look at how pro days are structured. Look at the throws that we drool over. It's those kinds of throws. And it's amazing to me how fast that shifted based on a couple of the success stories. And I think you guys bring up Josh Allen leads me to my next question here. Obviously, I think he's the name that's really been behind a lot of these quarterback conversations.

Are there a couple other players in the NFL that you guys kept coming back to, even unconsciously, as you were going through this, guys that you're like, oh, he could be like this. He could be like that. Players that you feel like really dictated your evaluation process. Dane? Yeah, and I think not to switch the conversation to offensive line, which I know Lance is all four. That's fine with me too. It's fascinating with arm length.

And you look at this year's class. Okay, last year we had six offensive tackles draft in the first round. All six were above 34-inch arms. Several well above. Bechtin was 35 and a half. Andrew Thomas was like 36. Worf's was talked about as maybe being a guard because he was only 34 even. This year, all the tackles that are even men.

mentioned as top 50 picks. We're talking, what, eight, nine players? Christian Darasov, Virginia Tech, is the only one with above 34-inch arms. It's the T-Rex crew for sure this year. It's amazing. Yeah, and especially in contrast to last year. You got, Penny Sewell, 33 and a quarter. Slater, 33-Eat.

Dude, 33-and-a-quarter is typically a major concern for NFL offensive line coaches. Yeah, right. I'm just telling you, it really is. 33 and a half. But I was told by a scout. that was a very, very generous measuring tape on Tevin Jenkins. So that 33 and a half might be generous. Cosme is 33 even.

Eichenberg's 32 and 3 eighths and Brady Christensen's 32 and a quarter. So, I mean, it's just, it's a really interesting conversation with tackles that I know will frustrate some. And then others are, you know, they put stock in it. I think, you know, for some teams, they have that threshold where if it's 34 inches, that that's what they're looking for. Anything under that, they're kicking inside the guard. or they're not just not considering them at all. And so this is a really interesting group. And I think, you know, if your feet and your technique are constantly, consistently,

on time, then it doesn't always matter what your length is. But your timing, if it's just a tick off, longer arms help bridge the gap. And so you want to lower your margin for error, which is obviously so important versus the best past racers in the NFL compared to what we're scouting at the college level. So length, yeah, it could be overrated at times, but it's absolutely. relevant and, you know, just looking at this class and you're saying, okay, can, you know, can these guys be the exception, the 33 inch arms that can play a tackle? Or is this the next Joel Botonio? Is this, you know, I don't want to put Zach Martin out there because I mean,

Zach Martin's, you know, in all pro. You don't want to compare these guys with all pro. But can they be those conversion guys that are going to move inside the guard because the length isn't there? Or do you keep them at tackle and you say, okay, they'll be the exception because it's, guy like Rashon Slater, I evaluate him as a tackle because he consistently on time to technique, the feet, the eyes consistently. But against the NFL, it's a different animal. And so, you know, that's why some teams have them as a guard or center. So it's just the length question with these tackles makes it for just a really interesting

scenario from team to team. Lance, would you say there's one for you? I mean, I can't imagine how many times the name Tyreek Hill has come up in player evaluations recently with fast receivers, stuff like that. Just a couple that you feel like I can't get this guy out of my head as I filter the college game through what I've watched in the NFL over the last couple years. Yeah, I think there's, I think there's a couple. One, and I'll, I'm not going to, I don't have a particular player for D.K. Metcath. But I think, so I was, that's one of the ones I hit.

And I've had plenty of misses, trust me. But the D.K. Metcalf I had as a top 10 player in the draft and he ended up going back into the second behind Andy. Last round. Last pick in the second round. Behind Andy Isabelle. by the way. And one of the reasons is because people said, well, you know, I know he's got the traits and he has the flashes, but the three cones, slow, the change of direction. Maybe he has too little body fat because those players are really tight and usually pull muscles and things. And there were all these excuses. And all I know is that humans don't walk the earth that look like him. I mean, he looks like Terrell Owen. Sherell Owens is a separate conversation. One of the freakyest humans that frankly has ever existed in all of human. manity from an athlete standpoint. We saw him run, what was it, a couple months ago, ran like a 4, 540. That's absolutely, or 4, 440. That's insane. But D.K. Metcalf, to me, you asked the wrong

questions. And this was what stands out at every position. Are you asking the right questions? If your thing was, well, D.K. can't change direction. Well, what, okay, what if I were to tell you he's going to run go routes and he's going to run over routes and post? And he's going to be put in positions to where the feet keep moving and he doesn't have to break down. He doesn't have to break down in his hips and sink and do this stuff. What if he's only asked to do the things he's really good at? Then what do you do with them? And you have to remember that the draft is often a series of exercises where teams find

players who fit what they do. And you have to remember that. Sometimes you have to project. I have to remember when I'm looking at a negative. Well, what if his positives, you know, what are his positives and are his negatives? is there something schematically where teams can prevent him from playing in that? For example, there's different coverages. So different safeties and corners can be asked to play in different coverages

that minimize their mistakes. I think Paulson Adibo is a guy who, yeah, he's a guy had a bad tape against Gabriel Davis two years ago from central Florida. But the guy also has phenomenal ball skills and can be put in position to where he doesn't have to worry as much about getting beat off the line of scrimmage if he's playing in some type of cover three where he's immediately in a shuffle and he's being allowed to play like that. Jeremiah Awusu Caramoa, you know, I understand he's 222 pounds and he hasn't really played truly off the ball. He's been in a slot. He's played safety. He's not, but I just think if you

look at what he does well, it's translatable the same way it was with Darius Leonard. And Darius was a true linebacker in college, but he was ridiculously productive in every category you can imagine. And I see that same potential with Karamoa. I see him with the ability to cover, to blitz, to rake up the tackles. And so I think you have to be careful about a player falling short in a particular metric of testing or a particular trait. And instead, remember, what do they do well? And is there something schematically that could make them a big hit for one team,

where they might not be as successful for another team because the way you have to evaluate them is more than like we're evaluating for 32 teams. So you have to evaluate them for a team that is probably going to take advantage of what their best trades are. I think something else that has really evolved with receiver too is when I first started doing this, I was taught, okay, wide receiver, don't make it complicated. It comes down to two things. Can you get open? Can you catch the ball? And then work off from there. You know, there's plenty of subcategories after that. But start with those two premises. But for me, when you look at today's NFL, I think you have to add a third to that group. And it's, okay, what does he do after

the catch? Can he get open? Can he catch a ball? And can he create after after after the catch? And that's where we see the Tyre Kills. And I think we're looking for who could be that next guy in that role. And that that's become almost as important as those first two criteria as scouting the position because of what Tyra Kill and a few others have done. And so, okay, can Jalen Waddle be that guy? Can Elijah Moore be that guy? It's really brought up more conversation to the receiver position in today's NFL compared the past years. It's funny because I think a lot of that is the types of offenses we're seeing.

I mean, you look at some of the numbers, say, from 2016, there was one team in the NFL that used play action on more than 25% of their dropbacks. It was Atlanta that year. This year, I want to say that there were 14 teams that used it at least 30% of the time. And that's kind of that Shanahan influence, but the space created there, you look at guys like the 49ers type of receivers or what AJ Brown has been, there's so much value in that because of the space created by the structure of current NFL offenses, which brings me to my next question.

I wanted to ask you guys, even if it's a specific concept, I mean, five years ago, we didn't see as many RPO's with a little backside glance route in the NFL, even though it was a staple in college football. Now we see it all the time. Smart teams do it. Is there a quirk of college offense that you feel like might be the next thing that could trickle up into the league and make things easier like we were talking about earlier. Lance, is there anything that jumps out to you? Not offensively. I'd say defensively,

you have to look at the mirror effects. So whatever is working, you have to look at mirror effects. So I think you're going to see some defensive changes come down the pipe to take advantage of safety darting into potential RPO looks. You know, we've seen this at Oklahoma. It started at what, Ohio State and in Oklahoma, Alex Grinch. A lot of the darting, a lot of the heavy slant action to be disruptive. I think you could see more and more of that where you're scraping linebackers over the top and you're doing a ton of darting and scraping and slanting up front. I would say from an offensive standpoint, there's always been the potential.

We've always seen certain plays where you get outside of the pocket and you put corners in the popcorn, you know, in the blender with their, where they're having to figure out, okay, the place coming right at me, do I worry about my wide receiver anymore, or do I worry about the quarterback, for example, headed my way? And we've seen Florida years ago use some of that option attack where they would draw the corner in and then they'd throw what amounts is to a pass outside and it would turn into whether it's a, and it could literally be a pass. It doesn't have to be a lateral, obviously, because it's behind a line of scrimmage. I think we could see more of that type of offense making its way in with more mobile quarterbacks, we could see new ways of putting

stress and pressure on safeties and cornerbacks once they get to the flanks and putting those wide receivers in position to be pass catchers and almost option attack players as opposed to blockers on the perimeter. It seems like in the league now there's more RPO's that are attacking second and third level defenders and the way that it trickled up from the league. The chiefs do it a decent amount. It's just fun to watch which steps each level is on and which is ahead and which is behind and how they influence one another. And I do think that the leak has gotten flatter over the last five years and the exchange of information and ideas has probably been more free, which I think is why it's cool to see how they influence one another. All right. Last thing here,

Dane, if you just want to kind of put a period on the end of this sentence, when you're going to think about this class, I know where guys get drafted is going to influence this. But when you look back on this in five years, how do you think? about how do you think you'll think about this group? I think, obviously, the opt-outs and the pandemic and all that, what is the ripple effect here? You know, as we go, as we move forward, what was the ripple effect of, you know, did teams pick up something over this last year that affects how they're going to scout forward? You know, we know there are some organizations that don't go to the senior bowl anymore and, you know, they just, they look at things differently.

well, the pandemic, it really forced teams to look at things differently and how they operate. You know, there are draft meetings being held entirely over Zoom, which is just, it's crazy. That's that's unheard of. But, you know, our teams, when you look at, you know, balancing work and life and, you know, I'm talking to some scouts, they loved this past year. Yeah, they weren't on campus. Yeah, they weren't traveling as much, but they got to be with their families more. And so that's a part of this that teams are going to have to take into account. What did they learn this year and how will that affect how they scout moving forward,

the different practices they implement and not just the team side, but also the player side. mentioning these opt-outs. Obviously, Penteau, Jamar Chase, these guys are going top 10 opt-outs. But, you know, we have to look at guys like Gregor Rousseau and some of these other players who opted out could have used another season of tape. and hopefully, you know, I'm sure it's not just us we're watching. They're players in college right now that are going to be paying attention to these players. And so, okay, these guys opted out, they still went first round.

And so does that mean that, okay, should when our season's done and I mean, you know, we're two and two and two after four weeks or, you know, two and four after six weeks at the college level, is, am I better off just saying, okay, I'm out of here. I'm going to go prepare for the draft. And, you know, it's not going to affect me on draft weekend. and they still have a chance to go in the first round top 50. How will this affect how prospects and players look at opting out, maybe hitting the cruise control, different things like that?

There's going to be some ramifications of how this last year played out. I'm very interested to see how that all plays out. Yeah, I want to follow up with Dane. I think I could give you the answer that this is a crazy deep draft, which it is in rounds two through four, two through five. There's going to be a lot of starters that come out of this that go late day two and early day three. I really believe that at certain positions.

But I think what Dane said is very, very prescient. I think that what we're looking at this year is a potential for players. We know that we saw the opt-outs happen with, you know, with bowl games. We know that bowl games created a lot of opt-outs, specifically once Leonard Fornett and Christian McCaffrey did it through injuries, especially on the heels of Jalen Smith being injured in a bowl game. We started seeing more opt-outs, and this has become a massive. guys who have no business opting out or opting out.

And what we saw this year was the phrase opt out because of COVID, it was utilized by players to just leave football. And I am very curious, at least for their college teams, some for medical reasons, some it was not for medical reasons. I am very curious now to see how the entire changes of 2020, now the ability for players to transfer and play right away, how that impacts the draft, how the ability, more importantly, though, to Dane's point, you know, will more and more players, I believe that we're just at the beginning of players

opting out of college football. I believe from now on when the going gets tough or when players don't want to list of a coach anymore, when they just feel like their team can't win, you're going to see opt-outs become a massive part of college football. And it will have an impact on college. And the question is going to be, how will teams view those players who leave their team in the lurch if that's how they view it. Because the player will say, I want to be ready for the NFL draft. When the reality is, players have been able to get ready for the NFL draft for years and years and years playing a regular college football schedule.

I think that is going to become a bigger part of what teams now have to deal with is opting out of entire seasons where you don't play your junior year anymore and then leaving in the middle of the season. I think what we saw this year for people who say, well, that's just a pandemic year. That's not the norm. Oh, no. This is going to become the norm, I think, and how that, and how difficult that becomes for scouts to figure things out, I think, is going to be a big deal.

Now, let me just say to Dane's point, I'm sure scouts love the ability to stay with their families more and not have to go on the road. Well, I hope you don't get used to it because your ass is going to be back on the road next year. And you're going in those buildings again. And nothing's going to change from that standpoint. All right. Guys, thank you very, very much. Obviously, please check out prospects of pros if you guys don't listen to it. We're a couple days away from the draft.

I went back and listened to the last few episodes yesterday while cleaning out my closet pre-move. It was a great way to spend time. You guys will learn a ton. Dane just did his seven-round mock draft with Lance and Fran Duffy last week. There's a ton of information in there that you guys think. I think you guys will learn a lot. Guys, thank you so much for doing this. Really appreciate it.

Dane, we will talk to you on draft night. Lance, I'm sure we'll catch up down the road, buddy. Can't wait. Sounds good. Looking forward to it. All right, guys. That's all. Thank you to Dane.

Thank you to Lance. Really appreciate their time. It was a great conversation. Just a reminder, live draft show Thursday night. Twitter, YouTube, check the athletic app for a push notification you guys should be getting. Me and Nate are going to be coming to you at 9.30 p.m. Eastern time. Going to be going after the 15th pick in the first round. Dane is going to be joining us intermittently.

So will Lindsay Jones. Really excited about this. It would mean a lot if you guys would be. come join us. It's going to be a lot of fun. Cannot wait to be in person doing something again. Until then, though, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I would sincerely appreciate that. Also, please subscribe to the athletic.

Theathletic.com slash football show. So much good stuff. We're really cranking it up here in a few days before the draft. Last week I wrote about the health of the supporting casts for the Jets, the Niners, and the Jags as they prepare to pick quarterbacks. We have so much good stuff on the site. I can't even pick it all out. Every single team has some very cool team-specific content they've been working on.

You cannot get ready for the draft without a subscription to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. Please go check it out. We will be back tomorrow with Lindsay Jones asking some of our big questions that we have heading into draft night. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you later. This was The Athletic Football Show.