The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Lingering Questions about the AFC North

Episode Date: May 30, 2024

Robert Mays continues our series about lingering questions from the 2023 season, taking a hard look at the AFC North with The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. We are continuing our lingering questions from 2023 series, focusing on the AFC North. One of the best divisions in football last year, I think has the potential to be one of the best divisions in football again.

But a lot of unanswered stuff, whether it's the way that these teams played in the playoffs or some of the evolution on offense or defense from a couple of these units, a lot of very important questions to dig into and here to help us run through those questions for the AFC North. It is my old buddy from the ringer. Stephen Ruiz. Stephen, how you doing, man? I'm feeling good. And I feel excited because you gave me a good division to work with. Usually when I get invited to these other shows, I have to talk about the NFC South and the Panthers. So it feels good to be talking about some good teams for change. I was very excited

because the way that this process is gone with everyone is that I have sheepishly asked people to do this, even though it's way more work than you should ever ask about a podcast guest. And I've said, all right, you send me your questions, and then I'll send you mine and we can figure out what we're going to do. And when you sent me your four for the AFC North, I was like, yeah. Like, this is exactly the type of stuff that I wanted to dig into with all of these teams. So I'm very excited to do this. And let's get it kicked off.

Let's start with the Ravens, the defending AFC North champions. What is your lingering question from last season about the AFC championship participating Ravens? My question is what's next for this offense? Because we spent a decent amount of time during like October, November, talking about the improvements they had made on offense and how we're seeing the best of Lamar Jackson, how he's become a real passer. But I spent a decent amount of time around Baltimore.

I live in the area. And I asked Todd Munkin in October, I think, like, how much better is it going to be in year two? Like, how hard is it in year one to be a coordinator and explain how, like, everything gets better in year two? Like, not just on the field, like the meeting rooms. how meetings are run, how you talk to players, how you guys talk about concepts,

what gets run on early downs, what gets runs on late downs. So I'm interested to see how it evolves. And I have to say, they're starting from a very interesting place because I don't think we paid enough attention to the structure of the offense and how similar it was to what a lot of the scheme geniuses

around the league were doing, like Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan, like how they utilize Patrick McCart. By far is the most interesting thing about this offense, which is crazy to do. say about an offense that features maybe the most dynamic player in the history of the sport. I love this. And it's something that I didn't really think enough about when we considered them fizzling out a little bit, you know, in that last game. And there was a disappointing end

to this Raven season. And there's an element of it where they were so loaded and they were so good and you think, oh, was this their best shot? You know, the fact that they couldn't get it done now, are they going to be able to replicate this. And on defense, there are a ton of worthwhile questions. And the Mike McDonald element of this will figure that out as time goes along. But on offense, I didn't think enough about the fact that it was year one. And beyond some of the things that you learned schematically, I've talked to so many coaches over the last three or four months about how you think about your role within a staff. Right.

So if you're an offensive coordinator for a play calling head coach, or if you're kind of the right-hand man of the offensive coordinator, your job is game planning and information acquiring. And, you know, you're just part of figuring out what are the tendencies of other teams, even the streamlining of how that communication works and how those processes work as a new staff as something that'll theoretically get better over time. So it's tempting to think,

oh, man, did the Ravens miss their shot? But I think you could make a pretty strong argument for the fact that this offense will be a more distilled version of what they do well heading into year two, even if there are some personnel concerns pretty much across the entire depth chart. And that's what I'm looking forward to.

And I think Todd Monkin, like, I think he passed the test. Obviously, Lamar wins MVP, got him back to playing like he was in 2019. But I think he passed the test in terms of week to week, how this offense changed depending on the opponent. And then kind of how they built the offense around their personnel. It wasn't like Munkin was given this group of offensive players

and said, all right, we're just going to run what they were running last year. Because outside of the receiving court, not a lot changed. They still had a lot of tight ends on the roster. They still had Patrick Ricard as a big point. a big part of the offense. And if you look at their personnel, it's like 22 personnel did not go down at all. Like 21 personnel did not go down at all.

And we like associate that with the Roman offense. But what Munkin did that was so interesting was that he put that second back on the line of scrimmage and used them as a tight end. So if you look at the personnel uses, you're like, oh, the Ravens didn't change. But then you look at like formation with and how they use spread formations

and how often they use two back formations, for instance. And it was totally different. And they were playing 11 and 12 personnel formations out of 21 personnel groupings, and it just gave defenses so much problems in terms of matching up. So what ended up happening is they're spreading things out more than they ever had, but they're getting the same defensive looks they were getting when they played under Roman because of the personnel on the field. So they're getting the cover three base defense against a spread out formation,

and that's why Lamar had so much success. But if you look at the splits with Ricard off the field and on the field, they were 0.11 EPA per play with them on the field. They were negative EPA with them off the field. Passing-wise, they were 0.25 EPA per play with regard on the field. They were minus 0.02. That's like the difference between Patrick Mahomes in an MVP season and like Zach Wilson, a regular Sunday game.

So when you're looking at what they did well and where you think there are potential areas of improvement, what sort of tweaks would you like to see as the second act of this offense gets going this season? I think it's being able to diversify the run game and not just using Lamar as like the piece or like option elements as the piece that kind of even up the numbers in the bus. I want to see them start pulling guards a little bit more like more concepts. And I think having a stronger offensive line is going to help. Like that was the undercover thing about this team last year is they had a real weakness on the offensive line.

I talked to Drew Tranquil after the AAC championship game in the locker room. I didn't end up using the quote and I was the only one talking to. to him. So didn't, I don't think anyone has ever heard this, but he told me, he's like, they had nothing for us at the point of attack. They had nothing for us. And that's why we won the game. And like, he was like, it wasn't Lamar, like, struggling or the run game, like, them not calling the run enough. I know that was a big talking point after the game. But he was saying they couldn't run the ball against us. Like, we were dominating the point of attack. Now I think with the changes on the offensive line, you have three new starters.

You have Vorhees coming back from the injury last year. He could have been a first round pick, ends up going in the seventh. That could be a big improvement over John Simpson. at left guard. You have Rosengarten, the right tackle the draft in the second round. I think that's a big improvement over Morgan Moses. And then Zytler, like he has a big name and he was an all pro, but he had a rough year last year. So I think

replacing him with Ben Cleveland, if he's ready to step into the starting lineup, which they've been kind of grooming him for that role over the past couple years, I think this has a chance to be an even better offense this year because of the offensive line. That's a tough sell for me. I get it. But you're dropping two guys who've never played

before into that equation. You think instantly it's going to be better? It's not John Simpson doing it, so it's going to, in my opinion, it might be better. I think it might be better. I think that John Simpson added a level of physicality to what they were doing last year that was helpful. Obviously, he's not a complete player.

I mean, this was a guy who was waived by the Raiders at the end of the 2022 season. And that's why I'm confident. We had this conversation with Mitchell Schwartz a couple weeks ago when we were doing buy or sell the off seasons for the contenders. And with the Ravens, I was looking at the offensive line. I'm like, oh, man. And how's that group going to be compared

to last year when you have so many new pieces and a couple question marks. And I think that John Simpson experience is instructive. The fact that this can be a guy who was waived by Vegas who wasn't exactly flushed with answers along the offensive line and he can come to Baltimore and through their kind of development and the way that they, you know, kind of treat that position group, he goes from being a guy who was waived to somebody who's making $6 million a year for the Jets. This is a team for the most part that I think deserves the benefit of the doubt for how they're handling that group.

My biggest concern, though, what do you think Riley Stanley is moving forward? Because this is a situation where he's gotten paid. We know that the injuries continue to loom. They were rotating tackles for a huge chunk of last year. That would be outside of the question marks and the guys that we've never seen. My biggest question about this group is,

what is he in 2024 with all of the things that he's had to deal with health-wise? Yeah, and it's not even just like what is he when he's healthy? it's like, is he going to be available? But I think that's a good question. And I really think that's why I think this story was kind of undercovered because the ratings did have big names on their offensive line.

You look at Zitler, you look at Ronnie Stanley. But like when they were playing, they weren't playing to the level that we had grown accustomed to. This wasn't 2019 Ronnie Stanley. This wasn't a 2019 Kevin Zitler. So, I mean, I don't think he has to return to pro bowl form for them to get back to where they were last year. But it's hard to imagine him.

getting back to that form and being a guy that you can just like line up on the left side of your offensive line and just be like he can handle whatever matchup comes his way. I don't think they're at that point anymore. And to my point, I think that's where Todd Monkin is going to be able to evolve the offense. Have a better protection plan in place. Have a better run game playing in place. I really think like the past game elements of this are good enough already. What do you think about the past catchers and the level of talent that they have in that group, but also the deployment? Because when I went back and I was walking, watching the AFC championship game,

I think Zayflowers is a chance to be a really, really good player. And I'm very impressed with just how they used him and his ability to create separation on vertical routes outside of the numbers and throttle down. Like, that's number one receiver type stuff. There's nothing gadgety or gimmicky about what I think is the core

of his skill set. But then you look at everything else and, you know, Bateman was fine last year. Odell wasn't really a factor by the end of the year. When I was kind of considering the group as a whole, it just feels like they miss or are lacking, just a pure speed option to stretch things a little bit. That's not Zay. And that's theoretically what DeVantz Walker can give them. And I think that's why the pick makes sense.

I'm just curious how the group kind of comes together this year when you think about all of those skill sets. Yeah, they need someone who can win deep and on the perimeter. And they've never really had that with Lamar. I know they've had like the small guys who can get open. Like Zay Flowers is a perfect example. And I think Hollywood Brown was. is another example where they can, you know, they can run past the cornerback on the outside, but what they don't have and they've never had is a ball winner on the outside.

And I think that's why Lamar's numbers passing outside the numbers are so inconsistent. Because when he hits a deep ball, he has to perfectly lead the receiver. He can't throw a back shoulder fade to a receiver. He's never really had a receiver he could do that to. But I know he has the ability because he does it with his tight ends

all the time. Like Mark Andrews gets back shoulder balls all the time. he gets floated passes all the time. Isaiah likely was getting those passes too last year when Andrews went down. I think they need like a 6-3 alpha X type receiver on the outside. And until they get that, I don't think we're going to see Lamar be able to expand his passing map as much as we would like to see. Even Zay Flowers, like he can win on the outside, but he's not going to like go up and

out jump a cornerback for a 50-50 ball. He's not going to catch a back shoulder ball. And if I'm Lamar, I don't trust him to do that. He's just not that type of player. But I think there's enough talent in the receiving court. I just would like to see them like swap out Bateman for one of those guys. Like swap out Bateman for not T. Higgins, but like 80% of what T. Higgins is. And I think you're cooking with gas.

I get that. And I also think that just big body receivers over the middle of the field. I mean, every time I going back and watching them over the last couple days, I want those Zayflower slants out of my life. I just don't need that anymore. That's not that type of player that he is. He's, his skill set is intriguing to me because his ability to throttle down on comebacks and bench routes and things like that, you really put the fear of God

into defense is playing that way, combined with the yak stuff that he has. But I still feel like as somebody who's going to be like a dig runner for them and an outside the numbers ball winner, they do not have that in the receiving core specifically. And I still have questions about that. All right. Let's get to mine. I don't mean to do this because I love Lamar Jackson. But it feels like we glossed over the end of the season for this team on. offense a little bit quickly for a couple of reasons. One, people were fixated on the fact that they did not run the ball enough in that game. And two, it was a Spagg celebration moment, which totally justify.

The season that he added and what he put together, we should be celebrating what Steve Spagnolo did last year. But my question is, are we a little bit worried about Lamar and the passing game fizzling out in the playoffs again? And I went back and I watched some stuff and looked at some of the numbers for some things that I would conceive of as problem areas. but what do you make of some of the limitations of this passing game and Lamar Jackson as we got into the postseason again?

I really think it's personnel-based and I think it's connected to the conversations we were just having. Like I think the offensive line wasn't good enough in key parts. And then I just don't think they have the body types of receiver to deal with a physical man-coverage defense. I thought that Kansas City defense is just the worst matchup for them. Because when you can man up on the outside, you can load the box. put an extra guy in the box. And if you don't have to have a second safety back deep,

then that's how you have to live to compete with Lamar Jackson. And then Lamar had a bad game himself. There were wet conditions. It wasn't the best weather outside. I think it was the perfect storm for the Ravens to have an ugly game, especially how that roster was constructed. I see it more of a blip than as like a real roadblock and something they're going to have to like really address.

I think it's a personnel issue. and I think we had those concerns going into the playoffs. I don't think anyone thought, like, this offensive line was perfect. I don't think anyone thought this was, like, the best receiving core in the NFL or even, like, a top 10 receiving core in the NFL. I wasn't surprised that the Chiefs were able to expose some of those weaknesses. I was surprised that Munkin didn't have a little more in terms of adjustments. And I would have liked to see them, like, go to the run game,

but I do think that was a personnel constraint. Like, when you don't have anything at the point of attack to steal the phrase from Drew tranquil. It's kind of funny that Drew Tranquil of all people saying that. If he's saying that about your team, you might have... But you saw it on the first play. On the first play from scrimmage in that game. I remember tweeting it out when I rewatched it a day after the game happened. He is setting the tone on the first play of that game.

And that's what it felt like the chiefs were able to do throughout. And there are a couple moments. This whole, like, they needed to run the ball more thing. I always think it's overblown. Every time we have that conversation, it's overblown. Let's go back and look at the specific instances where they should have run the ball and didn't. maybe there are two or three from that game.

There were a couple RPO's that Lamar should have handed off and didn't. So I think that element of it's a little bit overstated. The personnel side of this and the personnel limitations, it's a great point. The example I would bring up, first third down of the game. They bring heat. You're asking Nelson Aguilar to win against Trent McDuffie in man coverage. He gets no separation. And it's a decent throw by Lamar that he can't haul in.

We're punting. And so those things crept up a decent amount. But I also think there are elements of Lamar's game and elements of the way that teams play Lamar that are a thing. And they continue to be a thing. There are two things as I was digging into all the numbers that I came away with being like, okay, I think that we actually have to talk about this. This year, Lamar was 18th in success rate when blitzed. That's not great, but it's not terrible. It's actually better than some of the other seasons he's had recently.

If you actually look at what he does when teams bring big blitzes, though, it's pretty bad. And it's been pretty bad for the last few years. When teams brought six or seven against the Ravens this year, Lamar finished 28th in EPA per dropback and 23rd in success rate. In the AFC championship game, the Chiefs brought six or seven on eight of his dropbacks. On those plays, he was two of seven for 13 yards in a sack. And if this was some isolated incident, I'd be like, okay, you know, he's been great all season.

This is not really a problem. But this has been a consistent thing with him. And beyond blitzing, this one I thought was even more illuminating. Among the 34 quarterbacks since 2019 that have at least 1,000 pass attempts. And 30 to 35 is typically a good, like that's the group of quarterbacks in the NFL. He ranks 29th of those 34 in EPA per dropback on throws of less than two and a half seconds. And this has been a thing.

He was the only guy's worse than him last year where Sam Howell, Josh Dobbs, Mack Jones, and Bryce Young. He's been, he was 30th in 2021. He was 25th and 2020. His best season was in 2022 when he was 14th. I think if you speed him up, he can struggle. On throws of more than two and a half seconds since 2019, he is number one in the NFL in EPA per dropback.

When you let him get settled back there, and it's not just because he holds on to the ball. I think that when he's given time to work, he's absolutely devastating because the arm talent, the two guys at the top of the league in that stat are him and Matthew Stafford, which is not surprising at all, because the throws that those guys can get off when you allow them to operate are ridiculous. But I think we've gotten to a point where people are learning that if you speed up his process, you diminish what makes him special as a passer. And I wonder what the counterpunch is to that. And I wonder if that's going to continue to be a problem moving forward if they fix

some of these personnel things we're talking about. Yeah, I think it's a complicated answer or question to answer just because there are so many elements. Like there's the great Roman was scheming it up for him over the first 40 years element. That weighs it down. All the cover zero non-answers weigh it down. But the fact that it was still a problem last year, I'm like, uh-oh, that's not great. Yeah, I do think he does, he does have this problem.

Like he does have a problem against the blitz. And I appreciate that you separate the big blitzes versus like the fire zone pressures, which people always throw into these blitz numbers, which confounds the numbers. It's way easier to pass against those than it is to pass against a cover zero blitz. And those are the type of blitzes that give Lamar problems. I do think there's a quarterbacking issue there. Like I do think when you speed him up, it's not really speeding them up. It's forcing him to make a decision in a half a second, basically.

he does struggle and I think he tries to do too much. I remember that Thursday night game against Miami where Brian Flores was this double A gap look almost every single snap was like 40 times in that game and they just couldn't find an answer and Lamar himself

like even when they were calling routes down field and they were picking up the blitzes it just seemed like he was he's passing up on open receivers or he was fortunate to receivers that weren't open like he does become a far worse decision maker but the good news is is that you can only call those blitzes in certain situations.

And if you could stay out of those situations, then it's easy to work around that issue. And I don't think Baltimore did a good enough job in the Kansas City game to stay out of those situations. And I think whenever they lost under Greg Roman, it followed a similar script. So, like, I agree that it is an issue, but I want to see Todd Monkin and Lamar work for one more year together

and see where it goes from here. Because I will say this about Lamar, the one area where he took a massive leap where he didn't get a lot of credit for was like pre-snapsed up ownership of the offense, changing the plays, changing protections. I want to see what that looks like in year two. What it kind of reminded me of was Cam Newton going from 2014 to 2015. Over the last two months of 2014, Ron Rivera and Shula gave them the keys to the offense.

There were growing pains. And then that next year is when he won MVP. And that was the year where he really took over the offense. And I'm hoping to see a similar evolution with Lamar because this is really only the second year, he's been allowed to do that sort of thing. It's totally fair. Yeah, you can't do that in a great room. It gets back to your first point.

It gets back to your first point. This is only year one of the system. It's only year one of them working together. It's only year one of him having that ownership. And what concerns me is that in the playoffs, when you can get hyper-specific with the way that you can attack teams, our teams is going to pick at this. But the fact that they have another off-season and another year together for them to focus in on finding solutions when teams try to tap into that sort of. of defensive game plan. I have faith that they can come out

on the other side of this. But for right now, it remains a problem and it's going to need a solution. Let's get to our next one here. The Cincinnati Bengals. What is your lingering question from the 2023 season

about the Bengals? I don't know about you, but like the Bengals have been one of the more fascinating teams to cover in this job over the last like three years. It's specifically... 100%.

Specifically their offense and how it's evolved throughout the season. It almost followed, the same script every year. They struggle in September. They find some answers in October, and then in November and December, they take off. Unfortunately, last year, we never got to see that November and December take off because Joe Burrow got hurt. We got nuggets of it early. We got that little San Francisco game. We got little snippets of it that showed us what could

have possibly been. We did get nuggets from it. But the thing that I found so fascinating, and I didn't realize this until I looked up the numbers, let me give you this stat. explosive play rate in the open field, just 20 to 20. I take out Red Zone because I don't count those as explosive plays. Weeks 1 through 11 with Burrow, guess how many explosive plays they had from under center in between the 20s? Weeks one through 11. Very few.

Literally zero. Zero percent explosive play rate from under center in between the 20s. It was funny because I was looking this up. They were 26th in explosive play. I did it weeks five through 11 because I threw out the first four weeks of the season, when he was, I don't even know what I would call him. He was like the ghost of Joe Burrow. He was Ben Rothschberger.

I was trying to think of a derogatory comparison that I could make. I really appreciate you doing it for me. I looked at Weeks 5 through 11. They were 26th an explosive play rate, period, over that stretch. They just were not set up to find explosives with the way that they're playing and the way teams are playing them. Now, Levin, Weeks 12 on without Burrow, 16% explosive play rate. So here's my thing is, like, I look at, I'm reading the tea leaves.

I'm looking at the acquisitions this off season. I don't think they're going to lean into the under center thing more. I think they're going to lean into the, all right, let's spread things out and let Joe read it out on first and second down. Forget a run game. We're just going to run quick game on first and second down. That's what it seems like they're doing with their acquisitions. But if I, like, I'm imagining that Joe Burrow doesn't like to go under center, that he prefers to be a shot. He does not.

Yeah, everything I've read. I can tell you that for a fact. But I'm going to Joe and I'm like, look at these numbers, man. When we go under center, we have an explosive run game. We can't get explosive runs running RPO. I'm sorry. We can't do it with like zone bubble and zone glance. It's not going to happen.

We can't have explosive pass plays on early downs because we're just calling quick game and you're not going to get explosive unless Jamar Chase breaks a tackle. I'm going to him and I'd be like, we can make your job so much easier if you just commit to this undercenter stuff. When they committed to the under center stuff, when they committed to the under center stuff after the injury, their offense was better than it was with Joe Burrow, even if you take out the month when he was playing like 2020 Ben Rathesburg. They still had down weeks after it seemed like Burrow got better. After that Cardinals game, I was like,

oh, right, Burroughs back. He had a couple scramble plays. He had that one touchdown in the back of the end zone after a scramble. He threw a ball like 60 yards in there. I'd never even seen that throughout his whole career. But then there was the Seattle game. And they fall into the same problems they had. They couldn't run the ball, no explosives. They just give Burrow such a small margin for error. And that's my question is, how are you going to expand that margin for error in 2024 for Joe Burrow, not put everything on his plate where it's like, go make a play, Joe, read it out. It's a great question.

And I think it is the fundamental question they're going to have to answer here moving forward because they were able to tap into some stuff with Browning that they weren't not able to do with Joe because it's not the way that he wants to play. And I would hope that as they've committed to the offensive line, as that group has gotten marginally better, you know, the interior is obviously the same. Their tackle situation has a chance to be the best that it's been since he got there this year, whether it's Trent Brown or Marius Mims. Can you convince him it's not terrifying for you to turn your back to the defense anymore?

You don't have to worry about getting decapitated if you turn around for half a second. And I think that was a real concern early in his career and justifiably so. So if you can convince him, we're just trying to give you a play off every once in a while. Is that something where you could find some sort of compromise? I will say there are little things that were creeping in that encouraged me about them having a little bits of evolution, the amount of motion that we were seeing, some of the just getting Jamar involved with some of these

spit the ball out to him and let him go to work type plays. The way they were attacking over the middle of the field against some of these quarters-based defenses was a lot different than what we had seen over the first couple years of this regime. So I do think they're inching in the right direction with some of this stuff, think that the under center game, and we could talk about this in a second, but for me, it's the marriage of the under center game with their passing game and the play action. That to me is the

final bridge that needs to be crossed. And I think there are a few looming concerns before that can happen. Yeah, especially looking at the like the off-season acquisitions. Like you don't bring in Mike to Sicki to go under center and run like 12 personnel and 13 personnel. And you don't bring in those guys that Trent Brown to run more inside and outside zone from under center. That is a we are committing to the gap scheme life type of signing when you go out and get a guy like that. That's what's so confusing to me is like the acquisitions for the skill group over the last couple years are like, yeah, we're going to spread things out, we're going to be a quick game team. But like on the offensive line, like you said, Trent Brown, bring in Orlando Brown Jr.,

like those are run first offensive linemen. So it's kind of like a mixed message. I do think like I've given Zach Taylor too much grief over the last couple of years. Like now that I saw him get to like calling off. offense with a quarterback that you're not going to adjust things for. Like you're not going to adjust your scheme for Jake Brown. And you will for Joe Burrow because he's actually good at the stuff that he likes to do. But like you said, they were running jet sweeps.

They were getting Jabbar chased the ball. That stood out to me too. They're running tosses. They're running WAM plays. They're running powers, counters. Like, we had never seen the offense operate like this before. And I do think it's proof of concept for Burrow. Like he had to have been there watching on the sidelines, watching in the film and be like,

all right, this stuff actually works. It will make my job a lot easier. That's like my hope for next year is they combine those two things. And if they combine those two things, I think it's the best version of this offense we have ever seen, even compared to the Super Bowl year, which I think was a little more shaking than people realize and really reliant on explosive plays.

Their success rate was one of the worst in the league. It was fragile. It was a fragile approach on offense. Here's my concern with this, though. Their gun run game is really good. they are good at running the ball out of the shotgun because that's what they tapped into two years ago. About five games into that 22 season,

they realized we cannot live this life where we spread people out and are in a gun to throw it and then we get under center to run it. We're not good at that. We have big-bodied offensive linemen. Let's run this gap-heavy shotgun-based running game. And then you look at last year, and they were trying to merge an under-center play action game

with that strength as a rushing attack. And it didn't work. weeks 5 through 11 when burrow was relatively healthy they were dead last in success rate and EPA per rush from under center. They were fifth in success rate from the gun. And so you're trying to run the ball from under center to give credence to an under center play action game,

but you can't do the first part. So if you're not going to be able to run the ball effectively under center, it really defangs your under center play action game. Is there some way where you can merge these things together? Can you have a shotgun play action game? There's some middle ground that allows you to hunt out explosives in ways that you can't right now with just your spread out quick game, but also understand that your strongest baseline in the running game is these gap runs from the shotgun. I don't know how you do that.

I think it's getting Burrow to buy in. I think another element, and you kind of mentioned this, is like how much more motion they were running when they were running under center. I don't think Burrow likes motion either. I think he's like a paid manning type where he's like, I want it to be static. like he's like the modern day paid manning and I think until he embraces those elements and like I'm not not saying that

he should because he's been successful without him but I do think it will make the offense better as a whole because when they went to Browning all of a sudden they could run from under center they were one of the best under center run teams in the NFL after Joe Burrow went out so something changed and maybe it's a coincidence but I do think they started

doing more stuff around the run game like with the Jet Suite they started doing more like 49ers Miami stuff stuff. And I have to say, like, I have to give Zach Taylor his flowers. I have to apologize. I wasn't familiar with your game, man. I didn't know. I think they've been trying to push in this direction, and I think that Joe is hesitant to do a lot of that. And I'm curious to see what it looks like now. I have a lot of confidence in Dan Pitcher and his role there.

I had a really good conversation with Dan at the Combine, just about what he did as part of their game planning and just kind of what was on his plate over the last couple years. And it consistently grows, right? I mean, this is something where he was kind of given their entire third down game planning per view last season. And as that type of stuff grows when you're an assistant, I think it gets you ready for that role as an offensive coordinator.

And this is important to remember. Being an offensive coordinator for a play calling head coach is very different than being an offensive coordinator when you are the play caller. If you can be somebody that's really good with information, really good with details, really good with pairing down, this is what this team does in this situation. You have a ton of value. And I have a sense that that is one of Dan's strengths. And that's why I feel like even losing Callahan,

I have faith in what this team can do as they try to further iterate on who they've been over the last couple years. I mean, you listen to Joe Burrow talk about this offense, even in press conferences, and I don't care who the coordinators. I really don't care who the coordinator is. I think the guy calling place does matter to a certain extent, but Burrow is just one of those quarterbacks where it's going to be his offense, no matter what, like in a good way. Yeah. Sometimes that could be a bad thing. Like in Russell Wilson's case, that could be a bad thing. And maybe Burrow gets to a point into his career where he's playing like Russell Wilson.

But at this point, like running the borough offense is like, what, top five, top 10 offense every year with these pieces. So he's not 2020, Ben Rathesberger, yes. Yeah, yeah, that's true. That's a good point. But yeah, I have, I have no, like, concerns about the offense coordinator change at all. I know Brian Gallahin was, like, highly thought of. And I think he's going to do a good job in Tennessee, but like the pieces are there.

And I think the office is, the floor is so high. I'm, like, bringing up these concerns, but the floor is still what, like top 10 offense? Yes. If everyone's how they have like moderate health, I think top 10 offense is correct. Let's get to mind here. What the heck happened to the Bengals defense last year? What the heck happened? After Burrow gets hurt, I think that most of the focus, rightfully so, was on those few games of Jake Browning.

I'm like, what the hell is going on with Jake Browning? Like, this is very impressive. And I think people didn't pay a lot of attention to the bottom falling out of this unit that had been really good over the last couple years. I mean, Luan Rumo's defense carried this team for stretches of the last couple seasons, especially when they got into the postseason. If you look at the numbers, they're 23rd in defensive DVOA last year, 25th in EPA per play. So if you had to posit an explanation for what the heck happened in Cincinnati last year

compared to the previous couple seasons, what would you say? I think Cam Taylor Britt got hurt, and I think the secondary just got worse. Like DJ Turner, I'm sorry to say, he can't play man coverage and you want to live in man coverage. I think they were top 10 in man coverage rate and you have a cornerback that can't play it and then you lose your other cornerback it's hard it's hard to play that style of defense this is the one thing I will say

even in the second half if you just look at third down they were one of the better defenses in the NFL they were like a top half of the league defense their problem was on early downs specifically against the past and I don't know what I don't know like what went into that I think it was

like coverage bust because it was a lot of explosive plays, but Big Lou was still doing his thing on third down. The problem was the early down past defense. And let me give you some numbers outside of one stretch from week five to week nine where they forced 10 turnovers, a lot of them coming in the red zone. This team was 32nd in yards allowed per play, 25th in EPA per snap, 31st in success rate, 30 second in explosive play rate allowed, 30th in run success rate and past success rate. This is one of the worst defenses in the entire league last year.

Period. And I had a lot of those same stats. They were dead last and explosive play rate allowed 12.9% of passes against this team were explosive. They turned every team into the Houston, Texans. Yeah, that's tough. And it's on early down. So I really think they try to play a little bit too much man coverage. And I think that was the issue.

Oh, see, I'm going the other way. I think that if you look at it, they were 16th and explosive play rate allowed in man. They were second. They were second in zone. And I think this is the problem. Every worst fear that you had about the Bengals defense last year and some of the pieces that they were changing out came true. Every single one.

You swap out Jesse Bates and Von Bell for Daxil, who they drafted in the first round, and Nick Scott, who they signed as a stopgap free agent. It did not go well. It went very, very poorly. And I don't mean to treat him as a punching bag or to get on him. Nick Scott had a really, really rough season. And you watch what they were trying to do on the back end.

This is one of the most complicated defenses in the NFL. And losing those two stabilizing veteran forces who were fluent in these ideas and were lynch pins in your communication, you saw that. When this team was trying to pass things off in zone, it was an absolute nightmare. There was a play against the Texans where they hit Noah Brown on a deep post. And it looks like Dax Hill was in the post and he's supposed to be taking care of that. But D.J. Turner was supposed to fall back on it. And there were just so many easy completions when they're trying to pass things off between each other because this group has never worked together.

And you combine that with a lack of run support from the safeties too. I mean, Nick Scott against the run, I was watching that week 11 game against the Texans. And maybe it was week 10. But he got benched like the week after that game. And they were just trying to find answers on the back end. So I think you combine that, the issues they had at safety with those pieces getting switched out. You mentioned some of the injuries at corner. and their young, highly drafted guys

have not stepped up and been factors. Daxhill is getting a position change. They're moving him to corner and they had to sign Gino Smith or Gino Stone and Von Bell to kind of reinforce and restabilize that area. And Miles Murphy was a non-factor for that last year, like a non-factor.

And you mentioned DJ Turner. This plan of we're going to have all these highly drafted defensive guys and we're going to get cheap on defense as our offense gets expensive, totally fine. On paper, I think it's the right approach, and it is the best way to balance this stuff out when you're going to spend money the way that the Bengals spend money.

Unfortunately, that plan falls apart if all these guys that you draft in the first two rounds don't end up becoming difference-making players, and right now, that is the trajectory that these guys are on, unless DJ Turner and Miles Murphy are much better this year than they were last year. Yeah, they have to be a lot. like DJ Turner specifically,

they, he got cooked by Zay Flowers a couple times in both of those games. He could not play man coverage against a route that broke over the middle of the field. He is a cover four, cover three quarterback. And like,

if you're going to play an Anuromo's defense, you can't be that type of quarterback. You need to be able to play man. You need to be able to play zone. And I think they underestimated the burden that was put on the secondary the last couple of years. And I think they underestimated the burden

that was put on the defense as a whole. Like you said, they are choosing to pay their offensive side of the ball, when you don't hit on the draft picks and this is your plan, like you've got to change something. And I think this might lead to T. Higgins leaving it. I wonder if they rethought their process with T. Higgins after seeing how poorly the defense played last year

and how poorly this plan is working so far. There just isn't as much depth or as many pieces, especially along the front. And you see that. I mean, when Zach Carter is having to play or sample, or when they get to that second line on the defensive line, It's a problem, and it's been a problem. So now you go get Sheldon Rankins, you draft Chris Jenkins in the second round, you have Miles Murphy in a year two.

Hopefully you're going to have more usable bodies in that position group specifically, and you're going to be able to fix some of this. But last year, Sam Hubbard wasn't very good last year among 55 edge guys who played half their team snaps. He was 43rd in pass-rush productivity, which is a PFF rate stat just how often you're affecting the quarterback. And Murphy was worse. So they just need better play out of those secondary pieces. And the last stat that I'll throw out, they were third in 2021-2020 and 2022 combined an EPA per drop-back when blitzing. I mean, think about it. Anecdotally, like, that's what they did.

Lou was cooking, and they gave teams a lot of problems. They were 30th in EPA per drop-back last year when they blitzed. This just wasn't the same defense. And I can understand going out, re-grabbing Von Bell to try to recapture some. some of that heat of who you used to be to try to fix this and stop the bleeding. And we'll see if it can happen. But even going back and watching it over the last couple of days, it was pretty ugly, man. It was worse than I remember.

And I remember the game pretty bad last year. Let's get to our next one, the Cleveland Browns. What is your lingering question about the 2023 Browns? My question is, what do we make up of, or what do we make of Deshawn Watson's last three games? Over his last three starts, he goes 0.070. EPA per play. Huge improvement.

Yeah, huge improvement over minus point one-1 EPA for dropback over the first couple games. And then 6.5 yards per dropback over that time. And I watched the film. I ran through the film yesterday. He made some good throws. Like, he made some throws that reminded you of 2020 to Sean Watson. I don't know if you have any opinion on this or if you've watched him. But he looked like a top 10 quarterback at times over those final three games.

the one thing I'm concerned about with him is the micro level accuracy. But in terms of like arm strength and reading plays out, I do think he was much better down the stretch. I don't think a lot of people were paying attention. I certainly am uncomfortable still talking about him as a football player because of everything that's got on off the field. But I do think he showed some improvement. And I think just because it's funny and it's easy to make jokes,

I think we've overrated the fact that Joe Flacco came in and they made the playoffs. they were five and one with Deshawn Watson as a start. They weren't a better team with Joe Flackle. I'm sorry, I'm not going there with you guys. I'm not making those jokes. But I think there's a chance that Deshawn Watson plays like a top half of the league quarterback next year. And if that happens, I think that changes the entire dynamic of this divisional race and the

AFCs. You really feel that comfortable about the way that he played over those last few games, the way that he was seeing things and how he was playing on time and within rhythm of the offense. I do. I just watched the games. I think there were a lot of drops. I think he had to force some balls into tight windows,

but he looked more comfortable than he had in the previous nine or eight games that he had played. And I thought Stefanski had done a better job of kind of coming to him and the style of play he likes. Because, like, that's kind of the thing we didn't talk about in Houston was they never ran a lot of play action. They didn't run like a lot of screen past. They didn't do a lot of that scheme stuff. It was like what we're saying with Cincinnati. They like to go in the gun and Deshaun Watson would read stuff out. I thought they went to more of that stuff in the last three games.

and you could see his comfort grow. By no means was he like a top 10 quarterback playing in those games, but you could start to see the flashes and you could start to see the improvement. I think his arrow was pointing up at least, and that's a big development for this team because if he stays the same, there's no point in talking about any of the other pieces around this, around him because of his contract. I have serious questions about his ability to be a top half of the league quarterback.

I went back and I watched the Baltimore game this morning, and that was the game that people were holding up. Remember how he played in the Ravens game? They were down 31 to 17 with 11 minutes left, and they end up winning this game. And this is what people have fixated on. It's this fourth quarter where they win the game. He made like two throws on those couple drafts.

He made one that was a beautiful throw to Amari Cooper with throwing it over Jedvi and Clowny in a crowded pocket. It was a beautiful throw. And then he threw another stop route low to Amari Cooper that was just another really nice throw, very good placement. Other than that, it's a one-yard, completion to David and Joku that he takes for 20 yards.

It's another one-yard completion of David and Joku that he takes for 10 more. A one-yard completion to Jerome Ford. A 10-yard scramble where Kyle Van Nuoy just misses the tackle, which should have been a zero-yard game. For the most part, there was not a lot of heavy- MVP for that. We almost gave Brock Bernie MVP for doing the same thing. We certainly did.

But I'm so troubled by the process and by what he looks like in the pocket. Even in that Ravens game, I just think he has, he looks so uncomfortable and looks there's no smoothness in the way that he moves in the pocket. His eyes are dropping. It's very herky jerky. There are no subtle movements.

If there's any sort of pressure, his eyes are coming down and he's scrambling and he's looking panicky. The only quarterbacks in the league last season, the only guys with a lower success rate when pressured, were Trevor Simeon, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, and Tommy DeVito. That was it. I just don't think that he is comfortable enough navigating that space when things get messy.

And I don't think that's going to get better after missing 10 games again last year. This guy has played 12 football games in the last three seasons. And I still think, even in that Ravens game, that people have tried to hold up as this example of what he could potentially be again, he looks like somebody that is no longer comfortable playing quarterback at this level. I totally, I think that's fair. if you're analyzing his entire season and his entire tenure with the Browns, I think there was improvement over those last couple games.

I think there were a couple of plays, especially against the Ravens, he had the one throw to Elijah Moore on the sideline where he kind of sidestep pressure and made a throw. That was a really nice play. That's like the best play he made in that game. Yeah, I just saw like, I think like eight of those flashes

over that three game stretch. And that was enough for me to be like, all right, I remember what this looks like. And if he can get those little things down, like the micro level accuracy, I agree, it's a problem. The comfort in the pocket and the dropping of the eyes, that was sort of an issue in Houston,

and it kind of went away at the end, but it did crop back up. And I do think he's improved in that area. The one thing that you pointed out is the success rate. Because even over that stretch, I pointed out, and I read the numbers, his success rate was still bottom of the league. And I think that speaks to the down-to-down consistency

that we're talking about, like accuracy, with the decision-making, the eyes. My one question with him was the top, level talent still going to be there when he got back and played after the layoff, the hiatus and everything that went on. And I saw the flashes and the flashes were enough for me to think if he gets some consistent playing time in a second year in this offense where he actually has live reps, I think he could be the 16th best quarterback in the NFL, the 15th best quarterback in the NFL. And I think that dramatically changed the conversation around

this team. You're talking yourself into the flashes more than I'm allowing myself to, because the down-to-down inconsistency and the down-to-down discomfort in the pocket, that's something I just can't get over. The flashes are there. There are moments where it's like, oh, yeah, that is one of the most talented

quarterbacks in the league. That throw to Elijah Moore is the perfect example. It's the first thing I wrote down in my notes. The second thing I wrote down is runs into a sack on third down on the second drive after weird pocket navigation on the previous play. That's the problem, right?

You have that flash, but then you come back to the bones of the way he's playing quarterback right, now and I just can't get over what it feels like to watch him navigate that space down in and down out. And I just don't understand how that gets better after taking most of last season off again. I think it's just plain. I would say this. If I were to ask you, like, what would you think would be the first thing to go after a long layoff from playing quarterback? I would say comfort in the pocket. I think you just have to feel it. But the long layoff hasn't stopped. He's still had

the long layoffs. There's another one that just happened. That's my concern is that it's, there's no reason to think it's going to get better after the amount of time he still has not played football. That's a good point. I got nothing for you there. Yeah. So I get it because the flashes, you can, it's, they're, they're appealing. You can talk yourself into them. But I just think that the way that he's moving in the pocket and just the lack of smoothness in that entire operation, I just can't get over that. And maybe I'll be wrong, but I think that they still have to do a decent amount of scheming around his weaknesses moving forward. And that, that's a tough thing when you're paying your quarterback $65 million a year.

I will say this. Bringing in Jerry Judy is not the best for down-to-down consistency for your quarterback. It's kind of ironic that one of the talking points with O'Dell leaving was like, oh, he doesn't adhere to the timing of the offense. And then he's bringing Jerry Judy of all people. I will say this. Some of this falls on Kevin Stefansky in the offensive structure. This is not a team with a well-designed drop-back passing game.

And I think they know that. And I think that they went out and tried to improve that this offseason. they remade their offensive coaching staff. Part of that is Bill Callahan leaving not by their choice. But they went out and they got Ken Dorsey to be their offensive coordinator. They hired a couple new offensive assistants. And I think a big reason for that was a more diversified, just reliable dropback passing game compared to what they used to have.

And a couple guys who can come in and try to bridge some of these ideas to allow Deshaun to be a little bit more comfortable. Tommy Reese comes from the college game. He's their new tight ends coach. He's kind of a past game consultant for them. his familiarity with that RPO world and not just minoring in it with the way that they used to, but having somebody that can come in and be like, this is what has to be our vision for how to put this guy in the best place to succeed.

They did some of that with the amount of empty that they were using. Just by my back of the napkin math, I think they used the second highest percentage of empty dropbacks in the league when he was playing. Tua was the only guy who was in empty more often because Deshaun Watson was very comfortable with that in Houston. So they've tried to do little things here and there to get him comfortable and bridge those two worlds. But I don't think that they did it enough. And there's a chance they can set him up for success better than they have. But it's still, even with that consideration, it's not enough to get me there where I feel good about what he's going to look like moving forward.

And I'm not going to push back against that. I'm not going to be the one that defends Deshaun Watson on here. It's a shitty position for me to put you in. But I think that I appreciate you trying to find some glimmers of hope. in the way that he played. All right, let's get to the other side of the ball for mine. What do we make of the way the Brown's defense played against the Texans and the way that this season ended for them?

Because so much focus was on the offensive injuries and flaco, and I get it. That was always going to turn back into a pumpkin at some point. But I think that we should talk about the way they played against Houston and the fact that they got absolutely shredded in that game. So if you're looking at that performance and just what the Browns defense looked like in a couple of late season games against good offenses, are there some kernels of doubt that you have about what this unit can be like

moving forward, relying on the style of play that they do? That's a tough question to answer just because there are two ways to answer that. Like over the long haul, over the course of a 17 game season, I have no worries. I think they're going to be a good defense once again. But the question is that high end games, winning in January, going up against the good quarterbacks, that's what I think this style of deep. defense gets exposed. The style of defense,

we're like, we're just going to line up and play. We're going to play cover one. We're going to play cover three. We're going to be a one gap team. We're going to attack off the line of scrimmage and you're just going to have to beat us and how to execute us.

I think it works against certain high level offenses, like against a team like Cincinnati that doesn't, can't go under center and can't do different things. I think it's going to work against them. But against a diverse offense, going up against like a Shanahan style of offense, that style of defense to me is just, it's barbecue chicken.

I don't know how else to put it. You're playing cover three against some of these offensive coordinators out here. You're going to get burnt. And I think when you can see it in the numbers with Cleveland specifically, they had one really bad month in October where their explosive play rate spiked up over 10%. And I think that just speaks to how you unlock this defense from the offensive point of view. You have to create explosives. It's the only way to beat this team.

The bad teams have trouble doing it because they don't have the quarterback. The good teams don't. and I think that's the concern you have as a Browns fan, is even if Deshawn Watson is what I think he could be, and maybe he's a top 10 quarterback this year, I think that's on the table. When you get to January and you have a Jim Schwartz defense going up against Patrick Mahomes and Hady Reed,

I would be concerned. I think that's exactly right. I wish that I had something to add to that, but that was the set of points I was probably going to make, is that against the worst offenses, you're not worried about it because they can just bully them. And you can say, well, of course, you're going to get beat by a CJ

Stroud or the way that Matthew Stafford played against them, like, good quarterbacks are good quarterbacks. Yeah, those are the guys you have to play in the playoffs. If those are the guys that cook you, then you're going to have a ceiling if you rely on this type of defense to be the engine of your team.

If this defense was the seventh best defense in the league and you add an elite offense, an offense could carry you in the playoffs or offense could do at least their half of the lifting, whatever. But this is a team that needs their defense to be dominant if their offense is going to continue to struggle. And I don't think this style of defense, even with the talent they have, can carry them to multiple playoff wins against

good quarterbacks if they continue to play like this. And I would also add that I don't think it meshes well with how they want to play on offense, not necessarily how they're going to play if they do evolve the offense for Deshaun Watson, but how they used to play. You want to be a ball control offense. But then on the other side of the ball, like you're an attacking defense that could give up a big play at any moment. That doesn't really mesh well. It's not complimentary. That's how the 2018 chiefs played.

You are not built on offense like the 2018 chiefs. It's not complimentary. I totally agree with that. But I think that's what happens. And I think that's when you have, and the fact that they play this physical style of defense is downhill, hit you in the mouth style of defense. Like, there's some attrition that's going to build up there.

And you're going to get worse over the middle of the year. And like in October, when injuries start to pile up, and we've seen injuries pile up for this defense specifically, over the last couple years, especially in the secondary where they're playing no-name secondaries in December. It's seemingly every year. Poor Ronnie Hickman in that game against the Texans. I just, it's, and, but that's the problem is, every team has injuries on defense.

You know, the Ravens are able to kind of move in and out of these guys on the second, in the secondary, and it doesn't matter. If one injury to Grant Delpit is going to sink you in the postseason, then your defense is too fragile to beat good teams. And the term that the Rams had their way with them, especially in the second late in that game. And the term that McVeigh uses to talk about this, and when I've talked to him about these kind of ideas before, is it's a regulated defense.

They give you regulated looks. And that's just man, single high, you know what you're getting. If you pull certain levers, you know what you're getting from the other side. And that's okay when you can out-talent people and beat up on bad offenses. But when there are good offenses that can fight back, you're giving them the answers to the test before it even gets started. And that's a problem. against Houston,

the Browns played cover three or cover one on 17 dropbacks. C.J. Straud was 14 of 17 on those plays for 234 yards and two touchdowns. 13.8 yards per attempt, 0.72 EPA per dropback. For context, that's like three times an MVP level quarterback. You can't do that. And there is a game, there's a play on, I think the first or second drive. The Texans come out and 12 personnel, but they're in the gun. and the Browns are in single high

and they have eight guys walked out into the box. Why? Why? What's the worst thing that can happen? They're going to hand the ball off in the shotgun for four and a half yards that one of the least efficient running teams

in the league. And that's my concern is that when this thing is humming because of the defensive talent and because Jim Schwartz can really lean into this style, it is beautiful. It's the most dominant defense

in the NFL. The success rate down in and down out is still good. But teams can hunt out explosives against you in a way that ultimately is going to be your undoing. And if they don't step outside of this sort of plan and those regulated looks, I think they're going to continue to run into problems, even with the amount of talent that they have.

I feel like that's like the whole key to football, like in, in 2024, is that term regulated looks and getting defenses into those regulated looks and avoiding situations where you're not getting those regulated looks. Like that's the secret sauce to every Shanahan offense ever. They're all cover three merchants. They're all, like, base cover three is what we need. If we don't get it, we're fucked. There, that little space in between the two hook zones and cover three.

That's where they live. That's where they exist. And these coaches are just so good at picking those defenses apart, manipulating those defenses. Kyle Shanahan and Shaw McVeigh cut their teeth in the, in the NFC West against the Legion of Boom, like the Elder Legion of Boom. They know how to unlock those defenses.

Kyle Shanahan was doing it every day against Dan Quinn in practice. You can't do that against these new offensive coordinators. You have to have answers. You have to have different pitches. Like Mike McDonald, we could talk about like how creative his schemes were and like his designs and his disguises. They were good because they could play any type of defense, any type of front any week.

That's exactly right. And they felt comfortable doing it. Yeah. And the Bill Pellichick defense, like the secret to that dynasty, at least on the defensive side, was that ability. And we're seeing the best defenses in January can do that. The worst defense is the ones that get exposed. January like Buffalo's don't do that. They line up and play and rely on out executing it.

And if you look at it, they were 31st last year in the amount of two high coverages that they ran over the course of the season. And that's fine when you can bully teams. But then when you get into the playoffs and you're playing against good offenses, it's not that just they got cooked and man the entire game. They were trying to run different coverages, but they're not comfortable doing it. The techniques when they're trying to play that way just aren't sound. They got beat on an out and up against cover two, but John Metchie was an explosive play. that little, I can't remember what the play is called, but like the little burner post that they threw a touchdown to

Dalton Shulton, the play that we've seen a million times from all these Shanahan offenses, that was quarters. They're just not comfortable playing that way. And if you're not comfortable playing a variety of coverages, these teams are going to be able to take advantage of you. And there were a couple throws that CJ Stroud made in that game that are bonkers throws.

They're like, oh, well, what are you supposed to do about that? That's the problem when you play this type of defense against an elite quarterback. They know where the ball has to go. And if there is an ounce of an open, an inch of an opening, they're going to find it. And those are the types of quarterbacks you're going to consistently have to play in December and January.

So it's not as simple as hand-waving away the few spectacular plays that a guy like that makes because that guy is going to be on the other side and every other playoff game you're going to have to trot out over the next couple years. And sometimes it's Patrick Mahomes. Yes. Oftentimes it's Patrick Mahomes. All right. Last one here.

We're going to do the same question for the Steelers because I think it's a great question and it's a wide ranging question. So what was your looming question, lingering question from 2023 about the Steelers? I mean, this is a lingering question from like 2020 to 2020. Whatever been elsewhere, you got off. This is like how good is this team outside of the quarterback position? If they get average quarterback play, what is the ceiling on this team? Let me give you some numbers over the last four seasons.

They've won 40 games. They're averaging 10 wins a season over the last four seasons. They've made the playoffs three times in that. range. Over that time, they're 25th in EPA per dropback. Ahead of the Bears, the Broncos, the Pats, the commanders, the Giants, the Panthers, and the Jets. Those teams have a combined for a 360 win

percentage over that time. The Steelers have won 60 percent of their games. Eight best in the NFL. You're not supposed to be able to win 40 games over four years with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league, and they're doing it. So my question is, if they get average quarterback play from Russell Wilson, Justin

Fields, whoever it is, and I, Like, I don't think that's as outlandish as a lot of people might think just because I saw Arthur Smith get at like a top 10 offense out of Marcus Marriota two years ago. If that happens, what is this team ceiling? What do you think the answer is on the level of supporting cast that we're talking about outside of the quarterback? Because I actually really enjoyed going back and studying this and trying to figure out like, okay, who's good? Like, if you're watching the Steelers on each side of the ball, who is good? What sort of conclusion that did you come to about just the quality of the roster overall outside of the quarterback? I think this is outside of the, it's kind of hard to answer to it.

I think if you give them league average play, I think this is an 11 to 12 win football team with how they're built. I don't think they have 11 to 12 win talent like from the outside looking in from like the 30,000 foot view. But I think if you combine the coaching, the defensive pieces, the defensive line, the front seven specifically with what they might be able to do in things. with that offense, I think this is a team that can win a lot of football games and make the playoffs comfortably. Now, when you get into the playoffs, I'm done with them. I don't think they can win the game in the playoffs. But I think they can be a good regular season team. They can be a regular season team that we're at least talking about as a contender. But like the smart people are like, they're not actually going to win anything. They're not as good as the record applies.

I think they can be that team. I'm really encouraged by what they can look like out front on both sides of the ball. Maybe not early on this year, just because you're probably dropping two rookies in your starting lineup and that's going to take a little while to come along. But what they will potentially be able to do, especially as a run blocking unit, probably early on, they have a chance to dominate people. Project drones is a long way to go as a pass blocker. We knew that.

It was going to be a steep development curve for him coming out of Georgia. It's why he wasn't a day one starter. But as a run blocker, he's really, really talented. Going back and watching that offensive line last year, I really like Isaac Salamo. He's a really good player. And when he's your best offensive lineman, which he was last year, that's not a good situation. The hope is by the middle of this season, he's your third to fourth best offensive lineman with Fontaineau and Zach Frazier getting dropped in there.

And that is a really good situation. Even a guy like Darno Washington, the idea of Darno Washington as a run blocker is more exciting right now than the reality of it. When you go back and you watch him, there's some sloppiness, there's some technical stuff to clean up. But the power is evident. So year two of that group with more reinforcements coming, I think they have a chance to be truly dominant when they want to run the ball by the end of the 2024 season. Yeah, that's why I think they have the formula.

I really like their front seven a lot. I think they can bully teams out of the things they like to do on early downs, which is a big key to play in defensive football in the modern NFL. But back to the offense, like, the offensive line I'm excited about, the tight end group in Arthur Smith offense, I'm really excited about. I agree, Darnow Washington is more of an idea than a player. But if you can get him cooking in some of those,

like, John Hussmith plays, like, give him a throw to the flat and let them just get out in space and just pull over cornerbacks, I think you can have a good thing there. You can get some explosives from that. I think the run game is going to set up those regulated looks we were talking about, and that's going to make things easier for Russell Wilson. That's going to make things easier for adjusted fields. I think if they could just get competent quarterback play,

out of Russell Wilson, which is, I've gone back and forth on this, who I think should start. But the more I think about how this team has won in the past, I really think Russell Wilson's going to start the full season. Yeah, I think so too. And I honestly, it's tempting to talk yourself into the upside with Justin Fields and what he could look like within this situation. But I just feel like there's more reliability and more of a known quantity and what Wilson is going to be.

And I would probably make that bet if I were the Steelers, even if I think it's a little bit cowardly. Yeah, it is cowardly. but this team won has won over the past four years by not turning it over the football. And I think you get that out of Russell Wilson. I don't know if you can get that out of Justin Fields.

My problem with Justin Fields, why I could never really get on board with him, he just always makes the losing play in the fourth quarter. It finds a way to make the losing play, whether it's a fumble. And I don't think Tomlin's going to go for that. I don't think that formula works with how the Steelers kind of run their team. So I really see Russell Wilson starting.

But if you could just get, if you get that run game, and you get that deep play action pass game going, Russell could still do that. He maybe can't do the other things. What do you think about the over the middle play action game, though? Because the elements of an Arthur Smith offense and when they were successful don't seem to apply

to the way that Russell Wilson wants to play the position. And that's my biggest concern. But the same concerns apply to Justin Fields. So I just don't know stylistically how these two quarterbacks fit with the best version of an Arthur Smith offense. That's another thing that I just can't really get over or compute in my head. Yeah, that's a good point.

And I think that was the problem with Sean Payton too, Sean Payton's offense. I know there's not like a tremendous amount of overlap there, but Sean Payton does like to utilize the middle of the field. And he was uncomfortable doing it. Sean Payton wasn't able to unlock that part of his game. We know it was never unlocked in Seattle. So I think that's a valid concern.

But like you said, you're not getting that from Justin Field. So I don't think that affects the quarterback position, but I do think it affects the ceiling for this offense. and why I'm not as bullish as I would be on the scene based on the defense. What do you think about Pickens after going back and watching him? I think he's a good player. I think he was a little overhyped just because of the flash plays, just because of like the blocks that don't really matter on the backside of runs.

I don't think he's the route runner you need to be the number one alpha dog receiver type that he's going to end up getting paid as down the line. He's not a reliable route runner. I think he's an explosive route runner, if that makes sense. The effort is lacking like 25% of the time, and it's frustrating to watch. The thing that I was surprised by going back and watching him, he has a better feel for space and zone coverage than one of these like true X outside the numbers players, I think typically does. And that's why I'm intrigued by his upside as more of just an outside the numbers ball winner and slant runner. Because I do think he has a better feel for space than I gave him credit for when I started watching him.

but I think that you're right. The refinement and just the overall down-to-down consistency, those are two things that I would continue to be worried about. I think he's a high-end to 1B type of player, which is fine, and I think that's a good player to have it. I wouldn't let that player leave my building if I was the Steelers. But if they're planning on building their passing game around him, I think they're going to be disappointed,

even if he does improve over the next couple of years. That's why I think they need another option. I mean, even after drafting woman Wilson, it just feels like they need another receiver somewhere along the way. they're probably sniffing around one, but it would have to be the right move. This team is never going to overpay for that sort of move. So I wonder if there's something coming down the line at a,

that's a modest swing. I guess that's how I would put it. If Van Jefferson was good, he would be the type of receiver they need, unfortunately. Let's talk about the defense, because you mentioned the front seven. The biggest takeaway I had watching their personnel, just because, again,

it's somebody that we haven't gotten a lot of exposure to. He was a rookie last year. He was a part-time player. I'm extremely excited about Keanu Benton and what he can eventually become. I think he deserves more time. He had 53 pass rush snaps on third down last year. That's not a lot of reps.

That's not a lot of opportunities. He's the sort of player where I think as his playing time cranks up and Ogun Jobies potentially goes down. If you have Benton, Alex Highsmith, who I think is awesome. T.J. Smith and Cam Hayward will see what happens with the contract.

They have a chance to have a dominant front this year, like a truly dominant front. My questions are what happens behind them. Joey Porter Jr. is a very good player. We know what Mika Fitzpatrick is. I think the Patrick Queen and Dante Jackson of all of this and whether or not those can be solid, reliable pieces for them could swing this one way or the other. I'm not exactly sure how I feel about that equation.

I think Queen, I'm 50-50 on. I wasn't a huge fan of his game coming out of LSU. I wasn't a huge fan of his game the first couple years in Baltimore, but then you put Rochond next to him. Roquant kind of teaches him football, it seemed like. You could see it on the field at times, and he became a far different player, and I wonder if that carries over.

I wonder if the education from Roquant Smith carries over to Pittsburgh. That's my question with him. Dante Jackson, as a Panthers fan, I'll just tell you right now. Don't get your husband. He's fast, and he runs in a straight line, and that's all he does. That position group specifically is the one that gives me the most pause about this team. the other outside corner spot other than Porter and what's happening at the nickel. You know, Deshawn Elliott, who they signed is their other safety next to Mick if it's Patrick.

He's just, he's almost like an NPC at this point, but not in a bad way. He's just like a solid NFL safety that you drop into this situation. He plays like 800 snaps a season. You don't really notice him in the best possible way. So that with Minka, I'm fine with how that could play out. But the corners specifically, I'm just a little bit surprised they weren't more aggressive in trying to add to that group. because Dante Jackson's entering the final year of his deal and you don't have a proven nickel option.

So how that shakes out, I think that's the spot similar to the other wide receiver position that I'm most watching. But I do think, like, if you have a dominant front seven, you can work around that. So they have some goals there. And I love Terrell Austin, man. I've always loved going back to Detroit

when he was coordinating those defense, like he has my sword. He always does interesting stuff on defense. Their game plans are always good. They try stuff. You could tell they're well coached with how they pass routes off. So I have a lot of faith in this defense, like holding up their end of the bargain. My question is with the quarterback position and the offensive coordinator, but the pieces are there.

Yeah, I have a lot of faith in that unit, again, because I just think that the front seven has a chance to be truly dominant. Keanu Batten is one of those guys, and I'm very excited to watch as he gets more opportunities and more playing time in year, too. They bully offenses, man. They bully offenses. All right. That's all we got. Stephen Ruiz. Thank you very much, sir.

Really enjoyed that. It was a good division. I gave you a good division. I appreciate it, man. That's a good compromise for all the work that you had to do coming out to this show.

So I sincerely appreciate you spending the time to do this with us. I appreciate it. If you would have made me watch Bryce Young film, I would have ghosted you would not return your text.

I'll take that into a consideration moving forward. All right, guys, that's all we got for today. Sincerely appreciate you coming to hang out with us. This is our last show before I am back from vacation.

I will be back next Tuesday. June 4th, we will be back on our regularly scheduled programming, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday for the rest of the off season as we get to training camp. So be prepared for that schedule to click back into place. I sincerely appreciate everyone who joined us banking a couple of these shows for when I was out of town. Definitely did not want the feet to go dark. Wanted you guys to still have a couple shows a week when I was taking a little bit of time off.

So hope you enjoyed those. Excited to be back with you guys for the rest of the summer before we get to camp. For now, that is all we've got. Enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.