The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Lingering Questions about the AFC West

Episode Date: June 14, 2024

Derrik Klassen comes back to the show to ponder the questions we all still have about the AFC West after the 2023 season.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. Our old buddy Derek Klesson is going to be joining us for the next iteration of our lingering questions series. If you've missed any of the previous ones, we're doing a show about every division in the NFL, trying to answer some of the questions we feel like weren't answered by the end of the 2023 season. For one reason or another, you know, for example, the Broncos.

You know, what was the Broncos offense by the end of the year? They were out of playoff contention. I don't know how closely people were paying attention to what Sean Payton was doing, maybe outside of what he had to do with Russell Wilson. So dug into a couple of teams that I think had some pretty relevant lingering questions as to how they relate to what they're staring down in 2024. So always enjoy chatting with Derek really loved digging into this stuff with him. So let's get to it.

Joining us now from Leacher Report, from Reception, Reception, a wonderful friend of the show. It's our buddy Derek Klaasden. Derek, how you doing, man? I'm doing great today, man. It's, uh, well, other than it is like 100 degrees, uh, in the Central Valley of California. So other than that, I'm doing quite good, but, you know, isn't that just how it goes at this time of year? When you get past a certain point of the calendar, it's always 110 degrees in the Central Valley of California. Exactly. I think since I've been back here, there's been like, we had one summer maybe where it like barely ever got over 100 and that felt like an absolute miracle. But other than that, it's,

104 every other day. I would never be able to survive. Truly never be able to survive. I am not built for that sort of thing. I'm not sure I'm built for the series that we've been doing here over the last couple months or so. It's been fun, though, to do a lot of these deep dives

on pretty much every single team in the NFL and try to answer some of these lingering questions we have from 2023 that we didn't feel got properly addressed by the end of the season, whether because we stopped paying attention, these teams became irrelevant, one reason or another. But I'm very excited to dig into today's show because we have a lot of high profile teams in this division,

but I actually am more excited to talk about the lower profile teams in this division. When I went back and started doing this exercise, I really realized how much I was looking forward to talking about the Raiders. And that is still true as we dig into this. So very happy that you were willing to join us. And I appreciate you taking on this sort of work for a podcast series that you don't have any part of. I've roped in like five or six suckers to do this with me. And I sincerely appreciate the time you guys have all put into it.

No, it's great. I'm glad you said that, though, because, like, honestly, the team I'm probably most excited to talk about here is the Broncos. So, which is not, I think going in, it's not what I thought was going to happen. But it's, you know, when you're in the middle of June and you're kind of delirious and looking for the most interesting things to talk about, that's what happens. Let's start with the Raiders, because that's the organization or that's the order that my notes are in right now. So why don't you give us your biggest lingering question that you have from 2023 about the Las Vegas Raiders? What is this quarterback room? And then more specifically, what is Gardner Minshu? Because I think what happened last year was we were all so excited with the Colts about Anthony Richardson, right? He looked great in the little bit that he was able to play. I mean, relative to being a rookie and all that, super exciting.

And then he goes out for the year. And it's like, all right, we should probably stop watching the Colts. Who cares anymore? This isn't that interesting. But then you kind of wake up at the end of this season. And it's like, wait, the Colts are literally. dropped pass away from being able to go to the playoffs. And it's all because Gardner Minchie was able to kind of hold down the fort for that team.

I think what happened during the season, though, is we kind of looked at, we looked at the fact that we got to the end of the season. It was like, oh, the Colts won nine games or whatever. Gardner Minchew's overall, like, you know, your just basic stats were not that bad. Like, they were kind of respectable. And it's like, oh, Gardner Minchie must have done the thing again. He did an admirable job. But now, to some degree, that was true.

But you watch him play, man. I don't know. I think Shane Steichen is maybe like next up in terms of the play callers. What he was able to get out of Minchu is almost miraculous, like wizardry type stuff. Because really with Gardner Minchu, all you're getting is the quick game, pretty good. Like, he'll throw it pretty well. Like he's on time. He's accurate.

RPO's great. He can do all that stuff. Anything else, man. It was Shane. The one other thing I would add is that occasionally you get a big playoff of a second reaction throw. Occasionally. He can make a guy miss in the pocket and he can make something happen off schedule every once in a while, even though he is physically limited. But that's all I have to add to your list. So if you were trying to figure out where the biggest gaps are between what his production

looked like on paper and what his play actually looked like and how Shane Steichen filled in some of those gaps, where would you start with that? I mean, I, I would start with just a lot of their RPO game and a lot of their quick game, I thought, was just really well designed. I think they did a really, really good job of getting, you know, Josh Downs, I think was kind of a revelation for this team because Michael Pittman is nice on the outside, but they kind of needed somebody who could just win really quick from the slot. And I think Josh Downs was able to never had somebody like that.

Like over the last five to seven years, that type of skill set has not existed within their offense on any of these coaching staffs. 100%. It's been a very, very long time. And Downs was able to kind of immediately be that. And there were a couple of instances where, you know, just rookies not in the right landmark. That's going to happen. But like otherwise, he was able to get open consistently.

I think Stuyken did a really good job, whether it was motions, some of the shifting stuff that they were doing, getting him into stacks where he didn't have to deal with press. Like, he did a really good job of letting Josh Downs just kind of go to work and be free. And I think that helped a lot. The RPO's was another, another big one, at least for the, you know, 10 to 12 quarterbacks I've charted so far. Garden Minch's RPO rate is about as high as any of them. it's close to 10%, which checks out. Like, that's just kind of how Gardner Minchew wants to play.

And it's kind of what Shane Steichen is used to with the offense that each come from. So that made a lot of sense. I think the other thing is like they just really, really simplified. Shane Steichen knew what Gardner Minchew was able to get away with and what he was not able to get away with. And what I mean by that is Gardner Minshu cannot throw the middle of the field. Like on throws, when I charted him, so I chart eight games for all these quarterbacks. So it's not like a perfect sample.

but on throws in the middle of the field, 11 to 20 yards, Gardner Minshu was 15 of 32. That's just accuracy. Maybe the completion percentage was a little different, but that's just accuracy. That's really bad, dude. When you were completing less than 50% of your passes in that range, like that just speaks to me,

like his confidence in that area, his anticipation in that area, his arm talent in that area is not good. But they just didn't throw it a lot. And Shane Steichen did a much better job of like, all right, man, you're just going to throw curls on the outside. we're going to try to let you throw a bunch of speed outs. We're going to simplify the vertical game by just letting you throw like slot fades and go balls.

They didn't really throw like posts deep down the middle because Minshu can't do that. So Shane Snykin just kind of went like, all right, man, you cannot throw between the numbers. Fine. Then we're just not going to throw between the numbers. And I think that kind of like just took away some of the bad plays that maybe Minshu might have otherwise in a more balanced offense. And I feel like that once they did throw in the middle of the field, they're almost all RPO's or play action. where you're trying to drain out that area and just give him simple decisions.

And so all of this in totality, I think brings us to an interesting question. Why Gardner Minshu? And why Gardner Minchu at this price? Because that's my biggest concern here with why the Raiders were willing to go out and do this. What is the best case scenario for signing a player like Gardner Minshu

and dropping him into the current iteration of the Las Vegas Raiders? I think you only have to go back a year to talk yourself into it. And that's what Baker Mayfield became for the bucks. You're getting a guy that, you know, is somebody that's been a fringe player, is not necessarily considered a locked starter, but can we get good enough play out of him to make us a potential playoff team? Here's the problem with that line of thinking and trying to turn

2024 Gardner Minchu into 2023 Baker Mayfield. I think it's twofold. One, Baker Mayfield signed for $4 million to go be the Buccaneers quarterback. The Raiders gave Gardner Minshu $15 million guaranteed. And if you look at every other guy who's kind of been that fringe range as a starter. Jcobie Percette, what Sam Darnold got from the Vikings. It's almost twice as much guaranteed money for Minshue than any of those other guys. I think Darnold was at like $8.5 million in Minchus at 15.

It's a decent chunk of change compared to the guys who I would consider his peers. The second problem with this, when you're making those sorts of bets, and I support those sorts of bets sometimes, you're like, I'm betting against the infrastructure here. I'm betting against this guy's last stop. I'm betting against what Baker Mayfield was when he played for those Carolina Panthers.

You just said Shane Steichen is one of those guys. It's the opposite. There is such a little chance for Gardner-Minshu to be better with this Raiders team and better with Luke Getzzi than he was for Shane Steichen last year. And I just think it's so, so hard for you to get any sort of value on the contract you gave Gardner-Minshu in free agency, even if from the outside looking in, it seems like it's a modest sum of money. I 100% agree with that. And like the point about Stuyken, it's like,

I think if you looked at what Gardner Minchu is and just went, who are the best play callers in the entire league if I could match Minchu with just anybody? It's probably like, okay, Andy Reid could probably get a little bit more out of him. Maybe like Sean Payton, like at his best, like, could get more out of him. Other than that, man, like, it might be Shane Steichen who is able to get the most out of a player of Minchu's skill set. And then the other thing that I would mention about, you know, this being some approximation of the Mayfield, bet. Mayfield's arm is way better than Minch's.

He was the number one overall pick in the draft. He was the first overall pick for a reason. Was it perfect? No. But there was something there that indicated he had some degree of talent where Mayfield is the first overall pick and Minchew is an undrafted free agent. And so I think that even makes this bet an even slimmer chance of being something like the Mayfield thing.

So it's just, yeah, I don't know about this one for Las Vegas. That's the best case scenario just when you look at the brinket broad strokes. As a player, what I would compare this bet to is that you are getting, in my opinion, a slightly more refined version of the Taylor Heineke that the Falcons signed to the contract they signed him to last year. Because that's what you see. Even if there is some second reaction ability and feel to his game, where he makes a ton of guys miss in the pocket, I actually appreciate the way he operates in that space. He just doesn't have the physical tools to make anything out of it. And that's what happens is even if you have some of these

backup types that have some chutzpah and that you can appreciate that about their game, the limitations are just so evident that it's hard to get excited about where you can go with that type of guy within your offense. That brings me to the other guy that is in this room. What do you think about Aiden O'Connell in this mix and compared to a guy like Gardner-Minchou? So I think purely as pastors, they're actually really, really similar. Like when I watched Hayden O'Connell last year, the things that really struck me about what he was able to do, it's like, all right, he'll play on time. I think his quick game operation was really good.

There were even instances where, like, he clearly understood what leverage certain defenders were playing with in different types of coverages and was like, able to throw away from it. I was like, okay, you know, for a rookie, this is this dude's clearly thinking about the game. This to me is at least a guy who's going to stick around and understand what's going on for a long, long time. His accuracy is not special, but I thought within one to 15 yards was like pretty good. I totally agree with that, by the way. His placement away from defenders in the intermediate area of the field, I was consistently impressed by. It's little stuff. It's like putting the ball over the right shoulder, putting the ball outside when you have to.

His feel for where to place it in those areas of the field for a rookie, I thought was actually pretty notable when going back to watch him. He plays like a guy who came into the league at 23, 24 years old and is not that talent. Which is to say he's smart and understands the ways to get the most out of his body, which again, that's what Minchu had to be early on and that's what he still is now. I think the major difference between those two, though, I would say O'Connell is a, I think his arm is a little bit better than Minchus. I think he's a little bit more able to drive the ball over the middle of the field. So if that's something the offense wants to do, I think he's going to have that unlocked on the flip side. Minchu is a better athlete. He's got more creativity to him.

O'Connell, O'Connell other than maybe like Joe Flack of last year, might be like the least. mobile quarterback in the entire NFL. Like, that dude has cement feet. He looks like Officer Farva, and he moves like you would assume Officer Farva would move if he were playing quarterback in the NFL, unfortunately for him. Exactly. And you know what? 15 years ago, probably not a huge deal.

Today, when literally even the worst quarterbacks can move a little bit, it's a problem. Here's what I would say, though. I agree with you on this. I do think that even if he's a bad athlete, he is smart enough that he understands. that he understands where his outlets are late in downs, and it does lead to negative play mitigation. He doesn't get set outside of that rater game, or outside of that charger game.

If you remove the charger game from the stats, his pressure to sack rate and some of those, like, sack mitigation numbers actually looks pretty good for a guy that is a objectively bad athlete, and I think that goes back to how smart he is. I think he understands where he has to get with the ball late and downs when early options are taken away from him. And the mental side of this, he's a guy who has a master's, I think, in business technology from Purdue.

He was in college for a very long time, so that's part of it. But I was talking to somebody on that Raider staff recently, and we were discussing just how much that offensive system puts on the quarterback. It's almost extinct in the NFL now, that Earhart Perkins way of approaching this, this Patriot-centric thing, where the quarterback does everything. He does protections. He does mic points. It is a quarterback-centric offense. and the degree to which Aiden O'Connell had a handle on that, when Jimmy Garapolo, who had been in the league for eight to ten years and had played in this system, didn't have a handle on it, was extremely impressive.

So I think even if he's limited in some of these areas, he does have enough strengths between the ears that I'm intrigued by what he would be able to do. And that's what makes the minshue thing so strange to me, is that you already had a Gardner Minshu at home and you're paying him nothing. So why did you need to go out and do this other than hand waving at we got a guy who's been a capable player in the NFL? Look at us try to compete.

I 100% agree with that. Like, you know what? If they had to play today is Minchu like three to five percent better, probably. And like the little volatility you get from him being able to do some creative stuff might give you a little something that if you need to really overcome a tough team, a tough matchup, maybe that gives you something. But again, when you're paying an extra $20 million on your capital. for that. Is that really like what's what's the point? Does paying Minchu and starting Minchu

actually win you any more games than O'Connell? And like maybe you can say like the oh you know we went out and paid a guy we're trying like that rallies the locker room for some godforsaken reason but I don't think it does in the case of O'Connell and like this specific Raiders team where it was like

the whole thing last year was like yeah the locker room everybody that was in that building just came together well O'Connell was in that building and Minchew wasn't so like even if you want to make the argument, oh, we went out and paid a guy. This is our guy we're making a push. I just don't, I don't think that that's enough to really justify what's going on here. I want to see him play. If it were up to me, I would want to see him play because I do think that his arm is a notch above what Minshu brings you. And I think his ability to push the ball down

the field is a little bit intriguing to me and a willingness to do that. I don't think he has some crazy good arm, but I do think it's at a slightly different level than what Minshu is giving you. and that is enough to intrigue me about what he could be within this offense compared to somebody that we know what Minshu is. We've seen him enough to know what he is. I would rather see him compared to a guy like Minshu who we know what he is. And maybe that's just a bias toward the unknown and something we've never really seen before in a large clip. But I just am intrigued enough by what O'Connell did last year where he would be the guy I'd want to see in there in order to make the Raiders the most interesting offense they could be. I do agree with that.

The last thing I'll say on the arm, Minchew's, arm takes stuff off the table. O'Connell's arm is not good, but like you said, I don't think it takes anything off the table. It's a great way to frame it. As long as you get there. As long as you get there, you're okay. Let's get to the other side of the ball because my biggest question here is about the Las Vegas Reader's defense, which was very good in the second half of the year. This team was fifth in EPA per play on defense from weeks 10 through 18 last year. Some other stats that I was kind of shocked by. 16.3% of opponent drives ended in a touchdown against the Raiders last year in the second half of the season.

The only team that was better than that was the Patriots. This defense in the back half of the year was pretty darn good. So my question is, how real is this and how much of this could we potentially take into 2024 and beyond? And what I'll say is, I like a lot of the pieces that they have on that side of the ball. I don't think they have a ton of stars. You know, Max Crosby is insane and we can talk about. about that, just how crazily good he is at football and what he allows the rest of the defense

to do. But when they got Jack Jones in there off the street, and they were working with Jack Jones, Epson Morrigot safety, I like Spillane. I think that he's a very capable player. There are a couple weaknesses, but there are guys that when I went back and watched over the last couple days, I was like, oh man, like they brought back Adam Butler and John Jenkins in free agency this year. And when I watched them play, I was like, that makes total sense. Like, they were, they gave them good snaps last year. They have different. differentiated skill sets, like, Butler has a little juice to him where Jenkins is actually a pretty nice space eater. They bring in Christian Wilkins, and it actually makes the interior defensive

line room fall into place in a really nice way because he is a star, and the other two guys are just nice, complimentary pieces. And when you consider them the three of them together, it actually works. Wilkins is a monster on stunts, and this team is really, really good to find passing situations and just stunting and slanting the front. So there's a lot. to like about where they are. I think there are questions about whether this can sustain, but when I went back and watched, I was more impressed than I even expected to be

with what some of these pieces were able to do. Yeah, I think I generally agree with that. Like, I mean, Max is obviously insane. And then even some of the other players, like you said, they don't have a lot of other stars, but the other guys, they do have at least they fit into a role that makes a lot of sense for them. Like, Spalane, he can run and cover.

Like, is he going to come up and crush a guard? probably not, but he can at least... He's undersized, but he can play. The problem is that Diablo is very undersized, and the things they asked him to... Many of the things they ask him to do, he is not equipped to do. I will say, though, that makes, to me,

the Wilkins signing even better because Wilkins, over the past two years, dude, what Wilkins has become as a run defender is astonishing to me. He used to just get creamed by double teams every single time. And now he holds his own, he's able to get into the backfield consistently.

So I think him, I think he'll buy a little bit more space for those undersized linebackers, which again, kind of makes this front fit in a little bit better. Like Wilkins almost has this cascading effect where everything around him makes just more sense now that he's there. So I think that's nice. I do think even though Diablo is undersized and usually I hate these safety to linebacker

conversions. For what he is, I don't think he's that bad. Like, I think he's actually okay. I'm with you on that. I actually think that there's more to him than a lot of the guys who go through a similar sort of transition, but like they have him wind up as a Sam on the line of scrimmage. There's just, but this actually speaks to one of my concerns about this group moving forward is that I do think that there is a fragility to this.

They were the second healthiest defense in the NFL last year, according to adjusted games lost. I can't remember who was number one. I think it was the Rams. They were very, very healthy on that side of the ball. You're watching games in the back half of the season, and they have their entire arsenal guys behind that group outside of really just the defensive tackle room. I'm concerned. They drafted Tommy Eichenberg in the fourth round or in the fifth round.

We'll see how that goes. But at corner specifically, like right now you're looking at Jacorian Bennett as their other outside corner after moving off from McMeek Robertson. And that's before you get any injuries. The guys they have behind the starting safeties, the guys they have behind the starting edge guys. Like, what is Tyree Wilson? So I just think that right now, when those 11 are on the field, this is a good defense

led by, in my opinion, a pretty darn good defensive coordinator and Patrick Graham, but I don't think they're going to be as healthy as they were last year. And if they're not, you need significant contributions from guys like Wilson and guys to take another step if you're going to be even a top half of the league defensive injury start to creep it. I do agree with that. And that's why I think like the lack of stars hurts because a lot of these guys, like we said, they fit into nice roles.

But when you start having to dig into the backups, they don't fit into those roles as cleanly. And I think that's going to be an issue. I'm glad you bring up Patrick Graham, though. it felt like when McDaniel got fired, the inhibitors kind of just came off. It was like, all right, Patrick,

you can go do the stuff that you were doing that got you hired here in the first place. And that's, I think, part of what made this defense kind of find its footing

because I think before that, it, it just felt more stagnant than a Patrick Graham defense was supposed to. It just didn't feel like they were doing as much of the cool stuff. Maybe that's McDaniels,

maybe that, you know, it was even Pierce, just being like, no, you have to kick it up. I don't know what it was, but it just,

felt like once that change happened, Patrick Graham felt a little bit more free to do some of the stuff that he was doing in New York that was like, hey, this guy might be one of the up-and-coming, you know, defensive minds. So I'm hoping that with like another full off season where he really just has everything off and is able to go do whatever, I'm really hoping he can kind of find another stride as a play call it because I think he has something to him. I agree with that.

So I think where I land is, I mean, bullish on just the structure of it and some of the pieces that they have, but I'm not. necessarily writing in, oh, this was a top five defense in the second half of last year. They're going to be a top five defense again. I have enough concerns about some of the, again, the health and just some of the fragility to this where I'm not full speed ahead on them being like really, really good in 2024. That's what I would say. Yeah.

And the other thing I'll add, over the last two years, a lot of defenses have played a lot of bad quarterbacks just because the injuries have been crazy. But they played a lot of really, really bad quarterbacks over the back end of last season. And it was like, they played both of the New York teams who just had a terrible quarterback situation the whole time, like Nick Mullins, Easton Stick, Gardner Minchew, who he's already talked about a lot on this show, Jared Stidham. Like, it didn't play a lot. He played well against them, by the way.

And I'm pretty sure that's why Gardner Minchew is right now the starting quarterback for the Raiders. Right. I mean, there might be something to do that. They did have the one really good game. He had two downfield completions. He had the one on the second reaction throw to Downs, where Downs ran a slant and then took it down the field and he made a guy missing the pocket.

And then he had a deep shot, Alex Pierce on third and one with like seven tight ends on the field where Pierce was the only receiver and he hit him for a touchdown. Those are two of the only deep shots, Gardner-Michu hit over the course of the season and he happens to do it against the Raiders. Exactly. It scarred them.

To their credit, they did play pretty well against Patrick Mahomes on what was it, the Christmas game. So, I mean, it's not like they only feasted on these bad quarterbacks. But it is something that like when you, you know, scale some of the regression a little bit, it's worth considering. Let's get to the Denver Broncos.

What is your lingering question about the 2023 Broncos? My biggest question is, what are we really getting out of Sean Payton? And I don't mean that is like, is Sean Payton good anymore? Like that I think Sean Payton is fantastic. What I mean is like, what are we getting from his offensive identity at this point? Because obviously we've seen with Sean Payton, whether it's three different versions of Drew Breeze, whether it's James Winston, whether it's Teddy Bridgewater. like we've seen him kind of run different offenses and like the bones have been the same but just some of the levers that he's willing to pull have been different for each quarterback and obviously last year with russ the russ offense to a degree is the russ offense and they kind of like retrofitted the rust structure onto what sean peyton does which i guess was close-ish to what he did with like james winston where it was a lot of like we're just going to get under center we're going to run the piss out of the ball and we're going to throw down field play action that was a lot of what they did um and

And that's cool, but I think it was a little bit too limiting for what Peyton wanted to be and what he can be. And I think I'm really interested to see what we're going to get more out of him next year with Bo Nix. Obviously, being a rookie, that's going to be a little bit difficult. But that is what I want to see. What I will say, where I'm not concerned, not concerned about the run game. Like, they, Deshaun Payton run game already is the Sean Peyton run game. If you look at any split, whether it's like counter, zone, power, duo, they're not at the top. in terms of usage, but they're like top half in literally every single run concept.

They run everything under the sun. And I think given the personnel ran it pretty well, you know, Javante Williams can be a little bit blind sometimes. I think when you're running that many concepts, that can be difficult. But I think generally they did a really, really good job of spicing up their run game. They ran a lot of 21 personnel as well, which kind of allowed them to do some of that power counter stuff from understander that they wanted. So the run game I'm not worried about.

it's the passing game. And like what, what is this passing game going to become? Because I think, like I said, we probably saw some approximation of what was the James Winston-esque offense with Russell Wilson. I think with Bonnakes,

we're probably going to get something more like the late stage Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater offenses where they're like last and average at the target over the course of the season. I think we're going to get that style of offense. So I'm curious if we're going to get something that extreme or if he's going to try to find some sort of middle ground here.

It was interesting because they pushed the ball down the field as a part of the core identity of that offense. But there were so many throws underneath. And I want to say they were dead last in the NFL and the percentage of their dropbacks that went over five yards in the air last year. The Denver Broncos with Russell Wilson, which is not to type. That is very surprising. But my theory on that is that was just a Peyton just hammering him over and over and over again. Like you are not turning the ball over. You are not turning the ball over.

It was just a way to kind of put even more guardrails on him combined with the run game. So even though they were throwing the ball underneath a lot, it wasn't necessarily quick game stuff. It wasn't underneath low air yard stuff that would apply to Bow Nix. It was a specific version of it that I think only really applied to last year's version of Russell Wilson. That is exactly what I wanted to get to. So last year, on throws of fewer than 10 yards, under two seconds to throw and taking away screens, they had the fourth fewest attempts. Like, click game was just not in the offense, dude.

Like, it was just not in the offense. They were not running. I mean, welcome to the Russell Wilson experience. Yeah, welcome to the Russ experience. Like, we saw this all in Seattle. And even it sounds crazy when you consider that what you just said about, like, they threw a bunch behind five yards. But a lot of that was like Russ just getting to checkdowns or they were throwing an

ungodly amount of screens. So like, but they weren't actually throwing this like real deal dropback quick game stuff, which is infuriating. especially because, like, that's what Sean Payton is. When you go back and even if you watch the Teddy Bridgewater offenses, which I did, they were running so much like wheat choice, stick, spacing, snag. Did you ever see like any of that more than once or twice a game with Russell Wilson? No.

Even the dropback game was more vertical than that. I mean, there was no element of that in the offense when you go back and watch it. 100%. Like, it was just, it was such a limiting offense. And I think in a lot of ways, we always just look at like, average depth of target, meaning like, is this offense limited or not?

I actually think like the Teddy Bridgewater offenses and the late stage breeze offenses, even though they threw the shortest of anybody in the league, I think they did a lot more and were a lot more interesting than anything we got out of the Russell Wilson, Denver offense last year. Just because I think,

even though some stuff was taken off the table, I think having like way more options in the quick game, I think that was more valuable than some of what Russ might give you down the field. what do you think is that I agree with you on the run game the structure of it and I also like the pieces out front that was one of my other takeaways going back and watching it I think Quinn miners is a really good player at this stage of his career bowls is a solid left tackle I think Powers was fine for them last year Cushenberry got a monster deal for a reason in free agency Mike and Glinchie is what he is you know she's kind of like okay but when you take that line in totality it's probably like one of the best eight to ten offensive lines in the NFL and we saw them for most of the year last year. That group played 95% of the Broncos snaps last season, which was the third highest rate in the league

for a starting group of offensive linemen. So I'm actually encouraged about that group, but the run game was 20th in success rate last year. So we like the structure of it. We like the offensive line. What do you think is the gap between those and the actual final results of what the running game looked like in practice?

I think it's a couple of things. One, I think when the passing offense is not actually that much of a threat. It kind of just allows defenses to tee off on it. I think that was one of their biggest issues. I also think, like I mentioned a little bit earlier, Javante Williams is a super, super talented player, right? Like, he is very strong, very fast for his size.

He's pretty agile. He just, his vision sometimes is baffling to me. Like, just he just doesn't have that, like, you would think for someone his size, he would be a lot more willing to just bang between the tackles and really get downhill and just fight for four yards when there's two yards there, that sort of thing. But he just never really does that.

And I think it led to more of a boom and bust running game than I think, like you said, the offensive line and the structure really should have led to, which is why I really, really loved the Aldragestimate pick. I know he went to the fifth round. I know Audraguistamate's your guy. I love it, dude. I know he went in the fifth round. I think he fell for some, like, health reasons and stuff.

But if he's healthy, I just think he's such a good fit for this. offense because Audrake Estime, is he the most agile runner? Not really. Like, is he going to, you know, just shake a guy out of his shoes at the second level? Not really. But he is a very, very smart runner and he will get downhill and bang between the tackles. And I really think that to fix the efficiency of this rushing offense, that's all that you need. And two, I just, you know, we mentioned Peyton will run every single concept under the sun. Estimate already has some experience with that in Notre Dame. Like, they have a fairly diverse run game. Like, they'll run a bunch of stuff. And I thought he handled all of it really, really well,

especially for a guy who's only 20 years old. So I don't know, I actually like the potential of estimate, maybe not immediately like week one taking over the starting job, but I think at a certain point he can take over the starting job. And then I will say Julio McLaughlin is an interesting player. He's just not big enough to ever be the leadback. So that's going to be the big issue there, which is why I think they kind of need estimate to step up

and be that efficient, get us four and a half yards every time type of back. So there were enough kind of, of kernels when you went back and watched that make you encourage you about what this could look like in a non-russ world, even with a rookie quarterback. Definitely. And I will say, I almost think because they ran so many different concepts, it can be hard to like find an identity sometimes and really like bang out the details and stuff in year one of an offense like this. But now that they're going into year two, like guys are a little bit more comfortable with what's going on. You know, maybe some of the backs have seen more of these concepts more consistently.

You have more reps doing all this stuff. I think some of the details are going to get ironed out here. So I do have a lot of the degree of faith in Sean Payton and some of the consistency in the offensive line that they're going to be able to figure this out. All right. Let's get to the other side of the ball. Mine for the Broncos was,

what do we make of them kind of pulling out of the death spiral that they were in for the first month of the season on defense? If you look at some of the numbers, they were fine essentially after week five. 17th in defensive success rate from weeks 5 through 18. And I really think the answer, and this isn't going to be that exciting. I think that they just became like a normal NFL defense. Like there's nothing overly exciting about them.

You look at the way that they approach things, some of the schematic stuff. We can get into some of the details. But I think it really was just a settling in process that had to happen for a defensive coordinator in Vance Joseph, who was really stepping into a staff and a system that he wasn't necessarily familiar with and was. a little bit pre-made. It's not as extreme as what happened when Rahim Morris went to the Rams a couple of years ago and he was truly the only new piece and he just learned everyone else's defense.

But the passing game coordinator, I think last year was Christian Parker who had been there with previous staffs. If you look at the coverage menu and what they were running, it's different that what Vance Joseph has done in the past. So I really do just think that there was an acclamation period necessary over that first month. And there's some personnel tweaks as well. But that was kind of the unexciting,

interesting answer that I found is that they just settled into being a normal NFL defense for better or for worse. Rahe Morris is the perfect comparison for this because if you remember when Rahim Morris first took over, it was like, he didn't know if he wanted to run more of his stuff, more of the old stuff, like what is the right balance here? How do I strike? What is, what is too much of one thing? What is too much of the other?

This Denver defense very much felt like that. And you even see this with some really, really good defenses. is like, do you remember when Mike McDonald first took over? I was going to bring that up as well. That Dolphins game, dude. That's a great. Exactly. Yep.

They looked like they had no idea what was going on. Kyle Hamilton looked like he might be the worst first round pick in the, in the whole NFL draft. Like, it looked really, really bad at first. And then guess what? They turned out everyone there was actually really, really good. And it just, sometimes you just need to see which buttons work. And I think they, when you don't have immediately great personnel across the board,

sometimes that process. can look really, really, really bad. I'm so glad you brought that up because that game was in my mind as I was going back and watching the Broncos. I was like, remember how terrible the Ravens looked against the Dolphins? The difference is, and I think this is a notable difference, but it's not, doesn't contradict the point. That Ravens team was trying to do so many wonky things, and I think that they just realized

their own limitations early in that season. I think the Broncos just didn't necessarily have their identity. Finding the right buttons to push is exactly right. And some of the things they started to do more of, you know, Vance Joseph is a pressure guy at heart. Like, that's the way that he wants to live. And if you look at the first month of the season, I think there was a passivity to the way they were playing

and the way that he was calling games that is just not in line with his personality. They were 22nd in early-down blitz rate over the first month of the season. They were eighth after week five. And that's even more extreme on early downs. 38% of early downs, they sent five or more guys in weeks five through 18.

that was a top five rate. And so you just saw that. And some of that is they're in base personnel. They're sending all five guys. But they were doing some wonky stuff. You know, they're dropping a guy off the edge. They're bringing a linebacker. They're dropping a guy off the edge.

They're bringing a safety. So I think leaning into that higher pressure, more pressurized world is in line with the way that he wants to play. And I'd actually think it suited this defense over the course of the last two-thirds of the season. It fit the edge rushers specifically, I think. I think would you have edge rushers who are as small as what as what Denver has like they don't have guys who are compiling them by the way they're right getting more of them getting these 250 pound guys but they don't really have like a 270 pound like crush the pocket type like their biggest guys are like 255 260 pounds at most whereas like you also have the nick benitos who are maybe 245 pounds

those are the type of guys you want to be running these sim pressures you want to be dropping them every now and then you want to be looping and stunting them and doing all this crazy stuff, when you're just saying, hey, let's just get our base guys out there and let them get after it, you need guys who push the pot. Like, you need Jadivian clownies for that. You need a Miles Garrett. I mean, obviously, that's an extreme example. But you need guys who are bigger and can actually push the pocket if you're just going to

base rush all the time. I think they eventually realized like, all right, we can't do the just let these 250 pound guys get after the quarterback guy themselves. We got to spice it up a little bit. And when you give those guys a little bit of room to Rome and actually use their athleticism, because that's when you're a smaller guy, athleticism is going to be your strength over raw strength. I think that that was when they kind of started to hone in on what this defense was supposed to be

and where their bread was budded. I'm with you on that. And Browning got healthy down the stretch. I mean, you can just feel the difference when they understood how to utilize those guys. And again, they drafted Jonah Ellis in the third round. Jonathan Cooper and Browning are free agents after this year. So if they want to play with that archetype of edge rusher, they will need them as soon as 2025.

So maybe that part of it is not shocking. The moves they made this offseason. Some of them, I think, perfectly aligned with some of the stuff that we're talking about. They bring in Brandon Jones and Free Agency for Miami. He was arguably the best blitzing safety in the NFL last year. So if you want to live in that world,

he perfectly aligns with who you want to be. Levi Wallace is just the second corner de jour. Can we just get a competent body out there? Like, he, 2024, or 2023 Fabian Moreau is hopefully 2024 Levi Wallace, I get that. Them moving Moreau into a starting spot and dropping McMillian into the slot last year, I think, kind of solidified the back end of that defense.

So all of that plan on the back seven, even if there are question marks without Justin Simmons, I get how that's all supposed to come together. The front, I don't understand how that's all supposed to come together, right? Malcolm Roach and John Franklin Myers, you're bringing in two physical pieces that I think in theory, change the attitude you're playing with and change your run defense. Malcolm Roach is a very good run defender. Who's the nose

in an even front among this group right now? Is it 290 pound Malcolm Roach? I don't get how these pieces are all supposed to fit together. I almost, they should honestly just lean into the idea of chaos

where you're just consistently just moving guys around and just, I mean, this is honestly, the Dolphins did a really, really good job of this last year, where they were just creating fronts after the snap. Like, do you know how many times they sent David Long on runs on rundowns? They would just like, there were so many rundowns last year where they would have the nose in one spot and have David Long behind him.

As soon as the ball would snap, they would switch Boston. David Long was just hammering a guard right away. They should probably just do a lot of that because these guys probably aren't going to just hold their own in the middle like that and like eat up double teams. Like you have to make them come off of double teams before they can even get there. I think that's the type of stuff they have to lean into. The good thing is, Vance Joseph is pretty willing to do that. I think that would be fun.

I mean, because what Drew Sanders is is interesting. He played a little bit on the edge last year. You know, there's who's going to play now at that second linebacker spot. Now that Josie Jewel is gone. They bring in Cody Barton. So there are a lot of questions for me about how the front seven is going to be deployed. But I think that actually might be the right answer. And I kind of hope they lean into that because that, to me, makes sense with the personnel that they have.

Let's get to our next one here. The Los Angeles Chargers, what was your, biggest lingering question from 2023 about the chargers? My biggest question about the chargers was, did they ever really fix the front seven? And did they do it to a degree that matters at all? And what I found, the more I looked into it, it almost seemed like the more I looked into it,

the more complicated my answer was, I think the answer is both yes and no. Which this feels very chargers that you don't actually land up with a meaningful line. It's the only way this can go. Exactly. Okay, so we all though, early on in brandy, with the Brandon Staley era,

they were just one of the most godforsaken, awful run defenses that you could imagine. In 2021, in 2022, they had the worst run defense by success rate. It was like barely over 50%. They were terrible. In 2023, guess what? They were average.

They were like 63%. Well done. We got to a decent spot. They were still kind of not very good in the red zone. You know, like so when, teams really wanted to push them around. They still could kind of do it, and that was a little bit of an issue. But they did get better at defending the run.

The problem is, I don't think it matters at all. One, like, it doesn't really matter moving forward because almost all of the guys that did this for them last year are not returning. Like, of the four leading interior snap guys that they have, where it was Sebastian, Joseph Day, Austin Johnson, Nick Williams, and Morgan Fox. Morgan Fox is the only one who has returned. And look, Morgan Fox is a decent player, but he's like a high-end rotational, like,

okay, low-end starter type. If he's the only, like, a meaningful interior guy you're bringing back, you're probably just going to end up back in the same spot that you were a year or two ago where the interior just cannot beat anybody. It's interesting. I mean, this is a team that did not have a lot of resources to throw around this offseason, right?

I mean, they spent next to nothing in free agency. The only real multi-year contracts they hand. it out were to like will disley you know other than that they were very very cautious in the amount of money that they spent and you only have a certain amount of draft picks and so they use the first top five pick on joe alt which makes all the sense in the world when you look at the way that run game looked last year and what they want that run game to look like fine you need a receiver somewhere along the way they draft lad mcconkey in the second round and then they use their third and fourth round picks on the front seven this was never going to get fixed in one year with all

of the issues that they had with this roster that was, I think, one step away from like a total teard out. So my question for you is, as they bring in this Raven Z, whatever sort of defense that Jesse Mentor is going to run, though they ran in Michigan, what sort of hope structurally does this team have, even if they have personnel deficiencies in those areas where maybe they can bridge the gap a little bit? I think it's going to be really difficult either way. Because so much of what made, to me, the Ravens defense last year, was the spine of that defense.

This is something, you know, Deontes talked about a lot, Natus talked about a lot, the spine of that Ravens defense where you had Justin Matabike, Rochwan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, guys that are playing in the middle. It was kind of had this cascading effect on everything else around it. The charges are kind of built almost the opposite, especially up front where it's like, Khalil Max. still one of the best run defenders in the league. I think he was a better pass rusher than people actually realized last year. It seems like people talk about him like he fell off. And like he did not play well in 2022. He played very well last year.

He played really good last year. And maybe not, again, he's not what he was when he wasn't all pro. But he's still a pretty good player. Joey Bosa, when he's healthy, is still solid. The other rookie they drafted this year was also quite good. So their edge players are good. But they don't have any juice on the interior. I think it's going to be like, it's almost hard to copy paste the defensive structure of what the Ravens were onto this Chargers defense.

Just because the front personnel is so, so, so, so different, especially on the defensive line. Linebacking core-wise, I'm really interested to see what goes on. I'm kind of interested to see how much they put on Colson's shoulders because I think Colson is a fairly smart player. I just don't think he's nearly as athletic as the two guys that the Ravens had last year. obviously Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are about as fast as it gets for linebackers. Colson is a fine athlete, but he just cannot cover as much ground as those guys. So that's what honestly makes this like, you know, the Michigan Raven style of defense kind of hard to almost pin onto this Chargers team again.

The personnel is just so, so different, I think, from what we saw in Baltimore, that it's kind of hard for me to wrap my head around what they're going to do up front. I'm hoping that the moves at linebacker give them a little bit more sturdiness in that area than they've had in like a post-Kenneth-Murray world. Even if Colson's a rookie, you have him and Denzel Perriman, even if it's just competent play at those two spots compared to what they've had to wade through over the last few years. I mean, I think that there's a chance that we see a little bit of improvement there.

All right. I'm going to the other side of the ball. Mine is very granular here with the Chargers because I feel like I've spent so much time watching and thinking about Justin Herbert and those elements of who they are that I don't have any lingering questions there. What I did come away with is that I wanted to go back and watch specifically Quentin Johnson and Zion Johnson for over the last year. Like what are the last two first round picks from the Chargers on offense and what does

that mean for them moving forward? I have very bad news about the Quentin Johnson part of this. It was a disaster. Like I was going back and looking for silver linings. Like is there anything to potentially hang your hat on here? about what he could be in the ways that they could use him. And I don't know if I came away with anything. Greg Roman, I think yesterday was at the podium during OTA

is being asked about Johnson specifically. And he said, we're going to use him in ways he wasn't used last year. Like, he's not just going to be a full-time outside player. That is step one. Like, that is the necessary step one. Because if you go back and watch what Quentin Johnson was at TCU, there was nothing about the player that he was at TCU that would lead you to believe,

he could just be an X outside the numbers receiver. Not even from day one, because I know he's only out there because Mike Williams got hurt, but even as a rookie, like that's not who he was at TCU. They set him up to fail with his usage last year. So if you're going to put him in a spot where he's on the move more, he's catching more balls underneath,

you're trying to get him yak opportunities. That's the way to use him. So I think that there's a chance we get more production out of him last year if his usage is entirely different. but if it's even close to what they asked of him as a rookie, I think that Chargers fans are set up for pretty massive disappointment. I agree with that. What's frustrating about Quentin Johnson is I think purely from like a movement skill

perspective, I still think he has what it takes to play outside. Like I still think he's actually, his speed is pretty good. I think he's more agile than a guy of that size probably should be. You just don't like he, it seems like he's thinking too much every time he's running a route, every time he's like someone puts hands on him,

he just, it seems like he slows down mentally. Like it just, it almost seems like the game happens too fast, but the athletes aren't too fast for him, if that makes any sense. I think that's fair. My concern, though, I think that he struggles against press coverage

of the line of scrimmage. Like he doesn't have a toolbox. He doesn't understand what he's doing there. But even on like second and third level routes, where theoretically he should be somebody that's eating up space and at the top of routes like changing direct. There was a specific. played I'm thinking about, I think it was from the Ravens game, where they're asking him to run

a corner post, and it takes him four steps to throttle down. And I don't know if that's a mental issue or if that's like a change of direction, ability to sync issue. But either way, every single layer of his game where you would ask him to create separation, he could not do it last year. That's why I really think it is a mental thing with him. And maybe in three years he figures this out. But when I watch him run routes, and this is, I was actually, you know, because I was just watching the Teddy Bridgewater Saints offense for a different part of this podcast. Michael Thomas was a great example of he just knew exactly when the cornerback leaned just a little

bit too much and that's when he would go and snap off a route. And even if he wasn't the greatest athlete, it almost made him look more athletic than he was just because the timing of it was so incredible. Johnston has like whatever the exact polar opposite of that is where he just, it doesn't seem like he has that understanding of exactly how to abuse defensive backs when they're like slightly misstepping or how to get them out of position, all that of the stuff. He's kind of just running routes to run routes, if that makes sense, which is to your point, I think they have to simplify his role a lot. And they almost like the best outcome for him or the best way to

use him is probably the way that the Cowboys used CD like really, really early on in his career, where it was just very, very simplified usage from the slot. Obviously, he's not going to be close to that good, but that's probably the best approximation for what you can do with him. I'm even going more modest than that. I'm looking at the Rishi Rice playbook from the chiefs last year, and I am grafting that on to Quentin Johnston. I think that is the best way to deploy him and get something out of him within this offense, because you're not asking a lot of him. You're not asking him to do anything that's refined or nuanced. It's all like crossers and yak opportunities and just get the ball in his hands, which is, this is the funny part, is that.

that I always knew I wanted Quentin Johnston deployed that way. I didn't know that I wanted Rishi Rice deployed that way. In college, he seemed like more of it outside the numbers, like ball winner type. But the funny thing is, the Chargers used Quentin Johnston like I thought Rishie Rice was going to get used. And the chiefs used Rish Rysseh, like I thought Quentin Jonstant should be used. And it's very weird, like the fact that that was the end game and the end result. But I do think that's what happened. The number that I was looking at,

Quinn Johnson last year of 122 receivers with at least 25 targets. First of all, he was 102nd in yards per route run. It's not great. 28th in air yards per target. It was like 13 air yards per target. The guys around him, George Pickens, T. Higgins,

D.K. Metcalf, these vertical outside the numbers players, it's not what he is. That's not what he is. And the fact that he was being used like that, I think it was a non-starter. And I think, at least from what they've said so far, the new offensive staff has some understanding that. And truthfully, they don't necessarily need him to be that this year.

Like, they have so, I mean, Ladmanconki can run, so that's going to help them. But last year, they truly did not have anybody else who could play vertical. And it almost seemed like they landed in a spot where they were like, well, nobody else can do it. So like, first round, first round pick, you got to go figure it out. You got to go do it. And obviously it was a disaster pretty much every single time they tried it. Well, they have the... This is amazing.

DJ Shark is the most... We don't have a guy who can run vertically outside the numbers player. We are going to sign him for nothing and just drop him into that spot. It's probably not going to go well, but we just need someone who could do this one specific thing. So even that is an improvement because you no longer have to ask Quinn Johnston to do that one specific thing. All right, let's get to the other guy as part of this conversation because this one is actually more interesting to me and that is Zion Johnson.

This is why I wanted to do this exercise because I think if you asked or pulled 100 NFL fans and you asked them, how is the first round offensive linemen for the Los Angeles Chargers played in the first two years of his career? Without lying to you, very few of them could give you a good answer. And I didn't even have that good of an answer before I started watching it.

So far, I think it's, has been a letdown in terms of where he was drafted and what he has been. And you go back and you watch him last year and the whole point of sliding him from the right side to the left side was to put him back at his natural position that he had played before, got to increase that comfort level. There are elements to his game that are still enticing and that you can still talk yourself into it. He's still strong.

He's still long. He plays an actually decent awareness and past protection for a guy that's that young and was playing next to a new center for half of a. of his second season. My issue with him is that he just, it seems like he's not playing with a lot, like an assertiveness in any area of his game. There's a lack of balance.

He's over his feet way too often. He's on the ground a lot in the run game. And so where I land on this is that I think that the infrastructure and the ecosystem for the offensive line for the chargers for the last two years and the run game was about as bad as it could be, you know, just based on conversations

and based on the final results. I am withholding final judgment on what sort of player Zion Johnson is until I see him with this staff, with this version of an offense, and with a little bit more consistency around him in every single facet. I think that's spot on. One, because, I mean, this staff is going to figure out

the run game one way or another, whether he's a part of it or not. But the other thing is, like, Zion is still a young player. Like, this is only what, we're going into year three for him. Like I, and we're only going into year three and he hasn't been a bad starter. Like he's been a decent. You can put him out there. There are a lot worse guards out there in the NFL.

And so for him to still be there and we're moving into a staff that should theoretically get more out of him. I think they're in an okay spot even if this isn't, you know, we shouldn't feel comfortable projecting Zion Johnson. In two years, he's going to be a pro bowl or that type of thing. If they can just get him to like moderately above average, I think that will be a good spot. But I generally agree. Like, he is more talented than the production that you get out of him, which is very frustrating because it just seems like things happen a little bit too fast for him, especially in the run game.

Like, he is long. He is very strong. He's not a bad athlete, but it just seems like he doesn't take the right angles as often as he should. He can't get his hands where they need to be. Like, it just seems like he's not always sure when he should come off of a double team. Like, it just seems like the details for him. are not all the way there, which is never moving all together.

It's never, he never puts it all together. And that's what's frustrating about watching him as you see some of these reps. There are a couple of moments in the Ravens game I watched today where he's getting no help with Justin Matabike, and he can move him off the line of scrimmage. And it's like, okay, like when everything is moving in the same direction, like there's a lot to like here, but it just feels disjointed. And that to me, again, it feels like a confidence thing. It's just a lack of assortiveness in the way that he's playing.

And that's why I do think that there's a version of him that is a lot better than the guy we saw last year. And part of the reason I'm comfortable saying this is that this has been true for everybody along that offensive line. Ray Sean Slater has not been as good as he was in year one when Frank Smith was there and when I think we were all a little bit more comfortable with the overall infrastructure of that line and the Chargers run game. It has been bad the last two years. So this staff, if anything, should be able to fine-tune some of that stuff. And that's why I think that there is a better version of Zion Johnson waiting for us in 2024 than the one that we have seen so far. Yeah, I 100% agree with that. And I think part of the infrastructure thing is like, just look at the players who were next to him.

Last year, I mean, Corey's Lindley for part of it until he had to leave. But the center situation was not great and they were not people movers. At right tackle, it was a lot of Trey Pipkins, also not very good. Now they're getting Joe Alt and they brought him Bradley Bowman from Carolina, who is not fantastic. but he's perfectly fine. I think just having two players next to him who know what they're doing and can actually help move people,

I think that should also help maybe even build the confidence with him because maybe part of it was like he just didn't feel like he had the right help next to him and that was part of why his confidence was consistently leaking. I'm hoping getting him next to two better players

should kind of help go a long way for him. Yeah, it's interesting because right now it seems like Trey Pippekins can play guard for this team while Joe all plays right tackle. I don't really understand that because Trey Pipkins to me is not oftentimes we see that transition when it's like oh this guy struggles in space space is a past protected but he's powerful you know we feel like they'll be able to operate in a phone booth and when things move a little bit quicker.

Trey Pipkins's issue is not moving in space as a past protector is that he struggles to move people in the run game so I don't really understand how that translates to playing guard and maybe it's just an OTA's thing maybe they're trying it out but I don't like that at first glance. But especially for this team, for a Harbaugh, Greg Roman, like we want to run you over type of offense? And we're going to put him in a guy.

It doesn't, they have Jamari Sawyer's body type. Like, it just doesn't really make sense. You have a guard who weighs like 360 pounds or whatever Sawyer weighs. I actually don't know how much Jamari Sawyer weighs, but the way that he's built leads me to believe that he weighs like 380.

Like that just, he's a very stocky man. let's get to our last one here. We only have one for the Kansas City Chiefs because I don't have any lingering questions about the Chief's offense. I really don't. Like, what would your question be?

The things that I think are questions about this team is, how will Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy fit in? What will they do without Rishi Rice? But I don't have any lingering questions from the end of last season. And that's why an exercise like this is less applicable to the Chiefs

than it is with some other teams. We paid attention to them at every single point of the year, we fervently documented every vacillation up and down and what their offense was. So we only have one, and it's yours. What is your lingering question

from 2023 about the Chiefs? My question is, so the Chief's defense was really, really good last year, right? And part of that was because they had a very good cornerback in legarius need. I think by whether statistically or I test,

top 10 cornerback in the league, probably higher if you were to just rank everybody out. But is the cornerback room fine now that he's gone? I'm going to leave Trent McDuffie out of this. He's obviously incredible. He is obviously really, really good. He was so good for a rookie.

He can play outside. He can play inside. He can play the run. He'll hit. He'll fight. Dude is, I think, unequivocally, one of the best young quarterbacks in the league already. So he is not who I'm talking about here.

Who I'm talking about is Joshua Williams, Jalen Watson, and kind of Charmari Connor, who was kind of a safety, kind of their nickel at times last year. But those are really the guys that I'm talking about here. Body type-wise, I actually think nothing is going to change. Because Legerius Sneed is like six was like, he's around 6-2, very long, very strong. Jalen Watson and Joshua Williams also are like 6-1 in change, very long, very strong. Like it's, it's, structurally.

Right. Yeah, this is what Spags wants. This is how the defense is built. Structurally, nothing's going to change. I'm just kind of concerned about the efficacy of what these players bring. Statistically, if you look at these. guys last year, they were actually pretty productive. Joshua Williams, if you, on SIS, if you do players with at least 15 targets last

year who got targeted 15 times, Joshua Williams was 10th in yards per coverage nap. Like, he was actually really, really effective. He only played 230 coverage snaps, though. It's the problem. And Jalen Watson didn't play a whole lot more because those two traded a lot of time. And then when they were in base, like Trey McDuffie was playing outside so they didn't even need these guys on the field a lot. So these two just didn't play a lot.

The other thing is that when they did play, these guys were press merchants. And this is just what Spags does. This is just how the defense runs. But these were not guys who were sitting in soft zones and reading the quarterback's eyes. These were not guys who were playing a lot of, this is just, they were kind of just getting hands on guys

and they weren't really playing with space. And they were kind of hoping that whatever Spags could bring in terms of the pressure was going to get home and they could just buy a second and a half to disrupt the quarterback. and that's kind of just how this defense functions. But they're pretty limited when you look at literally any other thing that they were doing. And so that gives me some concern in terms of the flexibility of this defense because I do think Sneed was able to do a lot more.

At the same time, there is part of me that goes, you know what? Spag's having two guys who can just beat the hell out of people on the outside is probably enough for what he's going to do pressure-wise, that this can, it will be worse, but it will probably still be, perfectly fine. My question is how often is McDuffie going to be inside versus outside in a post-legious Sneed world? Because if you look at the way that they were deploying those guys, I mean, obviously they play like so much dime. It's ridiculous. I mean, that's always who they're going to be. But when they were in nickel last year, especially in the second half of the season, it's a decent amount of

three safety stuff where they would have Connor in the game. And so my question is, is the best version of this defense when they have five DBS on the field this year? Is it McDuffie outside, one of those guys and then being in a three safety look where Connor becomes the nickel. Because it does feel like that might be your best five players just moving forward with Sneed out of the equation. I think it truly depends on how much they really, really want to lean into the press stuff. Because I think if they're more willing to be, you know, get off of press, play a little bit more off coverage, all that sort of stuff.

I think you can play McDuffie more on the outside. And I think you're perfectly fine with that. I think that gives you a little bit more flexibility there. If they just say, you know what, all that we have are guys who can hit and put hands on people, and we're just going to let McDuffie play inside and we're just going to let the corners outside press people, I think that's where you're going to get McDuffie almost exclusively taking over in the slot and then letting the other guys play outside. I do think, I do think, though, I don't know, it's so tough. I just have a hard time imagining a scenario where Spags is comfortable with Joshua Williams.

and Jalen Watson consistently being on the field. Like when they go to nickel, like these are their two outside corners. I just have a hard time believing that that's what they're going to want to do. I think it's more likely that they kind of keep switching it up the way that they did last year because I think part of the value in having, you know, sometimes Connor is playing in the slot. Sometimes it's McDuffie.

Sometimes Jalen Watson's outside who's a little bit better of an athlete than Joshua Williams. Sometimes Joshua Williams is on the outside who's a little bit bigger and stronger than Jalen Watson. I think part of like it was almost the sum was, or the parts were able to be more than they were supposed to be, what is it greater than the sum of their parts, because of the flexibility and Spag's ability to deploy that,

I think if they got more static, that would just be bad. So I kind of just expect them to still be pretty fluid in terms of who is playing where. Yeah, it's interesting. It's the moving target in terms of what they are as a defense, all the changing personnel, that's a huge benefit until you have to do what you wanted to do in the Super Bowl,

and that's just we're going to play man and beat the shit out of you the entire of the game. And even if you can live in a press world with these guys, I don't know if you can live in a press man world with these guys the way that they did in the Super Bowl. So I think that probably is the thing you lose, no matter who you trot out there, is that even if you have more flexibility in terms of personnel, you don't have that gear that you could go to in the biggest moment of last season. And they don't go to it very often. So I think that's why they'll be able to survive because that was one of the coolest parts of watching them play that way in the Super Bowl.

It was against type and it was not what you would have expected. So I think the version of the Chiefs offense we saw for 21 of their 22 games last year, if that's how they have to live, they're probably going to be okay. All right. That is all we've got. We only had one for the Chiefs like we explained. So that is all we got for the AFC West. We will be back on Tuesday.

Fun show for you guys on Tuesday. I don't want to, it's not even spoiling it. If something goes wrong, I don't want to. and not run the way that it was supposed to. But really looking forward to the show we have coming your guys' way on Tuesday. We are going to have the next version of our lingering question series coming out next Thursday. We're going to do the NFC West. So very much looking forward to that.

But we'll be back on our normal three-day-a-week schedule. For now, that is all we've got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.