The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Lingering Questions about the NFC South

Episode Date: June 27, 2024

For the final episode of this series, Seth Galina of Pro Football Focus joins Robert Mays to take a long, hard look at the NFC South and what the 2023 season did and didn’t tell us about the division. Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Really exciting show for you guys today. We have our last installment of our lingering questions series that we've spent the last couple of months working on. If you haven't listened to any of the other shows, if you're a fan of an NFC's solid team,

what we've done is we've taken every team in the NFL and with a guest, we've done one lingering question each about what we didn't have answered by the end of the 20-23 season. You know, it's hard to keep track of all of these teams over 17 games, especially ones that have fallen out of the playoff race

that aren't relevant after Thanksgiving. So I wanted to take some time this off season to revisit some questions we had about all of those teams. And today we're doing the NFC South with my buddy, Seth Galena from PFF. The NFC South is ripe for this sort of exercise. There are elements of the Falcons offense and why they struggled last year

that are worth digging into. What happened with Bryce Young and what does that mean is one of the biggest lingering questions that any of us could have asked. after the 2023 season. So we dug into all of that and more, plus a pretty good existential Saints conversation

with Seth, who is a Saints fan, about the state of that organization, where it's going. Very glad that we got to dig into all of that, but excited for you guys to hear a pretty fantastic chat that I had with Seth Galena, so let's get to it.

Joining us now to round out our lingering question series from Pro Football Focus. It's our old friend Seth, how you doing, man? I'm okay. I know you're supposed to come on these podcasts and be like, yo, I'm great, feeling great, looking great. Not here.

Now, you're more than welcome to say that you're not doing great here. No, I'm good. I broke my finger last week, and I just got a cast this morning. So I'm like, it doesn't hurt or anything. I'm just annoyed to have to have this unwieldy thing on my hand for two weeks or whatever. You have to tell people how you broke your finger because it's going to give you more credibility as we go about this show. I broke my finger being an athlete. Okay, playing in an adult flag football league.

That's right. So you just make sure that everything Seth says, it's couched in his football experience playing flag football. And I admit it was, I had a chance to make a really good play, and I didn't. And then it broke. So that's where we are. I've gotten to a point now in my physical fitness journey

where I do something pretty much every single day, but I haven't played sports in a good long, while. I can't remember the last time I was at a full-out run, like a sprint. And if I did it now, I think something would just explode. Like something would just fall off me. My hamstring would just burst into flames. I'm truly afraid to do it now. That's how long it's been. I would be afraid. You got to go slow. You got to start in like the lower divisions, work your way up. Or just play quarterback, pocket passer. I could do that. I absolutely could do that. I can still throw a football, but that's about all. I have to be stationary. I would be the Jared Gawkins. I would be the Jared Gawks.

off of an adult flag football league. That's about where we'd be at the stage of my athletic career. We roped you into doing the NFC South. You're the right person for this. You have the right disposition for this. You are or were a New Orleans Saints fan. I'm not sure what you're allowed to say anymore.

So you are the right guy to pull into doing a division that I don't think is the sexiest division in the league. I don't think there are a lot of people beaten down my door to do the NFC South, but that's why I asked you to do it. Yeah, well, I heard when you had Stephen Ruizan for his episode. He was like so, because he's

the biggest Panthers fan out there. So for you, he was so excited that you didn't give him the NFC South. And I take offense to that. Like, you know, I'm just saying, like I come in here kind of under boycott premises.

I will say, the Panthers are at least interesting to talk about. The answers you get to at the end of the discussion, may not be particularly fun if you're a Panthers fan, but the journey is worthwhile. They had the number one overall pick last year. There's a lot to dig into.

The team that you have followed for your entire life, that's not exactly the set of circumstances we're dealing with. I can get, I think as we talk about these teams, I can get hopeful slash excited about three of them. And then one of them, well, I guess we'll leave it to when we get there. Well, let's start off with this because I want to talk about your lingering question about the New Orleans Saints. I don't have one. And I don't have one for a specific reason.

Earlier this offseason, Saints fans told me, several of them on the internet, that they would prefer I just ignore their team rather than talk about it in a lazy way. I am happy to oblige them. I'm just fine ignoring the Saints here for a little while. So I left the Saints question to you. and the fact that you landed on what you did independently from you knowing that that's how I was going to approach this is the best possible answer. So what is your lingering question

about the 2023 New Orleans Saints? My question is, has apathy set in for this fan base, this franchise, that's kind of where we are now? Now, I will say, like, as a Saints fan, like not living in New Orleans, maybe that helps kind of, of these feelings of apathy. Like I think if you're in a city, you can get swept up.

I know living in a city with a professional sports team, you can get swept up and stuff. But for me, it's been, you know, you felt excited. You know, last year, okay, new quarterback, whatever. But by this point, it's, I don't have, I don't think they're going to win the Super Bowl. I don't think there's any chance they win the Super Bowl I think for two years we said okay well you know what this division is not very good and so they should be in it

to win the division both years and guess what didn't happen so it's like well then now I'm like okay I'm done like I'm I think I'm done there's pieces that I like but at the same time as a whole I just don't think there's much to be hopeful about, to be honest.

And I think that's where a lot of Saints fans sit right now. So my question for you is, as you look back at how the last season ended and what they looked like near the end of the year, because they were much more watchable in the second half of the season, especially on offense, than they were in the first half of the year. They were pushing the ball down the field a little bit more. It was at least a tolerable product. So as you look at the way the last month of last season went, as you try to project that forward, What elements of who the Saints were at the end of the 2023 season

would maybe push you beyond apathy and kind of restart your heart a little bit? Okay, so I will say, like, you're right. It did look better. They were pushing the ball down the field. Like, these things would they have to do because the receiving core is too good to not push the ball down field. It's too fast to not push the ball down the field. I think a lot of the apathy comes from literally who the quarterback is.

Like, that's really the biggest issue I have. Because, like, you know, the defense has played well for, you know, it feels like, what, six straight years, you know, since 2017, basically. They've been elite. It's just the, like I said, the receiving core is really good. Al McAmerer is my favorite player of all time. Like, I like a lot of these people. It's just the quarterback, like when you talk about,

the three quarterbacks, other quarterbacks in the division. Did Bryce aren't play well last year? No, but there's hope for him. Is Baker Mayfield up and down? No, but there's hope for him because we just saw a good season out of him. Kirk Cousins, I mean, and Kirk Cousins is a good kind of point to jump off from when we talk about Derek Carr. Because I think there's similarities there as they went through their journey in this league. However, when I look at the difference in how Kirk Cousins has evolved in the pocket and is willing to take hits and to get the ball off. And, like, you know, you saw it in the quarterback documentary where he's getting hit and he's making these insane screams every time he gets hit. Derrick Carr has not gotten there yet.

and you've talked about this on your podcast for however many years now. What it means to play quarterback at an elite level in the National Football League is being able to either escape sacks with leg talent, whatever that means, or escape sacks with toughness and being able to sit there and take a shot. Because you're not going to be right about protection. your players are going to lose one-on-ones, your receivers aren't going to win when you need them to win all the time. And that's where Kirk Cousins has taken the step the last three, four years,

maybe three years, I would say, to becoming this guy who's, in my opinion, the top ten quarterback. And Derek Carr hasn't. So maybe you get this last month of the season where he plays at that level and he's doing stuff like that. But I don't know over the course of 16 games, sorry, 17 games, if that's if that's the quarterback that can lead you to the promise line i mean i mean given the given the history it's not the quarterback that can lead you to the promise line it's barely the

quarterback to take it to the playoff so that's where i'm like okay yeah it was good and and again because there's such good pieces especially in the receiving core like i said you can go on these runs i just don't think over the course of a season this is a type of quarterback play style that works in the NFL right now. I love so much of what you just said because I think there's so much there. The willingness to stand in the pocket and toughness being a factor

in modern quarterback success if you're not mobile, I don't think I've ever articulated it that way, but it's a fantastic point. Because if you're trying to bucket the guys who don't create and aren't play extenders or scramblers or just guys who even move in the pocket very much, who are the guys that can still be the captain

of an elite offense and fit that category. I think Kirk Cousins is one of those guys, and I think Jared Gough is one of those guys. And if you're trying to find the through line between them, they can throw the shit out of the ball, first of all, and second of all, they're tough as hell. They are at this stage of their career is willing to stand in and take hits. And what that does is, we always talk about this, how are you going to make a play that's not really available to you within the normal structure or timing of a play? And if you're willing to sit there for an extra half beat and get your head ripped off and rip the ball over the middle of the field, that's a version of it. It's not a

the safest version, the best version, but it is a version of it. And I do think those guys fit it in a way that Derek Carr does not. And I think that's a great, great point. And the other thing is, in order to be a guy that is one of these, the way that I've described before is when we're talking about Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, a member of their staff said he's a red quarterback with blue moments. And if you have one of those guys, you can get hot in the playoffs and you can end up getting there with the right things around him. But part of being, part of those blue moments is that that willingness to make those throws, the ability to make those throws. If you're not going to be that guy that stands in the pocket, you're almost cutting off

the chance that you can get hot for four games. And so that's why I think that Derek Carr, it's harder to talk yourself into that version of him. But now that rationalization and talking yourself into that, it's almost inconsequential because the rest of the roster is no longer good enough for that hot streak to even matter. And it feels like that's kind of where we've arrived with this team. Well, you know, I said the receive, I've said like four times already how good the receiving court is. I'm trying to avoid talking about the offensive line.

That's the problem, right? The receivers are exciting. What's going on up front is not. And, you know, they made the mistake with penning. Like, I think it was like, like, this is always the thing when it comes to the draft and like process versus player evaluation and kind of finding that balance. obviously they needed to take a tackle. For me, on the player evaluation side, when I watched him, I think that was not the right tackle to take.

Who am I to say? Like, I'm not, you know what I mean? Like, I'm just a random guy. He's working PFF, whatever. But now you're stuck in a situation where this thing has come unraveled at warp speed. Ryan Ramshick, I don't know if we'll ever see him play football again, right? Like, I don't know where he is now. Like, I haven't heard anything.

I'm not an insider. I don't know this stuff. But like the worst case scenario is getting a lot closer to being the scenario, which is that he's not going to play at least in 2024, which is crazy. That means, you know, Fuego is going to have to be, and the guy that's picking the first round is going to have to be a player right now. Which, you know, it's possible. He's a first round pick.

But he has to be a player right now. Caesar Ruiz has, I thought there was a breakout, I think it was year three. I thought there was some good play. And that's kind of, the 2024 was just not very good. A 2023 was not very good. So, you know, you're looking at a left guard spot that's kind of open. Nick Salieri, maybe the guy.

McCoy is good at the center. And then I guess you have to go with, you know, probably won't be penning, but maybe he's penning at right talk. But, like, I don't know. It's just not other than McCoy if Ramchick isn't there. it's not just a, it's not just like a below average offensive line is potentially just a bad offensive line. And then again, it just plays into this whole, this whole situations. You know, I spent a lot of time in this last season talking about Gino Smith and his play style because it's another guy who is a tough guy, stands in the pocket, is a tough guy, and wins in that way with the toughness and stuff like that.

But even he had his issues when those tackles weren't playing, you know, basically. Basically, when he had good tackle play, it looked really, really good. When he had less so tackle play, he had to make a lot more play to self, and it wasn't as good. And then I, so then Derkar being in kind of the same boat, it's like, okay, well, these guys need at least something capable in the offensive line, this play style. And Derrick's not going to get it this year. You didn't get it last year either, and he's not going to get it this year. It's a weird team to talk about just because typically somebody like this, where it's okay, we're kind of on the door. step of the playoffs last year. Offense was

underwhelming. You hire a new offensive coordinator and you go through all the typical steps where you say, all right, what can Clint Kubiak give this group that maybe they didn't have last year? Can they take kind of a step up from there, regain their form on defense, even though they're getting a little bit older, we think Dennis Allen

is good at this, is there a path forward in the NFC South? I almost feel like it's not worth going through those motions with this team because that's not where they are and I don't think that's where the fan base considers them. I don't think fan base is talking themselves into that right now. I think they're in a place kind of like you are where it's like, all right, we're kind of clearing the decks here for the first time.

We're not going to move Camara's money around. We know that we're really trying to get out from under this boulder really for the first time in the last few years and we're not trying to squeeze everything we can out of this roster. So even everyone around this team that cares about this team is looking forward to 2025 and 2026. So all of that, all right, well, how can they get the most out of this team and this roster will bring in a new OC. It almost just feels like a waste of time with this group specifically because I don't even think that's the terms that you should be meeting this group on right now. I say I agree, but then the issue is like, why do this?

And why do the Derek Car thing in the first place? Because at that point, when you did it originally, you could talk yourself into that formula we're talking about where the rest of the roster is good enough that if he can get hot for the right stretch of time, maybe we can. can do this. And I understand that rationalization in the moment when they did it, but it feels like that time has come and gone. And now we're in a completely different set

of circumstances, and the way that you have to talk about this team and its expectations has vastly changed even in the last 18 months. Yeah, that's the case. I agree with that. And I feel bad for the defense, because the defense has played

at a very high level. Even with some changes, like the, you know, guys getting older, not producing as much, Cam Jordan being one of them, you know, a Saints Hall of Famer for sure, but just not the same player he was. And yet they're still able to produce, you know, not really having any pass rush last year and still having

an elite past defense or a pretty good past defense. Like, this was, and so I, this is something that I, that I've been wanting to get off my chest a bit about Dennis Allen, because I know a lot of Saints fans are not fans of Dennis Island. Fine, whatever. No one's a fan of their

head coach when they don't win games, right? That's pretty much what happens. But I look at this and I go like, man, this is the guy who gave the Saints, who I guess helped reopen the Saints' late career Drew Brie's window, right? When the defense turned it around in 17 and then and then we're flying for like 18, 19, 20. So clearly a good defensive coordinator, clearly a good coach. His record as a head coach is not good, but he's tied himself to not a great. quarterback pretty much off those years, the same one. Now, is it his fault that he went and tied himself

again to the same quarterback who let him down when he was the Raiders head coach? Yeah, that's fair. But I look at it like, man, this guy is clearly a really good coach, undone by really bad quarterback play that he, well, I wouldn't say really bad. Obviously, Derrick's been, yeah, underwhelming, right? That's the Derrick Carr story. It's like, underwhelming. So that's where I'm like, I understand again, you don't win enough games. You want your coach fired that kind of comes with the territory. But at the same time, I'm like, man, this is the guy who's done a lot for this Saints team, for this franchise. And for what he does, which is not touch the offense, he is an elite, elite defensive coach.

And I think he deserves, he probably deserves a chance somewhere. It probably won't happen again, but he probably deserves a chance somewhere. where he has a least manageable quarterback play to pair with what's been a really good defense all these years. So in your mind, what is the ideal way for this to play out? Let's say over the next two years, because there are still enough bills to be paid in 2025 that a full-on reset over the next year really can't happen.

But there is a chance that it can happen over the next two years, where you move on from pretty much everybody on the aging side of the roster, and in 2026, you're set up for pretty much a blank slate. of a team financially, depth chart, everything. In your opinion, is that the right path forward?

Yeah, it's like the, like the accidental tank, which is like, hey, we're in this situation, we're paying a quarterback a lot of money. Like you said,

we're playing a lot of people, a lot of money. But you get into a situation where it just, the wheels fall off. And you finish with four wins, three wins, two wins,

whatever it is. Like, I don't think that's possible because I think they're good enough in enough areas. But that would be the ideal scenario where it's like, all right, it just, we tried it. It didn't work. And it didn't work in a very bad way. But here's a top five pick.

And then the next year, it's like, okay, well, here's another top five pick or something like that. And I, like, does it suck to go into a season knowing your favorite football team? The team you want to watch every Sunday is not going to be good? Like, yeah, it does. My one comparison is my favorite. favorite hockey team is doing a real tank right now where you know that were the city that I live in and it's like I'm okay with it I'm like I'm I have hope like they have not won a lot of games they

picked in the top five three straight years they have not won a lot of games but I'm like oh my god this guy is young and good this guy's young and good this guy's young and good so I'm hopeful I mean the Montreal can't turn out and be you know for the next 20 years be it be a bottom dweller like I don't know, but I have hope at least. I have no hope for the Saints to be a Super Bowl contender with this roster right now, the agingness of the roster. So I'm just like, I'm okay with it. So I have to go and watch a different team Sunday at 1 p.m.

Like, it's okay. I'll get through this. But I think that's the best case is the accidental tank where it's like, yeah, we're looking at a team that's like maybe an eight-win team, maybe a nine-win team, and accidentally we hit only three wins. That would be great. Now, look, if they're good, if they're actually good, I would love that too. If they win 12 games, that's great.

I don't think that's going to happen. That seems like more of a remote possibility than the other path. I don't even know if you have to go accidental tank route. But for me, the way I see it here, you play out this season, you win, let's call it six or seven games. I think that's probably a realistic place to put them. You're going to next year. Now you can start to tear it down a little bit.

You move on from Camara, you move on from some of the aging guys. You have to do the cap gymnastics that you always do, but you don't push money into future years. You just do what's necessary in order to make it functional. And then you could move on from Carr next summer. Is that, do you cut him? If you cut him, it's $50 million in dead money, but he's making $50 million. So you save $30 million in cash if he end up doing that. If you do it post-June 1, then obviously you can split it up.

You could trade him potentially. That's $40 million in dead money pre-June 1. Another team for $30 million bucks may think Derek Carr is their business. best answer if they're in short of a short-term window. Either way. Wherever Dennis Allen is coaching next year or two years. There is absolutely a possibility that $30 million of Derek Carr in 2025 is a reasonable answer for a team out there based on their current timeline and availability as a quarterback. I can understand arriving there. So you move on from a couple of those guys. You're clearing the decks a little bit. You tried out

Spencer Rattler and just say, listen, it doesn't matter this year. We'll see what we have in you. and you do what a lot of other teams have done in that moment where it's a quiet tank where you can talk yourself, talk the fan base into, and we're just getting information and we're seeing what we have here. Then in 2025, that's when you could win three, four, five games and potentially set yourself up with the top three pick in 2026. I think that is a totally reasonable and probably healthy path forward for this team when you consider how they went about this over the last three or four years. Yeah, I think this year Four wins is too low

It's way below the floor The defense is too good The defense is too much talent And I think that there are still too many good players On the roster Yeah, Carr is not the worst quarterback That's ever lit Like let's be clear about this

He just doesn't give you that Super Bowl That like he doesn't Can flip the switch And bring you to a Super Bowl But yeah, the floor is probably six wins Which again, like I'm like legit okay with that They win six games I'm more than okay with it.

Now, you brought up something that may cure the apathy. And that's Spencer Rattler. So you want Spencer Rattler before week one, 2025, is what you're saying to me. I would love that. I would absolutely love. If there's one player that can cure apathy, it is definitely Spencer Rattler. Because he's going to make boneheaded decisions for sure, but he is also going to be wild. Right?

Like, he's going to make plays. He's a playmaker, right? Like, in the way that Derek Carr is, and he's a playmaker. And I really liked him, to be honest, like, even watching the South Carolina tape. So, like, I'm on board. I was really happy the Saints picked him. Not saying this is a guarantee or anything like that. But again, if you want to cure apathy to have hope than a young quarterback,

and especially this type of young quarterback, I think is the way to go. That plus 100. million dollars in cap space in 2026 and a top five pick, there are worse collections of resources and assets to talk yourself into if you're a fan of a team that's been hanging around the middle here for a little bit too long. Let's move on to the other teams here and get a little bit more into the spirit of this exercise. Let's start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the defending champions of that NFC South. What was your lingering question from 2023 about the Bucks? For the bucks, it's so lingering because they didn't do a ton in free agency, so there are still some lingering, some lingering questions.

And I think my lingering thing is just like, can they rely another year on the aging veterans to be elite players again? Mike Evans and Levante, David, especially. Vita Vea, he's not the oldest player. I think he's still in his 20s. I think he was playing his age 29 season this year. So, but still, like, this guy's been in the league for a while. Those three carried them, right?

Especially Evans on offense. Like, the rest of this roster is not very good, right? Like, they have two young players that are cornerstone-type pieces. That's Worfson Winfield. Luke Geddicke played well as a rookie or a second-year player, I don't remember. So other than that, I mean, this is a roster that was carried by, by some veterans. Can you do it again?

Like, can you just be an elite player in your, in your 30s, at receiver, at inside linebacker? I love that you did this because my question is the other side of this coin, because I was also so interested in the moves they made this offseason, or just the way they approached this off season, and how that was framed by most of the NFL media, like the idea that everyone was celebrating what the bucks did just because they brought back the 2023 bucks.

So I was like, I understand that, right? They won the division and it's one of those, what else were they supposed to do type things? The Evans deal is at a discount. The Baker contract is fine. I get how they arrived here. But if you're going to be better than you were last year, you need pathways to be better.

And I think your question of whether the veterans can still be who they were, my question was, what can we expect from the younger pieces? The yeah, yeah, Diabis, the Colizia Cancies, the Cody Mawks. So we're really asking the same question, but coming at it from two different directions, which is why I loved this. So where did you land here? As you looked at the Mike Evans' is

and the Levanti Davids and the Vidaevas, how good do you feel about their ability to sustain the way that they played last year? I think David... Well, look, they're such good players that you don't want to be like, well, he hit 30 years old, therefore he's going to be bad.

But the track records aren't, especially a receiver. You know, when you're... look at guys who are playing in their double digit years, 10th, 11th, 12th year, like, there are not a lot of great examples of guys playing a lot of snaps in their, I think Evans going to his 11th year. There are not a lot of examples of this. I pulled this up, actually.

There just are not a lot of good examples. So since 2014, player experience, so like guys going into their 11th, you know, Guys, in their 11th, 12th, 13th, or 14th year, PFF receiving grade over 80, which is where, which is where you need your number one receiver to be. Five guys. Last year we have Keenan Allen. So hopeful for the Bears there. And even Keenan Allen was on a downturn before last season. There was, I was worried about what was going to happen with Keenan Allen because it felt like the arrow was pointed down and he bounced back in a big way last year.

So even that feels like an exception because of the change in trajectory for him. Yards per route run above 2.0. I think there's six guys in this same group. So like, again, is Mike Evans enough of a freak and a potential hallfamer that he can maybe not age at all? Like maybe, yes, because that's Mike Evans, right? Like, I don't want to say here, he's going to be terrible. Because honestly, I made this mistake with Chops Kelsey for a few years. years. Well, eventually it's going to fall off. And it kind of, you know, it wasn't great last year.

He was still good. So, like, I don't want to say that with elite players that it's automatically going to fall off. But in the way that this offense worked last year, which was a lot of contested catches on the outside, like, can you do that again? Can you just be like, yeah, this is who we are? We're just going to throw it down the field. And Mike Evans is going to make a play for us every single time and we're going to be one of the best checkdown teams in the NFL or we're going to take a checkdown an extra four yards every time because that's what they were last year. And for what feels like the millionth year in a row, we're not going to be able to run the ball.

Like, I just, that's not sustainable. And I will say one thing about this whole division when we talk about it. You know, we talked about the Saints defense last year. We were talking about the Bucks offense. Like the Saints defense, for example, did not play a murderer's role of quarterbacks. So I don't know, the stats were good, great. I don't know how good they are. The bucks in this division.

I don't know, like, first of all, this is a division winner that didn't win a lot of games. So I don't know how good they actually are when push comes to shove against, like, some good defenses on their schedule. I don't know what their schedule is off top of my head. But so that's the thing we talk about this division. When you play these teams, these four mid teams for your whole schedule, like I don't know where that, where it is. Now, obviously, they're going to play a first-place schedule, being that the champions. But that, so offensively, it's like, is any of this stuff sustainable? You put Godwin on the outside for the first time in his career, and again, came away with a ton of contested catches.

Evans, a ton of contested catches. Rashad White making plays in the passing game. Like, I don't know if a lot of this stuff doesn't seem sustainable, especially with the interior of the offensive line being bad. and that's kind of where I am with this offense. And then defensively, you know, David, again, elite player, playing at a position, especially in coverage where I think you get better with age, understanding route concepts, understanding,

where the quarterback's going with the football. I think that's the thing where we're realizing with linebackers how tough it is to play coverage as a linebacker because everything is happening behind your head. And that's like, something you've got it takes a lot of time to learn so

Devon de David probably still a good player Levitavia probably still a good player but those rookies you're talking about Cancy Diabby mock they weren't very good last year

like this is a team that played I believe the most snaps for rookies last season Trey Palmer those guys did not have good seasons now obviously they were picked high, they were picked in good spots. We have hope for them.

But it wasn't, they didn't come out of the gates like gangbusters. This was a, these were a work in progress for those four guys especially. Looking at the veterans, going back at watching a couple of games over the last couple of days, Mike Evans was incredible last year. Like, Mike Evans played such good football last year. And it wasn't just contested catch stuff. Like, that's obviously what we're going to go to with Evans and just the way he's built and the skill set that he brings. I thought that him as a separator last year is some of the best work he's

ever done in his career. And to do that at 30, that's wild. But it gets to what you're talking about. That's not all physical gifts. That's understanding how to set things up. That's understanding how your body's moving at that stage of your career. And I loved a lot of the stuff that he put on tape. And I'm actually interested in seeing him in this kind of ram-centric offense on some in-breakers over the middle of the field at this stage of his career. Like, I, would bet on him every single time rather than bet against him. And I understand that's dicey to do with somebody who's going to be 31 and has as much mileage on him as he does. The guy's played 154 career games. But based on the way he played last year, I'm not ready to say that the decline

is starting to come from Mike Evans. The Levante David thing, I kind of feel similarly. Obviously, he's not the same player he was five years ago, but still is reliable enough in the role they're asking him to play. The Vea thing is what worries me a little bit, because he was banged up consistently last year. And there were a couple games I watched in the back half of the season. He missed the game against Atlanta, and I watched the game against Carolina earlier this morning. And he just didn't look right.

He just doesn't look like he has the same level of explosion. He's just not the same presence or wasn't for stretches of last year that he had been when he's at his best. And those guys who were that big, it can happen fast. And I know that he's not even 30 yet. But of those three, even in 2024, he's actually the one that I would. be most worried about being able to regain an elite level or the type of play that we have seen from him over the last couple years when he's been at his best.

And that D-line, it's not the same D-line it was like two or three years ago. Logan Hall has not really panned out. Like I said, Kansy had a rough first season again, still hopeful. You know, on the edge, they're not the same. What makes you say that Kansy had a rough first year? Because going back and watching him, he's clearly, he's kind of what I thought he would be. he's undersized, he gets pushed around in the run game, he's diving into gaps trying to backdoor stuff,

and I think that there was a lack of soundness overall against the run for this team last year in a way that is kind of surprising, considering who they had been and the reputation they had as recently as two or three years ago. But I thought that the explosion and some of the pop as a pass rusher, as he gets a little bit stronger, to me, there is a pathway there

for him to be a pretty impactful player in the right role. In the right role. the question is is there like is there a such thing as a role for like a dpr interior player because like it might be rough like you said it might be rough for a while inside and that because i i agree you see the flashes the same stuff we saw at pit like there's flashes and he's obviously a really good quick player it's funny that with him and mock they're pretty much what i expected them to be like mock is so light in the pants like he just he's not there he was not there physically and you wonder why they couldn't run the ball. It's like, well, you just

are totally outmaned on the interior. Like, there's just, you had no shot. And the guy was a college left tackle at a small school and then you moved him inside and he just wasn't there yet physically. So you hope with a little bit more development from both of those guys that they can just hold up a little bit better than we saw them do last year, especially in the run game. I wanted to make a point, go back to a point you made about Evans on the end breaking routes. I think where the this team had some trouble was when teams would play with two high safeties and kind of, you know, play with less underneath defenders, underneath their zone defenders, and give them more spaces on the interior for those in-breaking routes, instead of just throwing these one-on-ones on the outside. Because, again, like I said, they moved Godwin to the outside, always been a slot receiver. He played more snaps than ever on the outside this past season.

and just using his skill there. So when you get these one-on-ones, when teams are going to play one-high and get those one-on-ones, and then they had a lot of success, and they had a lot less success when teams were playing the too high. And obviously, like,

without path to run game was, you would expect more teams to play that way in lighter boxes. So, yeah, like, if are we going to see this kind of new Baker-Mayfield be like, okay, here's this, like you said, Rams, Liam Cohen offense, whatever, can I hit these high lows over the middle of the field when they play too high?

Because I agree. Like, besides Evans just being an incredible contested catch guy going out, making plays one-on-one, he's just a really good receiver. Like, there's no other way to put it. He's just an elite receiver. He's an unbelievable player. Even with so much exposure to him over the last decade, I turned it on over the last 48 hours and just like, even I forget just how fucking good he is.

Like, he's just such a good player. There, no matter what it is, he ran like a little circus route against Carolina where he's working against J.C. Horn, and it's an inside release, and he comes back to the outside, and he makes a full outstretched arms catch while toe tapping 25 yards down the field. It's actually a really good throw by Baker. But I watched that happen. It's like a 30-year-old dude against a corner that is 25 and should be, like, based on his profile, one of the best physical in-your-face corners in the league. and he's doing that to him

and he just continues to do that shit this deep in his career. It's absolutely wild. And that's why I'm like, I say what I say about like receivers in this type of era of their career but it, I don't,

you don't want to say like, well, it's a guarantee he's going to fall off. Like it's guaranteed Tyree Kill at 33 or 32, whatever he is going to fall off. Travis Kelsey at 36 or whatever's going to fall off. Like, they're just too good. They're too smart.

You played in the league long enough just to know how to get open. at this point, even if you've lost a step. And then Evans still has the ability to go up and win one-on-ones to go along with, like you're saying, about the separation. The other thing that we kind of talked about was team is like, well, you know, Baker Mayfield, like, is he going to just be above average again this year? Because I don't think there's a guarantee that that happens again.

And you saw in the back half of the season that the sack rate started to come up again. Again, we know that's who he is really. So even though the beginning of the season, we didn't see it as much, we know who Baker Mayfield is at this point. And I tell you, like, something that really stuck out to me when I watched these guys and watch Baker specifically was they ran a lot of quick game. This is really, like, specific thing. They ran a lot of quick game.

He did a good job of, okay. my number one concept here to this left side or right side is not open and I get back my eyes to this like checkdown route over the ball and usually Rashad White who had a bunch of receptions and it's like can you just do that again can you just like again like I mentioned this with the checkdowns before it's like can you just like be a good checkdown team is that a thing to be a good checkdown team like Drew Breeze that that's like the only quarterback or Tom Brady like these top those are the only guys where I'm like okay this is this is a thing that's sustainable They're going to hit the checkdowns when they need to hit the checkdowns,

and the checkdowns will be thrown accurately, and the running back, whoever is, is going to be able to get some yards. I'd love to ask Gino or Baker this, and I probably should at some point. I want to know what sort of voice Dave Canellas was when it came to, all right, these are your outlets. If this isn't here, I need you to get here. Because if you look at, again, the through line between what happened with Gino and what happened with Baker over the last two years,

both of them were sack eaters. that was Gino's biggest problem for a huge chunk of his career. And then he stopped doing it in 2022. And then Baker, same kind of deal. Him turning into a pumpkin against pressure was such an issue for such a huge part of his career. And last year, he was so much better. And I wonder what sort of influence and what sort of messaging there was from Canales to both of those guys because that's the commonality between both of them. And then we haven't even said, you know, that's the first time we brought up Dave Canales.

losing your play caller and a guy who clearly is good. I mean, that is a little worrisome with all the stuff we've talked about. Not to say Liam Cohen isn't going to be good. We just don't know, right? He might be better. This might be the best officer coordinator we've ever seen. But we just don't know at this point. I wonder what it looks like.

I just wonder what the structure of the offense looks like because what I really, I think one of the reasons that Baker was so successful is they just spread things out for him and let him play point guard. I mean, this is a guy who, think about where he comes from, think about the world that he comes from in college. He goes to Cleveland. He's in this kind of under center play action world that, you know, he doesn't necessarily fit him. And there are moments where I actually thought it was good to put him in that box. And then seeing him in Tampa last year, I was like, ah, no, no, no, no.

Having him an empty and just letting him go to work and getting the ball out of his hands is absolutely the best way to use him. But now Liam Cohen comes from a place where there have been some stretches with the Rams or there's been a lot of under center play action. is they're kind of pivot away from it? Is that mostly Stafford-driven? So if you move him from the equation, what does this look like? So to me, that's a huge question. But I think if you take everything into account,

Cohen, the running game issues last year, this kind of combination of these elite players with these young players, I can talk myself into this. And here's how I'm going to do it. I think there is a chance that we get a version of Baker that was closer to the guy

got in 2023 than we'd had over the past couple seasons. I can believe that that page has been turned or that corner has been turned at least a little bit. The interior, if we do get a little bit more physicality from Malkaneer, too, if he put some weight on, play strength. These things happen in the first couple years of your career, especially considering his background. And especially at guard.

Exactly. You go from tackle to guard. Like, it's not, I don't think you have to tell yourself a story to envision him being better in that role this year. You drop Graham Barton in at center. That's way more physicality than you're typically going to get from that position. So I think that could be a huge improvement for them, even though it's sometimes hard to bet on rookies. So if your run game can go from being 30th to average or slightly below average, even if you're going to take slight down ticks and some of the luck-based passing stats.

And when I say that, they were like 17th at passing success rate. They were 11th in EPA per play because they were third down monsters. I mean, like, what they were getting away with late in series, that's probably not going to happen again. But if it can all even out and you end up somewhere around league average as an offense, I can envision that. And then on defense, again, same sort of uptick and physicality from a guy like Cancy. And I like Diabi as a piece of a defense. He wasn't a very good pass rusher last year just because he's not refined. But I thought he had some really nice moments against the run and he plays hard as shit.

And him and Cancy just in terms of attitude and mentality, I actually like those guys and like the overall offering you're giving as a defense, even if they have a little bit of a ways to go. So I do think that there is a world where this team is average or slightly above average on both sides of the ball, and that is firmly enough for them to compete in the NFC South.

In the NFC South 100%. And I think this whole like, with this team, this whole like sustainable versus not sustainable discussion fits so perfectly, Another thing I'll just throw out is the red zone. They were woeful in the red zone last year. Again, you got a little bit better there.

Heck, you're a little worse on third down, a little better in the red zone. It all comes out in the watch. Right. Then exactly. Then you're good. Like you said, if they come down with less contested catches, maybe they're better on in-breaking routes. Maybe they're better on separating. You know what I mean?

Maybe Tray Palmer takes a step and they get more of a vertical play from the slide. Like I, there's a lot of this weirdness to this team in terms of, of what they were good. Baker Mayfield in the second half of games was really good in close games. Maybe you won't be this year. Like maybe that's the other, you know what I mean?

Like that's kind of a really interesting part of this team where they, in a lot of ways, in a lot of interesting stats that are usually not sustainable, they were either really good or really bad. And it's like, if they can get to a point

where like they're in the middle of both of them, then maybe they win the division again. All right. Let's get to our next team here. Let's talk about the Carolina Panthers. What is your lingering question about the 2023 Carolina Panthers? I gave you the easy one here.

What does Bryce Young's year two jump look like? Now that they've upgraded at receiver, O line, play caller. It wasn't great last year, but, you know, but he was a number one overall pick, and we've seen quarterbacks take jumps. I'm curious in what areas, or I have an idea of what areas that needs to take a jump in. So I'm curious if that matches what we see on the field next year. Where do you think that needs to happen?

If you're envisioning the right blueprint for taking it from where he was last year to where he needs to be, what does that look like for you? I think one of the issues was the guy we thought Bryce Young was. And the guy they clearly thought Bryce Young was to be the number one overall pick is a guy who escapes pressure. is a smart guy and can throw anywhere over the field. None of those things were true last year. He took, you know, his pressure to sack numbers were woeful. It's my biggest concern.

The fourth highest rate in the league last year. The fourth highest rate in the NFL last season. And that's not who the guy was. He was just this little playmaker, Doug Flutie, making all these plays. And that is just not what happened at the NFL level. And obviously, the people who were more, concerned going into that draft said that he's he's not tall he's slight and this is could be a problem

and it was a problem if he doesn't fix that it like forget it like kind of at this point like forget about it right that because that is that needs to be fixed so that's the first step that's number one now i don't know how you fix that i like to be honest like there's no like there there's no like oh well we got a better guard, so it'll be better. Like, Robert Hunt will fix that. Like, that's, I don't think that. I don't know. I think that is the right

first step to potentially getting there. Because my issue with watching him last year is that when there was pressure, he folded. His eyes came down so fast and he didn't have a lot of feel for how to find

escape routes within the pocket. And that was one of the selling points for why you could get excited about him coming into the league. His numbers, when pressured, last year were abysmal. He completed 39% of his passes. The EPA is horrendous.

And like you said, the pressure to sack rate was really, really high. I think making him feel even a smidge more comfortable in the pocket and worrying about the integrity of the pocket is it's a first step you have to take. And so them spending what they did on guards, it makes total sense when you consider what he needs to be and where he needs to go. But the other part of this is we just talked about this. pressure to sacrate, guys who were taken too many of them, that don't necessarily have a feel for when that space starts breaking down,

two guys over the last two years who used to have that problem and then got significantly better, their play caller was Dave Canales. And that's exactly who is coming to Carolina. And I think that it's easy to talk yourself into or when you put it in those terms. All right, what's like the secret bullshit sauce that gets you there? I do think that even beyond the pressure to sack stuff, the most encouraging thing to me about the Bryce Young Dave Canales partnership is that I think there are a lot of similarities with Baker Mayfield. The best thing that Bryce Young does is when you put him in the gun and you let him play point guard.

And that's exactly what Canales learned about Baker and he consistently put him in those spots. Baker had 115 empty dropbacks last year. Bryce Young had 65. If the Panthers aren't in the top five in the amount of empty that they use this year in giving that guy options and letting the ball come out of his hands quickly, they're doing something wrong. But this isn't, you don't need imagination. And again, you don't need to tell yourself a story to convince yourself that this is the right guy to create that sort of plan for Bryce Young because we just saw him do it with Baker Mayfield. So I actually do have faith in what the structure of it will look like. Well, so this was a very, I don't know how to put this diplomatically.

It wasn't a very useful offense for Bryce Young. Like, usefully designed, right? Just not, like, just the most diplomatic I'd say is not usefully designed. And I think just in general, I mean, this is just a macro point, but like we just have a very bad time trying to isolate quarterbacks from their surrounding talent. Like we're this is all we talk about in the off season, right? Like when the draft season, like we just can't, we're very bad at it. Not just me and you as like media people. It's hard to do.

But like GM's coaches, like we just are really, really bad at it. So this was abysmal last year. The amount of plays they had that were designed for Adam Thielen, which too much for 2023, especially on third down, way too much. It's all they had, man. It's like knocked up. It's like he keeps going to the dice. It's all he's got.

All they had was Adam Thielen last year. This was, like you said, not a lot of empty. Like the RPO game was very basic. And we've seen, like, I've been a proponent of like the NFL kind of being like, hey, maybe we should run these RPO things, like downfield RPO's or at least first level RPO's like slants and stuff more than they than NFL teams do. And we've seen teams really take off with that. Miami, the Stuyken guys. Like these guys are like, these guys are really using it. And I don't know why that wasn't a plan last year, but whatever, regardless.

It's a great point to bring up, though. If the Panthers aren't looking at Gardner Minshu-Tate from last year as a means to help their quarterback, then they are making a mistake. Because I think that Stuyken, Minchew is even like a depressed version of what Bryce Young is from a skill set perspective. And they got above average, like 14th in the NFL dropback success rate season out of Gardner Minchew. year. Like, that is the right place to look if you are the Panthers coaching staff. You guys talked about it. You and Derek talked about it when you did the AFC South, but I am in total agreement

with both you guys talking about how good Stuyken is and how much they were able to squeeze out of Garden of Michigan, which should have been the same thing. And I don't want to bore you with last year's stuff, but like something that when I was researching this, they don't, like the run game was so not misdirectional. it's like, hey, we're going to go and gun, we're going to run an inside zone, and you're going to have to stop it, and team stopped it because it's 20,

it's a non-starter now, though. If that's the baseline of your run game, unless you're the Philadelphia Eagles while adding a guy to the numbers, you're fucked. Like, you just cannot have that be the basis of your run game in 2020. You can't.

The cheat code play, this is more overarching, not like a specific play, but the cheat code thing to do on offense is that slide action where the tight end, or it doesn't have to be tight end, but someone from the front side of the point,

the play at the snap is coming underneath the offensive line to the backside and you're reading the end and then if you if the quarterback keeps the ball you can toss it out there to the flat route that's like the cheat code play right now and they just didn't run all that and that's what the colts do it's what the dolphins do it's what the eagles did obviously was stiking a little bit with with brian johnson but like that's the cheat code play in in football right now is that slide or slice motion they just didn't run anyways but we're not there anymore right we have the But that's what that you can put Leggett on those. Like that's the whole point is to get is the having a combination.

And rookies are always a crapshoot, right? We never know. But Legate's skill set in theory, get him the ball in space, let him do work after the catch, even if you're down on him as an idea, that's what he's supposed to be. That plus Deonti Johnson, whose sole superpower in the NFL is getting open and creating separation, dropping those two skill sets, again, even if it's a theory into the, this offense is exactly the two types of influences you need based on who you were last year. That combined with bulk at guard.

I can get behind everything they did this offseason as a means to unlock the quarterback, everything. I'm on board with that. I think finding a receiver, like, and there's like, there could have been anyone that I would have been excited for whoever they got to play X, basically. But yeah, I agree with Leggett and Deonté Johnson is a really interesting player. I think most people think he's a good player, but he's played with such bad quarterbacks in his career so far,

that it's exciting to think about what he can do if Bryce Young takes that step. I'll add the next step for Bryce Young. The pressure to sack rate is number one with a bullet. One of the things that we've seen young quarterbacks going from year one to two or year two to three is the intermediate middle of the field. Can you access? that part of the field and we saw it. I mean, the most famous example almost is

Josh Allen year one to year two. Even though he didn't have a great year two and we still thought, I mean, I remember watching that tape of year two and I was laying on this guy and then it's never going to happen with Josh Allen. But one of the sticking points for a lot of people after that year two year was he was able to access

the middle of the field and throw the ball accurately ish to the middle of the field, the 10 to 19 yard range. We've seen it with a ton of quarterbacks Kyle and Murray had a blistering start to 2022 I believe where all of a sudden he could hit those

when he was like MVP candidate he could hit those plays I'm 21 I can't remember now he and Bryce Young obviously the same height like so you can do that like it doesn't matter how how tall you are you can you can

eventually find a way to access that he did not do it he was bad and he was bad in almost every statistical category but he was also bad in throwing this area of the field. So it's like, are you able to, okay, you've spent a year, now you have an off season, like you're going to year two. Like we've seen quarterbacks take that jump and become real players in this league.

And we've seen quarterbacks not take the jump and they stay there forever. And that's the huge question mark, man. That is a huge question mark because I don't think, you know, we just talked about it with Dave Canales and his time of a day bucks off. where so much of it was outside the numbers, you don't have Godwin and evidence. Again, Deja Jotts is a good player. I'm not trying to knock him.

But there has to be some plays where we read linebackers, we read safeties over the middle of the field to create openings because we're not a one-on-one receiving core. If Bryce can't access that, then I don't know. It's going to be tough going forward. It wasn't high volume to that area, but it wasn't like he was one of the guys who just doesn't even try. If you look at the numbers, he threw it at intermediate middle more. Like, they got comparing him to like Justin Fields or Russell Wilson.

It was considerably more than those guys do, which gives me at least a little bit of hope that he's willing to try it, which for someone with his physical profile, that was never going to be a guarantee. So I think there's at least a path forward there. I don't know what to make of him because there are some throws he made in a couple of. games outside the numbers downfield throws where the accuracy is exceptional, like really exceptional. And he's got enough arm to make them. The problem is the arm is still limited. And I just think what he gives you physically provides such little margin for error that it's hard for me to not feel pessimistic about it.

Because his pocket presence, if you're going to be built the way that he does, needs to be elite and you need to play on time all the time. Him disintegrating a little bit and getting uneasy when pressure starts to creep in and drifting and not having a plan for how he's going to move. That's not negotiable. You can't play like that if you're going to have his physical skill set. You can drift in the pocket if you're Jordan Love. That's fine. But if you're Bryce Young, you can't. And that's what worries me is that when he makes some of those outside the numbers throws. There were a couple against, I think it was Tampa. One was a drop outside the numbers on the right side. He had a whole shot that was right on time that was beautiful. He had a back

shoulder throw to a tight end whose name I don't know. There are moments where I can see what it's supposed to be. But when you get down to the nuts and bolts of it of what he looks like in the pocket, there's enough to keep me worried that even in better circumstances, I don't know if I can get all the way there where I can just say, if things around him get better, it's going to be fine. There's still enough that's endemic to who he is in the way he played last year that continues to make him worry. I think the drifting point, and you bringing up love, is interesting because Jordan Love can drift and, you know, do his, do his rotational throw where he's jumping in the air type thing,

because he has a, he has an arm. And like, these guys, like, when you start drifting, and you're Bryce Young and you and you you know because some his pressure response seems to be like drifting backwards or just like it's drifting backwards and then and then bailing

you know around the corner and that you cut off half the field you better have a strong arm you better have a strong arm and even guys with strong arms that's tough like Hertz is is like that he always bails to his throwing side

and he has massive struggles and he has a much stronger arm than Bryce Young, especially on the run. So if you're going to be a guy that drifts backwards, you better have a strong arm. He doesn't have that. So it's like you got now, okay, you have to be the guy who can find these, like you said, these pockets of space in, within the confines

where you still have the full field to work with. And you can fire the ball from kind of like, well, moving forward, at least being able to set your feet just in for that split second as you're moving forward. Whereas once you bubble around the course, corner and you don't have the arm, that's, that's worrisome. So I see a path forward for him. Like, to me, the best case scenario, and this shouldn't be, this isn't a noted, like an interesting insight.

But if you put him in a situation like Tua has now with the dolphins, where if you can just play on time and I guess Tua rip and in-breakers is a little bit different than what you're asking of Bryce Young, but that's sort of offense where it's just like, I just need you to play point guard. I just need the ball to come out of your hands in two seconds. I still think that the way that he's his release, just the way he physically is throwing the football, there is something there.

But if you give him any sort of crowding of the pocket, if you make things uncomfortable for him, it has looked really bad up to this point. And that's the thing I agree with you that needs to get better in a hurry. Just looking at something out now. So Kyla Murray's rookie season, 2019, 53.4 passing grade into the intermediate level,

10 to 19 yards. in 2020. So not the MVP year that we're talking to him, but in 2020, 75.5. Like, and Josh Allen is,

a huge improvement. Josh Allen is one of these guys who improved. Jared Goff is one of these guys who improved. I mean, like that 2016 Rams team, there was room for improvement

after that year. But it's a great, it's a great two guys to point out because similar to Bryce Young, their circumstances as rookies was horrendous. It was absolutely horrendous.

The playgoers for both of those guys specifically, golf in 16 and Josh Allen at 18, they lasted one year, and there were significant additions on both the offensive line and the receiving core for both of those guys. We have seen pads forward for players like this, even if it's hard to get there. There's so, I mean, I'm looking at examples. Wentz is a great example, rookie to year two. Their car is a great example. Like, there's examples of these guys, like figuring out how to access these really important

areas because they're to a certain degree they're they're more reproducible when you can access the 10 to 19 yard range in terms of value for your team throwing the ball deep i think is just not something that is really sustainable like for any quarterback like there's no real guy who's like oh i am just accurate when i throw the ball 40 yards down the field no at that point it's wide receiver it's just gino it's the only one it's just you know so like those are the this is the area where like if you can figure it out you can just be good at that for the rest of your life Yeah, that's still how Jared Goff is making $53 million a year. The last stat I wanted to throw out, because I just thought it was remarkable.

The Panthers average negative.370 per dropback on wide receiver and tight end screens last year. Just for a reference, if you throw the ball away, the average is like negative. 0.74. So every time they ran a wide receiver tight end screen, it was like half of a throw away. I bet a lot of those went to Adam Thielen. I don't want to be the anti-Adam Thielen guy, but it's like, because I think now,

if you have a Deonté Johnson, if you have an Xavier Legate, like maybe now Thielen can work in this offense. Though, again, it's another year under his belt, mid-30s, like, it's tough. But, like, as the number one guy last year, it was not good. Let's get to the Atlanta Falcons.

What is your lingering question from 2023 about the Falcons? I mean, the lingering question has been the lingering question for since John Abraham? Yeah, like 20 years, 30 years, I don't know. Are they ever going to address pass rush? Are they ever going to get a pass rush?

That's kind of where I am because, again, like lingering questions. No, they kind of, they fix the offense to a certain degree, right, with the quarterback play. Like, that's probably enough. So that's not like a lingering question. I mean, I like a lot of pieces on the defense in the back end, you know, help that they brought in, Jesse. Bates and Caden Ellis last year, two really good players, AJ Terrell.

So like that, it's just like this D-line is just not good, it's not good, I guess. They're young in some areas. I really liked Arnold W.KTA coming out of Penn State, but he hasn't put it all together yet, hopefully. It's just like, this is not an interesting pass rush, and that might, maybe it's the killer. I'm going to be fascinated at what this defensive line deployment and rotation looks like. Because last year, obviously, Clayas Campbell was there for one year, it doesn't really matter.

But Zach Harrison is a guy that you draft for the Saints' defense. He's 6'5, he's 270. Like, those are the edges that you draft you're playing the Saints' defense, which when Ryan Nielsen was their defensive coordinator, that makes perfect sense. But some of these guys

who more fit a Dean P. style of defense, Anardo Liba Ketti, some of those more undersized edge guys that they drafted two years ago, they didn't really fit the way that the Saints wanted, or the Falcons wanted to play last year. Okay.

Now we're changing defenses again. We're going to a team that drops their guys a lot, being undersized as okay on the outside. What does that look like now? And then you're dropping in two or three new bodies along the defensive front. They drafted Rukororoa in the second round. They drafted Brandon Doris in the fourth round. They drafted Braylon Trice in the third round. So beyond the production and effectiveness of these guys, who actually plays and in what role is one of my biggest questions, if not the biggest question.

if not the biggest question I have about the Falcons this year. Yeah, I definitely agree with that. I think they could maybe find some stuff at edge. Again, like now all of a sudden, Eboketti becomes more of a player like you're talking about, a very interesting player in the defense. Zach Harrison, maybe, maybe Braylon Trice. Like, all these guys are, like, interesting.

The interior, like, is Grady Jarrett a good enough player anymore? at his age. Like, we talked about a little, we kind of hit on Cam Jordan just a little bit, but Grady Jarrett hasn't been the top, top, top player.

You know, he got injured last year, but he wasn't having a great season. David Aniamatta is getting up there in age as well. Like, are you getting anything from the interior? I think usually guys who were picked higher

than the consensus board and Rooka Rora is one of them. Like, those guys usually don't pan out. So it's not, it's I don't have a lot of confidence in a lot of what they're doing on the D-line. And so like,

they're going to have to be interesting, like you said, with their deployment. Dropping people off, coming on different angles, sending the nickel, sending the, like all that stuff. I think that's the only way that they're going to have possibly any type of pass rush next season. It's interesting because Trice and Dorlis were both

really effective on a person at basis. I mean, Trace obviously led the like college football and pressures. So you have two guys who were pretty productive as past rushers. And a row row was more of an idea than anything else. So you drop one guy in who's mostly tools and two guys in who are mostly production. What is the end result of that?

I truly have no idea. It just seems like they were just taking as many swings as they could in that area of the draft hoping that on the other side of it, they would come away with a satisfactory answer. That's my, that's all I got. And that's fine. That's totally fine, by the way.

I just don't know what the end result looks like. I agree with that. I don't know if that's enough. Now, I will say, like, you know, again, there's, we just talked about the Saints defense, also not having a pass rush, but being able to still have a pretty good defense. Again, they didn't play the murderers row of quarterbacks,

but this is another team with Bates, with AJ Terrell, with Ken Ellison coverage. Like, they can cover people. And the Saints blueprint last year, again, like there's no more Ryan Nielsen, so there's less of a connection there. But the Saints blueprint last year was,

we didn't have a pass rush and we were still really good at holding down the Ford in the back end, really, really good. Can you do that this year without a pass rush? Getting rid of, like, the difference of not having,

Jeff Akuta out there. I'm not saying the next guy up, whether it's like Clark Phillips or whatever, is going to be like the best corner we ever seen, but just not having Jeff Akuta and allow the separation that he allows, that's an upgrade in itself. So I think there's a chance that even without the pass rush,

like we can see something of a defense. I'm not saying I believe that's going to happen, but I do think there's this like little time sliver of a pathway. I totally agree with that because if you look at the way that the Rams played last year, the Rams last year got done in by a decent amount of explosive plays on the back end because their cornerback play last year was actively bad. I mean, it was just, it was actively bad.

They're dealing with Akella Weatherspoon and Kobe Durant and Darian Kendrick and it just wasn't good. I mean, they just didn't have good outside corner play. Now you have a team with AJ Terrell, Jesse Bates, and I honestly feel like they're going to come away with workable cornerback play. from the group that they're trotting out there. I was in Atlanta three weeks ago, and I was talking to a guy in the defensive staff

and just flat out asked, I was like, what does that number two corner battle look like? Is there somebody of an edge going in? Like, how do you see it? And the way it was communicated to me is that it is like a free-for-all with like five guys, where they're just going to say,

who's our best guy? And I honestly think that the way that Clark Phillips played as a rookie and the fact that he could survive on the outside. And the other guy who, when I went back and watched Cardinals tape last year, I was actually really impressed with the way that he was playing was Antonio Hamilton.

You're not going to, he didn't make money in free agency because he's 31 years old. But if you're just looking for workable play for one season, you're just trying to fill a gap. You can do worse than the way that he played last year for Arizona. So I do feel like they'll find five, six bodies on the back end that can get them through. And if they get to a place where they can have a league average pass rush,

because like we talked about, those rolls of the dice, bites at the apple, whatever analogy you want to use, the end result is decent, then I think that this defense could be fine. So I also really like Antonio Hamilton. And so PFF,

as most of your listeners who know, we tracked all that stuff, we have our grades and all that stuff. We're trotting out of soon-ish our new coverage grades, which for those who don't know, I guess one of the issues, with our old coverage grades where they're really target-based.

Like you didn't get a grade if you didn't get targeted. Hard to take a ton out of them. Right. So these are all data points no matter whether you were targeted or not, which I think is really exciting. And I have some interesting numbers. And Antonio Hamilton is one of the guys I want to talk about because we have him as the 31st.

Last year we have him as the 31st highest graded in this new coverage grade, advanced coverage grade, the 31st highest graded cornerback in the league last. year and that includes inside guys. That sounds perfect. So you take off like I know like Mike Hilton's in there and and Kyle not Hamilton is safety, but there's some other nickels in there. So you take off like 10 nickels like you're talking about a top 25, top 20? I thought he played really well last year.

I really did. He was good. He's a good player. So like that that to me is is really interesting. I will tell you as we're talking about this and I just said it with Jeff Okuda. Jeff Okuda was 150th ranked corner in this in this. Oh man, don't tell Texans fans that. That's the only problem there is that with the Texans depth chart looks like a cornerback.

I'm with you. I do think that it's an intriguing group. I'm actually excited to see what the Falcons defense looks like in terms of schematically the players that they put out there. I do think that they've obviously done some volume shooting at some positions of need in order to find answers, and that's totally fine with me. mine for the Falcons was essentially we've discussed this young skill group

as just a plus right like oh man they have Kyle Pitts and Drake One and Bejohn Robinson and you drop Kirk Cousins into that it's just all systems go and I wanted to just take a step back and watch those guys at the end of last year I know that they late season 2023 Falcons

weren't anybody's real cup of tea so just going back and checking out what they actually looked like in practice and whether or not that reputation is justified was mine. Very quickly with Bejohn Robinson and Drake London, I was like, all right, I'm done. Those guys are good. Like, Bejohn's just good. Drake London is just really good.

I'm actually super, super excited to watch Drake London in this sort of offense because I think that Drake wanted on just like a shitload of digs and inbreakers catching the ball from Kirk Cousins is a recipe for profit. Like, I'm actually really looking. forward to that. The run game, the Bijan production or lack thereof, I think leads to some larger questions about the Falcons run game that would require more time and study than an exercise like this. I, watching three games, I don't have a better or more satisfactory answer than it was just a different guy screwing up consistently. Like, that really is what it felt like. Because

if you look at the structure of the run game, it was still heavily outside zone based. And teams were playing them for that. If you look at the way that, you look at the way that, edges were playing against them and just the width that teams were playing with. They were ready for it in a way that they might not have been in 2022. And the effectiveness on zone runs in general, they were second in the NFL

and EPA per attempt on zone runs in 2022. This is according to Sports Info Solutions. They earned 54.93 points on those runs because they ran more of them than anyone else in the league by a ton. No one else in the league had more than 30 points. So the Falcons were three, touchdowns better on zone runs than any team in football in 2022.

Last year, they won't one of the worst zone running teams in the league. I still don't really understand it, but I don't think that falls on Bejohn Robinson. I think that he is somebody that you can build your backfield and your running game around pretty comfortably and safely for the next several years. And I feel very good about Drake London. So where this ultimately brought me is what is going on with Kyle Pitts? and is there a reason to be hopeful moving forward? And go ahead.

Well, no, I just wanted to take it back to the run game. So you're bringing in Zach Robinson, who was with the Rams for a long time. We saw the Rams change from an outside zone team to a duo team. Who, like, what, I don't know what the Falcons are going to be because, again, like, I love the idea of Bijon Robinson in an outside zone.

I also, well, like, Besar Robinson is good, it's good. So, like, I kind of like him in whatever offense you can put him in because he's that good. But I also love the idea of him with those, like, sudden jump cuts in a duo run where he's cramming up the middle and he's going to jump it, like Leon Leveon Bell back in the day. So I'm very interested in, like, do they go away from, like, where is Zach Robinson's head after spending all that time and seeing the evolution of?

of that offense with the Rams, now he comes here. Is it a continuation of where the Rams left off? Or is it, okay, no, this is actually like, yes, they weren't good at outside zone last year. However, I believe in my system, it'll work better. And Bejana works. Like, I'm very, I don't know the answer, obviously.

I'm very curious to see where they are with how they run this ground attack. It's really interesting because if you look at the way their offensive line is built, they're undersized, regularly. Lindstrom can do anything. Lindstrom's a monster. I don't think he played up to standard last year,

but Chris Lindstrom is a very good player and has the physical profile to do anything you'll ask of him. But Dolman at center is undersized, and Bertrand's a little bit light in the pants for a guard. Like his selling point, moving inside to guard in his first year was he has the movement skills to be effective in a zone-based running scheme.

So the fact that those are still your pieces, and Jake Matthews has never been a mauler, McGarry is a better fit in that system. I honestly think that if I were, looking for what is the 2.0 extension off of a zone running game? I would look at what the Niners have done more than I would look at what the Rams have done

because I think these skill sets of the offensive line and the way the offensive line is built is actually closer to what you're getting in San Francisco with some of those lighter bodies than it is to what the Rams pivoted to last year. That would be my idea. I think they will end up going back to that outside zone. And again, it's something that Kirk is used to.

Like, you're getting Kirk Cousins who just played in a quote-unquote Rams type system. So, like, I think that's fair enough. And yeah, like the Pitts thing, I don't really have an answer. So I agree with you. Bejohn, great player. London, I think we'll bounce back. Pitts, I think I'm still pretty bullish on Kyle Pitts. I think that there's a way forward for him.

I wonder, I think, like, you want to look at it and say, like, hey, look what happened when T.J. Hawkinson and Kirk, you know, paired up together. But I'm like, that's two different players. I think there's a lot of underneath stuff that he ended up hitting Hawkinson on, which is not like plays designed for Hawkinson. Whereas like with Pitts, it's like, man, you are designing plays for Kyle Pitts. Can he get open on these plays? I still think so. And it'll look better with the best quarterback that he's played since the rookie season, obviously, with Mount Ryan. so I'm still bullish on him. But yeah, that is like kind of where are we getting a real Kyle Pits?

Because if we get the pits that we kind of seen the last two years, or the production, I should say, is London good enough going into year three to be a wide receiver one? I want to say yes because I really like him, but I'm not quite there yet. I think he is.

I think especially in this sort of offense, and I think his skill set fits this sort of offense perfectly. I do. I mean, having him in more condensed sets, having him work over the middle of the field more than he did, because we conceive of an Arthur Smith offense as this middle of the field just over and over and over again, hammering that home, if you look at the percentage of Drake London's routes that were in cuts compared to the Pukunakua's, the Jordan Addison's, guys that were in this style of offense, it's half. It's not there.

And I think if you crank that up, we're going to see the best version that we have of Drake London. And that's before you even get to, I think he can run. Run some, like the Cooper Cup option route shit. Like, I do think he has that in his bag. And for the most part, he's just been an X in this offense. The Kyle Pitts thing for me, I understand how we arrived at the Kyle Pitts usage over the last couple of years. One, you have no speed within your offense.

Kyle Pitts is the most explosive receiver that the Atlanta Falcons had over the last couple years when Scotty Miller was not on the field. He was their most explosive full-time receiver. So what they did with him is they made him a very very important. vertical player. Last year, he ran a combined 160 post goes and corners. No other tight end in the league was over like 125, right? So he was the most vertical-based tight end in football. And I get it. He's 6-5. He's the most explosive player that you have, watching him stride it out and practice. I'm sure it looks beautiful. I would throw 95% of that shit in the garbage can because I don't think

he's good at it. I don't think that's what he's actually good at. Him on benders, him working over the middle of the field, him finding space against zone on corner routes from the slot. That's where I actually think he's best. And what's so encouraging

about this is that in this offense, that's how they'll use him. Like, I would look at the ways that Cooper Cup, Pookanakua, and even like Sam Laporta, have been used over the last couple years, and I would try to piece together the Kyle Pitts role out of those sort of ideas, rather than miscasting him

as an outside the number's vertical presence, even if it's tempting to do that because of what he looks like in the way that he moves. So it's funny because when you said Drake London should get a lot of the cup routes, which I agree with, man, what about Kyle Pitts getting the option routes? Like, what about, what about, he can do it. He can absolutely do it. 100%. And like, the bigger his, because he's a bigger body, you don't need to get that insane separation that those guys gets on, that like the cup in his prime

was getting on those routes. You just need to step, and then the big body will take care of the rest. So I think it's really interesting to have a mix, like you said, a mix of all these guys in the Kua and Leporta and Cup, because I think he's capable of being that kind of quick in and out of his break type of player

over the middle of the field in those option routes. And I think that could help unlock him in a level that we thought was going to be possible after year one. And I still believe it's possible. I don't think that there's like a don't think it's that concerning that with Marcus Marriota and Desmond Ritter that it didn't multiply, qualified by the usage that you're talking about why it didn't work out. Like it makes sense why it didn't work out. The usage is just, I understand again how you get there, but it is frustrating and I just don't think he's that type of guy. He averaged 0.8 yards per route run when lined up wide last year.

He caught 12 of his 30 targets. The EPA per play was like bottom five among all tight ends. If in the slot, he was sixth in yards per route run among all tight ends last year. He was a really effective player. Go watch it. Go watch him run some of those corner routes from the slot. Watch him on high lows working over the middle of the field. He's good at that stuff.

and that's the best part about this is that you don't have to play outside of the structure of your offense to utilize him that way. That's how this offense is built. So for him and London, I actually think that there is a real path to us seeing something close

to the best versions of themselves because I think there's skill sets and the way this thing is built align kind of beautifully if you use the right way. Yeah, I'm like, I'm not a huge darn-al-moony fan but like gives you something

on the outside. Like there's something. At least you gave a stretcher, right? Like, so Kyle Pitts no longer has to do that. That's why I think it's okay. My concern is, are we lining Darno Mooney up on the outside as a vertical stretch player? Because I want to see Pitts inside and I want to see London closer to the formation.

But I don't think that Darno Mooney is like an outside the numbers on the ball sort of player. So I don't know exactly how it all fits together. But I do think that there is a version of it that I can get mildly excited about. I think your best bet is as much as I love the idea of London playing a bunch of different roles, I do think he's your best kind of on the ball type of receiver on the outside. So that might be like by default what you end up having to do because it can be physical. But on the ball receivers in this offense still run of a ton of in breaking routes.

Like Puka Nakua as an on the ball player, that's fine. So again, I think you're right there. But this offense deploys those on the ball ex receivers in a different way than most offenses do. Yeah. It's just like the ability to say, okay, we're going to play on the ball and you can get off press, but you're not going to be lined up on a sideline. You're going to be lined up next to the, you're going to be line up next to tackle. You're just the most outer player on this offense. And again, I think that these guys, that type of offense really does complement the players they should be and the players that I think they can be. So I understand there's been a lot of, there's been a drumbeat of optimism about what the Falcons offense could be with Kirk Cousins and these pizzas.

I actually think a lot of that is justified after going back and kind of rethinking and reconceiving of this. I also really like her cousins. Like he's a really good quarterback. Like that's the other thing. These guys don't come available in free agency very often. Like a quarterback at this level. Obviously coming off the injury, I get it.

But like this is a really, really good quarterback at this point in his career. So I'm excited for this offense. All right. That is all we got for the NFC South. For this being our last show and for this being the division that I think most people would shit on the most, I actually had a very good time doing that. That was very enjoyable. I appreciate you joining me for it. Very cathartic experience to get the Saints woes off my chest to start this thing off. I'm going to have a great one. I am so glad you were here for that because it provides so much covering fire for me and that entire conversation. The fact that I could couch it in, he's a Saints fan. I promise.

It's beautiful. That's what I was really doing. I was using you for that one specific reason. Look, I'm here for you. Anytime you need me as buffer for Saints fans, I'm here. I appreciate it, buddy. All right, guys, that is all we got. Sincerely appreciate everyone who joined us for this.

It's a pretty meaty off-season slate of shows to do. And for all of these guests who aren't employed by the company where I work to take the time to do this with me, just a blanket thank you to all of them because it's too much homework to assign a podcast guest in June but everyone was game and that means a lot to me. So thank you truly to every,

all eight guests who did these shows with us over the last couple months. We'll be back tomorrow, Friday, doing our next installment of the supporting cast rankings. We're going to do the NFC tomorrow with our buddy Mike Clay from ESPN. Mike does a really good job

of just conceiving of how units are built in the, off season and thinking about it that way. I thought he was the perfect guest for an exercise like this. So very excited to talk to Mike about the supporting cast and the NFC. Just to get ahead of this a little bit, we are only going to have one show next week. Next week, this is the 4th of July. We're going to have a show on Tuesday, and then we're going to take a break for the rest

of the week. We'll be back the following week, normally scheduled programming, all of that stuff. But just wanted to let you guys know that we're going to give you a little bit of time off and we're going to take a little bit of time off as we head. into the 4th of July weekend. But we'll be back with the show tomorrow. Until then, appreciate all of you listening. We'll talk to you soon.

This was the Athletic Football Show.