The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Mailbag Monday: Hall of Fame running backs, tight end value, the Colts' offense with Anthony Richardson, and more

Episode Date: May 8, 2023

Robert Mays and Nate Tice are going to open up the TAFS mailbag every Monday for the next couple months, and it all starts right here. The guys discuss the new path for running backs to the Hall of Fame, the value of the tight end position, the look of the Colts' offense with Anthony Richardson at the helm, and a whole lot more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. It's the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays, joining me today. It's my good friend, Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing great mail time. It is mail time. It's awesome.

I'm doing very well. This is, I like our mailbags. I love our fans, so it's a great combination that we get mailbag from our fans. And we get to talk about it. You guys have great ideas, so ready to dive into this episode. Very excited to do these. We're going to do them weekly all the way through, essentially training camp, I would assume.

So I'm going on my honeymoon, which is part of the reason for that. So I'm going to be gone for a couple weeks, even though I'm going to be on the show while I'm gone. So we're going to do these essentially every single week, probably through the end of June. And we really, really appreciate the thought you guys put into them. I mean, opening the inbox yesterday and going through these. First of all, so many of you said so many very nice things, which I deeply appreciate. So thank you for everyone that sent along a warm, kind note because it really does matter and mean a lot to us. And second of all, they're great ideas.

So everyone that sent in a question, everyone that took the time out of their day to do it, we sincerely appreciate it. I said thank you to some of you. I can't say thank you to all of you. I just didn't have time to do it. But just know that every single person who sent one in, we appreciate you taking the time to do that. So we're going to dig into our first one today, and we're going to kick it off with a voicemail. Kent, lay it on us.

Hey, guys, Eric here. So my question is related to the lifespan of running backs and how, they're used nowadays, and it's oftentimes seen as you just get one, use them on one contract, and it's generally frowned upon a lot of times to give them a second contract. It just strikes me as odd in the modern NFL when, in theory, you know, this is the best that training and nutrition and health in general has been, and guys tend to be playing longer at some other positions. what shifted with running backs? I mean, Curtis Martin had a career year at 31 years old.

Tiki Barber had a career year at 30. And now it's like if guys are hitting 26 and 27 and still productive, it's surprising. And then along those lines, the way that running backs are used now where it's just, hey, let's try to get five or six years out of them tops. And then move on, do you think we'll ever see another Hall of Fame running back? Yeah, I don't know if guys like that. Derek Henry or Zeeke would be considered for the Hall of Fame. But if not those guys, is there ever going to be another Hall of Fame running back with the way they're used?

Love this question, because I think it's a little bit of a twist on a conversation that we've had a lot. This is about running back value. This is about kind of the downstream effects of that conversation about running back value. And two things that I haven't really considered. So I appreciate Eric for calling in and giving us the question. Let's start with this idea of running back longevity. Any thoughts here? I think that there are some broad strokes that he was painting with that we can dig into if you actually look at some of the numbers associated with these guys.

But at first blush, what's your reaction to that question? It was the final part about how many would make the Hall of Fame that actually hit me and I go, I have not thought about that. It's great. It's great. And so we'll dig into that as well because I, it's fantastic. We had a lot of great questions. And we started with this and that like really rattled my brain a little bit because I hadn't thought about the repercussions of that. and long term changes how the game has looked at.

Because we've done it for receivers, where now that we have this glut of receivers, the game has become so pass happy that we have to change what Hall of Fame parameters look like for quarterbacks and pass catchers because in another era, Kirk Cousins is going to the Hall of Fame, baby. So we have to change that. But we haven't thought about having to make the same change for running backs on the other side of the coin. The bar race for those positions and I feel like the bar is going to lower for the

runner back position. Great point. The only comparison I had was pitchers and baseball because they don't start as frequently. It's a great idea. The last time a pitcher is going to win 300 games, like they think that's going to be a really hard feat. I mean, it always was, but even now, that's like my only comparison. And I was looking at who's made the Hall of Fame recently and like Terrell Davis made it with three all pro teams, but he also won MVP. And he won two offensive player of the year awards.

That's a really good, really good example. because now you're not going to have Derek Henry is the one that comes to mind for me. Derek Henry right now, if he has two more thousand yard seasons, he will be 30th all time in rushing yards. There are so many guys ahead of him on that list that are not in the Hall of Fame. Fred Taylor, Stephen Jackson, Corey Dillon, LaShawn McCoy, Warwick Dunn, Jamal Lewis, guys that really aren't even that close to getting in. But Derek Henry has a first team all pro. He has a second team all pro.

Those guys, I think there's one or two all pro teams in the group of six. Fred Taylor made one pro bowl. So I think that the way we have to shift it is, rather than looking at a mass statistics, where are you at in relation to your peers at the position? And I think that if you do that tweak, it still doesn't come up with a huge list. But I think it makes it more possible and creates more avenues for. for guys to eventually get to the Hall of Fame. Yeah.

It accolades is what you're going to have to look at, which is so crazy. And also, not only accolades, this is where you got to look at kind of like what the league average was, I guess. Yeah. And look at how above league average you were and look at total yards as well. Because all these guys are going to be asked, and this is going to be my second point to this question, but I want to focus on this is these guys are asked outside maybe Derek Henry to be pass catchers and beyond the field.

So you're going to look at touches and total yards. That's going to be just as important where that used to be more of an anonymally. Anonymally. Anonomily. Oh my God. I can't say it. Anomily. I know.

That was actually, I know how to say it. It was just 9 a.m. and on the West Coast time right now on a Friday. So it's, but that was in the 90s. That was more like, ooh, this guy caught about, you know, this guy, Roger Craig and Ricky Waters. They catch a bunch of balls that they're totally different than the other bruisers. And now that's more like the, what you need to be a true running back in the NFL right now.

Maybe outside Derek Henry and like Nick Chub. You know, outside of that's more of a love. luxury thing. So I know, this is, this got the, this really got the, the noodle cooking. All right. So guys that have retired in the last like three or four, five years that could be Hall of Famers or currently are active players. What does the list look like for you at the position? Oh, my God. Who has retired in the last three, four, five years? I have a couple. Yeah, there's some out there. Adrian Peterson 100% is a hallfair. Oh, 100%. He's in top five all time. He was a MVP. Generation defining player at the position. He was an MVP at running back. He was the last

one to do it, I think he probably will be the last one to do it. No brain or no questions asked. One guy who recently retired that I think you could probably make an argument for is Marshaun Lynch. Okay. He's iconic. Iconic players, Super Bowl winner, one first team all pro, one second team all pro. He's at like 10,400 yards, which is just ahead of where Derek Henry would be if he gets those two thousand yards seasons. So like 30th all time, you'd probably make an argument for him. The Pro Bowl all pro point I was making before was mostly about Fred Taylor, Stephen Jackson,

and Corey Dillon worked on. Sean McCoy is two all-pros. So the Sean McCoy probably has at least somewhat of an argument. He also has Super Bowl wins. So those are the three guys that I'd probably throw out there. And then, you know, Derek Henry, if he were to have like one or two more just outlandish seasons. Bunker years. He's running for 1,500 yards.

He gets another first team all pro. Then I think he gets a little bit closer to this generation defining back in kind of the post-Adrian Peterson world. But it's really hard to get there because. Guys have shorter lifespans. They don't get as many opportunities. So the chance to be that best player at your position, even over a three or four year stretch, you combine that with injuries at the position. It's just more of a moving target.

And it's more fleeting. Yeah, it is. It's going to be, we're going to be looking at who has like three all pro teams is going to be like the bar. Yes. It should be. Which seems at first you were like, that's so low. And then you look and you're like, well, that's the peaks now.

And that's how it goes. I mean, you look year and year out. Josh Jacobs just had a huge, huge year, kind of good player, but out of nowhere. And then that's how it is. It feels like every year. There's going to be a new guy with the crown. Jonathan Taylor did it the year before. And Jonathan Taylor, I think kind of a bounce back here this year, obviously, but it's, again, it's so up and down year to year.

They don't have those long, prolonged periods of dominance and success. The first part of the question I wanted to hint at a little bit because I think it's an interesting point. I'll just say, most running backs, even over the last 20 or so years, they, they do start to decline around age 30. I mean, you look, Curtis Martin, he played, really. Yeah, like Danian Tomlinson did. He started to go down after that age. Emmett Smith did starting to go down after that age, like a little bit of a cliff.

Curtis Martin played one more season after that season that he had his career year. Tiki Barber, that year that Eric referenced, that was his last year in the league. So for the most part, the cliff has been relatively stable for a little while. I think what's changed is our demand. on what we need the running game to be. So here's the example I would throw out. In 2010, Stephen Jackson rushed for 1,240 yards at age 27. He was the Rams primary running back, high volume running back for each of the next two years.

In that 2010 season, when he rushed for 1,241 yards, his EPA per rush and success rate were worse than Zeeks this year. But he had two more years as the Rams' primary running back. And the Falcons one. And then he kept playing. Because what we expected out of the position where you could just be a grinder and efficiency and explosiveness was not nearly at the same premium, I think teams were willing to live with that a little bit more than they are now that the league is completely exploded. That 2010 season, the year after that, that's when the league changes for good. That is the year where Rogers, Breeze, Brady, they had insane passing seasons and it feels like the paradigm kind of shifted in that 2011. 11 stretch.

So Stephen Jackson comes right at that pivot point in the way the sport was constructed. And then even Curtis Martin, okay, that year that Eric mentioned, in 2004, I believe it was. Curtis Martin had a 46.4% rushing success rate, which is pretty good. It's very good. Yeah, yeah. But it was 0.04 EPA per rush. Okay. Okay.

That's essentially what A.J. Dillon did this year. Okay. Okay. You got to be super efficient now. It's super explosive. Yes. That's what it is. what it is. Yes, that's the game. That's the game. And so if they're not going to do that anymore,

they're not going to give 30-year-old running backs, 350 carries to rush for four yards to carry. It's a mid-range shooter, mid-range shooter in basketball. It's like, yeah, you're good at it, but it's like, you got to be more now. You got to be at the rack or you got to shoot threes now. That's just how the game is. Here's the staff that I think is really telling when it comes to the explosiveness element of this. Curtis Martin had 371 carries that year. Okay. He had seven carries of 20 plus yards on those 371 carries. Seven. My God. Here are some guys who had seven carries of 20 plus yards this season.

Jeff Wilson, Travis E.T.N. Deante Foreman. Damien Pierce. Deante Foreman had, Damien Pierce had seven? Yeah. Oh, my God. Okay. Tony Pollard had nine on 193 carries.

Curtis Martin had 371 carries in 2004. What a wonderful stat. So I think that kind of explains the difference in what. what you need out of your running back in the two errors. It does. It's all about explosive plays now, especially how defenses play. They, they, oh, you want a four yard gain? Good.

That's what defense is say to you now. Fine. Three yards, fine. But if you're gashed them for 12, 15, that's where, okay, that's the math now. How do we create explosive plays? Everybody has to find a different way to do it, uh, whether basketball or running the ball. And as opposed to efficient plays and success rate, it's a balance of both.

But that's where it raised. And I also, what you're saying, the asks of these guys, not only being explosive, but I also think as past catchers. There's, you have to be a three down back now and that's where the value is. And for me, I looked at, I just did a quick and dirty math kind of thing, looking at running backs that played more than 500 snaps. How many, how do you think there were last year? I just want to like, because I had no idea.

It's a great question. Maybe a dozen? 25. Oh, wow. Okay. That's more than I would have thought. It's, it's, it's raised. It's going up.

Uh, last 2021, 21, 23, 20, 18. Then 2019 was 21. And then the, the, the, mid 2010. It was all like 16, 18, 18, 16, all that number, but it's growing. It's growing. It's growing. It's growing. It was hot. That's really interesting. And just snaps played. And then if you look at touches, 250 plus touches. There's 18 last year. There's only 10 in 2021. There's 9 in 2020. But then 19 and 2018. But then it hovered in the mid-2010. So 13, 14, 10, 13. So touches and snaps played. This is where I, the CMC discussion we had last year, and I brought this up multiple

times has stuck with me about this is where the value when these guys can be past catchers and be on the field and be blockers. It just snaps played because defenses have gotten so good with all the data they've gotten about tells and personnel. And this started what really the girly with the Rams is the big revelation I think I had with this because they're like, no, he's on the field for 99% of the snaps. Because if you keep the same guy on and he can do everything, they can't go, oh, you know, like when we're with the Raiders, oh, J-1 and Rashard's in, guarantee you this is a pass play.

and the defenses can go do, do, do, do, do. We're going to call this play, this blitz, this, you know, pass, we're going to drop eight. We can do something different. So I think the value comes in. This is something I'm still ongoing and workshopping in my brain. But it's like a guy like CMC or Austin Echler. That's the number three, you know, in your passing attack, as well as being the primary rushing option. You know, that's value right now.

You know, Echler's cap hit last year with $7 million. So if he's your top three pass catcher, and for a while, he's number one while while the receivers were hurt throughout the season. And then he's like, you know, he's your best, your number one rusher. So even if this year he's like, isn't that worth like more than what Alan Lazzards getting paid? If he's your number three pass catcher and he's your number one rush option, isn't that worth like $18 million? You know, and if you're paying them seven, like that's where the surplus comes in. And I think more teams are real as in that.

And that's where the Bejon value comes in. Even if looking at Bejon, I do not adore us running backs in the top 10. I don't. Bejon is special, but it's still something hard for me to swallow. But once again, the second half of the first round, not as rich. When those first round grades diminish. If we have 15 to 18 first round grades in any given draft, when those start to go away, fuck it.

Fuck it. Seriously, look at the cap hits. So they were saying, oh, Bijan might go to the Cowboys. And people are, oh, my God, oh, my God. If Bejohn went to the Cowboys, this year would be $4 million. Really? We're going to throw our hands up over a $4 million cap hit. And you could say longevity.

yeah, we look at how many players overall get second contracts. It's less than half. So what, you know, there is, that's where I'm still workshopping this. I don't have like a grand statement, but I will say if a player is touching the ball on the field the most or more than more often than other positions, that has value. That's why offense alignment are valuable. That's why quarterback is valuable. They're on the field all 60 snaps.

So that's why I just think it's interesting. I think teams are kind of coming through that or coming around on that and realizing that this guy can stay on the field every. single down and we can throw him the ball and he can pass protect that has a lot of value to it. And I think there's going to be more guys available like that. I have three things I want to say to that. One, target volume and that being why you're the second or third receiver on your team.

Those are not valuable targets. So if you look at Austin Eckler's receptions last year, like those are not valuable targets for the most part. You could throw those balls to anyone and have the volume be the same and the results are not going to be that different. he's a better player, but on overall, targets to running backs just aren't valuable targets. So I think that that is kind of what warps how valuable they can be as receivers as we're having this discussion. That's part of it for me. Yeah.

Well, it has to be what they're, well, that's why I use Echler and CMC because they're getting plays designed for them. Yeah. It's not getting a checkdown. There's a lot of checkdown. There's a lot of checkdown. There's a lot of checkdowns.

Yeah. But he has more, he had 36 first downs last year, catching the ball. I'm sure that's right up there with some slack guys. It's, and I get it. I get the volume is not all the way there.

But if they're being success rate, you know, a person's second down being the checkdown, yada, yada, that's why I bring up those two. And maybe, you know,

Camara, Camara, is that those guys, because they have plays designed for them, especially on third down. Yes. That's where the value comes. If you're creating first down,

it's a different thing. But overall, that's the big thing. Running back targets are typically not valuable. No, exactly. But if they're on the field, that matters too,

because you're not giving tells to the defense. There's other, there's just more booster effect. I hit on because Nick Fram sent us an interesting question about why some of these teams potentially are going to go with this primary back that plays all these different roles. The Patriots, the Cowboys with Tony Pollard, the Bucks not drafting and running back with Rashad White. He's like, why are teams going in this direction? I think you just answered it.

It's because if we have these guys that are playing more snaps and they can play out these roles and you don't give tells, are more teams going in that direction? Ramadra can do everything. Tony Pollard can do everything. Rashad White can do everything. So is there more value in a guy like that now because you don't want to give tells, the defense. I think that's actually a really good answer. So there's a lot to chew on here, and I'm sure we'll spend a lot more time chewing out. We've spent 20 minutes answering that first

question. We're going to be here for six hours. All right. Next to one here, this one's very quick. Jeff Rudberg says, Robert, you have my permission to be a high school Harry for a day, some slow news day in the summer. Can you tell a sweet coach Singletary story from your youth football team? For people who do not know, when I was in seventh and eighth grade, Mike Singletary was an assistant on our youth football staff. Okay? My dad, my dad, was the head coach. Okay. Coach Mike was the offensive coordinator.

This is a true story. Okay. So offensive coordinator? He was the offensive coordinator. Okay. Okay. So. So.

One day at practice, I think I was in eighth grade. We're, it was one of the first days we put on pets. And so we were doing tackling drills for the first time. And he arrives at the field in full pets. Oh, my God. Okay. Mike Singletary. Okay.

So at this point, this was probably. 2003. So he was 45 years old. He's in full pads. He's going through bag drills. He loves his bag drills. He's going through bag drills.

And we're starting to do tackling drills and he's like showing us how to do them. Not on the kids, but just like on dummies and stuff. And when he was doing it, he had glasses on, like sunglasses on. And they fell down. And the eyes. there's those like very famous like Mike Singletary eyes that was involuntary like it's just what he

looked like when he was doing anything on a football field so I'm sitting there I'm 14 and I'm watching these Mike Singletary huge eyes as he's hitting these bags and I'm like holy shit this is the scariest thing I've ever seen in my entire life so however intense you think Mike Singletary is that is how intense Mike Singletary was the other really good story is he got ejected from a game once of course so a youth fo and he was not like a crazy guy. You know, like, he was kind of calm.

He's like, he's very calm. He's a very even keeled guy. And so he got, we were playing at Wakanda, middle school. I will never, ever forget this.

And it was a night game for whatever reason, which you didn't play that much of in youth football. And this youth football referee through Mike Singletary out of the game. Oh, I'm sure that guy's told the story for the rest of his life as well. Yeah. So those are my two. I got more,

but those are my two fans. That's amazing. My dad coached a lot of my, my youth sports, which I appreciate more as I've gotten older. But he always got kicked out of basketball games, not football or not baseball, basketball. He got teed up quite often in basketball. So that was,

that was always an experience for me seeing Mike Tice, head coach of the Vikings getting teed up at seventh grade, traveling basketball games in Minneapolis. Coach Mike was very good to us. I have a very, like, sappy story that I will tell one day at the appropriate time by him and my dad and just the type of guy he was. but he, really fun memories.

It really kind of, obviously, unique experience. Yeah. I think back on it now, and him and my dad are just sitting at our kitchen table, like plan and practice, you know, the fact that Mike Singletary was in that role,

as my dad was the head coach, was always very, very funny. All right. That's super sweet. All right, next one here. I wanted to answer this one because you and I, I don't think have talked about this since it happened,

because Sando was the one that jumped on when the trade happened. Oh, yeah. So Julia Gunther says, I'm a Jets fan, And I can't help but feel like this has all been such terrible process since the moment they hired Nathaniel Hackett all the way through the Randall Cobb signing today. They lost the trade negotiations and their cap could be screwed up for a couple years. This all smells of desperation, headline seeking, and Woody Johnson interference,

or maybe this regime just isn't as smart as I thought they were. I get the theory of these moves and still think there's a chance it all works out, but it's more likely to completely blow up in their faces. Even if they're right, this gets them a top 12 offense and a top 10 defense. They could get unlucky and lose early in the playoffs for the bounce of the ball. In a year from now, they could be looking for a QB again, but with a much worse cap problem. Am I scarred by this team's past, or is this the same old Jets? Someday this team will have competent ownership, right?

So what do you think about the Aaron Rogers pursuit and kind of the way the Jets have gone about all of this? Because again, I don't think you and I have talked about this very much. I'm on the record, but I don't know how much you are. The result of getting Rogers is like, okay, yeah, but it was the process of getting there and the leaks and maybe some of the sloppiness. I think that was involved is what I, my biggest takeaway is that, you know, everyone knows the,

the, the, the, the, the, the, jays, like a radio show every week.

He talks about game plan stuff and personal stuff. I know more about the Jets day to day because of all the weeks they have. And I think that's the biggest takeaway I've gotten from this is that their process evolved was something. And, well,

also I want to say, you're going to have to tear that franchise from Woody's cold dead hands before he gives that up. So I'm sorry, this is going to be your ownership for a while. But it's just been, I don't know. I just don't agree with the process that they've gone through the whole thing and just like how open it's been. Not in a good way open, not transparent, but more leakage for both sides.

I mean, Aaron said on a radio show that he wanted to play for the Jets. But it was already happening before that. But if that doesn't happen, then I don't think the Jets ever publicly said like we're openly trying to trade for Aaron Rogers until he said that. I think that it's a mess, but it's a mess coming from multiple. different directions when you think about the public perception. Oh, yeah. No, and that's what I say. This was the end result I think we all expected after a while. We're like, oh, yeah, yeah, sure. It's just that I think getting dragged on and everything coming out. I think that's really the takeaway. And that's what the end result, if they just trade for Rogers would be, oh, that's cool. But I think just the process of it is the

oh, same old jets, even with the Rogers coming out and like you said, the McAfee show. Because I think it just like, if they have a handle on the thing, everything would just been cleaner and the messaging and the communication and I get it. There's so many parties involved, including one particular quarterback who has a lot of personality. So I get it. It's probably never was never going to be clean, but and also you have one side, the Packers who don't say shit. And so you got it's a, it's a, it's, it's, the parties involved made it this. Hey, Mike Murphy talks a little bit. He'll talk a little bit at various, like a season ticket holder events. It's always he checks too. Outside of a bus. You know, he's the one that'll squawk a little bit sometimes.

squawk a little bit. Sorry, but also just the other things that the other ramifications of this of signing Lizard to a solid deal. And I like Lazzard, but, you know, Randall Cobb is now a jet, which I think is hilarious. And I just have to say this because it just, the only like way this reminds me of it, other than like a pitcher or making sure that he gets this catcher or something like that is that horses need companion animals. A lot of them do.

The moody ones do. And Sea Biscuit used to have this big old pony next to him that. So they would try. Sea Biscuit was just so talented, but was just all over the place. And they knew he had talent and everything. He was such an angry and aggressive animal. So at first they brought him a goat to be his companion. Like horses truly like get along with cats really well.

They gave him a goat and he threw the goat out of his stall. Like actually picked him up and threw him out. So they gave him this big pony named Pumpkin. And Pumpkin was his best friend. And like they knocked the stall down so those two can hang out all together. And Pumpkin was why Rogers, or Rogers, why C-Biscuit actually ended up being like, like, like calming down and being a better day-to-day horse. So I think Rogers needs his pumpkins.

And I think that's Randall Cobb. I just want to tell C-Biscuit anecdote right here. It's Kentucky Derby. I love that. I love that so much. Here's my response to that, okay? Sorry. Tom Brady had his little sheep friend in Rob Grownkowski come to the bucks in 2020.

And then he got Antonio Brown too. I mean, but those are all pro-caliber players as opposed to. That's understandable. But I think when you bring in a, a quarterback with this sort of stature, you make some concessions to him. And we've seen it in the past and it's gone fine. Whether or not Rogers, I think Rogers probably does deserve similar treatment to Tom Brady,

even if it does look silly. I understand that the optics of this are fucking all over the place. I mean, the McAfee stuff and, you know, the openly talking about wanting to get traded and it all just being completely public and, you know, both sides being like, oh, well, he's going to be here, but we're trying to figure out. It's a mess. But in the end, this was the best. outcome.

When you have the roster that you have and you look at the available guys at the position and you think about when this team is going to potentially be ready to win, I think that I don't think they were a quarterback away. I think they have offensive line concerns. You know, I think the framing of this is important to take into consideration. But this was the best shot. So landing on this, even if it's for a first round pick next year and a second round pick this year and even if you're a little bit worried about the capits, I still think that

the timeline and the way that everything landed is okay because this is the best chance for the Jets to be a championship caliber team in the short term over the next couple of years. If it doesn't work, then it doesn't work. But I still think that you've taken into consideration how more abundant the franchise has been for the last five to 10 years, how little excitement there's been, the limited expectations, the track record of quarterbacks, all of these different things. I think where it ended up is fine, even if it was a little messy to get there. The end result made sense.

It really did. And like you said, taking advantage of, and you don't want to do the, oh, drop Rogers into the 2022 Jets like we've talked about. I always love when you bring that up. But the Jets defense will be a lot of fun this year. And they have a lot of really good players. They have some good, good skill position players. Breeze Hall coming back from injury, the past catchers that they have. The offensive line is, you know, eh, but it's, it's Rogers now with that offensive line.

You know, Zach Wilson behind that offensive line, the Jets were still contending for a playoff spot last year. Now, again, even if you have 10% drop off on the defense, Rogers will overcome that 10% as quarterback play. More than that. More you'd hope. Yeah. More than that. Especially, you got to remember, Zach Wilson was literally the worst quarterback in football. And you're going from Rogers who, yes, maybe took a half step back, but Roger still has those Rogers flashes and still can have it and he's going to be motivated.

So he's at the OTAs, man. He's throwing the guys right now. It's May 3rd. I mean, that's a good sign. I don't think he even showed up for any of that last year with the Packers. So that's the difference right there. So that's where it's a lot of ha ha, yeah, laugh. And that's why I want to crack those jokes.

But like you said, the end result always made sense. And it's the best they could do right now. And I understand it. All right. Next one here. I wasn't sure if I wanted to kind of crack the glass on this one so early. But I thought it was a really good question. And we can address it in some form here and then maybe a little bit more down the road.

We keep pepper. We keep kind of like dropping hits. that we want to talk about this. Yeah, I know. So Kevin Allumer, I don't know if that's how I pronounce it, but I'm doing my best here. It says, how am I supposed to think about tight ends going forward? I feel like we got a lot of big signals this off season. On the one hand, you had good veterans that got franchise tag lost off season, going

for cheap this off season, Gisicki for one year and five million guaranteed, Schultz for one year and six million guaranteed, which makes sense with a deep tight end class. But then you had six tight ends going the first two rounds, including a few that seemed push way up the board, schoonmaker Strange. So are we valuing this position or not? Is this year just a funky blip? Take the Bears, for instance. A lot of noise about the Bears extending commit this off season, but at what price?

He seems on the Schultz tier, and he just got peanuts thrown at him. The playbook for this position seems to be the franchise tag due to the low number. But now the guys actually hit free agency are going even cheaper than that. The Bears can't give Kemet four years a $12 million per year when they just saw what happened this off season, can they? Signed, confused Kevin in Chicago. That's a great sign off right there. I do think this class was a blip on how stacked it was, but as far as tight ends. But overall, and this is something we've hinted at, and it's hard because I don't want to give too much away of a discussion here.

But I do think that the body types at this position, there is a little bit, the minds have been expanded from the coaches and how their roles can be in a willingness to use the smaller move tight ends on a more down-to-down basis as opposed to the specialist types that maybe in the past. I think the great white buffalo is always going to be that true wide tight end, that blocks in line, the grocks. Like that's the white buffalo. Like, of course you want a gronk, but how many gronks are there? There's not a lot. So I think, but that pass catching F, as I call them, or a lot of people call them, that's what is kind of getting the bump right now. That's where the strange pick comes in the second round. Kincaid going in the first round.

Those guys, Leporta going to be in tight end two. Those guys, because there's more of a willingness to, I wouldn't say high. them, but a ways to mitigate their weaknesses as blockers. RPO's slide action. Evan Ingram is the best example. That's the one I'm going to keep coming back to how Doug Peterson used them with the Jags last year. Slide actions where they're blocking across on run plays or on bootlegs, just blocking away from the point of attack. And I think because defenses are more willing to have lighter bodies out there, nickels or being based out the nickel or having safeties as the slot guy.

I think this, there's a willingness to go, well, we're going to have mismatches anyways. We'll just call better plays for that tight end. We'll use different formations to get them in better spots. So I think it's just like, because of that merging of body types that we're seeing on defense, we've talked about this, safety's playing the slot all the time. I've talked about power slots. Well, who cares if a receiver weighs 220 and then you get a tight end that can move just as well. That's 240.

You know, like it's just they're a pass catcher. So I think this is a long-winded answer to say, I think there has become more of a creativity, more of a willingness to use these body types that are not the ideal, why size, that they don't look at them as a weakness. They look at them, how do we expound this strength or expand on this strength that they bring as a pass catcher or as a mismatch in the passing game? So that's where I think my answer is right now is just that body types are changing and also just offensive play cards are just more creative now. the value and whether this is a blip and how you can kind of understand this season in particular, I think, comes from a few different directions. One, there's probably not a huge demand and free agency because they're not elite players or even like high-end players, and there's so many guys available in the draft. So why would you spend $12 million a year on Dalton Schultz when you can draft Luke Schoonmaker in the third round?

And I think that that's a reasonable way to think about it. I also think that it was a down receiver class. So if there aren't that many secondary or tertiary receiving options available in the class, do we go tight end instead because it's really just about finding another pass catcher? And then I think that brings me to the last point. There's going to be a certain tier of tight ends where teams are going to decide it's worth paying the premium at tight end because it's less than we're going to pay for middling receivers. You have to decide where that line is. the Vikings decided that T.J.

Hawkinson was above that line. We're willing to move down from the second to the fourth round and trade a future third round pick for T.J. Hawkinson. Because if we pay T.J. Hawkinson $13 million on his next extension, Alan Lazard is making $13 million. And we think that T.J. Hawkinson is a better player and a better receiving option. That line, it depends on where you draw.

To me, Cole Komet does not rise to that line in terms of what he's done over the first couple years. Okay. T.J. Hockinson, this season was sixth in yards per route. run in the NFL among tight ends. Cole Comette was 26th. He was right between Robert Tanya and Foster Moreau. He was behind Kyle and Granson, Noah Fant, Will Disley, Austin Hooper, Gerald Everett.

So, I mean, just. Who's like, who's like 12th on that metric or like, you know, so this is, this is perfect. David and Joku is 11th. Okay? And when David and Joku got that extension, people were just like, what are, what are they doing? But then you look at what that extension looks like. compared to what you're going to pay a receiver, and you start to understand it a little bit.

Shout out to Barnwell, because he was the first person after the Hocketson trade that I think kind of push me to this line of thinking, and I've wholeheartedly adopted it because I think it's really smart. If tight ends cost less than receivers, but your tight end is just as valuable of a third pass catching option, as that receiver is going to be, do tight ends become an inefficiency to an extent? And I do think that we're seeing that to a degree, but there's still a line. and there's a chance that Dalton Schultz falls right at that line or just below it. He was 15th in yards per outrun among tight ends this year. And guys that are Darren Waller, David and Jokou, you know, Pat Fryer, Mooth, T.J. Hawkinson,

do they kind of exist above that line? Yeah, I think, I think that Donald Schultz is perfect for this. I was just why I asked that was like, we should come up with a phrase, like the Dalton Schultz line. The Schultz line. Like the Schultz line. I mean, but that's the best way to look at it because that's what, what's get these guys on the field. best five. That's that's all it doesn't matter what the position is. And I think Nujoku is like an

awesome example because they were betting on his ascension. They, they saw the glimpses of him as a three down tight end. It was that he was F only that could develop into a inline Y. And he's done a good job. He's got, I mean, he's really developed as a blocker and inline stuff where there, and I think that when they signed him, he was only like 24 when they signed that. He was very young. And that's another thing. The development curve at that position is also a little bit. different once you have to bet on. So steep. Yes, the learning curve at it and just the physical demands. So it's an interesting discussion because that, and this comes into the runningback stuff, too,

is just like, where do you get your first downs from? And it doesn't matter what the position is. Of course, you want that ace receiver. There's not many tight ends or, of course, not running backs that your, your ace primary number one, but two, three, and four can get filled out by any other spot. And I think that's what we're trying to figure out what the balance of that is. Can you win a one-on-one match by Graefi. Yeah.

Yeah, that's it. Based on the construction of our offense, if I can create a one-on-one matchup for you against a linebacker, can you win it? If you rise to that level, then you're worth paying as a tight end. And T.J. Hawkinson is exactly. Yes.

That's exactly who he is. That's why they made the trade, because when they were thinking about the construction of the offense and how they were going to align, I wish I could think about the exact, because he's told me, like the exact formation that it makes sense in. But if you can create, based on structure, those one-on-one matchups for your tight ends,

if you have a Justin Jefferson in or whoever. And if that, through those matchups, if they're through that structure, if you can win those matchups, then I think that you're the type of guy that we're talking about here. Yep. And that's why, that's why we were bullish on Kincaid is that is with the bills is because you split him out in the slot, he's definitely a mismatch on the linebackers. Even if you, if you can beat safeties, then it's like, okay, now you're a plus player.

And then it goes on from there. And it doesn't just have to be speed and whipping a guys off. You can box a guy out as well and out physical guys. But that's just the threshold of this. But I think the Schultz line is what I'm going to come back to because I do think it is an efficiency right now. And again, it comes back to I think coaches are now more willing. They've, again, expanded their mind of how to use these guys outside of, oh, you're just a wing. Oh, you're just in the backfield.

No, no, put you in the slot. Line you up one-on-one on the outside. So it's a really cool market and really cool kind of trend going on right now throughout the league. All right. Kent, let's do our next voicemail here. Hey, Rob, from Indianapolis. I am super hyped about the, Colts drafting Anthony or Richardson.

I was hoping that they would. And I know there's been a lot of talk so far about, you know, him potentially playing early in the season, maybe even week one, depending on how a training camp in his development goes. My question is, do you think the Colts have enough around him and a good enough offense to kind of support him in his development? Just want to know your guys' thoughts. Thanks.

Appreciate the question. I think that it's a worthwhile question. We spent an entire podcast talking about what you need in place for these young quarterbacks to be in positions to succeed. So what do you think? What do you think about the current Colts support system and whether or not it puts Anthony Richardson in a good enough spot for these early reps to be positive experience? I loved we did our kind of quarterback situation breakdown, like what it was conducive to quarterback succeeding and everything. And what basically came down to was like pass catchers, offense align, play callers.

And you can say run game and defense as well. And I think first and foremost, why I'm optimistic about Anthony Richardson and where he landed with the Colts is starts at the top, Shane Steichen and a play caller, play designer that has proof does not just talk at press conference and how we're going to use them, has proof of how he adapted his play calling

to the skill set of his quarter. That was his sell for the job, by the way. It's the first line in the room. What are you going to do? I'm going to build something around the players. Yep. And it's not bullshit with him. No, it's not.

It's not bullshit. A lot of other guys are going to say that. But then they're going to be like, well, you know, Mike Holmgren did this this way 20 years ago. And I feel pretty good about it. Yeah. That's not what's happening here. And even with Sykin, when he took over play calling for the Eagles in 2021, everyone said it.

It's like, oh, no, it's kind of his show. No, it's his show. you know, we have our ideas and Nick, you know, Siriani has his ideas, but it's really, it's his play calling and everything. That's good because it's not where you're hiring the OC and then they're like, well, he doesn't call the plays. He doesn't, we don't really know who's behind that play design and all that. No, there's sort of kind of like out or publicly said this about him.

And then I would say past catching wise, past catcher wise, I feel like it's a decent group because of just it's enough. It's enough. Pittman and Pierce are, you know, of course I'm optimistic about Pierce and what he can Pittman has shown that he can be a pretty good receiver, but they have real size, too. And I think stylistically, that matches with Richardson. Again, you have some, if people have accuracy concerns with Richardson, I don't as much as other people do, but those are big targets.

That's great. Same with the tight ends, Malawi Cox and Jalani Woods. Big, big targets for him. Hard to miss those big of targets. This was the theory, by the way, behind the Bears drafting Alshon Jeffrey was my dad said, you know, they went in and they go, huh, he, a couple of, likes to spray some balls. Like when he misses, he kind of sprays it. So let's just get the biggest receivers possible. So let's get Brandon Marshall and I'll shout Jeffrey in here. But seriously,

that was the same line of thinking. It works for a year, mostly with Josh McCown. Yeah, in a year, a year after my dad left. So they didn't really get to reap that benefit there. But no, and the run game wise, you know, of course, Jonathan Taylor, but of course, I think the main worry would be offensive line. And, and I think just we talked about this, our most recent show was maybe a little one more injection on the interior offensive line, especially. And I think that's where it really helps a young quarterback because it keeps the pockets clean, lets them work and work on good habits. So I think I feel pretty damn good. I was on a different show. They asked me who I'm, what's the situation that I like the most? And really it came

down to you. I really do like where the Colts are at. I do like where Bryce Young landed with Carolina and their offensive line. I'm more optimistic about the Texans and their situation because I think it's fine and decent as far as past catchers and offense aligned. But really just starts with Stike in and then it goes to the past catchers. But I do want to mention one more thing. that the Colts traded back in the second round with the Falcons. And that's where the Falcons took Matthew Bergeron, who is an offensive guard that I'm pretty high on. So just remember that pick.

If there's an offensive line woes and Terry offensive lows with the Colts this year, just remember that trade, remember that pick right there. But I do like the situation Richardson got dropped in. It makes me pretty optimistic about them. I know the personnel is similar, but I think you could make an argument that you'd expect more from pretty much everyone along that offensive line. Bernard Raymond actually was okay

in the second half of the season. He had some rough games. That first start against Denver is a nightmare type game. And that's the one that sticks with you. And he didn't play well against the Eagles a little bit later in the season. But I think that overall, he was solid as you got down to the back half of the year. So if you can expect growth from him as a third round pick and thrust into action in week five of his rookie year,

which I think is totally reasonable, that makes your left tackle spot a little bit better. Quentin Nelson was banged up last year. the offense didn't play well as a whole. This is an all-pro guy. He should be better than he was last season. Same goes to Ryan Kelly. Ryan Kelly had a down year by his standards last year.

So if you can expect more from the left side period, and Brayton Smith is still a solid player, you'd hope that with what you've invested in that, it's just a blip last season compared to what you might get moving forward. So the offensive line should be better, and I do think they need one more piece on the interior to kind of upgrade that thing. They also have some depth now. You know, they drafted the guy from BYU,

whose name I can never remember in the fourth round is athletic who can potentially be your swing tackle as you get going here. They have some bodies potentially. Pass catchers, I think it all makes sense. You know, Jelani Woods was super, super raw last year as a third round pick. Can you expect more from him this year? Andrew Ogletree, the guys they were really excited about in camp last year until he tore his ACL, can he be somebody that does something for you at tight end this year?

You know, they've got a bunch of those guys. The running game should be really, really good. You know, and that's, honestly, that's one of the reasons I'm most excited about this is that it's hard to be super worried about bad habits when the floor is so high because of what the running game gives you. And I think that's a huge step up from the starting point. It's just like no matter what happens, we're going to have one of the best running games in the league, most likely. Like there's a very good chance. They're a top five rushing offense from day one independent of the offensive line just because of how dynamic that Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, duo is.

Last year, you know what the two most efficient rushing offenses in football were? I don't know. Eagles and the Ravens. One, two, right? It's just one, two. So there it is. If you can have that, I think it's a huge step up. And I think that prevents you from having too many negative experiences or drawbacks. And I think that you drop Josh Downs in as that third piece. And I know it's a lot to expect out of a third round pick for him to be, you know,

starting receiver for you right away. But if that kind of falls into place, I think they have more than enough to at least make the experiences positive. to at least make them constructive the snaps that he's getting early in the season. So I'm not too worried about it, honestly. I know. It is more. And I got asked a question the other day. And I was kind of started thinking about it.

I actually like the Colts Barrett. Oh, God, I talked myself in this last year. But this I feel I truly do because I really like Richardson. But even the other guy, they got in day three, Evan Holt, pass catching running back. It's, they have some nice complimentary pieces. Like you said, it's like a B. And I, I'm fine with that, especially for a rookie quarterback. that's so much better than some of these guys that get taken to the top five or top 10

where they just have to do so much. And I'm excited to see this run game. And having a running quarterback and design runs with the quarterback or just zone read type stuff or power read, however you want to do it, it helps offensive line because they can be wrong and the play will still end up okay. That's a thing that it's room for error. That's what the quarterback's legs do. So yeah, I'm higher on that than maybe I even thought a few weeks ago.

I think just everything we broke down. And, you know, there's a chance that the Colts are picking relatively high in next year's draft. You know, I don't think they're going to be great. I think their defense is a long way to go. Also, expectations help. There's not a lot. Yeah. So I think that does help.

So you look at, you know, this is obviously a year in advance who gives a shit, but just worth mentioning. Right now, in Dane's 2024 mock draft, Colter pick in third, based on preseason Super Bowl odds, okay? There is absolutely a world where. Marvin Harrison Jr. is available with the third pick. Or if they're picking seventh and Brock Burrowers is available in the top 10. Like they probably, because you said, it's a B. They do need one more like A pass catcher somewhere along the way to take this thing to the next level.

But there's a chance they're in a position to do that next year. So I think as long as you're in a B minus for right now, you get to your A's later in the process. So I think that's totally fine. And there's a couple of really good tackles next year too from Penn State, in order to aim. So it's like, yeah, they, no, it can line up very well for the Colts in the short term. All right. Next one here from Matthew Elliott. He says, I'm an English Seahawks fan based in Northern Island. I really love the show. It's become a staple of my week over the last few years. The question is probably more for Nate. Having worked for NFL teams in your experience,

how different have the draft boards been in relation to the consensus board? Also, how different do you believe or understand each team's board to be? I think a lot of players end up getting getting into similar tiers by the end of the day. I do also want to mention, too, is that a lot of these players will end up having five or six eyes on them, a pairs of eyes, as far as evaluators. So even if one scout is lower, like one guy has a fifth round grade on a guy and everyone else has second round grades, it's going to go usually to the consensus. And so even when some, like sometimes you'll say, usually some of these former execs

that are in the media and stuff go, oh, I had a first round grade on a guy and he got drafted into fourth and stuff. Like that can be true, even if the consensus wasn't there. So it's kind of like you can argue it however you want to. But I always think the public consensus board is actually fairly close to how each team is. I really do. It's ballpark at least. It's not outlandish.

And usually when a guy that we have. It's almost insanely accurate. It is. In fact that these are just people like doing these mock drafts and ranking these players and it gets pretty much in the same ballpark all the time. It's kind of crazy how efficient. pre-draft rankings are compared to other things that we do in this business. And I do think that there is some, I wouldn't say echo chamber, but there is some hog and tail.

I'm trying to think of the analogy here, whatever. The tail wags the dog. Tail wags the dog. I kind of here. Thank you. Is that some of the people that are the ones that we all base our rankings off of and they go from there, you know, they talk to people in the league. So you kind of have a little bit of bounce back, you know, echo off each other.

But, you know, people come up with, oh, I'm higher on this guy, I'm lower on this guy. But generally, it's very similar. I also do think is that I always want to remind people when I've been guilty of this. Why is this guy dropping? Why is this guy dropping? Teams have way more access to character stuff than we do. And they have way more access to medical stuff. It's one of those two every single time.

Every single time. And that's where I always want to kind of remind people to is that like, hey, it's, that's probably why that guy dropped. and I'm not going to dig more. Sometimes we hear some things. Sometimes it's only a tip of the iceberg of what we hear. But that's why I just always want to remind people that. But I think that's an important thing to bring up. Yeah.

Because when a guy drops and he gets drafted lower than his expected draft slot, that is typically not indicative of anything. Those guys don't usually provide more long-term value than players selected at their draft slot. That being said, if you severely over-draft a guy compared to where he is on in the consensus board that historically has proven to be bad for teams that make those decisions. So I think that comparing those two and what they tell us about the future is an important distinction.

It's scarier to be the only high team on somebody. It's not scary to be the low team on somebody. I think that's a good way to put it. Like if you're the only team that's like, you bounce with the scouts talking to other scouts, they're at the combine. They're talking about a guy. And you're like, man, I love them. I have first round grade.

And you see all the other scouts kind of go, oh, you know, that's where you get a little worried. It's fine being a little high on guys. Don't get me wrong. But yes, if you are truly, truly, truly reaching on guys, that's why it gets scary. But I will say at the end of the day, it's everything that ends up being kind of public consensus and also teams, ballpark about the same. There are always some question marks, even guys that do drop. I think A.T. Perry is a great example. The guy from Wake Forest that I like. He went to the sixth round this year. And then character stuff started getting leaked out. It's like, ah, there it is. There it is. Okay. There we go. There I was wondering about that one. And that, that's a, that's a second.

kind of how it goes. And that's why you always have to always question, or that's where you have to have some leeway to teams in the information gathering that they get. Next one here, Joe Sayer says, huge fan of the show. I've watched the NFL since I was a teenager, now 38, and the sport has grown massively over here in recent years. I used to wake up in the middle of the night to watch Super Bowls. We didn't have many live games back then. The coverage has grown as has our access. I wondered what the feeling is in the U.S. of regular season games coming over to the UK and now Germany. Is there resentment at games being taken away from local fans? Is there any talk of a potential UK franchise derided?

I'm a football fan, and the EPL has been hinting at taking games abroad for a while. It's always met with anger from fans, the selling out of our game. Yet as an NFL fan, I love being able to go to proper games so I get it. Interested to hear your thoughts. What do you think about this? I think now that we have a 17th game, what's international the hell out of it. I think it's great. I think it's awesome.

I think it's great. I don't care about it at all. And maybe it's, if I had. season tickets to the Bears or whatever, and there was one game that was being taken away, and it was a huge game, maybe, but for the most part, they're not the biggest games on the schedule, they're not the best matchups on the schedule, because those are getting thrust into prime time or 3 p.m. slots anyway, and it's a chance for people who really love the game to be able to access the game. I said this in private many, many times. The mailbags are a perfect

expression of it. A lot of our most thoughtful fans that listen to the show and that talk to me about the show and reach out about the show are our international fans. Because I think that it's the same as a certain subsect of EPL fans was here for a little while. When it's harder to access, it's almost a self-selecting group of people. You have to care more. And so I think that people who've really loved the NFL internationally, they've really had to dedicate themselves to following it. And throwing people, those people a bone and allowing them to be better fans and to have more access to the game, I think that's great. So I have no issue. with it whatsoever. And again, maybe if I was missing out on a home game, I'd feel a little bit

differently. But on a broader level, I'd fully support it. I did too. That's why I'm all for spreading the game. And it's cool that people aren't just going, oh, you wacky Americans. I can't believe you like, oh, no, I get it. I remember talking to Carlos Bokanagra, who's with Atlanta and when that team was starting in Atlanta. And I was talking, I was like, oh, it was a hard for you to watch the NFL? And he goes, no, I got all my teammates into it. Like, that's all we did on Sundays after because they played on Saturday. So Sundays we watched the NFL. They started to love it.

They're in fantasy leagues now. And that's awesome. I think that's so, so cool. And like you said, some of our best questions I've ever gotten. Some of my favorite followers are from Brazil or Germany or Ireland or the UK. And I love that.

I really do. So I'm all for spreading it. I'm just saying too is that having that odd number game, the 17th game doesn't upset the balance of the eight home games, eight away games. I think it's now it's like, let's crank it up. Now we have no more excuse.

is like, oh, they lost a home game three years in a row. It's like, no, it's balance. Eight, eight. And this is the neutral site game that everyone can do. So I think, I'm all for it. I love it. I'm glad more people are loving the game as well. It's easy to take for granted now just because I've done this for a really long time.

I've done it for so long. I've done hundreds and hundreds of podcasts. And sometimes it just feels like it goes out into the ether. And they don't really exist in any real form. Right. So the idea that there is someone in France or someone in Brazil or someone in Denmark who's, you know, waking up with us at 9 a.m. and kind of making their coffee, well, it's midnight over here or whatever and gets to be a part of this and is part of what we're doing. Like, that's very cool to me.

Listen to me, butcher the English language. That it's, if that's, if English is your second language. Make them feel a little bit better about learning. Yeah. Yeah. They're like, oh, I speak better, English better than this guy. But it, you're so true. I can even pot that's positive stuff too. Even this morning, uh, I'm on Twitter because I can't help myself. And I'm talking to somebody from Northern Ireland about Connor Williams, the center for the dolphins. Like if you told me 10 years ago, I'd be having a Twitter discussion about Connor Williams, the center for the dolphins,

like the mid-level center for the dolphins, someone from Northern Ireland, and they're citing pass-blocking metrics towards me. I love that. I really do. It's awesome. And long story short, I think it's awesome.

I'm really glad other people are starting to take to the game. And also not just like, oh, big guy hit hard. It's the nuances of the game, the scheme stuff and everything. and having great ideas as well because of the stuff they can draw on as well. I love the cross-pollination of all of it. Daniel Lacey says, there's often talk of pairing rookie quarterbacks with rookie pass catchers to develop that chemistry early in their careers.

We saw this in this year's draft, with the Panthers taking Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo, the Texans taking Ced Stradin and Tank Dell, and the Colts taking Anthony Richardson and Josh Downs, and the Titans drafting Will Levis and that dude they took in the seventh round. Sorry, the joke was right there. Which of these pairings do you like the best? Or if there are other receivers on these rosters,

such as this essentially being John Metchie's rookie year with Houston, which pass catchers do you see being the most helpful for these rookie quarterbacks? I'll let you take this one. You've studied all the receivers. You know the quarterbacks. Which one are you most excited about? Yeah, there's not like really a rookie pairing. I think mingo down the road will be a really fun one for Bryce Young,

but I think he's going to take some time to be a down-to-down player. I do love his upside. They took him about where I had him graded, second third round grade. I would actually, I think Richardson with his past catchers. I'm excited to see what he does with Pierce, Alex Pierce from last year. I know he's not a rookie, but his second-year guy. I'll call it rookie contract pairings. I think him and his deep ball ability,

intermediate ability will be pretty fun to watch with Richardson, as well with Downs, because I think he'll pepper him underneath. I kind of like Stroud with Mechie. I think that one was going to be pretty interesting because Mechie is going to be kind of like a number two steady eddy type, but I kind of like that. I think that he'll have great chemistry with him being reliable.

That's another pass catcher. I didn't bring him up when I was talking about the other guys they might have. But yeah, anything I like Richardson with Pierce, so I'm cheating on the question. That's fine. And also with doubts. I think that's the pairing I'm most excited for of this grouping. Matt Kreenge says, as a tormented Raiders fan, I was wondering if you objectively looked

at every AFC quarterback situation over the next three years, if the Raiders had the worst current situation. He asked another question that I do want to answer on a different show because I think it's very good. But just very quickly, if we're looking at quarterback situations in the AFC, do you think the Raiders have the worst one over the next three years? When he asked this, I was like, there's no way. But then you actually start looking at the quarterback situations in the AFC.

Everyone else has at least a better plan or a long-term plan, even if it's not better, than the Raiders currently do. Yeah, like the only ones, like, if we're counting year three, then like the Jets, you know, but like, yeah, but those first two years, like they. And maybe the Broncos, you know, but like that's year three, not years one and two. How down you are on the Rust contract? is a huge part of this answer. Because if you think that it's just a disaster,

there's no coming back, then the Broncos might be in a similar situation. But other than that, Josh Allen, whatever has happened with two in Miami, that could go off the rails, but we saw what our offense could be last year. Mac Jones is, I think, you know, it is fine. Jets have Rogers, Lamar, Joe Burrow,

the Watson contract. If we think that, there's no coming back from that. If you're ignoring the last six weeks of last year, then yeah that that's what you have to go with there. Kenny Pickett, I think I'd probably throw in the Patriots bucket where you have this like middling but on a rookie quarterback contract quarterback. It's like, all right, this is a plan. Stroud Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis being drafted by the Titans,

talked about the Broncos. We'll see it, but you know. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and the Raiders. When I read that question, I was like, come on, you're just being negative. Yeah. So it's bottom three. I think any way you shake it. I think any way you shake it, it's bottom three.

And this gets me to a question, we might as well just roll into it because I think it's worth answering now and we'll flip the order here. Okay. How many games did Jimmy Garapolo start at quarterback before we saw him with Kyle Shanahan? Oh.

Oh my God, actually, I don't know. Well, two, was it two? I thought you started half a year. I've maybe misconstruing it. Two? Okay. Wow. Okay.

Two. All, second round trade. All we've seen is Jimmy Garapolo with this guy who makes quarterbacks look really, really good. Yeah. There's the chance that Jimmy Grappel isn't good. There's a very real chance. Okay.

And we saw a Mr. Irrelevant come in and basically put up the same numbers. Like, that's all you need to know. So this brings me to my next. point. My next question. Kyle Gustafson says, there was some talks for the draft about QPee-needy teams punting at the quarterback position and enduring a down year in hopes of landing Cape Williams or Drake May next year. Seeing where the rookie quarterbacks landed, do you see any possible candidates for this season? Outside of an underperforming QB,

Green Bay, Chicago, dare I say Tennessee, I fail to see many vacant spots on rosters bad enough to be in the hunt. What does the tank race look like in the latter half of this season? This was a fun question because it was the first time I've really thought about it. Because Cardinals are one with a bullet. Obviously. Yep. And then after that, it's like, Rams of Stafford gets hurt. Boom.

That's a very good one. Bucks if they get no quarterback play, you know, like, Baker's bad. And then after that, it's like, Falcons of Ritters terrible. Like, that's another one. And then Raiders. Why aren't the Raiders in here?

Because they had Derrick Carr last year who we know what Derrickar is. Derrick is like, whatever. you know there is a chance that jimmy g is way worse than whatever yes even with devonte adams even with you know good pass catchers everything but what's his name jacobobiles jacob mires good lord oh jacobabat dvath adams jacobie mires the offensive line isn't good right there they're jimmy doesn't create and the defense is bad the defense has no players on it not the all world defense he's played with the last three four years yeah but like when we also haven't seen like that's the thing about Kyle Shanan that always has to be talked about with him is that he hides his offensive lines weaknesses.

Yes. Really, really well. He's going to the Raiders with Josh McDaniels who do an at-you-run game and at-you-play-action-style pass game, where those guys have to be good. They have to be technicians. They have to be a stronger unit. So we ever really seen Jimmy G with a weak, weak offensive line or a weekly-schemed offense line either. If I told you the Raiders went five and 12 this year, would you be surprised?

Would you, would be shocked? I wouldn't be shocked at all. I could see that happening. So the teams I had. Do I think it's going to happen? No, but I'm not like, it's not out of the realm of possibilities. It's not like, really? Raiders.

It's like, no, I could totally see them finishing in bottom five teams. Teams that did not draft a quarterback in the first two rounds this year that I had on this list. Raiders, Cardinals, Bucks, Washington. Yeah. Yeah. Who knows what Sam Howell is going to be? There's a chance that they're a bad offense. and then the Rams.

If Stafford gets hurt, they're one Stafford elbow away from potentially being another terrible, terrible football team when you look at the state of their defense. So all of those teams, I think, could be in the running and would be in play to draft a quarterback if it gets there. Yeah, no. That is going to be a fun race for the bottom because there are some prizes at the end of the, at the line. And I know everything could change. Everything can change. I just watch these guys. I watch Caleb Williams and Drake May this week.

And personally, Drake May is my QB1. But Kayla Williams is freaking awesome too. So it's not like where I'm like, oh, what are you guys looking at? So I don't know. It's a pretty fun one too. And there's other guys that can rise. Duke has a quarterback that's interesting. Quinn Ewer is for Texas is interesting.

Like it might be like four guys that are like potential lottery picks. There's other ones. I'm not even just rattling off the top of my head. So it's going to be interesting. It's going to be interesting if there is a race for the bomb. Because watch those Rams. If Stafford gets hurt and that elbow flares up. Woo!

Well, I can't wait to see what they do in the second half of the year if that happened. Aaron Donald's got some hamstring tightness. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, day to day. Day to day. That's turned a week to week. Wow, weird. So it's going to be a really interesting race to the bottom this year, especially with so much in the middle, so many teams in the middle. Last one very quickly. Okay. Brandon Knight is as a Patriots fan, the post-Bradie era feels it can be summed up as frustratingly competent, which got me thinking. For the draft, you had a wonderful conversation with Michael Sean Duggar about the Seahawks and Pete Carroll's always compete philosophy. Looking around, you can see a few different examples of that mentality

at various points of the team building prospects. of the team building process. From the Seahawks who feel like a true playoff contender, the Titans who feel like they're in the early stages of rebuilding, revamping their roster. And teams like the Patriots and Steelers, who feel like they're always somewhere in that between that. My question is, is there any actionable plan

for teams in this mold to move out of the middle of the pack as it does it largely come down to some variation of luck, whether it's luck of a year from hell pushing a team at the top of the draft order or drafting a player who vastly outperforms their draft status, i.e. the basis of the Patriots dynasty. At any year with low expectations, I'm just wondering what the path forward for the Patriots might be.

there are a few different ways to answer this. I think bottoming out for one random season is definitely your way to get the quarterback. So do you eventually find an elite quarterback some way? Do you look into one or are you able to trade for one? Or Brady going to the Bucks is an example of this. Potentially Rogers going to the Jets is an example of this. Where you're in the middle and you somehow, some way, you can land an elite quarterback somewhere along the way. You trade up like the Chiefs did for Patrick Mahomes.

So I think that's one answer. Yep. The other answer, if you're looking for teams that just break through where you win a championship or play for a Super Bowl, you're a middling team otherwise that somehow gets there. The answer over the last decade or so, if you look at all of the teams who have won Super Bowls that did not have elite quarterbacks,

there's essentially one through line for all of them. Their quarterbacks won on a fucking heater in the playoffs. The flacko rod. And that is when you talk to teams that are in this situation, because there are only so many elite quarterbacks, everyone can't build the elite quarterback plan. So if you don't have one, this is what teams are hoping for, is that if you get in the dance,

you can hit one of these heaters and you can end up doing it. The Outwire team here is the 2015 Broncos. It was a weird season. You know, that AFC, the best team was probably the Bengals for most of the year, but then Dalton gets hurt. You know, they beat the Patriots in a very close AFC championship game. legit all-time defense. All-time defense.

All-time defense. So they're fitting through a pinhole in terms of like a keyhole in terms of what you need to do to get there. But the other example. They won at New England or something crazy. It was in Denver. I think it was in Denver. It was there.

Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Oh, no. That's not true. That's not true. It might have been in New England. I was at the NFC championship game that year where the Panthers beat the

shit out of a really good Cardinals team. It was a weird season. Okay. Really weird season. Okay. So here are the four examples of like, all right, if we have a solid team, what do we need to do to beat teams with an elite quarterback. This is what your quarterback has to do.

In 2021, Stafford had a 0.28 EPA per dropback in the playoffs, which is essentially what Mahomes did this year. Okay? In 2017, Foles was at 0.49. It's insane. 4-9 for through three games. There have been three seasons ever where quarterbacks have had more than that over a single season. Okay?

So that's the heater that Nick Foles went on. in 2012 Joe Flacko was at point three seven there are three quarterbacks ever since 20 since 2000 since 2000 that have had more than a point three seven EPA per drop back over the course of a season 2007 town Brady 2011 Aaron Rogers and 2004 Peyton Manning the three of the best quarterback seasons we've ever had real all time stretch yes and they're all MVP's so and then in 2011 and like yeah those are like the the the the greatest years ever. It was like the greatest quarterback seasons of all time. I've just MVP is the greatest seasons of all time. In 2011, Eli Manning was at 0.25 EPA per dropback during the 2011 playoffs. That would have been fourth in the NFL that season behind that Roger season we just talked about, the best Drew Brees season maybe ever, and Brady on a historically good

offense. 0.25 would have been second in the NFL this year right behind Patrick Moms. So the answer is, you need your quarterback to play like an elite quarterback for four games if you get on the dance floor. That is what you're trying to do. With good surroundings. Yes. With, with, with, with, either an awesome surrounding cast on offense or an awesome defense to

help you out as well. Like, even the Stafford run too. Like, they, so like, there's also the schematic advantages, you know, the RPAs with Nick Foles. But with Stafford, the empty stuff. Yes. No one could blitz them. No one could blitz them.

So you just take it. Do you have a sheet code built within that? Yes. A little advantage somewhere, some shape, or form or even golf in the run they made just their, their, their offensive system was all the jet motion stuff was a little outlandish at the time. And now it's common. So yeah, just a little schematic advantage as well. That can create those heaters.

But how many things are we listening off that you need to do to just get to that point? That's why it's like, yeah, get the elite quarterback. But like you said, there's like, what, six on those on the entire planet Earth playing at this time. So yeah, kind of hard. The takeaway is it's very hard. It's hard. It's very hard. It's like the scene from Moneyball.

It's like, how hard is it washed? It's incredibly hard. It's incredibly hard. That's where we are right now. So yeah, I thought it was a great question. I love looking back at those because I was even stunned by how impressive those statistical stretches were for those quarterbacks. But also just real quick, because of one bold point I had on this was that either sometimes you have to bottom out with a good team because of injuries like Chargers did getting Herbert.

Yes. And another good example. And like sometimes that's the luck is by getting unlucky, you end up getting lucky because you bottom out or even like the 40-9ers getting Bosa. I know that's not a quarterback. But that also helps as well. But the point you always brought up. brought up earlier this season or offseason was about what these teams moved that when they hit

kind of a ceiling with their team was oh they moved up from a homes they moved up for dischaun Watson they moved up they moved up for Josh Allen they made these moves for these guys and it being the elite guy so that's something that's always stuck with me it's rarely the shitty team gets the number one pick and then they become a great team burrow of course is an exception and Trevor Lawrence seems to be that as well but usually you have to move up you have to find something, some difference, a line of thinking or some way you create an advantage in some way shape or form. All right.

That's all we got. That's all we got. We are going to be doing these every single week. Again, just want to say thank you to everyone that sent a question in. It means a ton that you would take the time to do that. We will be back on Wednesday. Prospects to Prospects is off for the rest of the off season. We really think the contributions that those guys made throughout the year, throughout the

spring. Dan is obviously a superstar. Sincerely appreciate Andy. taking the time to do it. He's got a million things going on. So very kind of him to hold that down for us for months and months at a time. So appreciate everything those guys did. But we will be your way on Wednesday starting this off season. So we will be back then. No show tomorrow on Tuesday. That will be the case all off season. No Tuesday shows during May, June, July into training camp. It's the only day we're taking off. We will be around four days a week. So please come back and check us out for now. That's all we got. Since you're We'll appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.