The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Mailbag Monday: Travis Kelce's contract value, best teams to not win the Super Bowl, too old to wear a jersey?...and more

Episode Date: July 3, 2023

Robert Mays and Nate Tice sneak in one more mailbag before the holiday. The guys discuss Travis Kelce's contract value, best teams to come up short of winning a Super Bowl, when you're too old to wear... a jersey, and more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Starting point is 00:00:03 This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Join me today. It's my good friend, Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? I have Alice Cooper's schools out for summer song in my head just playing on repeat over and over and over. But I'm doing fantastic.
Starting point is 00:00:31 I do feel like it's the opening of the movie Days of Confused, which is one of my posters behind me. I don't think anyone's noticed that, but that's the party at the Moon Tower poster. If anyone's ever confused, one of my favorite movie. movies. It was on. I have, for whatever reason right now, my cable is tuned to Flicks. So I don't really watch TV, like, for the most part. I watch all the streaming services.
Starting point is 00:00:51 But so every once in a while, just via random channel flipping, I'll land on a random channel. And then when I turn my TV on, it's the only time I watch it before I get it. Yeah, before we want to watch it. And so right now it's on Flicks. And Days and Confused was on when I turned the TV on like two days ago. I was like, well, I have to watch it. It's such a good movie.
Starting point is 00:01:09 And it was right before. they throw the pain on Ben Affleck. It was like right before that moment. So, and then it's the, are they the gas station or a drive-thru when McCona Hay pulls up and tells them, party at the moon tower? It's like a drive-thru, you know, like the old, like a sonic, you know, where you can pull up and go up. Yep, yep, yeah, party at the moon tower. Heard party got busted. Not to worry. Full kegs. Everybody's going to be there. No, I show that movie to my wife. And she's like, okay. You know, it's nice. But it was like, for me, it's one of those movies I watched liked it. Every time I watched it, I like it more and more. And that so much so it's in my top
Starting point is 00:01:41 10 might be a top five movie for me. I'm a link letter sucker man. I mean, even like Apollo 10 and a half that came out a couple years ago, the animated one, I watched it and I was like, this dude just, he's got me. He's got me in the palm of his hand. Just started before sunrise. And I've never seen it. So I, or never seen it? Nope. Oh my God. So we're watching it. We're about, we were halfway through and then we had to put, or about half hour third, we had to put my son to bed last night, but the whole time was like, this is great. This is great.
Starting point is 00:02:11 I know. We were, um, case now we're talking about which movies are set in Greece and we could watch and when we got home if we're like feeling nostalgic for our Greek honeymoon. And before midnight, the last one is set in Greece. But it's about them and like their 40s looking back on all the mistakes they made and just like, and like doubting all their choices. And I was like, I'm not sure this is the best movie to watch right after we get married. It was just like the beginning.
Starting point is 00:02:33 I think we're going to leave that one on the cutting room floor. but the other one that is set in Greece, it's very obvious, is Mamma Mia. So there's a, in Santerini, when you walk right on the edge of like the Caldera, like between the two cities, there's a movie theater, and it's an outdoor movie theater,
Starting point is 00:02:49 just a wall. And they project the movie on there, and they give you headphones, like a silent disco. So you can listen to it in different languages and stuff. And so every night, they play Mamma Mia. So if you look at the schedule,
Starting point is 00:02:59 it just says Mamma Mia every night. And we walk past it multiple times. And each night, it was like right when it was starting. Like, well, here goes Mama Mia. me again. Here we go again. That's a thing. Yeah, here we go again. My, my. My dad is a huge Abba fan. And so he. Wow. I did not see that coming out of nowhere. I mean, the songs are great. He's a very musically varied guy, which I've always appreciated. Like he liked Earth,
Starting point is 00:03:26 when and Fire. He likes a lot of classic rock stuff. You know, I love the Beatles, which everyone does, of course. But like, all over the place with his music, but he is a sucker for disco. And so, So, like, even like with the Bee Gees, I until later my life, didn't realize the early Bejee songs and how like, wow, these guys have beautiful voices and everything. And I love that. And he's like, nah, Saturday Night Fever. That's what I want. Like, he only likes the disco stuff.
Starting point is 00:03:49 So he's pretty happy that like Abba's kind of coming back. Oh, yeah. We play, give me a man after my wedding. Yeah, that's right. Yes. Oh, it's such a good song. And so I saw Mamma Mia the play, the musical here in Vegas when I was like 12 years old. But my dad of all of us was the most excited to see it.
Starting point is 00:04:08 And I have an older sister and a mother, of course. And he was the one that was most excited to see it. My dad loved show tunes. My dad loved show tunes. My dad was like 6-3, like 260. He was a huge man. And when you go in the car, we had a 10 CD changer in his like 2001 white suburban. And the 10 discs in there were like Miss Saigon, Phantom of the Opera, Wicked.
Starting point is 00:04:32 Oh, wow. Like those were all of the CDs. And my dad's thing. My dad loved showtune. So he was just like this massive man in his like football coach outfit. And he's just like throwing on jersey boys in the car, whatever we got in there. That's like my dad with a straight face. People ask what's his favorite song?
Starting point is 00:04:46 He's like, Dancing Queen. And he's like, dead serious. He's not trying to be funny or anything. He's like, no, that's his favorite song. Yeah. It's the I love the CD in the car thing with a, I think my dad had six in there. And it was Neil, maybe it was six. Yeah, but same thing.
Starting point is 00:05:01 But it was Neil Diamond. the Remember the Titans soundtrack. My dad was a big fan of that. The Reservoir Dog soundtrack, my dad was a big fan of that one. That's one of what you have to do. Beatles One was a big one in there. And then I think it was Abba's greatest hits and like Beegee's greatest hits. That was kind of like this, what I remember from my youth and like music driving to like basketball and baseball tournaments of my youth.
Starting point is 00:05:24 I feel okay doing this because this is a mailbag show and this is essentially a mailbag question that we're answering. This is our last Melbag show. As Nate was alluding to with the schools out for summer and the days are confused, this is Nate's last show for a little while as he takes his very well-deserved and delayed paternity leave here for the next month or so. So I will be programming your friendly neighborhood football podcast over the next month or so. We are sorely going to miss you, but we have one more mailbag that we're going to dig through. A lot of fun stuff here. A lot of fun questions. Some easy, breezy, a lot of, but I think good stuff to dig into.
Starting point is 00:05:58 So let's start this with one from Andrew Constantine. who says, I'm in the same stage of life as Robert and Nate. I'm 36. I got married three years ago. I just had my first child three months ago. Does that make me too old to wear a jersey? Is it only acceptable if I attend a game in person? What about if I watch a game at a bar or a friend's house? When is someone too old to wear a jersey?
Starting point is 00:06:18 Thank you for answering my silly fashion question. P.S. The absurdity of the condiment question inspired me to submit this. He also asked an addendum where it was if it's a different type of jersey. So, like, I think this is football jersey specifically. Yes. I think after you stop going to Lollapalooza in 2008, you're no longer allowed to wear a sleeveless basketball jersey in public as an adult man. I have an answer. That's my quasi answer. I was never a jersey guy, but I did for two years in college have a Ricky Rubio Spain jersey that I did wear to festivals. But that was- 2010 was the last year I wore that. So it's right after you got drafted by the wolves. You know, they passed on Steph Curry for him, but we'll not talk about that. Never been a jersey guy.
Starting point is 00:07:00 Overall, I did have a sick Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State jersey in high school, though. And I really, other than that, that's all the jerseys. I think I had a Matt Jones Jaguar's jersey, which is random, right? I know. I mean, that's an incredible piece of memorabilia. I hope you still have that. I think I do somewhere. Oh, my God.
Starting point is 00:07:18 That's incredible. Because I thought he was going to be great. You know, my dad went to the jacks. That's like the ultimate festival gear wearing a Matt Jones jersey for many different reasons. I don't have that years and years. For you guys who don't know, we don't have to dig into it now. for those of you who are maybe a little bit too young, go Google Matt Jones Jaguars. Or Matt Jones, Arkansas highlights.
Starting point is 00:07:34 There's a seven-minute highlight on YouTube. Someone made it in like 2008, too. It's like old OG YouTube. And it's playing song two by Blur, you know, classic. You know, so it's one of the most fun college highlights who ever watches Matt Jones. NFL highlights, we won't talk about. I don't think he created a yard after catching his entire NFL career. But, yeah, but that was the only Jersey is ever.
Starting point is 00:07:57 Also, that's other stuff going on. Yeah. Others, yeah, yeah, a few of the things going on. You like to have fun. But yeah, that's about it. So I'm, I'm not the best person to ask for this. But if I did have like an answer about like when to wear a jersey, I think a jersey, especially in football, is a special big game type of attire. If you're older, I think it's a, hey, we're at a holiday party.
Starting point is 00:08:17 It's a Christmas game. Okay, got to wear a jersey. Or it's a playoff game. That's how, or if you have a lucky jersey for a big game, you know, winning the division, that's kind of where I'm at. I have a staunch, one piece of merch only. attire when I like if I'm watching the Mariners in the playoffs it's either a shirt or a hat. Yeah, you can't do both. It's not both.
Starting point is 00:08:35 Can't do both. Can't do both. I'm most staunch believe. But other than that, I'm not maybe not the best person to ask for jerseys, but I do think it's worth, you could still wear them in special occasions, especially if you have a lucky one. That would be my like final answer. So this is my hard and fast rule with this. I've aged out of jerseys. I no longer wear them.
Starting point is 00:08:52 I think partially just because I cover the NFL, it's like weird to be that tribal in my fandom. I'm like, I still root for the bears, but there's, like, lines that I feel like I shouldn't cross, you know? So I have stopped wearing them a while ago. But I do feel like if you still wear them, if you were an adult man who wears a jersey, I think the jersey has to be a player who is older than you. Yeah. Or was older than you, like, when you purchased it. So my, this is a good example.
Starting point is 00:09:18 My buddy, who I go to Cubs games with every once in a while, he has a Corey Patterson Cubs jersey, which is incredible. Perfect. Right? So because Cory Patterson played when we were kids. Yes. So I think that throwback jerseys are acceptable. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:30 So I have a Tommy Harris jersey. Yep. You know, I have a Julius Pepper's Bears jersey. I have a Singletary Bears jersey. I have a Walter Payton Bears jersey. All guys that were older than me or played in a different era. I think if you're 36 years old and you're buying, there's that stand-up joke that I can't remember who said it where it's, you're wearing a young boy's work shirt.
Starting point is 00:09:50 Yeah. I do not support wearing the young boys work shirt. Like if you're going to wear a jersey, it has to be somebody, a throwbacker a shirt. back jersey or some of you watch when you were a kid. You can't buy a new jersey at 36 for a 21-year-old boy. I like that. I like that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:04 What do you have to say? 21-year-old boy? It's because it's a young boy's work shirt. That's what it is. Like if you're a Bears fan and you're 36, you can't be buying a Fields jersey. Like, you know, no. No. No.
Starting point is 00:10:14 But I think Earlacker, fine. You know, totally fine. Encouraged. To go to the game in the Earlacker jersey. And I, the weirder, the better. Like, the Cory Patterson one is perfect. My buddy is going to hold on to that thing for all times. Like, if you have like an RW.
Starting point is 00:10:27 McCorders Bears jersey, you wear the shit out of that thing. Like never, ever stop wearing that thing. That's such a good one. R. W. Of course, I know for the Vikings, it'd be like, oh, man, like if somebody had a Jake Klein saucer. Klein saucer.
Starting point is 00:10:41 Klein saucers. I was just like Jake Reed. Klein saucers are great. Even cold pepper now because of where we're at in this day and age, coal pepper would be a great one now. Or like Kevin Williams or something like that. Yeah. That's my early fandom.
Starting point is 00:10:52 Yeah, but I never owned a Vikings jersey. I do have a friend named Sam. And I have to bring this up because he's, just kind of has this kind of luck in life. Every jersey he bought, that player ended up getting cut, traded, or suspended. That's why you got to go old players. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:06 So he went like, I think in high school, he went Chris Hovan, done. Then the next one, he had another one that God. And then the third one he got suspended. The fourth one was he took his Hovan jersey and put Erasmus James on the back of it because it was still number 99 because that's what he resorted to by the time he got to Jersey four. He's like, I can't do this anymore, especially with those early Vikings teams. So, um, I like this.
Starting point is 00:11:27 This question was great, though, because it made me think about it. I was like, man, I don't even know what my rules are for jerseys because I don't wear him. I had to think about it a bit. I've definitely thought about this. So that was locked and loaded for me. I had no hesitation. All right.
Starting point is 00:11:38 Next one. Chris Weering says, love the show, appreciate all the content you guys provide us NFL junkies. I'm a lifelong chiefs fan and as big of a Chris Jones fan as you'll find. I vehemently disagreed with people arguing to trade Jones instead of paying him in 2020. But I'm less certain this time around. He'll be 29 at the start of the season. and could justifiably ask for $30 million a year, in my opinion.
Starting point is 00:12:00 From an asset standpoint, I understand it may be best to trade him and recoup draft picks or cheaper players, a la Tai Rekill. But I see Jones is a pillar of the chief's culture in recent success, and he consistently takes over games in the biggest moments. What would you do if you were Brett Veach? What value and length of extension would you feel comfortable handing Jones? What type of return would you want if you traded him? We've really talked about this at all.
Starting point is 00:12:21 That's why I think it's a good question, because it's just sitting there. Yeah, I don't really think he should be a trade candidate where the chiefs are. right now. There was some, there was some, like, noise about that. There were rumblings about that. Yeah, I looked at a three-year deal, and I think that would make sense, especially where the talent is on their roster. They have so many guys on young rookie contracts that are, you know, tangible players that I think now you can make a three-year, like, Aaron Donald got a three-year, $95 million extension. That was basically all guaranteed. And Chris Jones will be a couple years younger. He is not, you know, he's 90% of Aaron Donald, which is still saying something. Aaron Donald's Aaron Donald, but he's still the ace of your defense. And that's why I think it's not tradable. I think Tyreek Hill is way more tangible to be tradable because you have Travis Kelsey,
Starting point is 00:13:04 Amahomes, and offensive line and Andy Reid. Chris Jones leaves, it's like, whew, uh, that's a big gap that you'd be trying to refill and hopefully, and never probably find a player of that caliber. It's very rare. He's a perennial all pro. He barely gets hurt. He's missed eight games and seven seasons. Like that, that's worth paying. So I think as the ace of your defense, I think it's a three year, 90-ish million-ish contract. That's how I look at it, where it's more a little bit more front-loaded because of the young contracts that will end up having to be paid, but they're on a rookie deal right now. That's how I looked at it.
Starting point is 00:13:36 Yeah, I think three years is exactly what I was thinking about. Three years, 83 to 87 million. Yeah. And $61 million guaranteed. That gives you the second most guarantee. So if you're looking at the guaranteed money handed out to Jeffrey Simmons, Geron Payne, Dexter Lawrence, all the, those guys are at 60 million about.
Starting point is 00:13:56 So I would take it right above there and I would put the AIV right behind Aaron Donald. And the reason I would pay him and the reason I think this is different than the Tyreek Hill situation is that there's no Patrick Mahomes on defense. He's the Patrick Mahomes of their defense. Exactly. So the window that you, and I know the window exists for as long as Mahomes is alive. But having a, he was my defense player of the year. Like I think he's one of the best defense players in the league. Right up there near the top.
Starting point is 00:14:21 He's third for me. So the top three in any way. he is a and we what do we talk about during the what do you need to win the super bowl show a week ago you need that guy you need that guy who can take over games for you defensively you don't need 10 of them on defense to win the super bowl but you need a couple and he is that guy for them in the front seven even after they spent some resources carloftis going to get a menahoo whatever yeah this little window that you have he's a huge reason that it's propped open so i think you just ride with him because the tyree kill trade is a bet on patrick mahomes and and andy reed That bet doesn't make as much sense when it's Steve Spagnolo and Trent McDuffey and some of the other guys that you have on defense. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think he's a necessary component of the current makeup of their team.
Starting point is 00:15:06 And even if it's a little bit expensive, he's not 32. No. If it's a three-year deal, you're getting 29, 30, 31? Perfect. Yeah. It's fine with me. I'm willing to ride it. And it's an interior position.
Starting point is 00:15:16 They age a little bit better because they don't require so much on the outside. And also, like you talk about, I love the. that episode we did where we were just talking about the breakdown of the Super Bowl rosters because you brought up the pressure thing where a guy has to get hot and just like a quarterback has to get hot. It's easier when it's the star that can get hot. Totally. That's it.
Starting point is 00:15:36 So it's like what we're making the bet. It's like it can come from anywhere. Don't get me wrong. But it's easiest when you have the star, either at quarterback and at pass rusher. And I would not move away if you have both of those guys, especially when he really is in the primus career and he doesn't miss much time at all. He misses a game of season on average, basically. Yeah, let's say he was on a downturn.
Starting point is 00:15:57 Let's say the decline was starting and the curve had switched directions. You're 32. Yeah, not 29. But even age agnostic, just production-wise. In my opinion, you might have had his best season last year all the way through the playoffs. So I just think that you have to consider that. Okay, and remember, what was the number we talked about where it's pressures per game in the playoffs is the guy that you need? Three playoff games for the Chiefs last year.
Starting point is 00:16:21 how many pressures do you think Chris Jones had? 17. 20. Yeah. So blew it out. We're good. We're good. If that kind of guy playing that type of way at the end of the season when you need him to,
Starting point is 00:16:33 I think you have to hang out to that part. Absolutely. All right. Bella, let's get to our first voicemail here. Hey, Robert. Hey, Nate. The name's John Collinan from Canada. Love the show.
Starting point is 00:16:44 My question has to do with a bit more of a historical kind of dilemma. I'm a bit younger than you guys. I was born in 1999. Me and my friends are all about the same age, but we obviously love football. And I find myself getting into a lot of arguments with them a lot about certain historical players. To me, Walter Payton is the pinnacle of, you know, football greatness.
Starting point is 00:17:08 And obviously, I'm a bear's fan, so whenever I bring this topic up, I get a lot of eye rolls amongst the boys. But I kind of just wanted to know, you know, what are your thoughts on their kind of, counter argument. They seem to think that athletes in the NFL during the 80s and the 70s were of lesser quality than the athletes in today's game. I just wanted to know your guys' thoughts on that argument. Thanks. Love the show. Bye. What are your thoughts on this? Because I have some.
Starting point is 00:17:37 Okay. If we're talking to offense alignment, I would say they're inferior quality in the 70s and 80s because they're so much smaller. But some of it's different body types. Different body types. Yeah. But if you look at other positions, especially running back, these guys are built the same and just as athletic. I mean, if you look at Peyton, Eric Dickerson, Earl Campbell, Bo Jackson, I mean, the top running backs for all-time athletes. They just don't have the technique and skill, or I'm sorry, the coaching and the skill and all the training that the guy's modern NFL do.
Starting point is 00:18:06 But trust me, I'm a big advocate of more modern sports is the best sports, you know, as far as athletes and everything going on, especially in sports like the NBA. But it's like some of these guys, once you hit a certain type, like if you look at their body types. You've watched the old videos of these guys. It's kind of an any error type of guy. And I think Walter Payton is one of those. So I...
Starting point is 00:18:26 Much Paine weighed 200 pounds. Yeah. He was a 510, 200 pound running back with 1970s technology at his disposal. Right. You don't think Walter Payton could be 510, 215, 220 with modern techniques. And not going to a 1-A school, HBCU. You know, like, yeah. He's, he's, during lockdown, I watched a lot of old NFL on YouTube.
Starting point is 00:18:46 And I have a new appreciation for Walter Payton. He was insane. He's insane. He's easily the best player on the field at all time. So you watch it, you're like, look at that guy. Your eyes can't come off of him. He's amazing. Go back and I would challenge your friends to go back and watch
Starting point is 00:19:00 some Walter Payton highlights. There are backs who won with power, who won with speed, who won with shiftingness. They were majored in one of those traits to be great. Walter Payton was all of those things. He's perfect. Walter Payton could beat you to the corner easily if you gave him any sliver
Starting point is 00:19:17 of daylight. He would run, the fuck over. He was so incredibly powerful. You hear Jim Brown talk about him, and that's what really stuck out was the toughness and how he ran and how he would just absolutely, just he refused to go down.
Starting point is 00:19:30 I mean, he just refused to slow down ever. The power and the will that he ran with, plus what he could do, making guys missing the open field was absolutely ridiculous. And this thought that he was the best player on the field at all the times, I think is absolutely right.
Starting point is 00:19:45 Walter Payton was on two all decade teams. 70s and 80s. Okay. The second to last, Walter Payton was the all-time leading rusher in the history of the NFL before Emmett Smith, who played 17 years
Starting point is 00:19:57 compared to Walter Payton's 13 ended up breaking that record. It's not like Walter Payton hung on for five more years than you should have. Walter Payton was a second team all pro his second to last season in the NFL. And the other thing I,
Starting point is 00:20:08 go watch Walter Payton's highlights throwing a football. Yeah. He's one of the best athletes to ever play professional football. He on the run could throw the ball 55, 60 yards. He threw eight touchdowns in his career.
Starting point is 00:20:21 And if you go back and watch some of those, these aren't like Ledanyan Tomlinson, 20-yard little lofted balls in the red zone. He's literally throwing the ball 50 yards on a fly on the move to Willie Galt down the sideline. It's crazy. That's insane. And he can catch.
Starting point is 00:20:35 I mean, he has 50 catches in a season in like the 80s. In the 80s. When I was watching those games, I want to say they were playing the Eagles and when I was watching. And he had a screen or a swing pass and he just catches it one-handed without even looking at the ball. And it's like the only other person
Starting point is 00:20:50 I've seen do that in the game is Randy Moss. And this is a running back doing it in the 80s. And he was a blocker. Like that's what everyone talks about. How I described him when I just had my little one-liner of my notes was sweetness makes sense
Starting point is 00:21:04 because he was just so graceful, but he was also so tough. It's a perfect combination. He is the embodiment of what football should be. Yep. Where's that great? It's the grace and the beauty combined with just this physicality that is completely necessary to survive.
Starting point is 00:21:20 And intelligence because of how smart of a player he was. No, he's a complete football player. Like, I kind of did like a little mini list of like, where would I stack him? Like if I did a top 10. Top five, top six. Like, and I can't. And that's like, I might even have him higher if I like really thought about it. But he is, like you said, challenge your friends to go watch those clips because it's,
Starting point is 00:21:38 it stands out where you're like, that's just a modern athlete. And that's in the late late 80s and late 70s playing on AstroTurf. and Soldier Field and all those terrible fields in the 80s. It's just fascinating. All those old runningbacks are so much fun to watch because you, I mean, Eric Dickerson's like 230. Earl Campbell's like 240, 511, 240. Like Jerry Rice is 6-2-200.
Starting point is 00:21:59 You know, like these guys are built just like how guys are now. It's just that, you know, it was just a different type of game at the time. But they're still just fantastic athletes and amazing players that absolutely hold up. And I assume most people who think about Alter Peyton think about Walter Payton in the 80s because the Bears in the 80s were obviously very good. The 85 Bears are one of the greatest teams of all the time. The Bears in the 70s and Walter Payton got drafted to go to Chicago were horrendous. Terrible.
Starting point is 00:22:21 They were one of the worst franchises in the NFL for like his first six years in the NFL. And this guy was putting up 1,500 yards, a season, five yards of carry behind some truly despicable offenses. And that's important to remember. And then when they got good, he maintained that production. He never fell off until the last year of his career, ever. So it's, yeah. No, so what we're saying is, you're right.
Starting point is 00:22:42 you're on the right side of this argument with your buddies because I'm telling you I am a guy that is a huge believer it's like anything before 1984 whatever in sports but it's like with some of these guys it's like no any era these guys are all timers and when you watch them you can see why they were alt timers Walter Payton really had 12 seasons before the last year where he completely fell off. He was the first or second team all pro seven times in those 12 seasons. If you want to list them off, and this is another part of his question, like all-time football players, where does Walter Payton rank? There is a short list that probably involves in some order like Lawrence Taylor, Jerry Rice, Jim Brown, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, and Walter Payton is like right in that conversation with like truly the greatest players that have ever played the game.
Starting point is 00:23:25 So you are correct and your friends are wrong. Yes, he's top 10. No matter how you shake it, he's top 10. And it's really not much of an argument. Let's get to the next one. Hey, guys. I understand the frustration if you're a Bill's fan based on the way the last couple of years have gone. I said it in the moment.
Starting point is 00:24:31 I was there in that divisional game when they lost to the Chiefs. And even sitting there that night, there's something heartbreaking about knowing that might be your best shot. And that's how the NFL goes. And we're going to answer a question about that later. You know, that's how it happens in this league. There's no guarantee that you'll be back. But I still think that guys that consistently win every single year are incredibly hard to find. You know how hard it is to win 10, 11 games a year in the NFL for five years?
Starting point is 00:25:00 It's not luck. Like 10 years like some of these guys have done. It's not luck. There's something to it. I mean, I just, how I look at this is so much of this is based on situation as far as like what the quarterback hot seat is. And that's why you don't brought a couple of guys in this question. But really it comes down to the Supreme Court ruling on obscenity. You know, I know it when I see it.
Starting point is 00:25:21 Like you watched the Cardinals last year and you're like, oh, eh. You watched the Panthers last year. You're like, yeah, this ain't working. But I don't know. They went, what, 13 and 3 last year? We're good on both sides of the ball. And they played hard. They played smart.
Starting point is 00:25:36 I don't know. He did use kind of the first card that a head coach maybe under a little bit of fire can play. or can do, which is I'm going to fire my defense coordinator and I'm going to call place, which is the first card that you can see. But I think the extension is well deserved. Also, it's like he does not deserve to get shot inheimered, like, you know, going, you know, 13, 3, 14, 2 and getting fired. I just think that this team was so bad when he took over.
Starting point is 00:26:01 And a lot of the culture is on how he runs the team. It starts at the top. That's not by accident. And they have Josh Allen. He seems to have a great rapport with their star quarterback. I don't know. I just don't see there should be any smoke or flames there because I just don't. just think he's done such a great job.
Starting point is 00:26:15 Yeah, and I think that the McCarthy thing in Dallas is a good thing to bring up. We answered the Mike McCarthy question last time, but the bills have played well in the playoffs. It's not like they won a game last year. Yeah, they ran into that Chiefs team and just got unlucky two years ago. I don't think that they've hit a wall, like a really definitive wall in the way that Dallas seems to. And I also think, like you just mentioned, it's important to think about what these teams look like before these guys got there. you know, Mike McCarthy, that was one of the most talented rosters in the league. Like, that was a ready-made team that he was taking over.
Starting point is 00:26:47 Jason Garrett was also just the wrong person to be leading it. I think that with Sean McDermott and the role he has played in Buffalo, it was just a different sort of conversation. Like, look at what the Steelers have. Look at what the Ravens have and how beneficial it is to kind of ride the wave with some of these lulls because you have a guy that you know is the right person in charge. You know, those seven and nine seasons with the Saints. It kind of seemed like they were hitting the wall.
Starting point is 00:27:15 And in actuality, like, no, like you kind of ride these down moments. And there hasn't even been a down moment in Buffalo. So I think that we are too quick to give up on a lot of these coaches who are consistently putting you in positions to win. Well, that's what last year I had a, I think it was a Thanksgiving game against the lines for the bills. And I just saw a lot of Bill's fans on Twitter just not talking about even McDermott, but talking about Dorsey. Ken Dorsey, Offensive Coordinator. And I kind of surprised me. I was like, you know, statistically he's doing way better than what the offenses were doing in the past.
Starting point is 00:27:47 And it's just that's what it is. It's sometimes you're caught in the moments and caught in that kind of like, oh, oh, this isn't working. This isn't working. And it's easy to do it. I get it. That's how sports is. And but it's also got to remember how the downside could be. I'm glad you brought up the Steelers because, I mean, that's the two most, they have the most important spot, which is the quarterback.
Starting point is 00:28:04 And then it seems like they have a good, solid, organized head coach. It's two of the biggest check marks you can have. I would not revamp it because I just don't see a need to because I just think what's going on right now is working. Yeah. I mean, Shanahan's same kind of deal. I flew her, same kind of deal. Like these guys should have a lot of chances after this season to show you what they can
Starting point is 00:28:25 do based on what they're going to be fine. They're trying to fire Kyle Shanahan two years ago. And it's like, good luck, guys. Oh, yeah. Just a couple of conference championship games with insert quarterback name here. Well, we're going to get to that here with our next question. Exactly. All right, let this one rip.
Starting point is 00:28:40 Hey, guys. This is Eric from L.A. Duke fan. My question is, have we begun to marginalize the Shanahan quarterback? If a quarterback puts up, let's say, Matt Ryan MVP numbers, but is done in the Shanahan system, a wild example would be Brock Purdy. If Brock Purdy puts up, you know,
Starting point is 00:29:00 Matt Ryan MVP numbers, would he get MVP discussion from you guys, or would it be something along the lines of, while he has the players and he's ever the case. And if that's the case, have we reduced the MVP trophy, which is already kind of quarterback-driven, to simply which quarterback has the best numbers of the top six or seven most gifted quarterbacks we have?
Starting point is 00:29:24 You know, I love the show and can't wait for you guys. It's a reasonable question. I would implore people to go back and look at the numbers that Matt Ryan put up in 2016. That's exactly what I was going to say. Before we just willy-nilly think about Brock Purdy putting up those numbers. Matt Ryan averaged 9.3 yards per attempt in 2016. Yeah, they were insane.
Starting point is 00:29:47 If you average eight, you had a really, really good season. 9.3, 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt that year. It's one of the best offenses we've ever seen. Ever. And that's the comedy. And it's hard to parse this, right? It's very difficult. But it's almost like what Aaron Rogers was doing over the last couple of years,
Starting point is 00:30:05 where it's like, okay, the system is doing a good amount of lifting, and he's putting him in the right position. But when your efficiency numbers are astronomical, it becomes a different sort of conversation. Then there's an understanding of, okay, this is what the normal ceiling is for insert quarterback here with this offense. I am watching a quarterback lift that ceiling off of the system itself and bring it to a different level.
Starting point is 00:30:28 I think that's exactly it. If that were to happen, if Brock Purdy were a quarterback that showed he could do that, It showed in the numbers. It showed in the eye test all that. Then absolutely I'd start having that conversation. I just don't know if he is. And another part of this is that just let's step back and watch the football games and just use like a little bit of common sense. Like what is actually happening?
Starting point is 00:30:52 What is the quarterback doing in the overall recipe of what the offense looks like? And I think that's why it's important to look at last year's MVP conversation between what Mahomes was doing and what some of the other quarterbacks in the league were doing. doing and just saying it's not just what the stats say it's not just what the EPA number say like what is actually happening like let's try to digest what is actually happening and try to separate this stuff as much as we can because that's also a huge part of this yes it's really funny i basically three bullet points on this is literally the same points uh matt i said he puts up mat ryan mvip like numbers said hell yeah one of the most efficient seasons we've ever seen like ever from any quarterback ever like it's like paint manning seasons some home season
Starting point is 00:31:34 and some Brady seasons, and there's 2016 Matt Ryan, and it felt real. And that's another thing is a lot of these guys, the Jimmy Gs, the world, even Brock Purdy that came in Mullen, all these guys in the 49er stint in this offense, they're playing well, but they're still at the seventh best quarterback, eighth best quarterback, if you look at the metrics. It's not number one, number two, number three, number four. And that's where your last point you make was the last point I was going to make it, is when you watch all these teams, and I get it, me and you watch the whole national, scene and we watch a lot of games and some people consume just their team.
Starting point is 00:32:08 And so the exposure to maybe what else is, and maybe national TV games. I'm not making fun of it. I get it. That's just how people consume the game. But when you watch how much influence each quarterback has on their offense, you can feel it and can see it and go like, well, that guy's carrying it. And that guy's like, well, he's throwing it and the guy's taking it to the house every single time.
Starting point is 00:32:24 Or, wow, they're running it for 10 yards of pop and then he throws a play action and it's wide open. You kind of get the feel of like who really has the influence on the game. And so just like you're saying, I agree. That's what it is. You kind of, you have to see some like outlandish stats. And then you watch the games and go, wow, he's just making play after play and throw after throw, as opposed to where it feels like he's getting a little, getting hit a lot of easy buttons.
Starting point is 00:32:46 I can understand the frustration. Oh, yeah. Only a certain level of guy. Only a certain subsects of quarterbacks come in the MVP. But it's the most valuable player award. It's not, did this guy play well this season? Who is the most valuable player in the week? inherently, the most valuable player in the league is probably going to be one of these five
Starting point is 00:33:05 or six quarterbacks who are they outlandishly talented guys. They're more valuable because they're outlandishly talented. I'd like to read off the list of guys who have won the MVP award in the last like 10 years. Okay. Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rogers, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Aaron Rogers, Patrick, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, which is, that'll never happen again, pro seattle, Aaron Rogers, Tom Brady, Peyton, Manning, Tom Brady, and then we get into more running backs in 2006. It's the best players.
Starting point is 00:33:32 It is. Like the best players are inherently the most valuable players. I think that is going to consistently happen. And that's okay. The best example I would say recently where the numbers were really, really good and the team success was really, really good. But by trying to divorce what the quarterback is doing from what the offense is doing, you can kind of get an understanding of what the actual input is. And that's Jared Goff in 2018. Yeah. In 2018, the Rams went 13 and 3. Jared Gough threw for about 4,700 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
Starting point is 00:34:05 He did not get one MVP vote. There was no consideration of, you think Jared Gough might be the MVP? Part of the reason is that was the Holmes 50 touchdown years. But even in another year, like, Drew Breeze got MVP votes that season. And Drew Breeze's numbers that year weren't that far off from what golf is doing. I think Breeze got five first team all pro votes that season. Okay. So I just think that there's a way to.
Starting point is 00:34:28 do this. Like there is a way to add some critical thinking to it, even if it becomes a little bit frustrating that only four or five guys can win the MVP. I think in reality, four or five guys probably should be the ones in contention to win the MVP every single year. We can't have 20 guys in the elite category. It's three, four, five, six. It has to be like that. Like, that's just, just the numbers game. And all the points you're laying out is exactly it. It's like, it has to be a special award for special seasons for special players. And sometimes situation helps with that, but they usually have to have a baseline for it. And that's kind of where it is. All right. Next question here. Chris DeZera says, hey, guys, love the show. Just made my life listen to the condiments milbag answer.
Starting point is 00:35:08 What a good question, man. Poor woman. So I was wondering if you guys could talk about Travis Kelsey's value a little bit. I genuinely expected him to come up in the most valuable contracts conversation. He's a little unique, but if I remember right, Aaron Donald got a name drop in there. Kelsey was far and away the primary passing game option in an elite and Super Bowl winning offense last year. How valuable is Kelsey's deal for the chiefs from a roster building standpoint? Has the way his impact as a player is understood changed given the chief success after the Tyree kill trade? How does Mahomes impact the way Kelsey is perceived? And do you think the tight end market corrects in the near future after the wide receiver market exploded a couple off seasons
Starting point is 00:35:41 ago? This is a great question because we didn't bring up tight ends at all in that show. And as I sit here and think about it, there's probably an argument to be made in the same way we were talking about the non-Aaron Donald, non-Christ Jones defensive tackle category, that the Travis Kelsey, or like right in that line, like elite pass-catching tight end on a second contract, might be more valuable than an elite wide receiver
Starting point is 00:36:08 on a second contract because of the gap in what those guys are making. He's making his similar cap hit right now to Hunter Renfro this year. Yeah? And Cortland Sutton. Travis Kelsey's what, a top four pass catcher? If you, like, yeah, top three, top four, five. If we're tiering it, he is, he's on the, like, the top tier or like right at the top of the second tier.
Starting point is 00:36:32 Yep. S tier or top of the eight tier. Yeah, that's what he is. And yeah, no, this is a great point because that is super valuable. It's half. And I know he got his extension a couple of years ago. But even beyond that, like guys getting tight ends extensions now aren't getting that sort of money. But we've talked about this too.
Starting point is 00:36:47 Like we've hinted at just talking about even a guy like, I'll just throw a name out of there, like, don't show. but a guy that can be an auxiliary target, like number two or number three in your passing attack, and you're only paying them 8 mil, 9 mil, 10 mil. That is, there's a nice little money ball there. It's very real. It's very real. And I think that's the T.J. Hawkinson trade, I think is a really good example of that where you can just get a guy for, you know, it's a decent draft capital. You know, I think in the end, it's like the equivalent of like a second or third round pick
Starting point is 00:37:15 when you look at all the pick swaps and things like that. But think about what other guys are going for it, other positions and what you're having to pay them. And I assume the Vikings are going to try to extend T.J. Hawkinson. And what are you going to have to pay T.J. Hawkinson. Jacobi. Michael, I don't think T.J. Hawkinson is going to be making more than that, right? And if he does, maybe 12.
Starting point is 00:37:35 Yes. And that's still near the top of the market. I guess David & Joku is making 13.7. But even that, right, compared to what the wide receiver market looks like, I think there is value to be had there. So let's say, Hopkins makes 13. 17. Yes. It's $5 million cheaper.
Starting point is 00:37:51 So I think if you can find that elite pass catching tight end based on what the tight end market currently looks like, yes, there's definitely value there. And we probably should have mentioned it. Yeah. No, it's great. I think definitely, but I mean, there's what three of those guys right now? You know, and that's another thing too. It's like, yeah, if you can find one of these guys. But we've talked about how hard it is to get a tight end.
Starting point is 00:38:12 It's a hard position to scout. It's a hard position to develop. So, but when you do hit, hold on to them. Like, because it's like, you can't find. these guys just on the street. You can maybe trade like the Vikings did, but like you said, they had to give a little bit of draft capital. But no,
Starting point is 00:38:24 I think like, what if Kyle Pitts becomes what we think he could be or what he was his rookie. That's going to be a fascinating conversation. That harkens back to what the Jimmy Graham discussion was like. Right. He was getting his second contract. Right. Where Jimmy Graham's,
Starting point is 00:38:36 Jimmy Graham and his agent is sitting there being like, this is bullshit. Yeah. There's no way that I'm a tight end based on what guys are currently making. And I think Travis Kelsey has as good or better of an argument. Yeah. He's barely in line anymore. And when he does, he's like, he's the king of the, oh, I just missed my block, which
Starting point is 00:38:56 always cracks me up when he pulls. He's like, oh, the guy went wide. I couldn't get to him. It's like, whatever. You catch 100 balls and 10 touchdowns. You can do whatever you want, Travis. And he's also a great golfer, apparently. I watched the match last night.
Starting point is 00:39:07 Oh, my God. Incredible fit, by the way. Do you like that? Oh, my God. The pants were, I didn't know. Was that Nike? I don't know. I love, yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:15 Yeah. No hat, too, in Vegas. Vegas summer and wearing no hat. That's some balls right there. But my Irish skin couldn't take that. But I think exactly it. If you go one of these elite guys, one of the true, true elite guys. And I'd say Hawkinson is kind of on the bottom of that tier of tight end.
Starting point is 00:39:34 It's like, yeah, I think that there's absolutely surplus. I try to avoid using that word, but there is to have. And I mean, and also with just with Kelsey, Kelsey was good anyways, but with Mahomes, they got that kind of Stockton-Malone pick and roll thing going right now, which is just. More than the sum of their part. Yeah, they're both exceptional players, but then they give each other a booster effect, which makes them just past 100 rating. They're ridiculous together. So it's a very special pairing, but two very special players.
Starting point is 00:39:58 Here we go. This is a remember-septics question. Justin Woodley says, hey, Robert, Nate, loved your podcast and how many stars it takes to win the Super Bowl. But it really got me thinking. You guys talked about how loaded the 2022 Eagles were. But what are some other teams that are the best teams that didn't win the Super Bowl? Look forward to hearing your answer. are we doing just the new this modern CBAs or we can we go whatever you want you never
Starting point is 00:40:19 whatever you want first one is 1998 Vikings that's the first one that comes in my mind 15-1 get it out the way uh don't want to talk about that I was my childhood ended very quickly because I was I was really blessed to be cheering for like 90s Vikings 90s Mariners 90s sonics times were great then A-Rod left Griffey left Randy Johnson left 2001 Mariners were great and then the Vikings kind of just did the Viking stuff but anyway doesn't one mariners. in other sports is another very good one. Yeah, that's the last time they hosted an All-Star game. They're doing it again this year.
Starting point is 00:40:50 Not as good as that team, though. 2007 Pats, of course, 2018 Rams, which we talked about. But then I started looking at the other teams in the new CBA. 2014 Ciox was the one that came to my mind. I got a other team that year. The 2014 Packers were also loaded. That offense was incredible.
Starting point is 00:41:06 And they gave that Seahawks team all they could stand. You could also throw the 2012 Seahawks were also fantastic. Also another good team. Yes. And they did not win the Super Bowl. Yes. They ran into the Falcons that year, right? That was that crazy Falcons playoff game, right?
Starting point is 00:41:20 Yep, I actually didn't watch that game because I was traveling to another playoff game. So it's like a weird blind spot in my football watching history as it didn't watch the Seahawks Falcons game that year. That was like there's a stretch 2012, 2012, 2013, any Sunday playoff games because I was a GA at Pitt. So it was like I was always working out those days. They didn't get to watch those playoff games. Same thing. But even 2006 Chargers was another team that came to mind. Speaking of Schottenheimer, they went 14 and 2 that year.
Starting point is 00:41:46 Five first team all pros, six total, 11 pro bowlers. And then they lost in the first, well, they got the buy, but then lost their first playoff game and Schottenheimer gets fired. Like that, God, that team was good. I remember that being really good too. 2013 Broncos, 2012-49ers. 2014 Broncos were also fantastic because they were a top three offense and they were top five defense.
Starting point is 00:42:09 That's when the defense was figured it out. and then Peyton hadn't fallen off the cliff yet. Exactly. I mean, you could make an argument of the 2014 Broncos. I mean, it's not even an argument. The 2014 Broncos were much, much better than the 2015 Broncos. Oh, yeah. You consider the offense and the defense.
Starting point is 00:42:24 And they did not win the Super Bowl. It's a little easier when you win one the next year. But that's why the two, and then two that I would come back to, and again, it hurts a little bit less because of everything else that happened in surrounding years. The 2007 Patriots, obviously, the 2011 Patriots were unbelievable offense. Unbelievable. Yeah. But they were the third best offense in the league that year by DVOA because it was one of the greatest offensive seasons of all times.
Starting point is 00:42:47 The Saints. The Saints that season were unbelievable. And the Packers. Packers, right? That 2011 Packers team that was 15 and 1. And Rogers won the MVP. I wonder if a mini lockout where everything got pushed back at anything to help out with offensive play that year. The two that I come back to because it's just staggering that they only won one Super Bowl are those two backers teams.
Starting point is 00:43:10 The 2011 Packers and the 2014 Packers. The 2014 team, I was covering the league full time at that point. I was very interested in that team. I wrote about them multiple times. I wrote a big story about the offensive line that year. And that group was phenomenal. I mean, just a really best offense in the league, and they lose that heartbreaking game to Seattle.
Starting point is 00:43:31 And you look back and you just think, how did that group only win one Super Bowl with Aaron Rogers? And it's seasons like that that kind of remind you of it. So those are the ones I would come back to. Those two Patriots teams, the 2016 Falcons, and we just talked about Matt Ryan's season that year. And then the other one is the Pills team we just talked about. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:48 The fact that the 2021 Bills did not win the Super Bowl, with the way that their defense played all season and with the way that their offense was playing by the end of the year, you just run into the boogeyman at the end of the road. I mean, that's just how it's gone for so many of these teams so often. And the 2019 Ravens are in this conversation. Yeah? 2019 Ravens' offense was unbelievable.
Starting point is 00:44:09 And their defense was top five. And they just have that weird game against Tennessee. And we just never think about it again unless you're a Ravens fan. Got caught in the Vrable Mock. He'll stick you. He'll get you. Also, I thought you're going to bring up maybe some of those Harbaugh 49ers teams.
Starting point is 00:44:26 Maybe as well, like those are ones. I, like, as I start kind of researching this question, I was like, oh, yeah,
Starting point is 00:44:30 those were some good teams. Yeah. 2015 Cardinals. But, you know, that was, I don't think they quite, they quite crack the list,
Starting point is 00:44:38 but you know I have a soft. spot in my heart with the 2015 5 all pros and 7 pro bowlers that year more than I remembered. And then yeah, 2018 Saints was another one that kind of came to mind. 2018 was a really fun year. The 2018 Saints is a very, very good one. That was a really fun, complete team.
Starting point is 00:44:53 One of the last like hyper-elite offenses that they had with Breeze, the defense was just starting to come on. I mean, obviously, again, so many of these teams heartbreaking moments of the reason they didn't win it. That Saints team loses in the Minneapolis miracle. The 2014 Packers lose in the Brandon Bostick onside,
Starting point is 00:45:09 kick game. Like it, the 2021 Bills losing the 13 seconds game. Like all of these teams that were at this level had some like memorably terrible moment that 98 Vikings. Jesus. Yeah, I didn't want to bring it up.
Starting point is 00:45:22 2012 Seahawks, with the Falcons game. Like there wasn't like just a quick back and forth like with a minute to go. It was something crazy. Yeah. That's right. It was some crazy at the end. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:30 I didn't watch that game. Yeah. Yeah. I brought that one up. Yeah. Oh, 98 Vikings. though. That's,
Starting point is 00:45:35 that's always going to that's, I was, I was a water boy at the time. I hadn't been promoted to ball boy. But yeah, that one's burned into my brain. There's a picture of the star trip.
Starting point is 00:45:43 And I want to say it was like Chris Carter or somebody. Somebody was like on the bench, like his head down. And there's me in the background. Like picking up a towel. A little third grade me with my childhood ended right there. That's when I realized, oh,
Starting point is 00:45:54 not everything works out great in life. That was third grade, 1998. I could pinpoint when I became an adult right there. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the Chargers teams because those early Philip River's charges teams were like absolutely in that conversation. Oh,
Starting point is 00:46:08 six through like 08, I mean, they just had so much talent lying both sides of the ball and they never got there. All right. Next one here, Sean O'Neill says, Gino Smith's success got me thinking about a type of quarterback season that seemed relatively common when I was growing up. It's become less and less common as teams continue to invest heavily in developing quarterbacks on rookie deals via the draft. The bounceback breakout season from a formerly highly touted journeyman veteran. Jeff George Romano Cunningham with the 98-9 Vikings.
Starting point is 00:46:32 Hey, Nate. Vinnie Testa Verdi with the 98 Jets, Rich Ganna with the Raiders, Trinking with the Chiefs. Had the Seahawks unintentionally found a new market and a financial. efficiency. I've obviously understand the logic trying to find your franchise quarterbacking the draft. But teams tripping over themselves to find the next Zach Wilson, Mitchibiskey, or Carson Wentz, will smart teams start targeting proven-ish starters with some upside? I worry teams are giving up on young quarterbacks too quickly, and some potentially good quarterbacks are getting thrown on the scrap heap just waiting for the right coach and supporting staff
Starting point is 00:46:59 to resurrect their careers. Add in the fact that some of these quarterbacks like Gino can be had for sub-rooky contract deals, and there's a case to be made for cheaping out on your quarterback and putting resources elsewhere. It'd be hard to thread the needle with this type of plan, but I wonder if it's the type of thing more teams should do, especially if they're just throwing darts at the board trying to escape quarterback purgatory. It's an interesting idea. It is.
Starting point is 00:47:21 My question from this, and this is the question I would pose to you, how many guys do you think are out there that could have the type of season Gino had? How many guys do you think were giving up on too fast and put in the right circumstances could have a, I'm the 10th best quarterback in the league sort of. year. And that, because if it's one every five years, then it's not really a viable. There's only one that comes to mind right now is Jacoby percent. Like that, that's, but that's not even like what his career is different than what this
Starting point is 00:47:47 kind of question is. This is guys that maybe had a chance. Jacoby's kind of been like a permanent backup spot starter. Like that's kind of been his MO. But it's like, other than that, also those kind of examples I brought up, even those late 90s Vikings teams and that's kind of what the Colts were doing the last few years. So like churn through the feds is that the situation was phenomenal. They had like several all pro linemen.
Starting point is 00:48:09 They had Randy Moss, Chris Carter, even the Vinnie Tessa Verdi example of Rich Gannon with the Raiders, Trank Green with the Chiefs with like one of the most dominant offensive lines ever. Yeah, one of the best running games you've ever seen. And then the Raiders were loaded at the Gruden and Bill Callahan years. But yeah, I think it's more, it's a hard, it's all situational. I mean, the Seahawks not only got good play out of Gino, they also crushed the draft. And so it's like there's so many circumstances, just like every quarterback. The situation has to just kind of be perfectly. for it. I'm not saying, I'm saying that if you can do this, awesome, if you can find some retread that you
Starting point is 00:48:41 really think that can work. But I don't know. It's hard. I think it's just it's going to be so situation and so very specific to teams and guys. But there's not many guys out there. I think that deserve this type of shot right now. Think about what it took for Gino to not get enough run with the Jets. He had to get his jaw broken by a teammate. And then the guy who took over for him was this like weird, lovable character who went on an insane hot streak and justified getting one more shot because this Moribun franchise happened to show some life when he was their quarterback because the starter broke his jaw. So many things had to happen for us to not see enough of Gino for it to be possible for him
Starting point is 00:49:24 to have this meat left on the bone. I think with so many of these guys, Zach Wilson and Mitch Trubiskey being good examples, Carson Wentz being another one, the league is so quarterback-centric now that you're going to find out. You're going to find out what these guys have because they're put in these situations where enough this heaped onto their shoulders. Think about the examples that Sean is throwing out here. It's a different era of football. What you're asking of the quarterback in 1995, you could have these guys that are hiding in plain sight because they're not given enough of a spotlight and enough of a role in the offense for us to find out what they really are. And only like 10 to 12 of the offensive play callers are passing game guys.
Starting point is 00:50:03 Yeah, exactly. Everyone's passing game, it blows everybody out of the 90s. Everybody. You can bring up the worst offenses right now. They're passing games. Well, you cramping? Yep. Oh.
Starting point is 00:50:22 All right. We're coming back to the show here after a quick pause. Nate was interrupted midpoint because I got a terrible Charlie horse in my hamstring. And now we can't remember what we were talking about. It was something related to Gino Smith. Yeah. Gino, I don't know. Right situation.
Starting point is 00:50:39 talking about, yeah, it's, I just think that it's hard to thread the needle. Yes, exactly. That's perfect. What Sean was talking about, where it's just really hard to thread the needle. And I think these guys are given enough spotlight, enough leash, enough time now where it's going to be harder to find these sorts of players. Yeah. You know, maybe, maybe there is a Jacoby Percett is that actually is a good example.
Starting point is 00:50:58 Maybe there's a guy who was a mid-round pick. Kirk Cousins is a good example here, right? Where you're not given the opportunity early on because you're a third, fourth-round pick. Yeah. somebody else is given the chance before where you are. And then, you know, Kirk Cousins finally gets there. But then ends up having a really long productive career as a starter. And it only happened because RG3 just kind of, you know, we know what happened with RG3's career.
Starting point is 00:51:21 But I think those kind of guys that aren't going to be given starter sort of reps because of where they were drafted, I think that's your best chance of doing it at this point. The one this year that might happen is Sam Darno, the 49ers, which I think is. I was going to, I was going to, Sam Darnal was the one that I, so one of the other questions that Sean asked was like, is there a guy that you just can't give up on? Sam Donald is. Absolutely it. He makes one throw a year and I'm like, yep, keep my stock.
Starting point is 00:51:46 But yeah, if he can't figure it out here, if he gets a shot, I can't figure it out here, then yeah, that's a complete and total miss. Other than that, he's one the most statistically worst quarterbacks the last like 10 years. All right, next one here, Devin Averly says, my question this week is, outside of the top 16 betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, who do you guys think will be the most fun team to watch this year. I wanted to have a designated team to watch outside of the Cowboys to watch on Sunday ticket. Amazing Potfellas also congrats Robert on the marriage. I really appreciate that. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:52:14 I think we'll probably have similar answers here. I know what your first one is. Oh yeah. Falcons. One bullet done. Did you see though? There are odds and everything. Win total, division odds and even conference and Super Bowl odds are all, they're all lower and there's more people buying the hype. You are 95% of that you're responsible for. Just be pounded on the drone. I'm an Energizer Bunny for the Falcons run game. I would say the Colts are super interesting just because Anthony Richardson and what I think the offense could be interesting. Panthers will be fun.
Starting point is 00:52:47 Bryce Young, the offensive line, the defense is cool. The baby cheeseheads, the Packers. That's one of my teams I'm checking it on every week until otherwise. Jordan Love, I'm really interested in the young weapons they have. I love their offensive line and run game. Everything's very offensive-centric for my answer. But then defense is just the, you know, others. And then actually the Bears.
Starting point is 00:53:09 I'm excited to see what the step forward this team takes. I really like the coaching staff. That's a staple for you. That's like not like a league pass team for you. Yeah. They're on every single. Every single week. They get a TV of your four screens.
Starting point is 00:53:20 Yeah. They're one or two. They have their own screen. You kidding me? Always every year. Oh yeah. Bears at the top right TV every single week. So for me as a neutral, they're on there.
Starting point is 00:53:30 Like they want to watch Fields. I want to watch that team step forward. I like the coaching steps. I just want to see what they're doing too. But that's my five. Falcons absolutely for me. Just because stylistically, I really enjoy watching them. I'm very excited to see what it ends up looking like with Ritter and with the weapons that they have.
Starting point is 00:53:47 Colts. And we talked about this. I think we literally framed it in these terms when we were talking about what success would look like for the Colts, just tuning as Anthony Richardson and the other rookie quarterbacks for me too. Yeah. I didn't say this yesterday when we were doing the defensive lessons pod. You know the Texans finished 12th? Yes, they did.
Starting point is 00:54:05 an EPA for play on defense last year. I noticed that as well. Okay. I noticed that as well. And so some of that is their pass rush was much better than you would anticipate it being. They wanted the best pressure rates in the league. It was like top five. And, you know, they lose Ococco and some of those other guys. It's like, how real is this?
Starting point is 00:54:21 Jerry Hughes is getting older. So it's like, all right. But Lee Collins has been good for them. They go get Willie Anderson. And they got those pieces on the back end. It's like, could the Texans be like a 500 team next year? Was this crazy? I was optimistic.
Starting point is 00:54:35 of a few months ago. I know. It's kind of weird to say based on how just dead in the water they have been over the last couple years and how ignorable they have been over the last couple years. But I'm kind of tempted
Starting point is 00:54:46 to throw the Texans in here because I want to see what the defense looks like with Damiko and some of those guys that they have. And then they got a rookie quarterback and a rookie quarterback. Always going to be worth watching. Rookie quarterback and an interesting,
Starting point is 00:54:55 one interesting unit is kind of the formula for this. I think that's a great answer because I'm interested in what they're doing too. That was, I think in way to DVOA, they're 12th or 13th, like so. Because I had one note on them and I was like, oh, the Texas. Okay, Lovie.
Starting point is 00:55:10 Thanks for the number one pick bears fans. They love that too. But no, that's a great one. There's a lot of interest, especially in the NFC, because there's a lot of reconfiguring of the NFC teams. There's a lot of more interesting teams than maybe just straight up good ones, which I think is fun, though. All right.
Starting point is 00:55:26 A couple more here. Brennan Burke says, I was thinking about the impact of veterans like DeAndre Hopkins, taking their time and potentially signing free agent deals closer to the start of the season. This got me wondering. Are there certain positions where it's easier or particularly difficult to join a team and have an instant impact without much prep time together? Or is just a matter of skill and experience regardless of position. What do you think about this?
Starting point is 00:55:45 Well, I think certain positions is just easy because they translate. Like, defense align is I think you just need a little time to acclimate and just go. Like, you're fine. That's it. You dropped him in there with like one day's notice. It's easy. I was just about to say. Look at Von Miller.
Starting point is 00:55:59 Just boom, done. Ready. You're ready to rock. I would even say running back would probably be the next one as far as like, hey, take the ball. I'm like, okay, we call this, this. That's usually what the big thing is. They understand the ask, but they have to understand what the term for that ask is. So you're translating English to Spanish in their brain.
Starting point is 00:56:15 And some guys go, oh, I spent two years in this system before, boom, I could hit the ground running. That's the biggest thing is when people say they know our system, which most of the time is a cop out for coaches. When you're adding a guy quickly like this, that is a big deal about like, okay, they could pick up the terminology and go. Well, the best example of that is what Eric Weddle did in the play. for the Rams a couple years ago. Great call. The only reason it's even possible is because he's already fluent in the terminology. Great call.
Starting point is 00:56:40 That's a perfect example. Because I think that would be one of the hardest positions. I think safety would be one of the most difficult positions to be dropped in and play redway. With the green dot. With the green dot, excuse me. Because he not only had to understand it. He had to communicate to everybody else.
Starting point is 00:56:53 Yeah, that's. But like even look, I mean, the Rams are so many of these examples. OBJ comes in. It took him a couple weeks. Receiver takes a couple weeks. Then not only just learn terminology, but to build chemistry with the quarterback. Because so much is true. Roquan last year, I think, was a good example of that where it doesn't happen right
Starting point is 00:57:07 away, but after two or three weeks, it can happen. You hopefully have a buy week. The buy week really helps fast forward everything. That's where you hopefully do. Defensive line's easiest to me. I think receiver, you need a little bit of time, be a little bit of time to understand the offense chemistry is the quarterback. You know, it slower than it would be with some other positions.
Starting point is 00:57:24 I think offensive line, interior offensive line where you're working with other people, that can take a little bit longer. And I think interior of the defense can take a little bit longer just because you're connected to so many things. To communicate. Yeah. That's the thing. Because they can know what they want to say, but then they call it, I'm just making
Starting point is 00:57:40 up a term, but they're like, Rex, Rex, Rex. And they're like, uh, that means this in our language. But in the heat of the moment, you're just going with the first, I mean, look at what Russell Wilson was doing at the first half of the year last year. He was still using old Seahawks calls because just in the heat of the moment, if you've been doing that for 10 years, it's really hard to switch wiring in your brain. It really is.
Starting point is 00:57:58 Some guys can do it, but some guys, it's a little more difficult. But I'd say D-line running back or the first two, I think, would be the easiest plug-and-play. They can go after a couple days and just get acclimated. Quarterback's obviously the hardest. We've seen some microwave quarterback situations. Like Baker Mayfield last year being the best example. But the one I would go back to that where he was the starting quarterback and he hit the ground running pretty fast is Sam Bradford in 2017. Remember when the Vikings traded for San Bradford?
Starting point is 00:58:24 They had like 10 days to get Sam Bradford up to speed to be their starting quarterback. And they played awesome. The first game they played. I was like, holy shit, they look good. And then he got hurt like two days later. I can only imagine that, like meetings. That must be the most stressful meetings if you're that quarterback coach. It was, I remember people wrote stories about it.
Starting point is 00:58:41 It was just like an around the clock crash course. Yes. Because you're installing, you're doing a whole off season in 10 days and game install, which is already a week long process anyways. Oof, that, yeah, I do not envy that. That is, I've heard stories. Perks Ballinger was telling me this. I was working with him at Pitt, another badger.
Starting point is 00:58:59 I was working on with a pit though, and he came in for the fourth preseason game to Detroit with the Lions, because we were talking about Scott Linahan. And he's like, oh, I played for Linahan for five days. And I was like, oh, really? He goes, yeah, they brought me in at the end of training camp because they had like quarterback injuries or saving the arm. And I had to play the fourth preseason game after like four or five days or something like that. And he said, like, how they were given the play call. They'd be like, okay, so this, you know, YF like this X is a stack here. Okay, so just read it out.
Starting point is 00:59:26 Read the front side out. It's just a high low. He was just on the headset just explaining how to read each playoff. You're like, this is what we call this. But I always think that's so funny that NFL levels can get to that point where they're basically drawn the play in the sand for the quarterback over the headset. All right. Last one here. Christoph Bore says, here, Robert Nate, really quick question for you.
Starting point is 00:59:46 A couple of pods you all did regarding the Hall of Very Good and the Hall of Fame had been wondering. What is the shortest possible career player could have while still making it into the Hall of Fame? What statistics, records, or accolades where the player have to compile and how quickly, in order to be selected as a finalist. I have a very quick answer to this. Okay. I think it's five years. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:00:05 And the reason I think it's five years is Patchy Mahomes is a Hall of Famer today. Yeah. So it's five years. He's had five years as a starter. And I think that you win two MVPs in five years, you're a Hallfamber. Absolutely.
Starting point is 01:00:21 And two Super Bowl MVPs. Done. Yeah. I said, like I said my bare minimum, bare, bare minimum, I'll even consider you into the Hall of Fame is what Terrell Davis did, which is four years of high-end productivity. And that's basically going into what you're saying with five years. Same thing. But that he only had seven-year career, four years of productivity, and three-year stretch, really a top-tier play. So that is like the bare minimum.
Starting point is 01:00:48 And even that, even that, the playoffs, what he did in the playoffs is a huge part of that. I mean, Terrell Davis says, oh my God, I'm looking at it right now. Holy Mother of God. How many touches he had? No, just the numbers. Oh, yeah. It's all. Daryl Davis.
Starting point is 01:01:03 Okay. In 97, right? It's ridiculous. Both. So in 90, in 97, he had 112 carries in four games. He had 581 yards of touchdowns in four games. And the playoffs? He had 145 yards a game.
Starting point is 01:01:20 He averaged 28 carries a game in the playoffs. Okay. Okay, which is insane. Remember we talk about having a schematic advantage is a huge thing in the NFL right there. He had eight touchdowns in four games in 1990. That's okay. In 98.
Starting point is 01:01:34 In 98, he averaged six yards of carry in their three playoff games. He had a hundred, averaged 156 rushing yards per game in those three playoff games before the nine, the progress won the Super Bowl. So even that, those three or four years that you're talking about without the playoff success, that doesn't happen. Yeah. So I, I think four to five years essentially like them.
Starting point is 01:01:57 minimum that you could actually play. That's it. That's what it is. I need four years. You were the peak of your powers. You're the peak of the league. That's what I look at. You're at the top of the mountain or second at the top of the mountain.
Starting point is 01:02:08 And even with that, you need to be a transcendent player and a special win Super Bowls to get in. You need special seasons. You need an MVP. You need Super Bowl MVP. You need playoff runs. You need Super Bowl wins. Yes, absolutely.
Starting point is 01:02:21 But I think Torell Davis is kind of like, he's the bar. If you can pass that as far as anything. longevity or anything like that or accolades, then yeah, then we're going to consider you. That's just how I look at anyways. All right. That's all we got. Sweet. I'm going to miss you, buddy.
Starting point is 01:02:36 I think everyone on this feed is going to miss you, but well-deserved time off. I hope you really enjoy it. I hope you and Jack spent a lot of quality time together. I hope that you get some golf in as well while Lauren's taking care of the little guy because you certainly deserve it. I appreciate it. You power and through and being there for me and for the audience, even when. and he was born in the middle of the season is pretty remarkable.
Starting point is 01:03:00 So thank you very much for everything that you put in. Thank you, man. Please enjoy the time because you deserve it. That means a lot. I really pretty, to make me tear up. I really appreciate that. I actually am. No, I really appreciate it.
Starting point is 01:03:10 It's my pleasure. It really is. I love doing the show. Missing two of them during the season, even with the birth of my child, was still like I was getting stir crazy even if I wasn't sleeping. But I'm very excited for this break. It's my coaching break.
Starting point is 01:03:23 I'm taking the exact same days off that the coaches are. but I really appreciate that. It's very, very kind of you to say. I'm going to miss doing the show, but I'm going to enjoy this break as well. So it'll be a lot of fun. You'll be back before we even know it. It'll be what we are getting going during training camp. So it'll be here in a month, not that far.
Starting point is 01:03:41 So please, guys, enjoy your 4th of July holiday. Nate, enjoy your break. I will be back on Wednesday with our first little show here in our post-nate's pre-training camp stretch, excited about that, excited for you guys to hear it for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you listening. Talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.

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