The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Mailbag: Trey Lance's future, Anthony Richardson at No. 1, accumulating picks & more

Episode Date: April 7, 2023

Robert Mays and Nate Tice open up the TAFS Mailbag for the first time in too long, with questions regarding the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft, offseasons around the NFL, QBs, coaches involvement in scouting and much more.Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@athleticfootballshow/2:00 Teams without big needs10:50 - Coach / personnel involvement19:15 - Taking CB swings30:00 - Anthony Richardson vs Stroud37:00 Trey Lance48:00 Veteran QB vs. Drafting55:00 Trading back58:00 2nd contracts1:03:00 Rebuilding Panthers vs Falcons Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. It's the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? Doing very well. I'm trying to remember the last time we did a mailbag episode.

It's been a while. For me and you, definitely been a while. I want to say last season, not 2022 season, 2021 season. I remember we did one. Like I came on on like a Monday show or something like that. And it's been a while. I'm excited to hear from everybody, especially this time. We got free agency draft.

maybe other pent-up takes that people have. So I'm excited to see this. I love mailbags. They're great. We got a couple different sorts of questions that we're going to address over the next month or so. I responded to some of you via email. Some of you, I have not. We got a couple Steelers questions.

We have an idea that's coming later this month that I think we'll touch on the Steelers. We got questions about kind of the middle part of the draft, some teams in there that don't get a lot of publicity. We're going to talk about them on a show a little bit later. A couple position specific questions, receivers, tackles, that kind of stuff. We have a receiver show coming that will run on Monday. We have an offensive line show next week that will run later next week. So a lot of the stuff is going to naturally happen. I lean away from the mailbag simply because it's like, oh, I want to come up with a really good idea, you know, like a really good, interesting idea.

But then when we do them, the questions are always so good. And not only do they allow the listeners to kind of get a say in the show, but they get my gears turning as well. Because some of the questions are well posed or they seem simple, but in actuality, there's a lot more to dig into. So as always, just blanket statement. Thank you to everyone who took the time to send something in. It truly does mean a lot that you would take time out of your day to ask us these things and want to be a part of the show. So thank you to everyone that did that. It always means a lot.

So let's get to it. Can you want to roll our first voicemail here? Hey, Robert. Hey, Nate. Big time, long time listener, first time caller. I wanted to ask about the teams that didn't have gigantic. gigantic needs in the draft or free agency, right? An example is, say, the Eagles offense or the chiefs offense when, you know, maybe a little

bit of turnover or some tweaks here and there. What are those teams really focused on in terms of, obviously, there's a lot that worked in 2022, but you can't just run the same offense back out on the field in 2023. So what are the things that those teams are focused on in terms of making tweaks, making adjustments to continue to do the things that work while also adding new wrinkles, keeping things fresh, really focused on the offensive side and the ball, but we'll be curious to hear about the defense as well if you both have a perspective on that. I want to talk about this because I think the idea of needs every offseason is interesting

on its own and how you think about need and how you chase players at quote-unquote positions of need. I want to start with the Eagles for me because you're thinking about what? what they would do at 10 and the different positions that they could go with. You know, in theory, do they have a need at corner because Darius Slate could be gone as soon as next year, positions like that. But with them specifically, they just hammer these same high value positions over and over and over again.

So the Jalen Carter news from this week, how he's not taking meetings with anyone outside the top 10. Well, I wouldn't be surprised at all if that's because Howie Roseman said to Drew Rosenhouse, listen, if he's there, we're going to take him. because wouldn't that make a ton of sense? Javon Hargrave is gone. How long is Fletcher Cox going to be there? And the Eagles specifically, even if they're not quote-unquote positions of need,

and you could argue that defensive tackle is in a post-Hardgrave world, they just continue to stockpile players at these positions. They've done it with past rushers. I wouldn't be surprised that they took another offensive Wyman in this draft to kind of keep that assembly line going for when Cam Jorgans eventually moves over to center. Do they need a right guard of the future? You're like the Eagles are almost an easy team to think about draft wise because it feels like you know where they're going to be throwing darts positionally. Yeah.

And also, so, hold on. I took this question in a different, different paths. All right. I'm into it. I'm into it. But I want to say, I do love that aspect of Howie Roseman's team building is always builds through the trenches. Let's use a lot of draft capital on these guys because I like what you said, the assembly line. That's a big theory of mine.

Of course, coming from my dad, who's an offensive line coach. his theory was always take one every year. Not in the first round, but take what, you know, top three, four rounds. Take a guy every year. Just always have backups. Always have a plan for these guys. But I took this question as more of a self-scouting question for coaches and all that. Interesting.

Okay. Yeah. So when the season ends, say you didn't make the playoffs, your team, usually the coaches will have kind of the year-round meetings with their players, the head coach, the coordinator, the position coach, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But then the coaches will get a little break. And then they'll come back. And usually when they come back, it's a period of self-scouting, of review of not just players, but concepts.

And so I took kind of like the tweaking and the wrinkles and that kind of aspect of this question. I kind of went expounded on it. They'll research concepts and grade them. So like say just for instance, I was just giving an example for what we had. Oh, wow. Every time we ran out inside zone out of 11 personnel, we sucked at it last year. But every time we did it out of heavy personnel, we were really good out of it. Okay.

So next year we got to remember when we're installing plants, that we're better at this aspect. Oh, we're losing our right guard, though, and he was really good at this cutoff. So make sure we go. And so it's just learning what you're good at and narrowing your focus. But I also think this is a really interesting time.

This is where the copycat of the NFL comes, is teams will start presenting ideas or maybe the quarterback coach has a cutup of all the cool plays he saw in the past year and it's like, hey, this is good for our personnel. I just saw the Cowboys gashing teams with this play when we were scouting them going against the defense that we played against.

Man, we should maybe install that because that'll be good for a quarterback or a running back or a receiver or offensive line. But also, this is where plays get stolen from the college level. And this is my favorite thing. And this is the best example I'll ever have about this is the all-go running back scene play. I've referred to this on the podcast before, but this is a great example with this question of how teams find tweaks and wrinkles. So when Carson Wentz was a prospect, everybody all sons watching North Dakota State film. And North Dakota State's a very successful program.

but and they also did a lot of they do a lot of stuff with tight ends and fullbacks and so teams are watching cars and wents and they're scouting them also in north i go north Dakota states gashing defenses with this play all go running back seam which is four verticals the running back or the fullback would be the guy running up the seam the team that stole it first was the chiefs they watched it and it was brad chilter says the spread analyst or whatever his term yeah his title was college watcher essentially was his job description and he's like he was like i actually asked him about this when we worked in the aaf that's a story for another time. He looked at me like, who told you that? It was like, well, kind of put two and two together

where you guys were the first ones to run that play. And so they watch it and then other teams are like, hey, that's pretty good. And all of a sudden you see the Packers running it. We ran it with the Raiders. You see all these teams kind of picking it and like going like, that's a good play. But teams just start cherry picking for other ideas. So that's what I looked at right here is this time period before the prospect watching happens, the end of January to about the middle of February before the combine hits. It's a self-evaluation period. Everyone does a different differently, but it's a lot of meetings, a lot of like presentations and packages of plays and stats about who is good at what and what concepts were good. But this is the time period that

they do that where they tweak it, at least offensively and where I've been. Everyone does a little different, but I do know this is a big self-scouting period. And I think that you can do that and refresh your ideas with personnel as well. Think about what the Eagles did last year with AJ Brown where it's like, okay, if we're going to evolve and take a step, that's obviously a big one, right? That's a very clear one. But the chiefs, it was a little bit subtle. in the sense they lost Tyree Kill, so they have to figure out this version of their offense. So now how does personnel or personnel additions

potentially shift what the chief's offense is going to look like next year? I think I saw that Quentin Johnson took a visit to Kansas City as one of the teams he visited with this year. So like, okay, you drop a skill set like that into what you're doing, then what does your offense become? So I think that that's now a question for both of these teams is if you add one, two more guys here in the draft process to what you want to be on offense,

how does that kind of push on your evolution to the next phase of things? Yes. And the good teams are the best at this, of course, and the best play callers, the most creative play callers and play designers. And no, that's a great, great example. Or you're losing a guy that, you know, I'm just making up one. I don't know this personally, but like the bills, they lose Cole Beasley, you know. And now it's like, well, can't really run those choice routes that we ran every single snap.

Like, we can't do that anymore. So how are we going to hodgepodge? Do we have another guy that can drop in that can maybe do that route now? let's study them. Do we think that's, okay, now we got to get to the personnel department. We don't think receiver X can do that. So, hey, we might need to target a guy on the draft. Can we lean in that we really want a receiver in the draft? You know, this is where this kind of process starts. But your example getting brought up of who you drop in and what you study and how teams use these guys. This is where this comes from is this time period when teams are studying other

teams and studying players. And this is where the spark of creativity happens. It's really fun. and you can see what teams are really good at it. Andy Reid being won. The Chief's example is great, too, with their run game. The end of 2021, they started tweaking the runs and we're starting to see it. And then we got to see that in 2022, the 13 personnel with the three tight ends. It's because of something they fell into at the end of 2021. So it's kind of cool what you see they trim out and expound on.

All right. Next one here. Nate Christensen says, my question is related to Nate's scouting background. During a season, scouts for the draft are working through the college football season, but NFL coaches obviously don't have time to watch all these prospects. My question is how does that process work with coaches? As soon as the season is done, how are coaches given guys to watch? How much input do they have on draft selections and evaluations?

Are there any cool stories about a coaching and scouting conflict because I would love to hear them? This is all you, buddy. This is a very fun question. Every team is different. I will say that in every situation is different. Some teams are great. And I'm going to say great. There's give and take with this of having the personnel and the coaches work hand in hand

with everything. Some like it's siloed and where they don't interact at all. That's a very old school line of thinking. That's a Patriots have had that, you know, when Dante Scarnacki was on the show last year, and even him, and he was a legend as a position coach. And hearing how little input he had on the process and how late he came to it is fascinating. You compare that to a team like the Bengals where the coaches are part of the scouting department at times.

So it's all over the place. It is. And like even my time with the Falcons and they had a lot of Patriots to their ways of how they went about things day to day, also in Kyle Shanahan gets dropped in. And Kyle likes a lot of say in his personnel. So that had to get molded a little bit and reconfigured a little bit. And same with Dan Quinn. He likes input.

He comes from the Seahawks way of thinking where it's everybody's kind of hand in hand. So it is. That was very famously siloed before Dan Quinn got there. And then I can't remember if it was him or Thomas Dimitrov told me that the carpet between the personnel and the scouting departments in Atlanta was not well worn. before Dan got there. But then when Dan and Kyle were there, they had some very intentional meetings

where the coaching staff kind of presented the players that they wanted. And that's something that used to happen in Seattle, but hadn't happened in Atlanta. So again, that's just, it's very different, a lot of different places. It is. And I got a good story coming up about it. So I do have one story.

It's a personal story. So I'm excited. It does involve Kyle Shanahan. So, but yeah, personal departments, what they'll usually go about is, all right, so I'm talking to the running back coach. All right, here's 10 guys we want you to watch.

Some of them could be the top end guys. Some could be the range that the personnel department is thinking that they might select a running back. And some just be like, hey, we have questions on this guy. What do you think? Just get another data point in here. So again, every team's dynamics are different. Some they might give a coach they don't really like like five guys and go like who gives a shit, what he thinks. And that happens.

And they might go, hey, offensive line coach, we value everything. You say, here's 20 guys. Could you grade all of them? Like, we're going to take what you say and really hold it and use that data point and really weigh. it. But that's just, you know, again, everyone's different. Every coach is different. But my personal story is what do you think is the better way to do it? Do you think there is a better way to do it between those two approaches where there's a ton of coaching input or not a lot of coaching input? Because I can understand the upsides and downsides of both approaches. Yeah, I do too.

I do think coaches should have a say and figure out the ingredients. But I do think it's up to the personnel, the decision maker to figure out how much to weigh each guy. I've been around some coaches that are fantastic talent evaluators that like understand exactly weaknesses, what is actually coachable, what's not coachable. And I've been more often than not, most coaches are pretty terrible talent evaluators because, and I've made this joke before is because they think they can fix everything. Oh, well, that guy wasn't coaching them right. So you just have to weigh this.

And this is this is when you're the CEO of a team or just the GM of a team and the decision maker, that's something you have to evaluate and weigh in. What I liked what the Falcons did when I was there was every, you had your area. Area Scouts, you know, and then scouts above that. But every area scout also was in charge of a position. So the Southeast Scout also was the cross-check guy for the D-Bs. So then- Explain cross-checking. So you have your area scout.

So say you're the Southeast scout. You're usually watching all the SEC schools, some ACC schools, everybody in the southeast area. Then there's going to be a guy above that that's the regional scout. So you have West and East Coast. So that's like a step above, you know, it's a rank. And then they're going to cross-check guys above a certain grade. Then you have your college director who will cross-check that. that you're just getting more eyes on guys.

And then you'll have your cross-check with the position. So like I said, that's South East Scott. That's the area. But then he might have a position that he's the lead on. And he'll stack and grade the guys how he thinks and rank them, basically. Hey, I watched all 100 dbs. This is all corners. This is how I rank the corners.

And then they go into the meetings and present that. But those guys will then, what I liked with the Falcons said, and I think most teams do this is then that guy, whoever the cross-check guy is, will then meet with the position code. Hey, what do you like? Who did you like? Well, this is a guy I like this day three guy. I kind of like what do you think about them? Bring some eyes to maybe some lesser talented guys or lesser graded guys or vice versa. Some highly graded guys that they kind of hold in high esteem. So that's what cross check is. It's just again as many eyes as possible and as much communication as possible. I did like that aspect a lot with the with the with the Falcons that we did. So then how from all of those different inputs does the actual board come to be? Uh, meetings. It's well, it's meetings. It's meetings. You're meetings. you'll have your area, or say, say that the running back cross-check scout. He goes in the meeting with the running back coach, usually the offensive coordinator,

the head coach, and then the higher-ups for the personnel department. So you have that, yeah, cross-check scout. You'll have the director of college scouting, director of player personnel. If they have an assistant GM and the GM, they'll all be in that meeting with the head coach, everybody, and then they just start going through the grades. And they just start going how they stack each position. And some go rogue. You might have a guy that's really lowly graded, but then the power,

is that be ago, well, we really like him. So he's on top of the board. So sometimes the grades just get ignored based on vibes based on what they like. And I understand that. But that actually ties into my story about Kyle Shanahan. And this is, so like I said, when with the Falcons, especially when I was there, it was very siloed. Hey, you know, you're in personnel.

Be nice to the coaches. But, you know, keep it separate. You know, church and state a little bit. And my office, quote, unquote office, it was a former, uh, closet that they turned into an office that was across from the break room. So the coaches all the time would be walking by. And, you know, you know, my role, I was a scouting assistant. I was a grunt, you know, did some pro scouting as well.

But they were, they were like, hey, this is, you know, Tice's kid. You know, so I know, I know this guy, even though they didn't know me. So they would walk in and Kyle came in one time. He has his list of the 10 running backs that they gave him to watch. And did it. And then he just goes, who do you like? And I was like, okay, this is tough. All right.

It's, you know, Kyle fucking Shanahan. And then it's all, you know, I understand rank and I understand it. It was a really tough spot. And I'll send, I'm like, okay, I like this guy. Like this guy. And he goes, anybody not on this list that you like at the running back position? And I was like, oh, all right. All right.

And I gave him David Johnson was one of them. I was a big fan of David Johnson. This is not to say, like, I was right about everything. But you, I have text messages to prove this. Pre that draft, you were a huge fan of David Johnson, such that I took him in like the third round of my rookie draft in my keeper league. because you liked him so much. To your window where it was great.

It was really smart. It was incredible. And he was one of the guys. And he was not on his list of eight guys or whatever they had. Crosscheck had him watch. And then he goes into the meeting that I just talked about where all these coaches and scouts are in the meeting. And he starts talking about David Johnson. And then finally someone, one of the powers that be, he goes, Kyle, can I ask, why did you watch David Johnson?

He was on the list that we gave you. And Kyle thought he was giving me an adder boy. And he goes, oh, Nate Tice told me to watch. him. Oh, it was the worst thing that could have happened for me. And I was like, it was good because I kind of like, I had a good relationship with Kyle. But at the same time, it was just like, oh, they had some unhappy bosses that came by my quote unquote office that day. But yeah, that's my personal story about sometimes interactions aren't the best, even if it comes out positively. So I always bring up that one because it makes me sound decently smart that I like

David Johnson. So. And right now, there are a lot of those draft meetings happening, you know, a lot of like the late stage ones. This is the time in the calendar when you send out some text messages and not expect to be to get them back for several hours when people come out of a whole. So it's kind of where we are at the stage of the draft process. It's their intense. Six hour meetings, man.

There are times where you'll reach out to somebody like, we got draft meetings. It's like, well, I'll talk to you in two weeks. You know, that that's pretty much how this time is, which is always funny. All right. Next one here. Mitch Montbrien says, he said something very. I don't like reading the compliments at the beginning of the questions. I feel like it's self-serving. Mitchman-Bryan says, you guys got me thinking with how you talked about the mid-tier

defensive backs contract handed out in free agency this year. Doesn't it make more sense to spend high draft picks and pay top-tier free agents amongst the defensive line rather than at defensive back? Here's my reasoning. Do you want performance as much easier to predict from college to the pros from year to year as a pro? Two, the secondary is a weakling system. So even if you're strong across the board except for one position, the opponent will pick on your weakest player. With this logic doesn't it make sense to not be picking defensive backs in the first round, but instead build it like the Bucks did by taking lots of swings with day two picks. What you thought about this?

So I think as far as safety, hell yeah, like wait until day two. Sure. Okay. Okay, that's what I'll start. I just did a quick little hand count before the show. 24 safeties last year got all pro votes, first or second team, which I think is a hilarious number, by the way. By my count, only three of them were first round.

founders. Make a Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, and Harrison Smith. Don't get me wrong. Harrison Smith was probably a token vote by name. But Makea Fitzpatrick and Durham James, very good players. Both of my first team, all pros, I believe. As far as corner, I go back and forth on this because I do think coaches have become better at not having the need for having that lockdown guy, just based on what the systems are being used in the scheme. But if you really want that true blue top tier corner, that does change the math and make life easier for you, you kind of have to invest a first round pick. It's kind of been proven.

There's not a lot of outliers and not being first rounders and being a good corner. Yes, there's Richard Sherman, who is like total outlier, fifth round pick and all that. And there's others, of course, Norman and all those, Josh Norman and stuff. But the best players are generally the best athletes as far as everything in size, speed length. They're the ones that are the top of the spectrum for that. And those guys usually go in the first round. And that's usually what you have to find at the corner. position. I understand the sediment here. I think filling out the rest of your roster,

you don't need always have those first rounders at safety, second corner and slot. But I think if you truly want a guy that's a true blue lockdown corner, you have to invest in the first round pick. But I do like this question a lot. I think that there is a certain tier of corners that excuse themselves from this conversation. And we can look at recent top tens and find two very easy examples, sauce Gardner last year and Patrick Sertan, right? What those, guys can do and the fact that, all right, I can lock him on the backside one-on-one with someone and I can split my resources elsewhere. That is, in my opinion, if you have a guy who you can trust to that degree, then the weakling system argument becomes less important because now

he's flipping the math in your favor. He's not just a piece of a whole. He's actually dictating the way that you can play defense. And so if you have one of those guys, and I think that sauce or tan, you know, what Jalen Ramsey has been, guys that are at the high, high end of it, then that does change it. I think that that tier is very small. And it's not as consistent from season to season because we just don't see guys that are right there at the top every single year. Like what Jalen Ramsey has done over his entire career, he's the rarity here. A lot of the time, cornerback performance can be really up and down. And we'll see what happens with Sertan and sauce. But I have a feeling that they might be two of

those guys that consistently stay in the conversation, you know, for the first four or five years of their career. And it changes that value proposition. On the whole, I do tend to agree with this line of thinking because it doesn't matter where you drop Chris Jones or Miles Garrett or, I mean, obviously, Aeronautil's his own beast, but these guys who are truly the top of the line sort of pass rushers, they exist independent of the things around them. To an extent, right?

If you have better players around you, you get fewer double teams, all that kind. kind of stuff. But Joe, Nick Bosa is going to affect the game no matter what. And I think that you could probably make that same argument for Jalen Carter and Will Anderson or even a Tyree Wilson, for example, right?

So let's say you're the Lions and you're picking between Gonzalez or Tyree Wilson at six. I think it is much easier definitively to say that I, Tyree Wilson relies on fewer things to be good than the corners we're going to draft in this situation. And I think that it is, is worthwhile to take that into account as you're making the decision. Absolutely.

I'm always a believer in past rush or defense aligned before a corner and get into this part of the conversation too. So that's always something I believe in as well. Like you're saying scheme proof and that that's the best compliment you can give to a player. And defense aligned, it's easier to be scheme proof just for the reasons you said. It's rushing the passer is rushing the passer. Yes, there's going to be times where, okay, this defense has me do a lot more twists in games. but you know, you're generally going to do the same things from scheme to scheme to scheme. Like it really is going to be asked to do the same thing.

So there's less kind of drop off if you're dropping a guy or placing a guy in to the NFL level. But I agree with this wholeheartedly. I've always got to build through the line first. That's so I think the defensive line too. Also, it's easier just to translate some stuff. college scouting college dbs is hard. It's a really hard position. Pressure rates are sticky, man.

Pressure rates are often sticky, and from season to season they're sticky. Like, it's just easier to predict who the best pass pressure are going to be every single year. I mean, if you look at it, season to season, it's pretty easy to predict who's going to be the guy who leads the league in pressures or sacks, right? Like, you and I pick Nick Bosa to be the defensive player

of the year last year and to lead the league in sacks. Because he's the best pass pressure. Right. So, and Michael Parsons is right there. Like, those guys, when healthy, are typically going to be right at the top of that list. Corners not like that. Corner's up and down and around. I mean, it's just a lot harder to be that consistent at that position.

What's interesting to me is you said, I've been both of the lines first. Even though they're outside players and skill position players, quote unquote, I think that receiver is more similar to pass rusher in that you can have an impact on your own, right? Jamar Chase is going to be good, independent of who else is with him. So I think that's what makes it interesting on the other side is that I actually think that picking a receiver might be safer than picking an offensive lineman who's dependent on some of the guys around him. See, and that's what I always, it's hard for me with the receiver stuff because there's so

many dominoes up to fall before they can get the ball. Like they need a good game plan. They need an offensive line that can protect the quarterback. And the quarterback has to get them to the ball. I've seen so many productive. I think the 2021 Bengals are just rotting my brain. It's, I mean, but it, trust me, they have, the Bengals have, anyone's listened to the show for the last couple of years. The Bengals have done a lot to us, like just a lot of thinking the in general because.

Even the Eagles this year, though, even how quickly in some of those like, all right, it's single high, I'm throwing it to the good guy. Like, I just think there's a way for the process to actually get sped up when you drop that guy into the situation. and so you were less dependent on the other pieces around him. Yeah. Does that make sense? No, it absolutely does. And that's why I struggle with this because I grew up with Randy Moss.

So I see what a guy like that can do for an entire offense, even without interchanging quarterbacks. I've seen him, Gus Ferrat put up a perfect QB rating in a game with Randy Moss. Like, you know, I've seen like what they can do for whatever quarterback. It's, it's, I think more what I, I think I just go on maybe like the average player logic or the average situation logic than what impacts more. And I think maybe just like having a competent offense alignment just makes everything easier.

And I know obviously a receiver is going to make passing the ball easier. I think it's more just that down to down thing that that's what I'm so hung up on. It's, I love this conversation because trust me, if this was three years ago, I wouldn't even be arguing with this. I would just be like, I'd be rolling my eyes on this. But it's just real, it's fun to see an example like the Bengals being number one about how those pass catchers have overcome any weaknesses that they've had up front. So I don't know.

I really just always looking at offensive line and always rejuvenating that and then finally the past catchers last. That's just, this is a hard, wired thinking that I'm going to have for a long time. I also think that this year's dolphins are a point in the receiver category as well, where it's like we don't even notice the fact that the Dolphins offensive line wasn't good for some stretches of this because of how fast the space was created that they

had with her off. within two and a half seconds. And it's that I think that's another, that's another great example though, too, is that for points you're making is that those receivers make less time to throw more about like that's the room for error. Now you don't need those guys to come open. So I do.

Yeah, yeah, there's, but you also need like the quarterback needs to be able to make guys. There's so many different things. Like, right? Like the, the dolphins had this perfect combination of receivers that just created all of this space.

Like the dolphin's offense is fast. fascinating. Because when you think about what the Niners are, right? The Niners are this yak monster where we're going to get the ball in these guys' hands or we're going to let them go to work and what they do as playmakers in space as runners is a huge part of what we are in offense. The Dolphins' offense didn't have any yak because it was all space creation with the speed that they had.

But it's still the same idea where the playmakers are streamlining what your quarterback has to do so the decision-making comes quicker and the offensive linemen become less important. Because you're not really dropping back and playing that same sort of style that some other teams are. The Niners have been able to get by with lesser offensive linemen. The Dolphins have been able to get by with lesser offensive linemen. The Bengals have been able to get by with lesser offensive linemen. Does that mean anything? Or are those situations so specific with the play callers, the coaches, and the quarterbacks those teams have that we shouldn't learn that much from them?

I don't know the answer to that. I don't either. And that's the thing. It's like these, Kyle Shanahan again, we're going to bring him up again on this show, is that he has made a system and an offense that is so O-line and QB independent that it's so hard to kind of just go like, yeah, do that.

Well, if Kyle's designing plays for me, yeah, hell yeah, let's do that. And they're calling and feeling, setting up other place. And, you know, with what the dolphins have done, they've done kind of like a pint-sized version of that or like a a Diet Coke version of that, but it's in their own way.

Like, they cranked it up and just went, a full on speed and just speed speed speed pure finesse. There's no like we're going to run it down your throat. They had like the one of the worst short yardage success rates in the league. I mean like under 50% which was like that's remarkable because they are just say screw it. We're going to we're being it with speed.

So I know it's hard. Again, the bangles too. That's the other thing too is that they just throw go balls and have guys dunk on you. And it's great. That's fun football. It seems like it's like why doesn't everybody do that? It's like yeah. That's what good receivers can do.

is they can kind of really help you out there. All right. One more part of this question for Mitch. He says, P.S. Nate, it sounds like Anthony Richardson is actually your QB1. You're just too afraid to be the first one to say it. What say you? A little bit, yeah.

I didn't put it. How did I present it? I said, if my job wasn't on the line, you would take him with the number one pick. Yes. Your job isn't on the line. You can say it if you want to. I will, especially where the Panthers are at. But I mean, I watch more of these guys.

I can't help myself. I'll just watch another game just out of boredom. Just back, am I crazy? Am I crazy? And then like I watched him again. I watched like a crappy game. Like it was in South Florida. It was a different game.

One of you only threw like 14 passes in. And like the first three throws were all touchdowns. And he like ran for another one. I was like, yeah. Okay. It's kind of hard. It's becoming harder and harder as days go on to like argue. I did watch.

I did a video on Stroud though. And Stroud is very clean, man. You take a step back. I've watched these guys like 17 times now. And every time I come back and I get back to the exact same spot, I'm like Stroud's really clean. But Richardson, man, there's some upside there. I don't know enough about Ohio State's offensive system

or the way that progressions within that offense would work and with the talent he's playing with to be able to make a definitive statement about how good of a football process or C.J. Stroud is. Like when things become a little bit, bit messier and he doesn't have this talent advantage all the time. What is he going to look like as a quarterback? I can't speak to that with any sort of certainty or authority.

But as a thrower of the football, he is awesome. I went back, I was trying to watch Jackson Smith and Jigba, the receiver show that we're going to be doing a little bit later this week for Monday. And I went back and I watched, I think it was the Oregon game from last year. And he threw a ball to Chris Oliva. I tweeted it out. And it was like a too high look before the snap, and they shifted to single high after the snap,

and he had covered three, and he immediately took the one-on-one outside. And he puts it on a line that doesn't allow the safety to get there, and it's just perfect placement. It's perfect placement. And he makes it look so easy. And it's just like, man, again, just the pure throwing of the football is absolutely gorgeous.

And I don't know enough about, I haven't sat in a meeting with him. I haven't seen his S2 test on any of that shit. But in terms of how accurate and consistently accurate he is, it's wild to watch. I've underrated too his because it's not as loud, I guess is a good way to put it or overdone like a theater kid with the protection stuff that he does sometimes. But he's better in that regard than maybe even I gave him credit for too, which is that's a big thing for me. because why I always bring that up too. I want to like go to a little rant real quick is because that's you're almost basically needed to do that at the NFL level.

So I want to see glimpses that the coaches in college go, okay, he can handle it right now. Because in college, if they don't, if you're supposed to be the best player on the field, if you're the quarterback going in the top 10 and they don't trust you any mental side, oh, it's just such a scary thing for me because it's like, okay, the college coaches aren't like aren't giving you that freedom yet. And yes, some of these guys are young. But when you see a young guy doing all that, this is why I was so high on Ritter. Ritter was like freaking changing everything, changing plays, moving guys, changing protections.

And I was like, oh, that's going to translate. That's easy. So maybe it's some old coach in me that I'm just kind of like I need to see a little bit of that. And seeing more of that from him, I was actually, oh, that's pretty cool. Okay, but long story short, get into it. Yeah, I probably would go with Richardson number one. Because just look what the top guys look like in the quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Yeah.

That's what you're aiming for when you pick these guys. so high. So why not shoot for the moon? And it can change. And I get it. It's a risk, but I don't think it's as big of a risk as people have made it out to be. I agree with you. Because I also think that the thing I feel like is the most difficult to change is how you feel the game, right? How you see and feel the game. And when you watch him play, he clearly feels the game in a really natural way. Like, there are accuracy issues, but that stuff you can work on. And I do feel like we, there used to be that kind of old ad is that you can't make a quarterback more accurate. And I just don't think that's really true.

I think that we've seen guys get more accurate as their training has changed and as they've become like professionals at this. Josh Allen being the best example. And they work out for six months in the office. Yeah. And yes. And you're working with the best guys. I do,

I do think that that is less of a concern that it used to be. But if you don't, if you don't feel the game well, that's something that I think is either innate or that that's the man. I think is innate. I think you either have that or you don't. And when you watch him play the pressure to sack stuff, how he like maneuvers, pressure, all those sorts of things.

I feel like he does have a real natural sense for all of that stuff. And a lot of people, too, I've noticed, and I get it. Not everyone's, we're watching all this is, but people have said completion percentage equals accuracy. And I've realized, and that's why you need to watch these guys, because even watching the Florida's offense, I tweeted his target map. And there's nothing under 10 yards, nothing that they barely throw, because that was their offense.

There was no of those gimmies, the bubbles, the screens, the, the, the, just slants RPO's. They didn't run any RPO's. And so he didn't have that to lift up that completion percentage. He's only throwing the ball 18 times. All of them were heavy play action, launching it 20-something yards down the field. Yeah, no shit is completion percentage.

It's going to be like 55%. That's really hard to do. And even the process stuff, like you're talking about the feel for the game, you can see him trying to do the right thing and doing it with his clock. He was listening to his feet going one to two and finding the checkdown on the swing.

And doing it, and people are saying, oh, he's throwing all these balls in the dirt. I've legit watched seven games now of this guy. I don't see that. Like, I really don't. I don't see where these sprays that people are talking about. Yeah, he'll have one or two.

Every quarterback does, and he throws it so fucking hard. Of course, it's going to go past the guy and look bad. Justin Herbert has a spray every once in a while, and you're like, what was that? Justin Herbert also had accuracy issues in college at times.

Quote unquote. And it's because they've had random vertical offense with a lot of sprouting out and stuff. Yeah. And so you've got to look at these things and saw, I see him just throwing things. Anyways, I really just think there's less of that kind of like, wow, he has accuracy issues than people have, like, made it out to be. I don't think it's that big of a problem.

I think the processing he's going to get there. He's already shown glimpses of the good stuff. All right. Next one here. Chris Prasher says, greetings from unit Germany. Big fan of the show. Great to hear it every week. My question for the mailbag would be, what do you think will happen with Trey Lance? And Chris asked some things about the Texans, and I don't necessarily think that they're the best fit for him just because they're in a position to draft a quarterback high. And, you know, you're resetting your financial clock and you can kind of stay on that correct timeline. But on a broader level, I think Chris's interest in Tray Lance's future is not something we've really talked about a lot.

Like, what do we think is going to happen with Tray Lance? And then beyond that, what do you think should happen with Tray Lance? Like, where do we stand on Tray Lance right now? I mean, they've only got, what, like four games out of them so far? And this year, the two games he played. One was in a monsoon. Yep. okay and that no one could move the ball they they lost to a bear's team that ended up becoming the

worst team in the NFL and the second game he got hurt yep so we saw it first drive or the second drive he got hurt too it was almost immediately yeah so we have the two starts from last year where he was thrust into spot duty as a guy who'd had like 10 career games and then we had a start in the pouring rain this year and the game where he got hurt that that's what we have gotten from tray lance sample size, man. I'm still in on him because he hasn't shown me enough to be out on him. And that's where I'm at. It's just they're still paying off that trade.

Like the credit card is still has payments on it. And that's what it's just weird to me to also just got. Yeah. And again, the team of the show, Kyle Shanhan, yes, he kind of does things to his own beat. And, you know, like taking a guy that the scouting assistant told you to watch and then bring him up in the meeting. Like he does things like that. He does everything on his own.

It annoys people, but it works. And so, but I just don't, it's so hard for me to fathom them just going, like, pulling the cord and going, yeah, we're done. Let's move on from him. It's not hard for me to fathom that. Oh, I know. You know why? So this, today, I want to say somebody was talking about how Chris Mortensen was discussing the fact that the Niners traded up with Mack Jones in mind in that draft. And then eventually, I think Peter Schrager was talking about it was the second trip they took to South Dakota to work, North Dakota to work out Tray Lance that ultimately swayed them in that direction.

I would argue that's a bad process. But no matter how you slice it, if Mack Jones was the kind of platonic ideal of what they wanted at the quarterback position, and their main argument for why they made that trade was we need to put ourselves in a position to draft someone because of Jimmy's health more than anything else, they found that guy. What they got out of Brock Purdy this year and what he is within that offense, the idea that I'm going to tell you to throw the football here, you are going to do it and you have a smidgen enough off-schedule playmaking to you that you can do something when it breaks down

a little bit more than Jimmy Garoppolo could. I think that's all Kyle Shanahan wants from his quarterback. I don't think he needs anything more than that. And I think the results that they got, plus the taste and whatever taste he has for the position, I think that that is the reason that they'd be willing to move on from Trey Lance. And the reason that John Lynch said publicly, like two weeks ago, that Brock Purdy is the leader in the clubhouse when he gets healthy to be their quarterback. So it's not surprising to me, even if when you consider the price tag, that element of it is shocking.

That's what I mean. He does everything, whatever. He doesn't care that public perception of it. He's going to do it. That's why I can't do that. Like, I would be like, no, no, I'm making this guy work. I don't have a job. But they, but they can, he can do that.

He has that kind of collateral to do it. And the pretty stuff, because I think I've seen people tweet these stats about it and I, and, you know, just watching it is that. he does attack vertically more than Jimmy ever did. Like he threw more go balls or vertical balls in like four starts than Jimmy did in like a season and a half or whatever it was. And also the creation stuff. That's how I knew Brock Purdy was that he was chaotic. He was a captain chaos quarterback.

Just let him run around and throw accurately. And apparently he's smart and they like it. So I get what you're saying that. That's kind of maybe what he wanted just a little bit more. The thing for me right now is that those skill position guys are so freaking good. and that defense is so good that anybody could look good in that offense. I understand that, but those elements of it, we thought eventually they were going to have to deteriorate. Yeah.

They haven't, though. They haven't deteriorated. Those guys are all back. I know. I mean, we'll see what happens with IUC and whether or not they can afford him into whatever next season is going to happen. But right now, they're going to get to run this back again with that same group of guys. And that, I'm totally with you. That was my argument for why they should go after a guy like Tray Lance.

I've said this 100 times. Kyle that over like an 18 month span, Kyle played Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl and lost. And it was just like, Jesus Christ. And then they played against Josh Allen on that Monday night in Arizona where the fires push them to Phoenix to play that game. And Josh Allen made like four or five throws in that game. They're just like, fuck you throws. and I just had this sense that with those experiences in the back of his mind

and seeing where the position was going at some point during the process, then Kyle and the Niners Brass were just like, all right, we need to get us one of these. Right. But then over time, you've seen that this formula that they've created, the one that he originally wanted to tap into with Mack Jones is viable in a way that it might not be with other teams in the NFL,

which I think is amazing. Right. God, they just do everything. their own, man. Well, and this is another argument, you know, you're talking about the Mahomes and Josh Allen. It's another argument for Anthony Richardson, number one, because it's like he has the possibility to be that guy to do those types of things that the fire breathing dragon that you're going for. Man, would you, if you were a team that needed a quarterback, would you take a swing on

Trey Lance? Oh, yeah. That's, that's what I would be curious to see. If you're a team that, she's like, how, we need to try something. I'm trying to think of what the best example would be. Like, so let's say this. Okay, let's say the Titans get into a position where we just want to have a dice roll. Okay, what do you think it would take to get trailouts from the Niners right now? That's what I, I don't know what the cost would be because they would for sure ask for a first rounder and they'll for sure ask for what, two day two picks? Oh, I see, I think, I don't think they have a like to stand on with that. They've publicly said that he is not going to be the starter.

True. Or that he is not the favorite to be the starter. I think that they have. What did Jimmy do you go for originally today? second rounder second rounder i think it was a second rounder yeah it's just one right man no i would say they start with that first round back hey what pick 11 man uh what do you think about there and rand just came from the 49ers that's that's actually interesting as well um second round pick okay yeah i would say a smattering of day two picks then you know obviously yeah like you said the sunk

cost of not getting that first rounder backs but yeah probably a smattering of day two picks which is worth the four eight nineers are living at these days apparently So if I'm a team that is in a position like the Niners potentially are, Rand Carthin knows all about Trey Lance, right? So you can connect the dots there. And I don't know if he likes Trey Lance, but if you wanted to do that. I think that drafting a quarterback,

and we'll get to them a little bit later on the show, what the Falcons did with Desmond Ritter, where you can use a third round pick on a quarterback, and it allows you to kind of play it out on your own timeline. If it took a third and a fifth to trade for Trey Lance, it doesn't need to work out. You're essentially taking like a free dice rule. So I wonder if a team just tries to do something like that,

a team that strikes out elsewhere and doesn't have any other low-risk, high-reward options or a young option. Do they try to get Trey Lance for a price like that? And would the Niners say yes? Are they in a position where they know he's not going to be their quarterback? They don't have a ton of excess draft capital. And maybe it takes it to two, but is a team willing to give that up? I don't know.

I haven't seen enough of him to not like him, but the Niners see him all the time. And they're like, yeah. And they're taking Brock Purdy over him. So I think that could be an important piece of data to take away as well. What did Carolina give up for Sand Arnold? That's a second and a fourth, I think. Yeah, we're starting there. I mean, yeah.

That's a good point. If on the Niners, I'm not taking anything less than the second and a fourth that they paid the straight of San Donald. Sam proved he's not able to do this. At least Trey Lancis still has that, you know, capital P word of potential that like he hasn't been ruined yet. So, man, it's just so crazy to me. A year ago we're talking about, you talked to, uh, use check and we're just talking about this, how much easier is to make those explosive plays and, you know, make it easier on the offense coordinator and a play collar just stringed together a couple huge chunk

plays instead of string together a bunch of five, four, six yard gains. And then you watch this far and Ires offense and they're like, well, we could call the exact same plays, but then just have really good skill guys. And those, what used to be five-yard gains are now 30-yard gains and 50-yard gains. and 50-yard gains. So they, like, created those explosive plays by just having really good players. As opposed to having the quarterback create those big explosive plays. So it's kind of funny that they found the equation, just found it differently than they usually did.

The team, I think actually, it would be really interesting. And I would have a feeling that they wouldn't want him in terms of the type of quarterback that he is. But teams that are kind of backed into a corner and finding their next guy, if you're Minnesota. Yeah. And you trade out of the first round this year. Okay? You pick up an extra two in doing that. And then you have a four that you got in the Vikings trade, right, in the Lions trade.

You gave a beer two. You got there four. Does that make sense? Vikings definitely, yeah. Some team like that. I mean, Trey Lance is still younger than Hendon Hooker. He's a lot younger than Hendon Hooker. Yeah.

That's only 22. He's only 22. I mean, he's dead. I mean, in team like the Bucks. Yeah, teams like that that are just kind of in and backed into a position where they're in no one's man.

The Titans probably aren't the best example because they used the third round picking a quarterback last year and the Titans legitimately could be the worst team in the NFL this season and they could be in a position to draft a guy next year. That's why, by the way, that there's rumors of them moving up

trying to move out for a quarterback. I'm like, what are you doing? What are you doing? Well, we can talk. They're a team that I want to talk about with the questions we're going to answer later. Okay, all right. Kat, let's get to our next voicemail here.

Hey, Robert, Nate. My name is Jared. I am a fan of the Detroit Lions. So we've been thinking a lot about the quarterback and the quarterback position, especially with this draft here. It got me thinking about two different teams. One, the New York Jets who have traded up to the top five and swung and missed on quarterbacks on top five of the draft twice in the last five years.

And so they are in desperate need of a veteran quarterback versus the Colts who have taken the exact opposite route and not drafted a quarterback, but had got stuck on a veteran quarterback carousel. So I'm curious, when you guys think it's appropriate to make that swing and take a top five quarterback versus, oh, we need to go with the free agent route or get a veteran quarterback that way? So the way that I saw this is that all those teams who, I don't think it's an either-or proposition, I actually think one causes the other.

Okay, so think about all the teams that needed to go make a move for that veteran quarterback. The Rams, the Bucks with Tom Brady, Russell Wilson with the Broncos, and even the Colts to a certain extent, and now the Jets. They've only needed to do that because they tried to go the high pick route or high-ish pick, and it didn't work out. And with the Rams, you know, Jared Gough just runs its course. It's not that he fail, but you're like, we have run out of road here. We need to upgrade. Okay. the bucks you draft jamis no dice

Titans are another really good I was just that was the last way Same draft they good J draft Marcus Marioada doesn't work out We need an off ramp here They did it I think as beautifully as anyone does Has had to do it You know with Brian Tannel

The second pick they got that trade Because they got a pick with Tannenhill That was like a four Oh was it? That's really funny Nailed it Hopefully that GM sells a job So the Broncos miss on Drew Locke, and they have to go trade for Russell Wilson. They literally trade Drew Locke to get Russell Wilson.

The Colts have Andrew Luck, right? So there's just didn't work out in that way. So that's why they had to get on the quarterback carousel. And then the Jets swing and miss on Jack Wilson. So that's why they're there now. So I think this is because you don't have an alternative in the top five of a draft. And that's why you're in this place. And that's why the Lions are, it's a little bit of a.

a different conversation, I think eventually they will have to do the dismount. Eventually, I think you are going to run out of road with Jared Gough, and that's not an indictment of Jared Gough. It's just a statement on how hard it is to do what the Niners consistently do and why we're so in awe of what that formula looks like year in and year out. So it's just a matter of when you decide to do it. And I just, it'll depend on who's there, but like if Anthony Richardson somehow is there and you like him now feels like the natural time to do it.

But I think it's looking more and more likely that he's probably not going to be there. So you just take the best player available. Yeah. Yeah. I kind of get their decision made for them a little bit. I really think that how I originally answered this question in my mind was how you lose your last game usually brings clarity to what you want at the QB position. It's generally it's how you lost in the playoffs, whether it's Jared golf against the package. And it was like they couldn't complete a ball.

They couldn't any gain running ball or passing the ball past five yards. I mean, remember that slog that 2020 ran off. I was there. It was pretty gross. Yeah. Oh my God. And they had such a fun defense. And so like that was, you know, that was like that's always in my mind.

You know, the Colts when they went even went after the luck stuff, they went on this QB carousels because they thought the rest of the roster just needed that kind of like, little cherry on top to like kind of lift them up. Didn't really work out for them. The Jets just started at zero with Darnold and then restarted at zero. There's nothing. They were so bad that they could start the whole thing over again. There's nothing.

There's no more sunk cost than a bad top-end rookie quarterback or a highly drafted rookie quarterback because the opportunity costs, the reps you're giving them. I mean, so if you miss on that pick, it's devastating. You miss on a receiver early. We can hodgepodge this together. You miss on a guard. You miss on a tackle, defense a tackle. Okay, well, we can make it.

Okay, he's only playing 20 reps, you know, supposed to 40 or 50. Quarterbacks out there every single play and throwing the ball all those plays. So it's kind of an Occam's razor a little bit. Like everyone's got kind of their breaking point. And so it's like you're going to have to take the punch sometimes. I mean, shoot, the chief's moving up from Alex Smith to get homes. You know, they finally were like, hey, this is the end of the road with Alex Smith. So we got to upgrade this position.

So everyone kind of, whatever that last loss is kind of leads you to that decision. shoot. Just talked about Foreign Irish with Jimmy G and then Trey Lance you know they were just like

ah you know like okay we don't really like losing this way and yes other things happened but I think that's exactly what leads them

to this decision making if they do want to take a swing on the guy Texans with Brock Osweller remember they whipped out on him and then they're right get rid of him package him so we can get some

cap space and then we trade up for Deshawn so it's like just everybody when those last losses and when they reach the end point that's when usually they have to make this decision it's kind of it is interesting though

it's about when you see the end of the road. Dismounts, I like your term dismount. That's it. And I thought that the Lions may be in a position to do that this off season, but there's an argument that they were too good on offense last year with golf that I don't think they feel the same sort of urgency or the walls closing in quite like I thought they might.

But I still think if they were being totally honest with themselves, okay, the number three pick is there for the taking. You can call the Cardinals right now. I don't think there's a ton preventing you from doing it. You're at six now. You have an extra second round pick. You have two first round picks. They are in a position if they wanted to to go get it right now.

And get one of those three guys if you don't like Levis and if you do like the three guys. I hate having to do this every single time. This is all predicated on whether you like the guy. You have to like the guy. But if you like the guy, if that's the precursor to this, it's there. You could do this. You could do the dismount a year earlier than you have to.

The walls don't have to be closing in. You don't have, whatever fucking mixed metaphor you want to use. You don't have to get to the dead end, the end of the road. You can get there a year early if you want to. And I think the Lions are a playoff team this year probably. I think their offense was really good last season with Jared Goff. But I think self-awareness in this moment is extremely important. It's probably never going to be as good.

as it's been over the last couple of years. Ben Johnson's going to get hired away, all these different factors that could play into it. And so those changing factors, I think, would lead you to believe that the dismount is going to be necessary at some point. Why not take it when we're in the best position to take it?

Yes. Why not take it when we actually have easy answers to find it? Easier answers to find it. Why not do it now and rip the Band-Aid off now or make that push now? Yeah. How you spell it out, too, especially the number three pick being the, Cardinals who already have a quarterback and are looking for assets to just rebuild this terrible

roster they have. It's like there's just a lot of stars aligning for that move. So it makes sense. Yeah, like you said, do it a year earlier than maybe they would have to originally. I wanted to acknowledge the question we got from Mason D.Rville, which is kind of a similar conversation than one that we're having here. His was about trading back to acquire future assets to potentially tap into a future quarterback draft. Right.

So he said, am I take, am I crazy for. thinking this is extremely risky and not sound logic. Throw the bears out there because they're in a slightly different situation. But just look at the lions and Seahawks. If their internal plan is to take a quarterback in the next two years, wouldn't it be a much safer and sounder option to make a move from one of the guys this year? If you trade out of the top five or six to make a move next year, in my mind, you're gambling

on two things. One, that situations don't change, no injuries happen and these top guys continue to look apart. Two, that teams in a position to take those guys will even be interested in moving back for any cost. In the 2020 draft, there was a report The Dolphins offered the Bengals all three 2020 first round picks, including five,

and the Bengals didn't even entertain it. So it's a worthwhile conversation. And I think the Bears are particularly, I think the Bears are positioned to do this very well because I don't know if those teams moving back are getting an extra one from somebody. You know, maybe they do from somebody coming up for the quarterback, but the Bears potentially could have

the 10th and 11th picks in the draft next year. And you would hope that, I was almost going to go through this exercise, but for me it was too much work, what the top five could look like next year and which of those teams could or could not need quarterbacks. The Cardinals likely don't need a quarterback. The Texans likely don't need a quarterback. So I would hope that let's say Quineers becomes that third guy in this conversation, that somewhere in the top three, there is a team that is not going to need a quarterback. And typically that does happen. Very rarely do is that one, two, three fall the way that it does.

Happen with two teams this year. Yes. And two teams end up needing to draft the quarterback. So I think as long as you position yourself where you have the ammunition where you know you can go up to do it, then you're probably in a decent spot. But I do agree with Mason here that it is a little bit riskier than I think some people make it out to be. Yes. Especially when you're already in a position to do it like the lions are.

And you already have done the process and have the assets to do it. Yeah, it is risky. I can say all I want. Oh, Drake May and Caleb Williams, who I do think are very, very good and talented players. you never know. Drake May lost his offense coordinator. Does the new offense make them look like shit? And it's like, whoa, what was I thinking?

Does Caleb Williams have another injury crop up? Does this kind of style? And it's like, oh, man, the size concerns. Maybe that's something we glossed before. You never know what weaknesses crop up. Sam Howell, a year before last year's draft. So it was projected as a top five guy by just about everybody. Everyone's like, oh, Sam Howell, did you see him throwing launch of those bombs?

According to Washington, he still is. Yes, yes, that's exactly. It's their canon, their head canon, draft capital, not even the actual draft capital. But that's the thing is that you're already through this process and it's the one in the hand, two in the bush. You know, that's really what this comes down to. And that's why I always think just accumulating those resources gives you the pivot points. And that's the term I always use.

Capspace, talent, draft picks. That's all you're doing. You're just giving yourself ingredients to make a few different meal ideas. Because sometimes grilling chicken sounds really good. It sounds really good tomorrow night. right. But then tomorrow, it's the next day, and you're like, no, I'm going to order takeout. I don't want a grilled chicken. It just doesn't sound good tomorrow. You never know how things are going to change. And I think that's exactly why it is risky to assume these things.

These next two are linked in my mind. So let's start with the first one here. Joe Bernstein says, this sounds dumb. But given that on average, only 31% of first round picks sign a second contract with their team, would it make sense if you're drafting outside of the top five or 10 to focus on trying to accrue a larger total volume of picks within the top 50 to 70 as possible, even if that means having zero first round picks. I said, I mean, if you can, that's ideal. Sometimes it's not the worst thing to kind of play your foot, pull the trigger and take a guy. But no, I understand.

I think maybe in a draft like this that has not a ton of talent and also just a lot of guys in between basically slotted between 15 and 60 that are kind of interchangeable eye of the behold or whatever term you want to say and so I think that makes sense in that aspect but I get it I'm just saying oh man I don't even know what I'm saying I just saying that sometimes there's opportunity yes that does make a lot of sense and then sometimes it's just no just take a freaking guy because you like the guy it's just all it could be circumstantial it depends on the draft too some drafts are loaded the 2021 draft all the talent in that draft it's like well I don't really want to trade out 12 and get keep kicking back because of all these other what it's interesting that you say

12, okay? Because this happened last year. The Vikings did this. Vikings, that's right. And they went back. The Vikings had the 12th overall pick in last year's draft. They traded it to the Lions for 32, 44, and 66. That's right. And they gave 46 to the Lions as part of this trade. And people freaked the fuck out. They were like, what are the Vikings doing? This is a trade made on a more modern trade value chart. That's what this is. Richard Thaler was part of the study. They did it probably a decade ago.

He's at the University of Chicago about how teams overvalue picks at the top of the draft. That is still true. If you look at the Jimmy Johnson chart compared to even like the Spielberger Fitzgerald chart or the charts that the teams use, I think,

are probably even more so to this extent, is that the difference between the 12th overall pick and the 30th overall pick is not nearly as big as you think it is. So I think that it absolutely would behoove more teams to just get two second round picks instead of a first round pick or a future second round pick as part of moving back. This is good.

It absolutely is worth doing this over and over and over again. The problem is, I think, a couple different things. It requires you take on some risk if you do that because you're not picking in the first round. I think there's a public relations hit to be taken. You have to answer for it exactly what the Vikings had to do last year. And a lot of general managers or team builders in general are not. in a position to operate this way. Right. Because you have to win. It's not about just accumulating

future value. You have to make your team better in the short term in order to keep your job. Howie Roseman operating the way that he does where he can just kind of keep doing this and keep trying to accue value in future years. It's like fourth rebuild. Yeah. He has job security that some people do not have. So not every team is operating on the same time. I think that's also important to understand. Well, that's why, you know, the Patriot model quote unquote was always, well, they're always picking into 20s. And everyone's like, well, you know, trade back. They go, yeah, Belichick can do whatever he wants.

He has Carpalosh to do whatever he wants. So he can just do that. And not a lot of guys, they're just like, no, our windows open now. We're at pick 29. We came so close last year. We got to get another guy right now because if we trade back to kick it to kick the can to next year, like you said, the PR hits something you have to answer for. And that's what the Vikings had to go for the most.

And then I'm just going to bring up the one last risk because I do agree with that. It's having more. There's usually only about a dozen, 10 to 15, true first round grade. in a class. So once you get past that point, yeah, it's all just squint and finding the guy that you like is that the risk of that is too is that they quote unquote gave up Cal Hamilton that they might have taken there and he took Lewis Seen. And that's fine in a spectrum that they thought they were tiered the same.

But this is I'm just bringing up and I'm not saying that they were wrong in doing this. This is the negative of that is that Hamilton had a nice rookie season and seen with, you know, battled injuries and everything. So that's the other tradeoff too is just even if you think that they're tiered, it might not shake out that way. We have a few other good questions. We're running out of time, though. The one I did want to get to.

Stefan from Germany says, I'm from Germany and relatively new to football, so your podcast really helps. Thank you. You're welcome. Thank you for listening. He said, John Boyce made me a Falcons fan,

which is hilarious. So I was wondering, which rebuild between the Panthers and the Falcons? Do you like more? Is it better to build up a strong roster and then look for a quarterback or do you need to go after a quarterback as soon as possible?

This is a very simple question, but one that I really like. I've got you through this end because this actually, this cooked my noodle a little bit. I don't, I really don't know. I think building up the roster and dropping the quarterback in is the ideal situation. Ideal, yes.

If you are afforded that time and afforded that path, I do think that is ideal. And I think the fact that the Falcons and Arthur Blank have afforded Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenow that path is a nice little bit of luck. It's a nice little thing that's happened for them. They actually, by taking those jobs where they are in such dire straits, cap-wise and rebuilding the whole team moving off, it actually helped them give more time. As long as they got promised that from Arthur Blank, he didn't come in and go, whoa, we got to win 10 games next year.

What do you guys talking about? They were in such a tough situation. It gave them more space to do this. You mean, unlike the team in Carolina, where they went out and signed Teddy Bridgewater immediately because they're like, we got to be good right away. That's, so my answer to this was, It's funny because the Panthers didn't really act like they're in a rebuild.

They kind of just trickled their way into a rebuild or reshuffle, I should say, a revamp. And then they became a mid-tier team. They just decided to take the dip and finally do this now. It's kind of funny. There was an inadvertent rebuild that they did. Now they have a good roster. Look at that. I don't think you have to go one way or the other.

Like, because I don't think the Panthers started from square one, right? They're not dropping a quarterback into a really bad situation. So I think this is another. example of just knowing when is the time to go get it. And I think that the Panthers, I don't know if this was ideally the right time. Like you're going from nine. You have to give up a ton to go get that guy. You have to trade your number one receiver in the process.

And you now have less draft capital to build around a guy. Let's say it's CJ Stroud. You don't think his ceiling is quite as high as an Anthony Richardson. Now you have fewer assets to build up that guy on the rookie quarterback contract than you would have otherwise the way that like the Eagles could build around J.1. hurts, for example. But at the same time, they still knew we have to go do this at some point, right? Like eventually we have to try to figure this out. We can't get back on the quarterback carousel that we've been on, the one that Frank Reich and that we have done consistently over the

years. At some point, you want to get off that thing. So I don't think it has to be at the beginning or the end. I think that there has to be the point where you understand this is the right time for us to do this. Well, and that's why it's interesting, too, even with the Falcons with Ritter in their decision with that is that they kind of they found a half measure that actually makes sense because it's like okay we think he's going to be competent enough to make everyone else kind of we know what we're getting I guess is a good way to put it and then we can decide okay no we got to go full measure and get a guy in the top five or they just go oh actually this worked out cool we fell into that it's again I'm just saying that like but they're another one

of those teams pardon they could run into an issue doing this yes yes it is very possible that going to be like nine to eight this year and be like, God, Desmond's okay. But we probably need more out of this. And potentially they don't have a path to do it. Yep, because I'm now stuck in the middle ground of the NFL, which is. And what we talked about, though, is that how many of those teams had to make the big moves up to the top 10? I love the like, you broke it down all the guys, the Josh Allen trade, Mahomes, Deshaun, like all those guys teams moved up big time for them. But then again, that takes comfort level and doing that because you have to be really trust the rest of your

situation that it's going to work out because again there's no more opportunity costs than investing in a young quarterback and then he sucks because then you're fired so whenever you rip that ban it off and plant your foot get north whatever idiom you want to use it's like that you have to have a lot of self-awareness of where you're at and that's what's interesting with these teams so answering the question yes i think ideally in a vacuum i would do it like the falcons did where i could focus on building up everything around the guy and the quarterback could be the last piece of the puzzle where we drop him in. This is what the chiefs did.

Okay. This is exactly what the chiefs did where it's like, okay, this is it. I think the bills, even though they traded up for the guy, they kind of did it at the beginning. Yeah. So I think that there are ways to do it. I have no problems with the way that the Panthers did it. And I think this was a chance to really make sure that you didn't fall into that quarterback purgatory any longer.

But in an ideal world, I would do it the way that the Falcons did to answer his question. Yeah, I would too. The other comparison that I had close to this is when the Vikings took, I've made so many reference to this that it's actually a lot of fun. Vikings took Dante Colpepper in 1999. They got to sit the year, but they did that. They had an extra first round pick, but they had such a good roster around them, offensive line and the receivers and everybody that they were able to sit Dante and get that

quarterback of the future. They kind of had that perfect circumstances for it. It was almost, it's kind of similar with the Alex Smith kind of, Mahomes kind of thing as well, but that's another comparison where this worked out. in the end. But short answer, if I'm just picking one, I would agree with you where I say I would do what the Falcons are doing. But it's, it's hard to have that time and that patience and that self-awareness to do it. All right. That's all we got. Really appreciate all the questions that you guys sent along. These are very fun to do. We should do them more. We should just do more of them because they always

inspire interesting conversation. They always get us going. So thank you to everyone who took the time to send in a question. I'm sorry we couldn't get to all of them. If it were up to me, we would do 200 of these. Unfortunately, we cannot. So really appreciate you guys doing that. We will be back on Monday. Hopefully with our friend, Dane Bruegler.

I think we're going to do some receivers from Monday. Excited to talk to you guys about it. As a reminder, that three-man group is going to be coming to you at our live draft show in Kansas City, rounds one and two and three, Thursday and Friday night. We're going to be having live shows.

coming your way on our YouTube channel. Really, really excited about it. We got some bells and whistles that we have not had in years past, really doing it up compared to what we have done in years past. So please be on the lookout for that. Mark it in your calendars. Be ready for it. Speaking of the YouTube channel, Nate today kicked off his new quarterback series

with this year's quarterbacks with a breakdown of C.J. Stroud. 10 minutes of strengths, weaknesses, fits, all that good stuff. We're going to be doing with all four of. of the top guys. We're going to have some more prospect-specific draft videos coming over the next month with some of our other draft staff at the Athletic. So now is the time. If you have not subscribed to liked, been involved with the YouTube channel, now is the time

because we're going to be doing all that stuff and then the draft show is going to be happening on YouTube. So if you have not engaged with our YouTube channel up to this point, please go do that. The link to that is in the description of this podcast. With all 22 clips as well. With all 22 clips. So we got real breakdowns of these guys, very excited to kind of kick off and introduce the next phase and the newest phase of what we're doing in the YouTube space. So excited for you guys to check that out.

In the meantime, phase three of the athletic football show universe. That's what we're at right now. Listen, no one asked us to do any of this. I know. We're a masochist. All right. As always, guys, we really appreciate you listening. We'll be back on Monday with Dane.

Enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you soon. This was the athletic football show.