The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Mailbag with Mitchell Schwartz: Long-term deals for mobile QBs, Justin Herbert's status, CMC trade impact, and more

Episode Date: December 14, 2022

Letters and mailbags are all the rage in December, right? Well, let's take a peek inside The Athletic Football Show's mailbag then! Mitchell Schwartz joins Robert Mays to answer questions on long-term contracts for mobile quarterbacks, Justin Herbert's status in the league, the impact of the Christian McCaffrey trade, and more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Mitch on Twitter: @MitchSchwartz71Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube3:45 Long-term contracts for moblie QBs19:57 Justin Herbert and quarterback tiers37:14 Impact of the Christian McCaffrey trade48:24 Offensive linemen and trick plays54:48 Steelers OC options if they move on from Matt Canada64:24 How many backups are capable of pulling a Mike White?67:29 Should the Lions just stick with Jared Goff? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. That's my good friend Mitchell Schwartz. Mitch, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing good. How are you?

I'm doing well. I should intro you in a different way than I intro Nate, considering you're like a multiple-time all-pro offensive lineman who's won a Super Bowl and he's not. I think you got the right intro. People always talk about that it's soothing to them. People always talk about like five people on Twitter have mentioned this

over the last like five years. Instead, it's soothing to them. And that makes me happy because it's literally the only way I can intro the show. I just don't know any other way to do it. And I'm not flexible or talented enough to figure out a different way. So the fact that it works is a big win for me. Yeah, it's like hitting a golf ball or hitting a baseball. Like if you shut your brain off and you just do what's smooth and what feels right,

you'll probably have a bit more success. So I think that's the way you got to start the show. Just get into your element and loose and flowy and see how far you can hit it. There is nothing smooth or flowy about my golf game or my golf. When I golf, there's nothing smoother flowy about the experience. We've tried to golf together, but never have, just based on schedules and a lot of other stuff. And you've gotten to escape what it's like to golf with me for four hours because I get very upset with myself over the course of the entire thing. So we'll get there eventually.

No surprise. You'll see how much self-loathing goes into that process. All right. We're doing a mailbag today. It's a week 14. It's the middle of December. We haven't done one all a year. Just felt like it was time to grab some questions from you guys

and do our best to answer some things that might have been lingering as the seasons kept going here. And I wanted to start with one that has become particularly relevant after Kyler Murray's injury last night, which I do want to get into here. So John Tracy asked, with the Russell Wilson trade contract looking worse by the day and the Ravens dragging their feet on the Mars extension, do you think smart GMs might be less likely to lock up mobile quarterback for long term deals moving forward. Seems like simple Matt to me. The average running back plays for three years. Quarterbacks can play into their mid-40s. Mobile quarterbacks are a hybrid of those two positions,

so maybe eight to ten-year extensions aren't a great idea. I think this is, again, particularly relevant after what we just saw happen with Coward Murray. So before we dig into the Kyle or part of this conversation, just on a general level, what do you think about this and committing long-term financial resources to these quarterbacks who use their legs and inevitably get hit more than a Tom Brady guys in that mold? I think there is some merit. to it for sure. But the difference is Wilson is on what is third or fourth contract at this point? Yeah, his second and third contracts weren't bad. I mean, the Russell Wilson example is he actually was a very good player for those second and third deals that he got. Right. So I think where you'd look to

see the differences, once they get maybe into the 2930, 31 range, are they still running? I mean, most guys tend to back off the running a little bit. It's more strategic. I mean, even a guy like Cam Newton, who's just a sledgehammer, like eventually, you know, you stop running quite as much. Like, you don't go into a game saying, yeah, we're going to run quarterback power 18 times. Like, maybe that pairs down to 10 or 8 or whatever. So I think you're smarter with the threat of the legs as they get older. And I think in general, this quarterback cycle and the extensions handed out is going to make GMs pause just a little bit more. Because, I mean, the price isn't going up like that much when you really think about it.

like, okay, you wait one year and you pay 51 million a year instead of 48 million. Is that that big of a difference to like fully make sure that that guy is the absolute, you know, franchise leader? No, that's nothing. Like, especially in the quarterback room where that is the most important position in the building and the most important, you know, piece of the salary cap. So I think teams will be a little more judicious with it. To the original question, I think once you get into, you know, 29, 30, 31, you're starting

to evaluate, does this guy use his legs in the same? same way that he used to. Not too dissimilar from, I mean, switching sports, but baseball. Those guys get to the free agency so late because of the minor leagues, because of the six years, that you're paying for past performance a lot more than future performance. And I think, you know, the football mindset of am I paying for past performance with a mobile quarterback or am I paying for future performance and factoring how those legs are going to play into the equation is going to be really smart for them and something that they absolutely need

to consider because it's so easy to say. yeah, he's done it this way for seven years. He'll just continue to do it that way. But we know that that's not necessarily how it's going to play out. It's funny because there aren't that many examples of this. There's not a huge history to draw from when it comes to guys who are going to move this off and run this much and have gotten paid. Really, the only two examples over the last decade or so are Cam and Russell Wilson. I mean, that's really it. There aren't that many guys who have been mobile and have had to deal with the second contract conversation.

Obviously, Kyler just got there. Lamar is, it's happening in real time. So Cam's is probably the most instructive. And that extension that he signed kicked in after the year that he won the MVP. And if you look at his numbers after that season, I mean, especially as a passer, they're not very good. I mean, the best QBR he had after that 2015 season was 53.2, which was in 2018. So obviously outside of, you know, he's running the ball over those. first five years of his career over a hundred times a season. 126, 127, 111, 113, 132 are the first five years,

including his MVP season. Russell Wilson is really the only other guy who's gotten a big extension that was in that same general realm. The first three or four years of his career, he was around there and then tailed off a tiny little bit. So obviously, Lamar is even higher than that, but he's really the only guy outside of Kyler that he's either gotten a recent one or is going to get one. So there just aren't a lot of data points. And with Cam, you're combining all of that rushing with all of the hits that he took. He was 15th in the league between 2011, 2011, 2015, in the amount of hits he took in the pocket, which is 323, and 185 sacks, which is third over that five-year stretch.

I mean, just the pure amount of damage to his body combined with the rushing. It's hard to figure out how much is him just getting the shit kicked out of him in the pocket because of how they played, how much is the rushing? because clearly there was enough of a physical toll on his body where it ultimately made a difference. And personally, selfishly, when I'm thinking about Justin Fields and what his career and his future might look like, that's the guy that I have in mind. So I don't know how GMs are going to treat it because, again, we just don't have that many examples from the past 10 years even about guys who played like this gotten paid and what the downstream effects have looked like. Yeah.

And to me, the interesting point with most of these is they don't get. get hurt doing something dumb? Like as much as Josh Allen runs into a bunch of people, as much as Lamar runs the ball, Kyler, you know, Kyler gets hurt on a scramble. He doesn't get touched, like his knee just buckles and presumably tears his ACL. Josh Allen, the UCL, I mean, that's a very normal. He's a lot of course. Okay. Yeah. So, Tor's ACL. Josh Allen, the UCL thing, like a normal, just trying to throw a pass from the pocket. Like most of these guys get hurt doing normal quarterback stuff. The question is always, you know, has the physicality taken a toll to where a, quote, unquote, more normal play, you know, has a bigger effect when you're in the pocket. That is something

to be maybe studied or looked at. But yeah, it's, Cam's is more the shoulder. Like, he's stopping able to throw the ball. And so, you know, I think the comparison of him to fields and just like the pure kind of physicality and the way they can run the ball is a good one. But I still think, like, for a second contract. I think you can kind of bank on like that seven to eight year window where you've got a guy for three years. You re-sign him, you know, say three to four year extension. He had two years left. And so you're kind of looking at that seven to nine year window, usually able to get out of it after three or four years. I think you're fairly certain because if a guy gets hurt, you know, injuries aren't the end of the world. They'll come back. They'll be pretty successful. Maybe that makes them play

more of that hybrid role where they were running 12 times a game and taking eight tackles. And now they're running the ball eight times a game and taking two tackles. and they're smarter about sliding or getting down. I think it'll take either a shoulder injury, which is the worst case scenario for quarterbacks, or some drastic loss of athleticism, which, again, gets into my point of, like, getting on the other side of 30 when you start to go on the backside

of the physical peak. Those are the things that worry you, because a guy like Russell Wilson, he used to run that zone read all the time. It was really effective, and they got tons of first downs, and then in the passing game he was able to scramble, throw on the run, pick up first downs. It seemed like there was a point that Seattle ran zone read, but he never pulled the ball anymore.

And there was like a four-year window where teams still thought he was a threat to pull the ball. And he just never did. I don't even think it was a read. I think they made it look like reads, but I don't think that there's really any possibility. So you can kind of play up that ability to run the ball a little bit if you're smart about it. Like if you think of Baltimore, I mean, just the threat of Lamar running, even, you know, if he's not going to actually run, they'll still probably get another year or two out of that threat until teams realize like, all right, maybe he's not quite as athletic as he used to be. And maybe we should just like force him to beat us. And if he does, we'll adjust. But I thought, I mean, earlier this year, to me, Lamar looked different running the ball. I think it was the Miami game. He broke through. I think he scored the touchdown, like an 80 yard run or something. But like the long speed didn't look the same. His running strides, the ability to like open it up. And, it just didn't quite look the same to me and I don't know if you know you never know if these guys

have a little groin thing or something else but to me like his pure long speed did not like is the same as it did his first couple years so I don't know if you know signs of decline there already and now he's starting to get other injuries yeah it's interesting for Baltimore you know I still think they'll commit to him and they'll commit to him for three or four years and again if his athleticism drops off to where he's not like peak Lamar one he's still super quick super fast. Like he's still on the top tier of guys who are athletic. He's 25 years old.

Even if they give him a four-year extension, he's going to be a free agent again at 30. So that one I'm not really worried about. Say he only has two years where he's like even 80% of Lamar. Well, again, those last two years, you can still fake teams into thinking that it's peak Lamar and you can still do a lot of fun stuff. It gets into that third contract where now is 2930 and who knows what the injury history or the success will look like where you really start to worry. So I think teams will be smarter about it with running quarterbacks, figuring out, you know, what the future looks like mapping out, you know, a guy like Mahomes, I think you can comfortably say like he'll still be slinging in at 37, 38, 38, 38, in terms of length.

But I think you can dream on a guy like that and say he'll be here at 38 still being just as good as he was, where these other guys, I think you do have to worry about what it looks like when there's a dip in athleticism, when there's a dip in what they can do, you know, kind of outside the pocket and in structured runs. The other consideration with Kyler, obviously, is the size on top of the athleticism and the running and the mobility. So obviously, this is an outlier. He's never had a season-ending injury like this before. It's a torn ACL, but he's had lingering injuries. You know, last year he had the ankle where he missed a couple games. This year, he's already missed a couple games with a thigh and a hamstring. And even in season where he's played all 16 games or played 16 games like 2020, you know, some of those lingering things that piled up over the course of the year,

they haven't really played well in the second half of the season. So, I mean, the Cardinals are now in a spot where their starting quarterback that they just gave a massive extension to is going to be coming back off a torn ACL. We don't know who the coach is. We don't know who the GM is. This is the last thing they needed when you consider how badly everything else had gone over the first two-thirds of this season. Well, we know who they're paying, and the answer is everybody. Yeah. Just decided to pay everybody.

Yeah, it's interesting, again, contrasting to Denver, where you look at Denver, gave up a bunch of picks, paid Russ all this money, head coach, you know, some people want them fired, whatever. But Arizona might be in a worse overall situation because, like, they went into this team building phase and they started handing out contracts to a bunch of guys, you know, the roster they're paying some of the older guys. They commit to the quarterback, the head coach, and the GM. And I think two of those are going to be gone and the quarterback will be left standing. and then, you know, a new guy's going to come in. He's going to get a partial season at best of Kyler Murray, who's not going to be 100% from an ACL injury. And so you're not even going to be able to see kind of the full effect of what that offense can look like.

And, you know, maybe it's a 3-and-14 season because they're used that season as kind of a reset salary cap-wise. But, yeah, it's going to get pretty ugly there. And they're going to have to almost do like a one-year mini-terdown, you know, bring it down to the studs and see if they can, you know, find one of these offensive coaches. to be able to marry, again, what Kyler likes to do, what he does best, and then how to use that athleticism and that speed to the team's advantage. Because he's dynamic when he can do those things. But I think we've seen that, you know, I'm not going to say Colt McCoy plays the offense better,

but we're seeing it with him. We're seeing it with Mike White a little bit that even Gino Smith, like if you just do the things that are asked of you in the offense and you kind of make easy look easy, like I think they said about Mike White, like if you've got even a decent play caller, like the office. Offense should look pretty, pretty good. So finding that right play collar that meshes with Kyler and that allows him to kind of do the easy things and make that offense look efficient. And then figuring out ways to sprinkle on his athleticism and his ability to make some magic happen, you know, outside the pocket and on the move, I think is going to be step number one for that organization.

Doing a mini tear down around a quarterback on a massive extension. We just don't see that very often. What else can they do? I think they have to do it. I mean, I don't think they have a choice. I think they absolutely have to nuke it and then figure out what the next stage looks like. But Kyler Murray next season has a – so next season's at $16 million, okay, which I think Bleet would have been the last season on his rookie deal.

Josh Allen's almost in the exact same spot when he look at his extension. But then in 2024, which would be the first year coming out of that nuked rebuild, he has a $52 million cap hit in 2024, which is a $12 million. dollar cap hit in 2024, which is going to be their first, like, build it back up here. It's just such a unique team building challenge because most of the guys who get these sort of extensions, you're in your contending window because the guys that get them are Mahomes or Josh Allen, you know, obviously the Deshaun Watson conversation is very different

than this, but those are the guys that typically are paid like this. And you're an 11 win team, you're a 10 win team, you're trying to figure out little tiny tweaks within a certain margin. If you're the chiefs, you think, okay, we're paying our quarterback all this money now, and Tyreek's going to be 30, and do we want to give him a third contract, or do we want to kind of hit a mini reset

and trade him for some picks and get younger on defense? But that mini reset is where you say, all right, well, we're going to take a small step back on offense theoretically and put a lot on our quarterback. We're still going to be in contention to be the number one seat in the AFC. There aren't these wild swings roster-wise, typically when you have a quarterback like this. And that's why you can go all the way back to, was he a quarterback worth paying that sort of money?

And I don't want to pile on after he just suffered a devastating injury. But it speaks to the challenges that the Cardinals are going to have to face here over the next two years. Yeah, it does. And I know we'll get to some other quarterback-related discussions later. We're about to get there. But this is the crux of the discussion because there isn't really that, you know, mid tier of quarterbacks. Like, you're in the next guy up.

You get paid a market setting deal, and that's how it goes. Like, right now it's $48 to $50 million for the top quarterbacks. There aren't a bunch of quarterbacks in the 30 to 35 range. Like, you're either- Well, I'll be curious if that changes because the extension that cousins just got. I think that's the change. Yeah, I think that's going to be the change that teams are going to be more adamant that, like, hey, we're not going to pay you.

Like, we have the franchise tag. We can hold your rights for a while. if you just don't want to play football, that's fine. But like, we don't see you as the best quarterback or a top five guy in the NFL. Like, you're a guy that can be a good piece if you've got a good roster. But at 50 million a year, you're not good enough to raise everyone's game to warrant being, you know, that 20% or whatever it is of the salary cap. And that's where all my discussions of what a quarterback can do, what he's worth come from. Like, are you good enough to warrant that market setting contract?

And I think for Kyler, there were a ton of questions. on that when he first signed it. Now, injuries obviously make that look even worse, which is unfortunate because you don't want to see that happen. But, you know, that's the discussion is, can you elevate a roster around you when you are by far the highest paid guy? And you can just straight up math, you can't pay everyone around you quite as much money. He's at 46 a year, which is more than Mahomes, more than Josh Allen.

Like you said, he was just the next guy up so they gave him that market setting contract. and I don't know that they needed to do it. And now this is where the Cardinals are at. Speaking of market setting quarterback contracts, next question here. Guilty is charged podcast on Twitter says, is Mitch ready to admit that he was wrong about Justin Herbert? The reason that I put this in here is so we can get into a larger discussion about the top tier of quarterbacks in the NFL.

You and I were talking about this offline yesterday. I think it's a worthwhile conversation. So let's do this. What is your Justin? Herbert's stance for people that are unrelated, and how can that kind of lead us into a broader conversation here? My Herbert stance is that he's a really good quarterback with the potential to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

I think this offseason, you know, you were beating the drum pretty heavily, but you weren't alone. There were a lot of people, at least on my timeline on social media, who basically said, it's Mahomes, it's Alan, it's Herbert. Those are our top three. and, you know, Rogers and Brady were in the older group, but like, these are our top three. This is how the future is going to look at quarterback. And I thought that was premature. You know, I know you look at pretty much any metric, all the data. Herbert had record setting years one and two.

The surroundings were relatively awful in terms of just a combination of what the defense looked like, kind of O-line success, coordinator, receiver speed, health, like all those things. So he was that good in spite of a lot of things around him. but I just I didn't feel that he was up there with the Mahomes you know stratosphere which Alan kind of got put into and that's a discussion whether he should be mentioned there but I think it's easier to say the Mahomes and Alan you know level than it is to say the Mahomes take a step down Alan general stratosphere so I think Herbert Herbert is close like when you look at that next wave of quarterbacks if you look at the top

five guys of people that you're projecting for the future like it's Mahones it's Alan it's Burrow, it's Herbert, and I guess, you know, Jalen Hertz is probably the fifth guy that you talk about now. I mean, Trevor Lawrence is starting to bang on that door a little bit. And so I think Herbert's great. I think he's awesome, but there's just always been this disconnect to me. And the game from last night, or a couple nights ago, is what I texted you about. So if your quarterback plays as good as he possibly can, he's 39 for 51, they don't turn the ball over, you have the ball for 40 minutes, I would expect more than 23 points. Like, I understand that the offensive coordinator

makes some bad third and short calls. They were still 50% converting on general third downs throughout the game. They were one for two on fourth downs. They were 50% on third down, 50% on fourth down, had the ball for 40 minutes. You threw 51 times, completed 39 passes. The quarterback played awesome. And you still only scored 23 points against a mediocre defense,

like not even a top-level defense. There are four-and-one away on a fucking swing pass to DeAndre Carter from scoring 30. I know, but I'm saying, there's just always that bit of a disconnect to me with they don't score as many points as you would expect. Like, I don't know. And I understand that there's a rib injury.

I'm not even slightly worried about that one. They are a yard away from scoring 30 in that game. And the offensive line is an abject disaster right now. I mean, it is barely functional. And he was able to do that in that game. And the one point total in the Miami game, is where you and I are going to differ here. Everything else about this conversation were generally on the same page.

Coming into the season, I thought he was ready to take that step with improved circumstances. The Chargers this offseason drafted a guard in the first round and talking to people there, their argument for why that was going to kind of be the rug that brought the room together, is that they couldn't push the ball downfield as much as they wanted last season because the protection and couldn't hold up. And I think that's fair. I understand that. It didn't hold up.

So now you have, from left to right, you have a left tackle that was borderline all pro last season, a left guard you signed a free agency that's a solid player, a very good center when he's healthy, a right guard that you drafted in the first round, and you'll figure out the right tackle thing. That always gave me a little pause, but I understand the general plan.

You still have Keenan Allen, you re-signed Mike Williams. You have Alsenek who was a fantastic pass catcher. You sign Gerald Everett, who's not a great player, but has a little bit of juice to him for a tight end. Second year in the system, they were a top five offense according to every advanced metric last year.

Let's ride the racket ship. That didn't happen for a bunch of different reasons. The offensive line has been torn up the entire season. You lose your left tackle. You lose your center for multiple games. He's left in the middle of multiple games. The left guard has regressed as somebody you signed in free agency. The right guard has not been a plug-in-play above-average player

like you expected him to be in what he was supposed to be pre-draft, and the right tackle has been intermittently hurt or ineffective. The receivers have not played. But coming into that game against Miami, I think that they're top three guys with Palmer Williams and Kenan Allen, I've put like 15 snaps together the entire year. So those circumstances did not improve based on what they were last year,

so he did not take that step forward. I also think it's about more than the circumstances. I've said this before, and I'm fully willing to admit this. Sometimes you get bored. It's fun to be like, man, is he going to be the guy that takes that step? And based on that divisional game we watched last year from Allen and Mahomes, if Alan is that guy all year, which is moving forward, him and Mahomes probably belong on the same tier,

and can Herbert be the guy that walks into that tier if things get better? I'm blowing that up now. Mahomes is his own tier. He should be, and he should have been for the last three or four years, but sometimes it's tempting to want to throw other people in there just to generate discussion or because I don't know for a lot of different reasons. So if we're tiering it now, Boholmes is in his own. That has become clear this year. They trade Tyreek Hill. It doesn't matter. He's having an unbelievably mindlessly efficient season. He is the best player. He is the best

quarterback. I think that Alan is probably in his own tier below that, which we can get into if you want to. And then I think the tier below those two guys in their own is probably Burrow and Justin Herbert. If I was doing it right now, that's how I would sect it off. And I'm fully willing to admit that we were put in the cart before the horse saying that he could get into that top tier this year. Yeah, I'm with you. So the reason I'm bringing up the 23 points from last game is because there's just always been this disconnect. And I feel like the group that wants to put him in that top three bona fide like he's already there. There's just a little bit of something that takes me off of it.

And so if they need to get Sean Payton this offseason and all of a sudden he has an MVP year, then like, all right, I can fully buy into it. It might even be like six weeks of that. But there's just that little bit that gets me from saying, again, I'm saying he's like the number four quarterback to me right now. I think Burroughs a little bit better. And talk about bad O lines last year and dragging a team to the freaking Super Bowl and almost winning with an abysmal offensive line and, you know, a DVOA defense that I don't think was even top ten. even though they played really well. No, they were like 18th last season. Yeah.

So you want to talk about circumstances and what a guy's done and proven. Like, look at that. He came off an ACL injury because his O-line was shit and then put up that kind of season. And now this year is showing that again, even with Jumar Chase out, I know they've got better receivers across the board than what the Chargers do. But their O-line isn't like great. And, you know, I think when you get into kind of playing that circumstance game, like you can you can do it for all different levels. But I think you're correct. Mahomes is his own tier.

I kind of have Allen and Burrow on the same one at this point. And I think Herbert's just like that baby step below. And I'm willing to say that like he's the fourth quarterback and that's awesome. Like that's really good for where you should slide in for the NFL. But I think when you're comparing circumstances, surroundings, what Burrough has done given his compared to what Alan has done, you know, over the last three years. We had this little mini discussion as well, but over the last three years, Alan's had the best situation in terms of a top tier defense, one of the best offensive coordinators slash play designers, you know, not this year, but a functioning, you know, pretty good offensive line, good weapons. Like if we're saying Herbert could be this guy because

all those things weren't there for him, then we should bump Alan down just a little bit saying that, you know, he benefited from all those things as well. And that's another thing for Mahomes. He's never had a good defense. He's had, you know, bottom tier defenses that have played as, you know, middle tier or in some stretches, top tier defenses. But he, if you want to go through defenses, like, he's always, you know, had a bad defense to contend with. So, yeah, I think we're looking at those four and we feel pretty good about that. I mean, I think Jalen is awesome. I think he's right there in the conversation because, you know, getting back to the mobile quarterback side of things, Herbert is very mobile. He can move in the pocket. He can run when he's out of the pocket. But you're not designing

quarterback runs for him where I think Jalen, you are because of his body, because of his frame. And so if you can put in four to eight quarterback runs that are designed and, you know, he doesn't have to run them every time. They can be handoffs. They can be RPO's. But you're sprinkling those in. That makes your run game so dynamic. And I think what he doesn't have as a passer from, you know, what Herbert does, but what Jalen's shown and the ability to design a run. scheme around him and the ability to break, contain, and pick up first downs with his legs on third down. I think that package is amazing, and he's played so well. So I think that's a really solid top five.

And Herbert, you could put him anywhere three through five, and I'd feel really comfortable. And I don't think that's that egregious. And I don't think that's that ridiculous of a take. All I'm saying is that he's not in the Mahomes Allen tier. And I think we were a little premature. And that's it. I think that's totally fair. That's the crux of it.

I'm still putting an Allen in his own tier for this reason. The supernova aspect of his game is just different to me than what Burrow can provide to you. I think Joe Burroughs is phenomenal, and what he has done over the last two years is phenomenal. But Josh Allen this season, I don't think the circumstances in Buffalo are that great. Their offensive line isn't great. I think they've had to work through some stuff with the play calling, just the general kind of approach on offense with Dorsey there. The past catchers outside of Steph Diggs, it's not like they have superstars there. He's still third in EPI.

per dropback, and there's a significant drop-off between the him to a Mahomes tier and everybody else. So what he's able to do just the problem-solving aspect of his game. If it's third and 14, the scrambling ability, the physicality, what he can do to break in case of emergency, just with the physical tools, I think is different than what a Joe Burrow gives you. And that's why I would put him in his own kind of separate second tier. And it's impossible for me to get that divisional game from last year out of my head.

impossible. And just like him, his ability to kind of go haymaker for haymaker with Mahomes in that game, I still give him the slight edge. That third tier, I do think that Burroughs at the top of it right now because of what he's been able to do the last two years and the way he's playing right now, his ability to transform his game to figure out different solutions to different problems. This year, probably around that Baltimore game in week five, when he, He kind of made a conscious decision to say, I'm going to take what's here and I'm going to play within the confines of what defenses are allowing us to do.

It's kind of transformational. And the fact that he can do that, I think, speaks so much to who he is as a quarterback and what he can accomplish. It'd be impossible. This is the guy who had as my second team all pro quarterback last year. I can't overstate how impressed I have been with him over the last two years, the last 18 months. So he's probably at the top of that third thing for me, but I think that Justin Herbert is right there. I think he is right behind Joe Burrow and belongs there. I need more time from Jalen Hertz.

It's just time spent, like equity as this sort of player. That's really the only thing keeping him on the outside and maybe five, six, however you want to stack him up. And then Trevor Lawrence is definitely coming. And I think DAC is like somewhere just below all of that group because I think the DAC is phenomenal. So how you want to stack him up outside of that is fine. but we're not too far off in how we're talking about this, even if our feelings about Justin Herbert publicly may seem very different. It's just a little bit of pushback on social media.

That's it. It's fun to do that every now against you. Social media quarterback. But is it that surprising that the Chargers podcast wants to ask me if I was wrong? It's not a random fan from Buffalo. I only throw it in there just so we could talk about it because I wanted to have this discussion. saying like that's that's the type of thing like is it you know a bunch of like non-chargers or non-film watching people that were really pushing back that strongly like no it's people that you know watch

it and think he's fantastic and people that are chargers fans like of course that's how social media works but like that's where you get the push back i will say very very quickly you made an excellent point on burrow which is something i've realized over the past couple weeks when's the last time we heard him oh well burrow he just you know he's holding on the ball he's taking all these sacks like he is changed that part of his game and that was probably the biggest drawback to his game. So kudos to him, something that I haven't really seen brought up in many places, but he's made that conscious decision and the offense and he is much better for it. He's very stubborn and I think it really makes him who he is and just that edge that he brings

to the game is a huge weapon for him. But I also think that it's made him slow to kind of adopt some of the ideas that are in his best interest. And now that he has done that, it's remarkable to watch. And I will fully admit that I get intoxicated by the tools. Like I do. Like I watch Justin Herbert. And we talked about this with Nate.

It goes way beyond the tools. His ability to avoid negative plays and just how smart he is in the pocket. And his approach to the game is remarkable. And then you combine that with just the eye-popping arm talent that he has. But that sort of player, when I watch Josh Allen, it's the same. It's just easier for me to talk myself into. It's harder for me to appreciate someone like Burr. and the nuance that makes him great.

But over the last two years, it's impossible to ignore. I mean, the nuance is so devastating at all of those aspects of his game, how smart he is and just his ability to instantly identify stuff and the accuracy and the decision-making and the fact that he can extend plays. I have become a full-on, like, Joe Burrow believer and supporter, but it did take me a little while to get there simply because it's more obvious with Justin Herbert than it is with Joe Burrow. And I think that that's probably why.

which has been, as you know, another part of my argument that there's an aesthetically pleasing boost that Herbert gets because it's just beautiful. There's no denying that. There is no denying that. And I think that that's what happens. I just, last thing I'll say, I want to see Joe, I want to see Justin Herbert in an offense with one guy. One like not Jalen Guyton, one like starting level receiver who runs a sub 4, 540.

That's it. That's all I want to see is him with one guy that can do that. And then let's see what the results are. Okay. Bo, let's do it. Let's get to our first voicemail. Hey, Robert. This is Brian from Sacramento, California.

I was wondering, the CMC trade seems to have single-handedly transformed the 49ers offense. They were ranked 21st in VBOA prior to the trade. And as of today, they are fourth and will likely be higher after Sunday's performance. Can you think of another in-season trade? with that level of impact. Thanks for the answer. Love the show. So he was actually underselling it.

Since the trade, they are first in DVOA on offense, and it is not even close. They're at like 61 and no other team is above like 29. I mean, it's been insane. And I want to be clear before we dig into this, these stats are often not causal. Like there are so many different factors involved. The Niners' offense isn't been the best offense in front. football since the McAfrey trade because of Christian McCaffrey solely. But so not all of these are going to be if A then B.

There's some other trades I want to talk about in the same kind of context. But before we do that, what have you thought of the McAfrey trade and the results of it based on maybe what you expected at the moment the trade happened? I mean, this is how he should look in the offense. He's an awesome running back. He's been looked at differently than his actual skill set because people assume something about his frame that he can't run power. like all these other things. It's like, dude, he went to Stanford and ran the ball 40 times a game,

and all they did was run power in gap schemes. And like the touchdown he popped from last week was a gap scheme, and he's able to read it out. And he somehow knows to stiff arm the guy from the back side, not from the front side. You know, so he's looked exactly like I thought he would. The question, again, it's salary and it's health. And the salary this year is awesome. He only costs like one million. The health, we'll see if he's healthy for the playoff run. Like, that's the question on him. And then next year he's making $12 million. And for a team that can have any running back who isn't making a lot of money play well

and every running back who is making money get hurt, is it wise to pay that much to a guy as good as he can be? So I think McCaffrey fits the offense well because he's a fantastic running back. He reads things well. The offense creates a ton of space. He allows them to run some of those gap scheme counterplays, shotgun stuff a little more efficiently than maybe some of the other guys did. And he just looks fantastic. But his return also strongly coincides, I believe, with Trent Williams return.

And getting that guy back is pretty instrumental for the offense. So I think, you know, you always look at who else is around him. And also kind of coincides, you know, Bosa gets fully healthy. You know, Kittle was hurt early in the year. He's kind of worked himself into them realizing that he exists on that offense again and throwing him the ball more than twice a game. So I think you've got all these, you know, multiple influences. but yeah, in terms of fit and you look at the offense,

I think the thing that was oversold was McCaffrey, Debo, where are they going to line up? You're going to be so confused. You could have two receivers. I don't think that's been oversold at all. See, I think that has because I think they're running a lot of similar stuff that, you know, is just their base offense with good players. I don't know that that's caused the confusion that has led to this huge spike in DVOA.

I don't think it's about confusion, but I do think that the ways that they've weaponized him as a receiver changes the value discussion. And if you were trying to justify the trade in the moment, that's how people were trying to do it. Well, if they trade for Christian McCaffrey, he's not really just a running back. So all these concerns we have about how much you pay a running back, how much you're willing to trade for a running back, those are overstated as it relates to Christian McCaffrey.

And part of me was like, I don't know, I guess. I mean, he's still a running back. Like, as good as a receiver as he is, he is still ultimately a running back. and we've tried to do this with other players like Alvin Camara when he got his extension. And often, it's hard for guys at that position to transcend the value limitations on that position, even if they're high-volume receivers. That has not been the case with Christian McCaffrey since he got San Francisco. Right now, among players with at least 25 targets since that trade, there are 110 of them.

Christian McCaffrey is 21st in EPA per target over that stretch since the trade happened. I mean, he's right there with the most valuable players in the league when you throw the ball to them since that trade took place. Here are some of the guys that he's around. He's just ahead of Tyreek Hill and T. Higgins. He's just behind Justin Jefferson and MVS. Think about the circumstances that lead to that number for MVS. he's the deep shot guy in a Patrick Mahomes offense. C.D. Lamb is just ahead of McCaffrey.

I mean, he has been one of the most valuable receiving weapons in the league since he got there. And so I just, I should have known that if there was anybody who could extract excess value from this in a way that didn't seem obvious or would have been hard to pull off, it was going to be Kyle Shanahan. And that's exactly what's happened. The long-term outlook definitely up for debate and up for discussion. But what it has looked like over the seven weeks has been pretty remarkable. But I guess my point is he's always been seen as this runner

who can catch the ball and he's got value as a receiver and you can weaponize him. His last three games in Carolina, he had eight targets, 12 targets, and nine targets. I think it's the way the targets are coming. I don't think it's being used as a receiver. No, I think it's the touchdown from this week where he's the number one receiver,

he runs a sluggo against the safety, and there's absolutely no shot. And you're putting Kittle in the backfield as the guy who's in pass protection in that because you have Christian McCaffrey that can be your number one receiver in that spot. I don't think a lot of other teams are running that. So it's not about confusion,

but I do think that application of the skill position talent that you have is different with this team than it is for almost any other team in the league. Yeah, I'm with you on that. I just think there was this idea that which guy's going to line up in which spot, like to me the difference between Kittle running their route and McCaffrey, I think is pretty similar. Like it's not like Kittle couldn't run that route and beat a safety for a touchdown.

So yeah, it's fun to like play around with them, but you're going to get a relatively similar matchup and you've got quality guys at every single spot. So I understand that idea, but I think the, to me it was what I saw was more like, well, they have Debo and they have McCaffrey and they can be interchangeable parts and you don't know the personnel. It could be, you know, two running backs. It could be two receivers. Like the versatility between them is how they're going to get all this, you know, confusion, quote unquote, on the defense aside because you don't know basically how to play them personnel-wise. And I get the Shanahan has sprinkled that in. He's using them exceptionally well. He's taking advantage of their skill sets and how

they can be used as match-up pieces. But again, I think that, you know, to me is what was expected. and it's not this like extra boost that we've got these interchangeable pieces and they can go anywhere. And now all of a sudden, Debo is going to get a bunch of carries when McCaffrey's doing this other stuff. See, I don't want that. That part I have no use for. I don't care about Debo getting a bunch of carries because Trish McCaffrey's there. I care about him being a receiver in different ways than he would be in other offenses. That's it.

That's the only like interchangeable piece thing that I think is ultimately a net positive for you if you're the Niners. And I think that it has been a net positive if you look at the numbers. So yeah, no, again, I agree with that. It just, it gets back to a coordinator that knows how to use his guy in the best way and to maximize the skill set that he had shown. I mean, there's a reason that he was known as, you know, the best past catching guy. And potentially you could play him as more of just a receiver slot guy. You could split him out. You know, you could go five wide instead of having him do the one step pitch and just kind of, you know, gently hold flat coverage like he could run legitimate routes. And so, yeah, he goes to a coach that understands how to. actually utilize that and to, you know, fully take hold of that. And we are seeing the benefits of it. So I'm 100% with you on that part. So other in-season trades that have had a similar impact, we can run through these very quickly. The answer is not a lot. There aren't a lot of big time in-season trades. You know, that's just not how it happens. So the one that I think is probably the best comparison. It's hard to know how much of this, again, a statistical quirk and how much of

his actual impact. Minkin Fitzpatrick was traded to the Steelers in the early part of the 2019 season, two games into the year when Miami was starting to tear it down. The Steelers were 29th in EPA per dropback over the first two weeks of that year. They played against the Tom Brady Patriots and the Russell Wilson Seahawks in those first two games. They finished second in EPA per dropback on defense after the McFitts Patrick trade. He finished that year with five picks in those 14 games and forced three fumbles and then recovered three more. So his impact on that team that was very, very good defensively was pretty insane. Again, hard to know where they would have finished if they hadn't made that trade.

I still assume it would have been pretty good, but they were very good with Mick of Fitzpatrick. The Ramsey trade in 2019, they were fifth in EPA per dropback post-Ramsey trade. They were 12th. The Rams were before they made that trade, so not as much of a jump, but they were still very good defense after they made that move. The Cowboys after Amari Cooper were 12th in EPA for dropback. 26th before the trade. So they were significantly better as a passing team after that deal was made. And this one isn't technically in-season, but it happened right before the season.

The Bears were like historically good on defense in 2018 after the Kloomack trade. I mean, he was absolutely insane that year. And they traded for him on September 1st. So that's also one that happened without much training camp, any of that stuff. But in terms of in-season trades, there aren't that many examples. aren't that many others in recent history where a guy of this caliber has been traded. So it's one of the more impactful moves that we've seen. Yeah.

And I think it gets back to one, teams aren't probably going to trade those guys. And two, even when you do trade a good player, like you just get so much more value out of the quarterback and out of a lot of other things that one football player is good as they are. It's just it's really difficult to be that big of a game changer. And like we're saying, we're even discussing within these that there are. other factors at play, there's other influences. So it's not just like they got this one guy and he was the only reason that everything turned around. So yeah, it's cool to see him and I wish we had more trades. I think that's one of the fun things about the NBA is guys move around and they can make such a

big impact. So I think we'll see a little bit more of this in football as teams have moved on from quarterbacks and realize that eating dead money isn't the worst thing in the world. I think they're going to realize that they can do it for the other positions as well. All right. Next one here. your well-positioned answer this because Andy Reid is an absolute psycho. Kenny Greenia asks, Hey, Robert and Mitch, I've always loved your insides into the game, and the penny stool trick play has me wondering something that Mitchell might be able to shed some light on. I was wondering how a team decides which O. Lyman gets to be the focus of a play like that.

I know that Harbaugh at Michigan had throwing competitions during practice between running backs and receivers, determine who gets to throw the ball in their trick plays. Do NFL teams ever do something like that for linemen catching it, or do NFL staffs already have a player in mind when they draw something up like that? I'd love to know more about this process. How did you guys figure out what the trick plays would look like in Kansas City? Because you ran seemingly five of them a game. So I don't think this factored into it a ton.

It might have, and I'll explain why. So we had what we called fat and slow, which for football people, when quarterbacks are warming up and they're throwing in the receiver lines to receivers, it's called Pat and Go. And we called it Fat and Slow for obvious reasons. So the beginning of Friday practices, we would run fat and slow just the O-line, and we'd have, you know, Coach Hacker, offensive line coach, and Coach Matti, our assistant O-line coach, would be throwing us the balls and be the, you know, two receiver lines going the opposite direction. So they kind of got a sense of, like, which guys could catch the ball and which guys look fluid.

So I don't know if that goes into the decision-making, and it's like coach HEC that's like, yeah, I know that, you know, Nick Allegreddy can catch a pass, or I know Eric Fisher can catch a pass or Mike Rummers. How was your route running? How are you on the outside? My best comparison, Jason Witten. Everything just extremely slow and precise. And I'd probably be going so slow that I could create separation because I could make a cut with one step because I was going so slow, which was always my joke about how he got open at the end. It's like he doesn't need five steps to break down. He just takes one step and he can create separation.

But excellent hands. I think I missed like one pass in my five years. I have fantastic hands. But the separation is definitely going to be an issue. So to get to the more serious part of it, there are some plays where, like, we threw a touchdown to fish. And that was a play that was becoming one of those copycat plays that everyone was running, where you usually bring in a sixth offense alignment.

That six offense alignment runs onto the field. He reports as eligible. But on this specific play, he doesn't report eligible. He runs in. There's a code word. The left tackle knows to report. And you kind of hide that the left. tackle is the one who's eligible. And you run, you know, a play action to the left. So he's kind of

the end man on the line of scrimmage. He makes it look like he's blocking the defensive end. Everyone thinks it's a, you know, normal kind of naked play action. He sheds the end. He goes into the end zone. He catches it. That just happens to go to left tackles. Like that's the way the play is designed. So you see, you know, Dionne Dawkins caught a few. I think maybe Taylor Decker caught one. I think the Packers played at Bakhtiari was probably pretty similar to that. Fish caught one. So that's one that's just by design. And in a normal sense, there's a six offense alignment. And so that's the guy that maybe the offense align coach knows is like a little more athletic

and maybe like there's a chance that he's the one you want as a six guy because on a given heavy play, he could be the third or fourth read and he's never really going to catch it. But there's a very slim chance. And like I know that this guy can catch because I've seen him, you know, on Fridays make a couple catches. All right. Let's get to our next voicemail here, Bellar. Cue it up. Hey, guys. My name's Tim. Love the show.

I'm in Pittsburgh, so I just want to ask, do you expect these Steelers to retain Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator, or is he gone after this year? And if he's gone, who do you think is a reasonable replacement for him? Who do you think the Steelers could target for offensive coordinator? Thanks, and happy holidays. Tim sounds like a delightful man. I really appreciate him calling in. I'm getting in good mood after hearing that. So I do think they're probably going to move on.

I would assume that they would. I think that it's probably time to start over on offense if you're Pittsburgh. So I want to talk about some potential replacements, but also just how we think about coordinator candidates and where you find them. Because I'm curious about your insight there. The first name that came to mind, and this is obviously one bucket you can pull from, is Frank Rick. I mean, just a guy who has done it before, I think easily could come in with Mike Tomo

and has skins on the wall. They've had success with guys like this in the past. I mean, obviously, Ken Wisenhunt was a coordinator. there, a long time guy in the NFL, Brouserians, had a lot of success there. Todd Haley was a former head coach who came back and was a coordinator there, a ton of cashé in the organization. So that's my knee-jerk choice if he's available and willing to do it. But there's also some guys that have never gotten a chance to do it before that I think

are probably worth exploring. I hope they move on from Canada because that's one that needs to happen. If they keep him, I mean, that just goes to kind of the Steelers, not wanting to change things. My only worry with them is I feel like Canada was a bit of, I'm not going to say out of the box, but like for what we know of Pittsburgh, you know, run game, defense, play action. I mean, I know Ben didn't love play action, but like Canada comes in. He's got all his jet sweeps and guys in motion and it's maybe a little bit different thinking. So I hope that that doesn't make them think like, well, we can't get one of these new age guys that likes to throw the ball 60% of the game.

and like I hope they don't fall back into the, you know, Jason Garrett. We're just going to run the ball and run the ball and establish the run. And we draft a Naji and the offensive line. So that's my biggest hope for them is that they find a guy who is a bit more progressive and a bit more new age and kind of the thinking. And I think Wright can definitely fit into that. And like you said, he's got some of those pelts on the wall. He's got the experience.

It seems like he's gotten, you know, the best out of guys. You can make all the Wendst jokes you want. But like compared to what we've seen from Wents in the past few years, like that was a really good season for him last year. And, you know, he's able to, you know, kind of go through the rotating quarterbacks and still hold that team together pretty well. So I think Reich would be an awesome one that can, he can blend styles. Like this year, I was kind of unimpressed with the way the offense went.

But I think, again, he was trying to cater to an older quarterback who wasn't more mobile, though line was downgraded. Disaster. Yeah. So he was playing into that, you know, run, play action, kind of short pass, like not that great of an offense looking type of thing where I think with Pittsburgh he could maybe start with that with Pickett and then figure out what he likes and open up a bit of a more downfield passing attack. And again, a guy who his reputation is getting the best out of quarterbacks.

And I think as we've talked about over and over, like the number one goal is to maximize what you have in that quarterback room and to maximize, you know, your first round quarterback. So getting a guy who can get the most out of him and build something around him that works to the skill set. I think, you know, that would be a good one. And you can also look into, you know, quarterback coaches on, on good teams. And if they do want to go from the, you know, McVe-Shannahan tree and try to find a guy that is more along that, you know, outside zone play action kind of tree, I could see that working as well because, you know, Tomlin's gone up against that offense a bunch. And I'm sure he likes what he sees from that. And he feels like that's an offense that

establishes the run and establishes physicality. So I can see someone from that tree as well. Two, I've really appreciated offenses that just have an innate flexibility about them. And you're not just Xerox copying a playbook or an approach from where you were an assistant and then applying that to wherever you go. And I think the best example of that recently has been what the Eagles look like. The offense that Shane Stuyken ran in with the, I almost said San Diego there, with the chargers is obviously different.

and the Norv Turner influences that were part of his early career, the Eagles are running something very different right now. And I just think that that ability to kind of be whatever you need to be is so incredibly valuable. And the teams that have done that have a lot of respect for that. So the first place I'd probably start is Brian Johnson, who's the quarterback coach for the Eagles, what Jaylen Hertz has done, the flexibility within that offense, he comes from the college ranks. And I think that somebody who knows that world, I think there's a lot of, there's a big advantage in that.

Like, it's easy. A lot of the really good, smart, I think thoughtful offensive coaches that I know in the NFL are people that intentionally and consciously seek out ideas from college football. And that's oftentimes just making connections in that world and making phone calls. Like, how does this work? Why does this work? What do you think the holes in some of this are? And this is somebody who already is established in that world. You know, Brian Daibble and I go to the Giants in a second, going to Alabama and living in that world.

world for a couple years, I think was hugely influential on a lot of things that we saw from Buffalo. And that's why I think the giant staff would be another good place to look, because they've had similar approaches and similar ideas. Shea Tierney is their quarterback's coach. He was the assistant quarterback's coach in Buffalo with Daible. And I think that he is somebody that an ideas guy, if you want to kind of figure out what that might look like. That's a really outside of the box thing. I think that would be like a pretty big one. But those kinds of guys are interesting to me. And the last name I'll throw out, he actually interviewed for the Raiders offensive coaching job last year and did not get it, is Drew Petsing, who is the quarterback's coach for the Browns. You know, what the Browns have done on offense over the last couple years and, you know, their ability to kind of mesh some ideas. And the gap scheme runs that they've really adopted and been really good at were not a part of Stefanski's world before he got to Cleveland. That's a Bill Callahan thing. And I think that when you can kind of piece together different ideas and say, all right, this is how we're going to build it because this is what our players do best. That's the type of offense I would want.

So that's probably where I would go. It's funny that some of the places we'd usually pluck people from, the Rams, the Niners, like there's no one to pluck anymore. Leave Cohen's back going back to Kentucky. The entire Niners staff is completely new this year. So those are the guys that are position coaches that just those names would come to mind and the places I would want to try to grab somebody from. You know who actually could be interesting, 49ers?

Isn't Greasy the quarterbacks coach? He is. Yes. And he's had a pretty awesome year. when you consider, you know, Grappel looking great and what Purdy's done the past couple weeks. That's a good one. Maybe someone like that who, again, doesn't have the coaching pedigree, but has the playing pedigree and the family pedigree and all those things.

That can be an interesting one. But I will say quickly, a lot of those Shanahan McVeigh guys, they have adapted their offenses really well to their quarterbacks. Like McDaniel's done an incredible job in Miami, to a, you know, LaFleur, there's been the struggle with, you know, him and how to make it a Rogers offense and a Shanahan offense. Zach Taylor has done a good job of that with Burrow. So they all have shown that flexibility to kind of go out from, you know, the true

core outside zone play action scheme and mold it to what the quarterback likes and throw in a bit more of the kind of spread shotgun influence. So Danny Pitcher is the Bengals quarterback's coach. So if we want to just dig a little bit further into that, I think a lot of these guys that are offensive coordinators of these teams, like I think that Brian Callahan is absolutely going to get head coaching interviews and should this office. season. He's the Bengals offensive coordinator. Ben Johnson in Detroit, I would 100% want to pick his brain if I was hiring a head coach this year. Shane Steichen with Philadelphia. So you're saying

fire Tomlin and then hire one of these guys. These are the head coaches, but it's just like when you dig into the coordinator pool, when you're getting into the coordinator pool, you got to go one step deeper. Like, these are names and considerations that a lot of people don't know. But I also think it's really, really important. And the last point I want to make before we move on is that we don't know who's going to be good at these jobs. This is all about trying to pick the right resume and the guy with the right history, but it is so incredibly difficult to understand who's going to be good at the head coaching aspects of this. Okay. And there's no way for us to know that. So anytime we're throwing out head coach candidates and who should get these jobs, that's always going to be a mystery.

And I think it's really, really important to continuously bring that up. Because sometimes I forget that and it's a necessary piece of this entire conversation. I'm with you, but if the offense is that good, again, like winning takes care of everything else, like they can be maybe not the greatest leader or whatever, but like if they can design an offense that's that good and maximize an offense and score points, like I think everything else kind of falls in a place and you'll have guys on the staff to help pick up the slack. That's always where I'm starting.

Let's be clear about this. You know this about me. That is always where I'm starting with all this stuff. state that, that, you know, we don't know how they're going to be as leaders in that role, but if they are the ones calling the plays and their offenses perform to the level of what we've seen as coordinators, that's a good starting point. And that's why we both would start a team that way. All right.

Julia Gunther asks, Mike White seems to be getting better. And even though he's been in league a few years, he's had so few starts. How much can he improve and how many late round dudes do you think that are out there could be solid starters if given the chance to develop and get the reps needed that early round talents do? That's what I want to ask you here. As somebody who's been at practices, who's seen a lot of guys who are backup quarterbacks or got down the roster guys, how many do you think actually are out there? Do you think this is a real thing where if more guys got opportunities, because there are only so many reps to go around, there are more starting caliber quarterbacks out there than we necessarily think?

I don't know, because there's a bunch of quarterbacks that maybe aren't great. The teams still start and they've got those guys on their roster and don't play them. So I think they're out there and development can't happen. I mean, not to bring everything back to Mahomes, but like his athleticism, his arm strength is going to, you know, stay pretty level for a while here as he enters his late 20s. His experience and all that is going to keep growing, you know, if not linearly, like potentially exponentially. And that's playing, you know, 80 games now and banking all that, you know, experience and the coaching.

Yeah. So imagine what a guy who, you know, doesn't have his experience, uh, who finally gets that experience, what he can learn and how quickly he can take off. So yeah, there's probably more quarterbacks who are decent at the back end of the rosters or potentially on practice squad or not even in the league than we realize. But again, whether they can be a consistent week-to-week quarterback in the NFL, that's kind of the question. I mean, you look at Heineke and he's someone that flashed it.

We thought he could, and then he couldn't do it week-to-week, and now he's back to maybe being able to do it week-to-week. But again, are you just looking for a middle-tier quarterback? like is, I feel like the ceiling color guys like somebody who can play, somebody who's like a starting caliber quarterback. So like during practice, when you're watching backup quarterbacks play, do you have a sense of like, oh, yeah, that guy can play? Yeah, so it sounds dumb, but it's usually like how easily they can say the plays in the huddle

and like how quickly they can kind of like process and go through it. Because there's that just inherent like if it doesn't make sense in your brain that it can kind of flow from your head, like how is it going to make sense on the field when you can't even get out like, you know, switch to gun ride, like all these things. If that's not natural to you, then it's probably not going to be natural to read the defense and to go through their progressions and to make it kind of mindless. So I think you do have a sense, you know, of guys, of their comfortability in the offense just based on how they're calling the plays, how easy it is to talk about football,

whether, you know, they can kind of like, all right, it was trips right, it was covered two, the mic was pushed a little bit, you know, can he see that in his brain? and can he kind of make that happen? I think for quarterbacks, that's a really big thing. You know, I think you can't just be like a look at the paper and it has to make sense on paper. Like it has to make sense in your head and you have to be able to kind of remember those things. So I think you can tell whether a guy has that kind of innate ability to grasp it relatively early. All right.

Last one here. Vithammer says, I know you don't want to hear this. I think the Lions might be better off keeping Jared Gough, the new Alex Smith. One, the odds that they draft someone significantly better, may not have. be great. Two, golf's contract is reasonable for the next two years, and their surplus value in rookie contracts can come from elsewhere. Three, the Rams traded golf because they wanted to win it all.

The Lions next up is not the Super Bowl. It's respectability and playoff contention. Golf is good enough to do that. There is no quarterback arms race in the NFC that doesn't necessarily, they don't necessarily need elite quarterback play to advance in the playoffs. That one we can argue about. I'm in a place now where if they have the third overall pick and two quarterbacks go with the first two.

I don't think the Lions have to be hell-bent on finding someone this offseason. And that's the benefit of having a guy like Jared Gough. The Alex Smith comparison is actually, I think, a pretty good one in what that guy can give you in the right circumstances. Now, you guys were a top five offense with Alex before Patrick got there. And so I think really having that guy, you can keep the train on the tracks, can allow you to perform at a super high level. That's the benefit of a golf.

And he's only making like 30 million next year. And when you look at the quarterback landscape and the guys at the top are making 45, 50, it is a palatable contract and you have flexibility. That is the most important part of this. When you want to move on, you can move on. And having somebody that can be a steward of this offense in the meantime is extremely valuable. So I don't think the Lions have to go into this offseason and say, we have to upgrade from Jared Gough right now. And that is the luxury of the position that they're in. I agree with you. The flip side is if they're going to be a mid-tier team,

are they going to have this opportunity to draft, you know, a bona fide top two quarterback? That is a very good argument. So if they're number three or number four, and we say that Young and Stroud are the top two for sure, and we don't like Levis as a guy or whatever, you know, can they get to number two if Chicago's there, if another team that has a quarterback and they're able to jump up a couple spots, you don't have to move on from golf, but realistically, are you going to be able to draft in the top five to replace him with someone who has the upside to be that much better than him in the future?

That's the question. And do you want to just kind of tread water? And maybe the O.C. we just talked about leaves and the offense takes a big step back. And, you know, now they got to pay Sewell and they got to pay Jonah Jackson and they got to pay Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow. I think that's his name. A lot of those guys gotten paid. Decker's gotten paid.

Ragnow got paid. Right. But I'm saying, so now you got two. other guys who are up and now you've got four guys who are top tier and then you've got a receiver to pay and then you've got um i'm just saying it starts to add up where you're starting to pay a bunch of other people and you're making you know some sort of you know downside in terms of uh what they can be as an offense because right now the o line's in the perfect spot they got a couple young guys couple veterans um you know the quarterback's not making a ton they got an oC who's awesome but when that starts to change

and when you either need to leave let guys go to free agency or your o line starts to get depleted a little bit and the coordinator's gone. Ken Goff, you know, be the guy that he currently is. I think the answer is probably not quite, but then again, you're still seven and ten and you're not bad enough to draft a guy. So in this case, if you can replace him with, you know, one of those guys, and I know you shouldn't necessarily feel strongly about him

because they're not good enough to pick them properly. But if you can, this is the year to do it. So it's, you don't have to, but I think if the opportunity presents itself, you jump on it. I think that's fair. All right. that's all we got. Mitchell Schwartz,

thank you so much for the time, my friend. Always great to chat with you. We'll do this again soon. Yeah, good to see you. All right, guys, that's all we got for today. Really appreciate you spending the time with us.

If you have not, please go listen to Prospects to Pros, it should be out on Wednesday afternoon. They are also, Andy and Dane, doing a draft mailbag. So go check that out today. Mike and Randy will be with you

on Thursday morning with the football GM. Please go listen to those guys. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. Please subscribe to Athletic. the athletic.com slash football show is where you can do that. I will be back on Thursday afternoon on YouTube with Nate doing our week 15 preview. Until then, I appreciate you guys listening.

We'll talk to you soon. This was the athletic football show.