The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Monday Mailbag: Mike McCarthy vs. Sean Payton, best divisions in 2023, favorite condiments, and more

Episode Date: June 26, 2023

Robert Mays and Nate Tice go digging into the TAFS mailbag once again to kick off the week. The guys tackle questions on the differences between Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton, the best divisions in 20...23, their favorite condiments, and a whole lot more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThis episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/MAYS and get on your way to being your best self. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Join me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing, like, quite well. Have you ever ordered something and forgot you ordered it?
Starting point is 00:00:27 Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Maybe, well, not so much for you anymore. Maybe for me after a cocktail or two. And I, because yesterday, I got a package and I had no idea what it was. I knew I ordered some new socks from night. And but then I was like, that's not a Nike package. It turned out I ordered a one gallon water bottle and totally forgot I ordered it because
Starting point is 00:00:48 the last time I went golfing, because now that's getting hot Vegas, I last like seven holes. This is what I attributed to, my poor play in the last seven holes. Well, I got dehydrated. Oh, yeah, it was too. Of course. You're thirsty. Yeah, my 36 ounce bottle didn't do the, didn't do the trick. No, I, that's not it.
Starting point is 00:01:02 I needed water. I just got dehydrated. So I bought a one gallon bottle and I am thrilled. It was like, Merry Christmas in the summer to me. me. But yeah, that is the highlight of my day. I'm doing a great, I'm in a great mood because of that because of a nice gift to myself. But I hope you're doing well as well, buddy. I always know what's coming because buying things online is the only way I can make myself feel alive. So I always know the clothes are coming in the mail and my wife is getting increasingly
Starting point is 00:01:31 upset about the amount of them that are coming. So I'm always aware. Don't you worry. It's the only time I know my wife. It's when I know my wife ordered something is when she goes, Have you checked the mail today? Because that's the only time she asks is when she knows she's about to get something in the mail. Other than that, we can go weeks, you know, because our mail is at the little mailbox down the street. We can go weeks and she wouldn't ask. But I know when she ordered something and that it's coming in that and not to our front porch. So, yeah, that's always, it's a little gift to ourselves sometimes.
Starting point is 00:01:58 Speaking of mail, we got a bunch of mail. It is another mailbag Monday here on the athletic football show. We have one more of these after today with me and you before you're going to take a quick little break from us. We always just wanted to say, again, thank you to everyone who sent in a question. Thank you to everyone who spent the time to do it. We've enjoyed doing these during the summer. We're getting very, very close to training camp and to our regularly scheduled programming, but still deep in June.
Starting point is 00:02:23 And it's really nice to be able to just be prodded with some questions that we find particularly interesting. We've gotten a whole shows out of them beyond doing these mailbags. If you have not listened to the, how many stars does your team need to win a Super Bowl show that we did last Friday? that started, the genesis of that was a couple different mailbag questions combined. So we sincerely appreciate you guys taking the time to send them in. And again, we got some decent ones today. So yeah, that was a great. That was a fun show.
Starting point is 00:02:48 That was a really like informative show. Yeah. So thank you for some of these questions. My wife was in here today when I was prepping for some of these or looking at some of the answers. And I said, man, we are some of these fans, man. I have some like really get my brain going. Really make me say ooh with some of these questions. And it's really nice.
Starting point is 00:03:06 It's nice. It's very rewarding. Again, it's just like in that one gallon bottle without even knowing I ordered it or remembering that I order it. Sometimes I look at these questions and I start reading. I'm like, I'm glad we have this because sometimes I get caught in my own world of consuming the game of football. It is very important to have outside perspective. It absolutely is. And you guys do a fantastic job from all over the world, like literally from all over the world, which I still think is one of the coolest things about this show and getting to do the show.
Starting point is 00:03:33 All right. Let's get to our first voicemail, I'm going to do this show. Hey guys. As a bearer's fan, you hear all the time, but how many options they have. But it feels like when we have that conversation, what we're talking about is not hitting Caleb Williams because whoever gets 101 will not leave that spot. And not getting Drake May because whoever gets 102 will also not leave that spot. So what we're talking about is giving an arm and a leg for the third best QB in the draft, probably. So is this a kind of flawed concept of hoarding picks for the next year if we know that the top boss, the top QBs won't be moved? Or are we satisfied going to the third QB, or do you think that there's a world in which truly Williams were made could be moved?
Starting point is 00:04:18 Appreciate your thoughts on this. Also, my sweet, beautiful Nate, how could you possibly pick another UNC quarterback over high-thru-en-calibre guys again? Have we not learned lessons of Ms. Chubesbee? Love you guys. Bye. Didn't know that was coming. I also forgot that was coming. All right.
Starting point is 00:04:37 That actually is a spoiler for something I was about to say with this answer, but yeah, what are you about to say? Sorry. Well, I think that I understand the concern here, but so much can change between now and when that draft happens. And it can happen in a bunch of different ways. One, teams that already have quarterbacks can get the number one pick the draft, right? Like the Cardinals, I think, realistically could move on from Cowell Murray if they
Starting point is 00:05:03 get the number one pick. But let's say the Tennessee Titans, who I don't think are going to be a very good football team this year, somehow got the number one pick in next year's draft. They drafted Will Evans in the second round this year. They don't need a quarterback. So, or let's say they get the number two pick and the Cardinals get the number one pick. Let's say the Texans get the number two pick when they already drafted C.J. Stroud. The Bears have the number one pick this year and they didn't need a quarterback. That's why they got to trade out of the number one pick. So having the picks and having the flexibility, that's what matters. That's what's most important.
Starting point is 00:05:34 And let's say there's a third quarterback that somehow gets into the equation here that we think is really, really good and could be in the conversation with those two guys, whoever it ends up being. So I know that right now it's tempting to say, well, the bad teams will just draft the good quarterbacks. Those picks won't be available. But there is so much stuff that can happen between now and then that I think just having the resources, having the flexibility is what matters. Or even the guy like that. the question hits to, the voicemail hits it to, like the guy like Drake May, who is my, I truly am. It's not even, I don't think it should be too much of a hot take. He is my quarterback one right now.
Starting point is 00:06:05 What if he sucks us here? Yeah, yes. It turns into, or Caleb Williams gets hurt or, you know, God forbid. Or someone else, like, you never know. You never know how these guys shake out. You never know any of these things. So I agree with you. Or if Justin Fields goes crazy this year and it like becomes the 1% outcome that maybe he could
Starting point is 00:06:23 become, you never know. You never know. You get to do with the Eagles then and just take J.O. and Carter with the pick that you have in the top. It's the greatest thing ever. Yeah. What if they have a bad year? But then it's like, oh, Justin Fields is a guy, though. They just need more help.
Starting point is 00:06:34 It's like, oh, then you're, you got a stew going. Let's say, hypothetically, they have, like, the 12th best offense in the league. And Justin Fields looks really good. But they have the 28th best defense in the league. And they're bad. They go, like, five and 12 or whatever, like six and 11. And they get the third or fourth pick in the draft. And as the quarterbacks go one and two, oh, hello, Marvin Harrison Jr. is just sitting right there.
Starting point is 00:07:02 That's not the worst outcome. It's not the worst outcome. It's kind of win-win for the bears. I know as long as fields works out, it's really win-win. But this is, but just speaking about this quarterback class and we'll talk plenty about it over the next 10 months is that, you know, Riley Leonard from Duke is an interesting. The QB3 race is going to be really fun to keep track up. At this point in time, what we consider the QB3 race. But there are some really interesting names, Bo Nicks.
Starting point is 00:07:25 Quinn Ewers, JJ McCarthy. There's more than that. Those are just ones off top my head. But those guys, it's, you never know how those shake out. And there's someone comes out nowhere, any of those types of things. But just long story short, you just don't know. It's a lot. We all try to predict everything, but that's what's awesome about football, NFL and college.
Starting point is 00:07:43 And prospects, the draft, which is basically the third league of football is the NFL draft is you never know. And that's what I think is awesome about this game. But that's what also makes it so hard to predict and sometimes so fresh. straight. If you're a banish fan, I can understand wanting that sort of certainty and being like, well, if we're going to have these picks, and we can't get a quarterback anyway, why does it matter? Just know that the general manager of the football team put the franchise in the correct position heading into this offseason and heading into this season. That's all. Take solace in that. Just take a deep breath. Don't worry about who the top two quarterbacks are going to be. Don't worry about where those picks
Starting point is 00:08:19 are going to land or who teams are going to get them. Just understand everything that could be done has been done. When there's positives of if the season goes well, mediocre or bad, and there's still positives to take away, that's, you're in a good spot. You're in a very good spot. Yes. No matter what happens, there'll be something to be happy about. All right. Next one here. Wendell Ferreira says, first, love the work that you do. Second, I find it funny than when you you guys mentioned Mike McCarthy, it's usually in a bad, critical way. Well, there's a much more positive vibe around Sean Peyton. That's not just you. It looks to be a general perception. Well, I understand Peyton is probably a better offensive play caller and designer.
Starting point is 00:08:53 Their results as head coaches are relatively similar. Similar to winning percentage, McCarthy has more playoff appearances and wins, and the same amount of Super Bowl rings. McCarthy has a perception of his tenure in Green Bay affected by Aaron Rogers, but Peyton also had a future Hall of Famer as his quarterback in New Orleans. And while Drew Breeze wasn't as good without Peyton and San Diego, Rogers' 2005 preseason highlights are so far from what he put on the field after the McCarthy QB school, which was a real thing.
Starting point is 00:09:15 And now in Dallas, McCarthy has had two 12-1 seasons after the Cowboys had two 12-1 seasons between 2008 and 2019. Genuinely curious to understand why you think Sean Payton's narrative is much more positive in which areas you think he's better than McCarthy. It's a good question. I have answers, but it's a good question. Yeah. It's hard to overcome some stigmas. I think, and some of those stick. I mean,
Starting point is 00:09:37 my first thought of Mike McCarthy, and whether this is fair or not, is when he threw the challenge flag and Jordy Nelson ran on the field and grabbed it. Do you remember that game? But those are in my head or the Eagles. The decisions in the NFC. championship game against the Seahawks and the conservative moments that kind of led to some real, led to some real pain. I would say last year was his best game management performance as a head coach, which is,
Starting point is 00:10:00 you know, number one thing if you're not calling plays, but he's calling plays now. Or last year was when he there, I believe they're playing the Eagles on Sunday or Monday night, but a night game. You know, they're kind of, like, this was in 2021, really kind of blowing through them, like, could have really put him out by halftime. There was like a minute and a half to go, a minute and 20 to go. and he didn't burn a time out. And the egos were about to punt.
Starting point is 00:10:22 But like certain things like that, that's really hard to like get out of my head. Because it's like it's happened. It's not like, again, this is not just ideas or, you know, what we think of the guy. These are things, tangible things that the head coach can affect.
Starting point is 00:10:34 I will say this too is that, uh, he has been a bit of a joke. There should be respect given to what he did do, especially last year when DAC was out and how the Cowboys keep winning games. They do, you know, maybe not at those times the last. couple years, the best rosters.
Starting point is 00:10:50 And they got, he really did maximize a lot of it. And there should be some credit to that. But I don't know. There's just some, the McCarthy QB school was really to me. It was just he just had Tedford, Aaron Rogers came out with the Jeff Tedford, like shoulder rack thing where he had the ball high and he just dropped it down. Like to me, because if you watch those old Cal highlights, it's like, oh, there was some zip there. There's some plenty arm with, with Aaron Rogers there. That's why he was a first round pick.
Starting point is 00:11:15 So those things are just hard to get on my head. I have more to this. but I think those are just the initial thoughts. And he is a genuine solid coach. It seems like a good guy and his players do like him. But it's just some of those stigmas are really hard to get out of my brain. For most of his career in Green Bay or most of his tenure in Green Bay, yeah, they're winning 10, 11 games a season and going to the playoffs and they have top 10 offenses.
Starting point is 00:11:34 But the fall off that Mike McCarthy had with his Hall of Fame quarterback still able to play at a very high level, which we saw in the couple of years under LaFleur, that never happened with Sean Peyton. So Sean Payton with Drew Breeze in New Orleans, okay, from their first 14 seasons together. They finished in the top 10 and offensive DVOA 12 times in 14 seasons. Yeah. The other two years, they were 11th and 12th. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:12:01 And so the- Always had above average offense. Always. Period. Always. The three seven and nine seasons that they had, that stretch where they weren't making the playoffs, they were 32nd, 32nd, and 27th in EPA every play on defense. Yeah, the defenses are awful.
Starting point is 00:12:14 They're so much fun. Historically bad. So much fun to go against, by the way, for teams going against something. They were unbelievably bad. Like unbelievably bad. Okay. And as the head coach, you are tasked with trying to give yourself a defensive coordinator that doesn't allow that to happen. So you can give him, you can criticize him there.
Starting point is 00:12:29 And the same thing goes for the Cowboys success being driven a lot by what their defense has been over the last couple of seasons. You have to give Mike McCarthy credit for moving on from Mike Nolan and going to get a guy like Dan Quinn. But I think purely from like the offensive play call or an offensive design standpoint, Sean Peyton, really never lost the juice. In 2021, which is the year where they finished in the bottom half of the league, bottom third of the league, and the EPA per play on offense, they were ninth in EPA per dropback when James was playing quarterback. If James stays healthy that year, they're probably like a top 12 offense.
Starting point is 00:13:00 Teddy was 16th in EPA per dropback during his time in 2019 when Breeze got hurt. They've gotten good results out of their backup quarterbacks when those back quarterbacks have played. It's only when they've had to go further down the line for one year that the offense was below average. So I just think that tail end, just slant flat set of jokes about Mike McCarthy during the end in Green Bay. That to me is a lot of like the stink on Mike McCarthy is that it didn't end well. And he hasn't been the architect of the offense since then.
Starting point is 00:13:28 So we haven't really had reason to say, okay, like he's learned from his mistakes. He's bounced back in a way that somebody like Dan Quinn has. So this year, I think is going to go a very, very long way in how we think about, talk about consider Mike McCarthy. Yeah. It's, that's what's hard. It's hard to get those last few years out because what the Packers were doing at the turn of the aughts. So 2010-ish, I'll just say that.
Starting point is 00:13:55 It was that sort of phrase anyone's ever used. But at the start of the new decade was, you know, everybody was running cover two. And what they were doing was a lot of stuff that beat cover two. And it was great. And it's fantastic. And it really mattered because that was the meta at the time. And it just seemed that they never adapted. They never took that next step with the offense.
Starting point is 00:14:13 They kind of just stayed the same. And that's where the joke from the slant flats comes from. And even the offense by the end for better for worse was mainly, it was kind of a lot of Rogers going rogue. And like you can say that, oh, that's Rogers and everything. But that's still on the head coach because you got to communicate it and like get him to buy in, much like LaFleur did. LaFleur got that buy in.
Starting point is 00:14:31 You've mentioned it several times how the first year was growing pains together and then he got him to buy in or just compromise on some things. And that's on the coaches. I mean, whether it's fair or not, you have to get the players to buy in. And I remember hearing from a coach there with the Packers was that they couldn't. Yeah, I'll tell the story. Screw it. They were hearing from a coach there.
Starting point is 00:14:51 And he said by the last year there, the last two years there, Rogers was signaling to the receivers. And they truly had no idea what he was signaling because Rogers was just making it up with his players. Like just going like, hey, this is a signal this week, out of yada, which has become a thing because there's articles written about that. Yeah, K. K1 wrote one. Yeah, K1 wrote one. But it's like, that's kind of weird to hear about. an NFL freaking offense where the coach's head, because they would call the play and he would do his
Starting point is 00:15:16 signals and as me as a quality control coach, I could relate to this. What do you just check to? Usually you know and they had no idea. But that's just speaks with the end day Packers like offense was like. It was a lot of that. So and then, yeah, under credit to Sean Peyton is that all those points you just brought up, I was going to make similar ones. When Teddy Bridgewater at Tassum Hill was a quarterback, it still was a tangible sound offense that adapted. And you can just feel. his fingerprints on everything. And that just speaks to him as an offensive mind. That's why I give him so much credit.
Starting point is 00:15:47 And also the influence that I know that he has in personnel evaluation. And I think that good and bad. But I think that's why I maybe sometimes give him a lot of credit because he, to me, is just a true offensive mind that I could see his tangible work week and week out with Drew Brees and without him. All right. Next one here. Zachary Walker says,
Starting point is 00:16:13 says my question is more of a personal one. It's about both of your father's coaching you. I have a six-week-old daughter, and I coach cross-country and track at our middle school. It feels inevitable that I will coach her at some point. Did your father's coach you in a certain way that you found to be beneficial for your development as an athlete and a person? For instance, when I coach, I always use personal stories to motivate kids. I'll say the attitude, if you fail, it's okay.
Starting point is 00:16:32 It just means we had a strategy that didn't work, and we can fix that. I'm worried that she may not be as accepting of those messages because she's heard the stories or she feels more pressure because she's my daughter. I felt compelled to answer this because I recently stumbled upon some stuff for my dad that I thought it was cool to see and like it was a few different examples of it. But how would you answer this question? Oh. So I was very, very lucky.
Starting point is 00:16:53 Speaking of Sean Peyton, remember he took the year off and coached his. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Yeah. It made a movie out of it. They, uh, but my dad from six through eighth grade coached my football and basketball teams. During the season, he would take, when he was the assistant coach with Danny Green, he was like,
Starting point is 00:17:10 hey, I'm going to take an hour off on Monday. And Danny Green would be like, hey, as long as you finish your work and So my dad, at the time, I didn't think it was as big of a deal. But now when I got into coaching, I was like, wow, that was really special that he was doing those things. Yeah. And, you know, you'd be there until two in the morning, whatever he was doing. But it was pretty cool. It's something I looked back on fondly.
Starting point is 00:17:28 But he coached me hard. And he was, he never wanted to be that player's dad that everyone goes, oh, he's soft on him. He's soft on his kid. He plays favorites with his kid. If anything, he made me the, my, he was, if you saw it, you'd be like, oh, that's his least favorite player. right there. And that was me. And yeah, so that's what my dad did. And honestly, it turned out, that's how I like to be coached. Even if I wouldn't think that, I like to be coached hard. It's just that how my dad coaches, and I really do think he's a genuine good coach in all
Starting point is 00:17:58 sports that I've seen him do it, is he knew how to adapt his coaching based on players. And for me, it was coached hard, but then he loved you up afterwards. Yeah. It was a lot of get after you, chill for a minute. And they'd be like, hey, you see what I'm saying? You see what I'm saying there? And it turns out, you know who else coached me like that? Paul Christ. And it was like, those, that's the coaching I liked. I didn't know that at the time. But yeah, so there was a lot of benefit of that, but coaching me hard because I was the coach's kid was I actually something I'm glad he did because I'd never had that, you know, thing about me where people were like, oh, he's soft or is easy on his son. My dad overcorrected very hard for the exact same reason. He was much more
Starting point is 00:18:33 harder on me than everyone else. And he would say that to be like, listen, I just expect more from you and I don't like. And that was always the thing. And I, there were times where hated my dad. And like during those stretches, remember one year, in eighth grade and eighth grade was like I was like you know I was knowing the youngest kid on the team was last year of middle school so like you're the eighth graders like I was the best player on the team and he was just like he's relentless he was absolutely relentless and I like literally like I got in a fight with him in practice and one of the other my buddy's dads drove me home and I like wrote my dad a letter about how I was quitting the football team I was like I can't do this anymore like you're you're an asshole and it's funny because that the same kid who drove me home that day who was friends with me in middle school after my dad died he wrote me a letter. And I saved it. And I stumbled upon it the other day. And he wrote a letter about middle school football practices and about remembering my dad of middle school football practices and how they were in our backyard for a little while
Starting point is 00:19:26 because we didn't have like a field to practicing. And we had like an acre and a half. So we practiced in our backyard. That's so much fun. And so he would like run us and like make us do like conditioning drills and just. And my friend was just like he was like I was a fat little kid. I hated it. But he was like pushing me harder than I'd ever been pushed.
Starting point is 00:19:42 It was the first time I'd really understood like this. A coach can really take you to a place where you can't take yourself. And we lost like a pretty big game that year. We got our shit kicked out of us by like Libertyville or something. And who was like a really a powerhouse at the time in Illinois high school football. And he's like, your dad didn't like yell. He wasn't upset because all he wanted was did you give your best? And for me and that was it.
Starting point is 00:20:07 Like can you make sure at the end of the day you can look me in the eye, your teammates in the eye, yourself in the eye and say, I did everything I could today. And for me, in his and mind, that was, if I gave my best, I would do the best. And so when I fell short of that, it was always like, well, you clearly didn't give your best. So it's understanding that like there's only so much you can control, but making sure that people get, they squeeze every ounce out of it. I guess is how I would describe it. And that's how he coached me. And that's how I've always appreciated the people who coached me.
Starting point is 00:20:35 It's not about the results. Like did you know you gave everything that you have and you're talented enough where those results should be pretty good? And that's always how I've tried to take it into work life. Let me just like, did I squeeze every ounce out of this that I could? And if the answer is yes, then like I can't do anything else. And we'll see what happens. But that's how he coached me. I actually get kind of frustrated about my dad because he kind of tainted my view on a lot of other coaches because I knew they were good coaches, even at a young age.
Starting point is 00:21:02 And it was kind of similar reasons. Like basketball is my dad's favorite sport. And when you coached our basketball team, a lot of my best friends are kids. I played basketball with in middle school. And they all talked about was just how much cardio we did. It's how much running we did. Because his theory was, okay, we know,
Starting point is 00:21:19 we got a little, a bunch of middle-sized, you know, suburban white dudes. So what are we going to do? We're going to press all game. And that's what we did. That's how we went. We shot and pressed. And that's how he was like,
Starting point is 00:21:29 how do you do that? Cardio. And even, you know, seventh graders, eighth graders, just running back killers, just free throws and killers over and over. But that's how we did it.
Starting point is 00:21:38 And the sport, I actually looked back fondly, it was baseball, which was my favorite sport growing up and probably the sport I was best at. And my dad would coach it, but he would just do the scorebook because he was like, I don't know, I don't know much about this. But it was actually the most, it was the offseason for football. So that was the one I worked a lot with him at. But that was the one I was the toughest on myself about.
Starting point is 00:21:58 If I struck out, I cried like up until about eighth grade. And I realize how embarrassing that is to say. But I'm, I'm a very, very competitive person. And he would kind of laugh at me and kind of just go, hey, you're okay. You're okay. It's one out. Like, you're going to be fine. That was the time he loved me up the most, which was so funny because that was the hardest
Starting point is 00:22:14 I was on myself. But it was kind of, it was a balance. It depended on the sport. But basketball, he was so tough on me. And I loved it. I really did. Looking back, I really, really loved how he did it. And just like you said, he just wanted the best for not just me, but everyone that he coach,
Starting point is 00:22:27 which I think is so cool. It was really cool to me that when my dad died, we had a memorial for him, like, a month and a half later. And so many of the guys who were the first guys there and the last guys to leave, I remember, like, sitting around like a fire. pit with them just like smoking cigars just like until deep hours of the night that night were all guys i played football with in high school and that my dad coached when we were in middle school that's all and just guys that he they he really they really loved him you know and i think that
Starting point is 00:22:52 all those years later the fact that he could still kind of draw up those feelings from those guys i think it really was a testament to like what they thought he got out of them which i really appreciated all right it's it's awesome i'm glad we got to answer that that was lovely yeah you know it's a It's a fairly personal question, but I really appreciate Zach sending it along because I think that he clearly wanted an answer. So, all right, Bellar, let's get to our next voicemail here. Let's get back to the silly stuff. Hey, Robert. This is Nick from Richmond, the obligatory I love the show.
Starting point is 00:23:24 And I'm not, hi, me too. I love really both of you guys. You guys, like, fill my morning for you and day with joy and knowledge. I was thinking this is like the time of the year for it about like what makes a good GM and what makes a bad GM. right and full disclosure I'm a bills fan so I was thinking about this within the context of like Leonard Floyd signing by Brandon Bean you know like one of those things that I've always liked about some GMs is that they will just like fill a need they have no matter what like you know take howie roseman for example right he needs a wide receiver and so he picks jlin rigger
Starting point is 00:23:59 miss jay or take a white side you know miss but you know eventually he does get a j.J. Brown to the draft and then DeBontza Smith. And so it's like the sunk cost fallacy meets resource allocation. Is that what makes a good GM? Just like beyond the obvious getting yourself in and out of like cap hell. This is, it's a very simple question.
Starting point is 00:24:23 And one we've touched on in a bunch of different ways, but I think that the Leonard Floyd thing and the Eagles wide receiver thing is a very good example in that don't get painted into a corner because you've already made one decision. Don't throw good money after bad. Like you said, sunk cost fallacy. Don't let the fact that we already took a receiver. We have to see this through dictate your decision making.
Starting point is 00:24:42 I think it's just about being proactive and about problem solving while not leveraging yourself into future years. So can you be proactive and solve problems while also maintaining flexibility? Like at its core, I think that is what makes a good decision maker in professional football. Yep. Flexibility, of course. And then I kind of narrowed it down to I think the main things are self-awareness of your team. and where you're at, awareness of the landscape of your division conference and the NFL as a whole. And that's just not personnel scouting.
Starting point is 00:25:13 But that is personal scouting, personnel scouting, but it's also just everything where they are with their cap situation, where everything. All the data, you can get all the variables. And then putting in the work to turn over every stone possible. I think that's the, a lot of Howie Roseman's magic, I think, is just turned, the red paper clip. We're just turning this into that and that and that and that. And also, it's like, wow, we just did, we just got three first round picks this year. just always trying to turn over every stone signing those one year vets just always work in the trade market working the phone so i think narrowing it down to stuff like that is what i would consider are good gms and that comes in different ways holly roseman's the good version of it right now but yeah those types of things self-awareness though i think is the number one thing
Starting point is 00:25:55 that is not giving blake bordels an extension because of a stretch of okay play you know it's actual good stuff or knowing when you're it's a sunk cost like you got the policy of that like any of those types of things, but awareness is a big, big thing. Yeah. I think that understanding like the right bets to take, you know, pointed, concentrated aggression in the right moments. You know, I think that like the Leonard Floyd thing is, it's one year, seven million. It's, he has a two million dollar cap in next year and then it's all dead money years on top of that. So it's just like, all right, you know, like that's not going to sink us, but it's like a bit of cap accounting where it allows us to be a little bit more aggressive this year. And like we haven't found the right pass rush combination. We need to. Like, we need to make sure that we solve this problem. And I think that being willing
Starting point is 00:26:36 to kind of take swing after swing in those moments, there's something to be said about that, because eventually if you hit it, you're going to be in the right situation. And I think that if you look at the resource restraints, resource constraints that the bills had this year where they've given out a lot of big money contracts, they don't necessarily have a lot of the flexibility to sign big money free agents anymore. But they went out and did, they got Taylor Rap. They signed Leonard Floyd. They went out, Puna Ford.
Starting point is 00:26:59 They remade, you know, the kind of the physicality of their offensive line and what they can do with some of the two tight endsets. And again, just like, all right, let's. to make sure we're always moving forward, but still understanding at our core who we are in the best way to improve. They got on base. It was just over and over and over with these signings, and I love that. Again, I liked what the bills did this off season because, again, it was awareness of what they are, but it was also very, very good without kneecapping their situation,
Starting point is 00:27:23 which I just like, I really like what they did. Brian Donnelly asks, at the risk of beating a dead horse, I was thinking about what you discussed the most recent mailback about schemes being better suited or worse suited to better talent. And trying to synthesize that with what happened with the Eagles defense against top quarterbacks last year. Obviously, they're an extremely talented roster and impressive raw numbers, four guys with 10 sacks, etc. But he also saw DAC go like 23 for 25 against Zone looks in the regular season matchup,
Starting point is 00:27:48 and Patrick Mahomes go untouched for the entire Super Bowl and beat Kaiser White in a foot race on one leg. Hindsight is 2020, but even in the moment, Ganneng's unwillingness to change his approach or make adjustments in game felt like a fatal flaw. With Sean decide bringing in another, being another big fanjo disciple, will probably see a lot of the same concepts. So my question is, are the lapses in rigidity we saw endemic to a Vic Fangio scheme that is centered on preventing explosive plays? Or are those specific play-calling schematic tendencies unique to Gannon's execution or philosophy?
Starting point is 00:28:17 What indications are there from an overperforming Seattle defense last year to suggest 2023 might look different? It's a, they're cut from the same cloth. So if Eagles fans were a little frustrated last year with the lack of aggression or anything like that, I don't think there's going to be much to change. The Eagles, I'll just say this real quick. It's a defense that needs smart players and aware players, and it goes to die if it doesn't have that.
Starting point is 00:28:44 And I think the Seahawks and the Eagles last year were a good case study of why you need the horses to have this truly work. Yes, it can limit the big plays and everything, but you still need players to make plays, whether that's the front four getting home or having Bradbury, like, intercept Trevor Lawrence because how he reads the play out. You put your players in position to make those plays because you're asking them to do fairly simplistic things over and over so they generate more awareness and they have more reps at it. But the thing is, the Eagles had some horses. The Seahawks didn't.
Starting point is 00:29:17 And that's why one finished in the bottom half and like DVOA and everything in a defense and the other was one of the better defenses in the league last year. But last year, the Eagles were middle of the pack and blitzing. Seahawks were dead last and blitz rate last year, dead last. So that right there is already like, well, it's kind of a cranked up version. And that might have been because the Seahawks did not trust who they had to like maybe limit those big plays if they did bring a blitz. But it's really even more of a true version of this type of defense than maybe even Gannon was running. But they're cut from the same clause.
Starting point is 00:29:51 So there's not much more to add than that. It's kind of going to feel a lot more of the same. They both ran mostly quarters. And I'd say the Seahawks ran more cover six and the Eagles ran a tad more man coverage. Really, that's the differences right there, but it's not too much. They're singing the same tune. Well, I would go back to the 2021 Bears when Sean decided was actually the defensive coordinator. So he was actually the one calling the plays consistently.
Starting point is 00:30:14 Okay. And then some of the numbers there. So last year, the Eagles used cover six, which is quarter quarter half on 8% of early downs. Eight. Okay. That was like middle of the pack in the NFL. The Bears use it on 21.1% of the early downs in 2021. And that was right in line with what Vic Fangio himself did on early downs in 2021.
Starting point is 00:30:37 It was about 20%. And Seahks were 23% last year. So it's, that is just one example. Okay. And then in 2021 on third down, the Bears played man on 40% of their snaps on third down. That was the eighth highest rate in the league. Last year, the Eagles were at 25% man on third down, which was 25th in the NFL. Yeah, I was going to say that's not high.
Starting point is 00:31:00 So it's just little tiny differences like that. And I think I talked about this when we were talking about the new defensive coordinator show. But I was talking to a head coach this spring. We're just talking about wanting a certain defensive scheme and how you try to get that and you try to grab those ideas when you're looking to hire someone. But then when it doesn't go right, you're kind of left with this conclusion of who's calling it matters. Even if the actual construction and the bones of the defense are similar, the individual play caller is going to put his own little. spin on it. Like what some of the shit that.
Starting point is 00:31:33 DeMeco Ryan's a song. Yeah. Musician covering a song. It's all. It's going to be a little different. Yeah. Yeah. So even if like the mindset and the philosophy is the same, how you're calling it, when
Starting point is 00:31:44 you're calling it, what some of the little tweaks look like can be different. And it can feel really different. Okay. Think about what. So like, I have an offensive version of this. Joe Lombardi running exact Sean Payton offense. Yes. Or how much, how different that looked.
Starting point is 00:31:59 Okay. have another good example. Okay. The, if you think about like the tree that they come from, right? A Gero Evereaux being like on the staley Fangio tree and then what the Vikings were doing under Ed Donatel last year. Right. It looks very different.
Starting point is 00:32:15 It feels very different. And that's, that's a difference in blitz rate. And so that's level of aggressiveness may be more similar here in the Eagles case. But I wouldn't let the, ah, it's from the same defensive tree. It's going to be the same results thing. Don't worry about that.
Starting point is 00:32:29 Like, and enough where the guy calling it and the little dials that you're turning, that can make all the difference in the world. Same menu. People order different things. That's kind of what they're working off. Or they just increase some usage of some things. But no, it's a great point to make.
Starting point is 00:32:45 It really does matter who is calling what plays. It's on offense and defense. I mean, offense, of course, is my background and I see it all the time. Mike McDaniels around the same stuff, Shannon is running, but it's different. Like, it's just a little bit of different twist, you know, on it. the personnel and also just like what play they emphasized because of the personnel. And Mike McDaniel did a fantastic job of doing it. But defensively, it's the same thing.
Starting point is 00:33:08 I mean, there's so many offenses we got, or defenses we got frustrated with the last year or two, like the Brown's defense, you know, or even the Packers defense with Joe Barry. Like those guys, those defenses. Yeah, it's got a good example. Yeah. They're limiting explosive plays. Yeah, they're doing the stuff in theory, but it's like, is it working?
Starting point is 00:33:26 Like, you know, you're still frustrated. You still feel like they're still giving up. gashes are still not creating enough explosives for the defense. So again, I think that's a fantastic point to make is that it might be singing the same tune, but it really matters who is the artists actually doing it, actually covering this stuff. Next one here, Dale Drummond says, based on regular season record, which division would you put in the top three for 2023? And in what order? So essentially, what are the three best divisions in the NFL? He said, AFC North one, NFC East two, AFC East three. What is your list?
Starting point is 00:33:57 I think AFC East is one, AFC North is two. That to me is, I think those are two, like, and then it's a gap. I think the AFC East, just look at the defenses of all four teams. All four defense is a legit be top ten defenses. And on top of that, their all offenses are interesting in different ways. Patriots is a little bit morbid curiosity, but all interesting. And then I went AFC North for the reasons, but, you know, you got Bengals, Ravens,
Starting point is 00:34:23 Steelers are going to be interesting this year. Browns are going to be very interesting this year. pretty good. And then I went, I originally went AFC West, but then actually I talked it out, I went to FC East at three, just because the Eagles, Cowboys, and then some friscieness from either the commanders or the Giants, I think, in there. So if you look at over under win totals, if you just added them up for each division, who do you think is number one?
Starting point is 00:34:50 What would be IFC East? AFC North. AFC North is 37 and a half for the four teams combined. Which is a ton. You said 47.5. 37. 37. 37.
Starting point is 00:35:05 37 and a half. Yeah. Yeah. That's more than nine wins a team. Nine a game. Yes. It's good. Nine a team.
Starting point is 00:35:13 Yeah. So that's number one. Okay. The AFC East is at 37. Okay. The NFC East is at 35. Okay. The AFC West is 37.
Starting point is 00:35:25 Okay. Because the chiefs obviously really high. the Chargers were really high, and the Broncos are at eight and a half. I was going to say the Broncos are better than people realize. So the reason that I went AFC East number one, just because I understand the AFC North, like being just a little bit ahead of them in terms of the numbers, but I think the dolphins have a chance to be really good, especially on defense. And the Jets, I really do think if Rogers is engaged, like their ceiling is just so, so high. Even if the number for the Jets and the Steelers is relatively similar, I just feel better about the ceiling that the Jets have.
Starting point is 00:35:58 the ceiling that the dolphins have versus the ceiling that a team like the Steelers has. And the Browns are still a theoretical thing because we don't know about the quarterback play. So that's why I give the AFC East the nod, but I would put AFC North second. And then I would put the NFC East third because I just have more faith. Yeah, I think that is the E third. This is what I did. When I prepped for this, that's exact same thing I did. I went east to the AFC West and back to the east once I kind of thought it out a little bit.
Starting point is 00:36:28 Because I just have more faith in the Giants coaching staff and the Giants infrastructure than I do the Broncos right now. And I think the Raiders have a chance to be like truly bad. Right. Truly bad. The Raiders' badness is what tipped it to the east for me because I think the commanders and Giants are both in a way better spot than even the commanders are in a way better spot than the Raiders.
Starting point is 00:36:49 Yeah, I think that's fair. And Washington's over under is one game less than the Raiders. I think the Raiders are at 7.5 and Washington's at 6. half. So we're talking about AFC West having a higher total. That's driving part of it. I mean, that almost explains the gap right there. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:04 I guess having a fifth round second year quarterback is kind of something that might be doing that or holding down that win loss total. No, this is fun. I got to think it out a little bit. I hadn't thought about it. I was like, who's the best efficient in the NFL this year? Because the AFC West last year was the easy answer, the entire off season. So now it's like, I think it's the AAC East just because of the ceiling.
Starting point is 00:37:24 and then I think I'd go AFC north after that. Yes. Central time and East Coast time at AFC is a lot of bloodbass this year. A lot of bloodbass in those divisions this year. This question was very funny. Alex Watson says, Gerard Mayo has been a coaching name on the rise for a couple seasons now. What are each of your top five condiments? So you sent me this over.
Starting point is 00:37:46 I thought it was a typo. Like two questions got merged together. And then I realized what happened. And yeah, fantastic question. Probably I love this. on so much. All right, why we go? Get into this? I think a late riser to my number one spot, and this is a recent riser. This might be the Patrick Mahomes, I guess, into goat status for me, is hot honey. Hot honey is fantastic. I almost put hot honey on my list. I actually at first,
Starting point is 00:38:15 it just was like fifth, and it arose the rankings. Do you have some at home? Yeah, oh, yeah. Okay. Casey got some recently. It went from packets to the small, to the actual like one they give restaurant bottle. Just like the big Mike's bottle. Yeah. Big boy. Yeah. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:30 So and I, and I know this is a line for a different, different type of condiment, but I put that shit on everything. Like, I really do. But, but speaking of that, my number two is a really,
Starting point is 00:38:42 really good classic buffalo sauce. Um, just a Franks hot sauce, butter, cayenne pepper, horser sauce, garlic powder vinegar. Anyone that uses those ingredients does it well. I'm,
Starting point is 00:38:50 I love it. I don't know why I was a very picky eater as a kid. So love my chicken fingers with some buffalo sauce, but it's evolved from that. But I just really like that. I like a thousand island or a special sauce type variety, you know, because that's kind of cut from the same cloth. So I like that. Ranch. After all those words, just ranch, this four.
Starting point is 00:39:11 And then I have ketchup five. I just, I threw it in ketchup out there. But that one probably like a cop out. I couldn't really think of a fifth one to hold the banner. So I went with ketchup. Very curious what your answer is. I didn't, a lot of them, I didn't want to go like hyper specific, like restaurant versions of them. So if we were doing a little bit of that, like, I love Chick-fil-A sauce.
Starting point is 00:39:26 I love the Black and Ranch from Popeyes. I've already discussed that. The creamy jalapeno sauce from Taco Bell is amazing. That is a Taco Bell hack. Substituted for stuff and ask for extra on the stuff you're getting. You'll be a happy, happy man. So I didn't want to go with those because they were a little bit too hyper-specific. Okay.
Starting point is 00:39:43 So I had a tough battle with like five and six. And I don't know if this is considered a condiment so we can discuss that. Okay. One of my contenders for five was ranch. but only restaurant or pizza place ranch, not like Hidden Valley Ranch. I want something that's like so thick that it's like, it like causes a sound when it drops back into the container.
Starting point is 00:40:07 I agree with that. When I said ranch, I'm thinking of like a really good ranch that I get at a restaurant or like you said, a pizza place. The Chili's Ranch. You ever had Ranch at Chili's? The Chili's Ranch is insane. That ranch is what I want.
Starting point is 00:40:19 That's the ranch I'm talking about. Actually, yes. their ranch Buffalo Wild Wings has a really good ranch of all places and like Applebee's has a good ranch where the actual nutritional facts would horrify me like I would never want to know about that that okay so that's that was in contention for five is Pesto a condiment I'll give it to you I love I love but yeah no I'll get that to you I love Pesto like I some of my pizzas are like the the tie I were talking about this this week the the tie-dye pizza from Rubiroza in New York.
Starting point is 00:40:54 It's a vodka sauce with like a spiral of pesto in it. Pesto on a sandwich I love. So Pesto is in the conversation. What's the pizza place we went to in Chicago this week, by the way? Middle Brow. Bungleow by Middlebrow. Everyone check it out. Very, very good.
Starting point is 00:41:07 Very, very good. They do tavern-style pizza on Thursdays, and it is fantastic. Yeah, I ate an entire pizza by myself easily. It was very good. I don't know if anyone noticed me in the corner. Actually, in the picture, you can kind of see me working at it. I kind of had a little pepperoni pie to myself over there. And I kind of went at it.
Starting point is 00:41:23 I'd even reach for other part. I tried the special, a couple pieces of special and a couple of the sausage. But then no, everyone else was trying those. I just kept that just chipping away, chipping away at the other one at the pepperoni one. That was right in front of me. Fantastic spot though. Great call. There of tavern.
Starting point is 00:41:38 So it's very, very good. I'm glad you guys got to try it. Okay. So five like pesto like restaurant ranch. I love four. I love curry ketchup. Oh. If I'm ordering like a fries with an.
Starting point is 00:41:51 ray of dips, which is something I will enjoy every once in a while. A curry ketchup is always one of them. If they have a curry ketchup, I'm getting it. There's a place in Lincoln Park in Chicago where they have like a garbage fries, like it's just like a loaded fries. And the two dips that come with it are garlic aoli and curry ketchup. And I'm like, this is it. I love a very good curry ketchup. So that's in there for me. I like that. I love the Chulula line of hot sauces. So regular Chulula and the Cholula are my two favorites. I love how tangy regular Chulula is. And I really like the Chippolee one. So like Chulula hot sauce. are in there. I do, I like a good hot sauce. Number two for me was Dijon mustard for
Starting point is 00:42:27 for multiple reasons. I, I like it just on a sandwich, but Dijon mustard as a base for sauces. So like dressings. I just made one last week with it. I just love how versatile Dijon Dijon mustard is. So like if mustard, that's like my favorite one because of all the things you can do with it. And number one, very similar reason. Number one is mayonnaise because you can make a hundred things out of mayonnaise. It is the basis for like so many good condiments. I can make a chappole mayo. I can make a saracha mayo. Also, the other thing for Dejan mustard, honey mustard. You can make honey mustard out of Dejan mustard. And I fucking love honey mustard. So that's why I was on there. And like, honey mustard is going to be there, but I want it to be a little bit more
Starting point is 00:43:10 flexible. So that's why I wanted to mention that. But mayo, it's like you can make a hundred different things out of mayo. So so many different sauces. So that's why I think it's number one. It's really funny. You say that. The people, people that love honey mustard, love honey mustard. I also, I love honey mustard. I think my, I think my dad's a big honey mustard guy as well.
Starting point is 00:43:27 But like people that like it, love it. And then I'm, I'm indifferent. I'm, but I'm like, I'm kind of indifferent on it. I do want to throw on one,
Starting point is 00:43:34 maybe my like, obscure pick would be like a, a peanut butter curry because you say curry and I just made me think of it. I love peanut. I love peanut sauce. Like peanut sauce. Like peanut sauce or like a tie peanut sauce. Like a peanut butter.
Starting point is 00:43:47 A tie peanut sauce I do enjoy. That would be like kind of my like, like off the beaten path pick because I freaking love that when people do it right. It's so good. Some people make it spicy. I like spice. So, yeah, that's, I'm always going to lean that way. Casey makes a lot of peanut sauce.
Starting point is 00:44:02 So just like whip it up and put it on something. But yeah, like you can put a spicy mayo on a burger. You can put a spicy mayo on like a lot of Asian dishes. Like any, mayo being the basis for so many different condiments that I like, I think that's why it has to be number one. And I'll just put like normal mayo and a sandwich. Yeah. Well, that's for number one.
Starting point is 00:44:18 Garlic aoli. Like just so many different things. I just mayo has to be number one. All right. Next one. Bennett Garland. So I love the show dearly, especially now that you all weekly prop up my dirty bird optimism, that will surely rip up my heart as it always does.
Starting point is 00:44:32 Bennett's question is essentially, what does a biweek look like and why is it a chance for a guy to have like a lot of individual development over the course of that, you know? What does the extra week look like for a rookie that allows them to settle in? It seems like a relatively small amount of time for such big leaps and big leaps in development to occur. I'm fascinated to understand how teams plan for that time. I think to first kind of explain why it matters or why there is usually some growth there is to start with going over what a rookie's past year looks like. They go straight from their last season into All Star Games, into training for the Combine, into the Combine, into Pro Day, and to get drafted.
Starting point is 00:45:10 So draft stuff. It's a rookie minicamp. It's a OTA mini camp to training camp into the season. They don't get a breather, period. There's no work. This is usually their first breather. And then a normal week, the grind of the NFL season is such a real thing. And now it's 18 weeks.
Starting point is 00:45:26 But a normal week, it's Sunday game straight into Monday. And if you travel, it's an away game. It's straight to Monday rehab, review, corrections walk through. And then immediately into the next game plan Monday night. Then Tuesday, it's rehab and studying for the next game plan. That's like pre-pre. And then Wednesdays you're installing the next game plan, you're going. So there's no like, if you have a bad game or something that there's a lot of workable stuff,
Starting point is 00:45:48 you really have half a day to work on it. with a buy week, you get a whole week to do corrections to install new plays. It's also a time for coaches and players to go like, hey, we need to get George Moore reps as a pass rush around third down. We need to get this rookie as a starting nickel. Let's give them the, hey, we give them some little time. This is the time that we can do it. And now we have three, four days to actually work on it.
Starting point is 00:46:07 But by week schedule is usually like one, two or three days of meetings and install and walkthrough and corrections and going like, hey, this is something we need to clean up for a couple days, but it's walked through and it's coaching. You know, it's not just grinding, it, it's, it's trying to hit, blah, blah, blah, it's hitting. It's take your time, let's explain some things, let's coach some things, and then they get a break. And sometimes, I think anyone that's worked a hard job or any job whatsoever, how many times, like, the drive home is when you kind of, like, really go like. Absolutely. I don't, idle time is hugely important when you're not actively planning for the next thing. So I, I think the biggest
Starting point is 00:46:40 thing for me is beyond it being, like, for a rookie, I think it's a great point where it's the first time they actually get to take a breather from something. But during the NFL season, the biweek is the only time you're not actively game planning for the next game. So it's the only time that you can spend extended focus and extended thought on where we are and why we're there. So beyond like a rookie using the biweek, I think the ability to click into potentially the best version of your offense and allow it to be built around your players, through your players, be like, all right, this is who we are. This is what we do well. This is what we want to be. Having that be in week 11, that final six week stretch, you have a real change. You've a
Starting point is 00:47:17 chance to be the best version of yourself and put your quarterback in a position to really show you what he's capable of at that stage. The good coaches and the good players, but the good coaches, they'll trim away. Okay, this isn't working for us or this isn't working for this player. Throw it out. Done. Done. What's not what's not square peg, round hole it. And then they really narrow the focus or really expand upon the things that they do well at. And that's why it's really important when you see a lot of these teams when they get better after the buy because you can see what fat they trim, whether it's player or schematically. So that's why it's so interesting.
Starting point is 00:47:50 But like you said, and like what I've hinted to that is that it's the first time that you really outside, usually it's a half day and the coaches want to get through that walkthrough on Monday to get to the next game playing because it's another grind that they know they're prepping for. So that's it. You have half a day to correct any mistakes that you probably had in the game before. And if a coach is missing on a mistake over and over, the buy week's the first time they can really go, oh shoot, man, the last three weeks, we've been messing that up.
Starting point is 00:48:13 Okay, okay. And now we can actually correct it. And so, yeah, it's the first time that coaches, staff, and players can take somewhat of a breather in what is the grind of the NFL season. That's really the most important thing. Yeah. I mean, I just, again, when you're consistently having to put out the next thing, the next day, it's hard to focus on bigger picture stuff. It just becomes difficult to do that. I speak from experience.
Starting point is 00:48:34 Yeah, right. It's all walks a lot. And so I think that's the biggest thing. All right. Next one here, Scott McGuire says, I'm listening to shows since started. I'm a huge fan. I mean, mostly on ironically, where else am I going to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the Falca's interior offensive line?
Starting point is 00:48:50 I've been a bit behind on podcast this month, so I just finished the Hall of Very Good and Canton Court episodes. My question has to do with the way players are evaluated for the Hall of Fame. When you're talking about current players' performance, you use a combination of the eye test with various advanced metrics, EPA, DVOA, success rates, so on. But when talking about players of candidates for Canton, it's mostly counting stats, longevity, super bowls, and accolades, which makes some sense because that seems to be the criteria for Hall of Fame voters.
Starting point is 00:49:12 Do you think the more advanced stats will ever play a bigger role in Hall of Fame voted? My specific example is my personal dark horse candidate, Jamal Charles. He only had five exceptional seasons, so he didn't accumulate the counting stats and only had two all pros and two pro bowls. He played a bad team so he didn't have the playoff success. But in addition to running like the laws of physics didn't apply to him, his advanced stats were unreal. He averaged 5.4 yards to carry with the next best running back over 1,000 carries being Tiki Barber at 4.7. For his career, he had an EPA per carry of nearly 0.05, which is slightly better than Marshall Fonk. And his yards over expected per play was over 0.8 for his career.
Starting point is 00:49:46 So he wasn't the product of a great offensive line. Compared to that to say, Adrian Peterson's 0.18. And for a few years, he was the only weapon the chiefs had on offense. So teams knew that he was coming. Those numbers show that Charles moved the needle on offense in a way almost no running back has done this century. And my insane to think the progress of analytics might give him a chance with Hall of Fame voters. I'm hoping for this trend of smarter voters and everything. The Chris Alave discussion last year, maybe a little.
Starting point is 00:50:12 little sad. When no one really, excuse me, really latched onto that. It's happening in baseball, of course. Baseball is further ahead. Yeah. But you start to see it to emphasize more. But if you look at who makes up the NFL's or professional football's Hall of Fame Committee, it's going to be a while before we see this trend.
Starting point is 00:50:33 It is going to be a while. But think about when you open true media and you think about the people who have created their own stats in true media and like help us use it and like regularly use it in they're writing. Mike Sando's at the front of that line. I know. And Mike Sando's a Hall of Fame voter. So that is 2% of the voting committee. Yes. So, but like as the voting committee potentially starts to turn over with people who are incorporating those sorts of ideas and those sorts of metrics into their evaluations of players, I think inevitably it will become more part of these conversations. That's the thing. It will happen. It's just I think it's going to, it's going to take
Starting point is 00:51:08 a few years before we get there, before more Sandos of the world, more up-to-date. voters start to become involved. It happened in baseball. There's more, no more traditional sport than baseball. And it started to happen, I would say, in the last 15-ish years. And I think that's really cool when more people get votes. And there's more of an expanded media world out there. It's going to happen in football. Don't get me wrong. It's going to happen. I just think it will be a couple of years. But I do think absolutely it's going to happen. And I'm excited to talk about the Jamal Charles case. We've alluded to it a couple different times. I'm sure we will have the Jamal Charles conversation. I'm glad. But it's definitely coming.
Starting point is 00:51:42 All right. It's been cool to see, by way, it's cool to see people's reactions with a guy like Jamal Charles. And everyone's like going like, yeah, right? Right? He was awesome. And it's like, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:50 We know. So, yeah, I'm excited for that next summer. She's guys talking about dudes. Okay. Oh, yeah. Next one here is Zach Amen says, but Vegas present, this is a couple weeks ago, with Vegas presently one win away from the Stanley Cup in their sixth season as a franchise. How long do you think it would take an NFL expansion team to win a title if they were given
Starting point is 00:52:07 the number one pick in a draft with a can't miss quarterback, such as next year with with Caleb Williams. obviously they couldn't go on a free agent spending spree to win a title like we saw in baseball with the Marlins or debacks did early in their time with free agents. What do you think about this? Because I don't know how they will do the if they did an expansion, like what the rules would be. Because like with the Panthers and the Jaguars came in the mid-90s, they want them just do whatever. And it was like those teams, Panthers and Jags, that say Giants, but Panthers and Jaguars, once they became teams, they would contended right away. I think the Panthers made the conference championship game in their second year.
Starting point is 00:52:38 Yeah. If I remember, and the Jags were right up there too. I think that was in the 90s. And then when the Browns, the Texans came, they were like, uh-uh, we ain't doing that again. So they had a pretty tough time about it, especially the Texans expansion draft. But I would say in a modern NFL and we kind of halfway between what happened maybe with the Texans and the teams in the 90s, five, six years if they did it right. I think it's fewer than that. If they have, if they nailed a QB, if they number one pick QB and they didn't David Karum, yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:10 That's like five years. That's, that's, that's my answer. So here's how I answered this. Yeah. How close do you think the 2020 Bengals were to like a full scale expansion? Right. Okay. Right.
Starting point is 00:53:28 Yeah. Right. So here, here are the pieces on the 2020 Bengals. The non-Joe Burrow pieces. So Joe Burrow or a quarterback of Joe Burroughs Oak would be part of this discussion. So that would come along with. Yeah. But you're Joe Burrough-esque or better QB.
Starting point is 00:53:42 I think that's a great bar. Okay. So that's why I thought of it this way. So I was like, who was very close to an expansion team that landed this sort of quarterback? The 2020 Bengals had T. Higgins, who they drafted that year. So in theory, you could find a player with a 33rd pick because you'd have the number one pick in that sort of draft. They signed Von Bell in free agency that off season. Von Bell was like a $7 million a year's safety.
Starting point is 00:54:03 The cyber player you could easily find. And that's what expansion teams would be made of. Yeah. A dozen Von Bells. I mean, that-esque type of player. So that's why it's my argument, because if you have, the defense, the Bengals defense was an expansion defense. The only guys they drafted were like Sam Hubbard and Jermaine Pratt.
Starting point is 00:54:22 Those are the only guys. It was all free agents. So I think that the 2020 Bengals, I think that they went to the Super Bowl in year two of that regime. But I think in reality, last year is the first year. We're like, this is it. Like we are a complete, like, Super Bowl contending team top to bottom. and they did it in three years.
Starting point is 00:54:39 So I think if you find the quarterback and the financial flexibility you have because of the quarterback allows you to spend a tonne in free agency, you can piece together a contending team, I think, in three years. And you're not going to be tied down to a lot of bad contracts or at all because you're fresh. It's fresh books. Which again, Bengals are a very good example. They don't get tied into bad contracts. And the other one too, in recent times with a true generational quarterback or at least once in a decade was the Jacks. But Trevor Lawrence. That was the other one I was thinking about.
Starting point is 00:55:08 Yeah, yeah. But second year, they won the division, won the play, and they're in playoffs. And this year three. And this is year three. So yeah. Yeah, so three years. That, that, if you nail it three years. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:18 So three, three, four, five years. But with, how about this? Within the rookie quarterback contract that I think that's the answer. Yeah. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Just halfway point four years, four plus one. So no, I like this. I love thinking about expansion drafts.
Starting point is 00:55:32 It's something I've been looking at a lot more. I like what leagues used to do. and I think it's so fascinating. We had a very big question about expansion drafts. I'm like, all right, you can protect four players. What would you do? It was just too much for one mailbag, but it would be fun as an offseason idea to potentially do it. Yeah, put it on the sheet.
Starting point is 00:55:50 Put it on the Google Doc as a potential idea. Put that one on the menu for next year. All right, last one here. Eric Brignac says, I think I have what I think is a quick question. We talk about how sometimes play call herself out quarterbacks by giving them plays with half-field reads. I'm curious. How literal is that description?
Starting point is 00:56:12 And a half-field read is the quarterback literally only look at one half of the field. Like even if the quarterback on the other side falls down and leaves the wide receiver wide open, it doesn't matter because the quarterback, by design, has no awareness of what's going on that side of the field. Or does the half-field read still require the quarterback to look over and process the entire field? But the expectation is that his focus will be on one side. I'll let you answer this one. Yeah. It's literal.
Starting point is 00:56:34 It's actually literal. Half-field read generally, just generally means you look at the coverage pre-snap. if it's single high, which is man or cover three typically, I look at one side of the field because there's some, well, just knock the mic. Sometimes, I mean, anyone listening to this, I'm using my hands to talk, so I just knocked my mic away. But I look at this route combination because it's usually a two or three man
Starting point is 00:56:57 combination. Typically, half field reads, by the way, are two by two formations, balanced formations. So you can create a three man side with the running back and then a two man side. So usually you have your single hide side. And if it's too high and I confirm it, I go to the two. too high side and cover two or quarters. And then there's other exceptions where it's like cover two to this side, but quarters to the
Starting point is 00:57:17 other side, but generally. And it typically boils down to that. And then the other version or another version of half field reads is bootlegs or sprint outs, which are truly because of physics because I am working to one side and that's where my quarterback's inertia is working to that side and all the routes are working to that side. Those are the easiest reads. Bootlegs and sprint outs are the easiest reads for a quarterback. That's why we say those are the training that stuff is training wheels offense.
Starting point is 00:57:44 And then half field reads, I would say is the next step. I would say most offenses have versions of half field reads, but every offense kind of cranks and up and down about how much they use it. But generally a lot of two minute concepts like when you're no huddle or half field read because then you could just go their basic concepts, boom, snap the ball and it's easy for the quarterback. Defenses are in disguise when the ball's on the move and they can't, you know, get a long play call in there. but I just want to kind of clarify that. It's pretty literal. It's a true, true look at half in the field. You're going to look at the coverage, the full field,
Starting point is 00:58:16 but then after the snap, you're looking to half the field. So just want to throw that answered out there. I like that type of question, though. It's a great question. All right. That's all we got. We have one more mailback next week. One more? One more mailbag.
Starting point is 00:58:28 As always, guys, sincerely appreciate you guys sending along the questions. The rest of this week, very fun shows coming your way. Offense and defensive lessons coming your way over the. the next two shows we will do Wednesday and Friday. Some of my favorite shows that we do every single year, the lessons we're learning. We're going to do a big, deep dive on the best offenses and defenses in the league. So please come back and check those out with us. In the meantime, really appreciate you guys listening.
Starting point is 00:58:54 We'll talk to you soon. This was The Athletic Football Show.

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