The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Most valuable QB draft 2022 with Lindsay Jones & Nate Tice

Episode Date: May 19, 2022

The most valuable QB draft is back! Robert Mays, Nate Tice and Lindsay Jones draft the NFL’s top QB’s based on traits, age and contract. What did the trio learn from last year? Who will go No. 1? Which QBs didn’t make the cut? Tune in to hear their top 15.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today's Thursday, May 19th. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. What is now an annual tradition after we did it last year. We're doing a quarterback draft. Very fun show.

Always, just a great exercise. Fun to step back, kind of think about the landscape of the position in the league. We'll lay out the ground rules, how we're going to do this. Before we do that, I wanted to introduce my cohorts here. as we do our second annual quarterback draft to kick us off my good friend Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing very well. I think this was a fun.

I can't remember if we did the QB draft or the non-Cuby draft first last year. We did the quarterback draft first last year. First, okay. Yeah, that was a good way to plunge into the deep end on these discussions. So, yeah, that was a baptizing by fire there. So yeah, that was good. That was good. So I'm glad to come back and do it again, and I'm sure nobody will have opinions on it.

I'm sure no one will. And we'll go over last year's as well before we get into this year's. But also joining us today, the Athletic Zone. Lindsay Jones, Lindsay, how you doing? I'm great. I've been reviewing last year's draft and creating my own draft board because I want to get the best, like, roster of QBs, but I also want to screw with you guys. So it's really twofold here. When you're doing this, and now that this is the second time we've done it, not only do you have to have your own strategy, you have to understand. You have to understand. the people you're picking against. And this is not unlike the NFL draft. You have to know what the teams in front of you may want to do, what their tendencies are, what their specific tastes are.

So we will have to play off of that as we make these decisions to kind of formulate our strategies. A few ground rules, just so we're laying this out. Last year we did five years, the next five years. Scaling it back to four this year. This is a suggestion from Nathan, four years, maybe a little bit of a more, realistic time frame as it relates to NFL contracts. If a World Cup. Olympic, presidential terms,

five years is a long time. Five years is a long time. The only guys with five year deals are first round picks and even that is the fifth year option, which is its own thing. So four years, I think, is a good amount of time. Contracts matter here. So you take that into account. That's going to be a really enlightening part of this discussion, kind of where the financial

benchmarks are with a lot of the quarterbacks in the league right now. not as many younger, cheaper guys as you might think, especially when you take the last couple of draft classes into account, which are kind of wonky and a little bit weird. So those are the things to remember. Let's look at the 2021 version of this very quickly. Lindsay, you had the first overall pick. You, not surprisingly, went with Patrick Mahomes,

which I think is completely justifiable selection. Totally fine. It went off the rails immediately after that. Nate goes with Dak Prescott at number two. Even in the moment, I still think that's one of my favorite instances and kind of reaction moments we've had on the athletic football show in two years. How do you feel about that a year later? I have come to grips with where I established. I don't want to give too much a way where I feel about DAC, but no.

Totally fine. That was a little bit of a statement. And I think it was because I was like, everyone thinks I'm going to take Russ. No, I'm not going to take Russ. I'm going to take Dak. And then I was like, oh, yeah, there's a couple other guys I maybe could have sniped there. That had a bigger. I took him at three regrets.

I have them. And not just because of the way Russell Wilson played, but there are some guys that went a little bit later. I took Herbert at six. And I feel pretty great about that. So I took Herbert at six and then a couple guys a little bit later. I did not take Josh Allen at six because I wanted Herbert to kind of make a statement. I wish I had taken Herbert at three and Josh Allen at six.

Right. My team with Josh Allen instead of Russell Wilson, I would have had Josh Allen at three, Justin Herbert at six, Matthew Stafford at 9, Joe Burrow at 12, and Baker Mayfield was 15. But before, wait, wait, can you say that a little louder? Did you have a 15? 15. So when you get into 14, 15 in this draft, we're going to go through the same thing this year.

It gets ugly in a hurry. You got to make some tough decisions in that range. So I feel pretty damn good about the four guys I took before that. Lindsay, you took Trevor Lawrence at four. Yeah, that was like a projection and didn't really work out for me. But I did get Josh Allen at seven. Yes, he did. And then I had Kyler Murray at 10, which, you know, looked great for about half of this year.

And then I had Tom Brady at 13, and I will stand by that pick. Now you get two years. You get back for another year. Yeah. Two years. I mean, two of the five is not too bad. And we'll run into the same sort of conversations about Rogers and Brady and some of the aging guys in the league. Russ is 34.

I guess I was looking at this. I was like, Russ is pretty old now. Yeah. You had Matt Ryan at the end of this draft. Nate? Yeah. Exactly. It's in mind how old both of us are.

You had Matt Ryan at 14. Yeah. So that's, again, going to be some of the same considerations when we get into that range. So I don't want to give away too much, but those are a few of the selections that really jumped out when we look back at the 2021 version of this draft. I will say, Nate, you also had Lamar Jackson, then he had Justin Fields. Any thoughts back on those picks?

Fields, when we talk about your drafting because you're anticipating other people's picks, that was picking before Robert was Justin Fields. at 11 and then I feel good at a Lamar at eight like I actually feel pretty good about that you know two years off the MVP and then Rogers at five I feel real good about you know now two times that two time MVP two time MVP but yeah Lamar at eight that Lamar at eight that Lamar at eight that's an interesting one I'm excited once we once one of us selects him because that whole range seven eight there I think you had Stafford at nine like in Lamar at eight like that's kind of an interesting discussion it is again yeah it is again that's that range again I know I know I don't want to like get ahead of ourselves but yeah That's going to be interesting again, I think. So one tweak from last year, we were doing a snake draft this year. It just made more sense. And I was a little bit worried people picking two in a row. Is that going to sound or good?

Is that going to be fun? It's fine. We're going to pick two in a row. It's a little bit more fair. And that's how we're doing this. So five rounds, three picks around. I feel like that's half the league. I think it's a good number.

And we're doing a snake draft. I have the number one pick. You might say, well, that's convenient, Robert. You set this up. You have the number one pick fucking sucks. Picking one and then six and seven in, in this draft, I think is brutal. I would much rather be at the 3-4 turn or 2-5 where Lindsay and Nader.

So I'm not happy. You guys are picking for me, so it's great. I am not happy that I'm sitting here with the number one pick. So last year, Lindsay went with Patrick Mahomes. Totally understandable. Patrick Mahomes was the best quarterback in the NFL over the last couple seasons. I totally understand why that would happen. I'm picking Justin Herbert, and I'm going to tell you why.

I'm stunned to hear this. This is shocking information. I'm so, the least surprising pick ever. No, yeah, I knew this was coming, so I'm excited. Patrick Mahomes over the next four years will average $43.3 million. That's how much money he will make. That is totally fine.

The chiefs are going to pay that. They're never going to think about it again. They're going to be a contender, especially with the way they've offset their team build with having a lot of that ejection of young players on defense. He is a great, great player, even with a down for him, 2021 season,

he's still wildly good off the charts still. Justin Herbert, over the next three years, will make $15 million on average. And that's taking into account a $30-ish million-fifth year option if he makes another pro-bow.

He's only made one. So if he doesn't make another one, then the money goes down. But I assume he'll make the pro bowl again. So it'll be 30-ish million. Even if we assume, He'll make $40 million or so in the first year of his extension, which could be an astronomical number after the Sean Watson News,

after that money, everything else. It's still $21 million over the next four years. It's half of what the other guys are getting. It's half. So I can get Justin Herbert and $3, $8 million free agents to pair with Justin Herbert as it relates to some of the other really, really good quarterbacks on this list. I'm doing that. That is totally fine with me.

And it's the combination. You and I've talked about this a bunch. It's the floor ceiling and value combo altogether. That's why I want to do this. He was sacked 31 times on 740 dropbacks last year. It's crazy. It's a crazy number. He had the lowest, outside of Tom Brady,

the lowest turnover worthy play percentage in the NFL last season, according to PFF. And he is arguably, him and Mahomes probably, and Josh Allen right there, the most physically gifted throwers in the league. The fact that there are out of this world alien plays all of the time and he doesn't make mistakes, that combination plus the value. That's why I'm doing this. I think he is right there with all those other guys on a play-to-play basis

and what he gives you at this moment. Not even projection right now. What he's going to do this season, I think we'll compare to the best quarterbacks in the league. and he's half as cheap over the next four years. That's it. That's my reasoning. He's only entering year three. That's what's crazy.

When we talk about it, it sounds like he's been around for seven years. This is not meant to be like hot takey. I just want people to kind of listen to what I'm saying here. If I'm building a team and I've decided between Mahomes and Herbert, I think they are the top two guys. Apologies to Josh Allen. I love him too.

But those are top two guys to me. If I'm building a team, just blank. And I want to coach a guy up. I want to coach Justin Herbert more than Mahomes. because Mahomes is... See the guardrails? Yes. He, because he is a supercomputer on top of all the athletic gifts.

Yeah. He reads a field like Drew Brees does. And that's not hyperbole. He's running the exact same place. That's by some frustrations I have with that Chargers offense. But he's getting through those reads. One, two, three. Fast.

The ball goes to the right place every single time. And on top of it, he can create and throw out 80 yards, do all that fun stuff. And that's not knocking some homes. If I think I was doing this, I maybe would have got Mahomes won. But it's still. I'm just talking about it as a former coach in me. That would be who I prefer because it's just you can do whatever you want. And Mahomes sometimes is very smart and you can see the field like incredible.

He's a supercomputer as well. But sometimes he prefers to ad lib. Like that's just kind of how he wins. He likes to go one and then ad lib and make a big play. But that's how they build that offense because that's my home's the skill set. So that's just more of a preference thing. But I mean, these two guys are incredible. So I don't think you could have gone wrong either way.

Lindsay, what do you think about this? So I've been now like plotting my next several moves as I've been trying to figure out what this is going to mean for the, you know, the next, you know, six or seven picks here. Look, I get it. I absolutely get it. And I'm fine with you taking him for what, for what choices it's going to leave me here. Yeah, no, like, well, a good play with Herbert. And it's simple. I make fun of stick, the play concept stick all the time.

And there's something that Herbert does and he's thrown touchdowns on this. the chargers under Lombardi, Joe Lombardi, and what the Saints used to do with Drew Brees in the red zone, they'd run two by two sticks. So it's a mirrored concept. And on that play,

the running back will sit over the middle of the ball. And I would say 95% of quarterbacks rarely gets it to checkdown over the ball. That is like the advanced play. It's one to two. Outside in, outside in, outside in, outside in. That's what you're going. You're running that play to hit the inside out route,

stick route. And Herbert, more than once, seen him at least three times, dude, gets it to checkdown over the middle of the ball, as well as hit the other routes as well. That's Drew Breeshit. And then on top of it, he'll do the plays where, like, I think it was against the chiefs on that Thursday night game, that bonkers game late in the season. He's face masking the guy and keeping him arms length away, you know, big brothering him.

You can't hit me, you know, all that stuff and throwing the ball. It's, it's incredible. This is just mesh of skill sets. It's, he's just a tremendous player. And it's kind of funny. Some people still haven't bought into him. And it's just, he's a real. remarkable player and I'm excited to watch another week this year with an even better team around

him. We talk about getting a bucket. He was number two in the league last year in EPA for play on third down after Mahomes. Mahomes is number one over the last two years. Herbert is fourth over the last two years combined. If you kick up the actual dropbacks to 200, he's third. The only two guys ahead of him are Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rogers. He is a he is a gate show, get you a bucket player who is also mistake free. Yeah. And I just think this year, their offense could be frustrating. last year just in how condensed it could look. I also think part of that was a protection issue and a protection concern. If they feel better about him being upright this year, I think it's going to be bombs away.

I can't wait. And I'm very excited to watch what happens. So I'm totally comfortable taking him with the number one pick this year and allowing Lindsay to swipe in here and come get Patrick Moms. Oh, she goes rogue. Yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to sprint up and get Patrick Bray. I'm thinking a lot harder about it this year than I did last year. I mean, last year, you know, look, we've probably already joked on this podcast about how quickly Dan Campbell and the lions like sprinted up to turn in that Aden Hutchinson card to the point that I think the league actually got mad because they're like, we're trying to produce a television show here.

So I'm going to go, I mean, last year, that's what I did. This year I'm thinking about it a lot more. I'm taking some other things to account. I'm also knowing this is a snake draft and trying to think of what he's going to be available for me later. But look, for all the reasons we just talked about statistically what he's already accomplished in his career. for me it's Patrick Mahomes. And, you know, while last year, especially the first half of last year, was not up to the Patrick Mahomes standard. And our bar for what is success for Patrick Mahomes is so insanely high.

Yeah. What he did in his MVP season, 50 touchdowns, having already won a Super Bowl by age 25, all of these things. I mean, what we expect out of him on a quarter to quarter week to week basis is like almost. it's almost unfair to him, right? Yeah. Last year, he was not even close to living up to that standard, especially in the first half of the season. But in some of those biggest games, you know,

in that playoff game against the bills, it was fun of a game. Oh, yeah. Ever seen, I mean, delivering. They were one of the best offenses in the league. They were the best offense in the league over the last six weeks in the season. Yeah.

I mean, bucket after bucket after bucket. And I'm going to give him and Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy the benefit of the doubt here that the next, evolution of the Chief's offense is going to be just as fun, just as explosive. It doesn't have to look like what it did in 2019 or 2018. It doesn't have to look like that. And it's not going to. You pull TIE Week out of there and it's going to be different. But I believe he's the type of, you know, transcendent player who when they retool this offense, the next evolution of it is going to be great. And that's just going to remind us why he's, you know, a future Hall of Fame quarterback.

We're going to have a million chances to talk about it, Nate. What about that evolution is most interesting to you? As we think about what they could look like this year and what he might look like in that offense, what is the thing you're most excited to see? It's almost like going back to square one and maybe just building behind that offensive line and those receivers having size. And I think they've really just understood is that we're going to strength. We already have a quarterback that's going to make these guys right, you know, get these guys in good positions. So let's get that size and that strength and get these guys to sit in the, We're seeing too high every single week.

Let's get guys that can sit in those zone spots. So I think it's going to be more play action and vertical based. As they, Andy Reid has been so quick gamey. And so, I mean, he's a true, true West Coast guy. And it was really cool when they took the league by storm when Mahomes is first year starting with all these vertical concepts and all this stuff that was five man routes, a lot of five guys out. I think now they're going to almost reverse that and get to more heavy protections with

the offensive line, keeping a tight end or two tight ends in. there, keeping the back in there and attacking down the field. I think it's going to be more touchdown to check down with Mahomes. And my homes can take the top off even without Tyreek Hill. They have guys like Hardman can go deep. And so I think that I'm really excited to almost see a different version. It's going to be more old school Andy Reed. Like really that's what I think it's going to be a little more play action base. So I'm excited. I was seeing these receivers, you know, juju and MBS blocking. I know that's not sexy for everybody, but I think they're going to get really creative with using those guys like tight ends and using Kelsey as a true receiver.

and kind of getting fun with the formations and stuff. So I'm very, very curious to see what they do. I just have some inclination that I think it's going to be, hey, we got an awesome offensive line. We got one of the best quarterbacks ever. Okay, let just live with those two and let all the other guys be more role player types. So it's going to be awesome, I think. Down year for Mahomes, finished second in the league in EPA per dropback after Rogers.

Through 4,800 yards and 37 touchdowns. Down here. 28 times in 734 dropbacks. Down year. Down year. Down year for Mr. Patrick Mahomes. I'm sure I won't regret this over time as I continue to watch him light the world on fire. Nate, you have two picks. I'm very jealous of you because two picks in this range is real nice.

What do you got for me? Yeah, it's kind of guys said it for me. I was hoping one of you guys would go rogue here. But they're both going to be a FC quarterbacks, pick three. I'm going to go with Josh Allen. We've already referred to him. We're talking about getting a bucket. That's what he does.

I mean, almost better than anyone. I mean, he's their offense. Like he's carrying their offense. It's like watching. Would you say it's the most quarterback-centric offensive system in the NFL? Yeah, without Lamar. But it's a good point. That's a good one too.

But similar line of thinking, though. It's like it's true old school football. Like I mean that in a sense like single wing when the quarterback was a running back, catching the snap and just running sweeps like and then throwing the ball. Like that is what Josh Allen is for that offense. I think they're trying to help him out a little bit so he doesn't have to be a hero on every play. but, I mean, we refer to that playoff game again against the Chiefs. It's freaking, like, what he can do on any play.

And he got so much better this year on being patient and being a true quarterback. We talked about it. It was against the Patriots in the regular season and working the checkdowns to get to the overthrowes, to get to the deep, checking down to get the deep throws as opposed to the opposite, hitting deep and then checking down. So it was cool seeing more of those quarterback things. Now, on top of it, he runs like a 250-pound ostrich that could run over guys and run past anybody. I mean, he's he's incredible his gifts. Like he's he's even bigger, stronger,

faster than Herbert. And Herbert's ridiculous with his gifts. So yeah, it's a really fun year watching him last year, even though he had some times of that offense of some inconsistency, is getting stalled sometimes. Seeing him in the second half of the year being more of a true quarterback was really cool to see him evolve. His season overall, the numbers associated with his season are worse than they were in 2020. Just across the board, efficiency numbers are down, completion percentage stuff that's a little cruder but still if you just want to look at the box score i feel way better about him after that season than i do after the 2020 season because parts of it i was like is this real is this going to come back to earth a little bit what does that

growing pain process potentially look like and that happened last year they ran into some walls you saw that week one game against pittsburgh it's like oh shit remember we're kind of like oh boy this might be a long year this run it's course like are they going to be able to kind of transition whatever the next version of this is, as defenses respond to them, they've got that entire year of tape. And there were some moments where there was some fits and starts. And then you get to what it is at the end.

You're like, oh, my God. It's a death machine. It's unbelievable what this guy can do. Lindsay, was there any consideration for Allen over Mahomes? Anything? Or were you just incitius? Yeah, no, I thought about just because, well, you said, you're going to regret, you know,

this after Patrick Mahomes continues to light the league on fire. I think we, as much as I'm excited to see what the next step of this evolution of the chiefs are, I think Patrick Mahomes is like fully formed. Like I think we know exactly how good he can be. I still am not sure if we're there yet with Josh Allen. I still think there are steps that he can take and things that he's going to be able to do just in terms of refinement as a passer. And maybe just some more kind of a complete offense that's less just go do shit, Josh. Yeah.

So that is, that intrigues me. And that's the little bit where it's like, can he make this next step to like where he is not just a like buzzy MVP candidate, but a without question, this is the best player in the league right now. So and I think I think he has that in him. So that's that little regret of like, if he if he takes that leap this year where, you know, I think a lot of us are expecting that the bills are a team that's going to be playing in Arizona in February. that's where that comes from. But I'm happy here. And I think you made a very smart pick. And I'm dreading what's going to come right now.

Well, if you look at the, and also you look at the numbers, Alan and Mahomes, kind of negligible money-wise. Mahomes, 43.3, like we said over the next four years, Alan's in 37. So those guys are fully paid, top of the market guys. Worth every dime. You don't need one. You don't need a discount. And so we'll talk about this after your next pick and kind of who you were picking

between. Who's your next one here? Yeah. Well, I just want to say real quick with On Allen. It was after that Tampa game at Tampa, so that was week 14. Yeah. That was the light bulb went off. I was going to ask you when you felt like really good about it.

Second half Tampa. That was it. And we talked about it on the show. And the next week you played Carolina. He did pretty well. But then the following week you played at New England. It wasn't the freezing game. It was the other one.

And that's when I was, that's when we talked about it. Yep. And it's just that stuff started clicking. And that's, yeah, it was really cool. He's took another week mentally, which is really cool to see. So staying in the AFC because it's going to be a bloodbath, I think, for the next decade. And I'm going to go with Joe Burrow.

And, I mean, got another QB. He's still on his rookie contract. It's great. The leap he took this past year. It was cool to see it what he did in college happened in the NFL as far as a processor. I already knew he could process really well. I made a joke and I know some Bengals fans because they never get mad at me. I called him Dak Pennington because I said he was big an athletic.

like Dak, but he was accurate like Chad Pennington. And maybe they didn't have the overwhelming arm strain. But seeing him this year maximize it because he's so mentally sharp. And on top of it, he can create afterwards. It was really cool to see a different type of style. We talked about guys getting a bucket. He did it in a different way. It wasn't the overwhelming.

Holy crap. Look at that. Squeezing in between. He won with processing and then the ability to escape sacks and get the ball out to his playmakers. And those, the best goal. ball thrower, even if he can't throw out the furthest because of touch, timing and ball placement. And extending. And the play extending.

Stuff down the field is there for him. He gets those explosives in a different way than these other guys. And I loved him coming out. Maybe I didn't think he had the upside. Maybe some of these other guys do. But it's like he's fully fledger. This is what he's going to be. Now it's just keeping him healthy, keeping him trusting his offense aligned because I think

they are going to be better and maybe evolving the offense a little bit. So I think that that's not on him, though. That's not on him. That's other things. Those are other factors. Burrow is a hell of a player. And I think he's going to be a bona fide pro bowler for years. This is my exact word, was the four guys that have gone off so far in this order.

And I just, you know me. I love the big, big man throw far. That's why Alan Herbert is going to get the nod for me. But Burroughs right in the conversation. 17.1 million over the next three years is an average. So you're half of the guys at the top of the market. We've seen it. This isn't a theoretical exercise.

with Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow and would a rookie quarterback contract gives you. I can name it off. Kaleo Herbert, J.C. Jackson, Corey Lindsley, Glyle Collins, von Bell, Chiodobee Woozier, Trey Hendrickson, you see it.

You see the advantage that it gives you. And those two guys are really in their own world right now as it relates to value. There's no one else that has multiple cheap years left on their deals that have proven they are top five borderline NFL quarterbacks. You're projecting with everybody else. Exactly.

And these are really the only two guys with multiple of those cheap years left. And I think that's why Burrow was firmly number four for me. Like you said, how can you create the explosives, even if you don't have the biggest arm like some of these other guys do? We saw exactly how he did it last year. He was playing at an unbelievably high level. So now, Lindsay, you're in a shitty spot if we think that the first tier cuts off after four. Yeah, because so this is where this exercise is, to me, a lot more challenging this year than it was last year because this time last year, we were still real optimistic about the 2021 draft class.

Right. Like we had other cheap guys that we were like young guys that we were really excited. This is where I, this is right about where I took Trevor Lawrence last year. Spoiler alert, not going to be taking Trevor Lawrence right here. So the rest of the guys now are older or really expensive or both. and I'm trying to decide if I want to stray to my board or if I want to stray just a little bit based on the four-year parameters that we have here.

And the whole time we were talking about Joe Burrow, I was sitting here struggling about who I was going to take. And as much as I will regret this when he inevitably retires to go move off into Hawaii and do God knows what after the season, I can't not take the two-time defending MVP. And I'm going to take Aaron Rogers, despite his age and his quirkiness and potential for saying, F this and walking away from football. Same spot I took him last year.

Before we knew, before we knew, so much of what was going to come last year. Pick five, though, because there was the same conundrum I had last year. Same exact conundrum. I was like, do you take the young guy or do you take? take the reigning MVP, now two-time MVP. Same exact spot, too. This is exactly where I would have taken him if I had this pick. And it's really complicated right in this range.

I would assume, based on age and also the contract, you get three more years. Three more years, you'll just say, you know what, fuck the fourth year. I don't care. I'll take three years of Aaron Rogers playing like this. And if you look at his deal, it actually is structured like that. The fourth year, I think he's set to make $60 million. Don't think that's going to happen. So it's 33 over the next three.

which at the level he's playing at right now, cool. I'm more than happy doing that, and I'll feel pretty good about it. Who were you between? Who else would you have gone with here potentially? I think I would have gone Stafford, who's five years younger and just won a Super Bowl,

so we know where he can take you. Yeah, this is great. I have the sixth pick. I'm picking Matthew Stafford because that's exactly where my board is right now. And it's, there's a lot of, you could go a lot of different directions. you make a lot of different arguments and we'll kind of go through them as we as we hit off these next few picks. He is 34 years old. So you get 34, 35, 36, 37. He was one of the best

quarterbacks in the league last year. And also we saw it was such a study in circumstances, right? When you drop somebody with that amount of talent into a better offense with more help, both schematically and with the offensive talent around him, you can turn him into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football. I mean, we just talk about Mahomes being second in the NFL in EPA per dropback last year. Stafford was third. And getting the bucket aspects and what he can do for you outside of the given structure to play, even if he's not mobile.

What was available to the Rams offense last year because Matthew Stafford was their quarterback? That's what entices me here. Just everything you can do with him. He is very, very good with the mental aspects of the game, where he can get to on the field. It doesn't have to be right. He can make you right with the stuff he can get to on the backside,

all of this stuff. I just think the expansion of your playbook at Matthew Stafford, even at this stage of his career, is your quarterback. That's why I went with him here over some of the other younger guys, just because I think the dropback aspects of who I could be, that's where I want to go with this. Watching, because now that's what's kind of fun with this quarterback movement stuff is a lot of this isn't theory anymore. Like, oh, I wonder what he would look like in that offense. Yep. Yep. And it was really cool to see the dials change from McVeigh with that Rams offense from golf to Stafford. because all of a sudden they're running that seven-step empty game, every other snap. And it's just because they can because Stafford is willing to hang in the pocket and push the ball down the field on any snap with a guy running down the barrel.

If you want to be dumb, you got to be tough. So that's what Stafford will do. He would stand that pocket and whip it in there. And like you said, he makes you right because there is times maybe a route was when OBJ was getting into the offense and kind of, you know, he ad-lips a little bit. He'll be a little short. he'll feel open, but Stafford makes him right and whips the throw in there. It doesn't matter. Oh, shoot, you're early.

I'm going to still chuck it in there and get the first down. Like that's what a guy does. He opens up that room for error. So it's he can have times where he always makes three to four bonehead throws a game where he trusts his arm too much. That is the Stafford thing. He's going to do it. He's in his mid 30s.

He's not changing now. So it's, you know, that's what he does. But also it's those dozen throws that he makes that are just, you know, 0.01 percentile. So that's the tradeoff with Stafford. But this is exactly where I would have taken him as well. So I'm with you. He had that stretch of games. And I guess it was early November where he was making those boneheaded plays.

It was really the exact moment where I had just traded a future first round dynasty pick for him because I was trying to win a championship. Trust me. I'm very aware of that stretch for Matthew Stafford. And they were in like primetime game. At Green Bay. Sunday night football. There was a, God, was it the Green Bay game where, you know, it was. Did he have one again?

He was against the Titans. He had a rough game against the Titans. He had a rough game against Green Bay, Minnesota on the road, the Baltimore game that they played. He didn't play very well. There were some pick sixes. They were, you know, deep in your own territory. It was.

I had a really hard time during the postseason as we got into January and February, like shaking that, that I was just waiting for that version of Stafford to come out. Like I didn't believe sitting where they were at as a four seed, that he'd be able to play, like four clean games to get that. I just was worried that that wasn't going to happen. But we saw that.

Yes, there was luck involved. There was a dropped interception in the NFC championship game that would have changed everything, right? I mean, luck is involved here. But we got almost as perfect of a postseason as you could have imagined. And then the other thing just about him is that in this exercise, we don't necessarily get the supporting cast or whatever. but there is just something that's so special about what Stafford and Cup are doing together right now.

And the way that he's elevated Cooper Cup's game, the way that Cup is probably elevated Stafford's game, the way that the working and designing plays together. It just makes me really excited if I were to get him for the next four years. And I didn't take him, but you can enjoy him, Robert. Elevated is such a great word. Yeah. Because I think that what we've seen from the Rams over the last few years, going from golf to Stafford is an experiment in going from a quarterback you can win with and you can win because of.

And you just see what the difference looks like in real time and in practice. And if you're doing this list, there are not that many more guys that you're sitting there being like, I can win because he's my quarterback. Because he's on the field, I have a chance to win in my offense is elevated because of his presence. That number of guys that are not 45 years old and not making, or even in their midst, 30s not making all of this money it starts to shrink a little bit there are warts with a lot of these other guys and even if he has those stretches where you're concerned about him i still think he's in that tier of quarterbacks and still i mean you still get those mid 30s and he's playing at a

high level so there are a couple other guys here that i'm i was choosing between i have another pick so yeah i have my board this is my staffer is six on my board so it has gone off in exactly the order that i if you need to offer just watch just watch the fourth quarter in the super It is just like, okay, there you go. That's getting a bucket on the biggest stage. Yeah, that, that just watch that. That's, that's all you need for justification for him. Yeah, this is, this is the hard one.

Now it's getting weird. So I'm choosing between two guys. I have two, I have two guys that I'm choosing between here. I'm wondering if I'll take the guy you didn't, where my, how this is going to fall. I'm going to pick Lamar. Okay. So, so he's 25 years old. Okay.

He's 25 years old. He's won an MVP. He's 25 years old. He's won an MVP. What he can do for your offense, even if we think there are limitations based on what their passing game can eventually be because of who he is as a player, I think a lot of those are imposed by the personnel, the coordinator that they have. If you dropped him into a perfect offensive system, I don't know how that would be devised. We've talked about this day, and I'm sure we will at nauseam over the next six months, what that would look like and why they're running into these walls. I just think him at his best is so electric and what he can do for you on the ground and just so many different ways.

If you're talking about him and Kyler, the Kyler thing, even if Kyler's highs as a passer and what he's been able to do as a thrower, kind of eye popping in a way that even Lamar hasn't been to certain areas of the field, I'm just worried about him wearing down every single year. I just wouldn't want to commit to him over 17 game season for the next four years. Lamar has avoided that even if there have been some ebbs and flows and how efficient that. that offense has been throwing the ball. I think with better health, better offensive line play this year, we're going to see another kind of a rebound from them.

So I feel good about that. The cheap years for Lamar are done. It's kind of the story with a lot of these guys. He'll make $23 million this year on his fifth year option. And then if, let's say you guys a $45 million per extension, you're looking at $40 million average over the next four years. So it's right at Allen Mahomes range. It's not cheap anymore.

But I still think that with the other options available with this stretch, there aren't really any other guys that have those cheap ears left that I'd feel good about. So that's what I'm going to go with here. I don't think there's anybody left on the board that has like a one-of-one singular talent like Lamar is. I think there's elements of everybody left who you can really like. But there's nobody else that is so unique like Lamar is. So if you hadn't taken him here, I think I probably would have taken him next. And now I am figuring out where I want to go here.

No, but that, I mean, I get it with Lamar because it's just, he got banged up last year, but you forget, like, you just rewatch him. And it's like the Ravens were falling apart around him last year. And he's, you know, carrying that team. Their passing game is, you know, we're, I've already said enough about Greg Roman's passing game. But, you know, and also, but like they kind of, I think they got a little too cute in that passing game. They're like, yeah, we're going to run all these reed routes. And that's how we're going to get explosives.

And I think it's going to be a less as more that they're going to get to that passing game. They're like, okay, we cranked it up way too much. Okay, let's now find that happy balance, you know, with getting to that passing game. Health is going to help as well. Rashabatman, I think we'll take a leap this year as well. And I can't wait for that chemistry to develop. And also with Mark Andrews, you know, you got to mention on the non-QB draft, but, you know, but no, but I think I'm excited to watch Lamar this year and the Ravens this year because I think they're going to really reannounce themselves a little bit because Lamar is, like you said, the singular talent.

There's no one else like him. And there probably won't be for a long time. Yeah, that's, I think that's exactly. You articulated it well, Lindsay. I think that's why I felt comfortable taking him there over some of the other guys, just that he's different in a way that I think no one else really. You can make an argument, I guess, for Kyler left on the board really is. So you're next here, Lindsay, who you got?

All right. I'm going to, I'm going to, a little bit like Lamar, where we're counting on a bounce back year. I'm going to take Russell Wilson. Yeah. Yeah. And not just because he now lives right down the street. Yeah, I was going to say.

Not very far by mileage, but it's different tax brackets. I was so curious about where he would go. I was so curious about where he would go, who would take him and why. So why Russell Wilson in this spot? Yeah. I mean, I think I'm going to, I'm going to count on kind of a career rejuvenation for him in Denver. and that what we saw out of him for much of last season was the injury, but he missed time for the first time ever in his career,

the thumb injury rushing back too fast, just kind of not really being happy and not having the best protection. I'm going to chalk up a lot of those things to, like, it was the end of his time in Seattle, and it kind of ended poorly, and now he's in Denver. He's going to have the best offensive line. I mean, Robert, we've talked a lot about the Bronco. Broncos' offensive line. I think there's a lot of questions and issues there. I do think it's

going to be a better offensive line now than he's played with in several seasons. You know, really good offensive talent around him. I think he's just, you know, we've seen guys switch teams and just kind of get this second life to them. And I'm very curious what this offense is going to look like. It might be a little bit slow to develop, but he still is one of the best deep ball throwers in the league. He's one of the best leaders. He's already kind of got that juice going here in Denver. So he's also not that expensive right now. He's going to become very expensive very soon. Two more cheap years, though, relatively. I think it's in the mid-20s for the next two years. And when you compare that to Rogers making 50 on his extension now, that's still a relative

value. Yeah, and he's 34. But he's been one of those guys who I'm not afraid. unlike Aaron Rogers, who I took with my last pick. I'm not really afraid about Russell Wilson walking away. I mean, he's been pretty clear about his desire to play for a really long time. They will peel him off the field. Yeah, I mean, he's got some very, very big business interests in terms of like wanting what his, his football interests, wanting to own a team, all of these run teams, like all of this kind of stuff. But I think a lot of that also goes into he needs to play for a long time.

And, you know, he's going to sign a long-term deal here in Denver. I wouldn't be surprised if it's next offseason. And he's going to play for a long time. So, you know, I think if he can avoid injuries like he has for the majority of his career, last year's thumb thing was pretty fluky. Yeah. If he can remain on the field, I think he's going to be a top 10 quarterback. And I love that we have three AFC West quarterbacks in the top eight.

Right. Russell Wilson, Nate, is in a very similar situation to Matthew Stafford was. When you think about a lot of the factors, age, contract even. Stafford has two more kind of cheap. years and then they all already got his extension. It's like 33 over the next four years. I assume when Russ gets his extension, it'll be right in that same range. Here's why I took Stafford over Wilson. I'm curious what you think about this. We talk about Stafford. I feel like it expands what you can do. We literally saw the expansion. It was as it related to the Rams

offense last year. I am worried at Russ at this point, his career, that the type of offense you can be is condensing. And it's just getting hyper-specific and it's the Russell Wilson version of how you play offensive football. And Lindsay, you talked about this might be the best offensive line he's played with. Maybe it won't be because of how he plays. His effect on the players around him offensively is so specific. I think that's why I was a little bit worried about it. Do you think that's reasonable, Nate?

Yeah, no, I do. I have Russ dinged a little bit. And even last year, going in the last year for this draft, that's kind of maybe why I prefer DAC over him, was because of that Russell Wilson offense, like the good. it and the bad with that comes with it it's he's limited over the middle of the field i feel like i've said those million times but uh you know go he likes to work on the outside he likes to create throw the deep ball like you know quick game is not as strong suit whatsoever which is fine you can win without that but it's a very specific skill set that is what he brings to the table and it's also

what he takes off from the table and i'm very curious with the offense it looks like because i i can exactly tell you you know what hack it's going to do there but i love the pieces around him but that's the thing is he's going to create some pressure just because that's what he is. He goes one and done with his reads. Just that's what he is. That's what's brought him to this point in time. That's what's made him, Russell Wilson.

But, you know, father time is undefeated. I've seen Aaron Rogers now who doesn't have the same dance around this like, like Russ does. No, not very rare. I mean, he would bounce in the pocket.

He would bounce, not move around nearly as much. But now he doesn't ever break contained. Like it's once a game, Rogers does it. He used to do that about. what, five, six times a game, you know. And Russ, I think, is trying to learn that aspect where it's like, I can't do the dancing

around the Fran Tarkington stuff and going left to right every single snap. I could do it when it's a third and 12 for the ball game or fourth and 10 for the ball game, but not every third down. So I think he's last year was a big adjustment for him trying to learn what mid-30s, you know, middle-aged Russell is. And I think that's what he's learning. So I'm curious, I think he's still a great quarterback. What he does, he shoots, he is one of the best deep-ball throwers in the last.

you know, a long time. The Quill and Sutton connection is going to be fun to watch. Now he can do it. Yeah. Sutton and I mean, even like Tim Patrick who's got that big body is going to be fun with him. It's, yeah. So that's the thing. They might have a good tight end.

Albert O. He's not going to go there that Russ doesn't really use the tight ends because he doesn't throw in the interior of the field. Or Dolchich. Yeah. Or Dolkich. Yeah. He comes to Denver to die.

Well, as long as Dolchich just runs down the field, Russell will see him. So that that's the give and take with Russ. It's that he does all these amazing things, but there's certain limit. with him. But he's still just, he's still a great quarterback. I think Hackett needs, and this is delving a little bit too much into like Broncos schematic stuff and less Russ Wilson. But I, I think Hackett's like big trick that he needs to do is needs Russ to fall in love

or make Russ fall in love with Giovante Williams and make him believe that it was Russ's idea. He just did it in Green Bay. They just went through the same process of Green Bay. I'm trying to Jedi mind trick their quarterback into thinking that he was making the decisions. That's a very real thing. It's really funny because that process, and I say it as a joke, but I do think it's informative and helpful to have gone through a very similar process over the last few years that he did in Green Bay. Because when you go into a situation and you have a Hall of Fame quarterback at the tail end of his career, that's not always easy. That's a really difficult needle to thread.

We're like, how much do we obviously need his input, but we also want the structure of the offense to look assert. certain way and what does that give and take look like. That process takes a while. For Green Bay, it took at least through the first season. So the fact that he just did that, I do think is helpful because even if the dynamics are different with Russell Wilson than they are with Aaron Rogers, I think they're going to be both personality-wise and otherwise, I still think that it's important to know exactly when, how you need to push and pull on some of those levers.

I still, oh, I'm sorry. No, no, no. It was just funny how Rogers and Russ went about wanting a trade last year. I've said this before, but Rogers doing what he did, you know, the McAfee show and I'm not leaking anything and everything like that. And then Russ's was through an intermediary going, I don't want to be traded. But if I were, these are the five teams. But it wasn't from Russ. But I just love that.

But that's exactly the we're talking about personalities, just how they even want about the trade, want to be traded. That's exactly what I mean. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'll say it's been an interesting, just when we're talking personalities and like, you know, kind of learning. I've, you know, I've covered Russ a long time. Like one of my first stories I wrote when I went to USA today in 2012 was going out to Seattle, you know, in October, you know, where it's this rookie quarterback and righty. So I've gone back, not like you go back with him, Nate, but throughout his NFL career.

So I feel like I kind of have this understanding better than most people live in Denver, kind of what the Russell Wilson experience has been like. Yeah. But learning stuff about kind of who he is and what it means to have Russell Wilson in your building, what it means to have Russell Wilson and Sierra. like the biggest celebrity couple Denver has ever seen. It's a completely different dynamic. But I will say for everybody, I think that we have drafted up at this point. We're also talking about who you kind of who you want to lead your franchise and who you want to build around.

Yep. I don't really know a delicate way to discuss this. We have not, none of us have drafted Deshaun Watson. He won't be on my team. And it's just, it's a, we're talking about who you want to lead your team here. And, you know, I don't want people to listen, you know, be yelling and saying, how do you not take him? he's a top five quarterback because I think if this was strictly a football conversation,

it would be it would be different. He was not discussed last year when we did this. And, you know, when we're talking about quarterbacks who were available by a trade market this year, one team or a couple teams went ahead and traded for Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz and other quarterbacks. And another team went ahead with Deshawn Watson. And it's just not a decision that I, as GM of this hypothetical team here, am comfortable making.

I assumed he wasn't going to be drafted. I was going to hit that at the end. The Browns went through a process where they had to go through the moral hedging of, is this worth it for us? Is what it can do for us on a football level worth the hedging we have to do in other areas? I don't have to do that. As part of this process, I don't have to morally hedge.

I don't want to pay $230 million guaranteed dollars. I can choose to not have Deshawn Watson be the quarterback of my hypothetical football team. and I'm happy to be in that position. And he's not going to be. So I bet you the other teams, the other owners and stuff and GMs aren't mad that, oh, Deshawn Watson's playing because it's stuff, but because of, oh, you gave him the contract. It's 100% the contract.

And that's disgusting, I think. But, you know, that's just, that's the league. But yes, he was not on my board. He was off of it. He is, yeah. So I'm, I'm exactly with you guys. I'm not going to be selecting him on my team because of the same decisions. It was decision making you guys just already presented.

Nate, you have not. and 10 here. Dak Prescott is on the board. Oh yeah. You got a lot options here for yourself. I know. And I'm actually down to three guys. So this is tough.

And I'm going DAC. That is the one I'm going with. And my guy that I took number two last year, I think I have come to grips of what DAC is. Dak is more of the good to very good tier and not the elite tier. I thought he might announce himself last year. I am happy with that. I still love how he plays the game.

He's not on my board. It's exactly where I had him. Okay. I had a little higher. But with him, it's, I just love how he plays the game. I said this last year. I think he's the machine, a robot, a psycho robot, because he's so competitive. That also reminds me a Desmond Ritter a little bit on side story.

But with Dak and just I just, I just, I had to mention Ritter on this. I did. I know. We couldn't get through a quarterback pot without you talking about him. Him and Zach Pascal. But with with, with, with, with Dack and just, of course, of the protection stuff, I get into the nitty degree with that. But how accurate he is, he can layer all three, all three levels.

Well, it was kind of up until last or during last season, I was like, okay, here it comes. We're like, we even talked about it's like, man, he, he's an MVP candidate at this point in time. That calf injury against the Patriots, I think was a lot more serious than we realized because he almost didn't even come. I think he did miss one game. They had a buy and he almost missed the game after that or something of that sort. He missed a Minnesota game, right? And they won that game. Yeah.

That's right. That's right. Yes. And watching those and watching that back and you could really see a difference because he wasn't planning off that. leg. They played against Washington. He had a bad interception. You could tell his foot, he didn't, he went off his off foot, which is really strange to see with quarterbacks. Unless it's Mahomes, because he's a freak. But with, but with, but with Dack, it's like, no, he's so sound with everything. That's when you can really, that's the thing with that. You always know when something's

wrong because he's so mechanically sound that everything is, looks like almost like a golf swing, how consistent he is. So pros golf swing, not my golf swing. But with Dack is, I'm good with him as that very good tier. I think he can win you some games. games, but he does need a little bit of help around him where he's not going to truly, truly always carry. I wish, I think they weaned it out of him because he took so many hits over his career. And of course, he got banged up last year against the Patriots is that I want him to scramble a little bit more. I want him to go get that bucket. I think he was trying to prove that he was a superstar from the pocket that he lost that kind of creation ability.

And I know they're trying to save him hits. They gave him a lot of money. But having said that, it's I want him to make it easier on himself. Just get the layout. You don't have to hit a three every freaking time. Just scramble for seven yards and get that first down. So I hope he gets into that this year. But I still love the player. I just don't take him number three overall this year. I'm going to take, I think nine is a perfect spot for him. He is a safe choice at this range. And I don't mean that in any sort of pejorative way. The other guys think there's a little bit more volatility. Yeah. Maybe the upside is a little bit higher. But with him, I think it's a double right here in this range. And I think that's a choice you're making. And I completely understand it. That's

why I had him at nine. He's expensive is the other thing that's worth mentioning. There is no more cheap years on the DAC contract. 41.5 million average over the next four years. That's higher than Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, pretty much every other guy on this list outside of Patrick Mahomes. It's actually more expensive than Rogers is probably going to be over the next four years. It's prime, though.

It's 2930.30. And that's totally fine. But I just want to point it out, he is very expensive. over the next four years. So you need him to be an elite quarterback to kind of make good on the money he's making. I still say very good quarterbacks. That's still some surplus. I really do.

I think it's absolutely worth it. Yeah. Okay. Yes. Okay. Okay. That's all I'm hoping you say that. Just more about comparison to the other guys on this list and like what he's making

compared to the market. I don't think it's overpay by any stretch. I think that if you can, if you have elite quarterback play, $40 million dollars is a fine price to pay for elite quarterback play. That's worth it. What do you think, Lindsay? I think this is exactly. where he should have gone.

And this is right about where I had him. I think I had him nine. Are we at nine right now? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So this is I think right about, you know, right about there. You know, look, this exercise too is like independent of who's around him and stuff.

I do. I am very curious of, you know, the receiver group has changed now, you know, the cowboys are realizing, you know, they're having to kind of pay the bill now after he's paid these guys, you know, and I don't love that after, you know, they paid the big three, right, on offense and then also invested very heavily on their offensive line. I don't necessarily love that Cooper was the piece that you had to pull out at that. You know, I think the resources might be better spent there than on Zeke, even though Zeke is obviously such a big driver of their offense and the DAC and Zeech relationship is so important. But I'm just really curious. I mean, last year we were so excited.

And I think probably part of the reason that you took him at three was because you looked at all of the talent around him and just said, this is going to be nonstop fireworks. And, It wasn't for a lot of different reasons. And now the talent isn't as good. So there might even be more pressure on him. And is he ready to kind of do that? He might have a better year as a quarterback, but every stats and win loss or might take a drop off.

It might be that weird kind of split there, you know, which might be fine for the Cowboys. I mean, the Cowboys probably need to be a little bit more of a balanced team. I agree. And the defense might be a little bit better. Robert and I've talked about this, especially how that defense was incredible.

incredibly elite last year, but we thought we were talking about, we said it a hundred times, we just wanted them to be average. And they were just like a top five unit in any way you look at it. Last year felt like their window, like as a contender. They had multiple windows. They had the DAC rookie contract window and then the we have the best defense in the league out of nowhere window and they squandered both of them. Yeah.

Last year. Mike McCarthy. Oh, sorry. Jason Garrett and Mike McCarthy. He has no history, neither of them has any history of doing that though. You know, that's out of nowhere. All right, now you're at 10 here as well. Yeah.

Okay. This is a heart or head thing. Okay. My head wants me to take Kyler. I love Kyler. And some of the stuff we talk about Lamar, injury stuff, how his play style is. I love Kyle. He's kind of, him or Russ have some similarities as far as a thrower.

It's kind of fun to watch. I'm going with Trevor Lawrence, though. Fuck me. I am so screwed now. Because you know what I'm going to do next. We finally have the projection. I rewatching them. I'm sticking with it.

I know I'm the bold guy to say this generational number one pick is going to be a good quarterback, but I'm sticking with it. Just the competency around them will make people realize it because what he, Robert, you were talking about pre-show that you watch a little bit of him just, you know, catching up on stuff. And it's like, I mean, he does some things that are rare. I mean, just his pocket movement, his twitchiness. He's top 10 and sad percentage. I just assumed he'd be there at 12.

For everything you're saying right now, I just assumed he'd be there. and my entire plan hinged on him being there at 12, and now I'm just screwed. I totally agree. I went back and I was watching some of that stuff today. And we're talking about the rookie quarterbacks tomorrow, so we can dig into this a little bit more. But there was a play against the Colts where he looks off to the left,

it's like a deep out and he comes back to the seam up the middle of the field to the right. And just how quickly he flips his hips and just how smart he understands about where he's getting to, to be that twitchy at 6-6. And the jacks were a disaster. I mean, just a disaster. Bad. I mean, we're watching that last Colts game, and he's throwing goal balls to LaQuan Treadwell and one-on-one situations. And the numbers are horrendous.

Yeah. I mean, you look at the season that he had and you compare it to other years we've seen from rookie quarterbacks. And there are a lot of reason to be pessimistic about what he can end up being. You put him in a mildly good situation. And I think he's going to take a huge leap forward to the show. I was going to be thrilled to nab him at 12 if I was. could because there is no one else, maybe a couple other, maybe like one other guy, maybe. There is no one else in this range that has the ceiling that he has.

Nobody. And that's why I totally understand you, and Kyler, I guess, I mean, that you were between them both. But outside of Kyler, there's nobody else that has the ceiling that he has. And that's why I think it's totally justified doing it here. And probably I guess the good news when we're talking about Trevor Lawrence is, we've seen his floor. Yeah.

We know what it is. And we just have to hope when you're, when you're taking him here, that what happened his rookie year didn't do any sort of irreparable damage. And I don't think I'm optimistic that it did not. I mean, the way that he carried himself through that entire impossible season, the way that he had to be the grown up in the room there, he had to be the one who was the spokesman for the team when everything was shitty. When he was not. He was the adult in the room. Yeah. He was not afraid to even kind of like stand up to Urban Meyer at times, like to the press.

I mean, I was just blown away by the way that he handled all of that. And now he is in a situation with a coach who has a very proven track record of working with quarterbacks. He was a quarterback. He knows how this works. You know, we'll see what Press Taylor is going to be like. I mean, the rest of Peterson's offensive staff. So it's only going to go up from here. I took him way too early last year.

I took him at four banking on all of just the traits and just, you know, what we thought of years left from that draft. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I'll still, I'll still claim him. I mean, it was just too. It was just too early. You know, I still have a lot of questions about the way that the Jags have continued to maybe build around him, the way they've invested some of their offensive resources.

But just in terms of like a guy who can make all of the throws. And even is, even during that shit show of a season, there were a number of times where you would go, okay, that's, that's really nice. That's really nice, despite all of the dysfunction around him. So he is, it was how my board was. In this range, I was at, I had a, DAC, Trevor Lawrence. And now with my next pick, I'm going to take Mr. Kyler Murray.

So now I'm going to end up with Kyler two years in a row. This worked out so poorly for me. We tiered these guys very similarly. This works seven. That was the only difference. I think. Yeah. You could, I had Lamar, Kyler, Dak.

You could, however you want to do that, I could understand all the arguments. That's the tier, though. That's, yeah, that's that tier. Yeah. The thing with Kyler. Getting in here, Lindsay, I think is great for you. Yeah. Yeah.

I think this is good value. He's, um, You know, we'll see contract-wise. He's probably the only guy on this list who we don't, well, actually with Lamar too. Kyler and Lamar are the two guys who could get extensions done this summer. Lamar just doesn't seem remotely interested in getting an extension done right now, which, you know, that's your prerogative. Kyler very clearly does not want to play under his current deal where he is significantly underpaid

relative to the quarterback market. So I don't even really want to speak to like what he's, he's currently making and what his deal looks like because it is going to change. And for his take, hopefully it changes between now and maybe the middle of July. Well, let's say he gets a market extension. Let's say he gets a top of market extension right in line with everything everybody else does. If it's $45 million per in his new deal over the next two years outside of what he has now, that's an average of 32.8 over the next four years.

I'm fine with that. So that's right there with some of these other guys that we're talking about, Stafford, Russell Wilson, and all of those guys kind of are in the same general range. Yeah. So, I mean, I just, I love him as a player. You know, I'm very excited to see. I mean, I don't love the moves that the Cardinals have been around him. I think all of us have been on the record saying that at multiple times this off season.

I had questions about their draft. Obviously, don't love that DeAndre Hopkins is not going to be available for six weeks, given what we know their offense looks like without DeAndre Hopkins. But I do kind of want to see like pissed off Kyler Murray. And, you know, we for years have wanted to see them do more to kind of build around to take pressure off of Kyler, make things easier on him. But I also want to see him just like take games over himself. And he's able to do it. The last game that we saw him play was his worst as a pro.

But I don't want that to like shade the way that we feel about him necessarily. I want to think about, okay, this is who he was through that stretch of, you know, late September or. early October, mid-October last year before he got hurt before DeAndre got hurt and know that he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. We just haven't seen him do it for an entire season and we have yet to see him do it in meaningful, you know, really big, meaningful games. Yeah. Yeah, as the season wears on because Kyler's arm talents up there with everybody, like as far as being able to make every throw. One hundred percent. And that's what I think the misconception with him is a little bit. It's like he, he's so much fun as a runner. And we all know that

the creation, but it's like in the pocket, he can make every throw. He doesn't have the same issues that Russ has as throwing it short and throwing a quick game and intermediate, which is, you know, some misconception with him. It's no, he, his arm talent as far as changing arm angles, layering throws, driving throws. It's up there with anybody, which is, I mean, it throws, of course, it throws the beautiful deep ball, which again, I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to, go into a theory that the shorter you are, the easier it is to throw a great deep ball. I'm sticking with that. It's trajectory. Maybe there's something about it. There's got to be something to it. I really do think there is something to it.

Sam Howell is what made me think about that. But anyway, so it was because he's about six foot. But yeah, Kyler, love him as a player. It's just I think we all know what the blemishes is, is staying healthy and staying consistent in the second half of the year. But such a fun, fun player that at times he'll have drives or quarters or halves where he looks like the best of the best. So just want to make it more consistent with him.

Don't envy you right now, man. You're struggling. All right. So here is where I am. I am inside the car continuum. Yes. That's who's next to my board. This is exactly where I am.

So we have entered the car continuum right on the edge of the top 10 quarterbacks, top 12 quarterbacks in the league. This is where the car continuum exists. You got to do it. What type of quarterback are you? Okay. You just flip Trevor Lawrence and Tom Brady here, you know, because Trevor's more projection.

But yeah, this is it. This is pick 12. This is car. This is the car range. It's hilarious how this all looks like. And I just, I can't take Brady. No, no, I know. How many more years?

I'm not going to do it. And I, it's, I, so I'm not going to take Brady. And so this is the car cousins. Yep. Like, this is where you are now. And so these, here are the, let me walk you through my, my internal monologue here as I'm going through the options. Those are not exciting, enticing options at this stage of the draft.

But I do think that they're probably better than some of the alternatives. Like, what other direction would you go? All right. So I'm going to take Derek Carr at 12th. Okay. Okay. I think that we talk about getting a bucket, kind of making plays, pushing the ball down the field. I would rather have Derek Carr right now than Kirk Cousins.

I think he can do more for me just outside of whatever the play tells him to do. Yeah. That's how I feel about Derek Carr right now. He could add lib just a little bit better. Yes. I really do think so. I mean, Kirk Cousins said Justin Jefferson and Adam Thee one for the last couple years. Like, he's doing fine.

I mean, and I do think that their offensive coaching staff has done a pretty decent job. You know, the heights we've seen with him, Kevin Stefanski was there, then Gary Kubiak. And I thought Kubiak did a fine job last year. So I think their offense has been set up for Kirk Cousin's success. I think that Derek Carr has been in slightly worse circumstances and played just about as well. I just think he has a little bit more juice to him than Kurt Cousins does. I would rather have Carr in this spot. So now, as we move through the car,

continuum, here are the options that I'm left with. We can talk about them individually. And each of us get one more pick. Yep. Each of us get one more pick now. Okay. I'm sitting pretty. So, Kirk Cousins is there.

Kirk Cousins is making $35 million over the next two years and we'll probably make about $35 million over the following two years. So you're paying $35 million a year for Kirk Cousins. That's what Josh Allen is making over the course of this exercise. That's tough. It's tough. It's the thing that the Vikings have run into. And I think the Vikings would probably tell you that as the market goes up, 35 over the next two years for Kirk, if the top of the market is 45, is palatable to them.

It's less palatable to me. Cheap quarterbacks. It's hard for me in this exercise to pay $35 million a year for Kirk Cousins when I can pay half of that for 88% of Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones. Okay. So that's my other consideration. If I'm going to go with that type of quarterback, I think I'd rather. have Mac Jones and two starters here than Kurt Cousins. It's so boring.

Both of those options are not fun. So I'm going with Justin Fields. Yeah, go with your heart. I was hoping you would. Go with your heart. Homer pick. I knew this moment was coming. I knew as I got to 13, I was really, really hoping that Lawrence would be there at 12.

I'd run it up and then I'd have to make some tough decisions. And when I was getting into this range making some tough decisions, I went back and I watched a couple of Justin Fields games today. And there are so many catastrophic, catastrophically bad plays. Just fumbles and sacks. And the lows are so low. But then the splash plays,

they come up four or five times a game. Among quarterbacks of at least 300 dropbacks last year. Here are the quarterbacks, according to PFF, who had a higher big time throw percentage than Justin Fields. You ready? Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rogers. That's it. and you watch some of the throws he's making to demure bird as they fall incomplete and just the structure of the offense.

And I know it was bad last year. I know. But I can't justify taking Kirk Cousins in this spot when the promise of what Justin Fields and that physical talent could be the excess value and what I could get from that over the next three years of this exercise. And that's why I'm going with Fields. It's a tough range. but I just, I think that's the best chance for me here. No, I, all the arguments you said, it's, the flash is incredible. The Steelers game and the Vikings game are the ones I reviewed recently because those are some of those

some of those better performances. And it's like, the Steelers game was so frustrating because you can see all the blemishes, the jump balls of Jimmy Graham, the design blemishes under that naggy offense, the illegal formations, guys not getting lined up, guys being wrong, two guys running the same route, a lot of stuff, the same stuff that Trevor Lawrence faced. as well. But with Fields, sometimes it was even worse. A lot of quick game, even though Fields is a down-the-field guy.

It looks so ugly. Them just running like stick on first down and it's just like to Cole Komet and it's like, this is gross. Yeah. And it is, it's tough, man. Oh, yeah. They were in a play action against the Vikings, one of the rare ones. And all three linebackers for the Vikings like came up on the fake and then ran underneath

the dig route because they knew what was coming. Like they didn't even, they just stood there like a like a picket fence. Like they're playing Red Rover waiting for Fields to throw out. And they had no checkdown got out because the protections were always walking with the bears too. That was another thing. And so yeah, just that, but his, God, he sometimes looks like the biggest and fastest guy in the field. Like when he scrambles and you watch the sideline view, him pulling away from everybody. And on top of that, he's six four and built.

And I, yeah, I'm still a fan of his. Rewatching him. I actually appreciated him more even though he had a very, you know, underwhelming season the Bears did as a whole, especially after. watching some of these prospects for this year's class for quarterbacks. And I was like, oh, yeah, still stick with Justin Fields is a very, very good talent. So, yeah, I totally get here. I hope he fell out of 15 because I was going to swoop them up.

If you turn down the, if you turn down the knob on the catastrophically bad place. Yeah. Not even just good plays. If they're not catastrophically bad, it changes so fast, the complexion of what he is as a quarterback. And I do think that the structure of this offense makes sense for the ways he looked the best. All they need to do is survive this year via scheme. Yep. Build the plane out of boots, have him throw the ball 20 times a game and just live to get to

next season when they have some money. I also secretly think Byron Prinkle is kind of a great player for this offense. Like I don't think he's a great player, but 6-1, 200, like power slot like utmost. Like you, that's like, yeah. Oh, I like that. I would love, I love the Pringle signing. That was one of my like under radar guys for receivers, but I just wanted one more receiver. It's assigned with him. Oh, 100%. Again, it's about surviving. But the fact that he's like, he's bigger than I thought he was.

Yeah. It's 6-1-200 and being a slot mostly player last year. Like, I don't want to go too far into this. But I just, again, I think at this stage, it's a dice roll that I'm willing to take. Yeah. I was hoping you didn't have it in you. I know. Because I was going to take him in like a half second.

And now I'm really struggling. Like I'm really, really, really struggling right now. because I don't think I have it in me to take 37-year-old Matt Ryan. Last year with the final pick, I took Tom Brady, and I was thrilled about it and I stand by it. I don't think I can do it after he retired once already. The one year of her. The actual retirement does make it tough in this moment. I'm paying or I'm drafting him for his announcing career.

That's what I mean. If we're talking just like pure financials, right? I mean, in terms of like, you know, business opportunities. And I mean, look, one season of Tom Brady is probably better than four seasons of basically anybody else that's left on this list. I'd rather have one season of Tom Brady than four of Mack Jones. I think, oh, my God, this is awful. I can't decide.

I'm as close to saying, fuck it and taking Tom Brady again. There are many good options. I wouldn't blame you at all if you did that. Like Ryan Tannahill is another name worth mentioning in this range. They're just aren't that many. We're like, I'm excited to do this. Yeah, right. Yeah.

I felt good about that. Tannahill has the largest single cap hit of a guy of any quarterback this season, though. Yes. And it's not cheap next year either. Yeah. So I don't. I can't. Carson wins?

I absolutely. I would like a guy to lead my team if I'm going to draft him as a quarterback. Fuck it. I'm taking it. Tom Brady. Love it. Dang it. I actually was hoping you didn't, so I could just swoop him up.

And I'm going to let him, I'm going to take him as a broadcaster as well. There you go. And a clothing salesman and a TikTok star. It's, I. So I'm taking the complete person, Tom Brady. He's so likable, isn't he? It's so frustrating. Just hocking sunglasses.

How Tom Brady has become like one of the most likable people is like, it's incredible. This turn, getting him out. of New England making him good on social media. Yeah. Drunk on the freaking boat. Huge face turn. Huge face turn. Yeah, I know.

It's a really good application of resources. If I could pay like tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of dollars to other people to make them make me likable, I would also do that. Right. Same as all those, the memes about Tom Brady looking better at 45 than he did when he was 22. That's what money does. Like having all the money in the world sounds amazing.

You weren't ugly. You were poor. There's like a meme. He's investing in himself. That's what he's doing. No, but Tom Brady, he's got $37.5 million to invest in himself every single year while he's calling games. Maybe that brief retirement, his six weeks or whatever it was,

he's decided he's going to play four more years. Maybe he's like, not for me. This life ain't for me. He gave three weeks of it or whatever it was. You just alluded to this, Nate. And beyond the other options not being great and him just being Tom Brady, what he was. on the field last year is one of the reasons that one year of Tom Brady is better than four years

of other guys here. He could have won the MVP last year. Like if he would have gotten it and no one would have been like, oh, that's, no, that's wrong. He played at that level last season. He was as important to his team's success as any other quarterback in the NFL was to his team success last year at age 43. Yeah. It's wild. He was second in QBR. He was lowest in sack percentage. And in that freaking offense, he had 3% of sacks. He only took 22 sacks on the entire season. And he He took all over a turn of a worthy play percentage according to PFF as well. I mean, and it's the hardest offense.

That is the hardest offense for a quarterback to play in because you're not only you have to be right, you're pushing the ball as you have to be right. Quick game in being right is one thing. Pushing it down the field and doing it is ridiculous. So he's doing a high wire act in his mid 40s and making it look easy. It's insane actually what he really did. Interception percentage.

I mean, everything. He threw over 700 times. You know, he gets sack 22 times in his mid 40s. And, you know, we've seen Tom Brady. run.

It's not like he's, he's really, you know, making guys miss in the pocket as far as a scrambler, but he's, he's on another level. And so as a player, I totally get this,

even if you're only getting one year. All right. All right, Tom, play till you're 50. Let's just do it. He might, he absolutely might.

If the dolphins give him half the team next year, you might get a few more years in time. Yeah, I still get him, even if he's on the dolphins, right? Absolutely. He's just a quarterback. Cool. Cool.

All right. Nate, wrap us up here, my friend. Oh, Mr. irrelevant. Uh, I'm torn between two second year guys.

Neither of them are very fun for me right now. Like you're projecting with Trey Lance, even if I liked him as a prospect and I'm watching him in this past year. I didn't think about Trey Lance. That one is, I know. And I'm still, his upside is still tantalizing. Just watched him again against Houston. And it's just for the,

and it's just rewatching that game. I see the flashes there. But the thing is, having said all that, I have appreciated Mac Jones's game a little more. And I'm going to take Mac Jones here. I pick 15. He's going to be a Mr. Irrelevant for our draft. I like him a lot more than I thought now of reviewing the film a little bit.

He is incredibly accurate. I would say one of, if not the most accurate quarterback in the league. A little bit is that because he doesn't have the gunslinger arm strength that these other guys have. But his way to operate on time is exceptional, especially for a guy at such a young age. So that is what's really appealing to him. Does he have the upside these other guys do? No, we all know that. That's what he was coming in.

But he's going to get the most of whatever offense that he runs in. And I think he could be a good starter for a long time. He's going to rely more on what's around him as far as like. But you can spend on what's around him because he's cheaper than the other guys here. That's what I was going to say is that his second contract will be interesting. But right now as a rookie contract guy, what you can put around him, he's going to maximize those guys. Does Billacheck know that you can. spend around him.

He did it last all season. And then he was like, oh man, that felt weird. The moment you spend $11 million a year on Nelson Aguara, it's going to make you a little gun shy about free agency moving forward. Hey, he got Kendrick Bourne though. That's the one on the best side. Yeah, I mean, I am interested to see how Taekwong Thornton looks at offense because he'll open things up for them.

So I want to see what that looks like now that and Devonte Parker a little bit. I want to see what Mack Jones looks like with those true rankings. guys as opposed to guys are more kind of like nuanced guys like a hunter henry or kentrick born and maybe now that josh macdainals is not there anymore who knows who's calling plays for him jose jose joseph and say in this experiment are you going to have a better play caller for him or a better plan for play caller for mac jones better plan maybe matt patricia or joe judge i'll announce and know who's calling the plays and designing the plays by now by may you know may 19th when this comes out so that will all be all be established for him going into a year or two i think that's

important to nail that your offensive play car for your rookie contract quarterback all right what a disaster 10 through 15 was that was really fun i ended up with three of the same five quarterbacks that i had last year and that was partly by saying fucking taking tom brady at the end but um so i just to zoom out for a second i was joking with you guys earlier today as we were preparing to do this like there are no good quarterbacks in the nfell and i was joking but We've had this discussion a few times on the podcast over the last couple of months, mailbags, other things we've dug into about, is there a quarterback surplus in the league right now? You know, with Jimmy Garoppolo not having a starting job, Baker Mayfield kind of languishing. Is there a surplus?

The answer is no, because there are still so few guys where in this exercise, like, oh, 100% pencil it in. That guy's a difference maker. I can build around this guy and win because he's there. That list of guys is not that. long. It disappears much quicker than you think it might. There are a lot of dudes as we're doing this sitting there making $35 million a year that's like, all right, I guess. And so I think that speaks to the desperation around this position. And when you do this exercise and you actually go through it, I think you feel that a little bit more than when you're just watching games on

Sunday or looking at the numbers, because the numbers are pretty good. Like that overall, all the offensive efficiency, quarterback play, all of that stuff has never been higher. But when you're actually going through it, the list of guys, it's like, oh, shit, yeah,

I want this guy. It is smaller than you think it is. Yeah, I'm looking at my list right now, like my five. I'm thrilled for my five for 2020. Not feeling so great about it for like 20, 25. You went old.

It's great. You know what? You're just getting in touch with the other 40-year-olds here. I'm not on the list. That's what that's what you're doing. As the eldest person on this podcast, as a 40-year-old. I think, I think Shiel, Capadia, nailed it when he's talking about quarterbacks right now, though.

He was saying that competency at the position has never been easier to achieve, but you don't want to languish. You don't want to languish in that area. That's exactly right. That's exactly right. Getting to that top end is harder than ever. But competency, the floor has risen, but the ceiling's never been higher. Yeah, that gap between competency. and mastery.

Yes. Yes. I think she'll nail that, but I think that's what we're all saying. It's, yeah, it's an interesting place to be in this week. I love that this reinforced our car continuum.

It really set that far. Because you feel the car continuum as you sit in it. It is very real. Yeah. It's funny. Like, that's the cutoff. Like,

that's where it is. It's right outside the top 10. And that's funny. And that's, and car, Jimmy G was part of that kind of grouping. Like, it's kind of like he's 0.8 cars.

Baker. It's so funny how much those guys are. There's a whole bunch of guys that we didn't even, you know, other guys who will be starting quarterbacks in the league this year. Jalen Hertz, James Winston, the other, some of the other guys. You're mentioned Matt Ryan. You already mentioned him. I mean, yeah, I mean, there's plenty of guys. And Drew Locke. We didn't mention him as well. But yeah, no, it's, it's, but once you start realizing who you would actually want in and going with your team, that's where you have to go down. Yeah, I could have gone more other directions outside of fields if I wanted somebody that's like, all right,

I know what this is. Like Tannenhill cousins, I know what that is. But I just, I think that the upside and just the swing is way more fun when you're doing something like this. I agree. All right.

We have more quarterback conversations coming. Me and Nate are going to dig into last year's rookies on tomorrow's show. I think it's important to kind of check in with those guys. We really didn't for a while. I was pushing off Justin Fields' conversations for a while because I really wanted to go back and watch. So we've been doing that over the last few days. So we're going to have an extended chat about.

about those guys on Friday show. Please come back and check that out. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform with choice. Sincerely appreciate that. Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. Now is a great time, even though it's the offseason. We've got tons of great stuff coming through on the NFL side at the site.

So please go check all that stuff out. We will be back tomorrow. Until then, talk to you guys soon. show.