The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Most Valuable QB Draft with Nate Tice & Lindsay Jones

Episode Date: May 19, 2021

Based on age, contract and of course, traits, how will our panel of experts draft the league's best QB's? Nate Tice and Lindsay Jones both join the pod for a special Most Valuable QB Draft. Who will be the top 5? Bottom 5? Any QBs that were left out? Let us know on social media!Remember to get that special discount to The Athletic at theathletic.com/footballshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. Nate Tice is here. Lindsay Jones is here. We are doing a most valuable quarterback draft. Before I get to those guys, let me lay out what that means.

Instead of ranking the top 10 quarterbacks in the league, which I've done before, a lot of other people do. I want to do a little bit differently. I wanted us to draft the most valuable quarterbacks in the league. And that means not just for 2021, but for the next five years, quarterbacks included independent of their surroundings. Now, the guys they play with, if you were starting with these guys in their current contracts, current age, how would they be drafted? One more bit of housekeeping, one more little parameter here.

We are not going to include Deshaar Watson in this list. We did not feel like we should. We didn't feel like it was appropriate to speculate on what his future would look like. it just didn't seem like it should be part of this because it's just it's a separate consideration. So going into this, just know that. Deshawn Watson is not going to be part of this list. That's something that we can revisit at a later date. And I wanted to include Nate and Lindsay in this process.

And I'm very excited to get started. Guys, thank you very much for doing this. Thanks. I'm so excited. I really miss doing the mailbag pod with you guys last week. So I'm really excited to be part of this trio, finally. If you were on that mailbag pod, last week, I think we would have gotten through three questions because Robert and I, we were so

excited. We have all this space. We're going to answer all these questions. And then like, we were on like question four after like an hour and 10 minutes. I was like, okay. I want to go. tighter if Lindsay was involved. I would have up to my hosting duties a little bit. So we went over the order last night. I was originally going to do a snake draft. But I think logistics of that just aren't worth it. So I did a random, I did a random order generator. And I got screwed. I have the third pick here. Since we're not doing Snake, I'm at a disadvantage. I was willing to do that. But the way it shook out was Lindsay first, Nate second, and I'm third. We're going to do the top 15, which gives us five quarterbacks each. So that gets half the

starters. That allows us to have individual teams. I just thought that was the cleanest way to do this. So Lindsay, why don't you start us off? Why are you taking Drew Locke first overall in the quarterback back draft. Yeah, spoiler alert, Drew Locke is not on my list nor is Teddy Bridgewater. I mean, we'll see. We'll see how deep we have to go here to get 15 guys. But there's going to be as little drama with my number one overall pick as there was in the actual 20, 21 NFL draft. I'm taking Patrick Mahomes.

I'm not even wasting five seconds on the clock to take Patrick Mahomes at number one. And I thank you random pick order generator for allowing me to have Patrick Mahomes here for my team. So, I mean, I think it's obvious, right? I mean, physical tools. Any reason that you didn't, that you wouldn't have done it. So with contracts involved,

obviously he has gotten his extension. Right. The huge money kicks in starting next year. So when you were stacking up the pros and the cons, was there any just random stray thought in your mind? Maybe I go a different direction here because of the money. No, no. And especially because the,

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, his contract is ridiculous. It's the biggest contract in NFL history. He's making it. average annual salary of $45 million a year, which, you know, that's a ridiculous amount of money, 10-year contract. But the salary cap is going to be going up, and it's probably going to be going

up very soon. These new TV deals are going to kick in. The chances are that he actually plays out the terms of this contract, very small. At some point, he's going to have to negotiate. Probably not within the time frame of this exercise, though. So I think when we get a couple years down the road and deals just keep exploding, it's not going to be as outrageously expensive as it looked at the time. So, yeah, there's no hesitation. I mean, you could talk about like, oh, well, now he's starting to have some injuries. He had a dislocated kneecap. He had the off-season surgery on his toe.

You know, would these things eventually add up? I think those are kind of nitpicking where clearly, like, this is us, you know, debating, like, if Trevor Lawrence loves football enough two weeks before the draft, like, it's a clear they're number one and nobody should think twice about it. Do you think that Mahomes is in his own tier when you're stacking this up? Do you think it's, do you think the gap between one and two is bigger than the gap between two in the field? Yeah.

How you put it right there is exactly how I look at it. I think he's just his own, he's Mahomes. It's just like his own God tier. You know, I think of like video games and stuff, they have S tier and then they go A tier, B or tier, like he's S tier. He's his own tier and then everybody else is after that. not saying that these other guys aren't legit franchise guys or really, really all pro candidate worthy guys. It's just that we got a good is good and generational is generational.

And that's how we have to look at Patrick Mahomes. It's just that that's how good he is, is that he truly always going to have that little gap between him and the other guys. All right, Nate, you were on the clock now. I feel like this fell pretty good for you, actually, all things considered with you having the number two pick in your personal history. but you keep saying that and it's like now I'm like scared am I like overthinking this but I with the number two pick the Nate Tice you know quarterback selection group uh selects deck Prescott wow wow yeah that's why you kept saying that and I'm like are you sure you know who I'm going with here like yeah I saw you tweeting Dak Prescott clips earlier and I was

I was going to be at five nope I teased it I was ready to take him at three to jump exactly thank you but no he wasn't coming there at five i am taking dac prescott here and i i oh ready for some machine gun fire right here uh so why why why why him over russell wilson so oh okay so even coming off injury uh first off age right he's going right into his prime right here especially at a quarterback position russ is more older than we think and i'll just get a little negative with russ russ has you know his i don't think his game is going to age as well as we think we know russ's limitations at this point Can't throw a quick game that well. You know, short game like five yards in front of them, that's kind of dead.

Really he's a one to two read guy and scramble. So we know his passing limitations. So as he ages and his athleticism deteriorates, because that's just father time is undefeated, maybe doesn't age as well as we hope he would. And I love Russ. I mean, everyone knows this. But I think Dak, on the other hand, he's entering right into his prime. And honestly, that injury does not phase me at all because that he is, yes, he's a good athlete.

He's big and all that. but he's a true QB. And that's hopefully with that one clip, my little preview, and that was my little teaser for this show, is that that's what it shows, is that he is going to age great. It's just that he can throw out all three levels. His pre-snap operation, like with him,

before, with Travis Frederick and now what he has, it's just, I mean, it's elite tier, no matter who are you chalking it up to. It's him and the old guys, you know, who are mostly retiring right at this point. But all that pre-snap stuff, all right, he's got a handle on it. He's turning 28.

Okay, he's only going to get better. It doesn't matter who's around him. And then honestly, I know the contract's ridiculous, but he's worth it. I mean, he's a top, top tier guy. He's been top four in QBR every year since he's been a starter except for one season. That's as elite as it gets. I've always looked at kind of elite quarterbacks almost like Sith Lords. Like there's only like two, three or four of them and then one has to drop out before

another one kind of gets in. And I think he's just always been a part of that tier. And I think he's just only going to get better as he's in his prime. And those quarterback things that he already shows that he can do is just going to get better at it. So I just think he's going to age well. I'm getting him right in a prime of his career on this contract. It's a four-year deal. We're doing this for five years.

So I'm fine with it. And yeah, so, Dak Prescott, hop on board, buddy. Let's go win some championships. Lindsay, how are you processing this? I mean, I'm okay with that. I mean, I was prepared to take him at number four. So if he had still been there at number four.

So I think all of those points are really valid. And since this kind of is an exercise where we're looking at the player and the player's age in his contract and a little less. the situation around him, I'm starting to have questions about the cowboys and how they're going to be built, where they're spending their money, what the offensive line looks like when he had his best, you know, kind of his best early seasons. The Cowboys were the best running team in the football, one of the best offensive lines in football. That is no longer the case. I'm with you, Nate, though, about his injury, not being a massive concern to me. I mean,

it was a concern back in September, but I think I'm kind of less worried about that now. So, yeah, I think I'm okay with that. I'm okay with that. The money is not crazy for kind of the same reasons that I think the Patrick Mahomes money isn't crazy just because of where the NFL is headed. So, yeah, I'm kind of mad he's off the board now, though. So here's my counter to that, though. You're paying Patrick Mahomes money to Dak Prescott in 20203 and 2024. I mean, this is sticker price stuff.

He's going to be, if not the most expensive quarterback in the league during that stretch, than one of the two most expensive quarterbacks in the league during that stretch. You are paying top top, top dollar for this guy. And if you think that's worth it, Nate thinks he's worth it. That's fine. Yeah, I do. And I do. I mean, I brought stats into this.

I mean, come on. It's like, I mean, we go eye tests. I mean, anything you put around him, he had to go through to Jason Garrett ears. And now he's doing what he has to do with Mike McCarthy and what's going on. No matter what happens with him, this guy is infallible. I mean, like he is just, he brazen. is the bar of everybody. And it's not just like the defenses that he played with last year when he was healthy.

It was just like, I mean, bottom, bottom tier defenses, which is fine. I know he has nothing to do with that. But the fact that they were in games and won some of those games, it was truly just DAC. And honestly, I, when we first, I first did my first grade of this, he was my number two guy. And I was like, okay, I'm going to recheck everybody just to make sure I'm not kind of like misremembering certain things. I'm like, yeah, I'm sticking with this. Just all the polish he has and just what he just does everything good. Like there's not even like above average or average.

It's like he's good or better at everything. And he's just, and he's in the prime his career. I just think this is kind of no brainer. I get your argument paying him top tier money, but that's the thing. My argument is he's a top tier guy. That's worth that money.

Yeah. And we've said this. You can't overpay a top foot flag quarterback. If you think you have one of the top three to five guys, it's always going to be worth it. They're always underpaid when you think about what they're worth is relative to the salary cap and everything else. Yeah.

And let's say the salary cap is $220 million dollars in 2024 or, or 2023 during the life of this deal. It's that that makes it a little bit easier to palette or a, like, makes it a little more palatable. Sorry. I don't know what I'm going to do now because I was not ready for this situation to unfold. Just take Justin Fields and get it over with. Yeah, I know. He is, he's dangerously high on my board.

Still on the board. All right. So now I have to regroup a little bit because I just assumed you were going to take Wilson at two. And then I would be left with a couple other guys at three. and now without logic you'd think that I would just immediately rush the card up for Russell Wilson but I've emotionally committed to a different situation here so I don't know what I want to do oh man can I trade out can I trade down and get more picks just get a bunch of the above average guys you're going to let the you're going to let the time run out and I'm just going to get to draft

hey all right all right um yeah I was the one worried about clock running out because I have family history with that. So I was the one worried about the clock running out on me. All right. I'm going to take Russell Wilson at three. Okay. And I hear what you're saying, Nate, about just everything with him maybe not aging as gracefully, some of the limitations to his game that already exist. I think the second half of last season is concerning. I mean, what their offense, especially their passing game looked like. But even if you look at that second half of last season and how it was a little bit disappointing what Seattle's passing game

look like. This is still a team that finished sixth and pass offense DVOA. They've finished in the top six each of the last three years. I wouldn't say that these are the greatest circumstances.

His offensive line, while exacerbated by his own tendencies, has not been very good. I think that schematically it's been a little state with a couple of the previous offensive coordinators that have been there.

And they have still been a top seven, top 10 passing offense essentially every single year because of his presence. And I still think that if you're getting 32, which he is right now, through 36, I can live with that. Even if we think the athleticism is going to deteriorate a little bit, I still think that tranche of years is worth going after because of just how consistently good he has been. If you look at the contract, 32 million in 2021, 37 million in 2022, 40 million in 2023.

I'm getting him for less than you're getting DAC. and for less than obviously Mahomes is going to go for. But at five years older. Yeah, five years older, of course. But I just think that money-wise, it's not prohibitive what he's getting paid and what he probably will get paid. And absolutely, in five years, has he taken a huge tumble and has the decreased athleticism taken its toll? It could happen. But I think 32 through 37 with the way the sport currently exists, I'm okay with that.

Again, this is not a scenario that I was ready to talk. about. So I'm a little bit caught off guard here. But if I have to do this, that I'm good with it. Who are you leaning? Oh, I'm not going to tell. I'm not going to tell you. I'm not going to get him at six now. Oh, no. I'm not going to sneak it out of him. I'm not giving shit away. I thought it got out of you. Man, this is where we are three picks in here. This is already off the rails. Perfect. We're now at four. Lindsay, you are back on the clock. Okay. So with my first pick, I took the most expensive quarterback in football. So now I'm, I'm going to take a guy who's going to be on his rookie contract for the duration of our experiment,

and I'm going to take Trevor Lawrence. Yeah. Wow. Off the board. That's, wow. I did not expect him to go this time. I really didn't. I love this.

I love this. So, okay, look, so I know that the big risk and the big question with him, right, is that we just, we don't know if he's going to do it, right? We just, we've never seen him do it. But if we're talking, I'm going to quote Nate right now, generational is generational. everything that we've seen, everything we've talked about about Trevor Lawrence is that he is generational. So I'm going to trust that I might be better at building my franchise around him than the Jacksonville Jaguars might be. I don't know.

I'm not going to sign a 32-year-old former quarterback to play tight end to join that locker room. I'm going to empower Trevor Lawrence to be the leader of my franchise. And I think he can be successful, independent of scheme, independent of play caller, are independent of some of the stuff that rookie quarterbacks often struggle with or the teams that have number one overall pick quarterback struggle with. So I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence and I'm going to also bank on the fact that I get him pretty cheap for the duration of this. I mean, at some point during this experiment, if he's as good as we think he is, there will be contract issues to get into. But potentially, I mean, you could go the DAC, you know, he could

play the five, you know, four years, fifth year option. You get him pretty cheap for this whole time. So I'm taking Trevor and I'm not going to feel bad about it. If you look at it, so if his contract stacks up with Joe Burroughs, if we use the same values in 2024, so the last year before his fifth year option, it would be about $11.5 million. So he'll be $36 million cheaper than DAC Prescott will be in 2020. And that year, the salary cap could be what, like $225 million or something? I mean, look, just think about it practically. Think about it. Look at some of the deals that were handed out in free agency this year. Let's say what the Jets did.

And I know that the deals will go up as the cap goes up. But if we're using those numbers, for example, you could go get Carl Lawson, Corey Davis, and two more capable starters for the gap in cap hit between what DAC will make and what Trevor Lawrence will make in 2024. So while it seems insane to pick a guy forth in this exercise that has never taken an NFL snap, I understand it. I understand why you'd be willing to take that sort of gamble. Well, Nate, when you think about Lawrence and the fact that we haven't seen him on an NFL field yet, what's the number one thing that concerns you? What is the reason you wouldn't pull the trigger this high in this sort of gimmick? I mean, I was taking them next. So I'm kind of like, all right.

Jesus. All right. So, yeah. So I'm kind of with Lindsay. I know. Lindsay and I have the same big board right now. But I honestly, the only, my only only concern, I would say, actually, no, that's, I just ruined all that. one of my concerns is that sometimes, you know, he would, you know, the deep ball isn't perfect.

He has to put everything that he's got into it. Like I would say that was one of his detriments. I would say sometimes maybe the transition to the NFL is going to be a little, okay, who knows? Also, he's very skinny. I will admit that. He is a very skinny guy. So you don't, there might be some durability stuff. He has gotten banged up over his career.

I do think he has a frame to grow, though. So I'm not too worried. But, you know, you do have to keep that into consideration if we're going to look at this as the number four overall pick or the number one overall pick in real life. This draft has a little more precedence, you know, a little more prestige in my head, or a little three person draft here than a real draft. But no, I honestly, when I wrote my notes on here, I go, number one pick on a rookie deal. I'm getting them cheap for four years at least.

I really do think he's a no-brainer, even with whatever Urban's doing down there. And I just think at worst, this guy is a good starter. He's in that above average to good starter tier. And then I think that's honestly his floor. I mean, it's really hard to find blemishes with this guy because I truly do think he is a generational guy. Well, so the good news, Robert, is your guy is still on the board. I got plenty of guys still on the board. I would be such a shitty NFL GM.

I'm so incapable of pivoting when things don't go my way. Like, the fact that there have been a couple surprises here in the first four picks. I'm completely out of sorts. Like, I'm just totally lost now. You're scraming on your pages of notes. It's awful. I'm totally screwed. All right.

Number five, Nate, you're back on the board. What are you thinking? I'm going with the reigning MVP, Aaron Rogers. Wow. And I know. And I get it. I get it. I'm going to expensive team, man.

Maybe I'm a bad NFL guy too, just not finding a budget guy. I was going to go with him at three. If Wilson was off the board. If you guys had gone Mahomes Wilson, which I expected you to, I was between two guys at three and I thought I was going to go with Rogers. I was like, you know what? And here's what I'll ask you.

So Rogers is 37. You were concerned about Russell at 32. Rogers is 37. So you're in this exercise going 37, 38, 39, 40, 41 for Aaron Rogers. He may not even be playing at 41. You only may get three years here out of the five years. Does that concern you at all? No, and you've fallen into my trap.

It's that I know he's 38 at this season and this hypothetical five-year deal. Why I think Rogers, I think Rogers is going to age well, which we've already seen him age a little bit, because he's not as relying on his athleticism. He's a decent athlete, but that's not how he wins. How he wins is freaking throwing God to your throws, accurate, on time, everything just knife in the dive or knifing guys down the field or just ad-libbing a play. I know that's athleticism, but it's a different one. Russell is that Fran Tarkington running around back, back and forth. He's like a double extended scramble. Rogers is more like hanging in the pocket than a quick little ad lib and throw it off pocket or off platform.

I'm sorry. I think that his skill set ages really well. He's got originally he had elite, elite all-time arm strength. And now I think it's more very good, but it's still very good. And I think it'll drop down to good. I think now his accuracy has always just been great. That doesn't really fade away from you. It's athleticism and arm strength that's going to drop for you.

But the thing is, his game translates well. He already throws all those little dink and dunk passes anyways, which just it's like dinkad dunk, ding and dug kind of losey to sleep. And then he just does three throws that are just like, holy crap. Like the one that stuck out to me was against the box. They were running two man. They ran two men, basically the whole game. And then he had a throw on the bender right over the guy over the winebacker's head.

And that type of throw is like, that doesn't go away. Like, you know, it's not like all of a sudden next year he's going to drop her two years after that. Maybe at the end of this five year deal, Yeah, he can't do that, but that's accuracy and timing that you're winning with that type of throw, not arm strength. And that's what I said is arm strength, athleticism is the stuff that drops down. We think of like guys like Drew Burris, especially the last couple of years, just thinking and Duncan popcorn arm could barely even throw a dig ball.

Everything else got on time. Drew Burris was a good athlete and I actually had good arm strength. We bombs away play action stuff. And he just aged into that. I think Rogers will just continue to age into that. And not to exactly what Burrese was, but kind of just. more of that kind of super accurate with once in a while he can he can throw up two or three deep balls a game as opposed to maybe five or six just because that's what he is i just think that

he ages well and that's my argument against from russ and rogers is because russ i think realized so much on arm strength and athleticism so i think just what they rely on to win on every snap i just don't think rogers is ever going to have that drop off that uh russ might have now you're making me question my decision at three should i have gone rogers like i originally was planned on doing. Now I'm going back and reconsidering. I feel good. I feel good about it. Did you see Aaron Rogers is now in the TB12 method? So he might play till he's 45. He seriously could. I mean, the idea that this guy won the MVP last year and was playing at that sort of level,

even if you only got three years, let's say. I think three years at a borderline MVP level and then you figure out your quarterback situation over the next two. That would have been my argument if I had taken him at three. Let's say you only get three years. If you're getting three years of MVP caliber football, then I think that's okay. So now is there. Can I ask one more question about. Yeah. Rogers where we are. Is there any concern for you, Nate, about just kind of all of the other Aaron Rogers stuff that he might say, screw it. I don't want to play anymore or I don't need to play anymore or I hate my. What if he hates you and wants to get you fired? In this hypothetical, he loves me. And I let him do I let him do the I let him do jeopardy in off season. I let him do whatever he wants. You know, he might have to pick your receivers. Yeah. Yeah. He can do whatever he wants. Hey, man. Hey, you want, yeah, Jake? You want Jake back? Yeah, let's come on, come on. Sign them up. We're good. We're good. We'll have Jake from State Farm line up for him just because he knows those deals. But that's, that's the problem, though, Nate, is that you're going to have Aaron Rogers, but your starting receivers are going to be Randall, Jake Kumero and Jordi Nelson. Jorni Nelson now. Jerry Nelson when he was with the Raiders. Yeah, I do think he's going to be on the Trebek method and age pretty well. So I'm pretty, I'm pretty excited for my team so far. I'll just tell you, Rogers,

was my number three on my big board. So I've got, for me, I got my number two and number three. So I'm pretty excited right now. So maybe Robert and I both fucked up is what you're saying. So I might have. I wish I had just gone with Rogers at three now that I go back and look at it. But okay. You're going to get a great player right now. I believe in. Yeah. So here's my thing. Because the way that I had a wager on this. The way that I had it stacked up is that I thought I would get this guy at six. I'd be thrilled. I actually had somebody that I was on the border line of picking it. There's so many complicated of things going on here. My answer is Justin Herbert.

Oh, yeah. And I was torn between him and Josh Allen. So if you look at it, a few different things to take into account. Josh Allen is 24 turns 25 this week. Josh Allen's $6.9 million cap it this year, 23 on his fifth year option next year. Then the extension comes. Josh Allen's only five months older than Joe Burrow. I mean, he is still a young quarterback, all things considered.

And if you look at what he did last year, it's hard to argue with. I mean, he had a 79.1% adjusting completion rate was the sixth highest mark in the league. The jump in accuracy is staggering. I mean, they were so good offensively last year. But I went back today just to kind of really look at it, to dig in. And I watched three Justin Herbert games. And I just think Justin Herbert is going to be like a special quarterback. And when you think about his overall ability plus the contract, it's $6 million this year,

7.2 next year, 8.4 in 2023. He is the 144th highest cap hit in the NFL in 2023. He's making $36 million less than Dak Prescott. And I think with what he showed as a rookie last year, I'm not even necessarily projecting linear improvement. I know there are aspects to his game that are volatile. I know he was excellent under pressure last year. I think I want to say he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt when pressured.

I mean, that sort of stuff is unsustainable. But when you look at the way he felt pressure last year, Nate, I'm sure you see this when you watch him. His ability to just kind of step to the side a little bit, find a new footing, and deliver strikes down the field is crazy. Even if the performance under pressure, the numbers may come back to Earth a little bit, his feel for pressure is real. And his ability to navigate pressure is real. And I've just so struck by how twitchy he is for a six-s. six guy, how he moves, how he can reset, how he gets rid of the ball really quickly. And then you combine that with just the overall arm strength and arm talent.

I mean, his ability to deliver the ball to every single level of the field accurately is really special. I mean, some of those just cross the field comeback throws that he can make. He makes them look effortless. So even if there are some elements of his game that come back to Earth a little bit, I just think over the next five years at that price, Just with the potential that he has shown, I'm willing to bet on him. And I just think that his overall trajectory, Alan is, Alan was great.

But I just think that the ceiling on Herbert might be even higher than that. I know that's crazy to say. But when you consider the contract, you consider everything else. I'm comfortable with where he's going here. Yeah. No, it's funny you say that because we talked about a couple of weeks or on the mailback. And what, hey, what are kind of the downsides maybe with the chargers or maybe why we should hedge? I did the same thing you did.

I watched a couple games. And then I was like, okay, they didn't ask him to do a ton last year. I know he's a rookie. But guess what? Everything they did at the chargers did ask him to do. He looked really freaking good when he did it. So it was like everything was coming out on time. His eyes were really good.

He still has some footwork stuff to clean up. But then it's like he has the arm. His sliding scale is so huge or is room for error, I should say, because of just the tools he has. And it looks like he is smart enough and understands where he's getting asked. One of those downsides, what I had with Drew. lock even going into this year was I know he had a late start on his rookie year but then they really just ran really basic plays for him the last you know the end of his rookie year is you know looked like day one day two install so at first I was like okay it's his first start you know

week 12 or whatever it was okay let it happen but then they stuck with it and he looked like he was struggling I love how I'm praising Justin Herbert here and I still managed to get a little like side jab in the jerlock but but then you watch Justin Herbert running these exact same concepts there's one called Ernie which is triple slant spacing just basic stuff and this is, hey, this is what Lombardi's going to run too. So that's what's funny. He just, everything's perfect. Eyes are perfect.

Timing is perfect. He has that natural feel for not just his mental clock is very good. And I think that's what you're talking to about his moving away from pressure. He has that kind of natural feel in the pocket where he's like, something behind me is not right. So I'm going to start escaping out to this side. Not a lot of guys have that. But he's not turning and running. He's not pulling the ball and going.

It's subtle movement. It's always trying to push the ball downfield. And it's not like he's bolting from pockets. It's a shuffle here. It's a shuffle there. Just resetting. Just resetting and finding windows. And he needs such little daylight to get the ball off that even if you reset to a tiny little window, he's still able to get it off.

One of my favorite stats from him, 13% of his pressure has turned into sacks last year. That was the seventh best mark in the NFL just behind Drew Brees, just ahead of Tom Brady. and Phil Rivers. That's for a rookie. That's incredible. And it's not just, again, it's not using athleticism to rush out of pockets

and run away from pressure. It's feeling it. And I just think his feel for the game plus the physical tools, again, I'm totally comfortable taking him. I know it's really high, especially with Josh Allen as an option in this spot.

But going back and watching, I expected those three games to kind of sway me in the other direction to tell me, yeah, you know what? He wasn't that impressive. When you really dig into it, he wasn't as good as you remember. He was better than I remembered near the end of last season.

He was really good. And I'll say my one thing I want to say about Justin Herbert, too, that's not tied to like advanced metrics or anything like that is this time last year, I think, and certainly into training camp, maybe our question about him was like, what was his personality like? Who was he kind of like? Was he like a dude? Right. And I think what we saw and what his teammates saw about him is that he is tough as hell.

and they love playing with him and for him. And it's been really kind of fun to watch him grow into this role. And he might never be the Peyton Manning kind of personality guy, but I think he is really tough. He's going to hang in the pocket. He's going to take some really big hits. I mean, there are a couple. I mean, you've seen that one a couple times where he, like, knocked out a linebacker

who, like, he delivered the hit kind of when the guy was trying to. It might have been a DB. But he just, like, he's. just really fun to watch. I think he's really fun to play with. And he has hung in in some really big games that he probably had no business going throw for throw with Tom Brady as a rookie. He's played some of his best games when they've, you know, it was his first start against the chiefs. Am I remembering this correctly when he had to get pulled in and the chargers tend to play really well? So like, I think he's going to be play big in his big moments. That was after the

shot to the line. Umma, umma, umma, Thurman and Pulpiction scenario. Yeah. Todd Taylor. Poor Tyrod. No, I agree with you. What you're saying with Justin is just that he does play tough. He doesn't have that raw, raw. Oh my God. You know, look at me, Tebow.

I'm drooling from the mouth. Like, you know, all that stuff. But it's like toughness can come out in other ways and guys respect it. I agree with you, Lindsay, all the way. It's that he has those moments. Like, even in the games I watched, you could see throughout the game. He had a throw. Yeah, I think he missed the throw.

And the line, he got rocked on it. And the line would come back and you could tell her just like, hey, dude, like, like thanks. Like, like, thanks for getting that ball. off because it should have been a sack. And it's like guys remember that. Like they might not just go, oh yeah, he's going to come out and fire us up. But it's like those plays fire guys up, even just internally going like, this guy's got my back. He's going to deliver like, you know, next time we're in a heated moment. He's going to deliver a good throw. There's something about being level ahead in those types of moments. My one concern for you, Robert, is like what will

just being a charger do? Well, he's not a charger in this scenario. In this scenario, he's on my team. But does like the chargerness carry with him in this experience? It's serious. It's stank. It didn't matter last year. So now that I'm getting him out of there, I feel even better about it. And it's the dealing with pressure part of it is such a huge thing for me because I think that when you have a quarterback that's comfortable in the pocket, they can navigate the pocket in subtle ways. It's so important. And the one thing with Josh Allen, he still holds on to the ball a lot. If you look at he had the longest time to throw in the NFL outside of Jalen Hertz. A non-Jailen Hertz quarterbacks, Alan at 2.85 seconds still at the longest time to throw in the league.

A lot of that is the amount of play action that they use. But if you watch him, he has to watch it come open every once in a while. He still holds on to it a lot. And I just, that's my only concern about him. I think he's going to be a star. And we saw what they did with that offense last year. But I just have the tiniest kernel of doubt about aspects of his game. And I just think with the contract and the upside with Herbert, that was the deciding factor for me.

So again, I feel okay about it. Lindsay, seventh pick. You're back on the board here. Say, now that you just talked a bunch of shit about my guy, I'm taking Josh Allen. Let me, I want to be clear to that. I want to be clear about this before like the bills. Bill's fans at right. I love Josh Allen.

This is the only reason. The only reason that I took Herbert is because I just, I love Justin Herbert. I like, I was in the bag for Justin Herbert. I've been clear about this. I think it was obvious last year. I just think his ceiling is non-existent with the physical tools and his ability to deliver throws to every level of, every level of, every level of, every level of, I'm, the field. I think Josh Allen's going to be a star. I think he is a star. But it's just little tiny

edges for Justin Herbert. Lindsay, now he's going to give me your Josh Allen thing now that I'm protected myself. Yeah. So here's why I'm going to take Josh Allen. It's because I, selecting here, I am going to bank that 2020 Josh Allen is the real Josh Allen and is just starting on kind of who he is going to be for the rest of his career. He's such an anomaly in the way that he improved after the first couple of years of his career when he was bad. I mean, I think he was objectively bad, right? I think we can say that without Bill's fans getting all up in our mentions about it. He was bad.

And it's really difficult to become more accurate in the NFL. And he remarkably did that. The bills have done a really brilliant job of building around him. So when I'm bringing Josh Allen into my team that I'm building, I'm kind of going to follow the Bill's model and the way that they've, the skill position players that they've signed or traded for, the offensive line additions that they've made. They've been really smart about this.

And I think it's wonderful for him. And I would love to do this for my team if I'm keeping him as well. But Brian Dable did not get a head coaching job this year. I mean, I think the fact that they've found kind of the right scheme for him, the right play caller for him, and now he's going to have that consistency is going to be really huge. So I just, you know, the physical tools, I mean, there's just so few guys in the NFL who give you what Josh Allen can do from an arm talent standpoint, from what he can do. with his legs from just how talented he is throwing on the run, getting outside of the pocket, the tough yards that he's going to give for you as a runner. The risks, right, is that he is still

reckless with the ball. He's going to make an, oh, shit, why did you do that play at least once a game? And I'm willing to live with that to take him here at, what are we at number seven? I'm okay with that. That's perfect. No, I agree with that. Even though, even with not a lot of their staff leaving, thankfully. It's that a lot of that accuracy I have found because mechanics, yes, is some of it, but also just mental, you know, mental processing has picked up as he gets more and more comfortable just seeing NFL speed and what he can and cannot get away with. And that's what he just keeps gauging. Like you said, Lindsay, he has that no, no, no, no, no, yes play or the no, no, oh, what are you doing play? Yes, he says no. Yeah, exactly. And he what, I mean, his first two years,

that was what, seven, eight, nine, ten times a game? Like literally. And I wish I was exaggerating there and now it's one, two or three. And it's like, and that comes with just knowing what he can get away with and just the mental aptitude. He's, he's expanding. And I think with that, that's where the accuracy ties into because his feet calm down. He anticipates now as opposed to, I hope this, I think I'm reading the right guy here. Oh, I'm laid on the throw. Well, don't worry. I have a God to your arm and just missile that thing in there. Now he can anticipate. And it gives you more room for error. And I think that's where so much is just improving with him. And I agree with you. Yeah. He still has that Captain Chaos to him, you know, Professor Chaos.

And it's just like you kind of live with that and die with it. And I, no, like you said, pick seven right here. I really like it. Alan would have been next off my board as well. And I like the chaos that he brings for good and for bad. I do bet that the 2020 version is more what he's going to be the next five years as. I agree. And I think a big part of that, like you mentioned, Nate, is that a lot of the physical improvements that we saw are driven by mental processing and mental improvements.

He just feels so much more comfortable. he's seeing the game better, what he's able to do with protections, just all the stuff on the mental side of this. I just think he's taken such huge steps in that way that I wouldn't be surprised if most, if not all of the improvements that we've seen, stick around here for the long term.

All right, Nate, eighth overall pick. You're on the board. Who are you going with? I'm pretty fired up to get Lamar Jackson right here. Fuck! I love it. I love it. I love this.

I'm so screwed. I had done. have no idea what I'm going to do now. I love my spot. I know. I just get right in the middle here. It's great. I just get each guy.

Okay. Lamar Jackson, who yeah, only still only 24 years old, somehow, some way, feel like he's been in the league forever already. You know,

we know he's going to get paid. So we know the same contract stuff we brought up with other guys. The thing with Lamar is, if I were just stacking quarterbacks in general, is, you know, he does.

Let's be honest here. But it's just that his good traits, that he wins with are elite rare really i mean a scrambling ability to ability to create on the move all that kind of stuff i mean his legit cuby run game also just the confidence that he brings in also just helps out the rest of the team like he's legitimately randy moss playing quarterback at times um it's that you know in the passing game he is going to have some limitations he prefers high lows over the middle and clean outside throws and it is what it is the problem the the good thing is this is my team i get to build whatever i want around him and i'm getting

him right now smack dab in his 20s. I'm going to be a little harsh here. I wouldn't want Lamar after he's 30. I think there is going to be some age concerns with him. Everything I brought up with Russ, kind of the same. They're different players, both literal sense, but also just how you picture him and what they do and their skill sets are. I just think, you know, I hope he shines brightly for a long, long time. It's just it's a tough way to win for a long, long time. It's just that right now, he's a phenom. And I'm excited about that. He's 24 years old. I know we're going to I have to pay him soon, but I'm fine with it because what he brings to the table. I mean, you're getting him for $3 million in 2020.

So even if you want to average the next two years, it's 23 and 22, solely because he won the MVP. So he pumped up his 50-year option as high as you could possibly do it as the 30-second overall pick. So over the next two years, it's an average of $13 million, which you can live with that every single time for a guy that's done what he's done. And if you look at the numbers, last year was framed as like a disdainment. disaster for the Ravens passing game, right? The sky is falling, fire everybody, pick three receivers. He was 14th in EPA per dropback last year. 14th.

Framed in this awful, in this awful, awful way, 14th. And this is a year after they had the most efficient offense in the NFL. They finished ninth in offensive DVOA last year in what is being construed as a down season. So if you have the ability to build around him, which in this exercise, size you do. I think there are a ton of positives in that column if we're talking about Lamar Jackson. Lindsay, what do you think about this? I like it.

I mean, I think there's maybe some risks associated, you know, because he is more scheme dependent than some of the other guys that we have talked about. But in this thought experiment, we are putting the right scheme around him or getting the right coaches. We trust that you're going to do a better job of building your wide receiver room than the Ravens had done previously before this draft. where they actually invested there recently. Thank goodness, because I've been banging the drum.

And I still hope Julio Jones winds up in Baltimore at some point. You know, I just think we just had these reminders, just like Robert said, where last year was kind of viewed as this down year. And I think it was just never fair for any of us to expect that he was going to replicate 2019. That, you know, it's unfair for us to expect that Patrick Mahomes is going to be able to put up the exact same or better type of statistics that he did from 2018. you know, those were MVP years and legit MVP years.

But what we did see last year was with even what was a really trying season and he dealt with a lot of stuff. He did have COVID and had to miss time because of COVID and was, you know, affected by it. It took him a while to recover from it. He always had those moments where every single time the ball is in his hands, you were watching. You're rewinding. You know, you're going to the All 22 to like find all of his plays. I mean, I just keep thinking about that Monday.

night game, the run to the bathroom, the locker and whatever it was game. But then when he came back, how he changed the fourth quarter of that game. And he had to have been feeling terrible. I'm sure, he had just had an IV. And he just does things on a football field that nobody else can do. There's not a single other person on the planet. There's a couple other guys on our list who might have aspects of that. But he is just so special and so unique that it's worth it's worth building around him and I think you've gotten great value. Well, thank you. And honestly, if I were picking my team, I would have taken Rashad Bateman for him as well.

So that's perfect. Like, I know. It's just real life matches art right here. We're good. So I think, and Nate, I'm curious what you think about this. I think that after Lamar, that's a tier. Like I think that these eight guys, I think that there is a big gap between these eight and the next group that we're going to talk about.

Would you agree? That's literally how my, that's literally how my list is broken down. That's exactly, we took my top eight off the big board. I'll just be honest. This is my top eight already. And then I have the next column because that's exactly how I looked at it. I have nobody else in bold. I have like a lot of other guys that I would take,

but nobody else that I've like bolded, starred like I really want. Lindsay's blue chippers. Lindsay's blue chippers are in bold. Yeah, there we go. Mine are in red. This is me just getting screwed again for being the nice guy and willing to take the third overall pick.

I love it. So there are a few different guys I think you could go with here. And let's go through the arguments. for each one so I can hedge on all of them before picking the name that I want. So I think that Kyler has to be in the conversation to some extent. He's 23 years old. You get a couple of years on that rookie deal. The explosiveness, the playmaking, what he can do on the ground, all of that stuff.

But there are limitations. We've seen those limitations. It's hard for me to extricate his limitations from what Cliff Gingsbury has put on him and what that scheme has put on him. So that's just a minefield to navigate. I think Baker Mayfield is in this conversation. He's 26 years old. We have seen him navigate a top 10 offense.

We have seen that happen. Even if you think the surroundings are great, we've seen it in practice. And I think that you have to consider that and just that his age, everything else when looking at this. I think Joe Burroughs in this conversation. He's 24 years old. Even coming off the injury, you get three more years on the rookie deal

before the fifth year option. I think I'm going with Matthew Stafford, though. Damn it. Robert. I thought you're going way different there. I was going to take, I was going to take Stafford next. Okay.

I thought you were going to go with some, I thought you were going to go with a Homer pick there. Oh, really? Oh, no. That's a little rich. That's a little rich. I thought it was coming. Oh,

that's a little rich. So here's my argument. Here's my argument for Stafford. 20 million in 2021, 23 million in 2022. Baker's 18.9. million in 2022. It's not that much different.

I mean, you're paying 10 million more for Stafford next year. But I think of it this way. Would the Rams trade two first round picks for Baker tomorrow? No way. No way. And I just think that that's what Stafford provides you. There is a physical upside to his game. And you talking about Rogers aging well?

Stafford doesn't move. Stafford's entire game is going to age well. His arm is going to be fine, I think, for the next three to four. to five years. And that's the exact bet that the Rams just made. So even if the results haven't been there for Stafford like they have been for Baker statistically last season, I just think that the physical ability, and if you surround him in the right way, even at age 33, I'm fine with those next five years. I'm fine with the ages 33 to ages 37 season and what his physical upside provides you. Is that wrong? Do you think? No, I know. I'd staffer right in this next year anyway.

I'm right there with you. I think, too, is what you're saying about aging, especially with Stafford. And I was bringing up the point with Aaron Rogers earlier. And you see it in other sports, but it's how certain guys age. Yeah, just the flamethrower and pitcher, he might not age well. It's like that closer who may not have a second pitch, you know, maybe not as accurate as other guys. They need those other traits. Stafford's accurate.

He's fine. He can create a little bit off platform. He can make all the throws. He can operate, like handle protections and all those things. So he's going to age well. It's like a guy like Vince Carter who had elite elite athleticism. And then as he got older, he kind of became like, you know, just a good, good role player. But I'm not saying Stafford's going to be a good role player.

I'm just saying this argument. But that's how Stafford's arm is because he does all the other things of being a quarterback. So that's why his arm strength is, it's an amazing trait that he has. But he does all the other things above average or good. I know you say he barely moves. And it's like he's a functional athlete. So it's going to be it's going to be fine for the next few years. But that's not how he wins.

He operates with polish, throwing on time, and just letting him rip. And yeah, I think this is a great pick right exactly where you should go. And he's only 33. I know. Isn't that incredible? Yes. And I think that's the argument. I think, again, it's the exact same bet the Rams just made.

And I think the argument for Stafford is that beyond the arm strength, he's a creative thrower, the arm angle stuff, the types of throws he can get off. I just think that there's a lot of plays available to you. He reminds me of Herbert in a way. I think they have a lot of overlapping skills. And the fact that I have both of those guys, I'm okay with it. In this range, I just think Stafford presents an upside physically as a thrower that the other guys I'd be able to get in this tier don't. And that's why I'm comfortable making that bet, even if he's 33 years old.

All right. Lindsay, we're rounding out the top 10 here. All right. Who are you going to take Stafford here. So I'm struggling a little bit. But I'm going to draft. for traits and athleticism and unique skills on a football field and I'm going to take Kyler Murray. Oh, yeah. I think that's totally acceptable. I think in this range,

that's okay. Obviously, we've seen the rushing. We've seen what that unique skill set provides. What do you still need to see from Kyler Murray? What is the one thing you want to see from him? We're like, all right, I feel comfortable banking on the next five years of his career. If I see X. Yeah, I mean, I think I want to see a little bit more of just kind of like a complete NFL passing game. Although I feel like this time last year we were talking a little bit about like we wanted him to run more and maybe they needed to be a little bit more creative to use kind of his unique athleticism. But we just still need to see them use these skill position players better to just him become a more polished NFL thrower because we know that the instincts are there. We know that he is a matchup nightmare where you get him in any sort of space. He is going to make NFL players look silly the way that he made high school players look silly

seven or eight years ago. I mean, it was really not that long ago that he was doing ridiculous things in Texas high school football. So, yeah, I just want to see him kind of function in a little bit more of a traditional NFL offense. And I don't think I never, I never want to see him be a traditional dropback passer. but there is a little bit of me that wonders if kind of this idea of like, oh, he's paired with Cliff Kingsbury and it's going to be this magic pairing of, you know, schemes and it's all going to be run and shoot and everything. Maybe that's stifling him a little bit.

And I would like to see him with somebody who's going to like maybe let him be a little bit more of a traditional quarterback, if that makes, if that makes sense. I just want to see them have just a little bit more polished, you know, a polished passing game because I think that other stuff that he provides, I think that's always going to be there. And we're seeing that even though he is small, he's tough, he's able to withstand hits.

He's really smart with the way he plays, kind of like Russell Wilson is in terms of, you know, the way that he avoids the big hits and is able to get up, get up from stuff. So I'm willing to, at here, we're top 10, right?

I'm willing to take the bet on him. Also with his age, he's still going to be cheap for a little while. So yeah, I'm going to go with my dude. I like it. That's who I would have gone with if you didn't take him. And yeah, I think what you guys have touched on, I think some of what the want, what you want to see out of him is because of just what Cliff Kingsbury's put around him in the basic scheme that he's kind of has done. And I agree. I do

want to see some more traditional dropback stuff. I mean, I think we all do. But that's what's nice about Kyler is I truly do think he's kind of scheme proof. I think, yeah, some of his physical limitations, of course, are going to limit some of the things you want him to do. But I think this guy is a guy that could operate dropping back a dozen to 15 times and reading a field. Like I think he has that way about him. Would he be able to do in a traditional sense? No, but he could do it in the same sense as like Russ and being a one to two and scramble kind of guy and winning. And I mean, that's like, and he could do it on a plus plus level.

He throws a beautiful deep ball. Intermediate throws are great. And I actually think he finds a way to throw the shorter throws that Russ sometimes isn't able to do. I just think, and right now Lindsay would get him right in a process. of his career. The one thing I always had with him was, oh, yeah, can you take the head? Of course, I'm always going to defer to bigger and athletic guys. But just like Lindsay brought up, it's almost that Wayne Gretzky ability if he can absorb a hit. He knows how he drops it and then drops down to his legs. I mean, like drops down to his butt so he avoids shots after he throws the ball.

He runs out of bounds. He's a smart runner. So it's like, okay, you're getting them right here in his prime. Maybe as he gets older, yeah, that stuff will add up. But so far, there's nothing that concerns me in that sense. And I just think he just does all the traditional QB things. Well, it's kind of funny. I don't know what his perfect type of offense would be. I really don't. But I think he is a guy.

That's what's fun is that I could see him in so many different ways as opposed to maybe a guy like Lamar where you're like only like one or two things I could see him doing well at, but it's going to be awesome. But that's the thing. We've seen it. We've seen it with Lamar. It requires no imagination with Lamar. October MVP candidate,

Kyler Murray. No, no. Hold on. I talk a lot. I didn't talk a lot of people off the ledge then. So what's hurry back? No, I've seen it with Lama. I've seen what Kyler.

It's just as a whole season goes on, then some of that just drops back down. And yeah, no, I get what you're saying about the Lamar. Here's what I mean, is that we've seen Lamar be dropped in a situation. It's the most efficient offense in the NFL.

There's no, there's no imagination necessary to understand exactly how valuable Lamar Jackson can be. With Kyler, it's like, what if he was in better circumstances? You have to project the circumstances. With Lamar, we've already seen it.

And that's why there's that little gap to me. And maybe that's a failure of my own imagination. In that with Lamar, it's like, oh, I'm going to bet on it because I know what it looks like when it's going well. With Kyler, you have to bet on the traits. There isn't this established way to do it right. And I think that's the tiny gap between them. And that's, again, that's a failure of my own.

I think that you probably should be able to project Kyler into that sort of situation. But we don't know exactly what it looks like. Where with Lamar, there's no mystery. We've already seen it in practice. All right. Nate, you're up again. 11th overall pick, just outside of the top 10. Speaking out, betting out traits and having to project,

and it seems fitting that it's pick 11 that I'm doing this at. But with pick 11, Nate's ICE is selecting Justin Fields. Justin Fields, I got my first rookie contract guy. I've been very expensive so far. So let's get some space on this quarterback heavy team. That's a bummer. I was really hoping to get him at 15. I did not think that he would go to the side.

Oh, oh, no. Well, I mean, all the arguments you guys brought up with the rookie contracts, yes, we have to project with this guy. I mean, how much more can me and Robert talk about him and Lindsay coming on? Like, it's, I, when I was breaking these guys down, anyone's listening to this pod. It's just, I mean, he's my, he was my number two guy. I mean, I consider him closer to Lawrence than I did the other guys. And I really like Trey Lance and, you know, Zach Wilson and Mack Jones are fun too.

It's just that I do think Fields is that type of guy. And I, if I were to bet on another rookie other than Lawrence, this would be the guy I would. And I think he can be that. And right here, you get him on rookie contract. Right here, I'm hitching my belt to him somehow, somehow, some way, because I'm not a bear. You know, this is my way I can get a piece of Justin Fields. So I'm going to do it in our, uh, in our first QB draft.

I totally understand this. I would have wanted him at some point in this draft. I think, again, it's just the mystery. And it's the same. It's the Trevor Lawrence conversation, just a little bit different. It's a little bit diminished because he's not that. type of prospect, but he's a pretty damn good prospect. So you're really betting on something you've never seen, and that's occasionally scary.

But if you can hit him and it's on that contract, I completely understand. Speaking of rookie contracts, I'm going with Joe Burrow at 12. I just think that, again, it would talk about comfort under pressure, the ability to navigate the pocket, all the things that made him the number one overall pick when he was at LSU. We saw that last season. And there are absolutely limitations to his game. The deep ball stuff is concerning.

He completed 19.6% of his deep passes last season. It was the second lowest rate in the league after Dwayne Haskins. And there are real reasons to think he's not going to be a lot better down the field over the course of his career because his arm strength is a problem. But I also think that team lacked receiving talent in a pronounced way and the offensive line was objectively bad. Hopefully with just a couple of capabilities. starters up front for them this year.

The protection will be better and we'll see what happens with Jamar Chase. But if the number one knock on the guy is arm strength, I can live with that. I just think every other aspect of his game is so advanced already. And it probably should be because he's like 28 years old or whatever he is. He's 24. But he is an old second year quarterback. But I still think that all of those nuances to the way he plays the position, even coming off the ACL, even with some of the arm strength concerns, I'm willing to bet on that.

because it's twice as many cheap seasons as you get out of a guy like Baker Mayfield. Baker is 10.6 this year, 18.9 and 22. Joe is 8.2 in 2021, 9.9, 11.5, and then the fifth year option. So you literally get twice as many years. And that's the tipping point for me. I'm totally fine making that bad. I think he could look really, really good this year in those circumstances with that help if he comes back healthy.

And you are going to make sure that you don't, David, car him like the bank oh yeah oh my god i would i would have i would have picked sull every single time if i was in the bengal situation i would pick sue every single time i picked diami brown in the second round and i go about my business i no i agree with your points though though robert is just that okay maybe his ceiling isn't as high as a lot of other guys we talk about younger guys but it's like he's gonna get he's he's a fine quarterback man like he he he does a lot of the little shit really really well. That is a high IQ guy who actually is a big athletic dude. It's just that he has a popcorn arm. It's fine though because he throws it on time and he knows what he is. That is the big

thing. He doesn't think he throws that and he's like, oh, I'm going to squeeze this in here. He knows I have a softer arm. Oh, I have to check it down. Or 100%. I have to get this throw off quick. Oh, I have to create. You know, if I'm, if I'm an empty and stuff like that, that is, he knows what he is. And that's why I think he's just going to be, he's going to be a good, solid guy for a while for a long time. I really do think that. Yeah, his ceiling might not be that crazy, crazy ceiling of some of these other guys. But fine player, man. I like the spot right here, too.

I mean, I am circled for my next pick. And if the floor is high and you know what you're getting, you're getting a capable quarterback, the fact that he's cheap for twice as long as some of these other guys, you can help him. Correct. If I have a baseline level of quarterback play and I know it's cheap for the next four years, I can put guys around him. And I think that's the argument here. Even if the ceiling's a little bit lower, the floor is so high plus the price tag that I think I can still build a pretty competitive team if he's the guy that's playing quarterback for me.

All right. Lindsay, 13th pick here. Who you got? Okay. So I'm really tempted to take Tom Brady and I'm serious. I totally understand it. I consider him at 12. I don't hate it.

So it's like the thought experience. We're saying we're doing this decision and we have to live with it for five years. could we get three more awesome years out of Tom Brady and two like, oh, he's just kind of hanging on. And that would be worth it here, the last pick. I am not. After last year. He might win two more Super Bowls. After last year, I am not going to be the guy.

I'm not going to be the guy. I'm taking him. I'm doing it. I can't. I can't not. I'm just, it's insane. I don't want to think about a guy that I'm taking who could be on this list playing at age 47. That's bonkers.

But. But. But let's think about it this way, okay? Let's say it's only three more years. Let's say it's only two more years that he plays. Yeah, let's say two. If it's at the level he played at last year, and then you have to figure it out over the next three years,

I still think that distribution of outcomes may be better than it would be with any of the other guys you'd pick at this point. Would you rather have five years of Baker Mayfield, three of them on an extension, or two years of Tom Brady, and I got to pick his successor over the next. three. I think the second option is pretty good. I understand coming down there. I'm kind of averaging this out and it might be cheating the experiment because we're talking about building around

four or five years. But I am not going to rule out that he is not going to be playing at at least a top 15 quarterback level in 2026. I'm not, I'm not going to rule that out. Right. And I don't think he's going to rule that out. So I'm, I'm going Tom Brady. Lindsay the agent I love it I totally understand it you're not going to get any pushback here I get it I mean I wouldn't have done it two rounds ago

but I'll take him here All right Nate 14th you're on the board You're on the clock Now I'm torn Okay because I really I already got my rookie contract guy So like right here I was really actually looking at

Trey Lance too because I thought Fields would be gone Wow I know And then I just go like real young Big bets here Well I'm going real torn now. And I'm going to just go back to what original note was. I'm going with Matt Ryan. And I'm taking, I'm taking Matt Ryan, even with that monstrosity of a contract. He turned 36 yesterday, by the way. So happy birthday, Matt. But, but a big old whopping contract that goes for two more seasons after this one. You can redo it. Yada, yada, yada. And this hypothetical. You cannot redo it in this hypothetical. You have to do it at these prices. I would have a great cap guy. No, okay. Okay. So I have those prices. But I, I, think he's still playing winning football. Again, I rewatched a lot of these guys because I was like,

okay, I don't watch a ton of Falcons last year. I'll admit it, especially towards the end of the year. But none of that passing ability has really gone away. He didn't win with arm strength. Now he's still throwing those intermediate throws. He's thrown those timing throws. I still get my guy. I still think he's going to age well. I think we're making that same experiment with Brady. Brady's a different tier. And maybe it's two or three years. I think you get three at at least three with Ryan, probably four or five with him, though. And that's why I'm looking at him. If I didn't have Justin Fields, I would have gone Tray Lance here, but I got a little, I got my, my rookie guy already.

So I'm set there. But I'm going with Matt Ryan. I just am not willing to bet on the rookies as much as you guys are. I got to see it for at least a year before I'm willing to do this. I don't talk. I just took 800 year old Tom Brady to balance. Trevor Lawrence. And it's arguing he's playing until 2040.

I would have gone. I would have been fine with Justin Fields at any point because I've already emotionally committed to the idea of him going to the Fame, so we're in. There's no going back now. With some of these other guys, there's more of a question. Nate, I get it with Matt Ryan. The only thing for me is if we're doing 36 through 40 here, plus the contract, plus the contract. He has the biggest cap hit in the league next year.

It's $48.7 million. All these things. These are all my notes. And it was just me trying to talk myself out of it. And I still went with him. But at this stage, I can understand it. I can understand it at this stage. He was right here on my big board right in the.

this range. But the contract is the one thing. It's 43.6 in 2023. It's third behind Mahomes and Dak. So you're paying a lot for a guy who's cruising

toward 40. And again, at this stage of the draft, I get it, but that's what would have scared me off a little bit. I have the final pick. I really wanted Justin Fields to be here because I really wanted him

on my fake team that we're never going to think about again after today. But it was important to me in the moment. I'm going to Baker Mayfield. I think that still two years of relatively cheap deal, 10.6 this year, 18.9 next year. I understand the qualifiers needed to discuss what Baker Mayfield was last year. 6.4 yards per attempt without play action last season.

That was the 28th highest mark in the league tied with Daniel Jones and Ben Rathesberger. Not great company. But if you build the right system around him, we've seen him pilot a top 10 offense. The Browns were a top 10 unit last year as a passing offense. with the right help. And sometimes that's enough. Even if he's not the most talented guy in this group, even if on his own,

independent of the circumstances, you'd rather take some guys in front of him, you can still build a top ten offense with this guy, and I'm getting him 15th. And that's okay for me. And I think the similar argument with Ryan Tannahill, like Ryan Tannahill will be another guy I'd consider here, but Ryan Tannhill's cheap years are done.

You're already paying the sticker price for Ryan Tannahill at more than $30 million a year for the next couple of years. You're paying the sticker price with Ryan Tannohm. It's more than $30 million a year for the next three years. And we've seen him pilot the most efficient passing offense in the league. But I just think the discount you can get Baker at, I'm fine with that. The other guys I think you could consider here, Derek Carr, we don't know what his contract is going to look like.

I assume it's going to be more than $30 million a year for the next few years. I would have been fine with him here. You know, Kirk Cousins is probably somebody you think about in this range. But I just think the two more relatively cheap years with Baker, that's the tiebreaker for me. Nate, what do you think about that? No, I agree with that. I mean, well, it's just scary because I just remember the Jared Gough stuff.

It's like, you know, like kind of like what, like what the new deal, obviously you're going to have to pay it because you're talking yourself into him being the franchise guy, not talking yourself into it, but that's what you're anointing him as. Is he worth what that contract's going to be? But we have talked about already for the last hour is how the cap's going to go up. So that becomes a lot more tolerable than that would be my main concern with him. I think he's more in that, you know, that above average tier, like, you know, the car, the cousins tier in that sense. And so it's kind of eye the beholder. It's what you want to do as your team because I just don't think he's squintproof all the way where it's just like whatever I plop around him, he's going to be fine. I think it's more like, yeah, he's going to be good with a lot of good pieces around him.

And he's probably average without that or slightly above average. And I also just, yeah, I think that's, he is what he is at this point. I just don't, it's just very scary for me to pay that a lot of money. which I think he's potentially going to get just because you kind of sometimes get back, you know, put yourself in a corner with some of these guys that you know he's a franchise guy. The other guys I consider in this range along with Baker was Carr. I also had also the rookies was Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. That was kind of my next and then cousins would have been in there as well.

But I probably would have gone for youth. But yeah. What about Ryan Tannenhill? I think he's just too old. 32, which I can't, I can't believe that Matthew Stafford is only 33 and I can't believe that Tannahill is 32. Like I put three exclamation points next to it. Tana Hill just has his limitations.

We kind of know what those guys are at those point. You know, Baker at least has some room for growth. I think quarterbacks, they peak, you know, almost like pitchers do or any athlete really in their late 20s and early 30s.

So Tana Hill is what he is. He's big. He's athletic and throw certain throws really well. But, you know, that's it. And I always think Baker can do some more of the quarterback things a little bit too. And that's,

to me, that's the biggest thing. I went back and I watched the last three games from his 2020 season today just to see some of the dropback stuff and how he looked operating out of the gun, non-play action. And I just think he looked better by the end of the year.

I think he looked more comfortable. I think he's still growing. I think it was year one of that offense. The coaching was a disaster during his first couple years in the league. And I just think his first go around with a real NFL staff that's developing him as a quarterback,

I think there was real growth between the beginning and the end of the season. And I'm just betting on that. I know that the extension is going to be scary and the same way it's going to be scary for the Browns. But if we're getting two cheap years and then three years after you have to pay them, I just think that bet is worth making. When you look at all the other guys on this list outside of the rookies,

they've already gotten paid. There's no more cheap years left for anybody else that you'd consider it at this spot. Yeah. All right. We got our squads. That's all we got. I would say that we should let people judge them and pick a winner, but that's unfair because of the format of the draft.

Robert did get screwed. That's okay. We're still going to throw them out there. It's fine. Nate picked everybody I wanted one pick before I was going to do it. And that's great. It's totally fine. So we are going to put these online.

We are going to let people comment on them. We're going to put the whole draft board online and the order. So everyone will get to yell at us about how stupid we were without listening to the podcast and hearing the reasoning. I took a 40, almost 43 year old quarterback for a building of five-year plan. It's fine. Don't worry. I took DAC and I was like almost, I thought the conversation. was going to add right away.

I was like, all right, here we go. Like I got notes ready. Here's what I can say with certainty. We will regret none of the things that we said on this podcast. Ever. None of it will ever come back to bite us. We are out of here, scot-free. It's cool.

It hasn't been recorded. No. No. Guess what? Guess what the best part of this is? Next week we get to do this with the non-quarterbacks. Yeah. So that's going to be, that's the best part is we get to do this whole thing

again next week. The original plan was to just do a whole draft of players, but it was going to be so quarterback heavy at the top that I just decided it was best to split it up. And it would be six hours long. Yeah, exactly, exactly. So quarterbacks this week, we're going to do non-quarterbacks next week.

So excited to do that. Until then, though, please come back on Friday. The first edition of the off-season interview series is on Friday. Lions GM, Brad Holmes. We had a great conversation to him and I. Please come back and check that out. Really excited about all the names we have coming on over the next couple weeks.

We've got a ton of other big names coming on over the next couple months. So please come back and check that out. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I sincerely appreciate that. Also, please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. We have tons of great stuff coming throughout the entire off season. It's a great time to sign up.

so please do that. You're missing out if you don't. We'll be back on Friday with Brad Holmes. Until then, thank you guys for listening. We'll talk to you later. This was the Athletic Football Show.