The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - MVP favorites, Washington is Stayin' Alive, rebooting the Steelers & more with Lindsay Jones & Mark Kaboly

Episode Date: December 2, 2021

Lindsay Jones and Steelers writer Mark Kaboly of the Athletic are this week's guests as Robert and Lindsay discuss their current picks for MVP and discuss candidate odds of Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Jonathan Taylor, Dak Prescott and more before discussing the Washington Football Team's refusal to exit the playoff conversation, the most intriguing games this weekend and more + Kaboly joins the show for an extended convo on the current state of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger, the draft and all the chaos that Steelers fans are currently experiencing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Thursday, December 2nd. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. Mark Cabley, one of our Steelers writers at The Athletic. It's going to be joining us a little bit later to do a Steelers team visit. Check in with a franchise that isn't kind of a weird place, man.

A place that I am not used to them being. We dug into the current Steelers, the future Steelers, all of that stuff with Mark. I really hope you guys enjoyed that conversation. Before we do that, though, very excited. to welcome my good friend, Lindsay Jones. Lindsay, how you doing? I am great. I was really excited to talk to Mark, who is playing hurt.

He is like the champion of our athletic NFL staff right now, which is another thing that we'll get into when we talk to him in a little bit. God, the perils of this job that you just never think about, which I appreciated him power and through. It was a good chat. All right. Here's what we're going to start today. I want to talk about who the MVP of the NFL is because it seems like this year.

And I may be struck by recency bias here, and this may be true every year, but it feels particularly true this year. We are 12 weeks into the season. I have no idea who the MVP is. There's just so much going on there. I want to chew on all of it. I want to dig into this at length. We talked a couple weeks ago about I thought DAC might have a path to it.

It was our pump the break segment on the Sunday night show. But that was kind of speculative, and we didn't really talk about the other candidates in depth. So I just want to sit in this for a little bit. while and take stock of the MVP race as it exists about three quarters of the way through the season, two thirds of the way through the season. So when you're looking at the names right now, when you're looking at the odds right now, what jumps out to you? Like, who do you think should be in the driver's seat as things currently say? Well, that's what's crazy is that I don't think there's a clear frontrunner. And, you know, the, and we've talked about, I know we talked about

this a little bit last year when we, you know, discuss the MVP race and stuff. I think the things that you have to consider is one, it's, this is basically a quarterbacks award. It's very, very, very rare for a non-quarterback to win. I believe the last non-quarterback to win was Adrian Peterson back in the 2012 season. We haven't had a defensive player win MVP in decades. Defensive players rarely even get, you know, a vote here or there. So we have to remember this is. The one Bobby Wagner vote a few years ago. There was. And I will say I, so I do have a vote, an MVP vote again this season. It's been a few years since I've had one. I was a voter when I was at USA today. And I did vote for J.J. Watt several years ago. So I have voted for none. 2012 or 2014? I believe 2014. I don't

think I had a vote in 2012. But in 2014, I believe I voted for J.J. Watt. And I remember I was panicked when I sent it in because I didn't want to be the one Bobby Wagner vote. And then he ended up getting seven or eight votes. So I had company there that I wasn't the only one who voted for him. So I will consider. I do not look at this as like the best quarterback on the best team award. But that is a lot of times how that happens. And that's what makes this really tricky is that there is no clear best team right now. And there is no clear best quarterback. That is the complicated factor here, right? Usually by this point in the season, even if the MVP race is murky, we have a best team or a best couple teams. This year, that wrench has been thrown into this because

we don't. Yeah. Or you'll have a quarterback who, was on some sort of historic pace or is just, you know, overperforming expectations or is doing something historical. It was the Lamar Jackson breakout season in 2019. It was the Patrick Mahomes, you know, rewriting all of the offensive record books the season before that, where, you know, you see somebody who's doing something historic. So I think what, you know, what I'm handicapping the MVP race right now, I almost want to throw out all of it. Like everything that has happened over the first two-thirds of the season is kind of just setting the stage for these last six weeks because we're going to have a couple good teams that will probably emerge from here. I mean,

Patrick Mahomes was not even anywhere on like the MVP radar this season. But I think it's very possible that he'll be the best quarterback over the last half of the season or the last third of the season and he'll be right back in that mix. So, you know, I think if you look at the narrative part of it, you know, voters want, you know, sometimes it's like the new exciting, shiny thing. That's the Lamar Jackson, the Patrick Mahomes. Sometimes it's the, you know, the career achievement kind of award where, you know, we were talking about Drew Brees being in this conversation a couple of years ago, a guy who hadn't won it. Could Tom Brady get into that mix right now where a guy who, you know, you have to consider, well, maybe it's not

the best number of numbers of his career, although he's going to be in that mix. I mean, I think he's, he's fallen slightly off pace, but he's going to be in that around 50 touchdowns for the season, even if he's 17 games as opposed to 16, and I don't think he's ever thrown quite that many. So, you know, and then you consider his age and all of that stuff, and maybe he gets a little bit of a bump. So it's basically going to be where, what's this Venn diagram of statistics and storyline narrative? And whoever has the most overlap is who ultimately is going to win the MVP. If I had to like throw a dart right now and think, and guess who it's going to be, I think it might be Tom Brady. because I think by the time we get to the second week of January and the voting is going to be later this year,

I think it might be him, but God, I don't know. I mean, it's so murky, murkier than I can ever remember it being. Before we talk about this, I want to talk about JJ Watt in 2012 real quick, because this is one of my longstanding sports takes, and I truly believe he should have won the MVP that year. I'm looking at some of the numbers associated with JJ Watt in 2012. In 2012, JJ Watt led the league with 20 and a half sacks. That's pretty good on itself. That's insane.

He had 43 quarterback hits, 10 more than any other player in the NFL. He had 39 tackles for loss, which was 11 more than any other player in the NFL. He ranked 13th in passes defense that year as a defensive lineman. He had 16 of them. He absolutely, in my opinion, if Adrian Peterson was going to win the MVP that year, then JJ Watt should have been the MVP that year. I stand by that. It's been something I've believed for a decade now.

And I just wanted to get that off my chest while we were talking about JJ Watt MVP. So I was not a voter in 2012. That was my first year at USA today. I did end up getting a vote a couple years later. And I think a little bit of my like J.J. Watt in 2014 vote was left over from what happened in totally fair where I still think he deserved it in 2014 that was an Aaron Rogers MVP year um but yeah I mean I did a lot of reporting that season about why a defensive player and never won and it's tough this year where there isn't a clear quarterback who's pulling away from the field there also isn't

that historic defensive type of season you know Miles Garrett is you know really is like a strong defensive player the year candidate but I don't think you could make a really strong strong argument that he's the most valuable player of the league, the type of argument that you maybe could have made about Aaron Donald in recent seasons. So it's going to make it really, really interesting where, you know, this is a, I would say the one other thing about MVP voting, which you always have to remember is that it's 50 voters, one vote each. It's not Heisman trophy style where you get to vote for a second, third. You get to pick one player. You can't split your vote, although people try. People will do it from time to time. Peter King, our good friend,

Meeter King, he likes to try to split his MVP votes a lot. But you get one player, you get one voter, one vote, which makes it really tough. And I'm going to be sweating it out until January 10th or whatever it is that our ballots are due. The Texans finished 12 and 4 in 2012. They finished second in defensive DVOA. If a defensive player was going to win the MVP, it would have happened in 2012 with JJ Watt when there was no clear-k her quarterback. I think that the reason that a quarterback will always win this award from now on, for multiple reasons. The league is changed. I think the 2011 is a really good pivot point for just the way that we consider passing in the NFL. I'll talk about that 2011 season here in a second, but that was the year where everything

just went nuts, right? That was, the Patriots were incredible that season. It was one of the best offense in NFL history. Rogers went nuts, breeze through for 5,000 yards. That was a monster Matthew Stafford year. From that year on, like the passing boom took hold in the NFL. I think that we understand that now. The game and just the discourse around the game is also a lot smarter and more analytically forward than it was a decade ago. And I feel like that bleeding into this discussion is always going to trend more toward quarterbacks. What you would have to do as a position player to do it, I think is almost impossible now.

And it's different than it was in 2012 when Adrian Peterson did it. Just the way we think about the game, the way we contextualize the game, all of that stuff. So digging into this year's race, right now, Tom Brady is the betting favor to win. He's plus 275 on bed MGM. It makes sense for a lot of different reasons. There isn't a clear-cut best candidate. He's not the most exciting one in the world. But if you look at it, he checks the boxes, right?

The bucks are probably, and the bucks are going to win the NFC South. The bucks probably have a chance to be the number one seed in the NFC. He is seventh in EPA per play among quarterbacks, very high. The bucks are first in passing and offensive DVOA. So he checks the boxes with the advance metrics. You look at the standard stats, just the counting stats. He is on pace to throw for almost 5,000 yards and 44 touchdowns over a 16 game span. I don't know how we're going to treat the 17th game when it comes to numbers.

In my mind right now, I'm just doing it over 16 games. Like the pace that they do on, just so we understand it, right? Just so we can contextualize it compared to other seasons. So if you look at NFL history, only four guys ever have thrown for 5,000 yards, and 44 touchdowns in the season. Three of them won MVP. The only one that didn't was Drew Breeze in 2011, and because that year, Rogers threw 44 touchdowns and whatever.

So Rogers and Breeze were right there that season. Only nine seasons of 44 touchdowns have ever happened. Seven of those guys won the MVP. Breeze did not in 2011 when Rogers did. And then in 1986, Lawrence Taylor won the MVP over Dan Marino, even though he threw for all of those. yards and all those touchdowns because Lawrence Taylor had 20 and a half sacks. And again, the game was different back to when the way we talked about the game was different back

back then. So Tom Brady, if he hits these numbers, those are historic numbers. They are MVP level numbers. So if he has the best counting stats, if he has the advanced numbers that you want to see, if the bucks win all these games, then it would make sense for Tom Brady to be the MVP. I think that's why in a crowded field, why he's the heavy betting favorite right now at this moment. And I think when you look at the other quarterbacks, which we're going to get into some of these guys, it's a lot harder to make the case for Josh Allen because of the bad games that the bills have had. The most inconsistent team in the league by football outsider's metrics. Like not an exaggeration. Yeah. And just and recently, as of just a couple weeks ago, he was actually the

betting favorite for MVP once, you know, Kyler Murray wasn't playing games anymore. Kyler is a really interesting case. Let's get into it. So let's get into Kyler. So let's get into Kyler, right? Because he's missed a couple games. He should be back this week. The Cardinals are coming off of their by week. But to win the MVP, you typically need to play just about the entire season. I mean, it's exceedingly rare for a guy who missed a chunk of time to have serious consideration. And he's missed a chunk of time. I don't think anyone has ever won it in the modern era missing more than two games. I believe Steve McNair missed two games in 2004. And that would have been played 14 games and still won it.

So it would be unprecedented. But it's this season and the field and how weird it is. I don't know. I don't know. You know, and so Kyler kind of fits that mold of like the breakthrough season of, you know, doing something that he's never done before carrying his team in a way that the team has never ascended to that level before. So if they're able to kind of go on this run, get the number one seed in the NFC,

if he's able to continue scoring bonkers, numbers of touchdowns with his legs and this deep passing game that they have, maybe he can get back in that mix. We just haven't seen the Cardinals sustain over the second half of the season at any point during the Cliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray era. So he's a lot more of a, he's a lot more difficult case for me, but it's going to be really interesting to watch. You know, we need to see how healthy is, right? I mean, he was close to playing in week 11, but he was ruled out and then they had a buy. He should be back. But let's see, is he still dealing with some lingering effects of that ankle? Is he able to kind of keep up this pace?

So I don't know. I think he's going to have to go on like a really big run, though, to catch up to some of these other guys in the second half of the season. If the Cardinals go like 13 and 4 and they have the number one seat in the NFC and he plays as well over these final six games, as he did over his first eight games. I absolutely think he's going to have an argument. Because if you look at it, he still is number one in the league in EPA completion percentage over expectation composite, which is a stat that Ben Baldwin does if you want to look it up that I really like.

So it's completion percentage over expectation and EPA per drop back. It's kind of all mushed into one. And that gives you a good idea of where guys sit with advanced stats. Kyle are still number one in the week. So he checks that box. He's leading the league by far in your right. yards per attempt at 8.9. This is an offense that's near the top of the

top of the week. So his efficiency numbers are clearly there. And I think that we've lost some of the Kyler juice when it comes to the anecdotal stuff because we haven't seen them play. We haven't seen them play in three weeks. So that excitement and those moments you need and that narrative

momentum and headwind that is necessary to win it has died down. But because no one else has really grabbed that mantle, if he does it over the next month and builds that back up again. And the Cardiners are still winning. And again, he's checking the statistical boxes. I don't think it's out of the question. There's a reason he's only eight to one right now to win it despite missing the last three games. It's because the path for

him to get it is absolutely there. And I don't want this to be like one of those Heisman trophy arguments where, you know, Pac-12 guys have a lot harder time winning the Heisman because people don't see their games as much. People haven't seen Cardinals games as much. But they have a Monday night football game against the Rams. They also have a Sunday night football game against the Colts. It's a primetime game actually on Christmas night. So you're going to be all like stuffed and happy and lay on the couch and watch the Cardinals. So if he can have those kind of big, you know, big game in those bigger moments, hopefully all the, you know, the 49 other voters are watching all of the games that aren't just, you know, picking off their votes based on Sports Center highlights. I want to give everybody enough credit there. But there might be a little bit of that too, where you talk about Tom Brady all the time and you see Tom Brady all the time. And the national conversation around Kyler Murray just hasn't quite been there as much because of who the Cardinals are and the platform that the Cardinals have had. But if they keep winning, they could get flexed into other games later on this season. You know, they have a January 2nd game against the Cowboys.

Like, you don't think Sunday night. That's huge. That's huge. Cowboys Cardinals game on January 2nd. And if you look at it, so Josh Allen's at plus 450 right now. And I think it's going to be if the bills don't win that division and the bills have kind of fallen off just as his juggernaut of a team, that's why I picked Josh Allen before the season. Even if you expected some natural regression, which is exactly what has happened, right? Josh Allen's still good.

He's still a much better quarterback than he was in 2019. The improvements are obvious. But they've regressed a little bit. Teams have essentially told them, we're not going to let you tear us up the way you did in the past. We're not going to play all this man coverage. We're going to make you beat us down in and down out. And they've fallen back to earth a little bit. It's natural.

But I just thought that they'd be so good and that they would be the best team in the AFC. And that's why he would be a natural candidate to win it. And that looked to be the case, right? It looked like the bills were going to be the best team in the AFC. Now, we're going to talk about this game in a second. You know, they're a half game behind the Patriots. They lose to New England on Monday.

And the Patriots kind of grab a stranglehold of that division. then the narrative waters start getting a little cloudier when it comes to Josh Allen. So I think that Kyler absolutely has a shot. DAC has fallen off over the last couple weeks if they can kind of regain that. There's a reason that I thought he had the best path forward, but it's been a rough stretch since I made that declaration. Matthew Stafford, same kind of deal, right? The Rams' offenses looked awful with the last couple weeks.

So after that is when you have the drop-off. So Jonathan Taylor is at 18 to 1. I just don't think that's going to happen, right? I think that there are too many factors involved with the running game. I think we understand that. He could get a couple votes. Yeah, I think he probably will, but they have one of the best offensive lines in the league. You have to have a historic season to do that.

He has 1,200 rushing yards. I think he has like 250 more than any other running back in the NFL right now. I just don't think it's going to happen. I don't think it's going to get there. After that is when there's a drop off. So Jonathan Taylor is at 18 to 1. The next closest is Joe Burrow at 40 to 1. if I were looking at the long shots,

Burrow is my favorite. Because 40 to 1, and if you look at him and Justin Herber right now, who is at 16 to 1, why is that such a gap? Like if the Bengals beat the Chargers this week, and they kind of take that spot in the AFC where it looks like they're clearly going to make the playoffs,

even if they win the AFC North with Baltimore kind of faltering a little bit, 40 to 1 is pretty long odds for a team that is a half game out from having the best record. in the AFC right now. So among all the long shots, that's my favorite. But there's a reason that it's a tough path for Joe Burrow to pull that off.

Yeah, I mean, I would say my favorite of the long shots is Derek Carr, who is a little bit behind Burrow at plus 5,000 right now just because I think statistically he can lead the league of passing. Carr would get that. Like he would get some of those flashy numbers. And look, if the Raiders are right in that mix, I think it's still kind of a long road for them to get to winning the division. And it's really hard to imagine a quarterback who didn't even lead his team to a division championship winning the MVP outside of some sort of historic season, you know, 55 touchdowns plus 5,000 yards, like something that they're rewriting record books.

That's where I think it gets a little harder with some of these guys. But I would of this list, I mean, the other guys in that kind of ballpark, or I guess even lower than that. It's Carson Wentz. It's Kirk Cousins. And then you start getting to some of the other non-quarterbacks, Cooper Cup, Devante Adams. James Connor, you know, who's in double-digit touchdowns right now for the Cardinals. So it's really hard to find one of those other guys. So if you had a vote today, who would your vote today here on December 2nd be?

Tom Brady. I mean, which is not that exciting and it's not that fun, but that's, I just think that's the answer. A name that we have not mentioned at all here, not one time, even though he has the third best betting odds on BetMGM right now, is there at Rogers? Do you think it's even possible for him to win it this year? Or do you think that the narrative aspect of it is just completely out the window? No, I mean, look, and as a voter here, if, if let's say he throws four touchdowns a game for the next six weeks, leads the Packers to the number one seed, these other guys that we're talking about fall off, I'm not going to take, you know, I will not hold the COVID vaccination immunization. What about the foot press conference?

Will you hold that against him? I might hold that against him because I'm afraid of what he would do at the NFL honors if he would like come up there in some toe shoes or something. So I would say, look, if he, if statistically, if he gets there by the middle of January and he is by far the best quarterback by the end of the season and the Packers are the best team, I think, I think he'll have a case. But I think the thing narratively that works against him is the reluctance to have the same winner back to back years. Yeah. That you're kind of always held to the, you know, were you? he was good as you were last year. You got to blow it out of the water to do that.

So I think the thing that he'll need to do is one, he'll need to get the Packers to the number one seed. He'll have to increase his passing numbers and his passing touchdowns over the next couple weeks and the rest of these guys are going to have to fall off or there's going to have to be no better story or narrative line from one of these other players. All right. We're going to keep an eye on this because it's going to be up and down. It's going to be back and forth for the next couple months here.

because that's how this season has been and there's no reason for that to change at this point. Ah, ah, ah, stay in alive, staying alive. We're going to do a new segment today. We're going to do this every week over the next several weeks pretty much until the end of the season. As a way to dig through this very confusing year, if you look at the NFL standings right now on December 1st,

okay, 25 teams have at least five wins. 21 teams on 538 have at least a 19% chance to make the playoffs. 21 teams have a 1 in 5 chance to make the postseason. So with that in mind, we're going to go through one or two of those teams every single week in a segment we're calling staying alive. Because there are so many teams that are mathematically staying alive in the playoff race right now that I think checking in with one of them every single week is worthwhile. And I want to start with the Washington football team.

An organization that seemed dead in the water a month ago that seemed like the biggest disappointment in the entire NFL is now 5 and 6. Owens the 7 seed in the NFC if things were to, if we were to hit the playoffs today, and has a 33% chance according to 538 to make the postseason. I don't know if any team is more emblematic of what has happened this year in the, league and how crazy it is than the Washington football team right now. So let's just talk about how they got here. What over the last month or so, as they've stacked these wins together, has jumped out to you about this version of the Washington football team and what they look like in this moment?

They're not getting consistently good quarterback play, but they're getting good enough quarterback play. And it seems like every game, they're able to put together one of these really long drives, you know, clutch drives, you know, the Taylor-Henough. Heineke thing is working well enough. But their defense is coming around. And if this team was going to be a playoff contender this year, we thought it was going to be because of their defense, particularly with their front seven.

And the thing that I think is just so odd is that this defensive turnaround and this three game winning streak began the same game that they lost Chase Young for the season. So that doesn't make sense to me that you can lose your best player and all of the sudden your defense, it clicks and it starts, you know, things start working. Why do you think that is? Is there any sort of reason that you can come up with for why they've actually played better since Chase Young has been out? I think that they've settled in on the back end. I think that that's been the most important thing that they've managed to do. If you look at it, I think they've figured out the way they want to use those bodies. Starting in, I believe, week six, is when

Landon Collins' role kind of shifted a little bit. Huge drop-off in the number of snaps he was playing a true deep safety. And they're playing those three safety looks now with him, Cam Curl on Bobby McCain, and you have Collins playing way more in the box and has a slot corner every once in a while. And I think that's kind of let the back end settle and kind of settle down and just fit a little bit better. Their corners are playing a lot better. I think there was a lot of confusion early in the season. So I think the improvements in the back seven has been the most important part of this.

They still have good players up front. Even with Montez Sweat and Chase Young injured, Jonathan Allen is arguably the best interior pass rusher in the league right now. He's been really good. He's been incredible. He was really good on Monday night against Seattle. You still have him and Ionitis. I mean, they still have good players there. So I think that really kind of figuring out how they wanted to assemble those guys in the back end of their defense has been really good.

I mean, but if you look at it, over the last month, they're 22nd in EPA for, for play on defense, which is better than they were, but still not great. They're third on offense. And that, to me, is the most surprising part of this. You're doing this with Taylor Heineke. And I thought that the Monday night crew did a really good job during that game. There was a play late in the game where he had his eyes down field, nothing was there, brings it back, checks it down to, I believe McCisicker, Antonio Gibson, short little modest eight-yard gain, live to play another down. And I saw that, and I was like, there it is.

I was like, really nice. And then Lewis Riddick said the exact same thing. And it was just kind of this play that showed that he's not trying to do it all every single down, right? He's not trying to prove that he deserves to be a starting quarterback in the league with every single throw. He's not living and dying with every single drop back. And I think that's a really good thing because I think Scott Turner is a good offensive coordinator. I think some of the things that they've done on offense are really smart, really creatively the way they spread things out. Terry McCorn is a really nice receiver and just asking Teller Heineke not to do too much.

It's like, all right, we're going to give you this a chance here. All we need you to do is keep the train on the tracks. And his doing that over the last month or so has really paid dividends for them. I think that is the biggest part of this is that if they can kind of get off the Heineke coaster and have it be a little bit more consistent on offense, I think that is their best path. I think that is their best path to kind of steal one of these spots. And they're getting a little healthier at some of their skill position spots. Curtis Samuel is now back.

I think he made his return against the Seahawks last week. Logan Thomas. Yep, Logan Thomas is healthy again. And he was pretty good against the Seahawks. I think he should have had that touchdown at the end. It would have saved us all from a lot of the theatrics that happened over the final two minutes of that game. I thought that was that was really, really close. But yeah, Logan Thomas is back.

And then you have Terry McLaren, who is. as good and exciting as any young receiver in the NFL right now. I know we talked a little bit about him, kind of in our group last week when we're doing our Thanksgiving. What are we thankful for? He was one of the young receivers that we were thankful for. So there is good talent there. I do wonder where if they get into this mix now where, you know, let's say they are a wildcard

team. Let's say they are the seventh seed in the NFC. What do you do next year at quarterback? Well, so that's the question, right? The one thing I wanted to say about their offense very quickly, they have been really hurt along the offensive line. The fact that they're on Keith Ishmael now and it's center number four, Brandon Scherf limped off last week.

You lost Sam Cosmy. He's on IR. So now you have Cornelius Lucas there. Their ability to kind of piece this thing together and still be able to run the ball is a testament to John Masco, their offensive line coach, and to Scott Turner and just the way they've been able to kind of cycle guys through in those spots, that's been really impressive to me. Because it is hard to sustain success.

of those sort of injuries to one position group and specifically one area of one position groups when it comes to the interior of the offensive line. So you look at it. One of the questions I want to ask with every single one of these teams, because it's always worth asking, do they want to make the playoffs? Is making the playoffs good for them? And with Washington, I think you could go both ways, right? Because after last season, you go, you spend all this money in free agency on William

Jackson, on Curtis, Samuel, whatever. you kind of have higher hopes. You go get Ryan Fitzpatrick. You think, all right, this year we could truly win the division. We could be a real playoff team rather than a consolation playoff team like they were last year. And if you look at the moves they wanted to make, they wanted Matthew Stafford. They wanted to make that push. They wanted to step into that tier of teams.

So in that way, them getting to the postseason is kind of making a little run and digging themselves out of that rut they were in early in the year. That is a good thing. That for organizational morale, for your plan, everything else, that is a good thing. But if they lose some games here, right, and they drop a couple, they play the Eagles twice, they play the Cowboys twice. How those Eagles games go may swing this. They beat the Eagles twice. Maybe they sneak in.

If they lose to the Eagles twice, maybe the Eagles sneak in. The Vikings have the best odds of all those teams right now at five and six because the Vikings are the best team of all those teams, which makes sense. So if you lose a couple and you end up. up seven and 11, you could be picking in the top 10 and you could be in a position to go get that quarterback. But if things go the other way, you make the playoffs, you win a playoff game, you're clearly on the upswing, maybe you're more attractive to one of those veteran quarterbacks. So I could understand wanting it to go either way because there's an argument for both cases here. Yeah, I think of those two options, I would swing towards the, I guess the second

side where you want to be more attractive to the veteran free agents, in large part because of what the draft class is looking like next year. I don't think there's any surefire guy. Washington is one of those teams where I think, obviously knowing what we know now about the way that Ryan Fitzpatrick was injured and wasn't a factor this year, I think they're going to be one of the teams that's going to really regret not taking a quarterback this year in this draft just based on who was available. But it's tough. And I was talking to Ben Standig, one of our Washington Beatwriters about this last week. And we're going to talk to Mark Caboli about this later because there's a lot of teams that are

going to be in this pool right now where they're trying to figure out what they're going to do about quarterback next year. And let's say there's only one or two of these guys that might be available by a trade or free agency and trying to dictate where they go. And an average Washington team with the way that organization has been run in the past. and it's not a super attractive destination. And I think people will like playing for Ron Rivera. I think there is some good young offensive talent like we just talked about.

So they need to make themselves attractive to these veteran guys. But it's just going to be tough for them because there's just, I'm just skeptical that once we get to March and we see who is legitimately available, I don't think it's going to be great. And their best option might be Taylor Heineke again next year. And that is, as well as he's been playing lately, I'm not sure if that's my favorite path forward for Washington. There are worst options, right? I mean, this is a team that I think is like 16th and a weighted offensive DVOA with Taylor Heineke. Like they can survive and they can live with Taylor Heineke.

He's playing well enough that another year of him and they signed him to a two-year deal, it's not a nightmare scenario even if you want to take a step forward as a franchise. And you feel like that's kind of a holding pattern. So it's going to be fascinating to watch. But I think that to me is the question we want to ask about all these teams. Is this good for you? Treat him like a friend. Are you sure this is good for you?

Do you really want to make the playoffs? Have you thought about this? Yeah. And I think, I mean, Washington, for that fan base, I mean, this is a team that has just not had sustained success in a really long time. And, you know, they've been trying to get their shit together from top to bottom of that organization. And it's been really hard with the way that ownership, the ownership situation.

that they have there. It's, I think, held them back to from making some of these leaps and being taken seriously in the league. And, you know, for their fan base, I'd love to see them kind of have something positive to cheer for. So yeah, I mean, I think you always, well, maybe not always, but in most cases, you'd rather make the playoffs than not make the playoffs. But this is a really tricky situation. I will say the other thing that has maybe gone right for them, their last two wins. Seattle is a disaster zone. I don't know how great that. win is. I mean, and they almost, they almost gave that one away. I mean, they were a onside kick or a penalty on an on side kick there from potentially losing that game. You know, the Panthers are clearly headed

in the wrong direction and that was a less than a one score game. So, you know, I don't think their wins have been super convincing. Beating the Bucks was nice. For some reason, they would match up really well against the Bucks. Yeah. But, you know, but preceding that was, you know, a four game losing streak. And this stretch coming up, they have to go to Las Vegas. That's going to be a really challenging game because the Raiders can score a lot of points. So I think that's going to be a really interesting matchup. And then if you said, the rest of the season is all division games, two against the Cowboys, two against the Eagles, and one more game against the Giants. But the fact that they haven't played the Cowboys yet, that's going to tell us a lot. And that first game is

week 14. So I want to end all of these with a question that we say with the phrase that we use all the time. We talk about this with potential playoff teams. You don't want to play them right now. So do you really not want to play Washington right now? Are you scared of Washington right now? And I think based on the tone of you describing those wins, you are not afraid of them right now if you're a potential playoff team in the NFC. No, no. I don't think I'm super scared unless I'm the Bucks. Because if I'm the Bucks, I'm looking, I'm like, hell no, I do not want that game. Because that's two in a row where, I mean, bucks skin of their teeth got by them in the playoffs last year. And then obviously They had a really difficult time with them a couple weeks ago.

So, but if you're the Bucks and you're the two seed and Washington grabs that seven seed, we're looking at it again. I know. But if you're the Packers or the Cowboys, we'll see it. You know, I want to see them play the Cowboys. But if you're one of these other teams, if you're the Cardinals, I'm not sure if I'm terrified of Washington right now. I agree. I don't think they're as scary as some of these other teams.

I think that if the two playoff teams, the two final playoff teams in the NFC were the Vikings and the Niners, I think they're definitely scarier than this Washington team right now. The one thing I hope, sorry, the one thing if we're talking about if it's Washington or Minnesota, Washington does seem to have that clutch thing. Taylor Heinecke has that where if it's a really close game, Minnesota does not. I think just the volatility of the Taylor Heineke coaster,

that would be the thing that scares me. It seems like anything is on the table with him at any moment, good or bad. And that would be the frightening point. part for me if I were the better team. It's like they're just going to come out swinging wildly and who knows what might happen there. So that would be the reason I'd be scared. But I do think that there are other teams in the NFC that I would be a little bit more wary of if the playoffs were to start today than Washington. All right. I'm excited to do those every week because what a weird

ass season. And I think this is a perfect way to dig into that a little bit. We have so many options. Oh, there's so many teams. That's the best part about this. All right. Let's get to our appointment viewing for week 13, what can you not wait to watch this Sunday or Monday? All right. I think we're on the same page here. And I'm glad you mentioned Monday because the game of the week is Monday night, the AFC East showdown between the Patriots and the Bills, a game that is going to have massive playoff implications for not just that division, but potentially for overall seating in the AFC.

Mac Jones versus Josh Allen, Bill Belichick against Josh Allen, probably even more. importantly. So I think that is by far the game of the week. And there's just so many like coaching matchups and individual matchups and Josh Allen on a massive stage, which you just, you talk about the Taylor Heineckee roller coaster. I mean, the Josh Allen roller coaster is probably even more dramatic than that. And so yeah, that's my game. I am super pumped that my daughter is Girl Scouts on Monday night because it gives me an hour and a half where actually you just get to sit down on the couch and watch a primetime game without somebody crawling all over me and trying to put on YouTube videos. So I am jacked up that this is the Monday night game

and we're going to get to kind of have this game isolated for all of us to watch their undivided attention. Yeah, it's, it's cool that this game matters the way that it does. Because think about how many Patriots Bills games in Buffalo over the last decade, we'll just walk over Patriots wins or the bills were out of it. And that crowd in a primetime game in that stadium with, the division lead on the line and you know them understanding that this was supposed to be their year and now the patriots are kind of reigning on that party in a way that we didn't necessarily anticipate like all of that just juiciness and just all of those little layers to the story here I think are fascinating the patriots defense this year the patriots don't give a shit about your

trends like the patriots do not care what your flavor of the week is when it's comes to offense and defense in the NFL, they're going to zig where other teams zag consistently. And the way that they play on defense, not afraid to live in single high, not afraid to play all this man coverage, these big kind of hulking linebackers in a world where linebackers are getting smaller, how does that contrast with teams playing a lot of shell coverage against the bills and kind of daring them to run the ball? I assume that Bill Belichick is going to have a counter punch. He always does. But I think that stylistically, it just, It makes for a really intriguing matchup, so I can't wait to watch that.

I mean, this game in a primetime slot with the stage all to itself, this is all you can ask for at the stage of the season. Well, and I think, you know, the Patriots defense has been so good. So good. They've allowed 26 total points in the last four games. Total. It's bonkers. You look at it. I expected their front seven to just kick ass this year, right?

And you've gotten that. Judon has been excellent. Christian Barmore has been such an impact guy right away. You know, they have that in the front seven. But then the way that they're back, their secondary has played, not only J.C. Jackson, but just what they've gotten out of Kyle Dugger and all the pieces they have back there. It's been fantastic.

And that is going to be an incredible game to watch. And I cannot wait to tune into it. I am sure that we will have more of the nitty gritty coming to you on tomorrow's podcast with Nate. Well, I'm just, I'm just really curious to see what Bill Belichick is going to do. Because if a lot of Josh Allen struggles this year have been, you know, when teams have been giving him challenges and coverage and daring him to do things, I mean, Bill Belichick is the king of confusing a quarterback. And I'm so excited to see what he's going to throw out.

And you said, counterpunch, does Josh Allen, does Brian Dable, do they have something else different? Because that's one of the most difficult parts of understanding what the bills have been doing this year is that they haven't seemed to have been able to have another answer to try to win a different way and do something when a defense zags, right? So, you know, I'm sure over these last couple weeks, Belichick has been working a couple weeks ahead and thinking about what are we going to do once we get to Buffalo. They've got their buy after this week, which is crazy that they haven't had their buy yet, a week 14 by for New England. But yeah, so I'm jacked up about this game,

and I'm looking forward to hearing you and Nate get really into the breakdown on Friday show. We absolutely will be doing that. All right. Let's get to our one at big, question heading into week 13. Why don't you kick us off here? All right. So I'm going to be predictable here. I want to know what the hell is going on in AFC West. And I want to see if this week is going to give us some clarity in my favorite division. Because, you know, when we talk about the parity in the NFL this year and the difficulty that we have making sense of the AFC in general or the NFL as a whole, the AFC West is really confusing. So already this season, the Chiefs have beaten the Raiders, who've beaten the Broncos, who've beaten the Chargers, who've beaten the Chiefs.

So we're completely in this circle where if you try to do the transit of property of who is the best team in the AFC West, it's going to make your head explode. I know there's a lot of people angry in the comments of our NFL power rankings that were published on Wednesday because the Chargers are still ahead of the Broncos despite a head-to-head win. But it's just, it's really hard to make sense of that division. So right now, the Chiefs are leading that division at 7 and 4. the three other teams are all six and five. And this is going to be a really big week for potentially getting some clarity there. And I want to know if that's going to happen. So the Sunday night game is flexed. It is now the Broncos at the Chiefs. The Broncos have lost 11 straight games to Kansas City. 11. That's wild. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was week

two, I believe, of the 2015 season. It was a Thursday night game. at Arrowhead Stadium. Peyton Manning's last season. It was a crazy game where they basically, the chiefs were going to play for overtime, and the Broncos forced a fumble from Jamal, from Jamal Charles, as they were basically trying to run out the clock,

scoop and score the Broncos won that game. Critical game for them getting. Sounds very on brand for the 2015 Broncos. Oh, exactly. Yeah. I mean, it was one of those when you went back and watched, or when you watched like the America's game, like the NFL films thing at the end of the season,

And everybody pointed back to that game because that game basically enabled them to get to win the division and get the one seed in the AFC and have the home playoff games and all that sort of stuff. But that was the last time. So they have lost every single game to the Chiefs in the post-Paeton Manning era. And a lot of those games have not been close. There have been some games that have been competitive into the third quarter, maybe even a little bit into the fourth quarter. But there have been a lot of really memorable and not memorable in a good way games for the Broncos now. So, you know, I live in Denver. They're talking a lot about this.

I am skeptical because I've been at a lot of those games that have not been competitive where the Broncos have not, you know, they've embarrassed themselves on national stages against the chiefs over the years. So this is just a really big game. If the Broncos are for real, the Broncos are going to be a playoff team. They have to win an Arrowhead. And if they win this game, it will be the biggest win of the post-Paeton Manning era. If they win this game, I'm just throwing my hands up with this NFL season.

It's not even worth analyzing this. shit anymore if the Broncos beat the chiefs and just throw the entire AFC back into chaos. Yeah. I mean, I'm not expecting it to happen. I will not be picking them. I will see who Lena picks because she is much smarter at picking games. She went 12 and 3 this week, which is just nothing tells you more about the state of the center full season that my five-year-old is killing it at picking games.

She's unburdened with knowledge. It sounds like an amazing place to be. It is really great. But so, you know, I think this is a chance that we're going to get to know more about the Chiefs. They're coming off their by week. Andy Reed is typically really freaking awesome coming out of biweeks. So I think this is a game that we'll understand if the Chiefs are kind of on the trajectory that we maybe expected them to be over the previous three weeks going into their biweek. We're going to learn if the Broncos are for real. And then the other two teams

in the division, we've got the Raiders hosting Washington, who we just talked about. Is Washington a dangerous team to play? What has made Washington good? You know, the Raiders had that big win against the Cowboys, which I don't think a lot of people outside of my five-year-old daughter picked them to win on Thanksgiving in Dallas. But Derek Carr has been playing great. They just need to see, we just need to see it more consistently out of the Raiders. So that's a game that the Raiders can't lose. And then I think we're going to get a little bit more into this game. But Bengals Chargers, that's like the sneaky other game of the week. Flax into the afternoon slot for a reason, right? I mean, this is, this becomes a really big game. And that's my big question. Which,

of these teams is going to be able to make a push in the AFC, which one is going to kind of jockey for a position here over the next six weeks or so? Because they're both right now, as things currently stand, they both be in the playoffs, I believe. So can the Bengals end up stealing that division? Where do they fall? We talked about with the bro MVP odds a little bit. So just this game in general, what it means to the AFC playoff picture. I also just think this would be amazing if these two kind of developed a back-and-forth rivalry over the next decade or so. These guys are going to be compared to one another along with Tua. We'll see about that here over the next however long forever.

It is going to be one of those things where they are compared to one another and they are measured against one another for the rest of their careers. I love that shit. That stuff to me is always fun. I think when those little tiny rivalries and back and forths kind of come out, it's always enjoyable for the league. I don't think these guys have the temperament to have a J. Culler-Philip River sort of situation for the rest of time. but I do think that just in terms of the overall story of it, I want to see these two guys playing each other. They're so different stylistically, like, you know, just the way that Burrow plays and, you know, how you can contrast that, which is the supernova of ability that Justin Herbert has, but they both get it done in their own ways.

So just what those two guys look like on Sunday, what it means for the AFC playoff race, that is definitely the one thing that's on my mind heading into the weekend. Yeah, and I think unlike when, when you talk about the dolphins, so like whenever the dolphins and chargers are going to play. play, you're going to get that whole thing of like, oh, the dolphins took the wrong guy. I don't think the Bengals thought they took, believe they took the wrong guy. I think both of those organizations are thrilled with the guy that they came out of that draft with, which makes it really exciting because they're very clearly building around these two players. Yeah, very, very different in the way they play, but very similar in the fact that they are the franchise

quarterback for those teams. And the way that the NFL scheduling formula works out where, you know, the second place team or the third place team or the first place team in the division will play each other the next year. It could very well shake out that we're going to get to see these two teams play a lot. It's never going to get quite the stature. I don't think of, you know, I don't think it's going to get flexed into Sunday night football a lot. I pissed off a lot of chargers and Bengals fans by saying that moving Patrick Mahomes in a prime time was a no-brainer for the NFL because they're going to sell a lot of state farm ads on Sunday night football because Patrick Mahomes and he is. still that huge, huge, huge draw. I think he's replaced basically everybody else outside of Tom Brady

is like the guy that you always want to get in prime time. You know, just by the nature of like the markets that the Bengals market and the Chargers market. But this is going to be a great game. And I'm really, I'm really excited. So it's also going to help give us some clarity in the AFC West because the Chargers have been maddeningly inconsistent. And I think we all just want better from them. We expect more out of them. So to see them, you know, kind of lay an egg against the Broncos the way that they did. And like, to the Broncos credit, Vic Fangio had a great defensive game plan and has played, and the Broncos have played Justin Herbert well. Also, it's one of those things. We want it right away, right? We want the Chargers to be good right away. Justin Herbert's like 25 games in his career.

Like, it's, it's going to be fine. Let's have a little bit of patience about the ebbs and flows of where these guys go. I also think it's fun that if the Herbert Burrow thing becomes a thing, you're going to have Herbert guys and Burrow guys, which those factions and what they say about the people in them. I really like that. On today's podcast with Dane, when we're talking about the draft and redrafting 2020, we both just like, oh, yeah, Justin Herbert would go number one. And Beggles fans are just furious. It's like, how could you say that?

It's like, well, I don't know, man, he's really, really talented and also really good. Joe Burroughs also great. I'd still probably another have Justin Herbert. I have enough self-awareness to say, me just doing that instantaneously probably says more about me than it does about those two guys. But again, I think that that conversation moving forward, that's fun. I enjoy that. All right.

It's time. Sell me on Thursday night football. Okay. So Thursday night football, we've got Cowboys at Saints. And I texted you a couple days ago that I wasn't sure if I could sell, sell the Taysom Hill experience with a straight face. And I still can't. I just don't think I can like with a good conscience.

endorse watching the Taysam Hill quarterback experience. But I can't sell it as like a curiosity factor. And you never know what's going to happen. Watch it through the lens of like, pretend you're trying to see what Sean Payton sees. Because Sean Payton sees something when he watches Taysam Hill that nobody else does. Not a single other person outside of maybe Taysam Hill's family sees. So watch it through that lens of saying, okay, maybe there's something here. Let's see. And look, it can't be any worse than what we saw over the last couple weeks. So that's all I'm to say about the Saints and I'm just going to watch the Taysam Hill thing for a curiosity factor. The Cowboys, though, meanwhile, Amari Cooper is back.

C.D. Lamb is back. So there's a lot of fantasy implications at play. Yeah, I mean, that offense was really rough to watch over the previous two games without those guys. So there's a lot of fantasy implications. I, for one, have a fantasy team that is very Cowboys offense heavy, Doc Prescott, C.D. Lam. So I will be glad to be watching those guys back. And then my other factor is I want to find out it's one of those, what's the thing? What is it that you do here? That's kind of what I want to know about Mike McCarthy because Mike McCarthy is going to be out this week. But I want to see if that has really any impact because I think if there's any team in the NFL that is prepared to lose their head coach for a game because of COVID protocols.

It would be the Cowboys, right? Dan Quinn is a very recent former head coach. He is going to slide in taking over those head coaching duties. in addition to his defensive coordinator role. Callan Moore runs that offense, calls the plays. So I don't think it's going to be a massive factor that Mike McCarthy isn't there. But I'm curious, maybe there's something that we're missing about Mike McCarthy. I want to see what the offense looks like.

I want to see what they look like healthy. It was so disappointing just their struggles over the last couple weeks without those receivers. I'm not laying blame on that. I'm not making an excuse. But I want to see if they can get back on track because this is an offense that we were so excited about a few weeks ago. can they find that again? And again, maybe even bring some juice back into the Dac Prescott MVP conversation, tying it back to the beginning of the show.

So I'll be tuned into that, as I always am, because I am a sicko and watch any football at any time. Yes, also very fun. All right. That's all for you and I. It's time to get to our conversation with Mark Cabali. Mark, very much appreciate the time. Thank you so much for doing this. Hey, anytime.

I don't know if who's having a bet worst week. hear the Steelers, but hey, you got to do, you got to fight through it. As Mike Tomlin said, you know, put up and shut up, Tom is for him and me. Yeah, I was going to say, well, before we get into everything that's gone on, we're wrong with the Steelers, because there's a lot to discuss there. I do want to know how you're doing because if you don't follow Mark on Twitter or if you haven't been following, what's been going on with him, you tore your Achilles tendon right before covering a game in LA last week.

So one, how are you doing? And two, how did this happen? Oh my. You go 3,000 miles from home, cover a game in a beautiful stadium, and you get to the con course, and you hear snap. And I mean,

it's just so embarrassing, such an embarrassing story, because asking everybody knows Sam Farmer, I was walking with him saying, hey, how do you get to this press box? So we go through it. And it's a hall.

It's very confusing. You got to go up an elevator. It's a lot. So it's not as embarrassing as it might seem. That's a trek. I would not know because I got through the metal detector, went through the door and snap. And I'm like, oh, my goodness. He goes, what's wrong? I said, I think I tore my Achilles. I just took a step and that was it.

Well, make a long story short, I end up being put on a gurney at SoFi Stadium, taking down a level on the concourse, down the level, right by the tunnel to go out and onto the field where the medical people are. I'm worried. I'm like, so embarrassed. I'm like, please don't go past the Steelers locker room nobody come out and see me strapped to a gurney well it turns out they don't know what they're doing they send me to the Englewood ER meanwhile strap me up to the gurney again right past the Steelers locker room thinking cover my eyes like like my little four-year-olds so hopefully nobody sees me you know into the ambulance five hours at the Englewood ER and we can all imagine how that went and next thing you know um they oh wow they

I don't know. I have to somehow try to get on a plane and fly back five hours to Pittsburgh. And American wouldn't let me on the flight because my toes were showing. It was just a disaster. People think this is a glamorous job. And you missed one of the most exciting, incredible games of the Steelers season. Hey, I got back to the hotel, mind you, my phone was running out of Jews. So I didn't even have, I couldn't follow it because I didn't want my phone to go dead. then I couldn't get an Uber back to the hotel that I didn't even know where the hotel was.

So I finally get back to the hotel just as Miles Killebrew blocks to punt. I'm thinking maybe I should have made it back to the stadium. But how you guys are talking, how you get to that press box, I'd still be walking. Well, it's been an adventure of a week for you. It's been an adventure of a year for the Steelers. There are a lot of different things to chew on here. And they are coming off of a performance. I think on Sunday night show, Nate said that Ben Robsberger is on his no-fly list now.

He's just not going to talk about him anymore because it's so depressing. When you watch them on offense last week, that's kind of how it feels. This team is 23rd in weighted offensive DVOA, which feels reasonable, right? Coming into the season, it would have been not that shocking for them to be below average on offense based on what they were last year. They're 27th in defensive DVOA. And that is shocking. So it feels like they've come to a place that's hard. to reconcile for this franchise as a whole, the way we identify with them, what the Mike Tomlin era

has looked like. And that's why I wanted to do this right now, because I kind of wanted to take a step back and just take stock of where this team is, because in the Mike Tomlin era, this feels a little bit like uncharted territory to me. Oh, absolutely. You got to understand. This defense was going supposed to be the catalyst of everything they did. You could talk all you want about the offense. But when they brought Rothersberger back, And when they changed that whole entire offensive line, it was under the belief that they were going to run the ball that Ben would have had to make five or six good throws a game and let the defense win it for you or turn the ball over short fields. Set the bar real low. Yeah, I mean, that's the way they were going to have to win.

I mean, how many teams have changed four or five offensive line and three of them are like rookies or hasn't played offensive corner getting eight or gone? Two new offensive line coaches gone. I mean, it was going to be, and plus a 39-year-old quarterback, a rookie tight-in, a rookie running back, there's going to be issues. I mean, there's going to be issues with the offense from the beginning. Rathusberg was still their best option. He still is their best option. But on that flip side of the ball, two key things happened was when Stefan to it, injured his knee, and we don't know where he sits because his brother was tragically killed in a car accident, hit and run back in April. and apparently it messed him up pretty much mentally,

and of course, I mean, rightfully so. But then he injured his knee. He hasn't been back at all. Nobody knows what's going on with him. Tyson Alu Alu, a guy that, you know, half the people might not even know the guy's name or who he is. Extremely good run defender, breaks his ankle five quarters into the game.

All of a sudden, you flip back to early in March, and this team was way over the cap. They had to cut people. They had to just get anywhere to get some cap compliant. The depth hurt. The depth took the brunt of it all. They have nobody on that defensive line that's any good or has any experience. You have T.J. Watton's been in and out.

Even Hyesmith has been okay, but he can't really get to the quarterback as much as all. Devin Bush has been a disaster coming back off of his knee injury. It looks like he's afraid to play the game. Joe Schobert is what he is. He's solid, but he's just an average player. Mink is not having much success because he's putting in positions not to succeed. And, you know, Joe Hayden's been hurt a lot a little bit. So I don't know if it's so much that this is something that schematically or anything like this,

they just don't have the horses on defense right now. And that's basically what it is. And when you can control what Cincinnati, if you watch that game against the Bengals, 10 plays into that game, you said this game is over because they were beating a living crap out of them. And you don't see that very often in Pittsburgh. And that's why people are going crazy in this town. Not that they lost to the Bengals, but they just got physically beat up. And it was funny last year, I remember I wrote about it.

And I talked to Keith Butler about it and just kind of their mentality and the way that they approached their defensive front. Because there was a stretch last year of the first half of the season where that was the most dominant position group in football. were those five guys. And they would line up in that five-man front more than pretty much any of the team in the league. And they said, our five are better than your five and it's going to destroy you with that consistently. And when you look at what those five guys consisted of,

you mentioned Tyson Alulahu, who was amazing last year. I mean, just out of nowhere season, we were so good. Toad had arguably the best year of his entire career. Cam Hayward is an all-pro player in a perennial basis. T.J.W. was a defense player of the year candidate.

Bud J. Pudy was really good until he got hurt and then Alex Hithsmith came in. And now you look at that group and it doesn't consist of nearly the same players. It's so much different. And then you start to chip away, right? You lose a Stephen Nelson. You lose a Mike Hilton. And it's just you erode what this defense was over the last couple years.

And when they could just line up and play and be better than you, which they could be for a really long time, with that off the table, they don't have kind of the schematic crutches that other defenses have been able to lean on in the past. You know, be honest with you, you go, that was a little bit of self-inflicted, too, because of this once in the lifetime pandemic where they, minus $30 million in cap space. They had no choice but to cut Stephen Nelson. They didn't need the cash. They had no choice but to let Mike Hilton go because they needed the cash. So you wonder if it was a normal year, do those guys stay around?

Because, you know, that slot corner position has been an issue too. I mean, that's been a revolving door of nobody's or, you know, veteran journeyman that hasn't been produced the way Mike Hilton's been able to produce. And right now is they thought James Pierre was going to be a better version of Stephen Nelson. And you saw last week that he's just not ready for that right now at that point right now. So it's just, I don't know. I would just like to see if there was no pandemic, what would have happened? How would they have constructed this team? I mean, that goes with the offensive line, too.

They didn't have any money to upgrade there at all. They probably were fortunate that when they released the Castro because of the injury, the ankle, that a guy like Trey Turner was there, he might be their best offensive lineman. That's not saying much, but I'm just saying he might be their best offensive lineman right now. I mean, poor decisions. You can't take that out, too. I mean, I think he should have kept Stephen Nelson, but, I mean, everybody in the world knew when they let Melvin Ingram get his way,

they was going to come back and bite them in the rear end. Everybody knew that. I mean, you can't just have Alex Highsmith, T.J. Watt, than Derek Tuska and Taco Charlton. You just, I mean, you can't do that, and you can't let that guy go. He forced him his way out. The funny thing is, if Melvin Ingram would have stayed,

he would have played more snaps here over the past month than he has in Kansas City. I mean, so there was some self-inflicted wounds here where they let things get out of, control. And Taco Charlton, by the way, is not a good football player. And you guys will probably will see that this week against the ratings. So before we get too much into kind of where the Steelers go in 2022, because I think there is a ton to unpack there. I want to talk more about Ben Rathosberger because, you know, he is probably the guy who's going to get most of the spot,

you know, the spotlight is biggest on him. And he's probably going to get the largest share of the blame for when things are going wrong. You've covered him for a very, very, very. long time. So can you give us kind of a, like a fair assessment of where Ben Rathesberger is right now? What is he doing well? And then what is a realistic kind of assessment of his shortcomings right now? Well, his shortcomings, obvious. He hasn't, he can't move. I mean, that's what he was for his first 10 to 12 years in the league where he was able to make, I mean, even, I'm not even talking about scrambling and running yours because he was never that, just being able to get away from the rush to make both throws down the field. He's not.

he's just unable to do that. His body is unable to do that, but his mind hasn't really kicked in to tell him that, hey, I can't do this. So maybe I should get rid of the ball a little bit quicker. He's getting better with that, but that's that's always an issue he had early in the season. The offensive line is just awful. I mean, but what do you expect with, you know, two rookies and a guy that's never played and B.J. Finney and guys like that have to go in. But I think Rothersberger, it didn't help that you have basically oil and water with him and Matt Canada. I'm not talking about personality-wise, but what Matt Canada wants to do and what Ben wants to do does not mesh. And then we've seen that over the past couple of weeks that, you know,

they've been pulling away from that Matt Canada offense type of stuff, the pre-snap motions, the jet sweeps, the tempos and stuff like that. And, uh, I think that's been an issue. That's something that you probably would rather have had. That's why I was surprised when Randy Fickner was let go, because I thought of Ben was coming back one more year, that that would have been able to be a smoother transition. But he's still capable.

He's still capable of where you saw him five straight weeks when they've won. And they didn't win pretty, but he was able to make those, as I keep saying, five, six, seven throws, if it's third downs, if it's red zones, if it's down the field to be able to keep this offense in position to score, but he needs help. He needed help from Najee Harris.

And Najee Harris is pretty good, but his shortcomings are he's a, you know, he's a 10 to 15 yard back. Anything past that, he's not getting big chunks of yards to help flip field. So that's an issue. Juju going out has been an issue. Chase Claypool has not played well this year whatsoever. James Washington's invisible. Ben is an easy target because you see the numbers,

you see the picky through to Mike Hilton, some of the miscommunications. But I truly believe he's still good enough right now. By far, he's by far the best quarterback on this roster. Number two is I think he's still good enough to win games and get in the playoffs, but he needs help. And they're not giving him help on that side of the ball,

and they're not giving him help on this side of the ball. so that makes him look like a 39-year-old with a bad elbow, bad knees, bad peck, bad quad and everything else he has on the injury report. I want you to kind of give us some context because from an outsider's perspective, the way that I kind of see it over the last like five years, I guess in the post-Todd-Haley world, is that the Steelers ran the Ben Rathlisberger offense. I mean, the whole idea of elevating Randy Fickner and having someone with the history that he has with Ben and their just overall rapport, Ben's.

imprint on the Steelers offense over the last several seasons was as big as pretty much any other quarterback in the NFL in the way that he could shape it and control everything. And now when they bring Matt Canada in, that's just a strange transition. He kind of has to let loose of the rope a little bit in a way that he might not be comfortable with. So how much, in terms of how you understood it, did he shape the offense over the last five years before Matt Canada got there? Well, I think, you know, last year or last year and a half or whatever it was, I think the issue was a lot offensive line-wise. I mean, you hear the number 2.25 seconds, whatever he's getting rid of the ball.

He didn't have much choice. He had to be in the shotgun. He had to get rid of the ball quickly because he was going to get belted in the mouth if he didn't. So I think that was the little bit of the issue where he knew that I thought he was a little gun shy last year in the pocket, that he knew that he'd be getting rid of quickly, that that was going to happen. So I don't know if it was how much he shaped it other than he's going to tell Randy Fickner, hey, we need to do this because I'm getting my head knocked off and we can't run the ball. So I think, you know, if, I mean, we can go back and just think about this.

If Antonio Brown was still on the team, that's when their offense was the best. Those two just sort of played pickup football. Yeah. I mean, Antonio Brown, for how good he was, he wasn't really a precise route runner. if somebody was, you know, if a lineback was two yards where he wasn't supposed to be and A.B was there. A.B. would just go like this and Ben would see it and it gets 70 yards. That's just non-existent anymore. So I think that's a big issue. I think Antonio Brown leaving is, I think it's hurt Antonio. I think it's hurt Ben. But I think now, fast forward into this year, once this

offense starts not producing, you're going to start seeing more what Rothesberger likes to do, because he knows at least they put up some numbers last year, you know, some numbers a couple years ago as well. But I don't think you can win very many games by, you know, averaging 3.5 yards of carry and 5.7 yards per pass. They need to try some shots down the field. He hasn't been accurate at that. But trust me, I think the Matt Canada style offense might have to wait another year because I don't think, I mean, he's still going under center play action more than he has. It might not be a huge difference, but for him it is. But that's about it. A lot of the stuff you see now you saw last year and two years before that as well. All right. I've got one more

2021 question before we get into like the big ex essential crisis stuff. So I'm looking at the rest of their schedule and the Steelers are a team, they're still in this AFC playoff race. So what is kind of the best case scenario? What do the Steelers need to do in terms of the schedule? What needs to break right for them over these next six weeks or so? They got seven games left. I'm assuming nine win get you in, the nine and a tie. So nine and a half get you in. And, so they're going to have to win the majority of these games. You see, they got winnable games. I mean, you can't put anything and say they're as bad as they were against Cincinnati.

If you line it up against that, they're not going to win any of these games. They're going 511, 512 and 1 or whatever it is, 511 and 1. So you think that they have potentially winnable games against, I mean, they've played Baltimore well. Baltimore has won so many games that are won in the games they probably should have lost. Not that they could have lost. The weirdest. The weirdest games. And they always play close.

They play with them more well. So I wouldn't be surprised they came out and gave it to Baltimore and end up winning this game. But I mean, you got games in Minnesota is a winnable game. Kansas City might be tough. Tennessee is just falling apart. Cleveland obviously is a winnable game. But they're going to have to play better. That's the problem.

They're going to have to play like they did in that four-game stretch against the Broncos, Seahawks, Bears, and somebody else. The Browns, the first Browns game, yeah. Yeah, not very good, right? But if you stick to that plan of winning those ugly games, my goodness, two years ago, they won eight games with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph. They were eight and five. Their defense was a little bit better, of course, but if they're able to get a couple wins, I think the divisions out of them. pretty much shot. I don't think they're going to be able to make that many games up there.

But I'm still not counting them out right now. Now, they get whipped against Baltimore, maybe so. But the bottom line is they just have to, first of all, they have to take some pride in their work. And they've heard it a lot this week from former players or just bashing them for, you know, the effort they're giving them and embarrassing the Steelers' name. If that doesn't get into their soul and want them to play harder and at least put more effort out and put a better showing out there, I don't know what it is.

Let's face it, this team's not a Super Bowl team. This team is maybe a playoff team and maybe get in and probably get whipped in the first round. But, you know, I think they're going to have to win. I mean, that tie might come into their benefits. I mean, you know, all of a sudden, all the tiebreakers. are out. So if you're going to lose two games to the Browns and the Ravens and two to the to the Bengals, it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things because you're going to have a half game lead on them. So it might end up helping them if it's a nine win team.

I think they have a shot, but they better win this week. So I want to get into some of the existential crisis stuff because I find it personally interesting. So looking at what this offseason could look like for the Steelers. It's very different than what it's been for them over the last five years, right? You talked about it. This is a team that needed to find money in the couch cushions for a while

to be able to pay their bills because Ben Rothesberger had one of the highest cap hits in the league consistently over the last several seasons. They had expensive veterans on offense and defense. But you look at it, they could have $50 million in cap space this off season. A number that shocked me is looking at offensive spending next year.

The only team's, to spend a lower percentage of their adjusted 2020 cap on offensive players next year is the Jaguars. The Steelers are 31st. So you look at that, there's a ton of flexibility. There are a lot of avenues they could go. There are pivot points. So if you were building the ideal Steelers offseason for 2022 as this franchise sits at this

crossroads of sorts, what would that look like if the next six months went perfectly for Pittsburgh? First of all, I would address your about what they did in the off season. I think this was by design. If you looked at all the how they structured contracts and who they extended, they knew that this was going, in my opinion, I think I wrote about that about eight months ago or something, that this was going to be their one last shot in their minds. With this group, with this core things. Yeah.

So they can mold this team into anything they want. to after this season. It's unheard of to have that kind of cap space in Pittsburgh. So the way I look at it is, man, you have to look at quarterback first, right? But what do you have out there that's going to be affordable where you're not wasting all your money and being a guy that's more than a, you know, one or two year stopgap? I mean, I don't know if Jimmy Garoppolo fits here, Teddy Bridgewriters. I don't think those guys really fit here. Maybe it's a Mason Rudolph year. I don't know. but they have to address the offensive line in some sort.

I think you have to go there first because your guards are not very, or at least Trey Turner's 32. Your tackles are a little iffy. You start there. You maybe re-sign Deonté Johnson, a guy like that. Then you have to work on some of the depth issues right now. And like I was talking about, I mean, I think the Steelers, they typically don't, they don't spend money in free aging because they don't have it.

I think the highest paid free agent they ever had was Stephen Nelson. I think he made like $8 million a year. Imagine it. $8 million in the history of free agency per se. Then they cut him after two years. So it's going to be something new for them. I think you have to work on depth in all positions. I mean, especially in 17, potentially 18 games season,

you have to have quality players that can come in when somebody gets hurt. And they don't have that right now. You have to look at inside linebacker, Joe Schobert, you have to make a decision on him. You paying him 10, 11 million bucks next year. Almost none of it is guaranteed. They can save almost all of that if they decide to move on from him, which creates even more flexibility. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I mean, that's what makes this season, people are so focusing on this season and how a disaster and this team's going to stink for a while is,

I think they put it together where they can choose how they want to go right now. me, I think you have to give something, you have to do something with the offensive line, even though three of them are young. You're still going to have to get some quality players in here. I don't know if you can afford that type. I haven't really dove into who's going to be a free agent guard next year. There aren't many. I'm looking at the list as we speak. The guys at the top of it, Brandon Scherf, Andrew Norwell, who's already 30. After that, is not good. Trey Turner is like one of the next names on this list. If you look, the Steelers historically, don't sign free agents north of 29.

It's usually they want meat on the bone, but it's normally also a guy that's in his second contract where they can get him relatively cheap. But yeah, I mean, where are you going for that? You going in the draft for that? I don't know. I'm so skeptical to quarterback. I mean, what a terrible year for the draft to have not a slam dunk quarterback

because this could have been the season where they could have manipulated something to get in the draft to get in the draft, to get somebody decent. I don't know. If Sam Howell's a guy, I don't know if Kenny and Pickett's a guy, I don't know who it would be, but there's nobody that's going to come in right away and be a star. So I don't know if you even bother with that. That was my question. Do you think that with where Tom one is, with where, I mean, Kevin Colbert's not a young guy anymore. I mean, he's been at this for a long time. Do you think that with their expectations, with what they, the way they see themselves as a franchise and having a core of. of Watt, Minka, a couple of the receivers, Hayward, they'd feel comfortable kind of resetting the clock a little bit and drafting a quarterback,

or do you think that it's more reasonable for them to chase a veteran because they don't want to have this be like a full-scale reset? Yeah, I don't think they're ever going to do the full-sell reset. That's what we, a lot of us were in the offseason when we talked to Art Rooney, and they always think they're going to win. They're never going to punt on a season ever. So I can't see any tear down whatsoever. Now, it's tough with the quarterback situation here.

I don't know if you move on from Roth. There's some thought that Rothersburg might come back next year. I don't know. Maybe it's a good idea. But I think, I'm sure a lot of people are smirking at me right now. I think it's in everyone's best interest, including his, to just say, thank you for your service. I appreciate your time.

I'll see you guys at the alumni. events like I'll wave from a box for the next decade or so. What if he has six weeks of really good ball and left in him? You're thinking, okay, we got this offensive line that has some players. We've got some money to play with. We've got a good receiver. We got a good running back. Our defense is getting healthy.

Maybe we can squeeze one more run out of this quarterback. I mean, what would you rather? Would you rather have him right now or Sam Darnold? Because there's a lot of talk about Sam Darnold should have been traded to Pittsburgh rather than. That's really depressing, Mark. That's really depressing. Listen, though, it's depressing, but like Mark said, the names you're throwing out there.

It's not great. Teddy Bridgewater. This is the aisle that you got to shop in if you're going to have the 17th, 18th overall pick and you need a quarterback. This is the world that you have to get used to. And you're going to have competition for those guys. Yes. There's a lot of other teams that are in that market as well. We have this pie in the sky idea about Russell Wilson and Aaron Rogers and whatever.

the moment that the Seahawks choose Russell Wilson over Pete Carroll and Aaron Rogers stays in Green Bay, your list now looks like Jimmy Garapolo at the top. That's how it typically works in the veteran quarterback market. We don't have many years where there's a Matthew Stafford available. The Matthew Staffords don't come along. So you're looking at the Garapolos as the prize of that group. And that's where it starts to get a little bit dicey. And what about the Deshaun Watson card here? I mean, all of a sudden there's a franchise quarterback who, if he's acquitted or whatever, he comes with his legal issues, all of a sudden's floating out there. And a couple one first round draft picks might get there. Maybe you're like, hmm. This is the conversation that a lot of teams are going to be having with themselves here over the next little while. A team that we already talked about in the show with Washington. I mean, it's a lot of teams are in this boat where you're going to have to look at the market, the guys available, the draft.

the draft because you need a quarterback upgrade. And this just doesn't feel like the year to be shopping there because there aren't that many guys available and it's not the right year to do in the draft. You're saying a potential $12 million one year contract of Ben Rothesburg would be in pretty. I don't want it. I just don't want it. I just I want to turn the page for my sake, for the sake of Steelers fans everywhere. What's $12 million getting you in the quarterback world right now?

like Chase Daniels or something? I mean, what does it get you? I legitimately think I'd rather see Chase Daniel quarterback, the 20-22 Steelers than another year, Ben Robespberger. I think I would. I'm not saying it'd be better, but I think for everyone's sake, it might be a better solution right now.

I would like to say, for the record, this was not me slandering Chase Daniel. I love Chase Daniel. Chase Daniels is very important person to me. And to my family and my husband. So I was not the one making this. So you know, we know what it's going to be. It's going to be Mason Rudolph or you guys are going to say, you guys are going to say, boy, Ben's not that bad compared to Mason Rudolph.

I hope that's not the organizational dictum here. It's like, well, you know what, we're going to have Trot Mason Rudolph out there. And that's people are going to appreciate Ben Robsberger. It's a lot of questions, a lot of big questions for this organization that in so many ways has been a standard bearer for the league, right? You look at the way they've built the way you talk about it. They don't shop in free agency because they don't have to. And because they don't have the money to because they're paying their guys all this money. They draft, they develop, they retain, and they don't lose.

And now they're in this place where that model, who would say it's broken, but it's not running on all cylinders like it has been in the past. And that leads, like Lindsay said, to some bigger existential questions about a franchise that doesn't often have to ask them. You know, the standard is the standard, right? That's the way that they operate. And now the standard is a little bit different. And I think it's taken us to a place with this team that I'm not familiar with.

It's new ground for me. And I kind of don't know how to navigate it. You know, you know they're going to win out in the 11, 5, and 1. And your whole theory is going to be shot now, right? That's typically how it goes. It's typically how it goes with me. But that's okay. Mark, thank you very, very, very.

That would be a great story if it happens. Yeah, it would be. It would be. I'm totally fine with it. I'm totally fine with it. All right, Mark, thank you very, very much for the time. Fantastic to get your insight. I appreciate you doing this with us.

All right. Anytime. Take care. All right, guys. Thank you so much to Mark for his time. Thank you very much to Lindsay. Appreciate all of you guys listening. Please do me a favor.

Please rate and review the podcast on whatever podcast platform you use. Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. Highly encourage you guys to do that. It makes a great gift for someone this holiday. holiday season if you're interested in doing it that way. I just want to say before we wrap up here, the Spotify year end kind of wrap-ups or today, it really warms my heart to see how many of you had the show up there in your top five or it was your most listened to podcast. And when I came

over here a year and a half ago to do this, there is trepidation. You know, there's a sense of, man, you're starting something from scratch and there's a lot. It's intimidating. And to have so many of you latch on to the show and have it be a part of your routine and a part of your lives and to really carve out a space like that, that means a lot to me. It's not just something you guys listen to casually. It's something that is in your living rooms. It's in your houses, in your day-to-day life. It's really cool to see that. So I will never be able to get over how cool that is, how much that means to me to see that kind of stuff. So thank you for sending that along. And thank you for listening. I mean, I'll probably say that a lot here.

and get very sentimental as we get toward the end of the year and kind of think back with some perspective. So expect more of that for me. But for the time being, thank you guys very, very much. It really does mean a lot. All right. We'll be back tomorrow with Nate and Sheel doing our pick segment previewing some week 13 games.

Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll touch you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.