The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - NFL Black Monday: Brian Flores, Matt Nagy, Mike Zimmer out & more news with Mike Sando

Episode Date: January 10, 2022

Robert Mays and The Athletic’s Mike Sando break down all of the NFL firings on Black Monday. They begin by discussing the Bears’ decision to move on from Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace and the end of Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman’s tenure in Minnesota. They also talk about the surprise firing of Brian Flores and why the Giants are sticking with Joe Judge. They wrap by examining potential head coach candidates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. The Athletic Football Show is presented by State Farm, because like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today is Monday, January 10th. Just so you guys know, we're recording this at about 1 p.m. Eastern time on what is normally referred to as Black Monday. We didn't want to wait until Tuesday to address some of the moves that have been made, some of the coaches that have been fired,

some of the GMs that have been fired. We're going to recap everything that has happened in a pretty hectic news day in the NFL. And to help me do that, I'm very excited to welcome the athletic zone. Mike, how you doing? I'm doing well. It is always a day where we watch Sunday and we're so into everything and it's all irrelevant like the next morning because we're all on this other stuff. So let's get into this.

It's such a straight. I was telling Nate this when we were talking today. That show we did last night is such a strange show. Because games happen, but the actual particulars of the games don't seem to matter, even though they really matter because they determined who made the playoffs and who didn't. But after the season ender, after the season finale, it's always such a strange just pile to dig through because of all of the implications and all of the wide-ranging consequences that come down from Sunday night. We had plenty of that this morning. Let's start in Chicago. Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace are both fired.

which is a little bit surprising to some people, I think, because we always knew or always figured that Matt Nagy would be gone. There was some rumblings about Ryan Pace potentially staying with the organization. That did not happen. So now we have a total clean break in Chicago. When you saw this news, what was your first reaction this morning? Well, I think it's a little bit encouraging for the Bears to get the head coach and GM on the same timeline. I think there's just a lot of baggage, as you know, there. And so whether or not Ryan Pace was going to do a good job.

drafting or was a good guy in the building or whatever was going to happen. I like to have the head coach GM on the same wavelength, and I feel like it's time. So this is probably positive for the Bears now. We'll see what they do next. But it feels better to me to reset them at the same time after sort of all we've been through the last few years, right, as opposed to some sort of, okay, we're keeping pace and who does he want. And then when we're halfway through last season, we're talking about Pace's record, right? Doesn't it feel like this was probably what should have happened, but you weren't sure

if it would happen? Yes, that's exactly what I feel. This is what should have happened. There was just no benefit to me of keeping him. There was no benefit to me of retaining elements of the organization based on the way the last few years had gone. And I understand that there are aspects of Brian Pace's tenure as the Bears GM that are encouraging, right? They've done a very good job. Very good might be strong. They've done a solid job of finding talent in the middle rounds. When you look at guys they've found in the fifth, sixth, seventh round consistently, that's

been a positive aspect of this. But that's not everything. Where you find occasional players in these drafts is not what should dictate whether or not you keep a GM and what the power structure of an organization should look like. This team consistently chased the shiny thing. They were so steadfast in their belief that they knew better in so many of these decisions, trading up for guys in the draft. Two spots. Trade up.

Yeah. Two spots multiple times. Or like Leonard Floyd or whatever. These are those non-process oriented things you're talking about. Correct. The process was broken so often. And there was just no reason to me to retain the person responsible for that process. I thought as an organization, they needed to start over.

they needed to take a long, long look in the mirror and ask who do we want to be. Obviously, with ownership still being the people that they are, that's hard. That's going to be difficult when the people that are ultimately in charge are going to stay in charge. But I feel like they need to ask serious questions about every other aspect of how their football operation works. And that was not going to happen as long as Ryan Pace was still there. The anecdote that came out last week that Owen Crutes had where he wanted to be, an assistant or Harry Highstead asked him to be an assistant with the offensive line a few years ago. And the organization offered him a $15 an hour contractor job to help out with the offensive line.

This is the type of stuff you need to seriously address. And that only happens when you take a real existential look at who you are. And that's what needs to happen. They need to bring in new leadership, whatever it looks like. Whatever that structure ends up looking like. If you want to go hire a VP of football operations that oversees the GM, if you want to bring in a GM, if you want to bring in a head coach and GM that are aligned, I just think they need to take a serious look at everything they're doing because it's rotten from the core. And if you're going to carry on pieces of that rot for no reason in the name of some misplaced continuity, I don't understand what that, why. I don't understand why that would be the thought process.

So when I saw that today, I don't take pleasure in any of this, but this. feels right. This feels like what needed to happen. Well, it gives them, like you said, a better chance to have a more complete change. And they still may not do all the structural things that we think they should. But if you don't do those structural things, then you're overly dependent on the actual people you hire, right? They have to be able to do in things the right way and have the right vision for things. And we don't feel from watching in the last few years that that was all where it should have been. So we'll see what they do. I'm a little skeptical that they'll actually, you know, change the structure dramatically.

I thought Dan Pompeii had a good column a month or two ago, maybe four or five weeks ago about how they should bring in a football-oriented team president, that sort of thing. I would support that completely. But it's hard to get people to make changes in ways that imperil themselves or diminish their own power. No one does that. And that's why they could be just resetting with new people, but not a completely new structure. Well, my understanding of this is that obviously Ted Phillips has been the team president. I say obviously because I hear and talk about this all the time. Ted Phillips has been the team president for a better part of two decades, I want to say.

He comes from the business side of this. And if you look at it, the structure is George Pukaski is the chairman. Ted Phillips is under him as the team president. Ted Phillips comes from the business side of this. If they kind of push Phillips aside, kind of sequester him on the business side of the organization, there really isn't anyone else whose job security would be tenuous. McCaskey is a McCasky. Yeah, yeah, he's not going anywhere.

So other than that, it feels like there really would be some space to kind of remake this if you wanted to and kind of take some hard looks at everything you do and the ways that you operate. That to me would be the encouraging part of this. And you said it's the process here has been broken for so long in the ways that they were doing this under Ryan Pace. One of the guys that rumored as a potential candidate for the GM job that Adam Hope was talking about today was Morocco Brown from. the Colts. And, you know, there's, it's been a weird 24 hours from the Colts. But I think that's the type of mindset and process I want them to follow. I want them to look at one of these teams that has had sound process for the past however many years. Teams like Green Bay, teams like the Ravens, teams like the Steelers, teams that have built a consistent and reliable way of

doing this with sound processes for the last however long and try to implement that sort of of patience, vision, and approach because they have lacked that. They have lacked that sort of timeline and long-term sound fundamental thinking over the last several years. And I think that they need to start over at that sort of level. Yep. Yep. It's easier said than done for these organizations, but I'm with you 100%.

And now we'll just see what they do. You look at the actual specifics of the personnel. A lot of different ways this team can go. You know, they have a decent amount of cap space. They don't have a lot of players. They have a long, long way to go. You have Justin Fields. You have Tevin Jenkins, who they drafted in the second round last year,

who's had a very mixed rookie year in limited action. And then you look on defense, and you have guys like Roquan Smith, J.O.N. Johnson. Robert Quinn had a really nice year. We'll see what they end up doing with Khalil Mack if they want to trade him. I mean, right now you're starting with Justin Fields and a mostly blank slate. That is what whoever comes into this job is going to be working with on the personnel level and on the coaching level. So I think you want a coach who's going to have a plan

for how you want to develop the quarterback. And I think you have to have a personnel head, a GM, somebody in charge of this, that's going to have a plan for how to help out that quarterback. They should spend a ridiculous amount of their assets and their resources this offseason on building up an offensive line to put in front of that young quarterback.

That should be the first priority here. Other than that, we'll see what happens. But they do have the flexibility outside of the first-round pick to make that happen. The problem you get into when you make that your priority, which you should, as far as the quarterback, is you look for guys who you think are good with quarterbacks, and that's not what makes a good head coach. And it's so tempting to try to find really the next Matt Nagy, right? Because that's why they hired Matt Nagy, right? Because he's good at working with quarterbacks was what people thought. But you have to be good to lead the organization

with the vision. And if you look at all the most successful coaches in the history of the game as head coaches, you're not, the first paragraph of their Hall of Fame speech isn't about the great scheme they had or how they really knew how to work the RPO's. It's about how they could lead the organization. And so that's the balance you get into when you're trying to tailor this thing for Justin Fields, who will see how great he's going to be. But if you have a great coach, then Justin Fields is still going to be good if he's going to be good. And I think that's, again, I'm more open to that than I probably would have been a couple years ago when it came to what the coach would look like and what his background would look like. When it comes to the field plan, it doesn't need to be, this is my scheme, this is how I'm going to allow Justin Fields to operate.

If you are a defensive-minded head coach or you are someone that's going to be in a more CEO-type role, what does your offensive staff look like? Why does it look like that? What is your plan for developing young offensive talent on your team because of the assistant coaches that you're bringing in? All of that kind of stuff. Yeah, and do you know how to hire? One of the notes I put into my pick six column today was about Mike Rable. And one of the front office people I was talking to this last weekend was like, look at him. He's a defensive coach.

That's where you think his expertise is. And he's hired as his offensive coordinators, Lafleur, Arthur Smith, and I will see with Todd Downing. He had a lot of injuries. But that's a pretty good track record, right? Of your coach, like he knows how to do it. And I remember being on a Zoom with Mike Rable a couple of years ago as he was one of the featured speakers for young coaches and young executives. I think it might have been put on by the black football coaches Hall of Fame. I seem to remember maybe Doug Williams and some others were involved in it.

I think it was two years ago. Yeah. Two years ago. Yeah, you might have been on that too. And he was talking about, and shoot, I can't remember who it was. But he was talking about him putting together to his staff, maybe you remember. There was somebody who was like his best friend, maybe in Houston or somebody he had played with. and he just told him overtly, I don't think the fits right.

You know, let's not do this. I don't think that. And who does that, right? Everybody immediately calls their friends and you can put together the staff based on, oh, this guy was with this guy. He knows him. And I think Vrable has done a pretty darn good job with an offensive side of maybe hiring for the right reasons. And so that's what a leader looks like, right?

You never would have said, oh, you know what, whoever we have, Mariotta, Tanahill, we're going to get Mike Vrae. able to fix them, right? You would never have said that. You would have gone and hired Matt Nagy. That's what it would have been. Yet, Rable has shown the acumen, the ability to hire pretty good staffs. And if you looked at Tennessee since Ravel's been there, they're probably top five in offensive EPA, whatever, even with their struggles this year, where they fell off a cliff with the injuries and everything else. So pretty good lesson there, right? Yeah, absolutely. And I think, again, It's about having a plan for what the offense should look like and why.

And no matter who the coach is, even if he's an offensive coach, a defensive coach, that has to be an aspect of this. All right, let's stick in the NFC North. Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman, the Vikings general manager, both let go today. I think, again, the Redding was on the wall with Zimmer. We all expected this. It felt like a change needed to happen. With Spielman didn't necessarily feel like that was the case.

He's been there for a very long time. Obviously, they've had a really solid run. during the Zimmer era, wasn't sure what this was ultimately going to look like, but the Vikings now are starting over. And this stretch, which has been, I don't even know how to characterize it. You know, they've been, they've had these teams, you know, I think about that 2017 team and how close they were and how good that team was. And then you look at what has happened over the last few years, and they could just never get over the hump for a variety of reasons. But personally, the way that I just kind of felt about this, was looking at this.

And a lot of people have said this. It just felt like it was time for a change there. It did. I'm surprised. I thought Rick Spielman was sort of a made man there. We'd heard some things like, oh, they could push him into a president role. And maybe it would be a Rich McKay type situation where he's there. He's involved.

But his name doesn't go on the draft picks, right? That's kind of what I thought would happen. So this is very interesting to me that they would do both at the same time. They've got Kirk Cousins for one more year. We'll see what the name. person wants to do there, but they've got one more year with a lot of money, could move them if someone was interested. I also agree. It felt like to me their window started to close, and it shows how precious those opportunities are, Robert. I remember just with all the teams

I've ever covered, when you think you're in the window, you can't miss on those chances. And they were, I believe they were a favorite against Philadelphia in the NFC championship game. And when they lost that, then you have two things you can do. You can try to prop the window opened, which is what everybody does, and just keep going. And they did that, and it just ran out of time. I mean, they were never going to achieve that height with the same core. And I totally agree that it was time. And I think it was the same story over and over at head coach and quarterback.

And if you're a Viking fan, even though you acknowledge that those guys did some good things, you probably feel good about the opportunity to start fresh there. I remember in the summer of 2018, I think it was. If you go to the Vikings practice facility now that's in Egan, looking over the practice field, there's a little balcony, and Rick Spielman's office was right there next to that balcony. He and I were sitting on that little terrace there overlooking the field, and we were talking about that team and the move they had made for Kirk Cousins.

If you remember that 2017 Vikings team, they finished second in offensive DVOA. Yeah. I mean, they're a buzzsaw Eagles team away from going to the Super Bowl. They had the best defense in the league over the course of that season. They were a real true blue contender. They absolutely could have won the Super Bowl that year with Case Keen and my quarterback. They saw Kirk Cousins as a rare opportunity in free agency. They looked at the team they had in 2017 and how close they were.

And they looked at Kirk Cousins and said, this is a quarterback that is different from the type of guy you could typically get on the market. He is one step, two steps above from what those guys typically look like. And if we drop him into this equation, this puts us over the top. They thought that the linear trajectory was there. And this was the final step to get them to be one of the best teams in the league. And that didn't happen, right? It was one of those moments where the other aspects of it, as they start to erode a little bit,

as they always do, the trajectory is not linear. So now you kind of have this up and down little flow where the offensive line has holes. The defense has been injured and has aged a little bit. And that movement that they thought was going to happen never happened. It plateaued, and now they're stuck in this plateau. And that's where they've been over the last couple years where every single offseason you think, well, if this goes right, and if this goes right, these few little things, then we can get there. And that never happened.

And I think we got to a place where you could no longer rationalize the tinkering. And now, if you can't, it's time to tear this thing down to a certain extent and start over. Yeah. And I think if you could have frozen those other elements in their current state, right, and had the defense be this good and whatever on the offense. And then just plug in Kirk Cousins because actually of all of the things that they've had there since they got Cousins, Cousins has been one of the most stable, right? I mean, for better or worse.

He's, Kirk Cousins is what he is. He is what they thought he was going to be. He's, he's what they paid for. He, I mean, I think they, I think he did what, almost what they expected him to do, except that as other things eroded and fell off,

he wasn't going to elevate it. And when you're making $40 million a year, that's a concern. Absolutely. And, you know, the, the way they had to enter into that deal and giving them such a big contract. and then him having them over a barrel as they tried to keep the window open. I mean, you know, his agent really had him. And they kept doing these big deals.

I mean, shoot, his deal now is great for him. So it's hard to find that quarterback piece. And I don't entirely fault them for trying to plug them into that window and see what would happen. I don't entirely fault them for that. It, you know, their record was good for a few years. And even now, it wasn't like they went two and 12. They were, they've been a competitive team the whole time. They just couldn't get over the top and join the club.

There's a lot of teams like that. You look at it now. Next year is going to be tough. You know, they're underwater money-wise. I mean, $45 million for Kirk. I think there's a world where they potentially could trade him and pay some of that salary. You know, if there was a team that was willing to give up something for him and the Vikings are like, we'll eat half of that $35 million-based salary or whatever it ends up being.

That's not that far-fetched to me. I think that there could be a mutually beneficial solution that they could find there, where they could shed some of that salary, get a potential draft pick, eat half of it, and just move on. Even if he plays there next year, and they do some restructuring, cut a couple guys to get under the cap. 2023, his team is really a blank slate. Yeah, Justin Jefferson, Eric Kendricks, DeNeil Hunter, Harrison Smith and Adam Thielen are under contract, but are going to be in their mid-30s by that point, so who knows? And then really got the two offensive tackles.

that are a nice little foundation to work with at that position group and Ezra Cleveland. That's it. I mean, you're working, you're starting over there with Justin Jefferson, really, and a couple other young guys, and that's all. So while 2022 might be a little bit naughty, I think this is a less complicated, less baggage-filled job than it might seem at first glance. Yes, the thing you have to figure out is what do the owners think of the team, right? Do they think, oh, these guys are out of there because we should be

close. Do they think that they're going to have a good team? Do they think it's a rebuild? Because you really could move Kirk Cousins, try to get some draft capital, and arrange things for draft capital, knowing, hey, you know, it's going to be bad this first year. And then come into the 23 draft, maybe it's a better quarterback draft, right? Maybe you're able to plan from that point forward. But if the owner is just upset because they missed the playoffs, then who knows what you have to tell them to get the job. and that will be very interesting, especially if the owners speak or let us know what they're thinking. That is going to be, that would be my first question if I were taking this job. What is the timeline? What do we want the timeline to be?

How do you see the organization? Because if it's a, you know, we need to hit a soft reset button and, you know, we don't expect you to win 10 games in 2022, then I think it becomes an attractive job. I mean, you think about this team, the patience that they've shown, the loyalty that they've shown to both coach and front. office, the facilities there. And this is a pretty attractive job in a lot of ways if the expectations are correctly set from the outset.

And I think that has to be a really important kind of pivotal conversation. Agree 100%. And I think the style of leadership is going to be interesting and critical here because we've seen kind of the cranky Mike Zimmer show, right? And that's put a lot of strain on. I mean, maybe it's helped. get them, you know, be competitive for that. But we've seen things happen like Norv Turner just leave, you know, in the middle of the season.

So, and we've seen a very rigid adherence to the old school, you know, run the ball and all of that. That will be an interesting place. The whole, the tenor could change completely there in that building with that team. And maybe it is time for that. Yeah. I'll be curious to see how much they overcorrect from. Mike Zimmer's personality and what it looked like in that building, how much they want, maybe a more touchy-feely, young, offensive-minded, all of those kinds of things.

It's so interesting to see what a team has been through and how that influences and informs what they think they need next. And I think the Vikings are going to be a fascinating example of that. All right. Let's get to a shocker here. Brian Flores out as the Dolphins head coach. I was really surprised just when you think about what. what the last couple seasons have looked like, what the end of this season looked like.

There's a lot to get to get to get to here. But I was definitely shocked when I saw this happen. I did not think this was going to be on the table for that. I was surprised too because they had a, they won a lot of games late. And usually that's the bottom line, uh, determinant, right? Hey, we were hot and you can spin this narrative. I haven't, I haven't been as in love with, uh, the job being done there. I think it's not a good sign when we talked about Norv Turner leading.

Well, Chan Galey walked away from $6 million after one year. Do you think that's a good sign when they've had lots of people leave that staff? Like, they're getting out of there. So that is the argument, right, against him. Well, there's more. Do you like all the personnel moves? Well, so if you're looking at the coaching staff, right, I mean, this is, if you're going to build the case as to why maybe they should have moved on or why this is a bad situation, They've had four offensive line coaches in three years.

Not three offensive line coaches, four. They fired one in July during training camp during his first season there. That has been a huge issue. They've had four offensive coordinators in three years, if you think about the two guys they had this year. That lack of a plan on that side of the ball, that is a problem to me. But I still think it's not enough to fire him after what you admitted was a full-scale rebuild the likes that we hadn't really seen in the NFL outside of Cleveland in the last

decade. And what that looked like in the first year and then pushing to make the playoffs in the second year. And then again, a solid defense, a pretty good job. They played hard, all of that kind of stuff. The offensive failings and the fact that the offensive line is an absolute disaster. I think there are a lot of aspects, the two of conversations we can get into. I think there's so many aspects of this for why the dolphins fell short that do not fall on Brian Flores, even if you have a lot of concerns about what the offensive staff has looked like over the last couple years. It seems clearly there's like a personality clash or something that drove a decision to move on.

And as we frequently see in organizations, the guys who really learn to get along are the guys in the front office. Rick Spielman can be there for a long time, right? he can kind of have some bad quarterback moves. He can pan, you know, they allegedly panicked in that draft when they took, what's his name in 13 or 14, Ponder, right, Christian Ponder. But through your ability to have these relationships and manage up, you can be there a long time. There's a lot of general managers who don't have amazing records and can stay for about.

Ryan Pace in Chicago, right? Chris, Chris, Chris, has been there for a long, long time in various roles. But it was kind of, hey, you know what? It was really, Ryan, it was really Mike Tannenbaum who was doing this. Hey, Gase had control of the roster. Hey, Chris Greer was really behind, you know, when we moved Mika Fitzpatrick. Shoot, I love the kid. I don't know if this is what was said.

But they made a lot of moves that were a little bit of kind of head scratchers. Like they subtracted some of their better veteran players. And in each case, you're like, huh, I'm not sure why they're doing that. Like, like Mika Fitzpatrick or their. Laramie Tunsell, I know they got a great offer on him. But there were a lot of, there's a trail of moves like that that don't happen in most places. And that team builders in front offices usually don't do. When you draft people and hit on them.

So there's more behind the scenes there. I don't trust the ownership at all. And so it seems clear to me that a case was made against Chris Greer, or not Chris Greer, against Brian Florey's internally and maybe he had the weaker relationship upward than others did. That's kind of how it feels. There was a power struggle or some sort of personality clash there

and he ended up as the odd man out. When you look at it, if you're going to trade McPetpatrick, if you're going to trade Laramie Me Tonsel, you need to hit on those picks that you got as a result of those deals. And that's not what happened. You know, the 2020 draft was going to be instrumental in this team finishing off its rebuild and making good on those moves and its plan that it had

in that disastrous 2019 season when they tore it all down. And that didn't happen, right? I mean, the Tua over Herbert thing is going to linger over this franchise for a long, long time. If they end up taking Justin Herbert and not Tua, Brian Flores is the coach there right now. I would almost guarantee you that he is. They might win the division. Yes. Yeah.

And that's not his fault, right? He does not ultimately make that decision, but these are how slim the margins are when you're an NFL head coach. You can be a defensive-minded head coach like Brian Flores as you can put together a pretty darn good defense over the last couple seasons that is really unique and really taps into the personnel you have in an efficient way. And if someone else chooses the wrong quarterback, it can dictate your professional future in a really pronounced way. And that's exactly what happened. And now you have a team that couldn't figure it out on that side of the ball. and now he's looking for a job. It would be very nice to know, to look at all the moves and say who was 64% behind this one and 38 behind that one.

We can see that to some degree, but that offense is, I had a note on that today. They had 15 of their 17 games with negative EPA on offense. It's most in the league of any team. Even as they're winning, it's all defense-driven. And that's really been their formula. They've been a team that had to win on defense and special teams, and that's the only way they've won. Only why they've won ever since then. If it's not Chris, Chris Greer, if it's not Brian Flores' fault on the offensive side,

then he's paying a price for somebody else. All right. Let's get to some people who have not been let go, but they're our work talking about. Justine Anderson reported today that it sounds like Joe Judge will be staying with the Giants. How do you feel about this? I don't know how you make a case for him. Yeah, me neither. We just talked about it in a few different ways.

I just haven't been impressed with any aspect of it. And especially down the stretch when he seemed to be increasingly desperate and saying strange things. It just, wow. I'm not a call for people to lose their jobs guy. Usually those things take care of themselves. But very difficult for me to see how this is working or he. he's the leader for the team. She lost a lot of credibility down the stretch with some of the things he said and how he said

him and doesn't look good. They're a bad organization. Yes. And they live off the reputation of having been a good one once, but they're a bad organization. What do you think of the defining characteristics about that? When you talk to people, what do you think are really some of the specifics that define what it means to be a bad organization in the Giants case?

Well, I think with some of these organizations, organizations, you have success and then members of the family die or things change or you get more people involved from the family, those types of things. I think it remains to be seen in Pittsburgh what the passing of Dan Rooney does longer term. And I think in the Merritt situation, that happened maybe 15 years ago. And then they were able to hold the structure together because Tom Coughlin was there, Eli Manning was there. I think we've just seen the pieces that held that place together and made it good erode or be taken away over time to now they sort of have just sort of whatever's left, which is a lot of none of that. None of what was making them great. Where you go back to George Young, Wellington, Merritt, Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning. Those were kind of the pieces that held it together. And I don't know that what's there now is proven in the same. way, right, to be able to do things the way they were done before.

So now you're overly dependent on what Joe Judge wants to do. That might not be good. You're looking at it. Dave Gettleman is retiring, is the way that we're framing us, which is fine, right? So now they will bring in a new GM who will, by all counts, but what the organization say today will oversee the head coach, not the other way around, which is interesting because Judge will be there when he's hired. So you're looking at this team and what they are just their makeup here over the next year.

They have $2 million in cap space this off season, which is 27th in the league as one of the worst teams in the NFL. They have an extra first round pick, which is nice. You know, that's going to be great. They're picking twice in the top 10 because of getting the Bears pick. They're kind of tied into this version of the roster. There aren't a lot of these deals that they can easily move on from because they handed them out in the last year. Spent a lot of money. A lot of money in order to kind of get to a sort of.

certain place and kind of create some competency by paying for it. And that didn't happen. I just don't know. You look at some of these other jobs, right? I mean, I think with the Vikings job, with the Bears job even, you can kind of see your pathway out of here in the next 18 months as a new GM. It's harder to do that with the Giants job because what do you do with Daniel Jones? What do you do with some of these deals? How long does it take yourself, how long does it take to dig yourself out of this hole. What is the best plan for this team? You have Joe Judge as the coach still, so is there any way he can get the most out of this roster? It's not like, oh, you know what? We have an expensive team, but at least we're changing over the coaching staff, so hopefully

there will be an injection here. I just don't know. I just don't know how you write this ship if you're coming in as the new GM. There is no easy answer here. Yeah, and you've got a decision on Daniel Jones for a fifth-year option coming up before he's going to play another game. What does the organization think of him? Do they think that they just have? have to move other pieces around and he's going to be the guy. You could easily do that, be very quickly in a Baker-Mayfield type situation where you're we've got him for 20 million next year. But no one really wants him as their starter.

What are we going to do? They've done, they just made bad moves there that have consequences for the long term. Was it really true? Their, their $18 million receiver and first round receiver didn't get a touchdown all season. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable. They're playing. Mike Glennon down the stretch. Jake Fromm down the stretch. Where's the plan and vision? I just don't see it at all. And I think if you're going to be hamstrung with Joe Judge, how is that good? It just can't be. Now we're in this cycle that we always get into with these teams. It's happened so many different times where you have this kind of cycle of desperation that goes down. The conversation this off scene is going to be, well, who's going to be their offensive coordinator? Who are they going to bring in to get this thing going in the right way? Jason Garrett, who has become a skisker.

scapegoat and all of this, that was a mistake. But if they get this higher right, then who knows? And they're going to bring in somebody, let's say it's Joe Brady, just like for argument's sake, right? You bring in this guy who, you know, the shine has come off a little bit, but he was a hot name. You think, you know, this definitely could work. Like, this is the type of guy that really could inject some juice into this

offense and get the best version out of Daniel Jones. And then eight games into the year when they're 28th and offensive DVOA and you're sitting there wondering, well, this team still doesn't have an offensive of line. They had no money to go out and get one. And you're doing the same thing all over again. It's the same sort of playbook that it feels like we follow over and over and over again with these teams

instead of an organization who's sitting there, being honest with itself, and saying, we've hit a dead end here. There's just no pathway out of this and it really feels like that's the point that we've reached with the Giants. Yep. And can they even be honest with themselves to make the corrections that need to be made?

We were talking about what the Bears need to do structurally. What do the Giants need to do? Who's going to lead them out of it? How is it going to be different? Or is it just going to be a continuing of the same time? And I'm mystified by the judge. If they're sticking with Joe Judge, I'm just mystified by it and wonder, are you going to then double down on him by getting a GM that really wants to work with him?

Then you're doubling down on Joe Judge after the last two seasons. It just doesn't seem to make any sense to me. So there are a couple situations that we're going to monitor over the next few days here. Obviously, what's going to happen with the Texans and David Cully? We talked about it on the show last night with Nate, a no-win situation. situation, like absolutely no-win situation. I wanted to ask you, though, about another ongoing kind of scenario here with Pete Carroll and Seattle, a team that you've obviously paid a lot of attention to over the years.

What do you think is going to happen with Pete Carroll, with Russell Wilson, with that entire structure, and what do you think should happen? Pete Carroll is sure talking and acting like someone who's coming back. So, you know, maybe that's just all smoking mirrors, but it feels that way to me that they're not going to have complete wholesale change of coach and general manager. And I am fine with that. I think he's, I think when we talk about what the head coach needs to do, it's a cultural equation that is most important.

There are some concerns, obviously, especially, you know, especially by people and media and fans over, is he outdated in his offense approach? He wants to run the ball too much. I think that's largely overblown. I think that Kyle Shanahan believes the exact same things about offense as Pete Carroll. And people think he's really smart. And I believe the way he wants to play offense, by and large, is best for Russell Wilson. And Russell Wilson's been at his best.

It doesn't mean you have to be Joe Judge against the Bears where on their first 20 early-down plays, they ran 19 times and took a sack on their 20th. That's not what we're talking about. That's not what Pete Carroll is doing. He did it one year. 2018, he did it one year. They went way off the charts and had ran a Tim Tebow run pass ratio, and that was wrong. But they haven't been that since then. And when they get it going a little bit, you could see the formula on the stretch even.

They had a nice little balance. Russell Wilson started getting healthy to look good. My fear for them is that Russell Wilson does really want out for whatever reason. Whether that's the reason that he wants to be the star of the show in some high-flying passing game, I don't know what the reason is, but I believe there's something. something to that. And sometimes when you won out of a relationship, you don't always tell why, right? Maybe you start a fight. I feel like he's done that a little bit. I think Pete Carroll's probably pretty easy to get along with. You can quibble with this or that, but Pete Carroll hasn't had problems

with people other than maybe Earl Thomas, who whatever happened there, he had problems with everybody. there's a lot of people that will that played for him for a long time that will come back to him and speak to the team or want to be around him or think he's a huge part of why they've had success there and actually uh you know has created a good framework for russell wilson but that part has to be figured out because i believe that russell wilson as he got healthier started to play better late in the year i don't think he's done oh i certainly don't think he's done either. This is the team that finished in the top 10 and waited the VOA. I know. Like they are not a bad football team. Robert, I was, I'm looking at their rankings and I saw

maybe were you tweeting it or Aaron Schatz was tweeting it. There was a back and forth. Maybe Ben Baldwin was part of that. I spent too much time on Twitter. I can't keep it all straight. God Lord knows. But I was looking at, I was looking at the rankings that I keep on and I was like, you would never know this was what the season felt like. But

that whole relationship for whatever reason has to be worked out. Like there has to be a clearing of the air to find out what is really the deal here with Russell Wilson. It can't be that Russell Wilson's mad because he thinks three early down plays early in the game should really be passes. Because that's what we're talking about to flip you to be like the other, to be like closer to Kansas City or whatever. Something is wrong there.

It has to be worked out. Careful in breaking this up. I mean, you've got good people here. I think there's good people in the leadership positions there. and you'll get a lot worse before you'll get better. But something's a miss. Something is wrong there and they need to get to the bottom of it. And if Russell Wilson just absolutely positively doesn't want to be there,

then maybe they have to consider something. But I don't know that you throw out the whole culture of an organization that's been really a model in that regard, the cultural part, which is so critical, without knowing exactly what it is that's wrong. It's their first losing season in like 10 years. They were seven and nine twice with Tavares Jackson and quarterback. They beat the defending Super Bowl champions with Matt Hasselbeck in his final game. Pete Carroll is what everybody wants to have their team be like. I think they probably some conversations need to happen about what they want to look like on offense and defense.

And obviously, I mean, this is not something you can change now, but the drafting has been a disaster. over the last few years. I mean, it's been an abject disaster, and it has left them short on talent in some areas, right? I mean, there are aspects of the roster that you can get really excited about, but for the most part, they have fallen short in the ways that they have used their draft capital to restock the talent on this team. And that has shown up.

But do you just kind of concede that it was a low point and that that was a dip and that things may kind of correct course and that it's going to get better? I don't know. I don't know what the right answer is here. Well, when you have a down season like this, you do get an opportunity as a team to use some leverage to fix some things that maybe have gotten out of line. So if Pete Carroll has been a little unduly involved in personnel moves, I mean, look, I understand he has, he's at the top of the flow chart. But if he has been behind some of the more impulsive moves with some of the trades they've made, a lot of those trades for the high profile guys, whether it was Percy Harvin or Jamel Adams or Jimmy Graham, even if they worked out in some ways, they weren't maximum. right for whatever reason like even jimmy graham had some good years but he didn't like they didn't

ex isolate him on the other side of the formation like sean peyton did and really use them and make it be mismatches so you have to find out did as pete carroll had too much say in the draft uh because this is an opportunity now to maybe tweak some of that streamline some of that if if the staff wise defensively they've been too slow to react or they've been stubborn with what they've they've played. I think if you have a great owner organization, which I don't know what it is, apart from Pete Carroll, where there's a new owner with no track record, but those questions have to really be answered to make sure you have the right staff or the right defense,

to really take what Pete Carroll, what we know he does well, which is the culture and all and that and still make sure that, you know, the staff's not atrophying. One of the concerns I have sometimes with coaches that have been in a place a long time is you look at their staff after 10 years, it's worse than it was after two years. Covered Mike Holmgren for years. Look at Mike Holmgren's staff in Green Bay when he started. They all went on to be head coaches. Well, look at his staff in his final year in Seattle.

It was what was left. So those types of things really do have to be addressed to make sure that you haven't gotten off the rails or lost your North Star in some of the, of those other areas that you feel could be better. So do that this offseason. Don't know how easy that is to do because Pete Carroll really is established and probably has a better idea than anyone else in the building of how to do it. Before we get out of here, I wanted to talk about some of the names that are going to be

thrown around here over the next week or so, just hot candidates, people that are going to be mentioned in connection with these jobs. what are the names that you've been hearing? And I think specifically, have you heard anything about NFL interest in Jim Harbaugh and what that might be looking like? Yeah, certainly have heard Dan Quinn's name a lot with Denver. I think he checks the box. He checks the culture box. I think that he learned that from Pete Carroll.

I think that's critically important. I like the second time opportunities for the guys who weren't the object failures, right? I mean, there was some redeeming stuff there. That's how I feel like Peterson. That's why I keep coming back to Doug Peters as an option for one of his teams because I feel the same way. Yes. And I do like the fact that, hey, we vetted a guy. This guy's been vetted, so we don't feel like we're just walking completely cold and don't know how he's going to react.

But has had some success. And then Dan Quinn looks like he changed some things. He wasn't just exactly the same the way he did it before defensively. So I really would like him for one of these jobs. Jim Harbaugh, I do believe that he has interested. and coming back. I don't believe that he's, I believe that he has not coached his final game in the NFL. I do believe there's, there's some truth to that. I don't know, uh, what to make of Miami. Some of the initial reports out of there just media reports were, hey, that's not the reason they did

this. And I believe that. I believe that, uh, they had an issue with Brian Flores and that's why they fired him. But I do know that owner has been had interest in Jim Harbaugh before. And, has had interest in big name people before. They were into the Deshaun Watson stuff. They were rumored before they hired maybe. They were rumored to be in on Jeff Fisher before he went to the Rams. Remember that?

He was a name guy. So they have been around name guys, I've been wanting them. So I wouldn't rule that out at all, just not knowing anything more than I do as a potential landing spot for him. Doug Peters is the name I keep coming back to. I think Jim Caldwell was interesting.

We talk about these kind of culture ideas and people that played for him really like him. What he did in Detroit, I think, is underrated. That's a name that I would. I like him too. I would endorse him. Yep. The hot offensive coordinators, I'll be curious to see how that shakes out. You know, you kind of look at the pool of guys with Leftwich, Kellyn Moore, Brian Daible, that group and who ends up getting one of those jobs.

I think that's going to be worth watching. I don't know who I would want necessarily out of that group. I think that this is one of those things where it's so hard to project because the qualities of being a good head coach are different than the qualities of being a good coordinator. I think the schematic side of this absolutely matters, right? If you were a play calling offensive head coach, how consistently can you create edges for your team? That should be a consideration when talking about this. And I do think in a perfect world, that's what I would want the bears to do. That's what I would want a lot of these teams to do, right?

If you can find the next Sean Payton, Andy Reid, a guy like that, I mean, obviously the Patriots are such a strange situation because McDaniels has been there, right? Like they have not had that guy hired away. That to me is the best case scenario with all of this. But it's so hard to look at what somebody was like as a play caller and an offensive coordinator and project that onto what it's like to be a head coach while maintaining those edges as a play caller. It's really, really, really hard to predict. completely hard to predict i i wasn't sure what nick seriani is a good example right i don't know what's going on i'm not saying he's going to be in the hall of fame but what a pleasant surprise he's done a very good job pleasant surprise and you know what part of that was the schematics he changed his scheme

in the middle of the year fairly dramatically to suit his talent i was like yes good job nick seriani but when they hired nix sriani and you watched the first press comment you're like uh you know I don't know. It's a tough market. You know, how's it going to go? You know, I think Lafleur's done a nice job, obviously, as Aaron Rogers. So that's hard to separate out, right? The great former offensive coordinator Ernie Zampizi used to say,

if you want to be a good quarterback, coach, get a good quarterback, right? And that's so much of the truth of being a good head coach or anything. You don't see a lot of guys at the top of the rankings in offense, other than Kyle Shane and a couple's that don't have a really good one. So it is hard to separate out. I do think that you can still get a good head coach who is a good play caller. But if that's the primary reason you're doing it, you really run the risk of being disappointed in the leadership front. And finding out that the reason he was so good at calling those plays was because of the guy that was taking a shotgun snap back there, right?

So you better get the culture part right. You better get the personality part right. I want someone who's collaborative, who is open to different ideas. I think that gets some of these guys who are so talented than what they do that they, you know, that they sometimes get stuck in a little bit of a rut. So it's hard. It really is hard. It's always some guy from a top offense, right?

And that's ridiculous. There's got to be a special teams coach from a random team who would be a great head coach, right? So we are going to dig into that a lot on a Wednesday show this week. We're going to talk a lot about the places. we look for coaches, the process that we go through to look for coaches, that is what Wednesday's show is going to be. So I'll dig into that in a couple of days because I think it's fascinating and just how quickly this happens. The rocks that we don't turn over and looking for these guys. And that is a larger conversation. I will say, if I'm thinking about this purely schematically, the guys that I would want calling my offense specifically, I would want somebody with a varied background.

that to me would be the only aspect of this that I would feel comfortable saying I know I want that. I would not want someone who, like Matt Nagy for example, has come from one specific offense for his entire career. I really like guys that have these varied backgrounds that have worked in different systems, that have worked for different coaches. Because coaching at the core of it is problem solving. It is about being able to pivot and shift based on what you're doing well, what you're not doing. well, what your personnel looks like. Nick Siriani is a good example. Nick Siriani worked in several different places, coached several different positions

in route to being the Philadelphia Eagles head coach. Frank Reich is another very good example. He worked in several different systems. He worked for several different coaches. He doesn't come from one specific place. That's what intrigued me about Kevin Stefanski's background when he got hired by the Browns. I like the fact that he had seen a lot of different types of offense. And if I, that's the one thing where it's like, that's, that intrigues me.

That's why somebody like Brian Dable, who has a vast background in coaching different positions and coaching within different offensive systems, that to me is intriguing. Other than that, it's really hard for me to pin down how I would want my head coach to look because I think it's a really difficult question to answer. And it's difficult to really know all of these guys, right? We criticize these teams, but it's hard to really know somebody. and so you fall back on somebody you know. Well, that's not the best process. It's the worst process. And I think that this and I,

we're going to dig into this more on Wednesday's show, but the one thing I wanted to say is that the coaching hiring process is another reminder of how much hubris goes into the processes as it relates to the NFL. It's the same as drafting, right? We crush teams for looking at draft picks, trading up and saying, I knew it. I knew that my conviction was right.

If I didn't get this guy, I was going to be crestfallen. I had to get my guy. You shouldn't hire a coach within like a week of having these conversations. You don't need to. Think about what happened with Frank Reich and the Colts. Josh McDaniels spurned them, and they hired Frank Reich at the end of the process, and he ended up becoming a very good coach. I would sit there and I would flip over every rock.

I would hire, or I would interview 15, 20 people. I would do as much work as I could on these guys. And if somebody else is flying them in on a private jet and being like, I'm going to whine and die in this guy and hire him in the next 48 hours, congratulations. You seem like a great guy. Like, we were interested in you for a reason. Best of luck in that new job.

I would not be scared off by losing the guy that I think is the only option here because that doesn't exist. With you 100% very hard to do. It's very hard to do. You feel like it's almost like you're on the lot and you really want this shiny car. And you got to realize you can come back next weekend. There's going to be other cars. Yes. And the car you thought was the best may not be the best.

But we've all bought that card. You know, we've all had to have that car. There's lots of cars. Just go look on the road. There's tons of cars. Don't just fall in love with one car. Really hard to do. But such great, great advice.

I think Bruce Ariens was somebody who was hired. Totally. Great example. You know, late in the cycle. I actually keep track of that. I'm just looking through my list of guys who, Siriani was the sixth guy hired in a seven person cycle, right? We'll see what happened at Dan Campbell.

He was five of seven. Shoot, Kyle Shanahan was six of six. That was because of the Super Bowl, though, right? Yeah, yeah, you're right. You're right. Hiring date. You're right. that was done in advance.

So yeah, I'm just looking at these off the top of my head. You're right. So that was the technical hiring date. It probably was done sooner. But I don't think there's any trick to doing the first one. Look at how excited the Raiders were to get John Gruden, right? Yeah. I mean, they had to have them.

They weren't going to talk to anybody else. They must have felt so great when they hired him. I mean, Mark Davis just must have been like, yes, we did it. As a Bears fan, that's been one of the most frustrating parts about this, is that these teams can just be so convinced that this is the answer. Challenge yourself. Have some humility with this process. Interrogate what you're thinking is and why.

Don't just jump at the first shiny thing that happens. And I think that is going to be something that serves a lot of these teams well and doesn't happen often enough. And we'll see how much of that happens over the next week. Or if we just get the next most recent batch of successful coordinators on good offenses and those guys sink or swim because it feels like that's how it is every single year. By the way, the Jaguars, I just called this. The Jaguars made Doug Maron the first tire of the cycle, and Urban Meyer the first tire of the cycle.

So there you go for our first tire of cycle guys. I mean, listen, we don't need to have, all we need to say about this entire conversation is at the press conference last year, Sean said this time I got it right. Right? That is, he explicitly said at the press conference, It's last year after hiring or Meyer. This time I got it right.

Every single one of these teams, just think for a second, maybe I'm not getting it right. And think about why you're doing this. Think about the intentionality behind your choices as they relate to the guys you're interviewing, the guys you're thinking about. Why do I want this person to be the head coach? What is the vision? How is this person going to influence the culture? What is their plan schematically? How important is that in the grand scheme of things as you relate to all of these other qualities?

These are the questions to me. I just figuring this out is so, so, so hard. I wouldn't be good at it. I know that I wouldn't be good at it. But I just think that we can go about this differently, smarter, everything else. We're going to talk about that at length on Wednesday's show for now. Really appreciate you joining me, Mike. Always good to chat with you.

I appreciate the time. Great to be here. All right, guys. That's all we got for today. Please check back tomorrow and listen to the mailbag with me and Mitch. If you have not listened to this morning show or Sunday nights show with Nate Tice, breaking down week 18, I highly encourage you guys to do that. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast.

We're getting toward the end of the season. If you liked the show, if you enjoyed it, go ahead. Give us five stars. Leave us a little bit of review. I'd really appreciate that. Please subscribe to the Athletic. If you have not done that before the playoffs, highly encourage you to do it.

Theethnic.com slash football show is where you can do that. We'll be back tomorrow. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. Talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.