The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - NFL Mock Draft Scenarios: Picks 25 to 19

Episode Date: March 26, 2024

In the second installment of their 2024 mock draft, Robert Mays and Nate Tice ponder the decisions waiting for the teams holding the picks between 25 and 19 (The Packers, Cowboys, Vikings, Eagles, Dolphins, Steelers and Rams). With Robert on the ground in Florida at the NFL’s annual meeting, they also discuss the league moving to ban hip drop tackles and the Chiefs trading L'Jarius Sneed to the Titans. Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Join me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? Doing well. Thought I was outside of sweatshirt weather, like full-on hoodie weather, back in it here in

Vegas, which was unexpected. But it was great. It went to San Diego this weekend for a day, and it rained in San Diego the entire time. So I went away from good weather to go to San Diego, which is not. Not a lot of times you can say that, but actually had a good time in San Diego, but just saying that I chased rain to San Diego. I never thought I would say that. I like that you say that with that city. There was a bit with my friends for a very long time where whenever I would go anywhere, the weather would be terrible.

We went to Hawaii, the four of us, my senior high school, was like a little friend's trip before we graduated. And there was a tornado on the island for the first time in like 40 years. And so my friends always attributed to the fact that wherever I went, there was bad weather. So that was the reputation that I had for a long time. I am in Florida right now at the NFL owners meetings. And it's my first time at the owners meetings. And you can tell that I was a newbie. Even though it has nothing to do with never attending this event,

it's just about like being a person and understanding the weather is different in different places. But I was wearing like a cardigan yesterday and it was 80 degrees. And walking through the hotel, I'm just dripping sweat. And I get there and sandos in like a very light button down shirt, and shorts. And I was like, yeah, you know what you're doing. I don't know what I'm doing. You can tell that this is my first go around. So I'm just dripping sweat as I'm trying to have conversations with my coworkers. I'm a really impressive person. I'm always put together. You know that about me. Is that the breakers? No, no. It's in Orlando. So they shift the location.

Oh, it's in Orlando. Okay. Pretty much every single year. Sometimes it's in the Biltmore in Arizona. Sometimes it's at the breakers in Palm Beach. And this year, it's in the at the Ritz Carlton in Orlando. So it's good event. I'm glad I'm here, but sometimes you just misjudge what you should be wearing in March, considering I came from a place where it snowed on Saturday. Or going to San Diego, like, I know, I'm not going to complain about like 48 degree weather, especially coming from, you know, growing up in the Midwest and knowing what the weather can be in March. I get it. That's why spring break exists and spring break trips exist. But going to San Diego, I was not expecting 40 degree weather. Thank God I checked before I left because it was like, that would have been

of a real miserable Nate Tice. We're very cranky boy already. We're both just crushing it. Oh my God. So angry. Great show. We have an awesome show, guys. It's going to be so,

it's positive from here on out. Don't worry. Don't worry. No more complaints about weather. If you guys missed the last version of this, we're going to do our second iteration of our mock draft scenarios today. We did picks 32 through 26 last Monday. Today we are going to do 25 through 19.

So we're not going to chunk of these out, every single week, essentially up until the draft, going to try to talk about every single pick in the first round and the thinking that's going to go into it. Before we do that, though, I wanted to hit some of the news that came out today from the owner's meetings. The big thing that dropped earlier this morning is that as these teams are voting on rule changes and all the other stuff that goes down at these meetings,

the hip-drop tackle penalization was unanimously passed today by the owners. So hip-drop tackles are now a part of NFL legislation. The language is nebulous at best. We'll see how this goes moving forward, but the last part of the rule, if a defender unwates himself by twisting and swiveling and landing on a player's legs or feet.

Rich McKay, who is a part of the competition committee and handle some of this stuff, he was very adamant today. It's like, it's not all hip drop tackles. It's the swivel hip drop tackle. So that's what we're dealing with here. I'm not sure that's going to alleviate some of the problems that a lot of people

are foreseeing with this when we get into the season. Yeah, I'm fine with the intent of the rule and to protect the players. I'm fine with that. I like that a lot. I use that word fine with intent, by the way. But my issues, as always with the NFL, comes with the rulemakers and the rule enforcers. This is a who watches the watchman situation for me.

So, yeah, NFL refs, they didn't have a banner ear last year. This is a tough situation for you. It's the meme where the guy is lingering over the button and just, sweating. It's like, do I want players to be safe or do I want rough staff have to make more decisions? For you specifically, it's particularly bad. I like the intent. I do. But,

okay, yeah, we're giving ref more responsibility, which I'm always going to be e-iffy about. And the thing that Rich McKay can't just come out and just go boom, boom, boom, this is what the rule is. And there's differences with his terms and even what was written. That's already a big red, red alert going on for me. Fine with the intent. But again, the NFL has

proven to botch these things. So that that is kind of where I'm just going back and forth with it. If it ends up being a kind of lowering the crown of the helmet type penalty where it's like it happens once a year, maybe twice a year, they bump it up. Okay, that's fine. All right. They saved those. Those really bad ones that, okay, of course, those strike out there or stick out there.

And that's why we have to penalize though, those. But McKay was saying that there's about one of these a year or one of these a game that they want to force a game. Okay. There's 200 and how many games? 272 regular season games. There were 265 15-yard penalties last year. I'm counting clipping,

chop block, face mask, horse collar, illegal blindside block, rough in the past, or unnecessary roughness, learning to initiate contact, and tripping. I'm not including special teams, and I'm not including defensive pass interference. I'll talk about that in a second. But that's about 370.

There's 265 of those last year. We're asking about one a game, 272 games. Are we doubling our 15-yard penalties? And you can say it's one a game, one a game, 15-yard penalty, automatic first down. That is a first-down and a half plus an automatic first-down. You're effectively giving another team an automatic first-down and a half plus an automatic first-down, plus an automatic first-down, plus-down, so if we will go with that, that's huge. That's two-and-a-half effective first-downs you're giving.

That's a big penalty that could change games depending on when it happens. It could be a two-yard loss that turns into an automatic first-down, 15-yard gain on a third and three or something like that. And I don't want to be kind of like, oh, this is going to affect every single game. come up. It'll probably happen in the preseason. We'll go nuts about it and then we'll forget about it by October until it comes up on a Monday night game or until it comes up in the playoffs or something like that. For me, it's more just the execution of this. And once we get into the fine aspect of this, that is where I do have a little bit of issues. Justin Lasgata did a great job, kind of like, wow, let's turn the pot. He covers the Packers for Espionage.

The fine part of this is important because you mentioned the head lowering of the crown of the helmet. That's where that has come into play, where players. are just getting 20 grand out of their checks every single week without it ever being a penalty. So I think that's a slippery slope here. I will say there's been some mixed messaging on the frequency of this. So McKay was talking about how there's been an uptick in these. There's like a 65% increase from last year, whatever. I'm reading a tweet from Jory Epstein from Yahoo right now that came out last week.

And she says, McKay at that point said it happens once per week, not once per game. So I wonder like where this is falling right now. So if it's closer to once per week, then I think it's more reasonable. Here's where I land on this because I'm typically less, there's less panic on my side of this than some people bring to rule changes. Because I'm old enough to remember back in, I don't remember the exact year, but I was covering the league. It was probably 2013, 2014, when the defenseless receiver penalties started becoming a thing. And so many people at that moment are like, ah, it's flag football. What are we doing here?

You're not even going to let the defenders play. And guess what? The game is more malleable than people give it credit for. Players adapt, players learn. So I think this idea of like, what are defensive players supposed to do? That part of it is overblown. My concern is mostly in how we're going to legislate this in real time and what that ends up looking like.

And we've seen layers of this with other penalties that the league is already trying to correct for along with the hip-drop tackle thing and this has gotten less pub just because it's not as sexy, this idea that now. they're going to have the replay official be able to look at roughing the pastor penalties and intentional grounding penalties from the booth and try to fix those in real time. So if we're offsetting the issue of being able to legislate this in real time with more power for the replay official to fix stuff and get it right, if that's the way that we're trending, I think that we can get to a place where this makes sense.

It makes it harder for defensive players. Undoubtedly, it makes it harder. But if this is really a once-a-week sort of thing and we can get it. get to a place where we're probably going to land on the right calls in the end and guys aren't getting fined a ridiculous amount and way too often. I just think it's less impactful than people are making it out to be in real time because there's always the concern of are we making football not football anymore. And I think that's typically overblocked. I think it's totally overbond. The whole like, oh, we can't tackle them. If it comes up once a week and say just it's about

20, we'll call it 20. That sounds more right than once a game though, right? I can't envision this happening once a game, like these sorts of tackles. I couldn't either. So that's why I saw that stat. I saw several tweets reference it. That's why the only reason I dove into my stats right there was like, I was like, hey, this is what we're calling it. Holy crap.

That's a lot. But if we're saying once a week, give or twice a week, if there's an uptick because of course the rest are going to be looking at it. I don't know. Like I said, that's more like lowering the head. That's more like a, oh, we're going to emphasize clipping more. Like, oh, okay, that one way, not been called five years ago, but now it's called. Like, you know, kind of those things, those wave away.

you're a great point about the replay official, but I also just want to get all that's being said. This is one of these things that I think it's not going to really be as much of an impact on our lives other than the one crazy one on a national TV game, but then becomes a big deal again. That's my prediction. I think that's right.

That is my option. And then, but the fine aspect, I think, is bullshit from the NFL. To retroactively find these players and say, yeah, that was actually a penalty that we missed. No, you can't do that. You can't say both sides of your mouth say, our refs are going to be emphasizing this and going to be looking for this in real time, especially when it's on the ball.

The guy is tackling them and all the rest of the eyes are going to be on the ball of the guy that's getting tackled. Okay, we can't say that. And then afterwards go like, oh, two days later, guess what that actually was one? I just don't think that's right. I think the NFLPA should be pushing back on that hard. And I know they can't. They don't have a lot of power relative to other unions. But really, to me, that is just something that I'm like, oh, that's, that's really not right to me.

Because especially if they're going to make it a point of emphasis. I 100% agree with that. And I think the lowering of the helmet and how that has been legislated with all the fines that have come down from it, I do think that's wrong. So I'm with you. And if we can find a middle ground where the fines aren't overdone and we get to a point where we think it's not affecting games in an overt way, I think that's the most important landing point. Because I understand where the league is coming from on this. The degree of injury that happens with these plays are intense. But you're asking a lot.

It's like one of four, right? And just think anecdotally, like the Logan Thomas play on Mark Andrews last year is the most. recent example, like, there is a way he can make that play without falling on the back of his legs. That is possible. And I do think that defenders are more flexible than we tend to give them credit for in these moments, even if objectively, we are making it harder on that. But this idea of like every rule is against the defense, teams couldn't score last year. Lowest scoring in 20 years. We're overstating like how much this is a transformative thing for the sport. And I think that similar to all the other rule changes that have been implemented over however long,

we will find our way through this in the same way we found our way through everything else. The rules make people adapt. They do. And they make things adapt to see it time and time and time and time again. Doesn't matter what the rules. The three point line of basketball, the headhunting one that you brought up, the legal contact stuff. The legal contact rule changes in the early 2000s, the emphasis, I should say. After the Patriots whooped the Colts ass has made corner play better than it's ever been.

because it made these corners be even better and movement-wise and understanding routes and all the match coverage stuff. Like that had repercussions for the benefit of the defense. They ended up playing better because they had to do it in different ways because it got harder for them. So like you said, again, I just don't, we don't know what the frequency of these are going to be, but that's what to me is how it's going to go. But again, I just think the fine stuff is just where it's, eh. But again, again, again, I think it's going to be something that they adapt to. I'm sure we will never talk about this again because I'm sure it won't come up at any sort of high profile moment.

It's going to be like a Packers, like Cowboys, Monday night game, Sunday night game. It'll be right before we go into a show. That's how it always goes. The other bit of news I wanted to hit today is something that came down this weekend that we have not gotten to touch on in any other capacity is the wagerious need trade going from the Chiefs to the Titans for a 2025 third round pick and a new four-year $76 million deal with $55 million in total guarantees. when you saw the return on this, what was your first reaction? Oh, I was like, okay, so the third, oh, wait, what year is that?

The draft pick was, that was, seriously, that was my first thought. I was like, 2025, oh, that kind of threw me through a loop for a second. That was my first thought on all of this. I thought after the Chris Jones deal happened, that they were going to make this work or they were going to write it out this year.

I just thought, just maybe this was the chiefs kind of pushing for this year and then reconfiguring next year and then dealing with Sneed. That's what I thought. That was my bet going into this. So the fact that this trade happened, that was the return. I was picturing a second, but I feel like now I've learned my lesson about trade value with certain guys in the NFL that I got deflated about a round from what I've been

anticipating with a lot of these things. So I don't know. I really just understand how it came to it, but it just didn't feel like the returns matched the player. But then I also understand the corner position, the age, and what the guy's about. to get paid. So I understand why it gets deflated like that. Just felt like the chiefs should maybe squeezed it when we're here. You look at it, they have, with Sneed off the books, the tag is about 19.19.8 million. So they're going to go to like $25 million in cap space, and that's before they

have to sign all their draft picks. That seems like, well, why would you need the cap space this year? Well, most of the free agents have already been signed. Well, sort of. They still don't have a starting left tackle. There are still a couple spots that they could potentially fill. And also, if you look at next year, they have $48 million in cap space for 2025. Here are some of the guys that are hitting free agency for the chiefs heading into next season. Justin Reed, Creed Humphrey, Trace Smith, Nick Bolton, Charles and Menahue. They're a ton of guys that they're probably going to want to end up signing. Mahomes' cap hit a $66 million next year, and they can, with a swipe of the pen, get that down.

But you're looking at some pretty big salaries that you're handing out next season for the chief. So whatever cap space you can roll over, I think, is worth taking into consideration. The side of this that I want to get in front of, 2025 third round pick. So everyone responding with, well, why wouldn't they just try to get the comp pick and let him walk in free agency? We're overdoing this, guys.

You have to sit out the highest level of free agency to get that third round compick. And some teams are doing that, right? Like the Vikings had so many guys that they got signed away this year. They're going to get a couple of compics. We're going to talk about that later. The chiefs typically make like one big splash

in free agency almost every single. a year. They're not a team like Baltimore who plays the comp pick game consistently every single season. Chuan Taylor, Justin Reed, they do about one a year. And so they're, these, this idea of every time you let a free agent walk, you're going to get a third or fourth round compick. We have to stop doing this. It's just not how it works. I didn't realize how much, how much modern fans have clung on to this until last year with the bills, because we were praising the bills and all those singles and doubles moves they made. And people were coming at me and going, you like that move, that's going to cost him a comp pick.

It's like, Deonti, trust me, guys, that's not going to cost you anything. It's going to work out, like, totally fine. Like, because the Emmett, they let Edmins go, and so they needed a little bit of a little backwash. And they still got a fourth-thrown compick for Edmonds in the end. So, yeah, it was supposed to be a third and people were upset about that. But I think that part of it is overblown.

And I think with the Sneed value specifically, the contract is the important part of this. Is that any team trading firm who's going to have to give him that deal because he was going to have all the leverage in a negotiation. And teams are hesitant to pay corners. We've seen this. And with Sneed specifically, I think there are a couple things to take into account. Yes, he was one of the best corners in the league last year, but it was his first year playing

at that level, even if he was an ascending player before that. So I think that's worth taking into account. He's 27. This is not a guy hitting free agency at 24 or 25, and I think the age with corners specifically is going to start becoming more of a conversation the same way it is with other positions. They fall off a cliff at 30, and even on the way to 30, the year-to-year production at that position is more volatile than it is in other spots. So you're giving a guy, it was $55 million in guarantees is first reported by Jordan Schultz. We'll see how much of that is total guarantees and how much of that is full guarantees.

But let's say it's $50 million guaranteed for the sake of conversation. That's two full years, essentially, guaranteed for a corner who has some issues potentially medically with that knee that everyone is talking about, and it's his age 27 and 28 season that you're fully guaranteeing. There's a chance this is a home run for the Titans. If Ligerius Smead is the player he was last year for the next two years for Tennessee, you'll do this every single time. But I think there were questions from other teams about whether or not that level of play would be able to continue for age and health reasons and just the nature of the position. And I think that's ultimately why it gets driven down to the degree that it was.

that's it it's volatile i think everyone's kind of realizing that i think the cop picks and the uh volatiness uh volatility of corners comp picks pressure to sack rate i think these are all the things everyone's put like everyone's kind of beating into being a dead horse this off season i feel like i maybe i've just on football twitter a little too much that i see these terms getting thrown i do like that overall the conversation has gotten smarter but there are corners that we just have to clean up a little bit I think that's my only issue here. And just change it up a little bit. Just change it up every once in a while.

But, no, but I think too, because corners are, and you see this in combat sports too, is that they rely on quick twitch. So it's why you see lighter fighters age quicker or age faster. They drop off a clip faster because they rely more, rely more on quick twitch. I was not expecting that comparison to come up on this show. Well, that's why corners fall in quick.

That's why it happens. They rely, they rely on reaction. They rely on their athletic, and burst, it's not like you can age gracefully as a corner. Not usually. You can bump into maybe safety or slot based on to be athletic, but it's because that's what they rely on those athleticism, a quick twitch thinking and all that, all that responsive time. God, I'm just all over the place of my words.

Response time as well I was trying to say there. But I also think that it's why heavy weights age better is because, and that's why offense alignment probably age better too. It's just a little correlation with weight. We're everyone remember weights. We're hung up on height. get hung up on weight, weight in arm light. That's why I'm fighting sports focus on that.

They don't, they didn't care of Mike Tyson's six foot. So it's like, no, he's a heavyweight. This is what his reach is. The same thing. It's the, this is what football is. But, no, but I think the sneeze stuff is like, it's not like Tervarius Ward, you know, the signing that happened for the 49ers, which felt more like a splurge and like, okay, this is going to put us over the top with our defense.

There are a total, 49ers were looking to compete. 49ers had other pieces on the defense, had more of a complete team. That felt like, again, like a cherry on top. The Titans are kind of this weird straddle of being aggressive and acquiring talent, but I think it's just to figure out what the hell they have with Levis, and I actually kind of like some of that. So before we get to that, I want to talk about the Chavarius Ward thing on two fronts. One, Charverius Ward is four months younger now than Ligerius Nita's.

Today, he is four months younger than Ligerius Nita. So that's worth pointing out. And two, I think Charverius Ward walking is a good sign and a good thing to remember with the Chiefs. They have not paid the defensive backs. They have let the defensive backs go. That is typically what they have done. They have taken their chances in the draft again because they've done such a good job of developing these guys year over year

that I think they're willing to say, we're going to try to find the next one. Rather than paying $20 million a year for a 27-year-old cornerback, we're going to try to find the next one. The Titans side of this, I'm with you. I was not anticipating this sort of offseason from the Tennessee Titans. I just wasn't. I just was not expecting them to come in and be like, you know what?

We're going to push our chips into the middle here. We're going to be the biggest spenders of the offseason. Look at what they've done. Ligerious Sneed, Chidobio Woosier, Lloyd Cushenberry is one of the highest paid centers in the league now, and they were the team that splurged on Calvin Ridley. So I don't really know what to make of this. And yeah, they paid Tony Pollard. That's like, whatever.

Like that's starting running back money. That to me was just like, well, that was like their first move. It was. And I was like, oh, okay, whatever. The running backs all happened on the same. day, which if you ever need to, if you're ever curious how tampering in the NFL works, it's as one domino falls. It's like one of the three receivers.

I want to say 2014 all signed the same day for the same money. That was a Des Bryant. It was Des Bryant, Julio and AJ Green. I think, that's right. That's right. Yeah, because I think I just got with Atlanta when that happened. But that was the same thing. They all got announced on the same day.

And they're all within like $200,000 of each other. It's like, wow, they came together with that quick. Wow, the fax machine works quick. I don't know how you guys do that. so quickly. Wow, that's crazy. And I'm wondering what to make of this. Is this a we believe in Will Levis thing? Is this a we want to be competitive thing? I don't know exactly where I land on the messaging that's being sent from the moves that the Titans have made. The glass-happed full, like where I'm like, hey, they got their shit together and they have a plan here is that, hey, we're getting answers

for Will Levis. This is going to let us like either get a ramp off for him and then whoever we bring in, it's got a nice setting and it got a nice situation. Because, now they can use their top 10 pick on another offense alignment. Now they don't need to go receiver, which I, with the Calvin, uh, Calvin Ridley thing, which is something I kind of, that was like even in the moment, we were kind of like, okay, okay, like, you know, okay, I understand what you're doing. You're helping out your quarterback.

And now you can draft a lineman. So if they move on from Levis, it's a better situation for that, but also it can maybe give you an answer on Levis a little quicker than maybe some other younger quarterbacks. That's, that's the optimistic view, I think. Legerius, or Calvin Ridley is 30. like the timeline on that. So you paid a 30 year old receiver.

DeAndre Hopkins is in his 30s. So even if, and I'm with you on that. And I think like so I said glass half full. I'm not saying I believe in it. Talking to this, I think it's helpful. So let's look at the Bears, for example, right? So Keenan Allen's 32. The Bears probably aren't winning the Super Bowl this year.

But I think the argument for Keenan Allen is, you know Caleb Williams is your guy. Like you're trying to allow him, give him the best chance of success. And so, but I get that. It's like, even if he's only on the roster, for this year and poll said some weird stuff today about extending him. That I can understand a little bit more because it's like, we have the cap space here's $23 million, even if it's a one-year thing.

We only gave up a fourth round pick to give the number one pick in the draft, a guy we're absolutely committed to the best chance to succeed. Calvin Ridley is a multi-year thing for the Titans. I mean, you're paying him for the next two years. So if this doesn't work out with Levis and you're having to move on from him and try to get another quarterback at 2025, now Ridley is going to be 31 inexpensive. So I just, I don't totally understand the timeline, even if I get what you're trying to pick at there. If you gave me a, like, what I would think that the Titans were going to do this offseason.

This would have been like ninth on my ranking. Oh, yeah, splurge and trade and freaking fire away. Hey, rookie quarterback contract, right? Push, push, push. But maybe that's it. Like that was, but maybe that's it. Maybe that's how they see it. Maybe that is their thinking.

And that you never know. That's the thing is like that might be the incentive. they might, and we don't know, maybe like Rand goes in there and Calhane goes, I freaking love Levis. He is our guy and we just don't know that from the outside. You just don't know what their internal thinking is on this. Maybe they have owner pressure. Maybe the owner goes, hey, build a winning roster. We have money.

Do it now. You just don't know, again, what the pressure comes from. Because typically a lot of these receiver pairings that we've had with highly drafted quarterbacks where you're trying to make sure let's get everything we can out of this guy that we drafted in the first couple rounds. And we've seen success with that. Teams have done that consistently over the last five years. Stefan Diggs, D.J. Moore, A.J. Brown.

All those guys are in their mid-20s. So now you have that guy on the roster at cost control. So let's say you do have to move on from the quarterback in the way that the Bears did, for example. DJ Moore works for the next guy. He's 26 years old. He's under contract. The Titans, that's not the case with the receivers that they have acquired and the receivers they have on the roster.

So I don't think it's necessarily a one-for-one comparison. I'm just curious what their thinking is and ultimately what's going to have. in there, but I think right now we probably have more questions that we have answers. All right, let's get to this mock draft situation, starting at Picked 25. Just a reminder, we're going through just the scenarios and the potential thoughts about where these teams could go, what their needs are, what sort of players might be available in this range, what have they done in free agency? How is that going to influence what their thought process looks like as they move toward

the draft? So, picking 25th, we have the Green Bay Packers. Let's start with the needs that you see for Green Bay. Where would you start with where the weak points on that roster are in your mind? Originally, I was really looking at DB and safety was won, but as I've really looked at the roster and the makeup and who has left this offseason, I think offensive tackle is where, especially where they're slotted in the first round makes a lot of sense for them. I would say the other need that this team has is maybe a younger running back, but I think that's a day two or later addition. I think, yeah, it shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, but running back, there's not a lot of running backs considered in the top 50.

Trey Benson from Florida State was the only one that made my top 50, and that was all in the 40s. So these are second round or later types of guys. But looking at the other positions, if you look at safety, same kind of thing. It's a weak safety draft. So other than our mascot for this offseason, Cooper DeGine, I think that is, you know, he can play safety. And again, that was someone I brought up at the combine that, like, that I really like when

teams can and the Packers are good at this usually. of straddling the now and the future. That's idealistically team building. That's what you want to do. Dejean makes sense to me in the sense that he can, what position is he best at? Well, he can go safety. And then if he has to go to outside corner,

when something happens there, if I, Alexander, in a couple of years, they move on from that. Boom, you can have him outside corner. That's, I just see that being a nice fit. And that's also kind of where he's being slotted, like as a consensus right now.

But I've looked at all this. And I just keep coming back to tackle. Just because they've lost Bakhtiari, Yashini Nyman is, off to a greater, greener things, greater, hopefully some more sustained success in Carolina. And hopefully I could just watch a little bit more film rather than him rotate at left tackle, like the Packers did this year.

But this is a great spot to get a tackle, especially how the Packers like to do things and build these guys along. I mean, shoot, if Troy Foughtnew is here from Washington, that is a guy that I see that all five spots could play there. But, you know, I think he might go before this. But if you like a Marius Mims from Georgia, who's more of a project-y, but a super high upside offensive attack,

I have him way up there. I think a few of us do as a top 15 type prospect, but teams might be afraid of his medical. So you might drop a little bit right here in the Packers 25. That might be a sweet spot for him. Tyler Guyton is another interesting athlete. He's a tackle from Oklahoma. And then the guy I prefer a little bit more if you're talking about more of the project guys is Kingsley, Suamata Ia. Yes, Suamata Ia because I'm going to be saying his name a few times on the show. So I might as well practice it now. But he's from BYU. I really like his upside. I'm a big fan of his. I have him on my big board in the early 20s, 25 here. It makes a lot of sense to me. Another guy that can maybe play this year, but they can

build along because they have other guys on the roster, like Rashid Walker, that can play there for now, but hopefully get injected some real tough. So Rashid Walker, I think, acquitted himself well last year, but I think there's no sense in not looking for an upgrade, especially when you don't have a ton of glaring holes elsewhere on the roster at premium positions that you would spend a first round pick on. So left tackle is the first place that I went. Is there going to be an upgrade on Walker available at 25. The answer might be yes. Sue Matia, who we talked about last week,

we were talking about him near the back half of the first round. If the run on maybe that upper echelon of tackles, the Tyler Guttons and the Ameris mimses, if that's already happened, we talked about Jordan Morgan from Arizona, the guy from BYU, potentially being there for the Ravens and the Chiefs. But if the Packers think this is the spot

where we can get an upgrade on what we have, maybe he goes a little bit earlier. So I'm with you on left tackle. I also think guard is potentially in play. so they lose John Runny and free agency. You know, they have that normal runway of third, fourth round picks that they often use on interior offensive linemen. So Sean Ryan, guys like that, that they could potentially plug in, but do they want somebody that they think is an upgrade over that level of player that they have on the roster? The thing about tackle that I find interesting with the Packer specifically is they haven't spent high draft picks at the position for the most part over the last decade or so.

They haven't spent a first round pick on an offensive lineman in 13 years. and it was Derek Sherrod in 2011. Yeah, that's right. I was actually trying to think who there was last one. They've done it in the second round, though. Jason Myers is a second round pick. Jason Spriggs was the second round pick. So I don't know if that's just, and also part of the reason

they're not spending high picks on offensive linemen is they had tackles that were mainstays for a long time. I mean, Bakhtiari was there for a long time. Chad Clifton was there for a long time. So you don't have to spend first round picks on guys when you have pro-bow caliber starters there for extended stretches. So I don't know if that's an organization. organizational mindset thing or if that's just the way that the draft has fallen for them over the

last 10 to 15 years. But I agree with you on left tackle and I also think guard. I'm with, I think safety though is definitely something they still have to consider. Even after signing Xavier McKinney and free agency, I mean, the two other guys at that other safety spot right now are Anthony Johnson, who was a seventh round pick last year and Benny Sapp. That's what we're talking about. You know, they signed Keishaw Nixon to a reasonable deal to be their nickel corner, but it still feels like they need another safety somewhere along the way. I'll say right now before the draft show, if there's a safety gone before pick 40, that's an egregious reach.

That is my estimate of the safety position right now. I just do not think there is any guy. I have one guy in my top 50, and I don't think I'm alone on this, because especially how these guys are testing that were up there, Tower Nubin from Minnesota. Like they're not testing overwhelming guys, Jaden Hicks from Washington State. So it's really a lot more day two-ish. eyes to that position. So it's like that, that's why it stinks for them that they have a need there, but it's like, you don't want to reach that high for a spot. But the nice part about this is,

they have 41 from the Jets, they have 58, they have 88, and they have 91. They have an extra third round pick from the bills. They have five picks in the top 100. So if they want to find some depth at some of these spots somewhere along the way, they absolutely can. And that applies to interior offensive line. And it also applies to linebacker because linebacker is still a need. They're move into an even front, which Jeff Affle is the defensive coordinator, so they're going to need three off-ball linebackers that they can trot out there. And right now, they have about one and a half. So safety tackle and linebacker are probably the three spots that I would go. And because they have so many picks that they've acquired, I think they're well positioned to address a lot of that.

I do too. And that's, again, that's why I think the plan for them is, they're still a wolf team, a Ron Wolf team in their thinking, which is trenches first and size and speed first. And so that's to me, it's like, I think it slots nicely because the needs that they have, safety, linebacker, running back. That's all day two where there's a glut of those guys. So, and then here it's like, oh, tackle. We can get a guy at 24 or 25, I'm sorry, that mostly would usually go in the top 15. Like, they can find a little bit of value there. I think they're set up pretty nicely for this draft.

That's what happens when you nail a draft or a couple drafts in a row and you have the youngest team in the league. And to make the playoffs, they're set up very nicely in Green Bay. I had a conversation last night while I was down here that I, you know, when you think about, you step back and think about it. It seems self-evident, but I don't spend a lot of time to think about it in these terms. We're at the owner's meetings, right? And think about how many bad decisions are made because of ownership. There's the whims of an owner, the impatience of an owner. And the fact that the Packers don't have one, it allows them to operate more in a vacuum than pretty much any other team in the NFL. Because we always want to apply that level of thinking to this, right? It's like, okay, if you remove yourself from illogical, irrational thinking, what decisions would you make over a five to 10 year period? If you can always take the long view, we know the optimal decisions that you can make. Well, the Packers are in a spot where they can do that. They can always take the long view because there's no one in an office upstairs being like, oh, no, you have to do this. You have to do this because we have to sell this many tickets. And I think that's what brings you to a place where they

were at the bottom of the league in cash spending last year, the bottom five, they won a playoff game, they push the Niners in San Francisco, and somehow they have five picks in the top 90 again. It's fucking annoying. As a team that roots for a team in this division, it is annoying the fact that they always seem to be doing this. And it's so frustrating because no team will ever be able to be run like this, ever, ever again. Like, it's just like their own little world that gets operated. And I have people ask me about that. Like, oh, well, the Packers do this. They sit their quarterback for three years. It's like, yeah, they can. You don't think like ownership goes, hey, or a team president goes, hey, look at that Brock Oswald. Why don't we give him a run?

That drew lock. Like, you know, you get, oh, man, we really like that second rounder. My son, I don't know why that, I don't know why that name came to my mind. It's like, I'm blaming John Elway. He's not even an owner. But it's like, you know, but that's what happens. The politics that happened. You might have some owner that made you take that guy on day two. And they're like, yeah, you know, I watched that guy in the SEC. Why don't we give him a chance? Let me give him a chance. We don't like the other guy anyways. Just never know how that works out.

The other thing looming for this team, and what Brian Guggoonst was addressed it today, and this is going to be the biggest question for the Packers after the draft is over. When does the Jordan Love extension happen and what does it look like? Because they have $22 million in cap space right now if they wanted to potentially sign another stopgap safety, whatever the second, third wave of free agency looked like. But the financial situation with this team is about to drastically change in the next 12 months. So any sort of cap space figures in 2024 and 2025 matter a little bit less for them because of what's coming down the line. Yeah, speaking of owners, let's get to the Dallas Cowboys here at 24.

Before we get into the actual nuts and bolts of this, I want to step back and just have like a general Cowboys conversation. Because what is happening right now with Jerry Jones's public messaging? What he is saying, none of it makes sense. Like everything he is saying right now sounds like absolute gibberish. me. Did you see today? There were pictures of him just drawing scribbles all over that, no pad. I just don't know what is going on there. Given the chance to back off of this a little bit, he reiterated the All In thing today. And what they've tried to twist it now, they try to twist it and say, well, All In is like maintaining the core of players that we have. That's what All In

means for us. So Pang, Dak, Prescott, Cedley Lamb and Michael Parsons, that's all in for the cowboys. I just don't understand this. And they're sitting here complaining about, well, you know, the salary cap and we can't spend that much and we got to do more with less because of the salary cap. Your quarterback is a $55 million cap hit right now because you're not getting out in front of this enough. CD Lamb has an $18, $19 million cap hit right now in the fifth year option because you didn't extend him a year ago or two years ago when you could have. Now you're bumping up against the Justin Jefferson thing. So why would he possibly sign an extension?

Every single thing they're complaining about is something that in some way was self-inflicted. I just have no sympathy for how they're looking at this. Being like, oh, you know, it's tough on us. We got to pay our own guys. This is how it works. Teams all over the league have expensive stars that they manage to pay and they still maintain flexibility and aggressiveness when they have a window to try to win football games. Somehow you are the team that can't manage this.

The thing is too is that they, like Jerry for all, Jerry Jones, for all the kind of like stigma about him everything, he rewards his players and coaches really well. Like he's really good about the Cowboys kind of family. He might make you work out from people taking a tour, you know, like a circus freak. But he also like he really does take care of you. But I think that it's shocking to me. that he wants to take care of his guys. He wants to reward him.

Do it early. Why are you waiting? You know, you can do all these discussions a year early. Wouldn't that show that you believe of them more, that you're paying them before the quote-unquote breakout, that we identify that you're an important part of our team? Even the messaging is so easy to sell. Yeah, they'll never make sense.

Talk about, yeah, we just talked about the Packers. The Cowboys are in their own world, too. I wonder if he feels burnt because of what happened with J-1-Smith and Zeeke. So he paid those guys earlier than he had. to and it ended up becoming a disaster. But ever since then, what has happened with some of these extensions, they did this to themselves with DAC.

By letting him play on the tag and giving him all this leverage, they put themselves in this situation. So I just don't understand it. I've said this to somebody recently when I was looking at the way that they haven't spent, the way that they've operated,

in my mind, the best thing that this team could have done coming into this offseason. I think DAC is a $29 million-based salary. If you were a real team, if you were operating like the Packers operate, You would have come into this offseason, gone to DAC and be like, listen, it's time for us to kind of take a step back. You know, we're in a period of transition.

Tyron's moving on. Zach's getting a little bit older. You know, we're going to build this thing around CD and Zach. Is there a place where you'd want to get traded to? He's like 30, 31. That, if you were operating in an optimal way, that's what they should have done organizationally. Rather than letting it go this far with another extension where he's sitting here on a $55 million cap hit that doesn't allow you to add talent to your roster. I just don't understand it.

I don't understand any aspect of it. It's just, it's so glaring that all these moves are about to happen. It's the same with stuff with the Jags. It's like, you know you can do this, right? You know you're able to do this. Like, we know the options. You should know the options. You actually should have more information to make these moves.

So yeah, it's a self-facill, what's a worst way of self-fulfilled prophecy? Self-fulfilled, like, bed of shit. Yeah, that's kind of what it feels like right now. So what's so poetic. I'm professional writer. Let's get to these needs because the needs are glaring. If you look at the roster, there are spots where it's like they absolutely need to do something over the next six months or so because they can't really feel the competent offense right now. And I would start with the offensive line.

Right now as it currently sits, if they move Tyler Smith to left tackle, which we can talk about the prudency of that, Tyler Bass and Brock Hoffman right now are slated to start at left guard and center respectively if they end up moving Tyler. Smith to left tackle. So whatever you want to do with how you're moving these pieces around, you got at least one, probably two, needs for a starting caliber offensive linemen at one of these positions. Yep. And that's where the, that's exactly what I said that they should do in the first round. I think there shouldn't look anywhere else, especially where they're slotted right now and where the players that are projected to them, interior offensive line especially, a guy that could play center especially. And guess what? There are a couple of guys there that actually might make sense for them. Jackson Powers Johnson from Oregon makes a lot of sense. I think he's

going to need a little bit time to really, you know, use all of his gifts and use all of his traits, but his mindset is great. I think he's a little wild horse. So you get Zach Martin next to him. They'll calm him down maybe a little bit. And I think that would be good. But even if Senator doesn't work out, I think left guard he can fill in too, because he has size and athleticism and stuff. So I'd like that versatility. So that guy of Graham Barton. How do you feel about moving Smith to left tackle, though? I thought he was fine as it as a rookie. So I, Actually, I thought his upside would be at left tackle. I actually was, I thought I liked him at guard, but I thought he could maintain or

I could be a long-term start at left tackle because he had to step in for tiring as a rookie. And I actually thought he was pretty good. I know there are some people that didn't agree, but I thought he was good. But he's just even better at guard. That's my thing. To me, it's not about whether he can do it. I just hate when we have these guys who turn into elite players at one position. And then you think, eh, we'll just move them.

Well, we'll just move them and then figure it out. I just think it makes you worse at two positions unnecessarily. Maybe it's harder to find tackles, but it depends on how they fill it. If they can draft a tackle in the first round, I love that. If they can get a guy that they think could slot there, then yeah, it keeps Smith at left guard. And also it could be one of those things. Ah, is this guy best at left tackle, left guard?

You go through camp. It's going to need investment in time to figure out your best five, too. So, no, I think Smith still has upside at tackle. And I still think you could be a good tackle. Again, I thought he was pretty good as a rule. rookie who wasn't great, but he's pretty good. He's just easier a guard, especially with his skill set. And of course, I think he has some of his blemishes got hidden.

So TBD, I guess is a long-term answer, but I still think he'd be fine. I think it's just whatever guy is there for them that they think is best on their board. That's where they're slotted. That's where they're slotted at because there's tackles that are going to be there. Like, oh, man, if, God, Follatonu, had to change how Troy Follatano from Washington were there, they should sprint up. and take him because he has five position upside up along the offensive line.

That I think it would be their home run if they didn't move up or do anything, which I don't encourage them to move out. The other spots, just looking at other needs that they have, probably stuff that they can get a little bit later, right? We talked about running back. Dane doesn't have a top 50 running back.

They're picking it 56. So if they want to take one even in the second round, that could potentially be an option for them. Still think they probably need help at linebacker. They signed Eric Kendrickson free agency, but that's some stuff you can do in the middle rounds. And I think like secondary and edge depth. You know, they lost Orange Armstrong and Dante Fowar and Free Agency.

That's 750 snaps between them. So offensive line is the most glaring hole. But I just, it's just one of those things again with this team where I look at the roster. I look at the resources. I look at the pathways. And it's just hard for me to imagine them being better than they were last year. And that feels avoidable. They were threading such a perfect needle last year.

The offensive jump they got. I mean, for eight, ten weeks they're one of, if not the best offense in the end of. it fell. They actually were. I mean, the Brandon Cook signing ended up working out in the second half the year. The leap they got from C.D. Lamb, the offensive line play. I mean, they got decent health from Tyrant Smith, which is nothing

you could really set your clock to. So I know the defense fell apart in the second half last year, but as far as what they were doing on offense, that's going to be way hard to duplicate. Brandon Cooks is another year older. So that's the other position I would throw out. Receiver, yeah. I have that up there as well.

Because now, Cooks is in the last year of his deal. He's 30. And you lost Michael Gallup, which Michael Gallup wasn't a huge contributor last year, but C.D. Lamb is best in the slot. So you still probably need an outside receiver somewhere along the way just to make the most out of that group. You don't have to spend a first round pick on one. But I think it is a need that is at least worth mentioning when you look at the overall

roster construction. All right. I wouldn't mind one on day two. No, I'm with you on that. All right. Let's get to our next one here. Minnesota Vikings at 23. can't really approach this conversation

in the same way you can with the others. I said, are they even going to have this pick? So I actually did every team that I thought they could trade with. I just had like a bullet point. So I think we should use this space to talk more about the cost of what it might take to get the quarterback and what that is going to meet.

Because this to me is a fascinating football experiment. What they're going to have to give up to go up into the top five, it's very likely this pick of 23, their pick at 11, a first round pick in 2025, and then probably something else, if you look at the history of quarterback trades from outside the top 10 into the top five. And I get it, right? Like, we want a quarterback. We want to get on the rookie quarterback timeline.

We don't, we can't wait until 11. This was always our plan. But if you look at the roster, there are still holes on the roster. There are still plenty of holes. They still need interior defensive line help. They still need cornerback help. They still need interior offensive line help. And that becomes harder to find when you trade all your picks away. I know quarterbacks are important. But if they move up for a quarterback, they won't pick again in this draft until 108. They have two fourth round picks. And if they include next year's one, they've already traded away next year's two to get that second first round pick.

So now you won't pick until the third round next year. So you're essentially sitting out the first two rounds of two straight. drafts in order to go up and get that guy. And I think you can make an argument that it's worth it, but we're really going to find out the value of a rookie quarterback contract if this guy isn't an elite elite player. And that's why I'm so curious about this, because it does feel like an experiment of sorts. They are. They're min-maxing this shit. I love it. I really do. I love that they're, uh, I want to see who they end up with. And then I could have a much further discussion about this of who they actually, if they move up, which they probably will.

But I do love this because how the rest of the roster, especially how the rest of the offense, we've kind of said this last year. We were talking about what is Minnesota and what, what are they? And what, same with Tennessee. Those two kind of were always felt in lockstep. Like, where are these two teams doing? And with the Vikings, it was, well, it looks like they're setting up their offense to, you know, pop a rookie quarterback in there or a young quarterback in there.

And like their defense is kind of a grab bag of, you know, what the defense coordinator figure it out? well a year later sure seems like that doesn't it that they're just making the offense ready made an ecosystem that a young quarterback can get dropped into even if it's a guy that i think has to sit hey well let's sam darnald take some bullets first until we're for sure and then they have a defense with a unique defensive coordinator that can maybe find value in guys that others can't brian flores probably not could be the best defense but at least it'll be hard to play against yeah that that that was the roadmap and they're kind of sticking to that roadmap, which is going to, I think it's, like you say, it's a great thought experiment. I can't wait to see what actually happen. So if you look at how it will play out over the next year in just terms of resources, right now they're slated to have $100 million in cap space in 2025. That is without a Justin Jefferson extension. So Justin Jefferson's going to get paid a shitload of money so that you'll have to account for that.

Christian Derisaw is also up for an extension. I think that's going to happen sooner rather than later. So we've talked about this. They have two, they have quality tackles on both sides. they have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hawkinson. And so that's the bet is if we drop in that guy with that sort of support and cast, we're going to be able to create an elite offense because of the pieces that we have, and then we can figure the rest out on defense. And if they're paying their quarterback, let's say the third overall pick makes $7 million against the cap in 2025, whatever it is.

You're still going to have $70 million in cap space to throw around on defense. you can bangles the defense if you want to combined with what Flores can do on that side of the ball. So that's the thought is that if we have this group of offensive support system guys that we can pay full freight because we're playing a rookie quarterback, is that our best path to be a competitive team. I have no idea if the answer is yes. You have so few picks to build it up with other cheap guys at other positions. But that seems to be the bet that they're making. And I think that's really the only necessary or relevant conversation to have about the Vikings right now. That's it.

This is the bet they think is their best bet. And I, it's cool. Obviously, it's so easy to say that. It's like, get on the rookie quarterback train. It's like, yeah, we say that with these guys that were taking top five. Like, yeah, I could do that too. If like that guy, like I have a top five pick that we're seeing a team well outside of it or pick 11 decently outside of it trying to go. No, we're pushing.

If they end up with like a McCarthy, like if they end up with QB3, QB4, it becomes even more interesting because then it's a was it worth it just for a guy as opposed to one of the guys that you know me personally concerns that's exactly right is it is it worth it just for a guy

is maybe a question that we will be answering and they something worth mentioning here because I know Vikings fans might be pissed if we don't say this they likely do have two third round cop picks coming in 2025 because of because they lost Neil Hunter and Kurt Cousins

so the way Have you seen JJ McCarthy's pressure to sack rate. So that will help them recoup some of this draft capital, but those are two back half of the third round picks. That's pick 99 and 101. You're giving up the first two rounds of the draft for two straight years to do this. And we've seen it happen, right?

Like the Rams did this with golf and the way that they built the rest of the roster allowed them to do this. And I think you could make an argument. There's probably some similarities there, right? Like we have one elite elite player, arguably the best non-quarterback in the NFL. that we can pair with a cheap quarterback and we can spend it all of these other positions. That's what the Rams did with golf

and they played in the Super Bowl with that model. So there is a pathway to doing it if you're going to give up this much for the quarterback, but you need a lot of other stuff to fall into place to make that work. And we're about to see

if the Vikings can pull that off. That's great. I love it. I love it. And KOC is going to put a good system around him, too. That's another thing. That's the other bet that you're making.

Exactly. That's the other. bet we're going to maximize whatever the hell we got in which I I think that's why all this discussion about them like if this or another team doing this I'd be a little like ha ha like but a little bit really okay like with the Vikings it's like well you guys do have the an ecosystem that makes sense to do this so again that's why it's going to be really really cool to watch the two times this has worked recently besides the Rams the other example of this for it working is you gave up a ton to go up and get the quarterback to get other rookie quarterback timeline you

spend on the rest of the roster was once and eventually it was whole foals right and we've talked about this the other element the other component of those teams doing what they did is that they both had a decided schematic advantage in those seasons the rams offense lit the league on fire in 2017 and 2018 the eagles and what they did with all those r pos in 2017 teams were not ready for that so you need an offensive ecosystem led by most likely a play calling head coach on that side to get the most out of this sort of model. And they are set up to potentially do that. And it almost seems like a, but it almost, if you look back at history, it almost seems like

a non-negotiable piece if you are going to try to do it this way. Because every other team that has done it this way has had that guy in place. Even think the chiefs moving up from homes. I have Andy frickin' reed. That's just a first. That's just an extra first. Even if you look at that's, and that there's so that it's not just trading up for a quarterback. That was,

RG3 is what, six to two, or seven to two, whatever it was, nine to two. Wait, they gave a bat. That was another one.

But also, again, another example of decided schematic advantage. That's what I was getting at. That's what I was getting at, is that they had Kyle Shannon and Mike Shanahan. So yeah, that's pretty good.

And that's that. So I don't know. This is, this is one, if they get Drake May, then holy crap, draft night's going to be interesting for me, because I'm just going to be like,

okay. But that's the thing. It's like who they end up with is going to be, going to be really, really going to be launching a lot of discussions off of that, like how to picture it all in, obviously, but I just have to say that. Let's get to the Eagles at 22. I'm curious where you went here for the most pressing needs for the Philadelphia Eagles heading into

this draft. I think this Eagles are a great example of it's not so much needs. It's more like I know what positions they focus on in the first round, which is trenches and corner. I don't think they'll go receiver. It is, but you never know. I don't know. But not sure if they'll go all.

line, but this is the versatile guy range. All the guys I mentioned, all the five spot guys, this, do they get a Lane Johnson succession plan on the team? They've done this. They've done this a defense line and offensive line where they'll inject talent, even if they don't need that exact answer at that time. They still have Jeff Stoutland. That opens up all the possibilities.

Like, everything's available when you have a Jeff Stoutland on your roster, on your coaching staff. Oh, that guy, yeah, because you can, you can bet on the upside. You can go, well, we see him as this. Well, we'll know because we have the coach that can get them there. Like that's why you bet on that or why you invest in that. But all depends on what they think of their guys. As it stands right now, sticking with the trenches, I like on the defensive side.

Jared verse from Florida State. I like the fit here. I like where he could potentially go as far as like where he's slotted right now. He's been slotted anywhere from the early teens to the mid-20s. I think 22 is perfect for him. I think he's a run first defensive end. He's all about power, speed to power, speed to power. I like that because of the makeup of the rest of this team.

team, especially up front. They have a little bit more bendy, speedy guys. Depends on what happens with sweat. I think they're holding on to him, obviously, but I think just the rest of their guys, he makes a lot of sense for kind of, they stick with Nolan Smith. He works with that. With Bryce Huff, you know, he matches with

Bryce Huff as being more the run first guy that can push the pocket. So Jared Verst makes a lot of sense to me as opposed to Chop Robinson or layout to Latu who are more rush first, past rush first guys than run first guys. So that's the guy that in this slide, that makes a little bit of sense to me as far as a pairing.

It's hard for me to imagine them spending another high draft pick on a pass rusher just because of the guys already on the roster. Even if they end up trading Hassan Redick and if Josh Swett moves on after this year, they drafted Nolan Smith in the first round last year and they just spent how, what was it, $18 million a year on Bryce Huff. I know it's only two guys. But if they use another first round pick on a pass rusher already with the investments that they've made, that would be a little bit surprised to be even based on their history.

just because it's not the most clear need to me. I still think offensive line is the thing I would point out. Like, interior offensive line and what it looks like right now, without Kelsey and, you know, Steen and whoever else at right guard, they sign Matt Hennessy and free agency, and then corner. Like, even if they already have two starting corners nominally, it does seem like getting younger a corner to me would be more of a priority than adding another pass rusher, even when you think about Howe's history.

The other spot that I would say is safety. you know, do they do they figure they need somebody to step in? Sidney Brown, obviously they drafted in the third round last year, but do they need one more safety if CJ Gardner Johnson is going to play in the slot for them? How do they view his role? Because obviously they added him after moving out from Avanti-Matic. So just just one more guy potentially on the back half of the defense in the middle of the defense. And so you mentioned a couple of the pass rushers.

And this is a lot, the area where there are a lot of corners available if they do choose to go corner. We talked about Koolaid McKinstree last week. You know, Nate Wiggins, Cooper Dejohn, who you mentioned, do they see Dejohn as somebody that can, you know, play safety and then play corner eventually. So if they do go DB, this does feel like a range where a lot of those guys will potentially be available. The receiver one is just the, just what I actually liked. I've been thinking about it because they signed Devante Parker.

And so I think he'll be on the outside. So I was like, is that, does that mean Devante Smith's going to be on the inside now? So he'll be a slot guy for them. This is it going to be AJ. Because Kellemore does the traditional positions, XFZ. So I'm curious what that unlocks for Brownsmith. That's what, sorry. I just had that side thought because I was starting to look at the receiver depth.

I think that's a good thought, though. You're not a slot guy. Quez Watkins. What's that need for that spot? Because Quez Watkins signed with the Steelers today. So the receiver is definitely worth mentioning because they, even with those two guys on the roster, you could argue that they still have a need there. I'm curious, they have $33 million in cap space right now, but they're already up against it for next year.

AJ Brown goes from $12 million to $26 million next year. There's a chance that they trade Redick, so they'll have even more cap space this year. So what their cap situation looks like is just unique compared to other teams because they're going to get really expensive at some spots next year, even though they currently have a lot of cap space. So, and then the other thing is that they have an extra two from the Saints. So if you're looking at just positions of need and where they could go, that extra second

round pick is just in their back pocket from that Saints trade a couple years ago. All right. Let's get to the Miami Dolphins here at 21. Your biggest need as you looked at the Miami Dolphins roster here. Offensive line, if they don't go offensive line, I'm going to go straight to the 305 and just scream at them and say, hey, you guys need this for your season to succeed. You guys need this. You guys realize that, right? Two years in a row, you guys need this.

You need general health. You need offensive line health. I get it. You're in the Shanahan offense. You think you guys are bulletproof. Don't need to invest in offense line. Get a guy. Just draft one of them.

There's so many of them. And it doesn't matter what spot. Okay, Jordan, Troy. Now I got all the guys the names I'm not struggling with. Tally's Fulaga, Graham Barton, Jackson, Powers, Johnson, Amarius Mims. You love your talented, injured guys. Go for Amerius Mims. It fits your profile.

It's perfect. Kingsley. I'll just go Kingsley, BYU, that's where we're going with now. Kingsley, perfect. Another athletic guy is the left, tackle, right, doesn't matter. It's just, it's just faux tanu. All five spots. What spot is your best bad?

It doesn't matter. Starting offense alignment, that's a first rounder with pedigree, does have injury history. He does not have injury history. What's go with that? So I just, if they go receiver, I saw them talking to, I saw Mike McDaniel talking to Xavier Worthy. If you go to receiver because he ran a 4-2-1 in the first round, I will lose my mind. I don't care how awesome their offense is.

I don't care how much I love Mike McDaniel and what he does on offense. If they do that, they go with the shiny toy stuff. I'm like, it's like it's fun. It's going to be great, but I would be really upset if I were a Dolphins fan because I think, this isn't good team building. This is just shiny toy syndrome. And even beyond team building, they've run into a wall at the end of the season for the last two years. And I think their inability to be flexible on offense is something that's worth

bringing up here. And the offensive line is what is going to give you that ability to be flexible. So they lost Robert Hunt and Connor Williams in free agency. They signed Aaron Brewer to like a, you know, starting level center deal. And that's fine. If he's going to be your center, great. I think that makes sense. But right now, they signed Isaiah win to a one year deal and Liam Eichenberg is still on this roster of guard. So them drafting a guard in the first round in this range where there are going to be plenty of them available almost makes too much sense. Yeah. It's been the easiest team for me to mock every time I do a mock draft.

Just whatever line is sitting there that I'm like, yeah, whatever one I want to write about for the dolphins in this one. Okay, Jordan Morgan, you can play tackle and guard. Ooh, cool. You guys need tackles and guards. Sweet. That would make sense. Like, no matter what, it made sense.

And that one I like because it's a similar conversation to the nighters, right? Where we were talking about them needing a guard and then maybe moving to left tackle eventually. Trampton is not going to be there forever. It's probably got maybe another year or so. So if you wanted to draft a guy that can play guard for you in 2024 and then be your succession plan at left tackle, very similar to the conversation we have about San Francisco, I think that that applies here.

Morgan's been a guy that I kind of like for Shanahan offenses, and maybe I just maybe I saw it in my head early, but he just always comes up with the dolphins for me, is Morgan for whatever reason. I just, I see it for whatever reason when I'm writing up these mocks and the player fits. Just talking about some other needs, even if offensive line, I agree, is the most glaring. Safety.

You know, they signed Jordan Poir, but it's a one-year, two-million dollar deal. So I think if you're paying attention to that, they still probably need another safety next to to Javan Holland. And then interior defensive line. They lose Christian Wilkins in free agency. So they signed some flyers in free agency and Neville Gallimore from Dallas, Bonito Jones from the Lions. But these are short-term, very cheap deals.

So safety and defensive lines somewhere along the way, I think probably should be addressed for them. But those are the only other two that I had. that's it. Really, I just put trenches and all the line notes, but yeah, defensive lines the other one or two. And especially, you can really just pick a spot. I would understand the answer.

It's just injecting talent for both sides of the trenches. We've talked about most of the guys that could potentially be in play here, all of the interior offensive line guys, all of the tackle to guard guys. The name we have not mentioned that I will throw out for the first time, and I'm curious what you think about this, he may be gone already. But if they do think interior defensive line is the best way to go here, this is the first time we probably mentioned Brian Murphy from Texas if he falls this far. So he's the most, you know, impactful, high-level defensive, interior defensive line

available in this draft. Do they think that is their best route because they can find interior offensive line help a little bit further down the draft, even though they don't have a third round pick. That's worth mention it. Yeah, and this is right, I would say the tail end of Murphy's range. I'd say he's, this is exactly where I think you would go 15 to 22-ish, 14 to 22-ish. That's kind of where I picture them. No, that's a great one.

I, for me, that's the defensive fit with him. Like I, but I got, I got to unbreak my brain with that a little bit where I'm like, oh, they run a little three down stuff. He's more of a four, three, three, you know, three tech and everything. Honestly, watching defenses around the league right now, there's none of that anymore where it's like, no, we need this type of guy. Guys just make it work. They just go, oh, we'll put them at D.

End on past, we're good. You know, they make it work. We don't need those traditional body types. Well, also think about, I mean. I'm saying, so I'm saying, so I'm saying what I like that more than initial assessment, kind of like just going of. what their personnel or how they use their personnel. Well, they're also transitioning defensively, right?

So Anthony Weaver's now there as the defensive coordinator. He comes over from Baltimore. I mean, you drop Byron Murphy into what they asked Justin Matabike to do. Matabique, boom. That's perfect. That is a one for one. Let's get to the Steelers at 20. I think that there are a couple pretty obvious needs.

I'm curious if we had the same ones. Where did you start here? I had O-line and corner. That's where I ended up at. All the interior linemen, I would love for them. Jackson, Powers, Johnson, Barton, all the guys that we mentioned all the time. Pardon from Duke, I should mention that again. But corner for me, because I love what saw Joey Porter Jr. last year.

And I just, I just said, let's drop another outside corner there with stop this kind of rotating cast that we keep doing at this position in Pittsburgh. And if a Quinny on Jackson is part of that Deontay Johnson trade, but he's only under contract for one more year. So this year, right? That's it. Yeah. But for me, it's, man, if they have, like, Taryn Arnold might be, he might be, he might be, gone by this point, but corners, again, it's eye of the beholder. And this is a bunch of guys in this range. He's from Alabama. He can play outside. He can play inside. I think his feciness, his IQ is very

Pittsburgh and how they can use them. They like to do some zone stuff. They like to do some, they do a little bit of everything. He's kind of good for that. And he's going to be used to what they ask of their corners, having more eyes on the quarterback, transitions nicely from Alabama. So he's a guy that actually, I like that fit. He's right now being slotted as the better of the two Alabama corners over Kool-Aid McKinstree. We talked about this on the idiots guy. Kool-Aid and him kind of swapped over the season. But I don't know where he'll end up going, but this might be the tail of it in his range.

And then that's the other corner that I have highly. A lot of us have highly up there is Quinion Mitchell from Toledo. Shoot, any team would like him. And I think he fits in any defense scheme. But those two, to me, can be, I think, more impactful for the Steelers than there would be for other teams, especially just what they have on their makeup and the rest of their roster, and especially what their mindset is kind of just always push, push, push. Kind of like, hey, we got Russell Wilson, Justin Fields.

Yeah, let's go again. Mike Tomlin. If they drafted a corner, I'd be curious how the rolls would end up shaking out after the Dante Jackson trade. Again, that's not a long-term answer. But if you could drop a guy that you drafted in the first round into the nickel roll, and when Dante Jackson moves on next year, you pop him outside, I think that does make a lot of sense. Safety, they brought into Sean Elliott, but they have some bodies that they've maintained

next to Mick and Fitzpatrick. That feels like it's worth mentioning. they signed Patrick Queen in free agency, so linebacker is probably less glaring than it was near the end of last season. I'm going offense, though, because I think to me the two most glaring needs they probably have, you can argue three.

Receivers still, you know, Van Jeff, all respect to Quez Watkins and Van Jefferson, I think they probably need to invest in receiver somewhere in the first two days of the draft, and I would be surprised if they didn't at this point. And then the other two spots, left tackle. You know, Dan Moore is still there. Congratulations to Dan Moore.

he's been there forever. It feels like you're holding down that left tackle spot as a fourth round pick. But he's in the final year of his deal and I think they could use an upgrade there no matter what and center still. I think they probably could use an upgrade at center and where they do that, I think is still a question. But left tackle, wide receiver center, I still think are three needs that probably need to be addressed on that side of the ball. I'm curious if they kick Broger Jones over. That's if they want to move them over to left tackle and just to, the yeah the um no i i the receiver stuff i just that i picture the steward's always being day two

so i don't for receiver they've had some luck with it i wouldn't change my philosophy either so i think that's why i picture them uh focusing on that position because i agree i think they do need another receiver obviously they just moved on from johnson i'm not betting on calvin austin playing more than five snaps a game why how much calvin austin ways about the same as daviworthy maybe smaller He's Kevin Austin's a good football player, though. I wish he was 180, 190, because his toughness and everything is actually good. But Van Jefferson, watch him in Atlanta, outside of Rams, no. He's a bottom of the roster kind of a playable guy, like a receiver 5, ideally, receiver

four. So I do agree with that, the receiver spot. The corner, it just kept coming back to me. It was Corner or Jackson Powers Johnson, not just even Graham Barton or anything. It was just Jackson Powers Johnson from Oregon. So he's the name for the show, I guess. but like that was the for the Steelers was that one made a lot of sense for me especially how they like to bring guys along.

Which wide receiver would you like to see in this offense? It doesn't necessarily have to be a first round pick, but is there a receiver from this class that if you were trying to pair with what Arthur Smith likes to do that you think would make the most sense for Pittsburgh? Oh, they don't have this pick, but Dunezay would be amazing for them. Actually, like Jalen Polk from Washington, Dunezay's teammate, and he's a day two type of guy. I have him graded a little higher than other people, but he's being considered kind of like a middle day two guy,

late, second, early third. He would actually be a great fit. Kind of could play Z. He actually has a great synergy with George Pickens. Pickens is a traditional X. So you have a Z, not the fastest guy. So we might get into our Falcons conundrum

of no juice downfield as we try to do all this play action game with Arthur Smith. So that- Close of though, he is a downfield threat. Like he's a ball. He goes up and gets it. So, by the way, if you haven't noticed,

I've started washing the washing, the Washington offense. The Washington receivers. Isn't it fun? I can't even describe it. Guys, dunk on guys. So just, spoiler alert, later this week, we are doing the quarterbacks. So I've started watching all of the quarterbacks.

And I watched the Washington offense in earnest this weekend for the first time. I queued up like three games on the plane. The Washington offense rules. I can't, I can't even get over how cool the Washington offense is. I'm glad. I know it's not going to be to the same level, but I'm glad to see what they'll look like in the NFL. I'm so,

I'm so, so, because I, it translates. I vote, it translates to the NFL because it's not unbalanced stuff.

It's stuff that translates to the NFL. So that's why I'm curious to see it. I was having a conversation with somebody, uh, last night about this. And I think that why it's such a cool idea for the NFL is, even if it's a much wider offense, it's very spread out.

But I think a lot of the ideas that they're bringing are translate there. It aligns with what successful NFL offenses look like, but it's almost taking it a slightly new direction. It's like an iteration on what successful NFL offense looks like. So if you're going to make a bet on that, that's cool. Like that is the type of bet I would make

if I was bringing a college offensive coordinator to the league. Like what they're doing with motions, stacks and bunches, it's a vertical offense, but it has a lot of answers built into it. It is very sound and applicable to the NFL game, but it's like on steroids.

Like it's just turning it up just a little bit, which is why I think it's very cool. When I watch college offenses, I will have some snootiness to me where I'm like, oh, I don't know what that concept is. What is that? Like, that's not sound. There's no checkdown over there. I watch Washington's offense and that's why I'm comfortable and being optimistic about. I'm praising it because it's good ball.

It's like what you just said. It's sound, but it's cranked up. It's got some gimmick to it, but I shouldn't say, like, it's not hokey gimmick. It's like, no, this is, it's more just create an advantage. Hey, we're going to go tempo here. Hey, we're going to do a bunch of shifting, emotioning. Guess what the good offenses do in the NFL? That's what they do.

It's not the smoke and mirrors BS that we see some of these RPO stuff. They'll sprinkle it in, like, you know, but that's not leaning on that. No, I'm excited to see it. It reminds me a little as where it's a traditional offense with new twists. This is a personal, and I know his name is not the standing in 2024 that was back in the day is when my dad hired Scott Lennahan. He was the OSE at Louisville. And he was a very innovative at the time offense with modern or at the time pro concepts,

but he added some college twist to it. and then it came to Minnesota and it worked out well, but the same kind of kind of transition there. It was watching them. We were going farther down the rabbit earlier, but I was really blown away by watching it. They're using like stacks and bunches, but the bunch is like five feet away from the sideline.

So the bunch that they're using is like 20 yards away from the center. So it's a lot of ideas, again, that are translatable, but you're watching it in a slightly different way than you have. But then you see them running choice routes from the bunch in a college system. So it's just there's so much, there's so much overlap with what you want to see from the NFL, but it's just turned up in a little bit of a different way, which is why I'm very interested in it as my lights go out.

Yeah, that's great. No, yeah, the original question on this was Polk, J-1 Polk. So, oh, another one that maybe like in his offense is Troy Franklin from Oregon. He's a little skinny, but he's scraps and blocks, and he can get downfield a little bit. He would add a little bit of juice. So it would be another day-to type of guy. I'm not sure if he's a perfect fit, but that's one that can add some juice.

Would you think of Caleb Williams versus Cal by the way? I'm going to ask you about that. I don't want to get too far down there. I don't want to spoil that. Because we're doing the quarterback show. We're doing the quarterback show this week. Oh, no. We're going to have a very extensive Caleb Williams conversation here in about 48 hours.

So I'm looking forward to that. It's fun, isn't it? It is very fun. And I'm looking forward to digging into that with you guys. Last one here, the Rams picking at 19. This one's pretty easy for me. It just defense, right? Like, what are there needs?

defense. If you look at their offense, their offense is set. Set pretty well. They don't really need anything. You can make an argument that maybe you try to get another receiver somewhere along the way, maybe because you probably need a third guy. But other than that, the offensive line is well positioned.

Obviously, they spent on it in free agency. We know about the skill position talent. To meet defense in a bunch of different ways, you could go edge, you could go defense tackle, you could go secondary. I would understand any of those directions in the first couple rounds. This is where I had Byron Murphy's name first written down.

First one I had one with Donald. That's the exact. They had the, he's not to Donald's level. No one is ever going to be. But he has the same kind of play style as far as he's a gap shooting three tech. It would make a lot of sense for me. It's that they just want to go, hey, but splash it up. He creates explosive plays for the defense.

Great synergy with Kobe Turner. Like if those two together would be perfect as a one, two or inside the kind of pairing. My dream situation for the Rams, though. is if they go offense and they go Brock Bowers. That's just greedy, man. That's just greedy, man. That's just greedy at this point. Dream situation that appear, oh, I'm not doing the tight end. Oh, you know, they might make fun of me on Twitter and all tight ends take a while to do all this.

Oh, you know, and they say something smart about why they didn't go with Bowers. And I just watched Bowers. I just wrote about Bowers. Bowers is a power slot. He is, but can play tight end and can play outside receiver. He is a Cooper Cup replacement for the long term. not a outside receiver replacement. That is just me because I want to see Sean McVeigh use him and just watch magic unfold.

I think he'll go before that. My other dream situation was Cooper DeGine for this defense. Okay, that is reasonable. Safety. We are now in the Cooper DeGine range where I think it's worth mentioning him. I ruined my own joke because I was going to go DeGine first, but then I got too excited. I want to talk about Bowers. But then, yeah, but if we're going to stick with defense, DeGine actually makes a lot of sense for them.

The whole discussion, safety, slot, outside corner. He injects talent into a defense that needs needle movers. he can do that. They still need corner help even after signing Darius Williams. They still need safety help even after signing Cam Curl.

And the Cam Curl contract, we have not talked about that, really. I mean, they got him at a really decent price. Really like that one. Yeah, I know, ramps, good off season so far.

They've done some nice moves. But even with those moves, they still could use some help in the secondary, and they still need help along the defensive line. You mentioned Interior. If they went Byron Murphy,

if he was there, I think that makes total sense. But this is a spot where the edge rushers would be applicable. A lot too from UCLA, Chop Robinson, whatever flavor they wanted to go with at that spot, they need defensive line help and front four help. And I think that if you look at all these spots,

it honestly feels like they're sitting in a really nice range. Because we've talked about this as the offense draft, where the first 12 picks may be offense, well, this offense is set up. They don't really need much help on offense. So them pick a 19 and being able to get the third or fourth or fifth best defensive player in the draft where they're picking, I actually think it sets up very well for them when you consider their needs and where they are.

It was a good draft for them to have all their picks. Because they can add those supplemental pieces. It really was. I'm joking, but that's serious. Talking about them having a first round pick is a new experience. I'm looking forward to even that, the fact that they get to make one. It's a very weird. Yeah.

It definitely is. Because again, we're not much to go off of here. It's usually someone else's team taking this pick in top five or the 20s in recent years. But I think they're set up nicely to add a nice kind of like, trying to find a good term for it. A complimentary piece that can be a needle mover, like grow into a guy that's a true like,

you know, this guy could be a pro bowler. And they're set up nicely for that for exactly what you pointed out. That I think it's going to be so offense, so heavy, that they can maybe get some guys that drop to them. That was like, oh, usually this guy might go 12. I can get him at 19, not even have to do anything. which might be boring for Lesney and Sean McVeigh, but I think boring might be good for them

because I think so far they're kind of boring moves have been really good this off season. I like where they're set up for the Rams. Can they get another draft class that feels, not like last year's because obviously they crushed that out of the park, but can you get a couple contributors this year on defense where you got some youth on defense, you've got some explosiveness on defense,

you combine it with what their offense could potentially look like and what does this team look like in the NFC? You can see the path that they can potentially follow, I think it's pretty exciting. So that defensive player that they could potentially get in their first round and the defensive guys

they'll draft early in this draft, if those guys hit quickly, this team becomes pretty interesting, pretty fast. All right. That's all we got. We'll be back next week doing 18 through 12,

I think. Next week is 18 to 12 and then we'll do 11 through 6 and then 1 through 5. So we will hit every first round pick along the way. And a lot of Panthers fans have asked we will talk about

the 33 pick as well. We will give a cursory conversation about the Panthers somewhere in this exercise because you guys deserve it. I don't. I apologize. I apologize. I apologize Panthers fans because I actually kind of, even in my mocks, I haven't even thrown you a bone there. So I actually, yeah, yeah, my bad here. We'll see when we do it.

Doing it after handing Caleb Williams to the Bears seems like a cruel time to do it. But I reverse the right back. Here we go. Actually, it might be it. That feels mean, but it might be the best time to handle it. but we will talk about the Panthers somewhere along the way here. The Browns don't have a pick until like the 50s, and we're not going to talk about the Browns, unfortunately.

So sorry for Browns fans in this exercise, but we'll talk about you plenty of. Exactly. We've already talked about them enough. All right, guys, that's all we've got. Sincerely appreciate you listening. We will be back on Thursday, like we mentioned, talking quarterbacks with Dave.

A lot to dig into. Kail Williams' conversation. We'll talk about Drake May. Talk about the other guys, maybe outside of the top two. where Jane Daniels is going to fall, what J.J. McCarthy looks like as a prospect. All that stuff is coming in earnest a little bit later this week. So until then, sincerely appreciate you guys listening.

We'll talk to you soon. This was The Athletic Football Show.