The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - NFL Mythbusters: Challenging preconceived notions about the 2024 season, with Mitchell Schwartz
Episode Date: August 2, 2024Wait a minute. Are the Chargers and Patriots really going to be that bad? Should the Falcons really be runaway favorites in the NFC South? Are the Jets really Super Bowl contenders? Robert Mays and Mi...tchell Schwartz bust some myths on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Host: Robert MaysWith: Mitchell SchwartzExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Mitchell on X: @MitchSchwartz71Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Welcome to the Athletic Football Show.
I'm Robert Mays.
Today we are chatting with our old buddy Mitchell Schwartz,
formerly of the Kansas City Chiefs,
a friend of the show,
somebody I absolutely love chatting about football with.
Mitch is always good about kind of checking
some of the storylines that have maybe gotten a little ahead of themselves
as we head into a given season.
I always appreciate him just raising his hand and saying,
are we sure about that?
We sure that's actually going to go?
So that's what we're going to talk about today.
We're going to talk about some storylines,
some narratives that have been built up
or gain steam a little bit from the start of the offseason until right now,
as we're a week and a half into training camp, and just maybe interrogate those a little bit.
See how good we feel about them, see how real those might be,
and maybe try to poke some holes in some of the talking points that have been pretty consistent
since we started the 2024 off season.
So excited to get to that conversation with Mitch.
Let's get to it.
Joining us now, it is a friend of the athletic football show.
It's Mr. Swartz.
Mitch, how are you doing, man?
I'm good, good to be here.
You got a lot of stuff going on over there.
You're a new dad. It's been a hectic summer. How you holding up?
Holding up pretty good. Yeah, that's the main thing going on, which has been awesome.
Also, a test of patience, which, you know, come to find out, all you really got to do is just keep feeding them until they're sleepy and happy, which I suppose she takes after her dad in that way.
Listen, that's still, you're underselling what goes into all of this, I'm sure.
And I have a lot of appreciation and admiration for the fathers in my life as I truly could not.
imagine shoehorning that into all the other stuff that's going on. So glad to hear you're doing
well. We're going to do something today that I thought you were perfect for because so often when
you and I are talking about stuff, there are narratives or storylines that other people will just
accept as fact. It's just kind of one of the things we understand to be true about the NFL or
a coming NFL season. And so often you're kind of like, are we sure about that? Are we sure that
that's actually how this is going to go.
So what we're going to do today is we're going to take a step back and look at some of those
storylines and some of those narratives that have crept up over the course of this offseason
that kind of are just accepted as the way things are going to go this year and maybe try to
poke some holes in those and just raise some questions about how valid all of those might be.
Before we do that, though, we had a bit of news that broke right before we started recording
and it's news that I think you are well suited to talk about.
Tristan Worf's of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is now the highest paid offensive linemen in NFL history.
Five years, 140.63 million.
That's 28.1 million a year, which is just ahead of where Penae Soule was, which I think is interesting in its own right,
the fact that he barely edged out the Soule contract.
When you saw the Wurfs deal, we're hearing those numbers, outside of I played in the wrong era,
What is your first reaction to that contract?
My first reaction is I'm surprised he didn't get 30 because I think he just seems set up to do that.
And, you know, Detroit is paying a lot of people, a lot of money.
And as much as they're rewarding all those positions and kind of paying top dollar for it,
it seems like Tampa while still, you know, kind of keeping the core together and paying guys,
it seemed like Worf's was the guy to kind of push that bar and to get to 30.
And then maybe Trent Williams slides in at a wonder,
year deal for 30 after that and everything's happy in San Francisco. So a little bit surprised
that the 30 number wasn't captured. And then secondly, I'm kind of surprised these guys are
sticking with five-year deals. You know, I think Laramie Tunzel has had the best
financial go of it at the tactical position of anybody and he's done it off a three-year deals.
And then all of a sudden, two or three years later, you only got a year left and it's time to
re-up and you can keep pushing that market up and up and up. So I am a little bit surprised that
he didn't get to 30, a little bit surprised that he did a five-year deal. But man, that's a lot of
And that's a lot of good Eden and good watches and good private jet flights.
Speaking of watches, my wife, my growing watch habit, I'm blaming you about it.
Every time it comes up, I'm just throwing it firmly on you.
It's like getting me started down that road and why I'm in trouble.
No, it's your fault for being successful enough to be able to pay for them.
The problem is I don't know if I am.
That's the concern there.
All right, let's get back to this deal.
I'm with you on this.
The five years is interesting.
I wonder if that allows them to have similar structures and similar like money contract or three
your financial flows to Darrasaw and Sewell because they signed theirs a year early.
So all of these guys, because Trifts and Worf came into the league of year earlier, they're on the same sort of timeline now.
They're under contract for the same amount of years.
So I wonder if there's anything to that as they were trying to use these other deals as sort of a framework.
The total number, I'm with you.
I just assumed that he was going to potentially be the guy to really.
push this up a notch.
And what's interesting to me is when you compare this to where the receiver market is right now.
I mean, you have receivers.
Justin Jefferson is making 35.
When the CD-LAM contract comes in, I assume it's probably going to be in the $33 to $34 million range because of where that is.
DJ Moore got a contract earlier this week for $27.5 million a year that I don't think anyone really shrugged at.
I mean, it was understandable.
It's like that's kind of where we are right now.
And I think a lot of guys, you know, in that maybe eight to 12, you know, top eight to 12 receivers in the league are getting contracts like that that aren't surprising anyone.
So the fact that probably the most valuable tackle in the NFL right now when you consider what he has done as a player, how young he is and where this can go from here, the fact that he's sliding in at 28.1 rather than pushing that market up and even getting closer to some of these receiver numbers, it is a little bit surprising to me that they didn't show a little bit more urgency and really.
taking this thing up one more notch.
Yeah, I think what we're seeing is understanding the importance of having good
offense alignment, great offense alignment, I mean, some of the stuff we're going to talk about
later, we're going to talk about the benefit of a good offensive line as opposed to, you know,
individual great talents.
Your one receiver, I would argue even as an offensive line guy, is probably going to benefit
the entire offense more than the one great tackle.
And it does seem like teams are rewarding that position for being able to, you know,
change how coverages work, being able to, you know, Kansas City, the whole one high, two high thing after, you know, Tyreek speed and all that stuff.
But, you know, having a blind side left tackle who you don't have to give help to, you don't have to scheme around.
That's a benefit to the offense.
It's just not as much as what Justin Jefferson by himself can buy you for the offense.
And so I think when you look at the receiver position, you think, all right, we got our one stud.
We can find some good number two, number three guys, kind of spread that out, have the one tight end, maybe a pass catching running back out of the backfield.
But the offensive line position, I mean, we have to be really good at all five spots.
And so once you get into paying one tackle $28 million, one guard, $15 to $20 million, a center, $8 million, you know, you've got two other guys.
That's a lot of money.
That's more money than paying three receivers or two receivers on a tight end.
So I do understand why that discrepancy is starting to build a little bit.
But obviously, as an offensive line guy, would have been nice for him to get to $30.
I'm with you, and I've typically seen it that way.
When we talk about stacking up positional value, I do think that receivers have a little bit of an edge right now for the exact reason that you mentioned.
It's a weakling system along offensive lines.
But that's new.
That viewpoint about how we see this positions and how the league rewards these positions, even if that what you just said is probably right, that's a new world.
That's not how it always was.
And the fact that we see the distance now growing between those two spots, I think is notable.
And with worse specifically, though, I think that we've seen really good offenses in the NFL.
really smart, well-designed offense is weaponized tackles.
Not only just in past protection the way that Worf's is used,
but think about how much the Niners run game is an expression of what Trent Williams can do.
Think about how much the Lions run game is an expression of what Pentezoul can do.
I have a feeling we're going to see some of that stuff from Worf's this year.
I think that the Pucks running game over the last couple years, especially last year,
not all that creative.
It was just like a lot inside zone, outside zone.
I don't think there was a lot of like, all right,
How can we really maximize this because they had to do so much work and did such a great job of figuring out how to get the most out of the quarterback and what the passing game had to look like?
They have a new offensive staff there this year.
Liam Cohen comes in.
I do think that we'll see Worf's used in more ways than we've ever seen before.
And I truly think that there's a chance we see the best version of him that he's been in the NFL this season.
And that's kind of scary considering how good he's already been every year of his career.
Yeah.
The thing with him, though, is I think it's less obvious how to,
use him in the run game. I think he's just big and strong and can move people.
We're a guy like Trent who ran a four, six, a guy like Sewell, who's extremely fast.
You know, you think of when you're saying those names. I mean, we talk, seeing some stuff in the
off-season in Carolina that, you know, interior are the guys they signed being more physical.
And then also using Icky, who was like a phenomenal run blocker, especially in space in college,
more in that role, you know, Baltimore last year with Morgan Moses, pulling him and getting him in space and seeing what he can do.
I just think worse isn't the guy that like you get into space in the way that other guys can.
Not say he can,
but he's just not quite as dynamic as an athlete and as a,
you know,
a sudden mover as those other guys.
So I think with him it's a little trickier to say like,
oh,
this stuff was specifically designed for him because Trent,
you know,
any run to the right,
he's going to do his little backside chop and he's going to create a ton of space,
you know,
runs to the left.
You can pull him.
You could get him in motion.
Obviously we saw him check in as eligible and destroy some guys in motion.
in the playoffs. So yeah, it won't be quite as obvious, but I do think you can really weaponize
his ability, his strength, his physicality, and, you know, having your belcow be the left tackle is
pretty cool too. I want to see them try to pull him a little bit more, though. It's not like he has
bad movement skills. I mean, he was an elite athlete at the combine. So I just want to see them try to do
some of that stuff with him a little bit more than they have in the past. Even if there are more
limitations compared to what a Sewell can give you or what a Trent Williams can give you,
I feel like there's meat left on the bone there from how he's been used over the last couple years.
And I would at least like to see some like trial and error about what that might be able to look like.
And I actually do think that we will with this new regime and with this new staff and how they're kind of conceiving of the run game.
He blocks well in space.
I mean, you see it on screens.
You see him toss little guys because he's so strong.
Like he's got a really good understanding of what he can do and what he can't do.
So to your point, I mean, you can give him a couple more pulls on the perimeter.
You can give him a couple more screens.
I think the way he'd honestly be best is we've seen more teams using tackles as pullers on, you know, kind of single-back shotgun runs, whether that's a trap on the perimeter, whether that's, you know, pulling up in the hole for the linebacker.
But imagining him wrapping through from the opposite side on a poor little 225-pound linebacker that's built for, quote-unquote, the modern game of football, that could be a pretty fun smush right there.
Yeah, obviously the bills do a ton of that.
And, you know, D.N. Dawkins is not a small tackle by any stretch.
They do plenty of that over there, and it is cool to watch.
All right, let's get into some of these storylines, some of these narratives that we've kind of crept up over the course of the off season that maybe we're not totally buying all the way.
And you're going to start us off.
You wanted to talk about the Chargers and kind of the way that we've discussed them over the course of the summer and how that doesn't really align with the way that you see them.
Yeah, I see the Chargers as being a pretty good team this year.
I don't know.
I can't put like a win total on it.
But I think they're going to be better than people think.
We all know about Harbaugh, we know about Herbert.
I think the detractors and the people who are looking at it would objectively say the defense
maybe doesn't have the talent level of some of the other defenses in the NFL, and that's obviously a worry.
But I think to me, Harbaugh is such a good coach.
And we've seen it at every stop, you know, obviously his four years in San Fran, what he did.
You know, Stanford, I was slightly recruited by him because he took over Stanford in the year.
I was getting recruited.
Then playing against him every year.
He had success before that.
at Michigan, championship, all that stuff.
He's just such a good coach that I think he's worth a few wins.
And Staley was such a bad coach that he is more than, you know,
the normal jump of a good coach coming into a bad situation.
It does seem like, you know, things are pretty bad there under Staley.
So I think there's a huge jump there.
And Harbaugh's biggest thing is culture and its physicality.
And we've seen that work, you know, tremendously in Detroit.
We've seen that work, you know, throughout the NFL, the past few years,
that if a coach can come in and get the guys working the right way,
you know, that's going to, you know, yield more benefits than like strictly a schematic genius,
which Harbaugh isn't a schematic genius.
He has always kind of pushed the boundaries, especially defensively with his hires.
I mean, he's been on the right side of hiring coordinators for the last decade plus.
So I think that's, you know, really fun and a nice little nugget.
But to me, we know about Herbert.
You know, I've pushed back on this show about Herbert a little bit just in terms of
anointing him as like a top three guy too early.
He's still a top five quarterback.
a tremendous quarterback. The offensive line is better. It's going to be, should be, quote
unquote, the best offensive line he's had both from a skill perspective and from a coaching
perspective. The offense, which again, detractors would say they're a little bit scared about
what the Greg Roman offense is going to look like and all the talk of running the ball
and ball security and play action. I think it's going to be a good solid offense. It's going to be
an offense that takes care of the ball. Herbert, to even the people that love him, they would say
maybe he's not aggressive enough down the field.
But again, that ball security, that's holding on to the football.
So I think this offense is going to look more like a traditional kind of march the ball down the field offense.
They're going to take their shots when they need to.
And you know what that does?
That takes pressure off the defense.
The defense isn't going to be on the field as much.
They're going to be in closer game.
So it's going to be less of a, you know, we got to defend the deficit late and we got to, you know, stop the run and all this stuff.
It's going to be just a more balanced unit as a defense is going to be a more balanced.
team. And so I think you're looking at a physicality, a mentality that is going to benefit a defense
more than an offense just in terms of if you play hard and you play physical and you're into it and
you try that that benefits a defense more than an offense. So you're going to get that boost.
You're going to have maybe only on the field for 27 minutes a game because the offense is on
the field for 33 minutes. You're probably going to be playing with more leads. You're going to get to
rush the passer, which is the two older guys they kept are the two guys who like to.
to rush the passer. And again, I don't think I can, you know, kind of undersell how good
Harbaugh is as a coach and we've seen it at every stop. So I just think that they're going to be
better, quicker than a lot of people think. And they're going to, you know, be a team that's the
sum of their parts more than the individual pieces. But they still got a lot of really good
individual pieces. Yeah, the bet on physicality is, it's a notable one here. And I think a notable one
as you look around the league.
We've talked a little bit about Detroit and just how you think that it really is a rising
tide there where it kind of transcends some of the weaknesses that they have personnel-wise.
And that's the same sort of bet the chargers are making.
I was there last week and talking to people about, oh, all right, well, you didn't really do a lot
at this, but they didn't do much in free agency, period.
It was a financial reset year that they absolutely needed.
So for the most part, they're piecing this thing together.
You know, you're bringing over cheap guys like Bradley Bowman and, you know, you're piecing
together, the defense, one-year deals for guys like Christian Fulton, all bets that
makes sense considering the limitations they had coming into the year. I think that I can get
on board with essentially everything they did from our personnel perspective. So what you're
betting on is that a change in coaching and a change in mindset is what is going to lift this group.
It's a pretty big bet, but in your mind, that can happen. Because the offensive line
specific, I think is a great example of this. You bring in Joel, obviously that's an upgrade,
right? He's a top five pick. Hopefully your right tackle play is going to be significantly better.
But Zion Johnson has been up and down to his first couple years.
Bozeman was kind of actively bad in Carolina last year on one of the worst groups in the league.
And moving Trey Pipkins inside from right tackle to right guard, it's like, I don't know if that's necessarily the cure for some of his ills that we've seen over the last couple years.
Like, I have questions about how all the pieces are going to fit together.
And you talk to people there where there's like, no, we're good.
Because the change in how we approach this, the change in what the priorities are,
change and how much practice time we're spending on certain things, how much meeting time we're
spending on certain things. That's the bet that they're making, that that is going to be the thing
that makes this all feel different. And it sounds like you're actually buying into that a little bit.
Again, I'm just going off of like a 15-year track record of Parbaugh. And again, people want to say,
oh, it's only four years in the NFL. But again, going against Stanford every year,
offensive line, great. 49ers. Offensive line, great. Michigan. Offensive line, great. You know, winning Joe Moore
awards and all these things. Why would we think that that's going to stop with the Chargers now?
They have two tackles who should be cornerstone tackles for the next, you know, 12 plus years.
Again, you got a first rounder that you mentioned Zion Guard who was seen coming in as like one of
the surest guys. So it's been surprising. He's been up and down. And so those are three kind of blue
chippers on the offensive line right there with a coach who's always had good offensive lines.
I just think, yeah, I mean, I guess I could just keep coming back to it. I think we're underselling how
good Harbaugh is at getting the best out of his guys and specifically being great on the
offensive line and the defensive line and what that can do for kind of today's football because
I feel like I always sound like an old man you know like physicality and the modern football
players can't handle it but we've seen the end of the year the four teams that are left are the
most physical teams Baltimore last year I'm with you on this by the way I've been like I've been
toughness built like I this is like a whole thing for me this
year that I just keep coming back to.
For whatever reason, it's like finally clicked for me that this is where we are.
Well, it's like, why was Houston so good last year?
Yeah, C.J. Stroud had an amazing rookie year.
But they were a freaking tough team and their defense line got after guys.
And their offensive line was like sneaky, really good despite some injuries and some reshuffling.
And that's why we're so excited about it because D'Amico brought the work ethic and the
toughness that he played with to that team.
So, yeah, I just think Harbaugh is great.
They have a tremendous quarterback.
know if you're trying to build a franchise you've got one of the you know probably number three guy
that you'd choose right now um just in terms of what he can do for the next 10 years um you've got this
foundation of what the coach brings the offensive line it's just it's a much better situation than we
think and if you're going to be bad at something like be bad at the defensive part of things
when you have the mentality and the toughness and you go about things the right way like just be bad
at skill defensively.
Have a good offense.
Have a great quarterback.
Have a solid offensive line and have a great team.
And if that's the worst part of your team, that's a pretty good team.
Past catchers are still a question, right?
We got Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer and they're going to have to piece those things together.
So I do think that that's a potential limiter of like what the ceiling of the offense can be.
And I know that's, they're going to lean into so many different things.
And it's not going to be Justin Herbert throwing the ball 45 times a game.
So the overall formula of what you're trying to be hopefully makes the past catchers matter less.
But it's still 2024.
You still need some guys on the outside who can make some plays for you, create some separation for you.
And we'll see what that group overall can eventually do.
The defense, Jesse Minter obviously comes from what the Ravens are doing.
That system, I think, is there's a reason that people around the league are stealing it.
I'm really intrigued about what it's going to look like on the back end for them and just some of the things that they're going to deploy.
I think the defense is extremely fragile, though.
You look at it.
They're not very deep because, again, this is a reset year for the roster.
They're piecing this thing together, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
It's one-year deals here.
I mean, they don't have much depth whatsoever at a lot of these spots.
The interior defensive line is kind of like a let's hang on and pray situation.
Not only the guys on the two deep, but the guys that they think are going to start for them.
So I do think that's a fragile situation.
but I'm with you and that I think that team has a chance to be pretty competitive pretty quickly
and better than a lot of people are saying at this point.
Just real quick, before I gave my whole spiel, hopefully I didn't influence you.
Who would you, who are you more optimistic about for this season only?
The Raiders or the Chargers?
The Chargers, 100%.
Okay, see, I feel like.
I think the Raiders have a chance to be the worst team in the league.
See, I feel like people talk about the Raiders and the Chargers in kind of a similar breath.
And I just don't agree with that.
So that's part of, you know, kind of what I've been saying.
and kind of the talk of like, oh, it's the Chiefs,
and then you've got these other three teams
and they're kind of bottom tier.
But I think the Raiders are doing a much worse version
of what the Chargers are doing
with slightly better D-line talent
and a much worse quarterback
and one better receiver,
but a worse O-Line.
So I just thought it's weird
that those teams kind of get all lumped together
in the off-season talk.
Yeah, I just, I'm not super bullish
on what the Raiders offense is going to look like.
I mean, even with the past catching options that they have,
and the line is fine.
You know, I think the line put,
a lot better last year, really over the last two years than a lot of people expected based on
their personnel, but is this offense and this staff going to be able to do the same?
They can be able to make it more than a sum of its parts in that group. I mean, we're one
Devante Adams injury away from this being potentially really ugly on that side of the ball.
And they did a great job on defense last year. I have a ton of respect for Patrick Graham.
I think he does a really good job. I think the defensive line really does have a chance to be
a difference-making group. If you look at it overall, like you drop Wilkins into what they already had.
and I think that the upside for that group is really strong,
and that's why I think that the floor of the defense is probably pretty high
when that's the sort of group that you're looking at.
But the same thing goes for them.
It's fragile on the back end.
They do not have a lot of depth.
They're piecing together that second corner spot.
I think that they had some really nice moments in the back half of last season,
but I think it's probably a lot to ask this group to be like a top tennis unit.
So if you're fighting for tier two defense and your offense has a really, really low floor,
And we have head coach that had one year as an interim, and it went pretty well.
But I do think that that situation is much more volatile than probably people from the outside are giving it credit for as we head into the year.
All right.
Let's get to mine here.
I don't think I'm really buying the Falcons as like the clear NFC favorites, NFC favorites.
I was looking at the betting lines yesterday.
And people thought they dropped in Kirk Cousins in here like full steam ahead like Super Bowl contender.
And I don't think that's necessarily.
has been the talking point all summer.
But if you look at the betting markets, period,
the Falcons are minus 120 right now
on bet MGM to win the NFC South.
Here are the three other teams
who are minus anything to win their division.
The Niners,
the Chiefs, and the Eagles.
And I think the Eagles thing is more a commentary
on the state of the Dallas Cowboys
than it is anything about the Eagles.
And you could probably say the same thing
for the other teams in the NFC South,
but I just don't know
if I necessarily believe that the Falcons as set up right now, even if there are reasons for
optimism, are significantly better than where the Saints and especially the Bucks are.
DVOA right now is predicting the Falcons to have the worst defense in professional football
this year, like dead last.
Wow.
Yes.
I'm not sure I buy that.
You know, they finished 24th last year, but there are some real questions about that unit.
You look at that pass rush.
It's a lot of questions, man.
You got Grady Jared getting up there. David on Yamada's getting up there. Lorenzo Carter, Arnold
Ebaketti, a bunch of day two and day three rookies that they're really banking on to make a difference for them.
You don't think there. There's a lot of questions. Penix can bend the edge there, turn the corner.
He may need to at this point. I mean, that's the spot where he's probably going to get the most work done as a rookie.
And you go to the back end, who's going to play opposite of AJ Terrell and that second corner spot?
I was there in June, and talking to people there, it seemed like it was a wide open competition.
It was like, we're just going to get to camp, and there's going to be three or four guys that we trod out there.
And I have faith with the guys they have on the roster.
Clark Phillips played pretty well last year for them when pushed to the outside, which people didn't really think he'd do,
considering his frame coming into the league.
They signed Antonio Hamilton in Free Agency.
I thought he had a really good year in Arizona last year, but he's getting a little bit older.
So that's why there wasn't much interest in him.
They can piece this thing together, but I don't think it's going to be a,
a great defense by any stretch.
So let's say you're fighting for slightly below average on defense,
even in an optimistic set of outcomes.
And then you go over to the offensive side of the ball.
We got a 36-year-old quarterback coming off of torn Achilles with the first-year
of play caller.
And there's a ton of shared DNA in what the Falcons are going to do and what cousins
did with Kevin O'Con, right?
I think he's going to be better suited to hit the ground running and just understand
a lot of the intricacies and the nuances of that offense checks, language, things that
maybe a little bit more of a barrier for a first year guy.
But even with that, I think there's still some stuff they have to figure out.
This is an outside zone team with an outside zone offensive line coming from a system
where they kind of had faded away from that over the last couple years with the Rams.
And you can figure all that stuff out, but it takes time.
And I think that it's going to take maybe a little bit more time to understand exactly
how all the pieces fit together here,
than it is just going to be a microwave thing from day one.
So if you're looking at the 14th, 15th,
best offense in the league and a slightly below average defense,
I'm just not exactly sure how that puts significant ground
between them and the other teams in the division,
as unexciting as the Bucks and the Saints might be.
So do you think, obviously,
you think the Falcons are maybe worse than people are saying right now?
You also think that Tampa and New Orleans could be better
maybe than people are assuming.
But what percentage of each of those would you put?
Do you think it's more that the Falcons aren't as good as people think,
or do you think the other two teams just have a chance to be better than others think?
I think it's probably a little bit of both.
I think that people look at the skill position talent that the Falcons have,
and they're just like, you know, wheels up, baby.
This is it.
All they needed was Kirk Cousins, and this is going to be a crazy good group.
And I do, I like the pieces.
And I do think in the right situation that it can all come together,
I just am not sure about how quickly it's all going to happen.
It doesn't always happen for offenses in year one.
We want it to, but that's just not always how it goes.
And I just think there's more of a learning curve here than people might anticipate.
And with the Bucks and the Saints, I think people just find them boring.
I think that's part of it.
And the Bucks, like, the Bucks just brought their team back from last year.
Yeah, the Bucks has more like familiarity.
And it's kind of just like, eh, it's been about five years.
I don't know Brady anymore.
It's kind of the same pieces.
The Saints are interesting because DVOA-wise, I think they have the biggest
discrepancy between estimated DVOA wins and like Vegas betting line wins.
They do.
We did a show about that with Aaron Schatz a couple weeks ago.
Yeah.
And I think that's part of it is that DVOA doesn't get bored.
DVOA does not have a soul.
It can't be fatigued of the New Orleans Saints and their whole thing that they do every
single year. And I do think that their offense, you know, the offensive line concerns are super
real. I get that. You know, Chris, Chris, a lot of they got hurt this week. I, but I do think that
there's a chance they're just like an average offense or a slightly below average offense.
And again, if these teams are all just kind of packed in the middle, even if I do think
the Falcons have the highest ceiling, even if I do think they have the best quarterback and the best
offensive talent, I still think the gap between them and the other teams in the division is probably
smaller than we're making it out to be and that a lot of other people have made it out to be
over the course of this entire off season. That's really it. Yeah, no, I see that. And then,
I mean, when you put it in perspective of the other teams with minus odds to win the division,
it does seem pretty ridiculous of their group. Yeah. That's kind of my thinking here. Again,
if I were picking right now, I would still pick the Falcons to win it because I am actually
optimistic about the offense. I think that the way that they want to play does align with the
skill sets of the position players in a way that I think we're going to see potentially the best
version of Drake London. I think we're going to potentially see the best version of Bejohn Robinson,
but I don't necessarily think this is like a top 10 group from day one. And if there's going to
be a little bit more of a process there, I just think that we've been a little bit too quick to crown
them as a significantly better team than some of the guys that they're going to be playing
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All right, let's get to your next one here.
You wanted to talk about the Ravens and just where they kind of sit in the pecking order of the AFC
or how that's been framed recently.
Yeah, most of what I've seen just kind of has Kansas City 1 and Baltimore, too.
And I'm not sure that Baltimore is just like, yeah, they're the second best team,
which again, not everyone thinks they're the second best team,
but it does seem like to me and some of the stuff I've seen,
some of the stuff I've heard.
We just kind of think, you know, it's like Kansas City and Baltimore conference
and then, you know, kind of figure it out from there.
Baltimore had a career year last year when you look at the totality of how good the offense was,
how good the defense was.
Now, I'm not going to go off of like playoff results.
They lost to the great Kansas City team.
They lost to the best quarterback, you know.
I just think in terms of how they can perform on the field this year,
can they be as good?
Are they, like, for sure going to be that top two team?
I'm not entirely sure.
They lost three offensive line starters.
I think that's a big thing.
While they're always good at the position, while they always replenish, that still is a factor.
You know, Ronnie Stanley, one of the guys that rely on is not necessarily the healthiest alignment at this point, which is unfortunate.
But if you lose three starters and you've got a left tackle that you're constantly, you know, pulling out of games and rotating and all those things, you're kind of like down three and a halfish starters from what, you know, is realistic.
Again, Lamar can be that good again, but are you going to have an MVP season every single year?
Are you going to stay healthy and be able to play 15, 16 games to that level every single year?
That's kind of the old Madden Curse regression.
It's not that the guys got worse.
It's just they were coming off career years.
And they might be 90% of what they were, but that's technically worse.
Still a great quarterback, but not the best of your ability.
And then defensively, I mean, Clowny isn't by himself.
He had his best year ever.
but he's not by himself like the piece that solidifies the defense.
But that is a loss for them because of how much, you know,
production he provided for them from a sack perspective.
And, you know,
they're going to miss him.
There's no denying that they're going to miss him.
The way that that group is constructed right now,
he's an elite run defender.
And the way that group is constructed right now,
I mean,
they're really banking on a guy like OJabo.
And I think that Owe did some really nice things last year.
Obviously, Van Nuoy was really productive after they brought him in there.
But now, you know, it's kind of the way you change the pecking.
order. When Clani was there, it's like, oh, well, what don't we get from Van Nuoy is kind of a bonus? You know,
OA can kind of be a secondary one B sort of pass rusher. Now the dynamic shifts. I mean, you're asking
more from guys as you move down the list. And I think that's always a little bit dicey if you're not
replenishing the cupboard. And it's still a question with a guy like a job. And I don't know who
the mercenary pass rusher du jour out there might be. I think it was probably Kyle Van Nuoy.
and they're done adding guys there potentially.
Yeah, and I mean, you look at the roster,
you look at the depth chart,
are the corners going to be that good?
I mean, I think you start looking and you got, you know,
I think they have a chance to be better there this year.
Do you?
Yeah, I think they have a chance to be better there this year.
Corners specifically, I know the safety is are really good, but.
Corner specifically, yeah, because last year it was, it was Humphreys,
it was Humphrey and Stevens on the outside,
and then when they would be in their normal nickel with Hamilton at safety,
they bring in Arthur Millett.
This year, it seems like Nate Wiggins, their first round pick is going to be on the outside with Stevens,
and then Humphrey's going to play a little bit more inside when they're in those looks,
and then it's going to be Humphrey and maybe Stevens on the outside when Nick Kyle Hamilton comes down to the nickel.
I think there's a chance that secondary is just as good or better than it was a year ago.
They lost Gino Stone, but they kind of had Eddie Jackson now in that role where it's just like,
we just need kind of a stable force as a third safety so we can use Hamilton,
in the way we want to.
Well, I guess to me, Humphrey,
it's just how long are you going to bank on that level of production,
given the age?
I feel like it's hard to say he's going to be as good.
I guess I could see that as a wash,
but like defense line probably not as good.
Offensive line probably not as good.
Lamar coming off a career year,
you lose a linebacker,
whether that's the Roquant effect or not.
Who's going to play next to him is going to play at the same level.
I just feel like they might be a little bit worse across the board,
and that makes them,
you know, maybe not a solidified top two team.
So I still think they're going to be a good team.
I just don't know that they're going to be as good as obviously as people are saying
that they're going to be.
I think it's totally fair.
I mean, even if you go from being the best defense in the league, like pretty clearly
the best defense in the league, I think by the end of the season, obviously the Browns
were such a fucking bus saw last year in the right moments.
But I think that week in and week out, the Ravens were the hardest defense to play against
last season.
And so if you go from being that every single week to merely,
a top five team with a new defensive play caller,
then how do you make up the ground elsewhere?
And I think there are questions about whether the offense can.
I will say,
one of mine that I wanted to talk about is,
I think the offensive line concerns might be a little bit overblown.
Right?
Like, John Simpson came in last offseason as a guy that the Raiders did not want, right?
I mean, he was a guy that you could sign for nothing.
And they got the best play of his career out of him.
He gets a nice deal with the Jets.
When the Ravens got Morgan Moses,
it's not like they were paying a ton for Morgan Moses.
I mean, that was another kind of low-cost move that they made just to have a solid starter
at that spot.
And the right side of the line is a question.
There's no denying that.
I mean, they're just kind of cycling through options right now.
The way that it currently stands, as of today, the guy's getting first team reps,
Daniel Falulele, there's 6-8-38-pound.
Big dude.
Swing tackle is playing right guard for them right now.
And so Patrick McCarrie, who's typically been their swing linemen over the years,
he's played some center.
He's played tackle last year when guys were banged up.
Right now, he's getting the reps at right tackle.
And then you look at left guard,
Andrew Voorhees, who they drafted in the seventh round last year
because he was coming off a torn ACL.
I don't think there was like any question that he was going to be the starter at left guard.
Like they came into this offseason.
He's got that spot solidified.
We're a week into camp.
He's never played.
That's a set it and forget it thing for them.
I think that's how confident they are and what he can provide for them on that side.
So I just trust their ability to figure this out.
If they were relying on Roger Rosengarten from day one to be a starter for them as a second round pick with a few concerns,
I would feel a little bit weary about that.
But McCarrie has been good enough.
And I trust that they can figure out that right guard spot however it ends up going.
Follway has some conditioning concerns.
And I wonder if they're willing to like rotate guys in because they've done that in other spots.
So if you can just like literally piece that together and McCarrie can give you enough at right tackle, I still think that overall the environment associated with this offense can lift this group.
Like this has been a top five rushing offense with Lamar every single year.
Pretty much no matter what.
And I do trust the inertia of that to kind of overcome some of the questions you might have about the offensive line personnel.
Yeah, I mean, I feel like there were a lot of ifs.
there was an if on the right guard and if on the right tackle and if on the left.
There's a lot of ifs.
There's a lot of ifs.
I mean,
I see it.
I think the thing with the team that I maybe didn't speak about because I feel like it's been beat down is the coordinator change on the defensive side.
And not just him, but you lose two other guys who are quality assistance.
And so that plus, like I said, the defense line, the other linebacker potentially corners secondary.
I probably should have explicitly said that.
I just feel like we've talked about Mike McDonnell leaving to death.
So this is kind of one of my questions here.
I don't disagree with a lot of the stuff that you're saying.
And I do think that there's a chance the offense can actually be better than it was a year ago.
You just kind of, you streamline some of the things you were doing.
You learn about yourself.
I think that Lamar has a better sense of some pre-snap things after talking to people
there yesterday where it's like we have better, we have more faith in our ability to get to
premium place.
Like just a sense of like how the offense is supposed to work, what his options are, etc.
It's a lot of like bullshit into year two coach speak, but I actually think there could be some validity to it.
If you think about the ways they use their skill position players, the role sort of changed over the course of last year.
They understood a little bit more who Zay Flowers was.
Isaiah likely is a piece.
I do think the offense has like a pretty high ceiling.
But even if we're not necessarily buying the ability of that to overcome the defensive regression, if it's not the Ravens, who is it for you?
Because I think that's my biggest question.
Even if I'm a little bit down on them, I don't know who I would.
into that spot below Kansas City.
And that's why I think that they still have a fighting chance to be that team.
No, I think they, again, I think they have a fighting chance.
I just feel like they're just seen as the number two team in the AFC.
And that gets to my other not necessarily buying, which is Buffalo.
I think they're going to be really good.
And I think they're by the end of the season, we're with you on this.
I'm with you on this.
As the number two team because honestly, I don't even think it's all the names that they
lost.
I feel like we're kind of past that and that people are now are kind of smart.
enough to know that once guys get on the other side of 30 and you kind of need to, you know,
get rid of some cap and get rid of some guys. You're not necessarily losing, you know,
the age 26, 27, 28 production of all those names. But you look at the second half of last year
offensively. They kind of figured out what they wanted to do. They figured out who they wanted to be.
They started taking the pressure off of Josh. They started running the ball a lot better.
The offensive line's been really good for a while and I think probably better than people
realize for a while as well. We referenced earlier Deon Dawkins,
some of the fun stuff they do schematic-wise to highlight their best offensive line players.
The receiver position, I mean, the digs thing has been talked to death, but it's a pretty good
unit that complements each other really well, and you drop in Keon, who's exciting, and
you would think that the best version of him is going to be catching balls from Josh Allen.
And, I mean, this gets super hot takey, but, like, is Josh Allen underrated at this point?
Like, I think we're kind of forgetting just how good he is as a quarterback.
Don't get me, don't get me started.
It's a bad road. I don't want to go down there.
We've got too much of that recently.
Right. So we've got all that.
And then defensively, they've always been pretty good.
It's just been injuries.
And like, yeah, Milano's probably not going to come back 100% of the player he was,
just given the gravity of that injury.
They moved on from some big names, you know, secondary-wise especially.
But they've been investing in the defense line position for a while,
both with money and with draft picks.
So you'd like to think that's going to kind of bear fruit
and going to be a position that plays well.
I think we all agree that McDermott does things to come out.
that we like defensively.
And it's just like they've always had good players.
They're going to replenish them.
And they're probably not going to be as bad as people think
because of the unfamiliarity with the names now that that chart looks so different.
It's just been a really good team for a really long time.
And they've got one of the two or three best quarterbacks in the NFL.
And that side of the ball is much more solidified than the other side of the ball,
which is more important.
I think they're going to be a really good team.
And if they can stay moderately healthy compared to how they've been in the past,
Yeah, I think we're going to be looking at that AFC East and think like, man,
did we really think Miami and New York would contend with Buffalo for the top spot?
And yeah, I could see, you know, Week 17 coming down to the wire and, you know, Kansas City and Buffalo are going fourth for the one seat.
And, you know, if they play each other, which team has the advantage there.
So I'm excited for them this year.
The bills on offensive followed pretty similar to playbook to what the Chiefs did after they had to pay.
Patrick Moms and you have to start skimping in some places.
And I mean, it's literally almost to a T, like exactly the same playbook.
They don't have Travis Kelsey, but that you add a real sense of physicality up front.
You can really lean on the run game in a way you couldn't before.
And the Chiefs run game wasn't very good last year.
But in 2022, it was good, you know, and you have Creed, you have Joe Tuni, you have Trey
Smith.
It's just a different vibe with that group than it was when they had all the soft guys in the previous iteration, you know, the right tackle just like.
Yeah, the 2016 to 2020.
So, yeah, it's just like that, you just, you wanted more from that chief's offensive line between 2016 and 2020.
But the, by leaning into that, I think you kind of, you create a consistency in something you can rely on.
And you hope that your quarterback can lift a young, inexperienced or kind of, you know, a group with questions at the past catching spots.
I think that that's how I would say it.
And the chiefs were in that spot last year outside of Kelsey.
And it had the bills are trying to build it, a simple.
more way. You know, you build it around a tight end as perhaps your most dynamic pass catcher.
You try to find complimentary skill sets outside of that. I mean, like, MVS is literally there.
The reports are saying he might not be there.
It might not be. And maybe that's a good thing, right?
But if he is there, Josh Allen guaranteed MVP based on what MVS has been saying.
And I think that I have faith in that working because I think that Josh Allen is so good that even if it's a diet version of how Mahomes lifts everything else around him, I think that you can make a similar.
bet and expect pretty similar results, if not to the same extent.
And, you know, Andy Reid isn't there, all that stuff.
But being able to create the eighth best offense in the league with the group that they
have right now combined with a defense that I'm with you, like the defensive line,
it's the same old fucking story, man.
Like, I wish they had more juice along the defensive line.
It's a lot of good players, no great players.
But I just think that it's a solid unit overall with not a ton of questions.
The safety is going to be something that they figure out.
but Taylor Raps going into year two.
Speaking of the Chief's playbook, they have Mike Edwards as their third safety.
They got enough bodies there.
We'll see what Cole Bishop does as a rookie.
I just think that that group overall and Sean McDermann and Josh Allen deserve the benefit of the doubt.
They do not have enough weaknesses for me to say they are definitively no longer the best team in the AFC East until proven otherwise.
Yeah, and I think the difference between what Allen can kind of do to an offense and what Mahomes does is there are those,
probably seven to eight plays a game that chiefs-wise are going to be passes
and you're going to be kind of relying on Mahomes to make it right
and the receivers to get open and all those things.
But those seven to eight plays a game in the Buffalo offense can be Josh Allen run plays.
Or they could be, you know, things that take a little bit of pressure off the receivers
and lean a little bit more into that run game and kind of shift the run-pass ratio.
So they don't have to do quite as much quite as often.
And they can kind of, you know, pick and choose their spots to really highlight the receivers
And so I think...
So what you're saying, Mitchell Schwartz,
is saying that you think that Josh Allen
is just a more dangerous player
than Patrick Mahomes.
What's the Oceans 13?
Pellegroso is my nomadre merio.
No, dangerous is the word to throw on that spicy take
you just threw at me.
I think you can use his legs more
and use him as a battering ram
and design more things in the run game
to take pressure off the rest of the office.
offense that you can design for Patrick, but because he is so much better than everyone else in the league, you wouldn't dare put him at risk.
That's a very diplomatic answer. I'm with you. We've talked about this on a couple different shows. I do think that collectively people are a little bit too low on this team. And I'm actually excited to see what kind of the 3.0 version of the Josh Allen offense looks like. And, you know, what this new sort of rebant version on defense can be. You know, it's a little injection of youth. And I think that the corner room is still really good, you know, the way that they peeped.
that together. I think the Russell Douglas trade was, I was going to say inspired. It's probably
strong. But I think it was, I think it was well done. I think I think that it protected them
heading into this year when, you know, Trey White's going to be a question. They've got to figure that
out. I think they've pieced it together pretty well in the same way that that group in the front
office has for years. You know, there are questions about the ceiling because of the way that they've
drafted. But I think they're, they've been really proactive in making sure, are we at least safe at
this spot? Do we have answers at this spot? They've done that really every single season that
Brandon Bean has been there. And I think when you combine that with really dynamic play from the
most important position, you're always going to be in a decent place. And I think that's kind of
how I feel about this year's bills. Yeah. And it's interesting. I mean, as we've kind of talked about
Baltimore or their offensive line, you brought up, me of the Chargers, Buffalo, we're kind of
putting stock into kind of history and infrastructure. And some people might say we're overvaluing
that. But I do think there is a lot of value in it. And it's not a certain.
like just because you were good, you're going to stay good.
I mean, we're giving valid reasons for why we think they're going to keep being good.
But being good the last three to five years is an indicator that you're probably going to
be good in the future.
And if you've done things the right way in the NFL and you've kept up with the times and
you've been able to modernize and change things and still be good over that time period,
I do like your changes moving forward.
And so I think that maybe is something that we're seeing between our collective thoughts here.
It's good to stay in the AFC East here with my next one.
I'm just not sure that I like immediately buy the Jets as a Super Bowl contender.
You know, and there are some places where there's maybe people are a little bit more
lukewarm on them than that.
They're projected to finish 18th in offensive DVOA, which I actually think kind of feels
more right than them being a top 10 scoring offense, which if you look at projected points,
they're projected to be a borderline top 10 kind of elite offense.
And I'm just not sure I buy that.
But then you look at Super Bowl odds, they have like the ninth or 10th best odds,
depending on where you look.
They're ahead of the dolphins.
They're ahead of the Rams.
They're right in line with the Packers and Cowboys.
And I just have more questions about that group than I do about some of the teams that are clustered around them when you're looking at projections, odds, over unders, all of that.
The offense, I think 18th is probably about right if I was trying to play out a thousand simulations.
You have a 40-year-old quarterback coming off of a torn Achilles, right?
That's a real thing.
It's a real thing to worry about what he is going to.
going to physically look like heading into this season.
And there's a chance that he blows it away and he plays like MVP Aaron Rogers.
I would never count that guy out again from a football perspective based on how many times
it feels like he's kind of crawled back and asserted himself as one of the best players in the
league.
He can absolutely do that again.
But you look at the personnel around him and I understand that the offensive line
is significantly better.
Last year was an outlier in terms of how healthy Tyrant Smith was.
And even if you're slotting a first round rookie in there, which is not a bad contingency,
plan.
Lucky tackles are a crapshoot, man.
Who knows how that's going to go?
So then some of the other guys, they added, like, you know, Morgan Moses is getting a little
up there in age.
I think that that unit has a chance to be really good.
I don't think it's necessarily a guarantee that they, over the course of a 17 game season,
they're like a top 10 offensive line.
And you look at the past catching spots, like, what do we think Mike Williams is
at this point in his career?
He's going to turn 30 this season.
Even if you didn't take into account any of the injury history that he has,
When you get to 30 as a wide receiver, especially as a vertical wide receiver, things can go really south, really fast.
And then you take into account that he's missed 18 games over the last two years.
He's averaged over 70 receiving yards in a season where he played more than three games one time.
Wow.
The idea of Mike Williams, I think, is very enticing.
But in reality, it hasn't been what you wanted to be.
So if the offensive line has questions, if the past catching spots have questions, and the group in charge of the,
this offense last year. It was catastrophically bad.
Like, catastrophically bad. And I know that the quarterback play is going to be much, much better,
but I just think there are way more question marks about this offense specifically than most
people have spent time talking about this offseason, at least from my perspective. And again,
the fact that DVOA has them 18th, I think that that that's kind of a cold, like sober look at what
the most likely outcome for this unit probably is. And if they're the 18th,
best offense, how good do you need to be on defense to be a real Super Bowl contender?
We're going to do top 10 defenses next week. I probably have the Jets at one based on continuity
and based on some of the talent that they have. But I still think that there are questions
about that group. They're not as deep on the defensive line. It's really hard to stay good on
defense year over year. They've been healthy at some of the most important positions. So I get
it. I think I said when we did our show about who can win the Super Bowl that the Jets were in there,
I think they have to be because there is a pathway for them.
I think that pathway is just a little bit narrower than some people might heading into the year.
I think defensively, when you think about the Jets, it's been kind of solid D-line coming from San Fran.
I don't know that they're going to be as good D-line-wise this year as people think they are.
You look at the depth chart and you've got some young guys who are playing.
You've got Hassan Reddick who hasn't shown up and is displeased.
you're, you know, one Quinn and Williams growing issue away from, I mean, Kinlaw is the starter
next to him on the depth chart that I saw. I don't think that's great. Like, in terms of going to be
the best defense aligned in the league and leading the best defense in the league. Now, you look at,
you know, the linebackers in the secondary. You're like, okay, I get it. Like, pretty stacked back there.
But we don't typically see defenses that are led by the back end. They are not deep, though. They are not
deep. And yeah, I don't think they have to necessarily be led by the back end. I don't,
think you could make an argument the line isn't as good as it's been over the last couple
years because of the chipping away at some of the depth, right?
Like, no John Franklin Myers.
Quinn Jefferson was really good for them last year as a rotational piece.
You know, we'll see what Hassan Reddick is for Bryce Huff.
But I still think that the back end is good enough that that pass rush might clear
the bar it needs to for this to be a very, very good defense.
I think your point is well taken, though, about the group overall up front.
But I think it gets to your point that if the offense is 15th to 18th, we're kind of putting
the Jets in the Super Bowl contenders because of the number one defense? What if it's the sixth best
defense? How good then does the offense need to be? And can I get to number eight, number seven overall to
kind of offset not being the number one defense? And so that's where I'm agreeing with you. I think,
is the D-line going to be good enough to allow them to kind of be that number one defense? I just think
it's not going to be quite as good. So I think that gets to like the full picture that you're drawing,
even though what you're drawing is more offensive based on the defense.
you're right about that. I actually think it's a good thing for me to hear because I probably
should reframe that a bit. Because for them to actually do that, if you're going to be an average
offense, right? And I think an average offense is, I don't think that's like discrediting where they are.
I think that's a perfectly fair way to see this group. If you're going to be an average offense,
to be a Super Bowl team, you have to be a transcendent defense, like a once every couple years
defense for you to be able to win it. And for the most part, those defenses are built on
past rushes. Those defenses are built on getting after the quarterback and creating havoc and
turnovers. There's some exceptions to that. Like Baltimore wasn't really that kind of defense last
year. But if you look back over history, that's typically the types of groups that we're talking about.
You know, the Kaleo Mack Bears in 2018, 2017 with the Jags, you know, when Kalaeus Campbell was
incredible. Yonik and Gokwe had that amazing year. I mean, you really need to create a ton of
turnovers in order to be that sort of team.
A ton of sacks.
You need negative explosive plays.
And it's hard to be that sort of group if you're not going to be utterly dominant up front.
And I think that there's a chance they are.
You know, if there's a chance that Will McDonald comes in and plays well.
If Kinlock can stay healthy.
Like that's within the range for them.
But it's hard to bet on that sort of season when there are more questions about the
personnel than I think there have been over the last couple of years.
Yeah.
And the flip side just real quick is,
I'd like to think that the offense is going to be better.
And even for them, average offensive play is going to feel like they're playing
with the Patrick Roams offense.
So they should get that emotional and confidence boost of playing with an offense that they
now trust and that they enjoy and that isn't going to hang them out.
And so, yeah, again, I'd like to think that they're going to get that boost.
So that is a positive for their defense that they probably, you know, haven't seen the past few years
or by the end of the year they're just so beat down by, you know, three and out after three
and out and turn over after turnover, that they just are like, man, what can we even do at this point?
That's what's so impressive that they've been able to maintain that level of play on the defensive
side of the ball despite being demoralized every single week.
I honestly, I think that there's been, it's been a mixed bag, the Robert Sawyer
Jets, to say the least.
I think that that staff deserves a shitload of credit for getting that defense to continue
to play at that level, considering what it has looked like on.
the other side of the ball. That's hard. It is hard to do that year in and year out the way they have
over the last couple of years. And I don't think that we acknowledge that enough when talking
about this team and talking about the job that Salah and that staff have done because that is
not easy by any stretch. You wanted to stick in the AFC East here because there is a team that
you think, again, maybe we're a little bit too low on considering where they sit right now.
Yeah, New England, four and a half wins. That's incredibly low. That's, that's, that's,
It's very low.
That's a lot.
That's 2023 Cardinals low.
Yeah.
And that's just like, where's New England going to be worse than last year?
Like the defense was really good.
They started to lose some guys and the defense slipped a little bit.
They lose Belichick.
I fully understand that.
You know, they're losing a brilliant defense of mind.
But they should be healthier.
And as we've seen, they're resigning all their guys,
whether that is the smart thing to do, you know, long term, I'm not sure.
But they should be, you know, similar.
I think it's a good.
I'm curious how you think about this.
with the resigning guys.
I feel like it is a good first step forward as a new staff and a new regime.
Like if you want to create buy-in and like create a certain like, all right, this is our
group.
Like I do think that there is there's benefits to that where it's just a good note on which to
start things and like the way that you're treating the locker room.
Do you think I'm overstating that?
Good buy-in comes from winning and.
Fair.
Continued high-in winning comes from having cap space to pay blue chip players.
So I see both sides of it.
I think would you rather have, you know,
40 million in cap space instead of signing some guys
who were solid players but not anything spectacular
in two years if Drake May ends up being who you think he is
as opposed to, you know, solidifying, you know,
seven to nine win core right now?
I don't know.
But to my point, I think it's a seven to nine win core.
And when you're looking at them as four and a half wins,
that's a lot better than you're getting credit for.
You know, I think the O line is going to be better
than we think.
You go down the list of...
You do?
Well, I think they're going to be better than 30 second.
Everyone thinks they're going to be 32nd.
You've been hearing rave reviews of the new offensive line coach
and this whole strike system and how he's coaching them.
I think offensively, they're going to be more cohesive.
They're going to have better quarterback play.
Brissette is most likely going to be the guy to start.
I think he's one of the best 32 quarterbacks in the NFL.
He's shown that when he plays, he's 27th, 20s.
you know, 20th best depending on the scheme and depending on who's around him,
better than Mac Jones last year, that's for sure.
I think, you know, receivers, they're going to be a little bit better than they have been.
You know, they're replenishing that a little bit.
And so you look at every offensive position group,
I think it's better than it's going to be or maybe I think better than what it's projected to be,
which is, again, pretty much 30 second across the board.
And then defensively, again, they were a tremendous defense.
last year and I just don't think they've lost enough, whether it's brain power-wise,
or whether it's talent, whether it's health, to say that they shouldn't be a top defense.
And so you combine, again, even if pessimistically you want to say a top 10 defense with an
offense that's 21st, I think that's better than four and a half one.
21st feels rich to me, man.
I don't know.
Even if you're optimistic about how the O-line and how the pass catchers can shake out,
I think even in the best case scenario, we're like decidedly blind.
average in both of those spots.
Even if you think that you're...
20-1st is below average when average is 16.5.
I don't know, man.
I think the 21st is probably optimistic.
Okay.
We're talking about a first year play caller.
26th.
Let's say 26th with that defense.
To me, again, that's a 7 to 8-1 team.
Yeah.
I'm not saying that they're going to be a top three, a top five, top 10 team.
I just don't think they're going to be a guaranteed basement team who's like going into
week 16 and they've got two wins.
and we're saying, oh, what's their draft slot going to be?
They just towed the quarterback.
You know, if they get number one, are they going to be able to trade it?
And I just don't think we're going to be at that point getting to week 15, 16, 17, where they've only got, you know, three wins.
I think they're going to be three-ish wins above their projected.
And to me, that is a pretty wide margin.
So that's a team that's much better than we're talking about in terms of the not buying the, you know, four and a half win projected total.
Yeah, I don't disagree with you.
I think the Christian Barmore thing worries me.
I think that he was really good for them, and we'll see what happens with Keon White.
But having that interior presence when they don't have monsters on the edge,
Judon coming back from injury.
It's a good group, but I think Barmar was key and kind of making that whole thing go when he was on the field.
But they were the most injured defense in football last year.
Like their secondary is going to be much healthier and still a really good group.
And even without Belichick, I think, having some scheme continuity and some of the same people
in the building, I do believe that they can get
a lot out of that group, even if
they're not maximizing it the way the best
defensive coach of all time could.
I don't really know what to make of the offense.
I'm with you, and then I'm really excited to see
what Scott Peters, their new offensive line coach, can do
with that group. He was under Bill Callahan
for years in Cleveland.
I think that absolutely was a guy deserving of
his own shot to have his own room. Now he does.
The personnel just worries
me. I don't,
on one who I think is still probably a better
guard than a tackle, but you need to play him a tackle.
based on the other pieces that you have.
Are we really cool with like Chuck Sikorfor,
just playing left tackle over the course of the year at the guard spots?
But again, 32nd in the NFL?
I don't think so.
I think better than that.
Who is worse?
Offensive line was?
I don't know.
I mean, you'd probably have to think about that a little bit.
But again, I think New England's thing has always been like when Skarnakia was there,
they had a good O line.
When Scarnacia wasn't there, they didn't have a good O line.
I think they finally have another good old line.
I think they finally have another good offensive line coach.
And so the names don't seem sexy.
The names don't seem great.
Pittsburgh's O-line has been basically terrible in the last few years overall.
So you're getting a guy who's come from a system that's harbored no real success
and no real development from any of the young guys to, again, a coach who,
it seems like, understands what he's doing and is getting the best out of guys.
It's just kind of a feeling.
I don't necessarily say that this is the most empirically.
smart thing I've ever put out there, but I just think four and a half wins is so low in today's NFL
with all the variability, all the things that can go wrong. I mean, Miami, I feel like we're one year
removed from everyone freaking out about to his health. And is he still the safest bet to, you know,
be healthy the whole season? It seems like yes, because the ball's out of his hands instantaneously
with, you know, 80 yards downfield of vertical speed. But, um,
you know, could they be maybe a little worse?
And one of the games, too, isn't playing, and that's a New England win?
Yes, we just talked about the Jets not being as good as people think.
There are some wins there.
And you're playing a, you know, kind of a basement schedule in terms of how you get matched up to the other team.
So, yeah, four and a half wins just seems, you know, far too low for me.
And I think seven to eight wins is fair, whether they can get there and whether it looks like that on paper at this exact moment.
I can't say that's a certainty.
But for me, that was just the team that I'm not buying just how bad.
bad they're going to be and just how bad we've been talking about them all off season.
Yeah, I think that's fair.
And I think the defense is a chance to pull them above that level.
And the reason, I think the floor for the offense is very low.
Let me say this.
If it was just Jacoby Percette and the group that we're talking about, like,
Jaylon Polk being your most dynamic receiver, real questions about the offensive line
personnel, first time play caller, like, again, just first time play caller coming in and
bringing an offense with him and a system with him that I think they did a lot of interesting stuff in Cleveland,
but I don't think this is necessarily like a, we're going to maximize all of our pieces sort of system.
I think that the way that Browns played at their best was really an expression of that offensive line and Nick Chubb,
neither of which exists on the New England Patriot's step chart.
Like, remandre is fine, but the offensive line is not what it was.
And so the formula that really made that Brown's team go when they were at their best,
I think you're going to struggle to tap into that formula.
So if it was Berset and all of those component parts,
I think the floor for the offense would be extremely low.
But the thing is, if it's that bad,
you can just go tap the crazy talented dude you took third overall
and drop him into this thing.
And even if the results are probably going to be wildly volatile,
I still think that what he is,
just from a pure ball of talent perspective,
raises that floor a little bit.
And I think that's why the disaster
Outcomes are just harder for me to imagine with this group because the contingency plan is a dude who is like wildly talented.
Yeah.
So, I mean, I actually still think the floor is 32.
Like I think there is a chance that they're the worst offense.
I don't think that that's, you know, one of the more plausible outcomes.
But I think it's an outcome that could exist.
Yes.
I agree that.
The ceiling is maybe a little higher than people think.
And I think of the list of possible outcomes, it's slightly more towards the high 20s than it is low.
20s and 30s. And so that's kind of where I settle on. It's not like, I don't think this is going to be
the 12th best offense. I don't think they're going to get, you know, above at best low teens.
Pop Douglas better be real good if they're going to be the 12 best offense, man.
Yeah, 19 quarterbacks had season ending injuries on September 1st. Oh, God, don't put that on me.
As somebody who has to watch the league every single week the way that I do, if we got like a dozen
quarterback injuries, I would quit my job. We got a couple more here. I also wanted to talk about a
team that I just don't think is going to be as bad as people think.
I just don't buy the Seahawks as like a firmly below average or below 500 team.
Right now, they're over under is seven and a half.
The same team, here are some other teams with a seven and a half over under.
Arizona, the Saints, the Bucks and the Vikings.
I just don't believe that the Seahawks are in that tier of teams.
Really?
Like the Cardinals had the worst defense in football last year, like by far the
worst defensive football last year. Their big moves were to go get Sean Murphy Bunting, Justin
Jones, Ballal Nichols, and then a lot of day two picks in the secondary and one tweener defensive
lineman. It is going to be significantly better personnel-wise on that side of the ball than it was last year.
I want to be clear about this. But it's not like this is an uber talented group.
Like, I think shooting for below average on defense is just fine for the 2024 Cardinals.
I'm intrigued by what the offense could look like, but there's still a ton of questions about the personnel up front.
How good is Marvin Harrison Jr. going to be in a year two?
I think you can make an optimistic case for what Kyler is, but there's still a ton of questions there.
The Vikings, it's Sam Darnold.
Like, it's Sam Darnold.
There are still questions about the defense.
We talked about the Saints and the Bucks.
He throws a beautiful ball.
I just, even if I can find the optimistic cases on all of those teams,
I just think they're easier to make with the Seahawks.
The Seahawks were a borderline top 10 offense last year with a decimated offensive line.
And a coordinator that I think is capable but not exceptional, right?
That's not how I see Shane Waldron.
The offensive line concerns are still very real, but I think the offense is a chance to be good.
Like just plain good.
The skill position in depth chart, it's pretty impressive when you look at it and realize who's still there.
And it's not even just the depth chart.
for me, it's the deployment.
When we have college offensive coordinators and college play callers coming into the league,
oftentimes it's these guys, I don't want to say Mickey Mouse is a derogative,
but it's these guys who run offenses and system designed for the college game that were so successful
that the NFL decided, let's try this.
It's typically like the Chip Kelly's of the world or, you know, cliff to a certain extent.
That's not what Washington's offense was last year.
For the most part, there is a ton of carrier.
over between who Washington was on offense and where the NFL is right now.
So the schematic carryover and the fact that their new play caller, he's done this.
He has been a play caller.
He understands how to do this job and the bones of what he does are applicable to where
the NFL is.
And then you look at the talent.
Like the receivers they have and the archetypes of receivers they have and the
quarterback they have and the archetype of quarterback that they have perfectly align with
what this system is.
So I have faith in the system and I have faith in the players and they've already shown an ability to be a top 12-ish offense with this group.
I think that you could make an argument.
They'll be in that same range again.
And I just don't think the defensive personnel is that bad.
I think they're guys up front.
I think it's a solid group.
I think it's a deep group.
The secondary, I think Tariq Wallen is a chance to have a real bounce back season.
They are excited about him.
And Devin Witherspoon is one of those guys that I think this is a year where he could go from being somebody that's exciting to like a,
a full-blown superstar.
And I just am not that worried about some of the weaker points.
I don't think they're that much worse at safety.
I don't think that they're that much worse at linebacker.
And we have a guy that was the best defensive play caller in the NFL last year,
now overseeing what that unit could potentially look like.
So if this group is average on defense and a borderline top 10 offense,
that's a team that can fight to be a playoff team.
And I think that that's where they are more than lame duck,
Saints,
bucks,
like where the Cardinals
trying to rebuild.
I just don't see
that team this way.
Yeah,
it's interesting.
I mean,
you make a lot of good points.
I think when you look
at the wind totals,
you're talking about
two games against San Fran,
two games against the Rams.
The division is the problem,
right?
And I get that.
I'm fully wondering
to see that.
But the Cardinals
play in the same division.
Yeah,
but they have the lasers.
McDonald didn't bring lasers to Seattle.
Here's my question
defensively.
Obviously,
tremendous defensive coach.
which gets the best out of his players.
The end of the year, Baltimore, what we saw from them,
the stuff they were able to do,
what percentage schematically do you think McDonald will have them at
by the end of the year?
Now, that's probably less important than the actual coaching of skill,
of these are your technique coaching points.
This is how it fits into the defenses I'm going to call.
But just in terms of the best version of the McDonald playbook
and what we saw in Baltimore,
how close do you think by the end of the year
he can get Seattle to just from like a purely this is what I'm bringing into a game perspective.
I think pretty close.
Really?
I think Kyle Hamilton is one of the more unique players in the entire league in terms of what he's capable of.
But I do think that what they've built on the back end, I think there's a solid amount of flexibility.
Like they're going to, Kavon Wallace is going to, I think, be their third safety-ish.
And I think that they're still figuring all of this out in terms of deployment, in terms of how guys are going to be used.
But I do think that in the right circumstances,
when you bump
Weatherspoon inside in some of those looks.
And I think they're going to play probably more dime than the Ravens played over the last
couple years just because with Baltimore, it was hard to take those two linebackers off
the field.
With the Seawks, I don't think that's going to be the case.
So I do think that even if it's not going to be the exact same personnel groupings,
and even if you're not going to be able to treat teams the same because Hamilton's such a unicorn,
I do think that the flexibility on the back end is going to be there.
And I think you can make an argument that top to bottom,
the front is better than the group that they had in Baltimore last year.
That's going to garner some eyebrow raises from people, but continue.
Chedevian Clowny was available in the middle of August last year.
But they got the most out of him.
Like it was again.
Okay.
So why won't he get the most out of these guys?
This is a coach who has shown a proven.
He has done this.
Didn't Chuck Smith come into Baltimore and he's kind of the duan guru?
Is he in Seattle?
Yes, that is fair. No, he is still in Baltimore. I saw him yesterday. So I think that I think that's fair. And listen, there are real questions about this. It's notable. Typically, when you come as a new head coach, you're bringing guys with you. You know, you're bringing at least one, two assistants. He didn't bring anybody. I mean, it is all guys from differing backgrounds. They're defensive coordinators with the Cowboys last year. A lot of the guys that they have are from different systems. And I don't, I'm curious how that goes. I think it
probably be overstated, you know, to make sure that you have a lot of guys that you know.
But Mike having to teach not just the players, but the staff, like what they want to do on
defense, there is a chance that that can lead to maybe a little bit of a slower ramp up.
But I think that he's really developed a sense for what type of defensive coach he is and
who he wants to be heading in from year one to year two in Baltimore.
And I think that some of those lessons are well suited for, for,
for him to get the most out of this group as he goes to Seattle.
So I just have faith in the floor on defense because of the guys pulling the levers.
And I have real faith in the ceiling on offense because I think that the offensive coordinator
and some of the other component parts in place have a chance to really set this group up for success.
Do I think they're going to be a 10-win team?
Not necessarily.
But I just think that they're better than we're probably making them out to be heading into the season.
Yeah.
And again, that's fair.
I will say, I mean, from personal experience in Cleveland, when we hired Kyle Shanahan,
we decided to hire him after we hired some offensive assistants.
And so, you know, he came in and didn't have, you know, everyone he would have picked.
We did have Mike McDaniel, who was, I think, receivers at the time.
He was a receiver's coach, yeah.
Run game coordinator-ish.
But he didn't have his own-line coach.
I think he brought an Embry as a tight-ins coach.
Maybe he hadn't used before.
Maybe it was Angelico.
but still was a pretty good coach and the offense was still pretty good.
So I do think there's these guys that are that good can kind of overcome maybe not necessarily having their specific guys.
Because like the Kyle point is like he could almost be the position coach to every position.
Like Andy Reed could be a position coach at every one of those positions.
And I'd have to imagine, you know, Mike's going to come in there and he can be a position coach at every single position.
So he can kind of float around at practice and kind of make sure he's seeing everything in.
make sure everyone's doing exactly what they're supposed to be doing and even without that
familiarity of guys he's coached with.
Yeah.
And I just,
I was talking to people in Baltimore yesterday and just how good Mike was it.
All right,
down distance personnel,
like this is the right call.
And just that level of detail and just consistently putting your guys in the right
spots,
I think that's how you get the most out of players.
It's just like,
we're going to make sure that you are never at a disadvantage.
Like what I'm calling is never going to put you at a disadvantage.
And if that's the baseline,
that you're starting with on that side of the ball,
I think that goes a long way
when your players clear a certain bar of talent.
And I do think that even if they don't have superstars
lining up on that side of the ball,
for the most part,
the Seahawks defensive personnel clears that bar of talent.
Yeah, I'm with you.
I mean, to your point,
again, we're not talking about them as like a top three team,
but if it's seven and a half and you think they're a 10-win team,
that's a pretty big jump.
And that's not buying that they're going to be a below-five,
hundred teams.
I think they'll fight to be a wildcard team this year.
I really do just based on some of the outcomes I see potentially for the offense.
Last one here that I wanted to talk to you about because I thought it was a really interesting
point.
You wanted to talk about just not buying the way that we're doing some of these quarterback deals
and the way that they get handed out and why.
Let's talk a little bit more about that.
Yeah, I mean, we do see a very tiny discrepancy between the upper, upper top end of the
quarterback market, which is probably 55-ish and, you know, the Gough Tua deals, which are in the
52, 53 and kind of hurts. I just feel like we've kind of just assumed and we've come to the
conclusion that like if you're a good enough quarterback and we can argue is to a top eight,
is he top 12, is he top five, is he top one if you're a Miami fan? What level do you have to be at
to just get the next contract that resets the quarterback market or that's just at the top of
quarterback market.
And I feel like, you know, the Jared Goff point, although I think Goff has shown more
than Tua in terms of like being able to kind of do the playoffy, third down things from more
traditional passing perspective that the Tua hasn't shown as much.
But I agree with that.
What you've built around them is so good that it's elevated them to look like at certain
times, a top five quarterback, a top three quarterback.
You look at Tua's numbers and it looks like he's.
an MVP can't i mean he was an MVP candidate at some point um but the numbers are so goddy the efficiency
is so um high that if that infrastructure is that good that you can get these quarterbacks who
you know probably objectively are better than average in terms of like a top 16 quarterback but not
necessarily a guy that you're going to build around who's going to elevate everyone around them just
because they're there why are they all getting paid similar to a mohomes and alan um um a lamon
are guys who have shown the ability to truly lift the offense
and to bring everything and everyone around them up to a certain level.
So this gets into the larger picture of like, you know,
there's no middle quarterback market.
You know, there should be if the top of the market is.
There kind of is, though.
Well, there is, but like there hasn't really been that advancement on the Daniel Jones contract.
That was, I guess, Kirk Cousins with inflation.
Yeah, that's the problem is.
But Gough and Tua didn't get that.
They got closer to the top end than they did the Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, middle tier.
And even going back, I don't know, five years when Jimmy G first signed his contract, it was a lot of money.
But he was soon at 25 million and the top quarterbacks were at 40 million.
And there was kind of that second tier.
And then Alex Smith signed a contract, I think, with Washington that was like 22 a year.
And there kind of seemed like there was going to be that differentiation.
Like, you're a top quarterback in modern money.
You get 55 to 60 million.
you're an 8 to 15 quarterback and you can get, you know, a percentage less than that.
So let's say that 45-ish million that cousin settled on.
And then you're a rookie quarterback or you're a high-level backup and you're in the, you know,
10 to 15 range.
And I wish that we could be that because I think if you take the two a deal,
if you take maybe the Hertz deal depending on where you see him, you take the golf deal,
if you could get those guys at 43 to 45 million and have another 8 million for
one piece, whether that's a situational pass rusher, whether that's a speed guy offensively
that just is a field stretcher that can open things up, whether that's a quality guard that's
undervalued in the market that solidifies the offensive line. I think that's a lot more valuable
than paying that extra $10, $8 to $10 million that you kind of just have to with these
quarterbacks now based on how we do these signings. And so again, it gets back to like
what Detroit has built, what Miami's built, what FI's built, what FI's
built these teams have built such beautiful structures of offenses that it's elevated the
quarterbacks to the best of their abilities why can't you take a quarterback that's a lesser
piece put them in there and get similar ish production maybe not the top level of what those guys
have shown because they are really good quarterbacks and they're all you know because people live
scared exactly because the people making these decisions live scared which she and fran lucked into
Like they've shown they'd lucked into this ability and this is where they were going and do they probably wish Trey Lance panned out and do they wish they had a ceiling of the guy they lost to in the in the Super Bowl the past couple times?
Not saying Trey Lange has that ceiling, but like do they wish that was the idea of higher ceiling?
Of course they do.
But like is the safer thing to just build around the quarterback so exceptionally and have one of those offensive coordinators that's exceptional that you can put in a number 20.
quarterback and turn them into a number eight quarterback and then everything else is so good around them that
it's good and all the money can go to all the other positions and maybe the defense line and I don't know
I'm getting no one's willing to do that though no one no one's willing to do that because no one is
willing to live with the downside yeah no one is willing to risk their job goodbye pack your stuff
yeah that that's exactly right and no one is willing to live with the the uncertainty that comes
with like waiting into it.
And the Niners, it happened by accident.
And I think it's reasonable to ask how many Brock Purdy's there are out there.
Like, I do think that there are elements to who he is that aren't replicable with whatever
mid-round or cheap quarterback you want to plug in.
I think the Niners got extremely lucky with what he brings to the table.
But I'm with you.
The Tua thing, for example, right?
If you're Miami, offer him the cousins deal, which for where he is as a quarterback,
I think is totally fair.
Listen, I have made my...
concerns and doubts about to it known, I think it is totally fair to offer him that sort of
contract that is like an inflation offer on the Daniel Jones deal because Daniel Jones is young,
right? And so that's the difference between cousins and the Carr cousins tier is hard because
these are guys in their 30s and two is 26. And so let's say the dolphins offer him that.
Here is the $45 million a year sort of Kirk Cousins contract. Two is people absolutely should say no
to that. Like absolutely should say no based on where the market is right now. That's their jobs.
That's what they should do. And if you're Miami, I think the response is, okay, then let's play out
the year. If that's not something you're willing to take, let's play out the year. You get to the end
of the season and let's say it ends the same way, right? Like, they're a really good offense,
but their ceiling is a little bit capped. We don't see too any differently than we did coming into
this season. You say, all right, is that a deal you want to take? And they say, no. It's
like, okay, we're going to tag you. It's $42 million for the tag next year projected. It's not far
off from his cap hit on this current extension that he's on, which is $39 million. And you say to
two his people, you are free to seek out a trade. You are free to see what other teams will offer you
while you're sitting here on the franchise tag. We encourage you to do that. And let's come back and
let's hash this out. Do you think that there is a team on the open market right now that would
offer two of four years and $53 million a year?
I mean, is there a team that would potentially?
Is it a smart team that is kind of operating under the right guises?
Probably not.
I just don't think there is.
I don't think,
I think he's more valuable to the dolphins than he is to another team.
And so this is kind of where I was,
the Daniel Jones thing.
It's like,
you show me that you can get that from somewhere else.
That's what I want to see.
And if the answer is yes,
then you can pay him that.
You can match that, right?
But I would be willing to play this out a little bit further.
and I'd be willing to play hardball a little bit more.
The problem here is there are personnel and they're like personal feelings involved here.
And so do you want to play hardball with your quarterback or is it easier just to say,
you know what, fine, fuck it.
We'll pay the other $8 to $10 million a year.
We'll just get this done.
We don't want there to be like this bad blood.
We've had you see this go wrong in other places.
We don't want to have to live with the potential ramifications and consequences of this
when we can just get it done right now.
And I think that's ultimately where a lot of these teams land.
They're just not willing to take it.
at the distance like that because they don't want to deal with the tension and all the bullshit that
comes with it. Yeah, well, I have two things. One really quick. We've talked about the Kirk Cousins,
the kind of second tier market. I think it should be lower than that. That's kind of just where it is
right now. So that's what we're going off of. But if as of now, the top quarterbacks are making
53 to 55, I think it probably should be more like 30 to 40, just based on the value that those top guys
really provide. But secondly, we've also seen that if your quarterback is good enough, there's no value or
no contract that you can pay them that isn't worth it. And I think the other thing that teams get
afraid of is, oh, well, the caps can arise and we're going to have to pay him all this money. But if you
wait another year or two, and now you have clarity and certainty that he is that quarterback that's
worthy of that top tier contract, that's a great problem to have. Kansas City is very happy to pay
Mahomes the money they pay him. Buffalo is very happy to pay Josh Allen, the money they pay him.
Baltimore, very happy to pay Lamar, the money they pay him. And Baltimore was a team that
waited a little bit too like if you wait another year too that's a perfect example like what was the
downside there he won the fucking MVP last season yeah exactly so like waiting another year to
to guarantee that and then not having to go through the carson went split the jared goff split the
the you know daniel jones split after this year that we're all kind of assuming even though they
did the contract smartly they can get out of it without too much heartache the matt ryan split like
if you just wait a year or two, pay them a little less, maybe deal with some frustration,
they're still competitors, they still want to be the best quarterback, they still want to perform
so that they can get the contract that you're not giving them currently, then it's a great
problem that in two years, we're saying, you know, two actually proved us wrong, and he's worth
$65 million a year now, and he's the guy that's shown that he's elevating everyone around it
because Tyree got heard and, you know, all these other things.
So that would be a really good problem to have, and to your point, teams are just kind of
afraid of the ramifications and they're afraid of playing the string out but like what
washington did with cousins i think that was pretty awesome and cousins was willing to do it and
they got the best and the most out of him that they could and they said you know you're not
worth the top tier contract so we're going to let you go but you know we got an extra two or three
years out of you for about the market that that should have been um and he performed for them
i think teams just aren't willing to have walk away prices when it comes to quarterbacks
i think we've seen that and for one reason another that's just how business is done
And I understand why because there are teams that regret not paying the guy sooner.
Like what happened with Dallas and Dak?
Like, I'm sure they would have loved to have paid him before Russell Wilson got that
contract a couple of years ago that they ended up basing his extension on.
But he's been worth the contract.
And so it's not.
Yeah.
It hasn't been a bad deal.
And they waited and they got certainty and they paid the going rate at the time.
Well, it's been a bad deal because of how little flexibility that they've had.
And that's part of the problem here too is that with the two a deal specifically,
having a four-year extension, that's tough, man.
If your quarterback's on a four-year extension,
you just have such little flexibility in terms of how much money you can move around.
That's part of the benefit of the Mahomes and the Josh Allen contracts is
they've been able to do whatever they've wanted because they can just zero that thing out
every single year and keep kicking the can down the road because the contract is so long.
With both Goff and with Tua, I just think that it's going to be harder for those teams to do it.
And if you're sitting there and your quarterback's got a $60 million cap hit in 2025,
and he didn't play well in 2024, and you're like,
do we really want to push money on to future years for this?
I think that you just run into so many more complications.
So beyond the number, I think that the leverage that brings these four-year deals
also put these teams in kind of a tough spot.
So it's coming from multiple directions.
And I'm with you on this.
I just feel like even if you've got to endure a little bit of awkwardness,
it's probably worth waiting a little bit and waiting a beat with some of these guys
that you don't think are just no-brainer top 10.
I win because of him quarterbacks.
And there aren't that many of those guys.
Yeah, totally with you.
All right.
That's all we got.
We will be back on Tuesday.
We're going to be going with Derek.
Top 10 defenses, Beller?
Top 10 defenses on Tuesday?
Top 10 defenses with me and Derek on Tuesday.
Very excited about that show because I just think that with offenses,
we kind of know.
Like, it's just hard to throw random ones in there because it's difficult.
Like, we know which offenses are good.
Defenses, I think there's going to be some spicy ones, especially that I'm willing to throw out.
So very much looking forward to that show.
If you have not listened to other things we had this week, we had Derek on a talk top-town offenses.
We chatted about some of the second-year quarterbacks.
So those are the first two shows we did with Derek.
If you missed either of those, highly encourage you to check them out.
We'll be back on Tuesday.
Until then, appreciate you guys listening.
We'll talk to you very soon.
