The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - NFL news roundup with Lindsay Jones, fantasy draft value hunting with Jake Ciely & Packers camp visit with Matt Schneidman

Episode Date: August 24, 2021

Robert and Lindsay kick off the week catching up on NFL headlines, from the battle between Cam Newton and Mac Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Trey Lance and more. Then Robert welcomes Jake Ciely of The Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast to hunt for some value picks at QB, RB, WR and more. Then Robert catches up with Packers beat writer Matt Schneidman of The Athletic's Head of the Pack podcast to get the latest on the chaos with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.Get your Athletic discount and Jake's Fantasy guide at theathletic.com/footballshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Great show for you guys today. Jake Seeley is going to be joining us a little bit later. We're going to hunt for some fantasy value. I know that a lot of you are probably having your drafts this weekend. So it's a good time to do a little fantasy football download. Really looking forward to that conversation.

Also, our Packers writer, Matt Schneidman, is on the show today. I'm trying to keep track of all the team writer interviews that we have stacked up from last week. Today is our visit with Matt from last week. So very much enjoyed our conversation. I hope you guys will as well. Before we do any of that, though, please to welcome my good friend Lindsay Jones. Lindsay, how you doing?

I'm great, Robert. We made it through two preseason games. We're officially at the like, I hate the preseason point of the year. I'm so ready for real football. I'm so ready for real football. The problem was I was at my girlfriend's family reunion this weekend. And in the regular season, I would easily be able to wiggle out of something like that

because I really do have to watch, but it's hard to convince them I need to watch preseason games. So I was playing a little bit of catch up here over the last 24 hours as to what happened during the preseason. Some notable stuff. There was some notable stuff, but we're also back in this routine where almost all the teams, it seems like, are doing these joint practices. And the joint practices that happen during the week are actually a lot more interesting and telling about what's going on with these teams than what we actually see on these preseason games. or those are important for guys who are near the bottom of the roster, guys that are really trying to make the team, you know, some situational football kind of stuff. But so few starters are actually playing these days that it's hard to make these really broad conclusions. But we do want to make a few. We do want to get into a couple, especially with the quarterbacks, right? Yeah. So let's do a little bit of a news round up here about what's happened over the last couple of days, not only in regard to preseason games, but just some other news that's come out. And let's start with Cam Newton. So it came out today that he violated. some sort of protocol, there was some sort of miscommunication about what sort of travel he was able to do

and what counted as a league sanctioned test. Can you explain this to me like I'm five? Yeah, I mean, we don't need to get into all of the nitty gritty about the different kind of test. But basically, if you are unvaccinated, which Kim Newton has never commented specifically, but the fact that he is not able to be a practice for the next several days is an indication that he is not vaccinated. So if you're not vaccinated and you are going to be leaving the, they call it the quote unquote team environment. This is once intake has happened and you're within like the daily testing protocol and all that sort of stuff, you have to have certain types of testing. It's not enough just to like go to your Walgreens and get a test done kind of on your own. And, you know, so Cam Newton left, he was going

to team approved medical appointments and there was some sort of miscommunication, understanding of exactly what he needed to do. And now he can't be there. So this is not a case where he's tested positive. This is not a situation where he's a high risk close contact. This is a, you know, kind of a standard violation of the really boring parts of the NFL's COVID protocols. But, you know, I think that the important things here, there's two. One is it's just another reminder of why coaches and general managers and stuff are harping on their guys to get vaccinated. Because the differences and rules and protocols for guys who are vaccinated versus guys who are unvaccinated are are really substantial. And it could cause you to miss time and is now causing Cam Newton to miss

five days. He's missing joint practices with the Giants. So the other important part of that is what does this mean for Mack Jones? Mac Jones is now going to have several days of joint practices against the Giants. We just talked about how the joint practices are more important than the preseason games of first team reps instead of Cam Newton getting those reps. Yeah, and this was already something we thought was pretty close in terms of being a quarterback competition. Mack Jones has played really well over the course of the preseason. And when you draft a guy in the first round and he was playing about as well as your starter, even if Cam Newton has also played well in the preseason,

I would characterize it as neck and neck from the outside looking in. And when it's that close, there's not much margin for error. If you're missing five straight days, I mean, that's going to give the other guy in that quarterback battle a pretty huge advantage. And I think that's what we might be staring at here with the Patriots. Yeah. And I think what the Patriots have been looking for, what Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have been looking for. And what Bill Belichick indicated on Monday when he spoke with reporters in New England was

that Cam Newton is leading this competition, right? I mean, they went into this whole season, this training camp, everything, saying Cam Newton is going to be our starter until proven otherwise, until somebody else does something, whether that's Mack Jones making a massive move or Cam Newton falling apart, that changes that equation. That's not to say that Mack Jones is necessarily going to go out there and win this job this week, these couple of days that Cam Newton isn't allowed to be in the building, but it's not going to hurt his cause, right? I mean, this is going to be time for him to get really important work with the starters for a consistent amount of time that he wasn't going to get

otherwise. So, you know, it's just a chance for Mac Jones to make up ground. And, you know, that's really valuable. Those reps are valuable. The live practice reps against another team, that's really valuable. And it's just kind of another, you know, if this is an even situation, and you're picking between maybe a guy who has more upside or a guy who's going to be more available. I don't know exactly Mac Jones's vaccination status, but it's now part of the equation. He's practicing this week. So, I mean, that's, it gives him a leg up. Like, there's no denying that. I think that absolutely is worth paying attention to. Let's talk about some other rookie quarterback situations in where they stand after this weekend.

It really does seem like the Bears and Niners have more talented quarterback sitting on the bench at this point, huh? I mean, not surprising, right? They trade it up for those guys. They picked them in the first round. We know that they're the future in both of those places. But I think every single time we get a glimpse of Trey Lance and Justin Fields, even if it's a tad uneven, which both of their performances from this weekend were, it's still so

hard to face life with Andy Dalton and Jimmy Garoppolo after you. see even the flashes from these guys. Yeah. And I mean, these are not apples to apples situations. I mean, I think the Niners and bears have actively said that Andy Dalton is their starting quarterback multiple times. You know, and, you know, in San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan is not saying that Jimmy Garapolo is their starter for week one.

Leave that door open just to crack. Yeah, just a little bit. I mean, just like he did with the pre-draft stuff. He's going to let us run with it until, you know, until we can't run with it any further. That just the situation seems so different. the guys ahead of them seem a little bit different. I mean, Jimmy Garapolo is more of a kind of a known quantity within that San Francisco offense. He's getting a lot less work.

I mean, he spent, he played one series against the Chargers. I believe that was Sunday night. So, I mean, so he barely played. I mean, they're really going to kind of let Tray Lance get reps because he hadn't played in, what, 500 days or something. And he had barely played football. So they're really letting him get more involved in the offense. But they're also holding stuff back. We haven't gotten to see any of the cool running stuff.

We haven't gotten to see any of the special packages. You know, I think it's going to be really interesting to see how they integrate Tray Lance. I think the situation in Chicago is like, he's clearly the better quarterback. You know, I think he's better for their team right now. He's the better player. He's more dynamic. But kind of like we talked about last week, the rest of that team is kind of a mess. So I think you really have to look more long term there where in San Francisco, we can

really talk about it as like a short term, are they better, are they better week one with Tray Lance than they are than Jimmy Garapolo? Yeah, not much has changed. I still have a similar stance on this even after watching those games this weekend after rewatching them. I still feel like the Niners, if they think he's the better option, just put him in there and let him grow as he's going to grow because you're not actively hurting his development. You might not think he's not 100% ready because there are some throws that are scatter shot. There are some decisions that make you scratch your head a little bit, but he's a rookie quarterback. He's only going to learn by playing, and I don't think you actively hurt his development by him being in the game

when you look at everything around him. You could say the same thing about Justin Fields. Well, he'll only learn by playing, but I do think the downside is much greater there than it might be with Treylands. And I think that you have to take that into account. And I understand the argument that, well, he's a more mobile quarterback, could he more easily deal with the lack of the protection issues? That gives me pause. I'm going to slow down on that. I don't think that's the way that you should think about it. I also don't think that people talking about how, well, you shouldn't feed him to the Rams in week one.

When then is he ready to play? It's like, it doesn't, you don't have to put anything on there. You don't have to say this is when he should play, this is when he shouldn't play. I just don't think you lose anything by letting him sit there and watch for the first month. I think you lose less by doing that than throwing him out there and letting him get hit over and over and over again when the offensive line isn't settled. Maybe by week one, they do feel it's a little bit settled. Maybe Peters is the left tackle.

Germina Fetti was back at practice today. And they do feel much better about it two weeks from now than they did a week ago. But I still feel like giving yourself a little bit more time to sort all of that is not the worst idea in the world. So were you watching like on your phone at this family reunion? Correct. So what did you do at the family reunion when Justin Fields got his helmet knocked off? I put my phone down and went for a small walk. I did not like it at all.

And obviously that's not an offensive line thing. And many people pointed out it's an empty protection issue. that's something that's going to happen when you learn. But it was hard to watch. It was hard to look at that over and over again. I've seen that hit more times than I'd care to admit at this point. I mean, I was kind of surprised that the other guy didn't get actually ejected, that the guy from Buffalo, the linebacker, that New York didn't kind of pause the game to review that.

He will certainly get fined for that hit. I mean, he can be expecting that letter coming to his locker this week. But yeah, I mean, that was, but look, he popped right back up. I mean, I probably looked worse than it was. was, but that was that moment that I, you know, I was sitting at my desk doing some edits and I cursed. I was like, oh, man, and I'm typing it to my editor. Because that's right. I mean, that's not what you want to see. That's the last thing you want to see. And that's one of those scenarios where that's why Corey Lindley is in with the Chargers right now. Right. It's so when you're

looking at that, when you see that look and you see that linebacker walk down, a veteran center is going to turn around and be like, hey, you see that over there? That's bad. We need to do something about that that didn't happen from neither the center nor the quarterback and you get your rookie quarterback's head almost torn off, which is never good for anyone. So, yes, I was watching on my phone propped up against a can, as I am what to do in those scenarios. Not being the best party guest, I'll admit that. All right, let's stick with some relatively bad news here. I would say some very bad news. The Jets had a couple depressing injuries over the last week. Carl Lawson's out for the season with the torn Achilles. He actually did that the day after I was at Packers.

Jets joint practices last week. Such a bummer. I mean, just a huge, huge letdown because I expected so much from him. He was apparently having an awesome camp. He's one of my favorite players in the league to watch. It really seemed like he was ready to step into the spotlight as this big-time free agent.

And for a team that I think could be fun to watch from day one, just when you look at what's happening with Zach Wilson, and the vibe there was so good. And for that to happen is just such a terrible letdown. And then they're also going to be without linebacker, Jared Davis, who they had signed on a one-year deal and was hoping to kind of rehabilitate his career with that staff, he's going to be out for how long? About six weeks? Yeah, they're expecting he'll at least miss the start of the season. Which, I mean, it's rough. When these things start

to pile up me before the season starts, you hate to see it. And the Jets are not a team that's really deep on the edge. Their defensive wine has a lot of really nice players on it, but they don't have a ready-made replacement on that roster for Carl Lawson. That's why they went out and got him. Yeah, I mean, he's like a splash player. an impact player where. Yes. Splash is a great way to put it. And, you know, they don't have that guy.

And this is just another kind of one of those, for us, use the word good vibes, right? As good of the vibes have been around the Jets, we've been really high on the way that they're building. It just felt like, oh, it's the Jets again. I know. Where there's, for whatever reason it is, it's a big injury.

It's C.J. Mosley two years ago after he signed from the Ravens and he gets hurt right away, where it's just for, you know, two steps forward, this team is always taking a little bit, you know, one step back. And that's just got to be frustrating because I know Jets fans, you just want this to turn around really, really quickly. And it's just, it probably wasn't going to happen that way. And the chances that it were going, that your progress was going to be accelerated, so much of that depended on Carl Lawson. And now he's going to be on the shelf until 2022. With that defense, you really needed somebody that can be a terror off the edge.

That's the way they like to play. I mean, you think about what they were a couple years ago with Nick Bosa. That front forward does a lot of the heavy lifting in that system. And they really needed him. He was something I felt could unlock the rest of that group. And it sucks. It's just a really shitty thing for football fans and for Jets fans. Let's spin it the other way here.

Carson Wentz returns to practice today. I'm not surprised by this that they're trying to get him out there as soon as possible and they're trying to get him fast track to play week one. When I was there, a couple of, It was this team. I was there on the first day of camp. Frank Grech had tested positive for COVID so he wasn't there. Two days later, the Wentz thing happens.

A couple days after that, the Quentin Nelson thing happens. It just, it was a rough start to training camp for this team. Now, obviously, Frank Reich is back. You have both of these guys returning to practice in some capacity. When I was there at the end of my, the second time, on like the 12th of August, I talked to Frank Reich for a little while. And when I was talking to him about Carson Wentz, the tone in the conversation indicated to me that Carson Wentz was going to be able to play pretty early in the year.

So this is not shocking, but it still has to be a really nice bit of news if you're rooting for the Colts. Yeah, I mean, you and I were together in Miami basically when the Carson News happened. It's all a blur. It's all a blur. And they kind of gave the most ridiculous window five to 12 weeks. And it felt like, oh, there's no way it's going to be five weeks. And here we're within the small side of that window, right? I mean, we're on the early side here.

You know, our Stephen Holder, one of our excellent cults writers, you know, he was kind of like preaching caution. Like, he's going to be limited. He's going to be limited. And then they get out there at practice today. And, you know, they didn't have Carson once in all of the full. He wasn't doing any 11 on 11 work, you know, any of that sort of stuff. But he took the majority of the reps in 7 on 7, which is a sign that they think he is closer than maybe the rest of us. were thinking that he was going to be.

So, you know, obviously feet are very tricky. Cover this league long enough. You know that you can't make any assumptions about these. How many foot doctors have you talked to over the course of your career? I mean, just the 2015 Bronco season. I felt like I spent a lot of time researching, you know, foot injuries with Peyton Manning. I remember our friend Joe Nissen at one point was like a huge expert on Liz Frank injuries.

She was doing like deep dives on like Liz Frank injuries. The amount of friends I've had that have had had had, extensive conversations with foot doctors over the last 10 years is much higher than you'd think. With Peyton, it was mostly neck doctors. Actually, it's funny. I think if you could probably find anybody who's covered the NFL for a while, if you would look in their phone and type in like a body part and you've come up with like experts that can tell, you know, I've like cardiologists and spine surgeons. But yeah, I mean, I think any of those can be really tricky. Ancles are really difficult to predict. Feet are really tricky to predict because all it takes is just one little day of

swelling, one wrong step, and it's a setback. So one day, very positive, but let's see how we stack stays together and make sure there isn't any sort of, you know, bad reaction that will take him off the field for any longer. But generally positive. I mean, and it's about time the cult said something positive coming out of their camp. It'd be so hard to reconcile them making this huge, huge move and then losing him for the first like four to six weeks of the year, something like that where you feel like your season's over almost before it gets started because it really does. We've said this so many times in the show. It really does feel like they're moving into the next stage of this, right? Where you have all these guys signed a second contracts. They make this move for

whence. It's like, all right, let's see what we got. And to have that pause for a little while, that's just, it's not fun. It's not a good situation for anyone in that building. And I think that getting that started sooner rather than later is definitely a good thing. So I'm excited to see him not there because I've talked to people there about what their plan is for him and what they think they can get out of him. And I want to see what that looks like in practice. All right. Last one here. We just wanted to hit this very quickly. Everson Griffin resigned with Vikings, which is interesting in that he was a really good player there for a long time. But the best part of this is that he openly mocked Kirk Cousins last year in public and now has to go stand in a locker room with him again,

which I just love. I absolutely love. So not only did he, I mean, you say public. mocked him. What he did was he tweeted about Kurt Cousins. Kurt Cousins is ass. And he tagged the Vikings in the tweet. So it's not like he was just putting it out there into the void, although I'm sure that the Vikings and a lot of Vikings fans follow Everson Griffin. So they understood this. But he specifically tagged the team in the tweets. So, you know, he's back now. Apparently he has already apologized to Mike Zimmer. He's going to have to, he said he will apologize to Kurt Cousins. Don't apologize, man. Just, uh, just, uh, just, I was saying, yeah, you played like ass man. It, it, it happened, but I can't wait until there's like a particularly long day with Lena where

you're just like tired and like you really feel like you need to unwind why and you start at USA today and just ripping old coworkers. Like my old co-workers. Yeah, no, never, never. I would never burn bridges like that. Um, but, um, I did, I did mention this last week. And next week on the pod, when we record, I will have taken Lena, my five-year-old. daughter to her first NFL game. We're definitely going to need. I will report back. I'm going to write down everything she says.

I'm taking her to Broncos Rams preseason game where it's going to be one of the Broncos quarterbacks versus somebody who plays for the Rams. What is Bryce Perkins? Bryce Perkins. That's yeah. I assume he's going to get some run in that game. Yep. I know who the Bram's backup quarterbacks are.

Yeah. John Wolford perhaps. No, Wolfford's not playing in the preseason. So just just. just Bryce Perkins then. Well, this is going to be just like the Broncos defense last week, played against a guy named Alex Magoo,

who apparently is a real human being who plays in the NFL, and it did not go well. Speaking of Magoos, well, what's going on with the quarterback competition in Denver? So we're waiting. Everybody here in Denver, I was listening to some sports talk radio earlier while I was driving to get an iced coffee, and everybody here is just waiting for a decision.

And I don't think there's a clear winner to this Drew Locke Teddy Bridgewater competition. Teddy Bridgewater played really, really well in his chance to start a preseason game last week against the Seahawks. He was really efficient. He had really good pocket awareness. He had some really impressive plays where he kind of slid the pocket, moved around, avoided pressure. He played really, really, really well. So if it was a chance, if it was one of these, like, we just need Teddy to. do it, see that Teddy can play well with the ones and it's his job. He would have done that.

Drew Locke played okay. He didn't play great. He didn't play terribly. He was playing with all of the backups, you know, against the second team offensive line, those sorts of things. They had some protection issues as soon as he came into the game. So I don't know. I mean, I think there's this assumption or just this feeling generally that Drew Locke has shown the development that the Broncos wanted out of him this camp. He's shown that he's making better decisions. He's being more careful with the football. He's, you know, less prone to just tuck it and run. So if that's what you wanted, his ceiling is probably higher. So maybe that's the reason to give it to him. But Teddy, man, he's done really well too. So I don't know. But I still kind of come back to the

same place with this is that I don't know if it really matters. Like I think their, I think their floor is fairly decently high because of how good their defense. is going to be. But I'm not sure if either of those quarterbacks makes them a top 10 offense. You know, either of those quarterbacks are going to be like in the 20 to 27 range of quarterbacks in the NFL this year. I still feel like they're going to let Locke start and the first day that he throws two picks and a half. It's over. Like that just feels like the logical way to do this. And they're going to be yo-yoing back and forth. You give him one more chance to show he can do it. And as soon as he can't, you put in the guy who can meet.

merely keep the train on the tracks. Like, that is the most defensive-minded head coach way to handle this, and that's exactly what they have. I just, ever since they signed him, that seemed like it was written in the stars. Drew Locke, week one, whether it's week one or week two, he throws two terrible picks like that Raider game last year. And Vic is like, I've seen enough. I'm done.

This is it. We're putting the guy in who's just not going to throw it to the other team. I still stand by that plan. I think that's what I was going to unfold. Yeah, and that's entirely possible. And I also wouldn't rule out them yo-yoing back and forth. Well, that always goes well. Between these guys.

Yeah, it's not, it's not great. And what's kind of unfortunate is that I think otherwise, they might be pretty good. And, you know, I don't want to make these, like, big conclusions from preseason games, but the vibes are real good. The offense looks great. The other guys on offense look awesome. Javante Williams is going to be a star. I've been, I was texting people on Saturday night being like, it's just really unsettling to see them look competent on offense. Like, this just, it just, I don't know.

what this feels like to watch that. And I think their defense could be really good. And, you know, it's just the one thing that keeps holding them back. The most important position in sports. Yeah, only that one. That's it. Nothing else to worry about. All right.

So, Lindsay, that's all we got. You will not be on next week. We're doing the division previews. So we're starting the division previews next Tuesday. We're going to have a different guest on every day. And you are last. You are the opening act for the NFL season. We're doing the AFC West.

last. So we will do that. Also, I'm the headliner of the preview pods. Yes, absolutely. That's exactly what it is. So you'll be out for that. We will get Lena's full rundown on what the preseason game was like and how Brett Rippin is the greatest player in history of the NFL. Well, and hopefully by the time we record that pod, the Broncos will have made a quarterback decision. I wouldn't bank on it. I really wouldn't.

All right. We'll talk to you soon. See you later. All right. It's time now to welcome the Athletics Senior Fantasy Writer, one of the co-hosts of the Athletics Fantasy Football Show. Jake Silly, Jake, how you doing, man? It's good to finally do this. I know. I was expecting this to come at some point.

I don't want to be the guy to reach out to you and be like, hey, when does this get to happen? So I'm glad that you reached out on your end and we were finally getting to have a show together. Always reach out. Always reach out and bug me because my problem is I get this tunnel vision where I plan the show out like a month in advance and I'm the least

flexible person in the world. As soon as a slot is filled, that is what it's going to be. I can't pivot in any way, shape, and form. So always get out in front of it, because then we can make that happen. So you're the couch going upstairs with Ross. You can't pivot. I cannot pivot. I absolutely cannot pivot.

It drives the people in my life absolutely insane. And it applies to everything. Like, if I have a vision for, we just got a house and we're furnishing it. And as soon as I decide this is the way the room is going to look, even if there's a good reason to change the layout, I just can't do it. because I have committed to this version of it, and it makes me a terrible person to deal with in every way, shape, and form. So here's what we're going to do today.

We're recording this on August 23rd. It's going to run tomorrow on August 24th when you guys will be listening to this. I would assume a lot of people have fantasy drafts over the next couple weekends. I know I do. Our draft, we had the rookie draft last night. We have our auction on Saturday. So I am very much in fantasy mode. I can't be the only one.

So we're going to do over the next. few minutes here is we're going to go hunting for some value in a couple different ways. We're going to talk about some risers and followers from the preseason. Fantasy analysts are the best they watch preseason so you don't have to. That is a huge role that they play in the football media landscape. And then we're also going to talk about some areas where you diverge a little bit from consensus rankings in ADP. We're going to go through a couple different positions.

With quarterback and tight end, that's not as useful. We'll do some more general talk about those. but with some running backs and receivers, there are a lot of guys I'm fascinated to get your opinion on. So I have a decision about whether I want to keep Tua in my Keeper League, and I'm kind of hemming and hawing about it because he's not that cheap. But when you look at the way that he's played over the first couple of preseason games, I feel like I kind of regret it if I threw him back,

because he looks really, really good. And this is without even the top-tier receiving talent that they kind of assembled and accrued for him in the off-season. Yeah, I look, well, there's two things here is let's just talk positively about too and then you can decide like whether or not that's worth it for keeping versus everybody else. But I find it fascinating how quickly people in generally want to write people off after being so excited for them in general. That's one of the reasons I just recently wrote an article of dumpster diving from last year because everybody gets annoyed that somebody disappointed and they never want to go back to said player. Meanwhile, let's talk about too, as you will know last year. So first of all, still not 100% for a lot of the season coming off that injury.

Let's go back to his college profile. 87 touchdowns 11 interceptions. Like, forget what you think about two of the player. Let's just throw that stat out there on its own and say, you're not 87 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, unless you have some talent. And let's go back to college and look at his play and look at his play from college and say, hey, people want to knock him for a deep ball. Better than you think, oh, that big play to Jalen Widal, who now on the team,

that just happened to be a deep ball that two have threw. You look at his ability, yeah, he's going. got some issues when transitioning from the run, but also last year, as you know, Miami, Miami was part of the problem for Tua. It was they tried to play both sides of the fence, which always screws you over in, well, I was going to say football, but all sports, is they tried to somewhat play with Ryan Fitzpatrick's office, sometimes transitioned to Tua, put Tua in there, went away from them, went back to FITS, went back to Tua. And if you look at the receivers on top of that, Devante Parker was hurt for most of the year, bookended by hamstring injuries,

didn't have Preston Williams, who I don't think is a fact. factor this year anyway, but doesn't have Will Fuller of this year from last year. He doesn't have the Jalen Waddle from last year. And Gisicki was his top option for most of the season. So two on his own right, I think there's a perception, too, is that he's going to run a ton. He's not really that kind of a running quarterback. Absolutely two, 300 rushing yards, but it's the arm. It's the arm and the ability. And I think he's a much better passer than people give him credit for. They already want to write the book on him just like they wrote the book on Jalen Hertz. And he's done of being a good quarterback. But you mentioned it. And he's showing this preseason. We don't want to overreact

to preseason, but he's showing this preseason why he was the draft pick he was last year. Yeah. And I talked to Chan Galey for a story I wrote about Ryan Fitzpatrick a few weeks ago. And he was very open about the fact that they weren't working in things for Tua before two was named the starter. It's not as if they were trying to implement these aspects of the offense that he'd be comfortable with. They had to do that very quickly on the fly. And you combine that with a very bad offensive line, no preseason, no real training camp for a guy coming into his rookie year, and they've completely upgraded the receiving options. He's a quick operator. I mean, you watch how he plays in the pocket. They're going to incorporate a lot of that RPO stuff.

I don't know what his ceiling is, just because I do think physically he's a tiny bit underwhelming, right? Like he doesn't have the biggest arm. Like you said, he's not going to give you huge rushing upside like some of these other guys were about to talk about. So that's kind of my thing going back and forth about it is that even if he looks really good, I don't know what would have to happen for Tua to be the eighth best quarterback in fantasy. I think there's a world where he's a much better NFL quarterback for the dolphins and is a success story for them and isn't worth a fantasy bet when you consider some of the unlimited upside that some of the other guys going after him in drafts might have both now and in the future. And there's no

question about it. As soon as you said eighth best, if you saw my face, but I don't think that ever happens because, you know, there's two things. As one, as you mentioned, you double down on what I was saying about the rushing upside, but at the same time as what does he have to do to become the eighth best? Well, look at what Tom Brady just did. And for fantasy purposes, Tom Brady was inside the top 10, but not by much. And if you go on a points per game basis, and a lot of leagues, he was the 10th or 11th best quarterback in a points per game. And he just went bananas throwing the ball. So that's where it comes down to. Yes, he's going to run a little bit more than Tom Brady, but is it going to be more, and I, I'm throwing

this name out for two reasons. One is he gets too much hate, but at the same time, it's a good representation is the 13th quarterback from last year, Derek Carr, over 4,000 yards, good touchdown total, about 150 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, maybe two against 250 and four at really the best, and that's what it comes down to. He's going to need to throw for 43, 4,400 yards, 30 to 35 touchdowns to reach top eight. And I just don't see that happening. as much as I'm a fan of Tuas. So that's why I said it depends on your other options, is I peek out on him as round QB 14 or QB 15.

Maybe he hits QB12 in a really good season. So let's get to a couple of guys who have a ceiling much, much higher than that. And that's the two rookies that we just talked about with Lindsay earlier on the show, and Justin Fields and Trey Lance. Where do you feel? We've seen it all, right? Like we've seen the physical ability that they've shown over the last couple weeks. And I think that's going to be baked into a falling.

ADP here as we get a little bit closer to drafts. I mean, you look at some of the sharp stuff. I'm listening to a ton of fantasy podcast in the car. You look at it and I want to say that Trey Lance is like the quarterback 12 in some of these underdog drafts just because people are hunting for that massive, massive upside. I had a rookie draft yesterday. I had the 10th, 11th, and 12 picks. And I picked Trey Lance 10th. I mean, I just feel like now and starting next year, what he could do for you is just massive. And Justin Fields was right there. So in a normal draft, it's going to be a question of where do you feel comfortable rolling the dice? And I'm curious what you think about that. As you've seen them now live and in person here a

couple of times and what they can bring in that dynamic, where do you start to feel comfortable now compared to where you might have been a couple weeks ago? So I think their price is going to be about how do you want to attack your position? Because what happens with both of them, it's not even just ability. I'll get to that in a second, but it comes down to the likelihood that neither ends up starting week one. So you're drafting somebody already on your bench, you're stashing for set upside, especially on the rushing with both of them.

Both of the rushing upside is really what you're attracted to here, especially when you start talking about quarterbacks who can run for seven, 800 yards, and now you're starting to put the collar Murray tiny tag on them. And I know everybody wants to say, Trey Lance is the next Josh Allen, and I've been hating that this entire, ever since the draft, even before the draft,

because you know this, that Josh Allen is the anomaly. He's not the rule. He's not the commonality. So you have, have to remember what we've seen from both is the deficiencies in two different ways. So Justin Fields, we've already seen his, he's mentioned it, his manipulation and attention to the rush in the pocket. I actually think Lance is a little bit better than that, but where

Lance's issue is, and this is what I said about in coming out of college, is it's actually his vision and manipulation of his receivers. He waits too long sometimes. As you know, if you wait for a window in the NFL, it's gone because you can't wait for the window. And that's where you've seen the interception. That's where you've seen some of his miscellions. throws. So as pure prospects, I like Fields more than Lance. But if you talk about, well, look at the teams. One's on the 49ers with those weapons. And as much as I love Alan Robinson and Darnall Mooney, who I'm sure we're going to get to, is that you swap them and I would like Fields more than Lance, Lance on the 49ers. But what it comes down to is you're drafting both as potentially not starting

for three, four, five, six weeks. And I actually think Fields has a higher likelihood of starting than Lance because you have to look at it. Today's NFL too. Garapolo, $21 million on the bench for what is the Super Bowl aspiration team? And no, I don't think if you said nuts and bolts, who's the better player and who gives them the better chance, it's Garoppolo over Lance, but it's a rookie quarterback. You're trying to go to the Super Bowl. Grappolo has been there. You can get to the Super Bowl with a less talented quarterback.

So that's what it comes down to. Are you drafting for a top 10 upside? No problem with it. But are you also okay drafting two quarterbacks right out of the jump and stashing somebody in your bench. And that's the question you have to answer yourself. You'd have to ask how long you want to wait. Do you want to go with, you want to roll the dice on a Darnold for a month for a buck or whatever round you can get him in? And that comes with inherent risk. It could be what wins you your league. If when Trey Lance comes in on a points per game basis, he has an RG3

in 2012 like impact, but that's a risky, risky bet. And it's funny you mentioned what's around him. That was my decision between Trey Lance and Justin Fields. And I'm betting on the infrastructure. infrastructure. That's what I want to believe in. And I also think that Fields as a runner has been way more impactful than I thought he was going to be. Because in college, he didn't run that much. We know his time speed and all that stuff, but he was not a runner. And his ability to break the pocket and how he's been looking to do that over the first couple weeks, that would make me more inclined to look at him as a fantasy option. But I think when you look at the infrastructure, and then also for me, it was an emotional hedge. Because if Justin Fields fails,

I don't want it to affect my life and my fantasy team. So if he succeeds, I don't mind passing on him because it's already going well for me. So that was what it was baked into my thought process last night. I could definitely see that. So Emery Hunt used to be with us. He compared, and I think this is a great comparison for Justin Fields. It's like a Dak Prescott. And if what we knew about Dak now was at the draft,

Dak wouldn't have lasted as long as he did in the draft. So put that on Justin Fields. And I think that's a good comp for him. when you said the tray lances yeah it what it really comes down to and you said that too is you know how long do you want to wait you have to also think about that like what if you're waiting eight weeks you are you are you going to invest what you just said tray lance is now going at least at qb 12 i've been in a draft where he went cubby 10 and if you're taking him there you can't drop them like i guess at worst case you possibly could but are you really going to be able to stomach dropping the

QB10 where you probably took them and what you invested, let alone if it's an auction, because now you're probably spending double digits to get them. Are you going to be willing to just throw that away if it's not until week nine? So if you can't stomach that and you're not going to be patient enough, then just don't bother. If I were in a normal redraft league, it would have been hard. It would have been much, much more difficult to go back and forth on it and balance that. The benefit is I get to play the upside because I can wait until next year. So that was the nice part about it. That's smart. All right. So let's get to a couple of the running backs on this list. You had Antonio Gibson and Damien Harris, both as guys that you felt were rising a little

bit. Of those guys, who do you think has helped themselves the most or risen the most in your mind over the first couple weeks of the preseason here? The funny thing was, I would have said Harris until this past weekend because Sony Michelle came back and Sony Michelle looked good. And the biggest thing about Damien Harris that was going on before this, he's not a great pass catcher, that being Damien Harris. But he's better than people know because they just see the numbers from college and they're like, oh, he must not be a good pass catcher. And it's a lot, he's not the first running back. You could argue that Sony Michelle is better than people think he is in the passing game, although he's still, I would say Harris is the better pass catcher.

Oh, again, and I'm not saying he's Nihim Hines. Like we're not, I'm not putting that on Harris. But the whole reason behind the ADP rise was because Damien Harris can be out there on third down, whether as a past catcher or a pass blocker and disguise a little bit what they're doing. Now, every single time Sony Michelle's on the field, do they run? No. Every single time James White is on the field, do they pass? No, but if you could just put a second thought into defense's heads, that's why you want a three-down type running back. So that was the point of Sony Michelle, possibly not being on the team for week one.

Also with the injury, all that kind of baked in, but now he looks good, and now a lot of people are pulling back a little bit on Damien Harris. And understandably, because we've done this with Bill O'Neck for how many years now, where you've got to go back to the Lawrence Moroni, Robert Edwards, Corey Dillon days, since he's used somebody like that. And not saying that he can't, but that was the appeal. there. So I think the bigger one is Gibson because it's the continued use and the fact that J.D. McKissick's not even getting any passing game work as much as he was last year. And nobody

expected him to repeat last year. But the fact that he's already losing that in the preseason makes you feel a little bit better about Gibson. The one thing I would feel better about Gibson climbing into the RRB1 tier where a lot of people will draft them. And this is why I don't have him on a single team yet is because he's not even on the field for third downs. Sure, he's getting targets on first and second down. but if he's not on the field for third downs, that's a big factor. I want you on the field as the whole reason was behind the Damien Harris. So if I had to invest in one of the two of the better risers in ADP, I would say it's Gibson. But hey, you know, there's no guarantee that Sony Michelle's still making this team.

I think it looks like he is at this point. But if he somehow got cut, I would actually go right back to feeling good about Damian Harris, despite being on the Patriots. And also, I think if you look at the types of targets, right? He was targeted twice in that second preseason game. One was a play action screen on first down. and one was a little swing pass on first out. So it's not as if he's running routes and he's out being a true receiver, which we think he can do.

Here's why I would bet on Gibson. And I feel comfortable saying all of this because my keeper league he's kept. So I always have to balance that. I want to know how much I have to give away over the course of the show because the assholes I do my league with will absolutely be listening to this. Oh, time out. I'm sorry to interrupt you, but the assholes in my league come to my draft with my auction rankings in hand.

So that just tells you that. So with Gibson, I think if you're looking at this range of the draft, the upside is so, so huge for a few different reasons. I think there's a world where he starts to cut into that third down work than McKissick has. I think he will get more work as a receiver this year. I feel very confident about that after talking to people there. How much is the biggest question?

And I also think that guys aren't ready-made products. And the way that they're used changes over the course of the season. The leaps he made as a player from the middle. of last year to the end of last year. I don't think that those same leaps will happen from the beginning of this year to the middle of this year, but I do think he's still growing into the position. I just think his ability as a runner has so much further to go than some of the other guys in this group, even if you have concerns about the usage.

And that's why I think, because we know with these kind of second, second-ish, third-ish round running backs, you've got to see something that isn't there. They all have warts, and it's all about understanding. which version of the upside you're most willing to bet on. And I just think in this group, he might have the version I'd feel most comfortable with. And I can certainly see that for me. Just so you know, he checks in now at RB 13.

I can't even so for everybody out there that doesn't know, I go through and I do my projection. So I do two things. One, I do my rankings, how I feel as an analyst of watching football. Then I do my projections. And then I go through my projections and work through those. and then I go back the second time and say, all right, well, no.

Despite them being close, I would still take blank over blank. And that's why I have my projections and my rankings as two separate things. So I have them at 13, both in projections and now in rankings because I'm looking at the 12 guys in front of them. And I just can't. I conceivably can't. And I'll go backwards before. I won't even give you the top five because the top five seem obvious. But just in front of them is Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mix, Mixon, Aaron Jones, and Austin Eckler.

And I just can't as much as I like him and I agree with you. and I think the good comparison you said about Antonio Gibson is taking that another step forward, but not as drastic as it was last year. As for any video game people out there, it's like going from the PS3 to the PS4 was an enormous leap, but to go to the PS5 was just a little bit better, not quite that leap we saw from the two versions before that. But I just can't get him into that RB1 tier,

but he's just outside of it. I think that's fine, and I think that makes sense because if you look at some of the guys just ahead of him, right? Like Mixon's workload, there's no questions about that. And even with Chubb and Taylor, if you have concerns about their roles, I still think that they're more dynamic as runners to such a degree that you can talk yourself

into that questionable role, where with Gibson it's a little bit murkier. So I completely understand that. All right, so let's do one receiver here. Let's talk about Corey Davis, who has been really good over the course of the preseason so far. And also, I think that how good Zach Wilson has looked has to make you think a little bit differently about Corey Davis.

and Corey Davis obviously was in a number two role, a defined number two role with the Titans. He comes into this offense where he's going to feel very comfortable. I think a lot of the concepts and the ideas and the DNA is the same. And now he's kind of in that 1A, 1B role. We'll see what happens with Elijah Moore. He's looked fantastic. And I think if you're looking for somebody who can be a true number one receiver by the end of the season, at his price, Corey Davis might be the best bet of any of these guys.

I would absolutely agree with you. And I admittedly had concerns initially when Corey Davis signed, mostly because, you know, you watching last year, you know, he emerged, but he emerged alongside AJ Brown, where he wasn't asked to be the number one and, you know, draw the number one corner defensive attention. I don't mean like shadow corner. I just mean number one attention, number one receiver attention. And he kind of grew into that. And he wasn't obviously what a lot people hoped that he would be coming out of college, especially with the draft capital that was put on him. But you saw it last year and then he goes to the Jets and I say, you know, as the number one, James and Crout are still lingering around.

You have a rookie quarterback. And we don't know what the rookie quarterback is going to like. He could have developed a rapport with any of them. But that answer has been made clear. As you mentioned, the rapport is with Zach. What does he have like a 60% target share through the first two priests? Like Zach Wilson is looking his way all the time. And so the easy comparison that I'll make for everybody out there is put Alan Robinson's name on the back of Corey Davis.

as Jersey and what was the argument for Alan Robinson for years on end? Who cares how bad the quarterback is? When you're getting 25, 30 percent target share, and this is the same argument we're making for the running backs, it's volume. Volume is king in fantasy. Quarterback running back receiver tight end. Volume is king. And if you're going to be targeted that much, obviously not 50, 60 percent of whatever

it is, but you give them 25 percent target share, even if it's erratic coming from Wilson, even if it's erratic and Corey Davis does struggle facing some top corners. and defenses. 25% is still a very high number for any wide receiver. He's still not even inside the top 35 wide receivers in ADP, and it's absurd. Similar to Marvin Jones for his situation of what his volume is going to be. It's just these guys are just completely underrated right now,

and hopefully it comes around. I was going to say, hopefully it comes around by draft day, but maybe it doesn't and you get a great value in your draft. I also think he's going to be on the field for every single snap. Like 97% at least. He is a blocker. he does everything you'd want him to do. And I just think that that overall role within the offense

is going to be multifaceted and he's going to be somebody that they use in every single way. So I've always liked Corey Davis. A wasteland, which is great. Yeah, 100%. I've always liked Corey Davis as a player. I think that if I'm going to make a bet on one of these guys, he's a really good one.

Let's get to a couple guys who have fallen a little bit. Let's start with a couple of the quarterbacks. How do you feel about Dak Prescott at this point? And do you feel like there has been enough good news about his health and with the direction he's headed that you'd be willing to take a chance on him as one of those truly elite top six or seven quarterbacks? You know, it's tough for me because I initially had him at five with this recent string of events. I put him right behind Aaron Rogers at six. And even then for his overall draft cost, I don't like, this is one of the things where it comes down to watching sports because there's nothing behind what I'm about. to say outside of just feeling it and getting the sense of it starts to feel like it's starting

to rack up like it's the arm like a pitching injury it's this injury it's that one and they're never related and i i don't think you know some people are like well that's the good news is they're not related it's not the same thing but on the flip side i'm kind of like you're asking me to spend a fifth round draft pick and i love dacquescott i have them on a lot of dynasty teams so this is somebody that's behind him. But at the same time, with all this starting to be continuous, I don't want to put Grant Hill on him. I don't want to go that route, but it's just like, can I get 2022 to Dak Prescott instead of the price I have to pay right now. And at the price I have to pay, Aaron Rogers still going behind him. Russell Wilson still going behind him.

It's not that I don't love Dak Prescott. I just don't love feeling like he's just not going to play 17 games. Or if he is, it's not going to be 100% Dak Prescott. Again, I have nothing behind that I'm not a doctor. I don't play one on TV, but at the same time, it's just that uneasy feeling. And there's nothing else besides watching sports and having an uneasy feeling when these kind of things keep racking up. And I think looking at the way you've tiered, it makes a lot of sense.

He's still in tier one of quarterbacks for you. Wilson and Herbert are just behind him in tier two. I could talk myself into wanting those guys at their price over Dak Prescott when you consider some of the concerns. Beyond that, it gets a little dicey to me. I think I'd rather have him than pretty much everybody, except for those two guys, everyone that's going after him. But I completely understand it.

Let's get to one of those guys that you have just below him and a little bit higher than a lot of people do. And that's Joe Burrow. What do you feel like the overall discourse around Joe Burrow is right now? Because I think it was trending down, down, down at the beginning of camp. It's come up a little bit after me. Maybe it's because I was there and I watched him a little bit and he looked good and the vibe there is a lot better than it was.

Where is the fantasy temperature on Joe Burrow as it currently sits? It's still a little trepid. It really comes down to, I think people are worried about the injury. They're worried about the fact that he, as you mentioned, didn't look very good to start from reports from the camp. The Jamar Chase factor is coming into play here, even though that's not on him. So it's starting to come back around, but, you know, I had a draft just last week. And now this is before this weekend happened, but it was just last week where I took him as my only quarterback. And he was QB 14 off the board.

So I have him at QB9. and I think it's kind of ridiculous. And the reason I haven't QB9, what I've already said to you is volume. I currently have Joe Burrow projected for the most pass attempts in the NFL. And that's beyond anybody, the most, period, ahead of Mahomes, ahead of Rogers, ahead of Tom Brady, all of them, because of Cincinnati's offense and partly because they're defense,

but this is just what you're looking at here is even if Chase is off to a rough start. 640, 650 pass attempts from Joe Burrow, let's remember why you loved Joe Burrow last year. And even let's look at Joe Burroughs rookie season. And if you look at the volume he had on yardage and attempts, the touchdowns, which is something that comes into projections, the touchdown rate was actually under what you would normally attribute any quarterback, let alone one of his assumed talent, as we've seen,

from being it's similar to the opposite of the 2016 Falcons, whereas like there's no way they can repeat that touchdown success. We understand that. You know, regression happens in sports, but there are outlier seasons. The outlier for Joe Burrow last year is what he did, even in that limited time, he should have thrown for more touchdowns. So those should come around with the addition of Chase.

I'm still not writing Chase off completely similar to Burrow. This is why you capitalize on overreactions in preseason. Yeah, I think I could see it going both ways. I could see their defense being better. They've invested a lot in it. I don't love some of the investments that they've made, but I do think it's going to be better than it was last year. And I talked to Brian Callahan last week and even,

talking to Zach Taylor a little bit, it really does seem like they are committed to running the ball more. And not only just because it's one of those, we need to run the ball more bullshit coaching things, I think they believe they need to run the ball more and sprinkle that in that version of their offense where they're under center a little bit more,

everything else, in order to hunt for big plays. They just don't feel like they were available to them as much as they needed to be last year, and that's one way to find them. So if they're running it a little bit more, they're not as spread out, if they're not trailing by as much, I could see them not throwing as much as they did last year

nearly at that clip. That being said, I could also see them being a little bit more efficient, hitting a few more big plays, all of that stuff. So I like Joe Burrow. I just think that the conversation we had about two about what would need to go right for him to be a top 10 quarterback, I think there's a lot that has to go right with Joe Burrow. Even if we think he's a little bit mobile,

I still think that's a tough needle to thread for him to be a top 10 guy just with his arm. Well, so here you go. Here's a perfect thing to you. For people out there, if you are subscribed to Athletic, the downloadable projections, you can customize them. You can change. You can sit here and be like, I don't like what you're saying, Jake.

You're an idiot. So to what you're talking about for your point. So I actually have them for a 6040 split, almost on the nose. I'm 59.9% pass 40.1 rush out of 1,000. So I've got 642 pass attempts. Maybe if you look at it and say, I think they rush a little bit more than that, It's not just 40.1. Or you could say, I don't think they run that many plays because they're not on the field as much.

Maybe the defense is competent, middle of the pack. And those are numbers you can play with. You could also say, I'm too aggressive in my yards per attempt at 7.6 for Joe Burrow. So you can play with all these things. But at the 642 pass attempts, for me, that gets Joe Burrow 4,800 yards and 32 touchdowns. Maybe you think the touchdown rate is also high. But those are all the numbers. And I'm throwing that out to say, you can see where you could make arguments, as you said, to thread the needle.

You can see where you can make the arguments completely against everything I have in the projections and go through it and knock him down, which would easily knock him down not only outside of top 10. You can knock him down right by Tua. I think it's a good argument. I really do. I think that yards per attempt could actually be up there. And they played a pretty good clip, don't they? Where do they rank in pace? Pretty high.

Yeah. They're one of the higher pace. So even if they are running more, it still would be better than like Jason Garrett and the Clapper out there. all right let's get to one of his teammates here it's not good for jubar chase right now and so it has been a very public failing for jemar chase after last weekend everyone saw the drops

and this when you're playing fantasy is something you have to consider what is the public sentiment around a player as we're getting to drafts so clearly he's falling in regard to everyone watching football but are you buying the fall or do you think that there might be a little bit of value to be had with Jamar Chase after what's happened over the last few days. So can I say both?

And I'll explain why. So I am saying fall, but this is going to actually tie back into like the fields and Lance. So I'm buying the value, but I'm buying the fall as well because maybe we don't see him on the field as much for the first game, two, three, whatever it is to get him to the and he's admittedly said he's part of the problem. He said he's not up to the speed in the NFL. It kind of took him by surprise.

All these type of things that we're hearing. And drops, the overreaction from fantasy to get the sense of the world that we're in right now is drops or drops. You cannot predict drops. Like we watch the Eric Ebrons of the world. We watch, you know, the Evan Ingrams of the world. We watch it go the opposite direction. And again, it goes back to volume. The reason also, Jemar Chase in college, you know this.

One of the least amount of drops ever by wide receiver. I think what do you have won the one year? So these things are fluid. You can have an off day. Deonti Johnson, another one. People crapped all over him last year for that. So don't overreact too much through drops as a fantasy value because it really kind of goes out the windows.

What I'll say here is that, yes, I did move to Marche's down. But that was more because of the percentage of volume of targets over the season. I still think he is the best receiver on that team. I still think, in my opinion, he's one of the top 10 wide receivers in the past five drafts, honestly. Could that year off be part of the problem? you know, you could bake that in as well, but whatever it might be, I think the good comparison is Lansing Fields is that you pay the price a little bit higher than what you expect for the

first two, three weeks of production, but you're paying for once he is the alpha in that team alongside and maybe it's Higgins and him as a 1A, 1B situation, but whatever it might be, you're paying for once he's settled and once he's comfortable with Burrow. By the way, let's not discount the fact that how much Burrow keeps talking him up and says, I'll get him right. Like, he put it on him. I'll get him right. So I'm confident that the borough connection is going to continue from what we saw in college. Drops are not a thing to me, especially with a guy like that. To me, it's that he looks uncomfortable.

And that is not surprising. And I'm not taking a victory lap on Jamar Chase two weeks into the preseason here. But I always said, and I talk, I've had a lot of conversations about this with people because I think it's a fascinating discussion about where you draft receivers and where you can find and where you should look for them. If I'm going to draft the receiver in the top five, he's got to be a hall of famer walking off the bus. Just point blank. And Jamar Chase was not that. I went to practice and he's standing next to T. Higgins and T. Higgins looks like a tight end.

And Jamar Chase just looks like a guy. And he, I think he could be a very good player. But the style he played at LSU is he was a bully. That is what he played like. He's muslin people around. That's not going to work at the NFL level. You need to actually separate in order to play when you're built like him. If you're a monster and you want to be able to push people around at that position, you can't.

He's not built like that. So there's going to be a transition for him. He absolutely can figure out. He's absurdly talented. But I am not surprised that when he's getting like really jammed off the line of scrimmage, when he's getting shocked as he's getting into routes and things like that and timing is a little bit off as a result of it, this isn't surprising to me that he looks a little bit unsettled. So I think that you could bet on the talent and maybe find some value here.

But what he looks like right now is not shocking to me. No. And it's funny that you say this. in my next. So I do positive negatives and equal for my draft profiles when I do players. And actually the first sentence paraphrasing, whatever I said, but I said, strong corners get on top of him, knock him off. Knock him off the routes, knock him off his position. So where I'm going to say is, I will compare him in a different way before everybody is like, how do you say D.K. Metcalf because he's nothing like D.K. Metcalfe. But I'm saying if the Bengals use him the right way, you can get back.

Like he does need to clean up his routes and find ways to get off those strong corners. So use that speed to get behind the corners. Use his ability to track balls and use them to, you know, on the outlaw parameter. Similar to the Seahawks didn't try to force D.K. Metcalf to be it inside and come back route runner. They said like we'll use what his strengths are. So I will agree and say that's another, you know,

concern possibly is that the bangles don't let him just be him until he grows into more. That could actually stunt his entire rookie season. If I'm taking a guy in the top five, he should be grown in. that's just that's where I'm out with this that's that's where I'm at with this I that's how I was from the from day one so at least I've been consistent all right let's get to a couple running backs here how much is it painting you that Michael Carter is not getting time with the ones with the Jets as the world's foremost Michael Carter booster are you doing okay hey I have other people in the same boat

with me but yes yeah put it this way this is one where I'm like you know what I'd rather take the discount too because similar to his teammate in college Javante william william. Williams. You know, I never expected either one of them to be the guy out of the gate. We don't see that a lot of times unless you are drafted like an Ajay Harris to be the guy. So I'll go back to Miles Sanders rookie season where it took till week six, seven, eight, until you're the guy. That's where I was drafting Michael Carter and Giovante Williams, both as expected to be like, they'll take over, but it's going to take some time. So I'm happy about this because the hype and the steam on Michael Carter and Williams was getting so high that they were starting to creep into the fifth round. And then you were seeing some people like, oh, well, I want them.

So I'm going to take them at the end of the fourth. I'm like, all right, well, now I don't get my guy. So I'm happy about this. What it comes down to is both situations. I always say this more so, in my opinion, in fantasy, the talent wins out at running back because they eventually do take over. They eventually do show out. Jonathan Taylor last year, the injury, obviously the Marlon Mac, but Jonathan Taylor was going to take over at some point. It just like Cam Acres, perfect example.

It took a lot of the year for it to happen. but he finally got it and he showed why he was the best option. So that's where I am on Michael Carter. Now that being said for everybody out there that doesn't know, maybe hasn't watched Michael Carter, he's never going to be Williams Taylor as then they can be a bell cow, 20 plus touches every single week. But can he be Austin Echler where he gets 14 to 16 and you just use him in his dynamic ability? Yes, because a lot of people got overshadowed by Williams and not really realizing how good

Michael Carter was at UNC because all they saw was Williams and they didn't pay attention. to the highlights watching Michael Carter. I had a decision, possibly, whether I wanted to take Carter or Sermon yesterday. Carter went at 9, and it's because it's keeper, it's a little bit different. I think for this year, I think Michael Carter might be the better bet

just because I do think the path is clearer. Next year, when Moster is a free agent, I just wanted to bet on what could be the number one running back in that offense. A guy they traded up to get. I mean, you have the baseline and just the backlog of proof of concept for what that Niners run game can look like. And with Carter, it's a little bit murkier,

but I believe in the infrastructure there. They went and got John Benton, who is the offensive line coach for the Niners for years. He's their run game coordinator. I think that's a huge, huge hire for a first year offensive coordinator. And I do think that he's going to be the most dynamic player in that group.

To me, it's just, it's tough to sift through. I love the fact that you're still believing, though. I appreciate that. So speaking of tough to sift through, who is the real Miles Gaskin after two weeks of the preseason? Because as somebody who has had to dig around in the running back dead zone a little bit in prep for drafts this year in a way that really, really upsets me, he was one of those names that keeps coming back. And I think that you absolutely, before you saw the usage with Malcolm Brown and everything else, could have talked to yourself into him being one of the better options in that group, in that collection of players.

now we've had two kind of divergent weeks and usage from him. How are you feeling about where he might land between those two poles? Yes, I think he's fine if you want an RB2 and you don't go running back early. So if you went wide receivers, you took Kelsey or Waller or Kittle earlier or something like that. And he ends up being your RB2. Ideally, he should be your flex. And what I'll say after the first two games, and this is for somebody that likes Gaskin. I was the Gaskin guy who called it.

I was like, no, no, no, I just saw the possibility to be this. He could be the lead of a timeshare. I don't think he's ever supposed to be or ever was going to be a lead of a backfield where like, oh, my God, this running back is amazing. I just thought there was some untapped potential. That being said, and I put that out to say, like, I'm a gaskin fan. I'm still obviously concerned by the first two weeks, but not as concerned as a lot of people are a lot of people, oh, my God, like he's going to lose all these touches.

No, he's going to lose 50% or so, but 50% is still his and 50% for most. running backs in fantasy isn't the worst. It's better than dealing with the Buccaneers backfield and chasing your tail every single week because with Miles Gaskin, the thing is, is what we saw from the first two weeks is it might be Malcolm Brown sometimes. It might be Ahmed sometimes, but the consistent 50% is Gaskin. So that's okay. So no, he wasn't going to be a top 20 running back, but it can be a nice RB3, potentially

again, RB2 if you went wide receiver heavy. Sure. And that's not every running back can be a top 12 running back. That's why they're in these positions that they're in. Yeah, I totally agree. And I just think that we talk about cream rising the top with running backs. He's the best guy. He's the best guy that they have.

And I also think that if you believe in this Dolphins offense, and I mean, if you think Tua looks good and you think they're trending in the right direction, I think he is a way to invest in the Dolphins offense at a discount as things currently stand right now. And that's something where I may have to do that. I mean, I have Kelsey and Diggs and a very past catcher laden team. And that's one of those things where I only have a little bit of money left over right now. And those are the types of guys. I'm going to have to take swings on, and I think he might be worth one of those swings.

All right, let's get to some running backs and where you split a little bit from ADP. And let's start with a point on which we are in total agreement. You have Austin Eckler at running back seven compared to a running back 10 consensus. I do not understand why Austin Eckler is not being mentioned, at least right alongside Aaron Jones, maybe even a little bit ahead of Aaron Jones. This is a scenario where the Packers invested a second round pick and AJ Dylan. I understand they love Aaron Jones.

You have, again, talking about proof of concept. You have Alvin Camara. You can just look at Alvin Camara. Even if you think that I called them, what are their names? Josh Kelly and Justin Jackson. So I've been calling them Joshua Jackson, like the guy from Dawson's Creek,

just an amalgamation of the two guys. I'm going to keep doing that now, even though I know I'm doing it. So even with Joshua Jackson behind him, I still think that his ability and his perceived role and projected role in that offense, to me, I would just be hammering that at every possible opportunity. Absolutely. The pushback people give on Austin Ecklers never carried the ball 150 times. And yet, even doing so, he's been a top five running back. How many times has Alvin Camer had done that? Well, he's never got, I think Alvin Camer is in the 160s to 1.00.

70s range. So it's not that much more. But yeah, the shrug exactly. By the fact that Larry Roundtree was getting talked, that just tells you what's behind Austin Echler. And that's what it comes down to is that if everybody was talking up Alvin Comeris, like, okay, he could get used more in the running game. You get used more in the running game. Again, if you just, oh my God, if you gave me Alvin Comerous treatment. So now what, 40, 50, I'm assuming carries over top Austin Eccler's career high. I think it's like 130. But with Austin Echler, if he even got that, but he doesn't need to if like you that's the thing is like he doesn't because even if he doesn't get that he's already had the one 2130 and still finishes the top five running back because of how good he is

in the passing game you brought that up earlier about not running routes as a as a running back he does and he scores touchdowns when he touches the ball he finds the end zone he finds the space and if he gets 300 touches which i don't even think is a possibility i think he can finish top three but if he just gets his 250 yeah he's going to be where i have him he's just outside of that top group. And I'll tell you this, Robert, I just did a draft. It's a guillotine league. So this kind of adds to why the, you know, I had the consideration of the fifth pick.

And I took them over Sequin Barclay. Because I like, I know I'm going to get Austin Echler 100% in week one. I'm not going to get knocked out by Sequin Barclay, potentially only getting 60% in week one. And I, that's exactly what the thought process I would bring to it is that I don't think the guys ahead of him are that much safer. I feel like every single one of those guys has a couple, two, three, arguments against them. I think the locked and loaded bulletproof dudes in this draft, it's a really short list to me. And that's why I just think that overall, even with his warts, I would be willing to bet on Austin Ecclure this year. Let's get to more guys here in this

terrifying zone in which I'm going to have to live come Saturday. Mike Davis, you have him at running back 18 compared to a running back 22 consensus. More importantly for me is where you have him tiered. You have him in tier three for you at the position and ahead. of guys in these murky committees like Josh Jacobs, Kareem Hunt, Travis E.T.N. And I think that placement is very telling. And I assume it feeds into why you have him in that spot. Volume.

That's what it is. It's volume. It really comes down to look at what's behind them. They're bringing him down to Foreman, as in like, all right, we need to find. I love Javian Hawkins.

I think he should have been drafted, but we're still talking about somebody who could be a Tarek Cohen, who also still has to make the team. Like, this is, Andre's not guaranteed to be on there. Caleb Huntley, undrafted free agent. You know, they're talking about using Cordellah Patterson out of the backfield. There is nobody behind Mike Davis that should touch him week in and week out.

So the concern you have for Mike Davis is like, well, okay, what if Hawkins does make the team in the passing game? Davis just showed you last year how good he could be in the passing game. Davis stepped in for Christian McCaffrey and was a fringe RB1 and an entire time. So now you get the pushback. I'll give you the other. I'm playing devil's advocate on myself here. He's pushed back, well, he kind of wore down. Did he?

Because I remember a really big game towards the end of the season that Mike Davis put up. So maybe he wears down over the full season because he's quote unquote never done it before. But as you keep bringing up is, where are the questions with the players you're taking around them? If you're telling me the players that are around Mike Davis, what do I know about Mike Davis? Is outside of injury, he's walking to 300 touches in the Falcons offense, whatever questions you might have about the Falcons. He's one of the top three weapons, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, and him, whether or not you want to figure out Russell Gage and Zachias and all the rest of him. But he's one of the top three weapons in the Falcons offense. That's all that matters.

I think you could absolutely argue that his infrastructure is as good or better with Atlanta right now as it was with Carolina last year. You have an offensive line that might be better than that Panthers' offensive line was. I'd have to really think about it. But I feel comfortable saying they're right there, probably a little bit better. You have proven quarterback and a number one. receiver and let's see what's happening with Kyle Pitts. And then this is also a bet on Arthur Smith. Like if you can get Mike Davis in this range, you are making a bet on a guy who I truly believe is one of the best three or four offensive coaches in the league. And you watch what he did

over the last couple years, how flexible he was, how much he was willing to evolve, the way that they could build an offense around the players that he has. I want that, especially when you, again, you consider the price and the other guys going in this range. those other guys don't have Arthur Smith. They've just gotten the most out of their skill position players. I mean, you look at, I want to say AJ Brown was third and Corey Davis was sixth and yards per outrun last year. You look at the production that you got from a guy like Derek Henry.

You look at where Ryan Tannihill wasn't every single efficiency metric. On a per touch basis, these guys are going to get the most out of them. And if you believe in the touches, then we're getting to a big number as we start multiplying. Do you want a fun random set? Like, okay, don't put all your information. Like, again, because play action is play action. So it's just, it's a fun nugget. Do you know the number one wide receiver and yards per route run in play action last year?

What would be your guess? Because you just- Calvin Ridley. No, Corey Davis. Oh, that's not surprising. I'm not surprising at all. Calvin Ridley also, I mean, you have a lot of those deeper down-the-field concepts that they ran off play action, which I assume is going to be a huge part of their offense again.

He's also a monster when it comes to that kind of stuff. So I completely understand Mike Davis in this. range. You're a little bit down comparatively on D'Andre Swift. Is that because you feel like Jamal Williams is going to get a bigger role than a lot of other people do? 100%. So when I wrote about ADPs, I wasn't fond of, the very first sentence I said is, I love D'Andre Swift the player, period. Let me establish that. Like that's what I put there. It's like, please understand this. Go back to my draft. I do tears just like this. I do tears when I do the draft, too. It's like I don't rank them because Landy's spot depends and stuff like that.

And my tier was three guys in tier one. It was Taylor, Swift, and Dobbins. Those were my three. I love DeAndre Swift, the player. I can hate somebody's situation. And I don't absolutely hate it. But what do we know about Anthony Lennon's uses of running backs? What do we know about the fact that he brought in Jamal Williams,

who let's talk about Jamal Williams because some of the pushback I get is, oh, the lines are going to have to pass a ton. And it's DeAndre Swift. Yes, DeAndre Swift is a super dynamic, talented running back. Jamal Williams is better on passing downs. the people believe like or actually know he's one of the better pass blockers as a running back so that doesn't mean that swift is going to get all of the passing game work so that's just really what it comes down to and then on top of it you're talking about how effective this offense is the rushing touchdowns play a factor and does he lose some of those to jemal williams and it's just more of the split than anything i would love if d'andre swift average 17 18 touches per week i just don't know that that happens with anthony and win this offense speaking of 17 or 18 touches a week let's get to Gerald Henderson, who you have firmly in that tier up with the Clyde Edwards, Hilar, the Antonio Gibson's, the J.K. Dobbins, which I think is a fairly optimistic projection for him,

but one I understand. Because if we're looking at guys in that tier below, we just talked about it. That's where the workload and the role and everything else and the splits get a little bit murky. I think if you're looking at the downsides for a guy like Darrell Henderson, it's mostly just injury. and I'm willing to bet against him getting hurt more than I'm willing to bet against a somewhat whatever, a random and fast and immediate shift in workload with some of these other guys. That's why I think I'm with you. I think he is worth that kind of bet in this range because the injury downside to me is that's more fragile than some of the workload concerns with these other guys.

Yeah, everybody is an injury risk until they're not. You know, let's go back to Leonard Fernette. coming out of college, there was questions. And then what happened? The first two seasons of Lennifer Nett's career. Hurt. Hurt. And then what happened?

He ends up being a top five running back because he plays the entire season on volume. You know, Leonard Frenet wasn't even that good. It was just volume. So this is Daryl Henderson is not just the talent, which I'm fan of. And I've always been a fan of Daryl Henderson's talent. But I chuckled when you said this because I find this in fantasy is sometimes people want to ignore when the answer is right in front of their face. and before Acres got hurt, everybody was talking up, oh, don't forget about Henderson in the ninth, tenth round, one of the best backups you could possibly draft.

Acres goes down and all of a sudden it's, well, what about Xavier Joe? Well, what about Jake Funk and Kalaas and all? He's going to lose touches. He can't be a belk. You were just arguing. Now the answers in front of your face. Don't make it so difficult, people. Sometimes it's really simple, stupid in front of you.

And you overthink. Go back to Emery Hunt. He calls it smooth brains. thinking. You're not losing the parts where your brain's supposed to be functioning. And yeah, it's volume and you mentioned it. He is a home run play at running back waiting to happen. He doesn't need 20 carries a game to be a top 20 running back. I'd be willing to bet on this offense in this running game because it's consistently one of the best in the league. Again, if injury is the downside and injury is the concern, that's a more worthwhile downside to me than

some of these others. Very quickly, who are your favorite just dart throws outside of the top 50 at running back that you feel like are worth it near the end of dress. Yeah, I'll go to Chuba Hubbard. That's the easy one. We just talked about Mike Davis before. If you're looking for if Christian McAfrey gets hurt, you know, everybody's talking up to Vante Booker like he's something special, but it's because what happens if Sequin Barclay gets hurt.

You look for the backfields where the clear option is back there, like the Williams is, Jamal Williams, Damien Williams, Daryl Williams, assuming all those guys are healthy. But I think those are great dart throws. If you start to get super deep, we talked about the Harris situation earlier. I was a Stevenson guy in the fact. that I kind of compared to the Legerat Blunt, as in that's what he could be in this offense. He could be their new Legerat Blunt where he's just the pounder. And that's if

something happened to Sony Michelle and maybe De Aramette Harris doesn't come through. You start getting super deep there. So let's go back up, not quite as deep. Go back to the injury thing. If he can just stay healthy, it's finally Rashad Penny's year, right? That's if he could just stay healthy. I just want to see this guy stay on the field just because I just want to see what he can do if he's on the field. I mean, it's one of those things. And when you're in this range, you're not going to feel good about any of them. And it's who you feel the least bad about. And I think that you absolutely could spin it for Rashad Penny in that moment.

You also have Xavier Jones, who's now, I think, in theory, the backup to Darrell Henderson a lot higher than most people do. And that's mostly because of volume. Jake Funk was fun last week. But if you told me Xavier Jones versus Jake Funk, I'll take Jones. But this is one of the ones where, you know, I actually don't know that this wouldn't just turn into the Chargers. if something happened last year where it's just every single week and then they go pick up

kaelin belage off of tf waivers off the street somewhere and he ends up being the best option it really comes down to if something happens i want you want a piece of this offense you want the running back in this offense so i'll give the edge to zavier jones but you know if it ends up being an entire cluster um i i wouldn't be shocked but where he's going i mean again he's at the end of draft so why not i just did an industry draft where zavier jones wasn't even drafted and i was shocked All right, let's get to some of these receivers. We're going to be here for six hours. So Deonti Johnson, you have him at wide receiver 16 compared to what is a wide receiver 21 consensus.

You have him ahead of guys like Huio, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, DJ Moore. What is your thought about Deante Johnson and why he deserves to be there? So really, and he's Deont Bay, to me, by the way. Make sure you call him by the right name. So I went through and I said if you take his 11 games last year outside the two where he didn't finish, barely played one of those games, and then the one where he got, benched. He's wide receiver five in fancy points per game. All right. So let's counter argument come back to me and say, well, he got benched because of the drops and then all

the things that were in his head. All right, let's include that game. Still wide receiver 11. He's the number one option in that offense in the passing game. And he's the most consistent, most dynamic. If you follow Matt Harmon and his reception, wins on almost every single one of his routes. Deonti Johnson is probably one of the, I'll call him NFL wide receiver ones, that doesn't get treated by an NFL Y receiver won by perception. And I think, again, talking about drops and the perception that comes with drops, you could buy the dip because of that perception with a guy like Deonté Johnson, which I think is a smart way to approach this.

Talent is undeniable. And yeah, he's a Matt Harmon favorite. If you guys have not checked out Matt's work, I would highly recommend it because it'll give you some streamlined opinions of receivers as you get ready for your drafts here. Let's get to a couple more guys here. You have Brandon Cooks at wide receiver 25 compared to wide receiver 34. It's really, really difficult for me to bet on the Texans offense. Be honest with you.

You were a brave, brave man. Look, even if it's Davis Mills, this goes back to the Alan Robinson argument. And you don't even have to pay near wire receiver one close. I should throw this out real quick. The only year of the past five or six that Brandon Cooks hasn't finished as a top 15 wide receiver was the year he got hurt. Okay, sure. He's playing with Sean Watson. He also played with Jared Golf mixed in there.

Denny played with Tom Brady, of course. But all that being said is, even though. worst quarterback in the NFL. If you're getting 150 targets, where is the competition for targets? We're talking about rookie Nico Collins. We're talking about Chris Conley talking about Kiki QT because Anthony Miller's hurt again. Like, where is the competition for targets? Walking into 150 targets, you can be getting passes from me and I'll still draft you inside the top 30. Well, probably not for me. But you get the point. I'm just going to take the volume at receiver because here's the simple math, Robert. Even if he only catches half of those,

75 catches. And 75 catches for Brandon Cooks. It's over 1,000 yards and six or seven touchdowns. I completely understand why it could be a value. To me, it forces me to watch the Texans offense all year. And I, hey, if you don't want to watch the Texans, then don't draft them. I'll say that. I always try to balance what I want to watch and how good of a time I want to have

with how badly I want to win fantasy football games. And this is one of those where it's going to get a little bit dicey. A guy I'm going to be watching a lot of anyway is Darno Mooney. You have him at wide receiver 42 compared to a wide receiver 50 consensus. You have him right alongside guys like Jerry Judy ahead of Leviska-Schanal, Jalen Waddle. You're speaking my language here, but why are you so high on Darnal Mooney? Really? Because I admittedly was one of the people that was shocked.

He made as much as an impact as a rookie as he did. I was expecting more year two, three as the development down the road. But you saw he immediately put up the opportunity for his talent to take over. it did it took over Anthony Miller but it also took over the fact of what Anthony Miller versus Darnal Mooney could be and Anthony Miller more of a slot than Darnel Mooney is and if you watch which I know you did but people go back there and watch some of the players from last year where Darnal Mooney is wide open downfield and passes are falling five yards short to the left to the right and what I compared it to if you don't want to go watch remember how many times O'Dell Beckham was

mistrown by Eli Manning that's what happened to Darleney last year so you get some competent quarterback play into a second year, which you brought up Antonio Gibson earlier, is making a lot of development in his rookie season, is there was a lot of development by Mooney just in last year alone. And now is the number two. That's a volume standpoint. Andy Dalton, I don't think if you get Andy Dalton the past two years, that's the best quarterback you possibly want, but especially if he gets Justin Fields.

And for everybody going Gaga back when Zach Wilson did that rollout pass before the draft, we remember that one where everybody was like losing their mind on Twitter that entire day. Oh, how come nobody was. talking about the fact that Justin Fields was just doing that all the time and did that same exact play. So you get Justin Fields arm with Darnal Mooney and oh my God, please. He'll finish. If you told me Justin Fields was starting week one, I would have Dernal Mooney inside my top 35. That's, I trust me. That would make me the happiest man in America. So that's totally fine with me. A couple I wanted to hit that I thought were interesting, squeezing together the ADPs with a couple teammates.

You're higher on Debo Samuel than consensus and lower in Brandon I, you guys, those have to be connected. same go is for Emmanuel Sanders and Gabe Davis. I totally buy the Emmanuel Sanders and Gabe Davis thing. I think they went out and got Emmanuel Sanders for a reason. You're overpaying for Davis at this point. You're underpaying for Sanders. I think that's totally fair. With the Niners part of it, I think Ayuk might just be a star.

And that to me is where I would be a little bit hesitant about that, even if I understand the thinking that goes into that smaller gap in your mind. Yeah, so for what you're talking about for everybody, out there is the smaller gap is that I have Iuk at 26 and Debo at 30. I said this very thing last year. I said, I thought it was weird that they drafted Iuk who has a lot of similarities to Debo, but if you're talking about the one that wins outside, it's Ayuk. And that was my concern long term for Debo.

What it comes down to as well is I draw a little bit of a parallel to the Kansas City chiefs and the fact that it's Hill, Kelsey, and then everybody's just trying to figure out if it's going to be Harbin and blah. It doesn't matter. It didn't matter when it was Watkins. It was Watkins for week one and then never the rest of the season. It doesn't matter because it's those two, those two, those two, those two. Where this is a little different, I think it's those three, but they kind of cannibalize each other.

If Kiddle doesn't bounce back 100% and he falls back a little bit, I'd be with you more in Iyuk. And again, I have Iyuk over Debo. It just comes down to a volume standpoint. And honestly, part of it is I do have Trey Lance starting, I want to say somewhere around 75% of the season. and the Trey Lance factor for me actually hurts Iyuk a little bit, just because I'm worried about the accuracy issues and hitting his targets.

And so the reception percentage comes down. These are all the way I go back to. You can play with the projections. And you can say that Iyuk's going to get 20% and that D-Bah's only going to get 15%, which if you want to make that argument, go right ahead. But I just think they're going to be very close in targets. And if you want where I said,

I brought up the whole Josh Allen comparison before, is what helped Josh Allen develop and what they learned from Cam Newton, with the Panthers is stop trying to give him big body outside guys. Get them guys who get open quicker. And if you're giving me the one of the two of those and who would help Tray Lance Moore, that's Debo for me. Now, again, I could be wrong, but that's where I'm leaning and why I have him so close.

I understand that. All right, very quickly here, your favorite dart throws outside of the top 50th position at receiver. Okay, so Sterling's Shepherd, but that actually hinges on Kenny Gallaudet being healthy. I don't want, it's so weird. I don't want, I don't want, I don't want Sherpard if Kenny Gallaudy's out, but I do want him if Kenny Galdi's out. Godde is playing because Shepard's numbers in and outside of the slot are dynamically different.

Like he's so much better in that position. As anybody who's watched that team knows. So Sterling Shepherds won. Tyra Williams, this actually goes to our beat writer Chris Burke who said that immediately that he thought he was going to be the number one because again, the Anthony Lynn connection and he could be the number one is on the field to this date more than Bershardt, Perrimand. But I think the intriguing one is one of the more talented, in my opinion, rookies and Terrace Marshall, who I said this, and I'm kind of curious if you agree.

But when he came out, I said he's one of the most gifted wide receivers who has too much coverage on top of him because he's a lazy route runner. He doesn't take it seriously. And that's, I compared to know Marquise Lee when Marquise Lee came out. And you saw Marquis Lee took about two or three years before he got better because he was so dominant in college that he didn't run the most crisp routes. And he didn't get separation all the time. If he was Terrace Marshall, there's defenders on his back. But he's so damn good at catching the ball, it didn't matter. So if Terrace Marshall just runs a little bit of Clisper routes and Robbie Anderson misses some time, as Robbie Anderson, or he even steps past Robbie Anderson, which I don't think is necessarily going to happen.

But there's the opportunity where at worst case, he's the number three. At best case, he turns into the number two. And if Terris Marshall is the number two on any NFL team, I think there's top 40 upside right there. I mean, with Marshall, I mean, the difference between him and a guy like Marquis Lee is Marshall is built like you, the receiver you build in a laboratory. It runs fast. So I had, going back, I had the option to pick him, Elijah Moore, or Bateman in that keeper draft, and I picked Terrace Marshall. I would do the same. I just think that if you look at the physical profile, it is so hard to bet against guys like that who are already showing that they can be productive.

He's immediate day one starter in that offense. I mean, even if you're worried about him being the number three and what the pecking order is, all of that stuff, I wouldn't get chased off his role. and the order of the receivers in that and saying, well, Bateman or more could be the number one guy, I still think that Marshall's physical profile and the fact that he's going to be in a three-receiver offense from day one as a starter, I think it's a worthwhile bet.

100%. All right. That's all we got. There's so much more stuff we get hip. We've already been talking for an hour. I mean, I'm drafting at the same time. I don't know. If you want to keep going a little bit more, I'm good.

Jake Sealy, thank you very, very much. Guys, like Jake mentioned, please go check out all the fantasy tools at the athletic. You can look at Jake's rankings. You can look at just so many different granular ideas about draft strategy, positional tiering, all of that stuff is available on the athletic. If you're not using it for your drafts, you are absolutely missing out. Jake, thank you very, very much for the time, man.

This is fun. I appreciate you having me on. All right, it's time now to welcome the Athletics Packers writer. Matt, how you doing, buddy? I'm fantastic. It was hot as Hades out there today. It was warm today. Holy hell.

It was warm. I got some water in me. I'm good. Finally see the Packers and Aaron Rogers go up against another team. I know it's the Jets, but we're getting closer to the season. He looked really sharp today. I mean, not surprising, right? I mean, at this point, year whatever in the system.

Year two of, I think, extreme buy-in is how I would describe it into the system. And, I mean, the ball down the left sideline to MVS was gorgeous. I mean, the type of just pinpointing. and ridiculous drop it in the bucket stuff that we expect from him, but also some stuff over the middle of the field. I mean, they look really sharp. And again, to be expected at this point. Yeah, what I realized, I was talking to our Jets writer Connor Hughes is in town. And he said, does Rogers do this every day? Just like even in routes on air, just flinging the ball with a flick of the wrist. There are no dead ducks, no wobbling. It's just really sharp all the time.

And I guess maybe it's because I'm used to it because I watch it every day. But you kind of get a sense for how different he is. And certainly during team drills, I wouldn't say the Packers' offense was great today in comparison to what they can be, but Rogers was killing the Jets on slants and he did a, he was kind of picking on Bless Austin, the Jets' Young Corner. A couple miscommunications. Devante Adams was wide open a couple times and kind of got the ball nowhere near him, but both the Packers' ones and twos on offense scored. And overall, I think when you watch a practice, this you see why the Packers are who we thought they were and the Jets are a rebuilding franchise. That's funny. I was talking to Nathaniel Hackett this morning and I mentioned something about

Rogers being the best at something ever and he just, correct me, he's like he's the best quarterback ever. He's the most talented quarterback ever. And then that you just have to reset your brain sometimes, especially for me when I'm bouncing around all these places as at Rams Camp and I'm watching Aaron Donald do individual drills. It's like we just did it. He's number 20, whatever, four on the athletics top 100 of all time. It's like, that's one of the greatest football players that's ever lived. Aaron Rogers number 21, my story coming tomorrow morning.

There you go. Well, today. It'll be on the athletic today. So check it out. And that's kind of the thing. It's just like you watch them practice and we're here to do a job and you want to watch it with an analytical lens and everything else. But at the same time, every once in a while, it's like, that's one of the greatest players that's ever played the sport. And to even watch them practice and the things you can kind of pick up doing it

and what makes them special. I try not to get numb to those things. You try to really lock in and appreciate it in the moment every once in a while, especially for me when I'm not here every day. Yeah, no, it really is special just watching how he goes about his business. And what's also kind of cool is you have guys like Amari Rogers, the rookie slot receiver. It's a great point. Josh Myers, the rookie center from Ohio State who's going to start for them.

And then you see him today interacting with Zach Wilson, the number two overall pick. And it's, yeah, it's one thing to realize Aaron Rogers' greatness, but it's cool to see the other people kind of picking things from him to kind of help their game. And even if it's, you know, Amari Rogers picking stuff from Devante Adams or, you know, Cole Van Lannan, who grew up 10 minutes from here, the rookie sixth round pick, picking David Bactiari's brain. Like the Packers have four guys, Rogers, Baxiari, Adams, and Jaira Alexander, who you could say are the best in the NFL at their respective positions. And prominent players in our player drafts this spring on the athletic football show. Yes. And just to say, you could say, are the best in the NFL, you know,

and just to see kind of how they lead their groups in addition to watching them do their own thing is kind of cool to see. So you mentioned Josh Myers. I think if you're looking at the offense, obviously we know some of the principal players. Bakhtiari is going to be, we'll get to that. Bakhtiari is going to be back eventually.

Aaron Jones is back. Devonty Adams is back. MvS is here. Most of the receivers are static and then you drop Randall Kavana. The offensive line is where the changes are happening. And so you look at that group today. Some of that will fall into place when David Bakhtiari comes back.

But even in the moment, you're looking at those three new interior pieces and all of that shuffling I think for another team you'd be worried about it and say oh man they're missing their left tackle for the first however long the fact they could just pop jenkins out there for four games or five games or however long it's going to be before bactiari gets back right or wrong i'm just less worried about their offenses ability to sustain because he's able to have that flexibility and kind of plug that gap for as long as he needs to and then when he comes back now you're looking at a new starting rookie center and a new right guard but fewer moving pieces than there are at this exact moment.

Right. Yeah, I definitely think the O-line is a concern, and you saw, let's say, against, I mean, both times against the Buccaneers last year, but in the NFC championship game, David Bokhtiari tears his ACL prepping for Week 17 against the Bears. They survived the Rams and Aaron Donald, but then Shaq Barrett and JPP just wreaked havoc when they had Rick Wagner and Billy Turner at tackle in the NFC championship. I couldn't remember who the left tackle was. Yeah, that's right. Billy Turner at left tackle, I believe, and then Rick at right tackle. I might be mistaken there. But regardless, you know, the Packers need to get, had to get better offensive line depth this offseason. That's why they went and drafted three more. They signed Dennis Kelly, who started every game for the Titans last year. He's playing more right tackle with the twos, but it's a better option than Rick Wagner, certainly. And Dennis Kelly played under Matt LaFlor in 2018 when he was the O.C. in Tennessee. But, yeah.

serviceable swing tackle. He's played that role many times. I think that they didn't, him having to start as much as he did in Tennessee last year is not an ideal situation. They drafted Isaiah Wilson in the first round. Yeah, it's only because Taylor LeWan. I mean, he got hurt a couple games in this season. So it's, but now as your swing tackle, you can live

with that. Right or wrong. I'm not worried about it. I just think the line will settle itself. You are worried about it. A little bit. Because you know, you see days like today, I'm going to pull up the quote. You know, Rogers has been very complimentary of Josh Meyer. James Jones's former teammate asked him on NFL network a couple weeks ago.

You know, who's one under the radar guy who can really help this offense? And Rogers said Josh Myers. You know, they're replacing a first team all pro center in Corey Lindsley. Sure, he liked Josh Myers both who are number 71 at Ohio State. Much bigger than Corey Winsley, Josh Myers is. It's tough to replace a guy like that regardless. And a lot of it's the mental side, you know, recognizing defenses. And Rogers said today, he had a rough day today.

did. Mentally, I don't think he was as sharp as he's been. Tomorrow, I expect him to bounce back. And Corey Lindsley never had bad days. If Josh Myers has a bad day like this on a Sunday, it could mean the difference between their season ending, like it did against the Buccaneers. And Billy Turner's kind of been up and down. Royce Newman, he has great hair, but this was really his first full day with the ones. John Runyon Jr. played, I don't know, 40 offensive snaps last year and Elton Jenkins is a stud pro bowl starter last year. He's not really a secret anymore. He left tackle is not what I'm worried about. It's everything else. And when Bactiari comes back, you know, they have the best left side of the line in the league with Bactiari and Jenkins, but

it's everything to the right of Elton Jenkins that worries me a little bit with Bacchari out. I think that's fair. I think you kind of hammering down on it being a little bit more alarmist, I think is right. I just, I trust that group to kind of get solidified with when Bactiari comes back. and especially if Myers can be okay right away. Because like you said, Corey Lindsay didn't have bad days. I wonder if Corey Lindsay had bad days in 2014, though. Most likely.

You have to start right away. And it's been funny because Rogers said today, Lindley has been on him to be more critical of Josh because he's like, you can't be too nice to Josh. Get more out of him because, you know, Rogers gave Lindsay a hard time. And, you know, Lindsay's a guy you can joke with and be serious with when you need to be. but there's no better situation to be in for a rookie center than to be with Aaron Rogers.

So I think he'll be all right. That's kind of the thing that you have to feel good about is that on another team where you might have to put a lot of protection responsibilities on him, when he might have to really process a ton in addition to the quarterback. Now you have a quarterback who can do everything himself. So the mental side of it for a rookie center and this team is not nearly as important as it might be for another team. And that's the only question on the offense is the offensive line because everywhere else is pretty stacked. And has new types of talents, right? The fact that now you have Amari Rogers and even today some of the things they did with him,

we've talked about on the show all the time. He's a different sort of piece. His skill set is different from what they've had over the last two years when you have a little bit of overlap between what was art and MVS give you along with Devante Adams. Now you have that slot-based kind of change your direction, get the ball in his hands kind of player where last year they had to kind of throw Tyler Irvin at that problem. And now they don't have to worry about that anymore.

I've seen more horizontal action in practice in the backfield in two weeks with Amari Rogers than I have in the last two years. And he's not just, he's going to return punts for them. And their punt return team has been dog crap the past couple of years. I'd save myself there. But their punt return team has been terrible. He'll hopefully, you know, for their sake, rejuvenate that. But in terms of what he provides as like a gadget piece out of the backfield, we'll add another element to this offense. in jet motion stuff, reverses.

Like, he can do that. And then he can also line up in the slot and do stuff vertically. They haven't had a true slot receiver since, ironically enough, Randall Cobb. And they bring Randall Cobb back and everyone says, oh, well, it's going to stunt the development of Amari Rogers. No, I think it'll only help him because, you know, if any of your listeners don't know, I know you do. Randall Cobb has known Amari Rogers longer than he's known Aaron Rogers. And he's played with Aaron Rogers since 2011. When Randall Cobb was a wide receiver at Kentucky, T. Martin, the former national champion quarterback from Tennessee, who is also Amari Rogers' dad, was the wide receivers coach at Kentucky.

So Amari Rogers was going to Kentucky's practices as a 12, 13-year-old doing wide receiver drills with Randall Cobb, studying Randall Cobb. Studying Randall Cobb, and they've stayed in touch ever since. Even before the Packers drafted Amari Rogers in the third round, he was studying Randall Cobb, talking to Randall Cobb. And then the Packers draft him and now they're teammates. So I think it's a really nice tandem. And the Packers, you know, the whole thing, the last 15 years has been when they're going to draft a wide receiver in the first round. Their wide receiver room is absolutely stacked. Devin Funches, who looks like a wide receiver.

He's played in a Super Bowl. Had 12 touchdowns combined in 2017, 2018 with the Panthers, hasn't played since week one of the 2019 season, was the best player on the field in the preseason opener. He might get cut because there's just so much depth in that room. I totally forgot he was here. Until I saw him today. I was like, oh, yeah, that's right. He did.

I saw him get carried away in a cart. I also saw Aaron Rogers talking to James and Crowder today. Over under how many days it'll be before the Packer, before he openly lobbies for the Packers who travel to James and Crutter. How many slot receivers can Aaron Rogers get here? I mean. He's making up for lost time. It's exactly what he's doing.

Well, looking at the defense. Adrian Amos was talking today after practice. And I totally forgot until in the moment, he's somebody who played for Vic Fangio. And then you have Joe Barry coming over from working with Brandon Staley last year. I talked to Joe Barry today, and we overstate sometimes how much carryover there is between these systems. Joe Barry has worked in a lot of different defenses. He worked for Monty Kiffin. He worked with Lovie Smith. I mean, but after working with Brands Daley, I'm sure the thought on Matt Will Fleur's mind, on the organization's mind is, let's take what that Rams defense did,

and let's try to replicate it with our personnel. Is that to you what the motivation is for that side of the ball coming into this year? I think so. Yeah, definitely. The Packer, dismantled the Rams defense last year, but just generally what they're able to do. They were the only team that did. Yeah. You can't replicate an Aeron Donald. You can't replicate a Jalen Ramsey really. Sure, the Packers have Kenny Clark and Jaira Alexander,

but just that style of defense. And what intrigues me about that defense, and I think it's overhyped. You hear so much about this star position that, you know, Brandon Staley and Joe Barry had with the Rams. And obviously it's called that because Jalen Ramsey was there, and Jalen Ramsey can do anything. He can be in the slupe. He can be outside. He can stuff the run. He can drop back in coverage.

I'm interested to see what the Packers do with that here. And a lot of people ask, oh, what exactly is the star in Joe Barry's defense? It's the nickel. It's just a fancier name for it. And what it is in Joe Barry's defense is a nickel corner doesn't necessarily have to play that spot. In years past here, and I think that will be the main difference personnel-wise here is in years past, you've had Chanon-Sullivan as a nickel corner. You've had Will Redmond in the slot. but here Joe Barry is going to put Darnell Savage in the slot if other teams have two tight ends. He's going to put Jair Alexander in the slot if other teams line up their number one receiver in the slot.

And that's what the Rams did last year in the playoffs. When Devonte Adams lines up in the slot, they put Jalen Ramsey in the slot and they move someone else outside. The problem is will the Packers have a good enough number three outside corner or number three safety in case Alexander or Savage go down in the slot to compensate for that? They drafted Eric Stokes in the first round. They have a couple late-round picks around drafted guys in Vernon Scott in its gains and Henry Black to throw alongside Adrian Amos in the back end. But I'm really interested to see because they're not going to play two inside linebackers a lot. You know, Mike Patton never really did.

Who are they going to put in that slot? How are they going to match up against other teams? Like when they play the Chiefs, will they put Darnell Savage in the slot because of Travis Kelsey? Or are they going to put a nickel corner there to get absolutely burned by Travis Kelsey? so they can have a safety over the top for when Tyree Kilburns by someone. It's going to be fascinating to see how they mix and match. But if anyone knows how to do it, it's Joe Barry because he's done it with the Rams. Yeah, I think we'll see a lot of that.

I think Amos said that a lot of that stuff, he's digging back into stuff he learned when he was a rookie in his first contract. I have to refresh my memory about some of this, but there is a lot of carryover. The one thing I do, I want to say, the Jalen Ramsey to Jaira Alexander comparison works. some of the stuff they did with Jalen Ramsey where they're locking him on the backside of certain coverages and really just allowing him to play man and then overloading the other side and using your resources that way.

The Packers can do that. And I think in the front, they have so many different body types and different skill sets. That is the one thing. If you look at what certain teams have been that play too high safeties, the difference between that and some of the stuff

that Rams did last year is the things they were doing with the fronts and how they were positioning guys and just making the picture a little bit less clear for offenses. And I think the packers, have the guys up front to potentially do that. So with some teams, I think this Xerox that we're going to see of the Brandon's daily defense is going to look ugly because you just don't have the guys to do it.

I think the Packers have the guys to do it. And that's why it's easy to get excited about. Yeah. What's interesting about the Packers defense is, you know, their overall numbers haven't been very good the last few years in terms of whatever stat you choose to look at, EPA, rushing yards allowed per game, whatever. They have stars. They have, you know, I think Adrian Amos is one of the most underrated

safeties in the league. I miss him dearly. In Chicago, yeah. Jiger Alexander is a top two, three corner. Kenny Clark's the highest paid nose tackle in the league. They have Zadarius and Preston Smith and Rishon Gary on the edge, but they always seem to, you know, break down in some way. That's why Joe Barry's here.

Packers haven't had a formidable inside linebacker in God knows how long since A.J. Hawke. maybe not even AJ Hawk, but they brought in Devondre Campbell, who's played with Arizona and Atlanta the past couple of years. They have Chris Barnes, an undrafted guy from UCLA last year. And really, outside of Kenny Clark on the defensive line, they don't have anyone proven, which is why they've struggled against the run. Their past defense deep in the secondary is great, but they can get picked apart on the second tier there with their inside linebackers. And they're not great at the point of attack defending the rush because their edge rushers aren't very good

defending the run and everyone besides Kenny Clark isn't great. So for all the stars that they have, Mike Patton never really got them to play as a unit. And that's what Joe Barry's main goal needs to be. The last thing I'll ask you, what is the vibe like here? I mean, what's happened over the last three weeks is just kind of-

I finally don't have to check my phone every day for what Aaron Rogers is doing. But now is it just kind of business as usual? It is the idea like, well, he's just back. So everything's back to normal. Is it that simple? That seems kind of strange that they could just turn on a dime like that. I think so. And here's why. The people he has beef with and still does, it's never going to go away are Brian Gutakunst and Mark Murphy. We never has to interact with. And Rogers never has to interact with them. He loves his teammates. He loves the coaching staff. And I know that for a fact. Like he has no,

no issues with them. Everyone here knows that with Aaron Rogers in the building. They can in a Super Bowl or at least contend for one. And everything else goes out the window when he comes back. Do you think, you know, Alan Lazard, who's going to be an important part to this offense, cares about what Aaron Rogers and Brian Gutakun's relationship is? No. That's a great point. So if you take him as what he sees as what everyone else sees, I think it's just back to normal.

You know, sure, Goody and Mark Murphy are out there at practice every day. but when it comes down to getting the job done going out there and winning, it's the players and the coaching staff. And sure, maybe Brian Gutakunz will involve Aaron Rogers and a couple more personnel decisions as the Jameson Crowder trade. The Jameson Crowder trade, the, you know, trading for or signing Clay Matthews, which obviously was a joke.

I think everyone's on the same page. And the vibe around here, I don't even know if it's a last dance kind of vibe. Because as Aaron Rogers said today, he said he doesn't want a farewell tour he doesn't know what's going to happen after this season. I think that's real and that's genuine in that nobody wants to think about what happens after this

because all they think about now is we've crapped the bed in the last two NFC championship games. This might be our last chance to get that far in the near future so we can't let that happen again. And I think it's a lot of buying in right now and there's no reason to believe they can't get further than that this year.

All right. That's all I got. Good stuff. Good to talk to you, buddy. always appreciate the time. Hopefully it's a little bit cooler tomorrow. I think I may see you early next week again because this place is close to my house. So it's tempting to come back up here

while enough else is going on. Got to see a real quarterback unlike Justin Fields. No, see. That's just horrible. I can't wait for Justin Fields to not practice when I'm at Bears Camp tomorrow. It's going to be the best. All right, thanks, bud.

All right, guys, that's all we got today. Thank you so much to Lindsay. Thank you to Jake. Thank you to Matt. Jam-packed show. I'm sorry about that. But we're trying to get everything we can in before the season kicks.

off here. We will be back tomorrow with Nate and with our Bears writer Adam Johns. I'm trying to keep all of this straight. A little bit later in the week, we're going to talk to Andy Staples, and then we're going to have our Giants writer Dan Duggan and our Vikings writer Chad Graf on. And that's it. That is August for you guys. And then we are starting our division previews next Tuesday. We're going to start it off the same way we did with Nate and the NFC North, and we are going to roll out all eight over the next couple weeks. Have some fun announcements coming as well. Hopefully later today, maybe tomorrow,

about what this season is going to look like on the Athletic Football Show. So I'm very excited to share that with you guys. For now, though, please rate interview the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I would sincerely appreciate that. You guys have been doing a pretty good job with that, but I would love if you can keep it up. Also, please subscribe to the athletic. just an endless amount of good stuff.

The amount of preview work that Sheel is doing, it's so good. He had his 25, I think, things to know, 25 little nuggets to know about the NFL season ran earlier this week. You have to check that out. All of the work that our team writers are doing. Again, if you're ramping up for your fantasy draft, so many little kernels of wisdom from our team writers constantly being dropped into their coverage. So I highly recommend you check that out, theathletic.com, slash football show. We'll be back tomorrow with Nate. Until then, appreciate you guys listening.

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