The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - NFL team tiers check-in with Mike Sando

Episode Date: October 5, 2022

We've played one-quarter of the 2022 NFL season. What better time to plant some flags and make some tiers. Robert Mays and Mike Sando do just that on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. The guys break all 32 teams into tiers, from Super Bowl Favorites to the Shadow Realm.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube1:00 Contenders!5:30 Contenders?12:45 Lightning in a bottle25:00 Frisky upstarts35:10 What's the plan here?37:30 This isn't the plan!40:55 The Shadow Realm Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome, the athletic football show. Today's Wednesday, October 5th. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, the athletic zone, Mike Sando. Mike, how you doing? I am doing great. Thanks for having me on.

This was one we hadn't had scheduled, so it's good. Quick little pivot this week. Sometimes that happens. People are busy. People have schedules. There's a lot going on. And we were sitting there yesterday thinking about what we wanted to talk about today. Yeah.

We want to lean into the weirdness that has transpired over the first month of the season. I think a lot of people have been asking, do we know who's good? Are there any teams that are good? How many teams are good? How many teams are bad? How many teams are in the middle? Where are we?

What does the landscape of the league currently look like? And that's what we're going to do today. Just want to throw it out there? This is four games into the season. There's a chance this looks very different four weeks from now. Very, very different, 12 weeks from now. But we are going to do some team tiers. a month into the season.

And I'm excited to dig into this because there is a lot to chew on. There are very few answers, very many questions. I want to lay out how we did this. So we didn't talk about what the tiers were going to be beforehand, which was probably a mistake. We each came to our own independent tiers before kind of combining them. So you guys will see how this is laid out. Our first four or so categories are going to be the same.

We have the bona fide contenders. I call them the elite teams, contenders with question marks. Lightning and a bottle teams is third. I had those as the playoff teams, sort of. You called them Lightning and the bottle teams, which I liked. You had the frisky upstart teams next. I called those the intriguing team. The FUs.

I called those the intriguing teams I do not understand. And then we have a few other categories that we're getting to at the bottom. But the general skeleton of how we're going to rank these teams, bucket these teams is pretty similar. So let's start at the top. True contenders, elite teams in the NFL. How many do you have and which ones are they? I did Buffalo in Kansas City, and actually I would put Kansas City first. I think on my little sheet here, I have Buffalo, maybe alphabetically.

But I put Kansas City first. I think they're the champ. You've got to knock them out. They've shown enough this year that I'm really kind of excited about where they're going to go. Remember in recently they've been like crap on defense or just, you know, they had the one special teams meltdown game against Indie, but I think that's not going to happen every week. So I like where they're at. I'd probably put them first until Buffalo shows they can knock them off in a big game. Why no Eagles?

Because I have three teams at the top. I think the Chiefs in the Bills pencil it in. Chiefs are 13th in EPA per play on defense with the way their offense is going to play over the course of the season. By the way, they're the best offense in the league again. With the way their offense is going to play over the course season, 13th is more than good enough. I still think top to bottom Buffalo might be the best team. You know, the offensive line issues concern me and they're going to concern me. but even with Micah Hideout, I think when their defense gets a little bit healthier, the front that they have.

I have those two teams rock solid, write it in Penn. They are in this. But I also have the Eagles, and I think the Eagles are right there with both of those teams. So why no Philly for you? Yeah, it's just to me, I look at the wall. There's skins on the wall for the other teams, not for this team. I still in the back of my mind, they lost by 150 points when they got to playoffs last year. I don't think that would happen now. I think they would be an underdog to those teams on a neutral field. but I think there's just a little bit of a dividing line there of want to see it more, right? They have a really easy schedule and they've done a nice job, but I just, to me, it's, I agree with you. I just am not willing to elevate into this bona fide contender thing after four games.

We just need to see a little more. Yeah, I understand that. I just think the team is so different in important ways that they have guys that have reshaped what they are on offense and defense. Jay Brown being the biggest example of that. We saw what Hassan Redick is last week against Jacksonville, Jordan Davis, and the difference that he's made. I just feel like they're so different on both sides of the ball. They're top five in offense and defense by DVOA in the NFL.

They're the only team that you can say that about. We talked a little bit about this on the Sunday night show. I just think they're so nimble based on game situation, what they have to be the flexibility of their personnel, the flexibility of their coaching staff. I'm in, man. I mean, I am all the way in. I think that they are, in my opinion, a step above the rest of the teams in the NFC right now.

That was a take. I was just trying on like a new pair of pants a couple weeks ago. And now I'm just wearing them around all day. That's how I feel about my Eagles are the best team in the NFC. And you can wear pants for multiple days. As long as you're changing the underwear, you don't have to change the pants every day, I believe. So I think you're good with those pants. They look good on you.

And I've got, you know, I've got one and a half foot in that. I'm just, you know, I'm probably being a little stubborn just saying. okay. Like it, like it would shock me more if Buffalo and Kansas City tailed off at any point, you know, than it would with Philly. Although like I said, Philly was favored for the rest of their games. Their schedule is easy. And I like the fact that they came out on Jacksonville, which was kind of an FU team, my frisky upserk team. Like they were a little bit rocked and then they just took care of business. So, very nice for them. I'm not going to argue that too strongly. I just like my two champs to be

a little bit more proven to put them in that bona fide contender category that I have. All right. Contenders with question marks. We both came to this exact same framing. I had contenders with a question mark at the end. You had contenders with questions. Yeah, yeah. Who is this group for you?

You have Philly at the top of that. I think we've already discussed that. Who else is in this tier for you? I put Tampa Bay and Green Bay in there as teams that I maybe, you know, would have hoped would have been in the elite of the bona fide contender, you know, thing. And maybe they will be by the end. but they're sort of in this group on a little bit of reputation. We know how good they've been.

We know what their quarterbacks are. We know they can be good. But there's real question marks with those two. And then I put San Francisco. The bottom of that is like, I don't know if I would have, like if they would have lost last night, I don't know, you know, I probably would feel a little differently. They're a little bit more volatile in that group, but I like so much what they're doing defensively.

I trust Cal Shanahan and I trust Jimmy Grappolo for what he is with their weapons. I couldn't put him lower than that. So they were in the NFC championship game last year. And so that's kind of my next group of teams that I really like. But, you know, there could be a question or two with them. I also had Tampa Bay. I'm a little bit too. But I do think they deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point.

If they have a quarterback who's won back-to-back MVP awards, I do think their offensive line will be more settled over the course of the season. I think their passing game will get better over the course of the season as those younger guys settle in. Think about what Dobbs was in their game plan last week compared to what it was in the first couple weeks. It's going to take a while for them to figure out who they want to be, what their personnel is on that side, what their usage is going to be, all that stuff. So I do think some incremental improvements in that area are to be expected. And their defense leaves me a little bit cold at times just because we talked about this on. on Sunday night, but you watch the Niners play last night, and then I watched the Packers'

defense, and there's just a chasm between those two things, just how it feels to watch them. But they have been very good against the pass. They have enough talent on that side of the ball that I still feel like they're going to be a really good past defense over the course of this season. They're number one in success rate against the past so far this year because of the guys they have in the back end and the way that defense is structured. So I think when you combine all of that stuff, they're firmly in this category to me. Green Bay defensively, watching how limited New England was because of their situation at quarterback

and the way Bill Pelagic decided to play the game, like New England just ran on him anyway. Like Trent Brown is like burying the end and then like flexing on the film. You can see him like strutting and pointing and he does like the, I don't know what do you call that when you do the Arnold Schwarzenegger pose, you know? But he's like doing that on the film because he buried the guy so bad. They're running on third and three and it's like a really good decision on Green. So maybe that stuff gets worked out and that maybe that's not going to be the end of the world for them. But how do you be in that game when they're down to their third quarterback and Bill Belichick is playing that way? And you've got Rogers and you're like barely winning.

Yeah. And I think that again, that gets better over the course of the year. So I have them in there. I have the bucks in there. The bucks are 14th in dropback EPA right now, even with all of the offensive line issues that they've had, all over the receiver issues that they've had. You would assume that gets better as the year goes on and they get a little bit healthier. Their defense has been excellent for the most part of the season. I know they got jumped on by the chiefs last week.

I think the chiefs had a great game plan. Keep things heavy in certain situations in order to manipulate what they're trying to do, get them in base defense, run when you have it, throw when you don't. I really liked what Kansas City did. I think the Bucks defense over the course of the season will still be very good. So I had both of those teams definitively in the second tier. My third team was not the Niners. I can get to the Niners in a second.

I think I had them one tier lower. I had the Ravens in here. Yeah, I want to talk about that. And it's just because what Lamar is right now and the force that he is, I give them the same benefit of the doubt at quarterback that I'm giving those other two teams. They're first in passing DVOA. The Ravens are right now with no receivers, with Lamar just kind of making things happen on his own, which I think is remarkable.

Their fifth and dropback success rate, he's just playing at such a high level right now. and he's impacting the game in such a unique way that I just have to put them in here because I do think they'll get better in other areas. I think that there are four games in with a new defensive coordinator and a new defensive structure. I think they'll get better on that side of the ball. Ronnie Stanley will hopefully be back at some point. So I think the Ravens have been good enough so far that they've peaked my interest, and I think they'll only get better.

So I understand having them one tier lower than this, but I just felt like I had to throw them in in the same category with those other two. So my issue with them, obviously there's volatility on defense, so they're a little bit of a different team there. I don't know that they're going to get better on defense as the season goes along because we'll see with Trition and that sort of a thing. I think they have an unproven coordinator. And so I have a little bit of question there. I think when you talk about their past game, you have to really separate early downs from third down. Third down looks rough.

Watch them. Watch third down as you get into longer distances. it's not the top DVOA or passing game or the top EPA passing game. I think that's a distinction to make against teams like Green Bay and Tampa Bay. I don't know what their numbers are in third down. I know what their quarterbacks look like on third down over the course of 10 years. So that would be one thing that I think, I think the issues they have in Baltimore, which is is the defense is good and what does the passing game look like when you have to pass are still there.

So that's why I would just make that distinction. It may not matter. Maybe they could be in a higher tier. I've got them at the top of the next one, but I think that's a distinction worth pointing out because it's going to be pointed out in the playoffs. Yeah, right now he's 16th in EPA per dropback on third down. But drop back is runs.

Dropback includes runs. Them throwing the ball. It has been pretty ugly. He's 12 of 30 on third down so far this year. So I also think that their third down offense is not very well constructed. So we'll see what happens. But I just think that he's been such a down. Fair to blame him for that, but yeah, 12 or 30 on third down.

Yeah, it has not been great. So I think that he's been dynamic enough that I, again, I just, I'm tempted to throw them in here, even though I could totally understand putting them one tier lower. I starting off the next tier, the next section of teams here, which you called your lightning in a bottle teams. I kind of had them bucket as just playoff teams, but I like lightning in a bottle teams. Let's put the Niners for me at the top of that tier because I just have so many questions about the offense. And I have three teams here that I would kind of combine in the same general category with the Niners being at the top. The Niners are the best defensive football right now, in my opinion.

The way that they're playing up front, even with guys being in and out of the lineup, you know, Armstead's missed some time. Jimmy Ward hasn't even played yet this year. It just doesn't seem to matter. The clip that they play out on that side, the buttons that Domingo Ryans is pushing. I said this earlier today that Deontay and Nate. The Niners defense is my favorite thing to watch in football right now. If I could turn on one thing on my television and watch it for three and a half hours,

it would be the San Francisco 49ers playing defense. So they're in with two other teams to me. If their defense gets hot, they could really make some noise and do some damage. The other two for me are Dallas because of that, pass rush. And even beyond that, this defense is scary right now, even without some of the turnovers that they had last year. They're fourth in success rate on defense this season. They've been very good playing and play out, and they are still chaos creators with what their pass rush can be.

And my third team in this, which is, it's funny that this is the area that I think has really lifted them, and if their offense gets better, than they truly become a lightning in a bottle team, is Cincinnati. The Bengals have been in the top five in pretty much every single defensive metric.

And coming into this season, I had questions about whether they would regress what their defense would look like this year just because they didn't really do much. They brought back all those same guys, and I think when that happens, you can look at it one of two ways. The pessimistic way is to say,

stagnation could be coming here. If they didn't really give any injections of talent, do they start to drift away a little bit? Or is the continuity a positive? And you can do all of these things because these guys have played together for multiple years. And if you look at some of the shit that Lou Anirumo is doing.

The answer is number two so far. They've been able to do some wild stuff because I think they're very comfortable playing with one another, and their top five in pretty much every single metric you want to look at. Success rate against the run, success rate against the pass, all of those things, EPA, DVOA, anything.

They've been really, really good and a very fun unit to watch. So those three teams are in the same kind of category to me right now where it's like, all right, their offense figures it out, maybe we get there, but the defense to me is what is the scariest part about all of those. Yes. So the 49ers, I'm totally with you if I just looked at this.

So opposing offenses have scored 9.3 points a game against them this year. And the next team is 14 and a half. I mean, it's not like we've played 17 games, but, you know, 9.3. Like, I don't think Seattle scored an offense, and they just put up 150 points on Detroit. Yeah, Seattle's offense looks great. Yeah, I mean, didn't look so great. That's another story. They're not going to look great when they play good defenses, probably.

but they can look great and they couldn't do anything. I mean, they were horrific against the 49th, so I love that. Cincinnati, Dallas is interesting. You know, Dallas, I looked this up when I was writing my pick six column for Monday. They have not allowed 20 points

in any of their first four games. That's a first during the Jerry Jones ownership era, which is a long time since the 80s, 1989. So, you know, some of these things are who you played and all of that, but that's something. There's something going on there

and they've sort of steadied it, you know, obviously without DAC. isn't amazing to think DAC's been the one thing in Dallas that we liked and could count on. A consistent person, a consistent worker, a consistent player, a consistent producer. And now I'm like,

okay, what are the things you can bank on in Dallas? Well, certainly their defense, right? I mean, that's laughable, but it is. I feel like their defense is good. And then I'm not, like, I lost some hope for Dak in the offense last. year. And like, now it's done better than I thought with Cooper Rush in there. But like, how good can they be offensively? How good is that going to be when he comes back is something I want to

see? And I'm not as excited about it. I'm a little bit more worried about it than I should be. How about you? Well, that's kind of the difference between Dallas and Cincinnati and the Niners to me, is that Dallas and Cincinnati, if they continue to be really good defenses, it's not hard to make an argument about why their offenses can take pretty dramatic steps forward over the rest of the season. The Bengals have been awful on offense for the most part through the first four games. They have players on that side of the ball. Over time, I do think that they will be better simply because of the talent that they have.

Dallas is going to get their starting quarterback back and Michael Gallup is going to start playing again. They're going to get better, hopefully, than they've been with Cooper Rush and some of the injuries that they've been dealing with. I don't know that about the Niners. Their interior offensive line issues are concerning to me. I don't really know what to make of Jimmy at this stage. But the combination they have of the defense being just stupefyingly good in some stretches and absolutely terrifying, combined with what their stars can do on offense.

I think they're a perfect lightning in a bottle example because in the right game, when they're hot, they can absolutely burn you down. But I just don't know about the offense. So that's why they're here to me compared to being that contender with the question and sit with the way they are for you. Makes perfect sense. Makes perfect sense. I'd probably give a little bit of benefit of doubt that they were in that game last season. But the offensive line does concern me too. I mean, that is not what it was for them.

Who else is in here for you? Because I think we share a few more teams. But those are the three I had that were kind of defense first. Who else falls in this category? In the lightning and the bottle category for me. So at the top, Baltimore are the chargers, which I don't feel great about the chargers. We can talk about that a second. We could talk about that a second.

Bengles Cowboys. I put the Rams in there kind of on their own. recognizance a little bit. They won the Super Bowl, but I'm worried. I have some worries for them. Vikings, Cleveland, just, hey, you get to Sean Watson back. I think lightning in a bottle, if you're not too far in a hole, if they don't blow too many of these fourth quarters in the meantime. And then I, I know you're going to laugh. I put the Raiders down there, just because I'm not all out on them yet. I mean, I have optimism for the Josh McDaniels offense with Derek Carr and the weapons that they have. So I thought they were going to maybe be the number two team in the

AFC West, and I'm not so sure that I'm going to be wrong on that, but it hasn't come to fruition early, and you know, you could certainly prove me wrong. So, I do not have the Raiders in this category. I guess that's what I'll say. I have one a little bit further down that just this, this wasn't the plan. We were supposed to be better than this this season. And the Raiders was what I have in that category. They're one and three. They made a big splashy move to go get Devante Adams. This was not a team that was building for next year or for the future. And I think, think they could be fine, but I don't have them anywhere near the other teams in this category. The Chargers are firmly in here to me just because even with, oh man, they lost their left

tackle. They lost Joey Bosa. Justin Herbert is banged up. What are they going to look like? Holham, they're like the sixth best offense in the league throwing the ball again. Their running game is a disaster right now. I think that absolutely is a concern. But over time, I still think as long as Herbert is healthy, they're getting Keenan Allen back, even

if they're not that top, top tier offense that I hope they were going to be. I still think they're going to be good enough on that side of the ball where they're going to be a problem for most of the teams they play every single week. They are going to present issues for them, even if I think their ceiling is significantly lower than I might have thought at the beginning of the year, partially because of the way things are structured, partially because of the guys who've gotten hurt. But I think that the way that we're conceiving of these categories, they definitely belong in here to me. And the charges are going to get the Browns, the Broncos, and Seahawks next. So they got a really chance to run out there. And when you look at the poor Las Vegas Raiders who are highly over-hearted by me, they're going to play Kansas City on the road this week. I mean, they could easily be one and four going into their buy.

So we'll see what they do out of it. But, yeah, I just was maybe a little bit in between on them based on what I thought might happen before the year. We both had Minnesota in this category. I didn't really know what to do with them. I think they belong here based on the way that I've structured these. I do think that they feel close and with the right set of breaks could be fairly dangerous. But they were one of the teams that had the hardest job placing of all of these. Yeah, based on what we've seen this so far.

Like in the off season, you could have like conceived a real outlier chance that they could like somehow win that division. But don't you think that that's closer now? Like they could win the NFC North, right? Oh, absolutely. It wouldn't be a shock. It would not be a shock to me. I think if the Packers don't get significantly bad, I think we're building in some improvement for Green Bay the way that we're talking about them right now.

And if for whatever reason that improvement never comes, the Vikings absolutely could win that division. The Vikings, we talked about this with Deonti on Monday. It's just so annoying. They're going to sit there like between 9 and 11 in every offensive category for the entire year. And we're going to sit there and just go back and forth about, man, you know, are the Vikings good? Like, if they get this and that, what could the Vikings be? that they're just exactly that team

and that's why I had such a hard time with them. A couple more I wanted to get to in here. You had the Rams in here. I had the Rams and the Titans in their own separate category because I truly did not know what to do. The Rams are bad right now. If we're basing this off of the way these teams have looked over the first four weeks,

the Rams belong in a fifth or sixth tier based purely on performance. The Titans probably are down there too, but I feel bad. rushing them. So the way I bucketed them was they're kind of like the after the party teams. Like the Titans made these big moves last offseason to kind of squeeze everything they could out of that offensive infrastructure and personnel.

Now they're kind of left to pick up the pieces with Tanna Hill's contract and post-Hulio move and they have to trade A.J. Brown. I'm just like, what is happening? This was always going to be a transition year for them. So I feel bad putting them in a more dour, pessimistic category. and with the Rams I kind of do too because it's hard to shit on the Rams in the same way you're going to

with a team like the Broncos and how bad they've looked or what the Saints have looked like because they won the Super Bowl last year. Their path to this point included pushing everything into the middle to try to win a Super Bowl so I don't really want to ding them for that

but if we're talking purely on the way that they've played they belong in a lower category in my opinion. Yeah and I don't want to put them in that New England Pittsburgh one which I called can the head coach Willem hire? I forget what yours was. We'll get there. Because they have Stafford.

You know what I mean? They have some makings of something to be good, but I am concerned for them. I think they're probably a lightning in the bottle team for me. Just like, look, they could be a wild card out of the NFC West or win it, depending what happens in San Francisco. And, you know, you get your defense playing right, and maybe by then they develop a run game or something that helps out Stafford.

Who knows? So this has become sort of convoluted. We're still in like tier three, which we're calling lightning in a bottle teams. Step down from contenders with a question mark, but still I think teams that can make a lot of noise if things break the right way. I had two teams in here that you did not, and you have in your next category. Because I think both of these teams have moved beyond frisky. And with the pieces in place could be pretty dangerous. And the piece I'm thinking about is Tua getting back healthy.

I had the Jags and the dolphins in here. I think both of those teams are beyond frisky. I think the Jags are just good. I think they ran into a team in Philadelphia last week in a rainstorm that they're going to look better in pretty much any other circumstance than they looked like on Sunday. They're eighth and passing DVOA right now. They're sixth and defensive DVOA. Their fourth and dropback EPA allowed.

They're just good. They played against an Eagles team that had a really good game plan and an answer to a problem presented by the elements and what Jacksonville was last weekend that I don't think that many other teams can tap into. I think the Jags are just good. Yeah. Yep. So those two teams are at the top of my frisky upstart one where they're moving, there's some ships passing in the night here, right? Like those teams are coming up for me, whereas the Rams, Raiders, those types of teams are falling down to me. So, yep, I think we just need to see it a little more. I think Miami I would have put up there except the Tua injury,

and I think just questions about his ability to hold up over the course of a season anyway. I'm now a little bit more affirmed for me. And then I also just think of them organizationally. I love the job Mike McDaniel has done. I believe that he has validated any optimism people had for him before. He's himself. I love the way he handles things. And obviously, you can scheme it up really well. But, gosh, I mean, their owners suspended.

They're getting draft choices taken away. This whole handling of the Tua thing. There's just a lot of, there's just a lot that swirls around that team. With, on top of it, the quarterback now, not only are we not sure how, well he can play if he's healthy the whole year for a whole year. We don't know that yet. Then he's not on the field. This whole thing swirling around him. That's why I'm just holding them back a little Jacksonville. Yeah, maybe it's just another week for me, just seeing them another week. But I don't know what I dislike about them. I think they have a, I think they've got a shot. I mean, who do you like better in that division? Would you pick them to win the AFC South right now, Jacksonville?

Absolutely. Yeah, me too. We'll talk about the Colts later. I absolutely would pick them to win it. If the Colts need to get a lot better in order for me to think the Colts are the best team in that division right now, I think top to bottom, the Jags are the best team. And I don't really think it's particularly close with the way that they're my highest one. So I've got them at top of my friskeys, you've got them bottom of lightning in a bottle.

We'll see what happens with Tua. I can understand being really cautious with him. I think they should be really cautious with him. But if he can get back while they can kind of tread water, I just like the way that they're constructed offensively. I think it's expertly designed. I think the way they've wielded the team speed that they have and just everything about the construction of the offense makes sense to me. Everything plays off of each other. Everything has a counter to the counter. Everything looks the same until it doesn't. When you combine that with just the pure amount of juice that they have,

it becomes really fun. And their defense, I know that hasn't been great if you look at the down to down numbers, but it's a volatile defense. And it kind of reminds me of a diet. version of what the chiefs were a couple years ago, where they have this explosive offense and this defense that while not good down in and down out is going to be able to swing you games. And I think it's going to allow them that overall kind of complimentary version of football to go on runs in games. They're going to be this team, in my opinion, that can put up 14, 21 before you even

blink because they're going to blitz a ton, they're going to play a ton of man coverage, and they're just going to sling it at you for 4.4. four quarters because of the guys they have on the outside. So that, that makes them dangerous to me. I think it makes them volatile, but I think it makes them dangerous. Like they have some dials they can turn here as needed, right, to do some different things within a game. So, yeah, I think that's good. You actually had Miami Injectivial at the top of your lightning and a balded division. Is that correct? Yeah, I just, those were not really ordered in any sort of way. I just, I just, I put them in there when I was calling them in the playoff team. So, but I think they're firmly in there to me. And I also

had it ordered a little bit differently. Like, I had the, of Niners, Cowboys, and Bengals, like as the defense first lightning in a bottle teams. And then the other ones were a little bit of a different category. So let's get to our next one here. You had, you're calling these the frisky upstarts. You had Miami and Jacksonville in there. But then you had three other teams in your frisky upstart tier, which is kind of tier four. You had Atlanta, the Lions, and the Seahawks.

I pretty much had this exact same tier, except I called it the intriguing teams I do not understand. Lions, Falcons, Seahawks, and then I had the Browns in there, just because I didn't really know what to do with the Browns and Watson potentially returning. We can get to the Browns in a second, but let's talk about those first three teams. Lions, Falcons, Seahawks. I mean, they're just, they are, when you think about those teams right now, all three of them, warm feelings. That's what it is.

You think about it. It's like, oh, man, you know, those, they're endearing. I'm into those teams. I like what they're doing right now. Yes, Atlanta, by the way, no. one was saying before the year, well, they sure upgraded by going to Mario to Mario away from Matt Ryan, but I'm not saying that Mario's been great shakes, but you can do some certain things with them. I mean, you can run in an offense. And if you want to run a ball 50

times a game, having Marcus Mario to flip the math for you is an advantage. Yes, now that Cordell Patterson being heard is an issue, but these are teams that could just totally plummet or be volatile. Like, I don't know how much higher they're going to go, but like I respect them. Like, I respect Atlanta the way they play. And you could just see like Arthur Smith, like, he's has an edge. He's got a chip on his shoulder. I like it. Detroit, obviously, Dan Campbell there offensively, Ben Johnson, are you kidding me? I mean, they're way better on offense than I thought they were going to be. I thought they'd be better, but this is like a best case scenario. And then Seattle, like, Gino Smith was the last guy in the quarterback tiers, okay?

Like everybody said he's just a backup. Now we haven't seen him play for years, and he wasn't great last year. But like, their offense has grown. He can't do the things that Russell Wilson could do, like off schedule or an amazing deep ball thrower or those things. But they are running an offense, the ball's going to tight ends. You listen to Tyler Lockett after the game. He's like, the ball is being distributed. Like, we're seeing the shade and Alderman offense. And remember when I said that to you earlier this season, I think we were on one of these podcasts. Like, we may see the Shane Waldron offense. Like, we are. And it's kind of fun. So those are, these three teams aren't playing along with what they're supposed to be. And I don't know how long

they can not play along, but it's kind of fun. Mike, all four of these teams that we're talking right now that I have in this category, the lions, the falcons, the Browns, and the Seahawks are all top 10 in offensive DVOA through four games. All four of these teams. I think that Gino has played great. I think that their offenses look really fun. Right now, if I were ranking

the job the play callers have done on offense over the first month of the season, Mike McDaniel would definitely be at or near the top of that list. But the other three of the other guys in the top five, would be in this category. It'd be Ben Johnson, Arthur Smith, and Kevin Stefansky for what they have done with the personnel that they have in those places. It's been remarkable.

So I think that there's still a step down just because they all have warts. You know, the Falcons are the smoke and mirrors offense that I think over time will eventually get exposed because they can't do enough things. The Lions defense is a train wreck. And Seattle's is too. And Seattle's is as well. And the Browns, I thought coming into the season, that the Browns would be ugly three yards in a cloud of dust on offense while

Jacoby Perciet was in there, that they would struggle to move the ball consistently and that they would have to win some ugly games where their defense played really well. You know the only two defenses in football so far that are worse by DVOA than the Cleveland Browns are the Seahawks and the Lions? Wow. It's disappointing. I mean, here they are in a close game trying to win it with their backup quarterback, and they're giving up multiple explosive plays to Atlanta, like 50-yard game.

I know they've been a little bit banged up. You know, Clowny's been hurt. Miles Garrett missed the last week, but they're 30th and run defense TVOA, which is not surprising to anybody. We had issues about that or questions about that coming into the season, and they haven't been lights out. The Packers have been the better version of this defense where they can't stop anybody on the ground, but at least their past defense has been lights out with the person that they have on the back end.

And the Browns have not been that. So the Browns defense is disappointing, even considering some of the guys that they've been missing for stretches here. Now, if they get their quarterbacks cranked up, Green Bay and Cleveland once they get that, maybe their run defense doesn't matter as much, right? You're ahead. You're scoring points. Let them run the ball, you know? Yeah. And I think run defense is the area that you'd be least concerned about when we're building a team's case for being really good over the course of the year.

But I just thought the Brown's defense would be better than this. But I think that they firmly belong here. For you, the Frisky Upstart teams, for me, just intriguing teams, I truly do not understand. I think over the long run, teams like that are probably going to run out of gas. But what they've been like over the first four games, I think they belong in this sort of tier, this sort of conversation. And sometimes over a short run, Robert, too, you're like, who you play is so instrumental. Like Seattle's offense looked amazing. Yeah, it didn't look amazing playing the 49ers.

They couldn't score. But you put them against Detroit and suddenly it's fireworks. So there's a truth somewhere in between there. It'll even out over the season. And the Broncos defense has been pretty darn good over the early part of the season. And so Seattle not lighting the world on fire in week one becomes a little bit more understandable when you look at how the Broncos defense has played over the first four weeks. Although the Broncos defense has played easier offenses too. And then last week against the Raiders, which I think is a little bit of a better offense that didn't look quite as good.

So we'll see how that plays out over the time once we get more games in there. But I think we generally agree and we enjoy these teams in this my FU frisky upstart. bucket. All right. So the next category here, we called it different things, but we had, we independently put the exact same teams in a category of their own. What did you call it? Can the head coach, Wilhelm Hire, New England and Pittsburgh? You have so much of such respect for Belichick and Tomlin, but I don't know. I don't know what excites me about these teams. What are you excited about? Mine is, the way that I bucketed is what exactly is the plan here? Yeah. What are we trying to be? What are we good at?

Where are we going? I just don't really understand either the short or long-term outlook for what both of these teams are supposed to be. They both have quarterbacks. They drafted in the middle of the first round. They drop them into offenses where it's like, okay. The Steelers offensive situation is much worse than what the Patriots are right now, which says a lot considering the Patriots offense is coordinated by some combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. So I don't know how I would feel about that if I were a Steelers fan.

but I just don't really understand what these teams are, what they want to be, what the final result is by the end of the year. I think both of them probably linger somewhere just under 500 and then we get to the offseason. It's like, all right, now what with where we are and what these quarterbacks are and the way we've spent resources? They're just confounding to me. I was thinking of it this last week.

I was like, okay, if I'm Robert Kraft, who's in his 80s now, what am I excited about with this team. You've been to the mountaintop so many times. Like, what are we, what are we? What are we? A year or two from now? What are we? And that's what you're getting at with the plan. I'm not saying they have horrific plans. I just don't know what we're reaching for here. Yeah, I feel the exact same way. And you look at it. And it's like a lot of the players in the Patriots offense are like a seven out of ten, maybe less, six out of ten. A lot of six out of tens on the Patriots offense. And that's how the team was constructed. And when you build through free agency, that's pretty much how you have to build your job. You team because the six out of tens are what's available. But where it goes from here, I just, I'm not sure. You know, Taekwon Thornton's been hurt and it's so many different things where it's made them hard to pin down. And that's how I feel about both of these teams. And the Steelers offense has been defanged because DJ Watt isn't playing.

But it just, I don't know, I'm left to kind of shaking my head and wondering with both of that. All right. Next one here, you called these, you call this the no self-awareness division. I said it was supposed to be better than this. So we, again, independent naming, but pretty much a similar group of teams. I had the Raiders here. You had them a little bit higher.

I had the Raiders here. But we've got some others that I think fall in line here with a couple of these. Right. So I think if you were going to have a poster child for someone who doesn't have the greatest self-awareness, it might be Russell Wilson just a little bit. There's kind of a disconnect sometimes he does some cringe-worthy things for being a good guy. I mean, I don't think there's anything wrong with Russell Wilson, but sometimes you're just like, dude, you're wearing your own jersey on this thing, or you're warming up in a game you're not going to play for the cameras, right? That's Denver.

Like, Denver leaned into Russell Wilson's here. Wow, we're so excited. Shoot, they haven't done anything right. You know, their defense has been fine. Okay, but like the game management stuff, Wilson himself, the offense. So they're sort of this team that no self-awareness means, like, these teams, for me, I had Denver. Tennessee, New Orleans, Arizona, Indy. Like, they acted like

they're close or they act like they're something, but then everyone else kind of sees them in a different way. And maybe they can prove us wrong, like Tennessee has many times in the past, but like we look at these teams and see teams that are, we see the glass half

empty and these teams walk around like the glass is overbrimming, you know? I had similar teams in here. I think the Broncos belong right at the top of this tier. I think they're the first team to mention. And I like that. I had the Saints number two.

Lack of self-awareness, this was not the plan. The Saints were not supposed to look like this based on how their off-season wet. So I think they're right in here. And another team that I had in here was the Jets. The Jets spent all of those resources in the off-season. It could get better over the course of the year. But their defense has not been very good. I know that they're young.

Maybe we just got ahead of ourselves with the expectations. for the sort of improvements that they could make this off this season. But I had them in this year instead of anything further down where we're playing for next year or, you know, they're rebuilding. They don't belong in those categories anymore. So I think they could get better over the course of the season. But so far, I expected them to be better than they've been, especially on defense. And then the Raiders were in here for me. Yeah, the Raiders deserve it.

Like, especially if they get rolled by the chiefs, I'll put them right there with you. Because they acted this offseason like, hey, We're close. Let's get Devante Adams. They traded a huge trade for Devante Adams and paid a 35-year-old Chandler Jones. You're right. The Raiders belong more in here. So that's just me. I'm like the scout who's staying on his college eval too long, you know, of the quarterback. I'm like, yeah. Russell Wilson is still not that good. And he's like a pro-biller after two years, right? So, yeah. So I agree with you on that. And I think there's similarities with these teams. All right. I've thought about it, and the way that we have put these teams together, I am giving the Colts probationary inclusion into this was not the plan, okay?

Or no self-awareness division. They are probationarily included in here because the next category for me, they are right on the edge here. And these are the teams that I have banished to the shadow realm and never want to hear from again. Shadow realm, okay? The Cardinals are number one. You, you, the no self-awareness division is too kind. to what the Arizona Cardinals have looked like this season.

Okay, that is not okay. You've watched more of them. I haven't gotten to them yet as much. No, it's not okay. The Cardinals belong in this bottom, bottom tier division. It's not the, it's sort of the bottom tier. To me, it's the bottom tier of my heart, even if I have one more collection teams that we're going to talk about.

The Cardinals are in this for me. Washington is definitely in here for me. It gets just, what is this? I don't explain this to me. If their offense is going to look like this after going out and purposefully getting Carson Wentz, I just let me know. And then the last one for me is the Carolina Panthers are, they almost belong in their own tier. But the shadow realm and just we're never wanting to think about these teams ever again. Those are the three that I'm currently in right now.

So you mentioned, we mentioned Andy. I think they're fun to talk about it. I'm just going to call up while we're doing this their schedule to see if they're going to get into this. The Colts are dead last in DVOA. So they've got Denver. I almost shouldn't give them the benefit of the doubt at this point. I hate the fact that I am. But for some reason, I just can't put them in the same tier with these other teams,

even though they probably should be. I was watching their fourth quarter offense in their last game that lost 24 to 17 Tennessee. And it wasn't as bad as, like they're down seven. And a drive ends on a fumble, the running back fumbles. So that wasn't like just complete bad design or Matt Ryan playing terrible. They had a couple chances there. There were times later in that game that it looked better. There was a long third down, I think completion of big play.

So, you know, it didn't look as bad as sometimes it's looked before, but I'm just, I just don't see what they're, I don't see. Here's what I see. They're not good at left tackle, which we warned about. They don't have speed on the outside. They have a bunch of big guys, but they don't have speed. And then Matt Ryan can't create anything. Everything has to be perfect.

to make it look good. And that's just too much of an ask. Their offensive line is not what it was. All right. I've changed my mind. The Colts are in the shadow realm category. They can apply for reinstatement into no self-awareness. This was not the plan in the three weeks.

They can apply for reinstatement. But for right now, they belong in the bottom category. Herbert, they're going to play at Denver, home Jacksonville, at Tennessee. I mean, do they win one of those games? they're going to win one of those games. I think they could beat Tennessee. At Tennessee, though. They haven't beat Tennessee in like 20 years.

When's the last time they beat Tennessee? Isn't it like a 10-game streak or something? They absolutely could. It's a long streak to lose these three games. They're playing badly. They're one of the worst teams in the league. They probably deserve a lot of money. Like they could rally and beat Denver has enough stuff,

especially losing Javonte Williams, horrific. And losing Randy Gregory is another big one for Denver. Obviously not for the season, but if any stretch of time, him on the other side with Chubb was, I think, a big reason. I almost think Indie wins. this week. I almost think any wins this week, but then loses the next two, but whatever. I don't, we don't love it. How about they? They belong down here. They belong down here. I'm more than willing to admit it. And then I had one more category that it's, I just don't even

want to frame this negatively. They're just rebuilding teams. And it was the giants, the bears and the Texans. I know the giants are three and one. We are going to talk about the giants, especially their offense on our weekly preview show this week. I want to dig into how they have fielded a competent NFL offense so far with the players that they have and the receivers that they're trotting out. But I still think that over the long run, these teams are rebuilding. Like we should just, we should grade them on a curve. There's also a nuanced Justin Fields conversation to be had at a certain point. But for right now, this is how I'm bucketing these three. Yeah. No, I can get you on that. I don't, I don't want to talk a lot about those teams right now.

We're good to put it right there. All right. For different reasons, you know. All right. I feel good about this. I'm sure we won't regret any of these conversations like three weeks from now. We're learning. Look, we're not declaring, we're learning. We're just taking the evidence, mixing it with what we already thought, and getting smarter. Like you properly corrected me on the Raiders. I mean, that is ridiculous that they had that high.

So, you know, they belong in that no self-awareness group for me. This wasn't the plan team. And we'll re-obsess if they beat Kansas City. So there you go. There are so many teams in here. I'm just like, I just don't know what to do. The Vikings, the Browns, like, I just, those are the two, it's like, I just don't know.

Like, I feel like they could be pretty good with the right sort of breaks, but I'm just not sure. This is a difficult thing. And the Ravens. I think the Ravens are also that one. It's like, you could have put them in two or three different categories to me and I could understand the arguments for all of them. Yeah. Yep, there's some volatile variables with some of these teams that we just need to learn more and see more before we can declare more. I will say, I was, I wasn't really pessimistic about the Bengals because I picked them to win 10 games and make the playoffs.

I was pessimistic about this version of the Bengals being why they would be competitive, where their defense was excellent and they were still fingering out on offense. So I will admit being a little bit down on their defense comparatively and what they compare to what they look like right now. And the same thing goes for the Cowboys. So those are two teams that you're sitting there right now. You have them firmly in your third tier. They're firmly in my third tier.

And why they're in that tier is just not something I would have anticipated at this stage of things. I think for me the first month of the season has reminded me, that Sincey and the Rams were number four seeds that made the Super Bowl. It's a great, great point. And what happens is when you get to the Super Bowl, then you become the champion. Your plan worked were there. But you were still the fourth seed. These were not, you know, teams.

Shoot, last year before the year, we would have had Cincinnati as a possible bottom five team in the AFC. Depending, you know, the world was coming back, all of that. So I think that's just a little bit of a reminder on that, that, hey, the final end of season results don't define you now. You still were a four seed. You still had question marks. knew the Bengals' offensive line. They addressed it, but we weren't convinced they upgraded it. Maybe it gets better over the course of the year, but they have a lot to still prove there, even though they made the Super Bowl. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. And that's kind of what I felt

like yesterday watching the Rams, it's like, oh, yeah, they, it's not that they got lucky or stumbled into anything, but they weren't this no doubt about it, best team in the league last season when they won the Super Bowl. If they had a couple of things kind of fall together at the end, whether it was the Von Miller trade or the way their offense played after a pretty foul period for a long stretch about two-thirds of the way through the season. And then they got hot and figured it out at the right time and they won a Super Bowl. And now they're kind of left being this team that has living with the decisions that they made in order to help win that Super Bowl. And I guess none of this should be as surprising as it might seem at first glance. I know. As they get into, you know,

running formations with their light personnel, I'm just like, I don't know. You know, receiver type guys in the back. The fundamentals there are not what they were when they were really good. Certainly that offensive line is a concern and we'll see. All right. That is all we got. Mike Sando, thank you very much for doing this with me.

I really appreciate you hopping on on short notice. Always a good time to chat with you, my friend. Tell people about where else they can listen to you on this feed. Absolutely. Randy Mueller and I have the Football GM podcast that has come onto this feed this year. We record on Friday mornings. usually up by Friday afternoon, certainly for Saturday.

Appreciate everyone listening there. You can find me, of course, on Twitter at Sando NFL and at the Athletic. All right, guys, thank you so much for listening. We will be back tomorrow with me and Jeff Howe from The Athletic doing our normal Thursday show. Very excited about that. Thursday afternoon, 3.30 p.m. Eastern, 2.30 p.m. central time, which is where I exist. We'll be doing our Thursday preview show with me, Nate Tice, DeAte Lee. It's a weird week.

It's a very weird week. We're going to talk about a lot of weird shit. You guys should absolutely come back and check it out. We do that live on YouTube every single week. So please come check that out. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I made a very transparent request yesterday for those of you who like the show to go review it on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen that has a review option. Just go do it.

It would mean a lot to me. I would sincerely appreciate it. that'd be great. Also, Thursday night on YouTube, we, for reasons that are still unknown to me, even though it was my decision, would be recapping Colts Broncos on YouTube live after the game is over. So if you want to come listen to that, we'll be doing it. I don't really know. I can't sell it any better than that, Beller.

I'm sorry about that. It doesn't really seem like not full-throated support for our own product here, but we're going to do it anyway. The Peyton Manning Bowl. There we go. Perfect. A game he has neither commentated. or is anywhere near, but that's how we can sell it. All you need to do, just mention Peyton Manning's name.

In the meantime, guys, really appreciate you guys listening. We'll be back tomorrow. We'll talk to you soon. This was The Athletic Football Show.