The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Odell Beckham Jr. signs with Rams & Cam Newton returns to Carolina with Nate Tice + Sheil Kapadia’s Week 10 picks

Episode Date: November 12, 2021

Robert Mays and Nate Tice start the show by discussing the top news in the NFL. They examine how Odell Beckham Jr. will fit into the Rams’ offense as well as the Panthers’ decision to bring back Cam Newton. Then they dive into the film and discuss whether or not the Broncos have shown the blueprint to slowing down the Cowboys. Finally, Sheil Kapadia’s lead in the picks segment dwindles as Nate looks to make a comeback. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. The athletic football show is presented by State Farm. Because like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Friday, November 12th. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today.

Shilkapati is going to be joining us a little bit later to do our weekly pick segment, which is getting tighter and tighter by the week. Before that, though, thrill to welcome. My good friend, Nate Tice, how you doing, bud? Doing well. Anything just happened? in the NFL world? Have we been able to take a breath? What a day? So for listeners of this show, on Fridays, we typically do our Friday 5 preview where we look at a unit, a team, a player,

and how it applies to that week's action. We're doing a little bit of that, but the NFL news cycle had different ideas. So the conversations we were going to have about the Colts run game, about what the Titans are doing on defense, about the Steelers' new look offense, All of that has been pushed to the back burner because there are several things that went down over the last few hours. Let's start with the O'Dell Beckham News. It's been every six hours, it seems like something different came out over the last few days, right? Yeah. There were reports about the teams that he had whittled it down to, whether it was the Packers or the Saints or the Seahawks or whoever was in that group.

And then there was a report yesterday, I believe, by Kim Jones from the NFL network, that said that he was going to be. to take his time, possibly wait through the weekend, see what the games looked like, and just not make any hasty decisions. Then today, our own Jordan Roderick, who, from the athletic, who covers the Rams unlike anybody else can, tweeted that she had heard from sources inside that building,

the Rams were involved in this conversation, which was a little bit surprising, based on the teams that we had heard, based on what the Rams needs are, what their roster looks like. They just cut to, Sean Jackson. And I just complimented Van Jefferson, of course.

I just complimented him. And then within the hour, it had happened. And Odell Beckham is now a member of the Los Angeles Rams. The rich get much, much richer. There's a lot to get into here. But just your initial reaction, first thing that came to mind when you saw that the move happened. I guess I want this.

Like, I guess this is cool. Like not, if you told me to rank which teams we're going to go after Odell, Rams are what bottom five like honestly I mean in terms of need yes absolutely need just everything and I mean I get it philosophically and all that but I mean it's exciting it's exciting I mean it's he's probably going to be in the brand of cook's role if you guys that was kind of like the best person that's been in that role in the Rams offense even in the newer newish stuff that the Rams are doing like on third down he just gives them just that yak ability that they don't have at this point in time cup and rubber just juice juice juice

That's what it is. It's just a little, just a little objection for them. Because it's, it's like, picture Brandon Cookson, those. A lot of overs, pose, glances, a lot of in-breakers. What's Odell Beckham really good at? In-breakers. So it's, that's where the matchup's going to be really nice. It also lets them, because on third down, when they do get into like the designery stuff that

Sean McBay likes, now it's just not cup iso ball. And so now they just get another option, another weapon, another variable that they can throw at units. also stuff like screens get unlocked a little bit like cup and woods were like when they get those screens they're very much like a an efficient running back like it's like hey if it was blocked up for six they're getting six and it's like okay cool first down but if it was third and four they've been four exactly on it OBJ kind of gives them that explosion like now it's 10 yards when six were only there it's 20 yards when one was there it's just that extra element more room for error they don't have to be

perfect. Everything has seen the ramps have kind of been screaming that they've been doing like just all these moves, especially on offense. It's like tired of every play having to be perfect, you know, for this off offense. And that's what good players let you do. You don't everything doesn't have to be perfect. You can run a less than optimal play and they make it right. Stafford running these concepts like they they they love these old school seven step concepts now on third down where they get empty and they chip. We've talked about a couple times. All three options are live on those routes. It's not just one ISO guy. Now when all three of those options are Robert Woods, Cooper Cup, and OBJ, who all kind of have nice synergy together. I mean, it's dangerous stuff.

It's exciting. It's just I just even, I was trying to picture it. I'm like, yeah, it's like, just picture what Brandon Cooks was doing with some of this new third down stuff and supercharge it just a little bit more. You and I were talking about this over text a couple weeks ago. And as of November 1st, so that would have been after week eight, the only quarterback in the NFL with a worse EPA per pass on throws between the nine. numbers between zero and 10 yards in the air, then Baker Mayfield was Zach Wilson.

The Browns didn't have that part of their offense. He just does not throw the ball well to that area of the field. Beckham's ability of slants, just a quick in-breaking routes. It's just an element that the rounds didn't have. And now that gets unlocked in this offense with the Rams potentially. Just an area that he can attack that he could not in Cleveland. Just one more example of how the fit there didn't make as much sense as it probably could have with the player of his caliber.

So I agree. I mean, it's just, let's just add more juice to this offense that already was the most efficient passing offense in the league heading into last week. They're going for it. There is no doubt, it's a minimum deal most likely.

Yeah. So who cares? Yeah. It's like an NBA vet men signing halfway through. That's exactly right. I mean, it's an interesting, the decision from O'Dall Beckham's perspective

is kind of fascinating because I don't know why he does this, except if he really is prioritized and winning a championship. They have a very good chance to be there at the end. If that's what's most important to him, great. But he's not going to get a ton of targets on this team like he would in New Orleans. He's not going to even be the number two option on this team like he might in Green Bay. So this just feels like the Rams are the place to be right now.

You have Jalen Ramsey that can recruit you. You have Von Miller that can give you a call. You have a 30-something young head coach who's exciting and energetic. I mean, they, when you move to LA and you build that palace of a stadium and you have a face of the franchise like Ashon McVeigh, this is what you're hoping for. You're hoping to be a place and you almost need to be a place when you've built the way that they have and you've pushed resources into future years. You're going to need a couple late career Patriots-esque signings that are like, all right, you know what I want to do? I want to go there. And that's how you can kind of finish this thing off.

And that's what this feels like. because on paper, it doesn't make more sense than some of the other destinations might, and they still made it happen. Yeah. It's, it's, I just keep thinking, so they're on this path. We all know it. They're on this path. Super Bowl or bust.

This is just widening room forever. If one of those receivers gets banged up for two weeks, it's not like they're screw and just dead in the water. They're just letting themselves just get up, just those extra couple percentage points to like when stuff doesn't go perfect. That's why it's so, we talk about winning in different ways. That's what, especially the bomb Miller stuff. Yeah, it seems kind of like a hat on a hat, like, you know, like a cherry on top of a cherry. It's really not. It never is.

Nope. You can't have enough good players. It's up to the coaches to utilize them. Well, we have a guy that can. So, all right. Let's watch it unfold because I get it. I get it from the ramps. They're just like, hey, why not?

It's, they're in a stars and scrubs. I wouldn't say scrubs, but stars and cheap players kind of method without a got a star on a cheap player deal. So, okay. I want to talk about that for a second, by the way. I want to have a somewhat larger philosophical conversation about the Rams. Because people have kept bringing up, we were on Hogan Johns this week talking about the Bears team building that. And somebody brought, well, what about the Rams? The Rams don't value draft picks.

You're talking about you want a front office that values draft picks. I was referring to who I, the type of person I would want to take over the Bears if they moved off from Ryan Pace. Framing the Rams as this team that continually just trades away all of the, of its picks is misleading. The Rams have made multiple trades that involve first round picks over the last several years, okay? One of them, the first one in that move, was to go get a quarterback, to go get Jared Gaw.

The second one was a first round pick to go get Brandon Cooks. That applies to what we're talking about here, where you're saying, I would rather have two years and then an extension, in Cook's case, of a proven player than a draft pick dice roll. that is emblematic of the Rams thought process, and they are different.

But the other two deals they've made for first round picks later were two first round picks for Jaywin Ramsey, which there are so few cornerbacks like that in the lead that are true math flippers in the way that Ramsey has been. And then the other deal they made was for a quarterback. So the deals they've made for more than one first round pick have been two quarterbacks and a corner. It's not like they're going to do this with all these sorts of players.

The Von Miller move is all in, but they've also done a really good job of stockpiling picks later on. They get compics. They try to build out the middle rounds of the draft. So I don't want to, framing the Rams is this team that doesn't value draft picks at all isn't right. And they've made these trades in very strategic ways. I think they would probably look at the Cook's trade and want it back.

But the other moves that they've made, I think they would do them over. Like not, well, the golf thing is a whole different thing. But the Ramsey trade and the Stafford trade, they would do those over again because those are the highest premium positions. Trading first round picks for a corner and a proven quarterback is not the same as trading away a future second round pick or a future third round pick for a prospect. Those are very, very different things. Yes. And it's, that's the thing you say, oh, yeah, they don't have high picks.

They still have assets. And that's what it is. They just have a different type of assets. They might just have a whole bunch of C pluses. as opposed to 1A and 1B, but they still have them. They still accumulate them and still have ways to maneuver and do all that. And I love what you're talking about, premium positions. Like, I mean, it's quarterback, corner, left tackle, pass rusher.

I mean, that's kind of what it is. It's so hard. There aren't, I wouldn't even do it for those other ones. I, two first round picks. I don't, I, even the Jalen Ramsey thing is like, I don't think that is, it's a once in a light. That to me is still a questionable process. But a corner is like maybe the only other position I would do it for based on

what he does for you in the modern game. Yes. And because if you, I mean, just, you can even just do this like simple looking at all pro teams and pro bowlers. You find corners in the first freaking round. The Rams are always competing and they're going to get picking the 20s. It's just kind of going, well, we're not going to have an avenue to get this kind of guy. This guy's available.

Okay, yes, like you said, it might be the best process. But they're getting that position that is extremely hard to find a guy, extremely hard to find a guy that's even good, much less a game changing player. And on top of that, they're just, you know, they're putting an ace with an ace with Aaron Donald. Now the Bob Miller stuff is he's like an ace minus. But it's like still, he's freaking Von Miller doing all that stuff. But it's, it makes sense to me. They're this is the path they're on and they're getting players.

It's not like they're wasting all these first round picks on a limited safety, you know, like a safety that can't cover like Jamal Adams. You know, I don't mean to like throw shade at what the sea action doing. But I mean, that's kind of the different processes. You can't clump them together. It's a different type of. Laramie Tunsell. I mean, do we see those? I mean, he's a really good player, but it's just not the same.

And I think that the Stafford Trade is even a better example of that. Like, for a quarterback, it's a different thing. It's a different consideration when we're doing it for a quarterback. Own world. Own world are getting paid. Own world of how much they're valued. Old world is just how you treat them. I've compared it.

That's the only position you can compare it to NBA players. That's the only, that's it. Because it's just a limited amount. Stars are stars. There's only a limit out of quarterbacks. That's the only spot in football that I think there's comparisons to. as far as development, as far as treating them with contracts, all that stuff. But yeah, it's just like that's the premium spot.

And they've upgraded it. I don't think they regret it at one second. No, I don't think so either. And I feel like this is them pushing all in. But it's indicative of a mindset that they have organizationally, but it's a much lower risk move than the other ones that they've made. Correct. It's important to understand.

All right. The other bit of news today that is shocking in its own right is Cam Newton resigning with the Panthers. for the rest of this season on a one-year deal. There's a lot to consider here. The first part to me, it wasn't that they signed him. First reaction, this is cool. I love this shit.

When guys go back to their old teams, like Julius Pepper is going back to Carolina. I love that. I think it's a really great way to kind of put a bow on your career and you kind of stamp the end of your relationship in that place. I enjoy it. That part makes total sense, right? they're in the wilderness quarterback-wise right now.

Donald is hurt. PJ Walker is their backup. I can understand saying Cam Newton is better than the options we have right now, even if you have questions about where Cam at is at in his career. Four and a half million dollars guaranteed for the rest of the season up to 10 million. I don't know what this franchise is doing. I don't think they know what they're doing. They try to do five different things at the same time.

Like it's just it changes daily. It feels like, doesn't it? It's just, I don't know what their vibes are, their path are. They went to Donald's stuff and they re-upping them. Like I don't know. It's like the Doug in the movie up. You've ever seen up? The goal of here.

It's a squirrel. Yes. Yes. That's what it is. I mean, that's what, but that's sometimes it's the coach. Sometimes that's the, you know, like, hey, we talk about. Oh, this feels straight from ownership. This feels straight from ownership.

That's what I'm saying. This is from the top. And that's the rest of the franchise. move on from Teddy. So we have to go get Sam Darnold. And then we have to, now that Sam Donald is hurt, we don't have a quarterback,

but we're close to the playoffs. So we have to, what about Deshawn Watson? Oh, well, we're four and four. We need a quarterback now. We can't have PJ Walker. Let's go get Cam Newton.

Cam Newton's a guy I heard of before. Let's do that. That's what it feels like. And good for Cam Newton. Like great for Cam Newton's agent. Good job. Well done. Yep.

Having this, like, oh, we're going to make a strong play here for Cam, because this can maybe save our season. and then now what do you do? Donald's making $18 million next year. He's been awful over the last month. Like bottom of the barrel quarterback play as bad or worse than he was with the Jets.

Yes. Which would you have people going like Adam Gage did nothing wrong? That's how. Yeah. That's how bad at Arnold's look. It's just I, they are all. The lines are wreck. Yes. I mean, yes.

We told me it. We knew it would be coming into the season. did. We were shocked that they played competently in the first month. We're like, wow, they're well coached. Yeah, they look how we thought they would in the summer. And, okay, and speaking with Camp, camp looked good in Camp, like in August and preseason.

They were running a lot of heavy play action stuff. And that's what I thought originally, if I were betting, I was like, oh, they're going to go with Cam to start the year. Stuff happened. And I understand maybe why they went with Mack Jones, just kind of, yeah, there's a lot, by the way. It was the right move. Giving him the reps and getting him out there,

their experience has been a positive for him. They set their path. They set their path and everything else fell in place. And that's it. So I understood why they did that. But it wasn't like Cam was shit in the bed. It wasn't like Cam was like, oh, my God, he can never play again. It was more like, hey, a team should take a chance on him if they're desperate.

That's what was my thinking after he got released. So I understand why a team would take him or pick him back up. But it's like just a lot of money. It's a lot of money for it's not. There's no long-termness to this. That's what it just doesn't feel like. It's another short-term. stop gap.

Yes. And here's the thing. It's not, they'll be fine cap-wise. You know, they don't have a ton. It's not as if they don't have any money. They have a decent amount of cap space next year.

But when you give somebody a contract like that, it's indicative of what you expect from them and what you're putting something on them. You're making a declaration by giving someone that sort of money. It's like, well, what's sort of, you really think like this is, you're paying him starter money. Like that's what he's going to be.

You just gave somebody starter money. You traded multiple picks. to go get Sam Darnold. I think on a football level, this could be okay for them. Like, their offense could be better than it's been. It probably will be better than it's been over the last month. But I think it's, again, just another indication that,

oh, boy, I mean, they are just all over the place in the way that they're approaching this. It's honestly, it feels like they change what book they're reading every single day. Like they just like, it's one day they want to go into this. Like you said, just even how they handled the Darnold Breachwater stuff just felt so just like rushed almost it was like they they were just like hey this is an answer okay get it over with get it over with get it off our check i think they wanted watson and when it didn't happen they're like and they wanted stafford and then when it neither of those happened it's like well we

need to do something and i was this thing called draft i i will thank them i hope i hope that we're looking at a decade where i'm like thank you so much like thank you so so much we are not even close to that point yet. I don't want people replaying this over and over again over the next five years. We are not even almost to that point yet. But I am truly hoping that there is a world where I just want to shake Scott Fritterer's hand every single time I see him. Well, it's kind of not to be like, I mean, it kind of is the pessimist view is that the

panthers just paid for the quarterback that got beat out by the rookie they could have drafted to, like in the back job. Yes. Mac Jones and that's the other way they're still paying Teddy Bridgewater and now they're paying Sam Darnold and now they're paying Cam Newton to replace Sam Darnold who replaced Teddy Bridgewater and now they're have to pay. Starnold still owed $18 million next year. Yep. Like this is just, you're just running around in circles. And I hope that Camplay as well.

It'd be really fun if he did. I know. This team has really interesting players. Like I want to see Christian McCaffrey in a better offense. I want to see DJ Moore back in a good offense. Their better offense, their defense is interesting. I think on a football level, this could work out. But they are just chasing their tails.

Yeah, if you told me before this year, I'm going to see Cam Newton win the Joe Brady offense. I would be like, maybe next year or something. They'll be interesting. Did Bill Bajek retire and they hired Joe? Yeah, exactly. They didn't have Josh McDaniels. Like, I don't know.

Why did they bring in Brady? Yeah, exactly. So I'm, like you just said, I'm very interested. It's not like this team's like in the doldrum. Like you said, I love CMC, DJ Moore, all these other guys. But it's weird. That's the best way to put it. All right.

So we are going to hit a couple of our Friday two points here. And we're going to do some looking back sort of at some games that happened last weekend. Because even games we reacted to on Sunday night, obviously you can't watch the back end of the defense. So there are defenses that we watched or games that we discussed a little bit that have come kind of into clear focus as we've gotten to go back and rewatch. watch them. So there are going to be a couple of examples of that today, including our first topic here. And that is, did the Broncos actually give us a blueprint for how to slow down the Cowboys? Or is this an aberration as it relates to the Cowboys season and their outlook moving forward? I wanted to dig into some of the specific things that happen in that game and whether

or not you think that's actually a rubric for how defenses should play Dallas moving forward. I don't know if you know this, but old coaches can exaggerate sometimes. But the, but I do think this is a, it's a, it is a way to quote unquote beat the Cowboys or slow them down. But it was also the Cowboys had to play like shit for this to happen. Yes. So like most things, most things in life, it's somewhere in the middle. But having said that you do have to credit what the Broncos did on Sunday because they, I mean, they are guys stepping up. Nate Hairstone, Kenny Young.

Yeah. I'm going to be completely honest with you guys. Never heard of either of those guys until this week. I know they've been in the week for a few years. I know of them. Nate Hirsten I had not heard of. I know Kenny Young just because he was on the Rams and then he got traded over there, obviously. So I know Kenny Young.

Nate Hirsten, he was number 27 in my notes until I did some research. Yeah, that's, I think I just messed up his name. Have it written down still messed up his name. I got Nate down. That was the easy part of that name. Good job by you. Yeah. We got that today.

So it's going to be a great show. We're doing that to start. But watching this defense, and it's exactly what you expect a Fangioa defense to look like. It's nothing like they didn't revolutionize anything. They just were very keen or very aware of exactly what the Cowboys like to do, and they're a very well-coached unit playing fast. And the thing was they, any time you see a skunk score, a skunk score being like a really good unit, like the Jaguar. I'm sorry, it happened at the Jaguar Stadium. So that's why I always think it's at the Saints Packers game in week one is that happens.

Sometimes it just shit happens in the NFL. And that's what that game kind of felt like. I watched it expecting to see like, wow, this Cowboys offense really looks like crap. And it was like, not really. Wrong game still look good. Like, you know, they were, they, I could, the Blake Jarwin injury is actually a little more significant than maybe I thought it would be because they can't get that hip 12 personnel stuff that they really like to do.

They're putting more on Wilson's plate, Cedric Wilson's plate. And I think he had a rough game. I think he was not just, you know, obviously the one where Nate Harrison broke it up. but he had a couple times where he's running routes into guys. Like he's the spacing wasn't great on a couple things. So I just think it's one of those things where it's the Broncos took advantage of a sloppy Cowboys passing game because I do think the Cowboys run game was still there. I still think they were doing some good things.

They do have a blemish in short yardage, which is kind of funny when you picture that Cowboys O' line. And it's like, yeah, they're not that good in short yardage. But I think it's one of those things where Denver played really fast. They had guys step up and making big plays when they needed them. And then the Cowboys missed their chance. because they had a couple. We can get into it a sec.

But they had a couple big chances that they missed. Is there anything that the Broncos did in that game that was out of character or was an adjustment or was something that you thought the Cowboys hadn't seen in substantial chunks this season that tripped them up a little bit? I think it was the, I have no idea what the numbers is, but it felt like this was the least a team blitzed them. This was the fewest amount of times that someone brought pressure to them. When I was watching this live, and again, I don't have any numbers in front of me,

but it felt like Fangio didn't bring anything until like the fifth drive, any pressure, I mean. And it was like, okay, so what do we talk about? Everybody keeps heating up DAC. Like you were saying, I remember that shocked me. I was like, why would you do that? I think Fangio was like, yeah, I'm not going to do that. I'm going to make all your receivers beat us. And you're going to have to sort it out.

I'm going to make Dak be perfect on every play. And Dak did a lot of nice things, but he also, yeah, he just missed throws. Like, like I said, it just happens. I think sometimes to this offense, they looked at the scoreboard. they saw they were down 16 nothing and then 19 nothing. They're like, we're the best offense in a week. Dax just coming back from an injury. He went by week and then missed a game.

And then now he comes back. Don't you think he's going like, I want to put 40 points on this team? Like, I'm in the MVP. Like, there's the human element of it. I think they started pressing a little bit. They're trying to run double moves to Amari Cooper. Patrick Sertan's running the route for Coup.

Like it's like, it was just one of those games where it's just like, you get tight, tight, tight. And every mistake just got kind of like exponentially looked worse. because they were big moments. They needed those third downs, those fourth downs, and they weren't getting them, and then the Broncos offense hit some plays, and that was that.

So only six blitzes on 39 dropbacks for the Cowboys. And we talked about it. Dallas had been one of the most blitz teams in the NFL over the first half of the season, which made no sense to us. So when Fangio came out and said, people haven't been playing them the right way, I thought that meant,

because people were talking about the man-match stuff that they were running. So they were running like just cover one where you're passing stuff off, which against Dallas does make sense. That was the interception that deck through where you have the corner pass off the crossing route to the safety. And then that allowed the slot corner to fall off of the crosser. So Stearns, he made the interception. Great play. Great play.

Tough to know if you're DAC, right? You expect that guy to be cleared out. It lends up to an interception. And I expected to see a bunch of that stuff. And that did happen multiple times. We'll get into a couple examples of it. But it's not as if that was the main reason that the Cowboys were struggling. And that's kind of the conclusion that I came to because there was some,

they played some man, but not a ton. So it didn't seem like it was this weird curveball that they threw at them. The one thing I will say, the guy that actually stood out the most to me when they were playing man coverage in this game is somebody you wouldn't normally think. And that was Baron Browning. Yeah. Multiple times in this. this game. And obviously, he's somebody, rookie, great physical profile. Obviously, we went to

Ohio State with somebody that you can get excited about the traits. I think there were some questions about whether he was pointing himself in the right direction often enough in college. And you watch him in that game. And he did such a good job when you're playing, and this is just the way that I saw it, they're playing a lot, cover one in some of those situations. And as that whole player in cover one, he doesn't have an assignment. He's sitting in the middle of the field. He's sitting in the middle of the field, you have to have out of your periphery, you have to pick guys up that are coming across because you're going to pass people off as the crossing routes develop, which Dallas does a great job of because their offense is conducive to success. So there's a lot of crossing

routes. There's a lot of easy throws. And multiple times in this game, he did an excellent job picking someone up, casually passing it off with the corner and taking away something from deck. He did it against Wilson on a little crosser at one point on a key third down. That happened multiple times in this game. But it's not as if the Cowboys can't play against a man coverage. I think that in this game, there were just a couple specific moments where it was tough for them. But it wasn't as if that's what the Broncos did on every single play. So I don't think that there is a blueprint. I think that it's a combination of a lot of different things. Yeah. And also it's like, I think the Cowboys are going, I think they maybe want people to

think that now. Maybe it's like it lazy and go, yeah, play man to get some. us. Please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please play man coverage against us for an entire game. But it's what happens when you see a well-coached unit running sound scheme. This is like, this is what it looks like. They, they neuter like good units. They make them frustrated. And then if the other side of the ball, their offense, the Broncos offense plays well, it makes these these units and teams do things they don't want to do. Good units, good teams want to dictate everything, whether it's a defense or an offense. The Cowboys dictate a lot. They get into 12 personnel and they pound it on you. If you go soft boxes or go light personnel, you go heavy personnel. They'll run the ball. They run quick game. They always just kind of keep you one page behind, gasping your breath. And as soon as you think you catch up with them, they run a different run at you.

And I think just the Broncos, this entire game, we're just kind of dictating everything to them. 100%. They're making them hit their. The pick is a great example. Dak had to go to number three there, which is one, awesome because he's dad because he can do that and go to number three. but they took advantage of that. Most quarterbacks get to number three, the defense is getting punished.

How many times are we talking about Stafford hitting a backside dig? Most times that happens. The Broncos took what should be an advantage for the offense and made an advantage for them. I loved your example, too, talking about them passing up stuff and the whole, the whole player passing off stuff.

The fourth and one that will, that kind of like threw it as feet. Yeah. It was weird. I don't know if it got tipped or what. It was a weird throw. That was, they ran mesh.

it was against one hole, one with a whole player. Broncos played it perfect because they were anticipating something like that. The guy, the whole player is catching the crosser, but the thing was the other guy didn't come out, Wilson came out the other side because what they're anticipating is going, well, most quarterbacks are going to go one to two there. They're not going to get all the way to the other crosser. Dak did, should have been a touchdown. But again, this was one of those cowboys making, it was a missed opportunity for them.

It went from a fourth and one, not only a conversion, probably would have been a touchdown, a walk-in touchdown turns into Broncos ball. It was just, hey, good sound scheme, making the Cowboys do hard stuff, just making DAC be perfect. And then Cowboys just didn't make plays. And that's what happens. This is a good, well-coached unit running a good scheme. This is what it looks like. And the other thing that stood out to me, and you mentioned the light boxes and how the Cowboys take advantage of that.

We're actually going to talk about that later in the show as it relates to another team. But Dallas actually is second in the NFL in EPA per play running into light boxes. The Browns are number one by like twice as much as everybody else. They never get them. So it's not that relevant. But the Cowboys, fireworks are going off every time they're like, oh, there's only one in there?

Five or six-man boxes, the Cowboys are second in the league. But when you're doing that, right, you have to tackle as a defensive back against a team that wants to run the ball when you're playing in light boxes. That was to me one of the elements of this game from Denver that stood out.

There were three plays in this game where a Broncos' defensive back made a tackle for two yards or fewer. Two of them were TFLs. One was a two-yard game. All three of those plays, one by Justin Simmons, one by Kareem Jackson, one by Kyle Fuller, all directly led to drive-ending plays for the Cowboys. There are not that many teams that have three defensive backs that want to do that.

That can even tackle, much less what to tackle. Simmons made the play on fourth and one on the first drive. That's him just taking grass. Yep. The Kareem Jackson play is him coming downhill. What do we talk about with CD Lamb all the time and why we like CD Lamb? He wants to dig out safety in those moments. He actually takes pride in being, all right, I'm a slot receiver here.

I'm digging that safety out, out of the run fit, and we're going to get a big play because of it. Jackson and Simmons on individual plays beat CD Lamb in those moments. It happened multiple times in this game because they're willing to play physical like that. And then Kyle Fuller makes a play coming off the backside. tracking somebody down on a run play. That's not going to happen with every single team. So it's just one smaller advantage where, all right, they're going to be in light boxes.

Let's run the shit at them. If you have defensive backs that are willing to tackle, you can mitigate that. So these are just so many different things that I think the Broncos are able to pile up that other teams just aren't going to be able to. So I don't really think there is. And on the other side of this,

I think there were some moments up front where Denver won in accordance with them playing well in the back end. That play we're talking about with Baron Browning passing off a crosser. That the one of the sacks was on that play. And they tried to hit a double move to Amari Cooper up the right sideline. It was a perfect play for two reasons. One, Patrick Sartan doesn't bite on the double move.

He's playing at the sticks. He's just like a rookie corner. It's second and ten. I'm going to give you that three yard outlet. I'm not doing this. And Cowboys try to make it look like sticks so much. they motion coop over. I mean, if I were a rookie quarter,

I would have been like, oh, I'm about to get a pick six right here. And he just doesn't even bite on it at all. He plays it down the field the whole time and they get a sack. Because that's where DAC was trying to go with the ball. But Draymont Jones, I think it was Cooper, the other Cooper, the edge rusher for Denver won on that play.

The play you're talking about with, on Wilson on that fourth and one, on that third and seven, Draymond Jones beats Zach Martin on a spin move and forces Dak out of the pocket. So it's just these little things. It's not a blueprint. It's guys individually winning every once in a while.

It's them being well coach. And it's the Cowboys dropping balls. Power drops a ball. Amari drops a ball on third and one. It's so many things stacked up. So going back and watching, I expected to see like, did they do something radically different? And they really didn't.

So my takeaway from this is I'm not worried about Dallas. I'm also not worried about Atlanta being able to copy. whatever sort of blueprint the Broncos put forth because there are different sort of defense. Their personnel is different. So I just. Because we know deep peace loves giving soft boxes and soft covers. That's what deep peace does all the way, right? So I, it was just something interesting to kind of go back and watch.

I'm not concerned about it. We'll say, there's one more play I wanted to talk about. The deep incompletion to CD Lamb. I tweeted it out today. went one-on-one to CD Lamb down the left side line. I think it was cover six. And they did a great show. And so he's like, all right, I got CD one-on-one with the corner.

I'm going to take it. But on the other side of it, it was a really cool play. They had, Wilson was in the slot to the same side that Lamb was on. And he ran a corner from the left side all the way over to the right. And Amari held down the safety that side. Wilson was wide open. Yep. So if they end up going to that play, it's a great quarters beater.

I mean, it was a really cool play where you sneak that backside guy on the corner. You're just not, as a defense, you're not seeing that. So I assume they're going to hit that for a big, big play here sometime soon. It's one of those. It's they can do it because they can block it. And I, but why would you do it? But I, when I was live streaming watching this game, and I was watching it going on it, I looked at that play.

I was like, they created like a double high low, medium high, but it was more like medium high, extra high on the play. And it was, I know. I think DAC on it because like all week they practice it. They practice it. And all week, he was like, I'm going to hit that post. Like, we dialed this play up. I'm going to hit the, I'm hitting the deep ball or, you know, wherever he was on.

I'm going to hit the deep ball. And I think that's what happened was that he was kind of sort of locked in on that as opposed to reading the first high low that was created before the CD high low was created. Great play. I'm glad you brought that one up. The Cooper drop was frustrating because that was like the one time the Broncos busted the coverage. Yeah. Simons.

Yep. And that's, hey, that's what happens when you skunk a team is that the one time you bust, the other team drops the ball. And it's like, oh, hey, good coverage. Hey, good job. Let's get off the field. But like you said, I completely agree with you. I wouldn't, I'd read a little bit into this in the sense that Broncos played a great game,

but I wouldn't read too much into it for the Cowboys because I saw them still run the ball well, very well. just the game script got out of hand and I just see the passing game stuff being easily fixed. I don't even know if it needs fixing. It's just more like, hey, let's take advantage of our opportunities. They just crapped out. They threw a bunch of dice and they crapped out like 15 times in a row. So it's like they lost their money on Sunday.

And I also think that getting Tyrant Smith back is big. And it's for this. It's for this reason. And it's so funny. Let's bring up that play that we just talked about. And you said this. They're comfortable running. And what the route is, it's a back.

It's a corner from the backside receiver. So if you're going to run a corner route to the. right side. Just think about this conceptually. It's usually a guy on that side of the formation. They're doing it all the way from the other side of the formation because they feel confident in their ability to block it up. There are teams that when you see a cool play, it's like, we can't do that.

That's just off the table for us. And one of the reasons that Dallas is able to take advantage of the way that DAC can process and get to his third option or his fourth option is because they can protect that long. So when you can't protect that long, when you're missing your all pro left tackle who is playing at this super super high level, it starts to seep out some of the advantage that you can create because of how your quarterback plays the game.

So if they get him back, it's not just about, oh, we have a better player there. It allows us to lean into our strengths even more. So obviously it helps to have him, but I think that's the reason. And you saw that show up a couple times in this game where Dax's got to go one to two to done or one to done more than he typically would. even if Terrence Steel's not getting whipped over there all the time, the clock is just a lot faster. Yep.

And you start to run out of advantages for an offense that typically has four or five of them against any team. Absolutely. That's, it's such a great point. I mean, there's so many times you can drop a play on the board. It looks awesome on Wednesday. And then you forget, oh, yeah, we have to protect this for four full seconds. And you're like, oh, well, well, we could just run our play action stuff and wad it up.

We have seven guys. Well, then the play's dead because we can't get all the bend. that we want. So that's, yeah, that's the chicken and the egg of like want to attack deep in finding that stuff. But it's exactly it. You think of a left tackle coming back. Your first is just like, oh, it's just when they drop back that he can seal off some really good edge player and they're going to be better in the run game. It's like, no, everything gets unlocked. You don't have to provide chip help. You don't have to, Dax clock. It's that extra half second. Just the internal clock is that extra half second. That's the trickle down. It's almost that's where the human element comes in.

Yep. It's just all those other things that just unlock because of, good players. It's fun having good players. I remember having a conversation with someone with a Colts last year. And we were talking about when those games, when Costanzo was hurt and what it did to Rivers and just how much faster he knows he has to play. Having that block of granite over there is just so important to the way that your quarterback feels, even beyond the practical time that he's getting in the pocket. So it's, it's not dominant. It's not like, oh, man, I can't wait to retrive this portion. That's going to break down. It's more. like, hey, I got old reliable over here.

Yes. I know he's going to get me across town or we're going to get through this game. That's what having a player like that is. It's like, hey, I know a little faithful of here. My F-150 is going to get me across town and it's never going to break down on me. So that's what having a good player does. It's just being reliable, consistently reliable. That's what good players are.

So our conclusion here is the Broncos did not present a plan that other defenses can simply follow to beat the Cowboys. It's going to be okay. Our next thing we wanted to hit on here, kind of based around another. big question. How does the Chiefs run game play into what their offense looks like right now? Because if we're playing out just a logical sequence of events as it relates to this Chief's team, they are seen more too high shells by a lot than any team in the NFL.

Okay? Makes sense. That is the right response to what this passing offenses looks like over the last three years. Yes. In the order of operations, as it relates to football, if teams are going to do that against you, and consistently give you white boxes. How do you get them out of light boxes? You run the ball.

You run the ball. That is how you do this. I made fun of old coaches in the last segment, but there's sometimes old coaches know what they're talking about. You need to be able to gash teams if they're going to play with you like that. Not that you need to do it all the time, but it's very helpful. It's a weapon.

It's similar to what we talk about. How many different ways can you hurt a team? And if you can do that, that's big. This Chiefs team, so far this year, has run the ball into light boxes, five or six guys, 90 times. That is the third highest mark in the league, and they are not a run-heavy team. The only teams who have done it more are Arizona, which makes all the sense of the world. And weirdly, Washington. Don't know why.

They're a little more spread than you would think. Maybe that's probably why. We'll call it that. We'll call it that. The Cardinal, but the Chiefs are third, all right? Yeah. On those plays, on runs into light boxes, they rank 23rd in the NFL and EPA per play. And that is the disconnect.

They can't make teams pay for playing them this way with the run game. And my question to you is, when you watched them last week against Green, and last week would have been the week, right? Yes. Packers were terrible. They were dead last in the league at stopping the run out of white boxes. That's what we thought the Chiefs would do. The run game still is not dominant.

They're still not able to make a Packers defense that really struggled in that area of pay. So when you're looking at this Chiefs team, what do you think the shortcomings are in their running game that doesn't allow them to just flip that switch in a way some of these other elite offenses can? And this is nothing new with what they're doing. It's just like you just alluded to. It's just defense. It's just kind of like leaned into like, oh, okay, this is how. we're going to count of this is that they run so much spread off a spread formations with kelsey not attached now i've talked about this like 20 times of the spot but the limitations of doing that

is defenses can treat you like 10 personnel like that you have four whites Kelsey's another receiver he's not blocking he's just going to block straight up we don't have to worry about him pulling we don't have to worry about split zone we don't have to worry about him leading on outside he did pull a couple times in that game and it doesn't look good it just and that's the problem right that's part of the issue here and we'll get to that in a second he's so dominant in the past game that it's like I trust me, he is one of the guys that kills my like internal like old man heart because it's just like, oh, he's so bad at blocking, but he's so good in the past game. But so it's 10 personnel how teams are treating them. They're not having an attached tight end.

And when they do have an attached tight end, they're running RPO's. Or if they go 12 personnel, they telegraph what they're doing. They hit counter a couple times and it looked pretty good. But it was like, you knew counter was coming. They had 12 personnel and they went, the home's under center. And it was just kind of like, well, you've. never passed out of this. So I think I know it's about to come.

It worked a couple times, but it's like when now that's on tape, it's going to be hard to go to as the season goes along. But why I bring the detached tight end stuff up so much is that you limit what runs you can get to. Essentially, it's inside zone, draw and GT counter if you live in that world. But if you're running all this, how the chiefs I try to do it, the game that they did it the most or the best that was against the Eagles and makes sense because what the Eagles run, they'll run the stretch inside zone.

best way I can call it, stretch zone, where it's kind of more lateral. And then you see it more in college and then runback splits up field. The problem with this, what's happening is defenses are running either two-eye fronts where the detackle is on the inside shade of the guard as opposed to the outside shade of the center or they're running their defense alignment head up. And what that does is it makes double teams really, really hard for the offensive line. And offense-aligned run blocking is all about creating as many double teams as possible.

That's why having that tight end attached right on the online scrimmage, it's an extra set of hands to create double teams. And that's why having tight ends that are blocking inside the box that that unlocks that type of stuff. But when you're creating those, when you're getting the lack of double teams, the obvious, well, it's not double teams. It has to be what? Well, it's not triple teams.

It's going to be single teams. So it's a lot of one-on-one blocks. So you have five one-on-one blocks. And it's almost like they're past blocking on run plays. It's exactly what it feels like. One guy loses. It's all screwed up. There's no room for error on what they do right now.

And it's, it's gotten to the point where it's, it's almost annoying because it's like, hey, you guys knew this. Like, you guys knew they haven't changed that much. They still run the same stuff like for the last two years now. And defenses just went, I'd rather take a four-yard gain in the run game than have Mahomes beat us over and over and over. And you can have it. It's not great.

Like they'll go, we'll take us. You can have that seven-yard game because we know you don't want to hand the ball off to Williams 12 times at a row. They just, they're bang. heading against what Andy Reed and the Chiefs Offensive staff don't want to do. And honestly, it's hilarious when they go 11 personnel and they do run like a normal run. They ran trap a couple times. Trace Smith pulled the nobody because Preston Smith of the Packers ran out in coverage because

he was like, oh, it's 11 personnel. Kelsey's right here. He's not blocking me. It's a, I swear to God, this is what happened. Preston Smith, didn't even look to, he didn't even try to get up field. He just ran into coverage because he's like, it's 11 personnel. We're good. So Kelsey, like, does the little fake block.

He pulls out. And then Trace Smith's pulling on, he's supposed to be kicking out Preston Smith. He has to pull up because he's like, where is everybody? Because the whole Packers defense thought it was past. And that's, it's actually funny, like sad, funny that the Chiefs offense doesn't get to any run game that the Packers weren't even worried about that 12 guys. Or I'm sorry, 11 guys on their defensive unit. Obviously, it's not 12. It's not the CFL.

But 11 guys under a defensive unit weren't playing pass at all or playing run at all on a first and 10 play. So that kind of speaks to how defenses are playing the Chiefs. I think the one-on-one thing, you see it all the time, where Tune is almost like setting a guy as he's run blocking. And I don't know what the solution to that is. Unless you're creating like extreme angles with pullers and gap runs, that to me is really the only, that's the concern to me when I watch them. Just someone who doesn't know exactly what he's looking at,

but just the feel of it, they just are not creating many angles in the run game. When they're not pulling people, there are no angles to be had and they're struggling to do much with double teams. something I also found really interesting more than at least two tight-ons on the field two to three tight-ons on the field into light boxes the chiefs have run 28 run plays into that in that situation this year

the only no one else in the league has more than 16 and 25 teams have less than double digits so we're thinking 9-7-4-4-3 the bills and Texans haven't done it once this entire year. The chiefs have 28 instances of it, and they're 22nd in the league in EPA per play on those plays. So even when...

Those should just be out there. You should just be crushing teams. You should be crushing teams. And they're just not. That's the ultimate advantage you can have. And they're just not. So the dolphins have 48 of them. That does not count because Gassiki is not a tight end.

The Gassiki rule. That's going to be on this however long this podcast last. That is always, that's just going to be the I fucking hate it. I hate the Dolphins screwing up all these stats because the Gissiki is just ruining it for everybody. But it's, that it really is jarring when you watch them and you just see. And I think that, you know,

the running backs obviously aren't great, but situationally, they should just be better than this. And when you think about the personnel that they have, but they're just creating so few advantages for themselves by the design of these places. It's not who they are. Nope. Right?

It's just not who they are. And I think that is, it really is important. And I remember, I've had a conversation. I've told this story on the podcast a few different times. I was talking to David Boktiari a couple years ago. And we were talking about the transition between the McCarthy area into what it was like under LaFleur. And he was telling me, we didn't really work on run blocking.

It just, it wasn't what we did. We were a past first team. That was our identity. It was all about how we were going to protect Aaron. and that was our identity as an offense. And you watch a team like that, and it reminds me in some ways of what teams are doing to the bills right now.

And the bills also are not able to take advantage of these scenarios. I think they're 18th in EPA per play running into light boxes this year. If you don't have that mindset, and it is not a part of your identity offensively, you can't just be like, well, here's the run plays. These are the light boxes. There's no switch to just turn on. It's really hard.

It is so hard to get yourself to that place when it's not how your offense is naturally built, what you emphasize. You can't just kind of put the hat on and be like, all right, it's runtime now. It's really not, that's not how it works. It looks like a team that's minoring in it and moonlighting and running the ball. That's what the chiefs look like right now. That's what the bills look like right now. And we've come from this world over the last five years where it's the run game feels

so marginalized. You know, running backs don't matter and look at yards per carry and yards per attempt and EPA numbers. And it's, and I really do feel like we're kind of coming back to this place where the game is sick of, right? Like, it's always going to be, comes all the way back around. And I wrote this in, like, 2017 when I was at the ringer. I was like, I feel like the big teams are coming back a little bit because defenses are

getting smaller. And that was before the too high stuff became the most invoked thing in the league where you're running into all of these two high shells. So now it just feels like there are so many elements of defensive football in the NFL that is encouraging teams to run the ball. And by doing this, defenses want teams to run the ball. That's what they're trying to get you to do. It is inherently less efficient.

but if you can do it, it gives you something to lean on when teams are flooding the defensive backfield with all these bodies. And the teams that can easily waver between those two styles are the teams that are going to be able to consistently kill people.

The Cowboys are second in the league in EPA per rush into light boxes this year. The Cardinals are third. The bucks are seventh. These teams that feel like we have an answer for whatever you want to do to us, us part of that answer, even if you're not running the ball 60% of the time, can you do it enough to have it be part of a recipe that makes the defense is scared?

And it just doesn't feel like the chiefs or bills can do that right now. It's you set yourself on a path in August. In training camp, off season, you kind of, you know what you're going to be a flavor and what we're going to major in. You're experimenting with some ideas. You're trying to self scout. And then in August in camp, you're kind of set your path. You're going like, this is what we're going.

good at. This is like you said, you're minoring in that. This is what we're majoring in. It's hard to switch majors. How many times are people switch majors in college? Like, I mean, that's, I mean, maybe more than most, but some more of the most others. But it's, but that's kind of what it is, is that you set yourself on this path. Hey, remember the bills week one? Zero personnel like a dozen times in week one and we're laughing our asses off about it. Yeah. Do you think that they were like, uh, this might not work as well as we thought we, it was going to. That's what happens. You get cold. water dumped on you. Sometimes it doesn't happen until week 14. Sometimes it happens in week one.

Sometimes it happens in the preseason. We're like, oh, this guy, this rookie we thought we're going to rely on actually sucks or yada, yada, yada. But I think it's just we got into a way where Cubies are better than ever. They just are. And I think defenses were like tired of just going like, oh my God, we're just getting gashed every time. Like, let's stop giving up 15 year gains. Let's give it five yard gains. I think it's just their way of winning the math game. It's fair. It makes total sense. It does. It does. And how. they did it is it's such a funny thing. It's just by, I wouldn't say playing safer, but kind of playing in a way that it's like, I don't know, they just dangled that character to offenses and

offenses, some take it and some don't. And I think the ones that, like you say going heavy, I'm always going to be fine with going heavy and playing fullbacks. I, you know, that's my badger in me. But it's, it's, it's, it's, I think offenses are now, we're going like, well, we're, okay, we lean on the motion stuff. Now I think it's mixing personalities and mixing the looks because of deep, I've mentioned this before, but if defenses want to stay consistent with what they call, then it's like we as an offense have to change up what we're doing to kind of like attack them in a different way. And that way for some teams is running the ball or finding a different run. I think the zone stuff is kind of finding some limitations now.

We've leaned in so much outside zone. Now its teams are going like, oh, shit, we got to find other runs. There's a reason Shanahan, McVeigh, LaFleur, shoot, Tennessee. They run other runs now. They're not just zone, zone, zone, zone. They're running duo, the running power, they're running trap, running counter. A lot of counter now because it's downhill. It's coming at you.

If you're going to be in these two high shells and those run plays are moving horizontally and they're unfolding slowly, you can have somebody coming from depth to fill that slowly. Yep. It doesn't have, you don't have to worry as much about what the run fit is in plays like that. But coach that was describing it to me this summer when his defense is big into, to this. It's a scratch where it's like if you feel it, go. Like that's exactly how you're playing

that. And if you can worry about all right, let's muddy this up and then go and then take it against those zone runs, it's much easier to do that. So that's why I think that beyond just bare fronts and some of the other natural

counters that defenses have shown as the zone run game has become more prominent. I think that just those downhill gap scheme run plays are a better answer to some of these lighter box looks just because they hit so much quicker. Think about some of the plays that Packers hit against the Rams last year.

Those are downhill runs. Those are not those zone runs that we think about with them sometimes. There's no toss plays involved here. Not all runs in these scenarios are created equal. So I think being able to lean into that stuff, and we're going to hammer you here, and we're going to have a play that it's not going to, we're not trying to get 20.

We're trying to get seven, But the same, we talked about this all the time. In the same way that offenses have to show patience in this world, because you have to take what's there, take what's there, take what's there. And you're playing into the nature of the people that you're playing against. Same thing with defenses. You have to be patient enough to let those runs happen. And that's difficult to do.

So it's a long, long game. We've talked about it so many different times. But I just feel like the chiefs are such a microcosm of this larger push and pull that's going on in the league right now. we're in the middle of the transition. So that's why it's so fun. It's going, okay, what's the answer going to be like that? Watching an evolution happen in real time.

Yeah. And we everyone's IDed it. And so like that's why it's so much fun to keep picking at this discussion. It's like I'm not tired of it yet because I'm just like I'm trying to figure it out. Like that's why it's, I think it's really cool. And I mean, also just think too those outside rounds. I would just want to mention this too is think it where those safety's fit in quarters. It's a lot easier for them to discern stuff coming to the outside and it kind of

cleans up where they have to fit and set the edge. Now picture duo. All right. I'm going to guess here. And then also it pops out. Derek Henry's popping out the other side. You can see the Corey Lindley block on the safety in the in the playoff game. You can see it in your mind.

Him just catching him five yards into the defensive backfield and it goes for a 60-yard game. It's the biggest run they gave up last year. So, man, it's just, it's fascinating. I can't get enough of it. It's one of those things that I hoped so desperately that it would be. relevant because of how much energy I spent on it this offseason. And the fact that we are seeing it play out all year has just been awesome. I just didn't think the counter punch would be this hard.

I think that's maybe the best way to put it is I knew there would be a counterpunch this year. I just, we talked about it. I think being you were kind of both going like, hey, it's going to be cool when more teams do this. I just didn't think it would be this extreme. I thought it would be like, hey, there's some speed bumps, but not like, weekend, week out, these good offenses just, you know, hitting a wall. And I mean, I think that's fun. I really do.

I've never been more excited for an Andy Reid buy week than I am this year because I want to see what they come out of the buy week with. I do. I want to see what they. And that's a couple more weeks I think they have until it. But I have that circled. I have a biweek circled. That's how excited I am to see this counterpunch. All right.

That's all we have there. Again, we wanted to hit something about the Titans defense and what they've been doing and Jonathan Taylor and the Colts running game. But the news took precedence today. So hopefully next week we can get to a couple of those things. Definitely topics that we want to dig into. But for now, it's time to get to this week's pick segment with Shield. Let's get to it. All right.

It's time now for this week's pick segment. I'm happy to welcome our good friend, Shukapati. How you doing, buddy? I thought I got a break. I'm just going to get into it. I thought I got a break last week. I picked the 49ers against the Cardinals. Then Kyler Murray's not playing.

DeAndre Hopkins isn't playing. I'm like, is this even fair? I don't know, but I did give the pick. out Thursday night and then they lose anyway. Come on 49ers get your act together. You're killing me. And so now Nate's totally in my head. I'm looking at my picks now and I've never done this before. My third one, I'm like, I might just scrap that and go with something else completely because I have no confidence in anything right now. So that's how I'm doing to answer your question. He's shaken to his core. It doesn't take much. I'm very mentally fragile. I want anger. No, I want anger.

I've got, no, I don't want this. This is, it's kind of funny. It's like now it's going to be like a gamesmanship thing. It's like, oh, I'm picking first, huh? We're going to be playing a game of chicken. It's like, is this my pick of the week? Is this my lukewarm lock? Like, we're going to game. So, Sheal, you got one game right, but you got your lock wrong. So you got zero points on the week. Nate got all of his right, which gives him five on the week. That means he has halved the lead that you have coming into last week. 18 and a half to 13 and a half. It's five point game. Now, this is real now. Things are heating. up. I, Nate got a pass earlier this season. He got one pass for missing his lukewarm walk

and not having to endure any sort of punishment. You get yours this week, Sheel, because I had a lot of meetings this week, and it was my brother's birthday, and I was distracted. So that is the reason that I am not bringing something down on you. Any, like, wrath is coming down your way. I was scared looking at my phone every day. All right, what's coming my way? You know, last week, I think you gave us the Campbell thing the morning up. So this morning, I'm checking. All right, what I'm going to have to do here. But I appreciate that.

You get one. So you better watch your staff. I got a surprise package in the week with a. So that's when I got the dog mask, it was like, hey, what's your address with no explanation? And then also let's check the mail and it was like, oh, I'm going to put two and two together. I guess this is for the lukewarm lock. I was kicking some stuff around like Arizona like chilies like something eating something hot. But I was just like, you know what?

It's not fully formed. I'm not going to throw it out halfway. We're just going to let it go. This week, it's fine. We're good to go. We will find another one if you screw up again, which I have no doubt that you will. So, Nate, as you alluded to, you get to kick us off this week. New spot for you.

This is a whole new world that we're opening up. What do you got for me? I'm not used to this in golf or this going first. This is not my spot. What's your golf game like? I can just imagine you being, you're so tall. It's watching you golf. I'd be interested in it.

Completely opposite what you would think because I'm so tall. I have a good short game, but I'm terrible off the T's. And so it's like I'm completely opposite what you would kind of think. But it's last year when I was like, okay, I'm playing at Roots in Vegas. My golf game got pretty good. And I was like breaking 90s consistently.

You take six months off dead. I'm back 105, 108, 108. Yeah, it's over. So next year I'm going to try to die back in. So it's worse. And people always think quarterbacks are going to be good at golf. That's the worst. I used to get invited at charity events.

And I'm like, is it a stramble? No, it's not a scramble. We play a handicap. Well, I don't have a handicap. I'll play a scramble. And then no text back. Like, that's happened a lot the last decade. But anyways, my pick.

I am going to start. Actually, the team, that was my lukewarm lock last week. This is not my lukewarm lock, though. But I'm going to go with the Patriots minus two hosting the Browns. I think both teams are ascending with the Browns getting healthier, you know, kind of really both sides of the ball. They've just locked up their offensive line. for the next decade, which, you know, cool. Shows where they're kind of prioritizing on that team.

But I also think this Patriots team, they're at home, first off, but also they are an ascending team. We've talked about a couple of weeks in a row. I really like what this defense does. They make it very, very tough on teams. I think this is a defensive unit that's, we've talked about maybe like the Ravens defense, Robert, where it's like, okay, they may be a little more matchup dependent that we would like to see.

Maybe that's how I feel. I don't want to put words in your mouth. But also it's this Patriots defense, I think, is they match up well with a lot of different styles, including the Browns run heavy style and running heavier personnel. They're fine with that. They can play big. So I think it's a good matchup for them. I think the Patriots offense, they didn't get OBJ. But I think this Patriots offense, you know, is just they're coming to around.

Mack Jones is getting more comfortable. He had a couple moments last week, which is a whole other story. But I do think that they are going to do fine against this quarter's heavies team. of the two high team that the Browns play and that they can hold up well against Clowny and Garrett for a whole game. So Patriots minus two. No Chubb too possibly, which I think is definitely something to pay attention to. And we'll see what Dierrez Johnson was good against the Broncos. I think the Patriots are a different sort of beast up front and they play a different sort of way.

So I think it's definitely something to take into account. All right, Sheila, what do you got? Well, I had to bite my tongue during that one because I was going to switch it up this week and save my lukewarm lock. until the end. But I'm on this game too. When I'm taking the other side, baby. I'm going. So we have a huge game, Nate.

I don't know. Can we meet in the middle of the country somewhere and watch this game together? I don't know. I don't know that this has happened before. You guys can come to my house. It's not halfway between. That's right. You're in the middle.

Yeah. So I'm taking the Browns plus two in this game. And does it make me, give me pause that Bill Belichick could just scheme it up against Baker. Absolutely. He could turn the ball over and all of a sudden it's Sunday afternoon and I'm going, Sheel, what in the world were you thinking? But here's the, I think the Patriots are a little overrated, overvalued right now. I look at their wins. Now their losses, they played well, right? They played the Cowboys stuff and they played the buck stuff. Four of their five wins come against Zach Wilson twice, Davis Mills, and Sam Darnold. So while I agree with what you guys are saying about them defensively,

I'm not completely sold that it's like a shutdown defense. You know, I think. I think the Browns are going to be able to move the ball on them. And I look at the Patriots offensively. I did this little exercise this week where I looked at every offensive performance this season, just every team, every game, EPA per drive, to put them into buckets. Like who, which teams have had the most great games, which have had the most, you know, worst games. The Patriots have only had one above average offensive performance all season in terms of EPA per drive,

which, you know, that's like the top 133. So that was, you know, context, like the Rams have had like six, right? So I'm not sold on this Patriots. Which game was that? Was it the, it was? It was the Jets where they scored 54 or whatever it was. Gotcha. Okay.

So they have, you know, I don't think they've been lights out. I mean, even last week, they turned it over twice in the first half. They had two punts in the first half. Second half they didn't have to do anything. Mack Jones, I think, through five passes in the entire second half. So I don't think he's been tested. So I don't need the Browns to be shut down. but can you create a couple turnovers against this offense?

I think you can. And I just kind of believe in this Browns team. I mean, I feel like they're good up front on both sides of the ball. Stephansky, I mean, there's so much talk, Shanahan McVeigh. Like, Stifansky, just every week, I feel like their offense is performing pretty well. And there are wrinkles. Now, the chub thing, again, I feel like this happens every week. I choose my game.

And then all of a sudden the guy's gone, I guess I should have known better here. But you know what? He could play. There's a chance he could play. And I'll buy some Dearness Johnson stock. I mean, one game, but the guy looked fantastic. It's a great story. So I'm putting my faith in the Cleveland Browns to go to Foxborough.

It's plus two. So you're basically saying you think they're going to win the game. And I like Cleveland this week as my lukewarm lock of the week. Browns fans. I'm with you. I'm with you, baby. I, if I had to take a side of this, I would take your side of it, she'll, simply because I,

the way that the Brown's defense played last week and them getting healthier, I think is definitely something to pay attention to because I was excited about that defense coming into the year. I talked to someone there during their by week or the short, the half by that they had after Thursday night. And they said they were doing a lot more walkthroughs defensively, getting out of the classroom because they just didn't feel like things were translating from the board. And that was some of the mistakes that you saw, especially in that Chargers game. And it wasn't one or two things. It was just like, we need to see this a little bit better. And I feel like they've locked in in a way that they had not before.

So I am excited about that unit for the rest of the year. So if I had to take one of them, it would definitely be yours. And I know, I know Maris is not on my side either. So I'm very overwhelmed. The one team she cares about. My heart's like racing. That was my most exciting like, Podke and I just had to hear you say it. And I'm like, shoot, do I come right back with it?

Or do I wait till the end? And maybe, you know, that was me. When we had the same lukewarm lock the Lions a couple weeks ago, that was me the entire time. I don't even know if I listened to you the entire time. I was just swaying left and the right. Like just I can't believe this is happening right now. It's getting too intense. All right, Nate, what do you got?

Okay, next one. Oh, weird. I'm picking the Vikings plus three and a half at the charge. You are such a parody of yourself at this point. And I know what your last pick's going to be too. It's not. The only reason I'm telling you that my only angle on this, even with what's happening off the field right now with the Vikings is charges an inability

to stop the run, especially out of base personnel. It is something that team. teams have abused time and time again. If they want to stick with the run, I think the Vikings are mandated to stick with the run if the opportunity presents itself, even if other stuff is happening. I just think that this Vikings team, even with injuries last week, they might just get a little bit deflated. All those losses do add up.

There is that human element that you do have to consider with this stuff. Like the Chargers are a team that's kind of like, you know, they got a little mouthwash, it seems like. And then the Vikings are a team that needs that mouthwash, it seems like. But charges are winning games they used to lose and the Vikings are just losing games. Vikings are being the Vikings as a person I grew up with those teams. Yeah, I know this feeling. But that is, that is, I just really do think this team is on the cusp of something.

They still are only a game out. They're in the eights, I mean, a game out of the playoffs. Like they could very much go on two, three game win streak and just turn it around. But it's, that's the thing. It's like this game, I could see honestly, I know I'm picking the Vikings here. I could also see a blowout for the Chargers, Chargers winning by. double digits, you know, just because the Vikings are just so depleted. But having said that, I am picking the Vikings because I just think that they are a good counter

defensively to what the Chargers like to do. If the Chargers aren't going to adjust them with it, they did a little bit last week, but adjusted what they're doing. The heavy on the Quick Game stuff, that's what the Vikings want you to do. And so I just think it's a matchup thing. It's plus three and a half. Getting that a little extra half point. So maybe that'll help, but school.

Yeah, I think that half point is. When I did my column, I think it was two and a half for three. I went with the Chargers. My concerns, I think you're right. They are pretty evenly matched teams. Vikings defense on the field for 98 plays last week against the Ravens. And Justin Herbert, I mean, I don't know if he even got one little beat of sweat on his eyebrow facing that eagle's defense. I mean, it certainly didn't seem very hard for him in that game.

But who knows, it might not matter. I mean, on paper, I think they're pretty evenly matched. So that half point, I think, is big because you could certainly see a field goal game. Yeah, I was on a different show and I picked it at two and a half. And I was like, ah, then I saw three and a half. I was like, okay, all right, whatever. Don't go. Listen to your heart.

Listen to your brain. Just whatever. Listen to your gut. Just whatever I listen to. This is what I'm listening to this week. There are times where I try to go against my nature when it comes to the way I interact with NFL teams. And I'm looking at the schedule for week 10.

And I see Vikings charging. I was like, ooh, Vikings Chargers. Like I wish I was less excited about it. Those two teams for whatever reason, it's just like, oh, man, I'm excited about those two teams playing each other. It just, I can't help myself. Like, for whatever reason, just those two teams, I'm excited to watch that game and be dialed into that game.

All right. Shia, what do you got? All right. I don't know if I'm making, no, I'm not making all the, taking all the same teams as last week, but I am going back to the well here with the Buffalo Bills.

You know, that was my pick last week. Turned out great. I mean, really, yeah. What was the line? Like 17 and a half? And it was,

I think it was less than that. It was 14, 14, 14 and a half, something like that. Yeah. It was not good. It did not work out well for me. So I did take a closer look, you know, during the week. And, you know, obviously the bills have some issues up front.

There's no doubt about it. But I also think that was a game where it was kind of like a lot of these teams, everything that could go wrong did go wrong for them. I mean, they're having drops. They're having penalties. They're having these turnovers. They drove into Jacksonville territory on six possessions and came out with six points. So I'm with everyone.

They need to figure some stuff out. We've seen how defenses are playing them. It wasn't really a one-week thing. But Buffalo had been blowing teams out before that game. And I look at that Jets defense against the Colts on Thursday night. I mean, they couldn't do anything. Gave up 532 yards to Indianapolis. And so I'm taking the bills minus 13.

It's a big line here. But the Jets, you know, statistically right now have the worst defense in the NFL. With a lot of these teams that people are questioning right now, I'm just going back to like, do I trust sort of the infrastructure. the quarterback, the coaching staff, and I do with Buffalo. I think in a few weeks we're going to be saying, all right, they figured some stuff out and they're fine. So big line, I don't like, I don't like, you know, taking a line that big,

but I'm going with the bills here. How worried are you about Mike White's return, his triumphant return? I'd be scared if I were you. I'd be shaking over there. Listen, I absolutely am worried about it. I would feel, yeah, I would, you know, I don't want Jets fans to get upset. I would feel much more comfortable if Zach Wilson was starting. this game because I think there's sort of less variance. I mean, he might make a couple plays

that are spectacular, but overall the bills are going to be fine. Here, I don't know. Mike White. Wasn't his last play of score? Isn't that what he got hurt on? Like what? Or am I mixing up guys right now, too. So it's like, I think he got hurt, but stayed in and yeah. And then it might have been that play. Yeah. Yeah, but he's, uh, he's coming off a high, you know, so I can he remembers that feeling too. So, you know, you might get a little Mike, Mike white pent up energy on you a couple of weeks. I would also say he's elite in terms of being the injured quarterback on the sideline who looks really frustrated that he can't come. Oh, yeah. You know, the announcers, look at this guy.

He's a competitor. And I understand it. But I thought he was really, you know, I was looking at it and really feeling for him last week. So I don't know, maybe I should change my pick. I was so deflated. I was so excited to watch that game. And then as soon as he gets hurt, it's like, well, I guess this isn't interesting anymore. Like Jonathan Taylor is going to run all over these guys.

As someone who is heavily relying on Michael. Pittman and Carson Wentz in my fantasy team last week. It's the only thing keeping me engaged. If I didn't have that, there would have been nothing drawing me to that game. If you had told me two weeks ago, you will be very excited to watch Mike White play football in a primetime game. I would have said, who's Mike White? And I would have been very confused.

And that's exactly where we were at last week, which it speaks to how weird this NFL season has been. All right. Nate, what's your third one? All right. Luke warm lock. I am going to go with the defending Super Bowl champion, the Tampa Bay. Buccaneers minus nine and a half at Washington coming off a buy.

I just don't think, I don't know this. I feel like these teams are just not even close to the same ballpark as teams. And it's a nine and a half. I've seen maybe teams that maybe are a little better if being like a little bit like the spread being larger than this. And it's bucks are coming off a buy. I think just like I don't know how to explain this. It's just like really where I'm going Tom Brady versus Heinke who I love like nine

and a half. at Washington, there's 40,000 fans there. And they, you know, like, it's, I don't know. It's, I don't know what else to say. I didn't have many notes on this. I just said it's bucks off a buy. Are we kidding? Like, are we kidding?

Like, I'm serious. Like, that's all I got for this game. It's like, have we watched this Washington defense this year? Have we watched this Tampa Bay bucks offense this year? Have we watched this Tampa Bay bucks defense? And have we watched this Washington offense? There it is. Bucks and minus nine and a half.

Luke or block of the week. It's a good one. I'm like, why didn't I pick that? It's very hard to argue with me of that. Yeah. I was about to write notes on it. I was like, I don't know how to explain it. Just be obvious.

I guess, I mean, the buck's receivers are a little dinged up, right? Antonio Brown's still hurt. That's right. Godwin's on the report. So that's something to pay attention to. How healthy is the buck's secondary? Do we know? You just didn't care.

But it didn't care. But that's. Yeah, it doesn't matter. Like, you know, they're going to go in two men. Like, all right. You know, I mean, like, I just, there's going to be, the buck's, Washington loves being a spread offense as we actually alluded to it earlier, Robert. But it's the bucks thrive against that.

It's, you know, that's what Todd Bowles likes to bring his pressure shit against. So it's kind of like, I don't know, the ones, the ways I kept trying to talk away, okay, how would Washington attack this stuff? It's like how they would, I don't see it happening. Like, I do, maybe there's going to be a couple of those plays. I do think like there's going to be a couple of awesome plays by Washington where they, they catch them. Because I do think Scott Turner is smart enough to have some of that stuff. But it's like for four quarters. It's like you're going to, you're betting on the.

bucks busting a bunch of times on defense it's going to be really really hard to go spread formation running against this bucks unit so you're going to have to throw the ball and i just dinky it's kind like it be a worse version than what the cowboys did week one that's how i see it unfolding so yeah i think taylor heinecke has it between the years quite like jack prescott is that what you're trying to tell me i i i got but i don't want to smirch our guy like he is you know that's a t a s all star man like he's up there i i think the best thing about picking the buck is they can have these huge mistakes and screw ups and they still can win by 10. You know, like they could turn it over three times and still be fine.

They could give up 250-yard touchdowns in the first half and you're thinking, shoot. And then all of a sudden, the fourth quarter comes around and they just got their foot on the guys. Like, I'm wondering why I didn't, you know, I write the column and then I go through the column this morning and I'm like, all right, which one? And I don't know why I didn't write that down. I mean, I'm an unbelievable. I'm a mess. You're in my head. That Dan Campbell coffee's in my head.

I don't know what's happening. I've gotten two of those orders since that podcast. Just half. Just one cup. Changing your life. You've seen the light. I saw your tweet. Yeah.

I was out of town for a wedding and I was doing a little coffee run. And I'll admit, when I opened up that app, I go, you know what? It wasn't bad. I was very, I'm going to save that. Like, that's going to be my when I really need it order. Yes. Like driving or something. I will crush those.

Yeah. Yeah. That won't be the last time I ordered it. I was like, I was like that feeling, I felt like death for a little bit. But then when I came out of. death. You know, I really felt good. That's why it's exciting. Sometimes you got to flirt with that line a little bit. I remember to eat more before the one on Sunday than I did on Thursday. That affected it a little bit. All right. Chill. What's your last one? All right. This is unprecedented

in the athletic football show, pick segment history. I sent a pick to Marissa earlier. I've got it here. You know what? I'm not feeling it. I'm straying from it. You are so rattled. And listen, you know when people say, like when NFL coaches say I'd listen to, to my gut. Like, no one's gut is wrong more than mine, but I don't care. That's what the segment's for. So initially, just for the listeners, I had Cowboys minus nine and a half versus the Falcons.

I thought last week was fluky. They're going to be fine. They're going to come back and hang 35 on them. But I'm going away from that. And I'm going with the team that, you know, there's been no worse team to bet on over the last two years than this team. So obviously I'm taking them. And that's the Kansas City Chiefs, okay?

At one of these weeks, I mean, one of these. weeks they're going to cover. They're going to get it together. At some point, the market's going to correct itself. Is it this week? They're only two and a half point favorites at the Raiders. Again, the Chiefs, the last two years, 10 and 18 against the spread. This year, two and seven, only Washington is worse against the spread than the Chiefs this year. But I just look at that. I can't give up on them. I can't quit them. As long as Mahomes, Tyree Kill, Travis Kelsey are healthy and they don't have like four offensive line injuries and Andy Reid is still on the sideline, I'm going to believe that one of these weeks they're going to come up with answers

and figure something out. And so this line was low enough. Like if this line was, you know, four and a half, five or something, I don't think I would be doing this. But under a field goal, I mean, are they really going to lose this game and really let their season spiral out of control? The other thing, this is good for my mental health because this is not until Sunday night, you know, so I can string me along. I can say, well, you know, it's the old gamblers thing. If I just win the night game, you know, you make it up on the night game. So really I should have made this my lock of the week.

But I'm going to go with the Chiefs minus two and a half. I think their pass rush looked like was starting to come on a little bit. I know it was against Jordan Love. But it seemed like Chris Jones had a nice game last week. Chiefs minus two and a half Sunday night. You really make it back in the second half of the Sunday night game. Trust me. That's what I'm going to start doing.

If I lose a couple more, five, nothing, I'm going to be texting you and Robert. You know, are we allowed to do like alternate game, you know? Can we do Monday night game props or player props? I actually, I swear, I swear, I switched out my, this game. I was going to go the same way with you as the chiefs for the Vikings bet for the Vikings pig. So I, I, everything you just said there, I completely concur with. I don't know if that makes you feel better or worse. But it's like one of those, it's like, something's kind of pop.

man like and it's less than a field goal it's like oh my god like we like you just said my homes is healthy okay as long as my homes is healthy okay yeah that's that's the bet basically and then i i know i see it the same way shield but that's funny i almost went this way too so almost had a double switch we did have a double switch yeah we i don't feel anything to answer your question when you said feel good i just i don't feel anything at this point yeah i mean we're at a place now where She'll has another bad week. This thing suddenly gets very, very close. Could be tied up.

I know. I know. That's a disaster scenario. I hate this reverse jinxing that's going on. I'm just like, just like to stay mom. I got excited. Now I just feel terrible again. Now I remember how I usually feel what I do this show.

It's like excitement and dread all at the same time. It's great. It's like seeing another Jurassic World sequel. All right, guys. That's all we got. Thank you very much for that. Thank you guys for listening. Really appreciate it.

Please rate interview the podcast on Apple or wherever you listen. That would mean a lot to me. Please subscribe to The Athletic, as she alluded to. He's written a bunch of times this week. You can go check out the piece he did about all the offense performances in the league. Go check out his picks column. Nate and I will be back on Sunday night, so please come check that out. Until then, please enjoy your weekend.

We'll talk to you guys soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.