The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Offseason Buy or Sell: The NFL's Middle Class

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

The next step up the Offseason Buy or Sell ladder takes us to the NFL's middle class. These are teams that oddsmakers project to be right around .500. In other words, these teams harbor realistic playoff aspirations, but there's path for all of them that leads to picking in the top 10 of the 2026 draft. This group includes the Colts, Jaguars, Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Cardinals, Bears and Dolphins. Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen make buy or sell calls on each of their offseasons on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.RundownColtsJaguarsCowboysSeahawksFalconsCardinalsBearsDolphinsHost: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mayes. Our buying or selling offseason series continues. Today with me and Derek Klessen, last week we did the teams in transition. You know, teams with the lowest over-unders, teams that were picking in the top 10. Today we're getting to the teams in the middle class. You know, teams that maybe aren't necessarily expected to make the playoffs, but also aren't expected to be at the bottoms of their divisions either.

Teams like the Colts, the Jags, the Bears, the Cardinals, the Falcons. the Falcons, you could probably make an argument or be in the next, could be in next week's group with the playoff teams, but take it up with Vegas and the overrunners. I don't know what to tell you. That's how we mostly structured these. So if you have an issue with the buckets, it is not an issue with me as an issue with the odds makers. But really enjoyed digging into this again. We're going to be hitting all 32 teams talking about all the moves they made this offseason and whether we are buying or selling those off seasons as a whole. And let's dig into the teams in the middle class with me and Derek Kla. lesson right now. All right. We are back today with our buying or selling every NFL offseason series. If you missed the first installment of this show, we did the teams in transition. That's what we were nicely calling them last week. A lot of the rebuilding teams, teams picking in the top 10. Today we are digging into the group we were calling the NFL's middle class, maybe one step down from the real kind of tried and true wild card and playoff contenders, but teams that are definitely a step up from the ones that we talked about last week.

Here to help me dig into the next eight teams on our list here. It is my co-host at the athletic football show Derek Classen. Derek, how are you doing, man? I'm doing really good. This one is, this one was more fun to prep for it because I think the last show you went in with or the last time we did this where it's all teams in transition. You go in with the same mindset. It's like, well, I'm viewing this through the lens of, are you just better than being

a team that's going to pick in the top 10 again? That's the goal. But for a lot of these teams that are a little bit more in the middle class, the stakes are a lot different, their timelines are so much different. This was a lot more fun to, I think, prepare for and actually sort out how I feel about all these teams here. Yeah, there were a few that I was pretty torn on,

and we'll get into those where I was like, I guess I'm going to buy it, but I don't necessarily feel good about it. So excited to talk about all of these. Let's kick it off with the Indianapolis Colts. Again, the way that we're divvying these up, a lot of it is just overunders in Vegas. And so these are a lot of teams that are in the seven and a half

to nine and a half sort of bucket. So again, just below what we would call pretty confident playoff teams at 10 wins. And the Colts are firmly in that range. For all of these, I'm just going to run through very quickly some of the details from this offseason for the Colts. Coaching changes Luann Arumo in as the defensive coordinator for Gus Bradley. Chris Hewitt comes over as the passing game coordinator from Baltimore. We're in the same role.

Free agency, Cam Bynam, four years, $60 million, $30 million guaranteed. Travarius Ward, three years, 54, 35, guaranteed. Daniel Jones, one year, 14 million. Drafted Tyler Warren in the first round, JT to O'Mallo in the second round from Ohio State, Justin Wally, the defensive back in the third round. And they lost Will Fries, Dio Dengbo, and Ryan Kelly in free agency. Let's get to it. Are you buying or selling the 2025 Indianapolis Colts offseason?

They're a tough one to start with because they're right in the middle where I'm like, honestly, not sure how I'd feel about it. So I went into them thinking, I think they have two goals this season. Goal number one, find out if the quarterback is good. That is, I think that's the biggest goal. And then goal number two is, I think, make the playoffs. I think with where the front office is at and where this coaching staff is at, going into year three with all of this, they probably need to prove they can get to the playoffs.

As far as goal one is concerned, I kind of like the way that they're handling this, where they actually let the center walk, which sounds bad in terms of making the offensive line words, but I think in terms of saying, hey, Anthony Richardson, this is going to be your team now you need to figure this out. I actually think that is good. They didn't need to invest in receiver. because they obviously already did that the last couple of off seasons. But they did give him a tight end who can be a little bit more of a gimmy option

in the way that Tyler Warren works as being an underneath yak guy. I think Stuyken has familiarity working with those sorts of players. And they bring in Daniel Jones behind him where it's like, hey man, if this doesn't work out, we're ready to put someone to play behind you. So I think kind of putting pedal to the metal here and being like, all right, Richardson, you need to prove it. I like how they handled that. As far as goal number two goes, where it's making the playoffs,

I have a lot more questions because I think the defense still has a lot of work to do even if I like some of the stuff. And I think Richardson is just such a we don't know yet and is leaning a little bit closer to like this timeline is taking forever that I'm just, I don't know. They're a team that I have a hard time getting a grip on. What concerns you about the defense? Like where are the holes that you're still very worried about after what they did in free agency in the draft? I'm curious about that. I still like I kind of like the rotation and projects they have at cornerbacks. too, but I still think that that is a little bit more unproven than like being a,

this is a surefire playoff caliber defense. I think what they're doing at linebacker, obviously having to replace EJ speed, they're taking a little bit of a gamble there. And then the pass rush, they've got a lot of bodies, right? A lot of guys who are solid twos. And I kind of trust Aniromo's ability to get some pressure with that, but they still don't have an ace. I mean, if you want to count Buckner in the middle, that can work, but they don't have an

ace off the edge. And even though they drafted to Amalo, they lost the O'Dangbo, which, like best case, scenario in year one is probably just a wash. So it's like I'm still a little bit uncertain and with them there. I still have hope that Latu can be that sort of guy. Right. I think that's the goal for them, right, is for him to be that sort of player after where they drafted him last year. And so I think that is possible. So if Latu can take a step and to me, what the two Amala thing was is that both Ebucam and Quittypayer hitting free agency after this year. So I think that they're just kind of restocking their edge depth over the next couple of seasons. Obviously,

they've already spent on the interior players. So the front I feel fine about, linebacker, absolutely, moving on from speed, I think this is the first time where they really haven't had somebody in the pipeline that they can just slot in whenever they lose somebody in free agency, which is notable. And the corner thing, absolutely,

they still have a question at the other outside corner spot across from Trivarious Ward. But the fact that they did something in the secondary, this off-season, there was some urgency in going, getting Ward and Bynum. I did like to see that. And we talked about this heading into it. I think Bynum is a very good player to have with Luanna-Rumbo. He's smart.

He clearly can do a lot of funky stuff back there in the way they want to based on what he did in Minnesota. So I don't mind the collection of moves at pretty much every single position. We'll see if the in-house development and succession plans along the offensive line work, but they drafted those guys last year with the idea that this might be a reality with Bordorlini and Goncalves. My biggest question here, and this is where I land, and this is why I think I'm selling it, I don't mind almost anything they did. The Daniel Jones contract and the Daniel Jones price are such a strong indicator to me

that they're very worried about Anthony Richardson that it almost fails to make the other stuff matter that much. Like it makes me so worried about what the short and long-term answer at the position is that it's hard for me to feel good about anything else they did because of that huge glaring question that still exists. and now I think is even more glaring when you go out and do something like this. That's kind of the thing is I don't really disagree with a lot of what they did. Even though I have one or two more questions left on the defense,

I don't really disagree with any of the way that they approach the off season. It's just again, if my marker for confidence that you can be a playoff team is going to be about the quarterback. And I have probably the worst handle on any quarterback situation in terms of the quality of what we're going to get next year. like the Indianapolis Colts are number one in terms of I have no idea what I'm going to get. It's hard to feel confident that this is a playoff team. And like ultimately that's what buying and selling the offseason is about.

And so it's hard for me to buy it until I know what we're getting there. Which again, the Daniel Jones contract leaves you to believe that they are at least willing to move on pretty quickly. This off season, just the set of moves that the Colts have made. And I try not to make everything about this, but it's hard not to see this sort of signal and this collection of moves. This feels like a pre-fired Chicago Bears offseason from like five or six years ago. Like the Daniel Jones thing is the Nick Folls trade of this offseason. And I just worry when you start making those sorts of moves. Like the Daniel Jones contract and the price that they got him for and feeling the need to do that is the move that a regime clinging to its last gaps, gas makes.

And that just worries me. Like let's just say they get to a place at some point this season where they feel like they need to. to play Daniel Jones to give them some sort of floor at quarterback. I think that's fair. If you look at the numbers last year, Joe Flacco had like almost a 45% passing success rate. Richardson was at like 38% which was bottom six in the league. The only guys below him last year were Desmond Ritter, Spencer Rattler, Will Levis,

Deshawn Watson and DTR. That's it. So the Daniel Jones thing is clearly a we need to make sure that we have a floor if we need to move on from Anthony Richardson. But even thinking you need that sort of option, just worries me so, so much that it's hard to see past that and to all of the other things that they did, which all in and of themselves are justifiable and defensible. And again, when you pay him, like you said, that much money, it leads me to believe that it might be like if it's week six

and they're two and four and Anthony Richardson has just been okay. Like they might pull the plug that quickly if they're paying him that much money, right? Like this isn't one of those situations where okay, we're paying them only $7 million, and we can wait until week 12, week 13, until this is truly like, all right, we've got nothing. This feels a little bit more like they paid for a guy, like, okay, if we need to immediately see if we need to save our season, we want to throw them out there,

which my belief in that is pretty limited, but I understand why they believe that, given how low the floor was for Richardson last season. So let's play this out just a little bit. Let's just say that we get to a place, maybe even a month into the season, where Richardson is not playing well, they feel like they need to salvage their season.

What is the outcome or the timeline after they put Daniel Jones in that salvages this season and this regime? Like how good would they even have to be on offense and do you think that's achievable with Daniel Jones? Because that's part of the problem here for me. I get backstopping the most important position in sports. That's fine. But if that's the case, if you're turning to Daniel Jones at any point this year,

what is the best possible outcome that you can eventually run into? I'm not sure I like it even in that scenario. Because here's the issue with Daniel Jones is he's not really an explosive player by himself. He can be in the run game every now and that, actually. But as a, as a, the general passing game is only going to be explosive if you have a, or the general offense is only going to be explosive if you have somebody doing it. His best year in New York, you had Sequequan Barkley. So he was able to be the explosive guy who would like defenses were actually scared of.

The Colts have a lot of nice skill players. I don't know if they have the one guy that's really going to lift their ceiling. So even if you can tell yourself that Daniel Jones is going to raise the floor a little bit, and we can, okay, we can RPO it a little bit, we can do some quarterback run game with him, he can throw some of these slot fades. We can kind of run back some of the old Philly offenses that Stuyken is familiar with. If you don't have a ceiling-raising skill player, then that doesn't really do the stuff that you want it to do. I think that all of the things that you just said about what the offense would be structured like,

I actually think it plays well to Daniel Jones's strengths. It does. This offense as just a supercharged version of what the 22 giants were, I actually think is a very good way of thinking about how this could go well for the Colts. Their skill position players are better. Their offensive line is better. They also have a dynamic running back. Like if we got to a place where the Colts were like the 12th best offense in the league

with Daniel Jones and this team finished like 9 and 8 or 10 and 7, I think that's probably in the upper tier of outcomes, but I can imagine it. But is that enough now when you're going to be walking into the 2026 season without a starting quarterback for this regime to get to choose who that guy is again? It's just hard for me to find a path where things turn out well for everybody if you have to turn to Daniel Jones and giving him $14 million makes that such a real possibility that I think we have to explore all the possible paths that include Daniel Jones. Well, and like you said, we're going to get to the end of the 2025 season.

And even if it's a slightly better version of what he did on that 22 Giants team, we're going to get to the end of the season, most likely and be like, we've seen him do this before. And we know this was put together with like gum and band-aids, man. Like, is this really going to be what we're going to do in 2026? And so if that doesn't accomplish anything this year, people are probably fired. And so even like you are betting that Daniel Jones is going to play a level of football that he's

never played before in order to save your job if you put him in the lineup. I just, we're probably not going to get that. If you told me right now that Anthony Richardson started, if not 17 games, let's say he got banged up. Let's say he starts 15 games. But for performance reasons, he is your starter for the entire year. And you combine that with everything else they did this offseason. I think I can pretty firmly get on board with it. It's just very hard for me to ignore the Daniel Jones side of this. And that's what's keeping me from fully buying it. That might be that that might be the simple thing. If Anthony Richardson, plays well enough to hold on to the job, that means that they are probably a playoff team,

right? Like, if he is playing well enough to hold the job, they are probably a playoff team. So that checks off both boxes for them. It's just, again, we have no idea to tell if that's what we're going to get from him at this stage. Yeah, that sort of urgency to add Daniel Jones at that price tag. It's just hard not to get distracted by that, even as you're trying to pay attention to everything else.

Stay in the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars, some big changes for the job. Jags this offseason. Liam Cohen in as the head coach, James Gladstone, and as the GM, hired Grant Udinski from Minnesota as their offensive coordinator, Anthony Campanile, from the Packers as their defensive coordinator. Did some stuff in free agency. Patrick McCary, three years, 38 million, 22 guaranteed. Jordan Lewis, the nickelback, three years 30, 20 guaranteed. Robert Haynesi, formerly of the Bucks at center, three years 21 with 14 guaranteed. Safety Eric Murray, three years, 19 and a half, 12 guaranteed one year for Diami Brown and also signed a couple of tight ends. Johnny Munt, Hunter Long, a few other depth pieces.

Traded Christian Kirk to the Texans, also lost Evan Engerman and Andre Sisko in the draft. Traded up for Travis Hunter at number two overall, gave up a second round pick in their first next year. Safety at Caleb Ransaw in the third round, offensive guard Wyatt Milam in the third round, and then Basial Tutton in the fourth round at running back. They got that pick back as part of the Hunter trade. Are you buying or selling the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars offseason? I think I'm buying it. And I don't want to go into like what is the ceiling of all this going to be two years down the line.

Liam Cohen is going to be the savior of the Jaguars. I don't want to do any of that. But for me, it's just like, did they approach the offseason in the right way? And to me, the biggest issue was we've talked about this a number of times. The offensive line was not good last year. And if you look at some of the raw pressure numbers, they actually weren't that bad. The issue is they gave up a lot of quick pressures. They were 25th in time to pressure allowed last year at 2.59 seconds.

The one team behind them was the Houston Texans, who all we did the entire offseason was talk about how bad that offensive line was. So they were a team that just, and teams did not blitz the Jaguars a lot last year. They were bottom 10 in terms of facing five and six man pressure. So teams were mostly rushing four and were able to get home. when they got home pretty quickly. And so the fact that they went out and got Band-Aids on the offensive line with guys like Hainesie and McCarrie, and you go out and get a guy like Liam Cohen who did a really good job with the screen game.

He made the run game better in Tampa Bay. All of this to me just feels like, okay, we're trying to raise the floor here around the quarterback, and we're going to hope that the quarterback is good enough and that our one incredibly explosive receiver gives us the ceiling. I think they took the right approach, and so I'm buying it. I don't mind the way they approach free agency and the positions that they chose. I think that some of the players are curious and a little bit interesting,

which we can dig into. I'll say before we even talk about the specifics, to me it's a buy because Trent Balke and the entire previous regime is going and they're at least trying to do something different. It doesn't even have to be more complicated than that. Solely as something new and a new direction for the franchise, that's enough for me to buy it.

I will say, I think you can take issue with some of the individual choices that they made. The Travis Hunter thing is very fun. There's no denying that it's very fun. It is an incredibly aggressive choice for a team that is at this stage of the team-building process. They were picking fifth this year. They were the worst team in the NFL for large swaths of last season. I think trading away a second round pick and a future of first round pick when you're at that stage, even for a player like Travis Hunter, comes with very real downside that is worth

acknowledging. In free agency, if you look at all of these signings, there aren't a lot of like, oh, yeah, that's a normal type of free agent signing. Patrick McCarrie and Robert Hainsey, the two guys they spent on to fortify their offensive line, were not day one starters for their previous teams last year. The Bucks replaced Robert Hanzi with a first round pick because they thought they needed to, and McCarrie has been a depth piece his entire career. The idea that you're going to double his previous salary at age 28 after we've kind of come to understand what he is, those are the types of contracts that don't always work out. And so I just think that's worth acknowledging.

And the same thing goes on the other side of the ball. Them signing Eric Murray and Jordan Lewis to these deals. Jordan Lewis and Eric Murray were both available for less than $3 million on one-year contracts last off-season going back to their teams. Like Eric Murray played 900 snaps for the Texans last year. in 2022 his last healthy season before that he played 118 so all of these deals are for players that aren't typically worth paying like this in free agency so even if the positions themselves i think are fine i do think you can take issue with some of the strategy and where they were seeking out help

at these spots i i definitely agree with that on the defense the the defensive signings in the secondary in particular i those are ones where i have a little bit of question marks i guess for the offensive ones on the offensive line. I'm giving Liam Cohen the benefit of the doubt that between the way that he's going to put this together again with his run game, with some of his screen game, Hainesie has familiarity with the offense because he was obviously there in Tampa Bay as the backup. There's just at least with that I can tell myself, okay, Cohen's going to be able to glue some of this together.

The defense in the secondary, it's like, I'm kind of with you. You're making bets that I don't think a lot of other teams would have made for starting caliber players that, you know, they signed a lot of like C minus level players is kind of what they were going for, which again, on the offensive line, I think can be okay. The secondary choices I have questions on. As a floor raising move along the offensive line, if that's how we're trying to bucket that and how we're trying to frame it, I think that's okay. I just think we often look at guys getting signed in free agency and just think, oh, well, that that's solved, right? Like that spot is not something left to worry about anymore. I'm just not exactly sure that's

the case. Like McCary is nice. He's flexible. He's versatile. We've seen him do so many different things. But again, both of these guys were walking into week one last year, not as starters for their teams. And I don't think they, McCarrie was fine last year, but I think he was just kind of what he's always been. And so then to double what they, he used to get paid when the Ravens retained him on his last deal, it's just worth bringing up to me. I just don't know how well these are necessarily going to age, even if they make sense. So, and honestly for the Hainesie signing and for the McCarrie signing, even if they are just replacement level starters, I think one that's probably better than what they had last year. And I think that's fine, even if it's a little expensive.

To me, their level of play is whatever. It kind of depends on how good the tackles are going to play. Because I think they are kind of taking a huge risk in really letting Walker Little be the weak one starter and going into it. Or not a risk. He's obviously played a decent amount, but you're betting that he's going to take another leap as he's the new guy. And then Anton Harrison last year in his sophomore season was not as good as he was. as a rookie and not as promising. So again, you're hoping that what Cohen is going to bring is going to piece this offensive line together.

So I think if the tackles play to their best ability, even just getting C minus play from the free agents you signed is fine. But if those free agents play at like a C minus level and then also the tackles aren't as good as you think, then I think you're going to have to start to have some problems with this offense. I think it's worth, I mean, it's worth me acknowledging after nitpicking like that. Even if these don't necessarily work out, the downside here is not that big. These aren't massive contracts.

Again, I am nitpicking a little bit, but I think it's, when I look at each of those individual moves, I think that there is sort of a through line and the types of guys they decided to pay. The last kind of roster thing I would mention, the fact that they did almost nothing along the defensive front, like almost nothing. They went signed to Manuel Agba as edge depth, but other than that, they're just rolling with the same group they had last year. That's the last roster specific thing. I feel like gives me a little bit of pause and is worth mentioning when you talk about what they did and didn't do this offseason. Right. The DB stuff, I might not have loved the players they sought after, but at least they were adding bodies there. That's something. Linebacker, I get why they didn't want to do anything more. But the front, I am very surprised they didn't do anything, especially, you know, we talked about it earlier in the offseason. They've already invested a lot on the interior. So I get why maybe they're just like, we just have too many resources there, don't need to throw anymore. But the secondary edge spots, they've got nobody meant. I mean, Emmanuel Ogba, I like him as a player, but when was the last time he felt like a true force, even as a player off the bench. So I don't know, man.

I think if either of their true edge starters goes down or if they really want to dig into a rotation, they're going to have some issues being what they want to be on defense. Yeah, I think that's true. Again, just to bring it all back, I'm buying this because of the moves that they made. And I think trusting Liam Cohen to get the most out of those offensive moves, I'm totally fine with that. I think this could absolutely work out.

I think they're just under the umbrella. of this is good that we're doing something different. I don't think we've really talked about a lot of those signings in these terms, and this is the place to do that. But overall, I'm buying it. I'm excited to watch what it looks like. I just think that how they chose to be aggressive and where they chose to spend some of their resources was curious to me.

I guess that's what I would say. That's totally fair. Let's get to the next one here. Dallas Cowboys. Brian Schottenheimer in for Mike McCarthy. Matt Iberfluse in as the defensive coordinator. A lot of moves, even if most of them are modest. Traded for George Pickens, signed Dante Fowler to a one-year deal,

Jomte Williams to a one-year deal, Miles Sanders, traded for Kenneth Murray, traded for Kite Ear Elam, signed Solomon Thomas, signed guard Robert Jones to a depth deal. In the draft, Tyler Booker in the first round, Donovan Azaraku, in the second round, Chavon Ravell in the third round. Are you buying or selling the Dallas Cowboys off-season? I'm much more interested to get to your answer,

so I'll keep it pretty short here. I don't think so because the goal to me is that they need to make the playoffs. And we've always talked about when you have CD Lamb and DAC, you're probably always closer than you think. But it's just a lot of what they did this offseason doesn't really move me there where it was either the Pickens trade or what they did at running back doesn't move me. I still think the defense has a lot of questions. So I don't know if I can really get there with the Dallas offseason. I think what they did roster wise, I'm fine with most of it. The Pickens move, you can.

kind of go back and forth about the price and how much they paid. I like that they did something. They had to do something. I think it's probably a swing worth taking. He's a talented guy even if it might come with some headaches. Even in some of the other positions, I think that the way they tried to piece things together at linebacker after losing over Sean in a way that they probably couldn't have anticipated, like Jack Sandborn for nothing is a good little stopgap option if you need it. You know, Kenneth Murray. So them piecing that together, I liked. Drafting Revell and then trading for Kaya Eelam, just in case Trevon Diggs isn't back. I think a lot of the things that they did, edge depth now with Azaraku and Fowler.

So they're most of the positions they address and how they address them, even guard. Like Tyler Booker in the first round is one thing. Robert Jones is like a good depth piece at guard. I think that that offense in Miami was not set up to get the most out of him. Like they've really fortified a lot of these spots with multiple pieces in a way that I think has given them a decent amount of depth and flexibility and insurance really up and down the roster in ways that might benefit them. I wanted someone to sign Jones as a starter.

So I agree with that. And I also, I wonder if that gives them some flexibility. Like if something weird happens at tackle, whether there's an injury, they can just kick Tyler Smith out there and then Jones can play guard. Like something like that, I think it gives them good flexibility. So the offensive line stuff is actually why they're the Cowboys. They need to always make the playoffs. When you have a quarterback like Dak, you should always be looking to make the playoffs.

But there's actually part of me that is conceiving this makeup of the Cowboys as like a transition period. You have an incredibly young offensive line that I think you're trying to weed out like, okay, who are going to be the real building blocks moving forward. They have for a long time flirted with the idea of moving on from Dak. We're trying to find whoever the next guy after Dak is going to be. And then for them to make the move of hiring Brian Schottenheimer, just getting a guy in the building, it didn't seem like they were that aggressive to like really kick up the notch for

Cowboys football. And he might be really good at the job. Who knows? But it just didn't seem like the search was very. expansive. And so this to me almost feels like we're in a holding period with where the Cowboys are at as a franchise. Wasn't that the case when they hired Mike McCarthy? I mean, that didn't feel any different than this. I feel like it's pretty similar. I haven't said whether I'm buying or selling this, by the way. A lot of the roster moves, I'm buying. Like,

I'm fine with what they did roster-wise. Like, this is how they're going to operate. I think especially in this free agent class, and honestly, probably the free agent class is moving forward. As the cap rises, teams are not going to let good players walk out the door. I think free agent classes are going to get worse and worse based on the current financial situation in the NFL. So the fact that the Cowboys didn't overexert themselves in free agency, I think that's defensible given their current makeup and given the players that were available. The roster is not my issue here.

I'm selling this because I don't think that you can talk yourself into their coaching search whatsoever, right? Like Brian Schottenheimer might be good, but you can't act like winning is the most important thing and that you're a serious contender when you didn't even look at anybody else to be your head coach. And this is a guy who wasn't in demand for the job. So it could work out. They could be fine. I could look like a moron at the end of all of this. But that doesn't mean that in the moment, I have to buy the way that they went about this offseason. And I think the best reasonable outcome for like if Schottenheimer is good instead of instead of the 2% outcome where he's just

randomly a hidden Sean McVeigh and we just didn't know it. But if he's just like a reasonably good coach, it still feels like the best outcome for this team is they win 10, 11 games. And because the defense isn't good enough, they get hammered by an actual NFC contender. And that's right back where we've been with the Cowboys for a decade. I just, at least since probably that 2016 team, right? That team felt like they were pretty serious. But at least, well, actually, that's almost a decade ago.

So, yeah, I mean, that just feels like that's where we'd be back with. and I just, it's not a very inspiring place for me to be. It's still better. So maybe that's, maybe I'm being pessimistic by saying that's not good enough. But it just feels like that's where we would be again. I'm just going to read my notes verbatim because I wrote them better than I'd be able to articulate it here. I said, I'm on the record with this. Brian Schenheimer might be good, but you can't act like winning is the most important thing

and then go about your coaching process and search the way they did. I think it's a solid, if not good roster and they'll likely be competitive because of that. But there continue to be too many half measures and important. areas to take this team seriously. The half measures thing is perfect. They have been betting for a long time that if we draft well enough, we will be good enough to win 11 and 12 games. And for a long time, they were.

And then those last two, three classes weren't good enough. And then you get a little bit of quarterback injuries. This is where you end up. We're in a spot where you are no longer making the playoffs. And you are a little bit in this transition period. The only spot roster was that I still think needs addressing and they really didn't do anything at that spot. the lack of heft on the interior of the defensive line is a little bit jarring to me.

Like when you look at that group and the players they brought in, I mean, their big defensive tackle move this offseason was Solomon Thomas. I'm not sure that's solving the issues that you previously had. So we'll see if maybe year three is Mazee Smith's big year, but I still think that that area of the defense is something that would worry me if I were a Cowboys fan. The pass rush might be so good that it might not matter, but that's been. a consistent enough problem for them that hasn't been fixed that I would have an eye on and if I rooted for this team.

All right, before we move on, we're going to take a quick break. I feel like we've done this in some way, shape, or form like 17 times this offseason, but we're going to do it again. The Seattle Seahawks, notable changes this offseason. Hyrieklin Kubiak is their offensive coordinator. John Benton comes along as the offensive line coach. Signed Sam Darnold, three years, $100.5 million, $52 million, guaranteed.

signed Cooper Cup, three years 45, a 17 guaranteed to Marcus Lawrence, three years 33,000, 18 million guaranteed. Extended earners Jones, three years 29, million 15 guaranteed. Geron Reed back on a small extension. Drew Locke and MVS are also aboard. Traded Geno Smith to the Raiders, traded DK Mechaff to the Steelers. Draft picks, Gray Zabel in the first round, left guard. Nick Unwarnoiri, safety in the second round, traded up to get him.

Elijah Royo, tight end in the second round. Jalen Milrow, quarterback in the third round, Tori Horton, they drafted in the fifth round as a receiver, somebody that I think most people believe was probably better than a fifth round pick. Are you buying or selling the Seattle Seahawks offseason? All right. I'm going to reiterate that I fundamentally disagree with the idea of trading away Gino Smith and tearing things down.

However, I think it is fair to the Seahawks to try to analyze their offseason through the lens of what have they done during what is clearly a rebuild. So I'm trying to get past the Geno Smith decision and just think about how are they handling the rebuild. I think for what it is, it's fine and I'm kind of buying it. There are parts that I disagree with and I don't love that I'll get to in a minute. But the stuff that I do like, if you're going to do this rebuild thing, have a million picks and address the right stuff.

And I think they did. They had a lot of picks in the draft. Why are you using rebuilds so liberally here? Is it not? I don't think you can, I don't think you're rebuilding when you have what they have on defense. They are at least retooling. they're at least reshaping the roster. Yes, let's say this.

So maybe, okay, reshaping, rebuilding is too strong. This off season is a reimagining of the Seahawks offense. Okay, there we go. It's, I can, I can, I can take that. Rebuilding is a little bit strong. It seems like you're going, you know, all the way from nothing and you're going to be a bad team. So I think that's fair. But reimagining what the Seahawks entering a new era, all of that stuff.

I'm trying to view it through that lens. And so, like I said, for the good stuff, you had a million picks. I think they had 11 this draft class. And they picked on the right stuff, right? Interior offensive line, which we made 100 jokes that John Snyder was not going to do. And then he did it. So that was good. You attack defensive back with Nick Mnwari.

You got a developmental quarterback, which even with the Sam Donald stuff, I think we all knew that that was probably going to be on the table for them. And then I really liked Elijah Arroyo, both as a player as a fit for their offense. And also, no offense contract is coming up next year. So it's a good, like, just get an explosive guy in the building. So all of that stuff, I can kind of buy it. I still have some questions that I think we'll, you know, I think we'll get to in a minute. But I think I actually got myself to, if I can view it purely through reimagining the offense, it's fine.

I can, I can kind of buy it. I think that's where I land as well. I think I'm buying it even if I'd still rather have Gino. And I'd still rather have Gino, just if you gave Gino, the contractor Raiders gave him. And he was still on the team. I think I'd still rather have that than what they did this. offseason. But even outside of that, I'm buying the way that they've approached this. So just looking at the numbers on that, obviously, we know, we know more about this.

Gino's people didn't even counter the Seahawks initial offer. And I think part of the reason for that, based on the reporting Albert Brier did at the time, is that that offer didn't include guarantees into the second year. So Donald only got $37.5 million guaranteed its signing. Gino got $66 million guaranteed it signing. Part of that is just an uptick on his 2025 salary, which they already would have been paying anyway. But 18 million of his 2026 salary, Gino's, is guaranteed next year. And then all of it becomes guaranteed in like the fifth day of the league year.

So even if you had given him that deal verbatim, his cap hit this year is $40 million. So you probably would have had to massage that a little bit based on where the Seahawks cap is. But those are details. I still would have rather done that even with the pick that they had gotten in that trade and being able to pay darn a little bit less than having that flexibility. But if you're going to do this, you got seven years younger at quarterback with more flexibility with somebody that has shown an ability to operate in a good situation. We'll see if this is a good situation, but we've seen him be successful when surrounded by

the right stuff and he is significantly younger. Other than that, we can get into some of the other stuff roster-wise. I'm mostly on board with the way that they approach this. I think it's going to be a question of a few things, including, is Clint Kubiak the cure all that they have made him out to be this offseason? Because I think they're begging on that in a very big way. So that's where I have the hang-ups is that I think we are betting on Kubiak in a huge way to fix an offensive line that, even though they obviously went and drafted Gray-Zabel,

I still think they have a lot of questions on the interior in terms of how good is this unit really? They're betting on some young players, Zabel included, who again is jumping from the FCS level to the NFL level, which can be difficult. So they're betting a lot on this offensive line and coaching staff. And I think they're asking a lot of Sam Darnold. Again, and I think he had a nice year. But for everything that we said about him, that Minnesota offense was still like the 16th best offense in the league.

Like it's not like they were lighting the league on fire. And it's not like he was. I think Darnold was, again, middle of the pack in QBR. And that was what was perceived as the highest outcome again for him. So maybe he continues to develop. Who knows that could happen. but just feels like they're betting a lot there. And then my other one question with the offense,

I think we're going to get some explosives just by virtue of being an under-center play action, throw the ball down the field offense. But other than Kenneth Walker, I don't feel like there's a player that generates that many explosive plays by himself. So I have some questions there. And then the other stuff in terms of roster construction, they didn't address corner at all, which I thought they were going to. And Josh Job is like a fine serviceable cornerback to, but I thought they were going to try to

look to upgrade there and they really didn't. So those are the stuff I didn't like, but I ultimately think that if I'm viewing this through a reimagination of Seahawks football, if this is like a holding period year, I can get myself there on what this year was supposed to be. So Sam Darnold last year, and obviously this isn't the most important stab

because the Vikings had so many explosives, but I think it's a good kind of baseline number. Sam Darnold had a 48.7% passing success rate last year. Gino Smith was at 47 and a half. Like, they're in the same zip code. And Sam Darn was playing with Justin Jefferson and in that situation. And even if their line wasn't good in Minnesota, it was not nearly as bad as the line

that Gino was playing with last year. So the idea that, like, Sam Darnold was playing in, if not ideal circumstances last season, then very, very good ones. And Gino was in shitty ones. And they were still kind of in the same general area in terms of the overall, like the efficiency numbers they were producing is at least worth acknowledging. when you consider is the line for Sam Darnold just going to keep going up and up and up,

even if he's seven, because he's seven years younger. And I will say, if we want to do the hopium spin here, even if Clint Kubiak isn't great, even if he's not the savior, I do think there is some level of he understands how to put together an NFL offense

in the way that Grubb didn't last year. And I do think that that could be pretty nice for this team. That's the whole selling point about what Clint Kubiak is going to bring. I don't think Clint Kubiak is going to bring. is going to be Sean McVeigh or Kyle Shanahan or even Liam Cohen from last year. But I think an offensive system where it's all tied together is going to feel vastly different than it did last year. And I think that's kind of the bet they're making along the offensive line outside of the

Gray's Abel move where it's like, all right, we needed to do something here and we needed to do it an aggressive way. Other than that, we feel like a change in system and a change in how the offense functions is going to get the most out of a guy like Ola-Umatimmy at center and potentially Christian Haynes or LaMaya at right guard, whoever ends up winning that job. I'm fine with that general overall plan. The spots I'm actually kind of most concerned about roster-wise aren't the interior of the offensive line based on what they did.

Like, the only thing they really didn't do that was available to them is like be aggressive for Will Fries at Guard. Other than that, there weren't that many guys available in the free agent market. So we've said this before. Like, I don't think your offseason rises or falls because you didn't spend a lot of money on Will Fries. and I say that as somebody who likes him. So the offensive line, fine with the moves that they made there.

The one spot that I would bring up where it's like, I wonder if they could have done more is at receiver after losing DK. McHaff. If you're going to move on from him, which I'm totally fine with, I'd rather have the second round pick and the 30 million I would pay DK. McCaff. But them waiting until the fifth round to go get Tori Horton and then signing MVS and Cooper Cup, I wonder if that's going to be enough.

Other than that, I'm pretty on board with most of the ways that they approach the offseason. then they approach the roster. We talked about this during the draft. I think the MNWari move is potentially like adding a corner if you're going to try to use him in the nickel and move Devin Witherspoon outside. So I think that move gives you a decent amount of flexibility in the defensive backfields depending on how you're going to use him.

That's a really good point. If they can actually get him to be comfortable playing from kind of the way that Hamilton has where he's a little bit more of the nickel rather than a true safety and it bumps Witherspoon outside. think that does a lot. I guess that's one where I just want to see that in action before I start to push that in as something that's going to happen. I think that's fair. But I think that having him be not thinking of it so rigid, usually when it comes to the positional designations, that's how I'm trying to see it. But again, I think I'd still rather have Gino. You can do all the other

stuff that they did and still keep Gino Smith as the quarterback. Like that's available to you. And I know that there were points of friction and I know that maybe the situation was so bad that there was no way he was going to come back but just in this hypothetical if you offered him the exact same deal that the Raiders did with those guarantees into the second year and he just took it and this roster

everything else was the same and you move the money around enough to endure the increased cap pick compared to what Donald has which you think you probably could have done I think I would still like that version of the Seahawks offseason better but that doesn't mean I'm not buying everything they did holistically. And I do like

like that you said that though, that maybe the situation there was just fractured so much that Gino was never going to be the quarterback. And that's why I am trying to view the offseason purely through the post-Geno moves. And if we're doing that, I'd probably lean like 60-40 towards by it. Can you see a scenario where the Seahawks with Sam Darnold are like the 12th best offense in the league, the defense is in the top five, and they're like a 10 or 11 win playoff team? that's not that hard for me to imagine. I don't think it is either. They were close enough to it last year that if you really think Kubiak is going to raise the level a certain way,

the only, again, the question to me is I struggle a little bit to see how they're going to generate enough explosives. But I guess that would be more through like the lens of like winning playoff games rather than be. You can be the 12th best offense and not be like that explosive. You know what I like? You can just be like kind of middle of the pack there. So I mean, I could see 10 wins in like a wildcard berth. Yeah. The Royal thing is interesting to me.

Going that direction at that range of the draft rather than trying to seek out a receiver, that spot, by that point, you know, Higgins was gone. It wasn't a great receiver draft anyway. So there's a chance that a royal was the most explosive pass catcher available to them in that point in the draft. I just look at that group of receivers and I'm just like, I just don't know how this is going to work out. I'm just not sure how much Cooper Cup has left, you know, how much there's an overlap and skill set between like what JSN is. That group specifically, like the past catchers on this team,

I'm having a hard time envisioning what it's supposed to look like if things were to fall into place. And it's just something we're going to have to wait and see. They need, they just need Horton to play well immediately, which he's a guy coming off injury. But like you said, people thought he was better than a fifth round pick. So if he's healthy.

Fifth round picks though. I think, thank it on fifth round. picks to be big contributors to your offense in year one. I think it's a losing battle. The Atlanta Falcons coaching changes this offseason. Jeff Obrick and is a defensive coordinator for the fire Jimmy Lake. They have not traded Kirk Cousins yet. Their offseason moves in free agency.

Leonard Floyd, one year, 10 million. Divine Diablo, linebacker, two years 14 million. Morgan Fox, two years, eight and a half million. Brought Mike Hughes back three years, 18 million. In the draft, Jalen Walker with the 14th overall pick, gave up a future first, got a third back. to move up for James Pierce in the first round. They used that third to draft Xavier Watts at safety,

which was a position of need for them. And then Billy Bowman in the fourth round, I guess potentially as somebody to compete for their nickel spot, he was a safety, I believe, at Oklahoma. Are you buying or selling the 2025 Atlanta Falcons offseason? So for them, the goal is to win the division. You could have and should have done it last year. And I think that they have put all their chips into the basket to go and do that this year.

So one, that is an insane amount of pressure on a young quarterback who only played a handful of games next year where it's like, all right, we have to win the division this year or stuff is on the line. I would lean towards no, but I put an asterisk for whether I buy this or not. And I say no because I still think the way that the edge room is constructed is just too light between Walker, Pierce, Ebikady. Like, it's just a very light room and I don't love that. And then the defensive interior, they didn't do anything. Nothing that moves me that is going to believe that it's going to be a better defense. And so I still have a lot of questions about how well the defense can really play. And then the offense, they didn't add anything, which they didn't need to, right?

It's already a good unit. I love the coaching staff there. The offensive line played well. And so the asterisk on all of this, even though I don't love a lot of their approach, is just like, if Michael Pennix is good, then none of what I just said matters. Like if he's the guy, they will win the division and they will be a playoff team. And I think you should separate. I think you should separate your opinion of what they did from whether it's going to achieve what they're hoping it achieves.

Like I don't think. Yeah, that's, I guess that's fair. What you did in the offseason, whether that that's going to allow you to win the NFC South, I don't think that should dictate whether or not it was a good or bad off season. That's how I would approach the exercise. Well, I guess they were just in such a weird one. because I'm almost viewing the PENix thing as like was kind of part of this offseason in a way. So maybe that's why it's a little bit complicated for me.

But if I'm purely viewing like how they approach this off season and not trying to think about the end goal, that it's an obvious sell. Like I just did not like a lot of what they did this off season. What would you have done differently? If you're selling it, where do you think the missteps were? Not trading a first round pick for a 240 found pass rush. I just, I think he's going to have issues. And again, he might be a useful player in the.

like I've mentioned, Josh, Uche, Bryce Huff, all that. It's just like that's not a player you spend a first-round pick on. And then again, I would have really wanted to be a little bit more aggressive on the interior defensive line. And I would probably have to think a little bit more about what I would have wanted that to look like. But I just think that this is going to be a very light unit that is again going to get pushed around. And really just doesn't have that much of a veteran presence who is going to bring all this stuff together. So I just have a lot of questions about how that front is going to play, which again, when you still have a lot of young pieces in the secondary outside of your two obviously very good guys,

just a lot of questions on that side of the ball for me. This is going to be an offense that has to put up 30 points a game, it feels like. Part of me wants to say I'm buying it for what it is, but I think I agree with you in that even if the positions that they chased make sense, I really do have a lot of questions about how it's all supposed to come together. Like even the type of defense they're going to run. We've talked about this. like Jeff Ulbrick comes from that

Niners world, that four down Niners world where it's like, I don't, how is, how are Jalen Walker and James Pierce supposed to fit into this? Like Jay, John Walker specifically, like this idea that he's going to do this move around piece that can rush from everywhere. Like that sounds great, but I wonder what it's actually going to look like in practice. And the fact that you came into this off season with huge screaming needs at edge, but also at corner.

And now Mike Hughes is your answer to that other outside corner spot. and still feels like the nickel spot is in flux. I know they had limited resources this off season, but you did that to yourself. Like you having to pay Kirk Cousins $40 million against the cap, that's self-inflicted. So I think that, again, the positions they chased with the resources that they have,

if you just put like a position next to it, that makes sense. Like, okay, we have these resources. We're chasing edge rushers, fine, or even safety with a third round pick for Watts. But I just have real questions about how much different this is all going to make. Like if this is the year

where you had to retool the defense to make good on the offense, you did nothing on offense. They did absolutely nothing. No signings, no draft picks on the two deep of the offense. It's kind of crazy to look at when you look at the colors

on the Rwads depth chart versus other teams. So this was all about can you move the needle and fix the defense so you can be competitive in your division and in the NFC at large

and I'm just not sure I buy the moves that they made and the prices they paid for them and the ability to get them there with them. That's what it is because I think with the offense, even if Pennix is just fine, they had fine quarterback play last year and they were a top half of the league offense. They were like the 10th or 11th best offense for a lot of the season until some stuff started to fall apart for them. So if I'm assuming they can just be that again, cool, like you said, they have to fix

the defense. And there's a chance Jalen Walker just fits perfectly as a four down edge and we don't know that. There's a chance that James Pierce is just better than I think that he is. There's a chance that Xavier Watts is Jesse Bates playing next to Jesse Bates. Who knows? It's just, again, when you look past just the positional thing and look at how they actually built these rooms, I'm just not that convinced it's going to be a significantly better defensive roster.

And if that's not the case, you're probably, again, a team that's going to win like eight, maybe nine games trying to score 30 points every game. And that's just it's a hard way to live, man. Even the move for James Pierce, they didn't give up. Everyone's going to say they traded a first round pick to do it. And they did. But they got a third round pick as part of that process. So if you look at modern trade charts, that's really the equivalent of the third round

pick, if that pick lands somewhere in the middle of the first round. We've talked about this. If it lands in the top five or the top 10 because you have a quarterback injury or whatever, the trade turns into an absolute disaster. But if we want to bet on a middle-of-the-road outcome, they're picking 16th and next year's draft, then the trade isn't that bad. But to me, it's not even about that. To me, it's about the process of even wanting to make the trade in the first place.

like that process doesn't inspire confidence. It actually, I think it zaps a lot of confidence. It makes me trust the people in charge there are way less, the fact that they were willing to do that after getting Jalen Walker where they did in the draft, if that makes sense. So the prices might be fine, but I have so many issues with how they arrived there that it's hard for me to get on board with this group and their decisions. That's the thing is because all the reporting is like, okay, they loved James Pierce.

They didn't think Walker was going to be there, so they take Walker. But then they go back up to get Pierce because they were just like, oh, we got to have them. It's like, well, you don't need to double. Yeah, you don't need to double dip at the position when you have four other issues on your roster, primarily corner. Like you don't have a corner too that I think you trust right now for them to go spend what they spend to get another edge who is again undersized when all of their guys are undersized. It's just, again, this could all work out. But this is not the way that I would be putting together a defensive roster. I guess I would say that.

You could also just wait and take an edge in the second round. There were a lot of them. You didn't have to trade away if you're your first round pick. I would rather have Ezaku at, where did they get him at pick 40 something the Cowboys did? So Ezraqu went off the board. So it actually, the draft actually fell in a very funny way. Azaraku and Tumalo from Ohio State came off the board in the two spots before they drafted. They would have drafted at 46.

But Scorton was still on the board. All the Asia was still on the board. Even then you could trade up to like 38 instead of going all the way back into the first round. It would probably cost you a lot less is I guess the way that I would. It sure would. It wouldn't cost you a future first round pick. It would not. It sure would not.

So looking at it right now, this is actually a perfect example. So they were picking 46. The bears are picking 41. The bears traded out of that pick with the bills. So, I mean, they probably could have traded up to 41. I mean, there's plenty of spots in there that if they wanted to. to trade up for a smaller price they probably could have. I think saying we needed to trade a future first to go get James Pierce when there were other

guys on the board that very much could be as good or better than James Pierce based on what history tells us. I think the process just leaves a lot to be desired. Yeah. And I also, this is worth mentioning before we move on, like doing nothing to an entire side of the ball for an entire offseason is crazy. Because even if you feel good about that, the fact that all. of the iterating you're going to do, all of the evolution you're going to do is just different

schematic stuff or are using guys in different ways. Like that to me just feels like a very quick path for regression to come after you. It's like we're not going to do anything differently. It's just going to be the same guys and we're just going to hope we're as good or better. You're exactly. By being stagnant, you're leaving so much room to get worse. And the only way you're going to get better is if Michael Pennix is significantly better than Kirk Cousins, which which could obviously. be, which he might be exactly. That could obviously happen.

But that's the thing is that their only avenue to getting better is Michael Penix is just like really, really good. Like it's not like, oh, this new thing we added it receiver is going to help us or this new tight end we brought in is going to unlock. Like none of that. It's just like the quarterback will be really good. That's betting a lot on a second year guy. So am I. It's putting a lot on him. It's putting a lot on him.

And also like, I get that the offense was pretty good last year. But the idea that, you know, it's going to be Ray Ray McCla. again and like they're fine like the offense was fine but i don't think it was so good personnel-wise that it's like oh you know what we're just set it and forget it on that side of the ball we need to do absolutely nothing which applies to the next team we're going to talk about as well the last thing i'll say here looking at some of the financial realities and you know things may change based on what another team is willing to pay if they trade for him but kirk is a four is 40 million against the cap this year we'll see what they end up paying if they deal him if you know

team takes on some of that contract, whatever. But it's $40 million against the cap this year. It'll be $25 million against the cap next year, depending on what a trade looks like. So if we just played all this out, and he was $40 million this year, and then he gets traded or cut next offseason, it's $25 million in dead cap. That means for the first three years of Michael Pennix's rookie contract, the Falcons will be paying at least $30 million against the cap for their quarterbacks. We knew this, right?

At some point, you're robbing Peter to pay Paul as part of this process. So even if Michael Pennix is really, really good this year, you are still paying full freight veteran quarterback money for your overall quarterback production based on the series of events from last off season. That just didn't go away. That's that's Puna Ford money, man. That's DJ Reed money. You know, that could be solving some problems here. And again, yeah, you're stuck with it on the bench. Punei four money.

That's two Punei Fovar. It's $25 million. Pennington is $6 million. Yeah, exactly. We're going to take one more quick break and then get back with our last couple teams here. The Arizona Cardinals. No major coaching changes this off season.

The higher Justin Frye is their offensive line coach because they lost Clayton Adams, their offensive line coach, to be the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys. Trades or acquisitions, extended, Tray McBride, the richest tight end in NFL history now. Josh Sweat, four years,

76,0.38 guaranteed. Dalvin Tomlinson, two years, 29,015, guaranteed. Baron Browning comes back on a two. year extension and then signed Jacoby Preset, Calais Campbell, Akeem Davis, Gather, and then brought back Kelvin Beecham all on smaller deals. In the draft, Walter

Nolan defensive tackle, 16th overall. Will Johnson, cornerback, 47th overall. Jordan Birch, defensive lineman, third round, 78th overall, and then linebacker Cody Simon in the fourth round, 115th overall. Are you buying or selling the 2025

Arizona Cardinals offseason? It's a very risky offseason for a number of reasons, but I am buying it. I think these were risks that they had to take. Defensively, I think you're taking a risk on Will Johnson for all the health stuff, but I think it's a good pick. Like the player was too talented not to take a swing on a guy like that. 47, that goes out the door. Yeah, like, even like, even Keel Farley was a first round pick. Like, this fell far enough where I was trying to think of another talented, if off injured corner and where that guy went in the draft. Getting Will Johnson in 47 when some people thought he was like a

top 15 pick. 47th picks don't work out all the time. To me, that's a worthwhile bet every single time when you have the roster construction that the Cardinals do. Right. After the first round, you need guys who can get their hands on the ball on defense somehow and Johnson at his best when he's healthy. Absolutely does that.

Walter Nolan at defensive tackle is also that. Again, are you going to get that for 10 plays a game? Or are you going to get it for 50? I don't know. We're going to see. But there was a swing on explosive potential that they absolutely needed to make Jordan Bert who they drafted. I think you can absolutely throw into this bunch.

And then I think on offense, they are taking a risk, kind of like you just said with the Falcons, where they didn't really do anything on offense. I think we could have made the argument that they needed to add another receiver to kind of make the jobs on the offense, make a little bit more sense. And they didn't really do that. And then the offensive line, they didn't add anything where I think some of their worst games last year were because they got pushed around a little bit on the offensive line, particularly at guard, they're keeping Evan Brown around, who I think is like replacement level completely fine player. but they could have upgraded. And then they're throwing Adams into the lineup where he didn't really play last year. And they're kind of betting that a rookie is just going to give them upgraded play. And then even Jonah Williams on the right side, again, to me is like that replacement level,

and we could have upgraded here and we just didn't. So they're taking a risk on the offensive like we didn't add anything, but we'll just magically hope that we're going to be better. And then all the defensive guys they drafted, it's like high upside. I don't know what we're going to get in year one for one reason or another. Looking at the interior offensive line free agent class, which we've done with a couple other of the teams, it was Will Fries, and then after that, Aaron Banks, McCarrie, who we talked about, and then James Daniels and Mackay Beckton, if you look at like AAV for the contracts that were signed.

I don't blame teams for not wanting to get involved in that group. It's why the Bears traded multiple picks rather than play in that sandbox and free agency. But it's still, when you look at the group that they have, it leaves you uneasy. I think if I could change one thing about the way that they approach the offseason, when they drafted Jordan Birch in the third round, Jalen Knoll and Dylan Fairchild were still on the board. And I don't want my personal preferences for players to get in the way of this, but I think using one of those mid-round picks to give yourself potentially more competition at either the interior of the offensive line or receiver rather than adding your fifth interior defensive alignment of the offseason, I think that's a tweak. I think you, I could probably justify making. I agree with that too, because they actually have like, I think in our minds we conceive of like, oh, the Arizona front has nobody.

They actually have a ton of bodies now between what they've drafted the last couple of years. Like, Clay's Campbell, they signed this off season. Dalvin Tomlinson, they signed this off season. Darius Robinson is coming back from injury. B.J. OJolari on the edge is coming back from injury. They still have Baron Browning who like, we don't know what he's going to continue to develop into as an edge rusher. Same thing was Zaven Collins, who they moved to the edge pretty recently.

Like they have, and they signed Josh Sweat, obviously. Like, they actually have a tone of bodies there now. And so even if I liked Birch as a prospect, I'm kind of with you like at the stage at the stage of where they were at with how many bodies they've added to their front, they probably didn't need to throw another one there. They probably could have thrown at least one more guy on the offense to see if they can add a little bit of something. Yeah, I think.

And then maybe like a modest signing along the interior of the offensive line. I don't know. I'm trying to think of a good example. Robert Jones. We just talked about Robert Jones. Can you sign Robert Jones? He would have been perfect. Wow. So one year, 3.8 million for Dallas. Can you sign Robert Jones to a one year four and a half million dollar deal solely for competition? So you get Robert Jones as in free agency and then you go draft Jalen Knoll in the third round where you got Jordan Birch. Let's say they did those two things, which are totally within the realm of possibility. How much better about the Arizona Cardinals offseason would you feel with those two?

additions combined with everything else they did. I think I definitely would feel better. I would have felt like there actually was room for improvement for the offense outside of we just hope that like petzing has a better idea of how he wants to piece this together. That's pretty much their only room for improvement. Or Adams just becomes like an insane player. But again, I would have liked a little bit more competition. And Jones, that's such a great call.

Because I remember when we were talking about who are going to be the maybe weird signings this off season that could help somebody. I brought up Jones a little bit because, you know, we both said in Miami kind of a weird fit. he was a little bit more of a mauler. But that's what Arizona wants to do. They want to pull guys. They want to do all this downhill run game. He would have been such a perfect fit for what they want to do.

So that actually hurts me now that they didn't sign him. That's such a good. That's such a good call. Because I don't like shitting on teams for not addressing certain positions unless you can give me a practical example of what they could have done that they didn't do. And I think that that's a very good one. Like it's $4 million. This team still has a shitload of cap space.

If they wanted to do that, they could. instead they brought back Kevin Brown, and now you're banking on Adams going into year two. They didn't have Will Hernandez for a good majority of last season, and they didn't have Jonah Williams for a good majority of last season. So your bet, if you're Mani Asin for it in the front offices, if we have better health up front and Isaiah Adams is better in year two than our stopgap options were last year at right guard, the offensive line absolutely could be better. I think I would have just given myself or liked to have given myself more optionality

at those spots to create competition. and I think the same thing goes at a red receiver like noll to me that skill set along with the other guys that they have I'm pretty intrigued by what that group would look like and again those moves are on the board he went I think one or two picks noll did after Jordan bursch did in the third round because I think why noll would have been so good there is that he can be the field stretcher and the issue I think I have right now with the cardinals offense is their receiver room is built to make Marvin Harrison Jr. Your field stretcher.

And I think we saw last year, like, the ideal use of him is probably asking him to be a little bit more of your shorter to intermediate guy where he can just win the one-on-ones. He can get open. He can separate. Asking him to be the wind sprints guy down the field isn't the best use of him. But you can't really ask Jay Jones to do that. And you can't really ask Michael Wilson to do that. So he just kind of gets forced into it.

And so that's why the null one is so good. Or even if they just, what if they went out and had been signed Brandon Cooks? just so he could do a little bit of the wind sprints, just get down the field guy and unlock Marvin Harrison. Just something where it would have felt like the roles on the offense would have made a little bit more sense. I think the only reason we're fixating on this is because we're interested in the Cardinals' offense

and would like to see them succeed, right? There are so many interesting kernels and interesting ideas that make up who this team is and the flashes are really exciting that I feel like them making good on the potential that we've seen on offense. I would like them to realize that. And so not doing one or two small things to help them get there.

I think that's where the frustration lies. That being said, I'm buying it overall. Like what they did on defense and the talent upgrade they have at virtually every level of the defense, the way all these pieces are supposed to fit together, like Walter Nolan with Callais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson, and like even constructing that room in the way that they did with a guy who's very talented, but maybe has some personality questions. Like so much of it, Josh Sweat. all of that makes sense to me

and I do think that they're going to be significantly better on defense. I'm talking about like one or two tiny tweaks with the way that they approach the offensive personnel and this would have been like a massive home run for me. I think we are nitpicking it so much because we like kind of what they could be and we like a lot of what they did

we're just trying to poke the holes and like, oh, where could this have been better? But I'm again, for everything I've said, definitely buying it. This is going to be a fraught discussion. The Chicago Bears 2025 offseason. Hired Ben Johnson brought in Dennis Allen to be the defensive coordinator. That's a decent start.

Trades or acquisitions, very busy offseason for the Bears. Dio Dangbo, 3 years 48,0.32 guaranteed a defensive end. Grady Jarrett, 3 years 43,029 guaranteed. Drew Dalman, 3 years 42,000 28 guaranteed at center. Trated for Joe Tuny, traded for, and sort of extended Jonah Jackson's moved some money around at the other guard spot. Extended Kyleor Gordon made him the richest nickel in the NFL. Three years, 40,0.31 guaranteed.

then to T.J. Edwards, two years, $20,000, $16.7 million guaranteed. In the draft, Colson Lovell and 10th overall, Luther Burden, Ozzie Tripio, and Shemar Turner, all in the second round. They had three second round picks after some of the trades that they made. Are you buying or selling the 2025 Chicago Bears offseason? I think I'm buying it. And they were very aggressive in doing some of the things that they did, but I think for the most part, they took the right approaches. For them to immediately, go out and be like, okay, interior of the offensive line. We absolutely have to fix.

And I want to be very clear, they spend a lot to go do this. They spend a lot of money and draft capital to go do that. And I don't think all of these guys are going to work out the way that they want to. Like, chances are of the three, somebody will just be not what they wanted to be or just not healthy enough. Someone will probably be somewhere in the middle. And then you hope that one of them does live up to the contract that you gave them. And so here's the thing, though.

Let's say that's how it goes, where one guy is great. one guy is just fine or maybe misses a few games and then the other guy bombs out. That is still a significantly better interior than we got from the Bears last year. And I think bringing in Ben Johnson solves a lot of the game planning and like pass protection issues

that way that we had last year. So I think even if all three of these guys are not fully living up to their potential for what you wanted out of the interior, it's still a much better unit. And then I also liked on defense that they spent a lot of their picks there and some of their capital

trying to solve that issue with, you know, the Oda Yangbo signing and then throwing a few draft picks there. So I love that the coaches they brought in and then both of the coaches and the front office went, all right, trenches, let's just beef them up as much as possible. So even if some of the offensive line stuff was expensive and volatile with the injuries, I think they mostly took the right approach to things this offseason. Yeah, the offensive line moves are undeniably aggressive. Like going out and trading for Joe Tuny and Jonah Jackson,

even if you weren't giving up a lot and draft capital to do. that what you're paying those guys against the cap like these are expensive moves but they're expensive moves that didn't require you to dip into that free agent guard pool that we've talked about multiple times on this show so for the most part the way they've addressed the interior i think is fine and i think you're exactly right in framing it where ben jons i've said this before even if they did nothing even if they walked into 2025 and grant like let's just in this hypothetical say brachson jones is healthy and let's just say they brought back tevin jenkins right so the line was Braxton Jones, Tevin Jenkins, Coleman Shelton, Matt Pryor, and Darnell Wright.

It was the same five as last year, but Ben Johnson was the offensive coordinator. I think you would have gotten vastly different results than you got last season. So the fact that they improve the personnel and they have Ben Johnson in there now, that to me is one of the more underrated parts of this entire thing. Go watch some of the protection plans that the Lions have, especially against blitzing teams and how smart they are about stealing back a body, back a gap, where the running back's eyes are going in protection. Like, it's just so well coached and buttoned up that it would have been better no matter

what and they doubled down by getting better players, even if they had to spend on it. So all of that, fine. The offensive moves in general, I think I'm mostly fine. Like, the Loveland thing is aggressive for a tight end, but I think you can talk yourself into the upside. The Luther Burden thing was surprising in the moment, but I think as part of this offense, you can talk yourself into the upside. But the defense, the only real issue I have is, I think you paid the sticker price for the Grady

Jarrett and DiO. Dangbo's signings. Like that's, you paid full freight for those guys. And I know that's the market for both of them. Like Grady Jarrett, if you look at third contract defensive tackles in this market or in this free agent class, like Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen got more than Grady Jarrett did. And that's probably reasonable. And so did DJ Jones. So that was just the going rate for third contract players at that level.

I'm just not sure I would need to do. get into that market. Then the O'Dangbo thing, I mean, you're at 16 million. That's like the 22nd highest Aavie for all edge players. You're paying for a second contract guy in a free agent class that didn't have a lot of them. So you're hoping that he's a better player on this deal than he was on his last one, which there aren't that many guys in this free agent class. You could even hope that about. So we'll see how it works out. But there was no discount in what you paid for somebody who doesn't have a ton of production to this point in his career. But other than that, like those contracts being again, I think the full sticker price, nothing they did personnel wise could detract from the fact that Ben Johnson is exactly what you needed to do this offseason.

Like similar to the Jags, like this is a win before you start getting into the nitty gritty of what they paid, who they went out and got, etc. Yeah, exactly. And like even I think with the O'Dangbo signing, I'm more okay with it because I think he's perfect fit for Dennis Allen. And also, you know, we've talked about this before, when you're paying the second contract for guys, when you're theoretically getting them in their prime, I think that is a little bit more defensible, especially in the Bears as what they hope their timeline is

where over the next two years, I think they want to be pretty competitive. The Grady Jarrett won, that one is a little bit harder for me to stomach money-wise. I will say, I think it actually looks a little bit better now that they've drafted Shemar Turner, where I think potentially the idea is that Jared is kind of shepherding this new three tech into what the defense is going to look like a few years from now. So it's a very expensive way to do that, obviously.

But I think it does look a little bit better now that we've gotten there. So again, all of this hinges on how good is Caleb Williams going to really be? Like, what are they going to actually, even beyond the Caleb Williams question, the only concern I have with what they did this offseason or what they didn't do, doing nothing at running back was a little bit shocking to me. I will say that. That was the only thing that I was like, really, that's what we're doing here. Especially in this draft class where there were so many guys available, but I don't mind them hunting more upside with the way that they use those second round picks specifically. Like burden, you know, Turner, I think, has a chance to be like a productive player. He's versatile.

He's along in the way that they like those guys. And then I think that drafting Tripillo where they did, Tripio-Trapil, I'm still not sure how to necessarily pronounce it. But drafting him where they did, I think that giving you a potential. potential solution at left tackle, depending on what happens with Braxton Jones. Now, Medellee can kind of be your long-term swing guy if you want him to. Them addressing those areas, I really don't have an issue with. We'll see what they do at running back and whether or not they bring somebody in. Is it Nick Chubb?

Is it somebody else where we can get more of like an innings eater type back with DeAndre Swift who just isn't quite as reliable as we want him to be? That's a spot where you could hopefully find a reasonable solution still over the course of the offseason. And honestly, if we get to, you know, week 10 and the Bears are honestly a decent team and we think the worst part of their team is a running back like that for a year one of this regime, that's totally fine because that's something that feels very solvable for them in year two or year three. Yeah, I think that's probably fair. And again, for me, it's like this Ben Johnson thing, it was the right bet. Even if it fails, it was the right bet.

Like, this is the right path and the right approach to try to get the most out of your franchise and try to get the most out of the guy that you drafted no number number one overall so we can go back and forth on some of the details with the personnel moves but i'm pretty bought in on what they did this offseason mostly because that was the first thing that they did is go out and get ben jons last one here the miami dolphins no real coaching changes trades and acquisitions signed james daniels three years 24 million at guard small deals for tyrell dodson zach wilson nick westbrook kina epham l phone won ashen davis in the draft they drafted kenneth grant 13th overall and they traded up for Jonas Savanea, the guard from Arizona,

tick with the 37th pick. They traded a third round pick and then moved back eight spots from the fourth to the fifth round as part of that deal. Are you buying or selling the Miami Dolphins offseason in 2025? I think I'm selling it, man. So first of all, they couldn't do a lot. But that is of their own doing, obviously, because one, they were cash strapped because they're committed to all of these old inexpensive players.

So that was part of their issue with not being able to sign many free agents. And then even in the draft, it's not like they had an abundance of picks coming in. And then they had to trade some of their picks to go up and get Savanea because they don't have any interior offensive linemen. Had to had to was very strong there. You don't have to do that. You don't have to. But I will say, like, if they thought they were going to be no other guards in the draft

and that he was the only guy that they could go up and get, I get why maybe had to is strong. But they felt like they weren't going to be able to field a functional. offensive line if they didn't do that, which again, they put themselves in that position, right, by not having a quality offensive line over the last handful of years. Yeah, I just don't. We've learned so much about the NFL draft over the last decade. We have so much information about the NFL draft. Okay.

The dolphins had the 48th pick in the second round. Tate Ratwoods went 57th overall to the Lions. there is almost no scenario where it is worth giving up a third round pick in addition to the second round pick you spent on that guy when there are other players available at the position. Like even if you think he's going to be a star, fine. But it's just bad process. And it's bad process especially when you're in a spot where the dolphins are.

This is a team that had a fewer rookie contract players on its roster. It was like in the bottom three of any team in the league. You can't trade away. top 100 picks when you are in the spot that the dolphins are in. When you have the dolphins current cornerback depth chart, you cannot trade away third round picks. But you do when your job is on the line and you think you need a guard. I don't have to make it right.

No, I don't like it either. I want to be very clear about that. I don't like it. I'm saying these are the justifications of how a front office who is clearly in shambles and scrambling a little bit arrives at the spot they arrived arrived where they feel like they have to go and trade up for Jonah 7A, which I want to be clear it's not like a, I'm not hating on Savonite of the player. It's just like that is a pretty aggressive move for them to have go up and done. Yeah, trading away third round picks for interior

offensive linemen, even if you think that interior offensive lineman is Zach Martin is just not a good way to approach the draft or your roster when you have so many holes. If you look at their safety room to me is the room that I would point out. They're starting safeties right now based on the current depth chart are Ashton Davis and IFA Melfonwo. They paid those guys a combined five and a half million dollars on one-year deals. Those are the depth moves that you make. Those are the dice rolls where it's like, oh, if this guy's our third safety and somebody gets hurt, we're fine. The needle they're trying to thread with this offseason, the way that they built this,

was already going to be hard to do and to stick the landing. And then they were trading away mid-round picks to go up and get good. guards. And I know they didn't have a ton of money to work with. This is a well, well, well, if isn't the consequences of my action sort of offseason for the dolphins. Like right now, a quarter of their cap, a quarter, 25% is going to Tua and Tyreek combined. That is preposterous. And this, all of this actually, including the cornerback room and some of the Tyreek discussion, is why I almost have also like an incomplete grade on what the dolphins offseason is. because with Jalen Ramsey, one, the cornerback room is already, or the DB room in general,

is not good. And they have insisted that they are trading him and just waiting for the right time to do it. So if he's gone, then the DB room. They're waiting for the D.B room to just do it. I think they're just waiting until June 1st because the money is going to work out. Right. So maybe we should have waited for this, held the Dolphins specifically for June 2nd recording. Would trading Jalen Ramsey based on where they are right now make you buy their offseason?

I mean, I guess not really. Yeah, I guess it doesn't really change how I would feel about it, but I guess it would give us one more point of clarity. But no, it's not going to make me feel any different about what they're being. Trading Jalen Ramsey and then trading up for a guard in the second round, those two are incongruous. That's why they're so annoying. And so, okay, we have incomplete with whatever the whole Jalen Ramsey situation is going to be,

if they even trade them, like we might get to a point where for whatever reason, three weeks from now they actually changed their mind, which whatever, man, who knows with them. But then with Tyreek Hill, I feel like there are 100 things with Tyree Kill that we just haven't talked about. In theory, he is their best player. He is a speed player who is coming up on 31 years old. He is incredibly expensive for them, obviously. He had at the very end of last season in the locker room was like, I don't want to be here anymore.

And then he had wrist surgery this offseason. And he had another domestic dispute last month. Like all of these things for your best player, like this team, I just, there's a whole lot about this. off season that I don't buy. And for all of that to be swirling around your best player and then you want to trade your second best player, I just, it's not good. Yeah. This screams to me of this kind of running out of road by the end of the year.

The new regime comes in. They kind of got to tear things down in 2026 and then we figure out where things go in 2027, which I think is when the first time they will reasonably be able to move on from Tua. because when we were talking about this during the season or even when the contract was signed, the deal that he's signed, there was an out after this year, but then I think some of the 2026 guarantees kicked in very early this offseason. So in reality, it was never an out. They would have had to move on after last season, and I don't think they were ever going to do that.

So 2026, they're committed to him. When they get into 2027, that's when they theoretically be able to move on. So that's kind of what this feels like to me, is that if this doesn't work out, which there's a decent chance it doesn't for this regime, the new group comes in that kind of take their medicine next year. And then in 2027 is when you can actually have a blank slate to start over. And I know that's pretty dour note. It's May 12th. Like we're already playing that out as the dolphin season. But it's just not that hard to picture when you consider where they are right now. Yeah, it's really not. Like with, again, with all of their expensive players being old or this quarterback that they, who knows how tired they're going to be, again, if this starts to bottom out, it feels like the 2025 Dolphins roster might look almost completely like unrecognizable from what the 2027 roster is going to look like. I think that's, I think it's going to.

If you look at it right now, the only players that are currently under contract for the 2027 Dolphins, that were not like, I mean, even with that, right now, the guys who are current under contract from 2027 are Tua, which we'll see, Jalen Ramsey, who's probably not going to be here, Bradley Chubb, Jalen Waddle, Kenneth Grant, Chop Robinson, James Daniels, Patrick Paul, Jalen Wright, Muhammad Camara, Malik Washington, Patrick McMorris, Taj Washington. We're talking about like 12 guys that are under contract for them in 2027. That's why you can't trade away third round picks to move out for guards if you are the Miami brass. You just can't do it.

Even if you think that guy is like an all-time prospect, based on where you are right now, you just can't do it. And that's why even when the Ramsey thing was happening, they extended Ramsey in September of last year. And now they're trading him. So they're trying to do stuff that's like for the long term because they probably know they're not going to win anything now,

but they're also trading away mid-round picks to move up for guards. And they only got 10 players on the 20-27 roster. I just don't know what to make of them. I have absolutely no idea what the dolphins want to be or how they're trying to get there as currently constructed. It's like they know they need to win right now with the way that the roster constructed, but they really don't want to.

Like they're trying to do some of this stuff that is a little bit pushing towards the future, but they know they kind of have to win right now because of decisions they made a year ago, two years ago. Yeah, it's a weird spot. We'll see what happens. All right. Just to very quickly run through these.

again. Colts, buy or sell? I think I was probably closer to sell. I'm selling as well. The Jaguars, buy or sell? Buying. I'm buying it as something different. Cowboys, buy or sell? Sell. I'm selling it based on mostly the coaching search, even though I think the roster moves are all defensible. Seahawks, buy or sell. In the post-Geno actions, I'm buying it. That's what I'm at too. Think I'm buying, even if I'd still rather have Gino on the deal the Raiders gave him, is of what I wrote. Falcons, buy or sell? I'm selling. Yeah.

I kind of get what they were trying to do. I kind of get what they were trying to do. But again, outside of the, when we get into the specifics of who they sought out at the positions where they had needs, I think I'm selling it. Cardinals, I think both of us are buying it, even if we have some concerns about the offense. That's kind of why I wanted to do this. I wanted to remind people that we were

buying the Cardinals offseason, despite some of the nitpicking that we were doing. Bears, I think both of us are buying it in part because of the coaching change. And then the dolphins, I just don't know what to make of you. And that's probably why I'm selling it because I just don't know how they're appreciably better in any way. And I think they kind of needed to be appreciably better. Like pick a lane and they didn't pick either lane. Yes, exactly.

And like for the dolphins, if you're going to be better, it's probably just too of being healthy. But that has nothing to do with this off season. All right. That is all we've got. We will be back with another one of these next week. Looking forward to that. Also going to have our first lingering questions. show of the off season, just stuff that we're curious about but didn't have a chance to answer

during the regular season last year. We'll do our first one of those, hopefully tomorrow. So please be on the lookout for that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.