The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Playoff predictions, award winners and Super Bowl picks

Episode Date: September 4, 2024

The 2024 NFL season is on our doorstep. There's just one item of business left...predictions! Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen offer up their playoff picks, award winners and Super Bowl Champions—along with some favorite bets—on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.RundownDefensive Player of the YearOffensive Player of the YearCoach of the YearAssistant Coach of the YearOffensive Rookie of the YearDefensive Rookie of the YearRushing LeaderPassing LeaderReceiving LeaderMVPDivision Winners and Wild CardsSuper BowlHost: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We're doing our season-long previews today. Me and Derek Classen, we're going to pick winners for awards, division winners, our playoff teams, our Super Bowl winner. Before we get to that, though, with one quick little bit of housekeeping, if you guys have not heard yet, this Thursday, 6 p.m. Central Time at no other pub in the Power and Light District in Kansas City,

me, Derek Classen, Mike Sando, coming your way for a live watch party for Chiefs. Ravens. We're going to kick things off about an hour and a half before the game starts. We're going to talk about some preview stuff that we have for the NFL season. We're talking with some quarterback tiers with Mike Sando. If you guys are going to be in town either for the game or because you live in Casey, highly encourage you to swing by that event. Come say hello. We're going to have a bunch of fun.

We would love to see you. I would consider it a personal favor. So please, if you're around, come hang out with us. It would mean a lot. Excited to see you guys there. But right now, let's get to our 22. 24 NFL season predictions and awards. Derek, we're here.

We're a day away from the kickoff of the 2024 NFL season. All of the speculation, all of the predicting, mostly out of the way. We've got a few more of them. We've got the big ones to do today. But actual NFL football is in our sites. And I am very, very excited to have some real stuff to talk about. And we can stop, you know, playing predictor the way that we've had to over the last month or so. I know we're finally here. Like we're recording at 1 p.m. Pacific time,

24 hours from now, I will be on a plane to Kansas City and the season will be like, we're there. We're here. So it's, I mean, there's nothing left to do now. We're here. One last piece of a kind of NFL housekeeping that needed to happen before the season got wrapped up. Obviously, Brandon and I, you signed his contract extension last week. That was all handled. He's at practice now with the Niners. We weren't sure what was going to happen with Trent Williams. He was still holding out. He was still looking for an adjustment on his deal and a new contract that was commensurate with most of the cackle extensions we saw this offseason.

Obviously, Tristan Worf's got paid. Penny Sua got paid. That happened. That happened on Tuesday morning. Trent Williams got his money. He is at practice for the Niners this week. And the fact that they're playing on Monday night gives them a day, an extra day to get ready, even with him coming back into the whole fold a little bit later.

But after an offseason and training camp full of contract drama, full of questions for this nineers team, everything seems to be all systems go. before they kick off their season against the Jets on Monday. They ran us down to the wire. They really, they really cut it close here. But at least we didn't have a, what was it, Chris Jones last year who actually didn't play week one. And even Bosa was close. We weren't sure it was going to happen with Bosa last year too.

This seems like an annual event for the Niners at this point. That's a really good point. Yeah. Let's get to our predictions. That's what we're here to do today. We're going to do pretty much every major NFL award. We're going to pick our winner that we think is actually the best option for this, but also a couple favorite best.

we like there are a couple long shots. I was like thinking about it that way, just a couple guys you wanted to throw out that you think might be fun if people wanted to do something that was like beyond 10 to 1 for some of these awards. Most of our odds, I think all of our odds are going to be coming from that MGM, so just keep that in mind.

And then we're also going to pick division winners and what we think the Super Bowl is going to be. So that's what we're doing today. We saved all of it for today. Wildcards too. Don't forget the wildcords. All the playoff teams. Division winners,

playoff teams, and our Super Bowl. So that's coming a little bit later in the show. I like to start these off with kind of a marquee one. And we've always compared to the Oscars, how they do best supporting actor and actress at the beginning. It's kind of gets you hooked in and then you get to the technical awards in the middle. That's what we're doing. We're kicking this thing off the way we did last year with defensive player of the year. Who is your pick for the 2024 defensive player of the year?

Yeah, mine is. So if people remember before I was officially part of the athletic football show when we did, I think it was the, I don't know if it was the defensive players draft or if it was just the overall non-quarterbackstraft. Not quarterback's draft. Yeah, the non-quarterback draft. I took Max Crosby fairly high. And I think now that he's got a little bit of help up front, I'm kind of willing to bet on Max Crosby to be our defensive player of the year here. And there's a couple of reasons. The first, that guy's going to play every snap. If he's healthy, he is playing 95% of the snaps and just simply being on the field and playing with the energy that he has, you're going to put yourself in a really good position to make plays all the time. The other thing is now he's got some help. Last year he was a really productive, well, pretty much as long as he's been a raider, he's been a really productive player without a ton of help. There have been spurts here and there where he's gotten help.

But certainly last year, I mean, the second best player on his line was probably Malcolm Coontz, who's kind of a young player. So the fact that he was able to be as productive as he was without a ton of help is insane. Now he's got Christian Wilkins, who, you know, we talked about a little bit earlier in some of the other shows. The fact that him and Wilkins now can be this explosive, like you can do a bunch of loops in games and twists and all this stuff up front. I just think it's going to unlock so much for Max Crosby. You also have a little bit of narrative help, I think, with Max Crosby.

If the defense takes the step that we think it's going to take, it's going to be like, hey, look at their star player and look at him, you know, kind of, you know, leveling them up and leveling this defense up. The last point I would make, I feel like there's maybe a little bit of fatigue with guys like Miles Garrett and Michael Parsons and T.J. Watt kind of being the trio that are always in the running for this award. I feel like there's a chance that like I said, if Crosby gets that narrative bump from the defense taking a step, that we might finally give him his flowers for the award. I like the fatigue point. And I was also in a similar place when I was thinking about who I

wanted to pick. It's like, are we really going to pick some combination of T.J. Watt or Miles Garrett or Micah Parsons. Michael Parsons hasn't won it yet. But the idea that we just consistently go to the top five edge rushers, it makes sense because that's theoretically and historically, who has won this award over the past five, six, seven years. I mean, it's been a while. Stefan Gilmore won it as a corner, but other than that, it's mostly been past rushers defensive linemen. So I didn't want to give it to one of those guys because Miles Garrett won it last year. T.J. Watt has already won it. And I just don't know how good the Cowboys defense is going to be overall. And you need to be a really good defense to win this award. And I looked at Max Crosby,

and that's my concern. Are the Raiders going to be able to be a top three to five? five defense for him to get there because typically that's what needs to happen. This award often goes to a pass rusher on one of the best three, four, five defenses in the NFL. So the Raiders team's success part of this is why I was a little bit hesitant about throwing Max Crosby into that conversation. I think that's fair. I'm hoping a little bit that the fatigue, like I said with the other guys,

kind of offsets it a little bit and we're more willing to be like, okay, they were the eighth or ninth defense, but he also put up almost. 20 sacks. All right, I will give it to them. So that's kind of what I'm betting on. So I am actually going with not an edge rusher. I'm going to go with Chris Jones. And it's for this reason. I think it's twofold on the narrative side. I think the chiefs are set up this year to kind of run away with the regular season potentially. I know that there's part of me and I've said this on a couple other shows that thinks they might take their foot off the gas a little bit. But as I thought more about it, I'm like, every other team is in transition. And this team,

is just kind of all systems go. Like they have more talent on both sides of the ball, arguably, than I think they've ever had in the Patrick Mahomes era. And with the amount of continuity, they've had at the coaching spots and just at so many places on the roster, part of me thinks, like, they might just run away with this thing in the regular season. And so if they're the team of the year, especially in the AFC, is there a chance that the defense is so good,

if they are a top five-ish unit, that Chris Jones stands out more than ever on an average? stage over the course of the regular season. And I also think there's a layer to this that after Aaron Donald has moved on, do we get to this place where it's like, oh, Chris Jones stands alone as the best interior pass rusher in the NFL? This is his throne now. And it becomes a moment that we're allowed to celebrate him in a way that we never have before. I actually kind of like that point. Because no, obviously nobody can step into the shoes of Aaron Donald. That dude is the best pure defensive tackle I've ever seen. But inevitably, like,

you said, we're going to try to kind of push someone into that territory. And Chris Jones probably is the best bet to do it. I mean, he was probably the closest on Aaron Donald's shoes this entire time. I think there's also probably the narrative help for Chris Jones. If like, you know, we know the chiefs just lost one of their other best players in legurious need. Yeah. If the defense maintains, you know, top five, six level and Jones has this incredible statistical year, it's like, hey, look at Chris Jones doing all this work to keep the defenses as, you know, as good as they are. So, that's a good pick. I like that. He's only 30, so he's not that old.

Like, theoretically, he's still enough of in his physical prime where you could see him getting like 15 sacks if things go well. He's not before. I mean, he absolutely could have won defensive player the year, two years ago when Nick Bosa won it. So I thought that was just off the beaten path enough, but I could see enough stuff lining up to actually have him get there. Let's run through a couple of your favorite bets. Other guys maybe that are a little bit longer of a shot to do this that you wanted to throw out there that you think are interesting. Yeah, I mean, Kyle Hamilton is a lot of fun. That's my first one of my list.

Yeah, I mean, it's just safety is so hard because I mean, you have to put up, he would probably have to do what, like six, seven, eight interceptions and then get like five plus sacks again. He would have to have a bunch of TFLs. It's just what you'd have to do is you'd have to have the Charles Woodson in 2009 season. And you can keep talking. I'll look up what his stats were. And the thing is defensive backs in general, it's such a position where it's hard to project

the stats, especially interceptions, where it's like, you know, this is why edge rushers are always in the top, because you can look at a guy who consistently gets 12 plus sacks and be like, yeah, he'll probably do that again. Whereas with interceptions and stuff like that, it's a little bit harder to, you know, that's just not a consistent thing in most cases. So that's why a guy like Kyle Hamilton, even though he might be the best defensive player in football, if he could play to that level, but statistically, it might just not get there. In 2009, Charles Woodson had nine interceptions. he scored three defensive touchdowns. He had four forced fumbles and finished with only two sacks.

But that's a ridiculous stat line for a defensive back. And that's usually what it takes to get there. Like Kyle Hamilton, I think five and five would probably be the number. If he had five sacks, five interceptions, like fiveish force fumbles, he would probably be in the discussion. I do think that type of season is on the table for him, though. It's not hard to imagine. And then again, if you get the narrative juice because the ravens are really good again,

and he's the guy that's driving that. He becomes one of the more visible players in the league now being a star for like two-ish seasons. I can see that happening. And he's 40 to one right now on bet MGM. I don't think you could have a more fun bet for defensive player of the year this year than Kyle Hamilton for those reasons. Yeah, if anybody can do it. If any defensive bat can do it, it is Kyle Hamilton. It's just, yeah, that's such a weird position to try to bet on.

My other one that I actually had was I liked a Neil Hunter at around like plus 3,500 because I do think that there is a chance. This is a guy who's gotten 14 plus sacks in three out of five out of the last five seasons. And then some of the other seasons where he didn't, he was just hurt. And last year he had 16 and a half. And I think there's a real chance that when this defense, if the Texans defense kind of takes the step that we expect them to, there's a real chance that he goes for 15 plus again. And like, I don't know, man. If he has that little narrative bump of us of everybody in the world, being all in on the Houston Texans and he puts up 15 plus, he could be right in there. I like that one of the Texans are again, like one of those teams of the season. My only concern there is, are we going to get some split votes? Like, well, Anderson has a big season. If Derek Stingley has a big season, is that going to be a concern for a guy like the Neil Hunter? I think what I was looking up the odds, Hunter and Anderson were like back to back.

So there is definitely some concern of like a little bit of splitting votes. I have three more that I wanted to throw out very quickly. Roshan Gary is 50 to 1. if the Packers defense is actually good, and I've said that I think that they're going to be good, and he does get 15, 17 sacks as a full-time player again after coming back from the ACL last year, and he's the face of that sort of resurgence.

I could see something like that happening, and I'm going to throw out two Jets. If Aaron Rogers is healthy and the Jets win like 11 or 12 games and their defense is like a top three unit again, sauce Gardner is 60 to 1, it's really hard to win it as a corner. We establish this, but if he gets like seven, eight picks,

and has that Stefan Gilmore in 2019 season. Could he do it? And the other one, Quinn and Williams is 80 to 1 to win this award. 80 to 1. No, there's no way. 80 to 1. He was 30 to 1 last year. And I don't really understand what's that different about his profile this season

compared to last year. You can make an argument that the Jets are set up to be a better team this year than they were last season, maybe not on defense, but overall. And he was 30 to 1 last year. he was third in pressures among interior defensive linemen last season. He just didn't turn them into sacks. So what if this is the year he gets like 14 or 15 and actually turn some of those pressures into sacks and the Jets are an 11, 12 win team that dominate the conversation?

Like 80 to 1 to me feels way too long for somebody that has his consistent production and plays for a team that might have the sort of profile the Jets have this year. I like Quinden Moore because, yeah, you know he's going to get pressure and you know he's going to get near the quarterback. And now there's more question marks about other guys on the roster being able to finish. You know, we don't know what we're going to get with Reddick. They obviously lost the guy like John Franklin Myers. So he might be able to be the guy who actually just gets home on a lot of these sacks. I also think with Sauce, incredible player, right? Definitively top two corner in the league, he doesn't get interceptions because teams just don't throw at him like that.

That's the problem, right? Yeah, that's the issue. So he could, again, it could be like Hamilton, where he plays like the best defensive back in football. But statistically, it's just hard to get there sometimes. It's that, again, it's the Gilmore in 19 season where sometimes you just have that year where the ball is coming your way. DJ Reed's good enough that teams aren't necessarily saying we're going to pick on that guy over the course of the entire year. The path is definitely narrower for sauce, but I just think that somebody with his talent

and the Jets upside defensively, like Miles Garrett was on the best defense in the league last year. Nick Bosa was on the best defense in the league in 2022. These awards typically come on really, really good units. and I think the Jets have that sort of upside defensively. Let's go to the other side of the ball. Offensive player of the year, who is your pick for this season? I mean, mine is boring.

It's just the best, it's just the best non-quarterback, which is Justin Jefferson to me. Like, it's a very boring pick. He's won it before. That's kind of part of why I picked him is like, we know that he has the talent and the ability to do it. He was on an insane statistical place last year before he obviously ended up missing, you know, kind of the second half of the season. I also think there's a bit of a narrative thing here where if he's able to do it, let's say he puts up

1,700-ish yards and obviously 10 plus touchdowns with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Do you know how crazy the narrative is going to go if he can do it with that will be the narrative is that, oh, this guy can just do it with anybody, which I think is already where we feel about with Justin Jefferson, obviously. But again, if he does it with a guy like Sam Darnold and kind of helps revive him and like maybe people start talking about him the way that we did with Baker or Gino, whatever, I think that goes a really long way for a guy like Justin Jefferson because ultimately, like I said, these awards are narrative awards. It's not necessarily the best player,

but he also happens to be the best player at his position. I'm heavily invested in Justin Jefferson in fantasy football this year for all of the reasons that you said. So if this does happen, if he has that sort of season and can do it with Sam Darnold, it plays into my agenda very well. So I'll absolutely take it. That being said, I have questions about what his production might look like with Sam Darnold. When it comes to receiver production and fantasy possibilities, I think it's all about can you clear a certain bar, right? Derek Carr cleared that bar for Devante Adams in 2022. It doesn't take a top 10 quarterback to get you to a place where you can have 1,700 yards and a dozen touchdowns as a receiver.

The question becomes, does Sam Donald get to a point where he can clear that bar? And I don't know what the answer to that is. I don't either, but I also think they throw at him enough times. that like it's not going to matter like they they might just feed him 200 plus targets like who cares and that's totally fine with me but that's why my choice is cd lamb because he was on like a 200 plus target pace last year and the cowboys got worse at receiver like if you were guys to throw the ball to i just cannot even imagine what level of volume cd lamb is going to see this season within that cowboy's offense we saw the change over last year after the buy he got to a place where i mean he had 100

46 targets after week six last year. 17 more than any other player in the league. The next closest guy was on Ross, St. Brown. Tyree Kill was at 122. He played one fewer game. So C.D. Lamb ran away with the target lead for the final, like two-thirds of last season. And I think that's going to continue again.

They've tapped into how they want to use him in that offense. And I think he is a real threat to get like 2,000 yards this year if he maintains that level of volume. And for a receiver to get it, you need to have that sort of crazy statistical year, and I do believe that is on the table with CD Lamb, no question about whether his quarterback clears that bar. We know that Dak Prescott is good enough to get him there. Yeah, there's no doubt about that. I really thought about CD Lamb. So this is actually a pretty good victimy as well. My, where I kind of got split on it was so I do think they're going to throw at him a lot. Obviously,

they did it last year. And like you said, they might have just gotten worse. So like there's no other place for the targets to go. And obviously, we know Dak lost throwing to CD anyway. Their schedule all however was like incredibly easy last year. Oh yeah. This year it's not going to be quite as easy. So I wonder like what is the counterbalance in in that sense? And so when that was kind of like, you know, where I was flipping the coin, I was like, I'll go with Jefferson just because if they both, let's just say they both get to 1750.

Narratively, that's way cooler for Justin Jefferson just because he's doing it with Sam Darnold. If Justin Jefferson finishes this season with more catches and yards than CD land, that I will be doing backflips about other areas of my life. So I win either way here. I'm totally fine. Who is your favorite bet, maybe with a little bit longer odds that you wanted to mention here? Yeah,

I think there were a few that I kind of dabbled with, but I think my favorite, and I think this is my favorite because the way that it would look would be the coolest. Derek Henry is at about plus 4,000. I think there's a real shot he could be just absolutely nuclear. Like when you, he was already second in the league last year in total.

Total rushing yards. Obviously, it took a million carries to do that. But he's probably going to get a lot of carries again here in Baltimore. And now he's doing it in an environment where you're automatically a top five rushing offense when Lamar Jackson is your quarterback. And now you have this like insane dichotomy of Lamar being the quickest, most slippery guy on the field. And then Derek Henry just being the guy, you don't want to have to tackle 25 times a game. So they have this incredible pairing. I also think too, I think they brought in Henry specifically so they don't have to run the in the red zone as much as they used to. Because, you know, he's at a certain point, the hits are going to start, you know, loading up for him and it's going to be a problem. Well, let's just go get Derek Henry and just kind of use him as a battering ram inside the 10. So I just think there's a chance he scores like almost a touchdown at game and just goes crazy. As somebody who's also heavily invested in Lamar Jackson and fantasy, I would not like that version of the Ravens to play out. But I don't think that's wrong. And I do think that there is a, we've talked about this. there is a timeline where the boxes he's running into in the situations that we're seeing

Derek Henry in are just completely different that we've seen in years past. The Ravens ran into a lot of heavy boxes last year, but that was mostly when they were running out of the personnel groupings that give you those boxes. If they're trying to spread things out a little bit more, if they play more in 12 personnel this year with Isaiah likely and Mark Andrews and teams are going to match that with nickel and there's just a little bit more space for Derek Henry to work with than he's had in Tennessee, I'm really curious to see how that formula could ultimately play out. So that's a decent one.

I totally understand that. I mentioned a lot of Jets on this show, but again, I do think that if the Jets have a decent season, they're going to get so much attention. Garrett Wilson at 31 is just so juicy to me. We've seen Aaron Rogers systematically feed the best receiver on his team over and over and over again throughout the years. Can we imagine a world where Garrett Wilson gets like 175 targets? this year and scores like 15 receiving touchdowns.

Absolutely. Like that that's not even that hard to imagine. And so him being 30 to one here, it's like, I'm just pushing that button over and over and over again if I want a fun bet that would pay off in a big way. That's easy to imagine as it is. And then the guy who has the best chance of stealing targets for him is Mike Williams, who is like traditionally off the field for half of the season. So like if that happens again, which it might, I mean, Garrett Wilson is the easiest place for

these targets to go. Garrett Wilson. We talk about Cini Lamb getting 146 targets weeks six through 18 last year. Garrett Wilson was third. He had 125. He had more than Tyree kill. This team has already wanted to force feed this guy the ball before Aaron Rogers was even there. So if they can get decent quarterback play and he maintains a similar sort of workload that he's gotten in the past, it is not hard at all to imagine him getting into that same conversation with Tyreek with Citi with Justin Jefferson just in terms of the share of the pie, these guys are getting incompetent NFL offenses. And I think that there is a chance that Garrett Wilson goes absolutely nuclear this year. And for his odds to be two, three, four times as big as some of these other receivers,

I just don't think that that really computes for me. My only problem with him was it kind of like you mentioned with the Texans, I almost wonder if the offense is really as good as it could be, that him and Bruce Hall end up kind of splitting some votes because I think that's true. That's a good point. Yeah, that's a really good point. Breez Hall probably deserves conversation. I mentioned here too. And like Bijan, like those, those types of guys could get the sort of volume that you

absolutely put them in the conversation. Let's keep going here. Coach of the year. Who is your coach of the year winner for this year? It's an interesting crop. And we'll get into kind of how you win coach of the year typically. But my choices typically are in that mold where it's, okay, who is the team that overachives that we did not expect to overachieve?

And that's the coach that's going to get coached the year. year. Maybe it's because it's been hard for me to identify who that team is going to be this season. I kind of drifted away from that pool of candidates. I'm curious what direction you want, though. I'm so glad you said that, actually, because both my expected winner and my like, you know, favorite bet for this are not of that mold. Like they're more teams that I think are going to be good and might just be exceptionally good and that would be how they win it. So I'll start with the boring one. Damico Ryan's. Like if this, if the Texans win, I don't know, 12, 13 games, they handily win the division. then the defense goes from, you know, kind of middling last year to, let's say they're the

seventh best defense in the league. Who's going to get the credit for that? It's going to be the defensive-minded head coach and a guy like D'Amico Ryans who brought in a bunch of his guys and they started playing with this different attitude that we saw in San Francisco. So I just think there's so many like pre, like so many of these narratives are pre set up for success. And I have so much faith that D'Amico is going to be a good head coach and that they're going to win games. They're going to win this division. It just kind of seems like the obvious. obvious bet to me? He was my favorite bet.

So he's 14 to 1. So he was my favorite bet to win this. My choice is kind of in a similar mold. I'm picking Dan Campbell. Like if the Lions go 13 and 4 and the Lions are the best team in the NFC. And the Lions, we have like a team of the season in the AFC and the Chiefs and a team of the season in the NFC and the Lions.

Can't you see a world where Dan Campbell just gets the Lifetime Achievement Award here? He hasn't won it yet. He's orchestrated one of the biggest turnarounds we've seen narratively for an NFL team over the last decade. But for whatever reason, it's never lined up for him to get coach of the year. They had enough preseason expectations last year for doing what they did. He wasn't rewarded for it. And he went to a guy like Kevin Stefanski who overachieve with the roster that he had. The Kevin's keep beating him.

Didn't O'Connell also win it during? I don't know who won coach of the year in 2022. I don't know. Brian Daibble won coach of the year. Oh, it was dable. That's right. Okay. So this is the problem because this is always what happens. It always goes to the coach who does the most with the least. And but I just have, I'm having a hard time figuring out who that's going to be this year. Like the two guys that are at the top of like the odds list, the three guys. Jim Harbaub, Matt Eberflus and Rahim Morris are all in that conversation. And I get it because those teams are potentially set up to be surprised wildcard teams after not making the playoffs last year. But I don't. feel comfortable enough picking one of those teams to be that franchise this year that allows me to pick any one of those three guys. They would have to be like a top two seat in their conference, basically for those guys to win the award, maybe a little bit less so with like the charges,

because I think we're all kind of down on them now. But still, man, it's so hard for me to see it with all of those guys. Or the other one to me was I thought about Sean Payton for a second. And I was like, man, how much would they actually have to achieve for them to get there? Like, they'd have to win probably 11 games, right, for him to actually win the award. And I was like, the Broncos aren't winning 11 games. Like, that's just not happening. I think if they made the playoffs, he could have a reasonable case for getting it. But it's just hard for me to imagine the Broncos making the playoffs.

I know other people have picked them to do that. I just don't see the offense getting there that quickly. And I think the defense is fine talent, but not enough talent to like consistently lift them throughout the season. I absolutely could be wrong about that. But that's just harder for me to imagine. Somebody else I thought, if the Seahawks are as good, as we're anticipating, maybe somebody like Mike McDonald gets it. Like if the Seahawks make the playoffs, he'd be in that conversation.

But I just think this might be the year where we look at years-long turnarounds, like we've seen with Detroit, like we've seen with Houston. And those coaches, those teams are so good that both him and D'Amico Ryans are in the conversation. So I think we're kind of on the same page there. Who was your favorite bet? Did you say? No.

My favorite is like, again, I tried to look at all these guys that like, man, can this team overachieve? and like how much would they actually have to overachieve to get it? You know, I wanted guys like Mike McDonald or Sean Payton, and I just couldn't get all the way there as my favorite bet. My favorite is actually just Andy Reed, dude, because I think there's a chance that the Chiefs win like 15 or 16 games, if everything really goes into, if really, if everything comes into focus.

And if they do that, like, even though we all have already accepted that Andy Reed is an incredible coach and he has Patrick Mahomes and all this stuff, okay, but if you win 15 or 16 games, like you're going to at least be in the conversation. And so I just, I'm basically just betting on the chiefs being that good. It's very funny that we went the same direction with both of our choices because we didn't have the courage to pick any of the surprise wildcard teams. I like that we're both in the same place there. Two 48 hours away from the season, we're still absolute cowards. All right. Next one here, assistant coach of the year. I was like this one. I pick Mike

McDonald last year. I think Nate picked Jim Schwartz. I mean, it was very much those two guys were probably at the forefront of the conversation the entire season. If you had to pick a coordinator, on one side of the ball to win this for you this year, who would it be? Mine is probably a little bit of wish casting, but also like kind of what you just said with Dan Campbell is I'm, I'm shifting my lion's focus here to the defensive side, which is purely Aaron Glenn. Oh, man.

Yeah, I think there's a chance. If they are the seventh or eighth best defense and they really take a step forward in the secondary, which we've all lauded as, you know, Aaron Glenn's thing. He's like, oh, he did a great job with the secondary in New Orleans. And he's gotten a little bit more maybe out of some of the just random depth and practice squad guys that he's had with the Lions. Okay, well, you have real players now. Let's go see if you can you can put together a real defense. So I think if they really take that

step where they are firmly a top 10 unit, maybe even closer to top five. And this Lions team wins, I mean, if that happens, they'll win 13 games probably. I think Aaron Glenn will like fully get his flowers. Okay. So here's the problem with with that pick based on history. For the most part, you need a unit that's like transcendently good. You need one that like dominates the conversation the entire season. So Jim Schwartz won it last year, was the APA assistant coach of the year and the Browns were the best defense in the league. Domeco Ryan's won in 2022 when the Niners were the best defense in the league.

2021, the Cowboys won it with Dan Quinn. I think they finished like, they finished seventh and points allowed that year. But they were like fourth and defensive DVA way. Like they were a top five issue unit. But like that's on the table for Detroit. That's on the table. I just think that path is a little bit harder.

Like top seven or eight, I think, would be a really successful season for them on defense. But you need to get higher than that to usually win this award. And if you go back even further, like Brian Daible won it in 2020 when the Bill's offense had that huge monstrous, monster's explosion. And then the year before that, Greg Roman won it in 2019 when Lamar won the MVP. Vic Fangio won it in 2018 when the Bears had that transcendent offense or transcendent defense that, like, dominated the season. So that's the type of unit you need usually to get there. And that's why I'm going with Ben Johnson.

I'm going with the other side of the ball for the Lions. Because again, if the Lions have the best offense in the league or the second best offense in the league, you can't give it to Andy Reed because he's not an assistant coach. So it almost like by default to me might go to Ben Johnson if the Lions and Chiefs kind of are in those conversations the entire year. On the transcendent unit, actually that part of the argument does make sense. why I went with Glenn over Ben Johnson was it feels like we're all already kind of there on Ben Johnson being great. I mean, there's been two cycles in a row now where he was almost a head

coach. And I think we've all kind of accepted he's already great. I think with Glenn, it could be like this little bit of a come up story where we've kind of said like, okay, he has a chance to be good, all this stuff. But now he's really got his chance. And if it all clicks into into motion, it could look really good. It's not always those types of guys though. Sometimes it's guys who are established. Like Dan Quinn had been around. Jim Schwartz had been around. To me, O'Reyans was kind of a come-up sort of guy, but it's, this one's all over the place. This one doesn't have like, with the actual archetype of the coach himself and what his story is, even that story for that season, there isn't necessarily one sort of narrative that

always dominates here. So I think that's why it's a little bit harder to pin down. I didn't have odds for this one, but a couple other names I at least wanted to throw out. Ben, Bobby Sloick, who was a finalist for this last year, I think is probably going to be in the conversation again as long as Texans have CJ Stroud. Drew Petsing, I think, would be an interesting one. It's hard for me to imagine the Cardinals getting all the way there, but I think he's going to be a guy that's just in discussions this season,

if Arizona's offense takes a step. And the other one I had was Steve Spagnolo. There's a chance to me that Steve Spagnolo just gets recognized as like a career achievement award this year. If the chiefs have like a top threeish sort of defense, which I absolutely think is on the table. I think that's a good one. The last one I would throw out and like his quarterback might just steal a lot of the attention. so I don't know if he would actually get it, but it's possible Joe Brady,

like if the Buffalo Bill's offense is significantly better than some people are worried about that he could kind of get into that category. This feels like you projecting the narrative. It's the narratives you want to buy into this year. Like these are the conversations, if these units are good that you're going to be wanting to have in like week six when we're doing the week six preview,

it's like, we got to talk about Joe Brady and the bills. Or we got to talk about Aaron Glenn and the Lions. And your like little pet interest don't necessarily rise to the level of assistant coach of the year sort of resumes i'm i'm trying to imagine what is the NFL that i want to watch exactly right hasting it onto these awards and praying to god we get there i'm doing that a little bit but i i just think that the criteria is a little bit narrower in terms of how i'm trying to hand these out offensive rookie of the year who are you picking to win this year's offensive rookie of the year i mean Caleb williams like we don't we don't even really have to like

we can almost i am going to allow myself to do this yeah we can almost just jump straight to the favorite bets because I mean there's almost nothing to say about Caleb Williams. Great quarterback looped into an offense that is significantly better than most rookies get done and done. I will say this though. I think that there are guys who are absolutely in the conversation to knock him off that perch. Like I think that Marvin Harrison Jr. is potentially somebody that's walking into a really good situation and could have the sort of season that gets you there. And then my favorite bet also like I don't think is that much of a long shot. And there's, I think he's right there with Caleb Williams in terms of like who I would actually bet on to win this. But who is your favorite bet to do this? It's maybe a little bit of a longer shot. Mine is, again, I mean, I'm going to go back to the bills. Well, like, Kiann Coleman.

I think there's a really good chance that he takes, like he could have, I think similar to like Rishi Rice last year, where maybe the first five, six weeks, you're like, okay, I can see the flashes. And then by the end, you're like, oh, wait, he's very obviously their best receiver. And, like, going into the playoffs, you're thinking about how much of a weapon is he going to be for them. So I think there's a chance that he could do it. Obviously, like, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the better player and I expect him to have the better season. Malik neighbors will probably get more volume and all that stuff, but I think there is a chance that narratively, Keon Coleman could kind of have a lot going for him. What are his odds to win it? It was like plus 3,500. So like it is pretty long. Like it. Yeah,

yeah, yeah. Again, one of those like, it is one, I would just like, there's a chance you could have a thousand yard rookie season. And if, again, if the bill's offense is better than we think and he kind I just has the other thing going for him, everybody already loves Keon Coleman. Like we're all already bought in on Keon Coleman, the personality. So if he does a pretty good season, that could be the deciding factor. For a second round pick, he has a very high Q score for a guy coming into the league. That's a really good point to bring up, actually. I just love Joe Brady, Keon Coleman. You are just trying to manifest this Josh and I with the Kean Coleman connection in the most obvious way. And I can't help but respect how shamelessness is. I need it.

I'm going to Kayle Williams is my winner. I'm going to let myself have this. My favorite bet, even though it's not that much of a long shot, Malik neighbors at 14 to 1. I just think that there's a chance he gets an ungodly amount of targets and attention and focus within that offense. And those are pretty good odds for somebody with his projected workload and talent. So I think that's probably the bet that I would make if I were throwing money down. I think there's a really good chance that by the end of the year we get to a point with Neighbors and Harrison where neighbors maybe has like 300 more yards right but it's significantly less sufficient because the cardinals offense is just way better whereas the giants are just

throwing it neighbors a million times and we're going to have this crazy discussion that's no one cares i guess that's going to be more of like a nerd for this award gives a shit if if malik neighbors has 300 more yards on 70 more targets no one is going to care yeah we're just going to see big number and be like yeah give it to them that sometimes that's how this goes and that's why i think that it's an intriguing bet deep defensive rookie of the year, who is your pick? So this is actually a really weird year for it. Super hard.

Yeah, Ben Solac, who is now at ESPN, shout out to him, by the way, incredible guy. But he, he kind of pointed out that usually this is an award that goes to a top 15 pick on defense. There really weren't any of those guys this year. Like the only guys that went in the top half, like really were, I think, Liatu, Latu, and like Byron Murphy were kind of up there. And so I think those are probably fairly safe. to do it. But even those guys, to me, aren't like, wow, automatic. This guy's going to instantly change your unit, that type of deal, whereas you typically get that from some of your top

eight picks along the defensive line. So I just kind of went with Terry and Arnold, which again, I'm just wishcasting. Like, I just want the most fun guy. I just think if you're going to have a year where it's a weird position that wins it and cornerback is typically not one that wins it. But again, it's the narrative thing. If this defense really takes the step that we think they can take, it's going to be because they brought in a guy like Terry and Arnold who can actually play man-to-man coverage. So I just think, again, it kind of works narratively for him if there's not going to be some other 10-sac rookie who goes crazy. There's been a few corners who have won it in the last 10 years. I mean, Soss Garner won it two years ago.

Marshawn Lattimore won it in 2017. Marcus Peters won in 2015. And I do think that the Soss Gardner comparison makes sense here with the defense that just kind of takes a huge jump forward. And I think that that's where the Lions could potentially do this. I'm not sure if Aaron Glenn could rise to that level if they become like a top seven or eight defense. But if they do that and we spend the whole season, be like, man, the lion's defense is pretty good, huh? And Taryn Arles gets like five, six interceptions as part of that. I totally could see that happening.

You mentioned the guy that I'm picking. I'm going with Byron Murphy because I didn't really have somebody I felt more convicted about because it's such a shallow pool. And how easy is it to picture us having those discussions and we gate like, Oh man, Mike McDonald, he did it again. Like, it didn't matter where he was. Like, he's going to get the most out of these guys. And Byron Murphy is so talented that it's just easy to picture a scenario where he finishes with like between eight and 12 sacks as a rookie.

The Seahawks are one of those units we're consistently talking about. And because there aren't that many other obvious candidates this year, he kind of edges out a shorter list of players than we typically think are in the running for something like this. he might get the McDonald narrative buff, which is a good one. And then also with McDonald, it's so easy to see Byron Murphy just slotting into the role that like Matabike was playing last year and being like, ah, yeah, you can already see it in your head, like how it's going to play out. So that was my other pick for like my best bet to win it was. It was between him and

Arnold that I came down on. Do you have a favorite bet? Yeah, my favorite, like my long shot, again, is another corner actually funny enough. But again, I already said this before on a different show. I'm so bought in on anything to Miko Ryan says. And if he says, Camari Lastert is a really good player, I think Camarie Laster is a really good player. So I'm just, I would throw down a couple bucks on that.

That would be my way. I'm surprised the guy I went with, I'm surprised you didn't go this direction. I was going, I want Junior Colson. He's 30 to 1 to win it. And linebackers historically, it's been less prevalent recently,

but linebackers have won this award a bunch of different times. I mean, there was a stretch in the mid-2000s where it was all off-ball linebackers. Jonathan Vilma, D'emico Ryans, Patrick Willis, Gerard Mayo, Brian Cushing, Luke Keechley won it eventually, Shaq Leonard won it in 2018. It's kind of drifted away from that. But I also think that there's a storyline where the chargers are just so much better than they were last year and their defense is so much better. And I think that the same reasons that Jim Harbaugh is up there for the coach of the year odds, if this defense is like a top half of the league unit somehow and Junior Colson is like

at the center of that. He played for Jesse Minter. We're talking about that. He gets like 140 tackles or whatever number doesn't really matter, but ends up becoming important for these sorts of discussions. That's just the one that was a little bit deeper in the odds. I was like, all right, I could see a path for this happening, even if I think it's probably a little bit remote. I think if he plays a majority of the snaps that's on the table, my hang up was just, I don't know what their linebacker rotation is going to look like. So I totally fell all the way there. All right. we're going to want some statistical champs here moving away from the awards who is your 2024 rushing champion i already kind of mentioned it earlier and this truthfully is like

kind of splitting the difference between what my favorite bet should be and also what i who i think should actually win it it's derrick henry like i said last year he was second in the league in rushing on one of the worst rushing teams that we've seen in a long time like that offensive line was terrible. And they couldn't do anything for him. Obviously, he just gets there by having like 280 carries. But I think there's a good chance that he gets 240 plus carries again. And if he's doing it on a much, much more efficient clip, I think there's a pretty good chance that he is just our rushing leader. I went with a different guy with almost the exact same reasoning. And I went with Jonathan Taylor. Just these guys and offenses with running quarterbacks, they're going to be running

into decent boxes that are probably going to be hyper efficient. I don't know. The touchdowns are a concern. just for like Jonathan Taylor's overall upside as like a fantasy player or an offense player or the year candidate, whatever. But I could absolutely see a world where Jonathan Taylor rushes for like 1600 yards this year with Anthony Richardson standing next to him

and that Colts team wanting to keep the ball on the ground a decent amount to kind of protect a young offense. My reasoning for not picking Taylor, and he was like my second one is probably a stupid reasoning, but he's struggled a little bit to stay healthy lately, which sounds crazy compared to Derek Henry because he's a much older and typically when these guys get older they start to break down. But I'm so convinced that Derek Henry is just an unkillable Ironman that he's going to be a,

he's going to be fine. I would, I could absolutely see Derek Henry doing it this year. But I just think Jonathan Taylor again, like four or five years younger in that ecosystem. It's not hard for me to picture him having that sort of season. Who is your favorite bet for Russian champion? My favorite was Derek Henry because he's only like six or seventh in the odds. Like he's not like one of those top favorites like a guy like Jonathan Taylor. The other one I wanted to throw out was like, if I really think the Chiefs are going to win 15 plus games and the offensive line can be better and do some of the more gap scheme stuff they were doing towards the end of last year. And especially with the Chiefs having no real second running back, there's like a chance Isaiah Pacheco could get there. I don't think it's that great. But I think he's like plus, uh, 2,600, which again, he's like 12th or something in the odds. But like, there's a chance that it could happen. I didn't have that many that I thought were interesting. They were a little bit deeper in the odds here. Kenneth Walker's 30 to 1.

and I don't know if that offense is going to be built for him to have like 16, 1,700 rushing yards, but I do think that he's prime for a pretty big year. And I think they're going to lean on him in ways they haven't over the last couple years. So he just has like the requisite talent. I think that offense is going to be good enough for something crazy to happen. But there wasn't anybody on this list that I was like particularly enthused about. Well, because the problem is after like the fourth or fifth guy, it's just all backfields that are going to be split.

So your options are pretty limited on who's actually going to be. the rushing leader. It's the nature of trying to pick out productive running backs in 2024. 2004 passing champion. Who did you have? I went with the boring answer. I went with the best player in the league, Patrick Mahomes. Like I just if this offense, he was, we talked about it earlier on the, on the, on the AFC West show. Patrick Mahomes continues to get better at football. Like he walked into the league as an MVP and he's only gotten better and smarter and more accurate and more calm in the pocket since then. And now if we're adding the speed element back to the offense that it's been missing the

past couple of years in two seasons when they won the Super Bowl anyway, there's a chance that he just throws for like 5,000. It's like we don't even believe. Yeah, I have the exact same answer. And we can talk about, you know, what that's going to look like. I think a little bit later when we get into some other awards. But he was my pretty easy one just because I think that there's a chance he has just an absolutely monster year.

And I think he was like five to one on bet MGM, but I feel like he's probably the best answer. Who was your long shot that you wanted to throw out? Mine was, I mean, this again is going to be like a little bit too on the nose, but mine was actually Trevor Lawrence. I feel like there's a chance that they just ask him to throw 620 times. And if he's even mildly more efficient than he was last year, that probably gets him there. You would probably need some degree of like Patrick Mahomes not throwing for 5,000 yards, obviously to get there.

But like, I kind of don't think Tua's going to get there with their skis. schedule. I don't know if Joe Burrell is going to get there. Like he's probably not going to play enough games. I just, I was like, yeah, if somebody's going to get the volume, it probably is Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence of 25 to 1 is a fun one. I'm going even deeper than this. Just talking about like being a parody of myself, Gino is 45 to 1. That is pretty good. That is, I do like those numbers. In that offense with those skill position players, that's, that's my favorite one.

Gino and Deshawn Watson have the same odds to lead the league in receiving yards. That feels incredibly wrong to me. That feels horrifically wrong. Like, that just, like, Gino, I can see it. So many weird things would have to happen for Cleveland and Deshaun Watson to get there. I'll give you another one. Baker has better odds to lead the league in passing than Gino does. I'm telling you, that's what Gino's my favorite bet.

He's probably not going to do it. But 45 to 1 is too high. Which Gino Smith are people watching? Like, that just doesn't make any. Like, even if, even I realize me and you are probably higher on Gino Smith. the average person. But even still, that is crazy. Yeah, it's significantly higher. Even still, that is absurd to me. Yeah, 45 to 1 was just too high. I just think that there are too many good players on that offense. I'm too excited to watch that offense. Even if it's a remote

chance, I still think it's better than 45 to 1. Who is your 2024 receiving champion? It might be the same player you picked for offensive player of the year. If you didn't have the same guy, I'd be a little bit suppressed. Not quite actually. I had CD Lamb and the, the How is CD-Land-Bordes to leave the league in receiving and Justin Jefferson is going to be the offensive player of the year? Because like I said, if it's close, I think Justin Jefferson, the narrative is like, if you're doing it with Sam Darnold. I am, I am. I'm kind of, what I'm really doing is not Galaxy Braining. I'm hedging my bets.

Like, one of these will be right. One of them will be right. It's a matter of which one. So I come out of the power's way out. I mean, I also, too, think there's a chance where like, Jefferson just scores a ton of touchdowns. he scores all of their touchdowns, especially with Hawk not playing, and like Jordan Addison is not great in the red zone. So like that is kind of my cope angle here. But I think yardage wise, like it probably will be CD. It's really funny. All right. I had I had CD as well, just because

if I'm picking him to win an offense player of the year and I think he's going to have this monster season, I have to pick him here. Who was your favorite bet for 2024 receiving champ? We talked about him a little bit earlier, but Garrett Wilson. And like I think there's a better chance he does this than like we kind of talked about with, you know, the offensive player of the year. even if he has a great season, there's a chance. Maybe he splits votes with Brits Hall or whatever, but just purely in terms of volume, like you said, like Aaron Rogers is going to throw at his guy. And if some of their other guys are going to be banged up and a lot of young players

and all this stuff, like there's a chance that he just, if he could do a thousand yards twice with Zach Wilson, he can do 4,000 with Aaron Rogers. Like, it's not that, like, it could happen. He's only 15 to 1 to win this. And I actually think picking him to win offense player of the year, 30 to 1 might be a more a fun way to lay down your Garrett Wilson bet if you think he's in line for a monster year. The other one I had who's at 30 to 1 just because I could see it happening if Puka gets dinged up is Cooper Cup. Cooper Cup at 30 to 1 after we've seen them being willing to just funnel volume his way, depending on who else is out there.

That's another one I thought was at least somewhat interesting. It would probably require a Pooka injury for that to happen. That's the thing. It's like insert whichever of the Rams big slot receiver. is healthy. It's just whichever guy. All right, here we go. Let's get to the big one here. Your 2024 MVP is. I'm actually changing mine from what I put in my notes. I'm changing it last second. I think if I've bet so much on the Chiefs and if I think Patrick Mahomes is going to be the passing leader and I think they can win 14, 15 games, even with all the exhaustion we probably

have with Patrick Mahomes, I just think if they have that incredible of this season and all these other teams are kind of in flux, it will probably be Patrick Mahomes. Again, I had a different vote before this, but the more I've thought about it, the more we've gone through this show. Who was the other guy that you had? Josh Allen. I think there's a good chance that it, because it seems like people are too far down on Josh Allen. I think there's a chance if they get back to like top seven, top eight offense, which I think they very well can because he's that good of a quarterback, then he could get almost like a residual from last year, because I think last year we actually recognized that he was kind of in the running and he was the one guy who got a vote that wasn't Lamar Jackson. I think there's a chance

that if Patrick Mahomes doesn't go nuclear this year, that Josh Allen could kind of get the bump and be like, ah, okay, we'll finally give it to him. All right. So here's the problem with that. You need to get a buy. That's why I went to Patrick Mahomes changed. Yeah. Your team needs to be so good for you to win the MVP. Typically, you need to be, it used to be you needed a first round by. If you were one of the first, the top two teams. Now you're obviously only one team gets a buy, but you pretty much have be one of the best two teams in your conference. And I just can I have concerns about the bill's ability to do that, even if they outperform expectations. I just think that they probably have enough holes that can keep them from being like a 13 or 14 wing team. That's that's kind of

why I moved off of it. So I was like there is a chance that he plays like an MVP, which he did last year. Like I think there was a plenty good enough argument for him over Josh Allen. Like I still would have voted Lamar, but I think you could have went either way. And there's a chance that he again, he could do that this year, but maybe they only win 11 games. And like you said, that that's not going to be enough to get them the one seed and get them the super narrative boost that you need to be the first seat and all that stuff. I'm pitching Patrick Mahomes. I tried so hard to fight that urge, but it's like if they're going to be this team, what are we doing? It's really hard to win it two years in a row. It's happened. Rogers won a two years in a row. Peyton Manning's won a two years in a row a couple

different times, even though he had that one year that was like a, he was the co- MVP with Steve McNairerer in 2003. So there's really only been two guys that have won it alone two years in a row over the last like 20 years. It was Peyton Manning in 08 and 09. It was Rogers in 20 and 21. It's hard to do because people do get fatigue. And that's why I wouldn't have picked Mahomes last year, but Mahomes didn't win it last year. So now we're back to a Mahomes year where he is potentially in line to win the MVP. So it's not a hard one. I think that there's a chance he has like a 4,800 yard 45 touchdown season. And even though there's general fatigue with him, Last year did feel like in the general football sphere, we were like, ah, down year for Patrick Mahomes.

If he comes back and goes, you know, 50 touchdowns again, we're like, oh, he's back. And we can actually give him votes again. And it doesn't feel that way. I think that's exactly right. I think people are going to be ready to give it to him again after winning the Super Bowl after what we consider to down year. Who is your favorite bet for MVP? Matthew Stafford, honestly. Like, there's, we talked about, I think we both put him top five for our offenses, the Rams.

If everybody stays healthy, there's a chance that Stafford could throw. 40 plus touchdowns. And this Rams defense is not going to be great. And so if they get to, you know, they probably wouldn't be the first seed in the NFC, which is, you know, kind of makes this bet tricky because you typically do need to be that. But if they're the second or third seed and they somehow kind of steal this division from the Niners and they win 12 games and he's doing it with, again, a defense that's probably going to be average, hey, man, that's a pretty good recipe to win this award.

I have enough concerns about the defense and the ceiling of the defense. and that leading to how many games they could win. And the other thing is, over the second half of last season, they ran the ball a lot. And so I just worry about overall pass volume and what his numbers might look like, even if the efficiency is crazy. And even if he's playing at a really high level again. Him and CJ Stroud, I kind of had that concern about. But then I just thought about it with Stafford.

And I was like, it would just be so cool if he did it that I don't care. I'll put it here. C.J. Stroud is definitely in the conversation. I think he had long enough odds to kind of qualify for something like this. the other one that I had, and I don't think he's going to win it. But if you're trying to play out a story of the season, I had Jared Goff at 22 to 1. Like, let's just say, let's just say the Lions win 14 games. And Patrick Mahomes misses a couple games.

There's just something weird that happens. The Chiefs are worse than we think for whatever reason. And the Lions are just the best team in the league that Jared Goff could just win it by default. And at 22 to 1, I don't think that's the. craziest bet. Again, I don't think this is going to happen, but I think that that's my favorite long shot bet based on how some things could break and how the season could go. So on one hand, I have a hard time imagining anybody voting for Jared Gall. Like it just, he has become a much better and different quarterback, right? But I think we all

kind of have him in our mind outside of that sphere of quarterback that should win MVP's. However, didn't we think that about Brock Purdy last year, though? And if he if he hadn't had that game against the Ravens, there's a chance he probably could have won it. But he's so early in his career that like, I think it's easier to flip the narrative on yourself, whereas like golf has been around for such a long time. I will say, though, his most analogous case is probably Matt Ryan 2016, right? Because I think before that year, a lot of people probably wouldn't have been like, yeah, Matt Ryan can get MVP votes. Like obviously he was a very good quarterback, but probably not in that tier that most people thought would be a guy who could get MVP votes.

And then obviously he orchestrates like the best offense ever. So there is a chance that Jared Goff could do something like that. So yeah, I mean, if they went 13 games and he, it's, I can see it. I can see it. Okay. Jared Goff threw for 4,500 yards last year. So let's just say he has the same season in terms of total yards that he had last year. The Lions scored 57 offensive touchdowns last year.

They said 17 rushing touchdowns. Let's just say they score 60 touchdowns this year. And instead of scoring 27 rushing touchdowns, they score 20. And so he goes from throwing 30 touchdown passes to like 38 touchdown passes. And he again throws for 4,500 yards and the Lions win 14 games. I mean, that is that's not crazy at all. It's on the table. Again, I have such a hard time buying that enough people will give Jared Goughan MVP vote.

But like that timeline is very certainly on the table. They scored 27 points a game last year. What if they get to like 29 and he just throws a few more touchdowns? And the statistical profile is not that hard to imagine. What do you think Matt Ryan's stats were in 2016 in terms of like total touchdowns and yardage? Well, I remember like his the volume wasn't that crazy. It was just that the efficiency was like the greatest thing that we've ever seen was kind of the thing. Okay, so in 2016, Matt Ryan threw for 4,900 yards and 38 touchdowns.

It is easy to picture a world where Jared Goff throws for 4,000 or 4,900 yards and 38 touchdowns. It's not crazy. It's on the table. I like in my head, I've seen enough Jared Goff that it's like hard for me to get there. But it is on the table. Like if this offensive line stays healthy and Ben Johnson's been there. Like that's kind of the other thing is it's the same offensive play calling that he's had for three years now. So like another year of really settling into things.

It's on the table. Again, I'm having a hard time of convincing myself, but it's on the table. I'm willing to say that. And again, if the Lions are kind of like one of those teams that just dominates the season and we get to Thanksgiving and they're playing on a national prime time game. And we just get to that like preseason announcers bat or like pitter, patter back and forth. It's like, you know, Jared Goff, Jim. Jared Goff, just he's really embodied the transfer. that this Lions team has undergone over the last few years.

Like what an incredible redemption story. Jared Goff is to go along with the rest of this franchise with the city. It just, I can see it. I can see a path for it happening, even if I think it is not that strong of a possibility. Let's get to our playoff teams here. You're and it, let's, we're just going to go division by division here and then we'll do the wildcard teams after that. NFC North.

Who do you have one in the NFC North? I mean, I think we've given half their staff. and players like an award at this point so i'm going to go to detroit lions i also am going to go with the detroit lions and fc south uh they kind of win it by default to the atlanta falcons they just you know i actually have still a lot of question marks for this team like it seems like people have just super penciled it in i still have some question marks but i'll i'll give it to them were you tempted to give it to anybody else if you had to pick one of those other teams do you think either one is close where you considered it like i actually do think

that there is a chance that any of not the Panthers could win this division. Like I think it is entirely possible that we just get back to a spot where a nine win team wins the division again. And all three of those, I mean, the bucks are going to be probably the same team. The Saints, if they're mildly better get there. And then a Falcons, like I said, some people think they can win 10, 11 games. I probably have a little more questions than that. I definitely do too. When I was doing my kind of other teams that I wasn't going to mention, I said anyone could probably win the NFC South. And I think anyone not the Panthers. So I think it's probably worth mentioning. I also had the Falcons, but I don't necessarily feel super great about it.

Who did you have winning the NFC East? I went with Dallas. I still have questions about both of these teams, both, you know, them and Philly. I've got a lot of questions, but if I'm going to come down to two teams where I have a ton of question marks and coaching changes, I'll just ride with the quarterback I think is better. And I think that's Zach Prescott. I pick the Eagles, but I don't feel good about it. I mean, I don't feel good about Dallas. So like, it's just a talent bet. Like, that's all this. is. I just look at the Eagles roster and I don't think that they're not, I didn't pick him to be a top 10 offense. I didn't pick him to be a top 10 defense. I think they're probably going to hang out just outside of that. But if they're the 11th best offense in the league and the defense is average, in this NFC East, there's a chance that that 10 and seven Eagles team just wins the division. That's not hard for me to picture. So I picked them, but I didn't necessarily feel great about it. But I just think that some of the concerns about Dallas with the talent that they have at certain positions, even if, you know, Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe looked good. in the regular season. You have two rookies starting along the offensive line. We have concerns

about the past catching options. They have a new defensive court in or new defensive system. Duran Bland is already hurt. They're already chipping away at some of those depth issues that we already knew we're going to be a problem heading into the season. They don't have that third corner. They can just turn to like they have in years past. I just think there are so many more questions about this Cowboys roster than there have been over the last couple of years. I'm just going to bet on the talent that Philly has top to bottom and the depth that they have at so many different spots. I think the ceiling is certainly higher for Philly. Like there's a greater chance that the Eagles win 13, 14 games. Like if everything falls into line, whereas like with Dallas, I think 10 or 11 is like

kind of right where they're at and like maybe the floor is nine. Because again, I think with that Prescott, the floor is only so low, but the ceiling is just a lot lower. But still I still want with them anyway. NFC West. Would you have one in the NFC West? Boring, but the San Francisco 49ers, still the best offense in the league what can you say yeah i did too i mean they're going to get all those guys back even if we have some concerns and you know some holes and some just again shipping away the talent on defense it's still hard for me to pick anybody else your nfc wild card teams just give me all three just who are your nfc wild card teams yeah i went with green bay philly and the rams i also had green bay and the rams my third one is seattle that was my first

out. I don't think this is crazy. That was my first out. I know it's hard to do two, three teams in one division just because they're going to beat each other up, but we saw it last year in the AFC North. I just think that the Cocks have a chance to surprise some people, and there are enough questions for me about some of those talent issues for Dallas and the changeover from Mike Zimmer and what that's going to look like. I just, there's a chance that Cowboys win 11 games. They just walk right into the playoff skin that wouldn't necessarily surprise me. But I also think that there's a chance they take a pretty big step back this year. And I, there's just something about what the Seahawks have cooking on both sides of the ball that I find intriguing.

So just a fun pick. Like it just I would rather root for the Seahawks to make the playoffs this year. The imagining the world of like what it looks like where Seattle makes the playoffs versus like a Dallas wild card. Like at least in my where I have Dallas winning the division, that's probably a little bit more fun if they're good. But like a Dallas wild card team probably doesn't look that fun. Like they're barely scraping it. It's so exciting. It's so not fun for like there's this limping Dallas team to win 10 games. a year and 10 games again and for us to be completely unexcited about what they look like by the end of the season.

And for Seattle would just be the exact opposite. Like the offense is exciting. If Mike McDonald does this thing on the other side of the ball. So I went to see Oaks, the Rams and the Packers is my three wildcard teams. Who would kind of just missed it for you other than Seattle? Anybody else you wanted to mention? Like the Bears, I think. Yeah, the Bears are the other team I wanted.

Yeah, like I think there's definitely a chance. That is probably it for me. And then again, like, I mean, I guess the Saints of the But that would be more like winning a bad division, not getting into the wild card. So it's like they're just in a weird spot. But it's probably just to me, Seattle and Chicago. That's the exact kind of list that I had and the exact reasoning that I had. So I think they were on the same page there. Let's get to the AFC.

Who is your AFC North winner for 2024? I'm still going with Baltimore. You know, I know they've lost their defensive coordinator and like a couple of holes on the offensive line. But like they still brought back most of their stars and a two-time MVP. I'm with you. I think that the Ravens, even after losing a couple of guys on defense, and they still have a chance to be really good. I'm excited for what this offense looks like in year two, you know, with Manken and Lamar. I think that there's a chance to take another step, even with some of the offensive flying concerns. And there's some things about the Bengals that I just,

I don't know about, man. Like the Jamar Chase thing just gives me a little bit of pause and what is their defense going to look like? We've talked about the run defense, just some of the personnel concerns we have up front. I think that there's a chance that the Ravens are just a more complete team heading. into the year and that's why I give them a slight edge. AFC South, who'd you have? Boring, but Houston Texans. Same. Yeah, yeah, the conversations we've had about all of those guys and, you know, what their season could look like earlier in the show. I think it'd be impossible not to pick them to win the division. So I also have the Houston Texans. Yeah, it's like Detroit. If we're going to

give half their staff and half their roster awards or at least throw them in there, probably should say they're going to win their division. AFC East. Who'd you have? Like, this was also another. other tough one, like almost the reverse NFC South where everyone is kind of so bad that like somebody's going to stumble into winning it. This division is kind of so that has three really good teams that makes it difficult. I still just went with Buffalo, man. Like if it's going to be that tight, I'm still going to lean on Josh Allen. That's kind of how I felt to. Did you, I mean, you can, we can spoil this. Did you have the Jets and the Dolph is making the playoffs though? I have one of them making the playoffs. I have the Jetson. I have both of them. So I think those

three teams are just going to be right there neck and neck throughout the entire season. But I just want to see it from somebody else before I pick a team that's not Buffalo. And before I pick a quarterback, that's not Josh Allen. So I also had the bills. And I assume that you have the Chiefs winning the AFC West. Yeah, same reasoning. I need to see it from somebody else. And I mean, they got Andy Reid and Patrick. So we went shock with the four AFC divisions, which is totally fine. We have the same four teams. Your three wildcard teams, the Jets are one of them. Who else did you have? Yep, the Jets. The Bengals, which I feel weird. about just because, you know, Burroughs health, the Chase thing, the defense, but I still think

if Chase is out there and if Burrow is mostly healthy, this team probably still wins double digit games and they'll get there. And then my other one was they also have a very easy schedule. And I think the ceiling on offense is still extremely high. So I had the Bengals as one of mine as well. That's the thing. Even if the defense is mid, there's a chance they score 27 points a game. So it's like whatever. And then my other one, I actually had a really hard time with this. And so I kind of just, again, went with the most fun one because I think there were five different teams I could pick. I went with the Jacksonville Jaguards, man. I need it to happen so bad. I don't hate this at all. So my three were the Jets, the Bengals, and the dolphins. But I had four teams that I listed that I was

like, all right, I could just throw one of these teams in here and be totally fine. The Jags are the first team that I listed. Because if they're deep, if Ryan Nielsen can get that defense to like an average place. And we think that the circumstances around Lawrence are improved from last year. The running game infrastructure. They turn the ball over less. They're less of an absolute clown show in the red zone. It can't be worse. It can't be worse. Again, that's the tagline for the 2024 Jaggs. We said this. I think it was on the AFC South show. The 2024 Jaguars can't be worse. And so there, there is a path for them to win like nine, 10 games to potentially sneak into the wild card. I would 100% acknowledge that. So they were a team I wanted to throw in there. I think the

Browns are going to be good enough on defense. If their offense can just be average, can they be in that nine and ten win range. I think the answer is yes. The Colts, if it all comes together for them offensively, I think they're absolutely going to be in that discussion. And I also had the Titans. Like, I think that there is a chance that Titans are just a competent team on both sides of the ball. And if they get a couple lucky breaks, they could be right there in that Jags, Colts, you know, nine-ish wins. I don't think it's as likely as the other three teams, but I at least want to throw out the possibility of that happening. My other one in that tier was like the Raiders, where it's like there's a chance if they get the quarterback play, the defense jumps like it's possible.

What I want to pose here is, so when you went through the NFC teams and like the teams that are left out, like Chicago, Seattle and all that stuff, it didn't feel to me in the NFC that the teams I was leaving out. It was like, man, if they're out, it's just a nightmare scenario for them. Whereas like with the AFC, all the teams that were on the fringe, if they don't get in, it feels like nightmare scenario. Like Miami, I think you have a really big discussion if they're out. like Cleveland huge discussion. Maybe not the Colts so much, but like let's say the Colts get in and the Jaguars don't. They're kind of in a nightmare scenario.

So it's like all the fringe teams in the AFC just felt like this could be really bad if they don't get it. The Colts are young enough where it'd be like, okay, it didn't happen for us this year, but we have a young core for the most part we're building towards something. The Jags, I think, Jags are kind of similar, right? Like the Jags haven't made all these all in bets this year. I think the security of the coaching staff would be a conversation. That's kind of what I mean. Yeah.

Yeah, I think that's absolutely on the table. The Browns, I don't think that they're really in danger. You have a guy coming off of a coach of his second coach of the year when they just got contract extensions this off season. I think we could probably have a really serious conversation about the realistic path forward for the Browns with Deshaun Watson's contract. If they end up plateauing this year and don't get there. But I don't think anyone's really in danger of losing job. in Cleveland unless there's like an out-and-out disaster of the season. I guess that's actually the better way to frame it is that for all these AFC teams that if they

don't make it, other than basically the Colts, it feels like head coach or quarterback, there's got to be a huge discussion. It's like it's a what now sort of the place that you. Right. Yeah. Right. Whereas like with Seattle, if they don't make it okay. It's your one.

Yeah, you'd see your one. Like whatever. As long as everything looks okay and you're on the right track. same thing with Chicago. Like this is year one of Caleb Williams. You don't have to make the playoffs immediately. It's not a big deal. I would say the team in that conversation for me in the NFC would be Philly.

Like if the Eagles don't make the play. Yeah, Philly or Dallas, whichever one of those two teams doesn't make the playoffs. If one of them doesn't, I think there's probably a pretty bad conversation that has to happen at the end of the year. I don't think that's the case for really any of these other teams. Maybe the Saints, like if the Saints finish with like a seven win,

The Saints go 7 and 10. That's probably it for Dennis Allen. But I think that that's probably more predictable than a 7 and 10 season for either the Eagles or the Cowboys or even like a 9 and 8 season for either of those teams. I think that's the thing is. I already feel more milk toast about where New Orleans is anyway. So that I'm just like that. Oh, you mean the most milk toast team in the league?

You don't feel particularly enthused about the New Orleans Saints. Yeah, not too excited about where they do or don't end up at the end of the year. All right. Here's the big one. What is your Super Bowl? I mean, it feels boring to go chalk, but if we're going to say the chiefs can, you know, their quarterback's going to win MVP and they're going to win 15 games. They're going to be the first seat, all this stuff.

I'm just going to pick the chiefs for the AFC. And I'm going to pick them beating the Packers. I actually think I didn't pick the Packers to win their division. But I think there's a chance that when you have this young team where they can kind of rev up a little bit in the playoffs and you have this quarterback who has this electric ability where he could potentially catch fire, that's kind of a team that I think could be really. scary. I like that one. I totally get that. I'm going with the Lions to come out of the NFC, just because I do think that there's a chance they finish with the number one seed. And if they get to play inside throughout the playoffs and you have to go play them indoors where Jared Gough is really good, where that offense can absolutely roll, I think that's a scary proposition. So I have

the Lions coming out of the NFC. I have the Chiefs coming out of the AFC. I was tempted to pick the Texans just because, again, I think it's just so hard to get back to the game, even three years in row. You need so many breaks, but I think the chiefs are absolutely positioned to be in that spot again, just based on the strength of their roster. Typically, when you have teams that are doing this, they're losing a lot of key pieces. Like, there's just attrition to these rosters. And for the part, that just isn't happening with Kansas City outside of Lageria Sneed. I think that you could argue this team is better than they've been over the last couple years. All right. So here's the problem is that I think the same thing. Like, if I'm going to put them in the game, I should just

pick them to win, but I just think it's boring to pick them to win. And again, it's so, so, so hard to win three in a row. I went with the Lions. It's probably weird to say because it's hard for me to imagine right now, a game where the Lions beat the Chiefs on a neutral field, just like the Spagnol effect against Jared Gough. I know they did in the opener last year, but Chris Jones didn't play. It's the beginning of the season. The Chiefs are folding in like 20 different guys on offense, whatever. Somebody's going to be like, you can't imagine the Chiefs, or the Lions being the Chiefs, they did it last year. Okay.

Right. It's different in the big game. Come on. Yeah, it's everybody calm down. But I just, I don't know. I'm just tempted to pick something a little bit different. And if I'm going to pick the Lions to get there, I think it's just fun to pick them to win it. So I'm going to go with the Lions over the Chiefs.

I never feel good about most of these predictions. I think it's part of it is a little bit silly. It's never my favorite part of the preseason part of the show. But we're going to do it. And that's what I'm going to go with. I'm going to go with the Lions over the Chiefs. It is more fun to have the Lions winning. And here's what I'll say.

Yeah, if I'm torn, like, I'm probably going to go with the fun one every single time. And here's what I'll say. The AFC, it feels like typically the best quarterback is just the one that comes out. Like, it was three years of Tom Brady and then it's basically been Patrick Mahomes since then, except for one year of Joe Burrow, whereas the NFC typically feels like the best team comes out of it. And I think there is a very good argument that it's the Lions. I was just trying to find what is a team I feel really good about and also has a quarterback who could catch fire and that's kind of why I went with the Packers.

I totally get that. And I guess it's harder to imagine Jared Goff having those moments where he's carrying a team through the playoffs. But if we just think that the Lions' offensive machine is going to be good enough, especially in my case, just playing at home throughout the playoffs, it is not hard for me to imagine carving their path there. All right. That's all we got. That is our 2024 season long prediction in the books. This would be coming out on Wednesday. If you guys have not heard me, Eric, Mike Sando, 6 p.m. Central Time at no other pub in Kansas City on Thursday. We have a live watch party for Ravens Chiefs. We will be at the bar. We will be up talking NFL preview stuff,

quarterback tiers. So if you're in town, if you're looking for something to do, if you live in Kansas City, highly encourage you guys to come by. We would love to see it. We would love to say hello. We would appreciate the support. So definitely come out, spend the time with us. We're really looking forward to the game and we're really looking forward to seeing your faces. for now, that is all we've got. We've got a couple more nights before we actually kick this thing off. I am so very ready for now. Really appreciate you guys listening.

We'll talk to you soon.