The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Power ranking the NFC QB situations—and what that means for 2023

Episode Date: May 10, 2023

The AFC has Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson. The NFC has Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and...Kirk Cousins? Geno Smith? Matthew Stafford? Derek Carr? Justin Fields? No matter how you look at it, massive imbalance in quarterback quality exists between the two conferences. Robert Mays and Nate Tice discuss what that means for the NFC in the short and long term on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube4:09 Eagles and Cowboys at the top13:00 Number three and beyond46:29 Team outlooks that diverge from the QB situation51:55 QBs who could climb way up, or slide way down, these rankings by the end of 2023 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome. It's the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing great.

This is a fun discussion today that I'm excited to dive right into. But overall, even before the discussion, I am doing very, very well. On a great workout kick, by the way, you'd be very proud of it. Yeah, when you see yourself on camera for nine straight hours and you start looking at your jowls from the side angle, you start really that. That workout cardio streak really gets an uptick. And that's what happened to me after checking myself out on YouTube for a couple hours. Well, you'll be happy to know that I pushed my final wedding suit fitting back a week. I was like, you know, I was like, you know, I need a little bit more of a buffer between the Kansas City trip and fitting back into that.

That's the actual reason is that I forgot our final, then you walk through was last Friday. I like the other one booked, but I'm still taking the extra week. So I feel pretty good about that, even though what? Did you do a wake in check? after Kansas City. Mine was seven pounds. Yeah, mine was probably in that range. I was probably in that range. I think it was like 180 when we left. I was probably like 187 when we got home. That sounds right. Yeah. Yeah. I was 231 when I left 238 when I got back and I have it. Yeah. My goal is 225. So it's we got a long way to go. My first checkpoint's your wedding. Then the second

checkpoints in our first week of July at my cousin's wedding. And then the third checkpoint will be like, okay, after, you know, paternity leave ends in July. Then we'll then we'll see where we're at because I have no excuses to not get in shape this summer. It's a constant battle against the barbecue. That's where we're at right now. All right, here's what we're doing today. Okay? We've alluded to this, I don't know, 100 times on the show over the last couple of months.

It's this idea of where the NFC hierarchy sits right now. We thought about a few different ways to tackle this, and I think the most illustrative way, is to look at the quarterback outlooks for all the NFC teams and loosely rank them as a way to kind of think about where the conference is as a whole. A few ground rules, because the moment I threw a little bit of red meat out onto the Twitter world, people are just already being like, well, what about this guy? Okay, all right, okay. Here's how we're going to rank these.

These are three-year outlooks, okay? So it's not just 2023. What is the three-year quarterback outlook for every single one of these franchises and the ranking associated with them? some of these are going to be lower than our expectations for those teams are over those three years. We will talk about that. And we're going to use these rankings as kind of a springboard to discuss the nature of the NFC. So that is what we are going to do today.

First thing I'll say, this is hard as shit. It was so hard. This was so hard. After the first couple, as Kyle threw my hands up, we'll get there pretty quickly. I try to be pretty like Roberts pretty you know really good with the detailing out and Bell are our producer really good detailing out what we're talking about and laying it all out for me on Slack and I'm on West Coast time. So I always kind of get to it like after they've already like finalized what we're talking

about. I'll have maybe one little thing like, hey, can we talk about this or that? But usually pretty good. I can just go. Okay, cool. That's the course we're going on. I could do that. Not today.

Today I had questions. I had I had. I was like, wait, this is not hitting my brain right now because this was really, really freaking hard and I had to make it as little fat as possible to try and make it make sense in my brain. But it was fun to do, but it was terrified to lay out these rankings because it's going to be interesting. Also, remember, situations is a part of this. This is not just saying, oh, this quarterback is this. This is everything encompassing. That's how I looked at this. So I also want to throw that detail out there just because I looked at your Twitter. We'll talk about it a little

bit. I think it's about extricating the quarterback from the situation as well at times. And we'll discuss some examples of that. And the biggest reason we're doing this is we're contrasting with the AFC. We don't really have to do this exercise for the AFC because you can get to 10 quarterbacks and you can talk about where those guys deserve to be and who should be in the top three and all of that. So I think this is a way to illustrate and discuss how wide open the NFC is. And I think this is the best way that we could get into it. So let's kick off the rankings. Who is number one for you in your NFC quarterback outlook rankings over the next three years?

So I don't think this will be a huge surprise who I'm starting off with number one. And anyone that's ever listened to this show, even one of our first ranking shows we ever did doing quarterbacks in their contracts. I'm going with Dak Prescott with the Cowboys. He's under contract for two more years this year and one more. And that kind of, okay, now we're already getting to interesting territory here as for the parameters of this show. But I'm not saying Dak is even a top four or five quarterback in the league. That's the thing about this discussion. that's where the NFC sits right now.

But if I look at this rankings right now in May, Dak is my quarterback one. Just for what he brings to the table, what he is. I know what he is like as a player. I don't think there's any questions about his ability. And I think he's going to have a pretty good situation this year. I think some of the better weapons he's had in the last couple seasons. As far as everybody, you know, Brandon Cooks,

I really think is going to unlock a lot with that offense. I feel pretty good about the O line. Of course, with Tyrant Smith being healthy, that's going to be always the caveat. But I'm excited to watch DAC this year with a little bit more injection of weapons around him and maybe a more clear picture as far as the offense. Do you have the Eagles and Jalen Hertz at two? Yes. Okay.

So do I. Okay. So here I had those two kind of in a little tier of their own. And we'll just, we'll explain why. Here's the reason I had J. One Hertz at one and Dak Prescott at two. The cost control over the next three years with J.1. Hertz and the certainty of what he's going to cost over that time.

I just think that means the outlook and situation around the Eagles quarterback room is just a little bit more favorable than it is for Dak Prescott on the Cowboys, right? Totally understand. Jalen Hertz's contract is weird, and we should have known that from the moment that he signed it that we couldn't talk about it until all of the details were out. Essentially. Have we haven't talked about it yet? Like, yeah, let's dive into it. Well, so if you look at the next three years specifically, right? His cap hits are $6.1 million, $13.6 million and $22 million.

And people might ask, how could you possibly do that after setting the new record for AAV in the history of the NFL? The answer is, I think on a crude level, the level to which I understand it, the Eagles have built in the restructures that other teams would typically do anyway into the actual structure of the contract. So what happens is they have option bonuses later in the deal that as they kick in and then they exercise them, they will prorate over the life of the deal, which is, essentially what happens when teams decide to convert a quarterback's base salary or any player's base salary into a signing bonus. So instead of having big base salaries and big roster bonuses like some other quarterbacks do, Patrick Mahomes is a very good example of this, the base salaries in J.1 Hertz's deal, are all $1.4 million or less. So what they've done is they've essentially built the restructures in and kept the base, the actual cap hits low in the first few years. of course those are going to go way, way, way up. In 2028, when you've exercised five more option bonuses and pro-rated that number five times onto that salary, it's going to be like $75 million.

He's never going to play on that. They'll restructure before they do that the same way you do with a quarterback that you restructure as you go. But that being said, over the next three years, he still is going to make a combined $41.7 million against the cap, okay? that is less than Daniel Jones will make against the cap in 2024 alone the next three years for J-1 Hertz. That's actually pretty funny. So I think that number and again, the certainty and the cost certainty and the team-building flexibility they have around him combined with what we've seen from J-1-Hertz and the progression and the development from J-1-Herts, that's why I'm giving them the slight edge. I think that will be the Cowboys quarterback for the next three years, but we're looking at 27 this year, 59 next year and then he's a free agent.

So they're going to have to pay out like a good chunk of change at some point here in order to keep him. There's just a tiny bit less certainty. I think that as a quarterback, I'd still rather have DAC over Jaylen Hertz, even if it's gotten a lot closer than it was before. That's that like if you said this a year ago, you back, say like we just knew, if we were talking about J1 Hertz and Dak Prescott a year ago, really? We're even putting him in the same tier.

But the cause, the fact that that gap has gotten so much smaller and what you're saying about with the contract, even for me with Dak. he's only wrapped up for two more years and it always goes up. Every new contract goes up. So that third year, they could probably manipulate it to be low, like when he signed the New Deal's $17 million, just over $17 million cap hit on his first year of the new deal. So it's like, okay, they can maybe fudge that third year number.

But still, it's going to be some math in there. There's going to be some funkiness with there. So I like what you're talking about. The certainty of it kind of takes that away or like eases that gap, I would say. But yeah, I have the Eagles number two and Jill and Hurts number two, just for all the reasons you laid out. And if we were just doing all-encompassing situations, I think he has a pretty damn conducive situation for more success, considering who they have under contract as far as past catchers and succession plan on offensive line. And having Jeff Stoutland as your own line coach really

helps out a lot, eases any transition concerns that you might have there. Yeah, I think the situation combined with the quarterback specifically, there's really no comparison to any of the other teams in the NFC. So I think that's the best one. And people are going to be screaming at their computer. about Dak Prescott. I feel like we've just gotten brain poisoned as like a football watching public about Dak Prescott. Over the last three years, okay, the last three seasons, 2021, 22. Here is the rankings NFL wide and EPA per dropback.

Patrick Mahomes is one. Josh Allen is two. Aaron Rogers is three. Jimmy Purdy is four and five. That's what I'm going to, I'm just going to put them into one person, okay? And Dak is six. He's six. Yeah.

Last year he was, I know he threw a lot of interceptions last year. He was 13th and turn over where they played on that. It's just, if you watch all the picks too, like half of them were like goofy tip things and like weird bonkers interceptions. So like, I can't believe people keep like talking about that. If you want to say that DAC is the 10th best quarterback in the league, the 12th best quarterback in the league, you consider all the AFC guys too. That's fine. I, I, that's the ranking that you want to throw out there. I'm totally comfortable with that.

But in the NFC, I still think he has the longest and best track record combined with the current outlook. What he's done and what he will likely do over the next three years, which is the time period we're considering here. He's 30 years old. He's on a contract for two of those years. I assume he'll be back with the Cowboys for the third year. I still think that combination puts him number two on this list, not any further down than that. Yeah. Yeah, I consider him.

I think we did our QB draft episode last year, and I drafted him like eighth or ninth. And I think that's exactly where he is. and especially with this contract, now it's actually pretty friendly overall. If you just look at all the deals, we're comparing him and hurts. But to say overall, it's for what his play is,

it's not too bad with everybody else getting these new deals. And of course, again, he's going to get one in a couple of years. But I'm glad he brought up over time. Like that, what is his ranking is QBR, EPA play, success rate.

And like last year, doing a little bit more creation stuff, that he kind of tapped in early in his career, got away from it. And now it's come back to, damn good player. I know I'm just a caricature of myself just praising Dak all the time. But he is a good player.

It's kind of, it is going to know eggs sometimes up here. He's barely even average. They got to bench him. They got to find a new quarterback in the future. It's like, come on, guys. It's somewhere in the middle. That's exactly how it always ends up. I think he could be pretty good this year.

Because I do think that the receiving core and I think the offensive line, I think they're in a position where Mike McCarthy notwithstanding and the new play caller, that being the main question, I still think that they could be pretty good this year just based on the players. have on the field. It's the best I felt about their offensive line in a couple of years. And the past catchers. And the past catchers. It's the best situation he's had. Even with Zee

gone, but if Tyrant Smith is healthy, that's always the if. But at least they have other starters that are tangible. Tiber Biotish had his best season last year. You got alternate pro bowler. Terrence Steele, you know, keeps coming along at right tackle. I love Tyler Smith. He's the left guard this year, but it's probably going to be the left

tackle of the future. And that's a nice little group right there. And then the past catchers, and then I have this guy named Zach Martin, who just keeps playing at a high level, which is pretty nice situation for him. So interesting to see this year with the Cowboys. Okay. Okay, here we go.

We've done one and two. Now we can go a bunch of different directions. It gets pretty weird at this point, which is why we're doing this, because the middle is so naughty. And this isn't even in the middle. This is like close to the top. It's incredibly murky.

So who is number three on this list for you? I can't believe what I'm saying this. I'm going to say Gino Smith is number three for me. And I, guys, everyone that listened to this, anyone that gasps, I'm gasping with you. I can't believe those words just came out of my mouth. I just like the situation he's in. His contract is pretty team friendly. It really is.

It's under deal for three years. So it was perfect for this discussion that we're doing. Just a situation that he's in. I like the offense of coroner and Shane Waldroner. And I just like the whole makeup of that Seahawks offense. I'm very, very optimistic about, especially this year and next year. And then getting into that third year with their pass catchers, the offensive alignment they drafted, Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, the running backs,

kind of a choose your adventure at tight end, but we'll talk about them later. But I just think, Gino, yo, this was a top 10 passing offense last year. They're eighth and passing DVOA, fourth and success rate, kind of more middle, like 12th, 16th-ish and like EPA per drop back and explosive play rate. off in the second half of the season. They were really rolling early on. But even over the in the aggregate, it's still, the numbers are still pretty good. Yeah.

So top 10ish, I would say offense. And I actually think that this passing game will be top six, seven with the addition of JSN, just another year of cohesion, everybody together. So optimistic about Gino this year and next year. Am I saying that I would want him to build my whole team around day one? No. But for this situation that MC is in, I like where Gino's at. I like where the Cocks are at.

So going with them at the three spot, which I just cannot believe at the beginning of this exercise, which was not been my answer, but it is right now. I had the C-Ox at 5. Okay. So I'm not very far off from that. And it's for a lot of the reasons that you said. You look at Gino's contract, $10,031,000, $33.7 million over the next three years. Absolutely live with that if he's the player that he was last year. Yes.

And if he's not, then they have the ability to move on and pivot if they need to. How they can find the next quarterback, I think, is a real question because I think they're going to be pretty good. this year and this might have been the best chance picking in the top five the three of the guys were gone. So I still feel pretty good about Gino again in comparison to a lot of the other teams on this list. I had the Saints at three. Wow. And it's because of just track record. Like Derrick Carr has been solid for a very long time. And so that's why I had them at three. I don't feel great about it. You could have them at six, seven with a couple of the other teams that we're going to talk about. But he's still only 32. So you're getting the age.

is 32, 33, and 34 seasons for Derek Carr here. It's a $7.2 million cap at this year, $35.7 next year, 45.7 in year three. And Derrick Carr has floated around like the 14th to 16th best quarterback in the league. And Corey, it's like every single metric that you're going to look at. So I just feel like the financial commitment they've made to him, how old he is, we're going to get three seasons of Derrick Carr. And even if it's average quarterback play to slightly above average quarterback play over that stretch, you look at all the other teams on this list, that's pretty good.

Like, you'll take that. And with Gino, the reason that Gino is five for me and the team at four is, it's a little bit more complicated. So essentially the Saints and the Seahawks were in very similar situations for me. We just have more history with Derrick R doing it. Like, we got one year of Gino. And they're still part of me that's like, even if I'm optimistic about what he can be and the pieces that they have around him and the position that they put him in, I'm still a little bit worried that this is going to be a flash in the pan thing. And with Derek Carr, even if we know what his floor is. We know what his floor is.

Even if we know what Derek Carr is. And even if that is a slightly underwhelming knowledge, we sleep, at least we know. At least we have an idea of what he is year and year out, which you know, there's just like that tinge of doubt because we haven't seen him for the way so totally get it. Totally get it. I had Derek in that situation the fifth. So we just flipped them. We more or less flipped them. Yeah.

And that is kind of, I'll just give my points here. I, it was one, I actually had pretty low to start. And as I worked through it, I was like, it's Derek, you know, we know what you're getting. It's just like what, the worst you're going to get out Derek Carr is what, 18th best quarterback? That's like the worst. That's not right. Yep.

And then the ceiling's what? The eighth best, you know, maybe 10th in a good situation. So it's like, that's Derek Carr. And that makes sense. He's that kind of quarterback that's that ground where you're just trying to, depending on the situation. But you know what he brings the table. He's going to be smart.

He's going to throw, he can make all the throws when he's, you. you know, push to do that. I think this offense will be good for him and what his strengths are as far as more under center, when him kind of manipulate things be very cerebral that I think he can be at the quarterback position. So everything you just laid out, it's kind of a, he's a sure thing. And of that tier, and a lot of these quarterbacks are not sure things. And that proven history kind of gives you that high floor or what, knowing what the floor is

is not the worst thing in the world, especially what the saints are. You know, this is how their team makeup is makes a lot of sense for having a Derrick car. over the last four seasons, Derek Carr ranks 15th, an EPA per dropback among quarterbacks with at least 500 passes. God. 15, okay? So just like, that's exactly it.

Your eye, it matches what you want. The expectations are right there, okay? And there are guys on this list that have since retired, you know, so if you're looking at it's like 12 to 16 somewhere in there most likely. So that's where I'm at. So I had the Saints at 3. At 4, between the Saints and the Seahawks,

I had Rams question mark Because I just don't know what to do We're not that far removed From Matthew Stafford being the sort of quarterback Who could lift his team To a Super Bowl That was a few games stretch But there were long swats

Of that 2021 season Where that was the most efficient Most explosive passing offense in the NFL And he was a huge part of that There was no bells and whistles there We're getting it empty. We're dropping back and we're slinging this thing around. They put a ton on his shoulders and the result was one of the best offenses in the NFL and an offense that for stretches of time could be the most dangerous unit on the field.

And the question is there are several questions. He is 35 years old. He has been banged up consistently. He missed a huge chunk of last season. Is this the last year we're going to get from Matthew Stafford? So all of those questions, I think, are completely legitimate. bit, but if he does play two, three more years and he plays even moderately close to what he can be, then he's absolutely worthy of being in the top five of this conversation.

Oh, yeah. But so I just didn't know what to do. That, uh, I hate that we do this sometimes. I had the same ranking. And I, I hate, I hate us sometimes. I hate it. I really do. I, I have the ellipsies in the question mark, though.

Huh? I would dot, dot, dot, dot. What's the, what's the official term for that? Dot, dot, dot, dot. Lipsies. I also had that, I put a question mark. Okay, I just went dot, dot, dot. Yeah.

And yeah, everything you laid out, we got to remember how freaking awesome Stafford was two years ago. And he was still kind of sort of like that until the elbow stuff was cropping up. And you could tell his throne style was changing a little bit, which is really funny, by the way, that they were saying, oh, he's fine, he's fine, he's fine. And then like a month ago, like, you see, they announced they're like, yeah, he's actually 100% now. It's like, you guys said he was 100% last year.

I love that. I love that. But no, it's, it's the perception is the reality type of thing. But it's everything you laid out with Stafford. You got to remember the high end play. He doesn't rely on his legs. So there's not that drop off as far as athleticism. Because his game has been that true pocket passer for better for worse.

And you got to remember just how they like you said, how they laid it out. No, I've never seen a quarterback better against the Blitz than Stafford two years ago. Just kind of how they play that empty stuff. And they're just gashing everybody. It was awesome. So right there with you. It was too hard. I couldn't, even if I don't think this might be Stafford's last year, even if with that

fact in my mind or that potential fact in my mind, I still look at Stafford. I'm like, yeah, he's still damn good though. So it's really, if he does play two more years, I still think it's going to be pretty damn good play. So right there with you. That's right where I had Stafford. Of course I did because we just can't help ourselves. All right.

So one of the questions that I wanted to throw out as you went through this ranking is where the heater line exists. Let me describe what the heater line is. On our mailback show earlier this week, we talked about some of the teams who have won Super Bulls without elite quarterbacks, truly elite year after year MVP candidate quarterbacks. And one of the ways that you can break through with one of those teams is that you can have a quarterback who is otherwise not great all the time go on an absolute fucking heater when the playoffs start.

Stafford is a good example of that. He's already done it. Is this where your heater line is or does it go a little bit lower for you? The team that if that quarterback gets hot in this version of the NFC, this team could at least go to the Super Bowl. I don't think the Rams are there close. But as a quarterback, yeah. Yeah, the Rams probably aren't in that situation. Yeah, but car, yeah.

Hold on. I'm just trying to look for who else we got. That's kind of it. There's going to be one guy that I have lower on the quarterback. It's kind of a weird situation. It's the situation might be conducive for him getting onto that heater. So we'll talk about when he comes up, I'll talk about him as far as him being at the quarterback heater line,

even if some of the quarterbacks are better than him, the situations might be worse. All right. So this next team for me at six, I would sneak them in just above the heater line, like just ahead of it. The Folls Flacco line is also what we're calling. The Folls Flacko line.

Yes. It is the fullest flacco line. Okay. I'm throwing this next team, this next quarterback. just ahead of it, in part because I do have a lot of confidence in the situation and everything around him. So at six, I have the Lions. Okay. And that's exactly who I was talking about. I was sharing a little bit lower? I do. Okay. I know. So I have them at six. And we'll talk about

some of the reasons that the couple teams are a little bit below than them. I haven't met at eight. So, so right in that same range. And I assume that maybe we flipped these teams again. So I have them at six. Jared Gough has two years left on his deal at about $30 million per year. They have that head and hooker kind of backup plan potentially if they need it. So they're a little bit different than even the Seahawks are because the Seahawks didn't draft that quarterback. They could do it next year. I mean, they have plenty of options to do it for the next three years. But I just think that the way that Jared Gough has played and what they ask him to be,

that's a pretty good situation over the next couple years at $30 million per year. They can move on if they need to. but they're tied into a quarterback who has been good enough to kind of keep them afloat and keep them on pace to where they want to go. So that's why I had them at six, but this was not an easy one. I originally had them a little bit lower, but I just have some bigger questions about teams lower than this. And just the amount of time we might see some of these guys that are one or two slots lower than this. And golf is the perfect example of, I actually think, you know, this is the high end golf is you see him. Like even last year, I believe he was kind of in this ranking in a lot of advanced metrics.

is about the sixth, seventh, eighth, best quarterback when he, like, when everything's perfect around him. But I, I, this is kind of like a perfect player to talk about the difference between the quarterback and the quarterback situation. And, and I like golf and I think eighth is exactly how I view him as the quarterback in the NFC, but I think his situation is more, shoot, you can even argue for third best or fourth best as far as everything that happens around him. And that's why this, like you said, this range, it's tough because you have to factor in

some of these situations. You have to think about the long and midterm with what's going to go on and what these guys can become, what they've shown already. That's why Derek Carr has maybe ranked higher because it's like, we know what Derek is. So that's kind of nice. That certainty is helpful. It is. It can lock you into a certain ceiling. Yeah. But when a lot of these teams in the NFC don't have that high of ceilings, it's not the damning reality that it might be in the AFC, for example. If golf, their situation is, as I broke it down, is they, they have, you know, Frank Ragnow under contract. You know, Penny Sewell is a star and he's going to, he's on a rookie deal right now. They have, you know, they have the left tackle sort of. Jackson's going to be a free agent

after this year. But they ever decent. Jonah Jackson. Thank you. The guard. Left guard. Yes. It's because I almost said Jeff Jackson for some reason. I don't know why. And so I stopped myself and just said Jackson. But anyways, uh, a literative Jackson name is that he is, he's a good player, already been a pro baller. We're both fans of him as well. But a free agent after this year. Weapons wise, I'm on St. Brown. is a star. A second team all pro for you, I believe last year,

every advanced metric, and he was my first guy off, you know, last one in or last one out, if you looked at like Brackatology. But he is, you know, everything shows that he's a very,

very damn good player. Tight ends, they have to figure out, Sam LaPorte, I like that. If they get more of Jamesson Williams, I'm going to be even more optimistic. If he comes back from the six-week suspension

and hits the ground running, like literally runs that four-three, and we see what he can, what we think he can be, I'll feel even a little bit better. about it. But still, it's like they can have some stuff go wrong. They had a lot, like, even they had stuff go right from last year and they figured a lot of things out. They still were not 500. You know, they, they still need a lot more to work at as far as just team encompassing that team.

But there's an interesting situation and a quarterback situation because I like golf. I like the situation. It's kind of hard to separate the two at times. It is. And but again, I think he gives them what they need for that position right now. And that's why I feel decent about the quarterback situation over the next two, three years. And he's probably going to be there for two. Like that's what he's under contract for, but they have a lot of flexibility. So the 6, 7, 8 was tough for me. So who'd you have at 6 if you had the Lions at 8?

This is where I get a little hot takeish here. I'm going with Justin Fields. And I know. And this is because I want people to stick with me here is what he showed as a runner last year. I think the improvement that he's in. People got to realize how shit that situation was around him. And I know it's like I'm a fan of him and people think I make excuses.

I've been avoiding Justin Fields discussions for a lot of time right now. Me too for different reasons. For months. I think the last time I kind of talked about him this pod was when we did the Thursday live or the Monday live show or Thursday live show, whatever it was when they played the commanders. And it was one night game. It was Thursday.

It was Thursday, right? Yeah. And I think I haven't really talked about him since then. Yes, he's shown more as a runner. I still have to see what he can be as a passer, but I am optimistic. I think Luke Getzzi knows what he is and is going to get the most out of them. I like the situation has improved that tier, but this is it. This is the thing and why I have this rank so high. The bears have a pretty damn good off ramp if it doesn't work

out. They have those first rounders. They have capital. If they want to move up, if they field sucks this year, and they might have a top 10 pick and another high pick because the, you know, the Panthers first round selection with a rookie quarterback, that can be some ammo to move up to maybe get into that range. Get one of the top guys. So that's why I have. I have. I, you know, have this bear situation and Justin Fields up here so high. I am optimistic about Fields. I think he's going to take a leap forward this year. I really do because of the situation around him, what he is as a player, but the bears also have a good situation in case they need to get away from it. That's insane. It's way too high. It's way too high. There's so many, there are too many

things that are uncertain for me, for them to be that high. Okay. We don't know what he's going to be. I am I'm tepidly optimistic. I think that they have done a very good job of presenting him and providing him with enough stuff for him to take that step. And we'll see what happens. But we don't know. We don't know if he's going to be able to. And I think that he still has a long way to go as a passer and just operating in that way for me to feel comfortable enough to put him that high on the list. And the other thing is, we don't know what's going to happen with those picks.

No, I know. There is a chance that the Cardinals have the first. pick, okay? The bucks have the second pick, and both of those teams just decide, we're taking the quarterbacks, like, or the Raiders have the second pick, whatever. You know, two teams that need quarterbacks are picking that high, and the bears are sitting there being like, oh, man, we'd love to trade up and get one, but there's not, we just can't do it.

So I think there's enough uncertainty where they're a little bit lower for me. I still have them at 10, okay? I have them 10th, because I do feel like he's shown enough that you can create a little bit of excitement around that. But I still think that there are teams between the lions and them that I've seen it at a decent enough clip and I've seen it for long enough that I feel better about where they are compared to where the bears are. It's just that if we want, I feel like sometimes the rookie QB contract stuff is, we forget

that what advantage it is, even if the quarterback's average. And I think that is, it feels as a, he hasn't been average though. As an all-encompassing player, he was the offense, like. year. It looked like a high school team where it was just like, hey, get the best ball in the best player's hands and let him go. I think, I think sometimes, I know this is hard. You're a huge Bears fan. And I know you're attached. And I know what they put you through. I really do. It's just that I do think there's more glimpses there that people even give them credit for. That situation was just so, so bad. And it took until the second half of the year for them to go, okay, let's use you as a

runner. Let's get rid of that fucking quick game that we're doing. So let's just get you pushing the ball a little bit. And I think it wasn't perfect, but there was so many glimpses there. I was like, okay, they're figuring this out. That last year was a redshirt ear. He's taking two redshirt ears. He's taking a gray shirt and a red shirt. And I think he's got the COVID year as a pro. And I think that's where I am optimistic as a player, but I think they have put a good situation around him that, even if he is slightly above average, slightly. I'm saying 14th best quarterback on that deal, I'll take him over a lot of these other quarterbacks with what they can do with that. It's not a bad argument.

If you throw in the rookie quarterback, the rookie quarterback contract thing out there and like what he has to be in order for you to get value out of that. It's actually, it's actually a good point. I honest, I also, this is a stupid reason. The last Detroit game is like burned into my mind. It was so bad. It was so ugly. And so if there was kind of a lit-up for a half, right?

It was so gross. He was finished seven of 21. He took seven sacks. Like, 28 dropbacks. Yeah. It just, it was a rough game. And so that, I'm, you're hoping to kind of see more linear progression from him.

It's like, oh, by the end of the year, we felt really good about where he was. And it wasn't that. You know, it was more up and down than that. And again, I am, I think it can be much, much better. The situation is so much better than it was last year. Okay. The bears have DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, and Darno Mooney as their top three receivers. Last year at this time, it was Darno Mooney, Byron Pringle, and Equaminia St. Brown.

Okay. It's unbelievable. Don't forget to kill Harry. Nikiel Harry is in there somewhere. Braxton Jones was a fifth round rookie being dropped in as the left tackle. They now have a top 10 pick that's their right tackle. They went out and signed Nate Davis. Kevin Jenkins, I think, showed that he can play.

The situation is so, so much better. And that's beyond even considering how much progress he's probably made mentally. You're talking to guys there. I was on Hogan-Johns this morning talking about this. And having conversations during training camp about where he was, he didn't even know where to look. Yeah. Like when they would walk to the line of scrimmage. He was starting from square of one last year.

And so heading into year two of the same system, you can start building on it. It's a lot of the same stuff we said about Jay one Hertz last year. Yeah. And I don't know if we're going to see that sort of leap, but I do think that we can see a lot of progress. It's just still such an unknown to me that it's hard for me to get there. Oh, this was me kind of taking a bet here. Yeah, I like it. Yeah, no, it's.

Listen, I'll be thrilled if you're right. I will be over the moon if you're right. And him as a thrower, it's frustrated me because when I watched him coming out of Ohio State, this is why I was so high on him. And I'll revisit this, you know, probably after this year is that he was so accurate and that, you know, he had some of the bounce stuff, bounced too much. And that was part of the offense, but he still has kind of done that as a pro. And when I did see this past season when it was good game situations, good game scripts,

or they weren't just getting their butts kicked left and right, I was like, okay, it's clicking. It's not perfect. There's times where he was looking and I'm like, your hot read's not over there, buddy. You got to go to the other side. And so that's a little worrisome. But then it was like November,

that stretch in November maybe feel a little bit better. And that's him as a thrower. And that's not even talking about him as a runner, which is just fantastic and a floor lifter. It's, I really do think he's going to take another leap forward this year. And again, not saying Pro Bowl or anything like that,

but more like, okay, this guy has what we want, what we want to build around. So that's, I am, I'm just optimistic. mystic, even if this is kind of a little plant flag or flag

flag planning right now. Who's seven for you? Kyler. That's a straight. Just straight quarterback like. I had them at nine. Yeah. And it mostly because his,

his injury history. That's the health outlook I think is you have to take it into account. And also he's expensive. Yes. Right. So he has like a $52 million dollar cap hit next year. And so I. didn't really know what to do with them either.

I didn't know. He's a better quarterback. Yep. Than Jared Goff and Daniel Jones and a lot of the other guys that we're going to talk about here. But there's just so many things that you're not sure about with him and that is beyond the situation. One of the reasons I also think you can put the Cardinals a little bit higher on this list is that they're going to be in a position potentially, maybe even a more certain position, to move in a different direction quarterback-wise than even a team like the Bears that has two first round. picks next year. I had them at nine, but I didn't really feel all that good about it. I started Kyler a little higher because I was just like, okay, Kyler, throw those deep balls.

He's better. Yeah, Kyle. And then every time I kind of like went through each team that he got dropped a little lower and lower, I felt pretty good where he ended up at seven, but that was also, you know, the injury history, the now it's becoming a thing. And that was a concern because of his size. And now it really is a thing. Now it's, there's proof that he's getting hurt. And now also, you know, some of the leadership concerns, I think may be a thing too where it's like they might just choose the exit out of this in a year or two. So that's another thing you have to consider. Like you mentioned with them having a high pick. So, but I still just like Kyle or the player when he is healthy, when he is on the field, the situation is in total crap. I just think that he has that ability.

But yeah, it really, that's the muck that we're in right now. It's really, really hard. You said you had them where? You had them where? Nine. Nine. Okay. And then you had fields 10. Okay. I feel it's 10. Okay. So what, so what ring are we on for you? Seven. Okay.

Which was? The Giants with a question mark. Okay. Sorry. It was just funny. That's exactly right. So that would have been, hold one two,

one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. I have them ten.

Okay. Yeah. And then I have a, I have a, I have another spicy one thrown in here as well. I have them at seven. Okay. I don't feel great about it, right?

So let's talk about this. In actuality, they're probably closer to nine or ten in where they should be. But my team at eight is the Vikings. Yeah. Kirk Cousins has one year left on his deal. Yeah. I have no idea who the quarterback for the Vikings is going to be heading into next year. I think that if we're looking at the Flacco Foles line,

I don't know if the Vikings team is good enough to even get them to this position. But Kirk Cousins is absolutely good enough to go on a heater and get you to the Super Bowl in this version of the NFC. He's the epitome of that. He 100% is. Oh, yeah. So this is the one that for me was a disconnect between where they are on the list and the heater potential. Yeah. So all that being said, there's one more year.

This is the final year of his deal. They pushed some money, but they did not extend him. And he's 34 right now? He's 34. Yeah. So they're looking at an uncertain next couple of years, and that's why I had them blow the Giants. We just talked about the questions with Kyler. So with the Giants at Daniel Jones, it's like, I'm not overly optimistic about Daniel Jones compared to some of these other quarterbacks, but he's 25 years old.

They have him under contract for the next three years, and we have seen the Giants field, an above average offense with Daniel Jones and no one for Daniel Jones to throw the ball to. Exactly. So Daniel Jones at seven. This is what we're in. So like any fans of these guys and these teams like don't like don't jump down our throats. I'm trying to sift through this too because wait until you guys hear what number nine is for me.

But that though I get that with Daniel Jones. Even at first I had him lower and I kept bumping him up because I was like, okay, I'm a little hard on him. But I like also hopefully my Kafka stays there for a while because that's also. But the thing is even if he leaves the head coach can call plays. And it's like, okay. That is not as, that's why I feel a little bit more apprehensive about the Lions because Ben Johnson goes.

Not sure what we're doing there. That's a much bigger question for me. Absolutely. You want to know why Almond Ross St. Brown breaks out like he does because Ben Johnson knows how to dial up plays for him. He's, he's awesome guys. Like anyone that hasn't watched the Lions offense, I know some people are kind of sick of it, but they do a lot of fun things on that offense.

But even, but looking at the Giants, just going back to that, I said, if you feel like this is where I haven't used this meme in a while, but this is where the disco stew meme comes in. And if you feel like disco stew and pointing at that graph that it's just going up forever, feel pretty damn good about Daniel Jones with some better weapons. You know, kind of feel a little better about that. But being more realistic, receiver wise, they took a lot of flyers. You know, I know they, Jaylon Hyatt, of course, if Isaiah Hodgins keeps ascending, okay, I feel a little better.

Tight ends, they took a flyer on Darren Waller. Okay, all right, all right. Off into line, though. This is similar to the Bears' conversation. It is. I know. Than it was last year. Even if you got question marks, it's much better than it was a year ago.

It's both went from, I know, bears went from like, yeah, I always say shit to not shit. It's like, but giants went from like below averageish to averageish. Like that's kind of what they did. Eric Gray, I like the guy they drafted at running back. So the situation is actually, it's better. It's not great, but it's better. And if you do think Daniel Jones, those glimpses of what he was asked to do, they kind of put some training wheels on him, but he excelled. with those training wheels. So I want to see him this year if there's a little bit more

openness with the offense, which I think they can do. I think that's why CAFCO is so smart. He didn't, he knew what he had. So he wasn't going like, oh, I'm, I'm willing, dealing. Like I, Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Let's do this. It's he understood what he had. So if they opened it up a little bit more, I'd feel even better about the ranking, but I totally get why, why he has to be up there because of what else he got? If you're talking yourself into this, the way that you would do it is we saw the floor last year. What could the ceiling or two steps beyond the floor B. So if the floor is what we got last season,

putting him at seven, I think is totally fine. And I think the floor is probably pretty close to what we got from him last year in this situation with this coaching staff. So that's why I had them there because I've seen what it's like just at a baseline level. And if you're trying to build in some optimism about where it could go, I think he probably deserves

to be around here. It's funny because Daniel Jones has been my kind of sort of comparison for Justin Fields. So you're saying where that was the Giants and Bears, but good athlete, big, strong athlete, can throw the ball a mild, but not always accurately. And, you know,

sometimes there's too much of a big game hunter that takes a little too long to get rid of the ball. So they've kind of been a kind of sort of comparison. So it's kind of funny. There's some parallels between the teams as well. All right. So, the eight I had the Vikings.

And then nine I had the Cardinals. So who'd you have at eight? Well, eight I had golf. Okay, perfect. Yeah, seven power eight. Okay, this one, bear with me here. I went with Jordan Love and the Packers. And this is, this is a bit of a heat check here.

But it's the youngest team in the NFL. And they have a damn good offensive line. So why I'm bringing up that when talking about Jordan Love, he's going to have a chance here to at least not only this year to sit and work from the pocket. Like I talked about fields and not be able to work on what he wanted to do because the pockets were crap. He can do that. The weapons are all, they're young. They have that capital.

word potential. So there's some optimism there if you want to go with that. But what I've seen from Jordan Love and this was starting when I took a visit there to training camp. This is just one practice. I watched Jordan Love and was, all right, some footwork stuff's cleaned up for you.

Okay. All right. I'm going to keep, put a pin in that. We'll just see it. And then you start hearing. They're like, oh, no,

we're pretty high on them now. We like him. And that's not just because they're in Roger's stuff. This was just outward what I've heard. But throughout the season, the glimps in the Eagles game when you had to play. A couple nice plays there. And so I am pretty.

pretty, I haven't talked about Jordan Love, I think, at all really on this podcast. I'm actually pretty excited to see him because I am pretty high on him, even if he's barely even seen him play. I'm pretty excited to see what he's going to be on the field this year, but also just a situation around him. They kind of, you know, Christian Watson was forced fed touches, but did show great flashes, but I don't know. I think what Jordan Love, if he hits this year, even if he's somewhat averageish, they can get him on a nice deal afterwards. You know, I know he's only on this basically a one-year contract, but after. that, they can kind of work with that because if he doesn't blow the doors off, they don't

have to pay him a ton of money. So they can be in a decent situation as far as that. So going with Jordan Love, again, I have no idea what I'm doing with this. But that's where I'm going with that number nine. I am at 13. Okay. He threw 21 passes last year. I know. He's doesn't, he's not under contract after next season. One game to watch. He's at 13. And that is honestly just because of draft pedigree compared to some of the guys that he's ahead of on this list. But I just couldn't put them any higher than that because we haven't seen enough. So you had Daniel Jones at 10. We've already talked about that.

So let's get to 11. Talking about guys we haven't even seen. I had the Panthers at 11. I have Panthers at 12 because I have cousins at 11. So Kevin of the Vikings 11. This tier, all these tiers are just really tough guys. I had the Panthers at 11 because Bryce Young was the number one pick. And I think Bryce Young is a very exciting player.

So even if we've seen less of Bryce Young than we've seen of Jordan Love and of Desmond Ritter and of the guys on the other teams that we're going to talk about, I still feel better about the Panthers quarterback outlook just because of what type of prospect Bryce Young is compared to some of the other guys on this list. But it's insane that he's 11 and we've never seen him play. I've never seen him play. But the pedigree, the investment they have in them,

it's like, hey, at least I know what your guys's plan is. I know what you guys are doing for the next four years. I must, you know, tepper fires everybody. Like,

that's, at least I know it. And I like the situation. I like the offensive line. I like the play caller. I think there's in a good spot. So we'll talk about some of the other things, considerations of Bryson here in a second. But I had them at 11.

I had Jordan 11, a 13. I had the Niners at 12. Okay. I don't. Yeah. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, like, I guess Brock Purdy looked fine.

He has one arm now. What's Trey Lance, who turned 23 today, by the way? Trey Lance did. 23 years old, Trey Lance. That situation, I just don't, I don't know what to make of it. So I had them squashed between a rookie I've never seen and Bryce Young at 11 and a guy that through 21 passes last year and George Love at 13. I had Bryce Young at 12 and then and Panthers. I had ridder at 13 because just you know whatever whatever. I had them at 14. Okay. And then I

49ers at 14. And my my 49ers wasn't even just 49ers as my bullet point. It just said pretty question mark. Darnold question mark. Lance question mark. Like each one with more question marks after each one. So that's how I sum up the 49ers. I don't know what they're doing. But they have Kyle Shanahan and a pretty good surroundings. So I don't know. We'll talk about that in a second. Yeah. 15, 16, I had Washington and then at bucks at 16. That's what I had. Because at least I don't know what Sam Howl was. These were the first two I filled out was bucks at 16, commanders at 15.

And then that's all I said. Question marks after all those as well. Actually, the whole bottom is just a bunch of question marks. So I think we wanted to do the quarterbacks just because the quarterback is the most important position in football. And it also, I think, is the biggest departure from what the AFC is. If you're winding up the two conferences, it's the quarterbacks that make them feel so distinct. thankfully different. But I think it's very important right after doing that ranking to talk about which teams and the team outlooks are the furthest removed from those quarterback rankings,

right? So I have the Niners and their quarterback situation at 12 on these rankings. Right now, the San Francisco 49ers have the second best odds to win the NFC. We do not know who their starting quarterback is going to be next season. Oh. How long Brock Purdy will be on the bench. We don't know who the quarterback's going to be. And then even looking at the group, if you just didn't know anything about them, it's an injury riddled number three overall pick that's barely played football in five years. It's Sam Darnold, who has statistically been one of the worst quarterbacks in recent memory.

And then you've got a former Mr. Irrelvitt in his second year. And he might be the best option. And they're the second favorite that kind of talks about the rest of their situation. did more than it does whatever quarterback is lining up behind center. And if you look at the odds, so on bet MGM, the Eagles are plus 275, the Niners are plus 350, and then the Cowboys are third at plus 650. So it's really the Niners and the Eagles in their own little tier there at the top.

And I don't mind that. No. And that's with their quarterback situation being 12. So that's easily the biggest departure for both of us of where the team is compared to the quarterback. And that is the most unique situation with that position in the NFL. The idea that the Niners have built this quarterback agnostic machine that is the second best team in the NFC, according to the odds makers heading into the season, is insane. It should not be possible when you think about the way that the modern NFL works.

And I have big questions about the Niners. Steve Wilkes is there. We have no idea what the defensive transition is going to be like. This is the first time they've gone to someone that wasn't on the staff. Tomiko Ryan's was clearly a star. So we'll see what that's like. You know, the offense, how much longer can they keep doing this? Can they?

Maybe. But I have more questions than those odds would seem to indicate, but I still feel like they deserve to be in the top three or four or at least be considered a playoff team in the NFC, even when you consider those questions about the quarterback situation. I mean, if you someone like, we get this, I know I get sometimes not a day to day, but when people talk to me about they're like, oh, who do you like from the NFC? And you list off the three teams. You go Eagles and then it's kind of Cowboys and Niners and really that's it. And that's all I can kind of mention off the top of my head. And that kind of, it makes sense. But it's also, you said quarterback kind of agnostic team.

And even usually at Kyle Shanahan offense can be O line agnostic. And last year was one of the better old lines that he's had in recent memory. And they've hit on a couple guys. And I think that's all great. It's just interesting. It's just such an interesting team dynamic that can live this way and not only live this way, thrive this way. Go to NFC championship games. But having, you know, Jake Brando, having a career year, now he's under contract.

And then they hit on Spencer Burford at guard. And I didn't realize this. I didn't realize Trent Williams's contract went through 2026, by the way. I just sent him to a massive deal. I knew they did, but it just goes on forever. It was like that old ABA deal where the spirits of St. Louis or whatever it was, they got the imprimaturity, but they got the TV rights for forever. That's a Trent Williams, 40-N-Ir's contract.

They just get it for a year and year after year after year. But yeah, it's just an interesting situation with the 40-N-Ires because it's just so unique, especially in the NFL and however, all of the other teams are structured. So the Niners are the furthest removed from the quarterback rankings, their team outlook rankings, what those would look like. The Lions are probably in the same conversation to me, right? So if the Lions are sixth for me on this list quarterback-wise, they probably deserve to be fourth in like a team outlook rankings in terms of what they could be in the NFC this year. I mean, they had a top five offense by pretty much any metric you want to look at last season. And they said some pretty decent pieces coming back.

And their defense should be much, much better. So even if I'm, I have some questions about how the Lions went about this off season, I still feel like they're going to be in the mix in the NFC, even with Jared Gough at six year. So that one is a little bit of a gap for me. Yeah. I was going to say, well, golf, I have like the eighth quarterback. So I was even a lower on you. And I agree completely that their team situation is about fourth. So it's kind of, yeah, I'm an exact same boat as you.

Those were the two teams that I thought for this exercise. The Giants a little bit just because I think that their long term outlook, I, I. feel pretty optimistic about. I just like the people in charge. I think that Brian Deable has done a very good job. So even if I'm not thrilled about what Daniel Jones's ceiling might look like, they really are committed to him for the next two years. So what the Giants kind of three, four, five year outlook is that I think I feel a little

bit better about than this ranking and this conversation might indicate going in the other direction, the Rams question mark. Yes. The team situation is way on the other end of this, right? Even if you feel good about McVeigh, the rest of the roster is, has a lot of questions. I think to be generous. I think just if we did it team-based, you know, and I'm just considering the quarterback and the quarterback's fourth on my ranking. So that that's all you need to know, just that discrepancy between those two.

And he could retire. Oh, yeah. Stafford could just retire after the show. Look at all the other positions. Like the receiver, it's cup and the cup at. And then Higby is a free agent after this year. The O lines, like, you know, even at their best is like a B unit, B plus unit. And their contracts are kind of, you know, a couple of years, but not like a real long-term

plan. So actually, they're okay. They're O line-wise, but just weapon-wise. They have no running backs, essentially. So just the surroundings could be, they could drop off a cliff so quick. All right. So those are the teams that we feel like, again, their outlook for this season, even for the next couple years, are the furthest removed from how you would rank the quarterback

specifically. Who are the guys that when we look back on this in a year, we'll be like, man, I cannot believe that this guy was 11th a year ago compared to what the way that we think about him now. I mean, if one of those, I don't see North guys hits, you know, fields or love and they're like also like, oh, my God, what a revelation those two were. I mean, a rookie quarterback like Bryce Young. If he plays well. The Panthers are the easiest one. Easiest one, right? Like there is, it is not hard to imagine a world where we have the Panthers written in pen in three at three. Yeah. If we did this exercise a year from now, right?

Yeah. It's not crazy at all. At all. Look at the rest of their situation. It's pretty damn good. Like, they're set up okay. If Rice Young hits, they're on a good path. So that's the easiest one.

I mean, I think they could make a leap into, if there's like a huge cutoff after the top two, they could jump ahead of the cutoff easily. And so that's the first one that I had. And Bears Packers, literally I said Bears, comma Packers. Like, just very similar situations and that we could be looking at each of those guys a lot differently than we do right now.

because of the seasons that they could have. Those are the three I had for this. Bears and Packers, I could just easily see, you know, again, that Packers roster does have some talent. It's just so young. And I don't think they're going to be blowing the doors off anybody this year, but they could surprise some people because of that young talent and a good

offense allied. So I could obviously see it, Jordan Love being pretty decent. Everyone going like, wow, they made a right choice there. Got rid of Rogers. Wow.

And then same with Fields. Just those glimpses become more consistent. Of course, that's what everyone's hoping for. But yeah, Those are the three teams I looked at as like, wow, they're a much better situation. Of course, the other one is the Falcons, Desmer Ritter. If Desmer Ritter turns out to just be averageish, wow, that's a third round pick

contract that they're paying for average quarterback play. Look at that situation. Look at the rest of the, wow, good thing they invested all those skill guys in the top 10, everyone's raking or roasting them about. The offensive lines in a decent situation. Of course, the run backs are. So not a bad situation there as well if Ritter actually ends up hitting. And you got three years with Britter.

So last year was this year, you got this year, and you have two more cheap years after it. So that three-year outlook, if he does click into place, could be really good. The other teams I had here are the candidates to be picking at the top of the 2024 draft. There is a chance that even if we've never seen those guys play, that if Caleb Williams is on the Bucks next season, they're not 16th. I don't know how they are, but they're not 16th. If Drake May is on the Washington football team next season, I don't think they're 15th. They're not third, but they're not 15th. So those are the teams.

and then the Cardinals. Yeah. You know, if they, if they had Caleb Williams, they'd still probably be like ninth, but we could feel much different about the Cardinals quarterback outlook a year from now than we do at this moment,

depending how the season goes. When they can use their 40 draft picks they have next year. It's like, that's the cardinals here, they're punting on it on purpose, basically. And so we'll, we'll revisit them in a year and we're probably feeling a lot better

with the path that they're going on. So, but no, that's great calls because any of those guys, any of those teams can pick a top guy. And just like we said with Bryce Young being in the middle of the pack of this ranking right now, it's like that's how we'll talk about these guys next year. The candidates to be much lower a year from now. We already touched on the Rams.

Are there a couple others for you that we think that maybe they'll be in their top 10 now, but there'll be considerably lower next year potentially. I mean, shoot, if Derek Carr like really doesn't do much, then it's like, oh, I can't believe we ranked him so high. You know, that's one, even Gino, same boat with Gino. Gino coming back to Earth was my next one after the Rams. I said Gino turning into a pumpkin was what I wrote. But that was the one. I haven't ranked third.

So it's, you know, that could be even dropping off the 10th will be a big drop off. So, yeah, those are the two. Same thing for the lions to me. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, if we talked about it, like the lack of weapons that they added, you know, the fact that James William's going to be out for six games. Maybe the offensive lines a little bit dinged up a tackle in a way it wasn't before. And those circumstances that Jericho got to play in last year become a little bit worse.

Do we think of him a little bit worse? little bit differently. Are we at a point a year from now where we're saying, man, the Lions really have to upgrade a quarterback, whether that's head and hooker or something else. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they've done a really good job with him. I think he's played pretty well for them. But I think you can picture it happening. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. It's you can easily see where it's, oh, man, some of those balls are intercepted. Some bad luck happens. And then those 50-50 kind of plays or no one else is just making a play for them. You know, that's always a thing too. It's like, yeah, they're going to have Marvin Jones run out. They're trying to make plays for them. They don't have tight ends.

They had T.J. Hawkinson for half the year. Was he overwhelming for them? No, but it was still a guy, you know, somebody that was valid in the passing game. And of course, they, you know, they have Gibbs and they side David Montgomery, who I do like, but can easily see Jare Gough and maybe that lion's offense taking a half step back as more film has gotten out of them and what they tried to do. Do I think it's going to happen? No. I actually are pretty high on that offense, but we'll see. We'll definitely see. Vikings as well. I mean,

Kirk Cousins might not be there. Yeah. You know, they could go from eight to the bottom, depending on who they end up getting. But they could get, they could be higher. Yeah.

And there's a chance they upgrade a quarterback this offseason depending on like the big move they could make. So they're a team that they're a candidate to be a lot, just a lot different than they are right now. Yeah. Vikings, too, is that I could see any outcome this season.

I'd believe it. And they might get caught in the middle where they're like, you know, too decent to fail. And then they get that like 16th, 18th pick. And then, you know, 17th pick. Don't make the playoffs. But they also aren't high enough to take a QB of the future. And it can be in a tough situation.

And it's like, hey, hey, Kirk, you want to come back for one more year? You know, you want to just keep doing this? One year is one year at a time. We'll just, you know, pay as it goes. So, yeah. That's terrifying timeline. That whole Vikings, I'm fascinated to watch the Vikings, not just this year, but the next two, three years because what they're trying to do with that team is just

really, really interesting. All right. That was fun. So why does this conversation matter? Okay, why do this? Why think about the NFC this way? And I think it's because we've talked about how wide open it feels. And I think this is a way to understand that.

And when you look at those two quarterbacks at the top, the way that we would rank it, and you think about all the uncertainty afterward, it really does feel like with a couple breaks, a lot of teams could be in the mix here. And I think a lot of teams built that way. Yep. I think the Saints thought that way. I think the Giants thought that way bringing back Daniel Jones. The Seahawks, I think, are thinking along those same lines with the way that they've done things this off season.

The lions, I think, are like, all right, well, why can't we kind of break through among this group, considering how wide open it feels? And if you do this exercise and you actually look at the landscape of the entire conference, even if that's very dangerous thinking and it's short term thinking and it might hamstring you down the line, you can understand it in the short term because of the way. that this thing is stacked up. That's it. We keep talking about these teams and even after free agency was going, the draft was going, and we were joking about it. It's like, hey, this is wide open though. Like the AFC is a bloodbath.

Everybody knows that. There's like 10 teams that are damn good teams that are going to be fighting for seven spots to get to the dance. And with the NFC, it's more like there's only two or three that I feel four maybe that feel decent about the rest of those five, six, seven spots are wide, wide open. So why not push it? Even just a half measure. Just push a little bit just to see if we can.

make a run and get to the dance. Like that's why I'm pretty high on the Seahawks this year because they're just their team makeup. And even if they don't have a ton of defensive answers right now, they've done a little bit to help them out on draft and free agency. I could see them making noise because it's who else. Absolutely. Because you just,

you look at it and you go, who else? Like who else are these guys that are going to get beat up by? So that's where I just keep coming back to these teams. Even the Panthers can like be better with a rookie quarterback just because their situation is pretty decent. And then who else? You just got to go through each of these teams. They absolutely could win that division.

Oh, yeah. Absolutely. With a rookie quarterback. Yeah. The Saints, if the Saints defense continues to be elite, which, again, at some point, you think they'll probably take a step back. They've done a great job of staving that off. Dennis Allen deserves a ton of credit.

If they can stay elite on defense and they can get Derek Carr levels of quarterback play with some of the weapons that they put together, that offensive line is still pretty decent, they could be in the mix. So I think you can make the case for a lot of these teams. at least being in the conversation in the NFC. And the Seahawks are one that we've seen what happens when they get hot. We've seen what happens when Gino goes on one of those runs. And the infrastructure they have on offense,

the pieces they've added on defense, I mean, again, you get back to that Foles-FACCO line. And there are at least three or four different quarterbacks outside of the top two that we talked about that I think are in the conversation to be over that line and make things interesting in the postseason if they were to get there. Absolutely. It's, that's what you just have to go to get to the dance and then go on a run. And usually some, or I should say usually. Yeah, usually. It's kind of tied in together. It's like who who gets to the dance. Usually the ones with the best quarterbacks. Who go on a run. Usually the ones with the best quarterbacks. But it doesn't mean always anyone can outplay anybody in any given game. Like that happens. It happens all the time. It happens for three weeks. It happens for four weeks. So you never know who's going to have a hot month. Who's going to have a hot January. So that's why this NFC is going to be fascinating. And why some of the I was a little more tolerant of when some people were being a little more aggressive or pushing for some stuff or making moves.

The same signing Derek Carr. It's kind of like, oh, aren't you guys going to rip out the Band-Aid at one point? But it's like, you look at the makeup of the league, the conference here. Okay, I get it. I kind of get it. Another team. And I know I bring them up on every pod, but the Falcons, if Ritter's okay and that offense goes gangbusters, they can win the division.

Like, I mean, I'm not saying they are, but I'm just saying this is, that's how wide open it is that anyone can get to the dance this year. And who knows goes on a run. the Colts, I think, looked at their two quarterback options available at four, and they went for the 500-foot, like, towering home run potential, because those are the types of guys you have to play against in the AFC. Like, the considerations and the path to get there in that conference is just very different than what it looks like in the NFC right now.

And I think that doing it this way and looking at the quarterbacks this way and looking at the landscape this way really helps us understand that. And I think that's why we wanted to do it. I just listed a quarterback with 20 throws. in his career as like the ninth best quarterback of his conference over a guy that had his career year in Daniel Jones. You had the Bears and Justin Fields at six. Yeah.

Why not? Hey, we're projecting, projecting for 2023. So we'll see. I tilted the shoulder up a little bit. Maybe not 500 feet like an Anthony Richardson pick, but maybe about 410. Get over the left center ball. God, I really hope it happens to fling that thing out on the way. If anyone listen to these shows, they'd be like, man, Nate Tyson is a huge Bears fan.

And like, he really has to tone down his home. Why does Robert hate the Bears? Robert hates the Bears. He must be a Packers fan. You know, oh, man, no. No, he's a Vikings fan. Wouldn't be the first time I've heard it, man. Wouldn't not be the first time I've heard it.

You appreciate good football play. That's all it is. But yeah, but that's, I just want to say, it's like some of these sound hot takey, but that's what the NFC is. There's a lot of multiverses this year. There's a lot of paths I can see these teams going down where a lot of it makes sense,

where it's easy to talk yourself into the glass half full projection and the glass half empty one. And that's why this was so fun to do, especially with you, because it was just talking about all the angles of this. The nice part about this is even though we just ranked the quarterback situations and looked at three-year outlooks and contracts and stuff, we can still do the quarterback draft because most of the quarterbacks were going to draft and that are in the AFC, so we didn't step on that.

So we will do the quarterback draft at some point over the next month or so. It's just one of those things that, you know, again, I'll be going on my honeymoon, but we'll be doing shows while I'm gone. So I think that's one of the ones that we will probably roll out. And thankfully, the AFC has given us enough options where we can still do it and not step on the conversation that we just had. All right. That is all we've got. Just a reminder, mailbag recording later this week.

Please send in your questions if you have not. The email is athletic football show at gmail.com. The voicemail, if you want to call us and leave a message is 872. 2227073. One more time. 872-22-22-7073. You guys have done a great job of populating that inbox with great stuff. We're looking forward to it again.

We will be back on Friday with another show. In the meantime, please check out the football GM with Mike Sando and Randy Muir coming your way on Thursdays. That is all we have for now. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the athletic football show.