The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Predicting 2022's top-10 offenses

Episode Date: August 22, 2022

It's time for Robert Mays and Nate Tice to put on their prediction caps. On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, the guys predict which offenses will finish in the top 10 by Football Outsiders DVOA. Obviously you're going to hear about teams like the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers. But who rounds out the top 10? And who gets left out? Oh, and guess what? We have a difference of opinion right at the top. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today's Monday, August 22nd. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, it's my good friend Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing well. The end is nigh of the preseason.

We're almost there. We're almost there. Only a couple more weeks, and we actually have real games. I don't have to sift through some third or fourth preseason game, you know, Panthers film where they came to. line up. I can't, you know, this guy's name, I don't have, well, it used to be better because the guys that were, you know, the skill position guys you really didn't have to worry about were wearing single digits. Now I actually have to care about the guys that are wearing single digits because they actually

can wear those numbers now. So that kind of, that kind of stakes. I was about to make a joke about that. But I'm ready for the regular season to start. Let's be honest. I drove up to Green Bay last night. I'm here today. I'm going to spend a couple days of the Packers and then I will drive home and that'll be the end of my preseason travels. And I'm looking forward to being home simply because I've a garbage disposal for the past month. I've been working out pretty much every day on the road, which I feel pretty good about, but I've been eating everything that's not moving faster than me. And I need some lifestyle shifts as we get into September here.

I had way too much fast food on my, my, I was only gone for like nine days. And I, when I expensed it, I had to short, I had more than one McDonald's receipt, which is disgusting for me. I don't eat McDonald's that often. I love it, but I don't. And it was, I had actually sift through and go like, oh, which day was this one? And actually, as opposed to just the one McDonald's receipt I was supposed to expense, it was like three. That's a, that's a moment where you kind of look, where you look yourself in the mirror and start to think about your choices.

Oh, I just, oh, all I did was as soon as I got home is, even though I wanted the rest, like for three days, it was like, okay, all right, Peloton, what's wire you up? Let's dusty off a little bit. Let's get going a little bit. There are times where I just won't expense the fast food because I'm embarrassed about it. I was embarrassed. I sit there and I look at it and it's like, all right, I spent $17 here. Is it worth the $17? for the expense people to know what I got at Taco Bell.

And the answer is no. For the most part, the answer is no. The issue with me is, though, I haven't been eating a lot of crap. I've been eating really well in these places. But when I go to a city, it's like, what's the best restaurant in this city? And then I go alone and I order as if I'm with three other people because I want to try everything. And it just leads to terrible results.

I eat so much more. I eat so much more when I'm just eating alone because I, like, don't feel shame for some reason. Like, I'm just sitting there on my phone. looking at the TV, the waiter keeps coming over. Everything okay? And I'm just like, yeah, just leave me alone for a minute. Just let me gorge as I sit here as a sloth. And they give you the three sets of underwear.

It's like, man, it's a tough look for me right now. I really hope they don't know I'm about to eat this alone in bed. Oh, man, that's great. I've had a time where I was living alone, especially in Atlanta. I, you know, working long hours, coming home late. And I got a chick-fil-a-one one time. and I had enough food and that Chick-fil-A order that they just go, oh, wow, big party, huh?

It was just for me. And that's also when people started asking me if I used to be an offensive lineman. And I was like, okay, it was time to drop some white. Now that people ask me again, like, were you tight end or a quarterback? Okay, good. We're back to that. But when people started going, do you play tackle or guard, lose a little weight? I was like, no, no, I was a quarterback.

This isn't good. Well, in Green Bay today, I'll go on the mission to find a salad, which should not be easy. But somehow I think I'll get there. All right. With cheese curds on it. It's what we're going to do today. We're getting very close. It's August 22nd.

We got a couple more weeks, really one more week of preview content before we get to our division previews. So we're going to start our division previews, I believe, next Monday. So we got four or five more shows. One of the ones I wanted to do, it's right down the middle, but I still think it's a good exercise. You did it with Mina a little bit earlier this summer, but I feel fine running it back. I feel totally fine.

And I also have some changes, which is. There you go. Scary for me. Yeah. So we're going to predict the top 10 offenses by DVOA this year. Love it. And I just think it's a really good way to kind of sit back and think about, all right, who's different, who's the same? Offense is much different than defense.

So when we do the show on defense with Deontes tomorrow, we're not going to predict the top 10 just because defense is so unpredictable. There's so many weird factors. We're going to ask some questions about defenses with Deonté. But with offense, you can usually do a pretty good job. Offense is much more stable year to year. I think it's a more useful exercise to talk about the offenses this way. So we're just going to run through it. We're going to go 10 to 1.

I want to start with the teams that didn't make your list, though. Do you have a few quick honorable mentions? I have two. I have two honorable mentions because I would say 8 through 12 was tough for me. I have 13. I have three honorable mentions I did not throw on there because I feel the same way. You could have done any of the three I'm about to mention in the top 10. Yeah.

So the two that missed the cup for me is the one. the Raiders and the Packers. And the Packers was a tough cut. Wow. Wow. That's surprising. Okay. That was a big change. That was a change.

Raiders and Packers was a tough look for me. But I'll get into why Packers, it's a little weird right now. I think they're rebalancing the team. I think that's what they're trying to go for as a whole. But if you're counting on a fourth round rookie to be one of your better receivers, the offensive line is kind of shaky. Like there's some injuries that. The tight end room is shaky.

They've had a ton of injuries there. just a little, I'm a little scared, even though as much as I trust Aaron Rogers and the floor, that coaching staff, the offensive line coach, it's, I don't know. I just, it's not as like a bonafide where I'm like, oh, this is top six, seven. If they end up top 10, I wouldn't be shocked, but it's still just, you know, I still have some question marks more than I thought even a couple months ago. And then the Raiders, offensive line is still a little shaky. That one is, Raiders was tough for me.

I would say Raiders was closer to top 10 than Packers were. So Raiders would be 11. And Raiders was tough. Raiders would probably just 14th for me. I think they were been the first team I had left off from my honorable mentions. Offensive line was the first thing. I literally typed. I typed Raiders and then I sat there and thought about it for a second.

I was like, I can't do it. I just can't do it with the line. I talk myself out of them every time. I just, and I trust Josh McDaniels. I really do. And I love their guys. Devante Adams, Hunter, Renfiel, Darren Waller. But it's just like, is that enough?

Like, are we trusting all that? Are we going to trust Derek Carr with maybe a shaky offensive line or up and down offensive line? Like, I don't know. Is Alex Leatherwood play? Like just they have so many question marks. I want to see it. They're ones I have to see to like really like trust them.

I'm with you. That's why I left them off and it's why they were again, like my last team from my honorable mentions. The three I did not put in my top 10. And I assume at least one of them is probably two for you. I had the Ravens who easily could be eight, nine or ten. That's swap them out with any of the teams that I mentioned. I think their offensive line is going to be considerably better.

I'm not that worried about the lack of high end receiving talent outside. I just think with the way that they're built, they'll be able to kind of overcome that. The run game, I think, is going to be so, so much better than it was last year. Again, the line being healthier, getting guys in there. Morgan Moses is at right tackle? Just little things like that where it's like human being, functional person, and that shit matters.

And hopefully the Linderbaum not missing some time this summer doesn't really matter. I think that he's such an interesting piece and what he can do for them. And he's sharp too. So that's where mentally, I think he'll be okay. I'm fascinated about what that run game looks like because I have to assume that they looked at a lot of the shit the Eagles could do with Kelsey and thought, what can we do with the center who moves like that? And do they incorporate some of that stuff? So I'm really interested to see what that looks like. They could have been eighth.

They could have been seventh. I just, I wanted to talk about these other teams a little bit more than the Ravens. Another team that didn't make it for me was the Cowboys. That one's tough. I know. They're on yours, I assume. Yes. Yeah.

I just, we can talk about why you think. they are. The receiving talent is just a concern to me. You're looking at this and you're really relying on Jalen Tolbert and when James Washington got hurt and it was a thing, that becomes a problem. And we don't know when Gallup is going to be back. When they asked him if he was going to be ready for week one, it was the day before I went to camp. He laughed at them. And that's not a good sign. They just don't have that many playmakers and, you know, the offensive line, they're one tackle injury away from some shuffling that makes me concern. Let's say, Terrence Steele gets hurt.

Or Tyrone Smith, who has not been a beacon of health over the last 5 years, even if he was a little bit healthier last year. Let's say Tyron Smith goes down. What happens? I know. Do you... Do you put Tyler Smith left tackle and then you move and then McGovern slides in at that guard spots?

That's probably what? A rookie left tackle who has spent the majority of his time and can't play in guard because I think they want him to win that job. Josh Ball, who they drafted in the fourth round last year, by all accounts, has not come the way that they wanted him to. So they're swing tackledess. And that's just going to lead to some things where the shuffling starts and you don't like it. So I have some concerns about what happens if they move one or two pieces up front.

And that that combined with the skill position talent and the fact that I have my reservations about this offensive coaching staff still. I was just about to crack a joke. I go every time I get excited, I always remember, hey, Mike McCarthy's still there. And I know he's not calling plays and whatnot, but it's still that that stank is still like. I turned down Mike McCarthy Way last night. I just started laughing. My hotel was right off Mike McCarthy Way in Green Bay. And it's just I hear the GPS, turn left on Mike McCarthy Way.

It's like, that's fucking hilarious. That is really funny. Did you see the shed where he studied, you know, all the stuff that got on the Cowboys job? You know, and he did the analytics deep dive camp that he was doing that one year. Did you drive by that? My understanding is he lives in like a hundred acre estate out here. Because I guess you can if you're the head. coach of the Packers.

Yeah. It is such a, going, I'm sure for you, too. Like, doing the training camp tour, it is like going straight from Chicago, especially now that they have camp at their facility and then going to Green Bay and even going Madison, Minneapolis for me and San Fran. And then you just get reminded a lot. You're like, I'm in Green Bay. Like, the drive.

It's so much better than it used to be, though. I mean, by the stadium, across from Lambo, there used to be a Kmart and one Mexican restaurant. And now there's like an. actual collection of shit here. There's a brewery, there's multiple breweries, there's a couple nice hotels. The area around the stadium is actually pretty nice. I'm so used to coming up here that it just doesn't faze me anymore.

I've been up there so many times. So that's the thing for me. I was always on the opposing team. Like I never stayed in Grebe Bay. It was coming with my dad where my dad was playing there. So it's like that was my first time really just like staying in Greene Bay was when I took that visit. So that was fun for me.

So yeah, that's why the Cowboys is that they didn't make it for me. And then the other team I wanted to at least, mention. If the Vikings finished with like the seventh best offense in the league, would you be surprised? Nope. Are they on your list? No. And I'm glad you brought them up though because I'm, yeah, I don't know. We'll probably talk about this in divisional previews because I think I got the NFC North. I learned this yesterday. But I don't know. I'm a little optimistic about them. And it's actually one of those that maybe I should have thrown out as my honorable mentions because that's a great call. Give me a reason why the Vikings wouldn't be one of the 10 best offenses in the league this year.

And that's actually, now that we're talking about it, I'm actually kind of embarrassed that I don't have them. Like, because it's, I'm really, like I said, I'm optimistic. I think they know what their line is. And I think they know how to negate the issues that the line has had over the years. And I think they're going to be better. If Darrysaw takes a big step forward, if Edingram wins that right guard job and he ends up being pretty decent, you know, we know what Bradbury is at this stage. And I guess that's a concern. We have like it's a shito line.

It's like, it's really not. It's fine. It's a totally fine. I know. And even for me, and then you get reminded. And then you got, I love how they're using Jefferson and Theelen. Like they, I mean, it truly, I, in my article about, about my training camp is it's, I really thought it was like, it's more about that, it looks like that Rams offense from 2018, 2019 with Woods and Cup, of course. But the heavy play action, play action, play action.

They're not emptying it out like Stafford, but they're just going to lean in that. I think they'll do. I think they'll do more of that than you think they do. Okay. I think they'll do more of that than you think. But I do think that having just hopefully the picture stays the same. We're going to talk about this. We're going to talk about this with Kevin O'Connell when we do our play caller show later this week.

I think it's about cohesion within the offense, right? Because the bones of the offense DNA-wise are the same system. You know, the guys last thing that called play last year was Kubiak, literally. But I think that it's about the cohesion between, all right, off this look, one run, one pass, one screen. All of it kind of building together rather than scattered place. And I think that's what the Rams do an incredibly good job of. And it's a misnomer that they were this run heavy backwards offense last year. That's just not true.

No. But I think that there are little tiny dials to push them into modernity and just have everything kind of come together in a better, smoother way on offense than they had it last year. I always love the analogy we use is just turning the dials, cranking in dials in certain ways. And like you said, they had the bones. And it really doesn't look too much different. A little more toss zone a little bit. All the Jetsweep stuff was great. And that's like you're saying, you're speaking of cohesion of that.

And that's what the Rams do well. It's just that they, I think they're just going to crank it up. Like, hey, we're good at this. Why be scared to do it? As opposed to running those heavy play action bombs twice a game. Let's run it four times a game. Like it's not crazy. But imagine if you went, okay, it's like shoot threes.

If I make, I will go two for four on those. That's one more explosive play I just created. That's 40 yards I just gained. You know, that's four first downs I picked up in one play. I think they're just going to lean into that. That's like, we have a decent running game. We have a great running back. Okay, we're going to have that.

Imagine Dalman Cook on those checkdowns like Todd Gurley used to get. Exactly. I mean, it's going to be great. And those screens, he's a great screenplay, a receiver. Like, I don't know. They have some good, they have some interesting stuff. Every day I become more and more intrigued with the Vikings are going to be this year. Yeah, I'm bullish on them.

And if we are and you like the personnel and you think the coaching is going to be better, they easily could be a top 10 team. All right, let's start. So they're my late honorable mention. I'm throwing him as a. I'm embarrassed that and bring them up. Who's at 10 for you? At 10, oh, let me get my list ready.

Okay, at 10, I have the Denver Broncos. And this one, this one I go back and forth with a lot because we talked about the quarterbacks in new places. And so it's almost a continuation of that conversation. If they ignore the siren song of Let Russ Cook, I will like this team. If they lean into too much of the Let Russ Cook stuff, I'm a little more trepidious about it. I think their alliance pretty solid, even when you're a lot of. without Munchak being there anymore.

I like the running backs, of course, Javante Williams and Melvin Gordon. Melvin's still got stuff in the tank. He really does. He's not a washed player. He's still a solid back. The receiver room with Sutton. Judy is not, doesn't have great stylistic synergy

with Russ. I think like Judy would be great with a guy like Rogers or something like that. I totally agree with that. It's not the guy for him. He's more of a, yeah, he's more of a crafty, quick intermediate guy while Russ likes his size and his, you know, ball winners. Like, hey, he was a badger for a year. But it's, but I think really with Sutton is the guy that will expand. I think everyone has seen this.

I'm really high on Albert O, they're tight end. He's, here's my breakout candidate. Are you worried that he's playing deep into preseason games and backups? I am. I am worried. I am concerned. Oh, I had a little Twitter rant about it. I was like, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey.

The last coaching staff was like tabbing this guy. And all of a sudden, you guys can't get him on the field or you get them on the field too much. I think it's more they want reps out of them. I think Albert O is not a natural football player. He's more of an athlete. So he needs reps. He's just a rep guy. I don't think he's dumb.

I think it's just that he needs reps. I think that's what Hackett said, right? He said he hasn't played a ton of football. We want to get him out there a little bit more. So that's what you hope that it is. Exactly. They're nine for me. Here's my reasoning.

And it doesn't, with some of these teams where there's, it's really new. It's kind of hard to go off of last year's stats. Like when people start throwing out stats about previous regimes with different quarterbacks as they relate to offenses, I'm like, why are we doing this? Right. Everything that happened outside of maybe player usage and role about guys that are still there, like how much time Tim Patrick spent the slot last year compared to this year and things like that, maybe we can think about.

But other than that, I think a lot of it is not that useful. But you look back at Seattle. How many times in the past 10 years do you think the Seahawks finished outside the top 10 in an offensive DVOA? Oh, probably only once. Twice. Twice. 2016 and 2017.

That's it. We've done all this hemming and hawing about Russell Wilson and the Seahawks passing game and the limitations of it over the last couple years. The Seahawks were seventh in passing TVOA last season. Right. Wasn't there weighted like pretty good too or something like that? Like they, they like, yeah, I know. It's funny. It's funny.

Like we're going to talk about another team where it's like, man, they need to do this, this and that. And they're top five at every metric. and you're like, hmm, maybe I shouldn't be so harsh on that. They were eighth. Excuse me. They were eighth in passing. Still. Still.

Still. Seventh in total offensive DVA last season. And that's with Russell missing a chunk of time and then looking awful when he came back early out because of the finger. Russell Wilson is a very good quarterback. And what's around him there is not a disaster. So I just feel like in the back half of the top 10, I feel comfortable penciling them in. That was that was it.

Like that was the reasoning. I don't think the marriage is perfect. I think it's going to be a little bit disjointed early on. as they figure out what it looks like, but I think by the end of the season, they will be right here in this conversation. All right. I think they have a high floor

because the run game, I think no matter what, will be solid and Russ can create explosive plays. So no matter what, they're going to have it be at least above average. I think that's a great way to put it. Yeah. All right,

number 10 for me is the Colts. Okay. Number nine for me is the Colts. So we just, okay. I don't think we have to spend a ton of time on this. If you guys want to go back and listen to the conversation we had about Indianapolis,

in our quarterbacks of new places show about Matt Ryan. That's really a good chunk of it. The stat I was looking at today, Carson Wentz was 26th in the NFL last season in on-target throw percentage, according to pro football reference. Matt Ryan was ninth. That's it.

Just the ability to run your offense and just having more reliability on a football and personality level in the building every single day, I think is a big thing. And it really, I asked Frank Reich this. and he gave me a sort of non-answer. I pretty much asked him,

what do you want to do on offense? You've had to do so many different things because of your quarterback over the last three years, and you had to change quarterbacks. In a vacuum, what would you want to be on offense? And I think it would be a little bit more varied. It would be a lot of the stuff they did with Andrew Luck back in the day because Andrew Luck could still move.

And that to me is the huge difference between Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Is that if you want to play under center and use play action, you can't. And you couldn't do it with Philip. Rivers. So the fact that the entire offense is available to them. And the other number that I looked at that I think is really telling, Naheem Haynes had 40 catches last season. He had 63 in 2020 with Rivers. He went from an 82.9% catch rate with Rivers to 70% last year with once. It's just little things like that. I like the pieces. I think there are reasonable concerns about the past catching options. But if Alec Pierce is that vertical outside the numbers guy and we like Michael Pittman,

they love Ashton Doolin. And even if Paris Campbell gets hurt, I think they believe Ashton Doolin can be a pretty solid third receiving option for them. The line is probably going to be better than it was last year, even with Matt Pryor at left tackle. Quentin Nelson was not healthy last season. I just have faith in their ability to do this well. And they also have a super underrated center. Like Kelly is such a good player. Like that's a guy I always forget until I rewatch him. I'm like, God, he's such a good player. And that helps.

I mean, I, yeah, I'm glad you said, because I said, my first note on this was, we dove into this. So let's listen to that podcast about why I'm excited about this. I just like it. I like the quarterback, uh, where he attacks the football or throws to attack throwing the football. I like the size that they have at receiver. I love Jonathan Taylor.

I think that all, I love Frank Reich as a play caller and a play designer. He's one of the best at adapting without going crazy, but just little tweaks, Turn in dials, like we say. He's one of the best in the entire NFL. I mean, he's like a top five play caller for me. I think it should for you for everybody. But really the tight end room, but the size, Colin Grants. I just like it.

I really think this is going to be a really fun team, another team that's going to pick up as the year goes along. And I love how you keep bringing up how Matt Ryan brings, it makes everything available. So it's like whatever they realize that they can lean into, they can do it. Play action, I intermediate passing, even quick game and RPO's. Like, he's pretty solid at it. Like he can go on the move because he's still a decent athlete. It's some good stuff. And I really like that that he can do that.

And it's, yeah, I think it's going to be a fun team to watch, a fun team to watch developed throughout the year once they kind of figure what they want to do. The last thing I'll say, they're so bummed that Andrew Ogletree tore his ACL because they were really, really excited about him. He was probably going to start. It was going to be him in Moeally Cox. And I think that they were going to use a lot of 12 personnel with those two guys. And now that the room changes a little bit.

Yeah. And, you know, Granson becomes that move. tight end and, you know, Cox is now in that true inline role because Jack Doyle is gone. So they lose a little flexibility and they were pretty pumped about him. But I still think they have more than enough. The other stat that I came across when I did the quarterback article as yes, sometimes I think one of the arguments, when people are saying the Colts receivers, it's like, oh, they don't create after the catch. Like that I, to me, that feels like one's ridiculous. But right. But also it's funny since 2019, no quarterback has gotten less of his yards created after the

catch the Matt Ryan. He's used to this world. Like he's used to... But also look back at 2020 when they had rivers. On all those crossers, it's because Wes can't place the football. Exactly. There's no accuracy. But I'm saying you that even if that's the one argument you have against this, it's like Matt Ryan's lived in that world. He's fine. But this receiving group is so much better than that. Pierce, Pierce, I'm watching the game from yesterday. He, oh my God, he had a play where he carried a guy. Like, that's the thing. He's not a juky guy. But he buried his shoulder into a guy and dragged them five yards to create some after the catch. And his biggest knock is, oh, he can't create after the catch.

And it's like, oh, my God, that you're a rookie that's dunking on guys is now creating yards after the catch. Like, that's going to be really fun dynamic pairing, I think. Yeah, I think they're going to be just fine with the past guessing options. All right. Who's number eight for you? Eight is the Cowboys. And you kind of knocked, you kind of touched in exactly what my qualms with him are. But it's just, yeah, I keep rewatching Dak before he popped his calf.

And I'm like, I can't, I get suckered back into this team. It's a good argument. It's a good enough argument. That's what he's, that's what it is. He's going to sugarcoat it for me. Like he's going to just put that little whipped cream on it and make it look good. I really think he's going to be decent. I mean, no kidding, Nate, but I really think he's going to be great, I should say.

But I think the offensive line woes is a great, you know, that's really what I come back to. And the receiving, I think that even though he has a really great chemistry of CD. And I think CD's going to be on a monster year this year. Great chemistry with Dalton Schultz. Okay. So you got a four. 5-5 receiver and a tight end that doesn't run a route past 10 yards. What's the one thing that we knocked the Cowboys for?

Feeling tight. So that's kind of a little scary. Where does the juice come from? I think is a huge question for me. It's a huge question, especially with Gallup. When Gallup gets back, we know what Gallup can be vertically outside the numbers. True. There's no questions about that.

But if he misses some time, I should probably give Dakmore credit in this conversation than I do. and I'm probably leaning too much on what I'm not knocking you for it I'm kind of had the same argument in my head too I'm like man they they get two injuries this team could be rough that's my problem is it's so fragile they're just so they're so close to this being a really bad situation especially up front and again they've been hurt a lot over the last few years I mean Terrence deal had to come in and play last year it's it's not like we've we have to squint or use our imaginations with this team in offensive line injuries so I'm just a little bit worried about one or two little things happening and going off the rails. But if DAC is one of those guys that stays healthy, I should probably give him a little bit more credit in this situation.

And he's got a, you know, this might be some of the calf, but I also think that he had the injury two years ago, the more catastrophic one. And I think he keeps saying this is the healthiest I've been in about three years, which is awesome to hear because last year was the fewest amount of times he scrambled. Since 2018, it's the least amount of EPA per scramble, the lowest EPA per design rush. he's at since 2018 since that's far back because I can look it up. So you got to lean into it. Like we got to create these yards somehow. They have to be creative with him. They have to get him on the move a little bit more to help out the offense align.

He has to lean in. I know he wants to be the super robot from the pocket and that's why I love him. But he has to create a little bit more. He has to put more on his shoulders. I think he's okay with that. But that's what it has to be. It has to be Dax year, like in which I thought would be last year, which it was starting to be.

So he popped his calf. But I think it truly has to be because he has to be the offense. even if he's not running, close your eyes and think of that Josh Allen play from this weekend. Kyle Uschak said something really smart to me when I was in San Francisco just about how teams find explosive plays in the NFL in this world where defenses are structured to take exactly that away. And it's second reaction plays. It's just being able to find those throws late in the down where your quarterback is creating a little bit, but he's keeping his eyes downfield. You have one of those guys. And having a super processor is really helpful.

And DAC is a really good quarterback. But defenses are too good. You know, you think about that Broncos game last year and just how hard it was for them when they play against some of these really good defensive coaches or San Francisco in the playoffs. Can you just get that splash play that emerges out of nowhere because you make it happen? And it almost feels like a necessity to be a really, really good offense these days. And can he give them that element because he's feeling a little bit better physically? I think it's a reasonable question. I'm totally with you.

He's like Ray Allen or something. He can jack up those threes and it's just like, but can you go get us a bucket? Get foul. Create your own shot. Yeah. Create your own show. Go get foul. Take it to the rack.

Like that's what he needs to do. He needs to go get a bucket that way. Again, I love the processing, but that's what go get in a bucket is. I mean, ad libing the play. That incredible Josh Allen throw, which I'll talk about a little bit, but from yesterday in the preseason, he ad libs just enough in the pocket to create a new play. even though it was still in structure. It's kind of a weird way to, think of it just extending a half second.

I think that's exactly right, though. But that's what he did. He's mitigating pressure in a way that makes the offensive line less important, just little tiny things that are helpful when you're playing late into downs, not hurtful. Speaking of making things hurtful when you're playing late into downs, I have the Cincinnati Bengals at number eight on my list of offenses. So obviously, you know, when you're talking about their issues there.

You get that great tweet about Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, you know. Do you have them higher? Yeah. Okay. All right. Just slightly. They could probably be higher. There are a few different things.

I was there this week and just talking to people on their offense about, all right, where do you feel like you needed to get better? And obviously, the protection and the eating the sacks is the biggest issue. Their personnel is going to change that. Joe doesn't help himself all the time, though. I mean, there are plays where he really was trying to get every single ounce of meat off the bone. And it leads to some bad results. That's part of who he is. but I think trying to crank that down a little bit would be helpful.

So they were 12th and weighted offensive DVA last season. They were 19th in rushing EPA, but they were middle of the road in neutral situation pass rate. I think that they'll throw the ball. And I understand how you get there because you don't want your quarterback to get decapitated. Right. This idea that pass more, pass more, pass more, pass more at the expense of everything

is just not how human beings work. and I think that we have to understand that. And they're trying to give him plays where he doesn't have to worry about getting absolutely killed. So they'll throw the ball more this year because they trust the protection more. And I think that is important. So if they're 58% pass instead of 52% pass and their passing game is still extremely efficient, that alone bumps them up into the top 10 from where they were a year ago. And I think that they will be that.

I do think we need to have a real conversation about the players that they they added on their offensive line. Like, Lyle Collins is good. This idea that Alex Kappa is Zach Martin is very strange to me. Right. It was the fifth best starter on the Bucks O line. And like Ted Karras has bounced around the league.

And I understand how important it is to go from the worst offensive line of football or one of the worst three to a functional offensive line. That's a really important transition. But I don't suddenly think that the Bengals are going to start running the ball, like the 2016 Cowboys. Right. And so I think that's important to understand. I agree.

And it was so funny. I remember when we started the offseason pods and I was like, we talked, I think we talked about like the Bengals playing or something of that sort. Like we're talking about what ideal matches or something. And I was like, well, I know for the Bengals that the one guy they should keep is their center, Trey Hopkins. The first freaking guy they cut was Trey Hopkins. And like they wanted to swap him out.

I'm like, really? I was like, that was the guy that was helping you guys out. Like that guy was doing a lot for you guys. So I don't know. Their self-evaluation was a little interesting to me. But yeah, I think again, it's not they went from shit to amazing all pro level. They just went to average, maybe even below average for some of the guys, which is an improvement. Don't get me wrong.

But it's still not like, like you said, it's not like they added Zach Martin and Quentin Nelson and Ryan Ramcheck at right tackle. Yeah, I mean, Cordell Wilson, who's a fourth round pick is right now, I think, by about six inches leading that left guard battle. They're going to have a fourth round rookie in there And then Ted Carrey's Alex Kappa And Lyle Collins, who hasn't practiced Yeah I mean, I think there is There's more to be said about that offensive line

Than people just writing in Penn That is now a good group of players Yeah, no, I agree. Bengals were sixth for me. Okay, all right. So the one thing I want to say, so the one other thing I want to, let's take into this a little bit more

about why you have them six. They last year, and this is my one other concern about them. I have them in the top 10, by the way, before Bengals fans are. to be really pissed off about this. I have them in the top 10. Last year, against cover 1 and cover 3,

Joe Burrell led the NFL in EPA per attempt. I'm not shocked. This is, so this is my favorite part of the stat. He was seventh in air yards per attempt and seventh in average time to throw. So he was operating quickly wall throwing the ball deep. It's good combination. That's it.

That's what you want. Every single time he looked out there and saw Jamar Chase 101, he took it every single time, which he should. But teams are not going to allow that to happen anymore. That's... So now what happens? And I think they have a very good plan on a few different fronts after conversations there.

One, they know they're going to get more shell coverage this year. So how are they going to create opportunities for Jamar Chase that exist in that world? We already saw it in the back half last season. His slot snaps went up intensely. They're using him in the backfield a little bit. I asked them, where did you kind of look for ideas for him? and the answer is everywhere because he can do everything. He can be Debo in some of these situations because he's built like that.

They think he can play inside and run some of those choice routes and have a little bit more awareness and short area quickness to his game than it might seem at first glance and do some Cooper Cup Justin Jefferson type stuff. So moving him around, getting him some yak opportunities, really having him be a movable piece within their offense, which we saw it a little bit of during the back half of last year. I think we'll see more of that this season. Yeah.

The other side of this, and we talk about the silos and how siloed they are, they were 80% run under center last year. When they run under center. It was on one second down. It was hilarious. That's when they're going to do it. They're going to run when they're under center because Joe did not feel comfortable turning his back to the defense with that offensive line.

Can you blame him? Yeah, that's fair. I get it. So now, if the, if the protection is better, do they feel comfortable using a little bit more to play action. Do they feel comfortable being able to attack some of these new defensive plans that teams are going to have for them? When you look at what they did last year against San Francisco for a good chunk of that

game, the Broncos, Rams in the Super Bowl, they're often struggled. They just weren't efficient outside of explosive plays often enough. Can they find that plan for efficiency? And by putting them eighth, I'm kind of saying the answer is yes. I still think they're going to be a very good offense. Yeah, but they lived and died by 50-50 balls. an explosive place. And that, like, that's the stuff.

I want to say it's a luck base because, you know, Jamar Chase and T. Higgins are dunking on guys. You know, like, they're, you understand why they do it because it's hard to live that way, though. It's hard to live that way. Exactly. They're running, and I mean this as a compliment and a diss. They're running like the 2006 Colts offense where they run five plays.

But the thing is, it's not, you know, Burroughs amazing, but it's not Peyton thrown to Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and just like, automatic every single play. And they're not facing basic static coverages every single. play. You got wielding freaking defenses moving every which way. And so that's where the hesitation comes. I'm glad you brought up the silo stuff too because that's my, that was so annoying that it was, yes, Joe Mixon was great at them. But it was like, I could guarantee you, if it was second and four, there they go, under center, they're going to be in heavy personnel and they're going to run the weak side zone. And then Joe Mixon's going to cut it back. It is four or five yards. And they get the first down.

Here comes another go ball. Here comes spread it out and here comes some vertical passing concept. So it's, like you said, it's, once you have tape out there for players, coaches, everybody, good defenses or good opposing units get really good at game planning against you. NFL is all about matchups. You think NFL teams are going to love what they're going to watch that Chiefs tape and go, we're not going to get dunked down by Jamar Chase every play. Like, we're going to make him throw to T. Higgins. We're going to make what the Rams did to them. Like, what's just clouded up, cloud being covered two. And just let's make it murky on them.

Let's make him be, what's make Joe Burrow be meticulous and matriculate. down the field and find underneath options. Work Tyler Boyd over and over as opposed to just getting dunked on down the field. And I think that's what's going to happen to them. I'm optimistic that they're going to continue to grow, but it's also, I think all your hesitancy is the ones I have. So I kind of like, I hedge my bets a little bit with the six. It's like one of those, like they seem like they should be better.

But I think I always bring a bunch of Shield talked about when we were talking about our gambling segment. He goes, man, for stretches at a time, this looks like the worst offense ever. And then all of a sudden you have two series where they score two touchdowns off of like a big play. It's like, yeah, that's kind of what it is. That's kind of what this offense is. So I'm hoping they eliminate some fat at least. When you look at the way the Titans played them last year, they got sacked nine times in that game. Eight of them are when he was not being blitzed. They're going to, they're not going to get blitzed anymore. By the end of last season,

teams understood that. We're not going to give you answers to the test. We're not going to make this easy on you. So if teams are playing more shell, they're not going to blitz you. There's going to be all those bodies and coverage. You're going to see, I assume, a ton of simulated pressures. Because if teams can't blitz, how are they going to change the picture on you? And that's what the Titans do. That was a huge part of what the Titans game plan was. Multiple defensive coordinators I've talked to over.

I always like asking guys, what's the most interesting thing you watch this spring? It's just like a fun conversation. And multiple defensive coaches said the Titans simulated fire zones in the way that they did those pressures. And I think that it's influence of the league still. I think you're going to see more and more of it. I think this is going to be a team that sees a lot of it. So I'm bullish on them, but I still think that there are a couple little things that are lingering in my mind. Who's seven for you?

Seven is the Ravens. And I just think this, I think it's going to be a good year for them. I think they're eating some of their vegetables. I'm hoping anyways, Greg Roman's limiting his 400-page passing book, passing concept books, so maybe about 14 pages. I, of course, can't wait for Rashad Bateman to watch him this year. I think he is a better stylistic fit to Lamar. I mean, last year, Hollywood Brown was just not good for them, how the role that they had for him, even if his counting stats were okay, he was such an inefficient player for them that I think when they were trying to get to those plays down the field, which they started having to as the season went along because they're playing their ninth string running back and the lines decimated is, you know, Hollywood Brown like throws of 20 or more air yards. His EPA play is negative 0.39.

It's like, it's just, it's like you might as well just not throw it and take a sound. then try and launch it up there because it was just a negative play for him. And I love Mark Andrews, him, Lamar, obviously have a great fit. So I'm talking about the passing game because I do think this running game is going to be just by default better. And hopefully you have a healthy J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards coming back. But I like the offensive line, how they've replenished it. They got some interesting tight ends behind Mark Andrews. Even some of these role-playing receivers, I'm not as high as some people are.

I wouldn't say, like, oh, they're going to be great, but they're interesting. Like Devin Duvonne Duvonne. I like Tylin Wallace at Oklahoma State. This is his second year. I think he could be a nice little underneath kind of guy. I don't know. I think they have a lot of nice, like, solid players as maybe just stars. I don't know Rashad Bateman, but that might just be my private star.

But I'm excited to see what this passing game looks like. I think Omar's going to be hellbent on having a big year. No kidding. But I really do. I think he knows that he's basically in a contract year. So I think he has some incentive to really, really, you know, tear the league apart. I just, I don't know. I like the winder bomb.

We already talked about him. I just think through sheer health, they're going to be better. Like, that's really what it is. No team lost more games, a justice game's lost according to football outsiders than the Ravens last year. And on record, football outsiders have been doing it for like a decade. And no one has lost more games than the Ravens did last year, especially on offense, even if you go by units. And so I just think by natural law of order, there will least be a.

Above average to good, and I think they just have a lot more incentive to be very good. Quarterback, personnel, and their offensive line blows. Didn't all pro left tackle who didn't play last year? Yeah. They're starting Andrew Bill to wave off the bench, off the street. It's important. Those little tiny, I mean, it's not a little tiny thing, but just reminding yourself of that stuff is important. I think they're going to be good.

They easily could have been in my top 10. I more so just wanted to talk about the Colts and making a point with them. So no problem with that whatsoever. I have the Rams at 7. Do you have them higher than that? Slightly. Okay. So I have the Rams at 7.

I can understand some questions about this. Offensive wine movement. Their pass protection was such an important part of why their offense was able to thrive last year. The way that Stafford was able to kind of hang on to the ball, find secondary receivers late in plays, how long developing. a lot of their concepts were, especially out of empty. They have tricks to do it, right? Those little plays were they're chipping guys, and they did a really good job of helping their five guys up front.

But I think that swapping no move in for Whitworth, theoretically it'll be fine. You know, he's been good at the action that we've seen him. He was really good in that playoff game where he had to step in. But I still think that it's a question. Coleman Shelton, who's, I think, going to be their starting right guard, especially after Logan Brust, tore his ACL and MCL in the preseason. I think he's looked pretty good.

I don't think that's going to be an issue, but just, you know, a couple moving pieces and just stuff to pay attention to. Stafford's elbow, little things like that. But that's really it. Other than that, I just have so much faith in the offensive coaching staff, even with losing one more guy, the fact that they lost their offensive coordinator again, and I'm just not that concerned about it. Offensive line coach is still the same. I think they've done a really good job out of getting the most out of that personnel group. And I'm really excited about watching Ellen Robinson and Cooper Cup play together. They do such a good job.

And I think that Stafford will now allow them to do this even more, where the evolution and be able to drive the offense forward and being slightly different every year while having that pillar of quarterback play that they didn't necessarily have with golf, I just have so much faith in their ability to figure it out and be good on that side of the ball. I think it's justified at this point. Yeah, I have them fifth. And so I, I mean, really can't add much more. the Stafford elbow is, you know, keeping an eye on that, two eyes on that now.

It's getting a little weird how far it's gone along. But just like you said, of course, Cooper Cup, a receiver. I want to see Alan Robinson have a bounce back year. One of my better, like, more favorite players in the league. And that's why I was kind of more, I wasn't mad but disappointed in his play last year. And I think it's because he didn't want to live in Chicago anymore. Like, I get why, though. It's not because I'm sure he loved the city, but I'm sure.

But I think his work situation wasn't great. great. It's hard to blame him. Yeah, I get it. I totally get it. But, you know, but the offense aligned, even when there's such a greater sum of their parts, that's what's always cool watching those Ramso lines is, yes, I mean, Whitworth and all that and Saffold before. But it's just like they're always kind of some of the parts. They always have good rules. So it's kind of like, that's why every time I get a little hesitant with them, it's like, well, they always figure it out. Like, they always have kind of answers to do everything. So I'm not going to, I'm a lot of like prior history. I'm taking here. It's like they've proven that they're able to do this. They've got some interesting young players too. Bryson Hopkins, number 88, they're tight end. He looked great in the preseason game. They cut kind of Blanton because Bryson Hopkins was playing so well.

And then they have this other guy, Jacob Harris, who's this UCF athlete. He used to be a soccer player. But he's like 6'6. He can run like a 438 and jump like 42 inches. He's ridiculous. And he's a tough blocker. But you can tell they're interested in using him because they use them kind of as a tight end.

They split them out at receiver. So they got some like these interesting big athletes that I'm curious how they're going to like operate with them. Like are they used them more in the red zone? The run game is more. That was the next thing I was going to bring up. Hopefully. That's that's one area where you. Yeah.

I know. Two things. I think that's a little bit of residency bias because of how bad it looked during the, during the playoffs. Yes. When Cam Acres is not ready to play. He's just not ready to play. That's important. I think that he.

will be better. I also, in chatting with people there, I think this is real. When you spend all of your offseason thinking about how you're going to evolve and retool your passing game, there's only so much practice time. Right. And I think that's happened to the bills at times over the last few years. I think it's happened to the chiefs at times over the last few years. It's not as easy as people think to flip that switch where, oh, we're getting these juicy you run looks, let's just run the shit out of the ball. It's not always easy to do that. I mean, when you're this team...

Double teams take chemistry. Like, double teams take chemistry. You have to know when the guy comes off to get the linebacker. Like, it takes time for those guys to get that. I think that, and I do believe that that was a part of why they didn't run the ball was officially last year. They were 18th in EPA per rush during the regular season. They were obviously really bad in the playoffs.

And I do think the part of that is because they were so focused on what the passing game would look like and becoming a passing team. And I think that's real. And I feel like after one year removed from having to spend all of your time and energy and focus figuring out how we're going to unlock Matthew Stafford, now we know. You know, you have that established in place. And now can you figure out what the run game looks like a little bit more? Cammakers is further removed from that injury. So I do think the running game will be better this year for several different reasons.

Yeah. It's almost like regression to the mean of a Rans rom game. It really is. It's funny is that they were running this empty, heavy. vertical passing game, and there's still a reason. Stafford had the lowest distance to go on third down since 2018 for any quarterback. So his average third down to go was 6.4 yards, which is the best of any quarterback has

had since 2018, like for their season. So what they were doing, our first and second down was still working. And that's with a running game that we thought was average to below average last year. Now, imagine if that's above average. It's just going to make their lives easier, that they were able to make it easy on themselves while attacking vertically without a kind of stature. steady eddy run game behind them. I think that's pretty interesting. It speaks to what McVeigh and

Stafford were doing last year. So you had the Bengals at six. I have the Eagles at six. Are the Eagles in your top ten? They are not. I know. That was, uh, that was, that was, that was my spiciest one. So here's the, I understand the reservations. I totally do about Jalen Hertz and about where he can go. Where do you think the Eagles finished in passing DVA last season? Like, ninth? Fourteenth. The Eagles were 14th in passing DBOA last season. They were 10th and overall weighted DVOA last season. They have A.J. Brown now. Yep.

It just seems like, and I understand the concerns, and I understand people that might be hesitant about the ceiling, but I still think that they belong in a top 10 conversation. What A.J. Brown does for them, the layups that A.J. Brown can turn into big plays, all of different ways they can use him. And I also just love the way that the pieces fit together on this team. You think about the receiving core,

and I think they're going to live in 11 personnel more than they did last year and more than they had, even during times in the Doug Peterson era. I love the way the pieces fit together because you have Brown, you have Devante Smith, you have Zach Pascal, Kwez Watkins. The different roles those guys can play. If we want to get an 11 and grind the shit out of you, we have Pascal that we can put inside. We have AJ Brown that we can put inside.

If we want to really push the ball over, vertically. We can use Quez Watkins as a vertical slaughter. Somebody's stretching things on the outside. Dallas Goddard is a very good player. They have the best offensive line in football. So even if you have concerns about Jalen Hertz and what he can ultimately be, I still think that the rest of the supporting cast and a coaching staff that showed a lot of flexibility and self-awareness last season, I have a lot of faith in them being really good on that side of the ball this year. But I don't blame you for not having them in there. I know. It's that Bucks game in the playoffs is just burned.

of my brain. I get it. I know. And once you put the tape out, and that's, I know now everyone runs a Todd Bulls defense, but there's a lot of stuff that's translatable when you play the Eagles. So that, but all your arguments make sense. I love this offensive line. I love what the coaching staff did.

Like the run game was so cool last year and how they were doing stuff off of it. They realized what Jalen Hertz is good and bad at, and they just leaned the hell into it. They go balls. Hey, let's throw some out sale routes to Dallas Goddard. Like he was monster. So many corner routes to Dallas Goddard. So many cornerouts. And Hertz can throw the shit out of him.

Like he is so good at throwing those. Because it's outside the numbers. So he can see it. That's why. And my hesitancy was with Brown. We talked about this, I think, with Stephen Ruiz and with the receiver stuff is, you know, his best stuff is on endbreakers. And Hertz is iffy throwing over the middle.

He has that issue. He likes to extend a lot of plays outside the pocket. If he comes out in the first month of the season and he's operated from the pocket and really dicing guys over the middle, I'll be like, holy shit. this offense. This offense could, like if Hertz takes even just a half step forward as a passer, this offense could go gangbusters. Because just that offensive line is so good. It's just that I'm scared of that. I'm scared if they can't eke that out of them. If bullets start flying, he has a couple of misthrows and also he's not feeling confident, he starts getting to

scramble mode. I can see a lot of games getting away from them, even if they have, I think, a dynamic run game, you know, Miles Sanders is banged up. But I love that offensive line. But Hertz is going to be such a good runner as well. So I think their floors, really high, but it's up to hurts to determine that ceiling. Like no shit, like most quarterbacks determined the ceiling, but I think especially so with the Eagles. I have faith in them pushing that ceiling a little bit further,

and that's why I have them here. How can they access that area of the field is a huge, huge question? Is it more under center play action? More of that quick hitting stuff that we saw Tennessee do over the last few years. You'd be silly not to look at it and try to find answers from that. What that looks like out of shotgun, if they want to live there a little

bit more. It's not totally seamless the way that he fits into the offense and the way that they can use him, obviously, based on how they didn't throw the ball in that area all of last year. But I do think that they can do it more often this year and kind of unlock some things. And those coaches are creative. Like you said, they're willing to adapt. They're not going, these are my ball plays. Let's call them. They're willing to totally revamp the offense on the fly. I mean, they have this, this isn't theory. They did it last year. On the fly. It wasn't a by week change. They changed this offense midseason and it worked it worked really well for six eight weeks you know maybe him longer than that until they met Todd Bowles and the Bucks defense but until that point though

they I mean it was really cool it was really impressive we've talked about many of times but it's a feather in their cap into the offensive coaching staff being able to do that last year I really like offensive coaches that don't come from one specific place yeah and that's how Shane Steichen and Nick Siriani are. Talking to Shane Steichen, you ask him, what do you believe and why do you believe it? There's no answer. There's no specific answer.

This guy used to coach Philip Rivers. Yeah, this guy was a Philip Rivers guy. And Norv Turner, yeah, yeah. So it's based on it. He, I think you learned a lot about how you sequence plays and call a game from Norve, but think about Norve's offense compared to later versions of that Philip Rivers offense. There's so many different ways he's had to coach and think about offensive football.

and even accessing a lot of the college stuff they did last year. I just think that there's an open-mindedness and malleability to this staff that sets them up for success. I just truly believe that. And I think you saw that last season. All right. So you had the Rams at 5. We talked about this team that I have at 5 a little bit at the beginning. I have the Packers at 5.

Okay. I totally understand your reservations. I just believe in it. I just don't know what else to do. So I, the game. We talk about games that are seared into my mind. You know what game is seared into my mind with the current situation in Green Bay? Every Packers game against the Bears the last decade?

No. Oh, Jesus. I see that in my nightmares every single night. It's the game they played against the Chiefs in 2019. You remember that game? Aaron Jones scores a touchdown on a sluggo lined up as the number one receiver to the left side. He scores another touchdown on that game on a tunnel screen lined up as the number one receiver to the left side. Devante Adams

did not play in that game. Devante Adams is the best receiver in football. We're going to get into this a little bit later this week when I, you know, show with Seth Galena about some of the tweaks that some of these offenses are going to have to make with their new personnel. When you lose a superstar or they're in a different place and I'll be really curious how my conversations here go in Wisconsin over the next couple of days. There's so many aspects of that offense where the entire concept and idea was built

around Devante, rightfully so. So many advantage throws on early downs that are extension of the run game. So many RPO's where Rogers kind of gets to control the offense and hold it in his hands. His target rate from the slot last year was truly insane. When he would line up there, they were throwing him the ball because of the looks that they were getting out of that. So there are so many different things that they have to tweak because of how varied his usage was that I understand being concerned about it. but I just think that the staff has done a really, really good job. I think that even with some of the concerns about their offensive line injuries,

Bakhtiari was reported today, a press conference going on about a block away right now that I should have been at, that he's going to start practicing individual drills. So he's going to come off the Pup list, which is huge. El Jankich is already off the Pup list. Zach Tom, their fourth round pick, has looked very good in the preseason. Nate, if they find another fucking starting tackle in the fourth round of the NFL draft, I'm going to lose my mind. Oh, why?

It was because your favorite team can't, like, I do not, I do not know how I'm going to react if Zach Tom just steps in as they're starting right tackle and is a good player from day one. I'm, it's not going to be good. It's not going to be good.

It's one of those things where I know, I love the Packers' Offens of Line Coach. I'm blanking on his name right now. Adam Senevich, who's now their office coordinator. So Luke Buttkiss is now their office line coach. Buck is the Offens line coach. He was the assistant, right? Yeah.

But there's honestly last year like I think there was just like tweets where people are like, who's your assistant coach of the year or something? Dennis Allen was my one. But it was really my number two was the Packers Offensive Line coaches. Like because I just thought they're sound. Like they're really sound. So it's either their talent evaluation or usually in a scouting room or in a scouting department, just like a little inside baseball or inside football, I guess, is you have a cross checker for each scout.

So you have an area scout that has the West Coast. and then he's also in charge of receivers. So it's just to get more grades, more data points on these guys. That's at least how we did in the Falcons. Whoever the offense-aligned cross-checking scout for the Packers is, like that's who teams should be asking going like, hey, who's your offense-align cross-checker? Like when they're trying to put a department together,

like another personnel department. Yeah, I'm going to steal him so I could get his grades and actually, like, you know, maybe find these middle round jems because they just do it year after year after year. Even just looking at the starters. It's just, you know, fourth round or six-round or second round of four-th rounder, second rounder. There's not a one next to any of those guys.

And they might be okay, which I don't know. That's just a little sidebar, which I think is interesting. I already got into my reservations about this Packers offense because I'm just the receiver. Sammy Watkins is going to have a lot of snaps. I totally understand. And it's hard to look at that receiver group and get excited. But if they can just piece it together, you get dubs and Sammy Watkins and when

Christian Watson comes back and somehow piece it all together with Lazzard and what is Lizard's role look like as they kind of move into this new version of themselves? Al-Lazard is a good football player, by the way. He's a good player. People knock him like, oh, he can't separate. That guy is super efficient, eye test and stat-wise. That guy is a really good football player. Like, he is.

And how do they use Jones and Dillon? What are their usages look like in the passing game? How much 21 pony personnel do they use? I just think that they can get there. This is a bet on Matt LaFlewer and Aaron Rogers, period. Yeah. And their offensive line development process. So, by the way, Zach Tom, okay?

Who do you think? I want to list these names off for you. Three of the top five physical profile similarities to Zach Tom at the NFL Combine. Number one, Joel Betonio. He's decent. Number three, Rishon Slater. Not bad. Number five, Ali Marpet.

Okay. He's a tweener. He's 6'4, 3,05. He's got 33-inch arms. I'm sure he's like, what can he do? they looked at the movement skills 92nd percentile 20 yards short shuttle which is a very good indicator of offensive line success

it's actually probably the number one if you're looking at it the packers are also very very intentional with their physical benchmarks at a lot of these positions and they win a lot of bets because of it the whole receiver discussion this off season everyone's like oh they're going to draft this guy if they're not under John Doxson's never going to be a Green Bay Packer if they're not under 200 pounds they're not even on the list

like they don't even deal with it So you look at it, 92nd percentile 20-yard short shuttle, 95 percentile three cone, 98 broad jump, 93rd vertical. Just bet on athletes. Bet on athletes and we'll coach them up.

Bakhtiari was similar to that, and they've done a very, very good job with it over the years, and I think that they may have done it again, and I'm going to be so pissed off, just so incredibly pissed off. So this is a bet on those guys, and we'll see how it works out.

I understand why you're not willing to be, as enthusiastic. about making the same bet. I mean, it's, yeah, it's weird. I want to see this Packers team in action. I mean, you can't watch shit at practice because they don't watch you see anything.

And then also like, they don't play the starters in the preseason. They bench like 30 guys. So I just, they tweak, they do, it's the greatest hits offense. That's what we've kind of called it.

Like it's kind, you can see the influences that they take from other places, which has always been fun. So now that they have a team that I think they're kind of, they're trying to do the classic, oh, Rogers completed a ball to eight different receivers. Like,

they're trying to do that. offense. I want to I'm curious what it looks like because it was a nice easy button that they could hit as soon as they went into the red zone. They had these super sweet designer plays the Devante Adams stuff. So now what happens when you have a much more kind of good above average players as opposed to the best receiver in football? I'm just curious. I it's credit to them for understanding where their bread was buttered. But now I want to see when they have a kind of a different meal in front of them. I assume our top four are going to be the same in some order. You have the bucks at four. I also have. have the bucks at four. Funny. Funny. My only argument against them is just the offensive line injuries that are already starting to pile up.

So Jensen's out for the season. Aaron Steny got hurt last night, I believe, or sometime this weekend. So it's him and Robert Hainesie, you know, kind of fighting. Worf's has a oblique injury right now. So just those are, that's in the back of my mind. Obviously, the receiver room is coming back healthy, but they'll piece that together. However, if Godwin even misses a couple games, you have some combination of Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and even this version of Julio Jones and Russell Gage, that's fine to me. Are you at all worried about the fact that Tom Brady just doesn't appear to be there or practicing?

When do we get concerned about that? I don't know. I mean, like, what's with these NFC quarterbacks are just like not playing a kid in Fiv and Stafford? It is a little worrisome. I mean, if he was 34, I wouldn't be, but he's 44, 45. So that's a little weird. And also, like, they're just not talking about it. Like, no one knows where he's at, like, at all.

Somebody, weren't they, it wasn't there a theory? They was on the mass singer or something like that. I saw that. I was like, that's hilarious. Not getting into that. We need the season to start. We're getting into that. I'm not entertaining.

If he was on the mass singer, I'm happy to not have missed that story. If we don't get that in and somehow we didn't hit on the mass singer theory, I think we'll be okay. Yeah, but I mean, the rest of this team, like you said, you brought the receivers. I talk about offensive line scouting for the Packers, receiver scouting for the Bucks, whoever he was in charge of that because their backups are like Tyler Johnson's had a good preseason. They're really challenging them. I can tell they're challenging him. Like they even have just random dudes.

Like of course, you know, Scotty Miller are a guy. They have like an undrafted free aid that Jared Stearns, who's like this little short guy from Western Kentucky who caught like 150 balls last year. And he looks good. And like it's they just get these guys. It's kind of cool. Tight end is a little interesting. like Brate, I like Brate. They signed Kyle Rudolph off the streets.

You know, he wears a number to eight now, which is, that doesn't seem like a Kyle Rudolph number at all. It's disgusting. The fact that Julio is an 85 and Kyle Rudolph is an eight is, I'll never go. Yeah, let's, let's put that. We did get some news on that front, though. Apparently, our Greg Alman overheard Julio telling a fan that he has not been and had a number assigned to him for the season yet.

And after cuts, it may be a little bit different. So it's like their depth chart. Well, I'm just, I'm concerned about Scotty's number 10. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I'm worried about Scottie's number 10. No, but I mean, but also why I'm not too worried about the tight end stuff is, and we've talked about this on this pod is a traditional Ariens offense.

I noticed this left, which is that tight end's a blocker. He's a de facto extra tackle. That's what Jermaine Gresham did. Like he, Jermaine Gresham never had like more to like 30 or 40 targets when he was in Arizona. And now they, I like their fourth round pick, Kate Otten. He's a no gloves. Why tight end?

Like there doesn't play with gloves. He looks like a long snapper. And like, but he actually looked decent in that role in the preseason games I've watched. I'm really, really high in that rookie running back, Rashad White. I keep bringing his name up, but I really am. He looks the part. He's a great receiver.

They're playing Leonard Furnett in the second preseason game to literally get him in shape. Like, that's why they gave him a bunch of reps this weekend. So I like this other younger back that's faster with better hands and like actually he's picking up blitz protection. Like they already talk about how he's been pressing for a rookie. So I don't know. I keep banging that drum. not just, again, that he's on my dynasty fantasy teams,

but also just because I really like him as a player. But that's, I don't know, I, it's hard to bet against Tom Brady. After I just said, I'm not betting on Aaron Rogers, but I'm betting on Tom Brady and those receivers. I mean, that's really what I'm betting on. And I'm betting on a better run game just because I think the talent's better. The offensive line is the only thing that's keeping them from the top three for me and the fact that it's already started.

That's it. The bucks are going to be good. All right, who is it number three for you? Well, before they got banged up, the bucks were number two for me when I did this on Minas Pod. But they dropped off just, they just dropped off a tad for me. I think that's perfectly reasonable.

All right. Who's three for you? Three is, let me just scroll up. Oh, three is the Chargers. Same. Yep. So I'm going to guess we have somewhere top three.

Yeah, bet on Justin Herbert, bet on this, you know, this offensive line being better to protect outside the right tackle. Even if Corey Lindsley is more of an above average player, he's still an above average starter at center.

That's nice. And what he does for them between the ears, you can't overstay how to put in this. Chill it out. Yeah, and especially with that type of offense. I know it's a lot of verbiage. So having something to take off Herbert, even though Herbert's a genius. But it just helps.

It just helps him play fast. He's gotten there's, he's doing more of that this year just because that's, that was always the development plan for him is to take a lot of that off of him in year one, give him more of a year two. But Corey still has more say than I think you would typically have if you have a quarterback with Justin's acumen. But just because I think they trust Corey so much in that realm. it'd be stupid not to use him. So I think it's kind of a checks and balances system that they have between the two. That's how I understand it. We talked about this last pod, talking about the quarterback's new places and how, you know,

some quarter, like Matt Ryan's getting more, you know, leeway to do all that stuff. My preferred way, and this is just because the systems I've been in is the center has, everything, handles everything, but the quarterback can trump them whenever he wants. It's veto power. I think that's exactly how they set it up. Yes. That's how, that's my preferred. system. But you have to trust the center. And when you got a multi-year starter, Corey Lindsay,

that you do trust the center. But that is, you put a lot of power to them. But I always like that. We're the quarterback. But they have to have a great relationship. They're developing that relationship. So I really like that. You don't receiver wise, you and I have talked about this off air. You know, I, you know, they don't have the juice that I would prefer. It's the only thing I'm worried about. It is. And I get it. Herbert is a line drive-thower. He can pin it on big bodies. But that's still. Still, if you're not threatening a team vertically, and we're talking about safety's playing top down more and more and more and more. If you're not threatening, they'll play at 12 yards instead of 16.

It just makes everything over the intermediate parts of the field tighter. So that's one hesitation I have. But you know who's the best receiver on go and post routes from the outside? I know that's kind of niche, but just think of vertical routes from the outside. The best receiver since 2019 is Mike Williams. Yeah, I mean, that's what he does. That's what he does. He's a contested catch guy.

And so they have their answers. It's just maybe not what I prefer. If you're trying to find optimism about their ability to create explosive plays without that third level lift the top off guy, just look at the Rams last year. Yeah. The Rams didn't have that guy. And they consistently were able to create those explosive plays. Because it's really, if you think about it now, and defensive coaches have said this, and it makes total sense, if they know you're not going to throttle down, they're just going to play over the top of you if you're one of those guys. It's not that hard to account for that sort of.

speed when you're playing these sorts of structures. So you're really having to use multiple players to bleed out those zones and kind of come black back through it. That now becomes a question of pass protection. Because if you're having those big developing routes coming all the way across the field and you have to run multiple guys through those zones, it's can you hold up? They couldn't hold up last season. And I know the right tackle is still a concern.

They have not figured out who it is yet between Pipkins and Storm Norton. That is the one spot which I got. I'd be worried about that. But last year, it was the guard and the tackle. They lost Odei Abouche early in the season, and they were trying to figure out that spot. Michael Schofield played a ton of snaps for them last year. Michael Schofield doesn't even have started for the Bears right now.

Putting Zion Johnson in that place and having one more offensive line spot that you feel good about is huge. It's going to make them better as a unit. And if they feel like they can hold up a little bit more, do we see some of those big, big concepts from that? offensively. Last year, on first and second down, where do you think Justin Herbert ranked in A-Don, on first and second down?

Oh, like, 22nd. 31st of 38 quarterbacks. That's, yeah, that's so much. And then on third down, it was eighth because it's like, all right, just go make a play, big guy. Yeah. I want to see them be more aggressive in those spots. And I think that they're, the way that they've explained it to me, and Brandon's

Taylor says that I thought it was funny. So we want to be like a 90s Eastern Conference basketball. ball team with our receiving core. Just length and bully the shit out of people. And I can understand that. You look at them, pretty much all of their pass catchers have at least 33-inch arms. All of them. Kenan, Joshua Palmer does.

Donald Parham, 6-9, Gerald Everett does. They have so much length. And if teams are going to try to keep a roof on you, can you make contested catches in traffic in condensed areas of the field? I think that's how they've built the receiving. And can you find enough explosives with some of the designs that we've talked about? And they actively sought that out this year. Like, can we, where are our explosive plays coming from in today's NFL?

How can we find more of them? So I, and I have faith about their ability to do it. You have Justin Herbert, year two in the system. I just think that they're going to get there. I think no matter what they're going to be good. It's one of those. I mean, they're fourth in DVOA last year, which is like, yeah, but it's, it felt like they had so much room to, more room to grow, which is kind of funny.

I know. It's just one of those that's like, I know the, it's like, being a, like a counselor, I know your potential and you're doing a great job, but I really want you to major in this. And I think that would be really good for your studies. That's how I feel with them. I last year, the two games, we're talking about games seared in our brain. It was at the Broncos and at Baltimore. Those two games, and I could tell that they got gamed out of what they wanted to do, whether it was the protection, whether it was the backup running backs outside of, you know, outside of Eckler, not being able to identify who.

who they have in protection. So it wasn't just personnel as far as physically, but also mentally, the tight ends couldn't hold up. If you want to do play action and attack vertically, not just seven-step dropbacks, but the play action element, tight ends are running back have to know what the app they're doing. Because otherwise, I mean, that's an edge rusher or that's a guy blitzing and the running back runs right by them. Like that's what would happen a couple times.

Or they're late. Like Fangio against the Broncos, they just started going, hey, what's just blitz the running back every down? And that's what happened, or simulated, I should say. but the running back was like missing blocks. You know, I think it was Joshua Kelly in those games. So yes, they have Spiller, but I don't know what Spiller does him doing a lot of past pro in college as well.

So that always takes time. So that's scary for me too, is tied in a running back depth. But the other parts of this offense I really like. And again, we can talk about every team where he's like, oh, one injury, they could look bad. But it's like, but right now I see the vision. And I love big arm quarterbacks having big bodies to throw to. That's why I scream that Justin Fields doesn't have. any like six four ball winners because big arms need big bodies just because they are going to

pin it on you when I say pin it on you. Did you see that throw he made that past the year, the guy that cowboys against the cobblers? Yeah. Just pass his earhole to Keenan Allen. It's ridiculous. And Keen Allen had laid hands. Keen and Allen just act like nothing's happening. It's a freaky stuff.

And I love Joshua Palmer. Like I really like him. I think he's a great blocker. I think he's had a good camp. It's another size guy that runs a four or five and change. I mean, that's what they're, that's what they built it out.

of, but I like it. Once they get into the red zone, they're going to be so effective. Because then you got Herbert launching missiles to these big bodies. That's a good combination to have. So I don't know. I just want to open up on first and second down. Like you said, O line improvements one way that they can do that. I think the protection is a huge reason that they accomplish the policies.

And I think they have to feel better about it. It's a simple answer. When you spend a first round pick on a guard, you should feel a little bit better about it. Right. All right. Who's number two for you? Number two is the bills. All right.

Our one and two is flipped. Sweet. I, I, that's perfect. Bills, I believe when I was on Mena's pod, I had at, I had them at four. So funny. I, I've, I've, why do you feel better about them? Just like one Josh Allen throw in the preseason. If that's the reason I wouldn't fall, I wouldn't fall too because of that.

It was that they mixed up the personnel. I was sucker for it. They weren't, they did the 10 personnel with four wides, but then they were doing 12. They're doing 21. They're doing 11. They adjusted their rules already. I can tell with the offensive line. The game, we always.

always come back to was that Steelers game, week one, Steelers running simulated pressure over and over and over and over and the bills had no answers because they were like, what is this? You guys just punched this in the mouth 40 times in a row. That Josh Allen throw, the one I keep referring to, look it up if you haven't seen it. It's insane. He launches a 40-yard missile into the end zone for a touchdown to Gabe Davis. And on that one, they're in empty. It's second and long, I think.

They're an empty. And the Broncos bring a simulated pressure. the bill's offensive line had an answer for it. The right tackle doesn't waste himself. He immediately goes because when you're on a similarly pressure, one of the ends is going to drop. So that end dropped into coverage. And then the defensive tackle looped around,

the right tackle was ready for it. So they didn't waste anybody and create a free runner on the second along. So that's why he had this beautiful pocket. And Alan extends to play a little bit. This is the psycho shit that Josh Allen lets you do. That Mahomes, Alan, and Herbert, but he doesn't play in this type of offense. This is what they let you do.

They're running an empty, like five-step-step-drop concept. Those routes are usually 10 to 15 yards. By the way, I do want to see more of that from the Chargers. I do want to see them steal more of these ideas. I agree. Attack intermediate. It's a hard stuff. You have the quarterback that can do it.

Attack the intermediate areas. That's what you need to do. But they're running this five-step concept. And on top of it, Gabe Davis is running a post out of empty. You don't see posts out of empty because that is a seven-step concept. So they're running seven-step elements of a quick game. look. It's just like, it's just like what we're talking about empty with the chips with the ramps. But this is their way. When you have a fake quarterback is that you can do that shit. When you have a

fake quarterback, you can do that. This, it's not that's, that's, that's why I want to beat over the head right now for everyone that's listening right now. This isn't normal. That's not fair to be able to do that. And the fact that they're now doing some of the more quote unquote normal football stuff, the I formation stuff, just straight running game, straight passing game, not just RPO's. And then they have the RPO's elements in there. And then they're, and then they're, they have the freaky design Frankenstein's monster plays. Holy crap. Like this is,

this offense could be really, really, really fun. Like they had another play. This is the last protection thing I'll bring up. They're in 11 personnel. This is just this weekend. But I know it's preseason,

but you can start seeing the flavors teams are trying to go for, even with the backups, because they're running their base plays. Your one, day one through five, install plays and preseason. So you know what they're kind of basing their offense out of. They're in a bunch formation, 11 personnel,

three wide receivers. And why teams play action out of 11 personnel, why teams have hesitancy with that or they used to, was you have a tight end on an edge. And that's a little scary sometimes. There's not a lot of Y tight ends anymore. That's truly, my dad made a living doing this,

but there's not a lot of 6, 7, 255 pound wide tight ends that are just true blockers. What the bills did, and there's different ways to do this. This is why the Rams have been geniuses. They either slide another tight end over or tight end over, so you change the angle of attack, or what the bills did,

You have the receiver help out the tight end for a little bit and a leak out on a checkdown. So as opposed to just wasting him on another deep route, hey, help out. I'm going to be your checkdown now. I'm a receiver checkdown after I just helped out the tight end. It sounds simple, but that stuff opens up your entire offense because now you're not scared of your tight end of Dossanox taking a charge against an edge player. You have the receiver helping him out for two Mississippi's. It's a long help and then he releases on his down and then Josh Allen could get rid of the ball and attack vertically. they're realizing what they are and they're making rules off of it.

And I love that. And I know this is with a new offensive coordinator, but he has been there. So I think he understands some of the limitations they had, but I'm loving this next step they're taking. They're not going to change much. And they're not going to change much from what they were at the end of last season, not what they were at the beginning of last season. I have two numbers that I would keep coming back to and why they're number one for me and kind of building the case. In the playoffs last season, out of 21 personnel, Josh Allen was 12 of 15. for 200 yards and three touchdowns.

Reggie Gilliam opened up the bill's offense. 13 yards per attempt on those plays. 0.67 EPA per dropback for context, the leaders in the league are about 0.25. So it was about two and a half times more efficient than the best passing plays in the NFL last season because it makes teams play against you in simple looks. Even if they're going to sit in nickel and they're not going to play base defense,

they still have only a limited menu that they can draw from. And I think that the bill is absolutely tap into something. They extended Reggie Gillum this offseason. He's back. They found something with that. The other one that I was very happy when I saw this because the eye test told me this. Last year, Josh Allen faced more cover two snaps than any other quarterback in the NFL, which is not surprising based on the way teams started to play against the bills.

From weeks one through nine, he had averaged 8.92 air yards per attempt against cover two. He was 12th in the NFL in EPA per pass on those plays. fine, but not great. Yeah. From weeks 10 through 18, that air yard's number dropped from 8.92 to 4.56. And he went from 12th to 9th in EPA per play on those plays. He's taking the layups. That's why James Cook is here.

He's there because they are number one priority this offseason. Number one, multiple people said this to me, unprompted, when I was there a couple weeks ago, run after catch, run after catch. How can we create run after catch? And they wanted to do it with McKissick. They ultimately got it with James Cook. They want to influence Josh Allen into not trying to bite it off every single time. And you have to give him a reason to take the checkdown.

So if he thinks that the checkdown can turn from a four-yard completion into a 15-yard gain because it's going to James Cook, he will do it more often. And that is a conscious thing that they're trying to build into their offense. So you have that element now with Cook. You have Isaiah McKenzie now, who is all juice added into that offense. Now, he is their slot guy. I mean, James and Crowder is fine. James and Crotter speaks to the depth on this team.

But having McKenzie and Davis and Stefan Diggs and James Cook there now. Davis looks so good right now. It all makes sense, man. And you combine that with the superhero quarterback, the fake quarterback that they have. No. Even if you have concerns about the transition, to Dorsey, which I think is totally fine. Their offensive line coach is gone.

You know Bobby Johnson. Aaron Cromer is their offensive line coach now. Aaron Cromer's been around forever. I think they will run more outside zone than they have in years past because Cromer is there. But that's just a little tweak that I think could give them more answers in the run game if they wanted it to. And even the guys they brought in, Roger Saffold came from Tennessee. He lived in that. Mitch Morse moves extremely well.

Their offensive line went from a group that was really a lot of big push you around guys when Coach Ford was starting for them. Now they move well. Bates does. Spencer Brown has very good movement skills. I'm a little bit worried about this team in pure dropback situations with Brown at right tackle and Saffold at left guard. But that's why you have Josh Allen. You can afford to build your team. And the smoke of mirror stuff that they do. That's why you do that. You can build your team in different ways when you have a quarterback that can mitigate pressure in that way. He just answers so many problems. And I had my concerns about, you know, I think Brian Daibald is so good and what he did. for them is so good, but I do think that the continuity with Dorsey and just the personnel that

they have, there's just too many arguments for me as to why they should be there. And continuity is the reason I have them one. I have the chiefs too. But I mean, why do you have the chiefs at one? Because I understand it. But, well, I want to say, that game for Josh Allen at New England in the regular season. 100%. Remember that he was checking it down, checking it down, checking it down. And then he started hit a light pole went off for him. He was like, oh, I could just hit this for eight yards and then also the defenders come up and now I can hit him over the top. It's the game I brought up to everyone when I was there. It is the game I brought up to everyone because that was the moment.

The second half of the bucks game and then at New England and at the end of the season. And that's when he became a quarterback. Like it's there's, yeah, it's the meme. Like this is the day so and so became president. That was the day Josh Allen became a quarterback. Like that, that was what happened there. But also you didn't mention my boy, Khalil Shakir, who looks like a monster right. Yeah.

It's just that they have so many frequent. players and that OJ Howard if they want to use him every once in a while. That speaks to all the personnel usage. They can get into all these different looks. And that, that's tough to defend. When you are not, when it's like, shit, they're in 12 personnel. Okay. Oh, and they're going tempo and they're spreading it out.

Now they're an 11 person. Now they're in 10 personnel. They're bringing a receiver back to protect. Like that for a defense. And then also it's like, yes, okay, we got a great game plan. And then there's Josh Allen being Professor Chaos. Well, now that is the shitty thing now is that now if they're in 21, they hit you with like some sort of downhill play action throw.

They play tempo. You got to keep those guys on the field. On the next play, it's first and 10. They break apart the empty. Reggie Gilliams out at number one. It's like, all right, what do we do now? There's so many different ways that they're just going to have people spinning. And when you have that and you have the quarterback to make it all work, it's tough, man.

It's insane. It's really tough. Yes. But I just hyped up the bills, put them over. But no, chiefs are my number one team or offense, I think. one, I think it's, I think Mahomes is on a war path. I really do. I think watching him in the preseason, that's a pissed off player.

And I mean that in a good way. I really think they ate their vegetables this off season. I think those Bengals games are burned into their brain. And I think they are, they're leading into what they're, they're, they figure bills and chiefs in their own way. And we've, we've hit this up before. They hit their limitations of what they can do. And now they're very similar story. It's really cool.

Actually, it's like in their own way. not the same offense at all, but just what limitations they reach were the same. As far as, and what I mean by that is what runs they can get to. If they're so spread heavy, they almost became basic because they were so spread heavy. And defenses are like, okay, we'll just play safe against you. And now I think the chiefs are doing the same thing as the Bill's art. They're trying to use different personnel groupings. It was interesting in that first preseason game.

They used the fullback a bunch. I know you don't want to read too much into it, just one drive. Andy Reid's being basic. But they still are getting to it. Like, they're not going to build the whole boat out of it. But at least they're going to sprinkle it in a little bit more. They're sprinkling in a ton of 12. But defenses, this is the NBA saying is, you are who you guard.

Defense just treat that like 11 with Travis Kelsey. But there's a lot more looks with Noah Gray and Blake Bell having real tangible reps, their tight ends and leading. And I think they're figuring out what they are as far as a run game and how to build off of it. This second preseason game, because Andy Reid is old school and he plays his starters. And it's great for me because I'm like, oh, okay, I can watch my home. to do some cool shit. They're running play action stuff off of the play I call Y insert,

which is Blake Bell or Noah Gray. It's a lead block. If you picture I formation football or a fullback's leading up on a linebacker, a play that's literally called Bob back on backer, this is the spread version of it. And this is the light personnel version of it. So as opposed to a fullback, it's just a tight end doing that. And if you have these big tight ends that can do it,

Noah Gray's not big, but he played fullback at Duke a little bit. It made sense. They're leaning into that person. And then, like, the play action that they showed, I've seen it in the preseason clips and in the preseason game or training camp clips preseason game is they ran a play action. So they made it look like that lead insert. The linebackers are coming up and then they run play action off of it. They realize, okay, if defenses are going to play this way, they're going to drop eight against us. They're not going to blitz us.

They're going to, I think a lot of teams, I think we say too high. I think we're going to see more cover two this year, just straight cover two because that's another element of. defense is going, hey, we'll make the offense get bored. Like, they're daring the offenses to be boring. That's what they're doing. I think the chiefs are really going, okay, we ate our vegetables. We are separating church and state. We are no longer doing RPO's as much.

They still do them, but not as much. And we're going to run the ball. We're going to run play action. We're sprinkling those old school type of traditional elements of the game of an offense. And I think they're just going to lean into it fully. I really do. I hope Andy Reid doesn't get bored after the first four weeks and he goes back to 70% pass. just make it like 62% pass.

You know, on those early. Just a little bit. It doesn't have to. When teams are dropping eight, just run the ball. Just run the ball. Just run the ball. Just run the ball. It's so easy.

It doesn't have to be this monumental change. And I also think the monumental change already happened. Last season, Mahomes was second in the NFL, an EPA per dropback from weeks 10 through 18. Okay. During that stretch, he was averaging 6.82 air yards per attempt. That was 25th. of 28 qualified quarterbacks. It's so weird.

This idea that they're going to have to do so many different things because teams are playing them this way and they don't have to hurry kill, they already did it. Yeah. They already did it. They already realized it. During the back half of last season and he was one of the best three quarterbacks in the NFL while having to adapt stylistically. They already know how to do this.

It's about how can we do one or two more things to take away those tiny wrinkles. If teams are going to run that designer shit on us on first down, we just have have to run the ball and be able to do it. That's it. And getting C.E.H. back, CH isn't a superstar, but their running game last year was not good. I mean, the numbers were fine. Like, they were an efficient running team overall because of how great the looks are.

But last season, they were 26th in the league in EPA per rush against five to six-man boxes. Like, they just need to get more when it's there. And I think him, and even if it's Pacheco or whoever, that's not Daryl Williams, if they can get a tiny bit more out of their run game consistently, I think that they're going to be more willing to take it when it's there. Absolutely. When you take that and combine it with one of the best offensive lines in the league, I think is fair to say. That is a strength of that group. Yeah.

What's the hardest thing to find in football? It's a franchise quarterback. Second hardest thing is building an offensive line, I think. They did. They have it. They have it. And they're strong, like you have a, no matter how you shake it, Moms is a top two quarterback to me.

I mean, no matter. He's number one to me. but he's a generational quarterback. He's an incredible player. He still looks great. Offensil line looks great. And they're at you type of runners. When I say at you,

they're more gap heavy. When I say gap heavy, think power. Think duo's a run I always talk about. That's an at you run. That Y insert play that I brought up. That's an at you run, even if it's out of a spread look.

And CEH, especially when it was coming from LSU, those were the runs he was best at. He's best with his shoulders facing the line of scrimmage. They were trying to do a lot of out of the, gun. Again, this is what I'm talking about, limitation of runs when you're in spread looks. They're trying to do a stretch runs. A stretch run, the runnerback has to go horizontal and they go 45 degrees vertical. You have to be such a good athlete to do that. CEH runs like a 4-6-5 generously, like 4-7. He is a downhill runner. So it's just let's lean into

that. What's lean into our personnel, like what they're good at. Our offensive line is going to, they're a bunch of ass kickers. I mean, they really are. They are brawlers. And they're good. and they're good athletes on top of it. Maybe not Orlando Brown. He's more just a, like, just a big lump out there, but he's still good. But they're at you, at you, at you. And I think they just are like, they, like you said, I'm so glad he brought up the second half.

They already realized this was happening to them. That last month of the season, they changed their run game up. The Bengals game at Cincinnati in week 17, their run game, they started, that's when they started doing the Y insert a little bit more. They started leaning into different runs because they're like, well, if you're going to run a five-man box against us, let's just get eight yards, even with the running backs that they were trotting out last year. So I think I just like it.

And the receiver room, I know there's hesitancy, but Kelsey is their ex-receiver, and then they're going to use MVS and Juju as their Y-tide-in. The pieces fit together. It makes sense. I think they're going to, I think they're going to be on a war path this year. I really do. That is like, I don't know, I shouldn't be a hot take, but that's one of the takes I really am standing by is that I think this Chief's offense and Chief's team is going to, I mean,

crazy. I think Mahomes is going to be good. But I think they're going to be extremely good. back to that more near that 2018 level than what we've seen maybe the last couple of years. And you can't blitz them. On top of that, you can't blitz them because four of the top five seasons against the blitz are by Patrick Mahomes and his four years starting. Like it's, I don't know.

I just think this team is going to punch a lot of teams in the mouth. They're going to stop liking it. And then they're going to hit them over the top. And I think it's going to be awesome. I really do. If you're playing two eye defenses, you're trying to get the safety in a bind. Either fill up the run or play the pass. And if you're doing it with Mahomes in a solid run game, it's, I think it has all the

chemistry for some some fireworks i really do do you have an offensive line do you have a top three ish quarterback and do you have a play caller that i feel good about yes are the are the scope position players good enough yes that's how i feel about the packers and the chiefs yeah i think i think the i think the chiefs have better weapons just in the passing game but if aaron jones is going to be a huge part of their passing game and and the way that it plays with dylan and all that i just think it's enough so i think i'm making similar bets i think the chiefs just have better past catchers. I think that that the group makes more sense to me and that's why I have them higher. All right. We got to get out of here because I got to speak to the Packers. I got to

head over there. All right, bud. We will talk to you later this week. We're going to do first year play callers, which I'm really excited about after kind of my travels and talking to a bunch of them over the last few weeks. So really looking forward to that show. Really appreciate you guys listening. We will be back tomorrow with Deontay doing some questions about NFL defenses. Very much looking forward to that. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your guest platform of choice. It would mean a lot to me. If you like the show, let us know.

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