The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Predicting the NFL's top-10 offenses in 2024

Episode Date: August 1, 2024

OK, we'll give you one right off the top. The 49ers are our top offense heading into the 2024 season. But which nine teams will join them in the top 10? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen offer up their predictions for this year's top-10 offenses on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Host: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Matt on X: @mattschneidmanTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. Derek Klesson is back, his second show with us. And this is an oldie but a goodie that we're trotting out today. We are ranking our top 10 offenses in the NFL. A lot of the same teams that we've talked about over the last couple years, offenses tend to be pretty stable.

And I think there are some teams that you just can't keep off of a list like this. So a lot of the offenses and units that other people have talked about in exercises like this, We're going to get into some of those. But we also talked about a lot of teams that we wanted to put on. It didn't. Some teams that we think could potentially be surprises and crack this group in if they didn't ultimately make our final list. So really enjoyed this conversation with Derek.

Let's get to it. Joining me now, it is my co-host here at the athletic football show. Derek, how are you doing? I'm doing great, man. It's still my first week here, so it still feels a little new. But glad to be jumping into another show. you're doing better than me. We're recording this on Tuesday afternoon.

I decided that it was going to be a good idea for me to take a red-eye flight from Seattle to Washington, D.C., where the Washington football team was practicing at 9 a.m. So I landed at 6.30 and then went straight to practice, and now I'm doing this. So I'm working on about one total hour of sleep from last night as someone who really can't sleep on planes. And I guess I just forgot that fact when I decided to try to execute this plan. So bear with me here as I try to power through this show. But this is the life. This is what this time in the calendar looks like.

And listen, I got to see some pretty sweet Jaden Daniels plays today down the field to Jahan Dotson. He actually was really good. And they're very excited about him. So it was worth it. It's always worth it to make these trips. But it doesn't come without sacrifice. So this is a flu-like-esque, flu game-esque performance, hopefully for me. And we'll see if I can push through.

and power through. Setting a fight like that is one of those things where you know better in the moment, but you're like, no, I'll be okay this one time. But then, though, I'll be okay this one time never comes. You're never okay that one time. No, I absolutely am not. But that's okay, because it's easy to get up for this show. We're going to do something today that I've never seen another football podcast do

as long as I've been doing this. We are going to predict what we think are going to be the top 10 offenses for 2024. This to me is a wholly new idea. I've never seen this executed elsewhere. So I'm very excited to blaze a new trail, carve out some new ground here in the football podcasting space. This is where we fully, this is where we're trailblazers. We're starting it off hot.

We're completely breaking the cycle and making things new. I like doing this exercise every year. And I think we'll continue to do this exercise every year. It's a fun thing to run through. And one of my favorite parts of this is trying to figure out the teams that didn't quite make it. And I want to start with that today because we, spoiler alert,

have the same top 10 teams in some order. That's frustrating on one level, but it also almost didn't happen. I wanted to put a couple of new teams, a couple of different teams on here so badly, and I couldn't get myself to do it with a couple of them. That's what I, if I were kind of laying out the teams that didn't quite make it,

the honorable mentions, I would put them into two different buckets. the teams I really wanted to put on here, but couldn't justify doing, mostly because I couldn't leave one of the 10 teams I included off. And the other bucket is teams that aren't on here whose fan bases are going to be really mad. Those are the two different buckets that I'm trotting out as we do these honorable mentions. Which one do you want to start with? Because I think the fan bases that are going to get mad might be the more interesting one. So let's do that first. There are a couple teams I have in mind when I say that.

Really, one and a half because there have been to pictures of this the last couple of days, and I was just at this team's training camp. I think there's a little bit of apathy that has set in with the Dallas Cowboys and the people who root for the Dallas Cowboys right now. So I'm not sure they'll be able to muster the anger. But there is another team in the NFC East that did not make my top 10 that I assume it's going to ruffle some feathers. And I did not do that on purpose, but we're going to let it ride. I also did not put the Philadelphia Eagles in my top 10.

And it feels crazy, right? Because if you just look at the raw talent, it seems like it would be impossible for an offense like this to not be top 10. You have AJ Brown, who is like a top at worst five receiver. Devonta Smith is a really good wide receiver too. Dallas Goddard is a really good tight end. They still have some good pieces on the offensive line. They go out and improve it running back with Saquan Barkley.

Like they have a lot of players. but then the more I thought about it, it just to me felt like so much of what let this offense do what it wanted to do was being able to stand on what like Jason Kelsey gave you both in terms of past protection, some of what he did in the run game. And then even just beyond his physical ability, just being able to set protections for the offense and kind of have that just glue that holds everybody together,

when you lose that and you're going into a new offense that is presumably going to be a lot more dropback passing with a guy like Kellan Moore, I just wonder what the offense is actually supposed to look like and what is actually going to hold everything together. And so this just feels like one of those things where they're definitely too talented to fail, right? They're not going to be bad. But getting them into the top 10, it just, I had them right outside. It was hard for me to get there. This feels a little silly because they were 10th in offensive DVOA. And that's how I did my rankings, just the top 10 finish in FTN DVOA is how we've done the last few years. And that's how I was thinking about it. They finished 10th last year when seemingly everything went wrong.

So it would be easy to make an argument that with the same players and a couple more breaks and a couple more contingency plans against pressure, some of the issues where they struggled, the areas where they struggled, they could be as good or better than they were last year. But those are the two things that you said that I keep coming back to. What is this offensive line going to look like without Jason Kelsey, not just physically, but everything that he's handling before the snap and his role in the overall operation of that offense? and two, this is a huge departure. I mean, we're going from one of the most hyper-specific offenses in the NFL, streamlined,

you know, really leaning into the things that they do well to a much, much more traditional offense that puts a lot more on the plate of the quarterback specifically in a bunch of different areas. Ultimately, I think leaning into that could have benefits in the long run, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the short term, there were some growing pains as Jaywin Hertz and the rest of this offensive personnel got used to what is a very different system from what they've been running over the last couple of years. I'm so glad you said that because there are one or two other offenses, whether it's in the back half of my top 10 or teams that were just outside,

where I was like long term, I think what they're doing and where they're going is the right direction. But this year, it's like I just don't know if I'm all the way, all the way there with it. And the Eagles are one of the two, in my mind, one of the two. perfect examples for that. I'd probably have the Eagles at like 13 if I was doing a list. And a team that I'd have right in that same range as the Dallas Cowboys, who also did not make my list. I think the argument against the Cowboys is honestly easier to make than it is with the Eagles

because I have some structural concerns with the Cowboys offense. I know Mike McCarthy did a lot better calling plays and setting everything up over there than we thought he was going to heading into the season. but I still feel like by the end of the year, people were just on their shit. And this is not just the playoff game. I'm talking about the Miami game that they played, the game they played against Buffalo,

where they really struggled to move the ball. Some of the things that they were implementing when the offense felt more dynamic after the buy, they're just stealing stuff from teams like the Dolphins and incorporating it into who they are. But I don't think that's necessarily the best indicator of an ability to evolve and build on what you were doing moving forward. So even if they surprised us a little bit last year, I think they ran out of gas, and I don't have a ton of faith in their ability to revamp this thing heading into year two.

And you combine that with some real personnel concerns. We're looking at two new starters along the offensive line, including the left tackle. Jalen Tolbert is the number three receiver on this team. You're watching them go through drills at training camp. It's Brandon Cook's Jalen Colbert and like six guys I have never heard of. The margin for error on this offense is extremely thin, and that's before you get to some of the concerns, again, about the overall structure and how this thing is designed. Well, yeah, you said they ran out of gas, and sometimes teams can fix that by, like, adding some other piece. They didn't add anything.

Like, they're cool as a difference. They lost guys. Yeah, they just lost pieces, especially up front, which, like, when you think about what Dallas has been for so long, especially in the passing game, a lot of it is like, DAC is going to get these guys in the right position, and they're going to hold up for long enough for him to make some ridiculous throw in the 11 to 20 yard range. The problem is if they're just not as good up front, even whatever value DAC is going to give you in terms of getting guys in the right spot

and stuff, it's just not going to be as valuable. And then if you're not adding any receiver talent to kind of make up for that, and they lost some running back talent. Like, they just lost, I think, probably too much explosive playability. Obviously, DAC and CD alone are going to get you to like top half of the league offense. It's just that when we're starting to talk about, like, do they have enough to really push into the top 10? I don't know. I think especially too, like you mentioned, by the time we get to the end of the year, it's just hard to see how they have enough gas.

This team put up a lot of points last year, but they feasted on bad defenses, consistently feasted on bad defenses. They finished ninth in offensive DVOA last season when they were running hot for huge stretches of the year. So it's not hard for me to imagine a slight fall from that, 9 to 13, 14, close to. or the middle of the pack, considering how last year ended. So those are two teams that I think people might be upset we don't have on ours. What is a team that you really wanted to put in your top 10, but for one reason or another, you couldn't quite get there with them? It pained me so bad to leave the Seattle Seahawks off here.

This, like, when I was putting together the first version of my list, I was like, this is going to be my team that I'm, like, betting on and I'm going to do something crazy. And then I really thought about it a little bit more. I was like, I can't get all the way there for this and that reason. And for me, a lot of it was, you know, I think the tackle play will be better than it was last year because those two were obviously really good as rookies.

But I still don't know. I think you're too quick with that. I think Charles Cross. I think he will be better. I was in Seattle two days ago. Abe Lucas still was not practicing. And there is not like a definitive timeline about when he's going to be back. and they've positioned themselves better than they were last year.

Like George Fant, I think, is a solid option as a swing tackle. He can't play for 100 years, but right now you could do worse than Fan. And the Texans, I think, were a good example of that last year. They were stable able to function with him as their third tackle, and he had to play for most of the season because Titus Howard got hurt. So you say the tackle play is going to be better. It might be marginally better, but it's not like we're clicking on all cylinders there, and that's leaving two other offensive line positions still.

up in the air. They were looking at potentially signing Connor Williams a week ago to come in and fight to be their starting center. So that spot is unsettled. And there's a right guard battle happening right now between Christian Haynes and Anthony Bradford. So we have two positions on the offensive line that are quote unquote settled. One of them is Lake and Tomlinson, who didn't exactly light the world on fire for the

jets over the last couple years. So there are real questions about this group up front, even if you're excited about some of the other pieces that Seattle was bringing to the table. Basically, what you just said is exactly what I had to do mentally, where I was like, I got pretty far ahead of myself about like, oh, the offensive line's definitely going to be better. And then the more I looked at it, the more I thought about it, I was like, maybe like 2% better, but I don't know if it's going to be enough to get them back to maybe where they were in 2022. And then you look at some of the skill players and like, I think JSN is really good

and he's going to take another step. He's, again, he's never going to be this super explosive guy that's, you know, completely changing games for you, but he can be like Tyler Boyd type of just, you know what you're, you can get a thousand yards from him every season type of guy. The problem is another year of Lockett getting older, I think could potentially be a problem. You don't know exactly when the wall's going to come, especially for a guy who relies on being fast. And if he loses a little bit, that could certainly be a problem. And then I have long been not the biggest fan of DK Metcalf's game. And I think if for whatever reason he has to be a bigger part to the offense if potentially Lockett takes a step back or if the offensive line doesn't take another

step forward to help out Gino, then I think you start to get into issues where this offense is probably a little more volatile than it would need to be to actually be a firmly top 10 unit. Yeah, I know D.K. McHaff can be frustrating and you and I have talked about this off Mike a little bit just some of the misconceptions about what sort of player he is. He doesn't play as big as his frame. He's a little bit more limited than you want him to be. We think of him as a star receiver. I think that there are more holes in who he is than some of the other really good, highly paid receivers in the league. And I think it's one of the reasons we kind of misunderstand what the Seahawks offense can be. Even with that in mind, though, I still feel like this type of system can get the most out of him.

When I look at the skill position talent and the quarterback, one of the things that's the most exciting for me and Ryan Grub coming in here, I don't need a lot of imagination. Like what he was doing at Washington aligns with the personnel they have with the Seahawks, including the quarterback. this is not a square peg round hole situation. My hesitation is how fast does it all come together? We're betting on a questionable offensive line and year one of a new system. And there are moments and examples of a new offense lifting a team immediately. You know, you can go back.

The Mike McDaniel Dolphins were a good example of that where it just happened immediately. The Sharming of Ray Rams in year one, that happened immediately. But sometimes it can take a little bit longer than that. And, you know, this is a team, again, I was just there. They're still figuring out how they want to play, what the run game is going to look like. I mean, we're only two or three days into camp, and there's just no way for them to have a lot of those answers. So just think that uncertainty combined with some of the questions on the line, I can't quite get there. I will say this, though.

I went to Seattle, maybe hoping that there'd be a little pushback on what I think about Gino Smith. That did not happen. If anything, the opposite happened, and now I feel like I'm going to have to keep tearing down my Gino enthusiasm because there are no outside forces that are tempering it whatsoever after I spent the day there on Monday. Well, don't look at me. You're not going to get it for me either. I know. I know. I charted him this summer and like the numbers were worse, obviously, because the team was worse. But I watched him play and I was just like, he does everything you want out of a quarterback. He's ballsy. He makes throws. He probably shouldn't. But then they're completed anyway. His arm is incredible. He's accurate. to every level. He's just an awesome player, dude. Yeah, they are very excited about him. And, you know, every team is excited about their players. Some of the stuff that I heard about Gino Smith when I was in Seattle, a new staff does not have

to be that effusive about a player that they did not bring on and that they are not attached to. It would be really easy for grubbing those guys to be like, yeah, you know, we're excited about Gino. He's working to get better every day. That was not the tone. The tone was, this guy is really something. And we think that put in the right circumstances, we can get very, very high level play out of him, like elite level quarterback play. And for somebody who in his bones believes that Gino Smith in the right circumstances can be an elite quarterback, that was preaching to the choir. So we'll see what happens with Seattle, but I think you and I are on the same page with that. The team that I really wanted to put on and ultimately couldn't was the Colts. If you told me at the

end of the year. The Colts finished seventh in offensive DVOA. Anthony Richardson's accurate. Actually, she's got a little bit better. The run game was dynamic. This is a team that they were efficient on the ground last year, but they finished 27th an explosive run rate last year. You drop Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson into a rushing offense for a full season. That is not going to be the case. And I believe in the skill position talent. And I actually think the roles make a lot of sense. Downs, Pitman, A.D. Mitchell, who apparently has looked good, that in its best form is a really good complimentary group of pass catchers combined with a very good offensive line and a play caller that I think got the most out of that group last year. So in the higher range of outcomes,

this is easily one of the best 10 offenses in the league. I just think that you're making a big bet on stuff we have not seen yet. I want to get there with Anthony Richardson. I want him to be that sort of player, but I just am not comfortable saying I'm willing to bet on that team over some of the other ones that I put in the top 10. Like, how can I remove Lamar and that offense and what they did last year and put Anthony Richardson? It's just hard for me to do. I can't get there. That's exactly. When I said earlier, there was one other offense where I was like, I love the direction and where we're going. And in two years, this is probably going to be great. But I can't quite get myself over the hump this year, it was the Colts. And like, again, I think you're spot on with the roles in the receiver

room. Like, they have one guy for the top three roles that you need. They can do everything they're going to want to do conceptually. They can stretch the field. They can get easy yards underneath, all that stuff. The run game should be really good with those two when you have a quarterback, especially like Anthony Richardson. But you just want to see Anthony Richardson actually prove it first. And again, I think he will. I think he's going to get there. But you still want to actually see him play a half a second faster. You still want to actually see him make throws a little bit more consistently. You just want to see, even if, again, I think in two years he'll be there, it's hard to know for sure that

next year is going to be the year. I would put the Colts at 11 and the Cioxx at 12 in the fake rankings that I'm doing. Two other teams I wanted to mention. One team that I think most people wouldn't put anywhere near the top 10, but if you told me by the end of the year, they snuck in. Like enough stuff fell into place for them. and they were sneaky good statistically and maybe a lot better than people expected, the Arizona Cardinals.

If the Arizona Cardinals had a top 10 offense by the end of the year, I would not be shocked. Questions along the line still, totally fair. And there are some battles going on in the interior for them. But I think Kyler looked much more comfortable by the end of the year than he did in his first couple games in Arizona. And you dropped Marvin Harrison in there and some of the stuff that they were doing the run game, this was on the most efficient rushing team in football by the end of last season. and they got marginally better at some spots, not significantly, but marginally better. So I think there's a path forward for them.

And I think we at least have to mention the Chicago Bears. I know that they, you know, they didn't necessarily almost crack your list, but they were on a short list for you as you were trying to whittle down your teams. They definitely were. I mean, listen, when you have first overall pick, quarterback who is like very deserving of going there, like just an absolute superstar level talent, you have three. It's not even just that their receivers to me are good.

It's that like these guys are just adults. Like nowhere to be, know how to catch the football, know how to play back to the football, all that stuff. Like this to me is just a very grown-up receiver room. And I think for a quarterback like Caleb, who can be a little loosey-goosey, you know, kind of just tries some stuff. I think it's kind of nice to have that counterbalance in the passing game.

And then I think the offensive line is not great, but it's, I think, good enough for the type of quarterback that Caleb is and some of the stuff that he can do to help you out. It's just, again, it's kind of one of those teams where you still want to see it a little bit when you have so much young talent and an offensive coordinator and Shane Waldron who is, I think he's like above average, but he's not, to me, in that like top, top tier where I'm just automatically giving you the benefit of the doubt on everything. So I think this is going to be a really interesting offense for how young some of the pieces,

the most important pieces are. But yeah, I still want to see it a little bit. I'm glad you brought up the Cardinals. I told you I would get you on Kyler by November. It seems we're already getting there. No, listen, I'm not fully sold the way that you are. I just think that he did look more comfortable and you add a couple more playmakers into that offense and just have allowed them to settle in year two of a system.

And I think that there is a path forward for them to be, there's going to be a surprise team in the top 10. There's going to be a team we did not anticipate that ends up getting there or close to it. And I just think the Cardinals have a path to do that in a way some of the other bottom feeder teams in the league do not. With the Bears, I'm sure a lot of people would be like, oh, man, they absolutely can. Da-da-da-da-da-da. The Houston Texans got the best play that we have seen from a rookie quarterback, top two, like him and Herbert, right? Got the best play we've seen from rookie quarterback in a very, very long time. They finished 14th in offensive BVOA last year.

So that is a very, very good outcome if you have a rookie quarterback. so many things break right, you still are probably fighting to be a top half of the NFL offense, even if you're optimistic about that group. So do not get mad at us, Bears fans, about being a little bit dismissive about what the ceiling for this team might look like in year one of a new play caller and a rookie quarterback. All right, let's get to the actual list here. Let's start with number 10. Who did you have at number 10 in your top 10 offenses list? I ended up going with the Baltimore Ravens, which was, I think when I initially, this is going suck. Terrible start here. This is, this to me was just like, I wanted to put them higher because

obviously when your quarterback wins the MVP and you still, I think, have some really interesting pieces on offense like Zay Flowers for a rookie looked awesome. Mark Andrews, when he's healthy, is obviously incredible. It's just the stuff about the offensive line, losing so many pieces, and then even one of the pieces that you're keeping around in Ronnie Stanley, not being the player that he was maybe three years ago and also consistently hurt. I just, think even if you have a quarterback like Lamar who is kind of a pressure fixer by himself just because of the way that he can play the position, I think there's just too much unknown on the offensive line for me to have put them any higher. That being said, like when you get, you're going to get

year two of Todd Monkin and Lamar in like a more sophisticated passing offense, which again, before this year, we hadn't really seen that. And so the fact that he's going to get another year in that type of offense is huge. I think Zayflowers will probably take another step because Like, for as good as he was last year, his usage was a little bit limited in terms of being just a really quick underneath guy or they were just completely stretching the field with him. And then he had moments where it was like, ah, he wasn't supposed to settle down there. Or he needed just kind of not in the right spot, right time, which again, rookie player, totally natural. So there's still a lot of reason for optimism.

I think they will be a good unit, especially when you have probably one of the coolest like thunder and lightning type of backfields ever with Lamar Jackson being your life. lightning and then Derek Henry being your thumb. Like it's just a crazy, crazy duo that they've concocted. So there's a lot to like. It's just the offensive line, I couldn't put them a whole lot higher. They finished number one rushing DVOA last year. Number one.

And now they're just dropping Derek Henry into the mix. I think we might be overstating the offensive line stuff. This feels like one of those things that we hem and hall about all throughout July and into August and then we get to the season. They're like, oh, they're fine. Like they found five guys. Like it's Folele inside maybe instead of a tackle and they play McCarrey and they piece it together and they get workable offensive line play.

And when you combine that with everything else, especially in the run game, the results end up looking fairly similar to what they were last year. That wouldn't surprise me. I do think there are two competing factors at the core of this. It's the offensive line concerns versus a potential bump in year two of the offense. I mean, this was so new for so many of these guys. for Lamar. Zay was obviously a rookie for Mark Andrews. I mean, they changed the structure of how this thing was working. And it's really hard to do that and get everything right by year one, to become and hone

everything you want to be, even by the end of that first season. And I'm going there tomorrow. I'm very excited to talk to some guys about this. Like, what does that honing look like into year two? What are some of the things they've trimmed? What are some of the things they feel like they've sharpened? I honestly think that could outweigh the offensive line concerns by the end of the day. So with that in mind, I kind of wanted to put them a little bit higher, but there are other things about this team that still hold me back a tiny bit. Like what teams are still able to do to Lamar in third down situation specifically when they send extra bodies at him, I think we're going to see more teams lean into that and

just say, we don't think that you can beat us consistently this way. He was dead last in the NFL and EPA per dropback when blitzed on third down last year. So if teams keep hammering them on that stuff and they don't have answers, that's one of the, I'm sure a lot of people are like, well, how could they be that much worse than last year if you're not that worried about the offensive line? If teams pick away at some of those weaknesses and they don't have answers for how they're going to fix them, that's one of the other reasons I think that they could pull down a little bit. And I think that that remains to be seen at this point. I think that's a completely fair concern. And like, I have remained steadfast in the idea that I think part of the problem there is that they just haven't had guys who can beat like man coverage in those situations consistently. I think another year as day, Flowers should help in that regard.

And I think having a fully healthy Mark Andrews for the entire year will help because he obviously missed some time last year. So I think if those two factors can can help stabilize things, they'll probably get closer to this not being a thing that completely derails the offense every drive. but I do think it's a fair concern. And especially this is one of those things where you talk about like, what's it going to look like in January? When you get to January, like teams are going to get you in this situation, whether you like it or not, like when you face defenses like the chiefs,

like they're going to get you in this spot and you're going to have to deal with it. And so if they cannot prove that they can do that, I think that's probably going to be their biggest Achilles seal. And I wonder if teams that are playing them this year looked at what happened in the playoffs in the first half against the Texans and then most of the game against the chiefs. Chiefs, and they're going to say, we're just going to play this way. Like, this is how we are going to approach this team week in and week out,

because they have to show us they can overcome it before we allow them to play a different style. And if teams consistently lean into that, I wonder if they have the right amount of answers. In year two, they might. But again, I want to see it before I'm willing to say, yeah, they're over that hump. I'm not concerned about this anymore. All right, let's get to number nine. Who is your number nine offense in the NFL heading into 2024? I stuck around in the AFC North.

And I had the Cincinnati Bengals. This was actually a team when I did the first round of my list I didn't have in the top 10. But then I thought about it more and it was just like, Joe Burrow is too good. Jamar Chase to me is maybe like the second best receiver in football. T. Higgins is obviously incredible. And then the offensive line I think was actually what got me from outside the top 10 into the top 10. I think when I first looked at this offensive line, I really hated it. And I still don't love it, right?

Like, there's still, I don't think the tackle play is that great in pass protection. I think they didn't probably do enough or really anything on the interior to fix what they're going to, you know, to fix what they're going to need to do. But I do think Trent Brown is actually a minor upgrade at the tackle position. And then if they get anything out of Marius Mims, whether it's like he's playing guard randomly or he just is somehow better than Trent Brown. And that's a huge upgrade. That could be huge. So like if they get anything there, that made me feel better about it. So I still don't love the overall structure of this office.

And I know that they were trying some different things last year. I actually, that is something I want to talk about. I watched the San Francisco game again. Because if you talk to Bengals fans, right? They're always like, this was the game where it all looked different. They went more under center, all this stuff. Do you know what their best plays were? It was throwing slot fades to Jamar Chase.

It was throwing bubbles. It was Joe Burrow doing something ridiculous outside the pot. Like, it was all still the same shit, which it's cool that they were able to add to all the under center stuff and like kind of fill out the offense a little bit more. But their best plays were still just their best plays anyway. Well, I don't think it's a matter of where the best plays come from. I think it's a matter of finding a harmonious marriage between that style and some of the under center stuff.

And I do think that the San Francisco game was the best example of that. Their best plays can still be them lining up in the gun and letting Joe go to work with some of the best weapons in the NFL. I think it's just about having the flexibility to play a different way, one, just to keep teams off balance, but two, just to find answers in some new ways. And I do think that they've shown an ability to do that. And I know some people are held back a little bit by this idea that they're straddling two worlds and they're going to struggle because they have a one foot in both. I'm not really worried about that. Like, I think that they've shown an ability to work

through some of that stuff. And even with Brian Callahan gone, this is still a huge chunk of the same staff. Dan pitcher their offensive coordinator was Joe Burroughs quarterback's coach. I mean, he's somebody that speaks Joe's language. I have faith in their ability to navigate that stuff. And if you drop Joe Burrow into some version of the Jake Browning offense from last year that includes the drop back from the gun stuff that Joe Burrow is good at, I think that has a chance to be a really good offense. My biggest question about this is, where do the explosive plays come from? Because last year, they were extremely efficient when Burrow got back from the calf injury and before he got hurt again.

But this team over the last couple of years has struggled to be that explosive. And that's why a couple of the new pieces to me are intriguing. Like dropping Chase Brown and Jermaine Burton in here instead of Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, that level of juice in comparison to what they used to have, that's where I can get excited about this team because the explosive play is where they're coming from as teams build their defenses to limit it. How does that happen? That's my big question.

And with the personnel they have, I actually do think that there's a path forward with some of that stuff. I do too, especially with Burton, man. He is a really, really good football player. Because this past offseason, I did, you know, I was at Bleacher Report. I was doing offensive skill players.

Purely in terms of talent, like Burton had a lot of off-field stuff that dropped his grade and dropped where he went in the draft. But in terms of purely on-field, that dude was like a top 40 talent. Like he is incredibly fast. His ball tracking was probably some of the best that you were going to find in this class. His route running was great.

He could be like a little stiff at times, but was generally very, very good. He can play a little bit inside, but he's mostly probably going to be an outside speed threat. He just checked so many boxes where I was like, this dude can be like a real engine that makes your offense go. And then when you add that on top of an offense that already has two wide receivers who do that by themselves, it's just the passing offense could be. could be truly insane. And so I think just the fact that you have to probably cover more ground when you are basically swapping out Tyler Boyd for a guy like Jermaine Burton, I think that alone could unlock their explosive potential a little bit. I agree. And I think that Chase Brown has a chance to give them that as well. This team over the last two years has 10 running back runs of 20 plus yards

over the last two seasons combined. Chase Brown has two of them. He got 44 carries last year. he has two over the last two seasons. Joe Mixon has seven. Joe Mixon had a 467 carries. Chase Brown had 44 carries. So even if it's not going to be quite as mindlessly efficient as it's been with Mixon and P. Ryan, a couple of other guys over the last couple years.

Chase Brown gives them a new gear. And you combine that with Burton potentially giving them a new gear. And if he can play outside, maybe Chase can play inside. There are questions about how this is all going to look and what the final form of it is. but I'm betting on the staff that has consistently found ways through this and the players who are really fucking good. This is not an Eagle situation where they're starting over and figuring out, all right, what do we have to do now with this new way of approaching this?

This team is still building on what they've done, and what they've done has been pretty damn good up to this point. They finished 11th last year with Browning playing half of the season. So I am totally comfortable putting them in the top 10, and I had them at 8, so I had them at one spot higher than you. Who'd you have in nine then? The Buffalo Bills. I had them at seven, so a little bit higher.

Okay, all right. So not that high. Not that high. Yeah, it's, this is another one where I have so much faith in some of the foundational elements of who they are right now. This is the stat that jumped out to me. On a per play basis last year, the bills had fewer negative plays than any team in the NFL. And if you think back to what they were over the last few years, that was never the case. They were 17th in that metric in 2022.

They were 19th in 2021. And these are stretches where this team was rolling. And they still weren't this type of offense where they were consistent. They were efficient. And I think that's what the ground game has given them. I mean, this team has finished second in offensive success rate last year. And really, all they've done is remove Steph Diggs and try to piece him together with a few other guys. So I just think the offensive line and what it is these days combined with Josh Allen,

and that running game. I have faith in those things to the extent that I trust their ability to figure out the past catchers enough to comfortably make them one of the best 10 offenses in the league. That's basically where I'm at. And I was even a little higher because I'm kind of a Keon Coleman guy. But I think my big thing is I'm so glad you brought up Josh Allen, well, the offense in general not taking negative place because I think people can't get that in their brain about Josh Allen.

especially the way he played last year because when he has an oopsie, it is the most egregious error you've ever seen. I mean, that Jets game like in the beginning of the year was just like, he just didn't even look like he was trying to play football at that point. And so I think we get those moments in our head, especially because he's had them basically since he's hopped into the league. But last year on a down-to-down basis, he truly was one of the cleanest, most efficient players in the game, whether it's not taking sacks, whether it's getting to his checkdown, just getting to the right reads, throwing the ball away if he needed to, which. just something he didn't really do even before last year.

Like he just, he continues to to take the negative plays out of his game without really losing those absolute superstar moments that make him just a complete flame throwing demon. And so that alone is going to give you the ceiling. And then some of the stuff you mentioned with them having a floor, whether it's like we said, Josh Allen taking out negative plays, the offensive line in the run game finally coming along. I mean, how long did it take three, four years of us like, oh, they kind of have it. Oh, okay, it was only there for a month and now it's gone again. And like, we did this for three years, but they finally have it.

And I think James Cook is a really good explosive back. Obviously, having Allen is going to boost your run game. He's one of those three, four guys that kind of just does that by himself. And then this receiving core, like Dalton Kincaid, I think is a really good tight end. Khalil Shakir is a solid starter at the very least probably to me. I think he's just one of those right place, right time kind of guys. And he's much tougher than his size might suggest. And then Keon Coleman, man, I liked him a lot.

I think people by the end of the draft process really kind of soured on him because he was a little bit banged up at the end of his Florida State run and it didn't look as good as it could be. But you watch some of what he was doing at Michigan State and it was like this is how a ball winning bully explosive X receiver is supposed to look. And so I'm kind of more betting on that film and I think that he can be that type of player. When you give that to a guy like Josh Allen who's going to go give his guy's chances, yeah, man. Like I'm going to bet on that. it's a strange collection of skill position players because I think you could probably make an argument. I know Curtis Samuel has some juice, but the tight end and the running back are two of the most explosive players that they potentially have. And I think building opportunities for those guys in the past game, I mean, James Cook had plenty of them with Joe Brady in the second half of last season.

I think that is going to be a huge thing for them to tap into. And even if we have questions about the receivers, I don't know, man. This is just a bet on Josh Allen. I trust him to figure it out. I don't know how all the roles necessarily fit together. Like, is Cleo Shakir just inside all the time? Does that mean Curtis Samuel plays outside all the time? Do we think that there can be some moments for Keaun-Kulman as a big slot player?

I still have a lot of questions about deployment. But in the end, I think just having that metronome kind of factor with the running game. Plus, in my opinion, the second most dangerous player in the NFL down in and down out, that's enough to get them into the top 10, even if I do have some lingering questions about what the ceiling could look. look like, given the concerns and some of the ambiguity about the past catching group. All right. So who'd you have at 8 then? I think this is probably going to be the one inside my top 10 that pisses people off the most. I had the Miami Dolphins at 8. And I want to start by saying, you know, you kind of mentioned

earlier that your thought process for this was like, where might they finish in DVOA or something? I kind of thought about it a little bit more of like, when we get to the end of the season, how am I actually going to feel about what this offense is and where they're going to be? Yeah, I mean, I think you can make an argument that the dolphins might be even lower than eight in an exercise like that. Right. I guess putting them at eight was like an aggregate between where they're going to finish in DVO and where I might feel about them at the end. This is obviously, they're still going to light the world on fire in terms of the passing game. Like I think when you still have your two superstar weapons of wire deceiver that you need obviously in Tyree Kill and Jalen Wadle. And Tyree Kill, you know, he's getting older, but even if he loses 5% of his speeding quickness, he's still going to be a top five receiver in the NFL.

I don't think it matters this year. You know, the offensive line still stinks, but I think as far as the way that the offense is constructed, it probably doesn't matter because the ball gets out so quickly. And then the run game, like, it's not great, but I think because they are so explosive, you're going to get enough of those chunks. And the passing offense is consistent enough that that's kind of your bread and butter and that's kind of your, you know, the thing that keeps everything afloat. I think they're still going to be fine.

And I think this offense is just still going to be so explosive. and I think we've seen from Mike McDaniel, he is absolutely in that tier of guys where it's like, yeah, he'll have something new next year. Like he's going to figure out some other way to give you more offense, even if, again, there's still some holes with this thing. So I think, again, by the end of the year, I'm not going to feel great about what this offense is in large part because of the quarterback and the offensive line. But I think as far as like churning out points from September to the end of November,

yeah, man, they're going to be really, really good. I put them at six, and I feel like that's just a spineless decision. That is a spot where you put a team where you actually don't want to make any sort of definitive judgment about them. They're not in the top five, but they're high enough that I think that I can appease the Dolphins fans that might be listening to the show. I just don't know what to do with them. Because on the one hand, I'm skeptical that they added enough and did enough to find the change-ups that this offense needs. When I was watching them in the back half of last year, they were. trying to run downhill run concepts as a change up to all of the perimeter stuff that they do.

And they just don't have the bodies to do it. Tight ends, offensive linemen, they do not have the personnel to run at you. And I think that if you look at the really good offenses in the league that can sustain it over long periods of time, they have those changeups. If you're going to play them a certain way, they can hurt you for playing them that way. The dolphins can't really do that. but they're so good at drilling down at the things they're good at that it doesn't really matter. And I think that's what's so interesting about how they've built this over the last couple years.

I mean, instead of addressing the offensive line and potentially adding a little bit more heft than the way that a team like the Rams has or team like the Bills has, these teams that struggle to kind of tap into that physicality late in the year, the Dolphins just said, eh, we're just going to go draft another fast running back and another yak receiver and we're just going to build the plane out of this. And typically that would frustrate me. But if you watch all of the ways this team gets the ball on the perimeter and all of the

ways they can pry open the middle of the field with the way their offense is constructed, I still believe in it. It's what you said. It's like they will find a way. They will come into this season with a new way to do something they already do well just a little bit better. And even if that's a frustrating way to approach this, and I do think it maybe limits your ceiling in the long run,

it can make you really fucking dangerous for 17 games in the regular season. So that's why I kind of put them right in the middle because I'm kind of hedging my bets a little bit. That is a funny way to frame it. Literally every addition they made to this offense, though, was to just get to that end. Because even signing Aaron Brewer at center, not a big man. He's probably 285 pounds,

but he can run and cover some ground, man. And so, like, they're just fully leaned into, like, we are attacking you outside the numbers in the run game and between the numbers in the passing game. And that's how we're going to live. We are going to min-max the shit out of this offense. And I just, I don't know what the end game of that is. But again, I think in the intermediate, they're going to hurt a lot of people. And you look at it, the Rams run a decent amount of like pinpole stuff now as a compliment to their duo game, right? Like, you have one and the other.

The dolphins run a ton of perimeter runs. They ran four duo plays. last year. Four. And the entire season, that was last in the NFL. Like, they just don't have those counterpunches in the way that some of the really good offenses do. But the haymakers they throw are so devastating that for long periods of time, they can

do without the curveballs. And I still think that's going to happen again. I don't know what it means in January. I don't know what it means when teams have a full season of tape on them. But I believe in Mike McDaniel to get them there for a majority of the regular. season in the same way that he has over the last couple years. Let's run through your 10 through 7 really quickly, just to reset a little bit. Right. I had the Ravens. I had the Bengals. I had the dolphins and then the bills at 7. Okay. He talked about a little bit. Yep. So who did you

have at 6? At 6 I had, this is where I put the Houston Texans. And I fumbled around a little bit with where exactly I wanted to put them in this range. Ultimately, I ended up towards, I had them a little higher actually on my initial list. I have them at four. Yeah, that is exactly where I had them. And then I kind of just thought about some of the teams I had ahead of them. And it just, it felt a little bit to me some of the teams I had ahead of them. There was a little bit more, I already know what this looks like. Because you mentioned it earlier. Like last year, for as excited as we are about the Houston Texans, they were like kind of a middle of the pack mildly above average offense. And it was really cool seeing what some of Stroudwell could do,

some of what he could do. Obviously, Nico Collins came on. on. Like, there was a lot of reason to be excited for the future. But in the moment, they were, like, kind of just solid and not, and not great. And I'm just not sure if they did enough to make me get all the way to top five. Obviously, I think CJ Stroud is, it's phenomenal. Like, he, he alone is going to give you probably a top 10 passing offense. Nico Collins is very quickly turned into one of the better receivers in the NFL. And he's like the exact type of receiver I like where he's just big, fast, fast, strong, tries to bully the hell out of you on every, on every play. That's just, It's the type of receiver I love.

And I think, you know, you've kind of mentioned this before with, with like these Shanahan-esque offenses. You need that player more than I think people realize. Like someone who can kind of play the Julio-ish role or Brandon Iuk, who's obviously a different player from Nico Collins. But just that like. Andre Johnson, like they've always had one when this offense has been humming. Always. Yes. And Nico is very much in that caliber.

Maybe not elite, elite, like some of those guys, but very much like that, that mold of player. And so I think that that's huge for them. I think what kind of just struggled, like, I couldn't get all the way there was the offensive line, I'm still not sure is going to be that good. And I think especially when you think about the run game, that is going to be a big problem. Like, I pretty much trust Stroud to not get sacked a ton and to get the ball out when he's getting pressured, all that sort of stuff. It's just I think if this is going to be a team that is still very much leaning into the run game and wants this to be a huge part of their identity, if the offensive line isn't really good enough to get you to even above average rushing offense, which they were not. even close to last year, that is where I start to get a little bit like, can this consistently be a team that is just absolutely rolling you over? So I think they're going to be really good.

They're going to be really explosive. I just wonder a little bit about like what the meat and potatoes is going to be. The biggest question for me is, can they find just more consistency in the running game? If they can find average level rushing consistency, I mean, this is the most injured offensive line in football last year. And again, it's year one. You don't necessarily know what the structure of your run game is supposed to look like, especially when you're seeing. sifting between offensive line combinations, even in training camp. So this group is much healthier heading into year two. And I feel like I'm sure they're doing some honing of that throughout this process over the last week or so.

I'm visiting them next week and I'm actually looking forward to asking about some of this stuff. But they were 25th in rushing success rate last year. Let's say that that's 15th. Like they just get to middle of the pack. The only two teams in the NFL last year that at a higher explosive play rate when they were throwing the football than the Texans were the Niners and the Dolphins. Like, if you can get to average in the run game and you can continue to be the team you were throwing the football last season while adding Steph Diggs and even if you're

not over the moon about the offensive line, moderately improving a historically banged-up offensive line, that's enough for me. Like, I can't say some of the shit I said about C.J. Stroud over the last two weeks and then hedge on where I'm putting the Texans offense in year two. So I'm just, I'm full steam ahead. I'm putting them in the top five. And even if it might be a little fast, and there are some very real concerns about the ceiling for this thing and why it might be capped, I'm just choosing to ignore those right now as I project this team moving forward. Listen, I really don't blame me.

My three through six, I probably shuffled them around like five different times. And this is just where they ended up landing for me. So I'm still total. I'm with you for the most far. I think I'm just like 5% more I want to see it before I believe it. So let me get for my 10 through 6 here before we get to the time. five. I had the Ravens at 10, the bills at nine, the Bengals at eight. I have a mystery team at seven, and then I had the dolphins at six. So who is your fifth team? My fifth team. Are you thinking

it's going to be your seventh? My fifth was the Green Bay Packers. That is who I have at seven. Yeah. This was, I think the difference for me was, so, you know, it's funny. CJ Stride and Jordan Love kind of get like bucketed together almost as he's like first year, like, holy shit, this guy is a really, really good quarterback and going to be top 10. I think what slightly gave me the edge for the Packers over the Texans, one, I think even with some of the weird, funky stuff they're doing up front with the offensive line, I still have a little bit more faith that this Packers offensive line is going to be marginally better than what the Texans have. It's an organizational bet. It's the same reason I feel decent about the Ravens. Like, if you've shown an ability to come out

on the other side often enough as you figure out these combinations, you deserve the benefit of the out. And I feel like the Packers and this staff and Adam Stenevich and that group specifically, they've gotten to that place with me. And to that same point, with the Texans, you know, I think Bobby Sloak is a good offensive coordinator. And he just has more to show, more to prove still. Matt LaFleur is absolutely certified, bro. Like that guy is to me top three, top four offensive play caller. Like after you get outside of the, what is it, Andy Reid, Sean McVeigh, like Kyle Shanahan, complete trio of heaven. Once you get past those guys,

Lefleur is like right there for me. Like he has just consistently proven that he can do whatever he wants on offense and consistently change things up and get really get the most out of players, which is obviously the best thing that you can do as a play caller. So this to me was more just, it's what you said.

It's an organizational bet where I just, I understand what these coaches can give me. I think I got a lot more out of their young players than they probably should have last year. and a lot of the growth that they showed over the back half of last year was just incredible. And like the other thing is we're betting on what, four or five young players where we're all like, oh, they could take another step. I don't even think all four or five of them need to take another step for this to be an elite

offense. If let's say two of these five players, let's say it's like Tucker Kraft and Jaden Reed, let's say those two are the ones that take the step. Even if it's just those two, this offense is going to be even better than it was last year and they were what the seventh, eighth best offense last year? that to me is where this gets very, very exciting. Yeah, and I'm automatically including Don Tavia and Wicks in that group, too. So there would be three guys that are going to take that stuff forward.

Here's our amount out with the Packers, and here's the reason I had them down a little bit further. You charted Jordan Love, and one of your takeaways, when you were looking at Jordan Love, he was more inconsistent, even in the back half of the season, than I think people remember. Some of the accuracy is a little bit scattershot, and looking at some of the numbers, I think the Packers' considerations are twofold. you could make this argument one of two ways. Some of the inconsistencies with that team last year, I think should make you a little bit skeptical

about what they'll look like when they aren't running hot like they were down the stretch. But I think you could look at this kind of two different ways with the Packers. You could look at some of the inconsistencies they had over last season, even on the second half of last season, and say, if they're not running hot, are those inconsistencies going to matter a little bit more? Or you could say,

if they iron out some of those inconsistencies with a young team, then what could they look like? Me putting them at seven is just splitting the difference. It's just me landing right in the middle of those two outcomes. They were comfortably, number one in the NFL in success right when they were throwing the ball on third down last year, comfortably. They were 17th on early downs. And history has proven to us that that third down success, it's volatile. You're not always going to get there year in and year out there. There are some guys who are really, really good at it.

Holmes and Josh Allen are two of them. They kind of exist in their own little world there. Most guys are going to ping pong a little bit and regress in that area specifically. And I wonder if that happens. If Jordan Love can do a little bit less heroic stuff on third down kind of outside of the structure of things and late in the down where he's being really creative with his arm, is that going to really show us how up and down some other elements of, this team can be, or do they get more consistent because they get a year older? I don't know the answer to that, and that's why I push them a little bit further down, because I don't know exactly where I land on it. If you told me it was the latter, and this was the number one

offense in football this year, I would not be shocked whatsoever, because I do think everything you said is right, and I do think they have that in them. So that's what you had at five. Five. Okay, so let's also dig into my top five here. I had the Kansas City Chiefs at five. All the way down there, huh? The only reason that I push them down that far is because I wonder if they're just in the Spurs mode of their dynasty where they're just not going to keep the pedal on the floor throughout the entire season. Like we've already seen them slow play it with Kelsey. So is this just the situation where they're going to be trying wacky shit through half the year? They're going to be figuring out

different usages for receivers. Like what if we put this guy in this route? They're bringing guys along a little bit slowly. That's the only reason. Again, they could be the best offense. in football, but I just don't know if they're going to have that sort of urgency where they're playing with that sort of fuck you energy the entire season based on where they are in the trajectory of all of this. They absolutely could outpace this, but I just think that they're at this place as an organization where they don't need to be the best offense in football and they're going to spend the season like they did last year tinkering a little bit as they get toward the end of the year. You know what? Through that lens, you kind of sold me. I mean, I'm

still going to keep them higher, obviously, but you've kind of sold me through that lens, especially because the offense, the passing offense should look a lot different. When you bring in guys like Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, it's going to look a lot different than a lot of the dink and dunk. All we can do is some of this yak stuff that they were doing, especially last year, but really the last couple of years. And obviously they had some experience doing this when they had Tyree Kill where it was much more of a vertical offense, but when you weren't doing that for a couple years, and then you got to go back to it with different and worst players, not that Hollywood and Xavier Worthy or bad, but they're not Tyree Kill.

When you're having to kind of reconfigure it that way, there is a chance where for 10 weeks this is just way more of a boom and bust offense than we think. And that's relative, right? Because Patrick Mahomes gives you some degree of stability by being on the football field. But relative to what they could be, it might be more volatile for the first 10 weeks of the season, then maybe it will be by the time we get into like, all right, let's be serious mode. Yeah, and they'll have a lot of figuring out to do with how they want to use those receivers. Like, our team's going to put a roof over it because they have more speed on the field. If that's the case, how are they going to find explosive plays?

Are they going to be able to run the ball well enough to hurt teams that they're going to play them that way? Because that was one of the more frustrating parts about watching this team last year is they just weren't very good running the football. Like the offensive line overall took a small step back last season. And I do think they played better in the playoffs, like Trace Smith specifically. I think was a lot better in the playoffs than he was for stretches of the regular season. But we got a second round rookie that seems like he has the inside track to win the left tackle job and an offensive line that really wasn't as dominant last year as it has been in years past. So I think there are one or two points that could give you a little bit of hesitation about what this team is,

even if some things break right. But I don't know, five seems right. Like for where they are right now and with some of the questions they have and some of the guys they're trying to fold in, I think top five is not a slap in the face to anybody when you consider how many really good offenses there are in the NFL. Yeah, I'll quickly add the run game is the one thing where I was like maybe I should drop them a little bit lower because of this. Ultimately, ultimately I said Patrick Mahomes outweighs it so it doesn't matter.

But the run game was the one because like last year, even just on, I looked it up on under center runs, they were like 26th in yards per carry. The year before they were like a top half, top third. Like, they were actually able to bully you when they wanted to. But guys like Joe Tune didn't really play, I think, as dominant as he had before. Trey Smith was a little bit more up and down. The tackle play was not as consistent. And so when they lost some of that, I think it kind of affected their ability to have the stability in the run game,

especially with some of the under center stuff they wanted to do. Hopefully some of the improvements they've made and just getting some of those interior guys back to their level will fix that. There's a chance that everything comes together for this group and they just go new. clear this season. Like if Hollywood Brown, we see the best version of him, they figure out how to get the ball and Xavier Worthy's hands, let him do some stuff after the catch. Like, we're turning underneath

completions into explosives. And you combine that with the run game returning to form, there is absolutely a chance that Kingsley-Suea-Mittia is better than Donovan Smith was last year, or at least as good as Donovan Smith was last year. And if you have slight bounce

back seasons from the other 80% of the offensive line, combined with good enough play at left tackle. And this group can be the 10th best rushing offense by efficiency, combined with their ability to throw the ball all over the yard with these past catchers, Rishi Rice doesn't get suspended. That is firmly within the range of outcomes. But I just, there's enough to push them a little bit further down for me,

just compared to three teams that I think are set up to continue to roll throughout this season. And I think are kind of in that stretch of who they are as a franchise, where the pedal is on the floor, and it's just a little bit of a different vibe in terms of how they're going to be approaching this. All right, so who'd you have it for? The Detroit Lions.

I think the Lions are just, they kind of just play football the way it should be played. That's just the best way that I can put it with. It's so true, man. It's true. Like, they just want to punch you in the mouth, but they have enough flexibility that they can do what makes football cool,

where they can still punch you in the mouth, but they are really making you think and making you stress about where the ball is actually going to go. Like even just looking at the backfield, when you have a guy who is as smart, as balanced, as hard-nosed as David Montgomery, and then also Jemir Gibbs, who is just absolute lightning in a bottle with the ball in his hands.

And truthfully, I think what is actually getting me excited about Gibbs is not all the stuff that he can do in space. He really came into his own as a between-the-tackles runner, I think, over the second half of last year. Early in the season, it was like, he is just, it just does not look the way that it's, supposed to look. It looked a little bit more like when DeAndre Swift was there. It wasn't ever that bad, but it looked closer to that. By the end of the season, it was like,

oh, he really gets how to run. And obviously, when you're playing next to a guy like David Montgomery, who has some of the best vision in the NFL, truthfully, it probably helps when you can just tap on that guy's shoulder and be like, hey, how am I supposed to read this out? And so I think their backfield is insane. The offensive line, obviously they lose Jonah Jackson, but I think replacing him with Zeitler is as good as they were really going to do. Like, you can't really do a whole lot better than that. So I think the offensive line is going to kick ass again. The passing game, I think even losing Josh Reynolds, who not a great player, but was kind of perfect for what the offense needed, I still think even losing him,

they have enough pieces that and the consistency at the offensive play caller with Ben Johnson staying around. I still have faith that they're going to be pretty dang good in the passing game, even if maybe they lose like 2% more consistency that Reynolds might have given them. I have them a three and I was tempted to put them a two. And I think you could absolutely make an argument that they deserve to be up there too. In my opinion, I don't know if I've said this on a show or not, but I believe this. I think that bringing Ben Johnson back is the most important move any team made this offseason of any kind.

If you think about where the lions are and their trajectory, he should be gone. He should have been a head coach two times over, them getting to bring back one of the best four or five play callers in the entire league. During this time of year, when I'm talking to coaches at all these camps, I ask every single one of them was who'd you watch this off season that you liked? Who'd you learn from? Who'd you study? Almost to a man on the offensive side of the ball, everybody says the Lions.

Everybody. And it's for the exact reason you said. They do things the right way. Their offense is so diverse with all the runs that they do, the play action game. Their drop-back game is really diverse and voluminous based on the West Coast background. These guys coming from Dan Campbell specifically like the Sean Peyton world. Any offense in the NFL essentially can take some of this stuff and steal from it. I think that's why so many teams study the lions and that's why they're so hard to deal with. The scope of it is incredibly

wide but it never feels like they're stretched too thin. And that is a really hard balance to strike, but they consistently do it. So them being able to bring back Ben Johnson and again, build on what they've done over the last couple of years rather than hitting the sort of soft reset that you should be hitting when you're a team that's in the spot that they are, that's an absolute coup. And you combine that with the talent that they have on that side of the ball. I'm all in, man. If the Niners take a small step backwards, the Lions absolutely have the goods to potentially finish as the best offense in the entire NFL.

There are very few weaknesses on this team. If Jameson Williams can take a moderate step forward and be that secondary, tertiary sort of pass catcher on this team and give them a smidge of the consistency and reliability, that Josh Reynolds did plus the juice that he's bringing to the table. I mean, this thing could get taken to an entirely different level than we've seen over the last couple years when they were a top five offense. Jameson Williams was basically what got me from being like, do I want to put them all the way at three or two or am I more okay at like four or five?

Because I loved Jameson Williams as a prospect, actually. I thought incredibly good route runner for just for how explosive he is. He had a little bit more nuance as a route runner. I think in college, then he's been able to show as a pro, maybe just, you know, he's been injured and things have happened really fast for him, and I think that's been the biggest problem. Never going to be the greatest, you know, ball winner, but that's just not who he is. But I think if he can get to any degree of like this looks like a real receiver, and I think we saw flashes of that last year, right?

Like, there were a couple of moments where he was like catching a ball in between windows over the middle of the field. I was like, oh, I didn't, you know, you didn't do anything like that as a rookie or even early in this second season. So if he can continue to add some of that, I think he could be the piece that kicks them into like, oh, this is the best offense in football. I think for me, I was just a little bit more. I would like to see it first. But I think it's absolutely on the table. I think you're so right that if that happens with how well they're going to run the ball again, they could have, be able to punch you in the mouth and also just throw over the top, which is

hard to defend, hard to be a defense when an offense can do that to you. There's just a little bit to everything. I mean, you look at it, the average depth of target for this team is lower than you expect it to be because they are checking the ball down so consistently. But it's a lot of them pushing the ball down the field. Not like 20, 30 or out shots down the sideline. That's not how their personnel is. But this team rips the ball on dagger plays and just big inbreakers. I mean, they're really attacking the intermediate area of the field. This is not a dink and dunk offense. And you might come to that conclusion if you look at some of the aggregate numbers, but that's more so just because they're consistently finding outlets in the passing game that are keeping them on

schedule and they're consistently finding positive plays. So I can't really say anything bad about this team. I think that Jared Gough is playing at a really high level for them. And again, they're able to build on this because they have that continuity on that side of the ball with Ben Johnson coming back. So I had the Lions at three. Who did you have at three? Los Angeles Rams.

I have them at two. Yeah. This team is just, I don't know. It's so hard for me to not be in on this team because they they kind of have a lot of what you like about the lions where it's like, okay, they can punch you in the face. They're able to throw the ball really aggressively. They kind of do a little bit of everything. But for me, a couple of things kind of kicked it up to the next level for me a little bit over the lines. One, I think the interior of this offensive line is so unique.

Like to have like 1,200 pounds of absolute run through your face type of energy, there's just not really any other team in the league built this way. Like the lions kind of are, but it's not really the same. I think this interior could be insane. And then like they already have proven that they want to run the ball and play this way. They ran more duo last year than any team in the league. They ran over 100 snaps of it. And I think the next closest was like 76 or 77. Like they are just, they want to run through you.

And then a lot of their, like, the rest of their run game is stuff that is kind of off of those same looks where you're getting into the same personnel and you're really just running downhill. Other thing that puts them over the top for me is the quarterback man. Matthew Stafford is so, so, so, so stinking good. And I know, like, people will get frustrated by some of the inconsistencies and you'll have on early downs, he'll try to do something ridiculous. And it's like, why did you do that?

you're just wasting a play. But then you get into where you need him, whether it's in the red zone, third down, fourth quarter, just absolute money, dude. Like, I remember, I think the best way to actually tie these two points together is there was a drive last year

against the Cardinals in week six. They run like eight plays in a row where they are just running the ball, all kinds of motion, just punching you in the face on the edge, down the interior. You look up, they get to the red zone. They haven't thrown the ball yet,

but they're in the red zone. They get into the red zone. First down, they actually have a negative run. It's like, okay, that's not good. we're derailed. Second down, Matthew Stafford scrambles for a few yards. Okay, we're in third and eight or whatever inside the red zone. Third down, Stafford throws an absolute rocket for a touchdown to the right pylon. And it's like, you can just run all the way into the red zone. And then Stafford just bails you out with the most ridiculous throw when it gets off the rails.

That's what this offense is. And I think they're going to be even better at it than they were last year. They're a complete offense now. And in that your your example is a lot more colorful. At the end, that's what they are. And I feel like them figuring out what they needed to be in the run game. It's just a light bulb moment. It's like a happy learned how to put sort of situation. There is our very few weaknesses when you look at this group overall. And they figured it out last year.

That light bulb went on. Like, okay, this is who we should be based on our personnel now that we've gotten stout around the interior of the offensive line. Now they're just drilling down. Now they're peeling back the layers. They figured it out. Now they're figuring out how to maximize. it. And that's moving Steve Avila to center. It's bringing in Jonah Jackson. You know, it's some of the stuff that are like, all right, how many different ways can we run duo now that we figured out it's our bread and butter run?

Okay, after that, how many different ways can we figure out the perfect compliments knowing we're going to be this team heading into the season in a way that I don't think they really did even at this time last year. So I feel like their ability to really sharpen their identity that they established a year ago. that's really exciting. And I think that the personnel really doesn't have that many weaknesses. This was a top 10 offense last year. When Kyra Williams and Matthew Stafford were on the field, they were number one in EPA per play. They were better than the San Francisco 49ers.

That was with Cooper Cup like dragging one of his legs around. That was with Tutu Atwell being their number three receiver for half of the season. Now, I was there last week. You were there. Cooper Cup looks fine. He's completely healthy. He's practicing. He looks good.

He's come into the season. season healthy. Them dropping DeMarcus Robinson into his role within this offense. I know people on the outside are probably thinking, God, year eight, DeMarcus Robinson, and we're going to do this. I really do think that what he gives them, when you combine it with the other past catching skill sets they have, it makes sense to me. He's an ex. He's a vertical player, and they are really excited about him. I mean, not just a, oh, yeah, he's our third guy, like, actively enthusiastic about what he's going to give them being a part of this offense the whole year, and even areas that should be a concern like Tyler Higbee tearing his ACL in January and being on sort of a murky timeline to get back,

this team signed Colby Parkins and in free agency. Like maybe you can nitpick about some of the depth. Like if they lose one of these major pieces, it's going to be an issue. But they have Blake Corum for Kyron Williams now. They have some depth along the offensive line. Joe Nobom is still there. If they lose Pooker or Cooper Cup, maybe this is a huge deal. but I just don't think that's enough to dissuade me from having the enthusiasm I have about this group.

Like, I truly think there's a world where Matthew Stafford is on a track to be the MVP of the league based on the ceiling that this offense has coming into the year. Absolutely. And that's the thing. If your best argument against an offense is, oh, well, their best players might get hurt. Like, what's the point of this exercise? Like, there's no reason to do that. And I want to say quickly, too, the quorum pick is literally the perfect guy for this backfield. If their whole run game,

duo is about having vision, having the confidence to run downhill, and having balance. Corum, I have some questions about what he can give you in terms of being explosive and being in space. He checks all of those boxes incredibly well. He is a very smart runner. And so for them to get like the Kyron clone

to come in and spell Kyrin, this team just has it all, man. They're so cool. With Marcus Robinson on the field last year, they would have been fourth and explosive play rate over the course of the entire season. They are explosive and efficient and versatile. And I just think that, again, you gave Sean McVeigh an entire offseason with mostly the same staff.

I mean, that's another part of this. I mean, they didn't really lose anybody. So this group has been able to just take the entire off season and say, all right, you guys fucked up and let us figure this out. Now what's it going to look like is we get to act too with a better version of the players that we had last year? I think that there's a chance we get some fireworks when this thing actually gets kicked off and we get to see what this offense looks like in practice. So that means you had the chiefs at two? I did. Yep.

I still, just like I said, when you have Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, I'm going to give you so much benefit of the doubt. And I really, you know, for as much as we talked about a little bit, the offensive line, not being what it was supposed to be last year, I have such a hard time believing it's not going to get better. Like it will get some degree of better. And if they just lift the run game, even back to average, you add that with Patrick Mahomes getting some more weapons, some more very fast weapons. they're going to figure it out by the time we get to serious football. Yeah, truly the only reason that I probably don't have them higher is because I just, I'm not sure what the urgency is going to look like all year. I mean, if Kelsey's playing 60% of the snaps because they're trying to keep him on ice,

what does that mean for the rest of the offense? But I'm with you. I actually have faith in the offensive line having a bounce back season. There isn't a ton of reason to believe they won't. Like it does feel like last year is a bit of an outwire, Juan Taylor heading into year two. there is absolutely a world where it all gets figured out with that group. And if they can run the ball a little bit more consistently and they do have a little bit more pop in the passing game,

they suddenly become very dangerous, very fast. Both of us have the same team at number one. I don't think we have to spend a lot of time on this. Until I have a reason to think that they're not going to be like a borderline historically efficient offense the way they happen over the last couple of years, like the San Francisco 49ers are my pick to be the best offense in the league. they should be everybody's the only arguments and i just kind of said the only arguments against them would be okay they have a lot of guys who have been injured before maybe they'll be hurt again but for the purpose of this exercise that's kind of a stupid argument and like i don't they just didn't

really lose anybody that is a serious contributor to this offense i think we've seen over the past two years with with kyle having a quarterback like purdy he's been able to consistently change the offense over what it was for really even dating back like forever as long as you're as I can remember Shanahan as a play caller. Like, this is just, there's every reason to believe in this team. The skill players are too good. The quarterback is as good as it's ever been in this system. They just do it all, man.

Like, they've got, they just have everything. Maybe if you want to nitpick, the offensive line is a concern as we get into the playoffs. Like, that group, they didn't really add to it. It is a problem against some of the best teams in the league when they're forcing them to drop back. Okay. Like, they were historically good last year over the course of the regular season. Like, I still believe they could do that again.

Maybe Iyuk is a little disgruntled based on what's happened, but he has every incentive to play well and play himself into a monster deal, whether it's either with San Francisco or somewhere else over the next couple of years and then injuries. So, I mean, that's it. And that's even if you're nitpicking. Per True Media, only nine teams since 2000 had a higher success rate than the 2003 San Francisco 49ers. We're talking like the 07 Patriots, the 04 Colts, the 2011 Patriots and Saints. These are all-time units. And you can look at some of the weaknesses, quote-unquote, that crept up in the playoffs, right? Oh, the chiefs played all this man against them.

And what are they going to do if teams do that? You have to have the horses that the chiefs had last year to do this. It's not like that was a weakness over the course of the season. They were twice as efficient against man coverage as they were on overall dropbacks. They averaged 10 yards in attempts when teams played man against them last year. Like unless you're trotting out, unless Trent McDuffie and Lageria Sneed are walking through that door and you got spags just cooking back there with some of the pressure packages, just play man is not going to be the answer. Like that was never the answer against this team last year. No, because who one on one can cover Brandon Ayuk? Who is supposed to run with George Kittle? If you're playing man, God bless whoever is covering Christian McCaffrey out of the bat. Like it just there's no there's no winning. It just doesn't make a lot of sense. Like,

their weaknesses creep up in one game samples against the best, best teams in the league. It's not like other teams where these weaknesses are actually long concerns over a 17 game sample. If you only get exposed in the Super Bowl, you're fine. You're pretty good. Like I think this is not a problem.

Exposed. They were like drive away from winning the game. Exactly. Someone has to lose it, right? Like there's like at a certain point, yeah, it's just ridiculous. Like in terms of will they get where they need to be?

I have like zero. doubt that they're going to be the best offense in the league. The only thing I want to add is like, I think at this point it's very cool that the Kyle offense is a lot more like smoke and mirrors. They still kind of use, they lean more into gap stuff, but it's a little bit more as an obvious counter punch. Whereas Sean McVeigh has just been like fully like, no, man, we're just, I just want to punch you in the face and some of the smoking mirror stuff is like my counterpunch. It's cool how they've kind of become the reciprocate of each other, even though we kind of bucket them together. That's all I wanted to add at the end. I think that's right. And I think that at its core, I think that Sean was

chasing, even if structurally it's not the same and schematically, it's not the same. I think Sean was chasing the play style and the attitude that the Niners play with a little bit. Like, the physicality doesn't necessarily manifest in downhill runs with a lot of beef along the offensive line. But if you watch the Niners play, every single guy on that offense brings a certain mindset. Like the receivers block with a certain vibe that I think translates to really good offense in 2023. And I think that there were a couple years, even when they were good, where the Rams weren't necessarily that sort of team. And that's kind of what I mean. We're like that all the rest of you guys fucked up because they were able to find that last year.

And I do think that that spells trouble for everybody else. So I could not be more excited about watching the Rams and the Seahawks play each other twice. The nine and the Seahawks play each other twice. Like the NFC West and some of the offenses we've got cooking over there combined with some of the defenses they're going to be playing against, it's going to be much watch every single week. So very much looking forward to that. Let's run through this very quickly one more time.

Give me your top 10 in reverse order before we get out of here. Yeah, so mine was Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, Texans, Packers, Lions, Rams, and then your two Super Bowl. contenders from last year, the Chiefs and the 49ers. So I had the Ravens at 10, the Bill's at 9, the Bengals at 8, the Packers at 7, the Dolphins at 6, the Chiefs at 5, the Texans at 4, the Lions at 3, the Rams at 2, and the 9ers at 1. The offenses aren't that fun.

For the most part, offenses are consistent from year to year. You're betting on the group of teams you should probably bet on. You can maybe throw a wild card in there, but I think we probably understand who most of the best offense is the league are going to be. Even last year, when we had a surprise team like the Texans, we addressed this. They finished 14th in offensive DVOA. Defense, when we do that next week, that's going to be a little bit of a different story. We've got a lot of potential entries into the defensive list that you can make an argument for.

So I'm looking forward to that one. We will be back on Friday. I think with my good buddy Mitchell Schwartz, I think that's going to be the plan. He's got a new kid, so I'm not going to lock him into it right now. But I think that's going to be the plan. So we'll be back Friday with Mitch. Until then, sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We will talk to you very soon.