The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Predicting the top-10 offenses of 2023

Episode Date: August 4, 2023

If Robert Mays and Nate Tice are right, this is going to be a great year to watch offenses in the NFL. The guys had more trouble than ever whittling their predicted lists of the league's top-10 offenses down to 10. So who made their respective cuts? Find out on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThe Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I am doing wonderful. I am in L.A.

I am like somewhat near the beach where I'm staying because we're the ramps and Chargers practice at, which is a great excuse to be over in this area known as Laguna Beach. My first time here in my life. And it's like, yeah, I can understand why they did a TV show about high. schoolers here because it is just gorgeous. But I am, I'm wonderful. My batteries are recharge. I am so fired up for the show. Fired up for camp. Ask me in about 14 weeks when it's like week 10. But right now I am beyond excited for football. Excited to see you too, buddy. You and Bellar. That was, there was sight for sore eyes after a long break. It's great to see.

I'm glad you feel that good because I'm on day 10 of my travels here before I go home tomorrow. I'm in Atlanta. It's been a good visit with the Falcons. It's been really enjoying it. It's been a great start to training camp. It's so fun to be around these teams and be talking to these teams and just get a sense of how everyone's feeling. Spoiler alert, everyone feels pretty good before they've lost the game in the NFL. So it's kind of where we are right now.

Everybody's going to be an all pro. Everyone's going to be a pro bowler. Well, guess what? It's fitting that that's the tenor of this conversation and the tenor of what's going on right now because we are going to talk about some rosy outlooks today. We are going to predict the top 10 offenses in the NFL, are each of our top 10 offenses in the NFL, by DVOA, EPA, whatever you want to do it, right?

Yeah. By some sort of success rate, who will finish as the top 10 offenses in the NFL? Earlier today, you tweeted out, half jokingly, that when you tried to make this list, you had over half the league. Yep.

This was incredibly hard. It was. It was. Last year, I remember last year I was on the road when we were doing this too and doing it from some hotel room and some random place in America. I had a hard time getting to 10 because there were so many teams with new quarterbacks and things in flux. And hilariously, I think two of the final top 10 teams on our lists were the Broncos and the Colts. And we threw them on there because we were kind of like, I guess this makes sense. And then both of those teams finished as two of the worst offenses in football.

But the more important thing is we had a hard time landing on 10 teams last year. This year, you could make an argument truly for half the teams in the NFL. There are some teams I'm leaving off of here that I can't even believe that I'm leaving off of this list. But I had to do it because that's how difficult it was to pair it down. That's exactly it. I remember the Colts conversation last year because it's like, if you squint, you can see it. You can maybe see it. Matt Ryan, they've been pretty good.

Yeah, and we threw the ramps in the bucks were easy ones for us. We're like, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, more of the same. But that's how hard this is. And the thing was, that was really, yeah, like seven teams we felt okay about last year. I seriously, I put this down. And when I started numbering off, I said half teams, it's 17 teams that I basically have notes on that I could just like, if this was debate class and you're like, hey, make an argument for this team. It's like, got it. Let's go.

But it's there. That's how hard it was. I am just like you. I would say there's really three teams, but two for sure that I at first were easily in my top 10. And as I did the work, I slowly dropped them. And I'm shocked that I dropped them. So hopefully my argument makes some sense. And we'll see as we talk it out.

But I think as a neutral football fan, us doing this show or anybody who enjoys the NFL, it's going to be a fun year for offenses. It's just so many interesting teams and just different ways they're going about it. So it's going to be a lot of fun to talk about, a lot of fun to watch this year. Who is the spiciest one that you left off your list? the dolphins. I also left the dolphins off my list. And before,

before I get a lot of a 305 area code sweet tweets oriented at me. I had to think so hard about it because in so many ways, it's just not worth drawing the ire of dolphins fans. But after talking it out on multiple different shows this week and after thinking about it, I have my reasons, but I'm curious to hear what yours are. Mine, mine are. it's not an indictment of Mike McDaniel.

It's not an indictment of any of like their past catchers or anything. I actually see what Mike McDaniel had did at the end of the year before Tua got heard and the adjustments they made. It's just I'm not betting on the health of this team. That is why I am bearish on them is they, it's none of these guys stay healthy. And so that's where I could see some ebbs and flows of the season where they might just like last year, first half of the season's like, holy crap. They looked like the 98 Vikings. Like they are just bombs away on everybody. But as the season went along, two got banged up, yada, yada, yada.

So that's why I ended up kind of dropping them off. And really, if they finished top five, I am not surprised whatsoever. But just for me, I think it's just the long-term health of the season. Adjustments defenses are going to make to what they were doing. And I do think that Mike McDaniel made some tweaks. But I just, I don't know if that is enough. I will have to see it through a 17 game season. I've talked about this on multiple shows this week.

Talked about with Sando, talked about with Barnwell, knew I was going to have to trot it out again because I'd come to this conclusion where they weren't in my top 10. The health is obviously a question, and it extends beyond Tua. Taron Armstead played 10 games again last year.

He was banged up in games that he did end up playing. Their swing tackle eye is a win. He's also struggled to stay healthy. He was on the Pupplist before the season even started. He started practicing again, and he's back on the field.

But even if they have an injury at one of those tackle spots, you can't even rely on the guys that are their backups. Austin Jackson, they're starting right tackle, has struggled to stay healthy. So the offensive line health, to his health, obviously is a concern.

But I keep coming back to what their passing game looked like in those four games at the end of the season when he was even healthy. I've said this again, multiple times on shows this week. They were dead last in passing success rate from weeks 13 to 18 when he was on the field. And there are some fluky interceptions,

and that's not even what I'm talking about. It's success rate. It's down to down success. They were not consistent. When teams were willing to challenge them at the line of scrimmage and disrupt the timing of those plays, he struggled to not play on time. When you're taken away the first place he wants to go with the football, that passing game does not look the same.

And it led to some more explosive plays because teams were daring them to kind of take some of those shots over the top. And there were some long touchdowns and they missed some even more long touchdowns. but I just am not convinced that just because he's back healthy, they're going to hit their ground running and be this all cylinders firing passing offense. And their running game should be a bigger part of what they do this year. Teams are daring them to run the ball. And we haven't seen them be a monstrous run game when they have these advantageous boxes.

So there are just enough questions to me based on what they looked like in the second half of last season that even if I do have some faith in Mike McDaniel and the staff, which I do, I still have enough reservations that I just wasn't willing to put them on here, which seems crazy, but that's kind of where I landed. They, when I did my initial, initial list, like just off the top of my head, how I would rank them before I started diving, they were sixth. And then I've dropped them basically to 12th. And once it was all said and done, if I had to put a number on it. And just what you said with the efficiency, that's the one, that's the stat I had with them is that some alarm bells go off for me or when a team is middle of the pack and success rate, but strictly explosive. and the dolphins were explosive.

They were still the most explosive offense in the NFL over that four-week stretch. Still. Yep. Easily. And the passing and overall, even if the run game was an explosive, the passing was so explosive that carried it. And that leads me to some, like the inefficiency or the lack of consistent efficiency. It's just hard to build a house on that. Is that, yes, you can get hot.

Like, that's scary in the playoffs. But it also can be a lead to a three-point game because you're barely getting first. downs and churning the chains. And it's third and 10 after third and 10, after third and 10, third and nine, third and 12 because first and second down just weren't moving the chains or staying ahead of the chains. And so that, that was the exact kind of stat ahead. But it's kind of funny, too, is that the dolphins were the best team in avoiding three and outs last year, but they were like 20th in success rate.

So they'll get that first, first down, and then they hit a wall. But just kind of, that's just a funny kind of difference. Usually the teams that are best at three and outs are the best offenses, period. And so there's just a little difference there. But that is, yeah, I think I'm totally agreeing with you. It's just that lack of sustained efficiency has me just a little hesitating a little bit, especially if they have to rely on the wrong game, just everything you just kind of laid out there. We've seen teams overcome this.

The Bengals were a very good example. The Bengals were hyper explosive two years ago, and then they tapped into this level of efficiency last season by making some tweaks within their offense. The Dolphins may do that. Mike McDaniel is a very good football coach. There may be solutions to this problem, but that's a projection. And with all of these other teams that I feel like, I don't know, I just feel a little bit better about for a bunch of different reasons. And then you throw the health wrenches into it.

And it's just one more reason to be like, I don't know. I don't know. Are we sure? So the dolphins are one of mine. The other one that I just figured I'd throw out now that I think is probably going to make you sad. The Cowboys did not make my list. That's the one. They're still on my list.

They're 10th. So I'll just, I'll just. Spoilers right there. But them and the other team that I have one that surprised you. And these are the two teams I decide between. I'll just throw it out. So we'll get to the Cowboys in a sec. I can't believe these words about to come out of my mouth is the Lions.

I have them outside my time. Wow. And it pained me. I have them pretty far up there. And so this is the process I went through with the Lions. And we don't have to dig into this super far because we can save it for when we get to my, I don't want to spoil it. My top something. I also thought, can they do this again?

You know, can they really do this again? Jared Gough is their quarterback. We've only seen their play caller do it for one year. They didn't add any top line weapons this year. It's a couple of rookies and how good can rookies be right out of the gate. So I had all these things coming into it. We're like, I'm just not sure. And then I went and watched them.

I hate that you're saying this because that's what I did. I pain me. I went and watched them. And there were so many aspects to the offense where I just came away thinking, fuck this is good. Just so many aspects to it makes sense and all the pieces fit together and some of the ways that they attack teams. So we can get into that. And I think it's a worthwhile conversation because I had a very similar thought before we started this.

So it's a little bit surprising to hear you say that. But I also probably understand how you got there, even if I ultimately don't agree. Right before this pod, I was telling you I was split between two teams and it was the Cowboys and the Lines. So they were like my 10A, 10B, I guess, 10 and 11. And I mean, shoot, I just even look at like underlying metrics. It's like, they're fantastic. Like this. Top five, DVOA, six and success rate, just a good in passing.

And of course, they have a great offensive line. So even if like the rushing was more league average, I think it's going to improve because they got David Montgomery, who I think is going to be a bump up. And of course, Jemir Gibbs. So it's, I was, that was the easy argument. Like they easier were my top 10 when I first did this list. And then just like that the receivers, you know, I love Amarrest St. Brown. then Marvin Jones is starting.

Ooh. And, you know, Josh Reynolds is a fine auxiliary player. And guess what here, buddy? You could be a top 10 offense with Marvin Jones starting. We're going to get to a team on this list a little bit later. It is so funny that you say all this because I had the exact same thoughts before I started watching it. And then I don't want to give too much away. But I totally understand where you're coming from.

I'll save some more. For what we talk about, I'll save some more. But trust me, Lions fans, I love you guys. And like I love the Lions offense. Like trust me, I'm going to watch them week and week out. It's just just had a couple of hesitations that made it, made me knock them off the list. I don't want to get too far into some honorable mentions.

If we both don't land on some of these teams, maybe we'll talk about them at the end and why they didn't make the list. But let's start with your number 10 team because that's great, because I did not have the Cowboys on there. The Cowboys were probably 11th or 12th for me. The Dolphins and the Cowboys were my first two off. So why would you have the Cowboys at 10? And that arguably maybe not even higher,

considering some of the heights we've seen them reached over the last couple of years. Right. This is, well, everyone that listens to the show knows I like Dak, but it's the added weapon of Brandon Cooks is really doing a lot for me. I think that just opens up so much with this offense. And just looking at this offense at first, I'm like, man, you know, they don't rate as highly as I remember them. And I always do that with the Cowboys offense. And then you look at when Dak was playing. And it's like, oh, there it is. You know, top five in success rate, third and pass success rate only behind the chiefs and bills. So pretty damn good company when it's Mahomes, Josh Allen, and your offense. Like, that's kind of what you want to.

to do. They weren't overly explosive, but that's where Brandon Cooks comes in. And that's what opens it up and truly getting a guy that could be an intermediate and deep threat with Gallup, with CD Lamb. And I love the synergy of those three. You got a true Z, a true slot and a true X. That is, that's what you like in your passing game. I like their tight ends. They're the big 10 assortment of tight ends. You got, you got Wisconsin, Indiana, and two Michigan guys and their top four tight ends. It's they recruit, they scout one area just for their Midwest Scout gets a lot of work when they're looking at tight ends. But I like them because they're balanced.

They're so versatile. The fact that you have, they have four of them. They're going to keep four tight ends on the roster this year. Schoonmaker hasn't practiced. So he's going to be, who knows what his usures is going to be after they took him in the second round. But the other three guys who the names I'm going to probably get a butcher and just mix them all up again.

Peyton Hennershot, Jake Ferguson and Sean McKeon. Nice. So McKee and Cana County play that fullback role for them. I think that he, they won't carry a fullback. most likely, but they'll still be able to do some stuff that plays out like 21 personnel. And in talking to people there, one of my first thoughts about them was, all right, you're an 11 personnel team now. That's your best 11.

You have cooks and gallop there now. And there was kind of a, you know, yes, we'll do some of that, but we love kind of the layers that some of the tight end packages give us, where we're a little bit harder to defend. And I think because they have those four guys, it gives them so many different ways that they can deploy whatever 11 guys they throw out there. I think there's a lot of validity to that line of thinking. I think there's going to be a general theme and just a lot of these top offenses in general is just the versatility of personnel and looks they can throw at you now.

And I think so many teams are getting to that. Maybe there's one team, you know, the Bengals. I don't think that's going to surprise anyone that they're going to be up there. But it's their one team that, you know, they live in 11. But all these other teams, they get tight ends and I don't say fullbacks, but tight ends of receivers and different types of receivers. They're really building these rooms out. And I like it because Ferguson was really nice last year.

You know, of course, he's go badgers. But just, you know, a hender shot and schoonmaker. Schoonmaker's got some juice if you can say he can get on the field. With all that, those guys are all auxiliary pass catchers. So even if they're in 12 with two tight ends, Brandon Cooks could be your X and CD is your Z. And then you got to 12. And that's a great lineup. You can do so much with that.

I agree. CD is a great blocker. And again, O line, and then we get to the offensive line. they got the Smith guys on the left. Beaudish played really well last year. He really improved. I mean, he got named to a Pro Bowl. Maybe a little Cowboys bump there.

But, you know, he's at least above average at this point. Zach Martin, hopefully, they work out the contract stuff. I'm sure they will. And of course, Steals coming back at right side. So it's this offensive line, of course, is the big thing. You got Tyron Smith on there. So injuries are always going to be a thing. But you're protected from that, hopefully.

If you could just bump Tyler Smith back outside. My concern this year is that they don't have the interior offensive line depth that they've had in years past. So now if Tyler Smith is your de facto swing tackle, if one of those guys goes down, then you don't have somebody to replace him like you did last year. I have kind of a bold take with Tyler Smith is that he'll be a pro bowler this year. At guard. At guard.

If it works out, they all stay healthy. He stays at guard. He's going to be a pro bowler this year. And I really do think that. I'm really high on him. But it's funny, you're breaking down these offenses. The weakness of the Cowboys is probably running back, even with Tony Pollard. Yeah.

They don't have a lot of depth there and they don't have a lot of beef. they short yardage might be an interesting thing with this team this year that even though Zeke Zeke is uh Seth Galena from PFF has a great line about Zeke. He said it's his favorite runnerback from negative two yards to two yards meaning if you need five yards. If you need three yards, Zeke's going to get you three yards. If you need five yards, Zeke's going to get you three yards. Ezekiel, Ezekiel Horde. Leroy Elliott. That's what he is. Anyone that watches the 90s football back there. But I think that is one I think, you know, Tony Power, of course, is explosive.

He's not great in past protection. That was always his hangup still is. So that's interesting, like as far as how they're going to mitigate that and navigate that, but I think they can. And of course, there's the Mike McCarthy alarm bell. So you said that's their weakness. I keep coming back to we have not seen the play caller with this group of players. And that's ultimately, we left them off my list. I get it.

Because you just don't know. I don't know what it's going to look like. Brian Schottenheimer's there as the offensive coordinator. I know McCarthy is the play caller and that'll be the most important thing, but how much do they want to change? That little bit of uncertainty was enough for it. Because even if there are some other changing factors for some of these other offenses on my list, I either think they're changing in a good way where they're upgrading or the play caller is staying the same and there are enough stabilizing forces to kind of more easily project them.

So ultimately that was the tiebreaker with Dallas is that I like so many of these other offenses and I just don't know about Mike McCarthy, they're off. Right. No, I get it as a tiebreaker because that's my last note on them, because I kind of had like an overall, like just like a quick little bullet point. Believe or not, I try to narrow down my notes, guys. And, but I think with McCarthy is after we've seen kind of how Aaron Rogers's career played out, you know, at the end of McCarthy area and after McCarthy is that some of those kind of slant flat memes might be more Aaron Rogers driven than Mike McCarthy. But you just don't know. But you just don't know. And that's the thing. That's my problem. The last non-Rogers offense we saw was the 49ers with Alex Smith when they're 32nd in the NFL.

And it works the other way, too, because the Packers were actually a top 10 offense by DVOA, the last time that Mike McCarthy was their offensive court was the play caller there when Rogers was healthy. But how much of that is you have Aaron Rogers. Even if you're a little bit disappointing, you can still be eighth in DVOA. So there are just so many different questions. Listen, if this team rolls and they're really good, maybe even better than they were last year, just put a crow in the oven and just pop it right in front of me. I'm ready to do.

I'm ready to go. I will be so wrong about Mike McCarthy and that's fine. Maybe I'm just misjudging Mike McCarthy's ability to do this at a high level. But I think Kellamore is widely respected for a reason. They did a lot of good stuff offensively. And this is a be careful what you wish for sort of deal. You wanted this, Mike? Okay, here we go.

Yep. Oh, I know. The first thing he says, like, oh, he always wants to throw the ball. And it's like they had like a high run rate. It's kind of like, hmm, that's a little disconnect there. But I stuck with it. I've kind of with the Cowboys, it's hard for me to quit them, especially I just think Dak will will them into a brutally efficient offense, just how he plays.

So I just think, I'm hoping that there's no stank from the coaching staff. But who'd you say you have number 10? I'm very, very curious now. The Cleveland Browns. Ah, see, they would have been like 13th on my list. I know this might seem crazy, considering the offenses that I've left off. But I mentioned this to Barnwell earlier in the week. The Browns were fourth in EPA per play on offense before Deshawn Watson started for them last year.

They were fifth than offensive DVOA from weeks 1 to 11. If they get solid quarterback play, truly just solid quarterback play, we have seen them be a decidedly top 10 offense. So he doesn't need to be the guy he was in the last time we saw him play in Houston when I thought he might have been the second best quarterback in the league. truly. It seemed like he was on that trajectory the last time we saw him as a full-time starter. He looked so off last year after the amount of time that he had spent just on the bench. And his feel for the position and his feel for the game had clearly eroded. And maybe

he just never gets that back. But it sounds like they believe he's going to be better this year. And even if, again, he's not fantastic. He doesn't need to be. All he needs to be is a Jacobi Perci-level quarterback for them to be a top-10 offense again. When you think about the supporting cast around him, in fact that the offensive line is still one of the best in the league, the running game is still going to be excellent. Amari Cooper in maybe a more pass-happy offense, he had a really good year last year.

So I think his production is going to maybe fall more in line with what people think of, with elite receivers, if they are more traditional and run past splits this year, etc. I just think that so many factors line up where, again, if they just get mediocre quarterback play, why can't this offense be as good as it was with Djigobi percent for the first two-thirds of last season? And that's a top-ten offense. Yeah.

And I understand the argument. I have the same kind of stats I looked at was because they were a team originally I thought of as a top-10 team. I just kind of bumped them down. And again, these teams I have left off, there are no, it's like any of these teams I see as a top six offense. Like not even top 10, like really up there as an elite unit. So it's not a detriment to it. But it's just like watching Deshaun and I broke down two more games the last couple of weeks on paternity leave. I'm still watching film. And then looking at the stats and I was like, man, he

he was fucking bad. Like, it was like, it was like barely playable bad. And I mean, even just, just laid out on some stats. They're 24th in passing success rate. They're just ahead. I'm sorry, just ahead of them was the Colts, the commanders, and the Titans when Deshaun was starting. And just, they were just ahead of the Patriots. Those are teams we were making fun of, like as far as their passing games. Those teams are getting made fun of for how bad and atrocious and stagnant they are as far as throwing the ball. And that's just hard for me to break. But again, like you said, even if he's averageish, I could see the bump because the offensive line's sick. It's a easily top five unit, top three unit, no matter how you shake it. Nick Chub is Nick Chub, probably the best

running back right now. And I even like their backup. Jerome Ford I was super high on coming into the draft last year. I like him. And Joku's kind of a nice, kind of well-rounded tight end nowadays. He's a good blocker and everything. So the run game with Bill Callahan is going to be top five, top six. It's just kind of hard for them not to see it. Yeah, it does sleepwalk to that. That's what they always do. That's what they do. And offensive line injuries may the one reason they wouldn't.

They only lost nine starts combined along their offensive line last year. You have to say that every time. Every team. It feels silly. Like, of course, if there's a rash of injuries at a single position group, especially on the line, things can crater see the 2020 Rams. But again, it's still worth mentioning. Because that's the last thing I want is that the Browns are bottom five on offense this year.

And people come screaming at me in January and their offensive line. had a historic rash of injuries. Playing a bunch of guys that signed the week before, practice squad and all that. Yeah. And I do like even in how they short up the past catchers, like Mario, Mario, Cooper. But Cedric Tillman, they drafted from Tennessee. I like him as an axe. And then Elijah Moore, they traded for.

Elijah Moore is a great bet. I think there were two guys, in my opinion, who were probably unjustified sacrificial lambs with the 22 jets. One was Michael Fleur and the other was probably Elijah Moore. So going to get those guys when they're probably at the nidier of their value, I think is good for the Rams and the Browns. I think so too. And again, it pained me not to include this team because I am overall as a team. I'm pretty high on the Browns this year because of what they did on defense.

Like I think they are going to be a good team this year. I don't think that's outlandish to say. But it all rides on the $250 million quarterback. Like that that's, that's a lot of offense success relies on the quarterback, but especially this team if they want to assent to where I think they want to. be. I will acknowledge that I do think that there's one more downside case. It's tempting to look at what they did with Berset last year, drop Watson in and just say, okay, that's a top 10 offense. I think there is a timeline where they never quite figure out how to square what he's good at and the way he wants to play and the old structure of their

offense because they feel compelled, I think to spread it out a little bit more, play a little more, play a more shotgun, throw it a little bit more, and maybe those two things just never align, where this under-center downhill run game that they had that made them great over the last few years and lifted the floor of the quarterback, they can no longer lean on that because that's now how the quarterback wants to play.

So it's possible that this kind of thought experiment of just dropping him into the version of the offense we've seen over the last couple years, that that's not even a real thing. And I'm willing to concede that. maybe the gap kind of ideologically between those two things, they can never reconcile. And then maybe this never works out. So I want to acknowledge that that's possible even if I don't think it's likely.

That's a good point. And I do think Stefansky is a good offense of mind. And that is something that even just watching on film, you could feel, knowing Stefansky, and he's more or less, he's got a lot of trees he's drawing from. But when you look at their dropback passing game, it was so different than what you would see with Deshaun with the Texans under Bill O'Brien. which was so much five and seven step down the field, boom, not even play action, just straight drop back vertical. And then you watch Deshaun Watson with the Browns and he's throwing stick.

And I'm like, kind of, you know, putting the governor on your Porsche here, you know, you're kind of making them like, dude, a little small thing where it's like, just unleash him down the field. You already run the ball really well. So I do, I would agree with that, that there is some of that disconnect. But that's what this whole offseason is for. And, you know, we do see the teams that do figure out the 2021 ramps is the ultimate case of this with Stafford dropping in.

them figuring out going to gun and yeah the run game took a little bit of a hit but they lost their identity they all big time and it was to their benefit yeah but the browns i think there is a concern there a slight concern of how do we maintain the identity we've had offensively while also maximizing our quarterback and how do we manage to hop between those things and that can be more difficult than we make it out to be some time so now i'm like does i talk more about it maybe i'm for simplifying it and they should have made my list, but I'm comfortable putting them on there. You know, that was me going through the Cowboys right now. It was like, man, all right, all right.

Well, no, I'm sticking with it. Point your foot and go. Get north. Who do you have nine? I have the Seahawks. I have the Seattle Seahawks. They did not make my list. Okay.

They were one of my first teams off, but I totally understand how that you can get there with them. No one bumped up and down more than the Seahawks. I had them on, off, on off, and I ended up having them on. and I think this is a nice spot. I think looking at all these teams that ended up, I just looked at DVOA, which is from football outsiders, and all the top 10 offenses had a top 10 passing game other than the Browns who were 12th. So it wasn't outlandish.

All these offenses at all the top 12 offenses had a top 10 passing game or a top 12 pass a game, I'm sorry, in an above average run game. And that's where my issues, I'll start with the issues maybe with the Seahawks offense, is the run game is not very efficient. it wasn't very efficient last year. All boom or bust. All boomer bust. Oh, I want one stat right here.

It's Kenneth Walker's like basically boom bust rate last year. He was top 10 in runs that went 10 or more yards on first and second down. He was bottom three in runs that went zero or negative yards. He, my nickname for him, I think it's going to stick for me at least. No, just just me. I'm not saying stick generally. Is that is that he's Sonic. He's Sonic the headshot.

He just runs into walls and he just keeps spinning, spinning, spinning, spinning, spinning. And then sometimes it works. and sometimes you just know a bunch of coins fall out of them. But I think just what they've added to this offense, not only just having fantastic tackles. I really think Charles Cross has all probability in his career, not this year, but down the road. Abe Lucas looks like a long-term starter at right tackle. I think they tried to shore up the interior offense aligned, which was their, you know,

woe last year along with injuries up there. And I really like the center they drafted, Olu, Alu, Wattimi from Michigan. I really liked him coming out. They drafted him to fifth round. I think they're giving them a chance to start at center. I think that's going to be good. It's just shoring up, get some time.

Now you're getting too far for me. No. This idea that we're dropping in these fifth round picks to the interior of the offensive line. I understand that. That's okay. No, no. This is one of those,

you know, on paper, this is starting to make sense. But this is a bad to average. This is bad to average bump. That's what I'm going. I'm going. I think fantastic tackle duel.

Bad to average on the interior. Fantastic. We're doing fantastic with Abe Lucas already. Ready? Oh, yeah. Charles Cross and Abe Lucas. Okay, so how many tackle pairings do you think are already better than that? How many you got off top of your head? I'd say at least five to seven. Five to seven. Yeah. I mean, this is hard to do off the top of my head. The Vikings in the NFC. North, I think the Vikings absolutely do. Okay. The Falcons, I would say right now, with Jake Matthews and Caleb McGarry. The Browns definitely. Um, oh, that's, Will's doing a lot of work there. I'd say the, the Cowboys, when they're healthy with Terrence Steel and Tyron Smith. Trying to think of other ones that I'd rather have. This is tough.

You put me on this. All of them, all of them in their second year of their career, too, that you're not going to, but that's the problem. They're already good. I think you're projecting them to make a jump this year. No, I'm not. I already think they're good. And I think they're going to get better.

I think that's just, even if they just stagnate and stay at it. the same. I think they're still good. I like them. But yeah. So, okay, maybe not fantastic, but good. How about that? I'll give you that. I'll give you that a compromise there. But having said all this, all this, they added JSN on offense. And I think the big woe they had last year is when they got to 11 personnel. They had nothing to really attack over the middle of the field. Yeah, they were a 12 by default team last year. 12 by default. And having said that, I do like their tight ends. But now, again, this is a versatile offense. They can pick and choose how they're going to attack you. And I like that. Their passing game is great. I really like it because they

do a lot of staples and they do it all well. Vertical, play action, quick game, screens. I like all that. So I'm betting on this passing game being very good. Like a truly easy top 10 passing game, if not better. Top eight passing game. Top seven, whatever you want to throw that number out. I haven't said top three or anything, but about there. And I think that the run game can be average. I like Zach Sharbonne. I know he's been banged up and whatnot, and I think he's a late signing. I think he has a shoulder right now. But I think he's going to provide that efficiency as a back and comparing him with hopefully

a healthy Kenneth Walker. So I like the additions they made. They were a good team last year before fading down the stretch offensively. So I'm betting on that that arrow is going to keep pointing up. And we see no drop off from Gino Smith. Part of the reason they faded down the stretch last year is their offensive line just wasn't holding up in the second half of the season. And that's part of my concern still is that even if you're out.

optimistic about it, especially on the interior. It's still a projection. And you'd have to have some faith in that. And that's part of why I'm worried. And I loved watching Gino last year. And just some of the high-end throws that he made last season and some of the high-end throws he was even willing to try made him such an enjoyable, exciting player to watch compared to some of the other just cowardly quarterback play we could see around the league

sometimes. But it's still only been 10 games where he was. was playing at that level. And even if you want to talk yourself into it because of how good he was in stretches last year, there just isn't that much, much earned benefit of the doubt with him and me at this stage. So I'm excited to watch them and I absolutely think that they can get there. But there are just, there were too many questions to me about certain personnel and the fact

that we just haven't seen it that many times from Gino over the course. He hasn't been in the chance, right? We only seen it for a season and a half. But I still feel like, ah, it's one year. It's one year. How can I just say, pencil amendment in the top ten? I just couldn't do it for that reason.

I get it. I would say up until Thanksgiving, if you just focus on them, I'd be like, oh, yeah, this is easy. And then those last five-ish weeks, it is a little scary

to have this bet, but like I said before, is that I think some of the things they added to provide some depth, maybe in the interior, even if they get to average ish on the interior, I think that was their biggest weakness.

And that's going to help out their run game, it's going to help everything else out, at least lift the bar a little bit. So that's why I'm betting on. I'm excited to watch this office. I think Shane Waldron went from a hot name to kind of like stepped back. And I think now he's getting his name back up there because he does some cool things.

And it's very sound. And I kind of always respect that and like that when I watch that with the offenses. Number nine for me, I assume they are higher on your list. I have the San Francisco 49ers at nine. Okay. You want me to say where mine is? Say, where'd you have them? I have them eighth.

Okay. So not that far off. I have them eighth. Yep. When I first did this, I just assumed they'd be in the top five. They were incredible last season with McCaffrey. So when McAfrey was on the field for them last year,

they had a 47% success rate on offense. Over the course of the season, it would have been the second highest in the league tied with Buffalo in the NFL. They averaged 6.3 yards per play with McCaffrey last year, which would have been tied with the chiefs for number one in the league over the course of the entire season. Their explosive play rate with Christian McCaffrey would have been tied with the dolphins for the highest rate in the NFL.

I say all that, and I'm sure people are like, well, okay, well, why do you have them all the way down at nine? Christian McCaffrey has struggled to stay healthy for his entire career. This offense, for the most part, was healthy in the right ways last season. I understand quarterback was one of those places that they weren't, but I think they've shown us that as long as the quarterback is willing to play point guard in the right ways, they can be incredible on offense. But if McAfree goes down, George Kittle has struggled to stay healthy for most of his career. I missed a couple games last year. Debo has been banged up consistently. And the other area that I'd be really worried about,

Aaron Banks, Spencer Burford, and Mike McGlinchie missed zero games combined last season. McGlunchy's not even there anymore. It's Colton McKivitts at right tackle. And at Guard, go look at the Niners Guard depth. I couldn't believe it. At a certain point, when you have this many stars, you can't build out depth in as many spots. and they use their free agent money on Javon Hargrave. They're shopping in an expensive aisle,

and it has prevented them from building up contingency plans and some of these other position groups. So there are a couple, even three or four game stretches on the offensive line and one McCaffrey injury away from this Death Star that they've built, looking like that half built that star in the way. Return of the John. Yes. That's kind of how it feels right now.

So I, the best word. Might be operational, though. The best version of it is terrifying. It is absolutely terrifying. And we saw that last year, but I can poke just enough holes in it where I feel a little bit better about some of these other teams. Yeah. I really don't have much to add.

Even the success rate, that stat was the same one I was going to throw out there. It's not even just rushing success rate. I think they're a third in passing. Just in general. Yeah. They were just good overall. It wasn't just the run game.

I think it's what people, some people think. It's not the, when people's eyes got back to the 49ers when they got hot at the end of the season, it was right when Brock Purdy started. So everyone's like, wow, Brock Purdy really, really lifted up this offense. It's like, yeah, no, it's CMC back there. And the shift that that death lineup, once they got to that death lineup, it just evolved everything. So I even like the role players, like Joanne Jennings is a nice, dirty work guy.

And Eli Mitchell is a really good number two back. My bet for the NFL rushing leader last year. because I thought the arrow was going to keep pointing up with them. But I, and Shanahan, the offensive line was his number one thing. And of course, I love the point you brought up that. When you trade away these picks, these middle round picks, these day two picks, that's when you usually take guards. That's when you take centers.

That's when you take these role players or like kind of guys that shore up or depth like you said. So Shanahan, though, is like the one coach that I'm like, he can navigate maybe poor a line play, but it's, it's hard. It's a tough ask. He is one guy that has proven that he can do it. So I understand that hesitation. That's why I put him eighth. I think when I first did this list, I think I'm at a fourth or something like that.

And I could just slowly drop them a little bit. I went through a very similar process. But even with the quarterback question marks, it's no matter what those three starts, Purdy, Lance, or Darnold, it's this is the one coach that I know can get the most out of it. So that's why it's not as big of a concern as it would be for the 31 other teams in the league. You know, like what quarterback are we starting? So I think that's why I can still justify them in the top 10. Of course, health is going to be the big thing.

But just to add to that, I just, I'm betting on Kyle Shanahan. I'm betting on the weapons and I'm hoping they stay healthy enough because it's another fun unit to watch. We have to at least acknowledge that there is a timeline where Brock Purdy just turns into a pumpkin at some point. And I know that they've gotten by with whoever a quarterback over the last couple years, as long as Jimmy or Brock Purdy has been on the field. but we've only seen a few games of Brock Purdy.

There's a chance that as this thing goes along and he's got to solve more problems because defenses have seen this version of the offense with McCaffrey, whatever, however you want to construe it. But he may have to navigate some stuff he's never had to navigate before. And this is still a seventh round pick that we haven't seen that much of. So I think that is at least worth acknowledging as we talk about the highs and the lows that this offense can hit. A seventh round pick who started what, like five, six games and he's coming off a UCL injury. We're still Still in the top 10, baby

The fact that it's still in the top 10 And that I feel a little bit uncomfortable Having them down this low It says all you need to know About Kyle Shanahanan on the weapons Yep, that's it That's what you're betting on Cal Shanan of the weapons, done

All right, you ready for me to just Put a noose around my neck here? I can't wait My number 18 Is the Los Angeles Chargers You can't quit them, can you? They're not my top 10. I'll just say it right now.

I can't believe I'm doing it again. I just, I can't, I truly can't believe it. This was my Cowboys. The Cowboys for me is a Chargers for you. I can't believe I'm doing it again. First number I'd throw out. First one. Last year, when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were on the field,

the Chargers average 0.19 EPA per dropback, which would have been second in the NFL behind the Chiefs. Ken and Allen missed eight games or seven games last season. Mike Williams missed a handful of time. The quarterback broke his rib cartilage early in the year and was hurt for most of the season. And this was still like an average offense for most of the year. The reason, two reasons that I feel comfortable putting them on here. One, Kellyn Moore.

Kellyn Moore coming in to be their offensive coordinator and the changes that will likely happen because he's there. I have faith that this is the right combination of players and play caller to get the most out of this offense. The biggest issue they had last year was not how compressed things felt and how infrequently they push the ball down the field. That was frustrating. But the biggest thing that hamstring this offense last year was their inability to run the football. They were 26th in early down rushing success rate last year. And in talking to coaches there and in talking to players there and in talking to play, players on that offensive line, they just never felt like they figured out what their run game

was. There was no cohesion. They were never on the same page. There was just a disconnect in that area of their offense. When Frank Smith left last year from being the offensive line coach for the Chargers to go be the Dolphins offensive coordinator, they brought in Brandon Nugent, who was an O-Line coach that had worked with Jolombardi in the past. I just don't think they ever figured out what their run game should look like.

They were trying all this. this different stuff, including a lot of perimeter runs, teams are giving them these light boxes. And I think their best runs last year were downhill runs. Alson-Neckler average 6.3 yards per carry on duo last year. He was third in the NFL among players with at least 20 carries on that exact run. If they can tap into, and somebody told me this, they said, if you look at somebody there, if you look at the best offenses in football, they do a little bit of everything in the run game, but they have one foundational run that they build everything off of.

Correct. So I think if the Chargers can figure out what the foundation of that run game is, because they have the pieces to do it. You can give as much lip service as you want, and you can talk yourself in circles with all of this shit that I'm sure sounds fake to people as I lay it all out. If you don't have the bodies, none of it matters. But they have the bodies.

Corey Lindsay is still a really good center. Zion Johnson in Year 2 is a first round pick is moving back to the position he played his whole life. at left guard. Rayshon Slater missed most of last season. He's an all pro left tackle. Jamari Sawyer was good for them at tackle last year. He's a guard.

That's where he's best. They have so much beef now at those interior spots. And their right tackle, Trey Pipkins, was hurt for most of last year. He had a sprain knee for most of the season. They have the personnel at front. If they tap into an identity for this to really work. And so the extension of that is they ran a ton of play action last year, a ton. because that's what Brands Daly wanted to do.

He brought Shane Day over as an offensive assistant. Shane was the quarterback's coach for the Niners, and they wanted this movement game that the Niners had. But when you don't have a run game foundation, and you're just kind of run and play action just to run it, and it's not connected to your run game at all, it's never going to work. I don't know if you saw me,

I was writing a note down, and I wrote play action, and I go, their play action was zoned, but they would run duo. And I know people think, oh, you don't have to be, fishing in the run give, yada, that's not really what this argument. It needs to be connected.

It needs to look like, that's how you get the suck up from the defense. If you're not running zone at all and also in your play action as zone, the smarter defense is going to go, okay, we know that's your play action. They're not even going to respond to the run game anymore. And their problem was when they would do that keeper stuff on early downs, the edge rushers they were playing against wouldn't even acknowledge the possibility of a run play. So Justin's got. guy in his face every single time they're running those plays. So now this is how you can build the argument. They have the personnel.

They have a really good quarterback. So if this stuff can kind of get some connective tissue between it and it can all start to make sense, you can imagine them being really good on offense. And the other aspect of this is, I truly think that Justin Herbert is somebody who wants to play the game the right way. Everything I've heard about him personality-wise. I guarantee you, when they were.

sitting there watching games and cut-ups with him and Joel and Barty. Joel and Barty is just showing him hours and hours of Drew Breeze tape. And Breeze is getting to the right guy and he's checking the ball down and he's just mechanically playing the position the right way. Justin Herbert is not Drew Breeze. No. I want an especially not late career Drew Breeze, which I'm sure is with the tape they were watching. Yeah.

Everything we've heard from Chargers Camp and I was there and you're going to be there over the next day or so. They're really letting it rip. And I think if they're in his ear and they're telling him the way I want you to play, push it, push it, push it. I think we can see a different version of this guy and the chances he's willing to take. So this is how my arguments stack up. They still got players, man. And, okay, Keenan Allen's older. Maybe Keenan Allen gets hurt.

They drafted a receiver in the first round. And they drafted a receiver in the first round that has real juice. It wasn't like Keenan Allen was bad. It was just that he was unhealthy. When he played, he's still good. Yeah, he's just not on the field. And that, again, if you're okay, if we're going to get a ton of two high coverages and see a ton of cover two and cloud coverages, we're going to have a lot of space within the defense. If we're going to have to play it underneath, do we have guys that can create explosives with the ball in their hands?

It's exactly the player that Quinn Johnson is. Exactly. And that's how they see him. They don't see him as a big body outside the numbers player. That would be a miscast of him. Who is your comparison for him? Brandon Ayuk. Brandon Ayuk.

Yeah. A bigger Iyook. So that to me, again, there's just enough stuff lining up where I think, okay, I can just see it happening. Yeah, I totally get it. My first note on them is like if for once they're ever healthy, it's an easy top six unit. But I go, I'm just a glass half empty kind of like just, I've been burned by them. And maybe it's the Lombardi stink or whatever. I think the big thing I have is the lack of depth, which is just, I mean, it's so hard to have depth anywhere.

And I think that's just the chargers in general. But it's like, come on, one time they got to get lucky with this. I think the run game, and I love Austin Echler. And I believe he played every game last year. If I, off the top of my head, if I remember. But I'm just not optimistic he can stay healthy as he's getting older and he's a little smaller. And they got nothing else. They got nothing else.

That is what's burned into my brain is that. And it's, they fall off a cliff when he's not in the field. They were the seventh best rushing offense by success rate when he's on the field. They dropped the 20th when he's off the field. It just boom, just that. Just those stats right there. And the backups, I know who they are. It's not like they drafted some guy in the middle of rounds.

I'm like, oh, that's interesting. It's, I've seen this show before. I've seen Isaiah Spiller. I've seen Joshua Kelly and everything. Joshua Kelly's fine, but it's not, he's not Austin Eck or he's not even close to that realm to that realm. So I think that's where my negatives, my glass half empty with this is. And the other thing is, you know, I like Kellemore. You like Kellemmore.

We like Kellemmore. We like him. He runs an offense that I'm very familiar with, very, very, very, very familiar with. the thing is some of those blemishes that he has with those offenses is some things that Lombardi did have as well. And the fact some stativeness as far as the routes, not the motions or anything like that, but as far as stop routes. And just some things I can get clamped down on. That is just one thing that's like, oh, that's a little different. Kellen Moore is wildly more creative.

He is willing to change up looks way more than Joe Lombardi was. Joel Lombardi would just run the same play out of the same looks week after week. It's like, oh, first and 10 drive starter, here it comes. And then to get two yards. Now it's second and eight. They do it again. It's third and eight. Now it's third and long for Justin Herbert.

Okay, great. We're throwing to DeAndre Carter on third and long. So totally understand your argument. I can easily see this team being top ten, even higher than top ten. It's just that I have some glass half empty as far the depth. And I might just have to see it for a sustained period. And I think that's really why I kept them out of my top top. You don't have to tell me.

It seems like I can't believe I'm doing it again. It's that, Oh, shit, here we go again. I just, that's how I feel right now. And that's, I just can't do it. I was, I'm actually glad you did, though, because I wanted to talk about them and, and just acknowledge that they could go gangbusters this year. Don't, don't give you wrong.

But it's just funny that I was, I was curious if you've been burned enough. But nope, no, thank you, sir. I have another. All right. Who's your number seven? We got, because we got to start getting through these. This is just so exciting. All right, 10, nine, eight.

My number seven is the Ravens. And that is, that is the Ravens in my top. Wow. actually was that's surprising. I thought you were going to be raising the roof with Todd Munkin there. I am so excited about them and I cannot wait to watch them, but there's just too much uncertainty. Yeah. That's my main thing.

I've never seen it before. I have no idea what it's going to look like. And it's just hard for me to say new play caller, new offensive structure, new just complete philosophy. Top 10 offense. Sometimes it just takes a second. If they finished 11th and then they were third last year or next year, fine. But I just think when you're changing so much, it's just hard for me to get behind it. But I'm curious what your argument is.

So when Lamar was healthy, even with a Greg Roman offense, they were top 10. They were ninth in success rate overall, fourth in DVOA, ninth in passing and first and rushing when Lamar was healthy in playing. I think it was, I think the stats I looked up was when Lamar started and finished the game. So however many weeks that was, I think it was 11. And I think with that, with the receiver depth they've added, I know everyone's going, Gaga going like OBJ and Zayflowers and Rashad Bateman on the field. They're all, Rashop Bateman's not even on the field right now.

And OBJ, I don't know this, is that a history of injuries. And Zayflowers is smaller. But at least they have depth there. It's not one guy gets hurt. And then all of a sudden they're playing out, Drought and out Willie Sneed for 40 snaps,

DeMarcus Robinson or 40-year-old Deshawn Jackson playing important games. So that. I know. You played like six, like so many weeks for him. It was unbelievable. I still to this day, I've said this before.

on the show is that when Deshawn Jackson caught a ball in the first week he was with the Ravens, I thought it was a different Deshawn Jackson. I was like, who is? I didn't know there was another one of these guys, but there was that Deshaun Jackson. But then they had this guy, Mark Andrews, who is easily a top three tight end as far as a pass catcher, literally one of the most efficient pass catchers in the league, receiver or tight end. 11th and successful routes per run, uh, successful receptions per route run. I'm sorry. Just behind Jamar Chase, he had the same explosive reception per route ran as AJ Brown, Devante Adams last year. seventh in the league. He is a weapon. And so if he's your number two target, if OBJ can be

OBJ or at least near it, they have at least a lot more to the passing game. Todd Monkin's balance as far as being more pushing it down the field, throwing the ball, I think will match Lamar, as well as the run game being a little more pro style. But Monkin has some college influence. And how he would run Stetson Bennett, Georgia makes me very optimistic on how he'll use Lamar, as well as modernizing the passing game. So that's what I'm betting on. I'm betting on that These two can make magic if the things go right. The offensive line has a please stay healthy once kind of thing for him. Please, Ronnie Stanley, please come out there.

But Linderbom is a weapon at center. I hope J.K. Dobbins, like, plays. You know, they're going through some contract stuff right now. He's on PUP. So I just think this offense can be fun, varied, explosive, and I'm betting on the upside here. Even if I don't have them in my top five, I think it's going to be a good unit. I was talking about this with somebody today.

it's easy to construe this situation in Baltimore as, all right, we needed to find a different ceiling offensively. And we needed to make a change in order to try to find that ceiling, especially after you pay the quarterback. We have to find a different level to this thing in order for us to get where we want to go. Maybe there isn't a different level to it. Maybe if you take the governor off of him as a passer and you really let him be the focal point of a more traditional passing offense,

the returns just aren't going to be there. I think they could be, but I don't know because we've never seen it before. And that's the optimistic view for sure, but there's a chance that putting more on his plate isn't necessarily the best way to get the most out of Lamar Jackson as a passer. So, and again, I think it is, and I'm excited to watch it, but there's enough uncertainty here where I just can't do it.

And also, we're one O'Dell Becker him injury away from Devin DuVernay again. You know, I understand that there's so much deeper and so much better a receiver, but it's not like those guys have stayed healthy in the past. It's not like Lamar has been staying healthy. Lamar's missed games every year. So there's just, again, the best version of this team is like third and offensive DVOA and they win the Super Bowl.

But I think that there's a lot of talk yourself into there. The variance is very real with that team. And that's why I just didn't have them on there. And I'm not even fighting you on any of that. Because I went through the same thing. Even it's like, okay, Monkin's great as an idea. But even those Monkin offenses with the Bucks, it wasn't like they rated highly. They were super explosive and exciting, but it wasn't like, you know, there was still missing some stuff.

You know, so I think it's, yeah, I know it might be a requiem for Greg Roman this season, which would be hilarious. But I think that the modernization, I'm just, I just want to see it. I'm betting the optimist view. But I'm totally with you. I can see it still being like an average offense because, like you said, some of the limitations that might happen. at number seven for me I have the Atlanta Falcons nice they're a little higher for me

all right you have them higher so let's just save the Falcons discussion for a little bit higher who do you have at six six I have the Jacks I have the Jacks higher okay let's talk about the Jacks sweet love to I'd love to Trevor Trevor Lawrence y'all I uh no I this is really a bet on the Jaguars higher than this which is that's how good I feel about the Jaguars I thought I was pretty high on them too actually so this is that's good

At first I thought you were going to say they're off your list. I was going to be a little scared. But no, Jags, it's a bet on Trevor Lawrence. And it's a really, really, of all things, it's a bet on Calvin Ridley. Like, what I think he's going to do to that offense. I think an offense built of the parts of Christian Kirk and Zay Flowers and Marvin Jones being. Zay Jones. You've messed up Zay Flowers and Zay Jones twice on this show, calling them each other.

Let's go. You're back, baby. You're in mid-season form. I know. It's not even butchering a name. Just like just totally swapping it, my head cannon. I think the fact that Doug Peterson was able to make a top six passing offense out of that is an Evan Ingram. That's why I have them higher.

Yeah. No, I get it. I get it. It's just the offense line always scares me. And then also it's, but it's, but I can say that about any team, really. But it's, I don't know. I felt this was a good spot for them because, but I love it because I think people don't realize how fucking good Calvin Ridley. he is he's a legit

number one receiver legit top 10 receiver if he's like what I remember him as and apparently other than some drops he had a good practice the other day he looks like that right now yeah and beyond the hype and the reports talking to people

there he's been legit he has been legit so some of the numbers Marvin Jones ran 580 routes so I have them fourth so we might as well was talking about this Marvin Jones ran 580 So we just for them.

Oh, no, no, okay. My bad. I had five. Yeah. Marvin Jones ran 580 routes for them. Okay. Last season, there were 54 receivers in the NFL who got at least 75 targets. Marvin Jones finished 50th in yards per target.

And he ran 600 routes for this team. So now you're dropping Calvin Ridley into that with an offense that was top 10 in every efficiency metric, especially over the second half of the season. And that's not the only changing variable. If that was it, Then I maybe would be pumping the brakes a little bit because I don't want to overstate that. He hasn't played football in two years. The quarterback got so much better over the second half of the year.

And he is still, in my opinion, not as good as he is going to be. He's going to awesome, guys. I went back and watched like four games before going down there before talking to people. Because I always like to just get a sense of, you know, what do I want to know about, what I want to talk about? And I watched the Ravens game again. There were five or six throws, he, he and. made in the Ravens game that they're just holy shit plays that just so few guys can make and it's not just the physical talent he has such a feel for the position where a guy's hips will be

turned one way or somebody will make one false step how quickly he's getting rid of the ball and how decisively he is playing the position for a guy who i'll say is a year and a half into his career because of the way it's what the season went. Right. Is so impressive. Just the underlying feel he has for how to play quarterback in the league. There are a couple elements of his game and the offense in general that need to be cleaned up. He has to take care of the football.

The fumbles and just how loose he is with the ball sometimes cannot happen. Some of the turnovers. This team turned the ball over a lot last year. I think they had 29 turnovers, which is the third most in the NFL. I'm going to construe that as a reason you should feel better about that moving forward. The fact that they were so good offensively last year and they turned the ball over this much is a reason that there should be more optimism about them. The red zone turnover specifically. They had five red zone turnovers last year.

It's the third most in the NFL. They were not efficient in that area of the field. And one of the things talking to somebody there is like, where does he need to be better? It's like, we just don't make bad plays worse. That pick he threw one of the picks he threw in the Charger game. They had a man tell based on something they did before the snap, and the charges played cover two behind it. And he just threw it right to Asante Samuel. Just eat it.

Just eat it. Just don't compound things that went wrong on a play. And that just comes with experience. So you can fool him, and he's a little loose with the ball. Those are the downsides. Other than that, there aren't that many holes in his game. And he's getting better. So that combined with Calvin Ridley, and there has been some, they have been.

been some changes along the offensive line. I understand why you would be concerned about those. They drafted Anton Harrison in the first round. I think they feel pretty good about him. And I think Walker Little gives them insurance a tackle in a way that very few teams have. And I do believe that when Cam Robinson gets back from his suspension, there's a chance they bump Walker a little inside. And the offensive line is better than it was last year with Joanne Taylor.

That would make me feel a lot better as far as some of the weaknesses they have. That I think is on the table for them. I think it's a very good plan for him as an outsider. So that's, I have, those are all the reasons. I have them fourth. I mean, they were, they were a top six passing offense last year with all the stuff we're talking about. And now you're dropping Calvaryantly in there. And I do legit think the quarterback is going to be better.

We could get to the end of the season. And I think we could be talking about him the way we started talking about Joe Burrow last year, where he's just one of the guys unquestionably, where he has a seat at the table by the end of this year. I would not be surprised by that at all. When we did our quarterback draft show and I took him fifth, I think. And I like, that's, some people are like, oh, you're already high on him. He's only done it for one year. And it's like, well, yeah.

If you watch the second half of his year, his second year of his career and not, like, it's not like, you know, he has some nice pieces. But it's not like he has all pros on the outside and everything. And what he's doing, what him and Doug Peterson did was just magic. I mean, him, Doug Peterson has a play designer and play caller. whole offensive staff and how Trevor operated in it. It's he can do it all. He can make every throw. He avoids sacks.

He's smart as all get out. He can handle checks. He can throw quick game. He can throw it down the field. Intermediate everything. He's great. He's a good runner. Like,

I think he's kind of, he's kind of underrated as a runner. He's a good athlete. Just an athlete in general. How twitchy he is for a guy that big and how it helps him play the position is crazy. I, there have been times where you've talked about him and I've kind of rolled my eyes a little bit. But going back and studying.

some of those games. He was better than I even remember him being. And he was already pretty good. And just the different things they can do, I don't want to dig too far into it. So a lot of the damage they did last year is by design, you're throwing the ball into those three-man concepts and you're kind of relying on the structure of plays to make things happen. Calvin Ridley can just win by himself. So now you have a guy on the backside of plays that you feel comfortable putting in one-on-one situations consistently that you can win in. So that element of it, there. There are just so many different things stacking up where that's why I had them number four.

I just feel so good about so many different factors that could just fall into place for them this year. No, they had to work over the middle so much because it was Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram where their main passing game weapons and Travis Ety and like stuff, you know, explosive plays and explosive designs. But also saying that, I want to talk about the run game because it wasn't that great last year. It was explosive, but not very consistent. Correct. Adding tank, adding tank Bigsby as a bruiser is going to help. And he was a third round pick. I'm so glad you brought that up because that'll help them in the red zone too.

They were bad inside the five running the football. Correct. And it's because they're a finesse team like they were last year. That's just how they had to be. You have every, even Ingram as your main tight ed. That's how you have to be. But how they made that work and then just drop these couple pieces in.

And I know that can be dangerous, but it's like, no, they already have a good baseline because they have a dude. I already consider them up there like near the table, maybe at the kids table. I'm just like looking at the big table. But I feel like there's going to be more of that national build. because it's people are kind of saying that that's already early. It's like, no, hop on board, guys. He's a dude and he's going to be a lot of fun.

I wish I was ready to push back with you on this and I'm just not at all. Speaking of that, who'd you have it? Awesome, five. Who did I have a number five? I had the Atlanta Falcons at number five. Speaking of stuff, I wish I could push back on you with and I'm not going to. Because I just, I want to say, oh, I had them as a top five offense. Because when you say, you know, even with the Jags, it's like, oh, I had them six.

It just doesn't have the same hit as saying a top five offense. But I mean, come on. Anyone that's listening to Shell knows why I'm high on them. I mean, they even waited DVA last year with Marcus Marriota starting most of the games and spraying the ball everywhere with a converted defensive player at Tideen, a converted defensive player as one of the running backs, a fifth round rookie, Cordell Patterson, who even Bill Belichick couldn't make a running back. And they're like, they were fifth, fifth in the whole year and overall success rate. No caveats there. No like first and second down or after week eight. fifth last year with that team.

The only team's better. They were better than the Lions, the Jags, who we've just gushed about, the 49ers, the Vikings, the Cowboys, and Seahawks. They weren't even great passing the ball. And this is where they were third and early down success rate, which is more stable. So, and I get ridders, the last month I've been a lot on Twitter, but I've been tweeting about other stuff than football, maybe a couple things I drop in there. But I've seen, I think I've seen every individual throw of Ritter's. has made in practice because everyone keeps tweeting it out and everyone has commentary on it. But if this dude is just even like the 18th best quarterback, this offense is, it's going to be

awesome guys. And I'm trying to like, I'm trying to hone it in here. And I might like, I might talk myself to more than fifth, but the receivers, the size they have, bringing in guys like Matt Collins and Scotty Miller as kind of role players that just fit perfectly and what they need. I mean, come on. You got Drake London. I think Kyle Pitts is going to be phenomenal this year.

And again, I'm going to laugh at fancy guys. everything they've said this last year. John Hussmith dropping in. You got the one coach that's gotten the most out of John Hussmith. I just tweeted a play the other day I came across because I was searching for something. The Titans under Arthur Smith putting John Hussmith as a running back and getting a toss play. They went O2 personnel. They're tossing the ball to John Hussmith and a run play.

We're going to have to make up personnel designations on this team this year. And this after being here for the last couple days, this is kind of, this is the like me kind of tie in a bow on how I feel about the Falcons. the Falcons last year had to be extreme out of necessity. This year they're going to be extreme as a choice. Awesome. And that, it gives me chills to think about it. That literally just gives me chills because this is something where we get to push the envelope now. We don't have to do all this weird stuff because we don't have a choice.

And think about the personnel groups that they could try it out this year. You got to the two tight ends. maybe, you know, the Corral Patterson in all these different ways that they can use him. Bejohn. Kyle Pitts is kind of a receiver. Bejohn's a receiver and a running back. Coral Patterson's a receiver and a running back.

Drake 1 is this big body guy that you can put in the slot. They are going to do some stuff that I don't think we've really ever seen any teams in the NFL do. And that's not in the modern game that I've covered. And I think that's going to be awesome. And sometimes this stuff sounds so good in theory. and then it never works out in practice because the wrong people are tasked with deploying these players and I just don't think Arthur Smith is the wrong person.

I think he's the right person. If anybody can get the most out of this group that spent a top four pick on a tight end, a top eight pick on a running back, $20 million on a guard, it's stuff you wouldn't advise teams to do. And I think fair, I'm sure people would say,

if other teams did this, you'd shit all over them. Probably. But I think that they can get the most out of these guys. And I've seen proof of it already. Like I've seen what he's done with lesser players in Atlanta and in Tennessee. And the fact, watching both of those offenses and, of course, they have the same, so a lot of similar DNA, but how he's adjusted to the personnel. This is the one guy that got the most out of Cordero Patterson. Bill Belichick, there's so many coaches that try to get Cordero Patterson into a real thing.

He did it. And that's not even talk about like Tyler Ager who like was great in the second half of year He was one of the most efficient running backs in the league last year And now he's their number two And he can catch and he can pass protect He's another guy that can play all three downs They have so many guys that can play every down in every situation

Their tells are going to be so I I'd be horrified to be the defensive quality control coach For a different team and going like all right So they got two running backs Three tight ends They're going to have to make up personnel designations for what they do this year. And I think it's,

there's purpose to it. It's not just creativity for creativity. It's sound. It's purpose. And I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves with this. I've heard some stuff about Bejohn over the last couple of days that's like kind of outlandish about what kind of player he is and just what they've gotten out of him from out of him so far.

They are extremely excited. Oh, I bet. I bet. So I started scouting for the 2020, draft. I'm watching the Texas quarterback, Quinn Ures. So I'm watching Texas again. There's Bejohn Robinson. And I end up just watching him again because it was against, I believe it was against Texas Tech maybe. No, Oklahoma State. And I watched that and I watched some Falcon stuff. And I'm like, okay. And Bejon, the vision is one of the best vision and tempo runners I've ever seen. I know that

sounds so arbitrary and like me just throwing out scouting terms. But it, no, seriously, how he paces himself, how he finds holes. He breaks on holes a half second before they develop, and you're already seeing that in college. That translates to the NFL, and he's a good athlete. That takes advantage of that. It's not a big plotter that can't get there. And so I watched some Falcons tape at the end of the year, I think it was the Cardinals game,

and there's some beautiful blocks that are happening, and you see these giant holes opening up, and they get like a five-yard game. It's like, oh, that's nice. Bejohn's taking that for 20. Bejohn's taking that to the house. It's so true. And when I was thinking about this, the first place my silly small brain goes is,

they finished third in Russian DVOA. Why don't you to spend the eighth overall pick on a running back? Seventh overall pick on a running back. Well, because those eight-yard gains now could be touched out. You have an explosive element to your offense. And wait until you see them use him in like A.J. Brown ways. Think about what the guys in this offense can do with the ball in their hands. Yeah.

And some of this underneath stuff. I think we're going to see the next iteration of this offense. And that's what I say. Last year, it was extreme by necessity. This year, it's extreme on purpose. The line I had was they took the 2019 Titans, which was like a Hummer, you know, like a nice hummer, and they put some rims on it. They put some, you know, some 22-inch rims out, 24-inch rims.

They got a sound system in there. That's basically what they did with this offense. And Ritter is obviously the huge question, right? Yep. The stuff they're asking him to do mentally. and what that role he can play within the offense, I think is we're understating how important it's going to be. How smart he is and the options they have within their offense

and his responsibility and getting them into the right stuff, all of that, I think is I didn't think enough about it when I was considering why they wanted to go with this guy. And I think it is going to be a big reason why we see them home at times this year because they're always in the right plays. And he's doing stuff between the ear. that maybe we're not going to see or understand enough. That's why I was high on him.

He showed in college. He showed it last year in preseason. The Lions game I remember specifically as one, that they fooled the offensive line on the Blitz. They came out the next series and he fixed it for the offensive line as a rookie in preseason. That's something. And of course, I'm high on this guy. He was the guy I like the most in that draft class, the 2022 draft class.

I think with this offense, because they are run heavy by choice and play action heavy by choice and they don't do a lot of straight dropbacks. What's the down that you usually do straight dropbacks? It's third down. They're going to be manageable situations because they're a run first team. So a lot more third and mediums. They're more manageable. And if you're a blitz heavy team, they got a dude that can handle protections.

And I don't know how much people realize that what a weapon that is. Like as far as how much load it takes off everybody else. Now the center can go, okay, we're going to be fine. We're going to be fine. He's going to get us in the right spot. The ball's going to go to the right spot. It might not always happen. But there might be gashes on these third downs because they can protect.

against blitz. I think they're the most blitzed against team last year. So it's a lot of condensed formations, right? I mean, it makes sense. And you're going to run the ball. We got to bring five. I think they'll be less condensed this year. And I think they'll throw the ball more than they did last year. We are going to see the next iteration of this. And I'm very excited about it. Last thing to mention. And their offensive line is sick. So that was the last thing I was going to mention. Their offensive line is one of the best offense lines in the league. I think Matthew Bergeron is going to start for them from day one. And they have plus players pretty much every single position.

I think Drew Dalman at Sender is underrated. They have arguably the best guard in the league. They have two solid tackles who are better than the Seahawks tackles. This is a very, very good group. And the Ritter thing, you go back and watch, I'm sure people are going to be like, God, he didn't play very well last year. Pitts was hurt. And every time he made a mistake, he didn't make it again.

He was very, very good at kind of correcting things that would go wrong. And that's what they've seen from him. It's always been progression, his entire football career. And I think that we're going to see it again. And I think you're right. If he can be the 18th best quarterback and just be pointed in the right direction consistently, they have a chance to be really good, really fun, and weird as shit. I love weird. That's like my favorite thing.

Love it, love it, love it. I'm so excited to watch this offense. I know everyone knows that's listed in the show, but nothing has changed since July and August I've started. Where do you have the Eagles? You have them at four? I have them at four. Okay. So we'll talk about the Eagles in a second.

At five, I have the Eagles at six. Okay. at five, I have the Detroit Lions. Okay. I completely understand why you're hesitant about putting them on here for all the reasons that you said. If I thought the Lions were going to be the same offensively as they were last year, I'd be worried. Because I was like, oh, man, they didn't really add any, like, high level receiving pieces. I know they have San Laporteur now and Jemir Gibbs, but again, rookies and how much you can you project from rookies.

from rookies. It was how sound the offense was. Everything they did, they had answers to it. Everything they did, it's like, okay, Jared, here's what you're looking, and if that's taken away, here's your secondary answer. This is my favorite stat when I was looking at the Lions from last year. The Lions were number one in the league, an EPA per drop back off play action last season. And when I say that, the first place my mind goes is teams that are usually high in play action efficiency, it's because they're creating explosives off play action.

It's downfield play action hits that kind of drive that efficiency forward. The lion's play action efficiency was 0.33 EPA per dropback last season. It was the exact same play action efficiency they had on targets within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Okay. Okay. 0.33 EPA per dropback. That is so... That is so much better than other teams in that range of the field because, again, most

teams need the downfield shots to drive up their play action efficiency. The lions were just as efficient within five yards of the line of skirmish as they were on play action shots overall. It's because they gave Jared Goff so many great secondary answers within their play action concepts. if this isn't here, you get your guy in the flat. If this isn't here, you got your guy in the flat. And them kind of giving him answers to every single thing a defense is going to throw at them,

it gives me so much faith that whatever this next iteration of the offense looks like, they will find answers to whatever anything defenses are going to throw at them. So me doing this, this is solely a bet on Ben Johns. That's what this is. Because of how sound and just... iron-clad their offense looked last year with Jared Gough. This is my bet that they're going to continue that. There are so many other areas where you think,

I might take a step back. They turn the ball over 15 times last year. That's it. That number is going to go up. Areas like that. If you take away some of those answers for Jared Gough, he's not going to be able to create something outside of the structural place.

So there are plenty of reasons why you'd be worried. And the Amman-Ross St. Brown point, I think, is a very important one. Because one of my thoughts is, who's your got to have it guy, right? Like, who's your got to have it guy? You got Marvin Jones and who's your got to have it outside the numbers guy? But I think we're conceiving of this the wrong way. Just because he's a non-traditional number one option within a passing game doesn't mean he's not a got-a-have-it guy.

He was first in the NFL last year on first downs per route run on third down. Number one. He was number one in the league. Every stat, every underlying stat he's like one, two, or three, and everything. It's crazy. Even if we don't think of him that way because he doesn't look like a number one receiver, when they needed him in those high leverage moments, he was as good or better than anybody. So all of that has just kind of stacked up to where I'm like, I just, I think I'm really excited about them.

And I wouldn't have felt that way if I hadn't gone back and watched. And then the offensive line, again, we think it's going to be good this year, healthier this year potentially. So I'm in, man. I'm just in because I am, I'm willing to make the bet on Ben Johnson and on that, on that, offensive staff and the offensive construction. So I actually, he came on the show recently, Sam Schwarstein, and I actually, him and I were talking just separately, just on the side one day, like about a month ago. And we started talking about how because of too high offenses that, or two high defenses,

I'm sorry, is that run games are diversifying again. And the lines more than any other team are probably the best at that of every week. They run counter this week. They run duo. They run zone. They run pinpole. They run. And they varied it up week in, week out.

You can do that when you have a good offensive line. And yeah, last year, you know, I think underlying stats are more kind of middle of the road. Actually kind of surprised me because I, shoot, after the first couple of weeks, I'm watching this offensive line, this run game. Like, this is awesome. And I think that they're going to have that step up because they can do it already. They have a diverse run game. They have a great play action game. I'm glad he brought that up.

And Amar-R-S-St. Brown is that third-down monster because Ben Johnson's so good at the designs. Oh, we need four yards. It doesn't have to run 20. He can run six and make it work. So my notes for the Lions are overwhelmingly positive. It was just I had some hangups on some things because I looked at the rest of the receiving room and that just it kind of spooked me a little bit. And I like Sam Laporta, but again, it's a rookie tight end that you're saying is probably

going to be your number two weapon. And if, oh, no, we got Jeff Jemir Gibbs. It's like, yeah, Jamir Gibbs to me is a luxury player, meaning that I like him, but he's a super role player. He's a sub 200 pound back. Those guys only can take so many touches. He's terrible in pass protection. I'll just straight up say it.

That was his hangup for me watching Alabama. Guys can get better. But, you know, he's not the size for that. So early on, I think he might be, he might tip off some defenses. Oh, Gibbs is on the field. He's getting the ball. Like that's why that happens with three down backs and why you want that. Having said that, I really like David Montgomery.

And I like that, I like that pairing of these two. So I kind of go back and forth. I talk about both sides of my mouth. I am still optimistic about this offense. I truly had them 10B, 11th. And everything I could see them being a top five offense. They were legitimately a top five offense for a. large stretch of last year.

So they've already had proof of that. Ben Johnson, I love what you brought with soundness and everything like that because it's so true. true. And that's another thing we already talked about, but Arthur Smith, too, is that they'll beat up bad teams. They'll beat up unsound teams. And they'll expose those teams.

Every team that beats itself on defense, they will just hammer. They'll take advantage of. That's what's so fun about these offenses is that they take advantage of the places that they can take advantage of. So I understand your argument for them. I kind of took them off of necessity because I wanted. Talk about some other teams, kind of. But I'm like everybody.

I'm excited to watch the Lions this year, especially excited to watch your offense. I can't really argue with a lot because a lot of my notes were positive. I just had a couple hangups that didn't let me push them up. The last note that I had. So they had 84 play action dropbacks with six guys in protection last year, which is the second most in the NFL. And that means you're getting guys out. That means you're getting four receivers out on these play action concepts,

which some teams run heavier play action concepts than that. They average 0.61 EPA per dropback on those plays. that's 15 times the league average on play action concepts with six pass protectors. It's twice as good as Lamar Jackson during his MVP year. It's three times as good as, it's three times as efficient as the Chiefs were throwing the ball last season. And that again speaks to those are the options they give him in the play action game. And that type of soundness and that type of problem solving is why I'm betting on them even with some of the stuff in flux. All right.

You had the Eagles at four? I had the Eagles at four. and I had him kind of wavered up and down with them. Started at three. I think I dropped at one point down to like eighth on this list. I had them at sixth. Okay. So,

all right. So, yeah, this kind of tier was kind of all the same to me. Like I had Eagles, Falcons, Jags as kind of a tier. And then I have a top three.

So with the Eagles, really my biggest hang up is kind of the attrition of winning, is losing their offensive coordinator. And I know Nick Siriani has an offensive background, but I've seen them as a play car with the Eagles. And it wasn't awesome. So they have a new O.C. And Brian Johnson, who's only called plays once before.

And I was in college at University of Houston. And it wasn't a great offense that year. He's been under Dan Mullen. He was, I believe, Dak Prescott's quarterback coach at Mississippi State. So he has an interesting background of using quarterbacks with their legs. And I'm sure a lot of that QB run game would have some of his input. But they have a first time QB coach. I'm sorry.

I didn't write down your name. Really apologize. But we know this. This is a top three offense last year. They faded a little down stretch as Jalen Hertz got hurt, but they have a lot. They have the weapons. They have the offense the line. They have Jeff Stoutland still.

They have A.J. Brown still. They have DeVant Smith still. They have Dallas Goddard, who is legitimately a top four tight end. And literally, like I already brought up the Mark Andrews stat. Dallas Goddard is like even better as one of the most efficient pass catchers, tight end or receiver in the entire league. He truly is. And that should be treated as one. I think a lot of people treat him as kind of like, oh, he's a nice piece.

It's like, no, he's a dude. Watch that guy catch corner routes, like especially in the Super Bowl, go up and snatch those balls and catch those screens and take them from first down. So with the offensive line, you know, Kelsey and Lane Johnson get a little older that has me a little, little scary or a little scared. But having said that, they're still there. They're still playing. They're figuring out the right guard situation. But it's there's just not enough for me to ding him. I'm going to be like, yeah, they got a new offensive coordinator.

They're outside the top 10. It's more just like, no, I'm betting on jail and hurts. I'm betting on these weapons and just keep a sense. And I think Brian Johnson, well, they might have some blemishes early in the year. That happens a lot with first time play callers. But I think they figured out just because they have so much talent. I'm worried about the talent being on the field the whole season. They got 17 games out of AJ Brown and Devante Smith last year.

A.J. Brown has had his issues with injuries. Has he ever played a full season before? Last year was the first year he played a full season. And so his knee has been a problem for him in the past. And so if they lose one of those guys for an extent of your time, I know Gales gotter missed five games last year. But let's say AJ Brown gets hurt for seven games. What does this offense look like?

Because they are talent-based in a lot of ways in how they play. That's not a knock. That's just what they are. They're static. They're 11 personnel. They are, we are better than you. And if you lose the players who make you better than everyone else, what does that mean? So that was one of the reasons.

Their offensive line stayed mostly healthy last year. Lane Johnson missed some games, but Lane Johnson misses games. So the fact that their offensive line combined missed nine starts last year, that's where I start to get concerned because they do not have a lot of depth on this team. They just don't. They don't. And because they have so many stars, it's difficult to maintain that depth. So the fact that they were pretty healthy last year and if they have some injury concerns,

and the last thing I had, it's why I had them down a little tiny bit lower, they were 17th in passing success rate in the second half of last season. Yeah. I think as defense started to adjust, to them a little bit, they weren't rolling in the same way throwing the football. And I know that J-1 played really well down the back half and in the playoffs in the Super Bowl specifically. I have a lot of faith in this team.

But those are the things that push them from being two, three on my list down to six. That's it. That's it. No, I look at them as a very good, maybe not elite, but I could see more variance than maybe I originally thought as I broke it down. I love your depth part or death piece. I love about the health because that's what I felt like when you watch. them last year, it's like, oh, these guys are played every game.

But I think having said all that, it's like I could see them dropping out as they have some growing pains. But, you know, again, they might say healthy and they might stay up into this high, high level. But the success rate stuff is very important. It is because of how they're built. They're vertically down to field offense. And what if you don't, what if you has that Washington commanders game when you remember the one they lost and also they weren't catching those? What if that happened six times? Go back to the first Washington game.

Those first couple of 50-50 balls he threw up? When DeVos Smith just, ah! What if those don't get completed? You live a high variance life when that's your passing game. And if we're going to knock that about the dolphins, we have to bring it up with other teams that live them. But here's the thing about the Eagles. They have the run game to maintain the stability for them playing and play out. And that's why it's a little bit better.

This is my other hang-up. And I was going to save just for the preview show, but whatever, is also you pay Jalen Hertz now. Are you going to use them as a runner as he did before? Like, are you going to crank that dial as much as you? did in the past? I think the answer is yes, because they have it. Yes, I don't. All right, we have the same top three teams.

Who did you have at three? I had the Bengals at three. Okay, I had the Bills at three. Okay. Okay. So how do you want to start? Let's talk about the Bengals. Bengals is every, well, first off, let's bring up Joe Burroughs

CAF issue. So that's all contingent on this. But having said all that is the growth that they showed as an offense. That is, that's it. I'm a big believer in this offensive staff. I'm a big believer in what this team did because of, those changes they made last year, anyone that doesn't know what we're talking about,

is shifting to more of a gun, heavy run game to kind of tie in their past game as well. It's a very static offense. They don't change up personnel. They don't motion. They line up in a couple formations, and they have at it. This is,

we are better than you, over and over and over, and they can do it. And this is the best receiving group. I think top the bottom. I mean, Tower Boyd is a great number three. Even some of their death guys are great,

on top of T. Higgins and Jermar Chase. They, or if Smith is their tight end. Everybody likes the idea of Irv Smith, but I think this offense is. Some of the Irv Smith comments recently. What? I've been like, really? I know.

What is he done that everyone's so high out of? He was not good guy. Even when he was healthy. No. And now this offense doesn't, what I was going to say is that now he's in a low usage offense for that role for the tight end because you're the fifth pass option on that passing attack, which I think will be okay, I guess. I just will say that those changes in the run game.

I know they signed Orlando Brown. I actually think the offense line is like solid now. Remember we're talking about them run a duo and they were just awesome running it down the down team's throats from the gun. I think the Orlando Brown signing at first I was like, wow, really in that past heavy offense? Really? Okay, I don't really like that fit. But then I started thinking about it.

And I think Orlando Brown with their run game and being more at you, that's where the boost is going to be. 100%. Now they're a Gaviski running team. He fits perfectly into their new identity in the run game. Perfect. It's one of those people made fun of, like, oh, how was he going to pass protect for Joe Burrell? It's like, no, it's not that. It's all the other stuff that he's going to help out with.

I think the signing makes perfect sense living in this new world. And now they have contingencies elsewhere. If Lyle Collins gets back and he's healthy and he's your swing tackle because you have Jonah Williams, you have depth now in a way that you didn't before. And even I wanted to look this up because if we're going to knock the, we're going to say, well, one of the Eagles receivers gets hurt, what are they going to look like? When Jamar Chase was not on the field last season, the Bengals, The Eagles were fourth in EPA per play on offense.

Great point. Yes. That's surprising, but it's pretty fucking impressive. Because T. Higgins can be a true number one receiver. And I love Devante Smith, and maybe he could be two without AJ Brown, but I haven't seen it with the Eagles, and I have seen it with the Bengals. And you know why? This is straight up, I can rely more on the quarterback for the Bengals than I think I

can for the Eagles right now. I agree with that. That's it. The Ben, Joe Burrow has done it. We have seen it multiple years. So, yeah, that's why I have Cincinnati. And I think, you know, maybe the Haydenhurst, or Smith moves a slight downgrade and they have nothing behind mixing it running back.

It's not a featured role. That's why the tight end thing is like, all right, it's a wash to me. And neither was running back. Because they had no explosive players from the running back last year. None. It was all efficiency. And you can. Four your game.

And a lot of guys can do that. No shots of Joe Mixing, but a lot of guys can do that. So this is a bet on the flexibility. Joe Burrow and just the aliens they have on the outside. So that's easy for me. I've said this before, but it's, I'm so, it's so much fun to like appreciate this, this Bengals team after the first year they ran to the Super Bowl. Like, ah, it's a little luck based.

And now watching them just be so sound and just have this variance or variety to their offense, which is physical. And I think that's a really cool balance along with having Joe Burrow, one of the smartest quarterbacks we've seen in some time, throws every ball perfectly on time and accurate. So it's a very fun mishmash of kind of thoughts with this. I don't want to just hand wave this, though. Those calf injuries can linger.

Linger. If he's not healthy, then is that going to throw a wrench into this whole thing? And so I'm choosing to believe he's going to be because I don't want to face a world where this Bengals offense is diminished, but maybe he's not. So that, I think, is at least worth acknowledging. Absolutely. I have to bring it up. And, yeah.

And also, he's gotten better of not taking the big hits. So maybe that helps out a little bit. it. But play extension is still part of it. What makes him great. So if he can't be as... And he was a better scrambler last year. Yes.

Better scrambler. He's a play stender. Even if he's not a runner, his pocket navigation and that subtle mobility is hugely important to his game. If he can't move like that, what does it do to him? So I think that's worth at least acknowledging. But it sounds like he's going to be ready to go for week one.

Yep. I had the bangles at three or the bills at three. I easily could have had him at two. It is so hilarious that we're all talking about the sky is falling for the bills and we're concerned about them and everything else. The bills were second in every single offense to the efficiency metric last year, every single one. And even if you chop it up by like weeks and everything, it's like, no, they're still up there. And downs.

Because that's what I did. They were the most efficient third down team in the league last year. They had the highest third down conversion rate. And it's a lot of third and longs. So my mind is, all right, let me play with some of these drop downs. I wonder how inefficient they were on first and second down. And if they leaned on that third down volatility to pump up those. numbers. Nope. They were second in the league

in a success rate on first and second down last year. So even if we're worried about this, I've said this a couple times recently, and I'm starting to believe it. Maybe the bills are better. I don't want to spoil my takes, but some of our preview shows, I'm going to be very, very high on the bills

when we do those shows, just letting you know. So they go get, oh, Cyrus Torrance is getting first team reps at Red Guard now. He's a 330 pound guard they drafted in the second round. A mauler. Connor McGovern, who they decided to play at left guard. He's not a great player, but he's definitely going to be better than what Roger Saffold gave them last year. Pro Bowl or Roger Saffel.

So the improvements to the interior of the offensive line, I think that the physicality that they could theoretically get from that group and the run game benefits, it could provide them. Combined with having, even if I'm still not convinced about the Dalton Kincaid thing. and how it's all going to shake out. And again, sometimes you can't just say 12 personnel and snap your fingers and be more efficient offensively. It makes it work, right? 12 personnel and play action, right? And you have a good offense. And I know that bills are smarter than that, but it seems that that's kind of what we're doing.

But I do think that even him as a receiver, purely as a receiver, gives him another option they didn't have last year. And Josh Allen's still really good. Josh Allen was hurt last season for a good chunk of the year. year, this team turned the ball over more than any other team in the league except the Colts last year, and they won 13 games. They went 13, that's the, I keep on to remind people, they won 13 games. It's not like some 10, 7 and 17 last year. They had seven red zone turnovers last year, and they were still one of the best offensive

league. They led the league in red zone turnovers. And again, so they were dead last and 12 personnel usage last year. So they're, same kind of deal we're talking about with the Browns and kind of reconciling that gap between who you were and who you want to be. can you do it? And I do think that they can, but it's a projection. We have not seen them be that sort of team.

But I'm just betting on the fact that last year they were one of the best offices in the league and we're losing our minds about all the things they need to change. I know. And like their offensive line was just parting like the Red Sea just like over and over. It was bad, especially the second half the year. Like Spencer Brown was, yeah. And Spencer Brown's still there. But hopefully the guard play and interior play will be better.

And that's where the, that's where. That's where pressure affects the quarterback more. If you have interior pressure, that convolutes everything. Because he bails. He bails right away. I was catching this a little bit midway through the year where they just couldn't play on time offensively because of how quickly he was bailing from the pocket. And I'm just like, this is not sustainable.

This isn't working. And so if they can have just a little bit more reliable offense because he's comfortable in the pocket, I just think that they could be even better this year than they were last year they were the second best offense in the lake. I was going to say, even with the blemishes where Josh Allen kind of loses his mind and just starts shooting all around them, I was going to throw you a little Archer reference there with a little suppressing fire.

But I think this year, too, just personality-wise, I think he's a man on a mission. Like, I agree. By all accounts, I think he's like, no, screw this. We're doing it this year. Enough, like enough of the hype. We're doing it this year. But, I mean, just like even outside the Dalton Kincaid thing, because I totally agree with you. I think people are getting a little out of hand with.

it's and talked to Stephen Ruiz about this is that it's how defenses treat you if you're yeah we can be in 12 but if a defense is treat you like you're in four wide like it doesn't what's the advantage you better you got to get them out of those looks well you better grind them down if they do that to you you better grind them down and if they can if dalton kincade is grinding nickels to a pulp and they're using the 12 personnel in interesting ways and they're creating blocking angles because of it that's fine they've never shown that they've the ability to do that Because guess what? They've used 12 personnel and 4% of their plays.

It was dead last in the league. So they better find some ways to create matchups in the run game if they're going to play that way. And that's where exactly. I think they were trying to throw it in. They did the jumbo personnel's last year and all that. And I think, too, is they have another tight end outside of Dawson Knox and Duncan Kade and Quentin Morris, who was like their Y. So it's just like what the chiefs are doing where they're changing up their tight end looks. Every 12 is different.

Every 11's different. All that. And Reggie Gilliam, who was like a fullback, the fact. no tight end too, is like they can change up the looks. They're becoming more multiple, which is usually a no-no word that you, that's usually a bad offense coordinator of their first press conference. But they truly are. They're becoming multiple because they push the limit of what they could do before.

They've earned their first lesson of breaking up the RPO's and they just keep adding layers to this offense. And I think it's going to be freaking awesome. I'm excited. And of course, with the running backs that they have with Damien Harris. I know James Cook is more of a pass catcher, scat backy type. They're saying he's three down. I don't see it.

But whatever. but Damien Harris down your throat. Even Latavius Murray. I know he's older, but he's a good pass protection back. They can run it down your throat. So having that change up, which is Powerball, which is funny as a change up, the fact that they have, it's good. And that's why I'm very, very optimistic about this team this year. I don't have a lot to say about the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are number one until they give us a reason for them not to be. Correct. Correct. My only note I have is, I mean, I feel like I don't need to explain it. They traded away, in my opinion, the second most impactful receiver in the NFL. I think that Justin Jefferson is the best, and I also think he changes defenses the most. But I think Tyree Kill is probably second in terms of what the reaction he creates in the defenses that you play. And they were the best offense in the league.

Easily. There's nothing else to really say. And what they've done over the last year, two years. years is they've sent you the message that as long as he's protected, nothing else matters. If we have Kelsey and we have the quarterback, as long as he's upright with Andy Reed, we're going to be better than you. And I think this guy has a chance to be like the best offensive line he's ever played with. Right.

Right. And that's pretty scary, I think. Donovan Smith, I know people are making Donovan Smith punchline jokes. He was bad last year. He clears the bar as a lot of. left tackle in the league for you to function offensively. Juan Taylor played well last year at right tackle, and their interior is arguably the best interior in football.

Right. And if Donvin Smith is your fifth best offensive lineman, that's it. That's pretty sweet. You're doing real good if he's your best offensive line. Yep. And I think also he's going to just be better because he's motivated. That's always his thing. I've talked about this before.

And now he's with my homes and Andy Reid. I'll motivate me if I'm playing with those guys and Travis Kelsey in this offensive line. And I think too is that he's going from an Aryan's leftwich offense to Andy Reed and Andy Heck who are in Mahomes who are amazing at mitigating offensive line woes. Like they're really good at it. It's a really good point. And just even just the run game got so good last year. It's so much better. They average overall.

They averaged nearly a point of EPA per drive last year. That was double the bills who were in second place. They average a point a drive in EPA. There's only been three teams since 2019. There was 2019 Ravens, 2020 Packers, and 222 chiefs. The league average over that time is negative. And they're averaging one point. It's insane what they're doing.

And on all these things is the run game. I keep an eye at Deneric Prince, by the way, from Tulsa. I liked him in the Shrine game and all that. But pass catchers, too. It's like, honestly, it's a grab bag of like my guys. They have Justin Ross and Amir Smith-Marset. But then MVS and Sky Moore and Cadarius, Tony, they're going to make this work. If no guy gets featured every week, they're going to change up.

It's like running backs with the Patriots. They're going to change which week, which guy gets featured. And they're going to make it work. I think even the tight end group is great outside of Kelsey too and how they use those guys. No gray is going to be like a de facto fullback at times, which I think is good. Yeah. There's nothing that makes me think like that they're going to drop at all. I think there's full full steam ahead.

I'm not doing this shit anymore. Until they show me a reason to not, they're going to be there. I'm tired of this. I've done it too many times. I've learned my lesson. And if they finish seventh and offensive DVOA this year, then I'll have been wrong. But they still made the top 10. So technically you're right.

You're still right. But I'm with you. That's all we got. Wow. Well, that's a hundred minute episode to come back to you. Check it in an hour and 40 minutes. You had a lot of takes that you had to get off. Guess what?

Oh my God. We're going to be back on Monday doing the defenses. It will be less than an hour. It'll be less. Doing the defenses next week. I hope I can narrow it to under 20 teams for my list for top 10. defenses. It was great to have you back. It was great to have this conversation. I was looking forward to this all week. I had a lot of fun. Hope you guys enjoyed it as well. Just a reminder,

tomorrow on Saturday, we will be releasing the second edition of, I don't know what we're calling it. Going camping. Is that what we called the first one, Beller? Going camping. We're doing the conversations I've had from the training camps that I visited. So last week was all of the LA teams. This week, we have our southeast swing. John Shipley from the Jaguar Report coming out of talking about The Jags, Josh Kendall, our Falcons writer at The Athletic, coming at Talk, Atlanta, and Joe Person, who covers the Panthers for us. Those three guys, conversations with all of them, going to be featured on that show tomorrow, so please go check that out, and please come back on Monday to listen to our Top Ten Defenses

show. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was The Athletic Football Show.