The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Prospects to Pros: CFP Championship recap, 2024 NFL Draft order curiosities, and more

Episode Date: January 10, 2024

The college football season wrapped with a couple of contenders for QB4 in the 2024 NFL Draft making their closing arguments. Where might Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and Washington's Michael Penix end up on draft day? Plus, what are our early thoughts on the NFL Draft order now that the first 18 spots are locked in? Nate Tice and Dane Brugler break it down on this episode of The Athletic Football Show's Prospects to Pros.Follow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceFollow Dane on Twitter: @dpbruglerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show's prospects to pros. Hello and welcome to prospects to pros. I'm your host, Nate Tice. We are going to be recapping the college football playoff final. Michigan beats Washington 3413. Plenty to go over. A ton of prospects. We got a draft order finalized, finally.

Enough mock drafts changing week by week where a team is selecting eight and then 20 and then bounce it back and forth and that changes everything. So everything's solidifying. We are getting it to January. We're getting a draft season. We're getting into playoffs. To help me go over the college football playoff and all that great stuff is the great Dane Bruegler.

How are you doing today, Dane? I'm good. I'm good. It's college football officially over now. It's kind of bittersweet, right? Yeah. But like you said, we, instead of it's if this team picks here or, you know, we have the first 18 picks of the draft order and that's always fun.

And, you know, it's going to be interesting with some of these. And we'll talk, we'll get into it a little bit later in the show. But how the dominoes might fall with some of these teams and who might take. a quarterback, who might not, who could be looking to trade up, a lot of different scenarios there. But yeah, first, I think we got to start with congratulations the Michigan. Felt like they controlled that game physically and figuratively from start to finish, right? Even when it was a one-score game. It just felt like they had control. And I think overall it was a pretty disappointing performance by Washington. And, you know, we include Michael Penix as part of

that conversation, you know, against Texas. Pennix had the best game of his career against a bad secondary and a very vanilla scheme. We certainly celebrated his performance on the podcast last week. He deserved that. But I also think that his performance put a little bit of, you know, some unfair expectations on him going into this game. Because we also mentioned how the situation against Michigan would be completely different than what he saw against Texas because of better personnel. And then just the way they mix up their pressures and their defense. and what they're going to throw at you.

So, I mean, I can't tell you the number of tweets I received this week telling me how Pennix is going to be a top 10 pick. And I think a lot of fans, they watch the two Oregon games and then the Texas game. And that was their exposure to Michael Panx, along with, you know, so highlights on Twitter. They understandably liked what they saw. But the body of work from this season, when you watch them on tape with Pennix, it just paints a different story. And, you know, you watch Arizona State tape. You watch the Washington State tape from the Apple Cup, the Utah tape, several others. And so against Texas, Pennix looked very comfortable as if he knew exactly what the defense is going to do.

And he knew what he had to do. Exactly. That plays a part in this. He knew exactly what he had to do to execute. But against Michigan, Pennix looked unsure of himself. He was feeling the rush before he even got the snap. and he's always had a bad habit of kind of predetermining what he was going to do with the football, especially true in this game.

Because again, he's feeling that pressure before the snap is even made. And he's thinking, okay, I'm going to, I need to go here with the ball. And doing that, he missed on a lot of open reads because of it. So, you know, a stat that I find particularly helpful when I project quarterbacks to the next level is what they do on money downs. And of the top six quarterbacks. in this class. So what, Caleb, Drake, May, Jaden Daniels, Bo Nix,

and then the two quarterbacks in the title game. Penix was by far sixth of the group in percentage of past attempts on third down that resulted in a first down. And the struggles to convert on third down were again an issue for him against Michigan. And I don't want to paint this as, it's all on Pennix because the offensive line

had some really bad moments. throughout the game. The defense was, I don't, feast their famine at times. I mean, some of those gap fits in the first quarter. But the first 20 plays was a little rough. Terrible. So bottom line, I think that from an evaluation perspective, this Michigan defense is the closest thing that Pennix has seen to an NFL defense

in his career. And it was a rough, rough time for him. And I think it showed several of the inconsistencies that are in his game. the reason why neither of us really view him as a first round pick. It doesn't mean he's not a good quarterback, good college quarterback, and someone that will have an NFL future. It's just we're talking about first round expectations, and neither of us really saw that with him.

Now, I'm not going to lie, watching him against Texas, it's like, okay, well, you know, maybe he could, because, you know, he did move around in the pocket. He did, you know, he did some nice things in that game that's okay, hey, this is progression, this is good. And then against Michigan, again, defense that is closer to what he's going to face week and week out in the NFL, it was a lot tougher.

So, you know, I thought the Michael Pennock's conversation when it comes to the draft came back down to earth after last night. It did. And I think what you keep saying is what's the most important part is that that was the most realistic coverage scheme that he'd faced in the NFL. And I thought there was times that he did have a nice clean pocket and there were times that he had to manage pressure. And I think that is very realistic to the.

I felt that you're not going to have a whatever he has. His pressure rate was so, so low this year. The offense line was great. They ran a lot of play action. And again, this was, I kind of figured, like, that this was going to be the plan of attack by Michigan was, you know, was that they would show a lot of blitzes and then adjust a lot of things post-snap, post-coverage, and adjust their coverage, show a blitz, run cover two behind it.

And that caused some confusion with Pennix. And again, like you brought up the point that he kind of gets locked on to his reeds. I thought the second interception was a great example of that. Again, it's kind of a tough situation anyway, but it's fourth and 13. I thought that play is a sale concept. And I know sometimes you don't want to use like scheme and scouting. It's kind of like you don't want to use all the time. But this was a great example of why I've hesitations with panics.

He doesn't throw over the middle. He doesn't progress to throws over the middle. This sale concept is an outbreaker on it. He throws it to McMillan. He's locked in on it. Michigan rotates to cover two with three safeties on it. on a sale concept, the throw typically is the backside dig on that concept. That's one that you want to get to.

That's Roman Dunzié is the backside dig. It was there. It's not the guy you don't want to go to. It's the guy you do want to go to. It's an X. And on that play, he's locked in on it. They rotate the cover tube. There's a little pressure on the edge.

He could have stepped up in the pocket. And on that, but nope, he's like, I'm throwing, I'm throwing, I'm throwing, it ends up throwing the pick. The first interception, empty. On that play, he goes coast to coast with his eyes. And this is just where it helps sometimes I have the quarterback background. That concept is not a coast to coast concept. And what I mean to that is you're not supposed to go right and that all the way back to the boundary to the left.

And that's what he does. And you can tell he's like, his feet are telling him to throw. And he doesn't know where to go with the ball and ends up, he lobs it gets hit and ends up being an interception. Throwing over the middle. This was the stat I brought up last time. In this game, he went three for nine for 37 yards throwing from 10 to 22 yards over the middle. A touchdown and a pick. The touchdown was what I thought his best snap was, progressing, hitting McMillan late in the red zone.

But he only had a 22% success rate on throws over the middle. And that is always going to be a thing I come back to, the big platform that he needs throwing the ball. And that's why it hesitations. I kept saying, oh, he's a day two guy. And people are like, what? So you take him the first round, though. And I'm like, no. It's like, I appreciate that he does launch it downfield, but he does a lot of things that I hesitate on because he's a six-year guy, third year in this offense.

these are concepts he should be getting to the advanced answer, and sometimes he just does not. That's what causes my hesitation a lot. Yeah, and that's fair. And, you know, I think before going into this game, you know, I wrote how if, you know, he plays well. It wouldn't surprise me if a team talks himself into him as a top 20 pick. Oh.

You know, not that I agree with that, but it wouldn't have been surprised based on what he did against Texas. And then if he could do it again in a similar way against Michigan, And he just, it was, he wasn't able to do that. And I think, you know, again, what he did against Texas set up some pretty unfair expectations for him as just, you know, what he is as a quarterback. And so it's going to be interesting now. You know, he has a senior bowl invite, has not accepted it yet. I wouldn't be.

I think that he could really benefit from a week at the senior bowl. Not that it's going to drastically change what you think of him, but it could help. I do think he's pretty beat up physically. and that's something that a lot of guys, I was talking to an agent the other day and asking one of his juniors got an invite. He was like, hey, are you going to play? That'd be great to see him.

He's like, I talked to him about it. He's like, I've got three broken bones in my hand that I've been playing through. I'm not going. And like a lot of guys are banged up right now. That's one of the bigger reasons why if a guy pulls out of the senior bowl or shrine bowl, it's just to try to get healthy more so than you know, trying to act like they're bigger than the game or anything like that.

So we'll see with Pennix. He got beat up last night, you know, and the medicals and the durability and all. That's a totally different discussion when it comes to him in the draft. But, you know, again, I don't want to put it all on him. Again, the offensive line. Right. Cedar the line got beat up at times, yes. They saw a defensive line that may, you know, they probably haven't seen.

I mean, Oregon has a good defensive line, but not like what Michigan has. And so several of those guys struggled. You know, I there's kind of drops to. And then there's also too. It's like that. Yeah. I charted. Right.

I charted three drops when I went through the tape this morning. Flipping sides, you know, let's talk about the team that actually won, right? Yeah. Sorry about that. J.J. McCarthy in Michigan. Absolutely. Let's have a tough conversation with J.G. McCarthy because he's, he's coming out. He's got to.

You know, Harbaugh is likely going to. under the NFL. You just won the national title. It would be a pretty big shock if he doesn't go pro now. He was good last night. He missed some throws. But just like Alabama, just like against some of these other teams that he's faced, he showed up when his team needed him the most with his arm and then with his leg, especially that 22-yard run in the second half, that huge third-down conversion that he had. So I think when you have the J.G. McCarthy discussion, it's so much of it is based. off projection. And that, it really makes it tough because he's just not asked to do anything overly complex

in this offense. A lot of clean windows are skiing for him. He does a great job, especially over the middle, working the tight end game. Just things are going to be so much harder in the NFL. And there feels like there's a gap. How quickly he can bridge that gap is the question to, or is the answer to, you know, the question of what, what is his draft grade? Where do you draft him?

What's his ceiling? How quickly can he get on the field? for you. And I think a lot of people are going to look at the stats of the season and what he did and be impressed. But I think you have to almost divide him into two sections. You have the first two months of the year where he looked, he looked great. And I did this earlier. I say, Bowling Green, you know, all those teams. So the first two months of the year, he averaged 10.6 yards per attempt, 78% completion. I mean, they were fired it. Ridiculous numbers. Yeah. Yeah. The last six games, which is the tougher part of the schedule, Penn State, Ohio State, a Big Ten

Championship game, Alabama, and then, of course, Washington, his yards per attempt dropped to 6.8. So four yards, huge difference. And then his completions were 66%, which not a bad number, you know, but obviously a much different number compared to what he did against the easy portion of the schedule. So he is not someone, you know, they don't put the game on his, on just on him. You know, they ask him to manage the offense. And it just feels like there's a projection there that is going to be, create a wide range of opinions throughout the scouting community, throughout from team to team.

He could be anywhere from the third quarterback to the sixth quarterback drafted. I don't think either of those outcomes would really be overly shocking. Does he go in the first round? I don't know. That's a tough, tough question to answer at this point. This one. Yeah. I think fans need to remember.

This is not, there's not a consensus board out there that every team drafts from at quarterback. You know, every team looks at these guys so differently. Yes. I don't know. It's, you know, last year. We haven't started interviews, which is just, then that there's a whole new monkey wrenching to it. That's something where I think, that's where McCarthy, I think, is going to flex his muscles a little bit. Because I think every time I talk to a scout or somebody about McCarthy,

I think the intangibles are the first thing I was bringing up. How smart he is, how unflappable he is, just the way he carries himself, the impact he has on his teammates, the coachability. You know, there's a lot there from a mental perspective that teams are going to be drawn to. Coaches are going to be drawn to. And that's going to be something that really helps him throughout the process. But, you know, it's just some teams are going to be out on him. Some teams are going to be higher on him. It's something that we'll have to feel out throughout the process.

It is. I feel like it's the guys that like them are going to love them. I think he's going to have some quarterback and offensive guys that really like him because like Shanahan type guys are going to love him. He throws really well on the move. He can create a little bit. He throws over the middle. And if he has a bad play, he's going to throw it over the middle again.

And that is something that they value. I wish he would gain 15 pounds. Maybe, you know, like that would be my biggest thing with him. that always causes me concern with quarterbacks. He might be under 200 pounds right now. I mean, he is very, very light. But he's a loose athlete. He's tough.

And, you know, and him throwing on the left is the most impressive thing he does, I think, because it shows off his athleticism. And he has, I would say his first three throws, which might cut him on three different drives. But no, his first three throws were quite impressive. He had one where he worked backwards into pocket, working left, hits an outbreaker. He had one short that he hit nice, like progressed over to the middle, a little spacing concept, which everyone runs, but it's good to see him. He got to the third read on it. And then he has the overrout to Roman Wilson, which I thought was just a really nice ball that he hits over to top.

And so it was just like, okay, I actually was almost getting a text to you. It was like, hey, hey, maybe they're going to let them loose. And then they just pound out the rock about 15 straight times after that. And then two long touchdowns. But I saw that. And then he had a couple sprays like you mentioned. And I think sometimes when he's throwing outside, especially deeper, he's a hair late. He feels like he has to gun it. And this is a common issue with younger quarterbacks. And then he overstrives and then the ball sails on him. It's like a clot.

And that's just, again, he doesn't have a lot of reps. Not even just, if he only throws eight to 12, 15 times in the game, how do you think they practice? They're like, it's, I went to Wisconsin practice that I'm telling you, we're doing this inside run or we're doing this position and we have eight runs and two pass plays. So it's just like reps at practice as well. You have to think about too. So I've,

I have no idea how I feel about them. I still have them in the day two range. I, that battle for QB4 to me is going to be up every week I'm going to change. Like it's just, it really is. It's like I, every week I watch a new game.

And then we're going to have the combine, all this stuff. But I with him is I can see why guys like him, even if I'm not all the way there yet. But like you said, the projection is very interesting because of the things he does do well. And also, oh, sorry, I want to bring this up too, was you brought up his scramble on that third and ten, on that third and long backed up.

That is such a key component to quarterback play right now. Watch Josh Allen against Miami on Sunday night. And I tweeted the stat for the three of the last four years, the bills have had the best third down conversion percentage in the NFL. They've had three offense coordinators that time. You know what the constant is? They have Josh Allen. And being able to run with your legs and get that first down is when everything else goes bad is like just such. a thing that you have to pull. McCarthy has done that several times this year.

Drake May, that's a big part of his game. He is one of the best scramblers that I've evaluated the quarterback position. And a lot of what he does is on third down. It's, that's it. It's funny looking at his third down percentages as a passer. And then, you know, it's, it's fine, but not great. And then his overall third down success on just his drop back. It shoots up because his ability to use his legs and co-make it happen. Yeah, it's interesting. Yeah, McCarthy conversation is going to be interesting. We'll be talking about it.

I mean, we've been talking about it. He was my QB3 over the summer. And I mean, somewhere in November. Even the company's schedule that you mentioned in that time, you're like, hey, this is good to see, but we haven't seen it against the scene. So like, it's just been, yeah, every checkpoint's kind of felt fitting almost. The other thing with him is, what's his record? it's 27 and 1 or I can't remember. Something like that.

That's going to be brought up often with teams as they mention him. He's a winner. That's something that every team will mention. And who knows, if Jim Harbaugh goes to the Raiders, is that something we're going to see them paired up again? That's another wrinkle in all this. That is a real thing. I'm sure. It's how teams might look at this.

Falcons. Falcons at pick seven. Yeah. You can't rule it out. You absolutely cannot. You know, we saw that with Cliff Kingsbury and Caler Murray, you know. Like, it's something that it doesn't really matter. How the team thinks of them if the coach is brought in like that.

You know, but we have to remember that with these first round quarterbacks, it's an owner pick, you know? Like the owner has to be on board. and some will be, some won't be. And again, we'll talk about the draft order here in a minute. But just to finish the Michigan Washington conversation, any other prospects stick out for you? Who do you got? Of all the guys on Michigan, it was A.J. Barner, the tight end. Not Colson Loveland, who it looks like a star.

He's good. Yeah. True sophomore, so not draft eligible yet. Yeah. Yeah. So the two most athletic tight ends I've watched this year were from Idaho and Napa Valley, California. Brock Bowers.

Yeah. So, but AJ Barner, that is a, that's a wide tight end right there. I thought he has been a key component, this college football playoff when I got to Washington L. 22 against Bama. Just they can run those outside runs and all that stuff, the pinpole with all the guards and everything and tackles because of what Barner does. He can block D.Ns and set the edge. That is a very valued skill.

And I think he's an okay athlete. He's not a big, just oversized tackle or undersized tackle. Like he's, he's an under, you see your quarterback's best. friend kind of security blanket. But I don't know. He's only kind of been on my radar lately as I've watched more and more Michigan as the season went along and just thought of him an interesting day three Y tight end. And those guys are, you know, not easy to come by that can actually play those snaps. So I actually, yeah, of all people, he stood out to me. And then of course, you know, I thought Donovan Edwards was, that first touchdown was exactly Donovan Edwards. That's him right there.

Bad vision. Right. Exposive as hell. Run right up the butt of his blocker and then just. Then it's step back and it's right there. Yeah. That's it. His yards per attempt on the season went up a full yard after the title game. Five. Because he was. He's over five now.

Well, no, he was three and a half coming in. He was out. He is. Yeah. I mean, he was, Donovan Edwards was a ghost this year. Just a really strange situation. Obviously, Blake Corum's the bell cow, but still, you expected more explosive runs from Donovan Edwards.

We did not get that this year. until the title game when he had those two 40 plus yarders in the first quarter. So he's, I know, you know, just talking to scouts that they expected him to go back after how the season played out. Now, who knows?

You know, he might look to capitalize on that. And, you know, it'll be interesting to see what his draft value is. Because I know coming into the year, when talking about Corm and Edwards, it was always,

well, Edwards is a better, Corm's a better player. and just yeah, but the better prospect is Edwards because of what he gives you in the passing game, some of those explosives. But now it's kind of flipped a little bit because Corum, you just know what you're getting. And he has his limitations, but you can, you know what kind of role that he's going to have with Edwards. A little more feast or famine and a little tougher to project. But yeah, he should test well.

And a guy that if he enters this class will be a nice little boost to the running back group. Is his core is Kevin Falk a good comparison? for Blake Corum. Interesting. Yeah. Breaking out the 90s running backs. 99, I think. I just drafted.

Yeah. Short-yardge, Path Pro. You know, some pretty good vision, but just, you know, short and stocky. And, you know, he's a nice auxiliary back. You know, you want them in your room, but you're not going to lean on them. I've kind of thought of some teams because Corum, I don't know if there's a prospect I've, like, have unwavered on this entire year. And I mean that in a good way.

It's like, yep, I know exactly what you are. But I started to think about some teams. It's like, God, the Jaguars would love to have a Blakeorum right now. Just short yardage pass pro, all the dirty work stuff and get those eight to ten carries or eight to ten touches just to help out. I really liked him as a pro. I think you talked about him earlier this year. I'm going to go to Michigan's defense. But I can't remember kind of like your one liner on him.

But Junior Colson, the linebacker for Michigan. How do you feel about him? Because he had some moments and then he had some other moments. and say I kind of wavered me back down as I rewatched. I liked him. I mean, I think that he, as a prospect,

he's probably in that third round range. I mean, he's a guy that's going to be. So he looked like. Yeah. I mean, he can, he's got enough range where he can make plays in the flat.

In coverage, I mean, I don't, I question the anticipation a little bit, but he's going to arrive with physical intentions. He is, and he's banged up too. I know he's playing through a lot of injuries,

but two broken hands, I think I saw. Yeah. But you would have. You wouldn't know it by the way he plays. So, yeah, I think he's, if he, he's expected to declare and he'll probably be in that third round range, be one of the first linebackers drafted. His communication was really impressive, but it was just something I noticed. I was watching the spider cam angle the whole time.

And I mean, this goes to Michigan's coaching. But yeah, he, they were calling out. I mean, seriously, there was one point, and I tweeted it. But it was watching Colson through this whole pre-snap process as Pennix is checking twice on the play. first a formation change and then the play change. And Colson's calling out each check. And it was very impressive. And he triggers and causes an incompletion.

And yeah, he stood out to me at least throughout the game. And Washington, anyone stood out to you, you know, the receivers or the receivers. They, Jalen McMillan has had a nice playoff. Kind of finally looks healthy. He is smooth. Yeah, he is. That's the best way to describe him, I think. But Dunezay looks awesome.

Dunez is great. Yeah. He's just, he's so coordinated as a ball catcher. Yes. The body control, the ability to finish, really, really impressive. And his ability to kind of expose some of those zones, Pennock, I mean, he was there. Pennex couldn't hit him a few, a few of those times. The deep ball is something that they've lived on all year and they just weren't able to hit it,

which was unfortunate for Washington. But yeah, I mean, O'Don Zay, the receiving instincts, just fantastic. It's going to be really interesting to see what he runs. I mean, I know he was a big track guy in high school. He's also bulked up. I mean, he's supposed to be close to 220 now. So we'll see exactly what he runs. But like I said, it's not a perfect apples to apples comp,

but there's some of Mari Cooper there with just some of the way he moves, just how reliable he is. I don't know. But regardless, so Dune's going to be a pro for a long, long time and helping NFL offense, no doubt about it. You know, just the offensive line, we mentioned how they had their struggles. Washington, Fontenew, I thought, was solid. On the other end, Rosen Garden, I think he showed what he needs to go back for another year.

I know he's been kind of feeling out the process about whether to come back or go pro, and I think he definitely needs to go back. On defense, Brayland Trace had a few, I thought he would have more of an impact on this game. Yeah. He had a few pressures, but then kind of when they needed it the most, he just wasn't able to get home. Still a really good player. His best play, to me, it was a play. He didn't even make a tackle on.

He beat, he was a short yardage play, and he beat the right tackle inside. It was a really nice move. His one-yard burst is really impressive, and he has strong hands, but then it's like, his closing speeds, you know, leaves a little lacking. It's just that second third step that you like to close make the play. I worry about him at the top of the rush. That's where he's just... That's a good way to put it. Yeah, that's a great way to put it.

Yeah, he's just, he's not a bendy guy at the top of the rush. That's not his game. That's not, he is a, he wants to use his hands, go through you. He can set up an inside move. And like you mentioned, that little, that quick first step, use an arm over. Yeah. But yeah, he's a guy that, you love the effort. You know, he'll line them up on the inside.

he'll win through the A gap with some of those arm over moves that he has. But yeah, the violent stabs. That's what really he's going to, that's his bread and butter. That's going to earn his paycheck in the next level. And he'll set up a ghost move off of that, quickly take his hands away. But yeah, he is a good, good player. So they were in my piece, I wrote for the athletic. My over under on prospects in this game was at 22.

That would be drafted in April. So a lot of dudes out there But we'll see who declares And then actually how many people get drafted That's another thing Yeah then transfer portal is always the thing And all that good stuff Yeah the only other one was

Jack Westover because I've watched enough Of Washington's offense this year That steady Eddie Another day three kind of tied end But nice like a solid mover Not overwhelming size or length or anything like that But just yeah nice steady hands and everything They love those six yard stick routes

So he Right feasted on those this year. So I just wanted to give him a little shout out to. A couple day three tight heads were kind of fun to watch. And he, he's gotten better. Both Barner and Westover, they've gotten better as the year has gone on.

Like they were PFA graded guys over the summer. But as the season has gone on, they've had more of an impact. And now, yeah, they both have a shot to get drafted now. Neither are on my watch list this summer. Like my initial kind of dozenish guys. So if they want to put that,

and now I, yeah, I have a draftful grade on both of them, I think. All right, yeah, we mentioned some quarterbacks that, you know, might sneak in. I had the beholder, but that's top of the draft order has solidified. The lottery, if you will, of the NFL draft, but there is no lottery selection. So, yeah, we got bears on top, Washington, Washington commanders, second, Patriots third, Cardinals fourth, Chargers fifth, which is interesting.

I'll just round the top top ten. Giant, six, Titan seventh, Falcons eighth. I got those two mixed up. Bears ninth and Jets 10th. But then it is, yeah, then it gets into Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Saints, Colts, Seahawks, Jags, Bengals. Jags, Bengals, those last two were not ones I expected to say at the beginning of this season. But there they are at the end of the lottery. That's always the worst to have the not make the playoffs, but then also be drafting 18th in the draft.

That is a tough pill to swallow. Yeah, I mean, we knew the Bears were picking one. The two, three, four was going to be interesting. just how those teams were going to play out. And it's always interesting in the final week of the year, who's going to sit their starters? That has major ramifications on how the draft order plays out. But now, okay, the commanders have the number two pick.

It sure seems likely that quarterback's going to 1 and 2. I know a lot of Bears fans are still gripping them. The hope that Justin Fields will be the starter, I just don't see it. I think they trade him. That's, I don't know. And I think that if we're just going based on odds, that is, I think, the odds on favorite to happen. The Bears will trade Justin Fields.

They will draft a quarterback at number one. And then the commanders will draft a quarterback number two. And then it gets really interesting with the Patriots at three. Do they draft a quarterback? Do they like any of these quarterbacks enough to draft there at number three? We haven't seen the Patriots draft in the top five in three decades. 1994. Wow.

So, yeah. Any guess who their pick was in 1994 in the top five? Southern Cal. Is it Seymour? No, he was like six overall. Okay. A couple years later after that. A couple years later.

Oh, before. I actually, I remember this one. That's why it's going to bug me because I remember I was looking at the last time the Patriots trapped inside. Who is it? William McGinnis. McGinnis. Dang.

It was another front seven. guy at a Southern Cal, which, you know, it was a good pick for them. But yeah, we don't have a track record of the Patriots picking top five, especially Bill Belichick. Who knows if he'll even be the head coach by the time you guys are listening to this. But yeah, it'll be interesting with New England there at three. They're a complete wild card. Arizona at four feels like Kyler Murray is going to beat the guy for at least another year. So do the Cardinals go?

This really feels like a wide receipt. All these teams could trade back. but if Arizona sticks and picks, it feels like this is a wide receiver or a tackle. Whichever, you know, they drafted a tackle in the top 10 last year, could easily do it again this year. Or is the right receiver there available for them?

And really, you could say the same thing about the chargers at five. You know, tackle, upgrade the offensive line. Or do they go with another first round receiver, which, you know, I don't, they're not saying they're cutting bait on Quentin Johnson already, but at the same time, AO, it's no mystery that they need to get more explosive wide receiver.

So top five is going to be really, do you have any strong takes on the top five in terms of what you think might play out? Oh, man. I went tackle with the Chargers. I think I picked six when I did their mock a few weeks ago. And Chargers fans were not happy. And I just wanted to remind him how Justin Herbert ended the season on his back. Because they want a receiver? They want a receiver.

Well, they want Brock Bowers. That is their, Brock Bowers is the guy to them. That's the December, January, golden boy to them. I'm shocked that they're pining for a tight end in the top five picks. I know, I know. But I, for them, I had Fashano going there and why I said that even though I do not think he has Ritechko experience. But the Slater had Ritechko experience at Northwestern.

And I don't ever want to do that or, hey, bump this guy over and act like it's Madden. I understand the realistic ramifications of this. My dad was an offensive line coach. I do. Everyone that yells at me about that, it's like, no, I understand this. But why I said that's possible is, you know, Slater battled some injuries again this year. And then he still is good. Don't keep your right.

This guy was an old, second team all pro as a rookie. Right. But I think, you know, getting him on the right side and then again, Fashanu or alt, if they're an alt type going on the left side. It's like, man, do you get that with Herbert? I think just that's a great building block forever. It takes over plays there. So it takes over the franchise.

I just have fan fictioned Marvin Harris Jr. to the Cardinals in my brain. So I feel like I haven't thought about any other answer. But the tackle one is one, especially with DJ Humphreys in his situation. And how the Cardinals have been building, they kind of seem like they like to eat their vegetables. So I don't know. I don't know if they kind of go that. I do like the idea of Marvin Harrison Jr. with Tray McBride. Kyle Murray and Tray McBride have been fantastic this year. So, man, I think those two could be really cool together. But yeah, I think. I I think, though, one of the safest bets I have, unless the Titans just go completely rogue, is an offense tackle to the Titans.

I feel like that's one of the safest ones I would be willing to make on January 9th. But they just fired their head coach. So who knows? So how about you? Do you have like a one kind of one that you've kind of pinned or like kind of want to see? You know, I just sat down this morning. My next mock draft comes out next week once we have all the underclassmen declared. And we know the pool of players.

I'll be in this draft. So I was kind of mapping it out, just going through different scenarios. And I think the most interesting two teams in the top 10 might be the Giants and the Falcons. You know, with the Giants, you have a team that obviously with Daniel Jones, a quarterback, they, he has the ACL now. That's part of the conversation. What is their long-term view of that offense? Would they, if the right quarterback is there, say Jane Daniels, would they go in that direction?

I'm just not sold. know if they would or not. I think it's it's a tough call. Do they go with a receiver there? So the Giants are interesting. And then Atlanta, you know, obviously, I'll have a new head coach coming in. How does that play a factor? And I think the Falcons are now more of a possibility, possible landing spot for Justin Fields. I mean, the reason the Falcons didn't draft Justin Fields or even, I think, really consider him was, I mean, Arthur Smith was not a fan. was not his guy. And so now that Arthur Smith's no longer there.

Right. Maybe Justin Fields to Atlanta has maybe a better chance of happening if the bears do end up trading Fields is offseason. So Atlanta's in an interesting spot there with that eighth pick and what direction they might go with a new head coach coming in. So yeah, this is an interesting top 10. You know, we've got a few other teams outside of top 10 that we could see possibly move up. say for that quarterback three, whether it's Minnesota, Denver, Las Vegas, Seattle, a couple of these teams, you know, we could see make a move if they're big fans of Jane Daniels and they don't feel like he's going to make it to the teens.

So, yeah, I think there's some, and this is just the assumption that quarterbacks are going one, two. Right. Let me ask you this. Do you think it's a realistic possibility to see quarterbacks go one, two, three? I do, but the Patriots, I think, are more of a wild card than people realize. I think, yeah, I think we are just like, yeah, that's fine. But I think that's why it causes me hesitation that they might not.

And there might be a team that moves up for a non-quarterback. You know, when you talk about how many awesome receivers and tackles there are, they might be fixated on a Foshanu or a neighbors or Dunezay or Bowers or Bowers or, you know, something like that or Alt. They might have a guy that they want to move up to. Look what happened with Will Anderson last year. about to bring up that example. I mean, the Texans traded a future one to go up and get Willie Anderson because they believed

in him that much as being the top non-quarterback in the draft and a guy that can impact that side of the ball. And yeah, if a team looks at one of these receivers and says, okay, if we add this to our offense, that opens up all of this. If we add this offensive tap, there's no such thing as a sure thing. But it sure feels like with Joe All and Foshanoo, you're getting with one of the of these guys, you're getting a guy that's, I'm not going to use the word safe, but someone that you feel has low bus potential. You feel great. At the very least, they're going to be a solid starter,

but then also have an all-pro ceiling. So, you know, it's, if you have to move up a little bit to guarantee you get that guy, yeah, a team would absolutely try to do that. So yeah, the trade scenarios will definitely be flying the next few months. The Falcons one is a great call, because especially Arthur Blanks kind of their owner's comments like today or yesterday. I can't remember what day it was. I saw him today. And he was just basically openly saying, yeah, we're looking to move up. Like, just say, we're going to put just any means to find a quarterback.

I think the Ritter experience made that franchise realize their mortality. But I think that's kind of what happened there. But I think that's a very real thing. They might move up. You've got the Raiders who are the ultimate wild card. Quarterback desperation. is a real thing. And when you, some teams, some franchises are just so tired of watching what they've put on the field at quarterback that they will do whatever it.

I mean, the Brown's a perfect example, Deshaun Watson and what they had to do to go secure that trade and that contract. I mean, when you have a chance, if you think that someone's the guy, you will move mountains to go get him. So there are several teams here. in the top 12 to 15 picks that I would not be surprised at all if we see them make a move. It's going to be some interesting. And if you're the Bears, if you're the commanders, phone lines are open. You're listening. It doesn't mean you're going to move back.

But you'd be crazy not to listen to the offers that are coming your way. And it just feels like maybe New England doesn't mean pick at three. You know, I mean, they're one of those teams that I think they have to feel tired about the quarterback's play that they put out there this year. but at the same time. Two decades of the goat, we'll do that. Yeah, no kidding. But they just operate differently like you mentioned. So, yeah, the Patriots are such a wild card.

They're wild card there at number three. I know. It's going to be fascinating. And then we're getting ready into All-Star Game when all of some, now the talks, people are going to be in the same area. And talks are going to start brewing. And then that's going to become even more interesting. Some juniors, some juniors that have announced already, or sophomores, I should say,

underclassmen early declares any that you want to go over any that stood out to you that you want to kind of highlight so far um yeah and so just to kind of refresh uh we had the soft deadline for underclassmen the NFL officially sent out a list to all the teams of and there's like 30 some names on it and Drake may was on early declare yeah exactly but then teams still have or players underclassmen who have not officially declared they have until month day to quote unquote officially declare. And then another list will be sent out to all the teams late next week. Terry and Arnold announced yesterday, the corner from Alabama that he's declaring.

He is my quarterback one. I feel good about him as my top corner this year. You know, I think he, the growth that he showed this year and all the traits that he offers just has me really excited. And I think a lot of people, I got a lot of responses after I tweeted it that he was not even the best corner on his own team. He's the best corner prospect on his team. The traits that he offers, the competitiveness that he brings. I mean, I had him ahead of Kool-Aid McKinstree in my mock draft back in November. And really, it came down to Terry and Arnold and Nate Wiggins, the Clemson Corner for my top spot.

And I lean Arnold. I think he's got a better body. because he, Wiggins, the size, the lean features really. I was going to say he's got 20 pounds on him, right? Yeah. That's something that that's a factor. Yeah, probably closer to 15, but it's something that with Wiggins, I mean, he's taller. You know, he's legit 6.1 and 1 half and 185 pounds.

So it does worry me to a certain extent. I'm not going to pass on him in the mid first round, but at the same time, it does give the edge to Arnold for me, at least as we enter this process. So between, I'll just list. off my top corners here. Arnold's one, two is Nate Wiggins, three is Cooper DeGine,

who did officially announce as well. Sounds like he has been moving around. And so I'm very hopeful that we will get a chance to see him at the Combine because if he works out at the Combine, it'll be a show. I'm going to petition,

petition the NFL to insert a dunk contest at the Combines. Just to see Cooper DeGine. Some of his dungson in high school were ridiculous. Cooper DeGine 3, Quineon Mitchell from Toledo 4, and then Kool-Aid McKinsterie. Oh, so now you have Mitchell over Kool-Aid now? Okay. I mean, they're right.

I get it. I get it, though. They're right there. I mean, they have similar grades from me, so it's not, you know, clearly this guy over this guy. But as we go through the process, you know, Quignon and Kool-Aid are kind of, they're kind of close. Those would be the top five, and then, you know, I think there's a little bit of a gap after that. And then you've got the guys like Lasseter from Georgia, Rick Straugh, Missouri, you know, the top, top seniors after Quinion Mitchell, T.J. Tampa, guys like that. But those top five, I think, are a pretty good group.

Yeah. Oh, yeah. Mitchell is going to have some real fans just because of his traits. And also his play is extremely fun. But yeah, you want to watch a dominant corner in mid-level football. It's pretty fun. You don't get it often. It's a lot of fun.

But no, that's, I think the corner. stuff. I think, yeah, people are kind of catching up. You touted Arnold back, yeah, first week of November. I remember when you kind of brought him up and said, just trade size-wise. I mean, you just even to play. The competitiveness. I think that really stands out as well. I mean, it's

if I'm going to bet. You saw in the Michigan game. Yeah, absolutely. If I'm going to bet on a corner, I'm going to bet on his athletic traits, his cover ability, and then how does he compete? How physical is he, and this guy competes his butt off? And, you know, the mental toughness that he plays with,

Yeah, I'm all in on that. He's interesting background. He was a basketball first guy, most of his life. And he goes to high school in Charlie Ward was actually his basketball coach. And he only played football in high school as a off-season conditioning thing for basketball. And he was ready to quit. And he was like, I mean, football, I'm getting banged off. I'm just going to, and I'll quit so I can focus on basketball.

And Ward told him not to. He told him you need to stick with it because you're good. and you never know. And then all of a sudden, the offer started coming in for football. And he's, well, maybe I need a switch here.

And he really dedicated himself to football. It's awesome. Final two years in high school. And it's just been, he's been a rocket ship. As the development, getting better the last, you know,

five years or so. So, yeah, I'm going to bet on that rocket ship to continue getting better. Yeah. No, he's an easy projection.

Even solidifying himself at corner has been a thing. And that's, like, thing is he's just getting reps now. So I totally get the love there. And I totally get the number one ranking. I think I still have Wiggins, but I understand the argument with Arnold right now.

But he was a, I usually use this term for quarterbacks, but a pleasure to watch the second half of the year. I thought he was the other thing with Arnold was he would travel with the top receiver. So if that meant going into the slot, yeah, he would do that. And he had like 200 snaps inside. And that tells you something. Yes. That inside outside versatility, that's to me, that's a key thing that for his grade, that not all of these corners can. Some of them can do it, but it's more of a projection because they weren't asked to do it in college.

Nope, that's a great point. No, man, we got plenty more juniors to talk about in about a week, give or take. I say, we're still waiting on, you know, obviously the Michigan guys and the Washington guys. Like Rome, Dunes, they hasn't officially declared. Did Jalen McMillan Polk? Do they go pro as well? for Michigan, big ones, JJ McCarthy, obviously.

But then, you know, they've got a couple guys on defense, you know, mentioned Colson, a couple guys on that defensive line, you know, Chris Jenkins, you know, a couple of these guys need to officially declare. And so a few of these underclassmen decisions have not been made yet, but will be here the next few days. Great. I know. And then maybe some of them get them at some All-Star games,

which will be even better. Yeah, yeah, exactly. That's some guys, yeah, they'll be able to help themselves. So I'm excited to see who takes advantage of that. That would be great. Well, whoever does declare, we'll be talking about them on Prospects of Prospects as draft season keeps going on. We've got All-Star Games coming up.

We'll be kind of recapping and previewing the Senior Bowl Shrine game and other games. Then we got, you know, the Super Bowl coming up as well on the athletic football show feed. So be ready for that and the playoffs and all the good stuff. But we will be here every single Wednesday. with Prospects of Pros. We'll see you guys next time. This was the Athletic Football Show's Prospects to Prospects to Prosk.