The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Prospects to Pros: Dane Brugler’s updated 2023 NFL Draft Top 100

Episode Date: February 15, 2023

Andy Staples, Dane Brugler and NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein begin the show by talking about the Chiefs’ 2022 draft class and the impact the rookies had on Super Bowl LVII. Then, they examine Dane���s updated 2023 NFL Draft top 100. They discuss the TE’s, the talent at RB, their biggest disagreement and much more.1:01 Chiefs 2022 draft class contributions in Super Bowl LVII12:32 Dane Brugler’s top 10013:30 TE’s in the top 10022:52 DT Gervon Dexter Sr.28:19 DT Adetomiwa Adebawore32:13 Talent in the RB class45:45 Dane and Lance’s biggest disagreement in top 100Today's show is brought to you by...Atlassian: For projects impossible alone, visit www.atlassian.comRoman: Visit ro.co/athletic to get 20% off your first Roman order today!LinkedIn: LinkedIn Jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/maysPhilo: Sign up today at philo.tv and use promo code MAYS to get 50% off your first monthMorgan & Morgan: For more information on Morgan & Morgan services, go to forthepeople.com/mays or dial 1-(800) POUND-LAW from your cell phone Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to Prospects to Pros, the Draft Podcast, that keeps Robert Mays in the Athletic Football Show Company here on the Athletic Football Show feed. I'm Andy Staples. He's Dane Brugler. He's Lance Zerline. We got the whole crew together, the whole band together as we rumbled toward the combine. But there is that one last football game that got played that we got to talk about.

There's a team that just won the suit. Super Bowl. That's two in the last four years that they've won. They've been there three times in the last four years. Guys, I think we probably think the Kansas City Chiefs are due for a few more here in the next few years. But we can talk about Patrick Mahomes all we want. But the Chiefs draft has a lot to do with why they raise the Lombardi Trophy. So let's talk about that first.

I mean, you get a couple first round picks, Trent McDuffie and George Carloft is. Sky Moore was contributing. Chanel, Cook. I mean, this is an incredible draft all the way down to round seven where you got Jalen Watson and Isaiah Pacheco who were massive contributors this season.

That's what stands out the most, right? Lance, I mean, you get McDuffie in the first, but then to get two corners on day three that are significant contributors, and let's be honest, there were times in the Super Bowl against the, Eagles where you could you could see the youth. You could see those guys are still figuring things out.

And not just that game, but the entire year, how important they were to that defense, paying immediate dividends. They put a lot on those guys' plates to say, hey, it's sink or swim time. We need you on this defense. And, you know, Jaylon Watson stepped up. You had that big pick six against Herbert, the charges early in the year. You know, I think the corners are really what stands out from this draft class. Yeah, I think, I think Beach has done a really good job over the

there with corners. You know, there's maybe not a team that I have bigger agreements and bigger disagreements with than some of the chiefs picks. And sometime I'm right and sometime I'm wrong. And I was wrong on Jalen Watson. Kid looks really good. He always had the traits. But I don't know.

I just, I didn't love him on tape. And there's a reason that he went as late as he did. But he's been terrific. And I mean, Trent McDuffie, I absolutely loved. I thought he was fantastic. Brian Cook there and I think the second round. played a very important role for the, for the chiefs this year.

You mentioned, I mean, Pacheco has just been, you know, I look at my write-up of Pacheco, and you think I gave him a high grade, and then I look at the grade, and it just wasn't there.

And I think I got too focused on, I got too focused on some of the things that, I think I was trying to nitpick some little things here and there, because I'm talking about how he's like a, he's like a car with the brake lines cut. He's just, you know, he just is completely downhill.

I had this, my right. looks like I love him. And then I'm like, how did I give him a 5-8? Five-eight is like a six-seventh-round pick, but that's where he went. And I'm like, how are he going to the seventh round? I don't understand this because you could see how frenetic he was as a runner. And that's one of the things I'm really, like, I really love guys who play with maybe

too much energy. You can always dial back energy. Low-burn guys, it's hard to get low-burn guys up. And when I'm watching guys who play with tremendous energy, and there's a lot of these kind of guys this year at linebacker and at defensive end, especially Edge, who play with just really high motors, high motors. High motor guys get secondary sacks.

High motor guys, you know, get plays that get extended. They're the ones who are there making place. High motor guys are around the football because they're rallying there. When the ball's on the ground, they're recovering fumbles. High motor guys try to be around the ball at all. all times. That's why to me, motor effort and strength can absolutely play, whether it's a running back or at linebacker or at, you know, at offensive line, guys who just, guys who are a step beyond the average player when it comes to their effort level, they tend to translate.

And that's Pacheco. Yeah. And I think it's a great example of evaluation. and then valuation, you know, because I think I'm in the same boat. I went back to my draft guide, looked up my report on Pacheco, and this is the final three lines of my report. Pacheco pounce his typewriter feet with quickness and violence as he picks through congestion and looks for a speed track to show off his wheels. Though his urgent run style is a plus, it also works against him as he battles inconsistent tempo at the line of scrimmage. He's a fast, energetic runner with a toughness and pass blocking upside to stick in the NFL, but needs to add some patience. and pace to his run diet. So, I mean, I think, like, I'm picturing him with the chiefs.

I think I nailed it. You know, just like what you're saying, Lance, but the valuation was where I was wrong, because I gave him a seventh round grade. And that's exactly where he was drafted. So, you know, looked good on draft day. But in hindsight, should have valued him much higher because of what he adds with that energy, with those, the typewriter feet where it's just up and down, up and down, just churning away those yards. So it's a good example of that evaluation versus the valuation. You have to get the evaluation part right to understand what type of player he is. But then it doesn't matter if you don't get the valuation right and understand, okay, what is he going to be for our team? Where do we value him in the draft? How do we

get him on our squad? So it's really an important piece of this whole process going through the draft. There are a few draft stories on this Chief's offense, though. Because I think Cadarius Tony is another interesting draft story. Cadarius Tony's a first round pick. The Giants couldn't figure out how to use him. He goes to the Chiefs. They take what makes him special and they accentuate that. There's a reason Cadarius Tony went in the first round.

If you've ever in person seeing Cadarius Tony run with a football in his hands, you don't have to have any specialized training and you go, oh, there's something special about that. But you also have to know that. you're not going to get him to do a ton just in the flow of your offense. That's not how that works. You've got to draw up some stuff for him. And it feels like Andy Reid figured out the best ways to use him. I think it goes deeper in that, though, Andy.

And I think Dane may agree with me here. There were some red flags on the Tennis, Tony, coming out. And I think you go to a, listen, he's not that great of a rapper. I understand, you know. No, no, no. He's trying. I know. Locker.

Yeah. The locker. room character stuff, and this is a great example of if you were a lesser team like the Giants, and I don't know what their character in the locker room or what their leadership stuff was like in the room. I just know this. It didn't work out, and I think they wanted to get rid of him. They were ready to get rid of him. When the new regime came in, they were more than happy to move on from Cadarius Tony. He had had some issues there. But then when you're a team like Kansas City who has a strong locker room as established leaders, you know, you take a chance

and you say, hey, we're going to get the best from this guy. And if and when we don't, we'll move on from him. We'll be fine. But he can absolutely help us now. It's what Bill Belichick did with Randy Moss. It's what Bill Belichick did with Corey running back from the Bengals. Corey Dylan. Corey Dylan. At different times, he took guys who had been quote unquote character concerns or difficult locker room guys with other teams, and you say, we'll take him for the talent as long as we have a strong locker room. And I think that's what the Chiefs did,

as they said, we'll give him a fresh start. We'll give him. No, I think they plan on keeping him. I don't think they're looking at him as a rental player, but he is on first contract still, and they still have time to, you know, to sift through this. But you're right, Andy. They took a former first rounder,

another one from another person's draft in 2021, and look at the difference. Sky Moore scored a touchdown. Pacheco, I believe, but didn't Pacheco score? I believe. I know Jared McKinnon didn't, and that was the smart play. Yeah, Jared McKinney didn't. But you had Sky Moore scored, who was a draft pick.

You had a guy you traded, who was a former first rounder in Cadarias. Tony scored the same play. But if Pacheco had the great game, didn't hear as much. Saw Brian Cook, didn't hear the name as much from, Carl Offtis, but he is the type of high energy, powerful guy that is going to be a factor moving forward. Well, and this is what you have to do, right, when you have so much of your cap tied up in your quarterback or a defensive playmaker like Chris Jones, you have to go get those, you know, find the value. And so for the chiefs, that was Cadarius Tony, where you're giving up a third year. You're giving up something for him, but what you think he can bring to your offense.

And that's why it was so important for the chiefs to nail their draft class. because they don't have the resources to go out and spend, you know, all these dollars and free agency, you know, because it's just everything with the cap. And that's how you have to live in the NFL when you have a star quarterback that you're going to pay. You have a star on defense. And that's a big chunk of where your money's going. So it was very important for the chiefs to nail this draft. They did. And it absolutely paid dividends with the championship.

Yeah, they're going to have to keep doing it. Because what I saw the stat, Mahomes is. is the first quarterback who took up more than 12.5% of his team's cap to win the Super Bowl. And it's not happened before. Maybe we're going to see it happen more just because quarterback value, if you're that guy, keeps going up. But that will take a lot of maneuvering on the front office's part and the coaching staff's part to try to keep fitting the pieces together.

Because they trade a Tyree kill because they can't keep a Tyree kill. in this cap situation. So, yeah, they're going to have to keep doing it. So I'm excited to see their draft now because that's what, you know, what they what they pick five, round five, round six, round seven, I'm going to be very intrigued by it because they sure nailed it this time. Yeah, they did. And we're in a different time now where quarterbacks and star wide receivers cost so much money,

such a huge part of your cap that as Dane talked about and as you talked about, Andy, being able to balance your roster out with with rookie contracts. What's happening now is we're seeing lesser quarterbacks or quarterbacks on rookie contracts are where the A plus wide receivers are being traded now. Eagles. Perfect example. Yeah. Jalen Hurts, rookie contract, A.J. Brown.

Yeah. With Tiree Kill. And so I think that's one of the things you're going to have to start. are looking for is that eventually teams are going to say, and I think the Raiders were basically saying, we have to have this work with Derek Carr. Let's go ahead and bring in the A plus wide receiver and Devante Adams. But you're going to start seeing more of the teams with the big time quarterbacks. They're going to have to keep drafting wide receivers because they can't afford to keep, not for very long, the high end wide receiver and the high end quarterback. I mean, the Chiefs,

man, what a great example. But it also, it's a cheek coat of tight end. Just like if you have Travis Kelsey on your fantasy teams, it's a. massive advantage because that position is something that there's only going to be two or three of those players that can score like that. You hope, you know, Kelsey, you used to have Kettle, Waller. There's a very small amount of guys. So it's the same thing in real football. When you have a tight end who can function basically as a wide receiver, it takes less. Look at Tony Gonzalez with the chiefs for years. Look at Antonio Gates. Philip Rivers didn't have a bunch of stud wide receiver ones. You have stud tight ends and you fill in with wide receivers around them.

So this actually is a nice transition into Dane's Top 100, which released on the Athletic on Tuesday. So you mention those tight ends. You keep naming those names, and I keep thinking about where they got drafted. Like I remember Tim Brewster telling me the story about Antonio Gates. Brewster is a college assistant now. He's with Colorado now. He was at Florida State at the time he told me this story. But he was with the Chargers at the time that they got Gates.

and he'd been scouting him out of Kent State. And he's just freaking out that somebody's going to steal Antonio Gates because they were just going to sign him. I think they did sign him. Or maybe they drafted him the 7th. But he was freaking out because he's like, is somebody going to steal my discovery? This is my guy.

But none of these guys that we've mentioned, Gonzalez went high in the draft. But other than that, did not go particularly high in the draft. how is it that these guys are so hard to find? Because I'm looking at the top 100. And, you know, we've talked about this is a deep tight-in class. Michael Mayer is the headliner. Notre Dame was the focal point of our offense.

Luke Musgrave from Oregon State, maybe the, you know, kind of freakiest of this particular bunch. But then there's Darnell Washington. We talked about him. But Dalton Kincaid at Utah, he's your number 30. Like, is there another one of those cheat codes? tight ends in this draft this year. I think it just, it depends what you want. You know, if you really want the high upside, the guy that you know is a good blocker and

he has high upside to be more as a past catcher than Darnell Washington is your guy. And I think we touched on this before in the pod. It's just, it comes down to what type of tight end that you really want for your offense. And so, you know, I wouldn't be shocked at all if, you know, my fourth tight end is the first tight end drafted or the third, you know, because I think every team. value it a little bit differently. And what I'm most interested to find out is how early these guys go. I mean, you have to go back to find the last first round tight end that has really lived up to

being a first round tight end. It's not a long list over the last 10 years. So how does that affect? And a lot of teams, you know, they buy into that theory where, you know, we feel like we can wait. We don't have to take one in the top 25 picks. But the talent this year. a weapon now like Travis Kelsey is such a weapon like why would you not prioritize finding the next one of those in your draft you are yeah and I think if you don't Kincaid if you think that if you're

want to find the closest thing to a Travis Kelsey or at least what you think Travis Kelsey uh or what you think a guy like Dalton Kincaid could be I think you'd be comfortable drafting him in the top 20 but that's it's a little bit it's a real bit of a roll dice uh a dice roll at that that point to draft a tight end that early that, you know, is, is not a clean, the most clean prospect, but he at least has, I think, the high upside to potentially reach that type of level. I know you really like Kincaid, too. Yeah. And I think that, you know, I like Mike Gisicki a lot coming out.

And people weren't as high on him as I was. But the reason I've started looking at guys as just tell me who they are and then play them, playing for who they are. Dalton Kincaid, so many people get focused on, you know, we're, Jane and I, writing up draft prospects for 32 teams for all these different schemes. And I started saying because what the board looks like for San Francisco is going to look way different than what the board looks like for the Pittsburgh Steelers, right? Based on schematics and what you need. So if we hyper focus on, well, Dalton King Gates is not a very good blocker.

Who cares if you're playing them in the slot as a as an ad. You know who else wasn't a great blocker? Antonio Gates wasn't a great blocker. He was great at blocking out to get out. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But who are they? Like, what do they do well? Well, Dalton Kincaid is a really good pass catcher.

He's smart with his routes. He's got incredible hands. He's got great instincts in space. Like, okay, that's what I want, actually, from the slot. We want to start mismatching people from the slot. Great. Then you need to elevate your grade on Dalton Kincaid. Do you want him to block a lot?

No, we've got another why. Okay, then why do I care about his blocking? Now, if I'm, if I'm the, San Francisco 49ers, I actually like my two tight-insets, both of them to be able to reach a certain level as a blocking team because my idea is I like two tight ends because I know I can mismatch you into thinking it's a big personnel grouping when really it's a passing grouping anytime we want it to be. So I want to be able to run if you go small and throw if you go big. And so I think right now, Andy, you're going to see it happen this year. It's a great question

it you asked because the value hasn't quite been there. And of course, you could talk yourself in the saying, well, look where George Kittle was drafted. He was like the fifth. Look where, look where, Kittle got trashed by his own school coming out of college. That's part of the problem. Right. I mean, there's none of these first rounders. But these are all guys like Luke Musgrave in years past would have been a second, maybe a third.

Dalton Kincaid would not have been a first. He doesn't block it all. Michael Mayer maybe would have hit the first. Now I think there's an understanding. A, the position is important. And B, you know what? What do they do? And do they fit my scheme and what they do well?

Like, if you really want a wide tight end, then mayor's your guy. That guy is going to get after it as a run blocker. And he can catch 56 passes. It's not going to be a problem. Maybe he can become, he's not as athletic as Mark Andrews. You know, there's another one who is not a first round pick. You know, Mark Andrews. Look how important he's been with for Lamar Jackson.

Yeah. And, I mean, it goes, I mean, Zach Ertz. I mean, yeah, we can go on and on with guys that can't block. Can't block. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. And so that's in, in today's game, or, you know, Zach Ertz, he might be a top 30 pick in the draft because of what he can do as a receiver coming out.

And that's what, that's what, Dalton Kincaid. There's some similarities there. So, yeah, and that's what the problem is with doing a top 100 like this, where, you know, I've got Quentin Johnston and Jackson Smith and Jigba, you know, tags are touching pretty close. those grades, but for very different reasons. They're completely different prospects. And, you know, it's not like they're, you know, they almost play two for different positions.

So even though, yes, they're both receivers, it makes it tough when you're stacking these guys. And it's the prime example of these tight ends because you stack them. And yes, we have our rankings, but they're very different in what they do. And each team is going to value them differently. So it does make it tough when doing an exercise like this. I almost feel like we should create some new positions. Like the draft world brought us the idea of an edge rusher because an edge can be a couple of different things. It can be your traditional four three defensive end, but it could also be an outside linebacker who plays in an odd front who walks up and plays on the line scrimmage most of the time.

But the fact of the matter is it's a person who's coming after the quarterback and that's their main job. I feel like we should have two different tight-in positions, which they do in the football world. Like you know what a Y means if you're a coach. But we maybe you know what an F is. Yeah. As draft media, we should put these out when we're ranking the prospects and say, this is a Y. This is an F with receivers. I do in my right.

This is a slot. This is a big. This is an outside guy. Yeah. So I think I think the answer to that, what I like to describe me as is big slots. So I remember when little Jordan Humphrey was coming out for Texas. To me, you can't get open. Like, he can't get open outside.

He's not fast enough. He's not sudden enough. But I thought he had a chance if he was a quote-unquote tight-in. But really, it's just a big slot. Yeah. Because it's a big slot. Who's a big, what does a big slide do? Well, big slot has a chance to mismatch.

You love it if they block a little bit. Because then, like Elijah Higgins from Stanford, that's a big slot now. You can call them move tight-in, F. You can call them whatever you want. But if I put them in a slot and you put a linebacker on them, that linebacker's cooked. for the most part. If you want to put a safety or a small corner, I might be able to get after you in the run game and run out of 11 personnel. So I like to just call it big slot because I have no qualms over the idea that some teams are not going to ask their tight ends to do a ton of blocking. And if you're playing the same position as, you know, if that's the case, then you're a big slot.

That means you have mismatch potential and that's who you are to me. I mean, we can call it F. Teams will call it F's, but I call it big slot because to me, it can take in a 225 pound wide receiver. It can take a 230-pound wide receiver. It can take a 235-pound wide receiver that you know should translate to Tide-in, just like Higgins from Stanford. Yeah. And I know that- What do you do than what position are you?

Right, exactly. Right. And I know, Lance, you do something similar, but if you read any of my scattering reports, the last line under summary, for me is always, this. is what he projects as, whether it's, you know, he's a three technique. You know, he's a weak side backer. He's, you know, he's more of a nickel corner. You know, it's always trying to be as specific as possible. You know, we have these big buckets corner, they're a safety, they're a tackle. But then for me, in my write-ups, when I get down to the summary, that's where I really get into detail. And, you know,

that last line's always the most specific as I can get. You know, he's, you know, it can only play in an odd front or whatever it may end up being. So, you know, it's right, exactly. You try to, you use these big buckets, but then once we get into the nitty-gritty of the report, you try to, you know, really get as narrow as possible with the projection. Well, that's what Jimmy Graham would appreciate us having this conversation. He had to go to arbitration when he got franchise tagged. He lost.

I think, I think we'd have gotten him some money if we'd have had this conversation beforehand. 100%. I, Dane, I want to talk to you a little more about the top 100. There's a couple of guys in here that jumped out at me. One is your number 48, and that's Jervon Dexter from Florida, defensive tackle. This is a guy, I remember I went on a Florida-centric podcast before this season, and they're like, how come he's not getting more draft buzz, blah, blah, blah, and I'm like, because his production is not there compared to you look at him, size, speed, he looks like a million bucks.

And I'm curious what you saw from this year's tape and why you put him here. His production still not great, but again, still looks like a million bucks. Yeah, I gave him a mid-second run in grade. And a lot of it is traits-based. It's betting that there is more in that body than we have seen. He's got basketball feet, basketball body control. He was really a basketball player. he returned to football as a junior in high school.

And he's only a three-year junior at Florida. So he's really been playing serious football for five years now. There's still a lot we haven't seen from him that I think we're going to, if he goes to the right place and develops, he carries his weight extremely well. You wish there was more backfield production to show for it. There's no doubt. I think the biggest thing for him is it could be traced all to his leverage. He's a very different player when he utilizes those long levers.

He plays low because he is 6.5 and a half. He's a taller guy. When he does that, when he does play with leverage, you see him put blockers on skates. But there are times where, especially when he's laid off the ball, which happens too much, you know, he's not able to do that. So I'm betting on the guy that's, oh, has that size. He's 6.5, 315, a big agile, coordinated big man who has yet to play his best football. And I think he has versatility up and down the line.

So it's just a matter of going to the right place. developing each year. So, you know, it's, it is a little bit of a, you know, faith-based projection because you're looking at the traits and saying, okay, he's going to get better. And I understand why not everyone's going to be as high on him because it does take a leap of faith. Lance, I think you are one of those people who's not necessarily as high on him. Yeah, I'm not as high on him. I've got more of a backup grade on him. I just, I just kind of graded the tape. Sometimes, you know, it's weird. I will say, and I don't know if this is a positive over a negative, but my process is not static. It's very fluid. So for some guys, I'll lean more heavily

on the traits. Like with Keon White, it's interesting, no, I was watching a Keon White game. Who was I watching? He was going up against Clemson. And man, the Clemson, Jordan McFadden, really had some great reps against Keon White. And that's game one, but it really bothered me a little bit because he was also a little inconsistent at the senior ball, I thought. So I kind of pushed him up the board on traits and now I'm like yeah maybe I need to back him off because initially I had him ordained as him but then I moved him up after I saw him on the on the hoof so to speak in the pads what he looks like physically because I do you know I have been taught to really uh really covet traits because the guys who end up being the best players many times are bigger

faster stronger longer it's historically the case but there are other times where I if I don't see something on tape that makes me think that you can project with a trait rates and can get better. It bothers me. With Dexter, I just, you saw him, Andy, you know him. I'm interested. With Dexter, I'd be curious to see him around better talent because, you know, it's interesting in the SEC, you're used to, when you see a kind of a top 100 D-Linman type,

he's got a lot of other NFL talent around him usually. That really wasn't the case for Dexter. And I feel like there was a lot. He was asked to do quite a bit. he was asked to play probably more snaps than a guy his size normally would. So I'll be curious to see when he's in an NFL environment, when everybody else is really good, too, does that help him? Does that make him a little bit better? Does he feel like he's not trying to carry everything?

I don't know. It may just be that that's what he is. It may be that he looks great, but he does not produce that much. But I get where you guys are coming from with the traits because you cannot. make a human that size that agile. You can only draft that. You have those. I mean, you have those guys every year and they,

especially on the D line, they get drafted higher than you think. I don't know where I projected him. I'd have to see where I projected him to go. But big long guys get draft who have certain body types. They go. They'll get drafted higher than it's 100% it happens all the time. You know, the little talented guys with more production,

sometimes teams just they get put into a bucket and that bucket means, okay, we like you, but we like you fifth, six, seven. That means we don't like you, but your traits aren't high enough for us to put you. You know, because even a fourth round is kind of that bucket where we keep guys a lot of times either separators, either because they are missing,

maybe a level of speed, but they're really, really productive. Sometimes you see that with line, inside linebackers or even wide receivers or high-end traits guys. who are raw and need development. A lot of times you stick them in the fourth round. Yeah, and that makes sense.

Another D-Lyman I wanted to talk about an interior guy. This is the guy we all saw the senior bowl. Tommy out of a warier out of Northwestern. His Ohio State game is one of my favorites. I enjoyed watching him play a lot against Ohio State on a day when nobody could throw the ball because the wind was blowing so hard. But he actually, among the D-Linman, was the second fastest in terms of that.

I don't remember what system they were using, but the GPS system, he came in second fastest among all the D-Lyman, and that included the edge rushers behind Keon White, which Keon White is a freak. So the fact that this guy, who's an interior guy, probably a three technique,

is moving like this, holding his own. That feels pretty impressive. You got him at number six, excuse me, number 96, Dane, This is one, and I talked to him a little bit after one of the practices. He's a, that's a dude who will do pretty much anything you ask him to do. And I always, I just always appreciate that.

Yeah, he was really singled out and credited with quote unquote rebuilding the culture of that team. That's what the coaches say. So, you know, and he's a guy that doesn't have the best feedback from NFL teams. You know, the feedback I get is all mid-round, day three. But after just seeing him what he did at the senior bowl with those one-on-ones and just the way he was competing, I had to sneak him in there into the top 100. So I don't know. We'll see if he ends up going that high.

But, you know, he's a guy that, you know, talk about, you know, maybe the opposite of Dexter, where doesn't necessarily have some of the measurables that you're looking for, but he has the production. And you know what? He just keeps coming at you. He's got those really freaky strength room numbers, which translate to the field, a natural three-tech. technique where, you know, he does a nice job of playing quick so he doesn't allow the center to reach him. But he also has that power where he can push guys on their heels and really disrupt what's going on in the backfield. So what kind of grade did you have on Atabari, Lance?

I had, when I first started, I had what would be a sixth because, you know, I don't love the fact he's six one and a half, 275. I mean, pure tweener. He is, I don't think he has enough. He didn't have enough edge rush, right, to stay at D.N. Then I'm like, I just don't know if you can bump him inside. We got to see the take. We got to see the physicality. And then I bumped him up to a 61, which is good backup to potential low-end eventual starter.

And that's because when you see him in person, his leverage is so unbelievable. He's long. He's long. He's 33 inches. So at just under 6-2, that's a long player. And so he can get into, you know, he gets into players quickly. He's going to be under all the offensive linemen he plays. He's not going to play anyone six-foot-one.

Can I give you guys a comp? Yeah. Gino Atkins. He's a little bit smaller than Gino coming out of college. Yeah, Pino is around 290-something. And I'm kind of wondering that Coligia can't see is, but I don't think Colligias is powerful at the point of attack as Tommy is. He's more powerful.

And so now I'm saying, okay. how are we going to use him? Well, what we're going to do is maybe play him on base downs as a run defender, and then I'm going to bump him inside to rush as a subpack of dresser. Now, of a sudden, I can get behind my grade a little bit easier, and I can push him up. And that's what I did. I mean, it's a Darius Rush.

I had a lower grade on Darius Rush. I thought he looked really good to Senior Bowl. I thought he had a good senior bowl. Had to move him up. Yep. He moved up to my top 80, 79, I think, because of what he did in Mobile. I mean, he was outstanding. And he might keep moving up.

I don't know. We'll see. But, yeah, Daris Rush looks like a guy that belongs on day two. So one of the other things that jumped out about your top 100, Dane, is when you get, you know, starting in the 40s, there's a little run on running backs here.

You've got Devon A chain at 44 who you and I both love. We've talked about him a little bit. But I'm curious, you know, as he compares to some of these other guys, because this is almost like our tight-in conversation. and it's kind of the flavor that you want, depending on what you need for your offense. Zach Charbonnet from UCLA, you have at 64, very different type of guy. Tank Bigsby from Auburn.

That one, I am really interested to see him as an NFL player because I don't think he's run behind a good old line yet. So, like, I'd love to see if he does happen to get on a team that has a good offensive line. But Rochon Johnson from Texas, you've got at 78. You got Eric Gray from Oklahoma at 89. and you know, Kendrae Miller from TCU at 92. There's a lot there.

Now, I'm curious, in terms of positional value, we don't think all these guys are actually going to go with the top 100, right? Some of these are going to be a little bit lower down and you're going to grab them, right? It's a log jam. And, you know, I mentioned this on Twitter yesterday, but it's also what might hurt a guy like Bejan Robinson in the first. When teams look at the running backs that will be available

in the third round, fourth round, they, you know, yeah, we really like Bejan. He'd be good value for us here. But you know what? We could also, you really use a tackle or we could really use another corner. And so we're going to do that in the first round and we'll wait on running back. It's something that could work against a running back who's really one of the best talents in this draft. But it's hard to find that exact landing spot for him.

Yeah, I think there's that third, fourth round, there's going to be a log jam of these backs. And it just, you know, they're all a little bit different with what they offer. You know, Tai J. Spears, the medical is going to be big for him, but he's, He's right there in that mix. You know, Eric Gray, I like quite a bit. But to your point, Andy, not all these guys are going to go into top 100. So there are going to be some really talented running backs available in that early fourth round. So it's something as teams look at their roster and they, you know, like the Cowboys are a great example where, okay, they can move on from Zeke and shed some of that contract.

Pollard is a free agent. You know, where are they going to do there? So they've got some decisions to make a big. I'll tell you with that line, if they take Tank Bigsby in this late second, early third, they won't miss anybody. It's a great point by you because watching Bigsby on tape, you get the feeling that he felt like he had to do everything. Like, you felt like he had to create on his own. He had to make something out of nothing on every single play.

But yeah, if you get him to be a little bit more specific to the run design and stick to it, trust, actually trust the blocking in front of him. Yeah, he's got a lot of the physical traits that you want at the position. So, yeah, it's just a logjam of guys at that running back position once you get into that late second, third round, fourth round. And, you know, some guys will have, or some evaluators will have Kendra Miller a little bit higher. Some will have a guy like, you know, Zach Evans a little bit lower. It's really, there will be a lot of different orders of these running backs and how they come off the board. and it will be interesting to see who's left after that top 100.

I'll tell you what, a guy who's not getting talked about, and I know I'm turning us into a running back conversation, but... Oh, it's a running back conversation. Let's add it. Yeah, well, I mean, I know it's not in Dane's top 100, but Muhammad Ibrahim, yeah. Dude, I mean, what he did against Ohio State to start the season before he tore his ACL in 2021, he was crushing them in that game.

Yeah. rushing. And then, you know, he tours ACL. He came back this year. Same workhorse. If they needed, now look, here's the problem. How much tread is on the tires? Yeah. Now, he runs like Damien Pierce does. Only Damian Pierce didn't have hardly any runs in college. And Ibrahim has a lot of tread off the tires. So when I look at Mohammed Abraham, okay, he's a one contract guy for me, more than likely, because I'm going to run. I'm probably looking at him as I can't touch him until the fourth at the earliest based on who he's. going to be and what he's going to be for me. But I think the value you get from him is you know that he

runs low to the ground, he breaks tackles. And he is a guy that, you know, on a team like Kansas City, for example, how Pacheco just kind of took over the team in place of a former first rounder, you could stick Ibrahim on, I don't, I mean, you could stick him on the Ravens. And all of a sudden, Ibrahim is just maybe other guys aren't staying on the field, ironically enough. And this is a guy who is just every run he's giving you everything he's got. And I think he is a really good second back. If you've got a back that maybe isn't as big a hammerhead, maybe you take him as your hammerhead complimentary back,

knowing that if your first guy goes down, this guy has no problems taking on 24 carries in the game. That's not going to be an issue. Right. I mean, he's not the most elusive. He's not going to run well. He's not a proven pass catcher. So, you know, those are the things working.

Plus the durability, obviously, you know, the medicals that need to check out. with his past injuries. Yeah, the ruptured Achilles, the big one. So those are the things you worry about. But once you get past that, you see a guy that's a no-nonsense runner. And teams, coaches, they're just going to appreciate the decisiveness, the vision, the power.

So now I would tend to agree with you. I think once you get to day three, he's the type of running back you look at and say, okay, you know, for our team with what we do, he'd be a really good fit as a number two on our running back depth chart. The other guy I wanted to ask both of you about is Zach Charbonnet at UCLA, transferred from Michigan. He's 220, but he's 6-1.

They list him at 6-1. I'm not sure exactly what he'll measure at the combine, but he just feels like a very interesting one to me because I don't even know that they scratch this or what he can do. he's easy to like because I think he does a little bit of everything I mean he's he's really good as a past catcher especially in the screen game he you know his all purpose I think he led he led all of FBS in all purpose yards per game yeah his vision is outstanding really love his vision you know he he's able to absorb contact really well I love his balance a big he's just he's an average athlete you know it the

is average. The speed is average. So you just don't see a lot of home runs on his tape. But I tell you what, he's going to lead the league of doubles. I mean, he's, he's a really good, you know, he don't see a lot of 20, 30, 40-yard gains, but 10-yard gains, 12-yard gains, 15-yard gains, he piles those up. So not a dynamic start-stop athlete, but the vision, the patience, the pass catching, even as a blocker, I think he's, he's above average in all those, all those areas. And everything I've heard from, coaches both at Michigan and UCLA, the football character, is outstanding. So this is, this is almost like Nick Chub, but if Nick Chub was kind of like an average athlete or, you know, just not the type of athlete that makes Chubb one of the best in the league, you know,

that's what type of prospect Charbonnet is. Yeah, you know, it's funny. Last year I wrote him up because I thought he was coming out. And I had a, man, I barely wrote anything on the negative column. I didn't write them all the way up. Actually, I was, I got, through a lot of his tape. And I was thinking, man, I'm going to have to kind of nitpick some negatives here. And then I watched him this year, and I just saw him differently. And I reached out and asked a friend of mine in the league, I said, do you ever see a guy one year and you see one thing? You see him the next year and you see him kind of differently? He said, yeah, it happens all the time. And that kind of happened for me. Charbonnet, I just saw this first round running

back last year. Now he's got great traits. But this year I saw him and I was more aware. of when he stopped the stop start stuff Dane when he slowed his feet he's not the same back and that's not unusual Derek Henry is is like that I mean Derek Henry is an elite back but to me one thing that I've noticed Andy and you'll appreciate that as a college football guy is I hate when there are certain downhill backs that you know should be featured in an eye formation because they have longer legs and they got to get downhill they're probably off tackle or outside zone tight backs who need to get the legs rolling. When you stick them in offset formations, I hate that because it doesn't allow them to do

what they. You're not putting them in the best situation. Oh, yeah. Yeah. It drives me nuts to, it's almost like watching Fred Flintstone trying to start the car, basically, because it is hard to move from that spot. And you've got to be pretty special stop, start to do that, to take the ball and then boom, you're moving.

I mean, shoot, isn't that why the Oklahoma, when they had Adrian Peterson, lined him up seven yards behind the line of scrimmage? Because once his legs got moving, you couldn't do anything with him. Like, he was unstoppable. So, yeah, I'm with you. So this goes back to what we're talking about with the Chiefs, though. If you just know what you're drafting and know what you're bringing on to your team and why you're bringing them on to your team, I think that makes all the difference in the world.

Sure. there's no doubt and you know it's that's what's where the evaluation part is so critical and because it's not all prospects are are wrapped and transparent wrapping paper you know it's you got to do some digging and understand okay you know they're doing this they're doing uh this type of scheme uh but you know how would he translate to ours and how does he translate to our locker room and our culture and i mean there's just so many that's where scouts have to be uh you know more than just talent evaluators you know they they have to really dive deep in those things so it's it's definitely a big part of the process.

The other thing is when I hear people say, well, is this guy an overall cornerback? Like, is he an overall wide receiver? I brought this up with Jalen Hyatt last week, which is I know what Jalen does well. Yeah. If I'm going to draft them, I'm drafting them for a very specific reason. It's the same thing when you look at cornerbacks that are 6-1 that run, you know, 4-5-240 that are long-armed that don't really, they may not be able to mirror and match out of a pedal. I'm not playing them that way.

I'm pressing them. I'm playing cover three with them. you know, Seattle had a very specific type of corner. San Francisco has specific kind of corners. I'm drafting corners that makes sense for what I do. The same way that the old bears, you know, 4-3, one-gapping, Rod Marinelli, up the field, there's a certain kind of defensive tackle you're drafting. There's a certain kind of defensive end you're drafting.

So that's why they're draft boards. And a lot of people can't understand this. And I don't know why. The draft board for the draft board for Kyle Shanahan's team, which has a very specific type of defensive player and a specific type of offensive player,

it's going to look way, way different than, and the same thing with the Cleveland Browns, for example. It's going to look much different than what the, maybe the Tennessee Titans have. You know, it's going to look, or then Bill Belichick. You know what Bill Belichick loves 250-pound bangers at linebackers. He likes old school

linebackers. Look at who he drafts. You know who doesn't? The rest of the league, but Bill Belichick is still drafting theatric-wise. You know what? He's going to draft six foot five long-armed defensive ends who may not have the greatest edge rush but they're long, powerful.

He has a tight. Well, I really look forward to New England Patriot Noah Soul. So I'm glad you I thought about the Patriots when I wrote up Noah Soul because I'm like, man, this guy's a Patriot. I watched that in Shaka, you probably know him, Dane. I didn't know him until yesterday.

Shaka Hayward, I mean, he is a bone rattling linebacker when he hits. And I thought, he's going to run like a 4-7-something, Patriot. Yeah, exactly. To your Jalen Hyatt point, like, you know, a lot of people point out, like, the route tree. Yeah, we touched on this last week, and you had a great Twitter threat on it. I just keep going back. Okay, I went back to last year.

seeing what Christian Watson did for the Packers. Yeah, he's a little bit longer than what Jalen Hyatt is. But Hyatt has, you know, the same if not better speed. And he actually can catch the football. I mean, he's got actual ball skills where Christian Watson's a little bit of a coin flip. So you're telling me that Jalen Hyatt can't come in and have a same type of impact at minimum that Christian Watson did, you know, if you use them. If you use them that way, you know? So it's, yeah, I think that's a big part of this equation is understanding what they do best and then making sure you're using them in that way. Well, it is, it is going to be fun.

And yet, first of all, if you're a coach or a GM who needs people who are great at all of the facets of a position, well, you're not going to last very long because those people are gone in the first 10 picks and then you move on to everybody else. So this is, this is about. Lance, real quick, can I? I want to ask you the biggest disagreement. I'm going to put you on the spot. Biggest disagreement from my top 100 compared to your rankings.

Was there anybody that stood out that you have significantly higher or lower based off my recent update? First of all, Dane and I actually see players fairly similarly. That's the first thing I want to say. We've got, I mean, we've got a lot of similar. We're always going to have differences. Everybody does. Dane and I actually see players fairly similarly for the most part. And I see players similarly with Daniel Jeremiah, who he and I talk about players.

I would say the guy I have at number 70, you have at number 10. That would probably be the biggest difference. We'll love us. Yep. Yeah. I just gave him a grade. Over the years, I've given quarterbacks grades based on, I kind of pushed them to where I think they'll get drafted and move them up.

I tend to move them up in this year. I said, you know what? I'm going to sit down and say, this is who I think the guy is going to be. and I'm going to give him a grade and wherever it ends up in the now if I had to stack it there's a difference between my grade and my stacking if I had to stack it will levis because he's a quarterback I just think as a quarterback he's going to end up as a 6.2 an average NFL starter that's not bad that's actually not bad but a 6.2 is a multi multi-millionaire is what that is yeah it's a multi-millionaire but if I had to stack it I'm probably pushing him up into the 40s if you really want to

know the truth because he does have, I mean, he does have upside. I do think that I haven't really bolstered him based on the fact that he was injured last year. I may do that later in the process because if he looks really good at the combine or at his pro day and he's thrown with better accuracy, then, you know, it just makes you think. It just makes you think because armed talent and high inability, but I don't want to fall into this Josh where everyone's Josh Allen. It makes you, you know, it's just a coping mechanism with you. Well, it could be a next Josh Allen because we're all doing that with Richardson and Levis and yeah it could be could be maybe there's the next Tom Brady and the next Michael Jordan but man those those

it could also be the next Paxton Lynch it's well but what you know look at Jalen Hertz you know I mean the guy we just saw in the Super Bowl who is a very much improved passer from the guy we saw at Alabama and Oklahoma, you know, and I think the, the root of that is the competitiveness and how, you know, just all the intangibles that he brings where, I think Will Levis has some of that. He hadn't, I'm not calling him the same level as Jalen Hertz in that manner. He has intelligent. I mean, he, I think is the highest wonderlick of all these quarterbacks. Like, there's a lot that's, you know, intangible-wise that I think will endear him to coaches. and that's another part of the resume that makes you think.

And, you know, okay, this guy, he's not afraid to fail. Like, you know, he throws a pick. He's like, okay, you know, it comes back and he's going to keep, you know, he's not going to let it bother him. He doesn't bring that baggage with him from play to play. So it's some of that that also makes his evaluation a little tricky. Yeah, it's real head, Lance. No, no, no, that's what I was, I was just going to say.

That's Levis is hard. Richardson's hard. They both require projections. You can't rely on tape. But frankly, I think Stroud is a projection based on one game. Yeah, it is. Where I have them, I pushed them well above where I expected to have them based on Georgia game. Rice Young is my only guy who I say, I'm sitting on the tape.

And my grade is going to be based on the tape. And he's the guy that's under six foot and under 200 pounds. So, you know, that's how it works out this year. This draft is going to challenge all of your conventional quarter. back wisdom. That's just what it's going to do. It's just this thing. It's going to be fun to talk about as we move forward. We are getting really close to the combine here. Guys, it's been a pleasure. We'll talk again next week. This was the Athletic Football Show.