The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Prospects to Pros: Projecting Will Levis, Jalen Hurts’ development, OT moving inside, drafting RBs in the first round & more NFL Draft mailbag questions

Episode Date: December 21, 2022

Andy Staples and Dane Brugler open up the NFL Draft mailbag to answer your most pressing questions. They begin by talking about Jalen Hurts the prospect vs. Jalen Hurts today and how his growth could change QB evaluation going forward. They also talk about Will Levis’ projection and when he could be ready to start. Plus, they discuss OT moving inside, traits vs. production at specific positions, drafting a RB in the first round and much more. Follow Andy on Twitter: @Andy_StaplesFollow Dane on Twitter: @dpbruglerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube1:05 Jalen Hurts the prospect vs. Jalen Hurts today11:01 Moving OT inside to guard17:28 Would Will Levis ready to play early?26:50 Thoughts on Giants drafting Anthony Richardson?34:41 Traits vs. production at specific positions39:36 Ranking the evaluation process43:07 When does it make sense to draft a 1st round RB?46:38 Players that can improve their stock on FBS playoff teams50:27 Top 3 Christmas movies Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to Prospects to Pros, the podcast where we talk about the guys who are about to get drafted, the guys who just got drafted and everything in between. I'm Andy Staples. I'm here with Dane Bruegler. We had a little IR issue last week, but we're back. Everybody's healthy. We're good.

And even better, you guys are the star of the show this week because this is listener Q&A. and you guys have some incredible questions. Dane put out the call for questions a couple weeks ago, and I have been very impressed, and I actually want to ask Dane all of your questions. We can't do that on the show, otherwise it would be 10 hours long, but we're going to try to get to as many as we can,

and I'm very excited about this first one because it's very topical and really ties into a lot of stuff we're talking about this year's draft prospects, even though it's about a guy who's been in the league for a few years. So this is from David. A retrospective look at Jalen Hertz, the prospect, versus what he's become three years later, the frontrunner for NFL MVP. How did he get here and how does the elite athleticism plus intangibles change the QB evaluation going forward? That's a great question.

It really is. And with the way Jalen Hertz has put himself into the MVP discussion, obviously he's questionable this week against the Cowboys with his shoulder, so that'll be interesting how that affects that offense moving forward. But looking back at him as a developmental player or as a prospect, I graded him as a developmental player, as a backup who could potentially become a starter down the road in the NFL. And I mean, safe to say, he's far exceeded my expectations for him as a passer. And I like the way David asked this question because he hit on two key areas that Jalen is just off the charts, the athleticism and the intangibles.

And as a passer at Oklahoma, he didn't throw with consistent anticipation. He was often late working through his reads. He'd force it into heavy coverage. There was a reason that he wasn't drafted in the top 50 picks. And I remember just talking to many around the league after that draft. If the Eagles hadn't drafted him at the end of the second round, he probably would have fallen into the third round. So what's the lesson that we learned from this?

And I think obviously part of this is the Eagles offense, right? Let's not take credit away from Hertz, but let's give credit to the Eagles and what they've built with that offensive ecosystem. It's an incredible offensive line, plus you added weapons. Like you go get A.J. Brown this offseason. You draft his Devonté Smith. It's a dominant run game. Dallas Goddard, when he's healthy, there's a nice supporting group around them. Like, let's give the Eagles credit for what they've built.

But also, you know, the most important relationship in football is between the quarterback and the play caller, right? And so Hertz, his versatility with his skills, that allows Philly to attack the weaknesses of the defense. You know, some games who see them rely on the pass. Other games, it's more of a run heavy attack. And Hertz is the catalyst of both. So he's just a much different runner than most of these mobile quarterbacks. You know, he's different than Josh Allen. He's different than Malik Willis.

You know, he's just different than Lamar Jackson. He's 225 pounds. he's got the build, the vision, the toughness of a running back. But he also does a really nice job avoiding hits. So he doesn't take a lot of those punishing hits that we see. Even some of these quarterback sneaks that he's going to take hits, obviously. But for the most part, he does a nice job avoiding contact. So I think that versatility really unlocks a lot with the game plan.

But specifically looking at Hertz, I don't think it's quite as simple as just athleticism and intangibles, right? because if it was Tim Tebow, we'd be, you know, he'd still be starting in the NFL. I think the improvements that he's made from college compared to, I mean, really just even from last season, you look at it and it's just, it's really, really impressive. Usually quarterbacks, we don't see them make these drastic jumps with their timing, with their decision making in the NFL when everything just gets faster. So Hertz has done that. And I think a big part of this, and this I think maybe is the best way to answer David's question.

about how we look at the quarterback position moving forward, is a big part of Hertz's development has been the mental toughness. And I think that has allowed him to stay confident and never a doubt. You never doubted his talent, you know, even though he made mistakes. The more he saw coverages, the more he figured things out. And really, I think that's the main difference between Hertz. And even, like, throw a guy like Josh Allen in that mix who took his lumps. You know, as a draft pick in the top 10, even though he did go early,

people were immediately calling a bust. They beat him up throughout the process. Even his first year as a rookie, he was labeled a bust early on. But the way that these guys have overcome, the mental determination, the resiliency, to battle through all those mistakes and realize their fullest potential,

that takes so much intestinal fortitude and the mentality. And that's really the big difference between Josh Allen, Jalen, Jalen Hertz, compared to a guy like Zach Wilson right now who is, you know, he's struggling to work through those mistakes, those speed bumps. So, you know, I think that that's the best way to answer to this is, you know,

yes, he's improved as a passer, and that's always hard to predict. But it's the toughness, the mentality that really power through that. So, you know, but I mean, even at this point last year, fans, us in the media, we were talking about the Eagles, oh, they have two first round picks. They're positioned well to go get a quarterback that they need to. I mean, that's not even on the table anymore. more. It's crazy the amount the narrative has changed. Well, so Jalen Hertz in college is a really interesting case study.

If you go back to his first game, this is true freshman year, 2016, Alabama, USC, and Jerry World. Blake Barnett starts that game for Alabama. Blake Barnett was a five-star recruit, had redshirted, was one of several guys they had on that roster. They had Cooper Bateman as well, who was another high-profile recruit who did. didn't wind up doing much in Alabama. Jalen Hertz comes in in the middle of that game. He's throwing beautiful deep balls.

By 2018, when he's about to leave Alabama, his throwing mechanics looked all out of whack. His ability to throw the ball down and feel like his accuracy was completely different. And I feel like his time at Oklahoma with Lincoln Riley was sort of the reclamation of his passing ability. And that's where it started. and then it sort of evolved as he got in the NFL. I'll give you a trivia question. How many offensive coordinators did Jalen Hertz have in four years of college?

Oh, gosh. So, I mean, obviously Lincoln Riley to Oklahoma. And then at Alabama, you know, he went through, was Lane there his last year? The answer was four. No, Lane was his first year. So Lane Kiffin, Brian Dable, Mike Loxley, and then he transfers to Oklahoma and plays for Lincoln Riley. So if you're looking for why he might be an outlier and why he improves so much as a passer early in the NFL, which we don't see very often outside of like Josh Allen, that may be the reason is that he was dealing with a lot of changes and said, do this, now do this, now do this, now do this.

And now he's in a consistent environment where someone is looking at what he's good at and building in a. offense around what he's good at. And the intangibles also helps because I will never forget standing in front of Jalen Hertz locker after the national title game when he had been pulled at halftime and two had come in and basically won the game for Alabama, you could not have handled that situation with any more class and dignity than Jalen Hertz handled that situation. And that's when you just knew this guy is different mentally. because most people would have just gone to the shower to the training room and never come out.

And then the way he handled the next year at Alabama, because that was before the transfer rules changed. If we're now, he would have transferred after the 2017 season. He would have played somewhere else in 2018. But at the time, you couldn't do that. You had to sit out of year. So he was in a situation where he was going to graduate from Alabama at the end of the 2018 season and be able to play somewhere immediately.

So he was either going to miss the 2018 season sitting out or he could be the backup at Alabama. He chose to be the backup at Alabama and came in and saved their asses in the SEC championship gang, against Georgia. Yeah, when Tua got hurt. And never once complained, never once did the wo-as-me thing.

He was just great the entire time. And I read the stories about him, you know, lifting with Lane Johnson and that that's who he seeks out. It tells you a lot. And so when you have those intangibles, that's a great ground floor to start with. You still have to be able to make the throws, though. And that's the part that's amazing to me is that that has happened in the NFL. I just gave you the excuses for why it probably happened.

That still doesn't mean it's usually going to happen. Yeah. Yeah. And that's why quarterback is not only the toughest position. to play in the NFL, but the toughest position to evaluate. Because there's just, there's so many layers here. There's so many things you have to understand, you know, scouts have a hard job, trying to not just watch the film and understand the talent, but dissect the person and just

get a better sense for, you know, it's one thing to see the toughness on the field, but the mentality, that's, it's really tough. And it does, especially for these young players who are not done, you know, devised developing emotionally and things like that. So, yeah, it really is tough. And anyone's saying that, oh, we saw this in college and it was obvious. And I mean, come on. No.

His, at Oklahoma, watch the Texas tape. Watch the LSU tape in the semifinals. He, this has not looked like the same Jalen Hertz at all. I mean, watch the Eagles last year. This does not look like the same Jalen Hertz. And all the credit to Hertz for, you know, developing, realizing his false potential. and I mean, it's just, yeah, really, really impressive. So good opening question from David.

All right, I'm going to throw one at you now from Odd Beam at the Real Odd Beam. Can you discuss how many tackles may slide inside at the pro level, looking at the tackle and interior offensive line class and how they differ in depth? How could that be balanced a bit down the stretch? So this is a good question. I think a lot of prospects apply to this one. And I have asked you this jokingly a few times over the years because I just laugh when I read draft coverage and they talk about offensive tackles. It feels like four-fifths of them.

Well, it might slide inside. I'm like, is anyone actually an offensive tackle? Like, how perfect of a human being do you have to be to be to play tackle in the NFL? Because every team has to have at least two. So there's like 64 jobs out there. So there may not be 64 humans walking around that fit the mold, but somebody's, got to play this. But Peter Skoronsky from Northwestern is the one I'm most curious to get your take on, Dane, because he has an arm length that would not suggest that he's an NFL offensive tackle,

but you watch him mall people and you say, okay, this guy will be successful on an NFL offensive line. It's just a matter of where do you deploy him. Yeah, can we debunk the catch-all? Oh, he's not long. He doesn't have the arm length. Okay, well, just moving to guard. You know, It's just that simple. You know, it's not like there's any more challenges. Oh, oh, you're going to be facing 320 pound defense of tackles that are an inch away from your face. Quickness may matter slightly. Exactly.

So it is the same thing with like, oh, a corner that ran a four or five five. All right. To move to safety. He'll be fine. It's not quite that simple. But with Skoronski, he's one of those guys that I think has true five position versatility. And that's not, you can't say that about every. player. I think we can say that about Peter Skoronsky. Everything about his game, it translates

really well, except he's just, he's not the longest player. But the way that, the way he processes the game, the quickness that he plays with, I still give him a chance to stick a tackle. But because he's going to be, I'm told, under 32 and a half inch arms, which obviously big red flag, you know, for a lot of teams, if you're not at least 33, it's an automatic move. They're not even going to entertain the notion of you staying outside of tackle. But with Skronsky, his ability to reposition his hands and feet and his eyes, mid-engagement, is just so, so impressive. Everything that he does is quick, mentally, physically, the way he can handle stunts,

the way he could sit down with his anchor, even when rushers are able to get into his chest. He just processes everything extremely well. He's a big-time finisher, controlled feet. there's a lot to like about Skronsky and how his game's going to translate no matter what. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes anywhere between pick three and pick 20. Any of those would not surprise me because he's going to get dinged from a lot of teams

because of the length, and not every team's going to be interested in drafting a guard in the top 8 to 10 picks, but this is still, you know, one of the players that you look at and say he's going to be a long-time pro. It's just a matter of, you know, what position you see him playing. Aside from him, our guy, Cody Mock from North Dakota State, one of our favorite players in the draft.

By the way, they're still playing football in North Dakota State and South Dakota State in the FCS Championship down there in Frisco, Texas. That'll be a fun one. The first weekend January are coming up. So something to look forward to. We see him. You can see Tucker Kraft, a tight end. So a couple NFL prospects. The fullback from North Dakota State as well.

Yeah, he's hurt. I don't know if he's going to be back by then or not. Oh, that's right. But, yeah, but I mean, it's with Mock and Kraft, that might be the two, first two small school players drafted. So a reason to check out the FCS championship game. But Mock's another guy. He's probably going to come in under 33 inches in terms of arm length.

And that's going to be a problem. And so, and I wish he was bigger and a little more stout in his lower body. He just doesn't have ideal sand in his pants. And so, you know, but I do really like his hands. That's Dane's way of saying his ass ain't big enough. Yes. That doesn't have the bubble that ideally you want. But he resets so easily versus power.

So even though, you know, you not having, you know, that lower body that you look for, a move inside might be detrimental, but because he does reset so well versus power, I do think he could play guard at a high level. And the Senior Bowl, that'll be, you know, no Senior Bowl for Peter Skoronsky, but Cody Mock will be at the Senior Bowl. And so it'll be interesting. Do they give him reps both at tackle and guard or maybe, you know, try him at tackle.

And so that'll be interesting to see what they do with him. A guy that I think about when I hear that question is Isaiah Wynn, who when he was at George, Georgia, people are like, why doesn't Georgia move him inside the guard? This guy's only 6-3. You got Isaiah Wilson on the roster. Like, what are you even doing here? Isaiah wins still playing tackle in the NFL, by the way. Still. He is. He is. Yeah. And we see these guys every year. I think two other ones that we'll hear about this year, Syracuse's Matthew Bergeron, who is an outstanding run blocker.

But there are some issues in pass pro. And that's why I think the top 50 talk's a little rich. I see him somewhere in day two. I think it's the right value because his run. Unblocking is so good, but I think if you move him inside the guard, that might be the way to get the most out of him. And then Maryland's Jalen Duncan, who there's plenty of love out there with him. Yeah. Could go as high as the second round. Now, personally, I don't see it. I have a lot of issues with Jalen Duncan. I don't even know if I could take him top 100.

The athletic tools are there, but constant issues of technique and balance. It's just really concerning for me, especially when you're talking about a four-year starter. So regardless of position, tackle or guard, you know, I've got those questions, but I do think maybe a move inside to more of a zone-based scheme might be his best chance of success at the next level. So we got a question from at Texans UK. And sorry, at Texans UK 99. So their screen name is Bryce season because they're waiting for Bryce Young to get picked by the Texans. But this is more about their other fandom in the.

in the Twitter handle. If Will Levis ended up going early in the draft, would he be ready to play early or would he need to sit? Ready or not, I think we'll see him on the field as a rookie. And obviously it depends where he lands, right? You know, if he goes to Carolina, we'll probably see him next September. If he goes to Detroit, you know, Jared Goff is still presumably the starter. Levis would not be rushed under the field in that situation.

So landing spot does matter. But this brings up an interesting philosophical way of looking at the quarterback position. Because in the past, I think with unrefined quarterbacks, we would always hear, oh, he just needs to sit and learn. Well, you know, for most quarterbacks, they learn by getting reps, being on the field, not just studying a playbook, right? And so with a quarterback like Levis, who has physical traits, has mental toughness, I think he can work through things. if a team is willing to be patient. You know, use that mobility, use his legs to help things. This is what we, you know, we just got done talking about Jalen Hertz.

I do think that Will Levis has some of, you know, that toughness, both mentally and physically, that he can work through some of those issues. So most young quarterbacks, they're going to get better. Not all. Some guys are what they are. But with Levis, I think that there is upside there. And it's hard to quantify, obviously. but he has those intangibles that if he needs to handle disappointment early in his career,

I think he can. The coaches rave about how super competitive that he is, how he's not afraid to fail. You know, football is really important to him. So when you factor in the intelligence, the toughness, to me, I understand that not everyone's been wowed by him. But, you know what, this is a guy that, and look, I get quarterback wins is a hotly debated thing. But you know what, like it or not, it's a stat. Okay. And it's, to me, quarterback wins and losses as a starter has no more or less relevance than completion percentage.

Because a lot of things matter, you know, in terms of, you know, for that thing, for that stat to come up. Now, just like every stat, it's flawed, you need contacts, everything else. But you know what? Will Levis is 17 and 7 as a starter at Kentucky. That's not easy to do, you know? And so I think that you've got to give them credit for that. I do think that with all the everything that he has to offer, I 100% understand why he's going to be drafted in the top half for round one.

And I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if he's drafted top five because of what he could be and with all the talent that he has. Yeah, it is such an interesting one. And we talked about Jalen Hertz and the ground floor being the intangibles. And it's a good cost of admission. Like if you're going to pick something to base everything on or to start with, you start with those because you can build on it. And obviously Will Levis has the physical tools as well.

You just don't know if he can put them all together in the right package. Now, you've seen him be effective with an NFL offensive coordinator who actually may be a Kentucky offensive coordinator again. The word is that Liam Cohen is headed back to Lexington to be Kentucky's offensive coordinator again. So you've seen him in that kind of offense, the offense that everybody. in the NFL wants to run, and you've seen him be effective. So that's, I think, what you've got going for it.

I just, I still don't know if it's all going to come together for him. This is the hard part with QBs is, realistically, maybe one or two of the guys are going to work out. And it may not be any of the ones that we're thinking. Like, the year that Dak Prescott got drafted, we were not talking about Dak Prescott very much heading into the draft. Not like this. Not as a pro ball type player, no. Yeah.

And Jalen Hertz. We were like, oh, we'll see where Jalen Hertz winds up. But we were not talking about him being a top quarterback in the draft. It just wasn't part of it. So it's a lot. Chuck Closeman wrote a really interesting thing about this where he compared it to teachers. You can take all the classes in college and you can do student teaching. But until you stand in front of a classroom by yourself,

you just never know how good of a teacher you're going to be. And it's the same thing with an NFL quarterback. And we see it going from high school to college, but it's more pronounced going from college of the NFL. Until you try playing quarterback in the NFL, you truly have no idea how good somebody's going to be. And it's a crapshoot. It is.

It is. It is. And again, there's so many variables that help figure out what this player is going to be. So it really is fascinating to talk about. And look, I have had my fair share of misses. You know, like I did not see Patrick Mahomes becoming Patrick Mahomes.

I was a little higher on Mitchell Trubisky than most in that. I mean, so trust me, I have had my fair share of misses when it comes to these quarterbacks. I am by no means an expert at this. I don't think there is such a thing. I mean, the smartest people in the NFL in terms of. of scouting and evaluation, they've got some big Ls on their resume when it comes to quarterbacks just because it's, like you said, it's a crapshoot. You know, it's just funny how some guys, they could luck into Peyton Manning and other guys

just, they don't kid on those guys and they're looked at as bad GMs because they couldn't find that quarterback. I don't know that it was luck. Well, they, the Colts had to be really bad the year before. And yeah, I, I know, I, I know, right. Ryan Leaf. I've worked a lot with Ryan Leif over the years on the radio. And Ryan will be the first to tell you if you had interviewed Ryan, you wouldn't have drafted him either. He was as shocked as the rest of us that the Charter's picked in number two. Oh, no. Well, I'm just saying like, okay, Bill Pulling, for example. He's in the Hall of Fame, I believe. Yeah. So, okay, if you don't have that number one pick, say, you know, you just win one more game or two more games the year before and you have the number two pick. Is Bill Pullian in the year? in the Hall of Fame? Probably not.

You know, like, it's just, exactly. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of luck to get that right quarterback. And, you know, it doesn't always work out like that. But, yeah, it's, it's funny how, okay, you know, we're talking about how we're talking about how we're talking about these quarterbacks now. A year from now when we're doing this, how are we going to be talking about how these quarterbacks just did as, as rookies, you know, it's just, it's all going to be changed.

And so, yeah, I mean, I have, I have my ideas about how this is going to go. Like, sure. I'm saying if you're going to pick from these guys and you feel like he has to start next year, take Bryce Young because he's the best at football, the intangible part, the how good of a teammate is he, how confident are you in him? Like, does he exude confidence? Does he feel like he has everything under control? Like, of these people, he's got that in spades. Yeah. Jake Hainer might end up being an NFL starter at this draft.

Like, he's another guy. I feel like he's always got it under control. I'm a big Jake Hainer fan. I would be pounding the table for Jake Hainer. You know, probably, I doubt he goes top 100. But once we get to day three, I don't care. Get him on my team. I don't care where you have to take him.

I mean, he is kind of, he's the Mountain West Conference version of Bryce Young with the way. he can, the instincts, the way he can negotiate the pocket, the way, the toughness, the accuracy. I mean, Jayhander does not get enough love. You're describing Brock Purdy last year. Now, he was in the Big 12. He played a higher level competition in college. But that was Brock Purdy.

The guy the team loved to play for, the guy, all of that. Now, he took some risks. And you kind of, you wanted to know, well, is he doing this because he feels like he's got to carry the team on his back? or, you know, does he, because they were at a talent deficit almost every game they played at Iowa State. So now he's on the 49ers where guess what? They have a talent advantage over almost everybody they play. And it looks like he's not doing anything crazy because he doesn't have to. Right, right.

And to your point about the stage not being too big, I mean, Brock Purdy, that's exactly that. And what you said earlier about, you know, Jalen Hertz and all the different offensive coordinators that he had. with Will Levis. He's had, the last three, four years, he's had three or four different offensive coordinators. So that plays a part as well into his evaluation. So, yeah, really, really fascinating topic. So let's move off that question. All right. But let's do with the quarterbacks. Okay. So this is from AP. Thoughts on the Giants Drafting Anthony Richardson. So part of his question. So they signed Tyrod Taylor as a backup slug. and he's under contract next season.

So Richardson wouldn't have to start right away. You know, we're not sure what's going to happen with Jones. How would Anthony and Richardson fit the Dable scheme? So look, you're, you know, you're a Gainesville guy. You know, you're very, you're very familiar with Anthony Richardson. How would you answer this question for the Giants? I don't think Brian Dable would take him. That's what I think.

Now, where they slot in right now, it depends on how they finish the season, because they could be in the mid-20s, which if you're going to take a flyer on a person like Anthony Richardson, that's kind of where you might have to do it, just because the traits are off the charts. The athletic traits, again, off the charts. Like, Will Levis is an impressive human being

in terms of arm strength, speed, all that stuff. Anthony Richardson is going to blow him away physically and everybody else physically. Like the only other person in the NFL right now physically who matches up with him is maybe Josh Allen. So this is why everyone is so conflicted about Anthony Richardson. But I will say the Giants just spent four years with a quarterback who despite tremendous physical gifts, did not drag his college offense to huge success. And Daniel Jones actually had more experience

as a starter at Duke and a well-respected coacher of Mannings and David Cutcliffe. Anthony Richardson had one year as a college starter. He did not set the world on fire. In an offense that, by the way, a guy named Levi Lewis, who you've probably never heard of,

torched people in the year before. Now, granted, different, level of competition because Levi Louis, Louisiana, Lafayette, Anthony Richardson at Florida, play against SEC defenses. But this is, and not to bring another sport into this, but this is how I feel like in the NBA when they take a guy first overall who didn't get his team to the NCAA tournament, like, you should be able to drag your team. If you're the best player in the NBA draft, you should be able to drag your college team to be the 34th best at large team. that's non-negotiable.

If you're going to be a first-round NFL quarterback with expectations to start within a year or two, you'd better have a fantastic offense. You better put up numbers. Daniel Jones didn't put up those kind of numbers at Duke. Anthony Richardson didn't put up those kind of numbers at Florida. That's my problem with that. And that's why I think Brian Dable would shy away.

So, yeah, this is interesting. Okay, this is my take on it. obviously, Brian Dable is going to have the most important opinion in what the Giants do at the quarterback position this offseason. My early guess is they figure out a way to keep Daniel Jones in the mix. Maybe that's the franchise tag. Maybe that's a short-term deal. I'm not sure. The franchise tag gets a little tricky because Sequin, he's hitting for agency too.

So we'll see what the Giants do there on the offense in that backfield. But the Giants, I mean, look, they're in the playoffs right now. You know, they, there's probably a better chance that they upgrade a receiver or, you know, imagine if they had one really good receiver. Imagine. Right. So I'm not, I'm just not sold that they would invest a first round pick into a volatile quarterback prospect, which probably means a step back in 2023. But with that said, let's play devil's advocate a little bit. Brian Daibble has said, you know, especially after some of these losses, how there are a handful of explosive.

of plays that they missed for one reason or another. And remember who was his quarterback last season? Josh Allen. So would he go searching for his own Allen or does he think Jones is good enough? Talk about Brian Dable. Well, if you're Brian Dable, you also know that Josh Allen didn't become Josh Allen until they traded for Stefan Diggs. Right.

Yeah, sure. That's a big part of it. And so I think when you look at the fit, Dable, he believes in building the offense around the quarterback. So to your point, you know, building what is going to be the strong points of that quarterback and surrounding him with the personnel and the play calling. So in just studying the Giants offense this season, Dable loves to create one-on-one matchups.

And then he trusts the quarterback to make the right read. So plenty of, we see a lot of play action, a lot of. rub routes, finding ways to get guys open. But it's still in the quarterback to identify where the pressure's coming from, nowhere to go with the football. And that's something that, you know, we saw a lot when Daibble was in Buffalo and his willingness to tap into Allen's mobility in all the ways that he can stress the defense. So spread option, two-back looks, designed runs.

You know, we'd see that a lot. So if you pair Richardson with Daible, I have no doubt you'd see a lot of those quarterback run packages as well. So it's an interesting way to look at it. I still think they don't go that direction. They stick with Daniel Jones. But I can understand why at least, you know, the fans of the Giants, their minds would go there. Here's the other piece of Josh Allen that I don't think people understand.

So I did a thing when Josh was going into his last year at Wisconsin. This was at Wyoming, excuse me. This was this was his spring break before his last season. and he and a bunch of other college quarterbacks were working out with George Whitfield, who's a quarterback trainer based in San Diego. And George would bring in former NFL offensive coordinators to help teach these guys how to set protections and do some things that maybe their college offenses didn't ask them to do. And I remember sitting in that classroom and there's a former NFL offense coordinator on the board

asking these guys questions, showing them how this is a six-man. This is how you turn it here. This is a five minutes. How you turn it here. Josh, because the offense he played in for Craig Bull at Wyoming with Brent Vegan as his offensive coordinator, already knew how to do all of this stuff. There was no learning curve whatsoever with that. Every other quarterback who was there was learning a foreign language at the time.

So Anthony has not been in his offenses. Now, Dan Mullen did ask his quarterbacks to do a lot with protection. So he's had to do it a little bit. but it's not the same thing as what you're going to get asked to do at the NFL level. Alan was very ahead of his peers in that aspect. That was not something he had to learn when he came into the league, which is unusual because most quarterbacks now do. So again, there's so many reasons Josh Allen's a unicorn,

and comparing another guy to Josh Allen is unfair to the other guy, but that's yet another one. So. Yeah. No, that's a great point. And that's just another layer that you have to consider when talking about these quarterback prospects and, you know, when to draft them and their trajectory at the next level. So let's move on to a question from Joe. This is one I really loved.

Traits versus production is a constant debate. To success lean one way or the other relative to certain positions, tight in being most obviously tied to traits. What about the others? QB, corner. edge, et cetera. So which position should you be leaning more on traits and which position should be leaning more on production? I don't care what position we're talking about.

Traits are always going to be more important than production. Now, that's not the same thing as saying production doesn't matter. It's saying that traits translate much more than stats. It's a simple fact that college football and the NFL are two very different sports. Obviously, you want your players to have both. You know, you want prospects to have both the high-end traits and, you know, the production you can fall back on from college. But production tells me how good a player was in college. Traits help tell me how good he could be in the NFL.

Now, with that said, I think there are definitely some benchmarks that, you know, I look for at different positions when it comes to productions and stats. For example, pass rusher. I want to see pressure numbers. Ideally, those are sacks. So if you don't have at least 10, 12 sacks in your career, that's a red flag. And you need to go understand the why. A guy like Calabion Chase on when he was coming out of LSU who would flash, but he wasn't a consistent sat guy. And so for the Jaguars, he's really struggled to catch on.

And, you know, it's something that maybe, you know, in hindsight, you say, okay, well, he wasn't a big sack guy. guy, the pressure, and even going to the advanced numbers, the metrics focusing just on pressure, because disruption is production. It's not just about the sacks. Chase-on wasn't a big pressure guy. And then that's pass-rush, and then I think also when you look at defensive back, over the years, I found that one of the stats that translates the most is ball production, specifically passes defended, past breakups.

So defensive backs who can get their hands on the football, that's something I care about. Trevon Diggs, when he was at Alabama, he got his hands on a lot of footballs. And that has carried over now with the Cowboys. Last year, nobody threw at Soss Gardner last year. And he still managed somehow to have three interceptions. He had at least three interceptions each of his three years for the Bearcats. So, you know, guys that can get their hands on the football, that is something that you definitely take notice on. And again, that carries over.

If guys are getting their hands on the football, that also, you know, factors into your traits and, you know, that side of it. But the production, you know, it's still good to see for these players. So I want to ask you a trivia question. Do you know how many tackles for loss the number one overall pick in the 2022 draft had in a three-year college career? Probably like 15. 13.

Trayvonne Walker had 13 tackles. But as you said, there's, There's reasons. George's theme and the talent around it. Yeah. Yes. So, Aiden Hudson was the example of production and Trayvon Walker was the traits. Exactly.

And it goes, you have to figure out the context. You know, why did he not have better production? Was it, you know, simple, he wasn't getting enough opportunities or was he just, you know, only getting to the quarterback one out of every 12 snaps? pass rush snaps, you know, and so factoring all that in, yeah, it's part of the context. And so, you know, we'll see with Trouin Walker. I think he's definitely had his moments this year. I think he's been, I don't, he hasn't lived up to necessarily being the number one pick.

Now he's been hurt the last few weeks, but I don't think he's been a bust either by any means. So I think he's been, he's been fine so far as a rookie. And I, no reason for Jaguar's fans to be, you know, alarmed about anything. But we'll see how he continues to grow and, you know, develop. these next two, three years. No, I think what we've seen so far suggests he can be the player they projected him as. I don't think there's anything indicating that he's going to be a bust or anything. The problem, if you're them, is you're looking at the Lions and what they're getting out of

Aidan Hutchinson, and it's exactly as advertised. And it's like, oh, well, you know, that was on the statute. And it's a ceiling versus floor argument. Exactly. Yeah. Because is Aidan Hutchinson going to get that much better than what we're seeing this year? Maybe, but probably not a whole lot better where it's a lot better where it's a lot. Ron Walker, you think, okay, he's taking a nice step forward as a rookie.

What's your two going to look like? What's your three going to look like? And so, you know, that's the biggest, you know, debate between those two players. Yeah, I think that makes sense. Okay, so next question here from Eric Decker. Rank the following in terms of effectiveness in evaluating prospects. Prior seasons tape, All-Star slash Senior Bowl experience, and then the combine. So those three factors.

I'd really be interested in. how, you know, you view those three and how you think those three should factor in. Combine last. I just, you're using the combine to check. Is the person the size you thought they were? Do they, do they meet the, whatever your minimum height, weight, speed requirements, strength requirements might be. But just minimum required, do they, do they come above a threshold?

It's when they fall below a threshold in the combine that maybe you start to worry. depending on like if it's a big tenor an SEC player prior season's tape if it's somebody who played in a smaller small school conference or uh you felt like did not always play against the best competition i want to see senior bowl practices i want to see shrine bowl practice and practice over that game i just want to see you know how do they how do they rep against the type of competition that you generally believe is what they're going to see in the NFL That's, yeah, I think you summed it up really well. And this is a great question because we get so caught up in what happens between January and April, right?

And everything that happens during draft season. Now, don't get me wrong, there's value in that, like kind of like what you said with the All-Star Games and Combine, but the foundation for every player's got to be the tape, right? And for most players, it's probably 80% of your grade. And like you said, that changes a little bit from prospect to prospect, depending on level of competition, things like that. You know, seeing those guys in senior ball practices, especially the small schoolers, that's an essential part of the evaluation process. Getting a chance to see, you know, mono-e-mono, pass-rars versus blockers, receivers versus corners, there's nowhere to hide. Let the best man win.

And then, to your point about the combine, and let's, you know, obviously, you know, for certain players, the medicals, the interviews, you know, that's a big part of it at the combine. But like you said, I don't think the combine itself, just what happens, the drills, that alone should not change a players grade. That's not how it works. It's a cross-checking exercise. If you've got an offensive tackle who gets five reps on the bench

and he doesn't have an injury. Right. Okay, I have a lot of questions now. But if it's in a reasonable range, then I'm not worried about it. I'm like, okay, you check the box. Let's go. Yes.

And if you have to go do more work, that's, you know, if you think a player's fast and, you know, he goes out and runs a four, five, a four six, then you don't automatically drop him. You go back to the tape and figure out, okay, is this just how he plays? Was he not having a good day when he ran? And then on the other side,

if you think a guy's fast and then he goes out and runs a four three, you don't bump him up. You already thought he was fast. So why are you bumping him up again. Exactly. Right, exactly. So, yeah, it's a guy. It should be a cross-checking exercise that you use to either confirm what you already thought

or go back and figure out, okay, maybe what did I miss? Now, Al Davis is rolling over in his grave. It's your idea that a 4-3 doesn't bump you up automatically into a higher echelon. But everybody else, I think, believes you. All right, this question is from at Good Job Jared on Twitter. When does it make sense to draft a running back in the first round? I fail to see a scenario where a team is, quote unquote, a running back away and have to spend that premium draft capital on a guy.

This is a great question. I'd love to hear your answer to this. And it's very topical with Bejohn Robinson to Texas running back, the presumed first running back off the board declaring this week officially, which we all thought, but good to see it official. Look, I'll be honest, I have zero problems spending a first round pick on a running back. Now, obviously, context matters. the situation that the running back is going into.

And I'm not saying a team like the Texans or the Panthers should draft a running back in the top 10 when they have so many other needs up and down the roster. But let's not pretend like an impact running back can not make this monumental difference for your offense in a team. And let's not pretend that those guys are easy to find in the fourth or fifth round. Because some of those fourth and fifth rounders hit, people think, oh, well, we can wait. you know, we'll get a guy later. I mean, yeah, you can, but not to the level of what a Bejan Robinson is going to give you. So drafting a running back in the first round, to me, should not be the criticism. The issue is when you give that running back, those fat contracts after the rookie deal.

Right. That's where it's a slippery slope. And that's more of the issue for me, investing such a large cap number in that position. It's just a tough pill to swallow. People get so emotional about that when they've had somebody who's, produced for four or five years and they're like, well, we have to. No, you don't have to. I know it's hard.

Sentimentally, it's tough. You love this person. They've contributed a lot to your team. But if you are smart about it, you're going to let them go and you're going to find your next great running back in the draft. Yeah. And look, a guy like Sequin Barkley, Bejohn Robinson and what they can mean for your offense, that changes your win-loss record.

I mean, that directly influences the scoreboard. So I don't know. Guys saying that Bejohn Robinson's, you can't draft them first round, get out of here, man. I understand why the Texans should not draft Bejon Robinson with a top 10 pick. I get that. But, you know, if you're the Eagles sitting there in the 20s picking, I mean, I know it's a team that traditionally doesn't draft running back in the first round. My God, what he would mean to that offense and how much fun it would be. It's a big difference in what you're drafting, you know, later on.

So let's get a more question here. Can I offer a rule of thumb? Yeah. This is my rule of thumb in terms of drafting running backs in the first round. If the person has elite tailback traits, but you also would be comfortable if you had to play them an entire game as a slot receiver, that's a first round running back. Okay. Yeah.

I mean, I think that, you know, you're talking about your Christian-McCherstrap. Caffreys, your Bejohn Robinson, Zachon, Barclay, guys that, yeah, can really, and that's a big part of it. What do they, can they be productive pass catchers? Yeah, because, you know, I think that makes sense. If they don't have that second part, you can find that person in the fourth round.

So go get them in the fourth round. But if they have that second part, that's what makes them special. That's what makes them a first rounder. Right. Okay. That, that does make sense. Last question here from Steve. Actually, I'm not one follow-up too, but for this question, of the four FBS teams,

who's a draft eligible player that can legitimately improve their stock in these games? So give me one player from the four playoff teams that you think could drastically help themselves with the college football playoffs. I'm going to go with help or hurt because this is a person who's going to be dealing with. Let's get the same one I'm thinking of. The biggest challenge on the other team, it's Keely Ringo from Georgia the corner. Ooh. Yeah, that's a good one. Because you got to play against Marvin Harrison Jr.

Yeah. And let's see how that goes. Because we've seen a lot of good at Keely Ringo. We've seen some risk-taking, some things that happen. A little Stefan Diggs. Not Stefan, Trayvon Diggs to his game where you're going to get some big change. of momentum type plays and then some big change of momentum type plays the other way. So you're now going to be asked to deal with maybe the best receiver in college football,

a guy who could be wide receiver won in the 2024 draft. How do you handle that? And remember what he did in last year's national title game with that interception. That's right. Which, by the way, his coach is saying get down, get down, and he keeps running. Right. And if he gets another pick or two in the playoffs this year, I mean, he's going to be labeled as this, you know, big game player. And so, yeah, no, it's going to be, I'll make a prediction.

Keeley Ringo against Marvin Harrison Jr. Ringo will not get beat deep, but he will give up a lot of things underneath. I think that's going to be a premium for him is because he has the speed and he's going to be really conscious about not getting beat over the top. But because of that, he's going to give up a lot in front of them. And if that happens, Georgia's going to win by a lot. They very well might. And limiting those big plays, and I think that's going to be. And that transfers nicely to my big player,

one player that I think has the most to gain or lose. That's C.J. Straub. He's going to be facing the most talented defense he's probably ever seen in his life against Georgia. And can he put the offense on his shoulders? Can he consistently move the chains, put up points, If he can do that, that would go a long way in the eyes of scouts. I've said it before.

Stroud, I think he's an NFL starter, but he's not this top five walk that a lot of Twitter wants to think that he is. So, you know, there's plenty of doubters around the league. If he can go out there, play at a high level and what's basically going to be a road game, that will absolutely matter with his draft evaluation. So this is a big, big game for CJ Stroud. If CJ Stroud throws for 289 yards and three touchdowns in this game, I think if I'm an NFL team, I feel a lot better about him coming out of this game.

Yeah. If he's getting battered and he completes, you know, 52% of his passes and is making some questionable decisions under pressure, then I feel a little bit differently coming out of this game. So much depends on the pressure and this is fascinating. All of his passing yards this year, only 10% have come of his passing yards. come against pressure. That's a very, very low number. People don't get much pressure.

Their opponents weren't really physically capable of getting pressure until other than Penn State and Michigan. Those are the only defenses that had the talent to get pressure on them. Georgia does. Yeah. Exactly. 100%. That's,

okay, so we'll get out of here with this. Last question. Give me your top three, Chris of Zunevies. Go. Oh, okay. All right. It's a curveball. You were ready for this.

No, I had to do this on a radio show earlier, and I think I messed up the order. Number three, for me, Love Actually. Number two, it's a wonderful life. And number one, not only the greatest Christmas movie all time, the greatest prequel, the greatest third in a series, move over return of the Jedi, National Amplean's Christmas Vacation. Very good. That's a good one. I did see that catch that picture on Twitter that you just tweeted a little bit ago. That was my Halloween costume in 2019, Cousinetti. I still have the bathrobe and the hat.

We could recreate that. No, that's great. I mean, we have two the same. I would go with this wonderful life at three. Christmas vacation would be my two. And then, I mean, home alone. I mean, just when it came out, where I was as a kid, I mean, just it's, some of that's nostalgic.

That's why I don't get why people slam other people's Christmas lists. Half of it's nostalgic. Yeah. It's not the better plot lines. When you saw this movie the first time. Yeah. Exactly. So, yeah, Home Alone is my one.

Well, let me give you, and I will text this to you after the show. There's a mental floss article from 2018 where they interview a doctor to find out exactly what sort of injuries to burglars. I heard about this. Would have sustained had that really happened to them. Kevin is a freaking maniac. They'd be dead, right? Oh, 100%. Yes.

Especially if you include HomeLone. loan two in there with just throwing the bricks off the roof. I mean, it gets, listen, the stakes get higher in New York City. No question about that. They do. They do. No question.

No question. Oh, that is a great way to end it. When we come back next week, we will give you our playoff preview, the prospects you need to watch in the college football playoff, those four teams. Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and TCU. They have a lot of good players. We're going to be talking about them. but enjoy the weekend.

Merry Christmas to everybody. Thank you so much for listening, and we will talk to you again next week. This was the Athletic Football Show.