The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - QB Tiers with Mike Sando - ranking the 2021 starting quarterbacks

Episode Date: July 28, 2021

Mike Sando's annual 'QB Tiers' has been a staple of the NFL beat for years. Now Mike joins our own Robert Mays for full reaction to the piece as it drops. Which QBs deserved to be tier 1? Who has no shot? Where do Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and more fall in 2021?Read the entire piece at theathletic.com/qbtiers for the full tier reveal and let us know what you think! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Very excited about today's show. This is a piece I read every year, have read it every year since it came out. It's a staple for me. It's an off-season staple for me no matter what company is running it. And now it just so happens that I work at the company where it runs.

Mike Sandoz's quarterback tears, and here to talk about it is the man himself, Mike, thank you very much for doing this. I'm really excited to dig into this with you. Oh, me too. This is going to be fun. Rob, appreciate the praise. And it's really, it's two ways on that. Love working with you. You do great work and great podcast. Let's roll. Let's get going on this thing. So I want to talk about the methodology a little bit first for people that are unfamiliar with the piece. If you guys are, I highly encourage you to check it out. Again, this is something I've read every year since it came out. I believe you've been doing it since 2014. Is that right?

Yeah. So just walk me through both how you do it, how you actually gather the information, and then what the tiering system actually means. What does Tier 1 mean? What does Tier 2 mean? Just for people that don't have a huge background with this. Yeah, well, we'll start out with the tiering part.

And so basically a Tier 1 quarterback is the best kind of quarterback, needs the least amount of help, can handle the most difficult situations better than the others. So, you know, historically Aaron Rogers or Patrick Mahomes, those are guys who not only can put up, up great numbers. A lot of guys can do that. We'll talk about that. But, you know, in a pure past situation, okay, suddenly our play action game is not there. We're down in the game. You know, we just have to throw it more than normal. The situation becomes harder. That guy handles it really

well, all the way down to Tier 5, which would mean, hey, I don't even think this guy's a starter. And in between us sort of, if we look at Tier 3, think maybe over the course of his career in Andy Dalton. He's a good pro quarterback. But really, he only won when they were pretty stacked on offense and Sincere and had a good defense. He's a good quarterback in that context. Might go to a Pro Bowl. But we can tell, the people in the league certainly can tell, he's, even if he has a great year where his stats are similar to Mahomes, we don't confuse the two, okay, because we

know the context that goes into that. Methodology-wise is, I will talk to 50 people in the league that are general managers, head coaches, coordinators, position coaches, other front office type people, evaluators, executives, of those types. And I will go through each quarterback with every one of those people individually, privately. And I will say, if you're Coach Mays, I would say, all right, coach, I've got these arranged in alphabetical order by team. We will start with Arizona. Okay. Kyler Murray, where would you put him? What tier? And then Coach Mays would say, you know, I think he made the step to a two. I think he's a two this year. I'm excited about Kyler.

I think he's got a chance to become a one. I mean, he hasn't earned that yet. I think he faded a little late last season. Still have some question marks about him. I mean, I think if you're an undersized player, you have to have that sort of Russell Wilson mentality and work ethic to overcome it and become great. We'll see if he has that. You hear some things left or this or that.

That's the type of discussion we would have. And we might talk for eight minutes on Kyler and Murray, or we may just go quickly to the next one. but I'll do that for 50 different voters. And at the end, I will have each voter's tier for each of the veterans starting quarterbacks. At the end, I'll sort them in the order and we'll go through, hey, Rob, here's your ones. And you might say, you know, so-and-so doesn't belong in that.

I'm going to bump him down to you. So there would be a process of interaction like that with each of the voters that then gives me a great feel for not only what they're voting, but how. And then I will over months meld that all together into a piece that I try to make representative of the group, what they think. There may be a positive and a negative comment in there on a quarterback, right? I try to balance that out, be fair about it, but also be incisive and candid and funny sometimes too. I'm curious, how much of the voter pool stays consistent from year to year? because you'd probably want new voices in there,

but it also probably help to have at least some of the people know what the process is like. Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, if I had to guess year to year, I mean, I would say at least half of it would carry over from one year to the next. But if we went back five years, I would imagine, you know, there's a lot of turnover. I think that's right, though. I think that's exactly how you should do it because you want to probably refresh it with new ideas and new voices and new thoughts every year.

So it's not just the same group and the same group think all the time. Oh, absolutely. Yeah. Now, sometimes a person's ballot tells us as much about them as it does about the quarterbacks. Absolutely. There's different types of people that like different flavors of ice cream. And you can tell what some, sometimes I can get five in and I could maybe thought most of the ballot. You could tell what type of, you know, I already know who the person is. I already know what they do. You might have a feel for what their orientation is. Like sometimes a quarterback coach likes to. is more specific in what type of quarterback he likes. Well, that's why we don't do 30 quarterback coaches. You know, I might have seven of them in this year or something, and it might be five next year. Some of it is who can I get a hold of, right?

But I always try to have seven, eight GMs, five, six head coaches, at least, you know, 10, 15 coordinators. That gives you people that are seeing the whole game plan, right? Or, you know, you're talking to people in front offices who've at least seen the teams as opposed to. to someone who's sort of in their little rabbit hole. Is there a difference between the quarterbacks that an offensive coordinator and a defensive coordinator would rank highly?

A little bit. So defensive coaches, especially as you get further away from the line of scrimmage, and let's face it, a lot of the coordinators have secondary backgrounds are the harshest guys, man, they see right through a guy and just tell them. I figured as much.

They say this guy, this guy ain't shit. He doesn't scare me. I mean, when this guy drops back to pass, I'm worried about can we tackle them. This guy ain't going to slice and dice us in the peer pass game. Even if he's an upper tier guy, they'll say that sort of thing about some good

quarterbacks. They're very brass tacks, you know, very harsh. And I noticed this too. One year, one year I thought, you know what, I'm going to do this with some players. And like those DBs, I mean, they just cut right to the heart, right to the truth about these guys. And that's kind of fun and refreshing. So since 2014, I'm curious. what is the biggest change in the exercise and what has become the biggest challenge?

Because when you look at the list from 2014, it's all pure pocket passers. It starts with Peyton Manning and obviously Drew Breazes is in there and Philip Rivers. I think the complexion of the position has changed. And it makes this exercise a little bit more difficult because you don't know exactly what to do with guys whose skill sets maybe aren't as traditional. Yes, but I still think there's a common thread that ability to handle the pure passers. situation, which means our running game really isn't a factor right now. We have to play two-minute offense and the defense knows what we're going to do, right? Some element of that goes into tier one, and Russell Wilson didn't get to tier one until he showed he could do that, right? Early in his

career, top defense, handing it off all the time. People love them, but they're like, I'm not putting that guy up there with Aaron Rogers, who can hit the gas on his terms and really play that way out of that context. So when you look at somebody and we'll get to, you know, a Lamar He has to be so freaking great in the other things to even get to the top of tier two. He didn't make tier one even as MVP because people know when we get into those situations or you get into a playoff situation where the game plans are better and they're going to make you play a little bit left-handed. It doesn't go as well. He needs the full context of 12 and 13 personnel and the running backs and the incredible scheme. You can't, when we get to just,

January, it looks different. It's harder. Sometimes they score 10 points in a playoff game. That would be rare for Mahomes or the guys who are really up there at the top. So that component is there, but there's no question. I think there's a little bit more of a dual threat ability in those guys at the top. You know, certainly Mahomes, certainly Wilson, even Rogers, you know, not as much anymore, but he's somebody you're worried about the second play, right? I think that, you know, Deshaun Watson, he makes top tier. He makes top tier. He's, even Rogers, you know, not as much anymore. But he's like he's somebody, you're worried about the second play, right? I think that, you know, you know, Deshaun He barely made it in there because he's not quite those guys at the top. Hasn't proven it to the same degree. But there is certainly an element of being able to beat you more than one ways that Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, right? Those guys who were sort of the standard bears of tier one in 2014 can't do. And that may have started a little bit with Andrew Luck. You know, I think Andrew Luck was tier one earlier than people thought.

He was definitely the one that jumped out when I was looking at those early tier ones of guys who moved a little bit. He was the all-lier for sure. There's more guys like that now. You know what I mean? There's just more guys who, it's an important part. I think teams have gotten better about using the full skill set and not just saying, this is my offense.

This is my offense. If you can't run it, you're out. I think that was a little bit more of the mentality 15 years ago. I totally agree. So let's stick with the guys at the top. There are two guys that were unanimous tier one vote getters. And it was Rogers and Patrick Mahomes. Rogers only had 46 tier 1 votes in 2020,

but still pretty good. I will say this. Quarterback tiers has always believed in Aaron Rogers. Even if there was some wavering belief from the general public or from a subsect of football writers, the tiers always believed that Aaron Rogers was as high as you could pretty much get. I believe he was tied for first in six of the first seven years you did this. Last year was the first time he wasn't at least tied for first.

And he was still third. And now I think last season was a vindication for the way the quarterback tiers sees Aaron Rogers. Yeah, you know, it was funny. So I had these conversations with people. I'm like, hey, look, their production, if you just look at their offense, it wasn't as good, you know, for a couple of years there. And yet here, Rogers now, he's a one. And so it actually led to us. It's so funny to me.

But it was the same way. That's how I see it. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So, but I didn't stop there because like, I don't want. people just, if people are just saying he's a one and not looking at the games, then we're not doing a good exercise here, but that's not what people are doing. So it actually led to a series of stories for me. I really pressed to one of my guys who was really adamant about this. I was like, well, let's watch some games then. You need to tell me what we're talking about, right?

That's a great response. It's a perfect way to do it. So it came up with this concept that I did before last season. And it was the truth about Aaron Roger's stats. And what we did was we charted every one of his incomplete passes. And we ended up doing it for 2014, his MVP year, 2019 when people thought Aaron Rogers isn't the same. And 2020, by the end of the year, we did it again. We went back and did it. And a missed opportunity is what we were looking for. And that means not necessarily a drop, the ball bounces off two hands or goes through the hands and hits the numbers, but it's a play that a pro receiver makes. Okay. So, and the coach then has the nuance of, well, slowed down in his drought there. Watch him here.

Rogers puts the ball right there. So it sort of fed into this idea that wasn't the case in 2020 because his receivers played really well, that these guys were playing unusually poorly. And that was where that narrative was happening of you got to get weapons for Rogers, which this year wasn't an issue. But we charted the number of quote unquote missed opportunities in 2019. It was unbelievable. It was like two or three times as many as in 2014 and last season.

So the case was made basically that, well, yes, I think he played a little better last year. I do. I think like on some of the shorter stuff, you could see there were just sometimes he dirted balls a couple years ago. It was like he was just a little casual maybe on the shorter stuff I thought. I'm not a coach. That was just what I thought watching him. But there's a million other plays where he's making the same throws. You know, he's, I'll give an example, 2019.

I think they're playing at Chicago early in the year. Rogers rolls right. guys are chasing them. And he's outside the numbers on the right side at about the 50 yard line. And he throws the ball to like the five yard line across the other hatches. And it just hits Jimmy Graham in the face, hits him in the hands and drops. It's one of the great throws you're ever going to see. No one can do it.

It's incomplete. It hurt Roger's EPA. His stats weren't as good. Well, last year they're making plays for him. Those guys played great. And so what changed the most? you know, Rogers probably changed some. I mean, he probably played a little better.

But the quarterback tiers folks would say, no, no, Roger's been fine the whole time. If you have an unusually good or bad supporting cast around you, it can change what the numbers look like and what things look like, right? I also think that there was probably a feeling around the league that he was a little bit disengaged near the end of the McCarthy era where I think a lot of the guys in the locker room were a little bit disengaged. And I also think that when you talk to coaches around the league about him,

It's always funny talking to offensive coaches and how they see certain offenses and certain quarterbacks because they'll talk about the chiefs and just be like, well, we can't do that stuff. Like there are just elements of that offense we just can't do because of what Mahomes is. And there are elements of the Packers offense, like the RPO game, for instance, right? Like if you look at the RPO aspect of the Packers offense and compare it to the other offenses in that tree, it's completely different. The way, the control that he has, the autonomy that he has, the imprint that he has on the offense, is entirely different.

Guys in the league know that. When they're watching the Packers play, they see his thumbprints all over what they're doing, even if it's the Shanahan offense that Michael Flore or Matt LaFlefure brought with him. So I think that those are kind of the layers when you start talking to people that you start to understand and appreciate a little bit more and can't really understand looking at a box score. Absolutely.

I mean, Aaron Rogers is controlling when they're calling timeouts or the nuances of the offense. I'll give there's a funny one if you watch. When they run the ball and when they don't. The running game success is in part because he's deciding when to hand the ball off and went to run the ball. Absolutely. And he's completely aware of every aspect of the game that's going on. He can manage a game better than coaches. Okay.

So I'll give you an example. I think it was maybe in Lafleur's first year. I think they might have been playing Carolina at Lambeau Field. They're off to the side with Lafleur. And the floor is buried in his play sheet, right? I mean, here's Lafleur like this. He's trying to get the right play. Well, Rogers is watching everything.

The play clock's going to, the clock's going to expire. So Rogers is sitting there. He's watching coach. And then Rogers chops the time out. I mean, Justin Herbert's not doing that. He doesn't even know. He's not even authorized to do that. I'm not picking on Justin Herbert.

But you know what I mean? Rogers is so in charge of everything. Very few people are authorized to do that. And it really speaks to the control that he has 100%. Absolutely. And that's why they get into these things where, you know, he can't help himself after the game on the play call when they, you know, when they don't go for it or whatever on fourth down.

I mean, he's so smart and so in charge of all of this that he has not only his own knowledge of what to do, he has his own opinions of what we should be doing. And that's where you get the smirks and the comments. When you're talking to people about Mahomes, is the conversation like 10 seconds long? Do you even need to get into it? Yes, it can be. So I learned this a little bit as I do go on this. It's like, don't let that happen because you'll get to the end of your research.

You're like, should I never talk. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in league. I never talked to anybody about him because it's so true. So I'll ask people like, all right, Mahomes. What do you appreciate most about Mahomes? That's it though. There's no debate. There's no tension.

It's why is he so great is really the only question to ask. Yeah, absolutely. And so I think people feel we'll talk about him. But, you know, his protection started with not this Super Bowl, but the Super Bowl before, you know, protection really affected him. It's amazing he's been able to play the way he's. he has. But if that gets fixed, I mean, he can be better next year. What aspects of his game do you think people are appreciating more? Are there a little tiny nuances that you think have came up in

your conversations more this year than they might have even last year? Oh, yeah. I know. I think he's definitely his ability to read the defenses and have a little bit more of that Rogers kind of moxie, right? That just comes with experience. You can't. Yeah. His talent's undeniable. But I think he's definitely grown in that area. People didn't know what his capabilities would be a long, lines, right? Just looking at his offense and college and all of that. So there's no question. I think as I think for some people, he's already ahead of Rogers, but I think that distance is only going to grow as he gets the seasoning and can sort of run the whole show, right? And is allowed to run the whole show the way Rogers does. Rogers does it almost arrogantly, right? And I think Mahomes is

getting there, but you're just younger. It takes so much time. Yeah. I mean, even like I've, again, I've mentioned this in the last couple shows we've done. I just finished. Jeff Duncan's book about Breeze and Peyton and just taught all of the examples about how they would build on stuff and how in 2006 the offense looked so different than it eventually looked in 2020, not even schematically, but just the ways they could talk about it, the communication, how streamlined it was. Mahomes is still really young in quarterback life. You know, by the time Rogers got to the final years of McCarthy, think about how many

years he had played in that system. Think about how long Breeze and Peyton had played with one another. Think about how long Tom Brady had been in that. offensive scheme and how much you can build on stuff. We're still in like your three and four of Patrick Mahomes doing this, which is remarkable. I mean, it's really, really impressive. And he will need to do that more because guess what? They're not going to have Tyree Kill and Travis Kelsey the whole time.

You're not going to be. Those are unique players, especially Tyree Kill. So there will be a shift of different types of players that go through there and we'll get to see him do it anyway. I know. And I'm excited about that. Just like what the various stages of his career look like. and how he adapts to that.

Because that's what great quarterbacks do. That's what makes great quarterbacks is when you can have these little pockets of their career that you can imagine and the little differences between them. And I'm sure we'll have that with him. One guy who's had a ton of those is Russell Wilson. I mean, it feels like he's had six different careers. And last year, he was unanimously tier one.

I think he had all tier one votes. This year, only 46 of them. He and Rogers flipped a little bit. What did you see when your conversation, conversations about Russell Wilson, where were the doubts creeping in? What were the reasons that he wasn't that unanimous tier one guy this year? Yeah, he actually got 10 tier two votes. It was 40. Oh, I'm sorry. 40 for him and 10. But Wilson, some people who faced him thought they started to see a little bit of a decline in his ability to make the great play consistently. And, you know, I think if you look at him, he probably, he's probably a little bit heavier from just trying to be durable, right? And, and prolong his. career. And I think when you start talking about your protection and you start worried about getting hit, you've become a different player. And so there was a little bit of fear of that among some people who faced him or saw him late last season. And it's not a huge fear. I mean, just a few people

and they were people who had faced him thought they saw a little bit of a difference in him. And we'll see this year, you know, I still would put him in tier one. But I think he was, there's a difference between unanimous and being able to pick a few nits here or being able to see something that looks a little different. And let's face it, the second half of last year was hard for him. And maybe the scheme or whatever,

there's utter factors for that. But it wasn't the same. They played good defenses too. I mean, that's one thing people don't always take into account was they played a really run of really good defenses. They were playing NFC East teams. So they were getting Washington. You know, the Giants could make it look tough for you sometimes.

That was the best game the Giants played on defense. defense last year. I think that a huge portion of the excitement around the Giants defense, at least from my side, I think from other people, too, is what they did against the Cocks in that game last year. I think it was their best performance. And also, they played the NFC West. You have to play against the Rams and the Niners twice, both of whom have very good defenses. And I think both of whom had really good plans for how to deal with that Seattle offense last year. So no, no doubt. And you look in that division. I think this is one of the reasons there, they went with Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator, you know, there's Kyle Shannon and Sean McVeigh in the in the division.

You're going against the high end of scheming, right? So Seattle maybe felt, hey, we got to, we got to make sure we're a little more fine-tuned. I'll be really curious where Wilson shakes out after this year. I think that we're going to talk a lot about this on the show over the next month or so, but some of the new play call or some of the new offenses, what they might look like, how he fits into that scheme and what aspects of that Rams offense are going to come with Shane Waldron. And I think that's a huge question because we know the talent on that offense, right? We know how talented Russell Wilson is. We know the receiving talent that they have.

How does that mesh with the way they want to play this year? To me is a really important question. Absolutely. I mean, the quarterback movement stuff should be good. I mean, right? The boots and those sorts of things he should be perfect for. It seems to fit him. I know Nate has said that consistently that he just thinks play action heavy offense,

getting him outside of the pocket where he can see a little bit. Things are a little bit more defined. It does make a ton of sense. Totally agree. Now we'll just have to see what it looks like in practice. So sticking in Tier 1, if last year gave people some pause about Russell Wilson, the opposite happened with Tom Brady. I mean, you look at it last year.

He only had 22 Tier 1 votes last year. Now he's closer to unanimous Tier 1 than he is to Tier 2 with the way that the voting broke down. It makes perfect sense to me because I think in a lot of ways, last year is the most impressive season Tom Brady's had, I don't know, I mean, close to a decade when you consider the team change, everything else, and how well he played, especially down the second half of the season. I am not surprised at all that it was this tilted toward all of those tier one votes and him being back in that top, top echelon.

I know, you know, people sort of anticipate the end, you know, with, it was a tough last year in New England. And we know that there were issues there, right? They're, the, what was around them wasn't good. I mean, that that was a fact. But you just know at a certain point, I mean, he's not going to play when he's 60, right? So you just say that now. Yeah, exactly.

But he's changing, you know, I think the uncertain, what happened the last year of New England and then changing. And even now, even now people, some of the people that give him a one sort of almost feel like there's a high too because they do think, they know they had a great defense there. They feel like he needs a little bit more of a run game balance than he used to that you wouldn't want to just to. that you wouldn't want to just have him have it on his shoulders all the time as much. But he did. He did last year, though. That's what's so impressive is that I think if we're talking about this and you're talking about what the tier system means where this is a guy who can carry it.

And that's exactly what he showed last year is that he could walk into a situation. He had the highest average depth of target in the NFL last season and was getting rid of the ball in like 2.4 seven seconds. The degree of difficulty in that offense is immensely high. And for him to pull it off, that high wire act in his first season with, I know the talent is very good on that offense. I know. But I still think that what he did is insane. I think it's underappreciated. I think people don't realize how freaking hard it is to win a Super Bowl, just to win one. I mean, there's great coaches. Andy Reed went like 20 years. And he's the best coach.

All of his guys played, all the quarterbacks for Reed play better than they do for someone else. He's amazing. And he finally wins one when he has Mahomes. For Tom Brady to just show up at a place that

really, they weren't close to winning the Super Bowl. They weren't even in the playoffs. You show up and win the whole thing. And by the way, you played Mahomes in the, I know they had their issues and stuff. But that is really,

hard and impressive to do to just show up somewhere and win the championship? Who does that? I mean, this is, I understand that their defense was really good down the stretch, right? Like, I'll readily admit that. They were the most efficient passing offense in the league over the second half of the season. Tom Brady at age 42 through for 4,600 yards and 40 touchdowns while completing two thirds of his passes. Like, I absolutely see him in a different light now. now than I did going into last season. And maybe that's just, it's human nature. You watch a guy just be so mindlessly great for so long,

and then you see the decline coming and think, this makes sense, right? Like maybe Tom Brady at this stage of his career just isn't that good anymore, and we'll see this Peter out, and maybe he's a little bit better in Tampa, but I still don't think he's the same guy. He was incredible last year. And I think that the voting,

I think the voting indicates that. I think that's exactly, it totally reflects that shift, I think in the same way that me and a lot of other people underwent over the last year watching what Tom Brady did with the box. It sounds silly to think that this was actually greatly enhanced his legacy in our eyes. I totally agree. And it shouldn't have had to, right? It shouldn't have to.

But I just, I think it's just natural to have your eyes glaze over and just be like, ah, you know, it's Tom Brady. It's not interesting to me anymore. And I think last year injected some of that interest back into him for me. What I love about this year in the NFL in general is we have the people changing environments, right? We have Stafford. He's been in Detroit. Well, let's see him with McVeigh. You want to talk about Stafford and he should be Tier 1 or Carson Wentz.

Oh, the Eagles screwed him. Okay. Then go to India and do it. It's like you got to do it now. It's football experiments left and right. I mean, you have these control group situations where it's like, all right, same guy, different environment and I'm very excited to watch all of that. And Brady does that and wins at all. I know. And plays extremely well doing it. This wasn't like 2001 Patriot stuff where he's throwing

the ball 16 times a game. He's slinging it 45 times a game and with high degrees of difficulty. It's bonkers stuff. So let's get to tier two here, but a guy who is very close to tier one. If you look at it, there's a very dramatic cutoff from in tier two. There's only one person who received more than four tier one votes. And that's Josh now, which kind of shows that he is the next possible guy, right? He is the closest one. He's closer to tier one than tier two. He has more tier one votes than the rest of the guys below him combined.

Exactly. So he is very much like the next guy. He is the one on the cusp. So when you were talking to people about Alan, I'm curious about the argument on both sides. Why were there people who thought he belonged in tier one and deserve mention along those guys ahead of him? I think enough people thought he played at a tier one level last season to put him there, but the people who didn't just want to see it another year in light of what came before, right? He was 22nd in 2020 during in the in the tiers. He ranked 22nd. He was

behind Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr. Oh, I know. It's a huge jump. I mean, obviously we We know that. We know he plays it so much better. But when you look at it in those terms, it is stark. And you have to, to get into tier one, I mean, it's sort of like getting into the Hall of Fame or something. You know, you don't just get in usually off of one year. Even when, you know, when Matt Ryan won the MVP, he got close. When Lamar Jackson won the MVP, he got close.

But to actually get in there and have most people say it, you got to do it like again. You got to back it up, not be MVP again. But, you know, Tier 1 is, we should give these definitions anyway. a cheer win quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles peer past situations. He has no real holes in his game. So Josh Allen solved the accuracy hole last year, and maybe that continues.

But if there's still a hole in his game for me, it's in the wild card playoff game, taking an 18-yard sack with the game on the line and fumbling, and your team recovers or else the same narratives are there the whole offseason, right? And then you go out the next week and you score 10 points on Baltimore, right? It's not like you had a, you scored 10 points on offense and you lose by two touchdowns the next week. So there may be a little bit more for him just to validate it, do it again. But I think he's, he made such a spectacular jump. Those quote unquote accuracy gains, right?

If you just measure them loosely and completion percentage at all levels of the field, people are like, all right, I need to see that again because I've never seen that before, you know? Even within the season last year, it felt like that where you have that first month and think, well, there's no way this can be. sustain just because quarterbacks improve, right? They undeniably do. But to be so inaccurate on deep passes in 2019 and then just be lights out for almost the entire season last year, that's really difficult. And I think that it comes back to the conversation we've had about Josh Allen so many times and why I think there will be some mistakes that are made in light of Josh Allen's success

and that we haven't seen a quarterback improve like this. Not in this way. Quarterbacks improve, but to get this much better and this much more accurate in the intermediate area and then in the deep area of the field, just some of the things that he can do, it really is unprecedented in the ways that we've seen him get better specifically. And I think that's why there can be a little bit of dissonance with understanding, all right, how much of this is real, how much of this can sustain, can he get even better? Because I still think people are sorting through and trying to process what's happened with him over the last two years. Absolutely. Like I think most people that I talk to think he's going to have another good year.

But like it wouldn't be shocking if he fell off, right? I mean, it wouldn't be a shock if he played a little bit more like he did in the past. It would be a, but I think it would be a surprise. I think people feel good about him. I tend to agree. I think that if you look at some of the numbers under pressure last year, they weren't like Herberts, obviously. They weren't that dramatically different than what he did in the pocket. But he still, you look at that, watch that offense.

there are a lot of big plays that come just because he's making stuff happen. And that is his skill. He has the physical ability to do that, but it's occasionally hard to rely on that stuff all the time. And I also think that their receiving talent does a lot for them as well, where Diggs is just really, really good. You watch that offense. They're doing some interesting stuff, but the talent of those players really lifts them

in a lot of different ways. And I'm just curious if that's going to be able to continue this year. I have faith that it can because I'm the biggest Stefan Diggs fan there. is and I also think Josh Allen's pretty good. Yeah. I think people are big fans of what Buffalo is doing overall. They've had good continuity there. Dave all stayed there, you know. And so there's a nice just sort of, you know, nurturing of bringing along of him. And maybe that's another reason why, hey, we'll see it. Let's see it again. You know, he's in a pretty good situation. Diggs helped a lot. There wasn't the level of skepticism on him that there has been in the past because of the decision

making. You know, he made a lot of bad decisions before. Now, I wondered if that would come out of this game. And I think it's still always going to be there a little bit. Like I said, the 18-yard sack in a at the end of the wild card playoff game, you can't do that. You can't take an 18-yard sack and fumble the ball. It just can't. Drew Brees doesn't do it.

Rogers doesn't do it. You just can't. And he used to do that 10 times a year and now he did it three times a year or whatever. You know what I mean? It's funny because his game, he's very smart. And I think that's something that people don't really understand if you don't talk to him or talk to people that have worked with him before. and some of the protection stuff that he's able to do and some of the control that he has.

He's an advanced quarterback when it comes to the mental stuff, but then he makes these kind of boneheaded decisions. And it's almost Rivers-esque in the way that when you talk to people about him, they think he's, I mean, Rivers is a genius. It's a different level. But then you have these crushing mistakes that don't seem to align with that sort of football intelligence. Yeah. Think of it like there's, you know, Carson Wentz has that too, where he just can't, you know, he can't help him. sometimes. I think Josh Allen did a better job of helping himself last year. He still has that in him. You know, it's sort of like a- That kept in chaos, Gene is still there for sure.

It's like a boxer who just can't help but just opening up and throwing some haymakers, right? You're going to take one on the chin, but sometimes he's okay with that. Like, he's just going to drop to a knee and hop back up, you know? But when you have more stopping power than pretty much anyone in the world, you tend to believe in that and have a lot of faith in that. And he is as physically talented as pretty much any quarterback we've seen come along. Yep. Let's stick in tier two here with one of Josh Allen's draftmates and another guy like Josh Allen who's looking for an extension here relatively soon. And that's Lamar Jackson. If you look at it, he is squarely in tier two. 38 of his votes went that way. He had 16 tier one votes last year only four this year. And I think that's fascinating. And I think it kind of speaks to where we are with Lamar Jackson because in 2019, he takes a league by Storm, right? He's the most exciting player in the league. He wins the MVP. It feels like there's this paradigm shift in a way of what we might look for at the position. In 2020, the Ravens run into some roadblocks.

Teams figure them out a little bit. They hit some of the same issues that seem to plague the Harbaugh-era Niners with Greg Roman and Colin Capradick near the end of their time there. Now this off-season, you bring in Sammy Watkins, you draft a shot Bateman, and you'd hope that with a little bit more help in the passing game with an entire off-season to maybe expanded a bit in the way they couldn't last year, we see a better version of their passing offense and a better version of Lamar Jackson. It feels like he's kind of hard to pin down right now because of this trajectory and

these little vacillations. And that's why we see him in tier two the way he is at this moment. Yeah. And that's the challenge. You see, most people don't think that adding that receiver firepower will fundamentally change who they are through Greg Roman or Lamar Jackson. So they don't think it's going to be a Josh Allen situation where you add digs and take off. They think the limitations for better or worse are going to be there.

Let's read the definition of Tier 2 because I think it fits Lamar Jackson really well. A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes, but not as consistently. He can handle peer passing situations and doses, which I don't think people think that Lamar can. And or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. There's no question in my mind that he has that, right? He has a hole or two in his game. Now, I think you can see that with Lamar Jackson. it's a little bit of a hole here, overcome by this amazing superpower that he has.

And that would be the debate. Is that so special that he should just be in tier one anyway? When he won MVP, I think more people said, you know what? He doesn't fit your tier one definition exactly, but damn it, this guy's so freaking amazing. And the other areas that I'm putting him there. He's the MVP at the league. What do you want?

They wouldn't be able to do any of this stuff without him. Now that you see it not be quite at the MVP level, and maybe you're saying, okay, It was like, once you succeed and get to a certain level, then people want to, then you're measured against that. You know, when you come in with no expectations and you get to here, it's unbelievable. But now they want to this, okay, well, how come you're not here with Rogers, right? And it's almost an unfair type thing because we should, he's seventh in the league right now. I mean, that's pretty dang good. There's a lot of guys never go higher than that.

That's where I'm sitting with this, is that it's okay to be a really high tier two quarterback for your entire career. Like, your team can win the Super Bowl with you. virtually every single year if you're a high tier two quarterback. And by that definition that you laid out, that's exactly what he is. And at this point, that's okay. Also, he's incredibly young. He's very early in his career. It makes sense for him to have holes in his game.

He works at it. I think he can get a little bit better. So it's not surprising to me at all. I just think that watching where we are on him and watching the conversation change and the expectations and everything else, I think this is a huge year for their offense, not make or break, anything like that. I'm just very excited to watch it and what this stage of him and that passing game looks like

and what this conversation looks like a year from now and next summer. They've won like 75 or 80% of their games when he started. It's not too bad. And they've been top five or 10 on defense and they're a good special team. Those things help. But the offense has played a big role in that. And he's played a huge role in that. And we shouldn't forget that while focusing on why he's not in Tier 1.

That's exactly what you're saying. If you look at it, I mean, I know that people treated as though the sky was falling last year for them offensively. They were still 17th in passing DVOA and 11th in offensive DVOA overall. This wasn't a bad offense. There were some frustrating moments because of the expectations heaped on them. But this is still an objectively good offense that I think can get a little bit better. Yeah. Yep.

Absolutely. I'm anxious to see it too. You know, and we'll see. I mean, I sort of feel like this is where he's going to be. I think that makes total sense. I wouldn't be surprised by that at all. Maybe there's a few more tier one votes next year instead of four, maybe it's eight. But for the most part, he belongs in tier two.

That wouldn't surprise me at all. Stafford got the exact same vote distribution as Lamar. Four tier one votes, 38 tier two votes, eight tier three votes. And so obviously it's been a very Matthew Stafford-centric offseason. He owned the early part of the news cycle with the trade. And when you look at some of the quarterback rankings that have come out, over the last couple months, he's like in the top five in some of these

by virtue of just changing teams. I will say he's a tiny bit higher in the rankings for you this year, but the vote distribution is pretty much the same that it was last year. He seems to be one of those guys that the league has always valued a little bit higher than the general public solely because of how talented he is. No doubt. Trade space.

Every, like all the offensive guys in the league, they just want, man, I wish I could work with them. You know what I mean? It's sort of like if you're a car guy and you've got a Camaro in your garage, but the guy across the street has a Ferrari, you know, you're like, oh, dude, man, if I could drive that Ferrari, I mean, it can unlock. The Camaro's nice, but man, one more notch would be great.

Well, more notch because I am so good, I can get the most out of this thing. This guy doesn't even doing it right. I mean, you can't. It's sitting in the garage the whole time. Yeah, you can't put a turbo on that thing. Let me, you know, whatever. So, yeah, Stafford is like. It's not loved.

I mean, I think everyone agrees that, look, if he was truly a tier one quarterback, they would have won a playoff game during that time just because of the sheer will of it. But the other hand of it, I'm just looking at here, the highest they've ranked on defense and special teams for EPA in his entire career, he's had three seasons when he was the primary starter where they've ranked in the top half of the league. Okay. And they won nine, ten, and eleven games. The rest of the time, they ranked between 17 and 32. and the average was 26.

So it's been unusually bad around him. He's had to overcome more from a winning standpoint. And I think people are now thinking, okay, you're going to go and have a better defense with you and you're going to maybe win a playoff game. Now, that said, I believe, there's a great quote in the piece. What the Rams did is like firing your coach

after you go eight and eight. You better go nine and seven. They won a playoff game last year. I know. That's a really high bar. So are they going to advance and further with Stapford this year? I don't know. How much would you want to bet?

I think their offense will be better. I think their offense will be significantly better and significantly more dynamic at the very at least. I agree. Watching their offense, and we talked about this a little bit with Lindsay yesterday, but bringing him Kevin Carberry from Stanford, I think their running game will look a lot different. I think there'll be more gap scheme runs. I think it'll be more diverse.

The amount of speed they added this offseason. feels like a declaration of intent. It's like, we know that we were not explosive or aggressive enough over the last two years. We need that aspect back to our offense. I think that you're going to see a different version of what they are. And I think that it's going to be successful by virtue of that increased aggression and that explosive element they've lacked over the last couple seasons. I don't necessarily think their team's success will be better, though,

because I don't, their defense last year was the best in the league comfortably. And that is not going to happen this year. And their guy left, Brandon Staley left. He did a great job. Even if he was back, I still don't think it would happen. Just by virtue of math and what we've seen in history, it's very, very hard to sustain that level of success defensively. Now you lose Brandon Staley, you lose John Johnson, you lose Troy Hill. These are not the most important players on that defense, but it still is a lesser unit than it was at the end of last season in a bunch of different ways.

So I think they may be a similar team in terms of success with their records. how far they get in the playoffs, all that, even if their offense to me looks a lot different and is significantly better. What if Detroit had a better offensive line than the Rams and here Stafford is family with Rams? I think they can scheme around that I'm kind of kidding. But I love the move. I mean, just selfishly, we want to see Stafford in a different element.

And with quote unquote, better coaching and better stuff around them. And this removed some of those excuses that aren't, I mean, there are reasons as much as their excuses. But I tend to think that there's a little bit of projection with Stafford in this exercise every year, but especially this year, because if you look at his rankings early in his career, and early in this, not early in his career, but early in this exercise, 14, 15. He was like 12th or 13th. And over the last couple years, he's firmly in the top 10, which there's not really a reason for that. Like, he played much better in 2019. There is a reason. Here's the reason. What do you think the reason is. Here's the reason. Drew Breeze retires. Okay. All right. That's fine. Rivers

retires and Rothesberger goes to tier three. So those are the three guys that would be ahead of him. You're right. That's a good point. And so if they're in there, he's 10th instead of seventh or whatever he is, you know, he's seventh. Right. He's tied with Lamar, right? Yes. He's seven tied with Lamar. So that's sort of what happened is some of our higher tier two guys are gone, you know, and that makes sense. That makes sense. Without really being seen totally. totally differently, but he certainly didn't fall, you know. So the guy right behind him, I think this is another really interesting vote distribution. With Dak Prescott, no quarterback in Tier 2 got more Tier 2 votes than Dak Prescott.

He had fewer Tier 3 votes than last year while playing four and a half games. So it feels like when people, when you ask the question about Doc Prescott in this category, and people got their ballot, they just wrote in Tier 2. Every single person just immediately was like two, two, two. In their minds, Dak Prescott is a tier two quarterback. And what comprises that? What were the things and the inputs that went into guys saying, you know what? He doesn't belong in tier one.

He is firmly in tier two. Yeah, I think he is still overcoming the early career perception of, hey, he had that great line. They ran the ball, all that sort of thing. Then you're coming off. I think that's exactly right. That's the early, so that's the early context. Remember, you overcome too, like Russell Wilson,

did you overcome that all the teams had you in the third round or fourth round or whatever. So there's a little bit of that early in a career. But guys aren't in it as rookies. He's had enough time to come out of that. I think he was potentially trending closer to the tier one. But you throw in a major injury. I mean, you know, there was no reason. But he's still higher than he was last year, only playing four and a half games.

Yes, yes. And certainly his ranking was higher. But, you know, and I'm sure he was higher in his average, I'd have to look. in front of me, but some of those guys that were ahead of him, like, Wence was ahead of him. I thought that was ridiculous last year. It was one spot ahead of him, right? I think Dak was 12 and once was 11th last year. I see Dak is just holding firm with, you know, I think it probably helped them that they looked absolutely horrific after he left the lineup last year. I totally agree. You know, that helped him. I think it's optimism. I think people like

that. I don't think it's a skeptical. You're not a one. I mean, I don't know how you could put them in a one when they've had almost no playoff success, right? A one is going to power. you know a little bit more of that and then he missed the whole almost the whole season you know i think one is would be look who's in the ones now i think you could make a case for him being closer to the john watson but but those other guys the wilson's and the mahomes and rogers i mean i think they're a they're a different level of having done it so i don't think it's any disrespect at all to put him in two i think he's thought of well i think so too i just think it's funny that he doesn't even getting a tier three votes.

Like he is firmly in tier two. And he got a couple scattered ones. But for the most part, he is a tier two quarterback by the people that you pull there. Yeah. And I think for the longest time, like Stafford and Matt Ryan have gotten the most tier two votes. And maybe now that's going to be a deck.

We'll see now because Stafford, Stafford's going to move this year, right? Stafford next year is moving one way or the other. He's inching up or he's coming down because this year. is going to expose some of that. So maybe I can see Dak being, I can see dad. I think Dak will have more tier one votes in a year than he has now. I think they're going to be good.

I 100% agree. I think that his distribution next year looks like Josh Allen's, where it's like 25 and 22 or whatever and it's really, really close. That would not surprise me at all. I think among the tier two quarterbacks, he has the second best chance of moving up to tier one. Because the guy with the best chance is the guy who is a rookie

last year and got four tier one votes. One of my favorite parts about the quarterback tiers every year. This is mostly rooted in Rogers, but I also think that it applies to other people. It often aligns with my own perception of guys, and I think that's all that really matters here is you just want your priors confirm when it comes to exercises like this.

And nowhere is that more true than with Justin Herbert right here. Firmly in tier two, tied for seventh with four tier one votes, the same number as Lamar and Matthew Stafford, were you at all surprised by this type of reaction to Justin Herbert's rookie season? A little bit. I mean, I think he came in a little bit higher than,

not that I think he doesn't deserve to come in this high, but okay, he's only had one year. How many, they didn't win? How many people saw all the Charger games? What did you think of them coming out? I mean, I just thought there could be possibilities for people to make an excuse for, you know, let's just hold off.

Let's let's, you know, he hasn't even played in Airhead Stadium when they had fans. I mean, that's part of it too. I mean, his efficiency last year on 3rd and 7 to 10 was unbelievable on the road. Well, you know, you could find reasons why. No, no, no. Guys were just like one of the great quotes. This is one of my favorite quote of Justin Herbert. What did our illustrious former Stanford, Arizona, and Minnesota head coach say?

Something about crowning their asses? Yes, go ahead and crown his ass. I think he's going to do it again. He's got juice. He's got attitude. He hasn't hit any adversity yet, so we'll see. But the excitement is really high for Justin Herbert. I mean, he sort of showed everything people want to see in a tier one guy to the point that it's really, I think, hurting Tua and this thing, too.

We'll talk about him maybe later. But like, that contrast is, wow. I get it, though. And here's the reason that I get it. If we're looking at by definition, the letter of this stuff, if you look at it, if you look at what a tier one quarterback is or even a tier two quarterback. You want to see a guy succeed and be promising independent of the things around him. And there were a lot of aspects of what the Chargers offense was last year, whether it was

play distribution, offensive line talent, at times some of the receiving talent that they have. They were banged up last year. It was Kenan Allen and whoever else they could throw out there when Eckler and Mike Williams were hurt. And he still looked really good. Even if you have some concerns about third and long efficiency or under pressure efficiency or some other aspects of his game, the talent is so undeniable. And I think that's what you're betting on.

And that's the thing that can stand alone from any of the other supporting qualities, whether it's staff, scheme, receiving, whatever. And that to me is where the excitement in him is rooted. That's why I'm excited about him. So to me, it's not that surprising to see that attitude about him in this moment. I agree. And a lot of this is really, finding what the fault or what is the thing that's going to hold a guy back, right?

And you can't really name it on Herbert. He just has only done it one year. Like, what are you worried about? What can't he do? What do you think is going to hold him back from being a cheer one guy in the future? I don't know that there's really a list of things other than it's one season. That's it. I've heard really promising stuff about what this offseason has looked like for him.

And what he's been in those huddles. and just the offense that they're installing and everything else. This is independent of my own excitement about this team and about him, which is sky high and I will readily admit that. I understand it's a blind spot for me. But even in conversations with people about what he has been in that locker room and for that offense already, it makes me excited about what they might look like. Yeah, I guess the concern is just, you know,

Chargers organization and, you know, the coaching change, that sort of stuff. You're going to be in a new, you know, having a new coordinator who doesn't have this amazing track record. It's sort of like a little bit, if you have a concern on Burrow, it's more about can they do him justice as opposed to what is he going to do for them. And that's,

I think with Herbert, if you're looking for anything as a possible hurdle for him to overcome, it's not really him. It would just be how good are they going to be in the scheme in the game and that stuff with people who aren't as established. I have faith in that. I really do.

I think that you can make excuses for what Joel Lombardi was, was in Detroit. And I think that you can explain it away if you want to. And I've chosen to do that. I think there are a lot of reasons why you could be more excited about his prospects now than you were that first time around with the Lions. All right. Let's stick with last year's draft class because somebody that I think you believe

was ended up a little bit higher than you might have anticipated is Joe Burrow, who is at the bottom of Tier 2 after half of a rookie season. He had 27 Tier 2 votes. Why were you surprised that Burrow ended up this high? the optimism and the love for Joe Burrow was stronger than I thought it would be. Not that I didn't think he was impressive as a rookie, but when you have a catastrophic injury, you're in Cincinnati. It wasn't like you just looked at the stats and were like, wow.

You know what I mean from afar, but people who play with Herbert, for example. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, what did Burrough have 13 touchdowns, five intercept? You know, whatever. It was fine, but it wasn't like unbelievable production and they won all the games. but people who played him and watched him, but especially who played him,

they sort of think they can see a real guy, they can spot a real guy. There's certain things people love about Joe Burrow, like a swagger to him, the way he takes hits and still looking down the field, the way he gets up, the way the team responds to him, which is a part of Josh Allen, too,

the way the team responds to him. Totally. Not everybody has that, right? I mean, I'll put Kirk Cousin's stat line up against anybody, but you don't feel that when you play him, right? And when you play Joe Burrow, people think he's a real guy and are really excited about what he's going to do. They just think, you know, could Cincinnati screw him up, you know?

Possibly, that's probably a better discussion. But one of the guys I quoted in it was like, hey, when we played him, like our guys were coming back to me going, this is a real guy, like the players. We're like, you know, the realness of it. They think he's got something special. So that's why he got off of what did he play, 11 games, 27 votes in tier two. And he would actually be higher. If you look at his average is actually a little bit lower than Derek Carr, who's beneath him.

But the way that I do it is you're in the tier of where you get the most votes. And it's where he should be because he got six fours. No one thinks he's a four. The four definition is a veteran who I don't think I'd want to have start all 16 games. So, you know, Ryan Fitzpatrick a couple years ago or whatever. or not enough information. And so, you know, six times people were like, you talk to 50 people, six times people like, you know,

I didn't see enough of them. He's, you know what I mean? We didn't see the film. I'm just going to give him a four. You only played 11 games. It's totally fair. Yeah, so he got six fours when no one thinks he's a four for the bad reason, right? Like, I don't think he should be a starter.

No one thinks that. The four is just more like, you know, Mahomes was in this his first year after one start. I just wanted to hear what people said. he got a ton of four. People are like, I think he's going to be of two or a one, but I'm giving them a four. So, so Burrow got some fours that is the only reason to me why he's not probably a couple notches higher. He's not getting fours next year.

It makes sense to me because with rookie quarterbacks, especially rookie quarterbacks in less than ideal circumstances, let's say that. I think that that team is better than it was a year ago. But last year, you've got whatever 2020 version of AJ Green is out there, T. Higgins, as a rookie, an offensive line with a ton of holes in it, and all you wanted to see from a guy with that supporting cast is, is he real? Like, exactly what you're talking about. Is this somebody we want to move forward with? Is this somebody that is promising? And I think he answered that with an emphatic yes. Like, there are there questions about some aspects of his game, whether

it's the arm strength, whatever? Absolutely there are. But I think that he showed more than enough for people both in Cincinnati and outside of Cincinnati to be really, really excited about what he can be. Absolutely, yep. I'm with you 100%. I think he's sort of where he belonged. I'm glad he may have had enough to get into Tier 2 because it sort of conveys that message. You're saying, hey, we're saying, the league is saying, this guy's real. There's less wait and see than you see for some other guys.

There's not skepticism on him. So hopefully he's 100% healthy and they can protect him a little bit. One interesting thing. Remember the debate on them of whether they should have taken Penny Sewell to help their offensive line or Jamar Chase so they ended up taking the receiver. And maybe from 30,000 feet, we got to protect the guy. We need to build fundamentals along the line. But one of the coaches I talked to is like, oh, man, I'm so pissed they took Jamar Chase.

Like this is somebody who does defensive game plans, you know, and he's just like, that's going to be really, really good for Joe Burroughs. So exciting. Totally makes sense to me. I think that the way that they spent their resource, this offseason. I understand the argument for Sewell. I made the argument for Sewell, but I get why they went that direction. And I think that

they could be a lot better this year, and they could be a lot more fun to watch this year, for sure. So if you look at Burrow and then kind of the line between him and the guys in Tier 3, a lot of the same guys in Tier 3. And it's that Cousins-Goff, Garapolo, Baker-Mayfield sort of grouping that has existed over the last couple of years. I think it's interesting

that Baker got twice as many tier three votes pretty much as he got tier two votes. The league is absolutely not sold on what the Browns did offensively last year, what Baker was down the stretch. Yeah, but I mean, there's a little more nuance than that to it, Rob. So here's what I think. I don't think there's a negativity surrounding Baker. I think that when you play in that offense,

we're all trying to figure out how much credit to give the quarterback or blame. And I think people look at that situation. It's kind of like what happened to Jared Gough. Jared Goff was in a terrible situation, like the worst you could have. And then he went into the best where suddenly Gurley's on fire. You got this enterprising schemer and Sean McVeigh. The offensive line was good. And it was a little bit hard to know, okay, what is Jared Goff really, right?

I mean, shoot, they can go to the Super Bowl. They're leading the league in all these categories. But we sort of know there's a lot of play action going on. There's a lot of eye candy. There's a lot of things that are making Jared Goff look better than he is. And I think what happened to Baker Mayfield was unusually bad situation. the organization was a mess. Then Stafansky and Andrew Barry come in, black out the names.

You can't tell Kirk Cousin's stats from tier one guy's stats, right? Because of the offense, though. No one thinks the player's the same. And so that hurts Baker a little bit from getting more tier two's. I think he's another good year away from probably getting more of those to slide in to tier two. But I think people see other things, good offensive line, great job, Stefansky. Some of the credit, some of Mayfield's credit is going into other. areas and not to him until he does it again and again.

I think this has happened over the last couple years where you have the guys from that offense all clustered together. And if you look at the rankings this year, same idea, right? Baker is 17th, Cousins is 18th, golf is 19th, Garoppolo is 21st. They're all lumped right in there. The one exception to that this year is that after being the most efficient quarterback in the league over the last two seasons, Ryan Tannahill finally jumps into tier two. He has 27 tier two votes, 27 tier three.

You can't hold it back anymore. It took a lot for him to get up there. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think people know whether your team wants to really sort of feature you or kind of wants to protect you. And when you're in offenses that run the ball all the time and Tennessee is one of those two. When Tennessee has to throw the ball at the time, Tennessee is more nervous than the defense. And that's what that's why Tanyhill has. moved up more is like, yeah, his production is unbelievable.

But everyone knows that the whole defense is looking at Derek Henry the whole time. And that's affecting the looks that Tannenhill gets. Even somebody who faced him and liked him, probably gave him a two. It was like when they were coming back on us, it wasn't like he was sliced and diced. And he was taking what we were giving him. You know, it's not as dynamic of an offense, even with those stats. And one of the passengers in my piece is Tanahill leaves the NFL and yards per two. over the past two seasons. He has 55 touchdown passes, 11 rushing touchdown with only 17

turnovers. But stats can mislead. Tannhill, here's your guys. Tannehill, Garapolo, cousins. They all outrank Mahomes and yards per attempt over the last two years. They're comparable to him in EPA per attempt. They do not inhabit the same planet as Mahomes. That's what I love about this exercise, because I look at the stats too. I love them. I mean, I look at them. I can kind of have a feel for what it means. But that's not what we're doing. We're not learning. You know what I mean? We're differentiated. I agree with you.

I think it's really interesting. I totally agree. I just think when you look at it, that that's why this exercise is really informative. Because if you look at those numbers, those guys from that system are inherently going to be more efficient. But what does that really mean? And I enjoy trying to parse that. So if you look at it. Think of this.

Go into basketball reference.com and find all the guys who average 20 points a game. They're not all the same. George Gervin going back in the day or Larry Bird or LeBron James averaged 20 points a game differently than some other guy who average 20 points a game. And that's what we're doing. So if you look at the rest of Tier 3, I was a little bit surprised that Jared Gough is firmly entrenched in that group after the season he had last year. I don't know if that's wrong. but I was just surprised that he was relatively unchanged. If you look at it, he had 43 tier three votes.

I mean, he is right there with those other guys. He was tied with Carson Wrench, which I actually think is pretty funny that they're linked like that. Were you a little bit surprised that golf didn't fall off more than he, more than he did after last season? No, you know, I think that he was somebody who was probably ranked, you would have said, ranked lower than his production was before because of those things, you know, because of the credit point others. People are like, wait a minute, McBade's calling the plays before the cutoff. Remember all that stuff that they were doing, right? There were already ample reasons not to give Goff more of his due. So he was probably already suppressed a little bit. And then people just

look at it as validation that, you know, and I think people defended him a little bit too. Like, look, this guy isn't as crappy as they're making him out to be. I don't know what happened there. I mean, this is unusually. How do you sign a guy? And then all of a sudden, it wasn't like they just upgraded to Rogers, they dumped on him too. I mean, like McVeigh, by the Tampa Bay game last year, like, it was public that they didn't like them. And that was a weird thing. So people were kind of looking at that by going, wait a minute, he's better than that.

This guy makes some great throws, you know. Now they do feel like he's going to, you know, go to a little bit of a tough situation where he's not going to necessarily bounce back. But maybe he was just already low. And that's why he stayed low. And I think that Wents's distribution is even more interesting. because he has nine tier two votes, nine after the season that he had last year. But he has six tier four votes.

And that, I mean, that distribution and that range to me just speaks to how many different ways this could go for Carson Wentz in Indianapolis. Because there is absolutely a camp that still believes he is salvageable and that he doesn't belong. I mean, you look at where he is in this exercise compared to the people he was next to statistics. statistically last year. Sam Darnold, Drew Locke, the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in terms of production. That's where he was last season. And he is drastically higher than them. So do you think that this vote distribution and this range speaks to the faith that some people have that he could put it back together in Indianapolis? Oh, yeah. The people that are putting them at two are saying, I think he's going to be a two this year. And I'm putting them in a two now. And I'm just telling you it's going to happen.

that's going to be a much different situation. He's going to lose some of the things, you know, some of the burden of being the top two pick in Philadelphia, and all his expectations, he's going to go into a much more favorable, easier to handle market with a coach who knows them well, with a good defense,

you know, with a good offense of line. They'll be able to replicate some of the stuff that Philadelphia had going when he, you know, played to an MVP candidate level and before he was injured. So doesn't that make him a tier three quarterback, though? If all of those,

different aspects or what are important in making him successful? Well, yes, unless you think they were so unusually bad that it made a two play like a four. I'm with you. I think that Carson Wentz has been overrated the whole time. I feel like they had a lot of great context around him that year that they went to the Super Bowl. And the fact that another guy just stepped in and won the whole thing kind of validates that, doesn't it? I don't think I am shocked. He was 11th last year.

When I went back and I looked at those rankings, I was shocked. I was shocked then. I was shocked then. I'm like, if you asked me a year ago, maybe we, you know, you probably did. What's the one thing that stands out to you? I was like, how can Carson Wentz be a notch ahead of Dak Prescott? I don't see it at all. So I think he's somebody.

I can remember when I was working at ESPN when he came into the league, I would go to John Gruden's quarterback camp. And like, you know, John can be excited about you and me as a prospect. You can get excited about anybody. But like that was like the most excited of anybody that, you know, I went there for five or six years. I saw the, I saw the excitement on camera and off camera. That was like as excited, like he got really excited about Carson Wentz. And I feel like the league did that. And I feel like there's something missing with them. I mean, that thing we're talking about

the way that, you know, Burrow or Josh Allen connect with their guys, that's part of this. I feel like he doesn't do that with the whole team. I feel like there's a, there's a sort of an off-puttingness almost to him a little bit or a failure to connect with everybody, then he has a fatal flaw to me. He can't live to play another down. He has to always try to do the impossible. Well, that's not quarterbacking. That's talent.

But so if he doesn't do it this year, I mean, he has to be a four to me. I tend to agree with that. And I think that if we're talking about the quarterback experiments and the quarterbacks changing teams and what those circumstances are going to dictate and everything else. The two that are the most interesting to me are Wentson-Darnold because these are two teams that have made big bets on their ability to fix these guys, right? The Broncos know what Teddy Bridgewater is. They're not under any illusion that Teddy Bridgewater is somebody that can turn it around

and become their starting quarterback for the next five years. I think the Colts and the Panthers both believe that to a certain extent. and we're going to have to see it with both of those guys. Because if you watch once last year, I think the live to play another down thing is exactly right. And that manifested in the sacks. He just could not get rid of the ball and refuse to get rid of the ball. And he only played 12 games.

Yes. He took 50. He took 50 sacks last year. And that to me is the most important thing, is he just broken. Is he just short-circuited between the ears where he's not going to be able to function at the position anymore because of what we saw him. do when having to deal with pressure. I think he absolutely could turn it around.

I believe in the Colts infrastructure and in Frank Reich and all of that stuff, but that's still a big, big ask. That's the first stop I'm making. I will be there. You guys listen to this on Wednesday. I will be in Indianapolis or I guess in Warren or wherever their camp is. I will be there today watching that team and I cannot wait to, I know it's the first couple days of practice, but just what the news is out of there, what he looks like, everything

else. I mean, that to me is one of these stories of this entire training camp period. I'm with you. And, you know, it's been, it's been sort of a happy place there in India. I think everybody loves the, the job that they've done and, you know, putting that team together. And everybody sort of likes Frank Reich and Chris Ballard and these guys. But that owner ain't waiting forever. Okay. This is it. I mean, this is the bet they made. And there had to be debates in that building this offseason. Stafford was the Phillip, what should we do? You think, you know what I mean?

And Frank Wright got obviously got his guy. And I'm sure, I think that's who Chris Ballard wanted to do. But you know there had to be people in that building. There were other options they could have done. If Carson Wentz is crap this year and Matt Stafford's in the Super Bowl are those types of things, or Sam Darnold has an amazing season and Carson Wentz is terrible, the tenor of Indy changes, I believe. I completely agree.

I mean, this is it. This is the bet they've made. They were waiting to see what the bet was going to be. Post Andrew Luck, they were biding their time. Obviously, Rivers was a stop gap. They chose not to make any big splashing moves in last year's draft, I think, in part because they didn't believe in the physical skill sets of some of those quarterbacks picked in the top 10.

It would have taken a lot to go up and get them. And now this is the bet they made. They chose to go all in on Carson Wentz, and we're going to see if they can resurrect his career. I mean, it is one of the biggest questions associated with this NFL season to me. Absolutely, yeah. I can't wait to see it. I'm a little, I mean, I'm excited for it, but I'm a little, I'd be a little nervous for them too.

I mean, I just. After watching Carson Wentz last year, I'd be very nervous if I were. Yeah, yeah, but it's fascinating, yeah. Speaking of teams that probably should be a little bit nervous, Tua Tango Volo is 29th in this exercise. He had 44 tier four votes, which is pretty much the same as Jalen Hur. is that to you a product of not having enough information or do people think that he belongs in tier four in this category?

Definitely a healthy part of not enough information, but on top of that, I'm not feeling great about it because if you don't have enough information but you love the guy, you'll do what some people will do. You're like with Burrow, for example. With Burrow, for example, right? If they saw some of that, he'd be way higher. I think there's real worry. And if I were to ask you or anyone this question,

what special trait does he have? What's the answer? What are you hoping he becomes? He's pretty quick twitch. I mean, he can get rid of the ball well. I think that some of the accuracy stuff is pretty encouraging, but it's not a long list. He does not have that many elite physical categories,

elite physical traits. I will say that. So, you know, because, because one of the, some of the comments in here was like, you know, they weren't all in on Tom Brady, right? They,

they didn't, they could have had Herbert, right? They could have done a lot of other things. And they're a team that has gotten a lot of sort of positive press for acquiring assets and all this, but those become players. And we can make a debate.

Would they have a better chance this year with Tua or if it's Patrick? You could debate that. We saw it last year. We saw it last year. That's a little scary. So I would like there to be, from a Miami standpoint, a little bit more excitement of like, okay, here are the three things I cannot wait to see from two of this year. Instead, we're like, geez, the coordinator had a three-year deal.

He retired or resigned, right? Now, that could be, maybe it's hard to work there. I don't know what's going on. But you don't see guys giving up on their contracts with Herbert or, for these other guys, right? I mean, what is there to feel great about? Then he also is a little bit of a flatliner, right?

He's got a little flacko to him, a little Marcus Mariotta to him, right? There's not a lot of, you don't just perceive the juice with him. Like, he's not going in there and captivating this team. Like, they lost their mojo when Fitzpatrick had that. I think you could talk yourself into the idea

that that's because Fitzpatrick is so, far the other way that it seems like a huge letdown with Tua. But I just sort of feel like I, I want to see a little, you know, we're trying to sort of start a campfire here and I want to see some sparks. Yeah. And the paper that we're trying to light feels a little wet right now. Maybe that's unfair, but like what are you excited about? What excites you about that situation?

Because remember, we got Josh Allen in the division. We got Mack Jones coming in. We got Zach Wilson, by the way. we're going into battle with Tua sell me on why this is a great thing. I think that it starts with the supporting cast and what they put around him this year. If you're getting excited about it, and I don't necessarily believe this, but I think if you're trying to build the case, you build the case with look at the receiving talent that we have now.

Look at Will Fowler. We drafted Jalen Waddle in the first round. This can be an explosive offense. We don't need him to do everything. I agree. That's where it starts. But I think there are plenty of. of things on the other side of this because

like you said, you have an offensive coordinator that resigned after one year and I think that's a little bit more complicated than just Tua. That's definitely not just Tua. He was out of the league. Chan Gale was out a league for a while. I think it took a big overture to get him back in and I don't know

how much he wanted to be there long term anywhere. I'm not holding that against Tua. But it's sort of another it's not good for Tua. It doesn't help them. Now they have two offensive coordinator the team both responded to and played better with Ryan Fitzpatrick last year. There are a lot of negatives in that column if you're trying to build the case against it. I think it's an uphill battle for him to be good this year.

I believe it can happen, but I definitely have my doubts. And I think those doubts are built into where he falls on this list. Right. And I feel like he, more than some of these other guys, needs things to be right around him, right? because we're not seeing necessarily the tier one traits, unless he's going to be this unbelievable accurate processor, Drew Brees. That's possible. Again, high degree of difficulty.

Threading that needle is not easy in more ways than one. Yeah, that's really hard to do. And it's unrealistic to expect it to happen right away. I just feel like that's a potential playoff team that may be, dare I say, looking for a quarterback in a couple of years, unless we see something this year, right? Don't you?

I mean, let's say you have that team in place, right? I know this is unfair to it. He played like half a season last year. But you have this team in place that you're really excited about. It's ridiculous. We feel it. That's why we're saying it. It's the exact opposite of the feeling with Burrow, where when you look at it, you know it.

It would, too, we're having the exact opposite reaction. Where when you look at it, you have these doubts and you don't know it. And I think that's the thing. With Herbert and with Burrow, it was so clear that, it's influencing the way that we think about Tua. But let's play this hypothetical out a little bit. Let's say we still feel the same way six months from now that we do at this moment where we have these doubts.

And you have this roster that you feel really good about because of the resources that they've stockpiled and how many draft picks they've had and everything else. What if Russell Wilson is available? I mean, what it, do you, are you one of these teams that feels like we need to upgrade? And again, I know that's unfair to Tua at this stage, but I would not be surprised if we were living in that world next February. Yeah, I think Philly with all of their draft picks will be may have the ammo to be that team to do that even more. But no doubt you have to do that. There's no doubt that.

I mean, look, like I said, do you think they should have been in on Tom Brady more? You know what I mean? Or that's sort of the thing. They've had some chances here on other people. you've got to keep if you can go from an unknown who were not that excited about the Russell Wilson, I mean, there's a lot of teams that should do that. I think that they, I can't speak to their process or their thought, they're thinking here, but they had a plan, right?

They were going to stockpile all these picks. They had a top five pick in a draft where they were going to be able to get one of those quarterbacks. That was their plan. And I think that getting off that plan when you liked him pre-draft is difficult. It made sense for them to stick with it. Now, maybe they're having some regrets. But I really love that we ended this podcast by throwing dirt on Tuatangamo's career after he started like six games.

I know. It's just everything we believe people shouldn't do, but we couldn't help ourselves today. That's how it works. Mike Sando, thank you very much for doing this. Guys, needless to say, go check out the quarterback tiers piece on the athletic. It is up today. It is indispensable. It is one of my favorite things to read every single year.

It is the perfect reason. to get an athletic subscription if you do not have one. So either go to the athletic and click on the QB Tiers piece or go to theathletic.com slash football show and get your subscription before you start reading it. You will not regret it. This is, in my opinion, the perfect way to kick off training camps opening today, to kick off the start of the NFL season in a lot of ways.

Mike, thank you very much for doing this. Always love your insight when it comes to this. Hey, thanks so much and we'll talk again soon. All right, guys. Thank you very much for listening. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. As I mentioned yesterday, we're coming to three times a week all through training camp. Nate and I will be back on Friday, and then it will be Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday,

all the way through August into the start of September. Very excited about the stuff we have coming. I'm in Indy today. I will be in Cleveland tomorrow. We're back. The NFL season in some ways is already here. and I cannot tell you how excited I am for that. Thank you guys for listening.

We'll talk to you on Friday. This was the Athletic Football Show.