The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Quarterbacks at a crossroads in 2026

Episode Date: August 25, 2026

Get your tickets to the live show! https://lh-st.com/shows/09-01-2026-the-athletic-football-show-with-robert-mays/C.J. Stroud went down to the crossroads, fell down on his knees. Bryce Young went down to the crossroads, tried to flag a ride. Justin Herbert will see you at the crossroads, so you won't be lonely. Yup, that's right, it's time for QBs at a crossroads. In addition to Stroud, Young and Herbert, Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman discuss the pivotal seasons facing Jalen Hurts, Michael Penix and Malik Willis on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Join The Athletic Football Show Discord Server: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @RobertMaysFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today we're talking about some quarterbacks at a crossroads entering the 2026 season. We did this episode last summer, chat about guys like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray. That ended up being real. Those guys were a crossroads in their career. So we'd picked six players talk about today. We'll dig into those with me, Dave, and Derek.

A quick bit of housekeeping live show. September 1st, Lincoln Hall in Chicago. A few tickets still available if you have not gotten your. now is the time to do it doing the winds pool during that show we will have some Q&A and a little meet and great after so we'd love if you guys would stop by kicking off the division previews tomorrow big week at the athletic football show big couple weeks let's get into the quarterbacks at a cross roads in 26 right now our last show before the division previews kick off starting tomorrow it's a episode we did last year that I really enjoyed and it's one of the one of the

that we wanted to revisit this year. Derek, we're going to talk about some quarterbacks at a crossroads today, guys that have reached a fork in the road in their career, and what happens this year could send them down either one of those paths. I'm very much looking forward to this, is the show I've had circled for a while here. I mean, this is one that I think the last couple of years that we've done, it has been one of our best shows because I feel like it often does come to be like

they really do hit like a fork in the road. when we get to their next season. Like, I think we did Trevor on one of these. And then by the end of last year, it was like, I guess Trevor's just pretty good. And like, it seems like we've solved that. And so I think this always is like a good show for that. The two that I remember,

the two were like the onus for doing the episode last year, were Trevor and Kyler Murray. Yeah. Yeah. And Kyler would be on here again if we didn't put him on the most at stake show, which like, that's the funny thing. Now he's in a different bucket because of how last year went for him when he was at this crossroad.

he took he took a fork in the road last year and immediately came to another fork it's just getting more confusing for kailer murray we talked about kailer at the most at stake show we talked about baker on the most at stake show so if you guys want to hear the conversation about those guys kind of under this umbrella we've already done that the other guy that i would throw out here as as a potential option that we're not going to talk about today simply because we spent so much time talking about him in kind of this way Caleb williams i think is at a crossroads this year Like, that situation in Chicago is very good. And so I think improvement from Caleb Williams is necessary. It might be strong, but something to watch. Because I do think that how this year goes is going to go a long way and kind of pointing toward what the next few years of his career ultimately going to look like. We ended up settling on six guys that we have not talked about in this way that we wanted to dig into today.

But before we do that, a little bit of quarterback news that we wanted to hit. Deshaun Watson announced as the start. starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns today per Adam Schefter. Dave, I'll see this to you first. Your initial reaction upon seeing that the Browns are going to go with Deshaun Watson to at least start the season. My initial reaction is, well, of course. And it's funny how you can lose sight of that during the breathless updates during

training camp. And Cleveland has become famous for charting their different quarterbacks, pass attempts during practice. But if you, if you zoom out 30,000 feet and keep this whole thing in mind, of course, dude, the report started trickling out in December when Deshaun Watson's practice window got activated that he was so impressive and he looked so good coming off of the Achilles surgery and maybe he's a viable candidate for 2026. That was before Todd Monkin even took the job. You started hearing rumors that Deshaun Watson was going to be in the mix. and you think about the contract, you think about the ramifications

if he's not starting for the Cleveland Browns. And like I said, it's easy when you get into training camp to watch him play and look bad during the preseason and lose sight of all of that context. And it's cynical and it's kind of bleak to just come back to the big picture. But as disappointing as it is

that this is where the Cleveland Browns are and these are the sorts of decisions they continue to make, you can't say it's overly surprising when they've been laying the groundwork to do this for nine months. It's just you were kind of willing yourself to believe in a different course of action. But it kind of feels like this was always going to be the logical conclusion. I think where I land on this is like this is one of the most embarrassing moments, I think, in like the history of the sport followed only by the other time that they tried to start him back in, in 2023, when he obviously this was after all of the allegations and things came out.

and then he played horribly. He was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, has had multiple injuries since then. And then like you said, Dave, they kind of went into this year, like, sure, they have Schroeder Sanders on the roster, and they drafted Dylan Gabriel last year. But it kind of felt like the competition this year

was a little bit of a song and dance and that he was ultimately going to get the job. And I posted this on Blue Sky. There have been a lot of bad week one NFL starters, like guys who were just not necessarily cut out to be good at the job. This is the first time that I can remember where naming the starter felt like it was done out of contempt for the fan base. Like it's crazy.

Just like who he is and how poorly he's played and what he's done over his three years there, it's just like it kind of blows my mind that they either didn't bring in any other competition or weren't just willing to run out the string with Shitter Sanders or whatever else it was going to be. I think the fan base is also where my mind goes. Let's rewind just a little bit because I do think that you're not wrong, Dave. There are obviously bigger things that play here just in the sense that it's not a competition with a quarterback who's making whatever Deshaun Watson is making every single year doesn't normally exist. You know, I mean, that's just the level of complexity and beyond what we typically consider here. But I do think that, I don't know if there's anything conspiratorial as to why we arrived here.

I do think that this is Todd Monkin looking at his best chance to win football games early in the season as a 62-year-old, 63-year-old head coach and making this choice. Whether that's the right choice for the fan base is an entirely different conversation or even the right choice for the organization, there is no potential upside waiting for you here. We know what he is at this stage. And even if you think, all right, he can handle some of the operational stuff with a little bit more proficiency than a second year quarterback and that's why we want him to play,

that to me just isn't a good enough reason when you have to sell this to the fan base. beyond the last four years and what that has looked like and how much of a slap in the face it's been to the fans, period. Coming off the press conference on Saturday, that to me feels disqualifying. Like at a certain point, you are actively antagonizing the people who are paying to go see the football team, even if you think this is your best chance

to put the best possible product in the field, which, by the way, I don't even believe. I don't even believe that. When I was there, my understanding is that the preseason game, were going to help to dictate how this was going to go, because what he looks like in live action is going to be different when there's a real pass rush. He looked terrible.

That's how he looked. So even if, while he's practiced better and he had a good practice against the bills, well, those games either mattered or they didn't. And so by all, like, the way that this has played out, it seems like they didn't. And so I just, I can't imagine being a fan of this team and having this be the end point

because it is so, demoralizing. Even if you're choosing between two bad options and Shadour probably isn't ready to be the quarterback of a functional NFL offense consistently the same way he wasn't last year, I just can't imagine a bigger slap in the face than going this direction if you're somebody who has to root for this team for football reasons beyond all of the other ones. And so the idea that you're going to crack open your week one game as a Browns fan and have to watch this in a moment where there should be more excitement than at any other point in the season, man, just I truly can't imagine what that has to feel like if you care about this team at all.

The other thing I would say, too, the other cynical thought that I came back to is if you removed all of the unsavory elements of the Deshaun Watson saga, he hasn't been a good player. He's like, to your point, he was, he was 40. decade. It's been a long time. So, and, and let's, let's be, let's be blunt and honest. Like, if he was good, there would be plenty of people either willing to look the other way on the allegations or pretend they don't exist or outright say they don't care about it. People are willing to, to do that in the name of sports success. It's not ideal. It's just a fact of human nature. So to sit there and act like it, it's personal that the fans are booing you and it's, it has nothing. to do with your ability as a football player.

It's just not true. You have been an abject disaster purely as a player. And then that is in addition to all of the other elements that make this whole thing a bummer to talk about. And yeah, in addition to having no confidence that he can do anything for your football team, you add that element on top of it. Yeah, I don't envy Cleveland Browns fans and, you know, getting, getting poked on the way out on Saturday by Deshawn Watson is like adding insult to injury.

And then on top of that, him apologizing after being named the starter on Monday morning is like the first time he's ever even attempted to take accountability for anything in this entire saga. And at this point, it doesn't count. Of course. At this doesn't count. I give this a month. Yeah.

I give this a month. That's the other thing. Neither quarterback here was starting 17 games, probably. And so I just feel like, not that I really give a shit about like how much the Browns are saving themselves PR-wise. But if you at least start Shrter Sanders, it falls apart, he falls away. I think people would have just like been whatever if Deshaun comes in by week nine. There's something about going in and naming him the week one starter that is just like, you just didn't have to do that. And I think it's just like a final embarrassing note on this entire saga.

They just can't cut him, right? I mean, that's the reality of the situation is they just can't cut him. They cannot financially move on from him this season. This is always going to be weird and messy because of that. He'll be gone next off season. They'll be starting over a quarterback likely drafting a guy somewhere in the top 10. The goal at this point has to be, can we hang on through this season with the young pass catchers and just capture some, any level of excitement and optimism to get us to next spring when we will have a different answer to this?

But at a certain point, you're just trudging through. like a river of shit to get there if you were a fan of this team. And that's how it's been for years. And it's not as, like, exactly. Cleveland Browns fans have a lot of experience trying to get excited about a team that doesn't have a good quarterback. And there are a dozen ways you could find enthusiasm for the Shadur Sanders era, even if he doesn't wind up being any good.

But there, I mean, there's nothing, there's nothing redeeming or fun about starting the season off this way. And it doesn't have to be that way. And like I said, cynically, it's not surprising, but it's still disappointing. All right. Let's get to our first quarterback here. And let's start with another little bit of news that came out right before we started recording. We wanted to talk about CJ Stroud as a guy who we think is at a crossroads heading into this season.

C.J. Stroud has a new receiver as of about 2 p.m. central time on Monday, August 24th. Kishon Booty heading to the Texans for what sounds like a seventh round pick. for Tom Pelliserro that I think belonged to the Saints at one point. It's funny. We were just talking about this last week about how the receiving core would shake out without Jaden Higgins. And Derek, we're trying to figure out who would be able to credibly be like a perimeter vertical

receiver on this team in order to move Nico Collins around to do the things you were going to place on Jaden Higgins' plate. There wasn't a clear answer among the group. Well, now Kayshan Bouti is exactly that type of player. Like, you can just stick him outside the numbers. and I think now you have to move Nico Collins around in order to get the best version of the offense. And so this does make sense to me.

Like, it's not ideal. Jaden Higgins, I think, was in line for a really nice second season, but I completely understand the Texan thought process and why they landed on doing this. I mean, this was as good as it was going to get for them in terms of who they could acquire at this stage in the calendar, right? And I think he actually, like, can solve either problem for them. I think if they want to do what you're saying,

where it's like, let's actually move around our best player, Nico Collins, put him in the slot. more maybe put him off the ball do all this sort of stuff with him and just have booty be our clear out ex vertical player that's what kisham booty does best like even when he was you know a rookie and that was he was even a more limited player than he is now that was all of his best stuff i also do think that even though higgins is bigger and probably a little bit better like going up and getting the football i do think booty can be a little bit like you put him in the slot he's a guy who can slash across the middle and do some of that stuff so like i'm going to be curious over the first month of him being in the offense like

which of those two roles do they actually think suits him better or obviously suits Nico Collins better because that's who you really want the passing offense to be about. Sometimes this stuff is really simple. You don't have to be an expert to look at New England's receiver depth chart and say, ah, not a whole lot of opportunity for Kashan Bouty there. I wonder if somebody might want him. And then the Texans unfortunately have a big injury.

I think anybody paying half attention to the league the last three weeks was like, this feels like it makes sense. and lo and behold, the GMs of the teams agree with us. All right, let's get into the Stroud part of this conversation. Dave, why in your mind is an exercise like this worth starting off with C.J. Stroud as we had it in 20206? You know what's funny? I don't know if I'm the guy to ask because, and I wanted to say this at the top,

I wasn't on this show last year, and I'm excited to do this with y'all because I tend to look at things in different ways sometimes from the two of you. I really valued doing this exercise because it illuminated some things for me about various quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud being chief among them, because I would posit to you, I don't really think C.J. Stroud is at a crossroads. I think C.J.

Stroud is in a perfectly good spot. I can't tell you when the contract is coming or what the money is going to look like, but I think C.J. Straude is going to be in Houston for a while one way or the other. And that's, that was my overarching conclusion where I don't think he's, I don't think there's that much of a fork in front of him. Here's what I'll say. This conversation and this exercise is not necessarily about drastic changes when it

comes to where a player is going to be or like, like Trevor Lawrence had already been paid, you know, when we were having the Trevor Lawrence conversation. I think this is just more about what type of career, what type of player. these guys end up becoming wherever they wind up. And I think that's kind of where I land with C.J. Stroud, where I think with C.J. Stroud, the idea that he's regressed since his rookie year to me isn't really correct or fair. Like, I don't think that he's a markedly worse player than he was as a rookie. If you look at the numbers from last year, they are not worse than he was as a rookie.

And I still think those circumstances in Houston aren't weren't great. He has not taken the step forward that I think we've wanted to see. that dramatic step forward. He has not improved in a demonstrable way since from where we saw him as a rookie. You can argue that maybe some nuanced things and some small things have happened. I think that to me is where the crossroads part of this comes in.

Even if we think he's going to be a Houston Texan, I still think year two of a system where they went out, tried to remake the offensive line. I think that it's where this season goes for C.J. Stroud is going to change the way. way we probably think about C.J. Stroud one way or the other, even if he's probably set up to be the Texans quarterback. And even that, I would have an ounce of doubt about what that contract ends

up looking like and when it comes. Because if he has a gangbuster season and he gets paid after this, that's one choice rather than, yeah, we're going to play it out. Maybe we tag you because we're just not convinced yet. I think that's more realistic than you probably do right now. I'm not going to back down off of this take. And some of this is projecting. by the way. And I'll just say off the jump, I have a tremendous amount of confidence that C.J. Stroud is going to be just fine.

I can't help but think back to this time last year when Derek and I were saying this is the offensive line. This is what we're going to do. This is what we're doing in year three of CJ Stroud. And lo and behold it, it wasn't enough to keep him out of the

playoffs. But the concerns were there heading into last year. Like you should not have been surprised that the Texans' offensive ecosystem was pretty bad heading into last season, in my opinion. And to your point, Robert, I went back and looked at the numbers, and I think they're very illuminating. The Texans offense finished 19th in the league in EPA per play. Improves to 18th, by the way, if you don't account for the month that CJ wasn't in the lineup.

More importantly, they were 14th in EPA per dropback. and if you, again, account for the full month of the season that C.J. Stroud was unavailable. They were 11th in the NFL in EPA per dropback. This was a perfectly good passing offense with C.J. Stroud at quarterback. And you say, well, why wasn't it better then? They were 27th overall in success rate, probably because they were bottom three in EPA per carry and rushing success rate. they had the eighth highest stuff rate in the NFL and the third lowest explosive run rate in the league. C.J. Stroud was doing a pretty good job quarterbacking a completely one-dimensional and messy offense.

And one way or the other, with an improved ecosystem, I think he's going to be just fine. I think he's going to be justified in asking for a contract extension. And if the Texans do want to tag him, that still puts him under club control for a minimum of two years before he could have. ultimately get this contract extension. When I was thinking about it, in some ways it reminded me a lot of Dak Prescott, where at the age of 33, having made all the money in the world, we forget about how hard he had to fight for his first deal, but he did. And I feel the same way about C.J.

Stroud, where I'm like, it might be kind of messy, but I think you're going to be the Texans quarterback for a long time. And I think you're good. And I think you're going to play well. And some of that is projection, but I feel pretty good. good about it. I feel like I land on both sides here. I think if I'm just taking a guess and like giving my take on the player, I think that he is good enough to be a guy that you pay. He will be good long term. He will develop. But I do think that he's in a unique position right now in a

couple of ways. One, it feels pretty atypical for a guy like him to not be paid immediately when eligible given what some of his highs have been. Like given what his rookie year was, some of the playoff games that he's won. I know they lost, but like in 20s. He played really, really well against the chiefs in that playoff game. Like the highs that he's had, usually that player, like, as soon as they're eligible, it's go time. And so the fact that he hasn't, I do think does put him in a little bit of a unique position. Think about the rookie year. Think about after the rookie year, the idea that after his third season, we would just not be rubber stamping, whatever the next highest paid contract is.

Like, there's a difference between we're paying you because we don't have a better option and we're excited to do it. And I think that, to me, is the crossroads. I agree. It feels like it, and it goes back to what you said too. Like C.J. Stroud is at worst, an average NFL QB. I think he's better than that. But I think after his rookie season, the idea was that, okay, if this is the starting point, he can become something like Matt Ryan or Dak Prescott or something in that level

where he's a perennial top eight quarterback. He has some of these highs that he's throwing 35 touchdowns in a year, whatever it's going to be. I just don't know if we've seen that much development. from him. And again, I think that there's reasons for that. I think some of that is probably on his own. Some of that is that the offensive line has been terrible. And I do think that there's like a cumulative effect of the offensive line being as bad as it is. And so I think all of that is true. And I also think why he becomes kind of a hot button player to talk about and should he be paid, should he not, is that it's not that like his numbers overall or lower. Like Trevor Lawrence was not a particularly productive quarterback overall until, you know, by the time he got paid. And CJ Stroud, I think, has been more productive than that. But the problem with CJ Stroud is he's had blowup games. And I think that people just remember that. And you are a little bit worried that, like, is he going to keep doing that?

And again, I think a lot of that comes down to just the offensive line being as bad as it is. But I think that that's something that sticks with people. And I think the last thing that I would say that really puts like a magnifying glass on him, this roster is ready to win the Super Bowl for the most part. Again, the offensive line has its issues and it's not a perfect offense. But like, that defense is special. And last year, if he just played normal bad, they might be in the Super Bowl. But he was like all-time blow-up could not get himself together.

And again, I've said, I don't think that that's like a trait that he's going to carry for the next 10 years necessarily. But it's objectively true that he kind of botched those games for a team that was ready to do it all. So he's just in a weird position. And so I ultimately think you pay him and he will get paid and that he's going to be a top 12-ish quarterback for a long time. But I do think that there was a world where I was pretty ready to say, he will be top seven at some point. I'm a little bit more like you got to prove that part of it to me again. I think that's where I'd land as well.

Because, Dave, I've said a lot of the same numbers you just spat out about the dropback success rate or the dropback EPA when he was on the field. Like, it was good. And I also am of the opinion that there is a better version of him waiting on the other side. But I think Derek laid it out well. Those games are real. Those games at the end are real. Those are the most important games.

And so I do think that there is a chance. we see the best version of him. But I also think that his game, I think year two in this offense will be really telling. I think is what I'll say. I think that there are elements of who he is as a player that are not negotiable. Like his talent as a thrower,

his feel for coverage is very good for a player. He understands like where guys are. He doesn't throw a lot of interceptions, which makes the playoffs like very funny. But I think his awareness and spatial awareness is very good. I think there are detail. and things about the offense that need to be better as we head into year two of it. I think there are elements that just need to be a little bit more buttoned up than they

probably were a year ago. And I do anticipate him doing that. Like, I think that with better offensive line play, with a better running game, and in year two of the offense, there is a chance that we see the best version of him we've ever seen. And that includes the rookie year. But that's where the crossroads comes in. Like, if that happens, we talk about him in such a different way than we are right now, based on how the end of last season ended.

And I think we talk about the Texans in a slightly different way. And so I'm very open to what you're saying, Dave, in the sense that everything will come together in a way that it has not right now and it will reframe the discussion about him from where it is right now. But I think that's the reason we're having the discussion

because that has to happen, I think, for a lot of people to snap back into being believers in the trajectory of which direction he's headed. Because at the very best, it has mostly been flat since we saw him do what he did as a rookie. It's a valid conversation and it's a great point. I don't mean to gloss over the playoffs, but we just have such a larger sample size of regular season games than playoffs.

But that Texan's team could absolutely have reached the Super Bowl and maybe won it if C.J. Strau just hadn't lost his mind for two weekends. And that's worth bringing up. But I balk at the idea and it's not to absolve him completely. but I balk at the idea that going into the season, we were like, this isn't good enough. What are you doing? You have this promising young quarterback entering year three and this is what you've done

to put him in a good place. And it was obvious in August of last year. And the Texans defense was good enough that it didn't bite them in the ass until it really mattered. But I can't sit here and put that all on C.J. Stroud when I felt like it was very obvious before the season even started last year. that they were setting him up to disappoint. And so I'm willing to give him some leeway.

If this year doesn't look markedly better, I'll eat my words and I'll have no problem doing it. But I think it's a little knee jerk to pile on C.J. Stroud for problems that were easy to see coming before the season even started. And in spite of that, in the big picture, he was still a pretty good player. And so I just have no problem believing that last year was more of an aberrater. than anything. And the end of last year.

Yeah. Well, the end, yeah. Oh, just in totality. But we'll see. I have no problem admitting I'm wrong if this goes belly up. All right. Let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about C.J. Stroud's 2023 draft mate and where he sits coming into this season.

Bryce Young in a very similar situation to C.J. Stroud. Fifth year option picked up. He will be on the Panthers roster at the very least in 2027. But how excited they are about giving him an extension. how realistic that extension is is an entirely different discussion. Dave, I'm going to see this one to you first as well because I think you are more equipped or prepared

to give the pro-Brice Young stance about how this could work out than our buddy over there is. The funny thing is, my big talking point with Bryce has always just been what's the downside. I know I agitated some people earlier in the year back in the spring when they picked up his option.

saying that makes perfect sense to me. The option for next year, for Stroud and for Bryce Young is just shy of $26 million. It comes out to like, we don't have the 27 cap figure finalized, but if it jumps the way we think it's going to jump, Bryce Young will be counting for something like 7 or 8% of the upcoming salary cap. It just doesn't matter to me. So securing him for 2027, I think it makes all the sense in the world if Bryce Young is making quarterback 20 money to make sure that you have a guy on your roster. My question is, how good would it need to look to not address the position in another way

in 2027? Because that's the difference. This is not about whether he gets paid or not. It's like how realistic is bringing in competition for him after this year based on the way it goes. I'm not having that conversation about C.J. Stroud. I'm having that conversation about Bryce Young. even as the Bryce guy on this show, I mean, you can't argue with the numbers, which is that Bryce has been a bottom five or six quarterback, depending on the metric that you want to use, really across his entire career.

And even last year on the way to the playoffs, he was 28th out of 33 qualified passers and EPA per dropback, 26th in success rate. I mean, like the, I'm using scare quotes here. The good version of Bryce has not been remotely. what you want from a starting quarterback. And I don't know. That's what I'm curious about. Like could Bryce Young improve up closer to middle of the pack? And if he can do that, is that enough to be satisfied?

I don't know. I really don't know the answer. And it is ultimately a great crossroads question because heading into this season right now, even as a Bryce defender, I don't think I believe that the Panthers are just going to roll with him in 2027. Like they will do something else at quarterback barring a jump that we just can't even fathom yet. I think where I land on it, you bring up the middle of the pack, I think is a good way to frame it. I think it's possible that he gets up towards playing exactly like quarterback 20 and he really is

like middle of the pack. That just feels like the ceiling. Whereas the guy like when we were like, you know, hemming and hoeing over like Trevor Lawrence or even Kyler Murray recently, like their floor is kind of like, like, like, like quarterback 20. And so I think it's just a matter of like, is this guy actually elite and can he win us playoff games? I think when the ceiling is what it is for Bryce Young, to me, obviously them tagging him with the option is not necessarily like a long term commitment, but he's just not a quarterback that I can really envision a long term commitment for. I think that he's been good

enough that there will, he might get a, you know, a deal where he gets to come in and compete somewhere else for a starting job. Like, I don't think he's any worse than like Jacoby Brissette or Gardner Minchew or any of these other guys who have been in that realm. I just have a really hard time, given the talent, given the size, envisioning a world where he does play much higher than quarterback 20 pretty consistently, unless the team is just like absolutely loaded. Like to me, I think he feels a little bit like Andy Dalton-ish, but even Andy Dalton at his peak with the Bengals was bigger.

I think you can argue that he was at least as good, maybe a better athlete. Like, people forget, like, Andy Dolan could really move when he was a little bit. Absolutely. He was a runner at TCU. Like he could do that. And so I think that there was just even more to his game. And so I think if the best version of what you're getting is 90% of what those mid-teens Dalton was, I think it's just hard for me to envision the world of like what the upside actually here really looks like.

Let me ask you a question. Is there a price point where Bryce Young starts to become appealing to you? I mean, let's assume, let's just say he ups his level of play to like a fringe middle of the pack kind of guy this year. Is there a price point where you would be willing to try to build around the surplus that he might be able to give you? Because like Bryce Young, I'm just, I haven't seen anything that gives me confidence. Like I wouldn't even entertain, you know, anything near a top of the market extension for Bryce Young. But like if somehow I could get him on the Sam Darnold deal, is that appealing at all to you? Or do you not even believe he could get you to that sort of?

I don't think so. Because even because realistically, that's what it would be right. No, no, he's not going to sign a $15 million a year deal. Like that is the more number that it's like, okay, you can start and convince yourself. But even the $33 million a year deal doesn't exist for players signing their second contract. It just doesn't exist. Okay. But wouldn't you, and I understand that.

But Bryce feels so unique in this regard. That if it happened, it would be him. I just can't barring a super noble. The same way it was for Andy Dalton, by the way. Right, exactly, which is why he kind of does feel like the comp in the best case scenario. But I think to your point, Dave, the guys who've signed and had success in that range are Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. I think the arm talent and the way that you can build a passing offense is just different. Like, Sam Darnold is imperfect, but you can craft a passing game.

like a really explosive passing game around his best strengths, even if he's got some downsides. He's fantastically talented. Yes. There was a reason he was the top, what, third overall pick in the draft or whatever, and like eight different teams were trying to give him a chance because the talent is undeniable. And you can build a passing game around what his best traits are. And I think the same is true of Baker Mayfield. I think with Bryce Young, I just don't feel that way.

Even if there's things that he's decent at, I don't look into him and go, this is what we can build the passing game on. Whereas I do think with like Mayfield and Darnold, you can do that. I agree with that. And I think there are arguments on both sides of this. The argument for why we might see the best version we've ever seen at Bryce Young, I think goes like this. Last year, but two years ago, there were no pass catchers on this team. It was an absolute wasteland.

And even heading into last year, they have this idea of how the offense is going to be where they have Jalen Coker and T-Mack. And you have the combination of those two and the ability to move Coker around allows you to move T-Mack around and you just have this more dynamic version of the passing game that you'd never had in Bryce's first couple years. And then immediately in training camp, Coker gets hurt. And so we never really get to see what the offense was supposed to look like for an extended period of time. And you can make an argument that even this year, we won't get to see it because Brazel was supposed to give them even more flexibility. But I do think that with Coker and McMillan, and you've even seen the slot usage for McMillan in the preseason, this is the best collection of

past catchers, the Panthers will have ever had by far coming into the year that Bryce Young has had. Add Jonathan Brooks to that mix as well, just in the sense that now having somebody to do some work after the catch and creates a manufacturer touches to where we had absolutely no one with that skill set of skill set. This is the best set of circumstances Bryce Young has ever walked into. And I think you could talk yourself into it being better and looking better because of that. But to Derek's point, how much better. And I think that when you're looking at some of these guys who have highly drafted and that teams have moved on from the downside part of the downside to that is well what if he goes and succeeds somewhere else that's what happened with baker that's what

happened with sam darnald and again to derrick's point i don't think the talent is at a level that you should be worried about what it's going to look like down the road if you let it get out of your building and i think part of the thought process dave with what's the right number there's some element of that where it's like all right if you're spending 35 instead of 60 and you can use that surplus of 25 million to build the rest of your roster out does that slightly close the gap between what his ceiling is and what another quarterback ceiling is i would make an argument that the opportunity cost of not trying to seek out a better quarterback that's what you lose it's not about the money you're paying it's about the fact that you're not trying to upgrade at that spot and you're pigeonholing yourself into such a specific version of what the offense has to be, that it doesn't really matter what you're paying him. The fact that you've tabbed him as the starter is the biggest price that you're ultimately going to be paying. Now I'm just wondering, like, is the crossroads whether or not Bryce can play well enough to

convince the Panthers not to fish in those waters for one more year? I mean, is that really what we're talking about? Yeah. I think so. Yeah. And be like, for me, for me personally, I, I don't realistically see a world where it to me in my eyes, he is worth extending or keeping around or being the long-term option.

But I do think there is a world where he plays well enough. They win 10 games. And the Panthers just kind of go, well, shit, what else are we going to do? And so I think that that world exists. And I think if he can do that, again, that is going to get him paid. I just think really trying to thread a pretty fine needle to even arrive there. I will say, though, even as the Bryce guy, let's say that happens. I would let Bryce play out the option before I worried about

offering him a major deal. Assuming he wants a lot of money, which I'm guessing he would. So that, I mean, that is the beauty of picking up the option. Again, in this landscape,

$26 million just isn't that much money. And if it buys you one more year of time to figure your shit out, I think it's well worth it. That's about what you're paying the room. If you have to go out and, I mean, I don't know if Baker gets out of the building, but let's just use Baker as a stand-in player.

You know what? Let's not even use Baker. Here's the quarterback I will use instead of Baker because I think this is the guy that actually will be in the conversation for how much do you want to pay a mid-tier resurrected first-round pick? Mack Jones. Mac Jones is, I think, the stand-in of this type of player for next year. If you give Mac Jones something that is like a slight downgrade

or even the Sam Darnold contract, in year one, you are paying him probably $12 million against the count. You combine that with Bryce Young, it's $36 million. You're paying your quarterback room $36 million. You can live with that. That's, I think that's the thought, is that you know, you're not, like, there aren't free agent quarterbacks that you have to spend that much more on in the market. If you're going to go the veteran route because you won nine games, you don't have an option

to draft somebody, you're probably going to be paying your room still combined $35-ish million against the cap, which you could absolutely do for one single year before you move on from the Bryce contract. I will say it's it's Baker and Mac as far as quarterbacks that have proven they can make some sort of difference. I mean, that's really what you're talking about next year. As far as like guys, that'll be free agents. So next year might not be.

And Baker will be. Excuse me, Mac will be. Mac will be a free agent next year. Yes. There's a chance Baker might get tagged or whatever. Yeah. Let's move on to our next guy here. I want to talk a little bit about J-1-Hertz. heading into a new offense, no A.J. Brown.

The first part of this conversation, I wanted to reserve a little bit of it to clear up some of the stuff that was happening with the table discussion last week. The response that happened to that show, I don't want to ignore that. Like, it was loud enough, and I think people asked the right questions that deserve, like, some sort of, like, self-reflection on our end of that. Where the thought was, why are you not willing to give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt, while you're willing to give so much, many of the other teams the benefit of the doubt. And you look back at like the 2024 Eagles and their ability to win the Super Bowl and like why is the situation different. And I want to be very clear about why I have reservations about the Eagles and I don't

want to dance around it. I have doubts about the quality of the passing game and the consistency of the passing game. Point blank period. Like I don't, there's no reason to like sugarcoat that or like couch it in some other framing. If you look at the last 10 years since. 2016, which is when we have next-gen stats, there are two teams in the past 10 years that have won the Super Bowl with a passing success rate outside the top 10 that season.

Tom Brady in 2020. So Tom Brady. And Jalen Hertz in 2024. The Eagles that year when they won the Super Bowl in 2024 ran the ball on 54. On 54.7% of their plays during the playoffs. There are two teams. teams that have won the Super Bowl since 2005 that have cracked 53%.

The other team is the 2005 Steelers. So it's been 20 years since the team ran the ball of that much in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl. I think the way that a Jalen Hertz led offense won the Super Bowl was incredibly specific with the best offense in the league. And I have my doubts in a worse set of circumstances. If this was happening with an average supporting cast or a supporting cast that we thought was getting better, then maybe I think you could talk yourself into them not needing that level of specificity to do it again. The circumstances are worse.

He did that with the best, most explosive running game in the league, arguably, and A.J. Brown and Devante Smith as the receivers on that team. The environment is worse now than it was that. And so that's why I land where I land. Again, two teams since 2016 had a pass. passing game that was outside the top 10 in success rate. The Seahawks were third last season. The EPA pro-dropback numbers were bad because there were some turnovers.

But in terms of consistency, they were one of the most consistent passing offenses in the league for a good majority of the year. And that is where to me there is a gap between the Eagles and everybody else. And I think the two teams, as it relates to the table conversation, where you could argue that there's a double standard would be the Broncos and the Texans. I have the same reservations about the Broncos. Yes. The quality and consistency of the passing game.

The difference with the Broncos is, I think you can make an argument that the environment there isn't proving. They've added Jaylen Waddle to this thing. You have a quarterback going into year three. I can talk myself into that being on a positive trajectory because I think Bill Nix's best environment is the one he's currently walking into.

The other one would be the Texans, and I think the Texans have a chance to be a special defense. And the bar that you need to clear offensively when you have a special all-time defense is different to me than the bar that a normal offense has to clear in order to win the Super Bowl. And so I just wanted to have a little bit of clarity around that conversation because I don't think I was clear enough when we did it last week. And that to me is like the starting point of the J-1-Herts discussion is that even in great circumstances, they have not been a consistent

enough passing game for me to consistently feel good about it's just a narrow pathway for him to get there and i know that people will probably rebuttal and say well they got there in 20 was it 2022 as well they had a 42% success rate in the playoffs in 2020 is a passing game 48 to 50 is typically where you need to go to be a top 10 offense and that was in 2022 yes yeah yeah like he did not play all that i mean he played pretty well in the super bowl but up until that run they were not all that good and I would also say like the offensive line now compared to where it was in either 2024, 2022, I think you just have more questions. Like Lane Johnson is older.

He's been a lot more banged up. Landon Dickerson, I don't know if he'll ever be as healthy as you want him to be. So I think you have some questions there. I think right guard, I mean, has always been a little bit up and down, especially even in 2024, they got lucky with Beckton. But I think right guard is a little bit of an issue for them now. And I would also say again compared to 2024, you don't have AJ Brown. And I know that last year was weird, but like, AJ Brown's a.

really, really good player. And the other difference I would say, too, is that with 2022 and 24, the offensive coordinators, even if we didn't think that they were necessarily superstars going into that job or at the time, they'd done it before. They'd done the job. And like with Kellan Moore, we'd had some proof of concept that like, okay, he kind of knows what he's doing here. We just don't know with Sean Mannion. Maybe he's incredible. But I just think it's harder to like go into it with the like, okay, this is stabilized sense that we could have had in 2024. I think it's a lot. I think it's is just harder to get there in 20 in 2026 to bring it back to this conversation when you've seen all these other structural changes with quarterbacks around the league over the last four or five years

dac to me last year is a perfect example of this where they had a very specific way that they played offense going back to like the kellyn more stuff in dallas and they carried over so much of that into the mike mccarthy era when they hire brian schottenheimer and clayton adams they started doing more stuff that just made things easier on the quarterback and the argument was that even if we can put all this stuff on the quarterback. This is a way to make things a little bit easier on him and get a really good version of him. And I think that's been the case with a lot of these guys. Joe Burrow, we're having that conversation.

I think Mahomes are having that conversation right now. The crossroads thing, what Jay One Hertz is, it's the exact same thought process. Can he do it? Like, can we get to a place where taking some of the load off him in this sort of offense gets to, like, it gets the offense to a world where it does feel a little bit more adaptable and a little bit more dangerous, even without. that massive talent advantage that they had when they were at their best two years ago. And that's the question.

Like, is this enough if you make things a little bit easier on everybody for us to get a version of this quarterback that can keep this team really dangerous and competitive? And I think that's the crossroad moment. And I don't know the answer to that. I think the other thing that I would bring up and why I'm quicker to believe in the Eagles than you guys are is I am just more willing to give the business. benefit of the doubt to things that I've seen happen before. And ironically, of course, so much of it's going to hinge on Sean Manion, which is something we can't know. We know how bad this has been when the wrong guy is calling the plays for this offense. But I'm not willing to give up on the things that the Eagles have that work well so quickly, mainly the offensive line and the running

game achieving a higher ceiling than it did last year. And I've said before, I know AJ Brown's not there. I think the world of Devante Smith, and I think this passing game can operate at a, like, at a good level, like behind Devante Smith with everybody else sort of filtering in behind him. I really do think he is that caliber of receiver. It's going to hinge on Jalen Hertz playing better than he did last year, obviously. And funnily enough, I'm not even a big believer in Jalen Hertz, but I am a believer in the, infrastructure that the Eagles have built over the last four years. And if we're going back to the table conversation, a defense that I just have the utmost faith in to make all of that right even when they're not clicking. I just, I've seen this team, A, look amazing and B, win a lot of

games when they don't look amazing. And that just, that carries a lot of weight for me, even in a year of transition. I think where I'm at with it is that we haven't seen him do this before. If, if the offense is structurally different, I don't think that we've seen him do this before. Because I think, I think what we've seen him do before to me is extremely specific. And that's what I was going to say. Like,

I think that across every generation of the league, that there are always a handful of quarterbacks who can be very productive and very good for like a five-year period in a very specific way. Jimmy G. was this. Tua was this. Like there are guys that like Carson Wentz, being what he was at the top of the RPA revolution.

Like you can kind of make guys really productive. over very short periods until the league catches up or they need to change whatever it's going to be. This has to be that moment for him because I brought it up before. Like, that's kind of what it was with Lamar Jackson in, you know, whenever they brought in Todd Monkin and I think in 2022.

Like it had to be different. He needed to grow. He needed to change. And I think that this moment for Jalen Hertz is more akin to that than some of the other things that we've talked about. And so I think if he can do it, like he has the talent to do it. I just think that, again, like he's been a very specific player

up to this point in his career. And I think some of what it would require for this offense to work where it's throwing more over the middle. It's a little bit more under center play action. It's stuff that requires pocket presence and vision over the middle and trigger over the middle that I just haven't seen from him consistently that he needs to prove to me.

And so I think it's just, it's a lot of stuff that I haven't seen before that I would like to see from me. Yeah. And I think that's where I land with it. And it's like, I feel like, again, just kind of like stepping back. and trying to acknowledge and examine why the conversation happened

the way that it happened and some of the things that we just like treated as givens. The idea that we're in a more defense first place or you can lean on defense more to be a championship caliber team, to me, is real, right? Like there are pathways there that it didn't feel like there was four or five years ago. But again, like, you still have to have a consistent passing offense as part of this. Like, I'd still rather bet on the consistent. passing offense, that is a more prominent trait and a more consistent trait of the teams

that ultimately win the Super Bowl. Like the Eagles, like, well, we've seen them do this before. We saw them do this in a more specific way than any Super Bowl champion has done in the last decade. And I just don't know how possible that is again. Like, he needs to be a different player than he has ever been before for them to get back to a place where they can win the Super Bowl. And I don't know if that's possible.

Jalen Hertz's best season as a passer from a success rate standpoint was a 2024 season when he threw for 2,900 yards. Like it just, it was such a specific type of offense and I wonder how whether they can continue to do that. That's it. And the crossroads moment is he needs to be a different player in terms of like what has asked of him within the offense than he's ever been before simply because the offense is so drastically different.

Like I just don't think that's a controversial thing to think or say coming into the season about him. The interesting question for me with Jalen Hertz is it's easy to get enamored with the way Philly does business. And like we, you know, I talk all the time about how far out they are in front of these things. They traded Carson Wince and took on the $34 million cap hit when they felt like it was time and that paved the way for Jalen Hertz.

I just wonder how short the leash really is. Like how, how realistic is it to talk about this is like, like a make or break year for Jalen Hertz. Because like if you look at the numbers, they can move that deal if they want to without it. Yes, they can't. Without it ruining their lives.

But are they going to be that quick to do it? Like let's just say this year's kind of middling and frustrating and, and the bottom doesn't drop out, but it's not great. Is that enough to prompt wholesale change? For most teams in the NFL, I would say no, but Philadelphia,

I don't know. That's kind of their calling card. Yeah. I feel like he's not playing for his job this year, obviously. At least I don't think. Even if Philly is a little bit more willing to do some of that stuff willy-nilly than some other teams. I do think, though, that if this year is pretty middling

and he's 20th in QBR or whatever, and the team only wins nine games and maybe they get bombed in the wild card, whatever. I think if it's that sort of season, I do think next year he's playing for his job. I think this year it would have to be like truly a disaster for them to even think about that. But I do think that if he doesn't change

and he's not an improved player. I think next year they'll go into it like, okay, you're 30 now and you're the same player that you have been for five years. This is kind of, this is the maker break. And so that's kind of where I'm at with it. And again, I think that's the, the crossroads becomes the urgency

that we feel after this season. And I do think that that's exactly where I sit with Jalen Hertz. There's a reason that they change so many elements of the offense. They know that they need to be the sort of team and the sort of offense they've never been before. and I think the how much of that he has to carry is more than it's ever been in a world without AJ Brown and whether he can do that I think becomes the central question.

Let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a couple more of these guys. All right. So no one accuses me of just playing favorites here. The next guy that we're going to talk about that I also think is at a crossroads coming into this season is Justin Herbert. I mean, this is the first time he's had a play caller

where everyone is like, this rocks. This is a, this is a, what is your excuse now if this season does not go well for Justin Herbert? And I think, and that is the, like, that's the response that, like, the Justin Herbert haters will take on. And I think they will be more than justified in approaching it that way, depending how this goes. I think that's the thing is that I think a lot of people already kind of view him in the, like, oh, he can't do it. if X, Y, and Z. But I do think that assuming the offensive line is relatively healthy and goes into the postseason fine, which start.

It's the Chargers. I don't know. Yeah. Given that and like given that Mike McDaniel, again, like he's like, you know, Kellynne Moore has been there before and he's fine. But like, Mike McDaniel is one of the dudes. This would be the time that it's like, okay, if they can't put it together now, I think some of the criticism starts to be legit.

And again, I don't think that this is a spot where it's like, if it's not perfect, they're going to think about moving on. Like I think there's nobody in the building that is. even sort of thinking about moving on from him until he breaks and shatters. But I think it does just, this is one where it shifts the narrative of how willing are people to defend him as like the fifth best quarterback in the NFL. Yes. This is a narrative stuff.

A narrative. This is a narrative. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Oh, yeah. Justin Herbert's going to be the quarterback of the Chargers.

It's more about how quick are people willing to defend him and how much is he willing to get, how much are people willing to give him the benefit of the doubt? because if you were somebody who wants to argue for Justin Herbert, the easiest place you could consistently go over the last couple of years is like the two guys that were his offensive coordinators previously was Joe Lombardi and then Greg Roman, both of whom lost their jobs last year as offensive coordinators. Mike McDaniel was a former head coach who is in a completely different tier when it comes to the results he has gotten from non-MVP quarterbacks.

Like Greg Roman with Lamar Jackson, they reached very high highs in 2019. The highs were not that far off from. what Mike McDaniel was doing with Tuatong of Iloa. And so this is just a different thing. And I think that's where people are going to turn if Justin Herbert hits any sort of stretch where it doesn't look great this year. It's like, all right, we gave him Mike McDaniel. Now what?

Like what else does it? What else do you guys want who think this guy walks on water? You know what this made me think of? And I don't want to hear any bullshit about favoritism because I wanted the Eagles to be at the table. So it has nothing to do with that. but when I hear this, I just think about the fact that Stafford

threw for 45,000 yards and 300 touchdowns in Detroit and didn't win his first playoff game until he got to the Rams. And like, that, if you don't want to hear that, that's fine. And if you think Matthew Stafford underperformed in Detroit, that's also fine. Doesn't change the fact that he's really good. Maybe the crossroads should be L.A. Chargers,

harness your quarterback before he's too old and wants a trade out of town. It's not to say that we should absolve him of anything. And you can levy all the criticism you want at Justin Herbert. That's fine. I even, I'll take it back. I got receipts, man. I had Stafford over Herbert before last year even started.

But I still think at the end of the day, he's a quarterback that you should be able to build a good team around. And if you can't do it over enough years, I just think it says more about you than him. But maybe I'm maybe I am. I am excuse making, though. people like there are people that talk about him like he's Jesus Christ like it at a certain point like I think that's what needs to happen and I I'm pointing the finger at myself here as much as anybody I think I've been guilty of some of this stuff and I think that's why I'm trying to bring a little self-reflection to this process when I look at Herbert specifically and we look at last year here's here's what I think

has happened when there was a stretch with Lombardi where all I wanted from Justin Herbert was more aggressiveness, a little bit of a looser play style. Like, you are a freak. I want to feel the physical anomaly that you are playing this position and what you can bring to it. And there was a stretch at points over the last two seasons where you did start to feel that a little bit. He was scrambling a little bit more.

He was pushing the ball down field a little bit more. But last year, the game I would point to that I think is really telling example of this. The Philly game, they don't survive that game with a different sort of quarterback than him. But I think him needing to play that way last year where he's scrambling so much, he's taking off all the time.

He's trying to carry all of it led to some really bad habits when he had to start playing quarterback in a normal way as we got into the playoffs. He's never properly calibrated all of this, all the exact combination and in the right ratios that I think he needs to in order to sustain success as the best possible version of himself.

I don't think that's really happened. No, it hasn't. And I would kind of like, to Dave's point, I think that that's often the reality for guys who are playing on imperfect franchises that are supremely talented or like, you know, don't strike when the iron is hot. Like I think Lamar Jackson's journey was a little bit different because they came into the league and like they just found this thing

that nobody else was doing. And I don't think that Justin Herbert has quite had that. So he's had years where he's really good at this and then years where he's really good at this. And now the scrambling is he's better at it. But now there's games where he's forced to do it too much like the Philly game. And then even the playoff game this year, like New England just blitzed the shit out of them. And they couldn't pick up anything. And he was by the end of it, they were like, we can't call anything, but let him just run, basically.

And so I think that had led to some bad habits. And so I think you worry about that. But today's other point about Stafford, he goes to the Rams and obviously I think becomes a different player, but is also allowed to be the best version of himself. I think what you're hoping for here, if you're the charges, is that you're bringing the Rams to Justin Herbert. Exactly.

You are bringing Mike McDaniel and that, like, magic to him. And so I do think that there's a world where Justin or Jim Harbaugh got a lot of the, hey, can you just play looser? Can you scramble more? Can you just chuck it down the field more? I think he has gotten that out of him. The offensive infrastructure and offensive line play just has not been to the level where that's gotten the most fruits that you can at.

of it. I do think that Mike McDaniel can be the final like, okay, you're, it's stable around you now. Go, go do it, big man. Go go be the fourth most productive quarterback in the league, whatever it's going to be. I like this take at the end of the day because I just, I don't know how much you're going to change my opinion that Justin Herbert is a supremely talented quarterback. But if Mike McDaniel can't unlock another layer of explosiveness and consistency, then I don't think it changes how talented he is, but it can certainly change where he needs to land when we have these types of off-season conversations.

That's exactly it. And what Derek just said to me is exactly right. And I believe this can happen. Like I do think these are the circumstances under which this can happen. But if it doesn't, then I do think that we have to, there's some revisiting that has to happen. And so I am willing to take the optimistic view on this.

We're doing the AFC-West preview first. and like I'm excited to watch this. You know, like I'm excited to have that conversation. But I think that if we get to the end of the year and that calibration still feels off, even if the offensive line play is imperfect, I think the environmental considerations here are very different than they have been.

And so I think that is why it feels a little bit different for Justin Herbert heading into this season than it has for a little while. All right, two more guys we wanted to hit here fairly quickly. Let's talk a little bit about Michael Pennix. and what his crossroads moment potentially looks like this year. Derek, I think this was your suggestion that you want to talk about panics. Why did you feel like Michael Pennix fit this exercise?

Well, he's actually interesting to me from a lot of the other young quarterbacks where I think, I think with so many young quarterbacks were just like, we want to make the argument that like whatever flashes we see it like it means he's good. I actually think, or it means that he can be really good down the line. I think Michael Pennix has enough obvious flaws that it's hard for me to see. him ever really like developing into a top 12 guy. I think you have the injury history. It's pretty immobile and inflexible. Doesn't really have touch on the ball. All of that being said, I'm pretty confident he's like a mature NFL quarterback. Like he has a process with which he plays the game. He's

willing to make these deep and aggressive throws outside the numbers. He gets to his checkdown really quickly. He's a guy who doesn't really take that many negative plays. Like he doesn't get sacked, doesn't throw all that many interceptions. Like I think he has a pretty clear process with which he plays the game and even production-wise, and I know that he's throwing to Drake London, Kyle Pitts is good, Bejohn Robinson, all this stuff. His numbers production-wise have been better than some of the other guys that we're talking about, like some of these other guys at Crossroads. Like, I mean, just statistically, like, he's significantly better than Bryce Young was. And really, like, compared to last year, he's not, like, that dramatically far off from what C.J. Stroud has been over the past

couple years if you put the numbers together cumulatively, like, in terms of EPA per dropback. So I just think he's in a spot where he's going to be fighting for, is this a guy we want to commit to long term? And I think doing that with a new staff is always tricky. Like it's not the regime necessarily who drafted you. It's not the coaching staff who drafted you. But I do think that there's a chance that he shows enough, he flashes enough where he's a guy who maybe three years from now bounces around a little bit and stumbles into another starting position.

And I think whether or not he flashes enough for that to be something that he can actually hold on to the next couple of years, that to me is the crossroads. like to Robert take this opportunity to issue a little bit of a mea culpa because when we've talked about the Falcons over the course of training camp, I've been the one following the tea leaves and the breadcrumbs and saying, yeah, I mean, this is to a Tunga Viloa all the way and Michael Pinnix might not ever get that opportunity. And I had a lot of confidence that might be the case because you can kind of hide a quarterback in the preseason, even if he's not very good. Tua's been that bad that you can't really hide him in the preseason, which is a terrible sign.

And it's not that I thought Tua was going to be great in Atlanta. I thought you might at least be able to get a month into the season before we started having a conversation about making a switch. And sitting here on August 24th, I'm legitimately curious if Tua even makes it to week one. That's how bad it's been. So maybe I wasn't giving Michael Pinnock's enough credit for having a shot to, flip the script. I think he'll make it to week one. I think he'll make it to week one for two reasons.

One, day to day it has not looked as bad as it did in the preseason games. And I think that's worth weighing, even if the preseason games were bad. But more importantly, Michael Pennix just got cleared. Yeah, I know. Like yesterday. I don't think there is, he's done a lot of like seven on seven work, but he's done none, like no teamwork. And so I just don't know if, based purely on,

like feel and how often he's been out there if he's going to be ready to play by the time the season starts. That being said, how quickly it happens two, three weeks into the season, Michael Pennix is going to play this year. We are going to see Michael Pennix this year. The only circumstances in which we would not see Michael Pennix this year is if Tua just lights the world on fire at the start of the season. How confident are we in that happening?

None confident. None. Yeah, I was trying to look for the words for it, but none is good. That'll suffice. Michael Penix is going to play. And whether he plays well enough to stave off them drafting a quarterback next year, them seeking out another quarterback next year, I think that also becomes part of the conversation.

Like Michael Penix's crossroads to me is he's going to play this year. By the time we get to the end of the year, has he done well enough where when we talk about the Falcons quarterback situation next season, It's Michael Pennex and some token competition over Michael Pennex happens to be on the roster and they drafted guy in the top 10. I think that's ultimately what it comes down to. Yeah, I don't know how confident I am and him being a long-term positive answer. I think I'm kind of with Derek on that.

Like, I think he'll have a career. I think he'll get another shot at one point. Whether he's the Falcon's answer, I don't know the answer. I'm not sure about that. But I think whether he's in their potential plans for next year or even as part of a competition, that to me feels like the most important thing that can happen to him. And I even think there's a world where he plays okay this year and just maybe depending on where the Falcons are at,

draft order-wise, like they still take a quarterback anyway and move on from him. I think to me the biggest crossroads is like in two years when he's off the team and he's not signed a new deal with them, are people interested that he's signing somewhere and being like maybe this is a competition or he's really high-level backup like a Jacoby Bresset or Joe Flacco or just just nobody care where he signed?

and we just like forget about it until he plays in the preseason. That to me is kind of like the difference of what he's able to show this year. Is he intriguing trade bait if the Falcons are in position to draft a quarterback next year? Right. Like if they drafts, it doesn't really matter what quarterback is. If they draft someone at seventh overall, do you want, exactly, do you want to trade Michael Pennings? Or is it just like, who cares? Like, it doesn't matter.

Is he one of the names we throw out and we're talking about Mack Jones and Baker next spring? As if you need a side road answer, is he one of the. those guys. I think that is a good outcome for Michael Pettix, wherever it happens to be. Last one here that we wanted to hit, this is a pretty obvious one. Malik Willis is a quarterback hitting a crossroads this year. Talking about teams that maybe in a position to draft a quarterback and whether they are speaks to what we saw from this guy over the course of the season, Derek. Malik Willis may be the best example of this.

Yeah, I mean, a lot of times these guys who are coming to the league as backups, or, you know, mid and late round picks and spend a lot of time on the bench. and then get signed in this way where like you can go and be the guy, you might only get one opportunity to do that. You might only get your one chance. And I think that this reminds me a little bit of two different scenarios. It reminds me of like Matt Flynn kind of getting this chance. And it reminds me of Tyrod Taylor getting this chance.

You know, he had been with the Ravens for a very long time and then goes over to the bills. And the circumstances of the contract were different. Like Malik Willis is getting like starter money, whereas Tyrod signed like a one year, $3 million deal. But there wasn't very serious competition when he signed that deal. deal. And then he immediately was able to take over that job and he wasn't great, but he played like mid-level quarterback play and they immediately extended him after that season. And so I think that's what you're hoping for if you're Malik Willis. And obviously I think, and I think it's going

to be hard to show that because it's not a great roster, right? But I think he's at least going to have the chance to be alive and make some plays because that offensive line will keep him upright. To be alive? Listen, some of these guys signed deals on. bad teams and they're just getting nuked. And I don't think that that will be the case with Miami and Moogh Willis. Like the offensive line has some talent. Like I think the left tackle is promising. You draft the first round guard. The center is about as good as anybody in football. Savonaya, I think showed some stuff last year. Like the offensive line should be quality. And Devon A chance is a good running back. So the past catchers, whatever. But like,

there's enough here that he might flash something. And I think that maybe there's a world where he plays fine enough. They still get the third pick. They still take a quarterback. But if he plays well enough even in those scenarios, maybe a year or two from now, if somebody wants to trade for him or give him another chance. Like, this, I think, kind of is his audition to be like, I am good enough to do this. I just wonder what the past catching situation looks like. Like, the idea that it's Malik Washington, Caleb, like, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, I think there's reason to be excited about what we saw in the preseason and Chris Bell just

as a prospect. But those are, we're talking about third round rookies that are going to be prominently featured as part of this. Like, Greg Dolchitz. That's the question I have. I'm honestly excited to watch it. Like, I'm curious about what the Dolphins offense is going to look like. But even if the offensive line is good, I think there are enough potential concerns with the past catchers where this thing could still look pretty ugly over the course of the entire year.

And that's my main concern, which sounds bleak. I am excited to watch the Dolphins. I think they're a legitimately interesting team. But Malik Willis could play pretty well. And to Derek's point, they could still have a big, big draft pick that, you know, you just have. have to take a quarterback when you're picking that high in the draft. You've seen the defensive personnel? That's what I'm saying.

Even if the offense is good. Malik Willis could be solid and they could still be taking a quarterback very highly in the draft. I think this contract doesn't tie the dolphins to anything. And so I feel for Malik Willis a little bit. And again, I don't think this is necessarily about him being the Dolphins long-term starting quarterback. I just think that if he can play well enough, will somebody else want to give you the chance? Because I think, again, sometimes the backups don't get it, whereas guys,

Guys who are like top 10 draft picks just get chance after chance. I mean, again, how many chances did Sam Darnold get? Justin Fields was not really good at any point and got paid three different times. Well, I mean, two if you count, if you don't count him being drafted. But two different teams paid him to be the starter. He was also traded for this year. Yes. Yes.

Like I just, I don't know if Malik Willis gets that if it doesn't go well enough. But I can see the world where he flashes enough. This team still wins two games to draft somebody else. But somebody is like, well, you have Archmanning. Can we get the other guy? I think that that's $20 million base salary. That is more than doable if you're a team looking for an off-ramp. And so I think it's, we have some names that could make next Springs quarterback carousel

look a lot more interesting than it currently looks. And I think those would be positive outcomes for these crossroads players that we're talking about. All right. That is all we've got for today. Like I mentioned at the top, we will be back tomorrow with the AFC West preview. Kicking off the division previews, I'll have one a day. for the next eight days on this show, only interrupted by us

having our last training camp notebook on Saturday with the Beatwriters, which I'm about to go record with Matt Schneiderman right now, which is why I have to go. But we will be here with the Division Prevues tomorrow. Looking forward to it.

For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard,

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