The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Remaining QB questions with Lindsay Jones + how schematic trends may shape the NFL Draft with Seth Galina

Episode Date: April 2, 2021

Who will the 49ers target now that they’ve traded up? What will the Falcons do with the No. 4 pick? Are the Broncos desperate to add competition to the quarterback room? Robert Mays and Lindsay Jones discuss the top QB questions that remain ahead of the NFL Draft. Plus, PFF’s Seth Galina joins the show to break down key schematic trends that could shape the way teams approach the draft. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. Seth Galena from PFF is going to be joining us a little bit later to talk about how some of the schematic trends in the NFL may impact the draft. How we value players, what types of players teams might be looking for. Very excited to dig into all that.

Before we do that, though, very happy to welcome my good friend, Lindsay Jones. Lindsay, how are you? I am great, Robert. I am excited to join. the draft discussion now. We've did so much free agency. So now it's its draft season. Let's go. It's April. So I cheated with this. I wrote a very similar piece for the athletic that's running today. And I figured we'd double dip because I haven't had a lot of these discussions with you. And they'd be fresh. And I also think that it's a natural extension of some of the stuff we've talked about over the last week.

And obviously the Niners trade up is the first quarterback domino to fall in what is going to be a historic quarterback draft, whatever you think of the prospects, we're going to have more quarterbacks drafted in the top four, top five than we have in a very long time. And I think the Niners move impacts pretty much the rest of the top 10 and how it could go and everything else. So now that that Domino has fallen, I wanted to explore the next ones to fall. What are the quarterback questions that still remain after that trade happened? And because I haven't talked about it with you, I wanted to start with who you think the Niners are drafting at number three. Because we talked. We talked about it. We talked about talked about in the last couple shows, but as the information has started to trickle out,

and as I've done more reading into and conspiracy theorizing about everything Kyle Shanahan has ever excited about the quarterback position, I have new thoughts on it. But I want to start with you. Who do you think the Niners are drafting at number three? Okay. So when the trade first happened, I mean, within the first 30 minutes, you know, before Chris Sims or whoever it was that first said the, uh, the Mac Jones thing, Mac Jones wasn't even necessarily on the radar there, I mean, it was like, oh, this has to be for Justin Fields or Trey Lance, and he must know who the Jets are taking. He must feel supremely confident. When I say he, I mean, Kyle Shanahan and also John Lynch, they must feel supremely confident in what the Jets are going to do at number two so that they know which quarterback they were going up to get.

You don't necessarily move up there if you're not taking a quarterback. Would it be hilarious if they just picked Kyle Pitts? Or like, I don't know, Micah Parsons or. Penny Sewell or whoever it is. But yeah, I mean, you don't, you don't give up that much as much as they did if you're not going to get a quarterback. I mean, there is a lot of smoke with the, the Mac Jones thing. I mean, this would be a tremendous ruse by like, we're all going to his pro day and I'm going to make sure I'm on camera spending all this time talking to Nick Sabin for it not to be true. But it also sounds like they're going to Columbus to watch Justin Fields

throw at his second little pro day that they're doing. So, yeah, I mean, yeah. So, yeah. Okay. I don't know. I just think he fits, he fits like the Shanahan quarterback mold, like the guys that he's been successful with, you know, the Matt Shub, Kurt Cousins, Matt Ryan kind of guy. It's just not a sexy move to do it. Pick number three, when there are these other guys who, to steal your phrasing are, have a lot more traits than the Mac Jones does. I have been saying traits a lot.

I have to stop saying that so much. I'm finished listening to you and Nate break down on the quarterback. So it's all in my head right now. So here's where I land on the Niners at quarterback right now. I was listening to the Cowshanahan Press Conference that they did after the trade. And I had many takeaways, the first of which is Kyle Shanahan is done with this shit. He is so, so tired of having to hide this stuff and cloak his language and everything else. I mean, you can just clearly see him get his patience evaporating with every passing moment,

which I've really enjoyed. But he said something I thought was so interesting. He admitted that absolutely he has been chasing Kirk Cousins in the past. They wanted to draft him in Washington, and then he said with some disdain, I got to coach him for three games and then I was fired. And then I wanted to bring him here when he was a free agent. But then we got Jimmy. And then he said something that I am attaching myself to way more than I should probably.

He said, I wanted Kirk, but that's not how you draw it up. if you were going to draw it up, you would pick the biggest, strongest, fastest guy who's also the best quarterback in the pocket. And I think that is the important takeaway here. So that's kind of my thing. And what I wrote today, I said, we shouldn't read too much into one sentence

and I'm going to do it anyway. And that's what I'm going to do here. Because I think that's a really important thing to consider with this. Because them wanting Kirk Cousins or even Jimmy Garapola, those were guys that they needed to get or needed to chase because there are only so many available quarterbacks in the pipeline. You have to think about supply and demand at the position when you're figuring out what your solution is. And the way that he framed cousins was you can win with him.

Other teams have. When you're sitting at number three in a quarterback loaded draft with guys that are very talented and you traded away two future first round picks that come do it, you are no longer beholden to the quarterback pipeline and the limited options. You have them. You don't have to draft a guy that is only going to succeed if you give him answers. You can draft a guy who you don't have to make look right all the time. He can make you look right even when you didn't call the right play.

And that's just why in my mind it's become harder and harder for me to believe that they would do all of this for a guy they needed to put in the right circumstances, not a guy that would put them in the right circumstances. So for all the smoke and all of the intrigue about Mack Jones, I am right now as we sit here on April 1st at 5.30 p.m. Central time believing that they are not going to draft Mack Jones. So I know this is not part of the question, but are we just completely convinced that the Jets are taking Zach Wilson? Like, is that just a foregone conclusion that we're pretty sure that that's happening? That's what it seems to be, it seems to be trending that way. It seems like people that know more than me think that's what's going to happen.

So I don't know. I don't know if it's a foregone conclusion, but everything that I've heard seems to be, it seems to say that that's what's going to happen. I mean, what's been so fun about this last week is that, you know, we'll take Trevor Lawrence out of it because he's not working out. But almost every day over the last week, it was like, Zach Wilson just had the best pro day I've ever seen. And now Justin Fields just had the best pro day I've ever seen. And look at these ridiculous throws.

And, you know, now we're going to be able to go back. And I mean, I'm sure we'll find some like crazy Trey Lance throws that'll make him look awesome. and, you know, Mack Jones is obviously, like, climbing really quickly and everybody's going back and looking at some of his best throws. So this, there's so much intrigue. This is the least the number one overall pick has been talked about in a very long time. We even knew that Joe Burrow was going number one last year. There was zero question, but we were at least talking about Joe Burrow.

Because there was a question whether he wanted to go to Cincinnati and there was that whole thing around the combine, which was always silly. But it's like, I mean, that is. just such a foregone conclusion and there's just so much intrigue with every other position, all the other teams within the top 10, these other teams that could be climbing up, which we're going to get into right now. But, you know, I guess, you know, I am not quite as far along in my quarterback evaluation as you and Nate were in that in that show yesterday. But the more I see of Justin Fields, it just like kind of blows my mind that why is he kind of the guy who might be getting bumped down because of Zach Wilson and because of this potential Shanahan infatuation with

back Jones. It just seems like. shouldn't he be the guy? I mean, shouldn't he, he looks like he's everything that you want in a quarterback. I just keep thinking about the quarterback run stuff they'd be able to do with him. And that element folded into their offense with Trent Williams in space and him and George Kittle on the edge. There are so many aspects to what he could provide them that would just make them dynamic and terrifying. I don't know. I don't, it's going off nothing but my gut and my reading of,

what Kyle Shanahan is saying. I feel like I'm just pepe-silvying all of this where there's just everything is on my wall here behind me and I'm trying to figure out where the strings are going. It's crazy talk. But I do think right now that it would not make sense based on where they are and what they gave up to go with Mack Jones or those other guys. But that nothing has changed in the last week. It's just my read and feel on the situation, which is all that really matters here. And I do think it's important that it was in that press conference. I believe the press conference with John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan after the trade, that they said they don't have to hide anymore,

you know, that they can kind of just, you can go out and evaluate all the guys. You can go to Justin Fields' private workout in Columbus. You can go to Tuscaloosa to look at Mack Jones. You could take another trip to Fargo, you know, whatever is within the NFL's rules. Beautiful this time of year. I'm sure it is. Can't be worse than all these places I'm watching play opening day today

where it's like snowing in Detroit and they're playing baseball right now. or they played earlier today. You know, you kind of, everything's on the table now. All right. Let's move on to the number four pick because I think that that is now in a lot of ways where the draft starts. No matter who the Niners take a three, we know they're taking a quarterback. We know three quarterbacks will be off the board. So now a Falcons pick that I already thought was fascinating based on where they are as a franchise,

some of the moves they've made, Terry Fonno being in year one. I think there's so many things to consider. So now the question is, what do the Falcons? Falcons do with a fourth overall pick. And the conversation on that has changed a little bit in the last couple weeks. We've mentioned on this show. Matt Ryan restructured his deal. $21 million of his base salary was converted to a signing bonus,

which gives the Falcons $14 million in salary cap relief this year. But it also puts $7 million on his 22 cap and 23 cap that weren't there before. So at first glance, that seems, are they committing to him in future years? But I also think that was almost necessary. carrying a $40 million quarterback with an $185 million cap is almost impossible when you're not carrying over any cap space. So I don't know how much to read into that. So based on everything that you've looked at and your feel on the situation, what do you think the Falcons should do it for? And what do you think they end up doing it for?

Well, I think there might be some things here depends on what happened. Who do the Niners take? Sure. If the Niners take Mack Jones and you're able to take Justin Fields at four, I think you've got to take Justin Fields at four. I know you and Nate talked about Trey Lance there as a potential guy too, just as a guy who could sit a year. It would be a good situation. The thing is, is when you're in a position to draft a quarterback and you don't do it, you can really, really regret that decision. And they're in an okay place at that position, right?

I mean, they have Matt Ryan, who you obviously can win with. He's not that old. He's, you know, you spread out his cap hits over the next couple years. But ideally, you're not going to want to be in that top five again. And in a position where you, you would, in future years to draft a quarterback, theoretically, you'd have to be moving up. You'd have to be giving draft capital. And how many times do we see teams kind of get too cute? They pass up a guy.

They take somebody else there. They move back. And these might be, you know, this. might be the best quarterback class that we've seen in a very long time. And if you pass up the opportunity to take one, just because you have, you know, two more years of Matt Ryan, that might not be the best decision long term for your franchise. So if you can take Justin Fields at four, I think you should take Justin Fields at four. The one thing is that they could also trade back. That's going to be a really, really, really, really attractive spot. They have a ton of roster

holes. And if you can get three first round picks, something, you know, it's the Broncos, it's the Panthers, you can still stay in the top 10 and pick up some future firsts, that also might be, that might be real attractive. You might regret it if Justin Fields or Tray Lance become a Pro Bowl quarterback somewhere else. But, you know, that's a lot. If you can get a similar haul to what, you know, what the Niners gave up to move up to three, you know, you I think you've got to consider that really strongly. So there are three paths, right? One is trade back, which I think is a really good argument.

Trading back in a quarterback heavy drop when you can get a haul is usually a good idea. What the dolphins did, I commend them for it. I would recommend that pretty much every single time you can do it. Or you could pick someone there. Let's imagine Kyle Pitts on the Falcon's current offense with Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, an offensive line that has a lot of first round picks on it, and Arthur Smith pulling the levers there. That could work.

I'm interested in that. That sounds very fun to me. Or you go quarterback, and I'm completely with you on the reason for doing it. This is a team that had a minus 18 point differential last year. They were an 8 and 18 in a lot of different ways. I don't think they'll be picking in the top five anytime soon, especially with their offense likely to bounce back with Smith there.

This is a rare opportunity. The problem is if you draft a guy, at four overall. And you look at the dead cap hit that Matt Ryan has next year, which is now $40.5 million, and you don't want to eat that. And you're saying, we're going to sit the guy for two years. Then one of the reasons that you have an advantage with a rookie quarterback is the contract, and you're throwing away two years of it.

I don't think that's a reason not to do it, but it's an argument for why you would just stick with Matt Ryan, pick another player, and keep on going. Matt Ryan's cap hit next year is $48.7 million. They would still save $7 million against the cap if they were to trade him or release him, and they'd save about $24 million in cash. So that dead cap, it may not be prohibited from them moving on in a year, which I think is something to consider.

And it really does seem like this is just a rare opportunity to create a succession plan for a 36-year-old quarterback without having to do anything. You're not having to move up. You don't have to shift at all. There's no maneuvering that needs to happen. It's sitting there right now. And I think there's also a dynamic to consider when you're doing this, when you're creating a succession plan and bringing in a guy to take over for a quarterback who's been very, very good and underrated for almost a decade and a half. But this is one of those things where if you were to pick a trail answer or Justin Fields that they were there, couldn't you easily go to Matt Ryan and just be like, listen, we know you've been great.

You've been great to the franchise. We appreciate everything that you've done. But this is just our time. It's the chance to move on. We'll try to do right by you in the same way that the Lions did with Matthew Stafford. It just feels like it's all coming together in a way that will never happen again when you consider the quarterbacks available where they're picking and how smooth this transition might be. So I just think the quarterback makes sense if they like the guys.

If they don't, then you pick the best player in the draft, which he'll be available at four probably. That's not Trevor Lawrence. And you go from there. I'm so curious what like Terry Fontno's quarterback evaluation style and what his quarterback kind of philosophy is coming from New Orleans. Or his team building philosophy. We know so little about him. And that's why I think this pick is so intriguing because I think we're going to learn a ton about the direction the franchise wants to take over the next five years. Yeah, they're now the team that I think in the top 10 is the most interesting.

You know, I think the dolphins, the dolphins were that team a week ago. you know, the dolphins have moved all over the place already. But now it's really the Falcons just because they have so much flexibility there. And I think all of those options that we laid out, those three paths, like you can make a really strong case for each of those. And I'm going to be really curious, too, like what Falcons fans, how Falcons fans feel about all of these different options. And Tori McElaney, our Falcons beat writer has been writing about all of these options. I think she's kind of on the team tradeback. Like I think that's, you know, where she kind of sees the team going and their most likely option and maybe the best, the best path there.

But, God, I don't know. I mean, I just have seen too many teams pass up the opportunity for a franchise quarterback because they think they're said or they don't need to rock the boat in the first year and ultimately come to regret it. If you drop Kyle, if Kyle Pitts ends up becoming who we think he can be, which it seems like a rare, rare talent. and I think with positional scarcity at tight end and everything else, I wouldn't have any sort of problem with the team drafting him fourth overall. If you dropped Justin Fields onto, or excuse me, if you dropped Kyle Pitts onto this offense and the offensive line, the young guys on it,

Matt Hennessy was a pick last year that was supposed to take over for Alex Mack. We don't know anything about him necessarily. You know, the young right side of their offensive line, I think is still somewhat of a question mark. I would necessarily pencil it in even with the draft pedigree. Mike Davis is there now who played very well last year, I think was kind of a shrewd signing and free agent. I don't think it's far-fetched to say that this group, if it breaks the right away with Arthur Smith,

could be one of the five best offenses in the league next year. And if that's the case, and this team goes 10 and 6, that's okay, right? Like, that's a decent outcome. And if you keep Matt Ryan and you try to build on that, I can understand wanting to go that route. But I think it's also about thinking not just about next year. It's about the next 10 years of your franchise and what this draft, the potential this draft has to set you up for that.

Okay. So are they going 10 and 7 or 11 and 6? God damn it. I'm going to do it so many times. Well, it's going to be fun when we say that the San Diego Chargers. The San Diego Chargers are going 10 and 6 and we'll just be wrong all the way around. God, I cannot wait to just do it once a week, once a show. It's going to be so hard.

It's never going to get out of my mind. The Chargers thing I do all the time, all the time, because I just call them San Diego. That's just what I do in. conversation and I still haven't gotten over it. In my mind, I know they don't play in San Diego anymore. And it's weird because I don't have a hang up with the other ones. Like, I don't have I will say Oakland. The Raiders I've gotten over for some reason, but with the Chargers, I just can't do it. I don't know what it is or why that's the case. But here we are. So the 10 and 6 Atlanta Falcons next year. All right. Let's move on to another team in the NFC South, one that I think of

everyone in this conversation is the biggest loser with this entire thing. I think the Niners moving up to three puts the Panthers in a worse spot than they were a week ago. I'm not sure anyone else has been affected in a more negative way than they have. So I think the question associated with them is, will there be a quarterback left for them to take it eight if they're dead set on taking one? I mean, I think there could be, but it's going to depend on a lot of things that they do not control. So if they absolutely want a quarterback, they're going to have to look at moving up and getting

ahead of, you know, is that moving up one spot? Just to just make sure that the lions aren't going to take a quarterback there. Is it getting high enough that you don't think the Broncos are going to jump ahead of you? I mean, it could fall. But there are so few places to move up to now. I don't think the Falcons would trade with them in the division. And now it seems like the Bengals have never made a trade down in the history of their time as drafters with this regime. So I don't think that's going to happen.

Miami just traded back into that spot. So Detroit, possibly, but then you're not really jumping ahead of anyone. So it just seems like, and that's the problem is with the dolphins now off the table, now there's one less quarterback available and one less trade-up spot available. The options are slowly starting to disappear for a team like the Panthers. And I think that could change a lot of the ways they approach this off-season. Well, and this is not related to the draft necessarily, but they always seem to me like the team that was setting themselves up most to be in the Deshaun Watson.

sweepstakes, which now also has to be off the table right now. So if they were setting up this offseason to be the time that they acquired a quarterback by a massive, you know, historic type of trade or through the first run of the draft where there were potentially, you know, four guys that should go in the top 10, potentially five. But then being at eight, you could still miss out on one. So, yeah, I mean, they absolutely could, like you said, be the big losers here. I mean, I think there are a lot of paths where you could have Mack Jones there at eight.

But depending what the Niners do, it's going to depend on what the Falcons do. It's going to depend on what the Broncos do. If there's a mystery team that I think we're going to talk a little bit more about later that could try to make a major move. But, yeah, I mean, it's not great now if you're, you know, if you're the Panthers. If, you know, the big winners coming out of last week was the Cincinnati Bengals at five, who now have everything, every single option available to them, best defensive player in the draft, best offensive tackle in the draft, best offensive skill position player.

The Panthers have kind of none of those options and they're still in the top 10, which, you know, kind of sucks if you're Matt Rule, I guess, or Scott Fitterer in your first draft as a general manager. The question is about do they think they need a change at quarterback or did they think that Watson or one of the big, big guys in this draft represented enough of an upgrade over Bridgewater that they wanted to make a move like that. Because based on what Joe Person from the Athletic has written, it doesn't seem like they're interested in Mac Jones. They haven't been to his pro day.

I mean, they haven't shown a ton of interest in that. So it's not, it might not be quarterback or bust for them. It might have been super talented physical court, super physically talented quarterback or bust. So that's going to be the question. If they're just sitting there with Mac Jones, do they want that or do they think we've invested $33 million dollars guaranteed in Teddy Bridgewater, we're just going to ride that out, stay the course, we'll figure this out next year.

And I think that's going to be a big question. And you trade with the Patriots or something who want to come up and get Mac Jones. So there we go. So I guess that's the next. So we'll talk about the Broncos in a second, but transitioning to that, who do you think the mystery team might be

that could trade back into the top 10? Because I think, while it might not be who the Panthers to move up from eight to seven, I think that number seven pick could ever. absolutely be attractive to several different teams. Patriots, the Broncos, to potentially trade at front of the Panthers because they don't want them to take the quarterback that might be there, or a team like Washington. Because all of them are in a similar scenario. None of them have made the sort of commitments recently to their quarterbacks that the Panthers did with Teddy Bridgewater.

Cam Newton's on a short-term deal. Right, Fitzpatrick's on a one-year $10 million deal. And Drew Locke, we know all about that. So it does seem like all of those guys might be willing to make a big move to come get their guy if the right guy is there. The Patriots, Washington, and Denver. So that's the question now, is where they would do that. The Lions have been open about the fact that they like these quarterbacks. I'm sure that's not an accident. The question is, do they like these quarterbacks enough to draft one at seven after trading for Jared Gough?

Or are they trying to convince another team to come up into that number seven pick and get ahead of the Broncos and the Panthers, both of whom might want a quarterback. I think that after that number three pick was going to be the next logical trade spot, and obviously the Eagles traded out, but now it's the one that's left in the top 10. And is one of these teams like New England eyeing that spot and saying, we need our guy, we think that we can get it right now. And the lions are so interesting because it's a completely new regime.

I think they're trying to. Yeah. So we don't know anything about these guys. I mean, we don't know a ton about who Brad Holmes is. does he have a lot of like the Rams DNA and want to trade all over the place? You know, maybe that's who Brad Holmes is as GM. We just don't really know yet. And we also don't know what sort of quarterbacks they like.

How much did he learn from being around Jared Gough for a couple of years and that trade? I just think there are going to be a really interesting situation here. It's wild that they couldn't get a trade partner last year when they were at three. And now they're kind of really in a catbird seat here at seven this year, just when the draft is completely different. in the landscape is so completely different. So they're going to be really interesting to me. I think a couple other teams, the ones that you mentioned make a ton of sense. The Patriots, they just don't have an answer yet.

Robert Kraft spoke with reporters on Wednesday, and he said they have to figure out the quarterback position one way or another. That doesn't necessarily mean they're going to draft somebody super high. He did say multiple times during that press conference that, you know, how much COVID affected Cam Newton. and how Cam catching COVID really, like, derailed their season. And I think that's partially true. I think it's also a lot to put on one guy.

Although, you know, if he was never back to 100%, it really revealed, and I don't think he was ever going to be 100%, right, but revealed all the other flaws that were on their roster. So they've addressed a lot of those other flaws in theory, you know, through this free agency spreading spree. So do they think they, you know, a healthy Cam Newton plus better weapons that may be, they don't have to drop a guy high. Also said, you know, Jared Stiddam still hasn't had a real shot, which I feel like

we've been on that ride before and I'm not really excited to buy another ticket. But I think they're going to be interesting, they're going to be an interesting spot. Is there any chance that they could still trade for Jimmy Garoppolo? It doesn't sound like that's on the table based on everything that we've read. And I think that Jeff Howe was talked about. It seems like that shit might have sailed partially because of money, you know, the amount of money that they've spent even if you were to negotiate garoppolo's deal down which we can get to in a second for where he might make sense if you're going to try to extend him try to get that number

to 10 million this year and 10 million next year whatever i'm just not sure that's something that they're going to want to do after the spending spree that they just went on i think it would probably be trade up robust and let's say mac jones is sitting there with the seventh overall pick we've seen bill bellichick at that pro day obviously he has a fantastic relationship with nick sabin he's going to know Mac Jones probably better than any of the other coaches possibly could before this process get started. Do they think that coming up and getting Mac Jones and dropping him into an offense that has every other piece set?

You could argue about the value they found in free agency and whether or not those guys move the needle, all of that stuff. But this is a team that plugged most of the holes that it had last month. And they could argue that we just need the quarterback to make it all go. And maybe they think Mac Jones is that guy. So I don't know. I don't know if that's what they think, but if they do, I do think that it makes sense for them to try to make that sort of bold move. And then I would say when we're talking, you know, you want to say mystery teams.

It's teams that we just haven't typically been like talking about as being part of this quarterback carousel. And there's always going to be one team who's going to do something surprising in the quarterback market last year. It was, you know, the Packers didn't have to move up. But who picked the Packers, you know, who had the Packers taking a first-round quarterback last year? Nobody, right? But so who, so I was trying to think of like, okay, well, who still has? some quarterback questions. Steelers don't have a long-term quarterback plan. The Saints don't have a long-term quarterback plan. So those were the two teams that I kind of put on my list as like,

you'd have to figure out exactly what sort of draft capital they would have, how situation, how situated they would be to actually make a move. But just when you're looking at teams that have a need there and have like a substantial need there that may be, they could be, they could be in position to do something that would surprise a lot of people. Yeah, those are probably the other two teams that I would mention. And I think maybe the Bears, you know, obviously they don't have a long-term answer. This is a regime that I don't know what the dialogue going on with ownership is right now, if they're going to get another chance or if they're going to be allowed to even make that sort of move.

But that's one of the other teams we didn't mention that definitely is lacking a long-term quarterback plan. So I think that number seven spot is prime for that sort of. movement if the lions are willing to trade out and try to accumulate more draft picks as they start to build this thing. I mean, they have more draft picks. Obviously, they got it from the Stafford Trade. They have a haul next year. Are they going to be in a spot where they say we want as many as we can because we want to be in a position to go get our guy in 2022 or 2023 or whenever we feel like we need to do it? So how long they expect the rebuild to be and how they're willing to play this. I think it's definitely going to be something to watch as we get closer

of the draft here. All right, last question, something that I really wanted to ask you about. How desperate do we think the Broncos are to add new blood to this quarterback room? And are they definitely going to pick a guy at eight if one of those top five guys is available? Ooh, well, you're putting me on the spot there to make up, are they taking one at eight? So when I kept, when I was talking before about the Falcons and do, if you pass up the opportunity at four or when you're in the top five, it's because I keep thinking about. the Broncos in 2018. When they were picking at five, that was a really good quarterback class, they took Bradley Chubb, who is awesome and is going to be a really good player in the NFL for a really,

really long time. But they didn't take a quarterback that year, and they are still regretting it. And they're going to be regretting it every single year until they find a guy that they can count on every year. They're not having to go through this, you know, whatever this exercise is that happens in Denver every single off season since 2016. Listen, it's an exercise I know well. Right? Yeah. I mean, we had this little respite last year where the Broncos were like,

we are all in on Drew Locke. He is our guy. And so you didn't have to have this debate about if they were going to take someone. And we all see, we all saw how that turned out. So, you know, I think when you and I were starting to play on this podcast, one of the things we talked about was it was kind of like a choose your own adventure. Like a, what are all the different paths that you could take? And if you're George Payton right now, if you're John Elway, who still has influence there, even though George Payton is going to be the one making the final decision, what are your options now at quarterback? And I don't know how desperate they are. I think they're moderately desperate. You know, I think that they know that they're not set there. So I think that adds some sort of desperation. I also think there's that, you know, belief of we're in the top 10. Can we afford to pass up a guy yet again and, you know, kind of get caught in the.

the situation that they were at they were at a couple years ago. So, you know, I think they have a number of options there. One of which is stick with Drew Locke. And that's probably the least attractive option. You know, if if Drew Locke ends up being your starter without a quarterback competition come, you know, September 10th, that's probably not an ideal way for this season to play out. I mean, that's what they did last year and it didn't work. He didn't develop enough from year one to year two the way that they were kind of needing him to do. From everything I've heard, he's been in Denver almost this entire offseason already. We're here in April. We'll see if there's any actual on-field work to come. He's been in the building a lot. He's been, you know, working out.

He's been in communication pretty regularly with George Payton and the coaching staff. He's planning to get the guys together. So, you know, he's doing the stuff that he needs to do to be the starting quarterback here. But he's not immune to, like, what's going on. around the conversation. It's the only thing that's on sports talk radio. It's the, you know, basically the lead story and all of the new, you know, the television news sports cast every night. I guess, I'm guessing. I'm guessing he's not watching the evening news, but if he were, he would see it on channel four and channel seven and channel nine. The Rockies are going to be out of it in a couple hours. So this is going to be all Broncos all of the time. So, you know, so we look at

what are the options? Trading up, right? We already kind of talked about that. You have to get ahead of the Panthers. So do you try to get up to four? Do you try to make that major, major move to get all the way up to the four, see if the Falcons are willing to get out? Because then you're clear of everybody else. Is going to seven going to do it? Is that enough of a move? You know, just getting ahead of Carolina. Does that take some of the other teams out of it? I'm not sure exact. So do you trade up? That's one of your options. Do you stay put and then trade for Sam Darnold. I think that's the one kind of piece that they could also do during draft weekend is

wait and see is Sam Darnold's price dropping. Could you get him for, you know, a third, a third and a seventh, a third and a random player? That's kind of the one move that I'm still watching to see if that's, if that might be the way that John O.A. and George Payton would go. I think that makes total sense. it is a low-risk way to add competition to the room. It's so easy to just say, all right, I mean, it's the scene with the pool cue from the dark night. Snap it in half.

It's like, all right, one guy leaves. That's how we're going to do this. The best guy at the end of the training camp is the quarterback. If you can trade a third-round pick for a guy that John L.A. unabashedly loved in the pre-draft process, who is set to make $4.7 million this year in base salary. You don't need to pick up the option. If you're trading a third-round pick for him, you figure it out later. you franchise him next year, whatever.

I think that that absolutely would make sense. And that means they don't need to get the guy in the top 10. And I think that's one of the biggest things to consider is that it doesn't have to be quarterback or bus for them in the first round. That Darnold option is available to them. And I do think right now he is the last logical landing spot for them. And they have until May 3rd for the decision on Sam Darnold's fifth year option. So that's either the Jets have till May 3rd to make that decision.

decision if Sam Darnett is still in that roster or if he's traded to another team, the team that traded for him would have till May 3rd. So let's say he was traded on April 28th or 29th during the draft. They would have to make that decision very, very quickly. I've got to assume they would deny that. Right. You would think so, right? I mean, because it's like $18, almost $19 million for 2022, which, I mean, that's not cost prohibitive, especially if the cap goes up to $200 million or above. was before it had become guaranteed. It's a different conversation.

But now that it is, I think you put yourself in a tough spot if he doesn't end up becoming the guy. Yeah. So I think that's the move that still is most intriguing to me. And I'm really, you know, what would a Drew Luck, Sam Darnold's open quarterback competition look like? You know, I know the Sam Darnold age thing gets thrown out there a lot, usually in comparison with Joe Burrow. He's 17 years old.

Sam Darnold is like seven months younger than Drew Locke is. So a lot of interesting possibilities there. And it's keeping everything interesting here in Denver. I just know that the Broncos know they're not done. They're not set. And they're not going to be going into whenever this off season begins with the quarterback room as it is established now. And if that ends up happening, something went terribly wrong.

That's the difference between them and some of the other teams, right? They haven't made a move this offseason. Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Patriots three signed Cam Newton. The Bears signed Andy Dalton. The Broncos have done nothing. Their move is still yet to come no matter what that move ends up looking like. And taking it full circle here, the guys available at 8 and 9 for Carolina and Denver,

that is going to depend on what the Niners end up doing at number three. I don't want to say the quarterbacks are ranked a certain way. We don't know how the teams have the quarterbacks ranked. But if there is a world where one of those teams, the Panthers of the Broncos, loves Trey Lans to Justin Fields but doesn't like Mac Jones, Scott Fitter and George Payton could be doing fucking backflips if the Niners end up picking Mac Jones. And I think that's just there's so many things to consider here. How the quarterbacks are stacked and how teams have them stacked and how they end up shaking out

what that does to the rest of the top 10. I think that's why this is so interesting. And I just want to say, thank you to John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan. for injecting this conversation into the football atmosphere at this point in the calendar. We don't usually have this. I'm on April 1st. We're looking at the draft order for the millionth time. And now it's just a whole new life cycle for stuff to talk about.

Yeah, we'd be talking about the Niners as like, we'd be talking about the Niners as like, are they going to make a move? Exactly. But now they have made the move, which opens up a whole new level of conversation. I would say the one other thing when we're talking about the Broncos and like all of their different options is that George Payton makes them, even more of a wild card. I think we have enough. The sample size is very large to know what John Elway is generally looking for in a quarterback size, you know, the height, the physical traits. You know, we've seen the ones that he's missed on and then the guys that he's passed on maybe

because of the previous misses. We kind of know what John Elway is thinking when it comes to quarterbacks. I don't know what George Payton is necessarily thinking about when he's evaluating quarterbacks and what he's looking for out of this draft class, which makes it that much more intriguing because you know maybe some guys that we would have written off because they weren't an L.A. style quarterback. Maybe they're now in the conversation because they could be a George Peyton style quarterback. And we just we just don't know enough about that yet. And we're going to learn a lot. I think by what 10 o'clock on April 28th. Is that the first round of the draft? It's this month. Probably know. I know. We don't know. We don't know enough about most of this stuff.

and that's why it's fun to just speculate wildly, which is what we're going to spend the next month doing. Lindsay, thank you very much. Always get a chat with you. We'll talk to you next week. Sounds good. See you, Robert. All right, I'm very excited now to welcome the PFF college analyst,

but this is all pro football, and he has written some of my favorite stuff about scheme in the NFL over the last year. Seth Galena. Seth, how you doing, buddy? I'm fantastic, dude. I'm just living my life to the fullest. right now. In snowy, it's April 1st and it's snowed today. You know what I realized I've been doing

a lot is talking a lot about the weather, whatever podcast I go on or whoever comes on my podcast. So interesting. You're killing it. It's just, it's the most interesting thing that one can talk about, I think. Don't you live in Montreal? I live in the Great White North, yes. I mean, it's a fantastic city. I've heard so much about that I've never been there before. But at this point, the weather is probably the only interesting thing. You can't go out. You can't do anything. Yeah, it's really not supposed to snow in April. I'll tell you that much. Well, I live in Chicago, so I completely understand that.

So what I wanted to do with you is essentially take a conversation that you and I have on Twitter DM once every week or so and expanded to the podcast format. And it's talking about some of the schematic trends that have emerged in the league over the last year or so. And you've done such a good job of writing about them. You were one of the first people to point out some of the things that Brandon Staley was doing with the two high looks at Rams were using. You wrote a great piece, I think, last week about the way the modern linebacker has changed and the types of players we want to look for and how they're being utilized. And I thought that this might seem like a weird time to have that conversation. It's April.

The draft is right around the corner. But I don't think it is at all because I feel like we can take this from being theoretical and actually talk about its practical applications because we can use the draft as a way to think about these changes and see the team and trend-specific stuff and take that lens to give us perspective about the plans and the types of players that the league might be looking for. Do you want me to just read our Twitter DMs?

Like, we can do that too. That might be a very concise way of getting our points across here. I'm sure there's some stuff in there that probably isn't right for the podcast. But we're going to start with that rise of two high defenses that you've written so much about. You wrote a piece about it this spring, but again, you've been talking about it all the way back to the fall.

And I think on a general level, just to kind of lay out what it is for people. 2020 is the first time the defenses have lined up with the middle of the field closed. So just close your eyes and you can see that. It means that there's one safety in the middle of the field a la Earl Thomas in Seattle. Last year was the first time the teams have done that on less than half of their snaps on first and second down. 48.6% of the time. It was down from 57.6 in 2019. team. And that does signal a shift. And I think that that shift will be even more pronounced this

year because the teams that did it a lot, we've talked about them before. The Rams, obviously, they did it over 80% of the time. The other team that did it over 80% of the time was the Broncos. The success of those defenses alone would probably indicate that more teams were going to try that stuff this year. But then you think about the pollination from those staffs. Brandon Staley goes to the Chargers. They'll be running similar stuff. You assume the Rams will still be doing a decent amount of it, even though Rahim Morris didn't in Atlanta. So that's kind of an interesting question.

Vic Fangio is still in Denver. You have Sean Desai, who was on the staff with Vicfangio in Chicago, now taking back over that defense with the Bears. And there are also some quieter ones. Aubrey Pleasant, who is the secondary coach with the Rams, is now the passing game coordinator with the Lions. And I think one that's probably a little sneakier is Carl Scott, the old defensive backs coach from Alabama going to Minnesota.

And the Alabama has notoriously run a ton of too high stuff under Nick Saban. So now we have, we're going from two teams that could major in that stuff to at least four, maybe five or six. So it really does feel like a sea change might be upon us and this might be happening even faster than we could have predicted. And it's funny because this is how the scheme in football has. always evolved and spread out throughout the league is just like one team does it. It's super successful. So the first thing is that the coaches who were part of this scheme get poached, right? So we saw that. I mean, for me and for a lot of people listening, you'll remember, you know, you talked about Earl Thomas in the middle of the field. You talk about the Seahawks, Legion of Boom

era defense under Pete Carroll. You know, all his defensive coaches became head coaches. So what are they doing? bringing that scheme with them. So there's that aspect. And then there's just like, hey, teams want to copy good defenses, right? Like, that's all we do in the offseason as coaches is we look at who did what well, whether it's offense, defense, special teams, passing game running, whatever. And then we go and try and incorporate that stuff into our system. So the Rams had the, you know, the best EPA per play on defense list past year.

so teams are watching them. And they were so unique too that teams are certainly going to watch them and try and steal a lot of those ideas. So like you said, we have like, you know, three, four, five teams that we're pretty sure might be into this stuff. And then just you're going to add 10 more

who maybe aren't like basing completely into this new world of defense, but have taken enough that, you know, the league-wide trend might just, it might go, into a steep, steep rise, you know, to this new type of defense. It's so funny. I mean, Mike Zimmer did a press conference this week, just talking to media about their offseason.

And he said, you know, the amount of change has happened with offenses in the last four or five years, we felt like we needed to change. And I think that hiring a guy like Carl Scott is a direct symbol of that. And it's really interesting because we were having this conversation, I were talking about it when we were discussing the types of defensive coordinators that get hired and where we look for those guys. And it's usually in pretty boring places. And I think for a lot of reasons, that's one of the ways defenses were behind offenses in the league over the last five years.

And if you talked to even defensive players, I think they would admit that. And now it seems like defenses are doing what they can to catch back up and inject their approaches with new ideas and everything else. And it really does seem like there has been a conscious choice to try to do that fresh in things up this offseason with some of the movement we've seen in the coaching world. I think there was this idea at one point or another that on offense you hired the young, innovative coach, but on defense you stuck with kind of the older, the guy who's been around. I'm not saying older in a negative way,

but just the guy who's kind of been around who's seen everything. Because, you know, on defense, you're so reactionary. You know, that's a whole, that's what defense is. It's a reactionary, you know, part of the game. So you want a guy who's seen everything, who's already solved this problem and solved this problem. So you end up with an older dude to come in and run your defense.

And then maybe this is a trend going the other way. Because maybe the league needs these type of new ideas, this type of stuff that Brandon Staley brought in. I was shocked. I mean, I think you were as well. When I first watched them, maybe the first three games of their season last year, I remember the Cowboys game where they did a really good job on obviously a very good Cowboys offense

with Dak Prescott in there and I was like, what am I watching here? Like this is not what I'm used to. It's like a lot of this stuff that you see just maybe on third downs was happening on first and second down. And the fronts were a little different like in the secondary

and then the fronts were a little different on first and second down too. And who was trying to stop the run? Who wasn't trying to stop the run was so different. and honestly kind of refreshing for an NFL league that going back to, I've written a bunch about this and every article almost starts with, hey, where are we now?

We're in this kind of Seattle Seahawks, Pete Carroll, Legion of Boom type of defensive, you know, general defensive scheme, which is like you said, middle of the field closed, Earl Thomas in the middle, the two corners being on islands to a certain degree, and a big hitting, you know, safety who nestles, himself in the box. And that's where we are. And we still are. And I don't think we're going to be there. We're not getting out of that in 2021 just yet. We will, but probably not 2021. So I think, like,

we always have to start there. And then when this guy comes in, who's running a lot of stuff we saw, we've seen in college for a lot of time. And I've written articles before about some of the stuff that we've seen in college on defense. So we're talking about specifically the tight front, which we can get into, and three high safety defense. And basically those two articles that I've written in the past, I think, two years, my end for all, my conclusion for both of them is, yeah, this is great in college. We're not going to see in the NFL.

Sorry, bye. And then it's like, oh, well, here it is. Like we just sighed. We haven't seen, you know, even three high safety stuff. because Carolina ran a small percentage of it, like less than 5% of their defense, was three high safeties. But, you know, you bring in a college DC,

and that's what happens. So you're bringing in a college DC like Brandon Staley. I'm talking about Phil Snow and Carolina. You bring in a college DC like Brandon Staley, and all of a sudden here comes a tight friend. And the crazy thing is, man, the thing that I think is always wild when I watch the NFL, and we're going to see it this year,

and this is what we're talking about, is it's almost like they get on all the DCs in the league, get on a conference call in May or something, and they're like, hey, what are we doing this here? Oh, we're doing, oh, we're doing that now. Okay, cool. I'm into it. Like that, that feels like, that happens. It's not conference calls, but you talk to coaches. And they're like, oh, yeah, I talked about, you know, so and so called me because he was really interested in this basic guide, in this thing that is the foundation of our offense. There is much more conversation among the play callers of individual teams discussing certain aspects of what they do with each other,

then people think there is. That's a real thing. They're just offensive coordinators, and I'm sure it happens on defense too, just calling and be like, how did you do this and why did you want to do it? It seems like it'd be this proprietary information that they wouldn't want to share with each other, but that's not really how it is. A lot of these guys like football and like talking about it. So these ideas do get transferred from one team to another.

The question often is if you don't major in it, can you run it because if you don't major in it, you don't know where the faults are? And that's why it's difficult to do. And that's why the Vikings bring in someone like Carl Scott who can not only say, all right, we're going to run this type of cover seven. We run it Alabama. He's like, all right, I know how to do it. I know how to teach it. I can tell you where the vulnerabilities and everything are. And I think that's the question.

Are you going to actually commit to it with someone in the building who can articulate it in the right way and understand every single, in and out of it or are you going to try to sprinkle it in? And I think those are the two types of innovation we see in different places. And I think with specifically what we're talking about, which is starting in the back end with how many deep safeties you have, it's hard. It's probably hard for a lot of defensive coordinators who are good defensive coordinators in this league to tell themselves, hey, we're going to live in a world where We don't have as many people in the box as we have had for the past 15, 20, 25 years, whatever it is.

That must be difficult for them to say, oh, and you want me to stop the run? Because, you know, we can talk about the run game and how important the run game is and all that stuff. But at the end of the statement, you can't allow yards. The whole point is like we can't have yards happen to us. And coaches don't specifically don't like it when those yards happen on the ground. It's a demoralizing thing. It's an annoying. It's annoying to them. That's exactly right. It's almost like a pride thing. And that's why even if it's like a team like Alabama, if you go watch the cover seven clinic that Carl Scott did that's online, it's fascinating. If you're a football fan, I would highly recommend you do it. Everyone is watching. I would want to run through a brick wall when I listen to Carl Scott talk about football. It's awesome. But where they start, even in this. It's a 50 minute clinic about all of the ins and outs of how cover seven works. Where they start, still first, is how you stop the run and how you set the fronts because

it always has to start that way. And that's why that type of thinking will always inform the structure of defenses. So very quickly, before we get into the specific traits and qualities that you might be looking for in these positions associated with these ideas, let's talk about the benefits of them. Some of them are obvious on their face. If you have more guys deep, you are attributing more resources to the secondary and to the pass. But there's also certain aspects to really make sure we're laying out here.

Just because you're starting in two deep safeties doesn't mean you're playing two deep coverages. That's important to understand. If you look at what the Rams did last year, even though they started with two guys deep on more than 80% of their plays, they ran a ton of cover three. But when you're rotating to it, it creates two different things. One, it's a disguise. It makes it harder for teams to understand. understand what you're doing. The quarterback has to think pre-snap. Think back to the

interceptions that Tom Brady threw against them when he thought it was going to be a quarter's look and it spun to cover three and he's throwing it into his safety's chest. That's possible because you're rotating late even though you're playing a single high coverage. The other part of it is it creates layers to your defense. By being able to layer it and the numbers advantage you create, even if you're spinning to cover three, it looks different than if you're just lining up and cover three. So while the numbers on their face make sense as to why it would be better to stop the pass with more guys deep,

it's also the complications and the complexities that are created by layering your defense that way. Yeah, and we're not going to be living in a world where the end product, the end coverage is a too high coverage, 80% of the time, 75% of the time, maybe even that 60% of the time. NFL still wants to live in a one high,

post-snap world because I think that they can get that extra player in the box to stop the run. You can create confusion. And I think at the end of the day, like, hey, sometimes you got to play man coverage. It is what it is. It's the NFL. You got athletes. You got to play man. But it's easier to play man if the other team doesn't know you're going to play man.

If you're not lined up that way, and that's part of the deception that this creates. now. But you know, it's funny because you look at going back to the Seahawks, you look at that, it's like, well, if you have the players, it don't matter what, it don't matter if they know what you're doing or not, you're going to stop them because you have the best, you know, the best secondary in the last 20 years or whatever.

But yeah, we're going away from that because now teams can have to just seen it so much. That's how this whole thing works. Like, you just can't keep playing the same thing because teams have spent all this time answering those questions. It's the why the Shanahan offense has become so popular is because all of those deep crossing routes are designed to exploit the Seahawks defense. All of this stuff is cyclical. It all plays off of each other in a fascinating way.

All right, we can talk about this forever. Let's get into how it's going to affect certain positions and how teams might be looking at certain positions. So let's start with safety because I think that is the logical starting point with this. because among all of the other positions on defense, I think that what we value about safeties in a too high world is their biggest difference from what we valued in a single high world. And you and I have talked about this,

and I've seen you talk about this. How do you think the value of safeties changes in an NFL where we're moving to a too high safety world? Well, I think it's very interesting because I do think that what Staley was doing with his safeties, is even more unique than other guys who are living in two high worlds, even his former boss, Vic Fangio,

and even like a Mike Zimmer who's been into this stuff for a while. So there's that aspect. But I think just in general, you're looking for guys who can probably do a little bit of everything. So you get into, we keep going back to the Seahawks here,

but Earl Thomas is your classic, middle of the field. Now, he did a lot of stuff. I think we have to remember that. They still did a lot of stuff And they did a lot of had a lot of different roles But I think that You know, when we think of Earl Tom

Was thinking that middle, that center field, right? Guy in the middle of the field Wherever the ball is thrown deep, I'm going to go get it And then Camp Chancellor was that guy who is lower Playing in underneath zones Maybe sometimes a free player And he is going to go hit anything that moves So, you know, there were like very specific

There's a contrast between free and strong safeties. They were two different positions. So now in a too high world, you're mirrored to a certain degree. Especially if there's two receivers to each side, you know, you can be running the same coverage to each side. If it's three receivers and one receiver, a little bit different. But at the same time, you're not responsible for getting down low and making hits in the run. You're not responsible for being a middle of the field. player who has to chase from the middle of the field a go route down the sideline like

old thomas did you're splitting the field in half so that changes what you want in a safety and then you know with with brandon staley like i said i i can't stop thinking about this but you know in the playoff game against green bay he was having john john johnson and we're going to every time we're going to go through a position i'm going to tell you about a rams player who i love to watch this but that's the way to do this that's the way to do this that's the way to do this and I think that's that's informative. John Johnson was one of my favorite players to watch and specifically because of this, he was playing that weak safety role.

So he's half field, high on the short side of the field, the one receiver side of the field. But what the Rams were trying to do was not allow the Packers to throw screens to Devonta Adams. And so they would push their whole. whole kind of second level of the defense of linebackers out to wherever DeMata Adams was if he was aligned to the trips if he was part of the three receiver side and if you're going to push your whole linebacker crew to that side yeah you're telling Aaron Rogers hey we have the number of series so don't throw a bubble screen

and instead you know hand the ball off go ahead but you're going to push all your linebackers that you need someone like someone's got to go and come and be a linebacker at some point and that was John Johnson's role you know for a big a lot of plays in that game, that playoff game. It didn't work. They lost the game, but of course, a lot of teams would have lost to the Packers' offense last season. And he's coming down, not just like, oh, well, if the ball, you know, bounces to the

sideline, he'll go clean it up. No, he's coming down being an A-gap run fitter from the weak safety position. So that, like, that's wild stuff. I don't know if so many other teams are going to be doing that next year. but at least we can see that he you know staley was able to uh in a sense like unshackle his mind and be like hey you know what i want to take this away i want to take away the bubble screens and how do i do that how do i do that well i you know i push everyone out to the field side and then i i use my really good player my really good safety as a as a linebacker from depth like

that's wild man so here's the thing to take from that I think this is how we're getting here. I think the contrast between free and strong safeties in this type of defense doesn't exist. It's nomenclature you can just throw out the window. If you're a strong safety now, and the defense coach told me this recently, if you're a strong safety now in that defense,

you're a linebacker. That's what you are. And now it becomes like you're talking about with John Johnson. How many different things can you do? If you're a safety for me on some packages, can you be my money linebacker and dime? How many different things can you do?

We have this idea that's outdated thinking kind of, I think, driven by that Seattle model of Safety's do one thing well. Now, just do everything kind of well. And that's how you gain value. And I think that it really changes the types of players that you're chasing, right? Because John Johnson, somebody just made $11 million a year in free agency. John Johnson is a third round pick that ran a 4-6 at 6 foot 208 pounds. So what makes John Johnson good?

It's versatility and it's everything upstairs. And that's what you're going to see. That's what you're going to see teams start chasing. You're going to see team. And that's why it's going to be so fascinating for how teams find value. Because I don't think that safeties are necessarily less valuable in this type of defense. I think the types of athletes you can find to play safety in this defense can be found later in the draft. And so it creates a question about what value means and all of these.

different ways. I think that's why this is fascinating. You can find a Jordan Fuller in the six round, a guy that ran a four, six, seven at the combine, and say, I know how you see the game, and that's why I can plug you into this defense and have you play well. The same coach that told me about the strong safety thing was telling me about the process they use to essentially evaluate safeties coming into the draft and what they're asking of them in meetings and all this other stuff. and they'll pause the tape a second after the play starts and just ask them to identify route distribution. That becomes the number one thing.

Can you play up here? Can you understand what we're teaching you and the ways that this needs to change because you need to look at the routes, you need to look at the quarterback? I think the intelligent players will become more important than they have been. The traits guys, the guys that can run,

the guys that you would typically draft in the top 10 because the way they move, they are not as important if you're playing this type of defense. the only thing I'll say is like I said before I do think at some point you got to line up to play man and if you're going to play man you got you need athletes that's fair and I don't think you're saying like don't draft athletes you're certainly not saying don't draft athletes but at the same time we're not looking we can now again we're splitting the you know we're just talking with safety is we're splitting the role right so now and we're splitting the field in half. I mean, that's what we're doing here. So now we don't need a guy who can play sidelines to sideline like these classic free safeties that we've seen the last 10 years. And now we can find a guy who's going to nail down on routes who's going to, who can cover four

cornerbacks, you know what I mean? Because now he's in the half field and stuff like that. So yeah, I agree. I think it's changing a bit. Obviously, you want athletes are going to be picked high in the draft because it helps if you have them. But can you find guys later? I think that's the argument. And it's going to be really interesting to watch. Of course, if you can have a guy that's smart and runs a 4-440, I'd rather have that guy. But I think it's the question is, do you need that guy or can you spend your high-end capital elsewhere? And I think the Rams have been a perfect example of how to do that.

I also think that somebody to consider with safety. You talked about the 3D safety looks that we're going to see more often. You talked about Johnson essentially playing a linebacker role. You got to have a bunch of them. that depth at that spot and the number of different safeties we're going to see teams play over the course of the year is so, so important. And I think we know that inherently about corners. And that's why you just see teams drafting all of these corners in the middle round a lot of the time.

But I think with safety, that's also becoming a thing where teams are really going to need to be conscious about how they build that room overall. The thing I will say that could be changing is we might not see as many safeties having to play in man coverage when they do rotate. down because we're not sure what they are. So yeah, we want to be versatile for sure. But I think it's very possible that we see more rotate. We see players who are already at the second level of defense end up covering people man to man.

And then the guys from the third level, the safeties that we're talking about, they're rotating down and becoming more, you know, robber players, more. You talk about rotating it to cover three, so your hook zone is from deep and stuff like that. So I think I don't know if safeties are going to be covering man to man as much. Maybe there's a little bit of galaxy brain here that I'm thinking about here. But it's like, you know, I could see these two guys being your conductors of the defense from the rear

and not having to have to latch on to guys in a man-to-man type of world. You know, you distribute who's man-to-man pre-snap, and then these guys can play around in the back end. and try and figure out basically in a certain degree you're trying to forget who you're doubling. You know, when we play to talk about a too high world, you just talk about the cover seven world. The cover seven rules like,

who the hell are we doubling right now? It's very malleable. It's a flexible coverage that can accomplish a lot of different things depending on how you unleash it. So talking about corners, how do you think that the way teams running this type of defense or with these sort of principles, how did the way they value and approach corners might change?

Yeah, so I think the first thing to remember is we did live in a too high world before. I was a little boy, so I don't remember it that well. But we did live in the through the Tampa II world of the early 2000s, I guess, up until, I mean, dude, you know, Lovie Smith at Illinois was running his old defense last year. You know, for the past four years that he were five years that he was at Illinois. So like it still exists. We just don't see it often at all. I think only 13% of the league,

30% of the defensive stamps were in Tampa 2 last year or covered 2 last year. So you just don't see it a lot. You can live in too high. You're just not paying Tampa 2 like you were 15 years ago. And so what I'm saying is like that was a very specific cornerback that you wanted. And I always go back to, yeah, Rondea Barber. And I always go back to the, to the, you know, I'm a Saints fan.

So I very distinctly remember them signing Jason David. And I was very hyped when they signed Jason David from the Colts. And the Colts were running Tampa 2, right? And Jason David came over to the Saints, and the Saints were not running Tampa 2. And it was not a good fit. I just want to throw that out there because it still haunts me to this day. But that's a specific corner, right? Because you're not really carrying routes vertically in a Tampa 2 system.

You're passing them off to your safeties, right, who are really getting depth. and splitting the field in half. And now in this world of too high zone match, man match, whatever you want to call it, now you're still, if you're a corner, you're still running vertically with guys a lot. And there's a lot of coverages with the Rams, I think the Rams base coverage was, hey, the corner, you're on an island, you're by yourself. And we're going to double everybody inside, basically. So, hey, you got to run with guys.

Like you got to play corner like we know corner exists. So like I think there's a lot of, it's going to be a lot of change. But I'm really curious to see if we do move away from guys who can just press and press guys out of the game. You know, I look at a guy like Patrick Sturtain this year that's coming out. And it's like, that's what it does, man. He just presses you out of the game. And he tells the quarterback, don't even look at the receiver that I'm covering because he's not going to be available for you. And then, so I think that still is going to be important, obviously.

But I do think that- There are teams that still do that. You can still play a lot of man. And, I mean, think of a team like the Saints who plays like a ton of two-man. You can still have that really physical underneath guy that still accomplishes what we're trying to here. It's just not the types of coverages we're going to see from a team like the Rams or a team like the fan geo kind of covers Six World that those teams live in.

So you can play too high safeties and still want press traits. it just seems like there are going to be more teams not going in that direction over the next couple of years. Yeah, and you're going to be able to find players. And I think what you want is to find players who can move around and cover different positions and not just be specifically an outside cornerback or even not just specifically be a slot cornerback

and being able to move around because we saw that with the Rams again. And, you know, one of the big storylines was where is Jaylem Ramsey playing in this game on a week-to-week basis? So, like, yeah, when he was in Jacksonville, all he did was play outside. And now, Jalen Ramsey's, look, he's the top player in the league, and he can probably play a lot of positions on defense.

But, you know, just you're looking for guys. They're not going to be always at Jalen Ramsey's level, but you're looking for guys who can say, hey, I can move in now and still give you good reps from the inside. and not necessarily just saying, okay, well, when I get moved inside, I'm playing man, because I'm just lining up over

their other team's best receiver or something like that. No, we can still play, you know, like you said, the cover six quarter quarter half stuff. I can play outside leverage and we can double him with, double the slot with the safety in the corner

and the slot corner and stuff like that. So I think just like being able to do a bunch of things and it goes back to the safety stuff, You know, just being versatile and being able to do a bunch of things. So teams feel comfortable with playing all these new, quote-unquote, I mean, they've been around for a long time, but new for the NFL, especially on base downs, defenses. It's interesting because I always just kind of thought that movement skills

were attached to press traits because if you could stick with a guy in press coverage that you probably moved well. But people that know a lot more than me and that coach this stuff, they think of it two different ways. there's secondary movement skills and then there's press traits. So can you move in the 8 to 10 yard range and turn with the guy? And I think as a lot of these defenses are built, that's going to be really, really important. I think a guy like Kyle Fuller is a perfect example.

Like Kyle Fuller is not a press man coverage guy. But he's amazing and off coverage because he's really smooth and he can move in that area really well. And that's why a team like the Broncos signed him in 10 seconds because they know that he's able to do that in the same ways they like to do it on their defense. I think that's so interesting. There are teams that I've talked, people that I've talked to where they didn't like top five press coverage corners because they didn't like the way they moved eight to ten yards off the line of scrimmage.

And I've just never thought about it that way, but I think it's illuminating when you consider how those trace apply to the defenses that we're talking about. Well, this is why I'm kind of banging the table for a guy like Asante Samuel Jr. because this is a guy who has great off coverage skills, and he's going to, you know, he can definitely play in press, but he's a guy who's going to be taken probably in the first round, but maybe not even in the first round,

maybe early second round, who really, really. He's not as sexy as the Cartans or the J.C. horns or guys like that, but that's, I think, part, it gets at the heart of what we're talking about here is maybe we can get away from the sexier defensive players and still do pretty damn well with some of this stuff.

Well, I mean, we're going to get to it with linebackers, but that's like, that's what we're doing with linebackers, right? That's why I, you know what's funny. Like, talking about linebackers and like, you know, I've done a few mock drafts on pff.com and like, it's hard for me to put Micah Parsons anywhere because it's like he's obviously a super athlete and a super good linebacker. But it's like, where is the value of taking him anywhere in the first? Like, I don't know because I watched these unheralded Rams linebackers play great football. And just because they were kind of like covered up by a coverage shell, not having to run vertically, not having to do anything like that. It's like, hey, you can get away with just okay linebackers right now. Do you think that's applicable?

That's my question. So let's move to linebackers. Do you think that's something that other teams can do or do you think that that's kind of a unique circumstance where they wanted to take one of their linebackers off the field consistently? The other players were so good they can get away with that. Do you think that model of marginalizing that position and asking so little of it is something other teams could learn from or do you think it's a unique circumstance with the way their roster was set up last year? I think that it probably depends on the front you want to play. So if you, so and this is a good example of the differences between Fangio and Brandon Staley. Fangio's still a four down, someone in the, everyone's, you know, there's four down linemen in a gap and there's two linebackers. And they each have a gap as well. And wherever the gap goes, they go find it and they try and make a play.

And with Staley, you saw a three down look, whether that was the tight front that we talked to before, whether that was a bare front. And what you end up happening, what ends up happening, what ends up happening, what ends up happening is the interior gaps in this staley look get clogged and you don't need a guy who's just going to, you know, just a linebacker or run stuffer, just going to go, that's my gap. I go run into it and I hit whoever the hell comes into that gap. Like, we don't need that anymore because those gaps inside are covered. And what we want is speed guys that can just, now obviously that Michael Parsons is the speed.

guys so he fits but you want speed guys who can say hey everything's clogged in the middle I'm gonna go run to the sideline because I know that running back is going to have to balance the ball horizontally to a sideline in order for him to eventually get yards so I can just go and be speedful I don't think speedful is a word but I'm saying it we can be speedful and we can just go and run and hit and hit ball carriers because we know we're protected inside so I think it really depends on what type of front you're going to run. And the tight front does a really good job of kind of taking the five offensive linemen and using them up with three defensive linemen.

Just for people who don't know if you're picturing, we've talked about a lot in the show. The tight front is essentially putting your three defensive linemen within the tackles. So every single guy is within the inside shoulder of both tackles. Imagine it. Just think about all the traffic that that creates. So yeah, and so it creates so much traffic, the linebackers can play it a little bit slower, a little bit more reactionary and just kind of waded out. And I think a lot of people call it ball fitting.

So instead of gap fitting in a sense where, hey, my gap went this way, so I got to go, I got to go get to it. I ball fit. So like, hey, where's the ball? It's coming. I'm like tracking the running back as he's kind of moving in the hole. or trying to find a hole and then I go and I go try and hit him. So I think, and again, it goes back to like, you can do it both with a too high world. You can run a tight front.

You can run an over front. You can run an even front, whatever. But it does, I think, how good you need your linebackers to be probably depends on what front you're going to run. It also is interesting because you're talking about playing the ball and ball fitting and playing downhill to come get those things or outside to come get those things. That aligns with what you wrote about the traits you need to play past coverage in that scheme. So it's almost like it's converging in this way or as long as you and I have a guy that can move

and can cover linebackers in space and everything else. You don't need somebody you can run vertically. But if you have someone that can play a sideline and sideline and cover some ground that way, that seems to align with the type of linebackers you'd want in this sort of system. Yeah. So I think that was one of the things that I thought was really interesting. And like you have to remember, I come from the Great White North. So our field here is very, very big.

And I've coached linebackers at the college level. And like, you are telling these guys, you got to open your hips up. You got to run to 15 yards deep. Like, you've got to go. The field is so big and the receivers have a running start. So you got to go, man. And then I'm here watching, you know, whether it's like, you know, Eric Kendricks or Fred Warner, like some of the really good Mike linebackers in the league.

And even, you know, you watch like Bobby Wagner in the heyday of the Seahawks, kind of the same thing, where they're not getting so much depth on their drop. And, you know, I'm thinking about this and I'm like kind of realizing you don't have to get that much depth in a too high world, I think. And especially, especially in a college too high world, cover, cover. I'm sorry, quarter quarter half, cover six world, because you're protected to a certain degree by the safeties in a way that the Tampa two Mike linebacker was absolutely not protected. And that's why you needed a, you're almost your best player on the field had to be the Mike linebacker in those other type of two schemes.

Exactly, right, Erlacker. So how does that change the type of athlete that you want? want a guy that has to play more sideline to sideline that doesn't have to necessarily turn and run. How does that, how do those two types of athletes differ in your mind as you would lay them out? I wish I could give you a good answer. I don't think I have a good answer for the different types of athletes,

but what I will say is that, it's almost an identifier more so. It's a guy who can identify things quickly is more important if he's not having to play vertically. Yeah, just having to play vertically is just tough on a Mike linebacker. I had, uh, I had James Laurenitis on my, podcast a few months ago. It was during the college season.

He was talking about that how he was like, man, I would sit there as a Mike linebacker playing Tampa too because that's with the era that he played in. And he was like, man, I'm trying to like, he's like, I'm inching backwards. I'm inching backwards because I'm so afraid of getting burned deep vertically that, you know what I mean? Like I got to play deep. I got to kind of do disguise it a little bit and play a whole bunch of different stuff and stuff that I really don't really want to do, especially on like a first down or second down.

So I think now you obviously don't have that anymore. So now without that vertical stuff that you got to deal with, like you said, you can go sideline to sideline. Very quickly, you can jump routes better. And that's another one of the differences between like a cover two world and this quarter quarter, because quarters world is the safeties are much lower and they're ready to jump on 12-yard in breaking routes, you know, a 12-yard-in or 12-yard dig or a post or whatever. So if they're behind you not at not giving that much depth and you're a linebacker, you're thinking, whoa, I can get off of a route that runs by me really quickly.

And it means I can attack a different route. I don't have to get depth. And okay, well, I got depth so I allowed a five-yard catch because I had to get 12-yard. It's deep. And it's like, no, I can get off that route that's going 12 yards. And I can go and get firm on a route that's shallow. And we can end up matching routes a lot better that way. There's issues.

Certainly there's issues. You know, when you live in a too high match world, you know, I come from an offensive perspective. I think, hey, you want to match in a too high world. If guys run vertically, you don't have a middle of the field safety. So it ends up being covered zero. For me, that's why I look at it. because I'm an idiot offensive coach. But if you're going to match routes from a short depth,

hey, man, we're going to go over the top of you. That's why you've got to reroute guys, right? I mean, that's why the importance of rerouting is so important. Yeah. You have that slot. If the safety is sitting there on the seam, if you're a nickel that's sitting over that player doesn't reroute that guy as he's moving up the seam, that safety is fucked from all intents of purposes.

Because he's not immensely. And that means there's still a physicality to all these positions, to a nickel, to a mic, to a will. There's still a ton of physicality that comes with playing in the scheme because you let, you know, I remember reading years ago. I don't know if you remember the old, the old, I mean, he's only been out of football for like a year. But the old Mark D'Antonio scheme at Michigan State where they're playing people call press quarters. A lot of teams still play press quarters. So you have the two cornerbacks are pressed man to man. They're just, that's all they know, pressed man to man.

And the two safeties are deep, basically covering the two slotbacks at 12 yards. You know, they're just sitting there at 12 yards. And if they get a slot that runs vertically, that's their guy. And you look at how often. Just cover zero with a four-man rush. Yeah. So like you look at that and it's like, and you know, that became such a popular defense. in college football, but you look at that and you're like, hey, man, if we let our guys run at the safety,

you know, and we don't reroute, they're in such a bind, man. Like, they can't, that's, it's like, it's like being in Canada. It's like giving a guys a running start, right? So like, we can't have that happen. So, yeah, I agree. Like rerouting people, getting our hands on people is still super important because I know people want to talk about the finesse of football and how that's changing the game and stuff like that. It is for sure, but it's football, man.

You still got to be physical. So let's talk about that physicality, because the next group that I want to talk about, this is the area where I think my previously held notions and conventional wisdom about what I want from these guys. I would say it's changed the most, but it's caused me to go back to my biases the most. And that's with what teams do up front. Because if we're going to do this, if we're going to play to, high and we're going to say you know we're not going to put that next guy down to make sure we have

everyone the gap covered in the box you still need to stop the run you still need to steal those gaps back somewhere and somehow and we've talked a little bit about the ways that these the teams have done it the rams have done with some of the tight front stuff everything else and if you go look at a team like alabama who's going to do some of this stuff they stunt the front all the time pretty much every single play in some way or another and what they do is they'll teach one or two guys away from the back, typically, that he has to two gap and take up two different spots. And we saw the Rams do some of this last year, where they would, their front structures and the way that they would build them is that's how they would muddy up the run game essentially.

You're just trying to not get clean, flush shots on you as the running back is approaching the line. And to do that, you need guys who can hold up in the run game. And in a world where pass rushing has become so important, I think that kind of thinking about the defensive of linemen you want and the guys they're going to help you do the most on the back end, you might kind of, it might be kind of counterintuitive. You might need better run defenders up front in order to stop the pass and allocate your resources in the way that you want to, which is something I had never considered until at the last like calendar year.

Well, this is why, you know, like I said before, I would end all these articles with, and especially the tight front articles, I would end him with, okay, this is good in college, but it's not going to happen in the NFL. And the specific reason for that in the tight front is you only have one. Now, teams will mess around a bit, but like in the kind of quote unquote true tight front, you only have one edge rusher. And guess what the NFL loves? Edge rushers.

Got to get to the damn quarterback. So that's why, that was my thing. I was like, hey, the NFL is never going to do this because they need to get, it's a passing league and they need to get to the quarterback. And I think they're coming around to the idea that. on early downs, obviously like third down, you're going to put as many pass rush as you can on the field. But yeah, on early downs, it's like, hey, we got to clog this

so that we can, yeah, we're not going to like get to the quarterback, maybe as fast, let's say. But at least we're going to make him hold on to the football because we've allocated more resources on the back end. So we can play with more run-stopping guys. Now, the Rams are certainly an interesting example. because I don't know if you know this about them, but they have one of the best interior defensive players in the world

who's ever played the game there. You mean the history of the world? Yeah. Yeah, the history of the world. And of course, I'm talking about my favorite player on the Rams. Morgan Fox. Sebastian Joseph Day, my favorite. Yeah, so like, you know, like it certainly helped them than they had Aaron Donald.

But still, just clogging those interior gaps and just being big bodies there. and whether you do that in it you can do it in a one gap system in a type in a type three four you could even do it in a two gap system with the nose um but i think that's what worried me the most was the NFL saying hey we're not going to do this because we need two edge rushers on the field and it's like hey you know what if we can add an extra half second to the quarterbacks you know being in the pocket because we're we have so much more um players in coverage, then, hey, you know, maybe we don't need that second edge rusher sometimes. And don't get me wrong, the Rams played a tight front, but they played it sometimes with two edge rushers.

They brought in, you know, they had Leonard Floyd and whoever else is playing on the edge. So like, yeah, they were able to do it with two guys also. But I think you saw a lot. I mean, I remember the Eagles game that they played against. There was a lot of, hey, we're going to play with one edge rusher. the main thing is we're going to not give you an open B gap, the B gap between the guard and the tackle. That's where teams want to run the football.

I don't know. I had Mike Tice on my podcast. I'm not sure if you know the family at all. I'm familiar. I had Elder Tice on the podcast the other day. And I was talking about him, asking him like, hey, like, how do you run the football, blah, blah, blah. And he was like, look, we just look for the B gap.

Like where is the B gap? Where is the open B gap? We're going to find it. And we're going to run it at it till it burst. And that doesn't, so that's why the tight front comes in where you're putting two guys in each B gap and making it difficult for the offense to find the B gap. So you don't have to play with as much people in the box.

And again, you can allocate more resources in the back end and try and make plays that way. I think just a practical example of this. You look at what the Vikings did in for the free agents. where they go get a guy like Dalvin Tomlinson who's now nominally going to be their three technique. And we come from this place, speaking of Tampa, where we think of these three techniques

is these one gap penetrating, pass rushing guys. And that's what Aaron Donald is still. I mean, he can do it all. But it's in that war on sat mold. I think that's how we've thought about three techniques for a really long time in football. And Dalvin Tomlinson is not that. But he can steal gaps back as a run defender.

He's one of the best players in the league at controlling the guy in front of him, and making sure that he's clogging up space. And I think that them signing a guy like Daven Tomlinson who played at Alabama and is a type of defense alignment Alabama looks for in the same off season where they brought in a guy like Carl Scott

to help inject their defense with new ideas on the back end, all of this stuff convergence. And it's really interesting to me. Because while they're not going to be as good as a pass rushing team with those two guys in the front, they're going to be able to steal gaps back in the run game if they want to start playing like that and start doing some of the stuff that we've been talking about,

which, again, it's fascinating. It just, it all starts to beget one another. I really do want to give a shout out to Joseph, Sebastian, I was forget his name, Joseph Gordon Levitt. Joseph, Joseph Day. No, Sebastian Joseph Day, who every time you turn on that film of that Rams defense, he is doing exactly what you just said, which is like controlling a human being with his weight and his arms

and then finding where the ball is. I really want to my favorite players to watch, and I really want to give a shout out to him. It's really? Of course. Of course. He's a big fan. And that's one of the things that's important is that you have to do this through your personnel.

You have to filter all of these ideas through the players who are on your team. And the reason we're doing this right now, you can start to have one and form the other. You can draft the players that you want to run your scheme, but this is all going to look different. The same way that the Shanahan offense looks different when the Titans are running it, when the Broncos and the Packers are running it. when the Niners are running it,

all of these ideas are going to look different based on the players on the field. I don't think we're going to see as many six defensive back looks from Staley's chargers as we saw from Staley's Rams because he has a linebacker they traded up to taking the first round last year and Drew Trankle, who's a pretty good player. It's always going to be a little bit different depending on the players, but I also think that we learn a lot about the types of players

that teams wanting to run these defenses are going to look for both in this month's draft and moving forward. Buddy, I really appreciate you doing this. This was very fun and very nerdy. I hope we did not lose anybody, but I know that I thoroughly enjoyed it. I think I lost myself a few times, so never mind losing your audience.

You lost your co-host here. Don't worry about it. We did wild and rampant quarterback speculation for the first 45 minutes of this show. So there's a little bit of everybody in here, or a little bit for everybody in here. All right. Seth Galena, pro football focus.

read his work. I'm telling you guys, it's why I wanted to do this because of all of the pieces that he's written about where the league is going and some of these ideas. He does a fantastic job of just articulating it and laying it out for you. You will learn a lot if you dig into his work. It is indispensable in learning about the league right now. Thanks a lot for your time, but it's always good to chat with you. Thank you, brother. All right, guys, that's all we got today. Thank you so much to Lindsay for stopping by. Thank you very much to Seth Gleena. That was a really fun conversation. I'm glad we got to do that. We'll be back next Tuesday with my buddy Danny Kelly from the ringer. I'm very much looking forward

to that conversation. In the meantime, please enjoy your weekend. Also, please subscribe to the athletic. It's a dollar a month for the next six months. The amount of stuff we have going up is crazy. Ted wrote so many great pieces this week about all of the quarterbacks to the deep dive analyses on each guy. Please check that out. I promise you it is worth the subscription. Also, please rate and review the show on your podcast platform with choice. would mean a lot to me. So thank you very much. Really appreciate you guys listening.

We'll be back next week. Talk to you later. This was the Athletic Football Show.