The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Saints & Eagles trade picks & how schematic trends affect the 2022 NFL Draft with Nate Tice & Diante Lee

Episode Date: April 4, 2022

The Saints and Eagles shook up the 2022 NFL Draft on Monday as they swapped picks in the first round - but what is the thinking behind the move for both sides? THE ATHLETIC'S Nate Tice and Diante Lee join Robert Mays to react to the news and discuss how the offensive and defensive scheme trends we've seen in the recent past might inform several team's thinking this draft season. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Monday, April 4th. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, it's Athletic staff writer Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm feeling very official. I feel like this is a whole new age for us.

But yes, I'm very excited to be joining the athletic full-time. Still listening to the same church's song before we podcast. That hasn't changed about me, but I'm very excited. We just had an extended church's conversation. before we started recording about their career trajectory. And yours kind of mirrors theirs. Just very fast, very deserved it, though. I'm very proud of you, buddy.

And I'm so happy that you're a part of this full time now. I'm going to ruin your life with how much I'm going to bug you to do stuff for the show. So it's fantastic. People can read you now on The Athletic. You're going to be doing a ton of draft coverage for the site. Nothing is going to change with how often you're on this show. If anything, you're going to be on it more. So anybody that's worried about that, don't be.

A little bit later on today's show, Deonté Lee, who also is a newly minted athletic staff writer, is going to be joining us a little bit later. Our idea for today's show was to do this year's draft class, was to look at this year's draft class and just the NFL draft in general through the lens of some schematic trends in the NFL. So where the league is going, how does this group of players and prospects intersect with that? We were going to do the offensive side of the ball with you and then chat about the defensive side of the ball. with Deonti. He knows actual things about defense. Like we don't. So it's great to be able to pick his brain all the time now. So we're going to get to Deontay a little bit later. Unfortunately, or fortunately, however you want to look at it, we have some news to dig into right before we started recording. At least it was before we started recording this time and not after. Big time

news with a trade in this year's draft. Not surprisingly, two teams known for doing this are trading up and down. The Saints trade up in the 2022 draft, they get number 16, number 19, and number 194 from the Eagles, who now get 18, 101, a 2023 first round pick and a 2024 second round pick. That's a lot. So pretty simply here, the Eagles have traded away one of their first round picks to the Saints, essentially, and gotten a third rounder and then picked up a first next year and a second the year after that.

Timo Risk from PFF did a very quick bit of math. If you value later picks less, it's a pick in the 40s about for the Eagles that they get from moving down here. If you want to value them a little bit more, which I think we could, it's about a pick in the 20s. So the Eagles get value. When you trade down, you get value. That's how this works. So I want to parse how much value and what the motivations for these teams might be. So for Philly, right, it makes sense for them to do this.

They had three first round picks. So when you saw this, my first thought was, of course they did this. They've wanted to do this. What was your initial reaction from the Eagles perspective here? You kind of hinted at it. These two teams make sense. Saints trading up, Eagles trade down. It's like, yep, let's dance with the one of the run.

They're two of the most trade happy teams in the league. If you look at it, the most trade happy teams in the draft over the last four years have been the Patriots who trade up and down a lot, actually. They trade up more than you think they do. The Seahawks, the Rams, who also trade down a lot. They're just very trade happy. The Eagles and the Saints. Those are the teams that trade the most in the draft.

The Saints, since 2011, I believe this is Mickey Loomis's 16th trade up. That is the most in the NFL. They have never traded down. That's amazing. In that span, they have never traded down. So very on brand. But anyway, from Philly's perspective, why does this make sense to you? He's the opposite of Dave Gettleman.

Oh, it's incredible. It's incredible. That's amazing. Now, for the Eagles, it just, it's, hey, we got what's get as money assets as we can. We had three this year, all in the teens. So you're in kind of a weird spot. You know, it's the I have the beholder range as far as kind of value which you get in the teens as far of those picks. So I can see why they're doing this.

Hey, maybe they don't like a quarterback. Maybe they do like a quarterback this year. Whatever. They're going with jail and Hertz. But they have bullets to build up their defense, to restock get another pass catching option. And now taking that third pick, maybe they're like, okay, we don't really like a third guy. we have all over middle rounders anyways. All right, let's just get more assets for down the road.

Let's get another big pick. Let's get another couple big picks for down the road. Just more asset accumulation. So that just makes all the sense in the world. The Saints, though, it's interesting because we'll talk about a sec, but it's just, it's very saints like to do this because that means they maybe have an eye on a guy. So let's talk about the Eagles from here for a second. All right.

So two things from me from Philadelphia's perspective. One, you avoid three fifth year options in the same time. Yes. Right. So those are going to be bigger contracts. you push that into a future year, so you don't have to worry about all of those decisions piling up at the exact same time

five years from now. So I think that makes sense. You get yourself that coveted extra first round pick. There's a chance the saints are not good. And there's always a chance that it can go off the rails with the first round pick. When the Texans traded those first round picks, when they had Deshawn Watson, the thought was

they're going to be good. They have a top six-ish quarterback. Those picks will be the 20s, yeah. And it was a, it was a, Top five pick. Russell Wilson. The Seahawks traded those picks of the Jets in the Jamal Adams deal. Think, oh, Russell Wilson's there.

There's no way the Seahawks will be bad. Russell Wilson gets hurt. That's a top 10 pick. So there's always uncertainty with that. And for the Eagles, you're betting against the Saints in this situation, but you're also betting on the quarterback class next year potentially. Now you have two first round picks in a class that universally is more liked from a quarterback perspective.

So even if you want to give Jaylen Hertz this year, now you have the ammunition for next year. The funniest part, though, is a lot of teams have the ammunition next year. Five teams already. Five have multiple first round picks in the 2023 draft. The Eagles now do, the Texans, the dolphins, the Seahawks, and the Lions. So five teams, all of whom theoretically could be in the quarterback market next year. So there are teams with assets and potentially motivation to go get one of those guys.

It is going to be fireworks next year to be. to see what happens with that entire situation. But you have to arm yourself. You have to give yourself that sort of firepower to make this move. And with the Eagles, I just think that Howard Roseman's in a certain situation where he's got job security. You know, they're building something. They're in a weird place where they're a playoff team last year, but they're not as close as that might indicate. They have aging parts of the roster.

I mean, this makes total sense from their perspective. This is the patient analytically correct decision of which you would expect from Philadelphia. And I think it totally aligns with their timeline, their interests, and where they need to be a year from now. If they say, you know what, Jalen's not the guy. He probably earned another year, but that's what he earned. And at this time next year, it's very possible that they know they need somebody else. And now they have a chance to go do that, whether it's in the draft or in the veteran market to see however that ends up shaking out. And as we've realized, it's building the roster.

so it's attractive and having bullets to make a move. How are those bullets are fired, either moving up in the draft or moving back in the draft, getting more stuff if you want to just keep kicking the can or moving it to get another guy. We Eagles were kind of tagged as a team to watch for maybe at the QB market. All those picks end up in the teens. That's not as sexy. And so they now it's next year. What if that pick?

What if they're in the teens with their pick again and the Saints are pick eight? That's very movable to pick two. There you go. You never. Yeah. And also, oh, guess what? we also have an extra second rounder the next year. We'll just use that, throw that in there.

None of all more R picks anyways. It's just acid accumulation. It makes so much sense. You very narrowed it down, or broke it down great because like next year with that draft class, there's already guys that we know names of already leading into that class. And you never know who crops up. You never know. That's what the QB classes.

They fluctuate so much every class of every position, especially quarterbacks. So it just makes all the sense in the world, just getting out a more of a timeline. the fifth year option thing, that's another great call. Also just like, hey, we're in a nice spot. Do we really need another rookie? Maybe we, you know, do we really need another guy that maybe we don't love? Because there's a lot of guys in that pick 15 through 60 range that are very interchangeable as far as grades. So it's like, do we need another one of those guys that we take a chance on that we have to pay more than really we'd prefer to get a pick 42, you know, et cetera, et cetera.

So it makes all the sense of the world for the Eagles. For the Saints, too, it's very interesting because of how many timelines they can go on because they're in a weird. kind of win nowish mode as far as some of their roster and also just like some it's getting more expensive and now they're having to have like part ways with some of their stalwart guys like a taran arm said and all that they're trying to figure out the quarterback situation james winston gets hurt again eagles are going to be very happy you know you never know what they're going to go for that so this this to me the move that they just made if it's not for a quarterback i think it's a pretty big mistake i agree you don't

don't know how the draft is going to fall. Yes. So now you just, when the Niners did this last year, or even when the Eagles, the Dolphins did it last year, the Niners moving up to three. And we know who the first two picks are. They had to pay out the nose to go do that. But there was certainty in the move that they made. When the dolphins were going to six, there are only so many guys, right?

I mean, if you're doing that for Jalen Waddle, even in the moment, you're either getting Jalen Waddle, Kyle Pitts, or Jemar Chase, most likely with the move that you just made. When there's a bunch of quarterbacks at the top, that means all the other positions start falling down. Now you're doing this for 16 and 19. Who the hell knows what those picks are going to look like or who's going to be there? I mean, theoretically, Mina made this point on Twitter, and I thought it was interesting. They get ahead of the Chargers who also need a tackle and a receiver in the same way that the Saints do. But that's a pretty big premium to pay to jump one team when there are 15 guys that go off the board in a draft where everyone has admitted.

They don't know shit. No one knows anything. Who's going to go anywhere because of how the valuations are all over the place. So this just feels to me like they're trying to make a big jump up there for somebody. Whether it's a quarterback or somebody else. If it's for somebody else, I'd be, I don't know how I'd respond. Who would that be for? If it's for a quarterback, I guess it can make sense.

But we don't love any of the quarterbacks here. So how this ends up going is fascinating. but I have to assume that they're not done making these moves. Yeah, this feels like the first domino fall. And that's the thing like you just said with 49ers moving up to pick three. The draft started at three last year. I mean, more or less. We all kind of, I mean, the odds of Zach Wilson being the number two pick.

We're at like minus 900, like with a month ago before the pick or before the draft started. So when you're in those teens, it's, I mean, when it's a heavy quarterback draft or a good quarterback draft, the other positions value, you get better value. at the other spots just because of the premium that quarterbacks get paid or looked at. So this draft, okay, terrible quarterback class by all accounts, doesn't matter who you are, all the other positions. There's a lot of guys. It's not a great draft class to have a top five pick, but it's a great draft class

to have these teen picks, but you don't move up for that. I don't know. It's very interesting. I could see this going down several paths, but I just highly, highly, highly think it's unlikely that it's for a different position other than quarterback. Yeah, it just feels like that's on the horizon. here. And I could be totally wrong, but that's the sense that I get. Why you do it now

with not knowing who's going to be available. If it was the day, if it was during the first round, it'd be like, oh, okay, okay. But it was like, yeah, they want, so and so. There's a receiver they love. You know, there's a tackle that fell. It's like, oh, we have those spots. We want to win now. We can have those two guys slot in right away.

But to do it this early, it's just, I don't know. My spidey sense is going off. Yeah. So if you're a team, like, the Jets or the Giants potentially, right? Like, you have those two first round picks in a top five or top 10 makes total sense for you to want to trade with the Saints. If they want to go up into one of those, now you go down to 16 and 19 and you hopefully can find a partner to continue to trade down and continue to stockpile assets so you can

potentially at a certain point, go get your quarterback next year if you want to. If you're the Giants, if you're the Jets, then this is, I hope you're not doing that. But if you're the Giants, then that's what you would love, right? Like, let's continue to stockpile assets and give ourselves a chance. I mean, think about, again, we're going to make this connection a million different times with the Giants and the Bills. Think about how the bills got Josh Allen. They traded up multiple times. Kind of one of the more fascinating movements into the top 10 in recent memory.

Because remember, they traded Cordy Glenn. And so they traded Cordy Glenn to the Bengals. And they moved up in that move from like 21 to 12 and then eventually moved up into the top. top 10 to go get Josh Allen. Meandered their way up there. But that's what you have to do. Right? Like if you pick up an extra second here, you move up eight spots here, you move up eight spots there.

So if you're the Giants and you're looking at what I assume is like a rebuild necessarily, they have a lot of players under contract, but they can remake the roster and whatever they want next year, hopefully. You want as many resources. Exactly. As many resources you can possibly stockpile. So I assume in this draft where there isn't a top. of true blue chip talents, you'd be able to find a willing trade partner in the top 10.

I don't think that would be hard if you're New Orleans making some calls right now. Yeah. And especially what you're saying with the Giants maybe, though, their second pick, the Jets that pick 10, all these guys. And that, shoot, even a team like the Falcons who need players, they're at pick eight. That's a perfect one. Oh, I know. But here's the thing. But you don't know.

They might need you too. Well, here's the question. Oh, individual. Not even that. my thing is you want to get ahead of Carolina, right? Yes. Because the whole point of this would be to remove uncertainty. So you want to be able to know you're picking a quarterback before anyone else is picking a quarterback.

I would have to assume the Lions are not going to pick a quarterback at two. I don't think so. That's my assumption here. So if you're looking at it, I think Carolina is the most likely team in the top seven to pick a quarterback. You want to get ahead of them. Yep. Makes sense to try to make a move with the Giants. That's a great call.

That's a great call. I know. It's, it's, it's, it's, oh, it's fascinating. We're a month out.

Again, I just, in the back of my mind, though, it just feels like there's something else coming, right? Something else

coming down the pipe. It's the first of several moves. It was the, the red paper clip, you know, that's what it always feels like with these trades, some of these trades,

especially with the Eagles do, how they, this was from the Carson Wets trade originally, too. So it's funny how they're turning this into pick after pick after pick after pick,

just from the Carson Wend's deal. The Eagles have gotten really good value. Oh, how you should do it is what the Eagles are doing right now. They put themselves in a really good position. With the Saints, I mean,

this is the most on-brand shit ever. It is. So far it's been fine, but it has certain point you're living dangerously when you continue to do this kind of stuff. If it's for a quarterback, we've always said, these trades for quarterbacks are often justifiable.

In a weak quarterback class, maybe a little bit less so, but we've been wrong before about which quarterbacks are going to be good in which part. The capital is typically understandable if it's for a quarterback. So that changes the conversation entirely.

If they trade up and take like sauce gardener, then it's a different thing. We're having a different conversation on draft night here. Even if I like him. Yeah. It's not about the quality of the player. It's about the process behind it. All right.

So let's get into this. So here's what we're going to do. With both you and Deonté, I'm going to have you guys lay out three or different, three or four different trends on your respective side of the ball that you think could help us better understand. and help inform this draft class and some of the players that might be in demand. So just throw your first one out for me.

What is a trend that you think is kind of crept up over the last couple years on offense in the NFL that has kind of changed the way that you look at this draft class? And this is, I mean, this is kind of like our motto of this show, but it's, or really one of our main talking points of the show, so much of the cool innovation that's really happened in the NFL has been on the defensive side. I would say innovation, but the trend and the next steps that I've been taking. in modern NFL. Deiante's part of this show is more interesting than yours.

It is, but that's, it was, and why I'm saying that is when I was doing the offensive stuff, it was, I had to start with what the defense is doing. Sure. Okay. Yeah. And then I had to project. Oh, they get paid too. It is now project what I think offenses are going to do.

What's the swing back? How is the pendulum going to swing back? Because that's what it does. That's what's so fun about football and really sports. Not just swinging back and forth between this, this being the outlier, everyone copies it. This being the outlier, everyone copies it, et cetera, et cetera. I was having a conversation last summer with Nathaniel Hackett. I was up in Green Bay and I was talking to him for a story.

And the excitement in his voice, as he was saying, the exact same thing that you just said about why it's cool because it's cyclical. It all comes back around and history informs itself. It's incredibly fun. I mean, it's the nature of what drives interest from our side of this, right? And why I'm even more excited because of my first point. And this is because this is a tradition. What's fun, and this can be kind of a theme of all. all of my points being made is because of that cycle of all of this, the time is a flat circle

of all this is big arm quarterbacks are back, baby. And that is going to be my first point. They're always invoked. Don't get me wrong. Everyone wanted, when I picture an old school 90s big arm quarterback, I picture like a Drew Blood cell, guy that can't move outside of his own shadow, but he can throw that ball 80 yards, flat footed and make all the throws to the field. And but I'm going to say why I'm saying all this is the quarterback's

to be more athletic than ever right now. But can your quarterback push the ball down the field to threaten defenses? And why I believe that is a point of emphasis and what you're going to look at all these quarterbacks and what I'm viewing some of these guys through this lens is because you see the limitations crop up with these quarterbacks that don't push the ball, the Jimmy G's of the world, that they are super accurate. They throw on time. They do all that.

But if you're not going to threaten the defenses vertically now, that you're playing right to their hands. So let me, let me ask you this because this is, this seems kind of. unintuitive to me because if we're shifting to a world where there's going to be more too high as like a regular baseline of playing defense, it feels like being able to surgically attack teams underneath is important in that world. How do I square those two things? Why do why in a more too high centric world or big arm quarterbacks even more in vogue? Because you're right. Like you see the guys that have emerged. That's true. But why? Because on its face, that seems like a contradiction. Yeah. And it does. It's it's, it's, Defenses, they want, they're playing top down now more than ever. And they want to what they call, they want you to throw the ball into the kill zone, which is throw the ball underneath and they rally to tackle. They're willing to let you take that six-yard gain as long as it's not an explosive.

They're trying to limit explosives. So I think anything in life, anything in sports or competition is, what does my opponent not want me to do? Okay, well, defense are saying, don't beat us over the top. So what am I going to do? Okay, I'm going to try and attack you over the top. And with two high defenses, it's kind of a funny thing. It's more that shorter intermediate areas they're trying to take away. I shouldn't say that because backside digs.

But deep balls and run game is kind of like where you can see it's swing back a little bit. It's going to look very North Turner style offenses, Mike Mart's style offenses, all these seven-step vertical concepts. Because what the defense is want you to do. And yes, attacking underneath and being accurate underneath is always going to be important. But then after a while, defenses will get smarter, just like a batter. I brought this up last week with talking about the quarterbacks, just like a batter. and you're like, that guy comes out of the gate, a rookie, you know, a Chris Bryant comes out, boom, boom. He's getting after every pitcher coming at.

But the pitchers start figuring out, oh, man, he can't hit the change up. He can't hit the curveball. Hey, on two strikes. You got to mention Chris Bryant. I don't know why. He's a Vegas guy. So I think he was on my mind now. I've heard so much about local star Chris Bryant.

So maybe he went to Colorado. I was kind of surprised about that. But anyways, is that because of all that, going is fine. They're right going, okay, you attack underneath. We're rallying tackle for your gain. now offenses have to attack explosive plays with efficiency being a secondary victory condition. It is, do we get that 16 yards through the air? And then if we only check it down and get the four yards and that's an efficient game,

okay, that's fine. That's kind of a secondary goal, I believe now, just because of how defenses are thinking, too, they're like, you can be efficient and check it down, be a check down Charlie. This quarterback's not going to be able to be patient the entire game. So you've got to create chunks. And I think what I think a lot of teams are going to look at what, and it's nothing new, It's just how they emphasize it, what the Rams did. And I mentioned this before, all that empty stuff and being in a seven-step attack from an empty formations and how they went about it with the chip help and all that.

I think teams are going to look at that and go, we get to those old school concepts. The Y, the Y Cross, the sails, the scissors with all these big, big routes, deep routes. And I think why you need that is because you're trying to threaten the defenses down so you let everything breathe underneath. It's passing to set up the pass. which is in a weird way. That's what it is, though. Attack down the field so you can find something that's at 10 yards. So they don't,

a robber just and just smoke the guy that's underneath. I have a lot of things that what you just said brought to mind. One, with the Rams side of this, the Rams understood that those condensed formations that they were living in were actually helping teams that were living in more of that too high world. Yep. You're actually playing into their hands if you condensed down the formations and you don't spread the defense out.

So I think that has been a direct response. So I think that makes total sense. there are two plays that come to mind when you're talking about this. One is the missile shot from Josh Allen in that Chiefs game. Where we're sitting there the whole time being like, when are they going to go over the top of this? Because that's what they want you to do is live underneath like that. And then he hits that missile shot to Gabriel Davis.

And that's the threat that defenses have to worry about and that changes the way that they play. And then the other one is that post touchdown from Green Bay against the Rams two years ago in the playoffs. where that's the past to set up the pass, right? They're, they're squeezing on things. They're playing hard downhill. And eventually, when they get impatient, then you can beat them over the top like that. And that ability to do that, I think, makes total sense.

And the whole thing is it, it seems so simple to say, well, now big arm quarterbacks are in vogue. Now we should want big arm quarterbacks. And people, I think a natural response to that would be, well, haven't we always wanted that? No. Because that's, that was my original point, too. It was like, yeah, no shit.

kind of went away from it. Sorry, I interrupted you. Well, think about what quarterbacks look to like. And this is always, the NFL works in, I think, archetypal ways where you have guys that are successful and then you have people chasing that type of person, whether it's head coaches right now. That's why head coaches all look the same. And that's problematic in more than one way. But everyone's, I want my Sean McVeigh. Yeah.

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady ruined quarterback play for like 15 years. because every single person wanted Peyton Manning. So you're thinking of this type of quarterback. And Peyton Manning was a physically gifted quarterback when he was younger. But you still want this like cerebral surgeon to play the position. And now it's like we want big guy throw far and it's really helpful. And so that pendulum swing I think is worth pointing out because it might seem obvious, but it's not based on what teams have been chasing for the previous 10 years.

Yeah. It's funny how how much like FARV has become more of the arch type of. what you want now. And then instead of like Peyton, even though, you know, not mentally and stuff like that, but just how Farr've created play, go get a bucket, big arm, all that stuff. That's Farrb to a T. So it's just kind of funny how, because no one has ever used Brett Farrv as teach tape because no one in the history of time because he just is Brett Fav.

He just does it his way. And I think that's exactly right. Is now is everyone just thought, oh, one, two, three, balls out every single time. And ball goes to the perfect spot every single time. When Mack Jones was coming out last year, that was. okay, he was super accurate. Everything came out on time. But I saw some people going, well, Drew Breeze wins this way.

It's like Drew, Drew Brees has 20 years of NFL reps to build on. Of course he can win this way now. But when you're entering the league now, it has to be different. You have to win in other ways unless you are just a superhuman of super human. Drew Brees' stats when he was a rookie. Drew Brees' stats over his first two years are like historically bad. Yeah. Like historically bad.

And that difference. And we've had this conversation a lot of times. the show, but those guys came up in a world, I mean, think about when they were drafted. Payman was drafted in 1998. Drew Brees was drafted in 1990. 99 or 2000? It might have been 2000. 2000.

Tom Brady was drafted in 2000. So all of those guys were drafted at a time where you could attempt like 375 passes as a young rookie quarterback. Ben Rothesberger's stats during his rookie season in 2004. He throws the ball like 17 times a game. you could live that way. You can't be that anymore. You can't protect your quarterback in that way.

So you don't have those conditions where guys are protected and insulated with their offense and a run game. Even Russell Wilson, to a certain extent, was like that early in his career. And I think that that's just really difficult to do. It's hard to protect and marginalize your quarterback that much in 2022 and still be a relatively good team. So I just think that those circumstances are much harder to replicate. And this is what's always...

When I was at Wisconsin, I was always curious. We didn't run any quick game at Wisconsin. I like anything. We didn't run stick. We didn't run anything because we had a run game. And that was Coach Chris is his thinking. And a lot of people, a lot of offense guys will think this way is quick game was originally to, it was past the set up the run. That was the whole West Coast thinking with quick game was we're going to throw slants and flats and stick routes and just get the ball out.

Quick outs. Everything's out because now we don't have to run the ball. That's how we're attacking horizontally and shorter. And now what's happening is defenses, they adapt over time. Everyone has gotten used to defending quick game and defending this type of attack. So now it's reverted back to, okay, well, now we have to run the ball to attack the short area. How do we attack down the field? So it's almost like you don't want to be redundant and say we run the ball and we run a quick game.

It's like I always felt that's like when offenses do that, it's very redundant because you already are attacking that way. Yes, you're always going to need some aspects of quick game. You're always going to need aspects of running the ball. but kind of majoring in those two things. And I think now is with quarterbacks have to throw the ball 40 plus times a game in a normal game script because that's what they were trying to replace the run by throwing quick game. That's what that was just the thinking.

This is just all kind of like theory and philosophical looking at an offense. But now as I think teams are going to reemphasize, I'm just going to bring us to another point that I'll have down the road. But teams are going to reemphasize running the ball because defense is sitting in too high. It's more friendly to run the ball. It's just the box count. are better. So if we can run the ball more, we don't need quick game as much. Now, when we do pass the ball, it has to be more down the field because we have to make it worthwhile. Why would we make

all this effort to get a four-year gain throwing the ball when we get a four-year game running the ball and it can actually affect the defenses a little more? I think that's really the trend that we might start seeing a little bit more. It's just every that kind of just pushing, pushing, touchdown to check down kind of philosophical look at an offense. And the other thing that would just to put a bow on this really quickly with the type of speed and the type of throws down the field that might be more prevalent. When you think about how speed was utilized in a world where a lot of teams are playing that more Seattle-based single high, it's crossers, right?

The speed is across the field and vertical rather than like posts straight down the field because against those defenses, the post safety is sitting in the middle of the field. Now there isn't one. So if you can attack straight down the middle of the field with those throws, that's just long speed and bombs away. It's just much different. It's exactly that throw I'm talking about with the bills against the chiefs. And it's as opposed to those Seattle cover threes, they would have so much strain on the linebacker to run speed at three to run with those overs.

Now the defenses are top down. It's a safety coming down on the over and wiping it out because as a quarterback, if I'm looking, I see a defense. He's breaking on an overrout. I'm not going to throw that. But if it's a linebacker trying to run with my receiver or my fast tight end, yeah, I'm going to try and throw them open. I'm going to try and put it over the top. So now if the safety wants to come down, you're right past them. Well, let's go right past them.

And now he's not so eager to come down because he just got torched over the top. And now the over opens up and et cetera, et cetera. That's the dominoes that fall. All right. Before we move on, which quarterbacks in this draft is this thought process apply to? Like, how does this affect this group and the way that you look at it? And this is what the appeal of Malik Willis is that he is pushing it down the field. He is willing to throw those throws.

And even this is a part of me that likes Desmond Ritter because he is kind of that controlled aggression. and that once in while, if he sees, hey, he threw the over and that guy broke on it, the next time they run that play, he's going to throw the alert. That's, I think that's a way to look at. Alerts, and I've talked about this before, alerts is usually the first route you're taught on a concept. The alert's usually a post or a go. And it's the quarterback coach's way of kind of talk about both sides of his mouth. Like, because if you throw it and it was a shitty throw or something, hey, remember that was the alert, that's not number one.

But then if it's, you throw it to number one and it gets smoked by the safety to go, hey, remember the alert, you're supposed to peek the alert first. It's all it's just a way to do that, but the alerts are live again. So who's willing to throw the alert? Who's willing to throw those posts? And that's the Desmond Ritters of the world and the Malik Willses is the world. That's that's the appeal of those two guys. All right.

So by extension here, let's talk about how this affects the guys catching the ball. Talk about how it affects him throwing the ball. How has this trend and this movement affected the way the demands were putting on receivers and how you're viewing this draft class as a result? Yeah, I got to thank the NFL for. getting the offense is to go back to what I grew up with with big arm quarterbacks and traditional X receivers and and also power slots, but I'll talk about in a sec, but size and or speed at receiver is back, a true X, a guy that can attack vertically. And that just goes hand in hand. You know who runs

those alerts? The X usually on these concepts. They're the ones run the takeoff post, the takeoff go or hitting a backside dig if the concept's going the other way. An X receiver is in a traditional sense. If an offense is in a trips, three by one formation, they're the one. If they are in a two by two, the X is either going to be the outside receiver and the two receiver side or sometimes they can be on the tight end side, but again, they're going to be the lone receiver on that side. So those kind of, that's why the size and vertical speed, so true X's that can run a vertical route tree, the stops, the comebacks, the goes, the digs, that these guys are coming back. The T. Higgins of the world. The Mike Williams.

of the world. There's a reason Mike Williams had a blow up year this year because, well, one, the Saints, you know, value having a traditional X, but two is just defensive playing them. They're giving them these opportunities down the field that can attack vertically. So why that matters is they have to be true iso ball guys. You need size at that position because they're posting up. They are in the post, throwing the hand up like an old school power for it. These guys are back in vogue. And I think it was just, they're always big receivers are always can be liked, but I think now it's not so much like, oh, we need this guy to be a 438 Twitchy guy. We can live with a 4-5-5 guy because now we're worried more about body size and that they can have

build-up speed down the field. So I think really just size and speed at those positions, those outside receiver spots is coming back. And then the other spot is I'm never going to miss an opportunity to talk about this as power slots are back. But I'll use that to dovetail into a later point as well. So when you look at it's funny because if you look at T. Higgins, and Mike Williams, they're actually very close comparisons physically, like pre-draft comps. If you look at something like mock draftable,

they're in that conversation. So this group that was looking at us, I wonder how similar like Drake London is to those guys. He is one of their exact comps. So there are like very real examples. Yes. In this, in this group.

And like you can just see it. Like that's the type of player that it may be more in vogue and more necessary in this conversation than he might have been a few years ago. And it's also, it may seem, kind of obvious like oh well yeah you know you want a true number one receiver and and all that kind of stuff but if you look at some of these guys that have been really really good receivers in the NFL true number one receivers in the NFL a lot of these guys are spending a lot of time

in the slot so devante adams had 78 slot targets this year all right that was the 10th most in the league tyriek hill had 94 that was the fourth most in the league cooper cup was a slot receiver this year more he led the league in slot targets this season so you have these guys that are number one receivers theoretically right but they're spending a lot of time in the slot compared to what these traditional ex receivers that you're talking about might do so i think that's important because again it's just like oh yeah well you course you need a number one receiver yeah but a lot of in recent years that number one receiver has been somebody that you can move inside and out it's been a little bit more the skill set has been different yes and that's the emphasis always

is a guy that can win it because you don't want an outside only guy, but I think now it's they're not as devalued as maybe a couple years ago. And that goes hand in hand with how how do we say overrout? Where do you got where do you put the guy that's running the overrout number three spot in the slot? Yep. Okay. Now as we get okay now we want digs and now we want posts and now we want deep comebacks and all that those are outside routes. So I think these type and you know it doesn't have to be the true number one type but a valuable guy. A Michael Gallup is a good example as well. He's more six foot, six one-ish, but, you know, a traditional X. That's a good way to put it.

That's why I'm high. I'm like a guy like DJ Chark because I think he's going to be more useful in this type of the defenses that they're going to face now. Do you think there are more contested catch situations with the way that defenses are playing right now than there would have been why? Just because how the defense is. Okay. So for I'm in a trips, it's a true one-on-one situation with a guy that's going, they're taught to play over the top. And even with more zone, a lot of those looks are true one-on-one man-time. type situations with the way that teams with the way that zone plays out.

So that because it's interesting because there's much less man than there was two or three years ago in the league. So you think, are there as many tight window throws. But if you are that X, you're still playing against a lot of man like looks the way that it all plays out. Yep. It's ISO ball. And so that's why contested catches come.

If you operate from the slot, whether it's zone or man, just how those routes are, you attack routes, it's not as many contestant catches. It's angle routes. It's sail routes. so you can run away from guys more. Tyra Kill. Yeah, Tiger Kill. That's what you have to picture.

That's any route that he runs. And then if you're a traditional X, I'll just say we're an outside guy, how you can attack is limited in some ways. It has to be. And it's a slant route. Like that is just how these routes have to be because it's just where you're aligned in the formation. So those become more contested catch box out types of guys.

And that's why a great point is, you know, we'll talk about receivers on a later podcast. But yeah, this class has a good chunk of guys that fit this mold. Who else? Drake London. And then you got the two hurt guys, Justin Ross and George Pickens, who both could be traditional exes. Alec Pierce from Cincinnati. Another one is David Bell.

But David Bell, I would prefer, he's from Purdue. I would prefer him as a power slot. I compared him to Joshua Palmer from, with the Chargers now from Tennessee. Jalen Tolbert from South Alabama. Christian Watson from North Dakota State. These are traditional big body guys that can attack vertically. We will be talking about the receivers on Thursday. So there was one more thing you wanted to hit on with the receivers before we got to a different trend here.

What was the last thing that you wanted to mention? Yeah, it's emerging of body types. And this is a little bit of theory. And it's going how we've looked at defense. It's been so, so cool. Coach is willing, it's X is on the chalkboard. It's not you're a strong safety, you're a middle linebacker. You are a nickel.

It is, no, you are a spot on the chalkboard. And why I'm bringing that up is on defense aside, those merging of body types, because how defenses are comfortable now treating receiving only tight ends and also with bigger receiver types. Like I just mentioned David Bell from Purdue. Chris Godwin is another great example. Alan Lazard, those power slots, my type of guys. But why I'm bringing into merging of body types is defenses are going, Travis Kelsey, Mike

Gassicki, you are a receiver. Yes, technically, you are in 12 personnel, two tight ends. We are a nickel or dime. We are treating you like a receiver. Okay. So now that kind of F tight end, move tight end in these bigger power slot receivers, it's become almost like a hybrid position. It doesn't just have to be a tight end, doesn't have to be a receiver.

It's more that 6-2 to 6-4, 215-pound body type now that we can move around the formation. So I just think it's more of a, it's a blending of styles. It's not styles, but blending of what they're asking these guys to do. More receivers are getting asked to basically be a de facto fullback on duo and the at you run. That's just because of the prevalence of 11 personnel. Yeah, it's a 11 person. It's trying to get to those runs out of 11 personnel.

It's trying to get to 12% of runs out of the last like five years, right? Exactly. And now everyone's doing it. But also with two high defenses is that the safety is back and these receivers have to dig out the safeties. Say if I am a back receiver and they're too high, if they're in quarters, that safety, the free safety, has to come down and fill the run. So now X receivers more than ever have to run in and block guys. And same with the slot receivers.

Okay, if this defense we play, how many teams are going big nickel now and having a safety as a slot guy, you know, playing as the overhang, the star position, however you want to put it. Bigger body type. Well, we need a bigger receiver to block them because if we just have like a Cole Beasley, he's going to get, you know, he's going to be taking charges all day. Like, you know, that's what's going to look like. So I think now it's, there's emphasis more on the run game.

So now and there's emphasis on these defensive guys having. a whole bunch of 250 to 230 pound defenders. So we need to get these guys bigger as well. So I think there's just going to be kind of a merging of body type. It's more just going to be like, that's the F role, not 11 or 12 personnel. It's just who do we have as the F, which is the third receiver? If you have a guy like Mike Issiki who's not a plus blocker and they're going to treat him like a receiver with the way that they match personnel, what is the benefit of a player like that?

It's a luxury player. That's what I, that's my hesitation always with crowning a guy like that. they have to be such a mismatch every snap to justify doing that because it's mostly a size mismatch that in that situation right so where is that effective the red zone so how do we get to the red zone oh we got to figure it out because you're handicapped yourself in some ways you have to have another tight end you know you're kind of rob and peter to pay paul because now we need a tight end that can actually block and block in line that defenses are going to honor otherwise we go to 11 personnel with mic isicki we're in 10 personnel and defenses are just going to treat us different and that's why it's so

interesting that we're going to talk about this with Deontay a little bit later. But the two of the guys in the NFL that played the most slot snaps as non-slot corners on defense this year, Devondre Campbell was number one among non-safeties or cornerbacks. And another guy who played a ton of snaps in the slot that's not a corner is J. Ron Curse. Both of those guys have 34-inch arms. Yep. So a lot of those guys in that slot roll, if you're going to play like that, if the size mismatches the benefit of it, we're going to match that with length is what a lot of defenses are doing.

which is really interesting to me. I think that's, to me, the natural extension of that is I just want a receiver that can block. Yep. Like, that's what I want to live in now. I would much rather have the Godwins of the world. Like, MVS now and what he can do for the chiefs compared to what Tyree Kill was. They're the three.

He'll is a better player than MVS, but it's, there are benefits to those players. The power slots are the three and D guys of football. You are, hey, this guy, if you have a good one, it's going to unlock so much for everybody else. In basketball, it's spacing. In football, it's weak and. runner pass. It's basically these power slots are becoming what we used to know as the F-tide-end. So I think it's just like they, it's the adjuster. That's what these spots called. So the adjuster is now these guys that are willing to get gritty, the Zach Pascal's of the world of the

world. Check. We got to mention him on another podcast. So perfect. But those guys, those guys, like those are the guys that are going to be more and more valuable as teams are like, oh, shit, we actually need that. If we want to have a run game that gets more than three yards, four yards of pop, we need a guy that's going to dig out of safety or block a linebacker sometimes. All right. Last one here. What was the last one that you had? Last one was just interior offensive line size.

Again, we're getting back to like what I know. And no shit. You want an offensive guard that weighs 320 pounds that can move. No, like, don't get me wrong. But we need. Not anymore though. Not anymore. We need guys now have to be athletic enough to do the zone stuff.

But yet pass protection is king. Past protection protecting the passenger is king. And why I'm mentioning that, not just the pluggers, but why I'm mentioning that is because defense is now everybody has a NASCAR package of some. way shape or four. It's either it could be a four down, just normal look, but with all four D-N types or edge types, or it can be what the 49ers did last year. Arden Key is our nose. And we're going to run all these games and move guys around. And all these guys can bring fucking heat. I mean, Eric Armstead is their base down three technique this year. Now imagine you have a big

stiff guard right there. That's only can, you know, can't can't pass protect. He's just a run first guy. He's dead dead in the water because they just can't move with those guys, especially if they have a length and they have speed and athleticism that they can take advantage of. So I don't know, I didn't know how to frame it. I said interior offense align size, but maybe I think more pass protection from interior offense alignment and size to hold up against guys that are more of those tweener five technique types that they might bump down on pass rush downs. You bringing this up and sent me down a rabbit hole just like measurables.

If you look at it, like the guards who we think were the best guards in the NFL last year, a lot of them. Chris Lindstrom is somebody that came to mind. I was looking through guards drafting the last three or four years that have been successful, what their just physical profile looks like, right? Chris Littsdenham 64308. Yep.

At the combat. Ridiculous testing numbers. 98th percentile broad jump, 80th percentile short shuttle and vertical. He was 98th percentile broad jump. 98th percentile broad jump. He's explosive. So if you look at the comps to him physically in a lot of different spaces, Lance Zerline on his NFL draft profile of Chris Linsstrom pre-draft, his comp was

Joel Botonia. Joe Botonia weighed 302 at the combine. 95th percentile were better in every single movement drill at the combine was Joe Betonio. Joe Betonio's two closest athletic comps on mock draftable physically are Ali Marpet and Joe Tuny. So what we've just done is list off four of like the five or six all pro guards in the NFL with one body tight from the last two years. It's amazing. When I saw it all laid out like that, I was like, holy shit, they're all the same. They are.

They all are built and moved the same. And these are all guys that are 6.3, 6, 4, 305 pounds. And if you look at that weight all time, the last 20 years of combined data, it's 20th percentile weights. I mean, it's undersized by traditional standards to be that as a guard. And those guys have, over the last three or four years, consistently, turn the same. into the best players in the league at that position. It's, it's so funny is that, and I've just thought about this when you're talking, is that I wouldn't say it's emerging, but it's speed.

Speed's, speeds the game of the game. That's, it's, it's, everyone's getting sleeker and more athletic. Every spot's getting more athletic. And every other position is getting, I would say smaller, but just more fit. You're not getting the sloppy 338 pound, only Wisconsin guard that only can block power. You know, you're not getting that anymore. That this is where the Shanahan influence comes through. And it's just, this is every.

Everybody has to move. And everybody, there's reasons that there's, it used to be as you can have these 29l-pound guards because they'll just get bull rush. Yeah. Defenses get lighter, as we talked about with safeties and linebacker body types. And defenses up front, they get lighter. Offenses can get lighter as well. And by lighter, I'm not saying 280 pounds, but just more 305, 302, 300 flat as opposed to

328, 330. But that's why I think that this idea of just space eaters on the interior in order to steal back gaps and just push the pocket is a way that you can cheaply find small advantages against players like this. 1,000%. There's a reason Vita Vaya is so valuable right now is because who can block him one-on-one if everyone's going to be 290. You know, if you got a guy weighing 295 at center, you know, that's why those big, big,

it's funny. Again, it's full circle. Those guys were going out. Everyone had had pass-ritch ability for the last decade. It was like, nope, unless they get four sacks at nose, we don't really want them. And now it comes back full circle that it's like, no, we actually do want size on the interior because now we don't get that safety down the box. We need a guy that can occupy too. So everybody else can make the tackle or we can make a play on the ball.

So this class specifically, it's very, very funny how similar Zion Johnson's testing numbers are to every single one of these guys, Zan Johnson from Boston College. So he was the guy that jumped out. And then Cole Strange from UT Chattanooga, who is another interior offensive lineman with great testing numbers similar to these guys. like right in the same range when you're looking at their overall athletic profile and just percentiles, all that stuff. So all right. Yeah. Athletes, speed kills, baby. This was great.

This was absolutely fantastic. All right. We're going to get to Deontay one more time, buddy. Congratulations. Very proud of you. Very excited to continue doing this. And I hope you got to enjoy it today. Oh, I did.

Thank you so much, man. I'm so excited. All right. We'll talk to you later. All right. I am thrilled now to welcome staff writer. for the athletic. Fuck yeah, that sounds good.

Deontay Lee. How you doing, my friend? Feeling good, man. It is, I would have never imagined that by the time I made my next appearance, that that's how I'd be introduced. But, you know, things move quickly, and I'm glad to be here. I was so thrilled when I heard that this was a possibility. I have been such a fan of your work for so long.

I was pretty open last year about the fact that I thought you were doing work that was as good as anybody in our business. And I am so, so happy that you were a part of what we're doing here. I called you today and it's I let you know like this is going to be I'm going to annoy the shit out of you. Like I'm going to ruin your life with how often I'm going to bug you about being on the show and how you can contribute in all these ways because I cannot wait to have you as a part of what we're doing over here. Absolutely. I mean, it's not just you and I obviously having Nate on board, Nick Baumgartner being able to talk with Bruegler. Like there's just so many good things happening just on the draft side.

And then as that kind of stretches out and all the rest of the NFL coverage, I'm, I'm, I can't wait. I know I've talked to you about this, but almost everybody that I like works here. So I'm looking forward to, you know, kind of touching on as many different things as I can. You're going to be on here regularly, and we're going to start today. And we're going to do the defensive side of the conversation that we just had with Nate. And we're going to run through just a few different positions on the defensive side of the ball and how changes in what we expect from that position, what that position looks like could influence and affect the way that we're looking at this year's crop of play.

So I want to start with interior defensive line. And I want to pose this question to you off the top. How do you think what is asked of that position in the NFL has changed over the last two to three years? So this is actually a conversation that I think I've been having over the same span of time, which is after this generation of three techniques leave, do we think that there are going to be any more elite three techs in the NFL anymore? I love this so much because it's almost a. extension of the conversation Nate and I had about quarterbacks where you have like this archetype at the position and when they age out is that going to shift. So the guys that you're talking about, right, we've already seen a couple of them leave like Gino Atkins. Geno Atkins is in that conversation.

Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald. Yep. And like those are the guys. And all of those guys are 30 or even a little bit older than 30. Right. Like with Fletcher Cox specifically, this one year deal kind of feels like a golden parachute, right? Like, yeah. Thank you for your service. but we know that you're on the way out here. Aaron Donald obviously flirting with retirement. I'm sure that that's going to be on the horizon soon enough. Even like, you know, your Hayward in Pittsburgh, like once these guys start getting into their 30s. He's a little different though, right?

A little bit because you can flex him in different ways. You can make him an edge if you want to. You can do a lot of different things with that guy. He's not the three technique archetype that I'm thinking of with Fletcher Cosby. He's more of a pocket pusher too. Right, exactly. The strength he plays with just like the demands that he can give you is a little bit different. So that part is really interesting.

So why do you say that? Why do you think that when those guys are gone, we're going to see different sorts of players sift through or come through that pipeline of the interior defensive line? Well, A, I think that first, if you're looking at the college game, just what's matriculating up into the NFL, these body types just don't really exist at that position anymore. Like we're seeing you're either Uber heavy, right? We've got all these 315, 320 pound guys, you know, who play from nose out to like a two eyes, so inside shade of the guard. and then you see anybody who's basically not over 300 pounds trying to be an edge, right? And you look at the only guy in this class, I think that might be able to fit that kind of three technique mode that we're talking about is a Logan Hall from Houston. And he's like 6-6-260.

And he's been basically climbing in weight every year that he was at Houston. And, you know, I'm not even sure how if you would use him as a three technique in the league because of how big he is, how tall he is. So, you know, as you're just looking at the talent and the pipeline of talent, that's just not what we're getting out of the college game anymore. And I think, you know, similarly to what happens on the offensive end is everybody keeps borrowing from the Shanahan tree, you're starting to see the Vic Fangio tree start to spread. You're seeing, you know, Todd Bowles and that kind of three, four, barefront style of defense start to spread. And those just don't, those defenses don't ask the same kinds of things of those three techniques. You're not asking those guys to win against guards one-on-one and pass-rest situations now. Even with the rare, which- What are you asking them to do?

It's more pocket push and you want your big run-stuffing guys. and I think that this will kind of dovetail into a conversation I'm sure we'll have in the future about what that means for linebackers as well. But a lot of what we're seeing now is speed, less size at the second level of the defense, wanting guys who can move laterally. And if you want guys who can do that, you need bodies on the interior that can eat up space. So you're not going to get your 265-pound three technique who's just got great hands, right? And you can manufacture so much now in the NFL. See all these teams get into these five-down looks on passing downs. and you're putting your best pass rushers inside and running all these stunts and things like that.

It just doesn't call for, hey, we're just going to line up four guys and you guys are all going to tear off up the field. First one so the quarterback wins. It's just not really the world that we live in in the NFL anymore. It's so interesting because the teams that do have these guys, like we just talked about a couple of the examples, the Schwartz Eagles played like that. Yes. Where it's just these are the four guys. These guys are coming in the gaps that they're in.

It's not going to be hard to predict. We know where they're coming from. And another team that does a lot of that, right? Indy with the Forrest Buckner. There just aren't that many examples of this anymore. It's why the Bears were going to overspend on Larry Ogun Joby, because that position within that defense is so important, but there are just aren't that many examples of that type of defense in the league anymore.

Right. Absolutely. And I think that, you know, when you start looking at free agency as well, look at a team like the Chargers, what do you go out and do? It's not to go find or trade for whatever the hottest three technique is. We'll just invest $15 million over two guys in Austin, Johnson, and Sebastian Joseph Day, and that'll cover a ground for the most part. And we'll get the edge rushers if we need to create pass rush.

And there are obviously different ways schematically that you can do that as well. It just does not require going out to spend $13 to $16 million on getting the best three technique in the league. That's just not the best allocation of resources right now. So how do you make up the ground in the pass rush game and how you create it then if you don't have that guy giving it to you on its own? So a lot of this, and this was kind of work that I did at my previous place, was looking at how teams like to attack these protections.

A lot of it is alignment for starters, right? Like as the league spreads out more and more, and this is another reason why you don't need dominant guys on the interior, the way that you set up protections, and I wish Nate were here because he's, he's the master, he's my kind of Yoda when it comes to pass protection stuff. As the league gets more and more spread out.

We'll let you guys interact at some point. Absolutely. Absolutely. I'm sure very soon. You know, there's only so many things you can do in pass pro. The more spread out you get. And the more spread out you get,

There's more you can do defensively up front to manipulate past protection. So if I as a defensive coach know that I can line up in certain ways where I know what protection I'm going to get, I know which one of your guards or center stinks and I can put my best guy over there and manipulate the protection, or I know where you're all pro is at and I can just load my front opposite that guy, there are different ways that you can go about manipulating the looks that you're seeing for starters. And two, to the point of having pocket pushers and things like that, all I need is late pressure. from these guys. I think that teams now are starting to realize not only these quarterbacks, but these offenses are getting more and more efficient at picking up pressures

and punishing you for it. Like, I just think about the Rams run to the Super Bowl and so much of it was we're just waiting for the moment that you run out of patience and start sending pressure at Matthew Stafford. And then we're just going to hit you over the head every single time with Cooper Cup. And we're going to see that happen more and more across the league as teams just get better and better at passing a football. So with this draft in mind, how do you think this line of thinking affects that the players here, where teams are going to look for them, just this group filtered through that lens? I think that, you know, a lot of this is kind of wrapped around the conversations that people

have been having around Jordan Davis from Georgia for the last however many months, right? How valuable is it to have a dominant nose? How valuable is it to have a dominant, you know, four, four eye technique? So a defensive tackle that's kind of stacked over an offensive. of tackle instead of just a lining in a gap. And it's interesting, right? At the beginning of the offseason, we were talking about Jordan Davis maybe being a mid-teens type of draft pick.

And I still think that you can make the argument that the value is there. It just so happens that the teams that maybe needed them most went out and addressed it by getting veterans on those mid-level deals that I think you and I were talking about before we got on the show, you know, between $7 to $10 million. So that's kind of the guy, I think, that leads a discussion. I do still expect him to be late teens to early 20s just because he's, he's so talented and obviously so athletic. I think it's hard not to try to grab that guy if he's there,

especially if you're a playoff team looking for surplus value up front. And then from there, you've got your Devante Wyatt, who I know I've talked with other guys and said that I feel like he may be considered the best defensive tackle in college football if he didn't have to play alongside the other best defensive tackle in football. So those two guys, I think, kind of lead the charge. You have Logan Hall, who I mentioned, who is kind of a tweener type between an edge rusher body-wise, but, you know, a three technique in terms of play style.

Then you got like Travis Jones, who was like some huge 330-pound guy out of Yukon, who is purely kind of like a run defender pocket pusher type. All right. Let's get to our next thing here. We're going to label this as slot defenders, not necessarily slot corners because I think that's an interesting part of this discussion. And when I say to you, when you think of a slot defender in the NFL right now, who is the first person that comes to mind?

Who is the first person that comes to mind? Actually, a guy who just got paid almost 13 and a half million to go play for the 49ers is the first name. Maybe it's because I'm looking at it in my notes, and that's your various award. You think about guys like him, Mike Hilton for the Bengals, played for the Steelers as well. You get those kind of Russell Douglas, who's another guy I'm looking at right, whose name I'm looking at right now. I think that when I think of the best or the prototypical sloth defenders, I'm thinking of corners. And not just corners, but we're thinking of like some bigger body guys. And I think that that's kind of the fascination that I have right now with this position.

You're starting to see a lot more of the six foot, six one guys, you know, guys who are 190 pounds. I think that the league is kind of starting to take a little bit more interest in getting guys who are that size closer to the line of scrimmage because of how tight and condensed a lot of these formations are getting. Again, using the Rams as an example, obviously as a team that wins a Super Bowl, they end up driving so much of the conversation, I think, in the offseason. And anytime that the Rams were concerned about stopping the run, you know what they did? They took their number one corner who happens to be the right size, right length and the right amount of physicality, and you put them in the slot when you want to play cover three and stop the run. You're not putting a Darius Williams there.

Now what is time to cover the pass, you can put your 180 pounds, shifty guy who maybe doesn't have long enough arms to press on the outside in the slot and take away things playing cover one, quarters, all those types of things. So that's kind of, I think, the dividing line that we're looking at in terms of slot defenders is, what do you need to stop the run versus what you need to do on third downs or second and obvious types of situations. So you look at it and one thing, I was looking at the slot snap numbers for defensive players at this site called Pro Football Focus.

And Jaylor Ramsey obviously, yeah, yeah, you're familiar, I think. So Jayone Ramsey obviously up there. One of the non-corneres that actually had one of the highest numbers in the entire league last year was Taylor Rep. So again, the Rams willing to put kind of unlikely body types

into that scenario. A few of the other guys in this conversation that were high up there, Cam Curl, Malcolm Jenkins, Tyron Matthew, Jaron Curse, Adrian Amos. Devondre Campbell had 157 slot snaps last year as a linebacker. It says a lot, right? It says a lot. So I actually mentioned this to Nate when we were talking about the body types that we're going to put in the slot even as tight ends, right?

The fact that teams are treating a Mike is sickie or a Travis Kelsey like a receiver now. So the thing that Devondre Campbell and especially J. Ron Curse have in comment as that slot defender that's not a corner, they look 34 inch arms. So you have this insane length at that position. So as a defensive coach, when you have a player like that or a Derwin James, who you're more than comfortable playing in the slot as a safety, what does that do for you? What sort of things does that open up for you to be able to play a guy like that in that role? So if I think of a team as an example, it will be like the 49ers. I think that teams like that, Jimmy Ward's also in this conversation.

Yes. And what that allows you to do is play nickel no matter what the hell the offense puts out on the field, right? Whether you're in tight formations, whether you're all the way spread out, you know, whether you're in 12 personnel, whatever the case may be, you have a guy that can handle playing at the line of scrimmage or out in space. And that kind of goes back to some of these safety bodies that you were talking about between, you know, your raps, your Derwin James. You have those kind of tweener types like I was talking about with Mike Hilton.

having that length, that size, the ability to set the edge against all these teams who want to run outside zone, want to get in a bunch and run duo, want to get into these tight formations and run these bootlegs, or you're getting these tight ends out in space and one-on-one tackle situations with defensive backs. You don't want your 180-pound guy, you know, who treats tackling as though it's optional, you know, out in the flat against some of these bigger body guys, right? You need guys who can really stand up. And I think that that actually kind of makes the conversation. about the draft and corners really, really interesting because some of the best slot defenders that are available to me are those smaller bodies. So I do think that there's going to be a bit of tension in what's available versus what these defenses actually need to be the best versions of themselves. So you just think that a guy like that. And Darius Williams, I think, is a really good example. Obviously, Troy Hill was a smaller guy that played that role for the Rams. The Rams are so interesting because they have these guys that are like hyper-specific players, which is by design. They find those guys that have hyper-specific roles, and they can draft them later, they can find them later, and that's the way they think about value. Because this guy can't do everything. I'm going to find him in the fifth or sixth round, but he can do one thing. So the ramps have these guys that physically are outliers, but they've been able to figure out how to use them.

So in your mind, those guys who we would typically ascribe as being slot corners, they're not necessarily as valuable because they can't be used in as many situations as they might. have been when Cole Beasley was the prototype. Right. When you're worried about Danny Amandola, Cole Beasley, West Welker, et cetera, et cetera. When those are the slot receivers that you're dealing with, you can go get those Darius Williams types and fill your entire quarterback room with those types, right? Because it's not as concerning what you're going to see. It's a little bit different when it's Marquez Valdez-Scaneling, right, that's in the slot. You can't just have some small guy in there when he's going on and rooting out-run support and things like that. So one of the things that, like, I was looking at in this draft class, like those slot defenders that are available,

Kyler Gordon, Trent McDuffie, Roger McCreary, all three of them, great athletes, great technicians, great cover players, and they all have one thing in common. Like you said, short arms, right? They're all, you know, sub-six-foot and all relatively short-armed guys. And that makes it difficult for a defense, I think, if you do want to live in that. Hey, we're going to be a nickel, nickel personnel team, 78, 80% of the time. You know, we want to play this no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, offense gives us outside of like very specific situations, you probably don't want Kyler Gordon, who is a very good athlete having to play at the press point in bunch when duo is coming his way or pin and pull is coming his way. That's probably not the best business model for you. You don't want Roger McCreary having to guard some six two guy in the slot, you know,

when offense is getting to those types of looks. So it does just kind of create a little bit of tension like I was saying. And I am very interested to see what that means for value for these guys. does that drop them into closer to like mid to late second round for corners that I think are actually like plus cover guys and really add to you to your coverage profile? What does that mean for the outside cornerbacks market? Right. And how much you have to pay for those guys. Do you have to start looking for outside corners that are Jalen Ramsey types that you can kick inside and have to suck it up and go help you fit the run, right? That aren't just going to be one-on-one coverage guys all the time.

So that's what I'm really most fascinated by when it comes to this position right now. It's interesting because Elijah Molden is on the other side of this, right? I'm thinking about slot corners from last year's draft that ended up flying well. And he slotted into that role. I mean, he has less than 30 in charms. Right. It's kind of wild how small he is. But he was also a third round pick, right?

So I think there's a sliding scale with this and like the types of bodies that we're going to see within that role. Right. I think the one guy I will say in this draft that I'm really fascinated by based on the tape that he put up is Jalen Petrie from Baylor. and he's another guy who's sub-34-inch arms. I mean, he's 30 and 5-8th inch on his arms, shorter than six foot, but he's 200 pounds, right? So he's got enough body, I think, to be able to stand up on the edge.

And if you watch his tape, he's able to set the edge really well. Obviously, playing with Phil Snow and Matt Ruhle before they left for Carolina. He basically played as a Sam Backer, moving on to playing for Dave Aranda and Ron Roberts, kind of played more as a nickel corner type. And I think that one of the first, he was one of the first guys that kind of stuck out to me

when I started watching and preparing for the draft because I saw him and I was like, that is the player. When you talk about play style, that is the kind of guy when you turn on tape and say, we got to have at least one of those types of players on our roster if we're going to be the best version of a modern defense, especially as teams get more and more into these odd fronts, playing more of these split safety quarters, quarter quarter, quarter, halfs, types of structures with the ability to still play man coverage if it's absolutely necessary. on first and 10 against a team that lives in 11 personnel but has that kind of power slot third receiver that it has some physicality that has some size what would your five defensive backs look like in an ideal world that's that's a really good question so if I have my the entire menu to go off everybody in the world is available to you so I would probably say I want Jalen Ramsey outside sure I need my I need my one on one guy I would say I would say everybody in the world is available to you so I would say everybody in the world is available to you so I would say I would say I'm I'm I would say I'm

I would like to have a Mike Hilton. I still think the value you get with him as a blitzer and a guy who can play close to the line of scrimmage, I think that that's very important. I want a Derwin James playing safety. Again, you want to be able to have guys who can spin down, play in the middle of the field, drop to a half, something like that. I think about Adrian Amos is the other safety that can do something similar. In a lot of ways, I feel like I'm building a version of a defense that's very reminiscent of your team,

their best defensive year in Chicago. You had Amos, you know, you have Eddie Jackson. You know, it allows you to do so much. Absolutely. I think about guys like Taran Johnson with the Bills, another guy who's very versatile. You can play inside. You can play outside in a pinch. Troy Hill is another guy who fits that mold.

So that's probably about the five that I'm looking at. You can do a whole lot with that. You can play single coverage. You can play your cover three stuff. You can do all the split safety stuff the guys in the NFL are doing now. And it allows you to be able to stop the run. And I know that it's not the sexiest conversation in the world, but that stuff matters and it has a great amount of influence on the rest of the way that the defense plays out. I just think that, and the reason I ask that question is because in an ideal world, you're still landing on a more traditional slot corner body type.

Right. You need that guy to be able to have some real physicality to him. Exactly. Even if he's smaller. Another really good example of my mind is K-1 Williams. Yes. He's 5-9-185, but he plays hard as shit. completely unafraid.

And that's the thing is if you can find that guy, it's really important, but it's just a higher bar that you have to clear with that physicality and run defense if you're 5-9-185 pounds. Yes, exactly. Those guys are hard to find. All right, let's get to safeties here.

And again, just kind of kicking this off with the question. And this might be an extension of kind of how we've talked about slot guys a little bit. Do you think safeties are more or less valuable now than they were when the Seattle cover three world dominated defensive football in the NFL. More or less valuable.

Man, that's, I will say more. I will say more. If for no other reason that playing more split safety stuff means that there's less help in the middle of the field, right? When it's Seattle and you're playing your cover three stuff, not the camp chancellor is not a good cover guy because he certainly was, you know, especially relative to a size. It's just different.

It's different when you're 10 to 12 yards deep and guys get basically a free release in the slot to attack you down the field. So I would say it's more valuable, but this is something that Nate has talked to me about that I 100% agree with. You still kind of have to look at them the same way the offenses look at slot receivers, right, which is that they are more valuable now than they were before, but it still varies based on what you already have on roster and what you think you're going to see from your opponents.

So when you look at, you know, some of the safety deals that I'm happiest about, you think about Jordan Whitehead, going and getting a guy like him for $7 million, that's a pretty good pickup. You know, you think about getting a Marcus May, a guy who can do a lot of different things at $7 million. Pretty good move. You know, I'm really interested to see if Justin Reed outside of Houston can find his love for football hall again a little bit, you know. I don't know if we got the best look at him last year. So I'm interested to see what he looks like at at $10 million. You know, and then obviously you get your guys who kind of break the bank in Marcus and Marcus Williams getting 14 mils. So that those are the guys that I look at and I say like, okay, you see that

versatility, the same way we're just talking about getting those power slot types, that wide receiver, I think that that position is kind of headed in the same kind of direction. So this idea of having more split safety coverages and having that blur the line between what a safety is, right? There aren't the walls between the two types of safeties have fallen down compared to what they used to be like, right? So you have to be able to do more. But think about just like what is asked from a post safety physically and how much range you

have to have to have and just where physical talent, explosiveness, all of that stuff, factors into that position compared to what it means when you're living in more of a split safety world. Even if you're asked to do more, what I'm leading you toward is, do you think that there are more of those guys available in the world? Because that's my thing is that I don't know if they're less valuable, but I do think there's the scarcity isn't there because you can have a Jordan Fuller who runs a four, six whatever, but because it's more about recognition, versatility, all these other things. I don't

need a guy that's truly elite in one category that I have to spend on. I need a guy that's pretty good at a lot of things and is very smart. And you can find that guy in the fourth round. 100%. And I also think that you can kind of see that reflected in conversations around Kyle Hamilton. Because if you think about safety, this is what I was bringing you to. Yes. If you think about, you know, the way that you think about Kyle Hamilton, right, the concept of Kyle Hamilton leaving Notre Dame prior to the combine, nobody could be convinced of anything other than, you know, this is going to probably be the best defensive back available in the draft. And then to still go put up a four, six, and basically nobody budges, right? There's no budging on anything. Nobody is looking away from the tape, you know, because if you turn on the tape,

what you'll see is a guy who can do a hundred different things, given whatever defense you're calling, he can blitz, he can cover, he can help you fit the run, he can play in the slot, he can play in the middle of the field if you need them to, he can play in quarters, you know, all those different things. So to your point of being mentally prepared to carry out the duties, and then obviously having that length, that athleticism, just crossing a certain, baseline the same way we talk about slot receivers i feel like i'm going to keep circling around to this right where if you just if you're able to get over the hump in terms of an athletic

threshold and then mentally you're there and you have that versatility in your in your toolkit you're going to be extremely valuable um and i do think that that kind of that maybe lends um to your art lends itself towards your argument that it's just hard to find those elite top tier adrian amos types that you know run run like the wind and can cover everybody in the world. Those guys are hard to come by. So if you can find a guy who can run four, six, like you said, and be able to play in the box, play on the quarters, get in the middle of the field if you need to. You can't say enough about trying to fill out the middle of your defensive players like that. What do you think, if we're talking about things in your toolbox,

arrows in your quiver, to add to value as a safety, outside of being able to play those have versatility and be a little bit more nebulous in terms of your actual position, right? It's just the safety. What is the one skill set that you think lends the most to increasing your value at that position? Like, what does Kyle Hamilton do that you think makes him break the mold? I would say it all comes back to recognition, right? I was going to use a blanket term that I hate using like ball skills, things like that. But it is just a matter of recognition, right? Like when you watch Kyle Hamilton, the one thing that always jumps out to me, and maybe this is why I expected him to run faster than the time you actually put up,

is that you can see the foot hits the ground. and he turns and he points and he's out of there and he's going to get to the football before the football gets to where it needs to be. And that comes down to your film study, your recognition, understanding your role. How do offenses like to attack you? If I'm in the flats and cover three, these are the route concepts we see. I keep coming back to the same teams that play in the NFC championship.

When you look at the 49ers, they played a ton of zone, right? But the reason why it never hurt them was that every one of their defensive backs knew, Hey, when we make this call, this is where we're weak. Linebackers, we need you to get to this depth. You're sharing the brain. It's crazy. Absolutely. It is 100% hive mind in coverage.

You know, the second you see a guy gets a certain depth, you see all kinds of movement happening on a string. And those are the types of guys that you're looking for at the safety position. Again, using the 49ers, it's damn near like they have five safeties on the field, working together. Seven, if you consider the linebackers, really. So this is why I think that safety and to a certain extent, linebacker, which you and I are going to have a more considered conversation about next week.

100%. This is why it reminds me of the way that we talk about centers on offense, where it's not that the value is depressed. It's that you can't see how they're valuable in its quiet ways. Right. If I, if this, if to understand how good a guy is going to be at the position, I need to sit down and have a 45 minute conversation with him, that's how you're going to be able to find players two rounds later than you might otherwise because their ability and their strengths

are more difficult to identify. And I think that safety linebacker and center, it's all the same to me. It's not that they're devalued in how your offense or defense works. It's that you can find them at a discount. You can find them later because it's not based on some outlandish physical characteristics all the time. Right. And actually, I love that because the first thing that came to my mind is Alex

Smack in Kyle Shanahan because Kyle Shanahan has basically just decided I will not run my offense without Alex Smack. I do not. Now that I've had this guy, I do not ever want to live in a world where I don't have him as my center. I think about Jason Kelsey playing for the Eagles, right, and what he's been able to do. Sex Rap. Yes, exactly.

And going to get those guys who have what you're talking about above the shoulders and understanding of the game, that calming presence, you know, all these different, you know, platitudes that we might hear from coaches is because this stuff is hard to quantify. If you don't sit down with the center, you don't sit down with the safety and talk about, hey, when you made X, Y, or Z player, when I'm seeing you point at this guy, I don't know what that means looking at it for my TV. But clearly, this has a value that you can extricate over the entirety of a season that just adds so much to what you can do offensively and defensively. So I like that too, using safeties as a kind of an allegation, excuse me, a comparison point between, you know, safety's wide receivers or slot receivers and centers. I can definitely see that. I was talking to a coach last year in the pre-draft process about how they scout and how they identify talent at safety. And they were telling me that when they're in draft meetings and they'll sit down with players, literally stop the tape half a second before the routes start to distribute. And ask guys like, all, what do you think? Based on what you're seeing here, what is going to happen?

Why is this guy going to go to this place? That half second after the ball was snapped and before routes start to distribute based on down distance. formation, personnel, all that shit. If you can identify that, that has extreme value even compared to how athletic you are. And again, that's only something you can identify if you sit down and have that conversation. Right. 100%. And that's what separates guys like a Marcus, that's why Marcus Williams can go get $14 million, you know,

and be, you know, four or five million dollars ahead of the rest of the market that was available in free agency this year because he's one of those guys where you can turn on your all 22. and you can see like, okay, there's maybe seven or eight good defenders on the field, but that one guy is moving differently or he feels like he's a quarter to half step ahead of everybody else. He sees it at a different rate than other people. It's like having a high resolution computer, right, where you get to that different frames per second. You know, you start the game starts to work a little bit differently for you when you have

that kind of clarity in your vision. 4, 5, 6.40, by the way. He's moving differently because of the way he sees things, not the way that he's been runs, gifted from at birth. Right. Is there anyone else outside of Kyle Hamilton that you think fits into this conversation at the safety position,

kind of you're viewing it through this lens as you're thinking about this class? Probably my favorite player in the draft and that's Louis seen. Like that is the other guy that I look at and I say like, he can do it all. And obviously like I am biased because of my admiration for Kirby Smart and, you know, guys off of that Nick Savant tree. But to me,

it's said, it always has said so much to me that as a freshman safety, he was being used in important roles at the University of Georgia. And when you turn on the tape, you see all the things that we're talking about. And, you know, I think that my first preconceived notion was that, oh, he's just a box guy. He's just a tackler because you see him tackle a lot. And you turn on the tape and you're like, no, he gets a bunch of tackles because he's always where he's supposed to be.

He always sees where the play is going. And he's able to do so much within that defense. And he added a bunch of value, not only as a coverage guy, but being able to come down close to the line of scrimmage and play in the box as well. And the thing that I've been kind of beaten the drum on that I've been telling all of my little draft buddies is that the gap between Lewisine and Kyle Hamilton is much smaller than the gap between Lewis scene and every other safety in the class. So I don't think that there are equals. I would not say that there are equals, but I will say the scene is much closer to being a Hamilton level prospect than any of the other safeties that are available. Because my first response would be that's why you don't spend a top five pick on a safety is that Lewis scene might be available 20 picks later.

Oh, 100%. But in your mind, there's a gap, though. It's not that there's a gap between what you can find in Lewesine and what you can find with everyone else. I believe so, especially when you start talking about the returns you're going to get while a guy is on his rookie contract. I still don't know, you know, maybe you can grab a guy like that at the end of the first round. If you're one of those contending teams looking for surplus value again, but I think ideally you would like to get a Lewesim guy, you know, in the second third round type of range. Hey, we've already addressed our number one need and we're just not going to let a guy that's as good as Lewasseen leave, you know, this position in the draft, you know, without being on our team. I would say if you miss it on Kyle Hamilton,

there's no reason to be shedding tears as long as Louisine is still on the board. It's the safety position, and I think it comes back down to this, is that it's not about value. It's about surplus and scarcity. Yes. Like if you can find a guy that can,

we've talked about this so many times. Top five picks, top 10 picks, you want to draft guys that you can't get anywhere else. Like Jordan Davis, we can have a million different conversations about value and role and fit and where the league is going. There is one person on planet Earth

who is built and moves like George Davis, literally one. And at safety, there are so many guys who can do the things physically that we're asking safeties to do in the NFL right now. And again, doesn't mean they're less valuable. It just means there are probably more people capable of filling that role. And I think that that's what I've tried to like drill in my head is that even if I don't want to draft safety in the top 10, it's not a devaluation of safeties. It's about the amount of human beings that can do the things.

physically I am asking them to do within the defense. 100%. I mean, if I ask you to close, you've been doing this for a while, if I ask you to close your eyes and describe the athletic profile of a safety, you'd probably say between 511 and 6-1, run to 4-5-5, you know, weighs this amount. And we could pull it up on mock draftable and you would be in the 95th percentile of basically every safety that has ever played in the NFL, right? Like, those guys are available. And then, you know, the biggest difference is just what we were talking about earlier is who has that mental acuity to be able to take their athletic ability and maximize it in a way that you just don't see from the other guys at that

position. All right. That's all we got. I am so glad that you're going to be doing this with us all the time. You'll be back next week. We're going to chat more about defense. I'm going to let you talk about offense sometimes. Like, I'm going to allow you to do it.

Yeah. I would love that. I love that. I want to go, I want to piss Nate off a little bit and mess something up. It's going to be great when you're starting to show him up as far as receivers and round combinations and protections and all that shit. All right, bud. Really good to chat with you.

be back next week and you'll be here all the time. It's so good to have you on the team. Thank you, sir. We will talk soon. Speaking of being on the team, I just wanted to let you guys know. I tweeted about this earlier. I am also going to be here for a little while. I agree to a new contract with the athletic last week. So I will be the host of the athletic football show for at least the next few years here. I'm really excited about that. I'm really excited about what we have on the horizon here going into year three. I mean, the show has only been a show for 18 months. And for all the support that you guys have given us, I'm just eternally grateful. It's been so fun to watch this thing grow and to

build it with friends and to be given an opportunity to really stretch our legs and do something that we believe in. And how it's resonated with you guys and the fact that you guys have made it possible means the world to us. I cannot wait to try out what we're going to have here in the third year with everybody that we now have on board. We've got some stuff on the horizon that I'm extremely excited about. And I can't wait to show it to you guys. So thank you very, very much for being with us every step of the way here for your support, for your belief.

It's been a really gratifying experience. And we are truly just getting started. So thank you very, very much. Thank you for listening today. We'll be back Wednesday with me and Lindsay. We're going to do a look back at last year's draft class. What can we learn? What stuff stood out?

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