The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Super Bowl betting extravaganza, part 1

Episode Date: January 29, 2021

The Super Bowl is still more than a week away, but that doesn't mean we can't already start talking about our favorite ways to bet the game. Sure, we're going to be playing the line, be it on the Chiefs or the Buccaneers, but this is the Super Bowl. There are seemingly countless ways to get in on the action, and no time to waste.In the first part of our Super Bowl betting extravaganza, Michael Beller and Vic Tafur begin discussions on the wagers that have caught their eye this week. While they're not locking in all these plays just yet, they are the ones that the guys are, at the very least, zeroing in on as the big game draws nearer. Will Patrick Mahomes go over 329.5 passing yards? Does Beller have a sneaky angle on the first touchdown scorer? Is Vic crazy for wanting to trust the running backs in a game like this? We'll get into all that, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hello everybody and welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. It is a Friday, a couple of weeks, 10 days before Super Bowl 55 is here between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers, and we are here to start getting you ready for this game from a gambling perspective. I am Michael Beller. I am joined by Vic Tafer as always. Vic, this is not the Super Bowl that you and I expected. We both thought we were going to be looking at the Chiefs on one side, the Packers on the other. That obviously did not play out.

I guess it's our own fault for doubting Tom Brady wouldn't be able to get two handfuls of Super Bowl appearances. So here we are, Chiefs and Buccaneers. How you feel in as we start looking toward this game a little more than a week from now? Yeah, I mean, it's going to be a great game, obviously looking at probably the two, it could be the two greatest quarterbacks of all time when it's all said and done. I just think it's amazing with Tom Brady. Everyone says that, but really to think that this year of all years, Everyone's talking about the COVID-19 and how hard it was, no off-season, all these excuses coaches make.

Here a guy comes in. Brand new team is back in the Super Bowl, which is absurd. But, yeah, it should be fun. I'm looking forward to it. Yeah, we're going to hear, we've already heard it a bunch, right? I mean, we've had a five days worth of leading up to this game. We've already heard the passing of the torch from one generation of greatness to the next generation of greatness. I think we're going to hear it a little bit more over these next nine, ten days.

And we'll try not to say it ourselves, but no guarantee. and tease. We're going to get things started on this episode here, not necessarily locking in any bets. If there's some that we have some big conviction about, of course, we'll feel free to lock him in. But really, think of this as part one of a two-part extravaganza as we build up toward Super Bowl 55. We're going to talk about the side of the total. We're obviously going to dive into some props. This is just sort of scratching the surface and getting ready for the big discussion when we do ultimately lock in our favorite plays for Super Bowl 55. That will be next week. we're going to start the conversation here.

And Vic, you know, I really think that we should start with the game itself. Right now, the line at BetMGM has the chiefs favored by three and a half. We have an over or under of 56 and a half. No movement on the line yet. This is where the line opened. The total has come down one point. Open at 57 and a half, down to 56 and a half. Both tickets and handle strongly on the chiefs and the over.

How are you feeling about this part of the game? I probably would never thought I'd say this, but I'd probably lean towards the Brady's. I think just the fact that they're home, I think it's amazing it's a home game for them. I think that definitely is not a huge factor, but definitely a factor. I think the fact that I'm sure there's a sense of their team of destiny, I'm sure that the players and the team think that this is obviously some part of some greater plan because look at these playoff games. The Saints game are kind of lucky in the Saints game.

Lassard you got to throw three interception and still win that game. So you can't say they're playing. their best and they've gotten here just by blowing out team. So I think it's kind of cool in that regard. And the Chiefs, I think, obviously incredible offense, but injuries in the O-Line, I think are a little concerning. They have two guys out now in the O-Line. I think Mahom still has some issues with the foot. He's not really himself quite yet. So to me, that also is in the Bucks favor. You can even go back to the first game of the playoffs. And Taylor Hineke and Washington gave this Bucks team all they could handle. And that was one where I really thought that they were

going to walk over their opponent. And that just didn't happen. And that game, you know, maybe a little bit closer on the scoreboard than it was in reality. But that was not a game that the Bucks just waltzed on through and advanced to the divisional round. So you're right about them really not having played their best football at any point of these playoffs. And yet they still find themselves in the Super Bowl. I'm going to go the other direction. I feel pretty good about the Chiefs here. I just, I just can't really find a way in which this game doesn't ultimately go in their direction. And I feel comfortable that they're going to cover the three and a half. What you point out about the offensive line is where I would get a little

bit concerned. We know Eric Fisher obviously not going to be out there. Chiefs don't sound too optimistic about Mitchell Schwartz being able to return for this game either. And that's obviously going to be something that they have to overcome. That's going to be a very hard thing for them to do. But you think back to the way these games played, the way these teams played, excuse me, in their regular season meeting. It was a game that the Chiefs controlled throughout. The Buccaneers actually made it interesting in the second half. But Chiefs went into it. of that game with a two-scored lead at halftime. Only scored seven points after the break.

So you do find some nice adjustments made by that Tampa Bay defense in the second half of that game. But I still look to the way that this Chief's offense is playing right now. And I don't think that Tampa is necessarily built to take advantage of what the Chiefs maybe don't do. I mean, you can try to take away Kelsey. You can try to take away Tyree Kill, as we saw last week, very hard to take away both of them.

And what I liked about Buffalo, I mean, I'm. I picked the Chiefs, but what scared me about Buffalo a little bit was a belief that they would be able to score with Kansas City. Obviously, Tampa has that going for it as well, but it just hasn't been a team that has been playing the way that we would want to see from a team that's going to take down the Chiefs. At any point, these playoffs, you and I talked about it last week. If Jared Cook doesn't fumble in the second half, late in the third quarter against the Buccaneers, did the Saints win that game? Are we talking about the Saints Packers' NFC championship game? I mean, how many things, everything that went wrong for the Packers was a massive thing that went wrong. How often do Aaron Rogers and Devante Adams not connect on that back shoulder throw?

And we're talking about four points coming off the board where they had to settle for a field goal instead of getting a touchdown. How often does Aaron Jones fumble way deep in his own territory? Every single thing that went wrong, the dropped interception for Green Bay and Tom Brady hits Scotty Miller and a half-ending touchdown two plays later. I mean, every single thing that didn't go well for Green Bay went horribly in a huge way. And that doesn't take anything away from the Buccaneers. They still earned their way to the Super Bowl, but it's the reality. So I still do like the Chiefs in this one. I think we're talking about a repeat Super Bowl.

And honestly, I might be thinking about playing this up to like five and a half, six and a half, eight and a half playing around with those alternate lines because I do think that we could see the Chiefs take this one going away similar to what we saw against the bills last week. I know last we talked about the Bucks and Packers. I said the one thing that concerned me, we had both of the Packers, but I was concerned about their running game for the Bucks.

I think Lerford Nett and Rallin Jones are running pretty well. I think it could be big factors in this game as well. I think that definitely gives the Bucks an edge over the Chiefs running game. So I hear you all those reasons are true about the Bucks skating by, but also kind of shows while they're a team of destiny. I mean, I'll never see myself picking against the Chiefs this kind of game because I love their offense. Obviously, it's so fun to watch.

I think my home is the best player in the league by far. But the only way I would probably do it is if it was Tom Brady in a home game, you know, with everything going for him. So I can't believe what I'm saying. I really am surprised. I might change my mind, but as it right now, I'm leaning towards the bucks. I also like the under. I think the under is also a good play.

I think we mentioned the old line problems that Casey has. And Tampa has some issues with turnover. So I think a number sounds a little higher than you. I think I might go in the under as well. Yeah, I mean, no one wants to bet a Super Bowl under, right? and I actually checked out the, it's no fun. Like, you're right, you're even in this year, you're going to be getting together with maybe a smaller group of people,

but still a group of people. You've got, you know, Tom Brady on one side, Patrick Mahomes on the other, two great offenses, two elite, elite, elite, out per crust quarterbacks. Like, no one wants to be sitting there and cheering for a 24 to 20 game, right? We want to see this game played into the 30s. I do favor the under two. And it just, no matter how much experience two guys have, no matter how great these two offenses are.

We see it time and time and time again. You have the two weeks off. You have all this time to prepare for one another. You have the defenses putting in all this work. And frankly, no matter who you are, maybe a little bit of Super Bowl jitters coming out. And teams start slow. We've seen it over the last few years.

Maybe the Eagles Patriots game didn't start slow. But that's the last Super Bowl. That's the only Super Bowl in recent memory that didn't get off to a relatively slow start. We did see Falcons and Patriots. hit the over, but that took overtime, and that took a touchdown in overtime to get that game over. It took the remarkable comeback by the Patriots, and you just see a lot of teams starting out slow in the Super Bowl, and 57 is a big number. We could start slow, and we could still get a, I don't know, 31 to 24 game, and we're going under.

So it's going to take two A-plus performances. These quarterbacks can deliver it. These offenses can deliver it, but I do favor the under as well. Before we move on from this discussion, and again, we'll have a lot more on this part of the game a week from now or a little less than a week from next week's episode. You say you like the Bucks. Are you talking Bucks Money Line? Or are we talking just Bucks getting the three and a half? Well, three and a half is pretty nice. So, I mean, I'm not sure I'm that bold. I'm still haven't really done all the homework and stuff. But just my gut feeling says, I think I said last week if Brady somehow beats the Packers in Green Bay, I'm on board. So I think I'm on board. I think I might even, like you said, might go for the Gus.

I don't go money line. But it just seems like the right play. I know the Chiefs are invincible on offense, but defense is not great. I think, I don't know. I just, I think it's a, I think it's a, I think I'm sure Brady is definitely enjoying this moment. And it's incredible to me that he's back here again so soon. All right. We're going to have to nail something down next week.

But as of right now, I'm liking the Chiefs minus three and a half. You were liking the Bucks, getting the three and a half. We are both on the under. although no bets placed just yet. We'll have that for you a couple of days from now. All right, Vic, it is prop time. We've got a lot of props that we want to talk about. I know you picked out some that you are in favor of playing.

We have award props, of course. We have some of the fun ones to get to wondering who is going to get doused with Gatorade and what color that Gatorade might be. Always one of the fun bets that you can make. Bet on National Anthem Lanks and First Commercial. It's all going to be out there. We're talking about some of the props that are available in the BetMGM markets right now. First, what I want to talk with you about, Vic?

It's the MVP. Right now, Patrick Mahomes is the obvious favorite, plus 100, Tom Brady, plus 200. It's going to be hard for a non-quarterback to win this, and that is also something that BetMGM is offering you. You can bet not only on the players, but you can bet on the position of who wins the MVP. Let me throw this one out you, Vic. As of Thursday morning, 49.3% of the handle that bet MGM had taken, so almost 50% is on Patrick Mahomes to win the MVP.

So that means a lot of people also, obviously, behind the Kansas City Chiefs. He opened as a plus 130 favorite, now down to plus 100. Tom Brady opened at plus 240. He is down to plus 200. And what we've seen is basically everyone else climbing up. Travis Kelsey started at plus 800. He's moved to plus 1,000. Tyree Kill started at plus 800.

He is now at plus 900. Is there any value to be found? Really anywhere here? I mean, Patrick Mahomes is obviously the big time favorite here. But at plus 100, there's a... I think there's just more efficient ways to spend your money. Yeah, I agree. You mentioned, like, people want to have fun of these bets.

And, I mean, it's a lot of fun to have been on Patrick Mahomes, even if it is plus 100. I mean, he's definitely fun to watch. And definitely, like, odds are you probably will win it if they win the game. But it's not really a lot of value. I find one that I like, and I'm nuts. But I'm going with my whole defensive theme. I'm going with Jason Pierre Paul, 150 to 1. I don't even know when the last defensive player was to win the MVP.

It's been a long time. It was a lot. It was a, oh, my God. Was it Rod Martin? No, it was the, oh my God, what was his name? Dexter, the Buccaneers, the Buccaneers, the Buccaneers guy, the cornerback. Oh, my God. Williams?

The last name, Williams? Jackson, Jackson. Yes, Dexter Jackson. We're close. Is that it? That was the last, yep, Dexter Jackson. That was the last Super Bowl MVP. All right, so we're due.

So I figured we're due. So I figure we're due. So I figure three sacks, three sacks, maybe like a force fumble, maybe even a touchdown. I don't even a touchdown. I don't even all that. Just three sacks. Even three sacks, I think I'm good. So I think I mentioned O-Line problems they have. He's been playing great.

He's been playing lights out this last month or so. So I mean, it's a fun way to go. I think, like you said, there's no real value in the guy's top of the board. I mean, Travis Kelsey seems like you always score. So he's pretty, I'd be a good bet, I guess. But I'm going with the bucks and the upset and the defense. I'm going for the long shot and going JPP. What a weird Super Bowl MVP that was.

He had two interceptions in that game. But Rich Gannon had that unbelievable. Rich Gannon was the MVP that year. He threw five picks in that one. And of course, he had the whole John Gruden storyline with being the former Raiders coach, now coaching the Buccaneers. Just a stray a blowout win for the Buccaneers. It was right, the defense against the offense.

And we saw the defense prevail in that one. And I think it is. Let me, let's look at a list of Super Bowl. This takes you in fun directions when you start talking about these things. And that's one of the things that we love about this, about having only the one game left, but it takes you in these directions where suddenly we're finding. Oh, Von Miller was a Super Bowl MVP of Super Bowl 50.

Oh, that's right. So there we go. We have a defensive player. Actually, we were wronged twice. Malcolm Smith was a Super Bowl MVP for the Seahawks in the, what, 2013 season 2014 Super Bowl. So this would be actually the third and last. Yeah, third in the last.

That was all the time. That was all the time. Three, it would be, this would be three out of eight years that we're talking about here if you're right here. So we're getting great odds there. It's going to happen. You know what's nice about this is what you always want to do, right, if you're looking for an MVP bet, you've got to build a scenario, right? You've got to play out a storyline in which it could happen. And that is something that can happen, right?

I mean, if you are going to beat the Chiefs, you are going to have to find a way, maybe not to totally stop Patrick Mahomes, but slow him down. We would think it would happen from the Buccaneers and their ability to get pressure. We saw it against Aaron Rogers a week ago, Jason Pierre Paul, an excellent game in that one. So I don't know. I think that, you know, at least I'm not going to join you on it if you end up playing it. Come on. At least you have, like, I would much rather do that than like try to find a way to back McColl Hardman at plus $2,500. Right.

That'd be tough. Yeah, right. Or Ronald Jones at plus $3,500. Like, it's going to be hard for end. any, just think back to that Patriots Bucking, or the Patriots Falcons Super Bowl from a few years ago. James White had an unbelievable game, scored three touchdowns. I thought he should have been the runaway MVP in that game. And it was Tom Brady. And Tom Brady had nice stats, of course. And that's, it's just, it's very hard for an offensive player who is not a quarterback to win it.

You really need to have like a Derek Henry style game on the ground or be the pass catcher who has just done literally everything for the offense. And it's hard to see that happening with the way these two teams play. So it does feel like a quarterback or one of the defenses. Maybe, I mean, Tyree Kill, but even just plus 900. I mean, Tyree Kill is the sort of guy who could turn two catches into 160 yards and two touchdowns. And that's the sort of game you need to have as a receiver in this day and age to ultimately be the Super Bowl MVP. So it's one that, again, I really like to just use my money elsewhere. It's a fun one to talk about. We'll keep on tracking it. We'll check it out next week as well. We'll see how where the money's coming in and how these

lines end up moving. Can't imagine that anyone gets played to a minus, although Patrick Mahomes, if that bet percentage keeps going up, maybe he ultimately does flip over to a minus here. But either way, it does feel as though it's going to be hard to get away from either of these two quarterbacks with the way that things have gone. I mean, we did, what were just two years ago, Julian Edelman won himself a Super Bowl MVP, so it is possible, but very hard for a non-offensive quarterback to take this award home. I was going to get that one. That was a game where the catch where we tip the ball himself, diving.

You have to have an amazing catch, I guess, where you can't say that's because of the quarterback. You have to stand out in a way where you make a play that was on a bad pass or a tip or something, but it's hard. It's very hard to imagine, you know, like you said, Brady or Mahomes not winning. That ain't, no, you know what? I'm sitting here thinking about that, wasn't that? Because that was against the Falcons. That was the Falcon Super Bowl.

The one he won was the 13 to 3 win over the Rams, was where Julian Edelman got his Super Bowl MVP. And so maybe it's something like that, but I don't think anyone's thinking we're going to get a 13 to 3 game in this one, right? So it's just, I like it. I like the scenario, but I like you getting aggressive with JPP and looking at the defense because not very many people are going to want to go that route. And we'll check in.

Maybe we can drive some JPP action. And next week at this time, he'll be like plus four. 14,140, 140 to 1 instead of the 150 that you're getting now. So I better get it quick before we move the line. I better, all right, get my going. I'm going to call this the line movers podcast next season after what we're doing here. But yeah, man, I mean, I don't know. Maybe I'll talk myself into one of these other offensive players.

But as for the time being, I'm finding other ways to get my bets in. Right. I'll find one prop I liked. It was kind of a weird one. It was 10 plus carries in the ground. for both Leonard 4 Nett and Daryl Williams. They each end to get 10 more and 10 carries. More than 10.

So we're talking 11 or more or double digits? That's a good question. If it was 10 or more or more, 10 plus, but I'd have to double check that. But either or, but the plays plus 180 that both guys get, I think it probably, I think it was 10 or more, 10 or more carries. You're willing to trust Bruce Ariens here? I think so. You look back in the last three weeks, Fournettes had 19, 17, and 12 the last three games.

And Williams is coming off two. in a row of 13 each. So they've done it each of them the last two, three weeks. So I think the running game will definitely be a part of the Super Bowl. I think there won't just be two guys going back and throwing the ball all the time.

So I think both those guys should get some more action. Yeah, I mean, this was actually a bet that I was in on last year in a big way. It was Damien Williams carries. And he was, I want to say it was like 12 and a half carries and he cruised past it. He had 12 and a half carries late third, early fourth quarter.

It was pacing just beautifully the entire game. And it's another, it's another bet that I feel like is undervalued a lot, because of the offenses that come into these games and the way we expect these teams to play and just really the way that the games are played this season or in the NFL in these days that we just really expect to see a lot of pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, and that's just not always the way that it goes. Right now, I bet MGM. You've got Leonard Fournette, 11.5 is his number on carries, plus 100 for the over, minus 120 for the under. So they've got the under as a small favorite. Daryl Williams has a nine and a half over under right now. That's plus

125. And then minus 155 for the under. So I mean, if you like that, if you like these guys, maybe you just take four net out of the equation and you just say, I'll take the plus 125 on Daryl Williams. That's not a bad number to get here for him. And I agree. I mean, they just haven't shown really any desire to use even Clyde Edwards Allaire as anything more than a guy who gets a couple of carries here. They had six carries last week. It could be a nice Darrell Williams show at plus 125. Yeah.

I like it. Let's take a look at the quarterback. This is something that we're going to get to. And this is one that I find very interesting. It's Patrick Mahomes passing yards. 329 and a half is the number that we have from BetMGM. 329.5 for Patrick Mahomes. passing yards. Minus 105 is the over. Minus 115 is the under. So the under a tiny favorite here,

I love the over, Vic. I love the over in this game. And let's think back to that game in the regular season. As I said, this was a game that the Chiefs were winning the entire game. And yes, the Buccaneers did make it close in the second half, but there was never a moment when the Chiefs were losing. There was a moment when it was tied, and that was when it was zero to zero. That was the only time. The Chiefs scored first, and the Chiefs led the rest of the way. They put up 20 points in the second half. And so they have this game script, right? And they've got a two-scored lead in the second half. Chiefs, the Buccaneers do whittle it down. But still, with that sort of script, we still saw 50 pass attempts from Patrick Mahomes in that game, 20 rushing attempts. We know that

this Buccaneers defense is susceptible to the big play, the deep pass. We saw it last week a few times from Marquez Valdez Scantling. Hello, Marquez Valdez Scantling. And Anytime touchdown. Thank you very much. That came in very handy last week. All this for me is just pointing to a monster Patrick Mahomes game. I really like the over 329 and a half for him in this one. How about you? Yeah, I see that. I think I've not liked the Bucksigand there for a while. They played it actually pretty well last week, but I think overall I definitely have some holes. Obviously, you can't, like you mentioned, you can't cover both Kelsey and Hill. I mean, it's just too good and they're just too familiar with Mahomes and what he does. So there's no reason why I

shouldn't go under that number. I think it's a good bet. Yeah, right? It's just, it's one that, that jump right out at me. On the other side, we've got Tom Brady, 300 and a half is his number, plus 100 for the over, minus 120 for the under. Any feel for this one? I think I'm staying away. I mean, maybe things change for me over the next week or so, but nothing really here has me wanting to play it one way or the other. Yeah, I'm with you. I think if anything I mentioned, like that running game, it's getting better with a four net and Jones. Maybe they try to run the ball but more often, so maybe that's their approach to kind of, you know, some teams try to keep the Chief's offense off the field. I'm not sure that's their case here, but I can definitely

see those guys getting enough carries where Brady may not hit that number. It's a tough number, and obviously this is something that's going to change as we get word on Antonio Brown obviously did not play in the NFC championship game. We'll see if he's able to go for the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. We'll have to imagine that it's going to take a lot to keep him out. I would right now bet on him being out. out there for the Buccaneers, but then it's what level of play is he able to bring to the table. So this is a number that I could see changing as we get a little bit closer to the Super Bowl. So I will say if you are feeling a big Tom Brady game, if you are feeling a big quarterback back and

forth battle, right now might be the time to get in on Brady because if we get good news on Antonio Brown early in the week, and remember, this is sort of a weird week for these teams. I don't think they practiced until Thursday. This is a weird week. Next week is going to be treated more like a regular game week, where we're talking about them. practicing a normal schedule. So we could get good news on Antonio Brown very early next week, and we could see that Tom Brady number pop up.

So if you're already liking it, now might be the time to jump in. All right, Vic, let's take a look at a couple of other things that we've got here. I want to hit on some of these receiving and rushing yard props, but I also want to talk about the first player to score. I've got a theory here. I want to run it by you, and you told me if I'm crazy. Everyone defers, right, in the NFL. Everyone defers.

You win the toss. You defer to the second half. The other team receives. The one team that we have seen have a little bit of a proclivity to receive, to say, we don't want to defer, we want the ball right now is the Buccaneers, right? This is the Bruce Ariens, no risket, no biscuit mentality. They want the ball. They want to go out and score.

And I would think that would be accentuated even more in a matchup with the Kansas City Chief. So I just feel as though no matter who wins the toss, there's a very good chance that the Buccaneers get the ball first. And so what does that have me looking at? Mike Evans plus 1100 to score the first touchdown. touchdown. Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette plus 1,200. Ronald Jones, eh, but Antonio Brown, if he plays plus 1,400, that's the sweet spot. Give me one of those three receivers. Evans at 1100, Godwin at 1,400. Antonio Brown at 1,400. I find myself leaning toward Godwin for no special

reason. I just think it's the Buccaneers that I want to isolate on as the team that is going to score first, and I'll take my shot with one of those three receivers. Is that a hairbrained theory? Am I thinking a little bit too hard about this? Or maybe is there something there? That's good logic. What's that what's Cameron Bray? That's the guy. It seems like Brady likes to go to a lot recently. Oh, man. Let's check out.

Let's check out Cameron, Braith. He's like one of the few guys who I didn't write down. That's the guy's going to score. That's my guy. That's my guy. Let's see Cameron Brate plus 3,000. So you're getting 30 to 1 on Cameron Brate to score the first touchdown of the game. I just made some money.

I appreciate that. I like it logic. I'm going to twist a little bit. I'm going to make it to my own. And then my guy is Cameron Brate for the first touchdown. You know, if you like Cameron Brate to get in the end zone at any point, he's an anytime touchdown of plus two, which actually I feel like should be a little higher.

Scotty Miller's plus 400. He's one of the Levyon Bell who's not going to play plus 375. Patrick Mahomes himself plus 300. Sammy Watkins plus 320. Those are the only players who have a higher anytime touchdown than Cameron Braille. So McCle Hardman plus 275. So anytime touchdown, I don't know. I would want Bray to be a little higher if I'm really going to buy into him.

But first touchdown, right? I mean, you never know. It's always, it's one of my favorite bets to play. I will say full disclosure, the first time I hit a anytime touchdown was the, or not anytime, the first touchdown was Colt Saints, whatever year that was, that was what, the 2009 season, the 2010 Super Bowl. Pierre Garsohn scored the first touchdown in that game. So we're talking 11 years ago now.

I've played it every season since. I haven't hit it once since. I'm going to be honest with you out there. So I don't know if you necessarily want to follow my intuition, but know that my intuition is backed up with something other than just intuition. I feel like if I hit Brate, you'll get credit for it because your logic got me there, so we'll give you the win if it's Cam Brate. Between now and next week, shall do some more research,

but it feels like Brate's been a much bigger part of the offense the last half of the year than it was the first half of the year. Yeah, I mean, they did nothing with the tight ends last week, right? I mean, you had the one big play by Rob Grunkowski, which was a huge real-life play, a huge first down that they converted on the little screen to Grunk, but really didn't get a ton out of the tight end position against the Packers last week. But I feel like you're right. That feels right that Cameron Brate was a bigger part of the offense in the second half of the season than he was in the first half. Let's take a look at some

of these yardage props. And I know that you've got some you want to get to also, but let's look at the receivers. I'm just going to run down a list. Let me know if any of these jump out of you. I have one that does intrigue me. We've got Tyree Kill, 89 and a half is the the number for him. Six and a half is the reception number. Those are both coming off at minus 110. Travis Kelsey, 97.5 is his receiving yard number. That's minus 110. Seven and a half is his reception. The over is minus 150. So a big favorite to get to at least eight catches for Travis Kelsey under seven and a half catches is plus 120. Again, all these numbers and odds coming from BETM. Flip it over to the Buccaneers. We got Mike Evans, 63 and a half yards, four and a half

receptions, both minus 110. Chris Godwin, 73 and a half yards. That's minus 110. five and a half receptions, over is minus 130 under plus 105. And then Antonio Brown not listed yet because, of course, the injury situation doesn't have them on the board. Any of those from the big time pass catchers on these teams jumping out at you? No, but I can see that if you were liking the chiefs to score a lot of points, do you want to go with Kelsey and or Hill. You might want to take them both because I think they can't both be stopped.

So you're looking at worst-case scenario, you probably push, and there's also a good chance you win both. So I think that might be a good hedge if you were going that direction. Yeah, I was surprised to see the minus 150 on over Travis Kelsey receptions of seven and a half. And, yeah, I mean, the season Travis Kelsey had season for the ages. We just don't see tight ends, even in this day and age, have the sort of season that he had. But, I mean, how many games has he gone over seven and a half this season, you ask? Quite a few.

one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, e, eleven. And that includes the playoff. So he's gone over seven and a half in eleven games this season. That has you feeling pretty good. And he has done it, Vic, in a one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine of the last ten for this team. So the minus one fifty still feels a little heavy to me. And that's, I'm not playing the under. I'll say that. But the minus one fifty scares me off of the over. Maybe if that juice comes down a little bit. Yeah, maybe. It might come down a little bit. But I think also, I know Devin White's not great at covering linebacker tied ends. I'm not sure with the other linebackers, but definitely seems like it might be a way to exploit that if they're chief. So maybe you even want the number to go up and the juice to come down. Maybe that could be a possibility also.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's something you could check out for sure. Buckingheers, as I said, Mike Evans, 63 and a half. Chris Godwin, 73 and a half, both of these at minus 110. Either of those guys, interesting to you? I'm a hard time with Mike Evans. Mike Evans, I can never get right. Usually I think he's going to have a big week.

He doesn't and then vice versa. So I think he's a hard of a guy for me to predict. But especially with Antonio Brown, I mentioned Brown's a huge X factor if he's going to play or not, and how big a role he'll have. So I think I'll stick with my guy, Cameron, Brate, and then forget about the rest. Yeah, so I like Godwin, and 73.5 is not a number that scares me.

But as I said, right, I think Antonio Brown's going to play in this game. And so this is what I'm going to weigh down. This is what I am strategically not playing right now, because I want Antonio Brown to be active, and I want that Chris Godwin number to come down. I'm not expecting Antonio Brown to be active, and then Chris Godwin's number drops 10 yards, but could it drop five yards? Could we be talking about a number that's more at like 68 and a half a week from now? I think we could be.

So this is one that I will have my eye on. I want to hopefully get good news on Antonio Brown, see that Chris Godwin number come down, and then we'll go ahead and jump on it. before we got recording here that there were some things that caught your eye not just in this market so what else are you looking at here that we haven't discussed already actually i mentioned the tutel i mentioned the running back play i liked a lot and i mentioned jpp i couldn't find the safety i've always thought the safety ones fun especially if i'm looking at defense is playing the uh the either team to register a

safety that safety happens in the game yeah those are fun yeah especially in a big party those are big talkers right now we've got uh the yes there will be a safety is plus 750 7-7-5 to one on your money. All right. I got to take that. That's going to happen. There's going to be a safety. So I think I'm leading defenses in this game,

I'm leading with the under, so I'll kill with the safety as well. I think that. Man, just going to play defenses across the board. I mean, you can look at, you can look at some interception props for some of these guys. You could look at a defensive player in the first one. Why not just go all the way with JPP?

He starts his run to the MVP by being the first player to score. Like a tip, a tip to interception. He scores. I like it. Yeah, something like that, right? I mean, we're looking at a Buccaneers' defensive player to be the first touchdown scores plus 2,000. So, I mean, I could just get you rolling right there.

All these sexy bets, I'm going to be rolling with the defense and with Cameron Bray. You got to love it. I'll be the unsexy side of it. You know that the thing you want to do in a Super Bowl between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady is just go defense defense. All the way entirely, exactly. I'll never see the coming. Let's jump in on some of these rushing props.

Again, these are limited right now. right now all the numbers that we have are limited to Daryl Williams, Leonard Fournett, and the quarterbacks. Darrell Williams, the rushing yard number for him, 34 and a half, the receiving yard number for him 13 and a half. Receptions, two and a half. The only thing that's not coming off at minus 110 is the receptions over plus 100 under minus 120. Leonard Fournett, I find this interesting. 50 and a half is his rushing yard number over's plus 100 under minus 120. So we're talking about the under being a slight favorite here. And I think that's just an interesting one to talk about. I don't know how I feel about it.

Again, you and I talked about this last week. I said I just didn't want to trust Bruce Ariens with the way he uses these backs. So I was just totally, you know, washing my hands in the backfield. Whatever happens with Leonard Fornett and Ronald Jones happens, I'm not going to have any investment in it. The fact that this number is sitting at an under of minus 120, that actually has me a little intrigued on the under that we would see this be as aggressive of a number as it is in terms of what the juices you're paying to get it.

Yeah, I think you're right. I think it's a good point. That's how I'm probably more comfortable with the four-net number of carries, but I am with the four-net yardage. I think you could, I'm not sure I was going to do. I'll give them the ball, but I'm not sure I was going to do with it. So I think I definitely would not be gung-ho about over 50. I think I would definitely stick with my carries and not worry about the yardage. Yeah, receptions for Leonard Fournette.

three and a half is the over is a small favorite minus 115 and they really have even when Ronald Jones was the guy quote the guy for the buccaneers you know Leonard for that was someone who they did enjoy leaning on uh in a in the receiving role out of the backfield so that's still something that I do think we could see and I'm just going to check really quick I don't think we have a rushing plus receiving yard we do now we do when I first checked earlier when I was setting this up we did not we do have it now letter four net's rushing plus receiving 78 and a half is the number, the over is plus 105. And I don't know, Vic.

I mean, if I was going to play one of those, if I was going to play Leonard Fournett plus 50 and a half, or 50 and a half as a small underdog for just rushing, or 78 and a half combined at plus 105, I like that a little better because of just reading the tea leaves with where these bets are being priced and the way that this Tampa Bay team has used Leonard Fournet in the passing game.

I find that a little bit more intriguing. And you know, you know, that they're going to try to have some rush beaters with the screen. And it's going to be Leonard Fournett, who's getting those screens, right? It's going to be Fournett or Grunk. We saw Grunk get the big one last week. I think we could see Leonard Fournett get the big one this week. Last week against Green Bay caught five passes for 19 yards against New Orleans

the week before, five for 44 against Washington. The first game of the playoffs, four for 39. Like, the dude can catch. This is not the same stone-handed Leonard Fournette that we remember from his LSU days and early on in Jacksonville. I mean, last year for the Jaguars, he caught. Where is it at? There it is.

He caught 76 passes on 100 targets in a full season with the Jaguars last year. I mean, this is a guy who the Buccaneers like using in this role. I'm really talking myself into all of Leonard Fournett's receiving props. Let's just line him up and knock him down. Yeah, I think he's been a great story this year. Obviously getting cut and signing with the Bucks. I think you get the sense that both Arians and Brady like him. They like having him involved.

I like him having a big role. I think he definitely is a big part of that team. I think he definitely could be, if they're winning especially, they kind of run the clock down. He could have a huge game, I think, if they're on the right side of the score. So, yeah, I think there's a good upside with Fournette. I'm just not sure, again, I mean,

you mentioned that the rushing yards. It's a little, it gives me a little bit stoppage, but I like overall. I like the screenplays. I like overall the number. It sounds like a good number. It just feels, I like the double dip. I like that no matter what,

as long as he's getting touches, you're contributing to that number, and I'm willing to have to get another 28 yards on top of what he needs. for the rushing prop to win, and you get a little bit better of odds. Plus 105 is the over right now for that, again, the rushing, just sitting at plus 100. Let's just really quickly, before we wrap things up here, and again, this is part one of a two-part extravaganza that's going to be wrapped up next week, so we are not done by any stretch of the

imagination when we say goodbye to you on this episode, but let's really quick just run through some of the other props. Part of what's fun about the Super Bowl, right? We love talking about the game itself. We're here for the game. We're here to see who wins, who is crown champion. But this is the Super Bowl, right? We like to have some fun with some of the other ones, as you said.

Safety, that's plus 750. A three and a half point spread. We all expect this game to be relatively close. Will the game go into overtime? That's plus 900 for yes. Obviously, we just saw a Super Bowl overtime a couple of years ago between the Falcons and the Patriots. Plus 900. Maybe if you think this game is going to be that close,

something to think about. Here's one that when I first started betting in a real way, Vic, you know, like probably a decade and a half ago or something, one that really confounded me when I first saw, and the odds are always like this for this one particular bet that you always get offered as a Super Bowl prop. Will either team score three unanswered times? And this doesn't count, you know, the touchdown and the extra point as two. You have to have three separate scores, touchdown field goal, and safety. It's always like this. Yes, a team will score three unanswered times is a monster favorite. Minus 2.50. No is plus 175.

Games don't go as back and forth. Even close games don't necessarily go as seesaw as we imagine they do just by trusting our intuition. So that's one that is very intriguing to me, especially with two offenses that can really get going in these two. It would not take a lot for one of them to score three straight times and still have a close game. So you like the yes.

you go in favor. I will say that if I play it, I'm going to play the yes. If I play it, I will play the yes. And I would, you know, I mean, do you want to, like, I like Patrick Mahomes to get us three straight scores at some point in this game, especially with the way that you can double up at the end of a half. If you really, if you, you know, you defer, you score in the end of the first half, you get the ball first,

and the second half, you score again. You know, now we're just one score away from getting it. So if I play it, I like the, I like yes as the play again. Minus 250, right? I mean, that's not what you would necessarily. think unless you have are a degenerate and are as deep into this as I am. Right. No, I would never think that. So I think I'm surprised and I wish you good luck, but I will not be doing that myself. Do you want to get involved in any of the like

the just total what, I mean, there literally is a coin flip bet, but do you want to get in the ones that feel like a coin flip? Who's going to call the first time out? Who's going to commit the first penalty? Who is going to get the first score isn't quite dangerous. a total coin flip, right? But things like that, like those are always going to be offered to you. Are those things

you're going to look at at all for this Super Bowl? Not really, but I will do some research between now and then about the anthem. I'll look at the anthem. I'll do some,

I'll break down some video and see the notes, how about you carry the notes and stuff. So that's a big one. That's always a party favorite when you get that going. Again, I'll be a smaller

part of this year, but I like the anthem bet. What else? The garid wine, the color of the gatorade. I don't get the, who cares the color of the garterate is. I can give you,

I can give you the odds right now that we've got for BEDMGM. So the favorite is orange. Orange is plus 140. Then yellow, green, lemon lime, whatever is plus 500. Then you've got, oh, well, I'm reading this wrong. So the next, after orange plus 140, you've got red slash pink plus 300. Then you've got the yellow, green, lemon lime plus 500. Clear gray white.

Not sure if this includes water, because sometimes that's in there. And we can reach out to our partners at Bid MGM and ask that. But clear gray white is plus 650. blue is plus 800, purple violet indigo also plus 800. See, of all the bets on the board, this has to be the most dirty one. It has to be someone who knows what color is going to be. Someone has to know this. They must tell somebody else.

Someone's making a killing on this Gatorade bet. I don't know how you find out who it is. You don't see any movement in these lines. They're very smart. There's no movement on the color of the Gatorade line. But someone's making some money off this one. I wish I knew who it was. But someone has to know the color.

I'm guarantee you. It's not a surprise. Like, oh, hey, it's blue. Who knew? You know, we should dig up, we should dig up in between stopping this tonight. And when we record next week, the Chiefs just won the Super Bowl. They just won the Super Bowl last year, right? We can see what Andy Reid was doused with last season.

And at least maybe that gives us a little bit of insight into what sort of Gatorade the Chiefs like. And don't you think, like, if Andy Reid's a Gatorade drinker on the side ride, it's his call, right? It's not like we're changing it up. and we're going to let you know, some backup linebacker choose what the Gatorade is. Oh, aren't there? Patrick Mahomes, right?

Maybe Patrick Holmes gets to choose. Like, we're not letting just, we're not going willy-nilly with our Gatorade. Now, there's probably different buckets. Like, just because Annie Reid's drinking orange Gatorade doesn't mean they're going to dump the orange on him. Someone who's in a no, may like, no, no, that's the dumping one's the blue one.

Like, it could be different. A lot of stuff going on here. A lot of shady stuff I wish I knew more about. But I would always thought was the dirtiest one. I'm sure someone's made. making serious money every office gatorade thing. I've got it screenshot it. I've got it screenshot it so we won't forget.

When we get back for part two next week, we will jump back in on this and see if at least maybe the lines have moved, although you don't really see the Gatorade bathline move very often. That's going to do it for this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. We hope you had as much fun listening as we did recording again. We're just getting started on this discussion. because there is no game this week.

The game is next week. Vic and I will be back with you to lock in some of these that we already haven't locked in. We'll see if Vic can talk me into jumping on Cam Bray as the first touchdown scorer with him by that episode. Next week. Until then, thanks so much for listening. Have a great weekend. Enjoy maybe getting your full weekend back and not having football to watch at any point this weekend. We will be back with you next week.

Until then, talk to you soon. Cheers. This was the athlete. football show.