The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Super Bowl LVII gambling extravaganza

Episode Date: February 11, 2023

Michael Beller and Nate Tice offer up their favorite plays for Super Bowl LVII. The guys dig through passing, rushing and receiving props, lay down markers on the side and total, and even dabble in some cross-sport props.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeToday's episode is brought to you by...Atlassian: For projects impossible alone, visit www.atlassian.comPeloton: Try Peloton risk free with a 30-Day Home Trial, New Members only at onepeloton.com/home-trialBurrow: Show Burrow you’re listening to The Athletic Football Show by shopping at burrow.com/mays and get 10% off your first orderAllbirds: Discover your perfect pair of Wool Runners at Allbirds.com todayBlue Nile: Find the perfect piece of jewelry for life’s special moments and save up to 50% now at bluenile.comBetter Help: Visit BetterHelp.com/mays today to get 10% off your first month Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hey, everybody, what's up? Welcome into the Athletic Football Show live from Radio Row in Phoenix, as we have been all week. Michael Beller sitting in for Robert Mays here with Nate Tice. Hey, what's going on, man? Just arrived. I just arrived.

I know. I got to experience the credential experience, which is a big part of the Super Bowl. I got to walk up and down the streets. Luckily, it's perfect weather here right now in Phoenix, so my sweating has subsided, and I'm ready to. actually start talking football and actually get with these picks. I'm actually finally going to get to do an extended gambling segment as opposed to just all right, hurry up and get your five picks a real quick and finish the show.

All right, we're not 87 minutes into things here. Yes, yes, yes, yes. That's exactly what we're doing here on this episode. I was behind the glass on those. We were pretty much at the 87 minute mark when we were getting to picks. And you can wait. You can wait. It was like as soon as, all right, boom.

Yeah. Get me in there. You got right ahead. We're getting right in right off the start on this one. We are going to talk through our favorite plays. Yes. Four Super Bowl 57. I think we could break this up most easily,

go in position by position. I like that. Start with the quarterbacks. Just a few interesting numbers off the top of the list here. Jalen Hertz, his passing yards over under, 238 and a half. Patrick Mahomes, 2.94.5. Jalen Hertz on the completions, 20 and a half. We got 25 and a half for Mahomes,

31 and a half attempts for Hertz, and 38 and a half attempts for Mahomes. Anything on these quarterbacks coming out to you for this one? Yeah, I'm staying away from the yards because I just, I don't know how the game script's going to go. I think it is going to be a run-heavy game script for both teams. I just can kind of see if I can go. Not because one team is going to milk the weed, but just where the defense is and how they are going to defend them. Sure.

But I think so, I'm going to go with completions. And I have one on each guy. I've under Jalen Hertz completions. I saw 21 or 20 and a half. And I like that because I think they're going to be hunting for chunk plays as opposed to nickel and diming. and so I see it more being like a 14 of 24 day for Hertz and on the ground and more chunk plays down the field going attacking with go balls. On the flip side, with Mahomes, I'm going over completions.

I believe it was 26 or 25 and a half. I'm going with that because I think it's going to be a, because of the zone that the Eagles run, I think it's going to be a lot of nickel and dimming, especially over the middle of the field to attack the linebackers. And so that's where I'm going with that. Those are the two quarterback wants. The other quarterback one, but it is, it's rushing. but it's a quarterback one is over Mahomes rushing yards at 18 and a half.

Not only is that he's a very effective scramble, he's had two more weeks of rest on the ankle. He will still do it. Four weeks, I'm like, okay, I feel a little bit better, high ankle spraying at four weeks, or merely three-ish weeks, I guess, but then as opposed to a week or five days or whatever it was. So I think the rushing yards, and I think also because the Eagles are 28th and success rate against QB scrambles. So I think there might be some ones there where he can pick up yards, maybe three scrambles and get that 20 yards. I'm feeling the same way as you, and this will hint at something that I want to talk about later when we swing all the way back around and get to game lines, which sort of necessarily

is going to be who we are picking to win this game, given where the spread is. But it does feel like a run-heavy game script to me as well with just the way that these two teams feel like they're going to want to attack each other, feel like the way the game's going to flow. I really have nothing on these quarterbacks. I scoured and went and went and wanted to find something, but it's an important lesson to take away. Don't have to force everything. Especially here in the Super Bowl, we got so much to get into. So let's move right ahead.

Running back props. Now, this is where I think we can start to find some fun stuff. Some juicy ones. Let's start off at the top, just level set here. These numbers, by the way, that I am referencing specifically from our partners at BetMGM. You're going to be able to shop around, find things that are maybe a little bit one way, a little bit of the other, but all in the same range. So let's level set with the three guys who we are mainly talking about at the running back position. Miles Sanders, Kenneth, Kennewell, Isaiah Pacheco.

Sanders, 60 and a half is the number for his rushing yards. Kenneth Gainwell, 19 and a half, 11 and a half on the receiving yards for him. Isaiah Pacheco, 48.5 for his rush yards. 16 and a half for his receiving yards here. I'll give you a little bit of a break. One thing that I liked here, Kenneth Gainwell under 19.5 yards. This is a number that he was under 11 times this season, and 19.5 is not a huge number, but I think we're getting a little bit of playoff bias playing into this.

The Eagles beat the Giants 38 to 7 in their first playoff. game. They beat the 49ers, 31 to 7. In the NFC championship game, as such, we saw some heavy Kenneth Gainwell. Usage 12 carries against the Giants for 112, 14 carries against the 49ers for 48. And if you look back over its game log for this entire season, it's basically been what it's been when the Eagles have been playing closer, more contested games. We haven't seen a ton of Kenneth Gainwell. When they start to get a little bit of a lead, we see a little bit more Kenneth Gainwell. No matter what you think Chiefs, Eagles, whoever's going to win this game, I don't think any of us think this one's getting out of hand in either direction. And I think that just leads to less Gainwell.

More Miles Sanders, more Boston Scott, under 19 and a half on 10 of Gainwell's yards for me. Okay, I think you just wanted to say Gainwell. So that's like it's, you're putting the vibes out there. You're just, you're willing this into existence. No, I love that. And then I'm going to the same kind of mindset because I do think and spoilers, if anybody wants to listen to it, it's not spoilers because this is coming out afterwards. Anybody want to listen to our Thursday preview show.

So magic of podcasting. It's amazing. We can be doing this whenever. This can be afterwards. This is after the game. So I'm going with, uh, uh, over. Isaiah Pacheco rushing yards at 49.5. I think it's going to be a, I want to say a run heavy script. I know I've already said that term, but more of a, they're going to look to run the game.

It's going to be a balanced attack, I think, from the Chiefs, especially with how the Eagles are going to defend them. So I'm going to go with 49 and a half there. I think the Eagles run. The defense is fine. They're more middle of a pack. Sorry, everybody. Someone just took a picture of us. I have no idea who it was. I was trying to ignore it. Yeah, sorry. Sorry, but I made eye contact out there. So, but I just think that the Eagles are middle of the pack, even after they added Linville Joseph and Sue and Jordan Davis got healthy. They're like 15th, 16th and Rush DVOA. So I do think that there is opportunities to be had there, especially if they get to have your personnel, which spoilers, once we get to receiving props, that actually matter as well.

I'm also going with over Jerich McKinnon receiving guards at 20 and a half. Again, you're going to hear me keep saying, I think the Eagles linebackers are going to be attacked by the chiefs. I think that that's where it comes in. That is the receiving back for the Chiefs as McKinnon. So a couple screens maybe. So I see that as the receiving guards. I really like that one. And the other one going with the Eagles, not just going to sound bad, but I'm going with another under Eagles prop here. I'm going Miles Sanders under receiving yards. It's at 10 and a half, but the odds are, it's not really juicy there. There's four and a half if you're feeling spicy with a little better odds out there. Going with that because Jalen Hertz doesn't check the ball down.

He targets his running backs one of the least frequent rates in the NFL amongst all quarterbacks. I also just think with blitzing, the running backs are going to be occupied by Spags as blitzes. So I just don't see the receiving total getting hit. Rushing total maybe, but not receiving total. You see that across the board with these Eagles running backs receiving numbers. Yes. I mean, they weren't big all season. They are not high totals that we're looking at in this game.

Four and a half. That is a ridiculous number. That's scary. That is a little scary. That's one catch. That's effectively one catch. I mean, that is an absolutely ridiculous number. When you can, I mean, you know, Miles Sanders is not asked to be or capable of being a Christian McCaffrey type player.

Nope. Nope. But he's out there a ton. Yes. They ask a lot of him, period, regardless of how they exactly ask him to do it. And so sometimes you can't help but fall backwards into five receiving yards. Right. So the fact that that can be a number that we can actually sit here and talk.

about tells you how the Eagles do things offensively and how we expect them to attack this Chief's defense on Sunday. Let's talk about some of those receivers and not just receivers, but receiving props because I want to talk about a lot of... One last rushing one. Also, Isaiah Pacheco to lead all players and rushing guards. Plus 285 is the number I saw that at. So that is one I also like as well. Sorry about that. How much of that is Pachko? How much of that is a Chief's play? And Pacheco happens to be the guy doing it. Yes. I'm just going to say both. That's exactly. That's a, game script that I have in my mind, spoilers again, if you listen to Thursday show.

I feel like I can tell where you are going with this. Yes. In terms of who is going to win Super Bowl 57. Yes. We actually, I mean, that is true, right? You and I are sitting here. It is Wednesday, as we are talking about this. By time people are actually listening to this, it's already going to be the weekend. Yep.

And so they are going to have heard who you predicted to win the game a few days prior before they ever hear this. So which is nice. That's true. I was afraid we're going to, like, spoil something. Because you and Robert, that's the big show. It is, right? That's the Crown Jewel. Yeah.

But everyone's going to have already heard that already. So, you know, I'm very happy about that. Travis Kelsey, a big part of basically every single playoff game that Patrick Mahomes has played in his life. No surprise. They are given how good he is. Let's talk about these receivers. Again, just set the board here. A.J. Brown, 71.5 yards.

That's where his over under sits. Pretty much everyone's sitting at four and a half receptions. Some guys are going to be juiced to, like, minus 160, where A. J. Brown is. Other guys are going to be down more in the. minus 140 range where Dallas Goddard is. So we can just keep those to the side for a sec. A.J. Brown, 71.5 yards.

Devante Smith, 61.5 yards. Dallas Goddard is at 48.5. Travis Kelsey, 79 and a half. Obviously, there are more guys who we can talk about here, but any of those four do you find interesting? Devante Smith is where I'm leading. So it's over-receiving yards and over-receptions. I'm pretty heavy on Devante Smith this game.

63 and a half or 64-5 for receiving yards. You can see shop around. Sorry, MGM. But also receptions. Like you said, I saw that five and a half. I think Steve Spagnola, the defensive coordinator, they're going to double A.J. Brown. I think that Bengals game plan, there's a lot of carryover, surprisingly so, from that A.F.C. championship game to the Eagles game, and that they're going to double team A.J. Brown,

just like they double team J.M.R. Chase. They're going to double team the slot. And I think that's where Devante Smith can maybe find some catches, find some opportunities, because that's going to be where the one-on-ones are going to be. So I'm very heavy on Devante Smith. And then there's some other auxiliary bets after that with some secondary players. It's been a strange run to the Super Bowl in the playoffs specifically for A.J. Brown individually. Three catches for 22 against the Giants.

Four catches for 28 against for the 49ers. And it's been easy to not notice it because, I mean, the Eagles are running by 30. Yeah, because the Eagles effectively haven't been challenged. But, I mean, you cannot find back-to-back games like that for him at all this season. And I don't think we can take too much from the fact that that's what we've seen these two games just because of the fact that the Eagles really haven't been in anything resembling a close game in the playoffs to this point. Is there anything that you take from what we saw against either the Giants of the 49ers?

A little bit. I think with A.J. Brown specifically is that teams know he's very good. So they know that they have to try and take him out of the game. And the Eagles defense or Eagles' offense is picture poison. So I think, especially with the 409ers, like, we're not going to let him dominate us. They get dig and explosive play after explosive play, so they have to matriculate down the field. So I think that's where that comes from. And I think really, I think Spagnol is going to do the same thing.

I'm not saying that he's going to hold him to 30 yards. But I think it is going to be a little bit tough sledding for him to get the ball. But he still might get some juiced up, some third and longs where he catches the underneath route, some screens, where you can get some of those yards and kind of pick it up. But I think all his overs are going to be a little bit of a tougher sledding. Imagine that we're going to see a little bit more from the Eagles deep down the field. It's sort of, you know, so much attention has been paid, of course, to Patrick Mahomes and the ankle. It's more recent.

It's maybe a little bit more severe of an injury. But we haven't necessarily, excuse me, seeing the Eagles offense that we were used to over the first three and a half, four months of the season since Jalen Hurts has come back from the shoulder. And I think that's been best expressed in him throwing the ball down the field. Three of ten on deep balls since coming back from that shoulder injury. It's so. it's frustrating for us because I read that he's played three games two that we've talked about here in the playoffs

and then the one against the Giants in Week 18 Giants didn't really have any plan the Eagles were just like let's get in there let's win that game let's lock up home field basic as possible right so it's like yeah part of us wants to take something from it part of us knows that there's not a ton we can take from it as well

and so we're trying to find a balance for that absolutely and another thing too is Hertz loves to attack outside like he's one of the top quarterbacks throwing outside the numbers like you just said the deep balls, but also stop routes and out routes that he likes to throw. The stat that I came across, and I'm not, because we already did our shell, so this is great, I can say it again.

Say it all. Get it all out there. I'll repeat the stats so I can practice here, is that since their byweek, the chiefs, so really with Steve Spagnol, you have to look at all their defensive stats after the by week, because he adjust, adjust, adjust, changes how he attacks. And the chiefs are the top defense in the NFL at defending outside the numbers. Success rate, EPA, explosive plays, first downs per attempt. they are at the top or near at the top

and all those metrics. They are very good at it. They want you to try and throw those 50-50 balls and they're actually pretty good staying on top. They're going to make it hard. Yes, I guarantee you one or two will get completed. That's the whole point of throwing those balls. Only with the Eagles win.

That's the only way the Eagles win. That's exactly how I see. Spoilers for that once we get into that pick as well. But they hit a couple, but that's how you can see that. But it's going to be, that's why I think it is, like that's the strength of the Eagles, but that's also the strength of the Chief's defense, surprisingly so. Yeah, I'm excited.

to see that magic is right right three of ten since coming back from the shoulder injury i think they got hit two of those they're going to win this game they got hit two of those right that's like under two they're not winning four they're probably winning two to three we're talking about the coin flip that the uh that the point spread suggests this game is going to be let's talk about Travis Kelsey okay let's talk about Travis Kelsey you're all in on them 13 playoff games he has played okay Patrick Mahomes okay these are the game logs receptions yard touchdowns is the order I'm going to say I'm in Starting with the most recent. 7-78-1-14-98.

He's got 14-198 in that game against the Jaguars. I know. I know. 14-98-2, 10-95-1, 8-961, 5-108-1-10-13-13-1-13-1-13-13-1-13-1-3-13-1-3-13-1-3-1-3-1-3-1-3. I mean, that is insane. That is a ridiculous run. That's carrying your fancy team if that was in a regular season. I mean, you're talking about a touchdown or 95 yards in every game but one.

That's insane. Out of 13 in the playoffs when theoretically you're playing the best competition that you could possibly see. And so I don't love going down Narrative Street. I don't love leaning on trends that are based on this, but the proof is right there. 79.5 yards, give me the over, six and a half receptions, comfortably give me the over. I'm actually looking at ways to get alternate receptions involved in this for Travis Kelsey. And so one interesting one that I am zeroed in on, Travis Kelsey receptions versus John Morant assists on Sunday. Grizzlies playing the Celtics, which is not necessarily the easiest matchup for the Grizzlies.

I love it. John Moran averages 8.3 assists per game. So basically we're looking at Kelsey catching nine balls. Do you see any of the Jason Kelsey, Travis Kelsey props? I have not. It's like I saw it on Circa on their asses. It was like, who would play more snaps. And there's some other ones, too.

And it was like, yeah, yeah. So there was like, who play more snaps, this or them? Jason or Travis, which I thought, I might do that. I might look at one way or the other, just as have, just I think that's hilarious. So listen to this. My dad went to the same high school as the Kelsey Brothers. New Heights? Suburban Cleveland.

Cleveland Heights High School. That's where they get the name of the podcast from. And so my dad is on the Alumni Association email list for the school. And so after the championship games, when they both won. My dad gets an email being like, support the Kelsey brothers. And they're selling, like, T-shirts with, like, the school's logo on one side and, like, the numbers that Kelsey and, Kelsey, I was going to say, Kelsey. Yeah, Kelsey and Kelsey and Kelsey. Remember that Jason and Travis where presently the numbers they wore when they were at Cleveland Heights High School.

I like that. Yeah. And my dad's like, look at this. Look at this. He's like, did you know about this? Look at that. I probably told you this seven times since both these guys have been in the NFL. I did know about this.

That's amazing. Yeah, my high school, we got some hockey players. and we have Rick Flair, but he got kicked out after his freshman year. So, yeah, yeah, so he can't really. He's not technically an alum of Edina High School. And also Adam Banks. Adam Banks, Cake eater. Yeah, we have the cake eater.

So we have a fictional character alum for our high school. The other Chiefs tied end, Noah Gray, one of the others. I have over-receiving yards. You can see it at 10 and 1 half or an 11-a-half. I think that there's going to be a lot of tight-ins on the field for the Chiefs. They've leaned into 12 and 13 personnel, two tight-ins and three tight-end looks this entire season. And I think they're going to do it more so because I think that's a good way you get after this Eagles defense. And so I think they go into 12 personnel, 13 personnel.

I could see him getting some checkdowns, maybe one over route where they're in that heavy play action set and he's running the deeper route. So I'm over on Noah Gray receiving yards. I actually, it's one of my favorite more favorite bets, which is surprising. That's Noah Gray. And also tying in Travis Kelsey. This is my one Travis Kelsey bet or Noah Gray. It's a tie-in. I found this at Circa.

I'm not sure if it's the MGM is. Will Travis Kelsey or Noah? have a rush attempt. This is perfect. Yes, that plus 220. I'm taking it. Maybe they say, hey, you guys want to run all those cuby snakes? Here's our version, too.

This is the Chiefs version. They don't do Mahomes on snakes ever since he got hurt against the Broncos a few years ago. So maybe get that in. Plus 220, I like the juice. That is an athletic football show prop, if there ever was one. There was. Right. I actually liked that one.

I was actually kind of like, hey, I'm going to throw a little change at that one. All right. I want to talk about touchdowns here. Do it. This is a bet that I love. This is a bet I've made every year. This is probably the worst winning bet of my life. Okay.

If we want to talk about net return. Okay, okay. I want to take you back to the, what that's been, the 2009? Colts St. Super Bowl. That's the 2009 season, 2010 Super Bowl. Yeah. Gambling's still pretty underneath the rug. We're talking about it, but we're not really talking about it, right?

Those sorts of things. You may or may not have done it. You may or may not have done it. And probably one of the very first bets I ever made. I hit Pierre Garsohn, first touchdown in that game. He was probably like 13 to 1. Yeah. Hit it.

First time I ever made a first touchdown bet. Super Bowl, boom. I've made this bet every year since then and have not won once. So that's over now, like a 12 Super Bowl streak? That's amazing. At this point, 11 Super Bowl streak, something like that. That's amazing. So whatever I mean, whatever modest amount, like 24-year-old me won on Pierre Garcone is way negative at this point.

By the time that 2011 hit, you're like, oh, well, there it is. The new CBA got signed. You have yet to, you lost all the winnings by that. But here we are, here we are, all these years later, and I still love looking at the first touchdown odds. Travis Kelsey plus 650, Jalen Hertz, and Miles Sanders, plus 800, Isaiah Pacheco at plus 850. A.J. Brown plus the 1,000. Jerich McKinnon, 11 to 1, Devonte Smith, and Dallas got her 12-2-1.

We talked before he went on. You're not really playing anything on the touchdowns. Is there any way that you would look into playing a touchdown bet? If I did, it would be Jalen Hertz, anytime touchdown, because even though. the odds aren't great. It's around even money, depending on where it's at. I just think that's like, yeah, I can see it. Minus 110. Yeah, minus 1-10.

I could see it just either the sneak because he'll hit those or also just low inside the five-yard line, QB design runs. So I could see that. If I were to bet on one, it would be one of the Eagles running backs or Jalen Hertz. So pick your, pick a name out of that hat. If you want to get some juice, go Miles Sanders or even Boston Scott. or Gainwell or one of those. Foster Scott, 4 to 1 anytime, 28 to 1. Mike, that would be one maybe.

I also see once they get to the red zone. They like to use him as maybe the screen guy. They don't do a ton of it, but, you know, they design plays for him and he's taking advantage of it. Yeah, absolutely. Travis Kelsey is minus 125. He also has the best anytime touchdown. What is this two touchdowns?

I was maybe looking at that. So that is where I think things get interesting as well, Nate, read my mind. Travis Kelsey is plus 310 to score at least. two touchdowns. And that's hilarious. Two touchdowns is 310. It's ridiculous.

It's completely ridiculous, right? That's hilarious. But this is where things get fun because, like, would you rather have a, would you rather be getting plus 310 on Travis Kelsey to score 2 or, I don't know, plus 200 and Mark Wes Valdes Scantling to score 1? Right, right. I'd much rather have Kelsey out too. Much rather have Kelsey to score 2.

You know he's getting targeted. You know he's getting targeted. Like, that's why your reception is such like a, yeah. Yeah. Like, you're just like, why not? Because, I mean, shoot, they're going to target them. Like you said, he doesn't get taken out of the game. Andy Reid's very good at designing the place to get him open.

And it's the Super Bowl. Where are you hiding? What's target away? We talk about this all the time, especially coming from my previous life in the fantasy football world. Receiving touchdowns are volatile until they aren't. And Travis, they are not volatile for Travis Kelsey. No. It's because he gets designed.

Yeah. And so it's like Jimmy Graham. It was like, oh, yeah, it's not like this is lucking into it. When you get 12 fade balls every week, it's like, yeah. Some of those touchdowns are going to, you know, chalk up. I won't be shocked if Devante Smith's career touchdown numbers year by year fluctuate, right? Five, one year, nine, the next year, three the next year. It's the nature of his game.

Yep. Travis Kelsey's going to do it, yes. Yes. Every single year, every single game. No, that's a great goal. And so that's what I like. I like to simplify things when we're going into a Super Bowl. And so I don't want to get involved in this player plus this player plus this player plus this player.

I want to find one dude, but this is my dude. Yeah. And Travis Kelsey, it's a good dude to be your dude. If there's one guy, yeah. And you don't like my Noah Gray is my dude. I took the other ones. I take it all the auxiliary players. So Pacheco, I guess, is my dude in this game.

So Travis Kelsey is if you're going to pick one, I like that one. Plus 140 on the Anytime touchdown. Compare that with A.J. Brown at Plus 120. Jerich McKinnon at Plus 160. You like it. Don't like it. Feel fair. That's fair.

I don't like that. What was McKinnon at? McKinnon for any time is plus 160. I actually kind of like that one a little bit. Also because they love this one play in the Red Zone where they have McKinnon leak a cruise. cross, they've scored on it before. Maybe they do a play off of that. Like they design play. It's all about who they design players. Like you're saying, that

touchdowns are volatile until they aren't because they get plays designed for him. McKinnon gets plays designed for him, and especially in the red zone. So that's another one I might look at. All right, let's wrap this thing up. We've been dancing around it the entire episode. The game line is you and I sit here right now is Eagles minus one and a half, a total of 51. The Super Bowl line is always pretty stubborn in terms of where it gets set when the game is set. It doesn't move at times. We've seen a lot of these teams.

The line is pretty sharp right away. You're going to get maybe a little bit of movement. You're certainly going to get something where it bumps up to, say, Eagles minus two, and it comes back to one and a half. But it's not going to be a wild swing, even though we have two weeks leading up to this. So we've been very comfortable with this line being where it is. Eagles, one and a half point favorites, total? It's 51.

What are you thinking on the line? I'm leaning chiefs. I even got it at plus two and a half. They came for you after you pick the Bengals and the age of championship game. They really did. They came for you, man. Mahomes is the MVP back in August, and they came for you. My God, I hadn't even wavered at all this entire season.

And, of course, I did. Gun to head right then and there. So I am going with the Chiefs. I am taking the points. I am looking at the money line. And even if I already placed this bet, because I'm just, I could see there's a narrative in this, and that's why you could bet on this. And this is why Vegas builds all these tall abilities.

But I did an alternate line. I did Chiefs my 7 and a half at plus 325. I could see. How much of that is the price and how much of that is because you really think that this one could get out of hand? Price, and it's not even getting out of hand. It's more control the game. And then there's that little field goal at the end. It's a 10-point win or something of that sort.

And I just see, again, we're already acting like we already talked about this, but I really do see that the Chief's defense is way underrated at this point. time, especially if you look at numbers past the buy week. So I do think they have good answers. No one's going to have great answers against this Eagles run game. But I do think it's Steve Spagnolo with two weeks. It's Andy Reid after a buy week. That's what we forget.

Because this is technically biweek. And Andy Reid is 28 and 4 after buy weeks, including the postseason. So even just money line, that's why I'm leaning to that, just a straight up bet. But just alternate line, I just, there's a part of me. There's this 10% path. I like it better at 10% if it's plus 325, so maybe a little bit more. of that, that I just see that they can control this game, especially in the second half, Mahomes is Mahomes, and then they have a, it's still a close-ish game, but, you know, they control

at the end. My favorite thing here is the under. I like it. We talk about you expecting a heavy run script on both sides here. Clock is churning. So clock is churning. We know what the Eagles defense can do. We know that they're going to find ways to get after Mahomes.

They're going to find ways to get pressure on him. You talk about the Chief's defense coming into this as feeling a little bit underrated. and I just feel like we're not going to see a game that has all these fireworks all over the place. It doesn't seem like that's where we're going to be the direction this one heads in. I think that's a great call, just Eagles running the ball, but also even when the chiefs are throwing the ball, like I said before, that's why I like the overcompletions. It's going to be a lot of short nickel and diming, which is basically running the ball as well. So, yeah, I just see that clock churning, churn and churn and churn and churned.

So I think that's a great call. Under 51, my favorite play. We are looking at so many things here. Thank you so much for being with us on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. the next time you hear the athletic football show unless you go back and listen to an old episode. It's going to be Nate and Robert recapping. Yes. Super Bowl 57. We will know all the results. First time at the game. I've never got into Super Bowl. I'm very excited.

It's breaking my vow, though, because I said I would never go to Super Bowl. Once me or my dad are in it. Well, if you guys notice, I'm working with the athletic and my dad's retired, so I can go now. So I can finally go and break that promise. You should have got to go. Your dad was on that staff in the... Oh, my God, 98. When lost to the Falcons. Oh, my God.

We, uh, not the, oh, yeah, yeah, that's where my childhood ended. I went from that, that, and then Alex Riga signed with the, uh, the Texas Rangers. Ken Griffey Jr. got traded. My childhood ended very, very fast. But that's what I realized, you know, not everything's a fairy tale ending. Yeah. I think my dad, my dad is 0 in seven as a player and coach in AMC and NFC championship games as an assistant coach, head coach and as a, as a, as a player. But look at it.

You always want the next generation to do better and you're at the Super Bowl now. Exactly. So there you go. Little Jack might have a chance. Beautiful. Thanks about for joining us. Doing a ton of stuff on YouTube. You know that.

You'll be able to catch the stream of the game, stream of the recap, excuse me, on YouTube. So if you haven't yet subscribe to our YouTube channel, click on the subscription link in the description to this show. Thank you so much for being with us. For Nate, I'm Michael Beller. Good luck.

Happy betting. Have yourselves a great weekend. Enjoy the Super Bowl. And we'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.